Category: The Conversation

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Viet Nguyen-Tien, Research Economist, London School of Economics and Political Science

When the Strait of Hormuz first closed in March and oil hit US$120 a barrel, a very old question came back: is this finally the moment electric vehicles take off for good – or just another false start?

EVs have been here before. They surged after the 1973 oil embargo, collapsed when oil fell, and surged again. Each wave died when the external pressure eased.

We think this time is different. In a new discussion paper, we argue that the economic case for electric vehicles is now improving on its own terms. This is because of what has happened to batteries, not because of the oil price. The same evidence, though, shows the transition creates new problems as serious as the ones it solves.

Why this time is different

Battery costs have fallen 93% since 2010. That is the number that changes everything. A pack that cost more than US$1,000 per kilowatt-hour in 2010 cost US$108 by late 2025, driven down by a decade of learning, investment and policy support.

Research on the global battery industry finds that every time cumulative production doubles, costs fall by around 9%. More buyers, more production, lower costs, more buyers.

Unlike the 1970s, this loop does not need an oil crisis to keep spinning. Electric cars have crossed lifetime cost parity with petrol vehicles across much of Europe; in the used-car market they now have the lowest total cost of ownership. Newer models even match petrol cars in estimated lifespan – something early EVs could not claim.

Global sales surpassed 17 million in 2024, one of the fastest technology diffusion processes in the history of transport. Norway is near-fully electrified. And Ethiopia reached around 60% EV sales share in 2024, powered by cheap hydroelectricity – some way ahead of the US, for instance, which sits at around 8%.

An economic platform, not just a better engine

The deeper reason this wave will not fade is not technical – it is economic. An EV is a platform. Its value grows as the network around it grows, just as smartphones became indispensable not because of the hardware but because of everything connected to it.

Every charger built makes the next EV more attractive. Every software update raises the value of every car already on the road. Every recycled battery feeds back into the supply chain that makes the next one cheaper. It’s part of the reason some other technologies like hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have struggled to get off the ground in numbers – the tech exists, but all the other elements aren’t quite there.

One study of 8,000 drivers in Shanghai found that range anxiety – the fear of running out of charge – has a real economic cost due to unnecessarily avoided trips. But that cost is falling sharply, not because batteries improved, but because charging networks expanded.

Making real-time charger availability visible could add 6–8 percentage points to market share by 2030. And because EV charging is far more flexible than other household electricity demand, drivers can shift away from peak hours remarkably easily when the price is right – turning the car into a grid asset, able to store and release electricity when needed. These are economic network effects, not engineering features.

Swapping one dependency for another

Ending oil dependence does not end geopolitical exposure. It relocates it.

In late 2025, China introduced rules requiring government approval for exports containing more than 0.1% rare earths. The leverage that once came from control of oil flows now comes from control of processing capacity and component supply chains.

The minerals at stake – lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and neodymium to name but a handful – carry their own geopolitical risks and, as we have written elsewhere, serious human costs in the communities that mine them. This creates a predictable cycle of social contestation that threatens to stall the transition unless the industry commits to responsible, sustainable innovation.

The metal cobalt traditionally helped EVs travel further on the same charge. And when prices spiked, so did research into making batteries with less or even no cobalt. Today, more than half of all EV batteries sold globally are cobalt free.

Four decades of patent data show the same pattern: higher mineral prices consistently redirect research and development toward mineral-saving technologies.

Recovering lithium and cobalt from used batteries is becoming economically viable too, shifting part of the supply chain away from geopolitically exposed extraction sites. In addition, Norway and other countries are looking to exploit new critical mineral resources to diversify supplies.

The transition is real – but not risk-free

The Hormuz crisis is a reminder of what concentrated energy dependence costs. The EV transition does not need it. The learning curve keeps falling, the platform keeps compounding, the economics keep improving. That is what makes this wave different.

What it does not do is eliminate geopolitical risk. Unlike oil, where leverage comes from energy flows, EV supply chains concentrate power at materials, processing capacity, and technological bottlenecks – supply chains that are highly concentrated and carry their own serious risks. Fuel dependence becomes mineral dependence. That dependence is highly concentrated.

Traditional carmaking regions are already absorbing concentrated job losses, and history shows such disruptions leave persistent scars even if the long-term aggregate effects are positive. Yet electric vehicle assembly is proving more labour-intensive in western countries than expected – requiring more workers on the shopfloor, not fewer, at least in the ramp-up phase. Contrast this with China, where massive automation has led to the creation of “dark factories” where there are so few humans, internal lighting isn’t required.

The same regions facing losses could benefit. But the gains and losses do not fall on the same people. That is where the work remains.

Viet Nguyen-Tien receives funding from the ESRC through the Centre for Economic Performance (ES/T014431/1) and the Programme on Innovation and Diffusion (ES/V009478/1), and previously from the Faraday Institution through the ReLiB Project (grant numbers FIRG005 and FIRG006).

Gavin D. J. Harper receives funding from the Faraday Institution (award numbers FIRG027, FIRG057 & FIRG085) ReLiB project website: https://relib.org.uk/

Robert Elliott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Electric vehicles pass tipping point, breaking the link with oil prices – https://theconversation.com/electric-vehicles-pass-tipping-point-breaking-the-link-with-oil-prices-280655

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Turns, Senior Environment Editor, The Conversation

This roundup of The Conversation’s environment coverage was first published in our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter, Imagine.

Every scalable solution has to start somewhere small. With a spark of an idea, an anomaly during an experiment or, perhaps, an empty seashell on an Irish beach.

Juan Diego Rodriguez-Blanco at Trinity College Dublin has found a clever use for discarded oyster shells – a byproduct of the shellfish industry. Remarkably, these shells can capture rare earth elements from water and lock them into new minerals. Rare earth elements are an essential ingredient for the green transition – they are used to make high-performance magnets used in wind turbines and electric cars, for example. So capturing these “vitamins of modern industry” by crystallising them into the calcium carbonate of the shell (rather than just sticking or adsorbing to it) is a reliable way to recover these valuable resources for future use.

Of course, this tech is in its infancy but it just goes to show, there are so many hidden surprises within nature that might, on the surface, look like worthless waste.

The Conversation is made up of a dozen English-speaking editions plus various non-English ones, including French, Spanish and Indonesian. One of the most joyful parts of my job is coordinating regular meetings for the environment editors at each edition to share ideas, develop collaborations and support each other.

Together, we cover the planet’s biggest story – the climate crisis. This beat can sometimes feel relentless. But uncovering scientific discoveries, breakthroughs and insights from academics all over the world gives me hope. Here, my global colleagues share some of their favourite – and most promising – stories from recent weeks.

Knowing what actually works

Some climate policies really do make a difference. Now, we know which ones says Lucía Caballero, Environment and Energy Editor at The Conversation Spain.

Governments deploy dozens of different policies simultaneously, such as carbon taxes, renewable energy subsidies and emissions standards, but which ones are the most effective? Evaluating and comparing the results of climate strategies actually presents a major challenge for researchers and policymakers.

After analysing 1,737 climate policies across 40 countries over 32 years, scientists at the universities of Barcelona, Ludwig Maximilian of Munich, Lausanne and Oslo, have identified 28 measures that consistently reduce emissions. Their discovery will enable governments to focus on really effective strategies and avoid wasting resources, making climate action more successful.

Read more:
Which climate policies actually make a difference? Our new analysis has the answer

Securing water supplies

In the western US, seven states rely on water from the mighty Colorado River, but a long-running drought and rising water demand have left reservoirs near record lows and cities’ water supplies at risk. Cities have been scrambling to lower their water use and finding creative solutions to encourage residents to make cuts, from low-flow shower heads to tearing out lawns and replacing them with xeriscaping (an approach to gardening and landscaping that reduces the need for irrigation). Las Vegas, a fast-growing city in the desert, has cut its per-capita water use by nearly 60% in the past two decades with steps like those. But as temperatures rise and the snowpack that feeds the river diminishes, we’ve wondered, can conservation alone be enough?

Environmental scientists Renee Obringer of Penn State and Dave White of Arizona State University recently ran computer models to understand what three cities – Las Vegas, Phoenix and Denver – will face in the future and how each city’s climate solutions for a dwindling water supply will hold up.

Stacy Morford, Senior Environment, Climate and Energy Editor at The Conversation US, says these results are eye-opening. This research suggests the region needs to start thinking beyond just conservation to much bigger solutions, the kind that Obringer and White describe that take years to build.

Anna Weekes, Environment and Energy Editor at The Conversation Africa, particularly loved a story highlighting another innovative way to tackle drying up water supplies. This time in South Africa’s dry Karoo desert.

Groundwater pumped from boreholes is the only water supply for many small towns. But as the climate warms and rain falls later in the year, aquifers aren’t replenishing enough to meet the demand for water. Surina Esterhuyse, Fanus Fourie and Danita Hohne are hydrologists and groundwater scientists who’ve designed and built low-cost aquifer recharge systems, drilling infiltration boreholes through hardened clay in dry river beds so that when it finally rains, the war goes straight into the aquifer instead of flowing away across the surface.

In the rural Karoo towns of Carnarvon, Vanwyksvlei, Williston, Sutherland and Calvinia, these recharge systems have been a huge success. They’re affordable and easy to implement at a small scale and offer a practical, scalable way to strengthen drought resilience and secure water supplies for vulnerable communities.

Buds, butterflies and bees

Gabrielle Maréchaux, Environment and Energy Journalist at The Conversation France loves a story about a free smartphone app called PlantNet. This “shazam” for plants, which is available on both iOS and Android, covers 85,000 species out of an estimated 400,000.

It’s popular among hikers and botanical enthusiasts. But what’s less well known is that it was developed by scientists and also helps with research by tracking abundance and locations of particular flowers, fruit, twigs and bark. It’s also a vital tool for monitoring the spread of invasive or “alien” non-native species that can disrupt ecosystems.

Meanwhile, butterflies, with their captivating patterns and colours, don’t always receive the attention they deserve, according to Ibrahim Daair, Environment and Energy Editor at The Conversation Canada. They are a fundamental part of global ecosystems, but insects have been declining at alarming rates in many places. Now, a group of researchers is working on developing a global butterfly index to track how environmental changes are affecting butterflies worldwide. They assembled a dataset of 45,000 population trends for over 1,000 butterfly species to help guide conservation and better understand the scale of the biodiversity crisis.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 47,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

In 2015, a mining dam in Mariana, in Minas Gerais state, collapsed and released about 55 million cubic meters of toxic waste – crushed rock, water and chemicals left after extracting iron – sending a massive, polluted mudflow downstream. At the time, it was the largest human-made environmental disaster in Brazil. After observing the devastated landscape, Sandra Moura, a professor at the Federal University of Ouro Preto, discovered a plant capable of accelerating the recovery process in the areas affected by the disaster.

But simply recovering the landscapes was not enough, and the professor decided to create a project to assist the affected communities by using beekeeping as a reforestation and income-generating strategy.

This story is featured in one of the episodes of the podcast Voices from the South produced by The Conversation Brazil, about solutions to the environmental problems facing Brazil and Australia.

While visiting the project’s apiary, Luciana Julião, Journalist and Audiovisual Producer at The Conversation Brazil, met incredible people, all with very diverse specialisms, who are working together in the search for possible ways to save the planet.

The coolest library on Earth

And finally, Sarah Sermondadaz, Head of Environment and Energy at The Conversation France, loved learning about first ice core library in Antarctica, designed to preserve humanity’s “climate memory”. With an average temperature of -50°C, Antarctica’s first-ever 100% natural sanctuary protects endangered ice cores from global warming. On January 14 2026, the coolest library on Earth was inaugurated at the Concordia station, Antarctica. Samples from glaciers rescued worldwide are now beginning to be stored there for safekeeping.

– ref. Eight wonders of the world – https://theconversation.com/eight-wonders-of-the-world-279159

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Cushion, Professor, Cardiff School of Journalism, Media and Culture, Cardiff University

With the Senedd (Welsh parliament) election campaign now under way, voters in Wales are beginning to see more political coverage across television, online and social media. Broadcasters have reported on manifesto launches and party messaging.

But how far is this coverage helping voters understand what the parties are actually proposing? And how much of it is being properly scrutinised?

After the first official week of the campaign, our new analysis suggests that while broadcasters are reporting party activity, they are offering limited scrutiny of the pledges and promises being made. That matters because news media play a central role in holding politicians to account and helping voters judge the credibility of competing claims.

We analysed all election news items across major broadcasters’ TV, online and social media output between April 8 and 14. This included Welsh coverage from the BBC and ITV, alongside their UK-wide output, as well as Channel 4 and Sky News.

Broadcasters have also produced special election programming in English and Welsh, from the public asking politicians questions in live TV debates, to exploring issues in depth through podcasts, or party leaders being interrogated at length.

Our focus, however, was on day-to-day news reporting, including UK-wide media, which most people rely on in Wales to understand what is happening in the world.

Covering policies not scrutinising them

Of the 60 news items examined across TV, online and social media posts so far, just over three-quarters covered party policy or claims. Of these policy items, nearly half featured no scrutiny. A quarter featured substantial scrutiny. And a further third featured brief scrutiny.

Broadcasters are committed to holding parties to account. As the BBC stated at the start of the elections across the UK: “It is an important part of our role during elections to check and challenge where the parties are making claims that don’t stand up to scrutiny.”

The BBC’s fact-checking service, Verify, could play a greater role in testing party claims, but it has yet to feature prominently in coverage of the Senedd campaign. Channel 4, by contrast, has stood out for going beyond reporting campaign activity to interrogate the credibility of what parties are saying.

More commonly, news items present parties arguing with one another, without independent assessment of their competing claims. In some cases, broadcasters simply set out multiple positions side by side, leaving viewers to make sense of them without any journalistic scrutiny.

This might be explained by rules on impartiality. These require broadcasters to reflect up to six parties vying for power at the Senedd and perhaps limit space for further questioning. But in covering so many parties within a single news item, the breadth of perspectives can undermine the depth of analysis.

Informing voters or amplifying noise?

Broadcasters have also sought to engage voters through vox pops, which are brief interviews with members of the public. So far, members of the public (25) have appeared two and a half times more often than politicians (10) in election coverage.

Vox pops can provide more colour and human-interest than just listening to party politicians. They can also offer revealing insights into people’s real life concerns and anxieties. But the focus of people’s opinions have largely centred on the campaign, the personalities involved, or about apathy and cynicism towards the Senedd and politics more generally.

At times, vox pops have also reinforced a “horse race” narrative, asking people how they intend to vote rather than what they think about specific issues. While this may appear engaging, it offers limited insight and risks misrepresenting wider public opinion.

As Welsh politics expert, Laura McAllister, argued: “At best, [vox pops are] pointlessly reductionist and a waste of limited political air time; at worst… misleading and potentially distorting”.

Read more:
Voters in Wales face Senedd election amid confusion over who holds power over what

Although such interviews with the public often suggest disengagement, they should not be taken as representative. With the possibility of political change, turnout in this election could in fact be higher than at any point since devolution began 27 years ago.

Rather than emphasising perceived disengagement, news coverage could do more to focus on the issues facing the next Welsh government and to scrutinise party policy positions. This would help improve public understanding of what is at stake.

Our pre-election survey of people in Wales found widespread confusion about the responsibilities of the Welsh and Westminster governments, alongside low awareness of party leaders. Recent focus groups conducted in south Wales by More in Common, a thinktank focused on public opinion and social divisions, found that many voters lacked detailed knowledge of party policies. They often expressed only a general sense that Wales needs political change.

Our own focus groups, conducted in February with people in Wales, showed a clear appetite for more policy-focused reporting over campaign coverage.

The lack of policy scrutiny in the first week of the campaign is perhaps understandable. After all, manifestos have just been published leaving journalists limited time to analyse them. But as clearer campaign narratives emerge and more political promises are made, journalists will have time to question parties and, where necessary, challenge any false, misleading or dubious claims.

With several weeks left of the campaign, broadcasters still have plenty of opportunities to hold parties to account and help people make an informed decision at the ballot box.

Stephen Cushion has received funding from the BBC Trust, Ofcom, AHRC, BA, ESRC and Welsh Government.

Keighley Perkins receives funding from the AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.

Maxwell Modell receives funding from the AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.

– ref. Limited scrutiny of party claims in early Welsh election coverage – new analysis – https://theconversation.com/limited-scrutiny-of-party-claims-in-early-welsh-election-coverage-new-analysis-280650