Category: The Conversation – UK

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chee Meng Tan, Assistant Professor of Business Economics, University of Nottingham

Japan said goodbye to its last two giant pandas on January 27, as twins Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei were returned from their host country to China. Their departure has left Japan without any pandas for the first time since 1972, when Tokyo and Beijing normalised diplomatic ties.

The Chinese government has long pursued a strategy of giving or loaning giant pandas, which are found exclusively in China, to other countries to strengthen international ties and boost its global image. Widely known as “panda diplomacy”, this practice has seen more than 30 pandas sent to – or born in – Japan over the past 50 or so years.

However, relations between Tokyo and Beijing are currently tense. Comments made in November by Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, that her country could respond militarily to a Chinese attack on Taiwan prompted an angry response from officials in Beijing.

And soon after, China announced it would be recalling Japan’s last two pandas from the Ueno Zoo in Tokyo a month ahead of schedule. The Tokyo metropolitan government had been negotiating with China to extend the pandas’ stay or loan new bears in their place. But these talks were put on hold and the pandas have subsequently been returned.

Panda diplomacy

China’s practice of sending pandas to foreign countries can be traced to the 7th century, when Empress Wu Zetian gifted two bears to Japan as a gesture of goodwill. However, modern panda diplomacy is often associated with the 1970s. That decade saw China open up and gift pandas to a number of major economies in an attempt to build ties, including the US and Japan in 1972, France in 1973 and the UK in 1974.

Due to declining wild panda populations, China stopped gifting pandas to other countries by 1984. Pandas were instead sent to foreign zoos on long-term loans, often lasting up to 15 years, with countries paying as much as US$1 million (£738,000) in “conservation fees” per year to keep them.

By the peak of panda diplomacy in 2019, a total of 21 countries or territories outside of China, Macau and Hong Kong had pandas. These were South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Qatar, Russia, Taiwan, Germany, Spain, Austria, Denmark, Belgium, Mexico, Australia, Thailand, Finland, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, US and UK. That number has now dropped to 16.

One reason for this decline is that China has to be careful about which countries it chooses to engage in panda diplomacy with. Many Chinese people regard the giant panda as a national treasure, with the animal carrying deep emotional significance. Because of their status, the perceived mistreatment of pandas abroad can cause Beijing to receive intense backlash from nationalist circles at home.

For instance, when panda Le Le died of natural causes at Memphis Zoo in the US in 2023 and photos of his female companion Ya Ya looking thin and sickly surfaced online, speculation arose on Chinese social media that the US had mishandled the pandas. Some went as far as to accuse Chinese authorities of colluding with the zoo to cover up the incident.

For many of these people, the alleged mistreatment of the pandas was symbolic of what they saw as the US’s bullying of China. As one comment on the Weibo Chinese social media platform put it: “Treating our national treasure with such an attitude is an outright provocation of China”. Despite insistence by the Chinese foreign ministry that both pandas had been “well taken care of” in the US, Ya Ya’s stay was not extended.

The desire to avoid more public backlash may help explain why China recalled Japan’s last two pandas early and did not extend their stay. With tensions between China and Japan running high, it would have been difficult for officials in Beijing to justify why these cherished national symbols should stay in the hands of what many Chinese people see as a belligerent rival.

Panda diplomacy remains an effective tool of soft power for China. This was demonstrated by the 178,000 visitors that flocked to Ueno Zoo to catch a glimpse of Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei in the month after it was announced they would be returned. The public response was so strong that the zoo had to restrict visitor numbers to the panda viewing area to 4,800 people per day, with each visit limited to one minute.

Yet there are limits to using pandas as diplomatic tools, and not just due to the strength of nationalist feeling within China towards them. China’s practice of sending pandas to foreign nations has been heavily criticised by conservationists and animal advocates, who argue the bears are used as pawns in a game of geopolitical chess.

There are also question marks over whether the practice enhances conservation. While foreign zoos that host pandas send China millions of US dollars a year in conservation fees, the species is currently listed as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.

Panda diplomacy is a delicate balancing act. While it can help strengthen China’s international relationships, it also exposes Beijing to public backlash whenever its furry ambassadors become entangled in political disputes or welfare controversies.

Chee Meng Tan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. China’s panda diplomacy is becoming a liability for Beijing – https://theconversation.com/chinas-panda-diplomacy-is-becoming-a-liability-for-beijing-274658

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew Barnfield, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Department of Politics and International Relations, Queen Mary University of London

Since Reform UK took in several high-profile Conservative defectors in the space of a few weeks, a debate has arisen about whether these new recruits benefit or harm Nigel Farage’s party.

Some suggest that the loss of Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, among others, hastens the demise of the Conservative party, to Reform’s benefit. But there’s also the risk that in embracing high-profile Conservatives, Reform is tying its image to the unpopular government they once represented. Apparently there is danger for Farage in becoming “Tory party 2.0” – a new version of the same party the electorate roundly rejected in 2024.

Polling since the defections should indeed give Farage some pause here. Recent figures from YouGov show that significantly fewer people now see Reform and the Conservatives as all that different from each other. The proportion who see the parties as different has fallen by ten percentage points since September.

Polling also shows that 63% of Labour voters 67% of Liberal Democrat voters and 64% of Green voters didn’t like Reform anyway and therefore haven’t changed their opinions about the party since the defections. No surprises there.

Conservatives are the only group for whom this is not a majority position. As a percentage, the group of Conservative voters whose negative opinion of Reform UK remains unchanged is about half that of other parties.

That’s partly because a bigger chunk of Conservative voters are positive about Reform UK in general. Almost a quarter say they were already, and remain, positive about Reform, compared to around 5% for supporters of other parties. But it’s also because the defections have had a much bigger effect on Conservative voters. While the proportion whose opinion has worsened is similar to other parties, over a fifth of Conservatives say they now have a more favourable view of Reform as a result of the defections. Negligible numbers of other parties’ supporters feel that way.

That the Conservatives stand out here matters. If Reform is going to push past its recent plateau in the polls, it will mostly likely be by winning over more Conservative voters. And if “Tory party 2.0” is likely to appeal to anyone, it’s Tory voters.

As political scientists have been arguing for a while, Reform is not going to win over many people who currently intend to vote Labour, Liberal Democrat, or Green. Those voters are in the so-called “left bloc”. Reform and the Conservatives form the “right bloc”. Voters rarely move between blocs; they move within them.

This bloc structure suggests that Reform needs two things to work in its favour. First, it needs to look more viable than the Conservatives. If voters can’t tell which of the two has a better chance of forming a government, it becomes harder to unite behind either. Second, Reform needs enough right-bloc voters’ preference for the Conservatives to be weak enough that they would consider switching to Reform in a pinch.

The defections help on both fronts. High-profile Conservatives moving to Reform make it look like those politicians see Reform as a viable route into government. On the preference side, the defections are improving more Conservatives’ opinions of Reform than they are worsening.

Conservatives are also coming to see the two parties as less different, and that is just as plausibly a good thing as a bad thing for Reform. If Reform looks closer to a party they already like, Conservative voters may have fewer qualms about switching.

But the risk here is that potential Reform voters will be turned off. And indeed, 17% of Reform supporters say the defections have made them more negative about the party – the highest figure for any party’s supporters.

Reform has done especially well at attracting people who did not vote at all in 2024. No surprise there: the arrival of a radical right-wing challenger party has been shown to boost turnout by mobilising voters who feel their views are not represented by the mainstream.

Another risk is that these voters may be more prone to disengaging again if Reform starts to look too much like part of the traditional party system. Both theory and evidence suggest that when parties are too similar, voters are less likely to turn out as the perceived difference made by their vote reduces. Populist parties are especially vulnerable here because their voters tend to share a common disillusionment about democracy with non-voters.

Coming to look ever more like Tory party 2.0 might not dent Reform’s chances of bringing Tory voters on board. But it does risk disenchanting people who were on board before, when they looked like something completely different from the status quo – or those yet to be convinced of voting at all in the next election.

Matthew Barnfield receives funding from The British Academy.

– ref. Reform has been warned that defecting Tories will damage its brand – and the first evidence is in – https://theconversation.com/reform-has-been-warned-that-defecting-tories-will-damage-its-brand-and-the-first-evidence-is-in-275201

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Caygill, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Nottingham Trent University

Keir Starmer is in the middle of his worst crisis yet following further damaging revelations about Peter Mandelson’s friendship with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

Emails released by the US government revealed the depth of Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein and confirmed that it continued after Epstein’s conviction in 2008.

Starmer insists that Mandelson lied to him and to the team responsible for vetting him as a candidate to be the UK ambassador to the United States. According to Starmer, Mandelson’s answers gave the impression that he barely knew Epstein.

When emails came to light in September showing that the relationship was deeper than claimed, the prime minister dismissed him. Starmer has, however, now admitted that he knew at the time of the vetting that Mandelson had remained in contact with Epstein after he was convicted of sex offences.

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Read more:
What exactly is misconduct in public office and could Peter Mandelson be convicted?

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The prime minister’s judgement over appointing Mandelson as his ambassador was being called into question even before these latest revelations. Mandelson had previously resigned twice (in 1998 and 2001) from Tony Blair’s government following scandals, and it was public knowledge that he had been friends with Epstein. All of this should have ruled him out of consideration.

Pressure has been mounting on the government to release documents detailing Mandelson’s vetting to show how much was really known about his ties to Epstein. It is these documents specifically that are at the centre of the latest speculation that Starmer cannot survive in his job.

The Conservative party tabled a humble address motion in the House of Commons on February 4 calling for all vetting documents and related correspondence to be made public. Humble address motions, if passed, compel the government to carry out the actions specified in the motion.

Starmer has a large majority and could have fought off this manoeuvre had he had the support of his own MPs. But they are furious with him. Some have briefed that this scandal is the final straw after a series of poor judgement calls from the prime minister (previously mostly in relation to policy, where U-turns have been required).

They made it clear to the whips that they would rebel if instructed to vote against the Conservative motion. As a result, the government decided to table an amendment to the motion to give itself control over which documents would be released.

Its stated aim was to prevent any material that could be prejudicial to national security or international relations from being made public. Starmer has also said that a police investigation into Mandelson also precludes publication of some documents because they may prejudice any case against him.

This amendment was tabled the night before the debate and vote but it quickly became clear that trust in the prime minister and his government had completely evaporated and that Labour MPs would not support the amendment. In response, a last-minute manuscript amendment was drafted and tabled to ensure that documents pertaining to Mandelson’s appointment would instead be given to the (cross-party) Intelligence and Security Committee for review and publication. That would prevent the government from deciding what to release.

This amendment was suggested in the chamber by Angela Rayner (the former deputy prime minister and deputy Labour leader) and is a sign of how serious the situation has become for the prime minister. It signals clearly that his own MPs no longer trust him or his government to handle the release of documents appropriately.

The government has now lost control of the process, and this could lead to the publication of documents that further damage its reputation — not only regarding what the government did or did not know about Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein, but also potentially embarrassing correspondence about Donald Trump and members of his administration.

The wording of the government’s initial amendment attempted to block the release of documents that might affect international relations. That suggests there may be damaging revelations of the kind that forced one of Mandelson’s predecessors as US ambassador, Kim Darroch, to resign. Darroch was forced to stand down as ambassador in 2019 after leaked emails showed he’d called the first Trump administration “”clumsy and inept”.

Labour MPs have had enough

The level of frustration on the Labour backbenches is now comparable to that of Conservative MPs during the final months of Boris Johnson’s premiership. The focus of retribution is currently directed at the prime minister’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, who MPs blame for this error of judgement (as he was a political ally of Mandelson). They see McSweeney has having given poor advice to the prime minister and blame him for the poor operation of Downing Street over the past 18 months.

Even if the immediate pressure is on McSweeney, losing him would still be destabilising for the prime minister. A similar dynamic played out under Theresa May when her party forced her joint chiefs of staff, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, from office after the 2017 election.

Either way, Starmer’s days as prime minister appear to be numbered. The real question is how long he can remain in office. Labour MPs are not naturally inclined toward regicide – indeed, the party has never removed a sitting prime minister from office before. Any challenger needs the support of 80 MPs to trigger a leadership election – one in which Starmer would be entitled to stand himself. That remains a high threshold.

And, in the first instance, none of the apparent heirs to the leadership are currently positioned to launch a credible challenge. Andy Burnham was prevented from standing in the upcoming Gorton and Denton byelection, so won’t become an MP any time soon. Angela Rayner has yet to resolve the tax issues that forced her resignation from government last year. Wes Streeting is viewed as being too closely aligned politically with Mandelson to mount a challenge over this scandal.

There are, however, further moments of danger on the horizon. The loss of the Gorton and Denton byelection could weaken the prime minister further. Some in the party are still angry over Burnham being blocked, which many believe may have cost Labour a winnable seat.

Upcoming local elections in England, as well as the parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales, also look set to be torrid for Labour. It is likely that Starmer will limp on into the local elections, but beyond that his future will depend on his MPs – specifically, whether they choose to fire the starting gun on a leadership challenge or whether they can talk him into announcing his resignation as leader of the party, thereby triggering a leadership election.

Labour’s 2024 manifesto front cover simply read “Change”, but in recent weeks politics has felt uncomfortably reminiscent of 2022. That is Labour’s problem.

Thomas Caygill has previously received funding from the British Academy/Leverhulme Trust and the Economic and Social Research Council.

– ref. How much trouble is Keir Starmer in? – https://theconversation.com/how-much-trouble-is-keir-starmer-in-275292

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Polina Zelmanova, PhD Candidate in Film and Television Studies, University of Warwick

One thing Bridgerton has unquestionably mastered is the depiction of sex. This season, women’s pleasure once again takes centre stage with several conversations about orgasms, or “pinnacles” and several references to past steamy scenes, including last season’s infamous carriage exchange.

Sex is everywhere. It spills out of every image, from every surface. The glistening chandeliers, colourful flower arrangements, lights and decoration all contribute to the horny mise-en-scene. The combination of framing, lighting, colour, performance and production design combine to create a sexy vibe.

Within such excess, small gestures take on a new erotic significance – a gentle kiss on the wrist, a touch of fingertips, a glance across the room. All of this contributes to a feminine model of desire that is multi-orgasmic, expanding pleasure across the screen rather than containing it to an individual sex scene. The fourth season of Bridgerton does not disappoint on this front.

This season’s central romance is inspired by the Cinderella trope, where class and social division are the main obstacles for the lovers. It raises a timely discussion of power, particularly pertinent to depictions of sex in a post #MeToo era.

A Cinderella story

This season focuses on the second eldest son, Benedict Bridgerton (Luke Thompson), and is so far adapted quite closely from Julia Quinn’s third Bridgerton novel An Offer from a Gentleman. Benedict is a self-proclaimed “lover of pleasure, a free spirit, untrammelled by mere convention”.

Pursuing a career as an artist, Benedict has come to be known as a bohemian of sorts. His queerness and ventures into non-monogamy are outside understandings of permissible relationships within Regency society. And, although it’s time for this rake to settle down, Benedict stays true to his rebellious nature.

Meeting at a masked ball, Benedict instantly falls for a charming and mysterious woman in silver. But when the clock strikes 12, she flees without revealing her identity, leaving behind only a satin glove and the traces of a passionate kiss that leaves them both in a state of perpetual yearning. And so, the “prince’s” quest for his mysterious maiden begins.

While Benedict is left love struck and confused, the mystery woman rushes home to assume her true identity as a maid. Despite the familiar setup, Sophie Baek (Yerin Ha) is wonderfully defiant and outspoken, aligning with a more modern tradition of Cinderellas that reject the original character’s subservience and passivity.

A glimpse below stairs

For the first time Bridgerton shows us the well-oiled machine of the servants’ quarters to which Sophie belongs. This season attempts a social critique of the class structures that, until this point, has remained peripheral.

From baking and cleaning to arranging secret sexual rendezvous for their employers, servants are seen as crucial to the opulent world we have experienced so far. So crucial, in fact, that when one house poaches a handful of vital servants, they set off what gossipmonger Lady Whistledown calls “the maid wars”. These poaching leave the ton (fashionable high society of Regency-era England) aflutter, with some houses poaching in turn and others becoming more appreciative of their labour.

This upstairs-downstairs glimpse contextualises the obstacles that this season’s couple face and the power dynamics that are at play.

When they meet again, unmasked, Benedict doesn’t recognise Sophie. Despite his loyalty to his mystery lady and the fact of Sophie being a maid, he falls in love anew – leaving him in a predicament.

“We must marry according to class, but we do not always love that way,” Benedict’s friend Will Mondrich tells him. Previously, his siblings Anthony and Eloise found themselves unsuccessful in their pursuit of relationships outside of their class. This is not a hopeful precedent for Benedict.

However, desire is hard to ignore and as their feelings grow hotter, the threat of scandal looms large. With the family reputation at stake and sisters still to wed, reality leaves him with no other option at the end of part one than to pop the critical question: “Will you be my mistress?”

Mistresses were women who had arrangements with wealthy and upper-class men, offering their sexual and social services in exchange for financial benefits and comfort. Despite potential privileges, these women were excluded from polite society and could never hope to legitimise their relationship through marriage, leaving them at the mercy of their “protector”.

A very indecent proposal indeed.

It also, sadly, brings things full circle. When Benedict re-meets Sophie, she is defending another maid from unwanted advances from their master. Her act of denial and defiance ends with both of their dismissals. Although Benedict saves her, securing her a job in his family home, and his advances are (somewhat) wanted, he ultimately puts her in a similar position.

The sexual encounter between the pair takes place on the staircase that separates the upstairs from downstairs, reminding us of the class conflict that is an obstacle to the longevity and legitimacy of their relationship.

Although Sophie is undeniably into Benedict, the wise housekeeper Mrs Crabtree warns Benedict that their difference in social station means that Sophie doesn’t really have the freedom to say no to him.

Benedict does not heed this warning and pushes on with his proposal, despite Sophie’s explicit statements about not wanting to risk the best job she’s ever had. With this proposal, his class power means he has everything to gain, and Sophie everything to lose. At the end of part one, Sophie is back where she started: the desires of a rich man threatening her stable employment and safety.

Although we see her reject Benedict’s offer, with part two still to come, Sophie is faced with the harsh reality of the limited options available to a woman of her stature when it comes to love. The question remains as to how the show will resolve this tension, and whether Sophie’s identity as an illegitimate heiress may be the secret ingredient to this Cinderella’s happy ending.

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Polina Zelmanova receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council to support the research undertaken as part of her PhD.

– ref. Bridgerton season four explores sexual and class power dynamics more than any season before – https://theconversation.com/bridgerton-season-four-explores-sexual-and-class-power-dynamics-more-than-any-season-before-274997

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Keren MacLennan, Lecturer in Psychology, University of Bath

In the academic year so far, the proportion of children who are “persistently absent” from schools in England – missing at least 10% of school sessions – stands at 19.5%. This is up from last year – and significantly higher than the 10.5% who were persistently absent before the pandemic.

The UK government’s “back to school” call in 2025 proposed a crackdown on “bad behaviour” to address this issue and get children back into classrooms. But a focus on bad behaviour may be missing the mark. Research suggests that in the majority of cases, school absence is underpinned by severe school distress and anxiety. Even more alarming is that many of these children are autistic.

Our schools and education system have not been designed for autistic children, who have neurological or thinking styles that diverge from what society sees as typical.

Up to 94% of autistic people have divergent sensory processing. This means that sensory information, such as loud sounds, bright lights and strong scents, can be distressing and overwhelming. In busy classrooms, dining halls and playgrounds, children are exposed to an onslaught of unpredictable and inescapable sensory information that becomes overwhelming across the day. This has been reported as a key reason autistic children experience distress and anxiety in school.

Here are the types of sensory information that autistic children tend to find more distressing, as well as some ways to support these challenges.

Sounds

Sudden and loud sounds, as well as environments with layers of different background noise, are commonly distressing for autistic people. Classrooms, dining halls and playgrounds have complex soundscapes with lots of chatter and noise from chairs and objects being moved about. There are also sudden sounds that can startle autistic children. These can include school bells, doors banging or teachers raising their voice or clapping to get the attention of pupils.

In research my colleagues and I carried out, autistic people, parents and teachers reported loud classrooms as the top contributor to school anxiety. But even in a quiet classroom, autistic children may struggle to filter out more subtle sounds, such as the buzzing from lights, clocks ticking, pens tapping and people whispering. These can also affect an autistic child’s ability to focus on their work.

Allowing children to listen to music with noise-cancelling headphones, use ear defenders or plugs, or sit somewhere quiet if the noise becomes overwhelming can help address these challenges.

Sights

Bright lighting, especially if it is artificial or fluorescent, can cause distress for autistic people. Classrooms and dining halls often have bright overhead lighting and children do not have the control to lower the lighting levels. Classroom walls are also often covered with busy display boards. This can cause distraction for all children, but especially autistic children.

This could be mitigated by allowing children to wear tinted glasses or to sit away from direct sunlight or bright overhead lighting.

Smells

Many autistic people can struggle with strong food smells, as well as cleaning products and perfumes. In schools, children can be exposed to food smells from canteens and packed lunches. There may also be a range of smells arising from peers and teachers, such as perfumes, coffee or body odour.

Having the option of a place to eat away from the canteen or large groups of other children could help autistic children cope with this.

Touch

Scratchy clothing fabrics and clothing labels are challenging for many autistic people. Mandatory school uniforms can cause distress for autistic children. They have limited choice in fabric and styles. Some elements of the uniform, such as blazers or school ties, may come with no choice at all.

Allowing some flexibility over clothing choices and cutting labels out of clothes could help here.

Making sensory-inclusive schools

Beyond individual support strategies, a range of steps can help make schools more sensory-inclusive. Providing flexible access to low-sensory spaces, such as rooms or dens, allows children to take breaks to recover from sensory information when they feel overwhelmed. In an ideal world, lighting and sound absorption would be improved, but at the very least sensory-inclusive design should be considered when new schools are being built.

There is also still widespread misunderstanding of autism and sensory challenges in schools. Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, declared in November 2025 that children wearing ear defenders in a classroom is “insane” and has “got to stop”. But these sensory aids are essential for some children to attend school. Implementing evidence-based training for school staff and pupils on neurodiversity and autism, as well as training on sensory-inclusive spaces, can increase understanding and acceptance.

Importantly, this issue spreads beyond our schools. Many spaces in our communities pose sensory challenges – creating barriers to vital services and affecting mental health. The sensory environment affects everyone, so by making spaces more sensory-inclusive for autistic people, we may also make spaces better for all.

Keren MacLennan has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and Research England.

– ref. Schools aren’t designed for autistic children – these are the sensory challenges they face – https://theconversation.com/schools-arent-designed-for-autistic-children-these-are-the-sensory-challenges-they-face-273498

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Umair Choksy, Senior Lecturer in Management, University of Stirling

For more than a year, major institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been warning that rising tariffs and policy uncertainty would stifle global growth. This is reflected in the ways governments have been deploying tariffs unpredictably. Notably, the US has increasingly deployed threats and sudden tariff swings as tools in broader disputes.

Recent global trade updates from the likes of UN Trade & Development (UNCTAD) suggest this uncertainty is not fading. This reinforces the sense that trade volatility has become a lasting feature in the world economy rather than a temporary shock.

Contrast this unsettling picture with the strength of global trade and economic growth. One WTO report has noted that global trade volumes grew strongly in the first half of 2025, and projects that it will have been even stronger in late 2025. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) similarly notes that the global economy has shown “resilience” to trade shocks, even as the damage from shifting policies is starting to appear in more recent data.

While some interpret this as proof that the global economy can simply shrug off trade shocks, others have issued a warning. The global economy only appears resilient to tariffs; in reality, short-term offsets such as changing suppliers or altering supply chains have masked damage that will surface later through slower growth, higher costs and declining living standards. Over time, this damage will show up in everyday life – in what people pay, how secure their jobs feel, and how far their wages stretch.

My research on resilience in global supply chains has found that it is not something that businesses can achieve once and then forget about. What is happening now is not resilience, but temporary adjustments.

Imagine a supermarket that suddenly faces higher import costs on fruit because of tariffs or trade restrictions. At first, it does not redesign its entire supply network. Instead, it might buy from a different country for a few months or dip into existing stock in warehouses or distribution centres.

But if costs and availability remain in doubt, these temporary fixes stop working. Stock runs out. Emergency suppliers cost more. And when margins are squeezed for long enough, businesses respond by raising prices, freezing hiring, cutting hours, delaying pay rises or shedding jobs altogether. This is why resilience must be understood as a continuous process.

The same logic applies at national level. For countries like the UK, resilience to changing trade conditions means maintaining the ability to adjust repeatedly without exhausting households through ongoing cost-of-living pressures, income volatility and prolonged uncertainty about jobs and pay.

But when politicians interpret trade shocks as short-lived (as happened in the wake of Brexit), they tend to delay intervention. This could be holding back sector-specific support, postponing investment or relying on firms to absorb costs. This shifts the burden down the chain. Businesses protect their margins by passing costs on, and households become the shock-absorbers.

Tariffs and inequality

One lesson from my research is that some regions and communities are far more sensitive to tariffs and trade friction than others. This has the potential to deepen regional inequality, concentrating job losses and price pressures in already vulnerable areas.

For example, London and the south-east are less exposed to the direct impact of tariffs than many other parts of the country because their economies are dominated by services and finance.

Regions with more manufacturing and exports – such as the West Midlands, east of England, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England – rely more heavily on goods that face tariff barriers, such as cars and machinery. This means employment and business incomes can be more directly affected.

Addressing this imbalance requires more than a one-size-fits-all approach to trade policy. I have found that what matters is helping regions (and businesses in those regions) build resilience in ways that match the kind of disruption they face.

In practice, this depends on how often and how hard they are hit by tariffs. In places where trade costs rise repeatedly, businesses need support that helps them to keep operating without cutting jobs or squeezing pay every time costs increase. That means access to finance, help with managing cost pressures, and support that allows employers to retain workers when margins tighten.

In regions where tariff shocks are less frequent but still disruptive (as has happened to the US itself in its trade war with China), businesses need early signals about where pressures are emerging, and government support when costs spike. Without targeted backing, businesses pass costs on in the easiest way possible – through higher prices, delayed wage rises or job losses. When government treats resilience as a national average, it risks overlooking those places where adjusting is hardest and most costly.

Global trade uncertainty is going to continue. As such, policy needs to be designed for endurance rather than optimism. That involves shifting the focus away from short-term trade volumes and towards reducing the pressure of repeated tariff adjustments before they reach households. That means acting earlier in regions and sectors repeatedly exposed to disruption, rather than waiting for rising prices and job losses to hit households.

Umair Choksy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tariffs might seem manageable now – but they’ll quietly squeeze households later – https://theconversation.com/tariffs-might-seem-manageable-now-but-theyll-quietly-squeeze-households-later-274594

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Enrique Castañón Ballivián, Lecturer in International Development, UCL

Bolivia’s political landscape has changed dramatically since August 2025, when a general election ended the Movement for Socialism (Mas) party’s rule after nearly two decades. Its presence in Congress has all but vanished, with rightwing parties now commanding an overwhelming majority.

The new president, Rodrigo Paz Pereira, campaigned with the rightwing populist slogan: fé, familia y patria (faith, family and homeland). He swept to victory in large part due to the widespread popularity of his running mate and now vice-president, Edmand Lara.

As the son of former Bolivian president Jaime Paz Zamora, who led Bolivia from 1989 to 1993, Paz Pereira represents a new generation of the country’s traditional political elite. But Lara, a former police captain who has become prominent on social media since 2023, comes from the popular classes.

The unlikely pair benefited from a strong desire among the Bolivian people for change amid a severe economic crisis marked by a shortage of US dollars and annual inflation of nearly 20%. They also took advantage of widespread distrust of reticence towards politicians from previous governments.

In his November inaugural address, Paz Pereira denounced that Mas had left what he called an estado tranca (obstructing state). He pledged to replace it with a smaller, technocratic state capable of attracting foreign investment. This model of state reform is part of his broader neoliberal project of “capitalism for all”, an ill-defined entrepreneurial vision that celebrates informality.

Paz Pereira’s government soon revealed the contours of its economic and political agenda in Decree 5503. The decree included over 100 articles covering numerous issues such as fuel subsidies, taxes, emergency powers, resource governance and fiscal and monetary policy.

The government presented the decree almost exclusively as a measure to end longstanding fossil fuel subsidies. These subsidies, which were introduced in 1997, had become largely unsustainable with the decline of Bolivia’s gas exports since 2017. The decree ended the subsidies, replacing them with modest increments to the minimum salary and state pensions.

Other, more problematic elements of the decree that overlooked established procedures and the stipulations of Bolivia’s constitution were soon exposed. These included measures to grant the government emergency powers without the required justification, as well as major changes to the nationwide tax regime without legislative approval.

The decree also introduced extraordinary powers for the central bank to acquire limitless external debt without mechanisms of democratic control. And it established a “fast track” mechanism for the approval of contracts for the extraction of strategic natural resources. Contracts would be awarded without legislative oversight or the required processes of environmental impact assessment and informed consent of Indigenous people.

Such a “fast track” mechanism openly revived what was known as the entreguista character of the Bolivian state, which had historically been prevalent under elite rule. This is a term used throughout Latin America to criticise governments or policies perceived as giving away a country’s national interests by, for example, surrendering control of natural resources.

Bolivia is home to the world’s largest known lithium deposit in the department of Potosí, estimated at 23 million tonnes. Lithium is a critical component in the batteries that power electric vehicles and smartphones, as well as in high-tech weapons systems. Bolivia is also well-endowed with other critical minerals such as tin, silver and antimony.

Nationalist movements have fiercely opposed entreguista policies in Bolivia before. These movements have inspired major political events, including a revolution in 1952 that overthrew the ruling oligarchy.

They also led to the so-called water and gas wars in 2000 and 2003. These were periods of social unrest arising over government plans to privatise the water supply in the central city of Cochabamba and export natural gas through Chile, respectively.

As noted in 2006 by Tom Perreault, a researcher at Syracuse University in New York, Bolivian people see tin or gas “not only as natural resources, but as national resources as well, that is, resources that properly belong to the nation and its people”.

This sentiment was captured recently by Bolivian researcher Gustavo Calle. In an article published on January 13, he said that by suggesting strategic resources will be exploited by foreign companies without meaningful control, Decree 5503 touched “the most sensitive vein of the popular nationalism”.

Repealing the decree

Two days after the government published the decree on December 17, Bolivia’s main workers’ organisation, the Bolivian Workers’ Centre, declared a general strike. It asked its members to mobilise, demanding the abrogation of the decree.

Then, on January 5, the largest Indigenous organisations joined the protests. They paralysed the country with more than 50 road blockades. And a march named “Bolivia is not for sale” later entered the capital city of La Paz, bringing together numerous sectors of society.

Paz Pereira portrayed the leaders of the mobilisation as reckless individuals defending their own privileges. He also pledged not to back down against “criminals”. But after nearly 28 days of protests, the government finally conceded and abrogated the decree on January 11.

The government’s image has taken a hit. However, unlike the government during the gas war, its legitimacy has not been challenged. That period of unrest ultimately resulted in the resignation of President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada.

Paz Pereira’s defeat is also only partial. The elimination of the fossil fuel subsidies has now been consolidated. And the government is currently preparing a new authoritarian law to sanction road blockages as criminal offences.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Paz Pereira also sought to portray the popular opposition to his entreguista policies as being carried out by a mere minority of former Mas leader Evo Morales’ followers.

In the absence of an alternative political project, the new government appears to be in a strong position to impose its agenda. Yet the strength and explosive potential of resource nationalist sentiments in the country should not be discounted.

Enrique Castañón Ballivián does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Bolivia’s ‘capitalism for all’ project sparks backlash for selling-out on natural resources – https://theconversation.com/bolivias-capitalism-for-all-project-sparks-backlash-for-selling-out-on-natural-resources-275009

Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Oxborough, Professor of Echocardiography and Cardiovascular Physiology, Liverpool John Moores University

Image and performance-enhancing drugs (IPEDs), such as steroids and human growth hormone, can harm the heart – and it isn’t just elite bodybuilders who are at risk.

With a growing number of everyday gym-goers taking these drugs to improve their fitness or enhance their appearance, what was once a niche issue in competitive sports is quickly becoming a wider public health concern.

For decades, bodybuilders and athletes have used IPEDs including anabolic steroids, human growth hormone, peptides and selective androgen receptor modulators (SARMs), to increase muscle size, boost strength and improve physical appearance.

But in recent years, the number of regular gym-goers using IPEDs has become a growing concern. Estimates from 2014 suggested around 3% of regular gym-goers globally used IPEDs. These figures are now more than ten years old and probably underestimate current use.

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Read more:
Peptides: performance-boosting, anti-ageing drugs or dangerous snake oil?

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Although the demand to have an unrealistic, idealised body has existed for generations, social media has amplified these pressures. Social media has also made it easier to access IPEDs. These factors might help to explain why people who use apps such as TikTok and Instagram are more likely to use anabolic steroids.

But while social media may be normalising the use of IPEDs to achieve the perfect physique and peak fitness, it’s important gym-goers know about the serious costs these drugs can have on heart health.

Research from Italy shows that competitive male bodybuilders who use IPEDs have a ten-times higher risk of sudden cardiac death compared with athletes who don’t use performance-enhancing drugs.

Studies have shown that female athletes who use IPEDs also have a higher risk of sudden cardiac death compared to non-users – though their risk is slightly (7%) lower compared to men.

These deaths are linked to a range of heart conditions caused or worsened by IPED use. These include cardiomyopathy (disease of the heart muscle), myocardial fibrosis (scarring of the heart), abnormal thickening of the heart wall, early-onset coronary artery disease, heart rhythm disturbances and stroke.

Research shows anabolic steroids can alter cell signalling pathways involved in heart growth and remodelling, disrupt hormonal regulation and increase blood pressure. Steroids can also cause adverse changes in lipid (fat) levels that cause plaques (fatty deposits) to form in the arteries.

Together, these changes weaken the heart and make it less efficient at supplying the body with blood. Even in people who appear fit, this hidden damage can leave the heart more vulnerable to failure, rhythm problems and sudden cardiac events.

These findings are deeply concerning – not just for elite bodybuilders, but for regular gym users who may be taking unregulated drugs with little awareness of the risks.

Heart changes

At Liverpool John Moores University, we have spent the past six years studying heart health in people who use IPEDs. Our research looked at around 100 users, most in their early 30s, ranging from elite bodybuilders to recreational gym users. These users were then compared against non-users.

We used electrocardiography (ECG), which records the heart’s electrical activity, and echocardiography, an ultrasound scan of the heart. These tools allowed us to assess all four chambers of the heart and detect early signs of heart problems that may not yet be causing symptoms.

We found that IPED users had a larger and heavier left ventricle (the main pumping chamber of the heart). This was due to having a bigger cavity and thicker heart muscle. Notably, these differences in heart shape and structure still existed, even after accounting for increased body size.

Importantly, these changes are linked to reduced heart function. Using advanced imaging techniques, we were then able to show subtle but significant impairments in how the left ventricle contracted and relaxed.

Our research has also identified increased stiffness of the left atrium (the chamber that receives blood from the lungs). This feature is often only seen in the early stages of heart disease.

Similar harmful effects are also seen on the right side of the heart, which plays a key role in pumping blood to the lungs – showing that IPED use affects all chambers of the heart.

Most of the participants in our studies had used a median weekly dose of 1108mg for around seven years – a dose consistent with the typical doses used by the bodybuilding community. The higher the dose and the longer these drugs are used are linked with more negative changes in the heart.

The next step of our research is to examine how a typical four to five month drug “cycle” – a period where users progressively increase the dose and number of substances they use to reach a peak in physique or dose – affects heart structure and function. We especially want to know how it affects the way the heart responds during exercise.

We also plan to look at female IPED users, a group that has largely been overlooked in previous research.

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Read more:
More women are using steroids – and many don’t know the risks

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Reducing risk starts with stopping IPED use – or avoiding them to begin with. While this is the most effective way to reduce risk, harm-reduction approaches such as reducing dose, avoiding black-market drugs, addressing psychological drivers of use, and regular heart screening may help limit damage and encourage safer choices.

However, we still know very little about whether heart damage improves after cessation, particularly after years of use. To address this, our research group plans to follow a group of users for the next ten to 20 years.

With more than one million IPED users in the UK, this is rapidly becoming a significant public health issue. Raising awareness of the harms of IPED use is critical.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. From bodybuilding to the local gym: how performance-enhancing drugs can damage the heart – https://theconversation.com/from-bodybuilding-to-the-local-gym-how-performance-enhancing-drugs-can-damage-the-heart-273273

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology, University of Reading

An environmental expert from Nigeria, a climate policy consultant from Kenya, an oceanographer from Indonesia and an Indigenous social development specialist from the Philippines will are among dozens of experts in the UK this month as the UN’s top climate body meets to rewrite the the rules for compiling the world’s most important climate reports.

The workshops at the University of Reading from February 10 to 12 will lay the groundwork for bringing diverse knowledge into the next report by the UN climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The seventh assessment report, known as AR7, will be published in 2028 and finalised the following year.

There are two big themes under discussion. One workshop examines how artificial intelligence (AI) tools can help scientists review growing volumes of climate research. AI is revolutionising scientific research, with its ability to conduct faster analysis of complex data than traditional computer models. AI weather and climate models are already becoming integrated into the information provided through meteorological services such as the Met Office.

Another workshop explores how Indigenous and local knowledge can be integrated into these assessments alongside standard scientific findings. For decades, IPCC reports have been built primarily on peer-reviewed scientific papers from academic institutions, mostly in the world’s wealthier nations. These workshops explore how to better include Indigenous knowledge, local observations and expertise from communities that are experiencing climate change first hand.

This could not come at a more important time. A few weeks ago, the US withdrew its participation from the IPCC process. Now, a new cadre of experts from across the world are coming to the UK to make climate science more inclusive and AR7 preparation continues with 195 member countries. The work goes on, but the US absence leaves gaps in emissions reporting and funding.

Credible, yet unconventional

Bringing in diverse voices is essential to the report’s success. If IPCC reports reflect only one way of understanding the world, they can miss crucial insights. As other sectors have found again and again, a lack of diversity in the workforce leads to a lack of insight. The environment sector remains one of the least diverse, with only 3.5% of people working in environmental jobs identifying as being from an ethnic minority. Diverse voices and critical discussions are key to making robust, inclusive and future-proof decisions.

Through my work developing flood forecasting systems across Africa, Asia and Latin America, I’ve learned this directly. After Cyclone Idai hit Mozambique in 2019, the Global Flood Awareness System, a service that provides openly accessible information about upcoming floods across the world, was used to help target relief where it was most needed.

In Uganda, working with the humanitarian agency Uganda Red Cross and the Red Cross Climate Centre, our forecasts helped 5,000 people evacuate before roads were cut. In Bangladesh’s river basins, improving forecasts meant understanding how communities interpret flood risk. In Kenya, choosing the right forecasting approach required learning from the people who have lived with these rivers for generations.

Climate science has traditionally valued certain types of expertise. Peer-reviewed papers and university credentials do matter. But expertise also comes from generations of farmers building up understanding of local weather patterns or Indigenous knowledge about the land, forests and rivers. Scientific models, combined with community knowledge, produce better outcomes than either alone.

For the result of its latest report to be credible, the IPCC needs the best evidence from all sources, because that is what produces the best science.

Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, local and national governments and humanitarian agencies on the forecasting and warning of natural hazards. She is a member of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council and a fellow of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Her research is funded by the UKRI Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council, the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the European Commission.

– ref. How diverse voices are transforming the UN’s climate science – https://theconversation.com/how-diverse-voices-are-transforming-the-uns-climate-science-275259

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Joey Baxter, PhD Candidate in Biosciences, University of Sheffield

When we think about birds, we often picture their colourful plumage: the iridescence of a peacock’s tail or the electric blue flash of a kingfisher. Or we might consider how they use voices, from the song of the nightingale to the coo of a dove or the shriek of a jay.

So it’s easy to imagine that vision and hearing must be the senses these birds use to explore their environment and interact with each other. However, smell is also vital to birds for navigating, foraging and even communicating. Yet this sense is often underestimated or ignored entirely.

Some of the blame for this long-standing underestimation can be assigned to influential 19th century naturalists like John James Audobon, whose early experiments on turkey vultures led him to conclude that they could not smell and must use sight to locate their carcass suppers.

He presented vultures with paintings of dead sheep, which they pecked away at. But when he shrouded putrid carrion with plant material the vultures ignored it. However, later work revealed flaws in Audobon’s research – these birds prefer fresher meat and locate it using scent, even when it is visually obscured.

The turkey vulture’s keen sense of smell was put to use by oil company engineers in 1930s California. Workers were having trouble with leaks along a 42-mile-long natural gas pipeline but noticed that vultures would often congregate around these leaks. Natural gas alone is odourless, but a chemical called ethyl mercaptan is added so humans can detect its distinctive eggy smell at close range. Ethyl mercaptan is also released by decomposing meat, so vultures associate it with food. The engineers used this to their advantage, intentionally pumping through large doses of ethyl mercaptan and observing the vultures to pinpoint and repair leaks.

More recently, research has explored the many ways that birds use their sense of smell in the wild. At the University of Sheffield, I am investigating whether long-tailed tits, a small UK garden bird, might use their sense of smell to recognise family members. Like we humans often help close family with childcare, long-tailed tits will feed chicks belonging to siblings, parents and children during the breeding season. How these little birds identify who is and isn’t a close relative is not entirely clear yet, but their scents may hold the key.

Starlings and blue tits, meanwhile, use scent to seek out aromatic plants such as yarrow, hogweed and elder, which they weave into their nests. The strong-smelling compounds in these plants defend their chicks against parasites, in the same way that we might use citronella to ward off mosquitoes.

Hoopoe chicks manufacture their own chemical defences. These are colourful birds with a long, curved bill and a distinctive orange crown of feathers. Young hoopoes produce a thick, dark, foul-smelling substance called preen oil from a gland just above their tail that contains bacteria. These beneficial bacteria break the preen oil down into pungent chemicals that keep germs at bay.

New Zealand’s national icon, the flightless kiwi, is mostly nocturnal and feeds on worms and insects found underground, so cannot rely on vision when foraging. Instead, kiwis have nostrils at the very tip of their long bills, which they probe the earth with to sniff out their subterranean prey.

Crested auklets are small, black seabirds that smell like tangerines. This odour is produced by special feathers and is involved in social communication. Both male and female auklets will rub their bills into the nape of another bird’s neck to get a good whiff, using this smell to assess their quality as a potential mate. So, it pays to produce a good strong dose of this natural cologne.

Petrels and shearwaters fly across hundreds of kilometres of open ocean in search of sustenance, using their sense of smell to detect dimethyl sulfide (DMS), a chemical produced by phytoplankton (microscopic plant-like organisms). The odour of this chemical, often compared to that of boiled cabbage, signals where in the sea is likely to be rich with food. Additionally, the varying intensity of this chemical allows them to create an olfactory map in their heads for navigating back to their nests on land.

Sadly, this impressive olfactory ability can land these birds in trouble. Ocean plastic causes blooms of phytoplankton, which pump DMS into the air in unusual quantities. Seabirds can be confused by these chemicals that are usually associated with food and will often consume the plastic, which can be fatal. Because of their reliance on scent for foraging, DMS-sensitive birds, which also include albatrosses, are nearly six times more likely than other species to ingest plastic.

Like birds, humans have been historically underappreciated when it comes to smell. An idea that – again – largely stems from the pontifications of 19th century scientists.

Humans, however, are sensitive to an enormous range of odours. One experiment showed that, when blindfolded, human participants could track the scent of chocolate across a field. We use our sense of smell all the time in our daily lives – sometimes without fully realising it – in avoiding danger (noticing the smell of smoke), selecting food (passing up off milk or picking a particularly ripe orange) or even choosing a partner. Research suggests people are often drawn to the odour of those with a very different set of immune genes to their own.

So, even for animals that don’t have a dominant sense of smell, odours form a key part of the way they interact with the world.

Joey Baxter receives funding from UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), via the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).

– ref. The brilliant and bizarre ways birds use their sense of smell – from natural cologne to pest control – https://theconversation.com/the-brilliant-and-bizarre-ways-birds-use-their-sense-of-smell-from-natural-cologne-to-pest-control-274571