Probability underlies much of the modern world – an engineering professor explains how it actually works

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Zachary del Rosario, Assistant Professor of Engineering, Olin College of Engineering

Probability can explain why a coin flip has a 50/50 chance of landing heads versus tails, but it also can be used for more powerful applications. Monty Rakusen/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand Russell said, “Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.”

I teach statistics to engineers, so I know that while probability is important, it is counterintuitive.

Probability is a branch of mathematics that describes randomness. When scientists describe randomness, they’re describing chance events – like a coin flip – not strange occurrences, like a person dressed as a zebra. While scientists do not have a way to predict strange occurrences, probability does predict long-run behavior – that is, the trends that emerge from many repeated events.

Left: A person in a zebra costume. Right: A coin in mid-air after being flipped. A hand is visible with thumb extended upward.
We may say ‘random’ to describe strange occurrences (person dressed as zebra), but probability describes chance events (a coin flip).
Zebras in La Paz, Bolivia by EEJCC, Own Work CC A-SA 4.0; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Zebra_La_Paz.jpg _ , CC BY-SA

Modeling with probability

Since probability is about events, a scientist must choose which events to study. This choice defines the sample space. When flipping a coin, for example, you might define your event as the way it lands.

Coins almost always land on heads or tails. However, it’s possible – if very unlikely – for a coin to land on its side. So to create a sample space, you’d have two choices: heads and tails, or heads, tails and side. For now, ignore the side landings and use heads and tails as our sample space.

Next, you would assign probabilities to the events. Probability describes the rate of occurrence of an event and takes values between 0% and 100%. For example, a fair flip will tend to land 50% heads up and 50% tails up.

To assign probabilities, however, you need to think carefully about the scenario. What if the person flipping the coin is a cheater? There’s a sneaky technique to “wobble” the coin without flipping, controlling the outcome. Even if you can prevent cheating, real coin flips are slightly more probable to land on their starting face – so if you start the flip with the coin heads up, it’s very slightly more likely to land heads up.

In both the cheating and real flip cases, you need an appropriate sample space: starting face and other face. To have a fair flip in the real world, you’d need an additional step where you randomly – with equal probability – choose the starting face, then flip the coin.

Three bar graphs displaying probabilities for different outcomes. The 'Fair' Flip assigns equal probability (50%) to both heads and tails. The Real Flip assigns 51% to the Starting Face and 49% to the Other Face. The Cheater's Flip assigns 100% to the Starting Face.
The probabilities for different coin-flipping scenarios.
Zachary del Rosario, CC BY-SA

These assumptions add up quickly. To have a fair flip, you had to ignore side landings, assume no one is cheating, and assume the starting face is evenly random. Together, these assumptions constitute a model for the coin flip with random outcomes. Probability tells us about the long-run behavior of a random model. In the case of the coin model, probability describes how many coins land on heads out of many flips.

But instead of using a random model, why not just solve the coin toss using physics? Actually, scientists have done just that, and the physics shows that slight changes in the speed of the flip determine whether it comes up heads or tails. This sensitivity makes a coin flip unpredictable, so a random model is a good one.

Frequency vs. probability

Probability differs from frequency, which is the rate of events in a sequence. For example, if you flip a coin eight times and get two heads, that’s a frequency of 25%. Even if the probability of flipping a coin and seeing heads is 50% over the long run, each short sequence of flips will come out different. Four heads and four tails is the most probable outcome from eight flips, but other events can – and will – happen.

Frequency and probability are the same in one special setting: when the number of data points goes to infinity. In this sense, probability tells us about long-run behavior.

A bar chart of probabilities for all possible outcomes of eight 'fair' coin flips. Four heads has the highest probability (~27%), and the distribution is symmetric around four heads.
Probabilities for all possible outcomes of eight ‘fair’ coin flips.
Zachary del Rosario, CC BY-SA

Applications to AI, cryptography and statistics

Probability isn’t just useful for predicting coin flips. It underlies many modern technological systems.

For example, AI systems such as large language models, or LLMs, are based on next-word prediction. Essentially, they compute a probability for the words that follow your prompt. For example, with the prompt “New York” you might get “City” or “State” as the predicted next word, because in the training data those are the words that most frequently follow.

But since probability describes randomness, the outputs of a LLM are random. Just like a sequence of coin flips is not guaranteed to come out the same way every time, if you ask an LLM the same question again, you will tend to get a different response. Effectively, each next word is treated like a new coin flip.

Randomness is also key to cryptography: the science of securing information. Cryptographic communication uses a shared secret, such as a password, to secure information. However, surprising randomness isn’t good enough for security, which is why picking a surprising word is a bad choice of password. A shared secret is only secure if it’s hard to guess. Even if a word is surprising, real words are easier to guess than flipping a “coin” for each letter.

You can make a much stronger password by using probability to choose characters at random on your keyboard – or better yet, use a password manager.

Finally, randomness is key in statistics. Statisticians are responsible for designing and analyzing studies to make use of limited data. This practice is especially important when studying medical treatments, because every data point represents a person’s life.

The gold standard is a randomized controlled trial. Participants are assigned to receive the new treatment or the current standard of care based on a fair coin flip. It may seem strange to do this assignment randomly – using coin flips to make decisions about lives. However, the unpredictability serves an important role, as it ensures that nothing about the person affects their chance to get the treatment: not age, gender, race, income or any other factor. The unpredictability helps scientists ensure that only the treatment causes the observed result and not any other factor.

So what does probability mean? Like any kind of math, it’s only a model, meaning it can’t perfectly describe the world. In the examples discussed, probability is useful for describing long-term behaviors and using unpredictability to solve practical problems.

The Conversation

Zachary del Rosario has received funding from the National Science Foundation and Toyota Research Institute.

ref. Probability underlies much of the modern world – an engineering professor explains how it actually works – https://theconversation.com/probability-underlies-much-of-the-modern-world-an-engineering-professor-explains-how-it-actually-works-273332

Enforcing Prohibition with a massive new federal force of poorly trained agents didn’t go so well in the 1920s

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Richard F. Hamm, Professor of History, University at Albany, State University of New York

Coast Guardsmen stand in front of two truckloads of liquor seized on April 14, 1931, after a battle between three policemen and several alcohol smugglers near Falmouth, Mass. AP Photo

As the actions of agents with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement come under intense scrutiny, it’s worth noting that a little more than 100 years ago, another expansion of federal policing – to enforce national Prohibition – also sparked nationwide concern.

As a U.S. history scholar, I know both the government agencies charged with enforcing national Prohibition in the early 20th century and with mass deportation in the early 21st century were hastily expanded. They were asked to achieve difficult objectives and were staffed by sometimes poorly trained people who at times resorted to violence.

National prohibition enforcement

When Congress approved the Volstead Act in 1919 that outlawed the manufacture, sale and transportation of alcoholic liquors, it purposely limited the number of Prohibition enforcement officials due to pressure from powerful dry lobbying groups, which supported the prohibition of alcohol sales and consumption. These groups thought the majority of the Prohibition policing would be done by states.

The Volstead Act also exempted Prohibition agents from civil service laws, which would have required job applicants to pass certain minimum standards. The exemption was written into the law because the prohibitionist lobby only trusted committed “drys” – people resolutely dedicated to maintaining an alcohol-free society – to do the enforcing, and they thought that they would control the appointments.

For the first years of Prohibition, the Bureau of Prohibition belonged to a division of the Bureau of Internal Revenue – some were converted alcohol tax collectors. Then they became part of the Bureau of Prohibition in the Treasury Department. And in 1930, they moved to the Department of Justice.

These moves to various bureaus and departments reflected attempts to curtail corruption, reduce the influence of the prohibitionists on staffing, and increase effectiveness. Despite the moves, funding and training for Prohibition agents never improved. Additionally, in an effort to cut government spending during the Great Depression, the Herbert Hoover administration cut Prohibition agents’ per diem pay from US$6 to $5.

The initial group of Prohibition agents were either committed prohibitionists or “political hacks with little law enforcement experience,” according to author W. J. Rorabaugh. The hacks, Rorabaugh wrote, soon outnumbered the prohibitionists.

Several men dump beer from kegs into a lake.
Prohibition agents dump beer into Lake Michigan in Chicago on Oct. 9, 1919.
Bettmann/Getty Images

In 1927, Federal Circuit Judge William S. Keynon said that “three-fourths of the 2,500 dry agents are ward heelers and sycophants named by the politicians.” The assistant attorney general in charge of Prohibition enforcement, Mabel Walker Willebrandt, said that Prohibition agents were “as devoid of honesty and integrity” as those who violated Prohibition laws.

When Prohibition agents were placed under the civil service, 60% of them failed their civil service tests. In a six-year period beginning in 1920, 752 Prohibition officials lost their jobs for delinquency or misconduct. Drunkenness and bribery were the two main reasons for dismissal.

In 1930, the 1,450 front-line Prohibition agents dwarfed the 350 FBI field agents across the country. They were the largest federal law enforcement body, and they were busy.

From 1921 to 1930, they averaged over a half-million arrests per year. They seized over 45,000 automobiles, and by their own account, Prohibition agents killed 89 people.

However, the Association Against the Prohibition Amendment calculated that about 1,000 people were killed in enforcing Prohibition.

Endemic violence

Federal officials authorized Prohibition agents’ use of violence. One official told U.S. Sen. Wesley Jones, a strong prohibitionist, that some bootleggers “deserve a good killing, and I am not losing any sleep if now and then a bootlegger is killed.”

But Prohibition agents did not just shoot criminals. The Washington Herald detailed in 1929 a pattern of reckless use of force, with prohibition agents shooting at the tires of escaping cars and accidentally firing weapons. In 1924, within blocks of the U.S. Capitol, a Prohibition agent who was firing at a fleeing car carrying a bootlegger accidentally shot Sen. Frank L. Greene of Vermont. Greene, wounded in the head, never fully recovered the use of one arm.

The author Daniel Okrent illustrated the link between trigger-happy officers and shoddy recruitment and training when he detailed the case of “the first agent to kill a suspect bootlegger in the line of duty.” The Prohibition agent had been accepted into service under a false name. He was not a stranger to killing, as he had killed a man when he was 14. He had also served multiple prison terms. Indeed, he was given his badge when “still incarcerated at Dannemora State Prison,” according to Okrent.

A man dressed in military gear throws a tear gas canister in the air.
A federal agent lobs a tear gas canister toward protesters in Minneapolis on Jan. 24, 2026.
Kerem Yucel/ AFP via Getty Images

The parallels between Prohibition and the Trump administration’s mass deportation tactics are not identical. Prohibition was more unpopular in much of the country compared with mass deportation. And Congress was not willing to adequately pay for Prohibition enforcement, while it has generously funded ICE.

Several reports detail ICE’s recent massive expansion. In early January 2026, the agency announced it grew by 120%, adding 12,000 agents to the existing force of 10,000, which raised concerns among lawmakers about lowered training standards to meet recruitment targets. Other accounts reveal lax vetting, insufficient training and past officer misconduct.

But both efforts share important similarities. They were hastily built, with agents who were asked to do something very difficult, and staffed by sometimes poorly trained people who were authorized to use force.

The Conversation

Richard F. Hamm does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Enforcing Prohibition with a massive new federal force of poorly trained agents didn’t go so well in the 1920s – https://theconversation.com/enforcing-prohibition-with-a-massive-new-federal-force-of-poorly-trained-agents-didnt-go-so-well-in-the-1920s-276258

Individual donors provide only a small slice of university research funding – but Jeffrey Epstein’s ties with academics show why screening matters

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Brian Herman, Vice President for Research, University of Minnesota

The recent release of Jeffrey Epstein’s emails shows a wide net of contacts – including academics at prominent universities. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Yale University, Columbia University and the University of California, Los Angeles are among the schools that have recently placed professors on leave, seen faculty resign or made other changes over faculty members’ ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

The University of Arizona, for example, canceled a science conference scheduled for April 2026, following the news that several speakers and organizers were named in the Epstein files. Astrobiologist Stuart Hameroff, for example, wrote on the social platform X on Feb. 6, 2026, that he “obtained one-time funding” for a conference from Epstein.

Bard College’s president, Leon Botstein, is among other academic leaders and researchers who have said that they met with Epstein for fundraising purposes – though, as The New York Times reports, Epstein rarely delivered on the money he promised for research and other purposes.

“There is a tremendous drive to acquire money to support the work of faculty and staff. The pressure has always been there – but you can still approach that in an ethically and morally acceptable way,” said Brian Herman, a former vice president for research at the University of Minnesota, in an interview that has been edited for length and clarity.

Amy Lieberman, the education editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with Herman to understand how philanthropy for colleges and universities works, and what standards and safeguards are in place to help ensure that this money is given in an ethical manner.

A graphic shows cartoon people building different things and standing on ladders, near a large dollar sign.
Universities across the country are under pressure to fund research – and, in return, improve or maintain their college rankings.
iStock/Getty Images Plus

How is research at universities typically funded?

Funding to support university research comes from a variety of different sources.

Most university research funding – approximately 53%-55% of that supportcomes from the federal government, like the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation.

About 8% of total funding comes from a number of private foundations and nonprofits, like the American Cancer Society.

Universities can also request that state and federal legislators allocate funding in their yearly appropriations bills for research. This involves negotiations between universities and their state and federal legislators. State and local agencies provide about 5% of total university research funding.

Universities themselves fund between 25%-26% of research, and businesses give 6%.

Other sources of funding, including individual donors, account for about 3% of the money that funds university research.

These individuals might be alumni of the university, have another kind of connection to the school or are personally interested in a specific area of expertise of the university. Or, they could be grateful patients who had medical issues solved by the university’s medical school.

How do universities connect with private donors?

Universities typically have fundraising offices that oversee relationships with donors.

Donor and university partnerships involve significant negotiations about how the money will be invested. Universities typically will work with faculty members with expertise in the area of research a donor wants to support and put together a research proposal. The prospective donor then reviews the plan and decides whether they want to support the research.

After universities receive and invest a donation, they give donors a progress report on the investment.

Private donors give money to the university, and not to an individual faculty member. This allows proper accounting and controls on how the money is used, to make sure they support the intended research and adhere to university policies.

How do universities screen donors for conflicts of interest, for example?

All universities have compliance offices that set up a compendium of policies that guide how they accept private funding.

The schools try to make sure there is no financial conflict of interest for the donor, researcher or institution – or a conflict of interest between people performing the research and those providing the funding.

There is practically always a need to strike a balance between managing potential conflicts appropriately and being able to obtain the resources necessary for a university to conduct its work.

Do universities typically screen for donors who have committed a crime?

Most universities screen potential donors.

The larger the dollar amount in question, the more substantive the screening is. Many universities have policies on this issue. It is likely that universities will strengthen these policies based on recent events related to the Epstein case. They will want to become more stringent with screening to make sure that their donors are not morally compromised.

For example, universities can conduct background checks on potential donors.

But if the donation is small, it is possible that a university would not conduct a background check. So, a faculty member could seek $5,000 for a conference and approach a donor individually and not involve the rest of the university in the donation.

How could the Epstein case influence how universities screen donors?

I expect that universities will enact more policies and procedures that guard against a situation like what we are seeing in the Epstein files. Universities may require more substantive checks on all donations independent of size and source. They are also likely to carry out more training of faculty, staff and administrators on how to secure individual donor support.

If universities have not already done so, I think they should instruct faculty members not to directly contact a donor or legislator on behalf of the university. They should also increase the penalties for university employees who do not comply with this policy.

In some cases, researchers may have an idea that is not aligned strategically with how the university is raising philanthropic funds. They may go looking for their own money. This doesn’t happen a lot, but it does happen, and universities will have to become more vigilant about these types of situations.

In reality, money is necessary to do most everything at universities, including paying faculty and staff, purchasing research supplies and even keeping the lights on in the research labs. Money is also a metric that is used as a measure of success and the ranking of a university – meaning, getting more money can lead to a higher ranking.

University leaders are facing natural pressure to raise money. There is a tremendous drive to acquire money to support the work of faculty and staff. This can create significant pressure to acquire funding – but this must always be done in an ethically and morally appropriate way.

The Conversation

Brian Herman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Individual donors provide only a small slice of university research funding – but Jeffrey Epstein’s ties with academics show why screening matters – https://theconversation.com/individual-donors-provide-only-a-small-slice-of-university-research-funding-but-jeffrey-epsteins-ties-with-academics-show-why-screening-matters-276345

How Dracula became a red-hot lover

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Stanley Stepanic, Assistant Professor of Slavic Languages and Literatures, University of Virginia

In Luc Besson’s ‘Dracula,’ the titular character is a hopeless romantic. Vertical

The Lord of Vampires. The King of the Undead. The Ultimate Lover. All refer to the immortal Count Dracula, who originally appeared in Bram Stoker’s 1897 novel.

Yet the character’s fame has sprung more from his 200-plus cinematic resurrections, beginning with “Dracula’s Death” in 1921 and, most recently, in Luc Besson’s “Dracula,” which premiered in the U.S. in February 2026.

Besson’s rendition has received particular attention for its focus on personal passion. Originally titled “Dracula: A Love Tale,” the film features a protagonist who is not simply a monster, but a lover. The New York Times called the movie “extravagantly silly” and described actor Caleb Landry Jones’ performance of the classic monster as “deliciously operatic: less villain, more virtuoso in love.”

Meanwhile, in London, Dracula as lover also features as a theme in Cynthia Erivo’s new West End production, in which she plays the Count and 22 other characters. A smaller, recent production out of Washington, D.C., titled “Dracula: A Comedy of Terrors” presents the Count similarly, though with a hilariously deviant LGBTQ+ bite.

In other words, Dracula has come a long way from his days as a lecherous, old creep, a shift that can be attributed, in part, to evolving attitudes on love, gender and sexuality.

‘Even his breath was rank’

When Stoker first published “Dracula,” the character appeared at the end of a long line of literary vampires, from Lord Ruthven in John Polidori’s “The Vampyre” (1819) to Sir Francis Varney in “Varney the Vampire” (1845-1847).

A bald, skinny, elderly vampire with hollow eyes.
In the 1922 German film ‘Nosferatu, A Symphony of Horror,’ the vampire, Count Orlok, appears like his repulsive and predatory literary predecessors.
Frederic Lewis/Hulton Archive via Getty Images

These vampires were all decrepit, revolting and predatory old men, and Stoker’s Count Dracula was no different. In the novel, one character notes Dracula’s “course” hands, the “extraordinary pallor” of his skin and his “extremely pointed” ears; atop his “lofty domed forehead,” his hair grew “scantily” upon his head. Even his “breath was rank.”

Another character describes Dracula as possessing “not a good face,” adding that it was “hard, and cruel.”

The first surviving feature-length film adaptation of “Dracula” was the 1922 German film “Nosferatu: A Symphony of Horror,” which cribs the plot and characters from Stoker’s novel. In it, Count Orlok – essentially a bootleg version of Dracula – looks ratlike, emaciated and pallid.

Seduction game

Little about Stoker’s Dracula or Count Orlok screamed “lover,” though there’s arguably an implicit sexuality in the way he attacks and stalks his victims.

Instead, Dracula gained his “lover” label from later appearances on screen.

The earliest example appears in the 1944 film “House of Frankenstein,” where Rita (Anne Gwynne) is initially concerned by Dracula’s presence. Later, however, she finds herself “no longer afraid” after he places a ring onto her index finger, which magically fits to her precise shape.

At the end of this scene, as she longingly looks into his eyes, he announces he will come for her the next day, as if it were all a budding tryst.

Count Dracula is more handsome Lothario than old lech in ‘House of Frankenstein.’

The evolution of Dracula’s character mirrored changes in more general perceptions of gender, sexuality and violence that occurred after World War II, when popular culture started to chip away at the centrality of the nuclear family. As books, films and TV shows explored themes like lust, infidelity, same-sex relationships and divorce, images of vampires became more complex.

In the 1958 film “Dracula,” for example – titled “Horror of Dracula” in the U.S. – Dracula (Christopher Lee) is a predator who breaks into the homes of married women.

Yet there’s also a hint of romance. In one particular scene, he assaults Mina Holmwood (Melissa Stribling). But Mina appears to eventually give in, and they share a brief, passionate kiss. The British Board of Film Classification even censored the scene, seeing it as a step too far in a film already replete with sexual overtones.

Director Terence Fisher later recalled telling Stribling to depict her character as though she “had one whale of a sexual night, the one of your whole sexual experience. Give me that in your face!”

Lover or monster?

By the 1970s, sexuality became even more of a pronounced theme in vampire-related media, mirroring broader cultural changes in views of human sexuality.

Comic books such as “Vampirella” presented the vampire as a hypersexualized, feminine, erotic symbol of power, while films such as “The Vampire Lovers” explored themes like lesbianism, though not in a way that was entirely explicit.

In the film “Count Dracula’s Great Love” (1973), Dracula falls head over heels for a young girl named Karen, who ends up rejecting his advances. Near the end of the film, the lovesick vampire bemoans, “For the first time, love brings a finish to the life of Dracula,” before driving a stake into his heart with his own hands.

Shortly thereafter, a made-for-TV “Dracula” features Dracula’s search for his dead wife.

A woman with black hair and a red dress passionately kisses a man with long black hair.
Winona Ryder and Gary Oldman share a kiss in a scene from the 1992 film ‘Bram Stoker’s Dracula.’
Columbia Pictures/Getty Images

The “search for a dead lover” would become a central theme in future films. For example, in Francis Ford Coppola’s “Bram Stoker’s Dracula” (1992), viewers learn that Dracula leaves Transylvania for England to pursue a reincarnation of his dead wife.

This yearning was a borrowed concept. In the Gothic soap opera “Dark Shadows” (1966-1971), the character Barnabas Collins (Jonathan Frid) tries to replicate his romance with his long-dead lover, Josette, by attempting to supernaturally control the living body of a girl named Maggie Evans (Kathryn Leigh Scott) so that she mimics Josette.

The concept of a vampire pining for a lost love – especially one from a lost era – marked a significant evolution in vampire media.

In the 1970s comic book series “The Tomb of Dracula,” the Count has a human wife named Domini; through magical means, he’s even able to conceive a child with her. Thanks to his romance, he can now “understand things such as peace and rest and love.”

Despite Dracula-as-lover now being such a well-worn trope, the ever-adaptable Count is also ready for his traditional scare duties, most recently in Robert Egger’s “Nosferatu” (2024). Whether he’s a lover, a monster or both, Dracula represents the idea of the vampire as a mirror of human experience. Romance can sometimes teeter between love and pain. Passion can sometimes be scary. So when you next see him on stage or screen, don’t be surprised if his fervent love also comes with a sharp bite.

The Conversation

Stanley Stepanic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How Dracula became a red-hot lover – https://theconversation.com/how-dracula-became-a-red-hot-lover-275789

Menstrual pads and tampons can contain toxic substances – here’s what to know about this emerging health issue

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jenni Shearston, Assistant Professor of Integrative Physiology, University of Colorado Boulder

Studies have found small amounts of toxic heavy metals and other potentially harmful substances in some menstrual pads and tampons. zoranm/E+ via Getty Images

About half of the global population menstruates at some point in their lives. Disposable products, such as tampons and pads, are some of the most popular products used around the globe to manage menstrual flow.

Unfortunately, studies have shown that many personal care products, including shampoo, lotion, nail polish and menstrual products, contain hazardous chemicals. Items used in or near the vagina are of particular concern because they are in contact with vaginal mucous membranes – the moist tissue lining the inside of the vagina that secretes mucus. These tissues can absorb some chemicals very efficiently.

People use menstrual products 24 hours a day for multiple days monthly, over the course of many years. Tampons, which are used internally, are surrounded by the permeable vaginal mucous membrane for up to eight hours at a time.

I am an environmental epidemiologist, and I study chemical exposure, its sources and its health effects. As a person who menstruates, I also must make my own decisions around menstrual products and manage the challenge of finding accurate information about women’s health risks, which receive less research attention and funding than men’s health.

In 2024, I co-authored the first paper that detected metals in tampons, including toxic metals like lead and arsenic. My colleagues and I also wrote a review paper that surveyed the scientific literature and found about two dozen studies measuring chemicals in menstrual products.

The various chemicals that these studies detected were typically at concentrations low enough to make their health impact unclear. However, they included chemicals known to disrupt the endocrine system, which makes and controls hormones that are essential for bodies to function.

The next question after detection of toxic heavy metals in tampons is whether these substances can be absorbed into the body.

How contaminants get into menstrual products

The first modern tampon in the U.S. was patented in 1931. Nearly a century later, tampons still are made primarily from cotton, rayon or a blend of the two.

Chemicals may get into tampons and other menstrual products in a number of ways. Some chemicals, like heavy metals, are present in soil, either naturally or due to pollution, and may be absorbed by cotton plants.

Other chemicals, such as zinc, may be intentionally added to menstrual products to prevent the growth of harmful bacteria. Still others, such as phthalates – synthetic chemicals used to manufacture plastics – may leach into menstrual products from plastic packaging or be added as part of a fragrance.

Research suggests that these chemicals are present in a large proportion of menstrual products – we found lead present in all 30 tampons we tested. What we don’t yet know is if these chemicals can get into people’s bodies in a high enough concentration to cause health effects in either the reproductive system or elsewhere in the body.

Limited federal regulations

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulates tampons, menstrual cups and scented menstrual pads as Class II medical devices, which carry moderate to medium risk. Unscented menstrual pads are Class I medical devices, which are considered low-risk. These categories are based on the risk the device may present to a consumer who uses it in the intended way.

FDA guidance for Class II devices offers only a few general guidelines with respect to chemicals. For menstrual tampons and pads, it recommends – but does not require – that products should not contain two specific dioxin products or “any pesticide and herbicide residues.” Dioxins are a chemical by-product of the bleaching process to whiten cotton, and they are associated with cancer and endocrine disruption. Using non-chlorine bleaching methods can reduce dioxin formation.

The most stringent regulation of tampons in the U.S. occurred after an illness called toxic shock syndrome became a public concern in the 1970s and 1980s. Menstrual toxic shock syndrome occurs when the bacteria Staphlococcus aureus grows in the vagina on inserted menstrual products and releases a toxin called TSST-1. This substance can be absorbed through the vaginal mucosa and cause a variety of symptoms, including fever, high blood pressure, shock and even death.

During this epidemic, in which at least 52 cases were recorded and seven people died over a period of eight months, tampons were associated with the syndrome – especially a highly absorbent tampon called Rely, which was pulled from the market.

In response, the FDA created a task force that recommended standardizing the tampon absorbencies and advised consumers to use the lowest absorbency for their flow. This is why tampons in the U.S. now come in a range of absorbencies, from light through regular to super and ultra, so that users can choose the level they need while minimizing risk of toxic shock.

Living in a ‘soup of chemicals’

Just because a chemical is present in a menstrual product doesn’t mean it can get into the body. However, chemicals like lead and arsenic are known threats to human health. So it’s important to study whether harmful chemicals present in menstrual products could contribute to health problems.

Humans in the modern world live in what expert toxicologist Linda Birnbaum, former director of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, calls a “soup of chemicals.” Simply being present on Earth means being exposed to many chemicals, at different concentrations, all at once. This makes it difficult to unravel the relationship between a single chemical exposure and health.

Nonetheless, science has shown that chemical exposure from at least one menstrual product – vaginal douches – does affect health. Vaginal douching is the process of washing or cleaning the inside of the vagina with water or other fluids.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists recommends avoiding this process, which can harm healthy bacteria in the vagina, increasing the risk of vaginal infections and other diseases.

In addition, a 2015 study found that women who use vaginal douches have higher concentrations of a chemical called monoethyl phthalate in their urine. Exposure to this substance is associated with reproductive health problems, such as reduced fertility and increased pregnancy risk.

Can these chemicals be absorbed?

Scientists are working now to determine what concentrations of metals and other chemicals can leach out of tampons and other menstrual products. One 2025 study estimated that volatile organic compounds, a group of chemicals that vaporize quickly, can be absorbed through the vaginal mucosa. Volatile organic compounds may be added to menstrual products as part of fragrances, adhesives or other product components.

My team and I are now shifting our focus to the relationship between menstrual product use, various chemicals, and menstrual pain and bleeding severity. We want to see whether some chemicals will be elevated in menstrual blood, whether these chemical levels are higher in people who use tampons, and whether the chemicals are associated with greater menstrual pain and bleeding.

States are starting to act on this issue. For example, in 2024, Vermont became the first U.S. state to ban multiple chemicals from disposable menstrual products. California bans PFAS, a widely used group of highly persistent chemicals, from menstrual products. New York adopted a law in December 2025 barring multiple toxic chemicals from menstrual products.

California also enacted a law in October 2025 that requires manufacturers of disposable tampons and pads to measure concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, lead and zinc in their products, and to share those measurements with the state, which can publish them. More information like this will help support informed choices for millions of consumers who rely on menstrual products every month.

The Conversation

Jenni Shearston receives funding from the United States National Institutes of Health.

ref. Menstrual pads and tampons can contain toxic substances – here’s what to know about this emerging health issue – https://theconversation.com/menstrual-pads-and-tampons-can-contain-toxic-substances-heres-what-to-know-about-this-emerging-health-issue-268470

Colorado has high levels of radon, which can cause lung cancer – here’s how to lower your risk

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jan Lowery, Professor of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

Radon exposure is the leading cause of lung cancer for people who have never used tobacco. Francesco Scatena/iStock via Getty Images

In Colorado, as of 2025, about 500 people a year die from lung cancer as the result of radon gas exposure. Nationally, the number of lung cancer deaths attributed to radon is about 21,000 per year.

Radon is present nearly everywhere outdoors, yet typically at levels that are not harmful. It becomes dangerous when it gets trapped and accumulates inside homes, schools and other buildings.

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that is produced by the breakdown of uranium, a heavy metal present in the soil. People cannot smell it or see it, which makes radon particularly dangerous. When radon gas forms in the soil, it rises and finds its way into homes old and new through cracked foundations, gaps around sump pumps and drains, and crawl spaces.

Many people are unaware of the radon levels in their home. In Colorado, it is estimated that only 50% of homes have been tested. Thus, many Coloradans may be exposed to elevated radon levels and not know it.

Though tobacco use is the most significant risk factor for lung cancer, accounting for approximately 86% of all lung cancer cases, radon is the leading cause of lung cancer among people who have never used tobacco. Radon also has a compounding effect with tobacco that further increases lung cancer risk among tobacco users. About 7 in 1,000 nontobacco users with prolonged exposure to elevated radon levels may develop lung cancer in their lifetime.

Exposure to radon is preventable. As a cancer epidemiologist, I aim to help all Colorado residents be aware of their home’s radon level and take appropriate actions to mitigate exposure and reduce their and their family’s risk of lung cancer.

Radon in your home

Because of Colorado’s unique geology, including mountainous regions that consist heavily of granite rock that contains uranium, radon levels are higher in Colorado than in other states.

Colorado is among the top 10 states with the highest radon levels across the country. About 50% of Colorado homes tested for radon have levels higher than the recommended threshold set by the Environmental Protection Agency, which is 4 picocuries per liter (pCi/L). The average level of radon in Colorado homes is 6.4 pCi/L, which is equivalent to having 200 chest X-rays each year. Radon levels differ across the 64 counties in Colorado based on their geography and makeup of the soil.

If a home is not adequately vented, radon can build up indoors. When radon decays, it releases radioactive particles that, once inhaled, can damage lung cells. More specifically, these particles can break chemical bonds in the cell’s DNA that, if not repaired, can lead to cancer. Prolonged exposure to high levels of radon, over several years, can cause lung cancer. Similar to tobacco use, it is the cumulative exposure to radon that increases risk for cancer.

Fortunately, there are ways to prevent radon from entering and accumulating inside our homes. Radon mitigation systems use fans and pipes to pull radon gas from below the foundation of the home and vent it outside. These systems can reduce radon levels inside the home by up to 99%.

Know your risk: Testing and mitigating

Testing your home for radon is simple and relatively inexpensive. Test kits are placed in the lowest living area of your house, apartment, condominium or townhome and left for a period of time. The EPA recommends testing for all residential units below the third floor.

There are short-term tests, which take from two to 90 days, and long-term tests, which take 90 days or more. Long-term tests are more accurate for estimating annual average radon levels. Once complete, tests can be mailed directly to a lab for processing.

A step-by-step instructional video on how to test your home for radon from the El Paso County (Colorado) Public Health Department.

Test kits typically cost less than US$50 or may be obtained for free from many sources, including the University of Colorado Anschutz Cancer Center. As of February 2026, the cancer center has distributed more than 1,600 test kits to people in 55 Colorado counties. Nearly 40% of the tests distributed thus far show radon levels above the EPA threshold.

The EPA recommends testing over multiple months, including colder months when windows and doors to the outside are typically closed and radon can become trapped indoors. Testing over several months provides a better understanding of the average annual radon level in the home.

Reduce your risk: Radon mitigation

People with radon levels in their home that are at or above 4 pCi/L are recommended to seek mitigation measures. This may involve sealing cracks in basement walls and foundations and installing a fan and vent pipe to pull radon gas from underneath the home and vent it outside. Mitigation can cost between $1,000 and $3,000 depending on home structure and location.

There are resources available for people who need radon mitigation and can’t afford it. Colorado’s state health department has a low-income radon mitigation assistance program that can pay for radon mitigation for people who are eligible based on income requirements.

Radon may be invisible, but its impact on human health is unmistakably real – and largely preventable. By taking action today – testing your home, sharing this knowledge and seeking help when needed – you are investing in a healthier future for yourself and your community.

The Conversation

Jan Lowery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Colorado has high levels of radon, which can cause lung cancer – here’s how to lower your risk – https://theconversation.com/colorado-has-high-levels-of-radon-which-can-cause-lung-cancer-heres-how-to-lower-your-risk-273666

I’m a philosopher who tries to see the best in others – but I know there are limits

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Mark Schroeder, Professor of Philosophy, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

Interpreting someone’s thoughts or actions can mean balancing their agency against the good. Kateryna Kovarzh/iStock via Getty Images

Understanding one another can be hard. There is a big difference between someone snapping at you out of contempt, and calling you out for a mistake because they believe in you and know you can do better. One of these cases calls for anger, but the other for humility or even embarrassment. Or maybe they are only snapping because they’re “hangry” – they might just need a Snickers bar.

And that’s just with people we know. What about strangers, people across the political divide, or even those with very different backgrounds and cultures than your own?

My field, philosophy, offers a tried-and-true answer to what we need to do in order to understand people and texts from very different backgrounds and cultural assumptions than our own. We need to be charitable.

Charity in this sense isn’t a matter of giving money to those who need it more. Instead, it’s seeing others in a favorable light – of seeing the best in them. In my work, I think of this as seeing other people as protagonists: characters who “do their best” with the predicament in which they find themselves. Interpreting someone charitably doesn’t require agreeing with them. But it does require doing our best to find merit in their point of view.

Of course, people and ideas don’t have unlimited merit. We can err by failing to see the merit of someone’s point of view – or we can err by finding merit that isn’t really there.

But the idea of charity is that it’s worse to make the first kind of error because it prevents us from getting along and learning from one another. By seeing the best in someone else and in their ideas, we can learn productively from engaging with them. Protagonists are people we can learn from and cooperate with.

Taking them seriously

It doesn’t take a genius to observe that we are all better at seeing the best in the people we agree with – and worse with those across the political divide. Political discussions on social media are often dominated by competing attributions of more and more insidious motives to people on the other side. We see them not as protagonists, but as antagonists.

By seeing the worst in someone else’s ideas, we let ourselves off easy. We dismiss them when instead we need to be taking them seriously.

So why, if charity requires seeing the best in others, are we so often tempted to see the worst in them?

A better understanding of charity provides the answer. Seeing the best and the worst in others are not opposite ways of interpreting someone, but simply two sides of the same coin. Here’s why:

A dark-haired man and woman stand as they seem to argue in a dining room, with the man clutching his temples.
Part of charity is sifting out the signal from the noise.
Maskot/Getty Images

Interpretation trade-offs

Interpreting someone isn’t all about figuring out their motives. Sometimes it’s about sorting out what is signal and what is noise. If I snap at you, you could spend a lot of time fixating over whether to be angry or embarrassed. But sometimes the right move is just to pass me a Snickers bar and move on. Our moods and actions are influenced by hunger, hormones, alcohol and lack of sleep, just to name a few. Overinterpreting a snap after I missed breakfast treats as signal what is really just noise.

Overlooking a thing or two when I am hangry can be the best way to see the best in me. When you interpret my snap as merely the result of missing a meal, you don’t really see it as coming from me, the protagonist; but as the result of my predicament. You will judge me, not by whether I am hangry, but by how I overcome that. Your interpretation sees me in a more positive light, by taking away some of my agency.

By “agency,” I mean the extent to which someone gets credit for what they do. You have greater agency over something that you do on purpose, and less if was a foreseen but accepted side effect of your plan. You have less agency if it was an accident, but more if the accident was negligent; less agency if you just snapped because you’re hangry, but more if you know you get hangry and chose to skip lunch anyway.

A perfect agent wouldn’t be affected by hormones and hunger. They would simply make rational choices that advance their goals. But humans aren’t like that. We are imperfectly embodied agents, at best. So interpreting one another well sometimes requires seeing the good in one another, at the cost of agency. In other words, it has to balance agency against the good, as I have argued in my recent work.

But you can’t find the best in someone by just ignoring more and more until all the bad things are trimmed away and only something good is left. Your interpretation has to fit with the facts of what they do and say.

And sometimes the trade-offs between agency and the good go the other way – we interpret each other in ways that attribute more agency but less good. If passing me a Snickers bar seems to calm me down, you might try it again the next time I snap. But one day you realize that you have started carrying extra Snickers bars everywhere you go in case you run into me, and a different interpretation presents itself: Maybe instead of being a decent but mood-challenged friend, I have just been using you for your candy bars.

A young bearded man in a yellow shirt grins as he holds up a chocolate bar and sits with his feet on an office table.
Truly angry, just hangry, or taking advantage of your chocolate supply?
Deagreez/iStock via Getty Images Plus

This creates tipping points for charitable interpretation. When we cross the tipping point, you switch from seeing someone as an imperfectly embodied protagonist to seeing them as an antagonist.

Charity without a cost

All of this is a way of arguing that it is sometimes right to see the worst in others. Sometimes other people really are the worst, and understanding them requires understanding their agency, not what is good about them. Protagonists and antagonists are just two sides of the same coin: The very same interpretive process can lead us in either direction.

Unfortunately, this means there is no simple test for when you are doing well enough at seeing the best in others. In particular, there is no test that we can agree about across our political differences. Interpreting someone charitably requires looking hard enough for good in them, but part of what we disagree with one another about is precisely what is good. So we are bound to disagree with one another about who is being sufficiently charitable.

But as a personal aspiration, a little more charity can go a long way. We can be generous not just with money, but in how we interpret others. But unlike giving money away, we don’t lose anything when we try harder to see the best in someone else.

The Conversation

Mark Schroeder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. I’m a philosopher who tries to see the best in others – but I know there are limits – https://theconversation.com/im-a-philosopher-who-tries-to-see-the-best-in-others-but-i-know-there-are-limits-273446

Trump administration axed nutrition education program that saved more money than it cost, even as government encourages healthier eating

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Diane Cress, Associate Professor of Nutrition and Food Science, Wayne State University

If the government had found a way to save US$10 for every dollar it spent helping low-income people get healthier, wouldn’t it make sense for it to keep doing that?

Well, that’s exactly what the U.S. government did when it piloted the SNAP-Ed program in 1977. This U.S. Department of Agriculture program persisted for nearly 50 years until the Trump administration shuttered it in 2025.

SNAP-Ed served as the nutrition education arm of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which helps more than 40 million Americans buy groceries.

SNAP-Ed complemented SNAP by teaching people who get those benefits how best to use that government assistance. It paid for nutrition educators to teach lessons at schools, community centers and university extension offices. The educators led grocery store tours, taught label reading and budget comparisons, and taught cooking classes. And they offered a mix of printed and online resources to support good nutrition in the home.

While the federal government fully funded the program, the states, along with Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, administered and implemented SNAP-Ed through local community programs, often partnering with nonprofits. It cost only one penny for every SNAP dollar spent, and it worked.

But as of Oct. 1, 2025, SNAP-Ed ceased to exist due to spending cuts that were part of the big tax reform and budget package President Donald Trump signed into law three months earlier.

Dealing with the aftermath

To see why focusing on teaching food preparation skills is so critical, imagine discovering a flat tire. Do you need someone to tell you to fix it or someone to show you how? Nutrition works the same way.

We’ve all left the doctor’s office with instructions to “eat better,” which is essentially useless without the tools to do so. SNAP-Ed taught people how to identify healthy food patterns, keep food safe and navigate a complex food environment.

It also taught low-income Americans how to improve their budgeting and planning for meals that balance cost and nutrition. It’s nearly impossible to meet your basic nutritional needs if you are relying on SNAP dollars alone to fill your grocery cart. Skills are required.

States are getting creative to find ways to preserve aspects of the SNAP-Ed program. In Georgia, alternative funding sources might keep programs running for about a year. In Wyoming, a less local, more regional model has helped allow for the continuation of some programs previously funded by the SNAP-Ed program.

In my own state, Michigan State University Extension, which served as Michigan’s statewide implementing partner for SNAP-Ed, lost over $10 million in federal support when SNAP-Ed was defunded. The extension’s staff is working to keep its curricula, lesson plans, recipes and other training materials available online to the public in an effort to sustain its work.

Educating 1.2 million people

Because SNAP-Ed funding has been eliminated, the programs it supported are disappearing or shrinking. As a result, every SNAP dollar may not be spent as wisely as before.

In 2025, SNAP spending was over $100 billion, while SNAP-Ed operated on a $536 million budget, educating over 1.2 million people on how best to spend their SNAP dollars and improve their health.

SNAP-Ed’s benefits persist today, but without continued training and support its impact will diminish, decades of trust built in communities will be lost, and the health of communities no longer served will suffer.

But for now, at least, SNAP-Ed’s online resources remain freely available.

The SNAP-Ed program explained.

Reducing diabetes risks

As a dietitian and a professor, I often conduct community-based participatory research aimed at improving health in low-income populations, especially those at risk for developing Type 2 diabetes.

In a pilot study my research team helped conduct in Detroit in 2018, we paired the Centers for Disease Control’s National Diabetes Prevention Program with Cooking Matters, a course funded by SNAP-Ed that taught meal planning, hands-on meal prep and food resource management.

We wanted to see whether SNAP-Ed skills training would amplify the benefits of the National Diabetes Prevention Program in a low-income community.

It did.

All 23 participants in this Detroit pilot lost weight and lowered their hemoglobin A1c, a key marker of diabetes risk.

All but one participant moved from prediabetic to nondiabetic sugar levels, effectively reversing prediabetes.

The National Diabetes Prevention Program often has trouble retaining study participants in low-income communities where Type 2 diabetes risk and health care costs are significant problems.

Not only did our findings show how SNAP-ED was boosting health in several at-risk communities, but they also provided evidence for the economic benefits of the program.

To estimate how much money the government saved through SNAP-Ed, the USDA compiled data from multiple studies like ours, finding that every dollar spent in community health education ultimately saved $10.64 in Medicaid spending by the government.

If a drugmaker invented a pill that cut diabetes risk by 40% and reduced a key diabetes marker like HbA1c by nearly one percentage point, I have no doubt that it would be hailed as a miracle.

Our study achieved exactly these outcomes through inexpensive, skills-based education. And yet the Trump administration ended the education program that funding this kind of work.

Conflicting with the administration’s own goals

The Make America Healthy Again movement has both embraced Trump and a core principle: Healthy habits prevent chronic disease. It doesn’t make sense to me, in light of that movement, for the Trump administration to stop funding SNAP-Ed.

The program has helped reduce the prevalence of many chronic diseases, and this could have been expected to yield up to $1 trillion in health care savings by 2030.

As the popular proverb goes: “Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.” SNAP-Ed taught over 1.2 million people how to fish every year, all for a little more than the latest estimates of what it’s going to cost to build the White House ballroom.

The Conversation

Diane Cress previously received funding from Gleaners Community Food Bank.

ref. Trump administration axed nutrition education program that saved more money than it cost, even as government encourages healthier eating – https://theconversation.com/trump-administration-axed-nutrition-education-program-that-saved-more-money-than-it-cost-even-as-government-encourages-healthier-eating-272002

Sixth year of drought in Texas and Oklahoma leaves ranchers facing wildfires and bracing for another tough year

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Joel Lisonbee, Senior Associate Scientist, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

Cattle auctions aren’t often all-night affairs. But in Texas Lake Country in June 2022, ranchers facing dwindling water supplies and dried out pastures amid a worsening drought sold off more than 4,000 animals in an auction that lasted nearly 24 hours – about 200 cows an hour.

It was the height of a drought that has gripped the Southern Plains for the past six years – a drought that is still holding on in much of the region in 2026.

The drought cost the agriculture industry across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas an estimated US$23.6 billion in lost crops, higher feed costs and selling off cattle from 2020 through 2024 alone. As rangeland dried out, it has also fueled wildfires, including several in Texas in early 2026.

Historically, droughts of this magnitude happen in the Southern Plains about once a decade, but the severe droughts of this century have been lasting longer, leaving water supplies, native rangelands and farms with little time to recover before the next one hits.

Many cattle producers and rangelands were still recovering from a severe 2010-2015 drought when a flash drought hit western Texas in spring 2020, marking the beginning of the current multibillion-dollar, multiyear and multistate drought. Ample spring rainfall in 2025 and severe flooding in central Texas that year weren’t enough to end the drought, and a powerful winter storm in late January 2026 missed the driest parts of the region.

A map shows heavy precipitation across a large part of the country, but it mostly missed the areas facing the worse drought in the Southern Plains.
Precipitation from a severe winter storm in late January 2026, shown in blue and measured in inches, largely missed the areas with the worst drought conditions, indicated by red contour lines.
UC Merced, NDMC

In a recent study with colleagues at the Southern Regional Climate Center and the National Integrated Drought Information System, we assessed the causes and damage from the ongoing drought in the Southern Plains.

We found three key reasons for the enduring drought and its damage: rising temperatures and a La Niña climate pattern; water supply shortages; and lingering economic impacts from the previous drought.

Weather and climate helped drive the drought

The Southern Plains is known to be a hot spot for rapid drought development, and the ongoing drought that started in 2020 is no exception.

Documented “flash droughts” – defined as periods of rapid drought onset or intensification of existing droughts – occurred at least five times in the region from 2020 to 2025. As global temperatures rise and climates warm, research warns that the frequency and severity of flash drought events will increase.

Maps show how the current drought progressed and moved around the region. It was at its height in 2022.
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s monthly updates from January 2020 through January 2026 show how drought moved around in the Southern Plains over those years but never let go. Darker colors reflect the intensity of drought in each location.
Joel Lisonbee; compiled from U.S. Drought Monitor

For the southern part of the Southern Plains, winter precipitation is closely linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern that affects weather around the world. Five of the past six years exhibited a La Niña pattern, which typically means the region sees winters that are warmer and drier than normal.

La Niña was likely the primary driver – although not the only driver – of the drought for Texas and southwest Oklahoma, and one of the reasons drought conditions have continued into 2026.

The Southern Plains have a long history with severe droughts. The Dust Bowl of the early 1930s may be the best-known example. But a history with drought doesn’t make it any easier to manage when crops and water supplies dry up.

Deeply rooted water shortages

The heat and dryness since 2020 have left many of the region’s rivers, reservoirs and even groundwater reserves well below average.

San Antonio’s reservoirs all reached record-low levels in 2024 and 2025, as did the Edwards Aquifer, which provides water for roughly 2.5 million people. They were still low as 2026 began. Surface water and groundwater resources across central and western Texas have been depleted to the point that even a few big storms can’t replenish them.

A few major rivers flow into the Southern Plains from other drought-affected regions. Consider the Rio Grande, which begins in Colorado and winds through New Mexico and along Texas’ southern border: Not only has the Lower Rio Grande valley in southern Texas missed out on needed precipitation this winter, so did the Rio Grande headwaters in southern Colorado.

Colorado is facing a snow drought in winter 2026, as is much of the western U.S. If it continues, there will be less snowmelt come summer to feed rivers, such as the Rio Grande, or fill reservoirs. In early February, the Elephant Butte, Amistad and Falcon reservoirs, along the Rio Grande, were only 11%, 34%, and 20% full, respectively.

Lingering economic impacts

Like water supplies, the economy doesn’t just recover when the rains return.

One of the reasons the current drought has been so costly is that parts of the region had not fully recovered from the 2010-2015 drought when the latest one began in 2020. With only a five-year break between droughts, the landscape behaved like someone with an already weakened immune system who caught a cold.

Severe droughts over time in the Southern Plains
The percentage of land in different levels of drought or wetness for each month based on the nine-month Standardized Precipitation Index leading up to the selected date. Reds indicate drier conditions; blues indicate wetter conditions.
National Integrated Drought Information System, NOAA Drought.gov

During the 2010-2015 drought, cattle producers in Texas sold off about 20% of the statewide herd as water became scarce and rangeland dried up. Rebuilding a herd after a drought is a slow process. Pasture recovery can take a year or more, and a newborn heifer will take two years to mature and produce her own first calf.

Cattle herds had still not returned to pre-2010 levels when the 2022 drought peak forced another mass sell-off. From 2020 through 2024, Texas’s herd size declined from 13.1 million to 12 million; Oklahoma’s declined from 5.3 million to 4.7 million; and Kansas’ declined from 6.5 million to 6.15 million.

Looking beyond livestock, a large percentage of the Southern Plains’ crops failed in 2022, the peak year of the drought. In Texas, 25% of the corn crop was planted but never harvested, and 45% of the soybean crop was similarly abandoned. A normal season would have yielded a $2.4 billion cotton crop in Texas, but 74% of that crop was abandoned, slashing its value to roughly $640 million.

Ending the Southern Plains drought

Is the end in sight? With La Niña fading in early 2026 and its opposite, El Niño, potentially on the horizon, there’s a chance for wetter conditions that could reduce the drought in the fall and winter months of 2026.

But the Southern Plains still have to get through spring and summer first. Ending a drought like this requires consistent precipitation over several months, and drought conditions are likely to get worse before they get better.

This article, originally published Feb. 9, 2026, has been updated with new wildfires in Texas.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Sixth year of drought in Texas and Oklahoma leaves ranchers facing wildfires and bracing for another tough year – https://theconversation.com/sixth-year-of-drought-in-texas-and-oklahoma-leaves-ranchers-facing-wildfires-and-bracing-for-another-tough-year-275219

Why the ‘Streets of Minneapolis’ have echoed with public support – unlike the campus of Kent State in 1970

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gregory P. Magarian, Thomas and Karole Green Professor of Law, Washington University in St. Louis

Ohio National Guardsmen on the Kent State University campus prepare to disperse student protesters on May 4, 1970. Troops later opened fire on students, killing four. Howard Ruffner/Getty Images

The president announces an aggressive, controversial policy. Large groups of protesters take to the streets. Government agents open fire and kill protesters.

All of these events, familiar from Minneapolis in 2026, also played out at Ohio’s Kent State University in 1970. In my academic writing about the First Amendment, I have described Kent State as a key moment when the government silenced free speech.

In Minneapolis, free speech has weathered the crisis better, as seen in the protests themselves, the public’s responses – and even the protest songs the two events inspired.

Protests and shootings, then and now

In 1970, President Richard Nixon announced he had expanded the Vietnam War by bombing Cambodia. Student anti-war protests, already fervent, intensified.

In Ohio, Gov. James Rhodes deployed the National Guard to quell protests at Kent State University. Monday, May 4, saw a large midday protest on the main campus commons. Students exercised their First Amendment rights by chanting and shouting at the Guard troops, who dispersed protesters with tear gas before regrouping on a nearby hill.

A video compilation of the deadly events at Kent State University on May 4, 1970.

With the nearest remaining protesters 20 yards from the Guard troops and most more than 60 yards away, 28 guardsmen inexplicably fired on students, killing four students and wounding nine others.

After the killings, the government sought to shift blame to the slain students. Nixon stated: “When dissent turns to violence, it invites tragedy.”

Minneapolis in 2026 presents vivid parallels.

As part of a sweeping campaign to deport undocumented immigrants, President Donald Trump in early January 2026 deployed armed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection agents to Minneapolis.

Many residents protested, exercising their First Amendment rights by using smartphones and whistles to record and call out what they saw as ICE and CBP abuses. On Jan. 7, 2026, an ICE agent shot and killed activist Renee Good in her car. On Jan. 24, two CBP agents shot and killed protester Alex Pretti on the street.

The government sought to blame Good and Pretti for their own killings.

Different public reactions

After Kent State, amid bitter conservative opposition to student protesters, most Americans blamed the fallen students for their deaths. When students in New York City protested the Kent State shootings, construction workers attacked and beat the students in what became known as the “hard hat riot.” Afterward, Nixon hosted construction union leaders at the White House, where they gave him an honorary hard hat.

A huge crowd of protesters carrying anti-ICE signs.
Protesters march through the streets of downtown Minneapolis on Jan. 25, 2026, one day after federal agents shot dead U.S. citizen Alex Pretti.
Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

In contrast, most Americans believe the Trump administration has used excessive force in Minneapolis. Majorities both oppose the federal agents’ actions against protesters and approve of protesting and recording the agents.

The public response to Minneapolis has made a difference. The Trump administration has announced an end to its immigration crackdown in the Twin Cities. Trump has backed off attacks on Good and Pretti. Congressional opposition to ICE funding has grown. Overall public support for Trump and his policies has fallen.

Free speech in protests, recordings and songs

What has caused people to view the killings in Minneapolis so differently from Kent State? One big factor, I believe, is how free speech has shaped the public response.

The Minneapolis protests themselves have sent the public a more focused message than what emerged from the student protests against the Vietnam War.

Anti-war protests in 1970 targeted military action on the other side of the world. Organizers had to plan and coordinate through in-person meetings and word of mouth. Student protesters needed the institutional news media to convey their views to the public.

In contrast, the anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis target government action at the protesters’ doorsteps. Organizers can use local networks and social media to plan, coordinate and communicate directly with the public. The protests have succeeded in deepening public opposition to ICE.

In addition, the American people have witnessed the Minneapolis shootings.

Kent State produced a famous photograph of a surviving student’s anguish but only hazy, chaotic video of the shootings.

In contrast, widely circulated video evidence showed the Minneapolis killings in horrifying detail. Within days of each shooting, news organizations had compiled detailed visual timelines, often based on recordings by protesters and observers, that sharply contradicted government accounts of what happened to Good and Pretti.

Finally, consider two popular protest songs that emerged from Kent State and Minneapolis: Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young’s “Ohio” and Bruce Springsteen’s “Streets of Minneapolis.”

Bruce Springsteen sings ‘Streets of Minneapolis.’

Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young recorded, pressed and released “Ohio” with remarkable speed for 1970. The vinyl single reached record stores and radio stations on June 4, a month after the Kent State shootings. The song peaked at No. 14 on the Billboard chart two months later.

Neil Young’s lyrics described the Kent State events in mythic terms, warning of “tin soldiers” and telling young Americans: “We’re finally on our own.” Young did not describe the shootings in detail. The song does not name Kent State, the National Guard or the fallen students. Instead, it presents the events as symbolic of a broader generational conflict over the Vietnam War.

Springsteen released “Streets of Minneapolis” on Jan. 28, 2026 – just four days after CBP agents killed Pretti. Two days later, the song topped streaming charts worldwide.

The internet and social media let Springsteen document Minneapolis, almost in real time, for a mass audience. Springsteen’s lyrics balance symbolism with specificity, naming not just “King Trump” but also victims Pretti and Good, key Trump officials Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem, main Minneapolis artery Nicollet Avenue, and the protesters’ “whistles and phones,” before fading on a chant of “ICE out!”

Critics offer compelling arguments that 21st-century mass communication degrades social relationships, elections and culture. In Minneapolis, disinformation has muddied crucial facts about the protests and killings.

At the same time, Minneapolis has shown how networked communication can promote free speech. Through focused protests, recordings of government action, and viral popular culture, today’s public can get fuller, clearer information to help critically assess government actions.

The Conversation

Gregory P. Magarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why the ‘Streets of Minneapolis’ have echoed with public support – unlike the campus of Kent State in 1970 – https://theconversation.com/why-the-streets-of-minneapolis-have-echoed-with-public-support-unlike-the-campus-of-kent-state-in-1970-274917