Orbán’s election loss frees up €90 billion for Kyiv but raises thorny question of EU membership for Ukraine

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

As widely expected, the EU has unlocked the disbursement of its previously agreed €90 billion (£78 billion) loan to Ukraine.

Together with the approval of the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, this is good news for Brussels. It became possible after Hungary dropped its opposition following a change of government after recent parliamentary elections.

How many more such decisions the union will be able to make, and how fast, remains to be seen. Former Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán may have been the most vocal disrupter of the EU’s Ukraine policy, but he was not the only one. Former close allies of his – Andrej Babiš in the Czech Republic and Robert Fico in Slovakia – stay in power.

Another election in Bulgaria on April 19 returned the arguably Russia-leaning former president, Rumen Radev, as the likely next prime minister in Sofia. None of these are as explicitly hardline as Orbán was. But their combined ability to at least water down EU policy – limiting or conditioning aid for Ukraine and potentially delaying or softening sanctions on Russia – remains real.

So, for Ukraine the news is also rather more mixed than the headline of the end of the Hungarian veto would suggest. Granted, the disbursement of the €90 billion will help Kyiv plug critical financing gaps over the next several years.

Orbán’s exit doesn’t deal with other critical challenges in the EU-Ukraine relationship, especially regarding the divergent views on Ukraine’s path to EU membership.

Apart from Kyiv’s most ardent Baltic supporters, scepticism about Ukraine’s membership abounds. Some EU member states – like France and Germany – have already made it clear where they stand regarding the union’s future relationship with Ukraine. For them, it’s about due process and avoiding shortcuts. At best, they seem to contemplate a somewhat enhanced status for Ukraine within the EU in the interim.

Others hold more Ukraine-sceptical positions, especially regarding certain policy areas that they consider core national interests. For example, with parliamentary elections in Poland scheduled for 2027, it is unlikely that even the current clearly pro-European government of Donald Tusk will endorse the early and full access for Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU market or the application of the bloc’s common agricultural policy.

This scepticism in national capitals potentially also complicates relations between member states and EU institutions in Brussels. After a meeting on the sidelines of the EU leaders summit, European Council president António Costa, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky called “for the opening of negotiation clusters without delay”. But the power to decide on this lies with member states’ foreign ministers who are likely to vote on the issue at the end of May. If they approve, this will be the next important move in Ukraine’s accession process. But it’s only the first step in what could be a prolonged journey.

Common cause

Zelensky’s ambition to achieve membership by 2030 now seems more unrealistic than ever. With his timeline knocked off course and even the terms of membership unclear, the question arises how Ukrainians will respond to this.

The EU and Ukraine both see Russia as an existential threat. And both agree that Ukrainians’ defence of their country is crucial for European security. This has made it easy to reach an understanding that Europe will financially and politically support Ukraine’s effort to defeat Russia and open the doors to EU membership.

This basic understanding remains intact. But translating it into concrete policies has revealed important divisions about the (affordability of) financial commitments and the timelines and conditions for Ukraine’s EU accession.

Compromise position?

As always, the EU will hash out a compromise that articulates the lowest common denominator between those that prefer a swift accession for Ukraine, and those that oppose the watering down of accession conditions. It remains to be seen whether this compromise will be palatable to Ukrainians. Individual Ukrainians would gain access to the benefits of EU citizenship – the ability to live and work in the EU. But Ukraine as a country would not enjoy the benefits of full and equal state membership – including voting rights on EU legislation and the automatic disbursement of EU structural funds.

It’s questionable whether this is economically viable for Ukraine. The country has already suffered a serious loss of human capital – on the frontlines and through emigration. If this were to continue, let alone accelerate if Ukraine’s young people were offered free movement, it would seriously weaken the country’s resilience in the face of Russia’s continuing onslaught.

This, in turn, could add to narratives inside and outside Ukraine that question the possibility of continued resistance and urge seeking a settlement with Russia. Pro-Russian arguments could well be strengthened by blaming the EU for weakening Ukraine by luring its young and talented workforce into the bloc while denying full membership to Ukraine as a country, casting further doubt about the dependability of the west as a credible partner.

Declining trust in the EU and a desire for rapprochement with Russia would ultimately reinforce the idea of positioning Ukraine as a bridge between Russia and the west. This was the approach tried, under significantly better circumstances, in the first two decades after Ukraine’s independence.

As the EU-27 decide how to move forward, they need to remember that this Ukraine-as-a-bridge approach already failed once in 2014 – with the devastating consequences of this failure only becoming fully apparent in 2022. There is nothing to suggest that this approach would fare any better if it were tried again.

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Orbán’s election loss frees up €90 billion for Kyiv but raises thorny question of EU membership for Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/orbans-election-loss-frees-up-90-billion-for-kyiv-but-raises-thorny-question-of-eu-membership-for-ukraine-281275

Pets, plants and a ‘coming-of-old-age’ story – what to see and watch this week

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Walker, Senior Arts + Culture Editor, The Conversation

This curation of The Conversation UK’s arts and culture coverage was first published in our fortnightly newsletter, Something Good.

Hollywood still has an aversion to telling older women’s stories.

Research has found that older women are frequently relegated to supporting roles, or portrayed as grumpy, frumpy or senile. So when I saw the Brazilian film The Blue Trail at the Leeds Film Festival earlier this year, it felt like a breath of fresh air.

Tereza (Denise Weinberg) lives in a chilling near-future where a totalitarian regime forcibly removes anyone over 75, relocating them to remote colonies without consultation or consent. Faced with this looming threat of exclusion and invisibility as she turns 77, Tereza refuses to comply. Instead, she embarks on a surreal journey along the Amazon River to chase one final dream before she is “put out to pasture”. As she takes the steering wheel of a boat she has commandeered to engineer her escape, she also takes control of her life.

The trailer for The Blue Trail.

Throughout the film, Tereza proves younger people’s assumptions about her body wrong. When she is forced to wear an adult nappy she clearly doesn’t need, she uses it to kick-start her escape. When others assume she is ready to end her life quietly, she instead embarks on a surprising and thrilling new love affair. The Blue Trail affirms the joy and novelty that can be found at any age and offers a damning indictment of ageism across the world.

The Blue Trail is in select cinemas now and streaming on Prime Video.




Read more:
The Blue Trail is a dystopian ‘coming-of-old-age’ gem


Pets and plants

I adopted a cat in January and already I can’t remember life without her. Cheddar naps on my lap while I work (when she’s not disturbing Zoom calls with her acrobatics) and snuggles up to watch films in the evening (Flow was a particular favourite). So I’m intrigued by Pets & Their People, an exhibition at Oxford’s Bodleian Library that asks big questions about our furry (or feathered) companions.

What motivates pet owners – and when did we begin turning wild animals into the “fur babies” of the family? Equally importantly, what’s in it for the animals? Were their wild ancestors lured in by the promise of a warm fire, perhaps in exchange for catching mice or guarding livestock? Or did they deliberately ingratiate themselves into our homes and affections, offering companionship, comfort and even therapy?

Philip Howell, a professor who researches animal-human relations, described the exhibition as “wonderful”. He left reflecting that being human may involve “looking at our pets and asking what separates us from them”.

Pets & their People is at the Bodleian Library in Oxford until September 27.




Read more:
Pets & their People explores the long, strange history of human-animal companionship


The Garden Museum is something of an overlooked gem among London’s museums. Housed in a deconsecrated church in Lambeth, it’s a beautiful space that explores the history of flora and fauna and how they’ve shaped human society. The museum’s latest exhibition, Seeds of Exchange centres on a short-lived but fascinating collaboration between an English botanist and his Chinese counterparts. Together, they documented the plant life of Canton (modern-day Guangzhou) at a time when global trade, science and empire were becoming deeply intertwined. Our reviewer, botanist Max Carter-Brown, found it “fascinating”.

Seeds of Exchange: Canton and London in the 1700s is at the Garden Museum until May 10 2026.




Read more:
Seeds of Exchange reveals the untold story of the plant collectors who connected Canton and London in the 18th century


Fashion and freedom

Another London exhibition, Queen Elizabeth II: Her Life in Style at The King’s Gallery, Buckingham Palace, marks the centenary of the late monarch’s birth with the largest display of her wardrobe ever mounted.

The result, says fashion expert Hannah Rumball-Croft, is “a masterclass in what the Royal Palaces do best: celebrating the British monarchy – its pomp, pageantry and performativity – through the medium of clothes”. It also underscores why Her Life in Style, rather than in fashion, is such an apt title.

Queen Elizabeth II: Her Life in Style is at The King’s Gallery until October 18.




Read more:
Queen Elizabeth II: Her Life in Style – an unwavering sense of self expressed through fashion


Queen Elizabeth II: Her Life in Style exhibition trailer.

Eighty years on from the second world war, what does freedom mean in Britain today? That question lies at the heart of Our Freedom: Then and Now, a superb photography exhibition currently touring the UK.

Our reviewer, photography professor Mark Rawlinson, appreciated the “alternative perspective” it offers to the idea that the nation is currently divided. He left the gallery struck by the many ways freedom is experienced and understood across the UK. Whether it’s a veteran in Wolverhampton or a student in Hartlepool, he found the cumulative effect of these reflections on freedom and community both fascinating and thought-provoking.

Our Freedom: Then and Now is on tour across the UK until October 30.




Read more:
Our Freedom: Then and Now explores what freedom means to Brits, 80 years after the second world war


The Conversation

ref. Pets, plants and a ‘coming-of-old-age’ story – what to see and watch this week – https://theconversation.com/pets-plants-and-a-coming-of-old-age-story-what-to-see-and-watch-this-week-281370

Needlecraft: this hobby has a long history as a subversive form of protest

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helen Pleasance, Senior Lecturer in Creative Writing and English Literature, York St John University

Fotopogledi/Shutterstock

To pass the time while filming, before her eyesight deteriorated, actor Judi Dench could often be found sewing. The picture of submissive femininity, she sat bent over her needlework. The finished work however, which she gave as gifts, were actually expletive-filled insults worked in ornate embroidery.

There has been a resurgence of people taking up needlecrafts of all kinds in recent years, including knitting, crochet, embroidery and sewing, as a hobby.

Much has been made of the mindful qualities of needlework. As a stitcher myself, I know how much pleasure and relaxation can be gained from the flow of yarn and thread through needles. But beyond the mindful benefits of needlework, there is a long history of needlecraft as a form of expressive protest.


Hobbies can bring joy, wellbeing and focus to our busy lives, but so many of us don’t have one. If you’re ready to replace scrolling with stitching, or hustle with horticulture, The Hobby Starter Kit (a new series from Quarter Life) will help you get going.


In December 2024, textile artist, Sue Spence posted a photograph on Facebook. It showed the words “Middle class WOMAN of a certain age” embroidered in rudimentary stitches onto a small piece of fabric. It was a response to comments made by former MasterChef presenter Gregg Wallace, who claimed allegations of sexual misconduct against him came from “a handful of middle-class women of a certain age”. She later turned the design into brooches reading: “Middle class WOMAN of a certain RAGE.”

Spence subverted Wallace’s original insult so it instead became a celebration of her identity. In doing so, she was participating in a long tradition of subversive stitching. For hundreds of years, silenced women have turned to needlecraft to express taboo emotions and protest their position in the world.

Her materials – needle and thread – are significant to her act of protest. Like the words being reclaimed, the medium she is using is also being reclaimed from its containment within the sphere of patriarchal domesticity as a submissive activity for genteel women.

Art historian Rozsika Parker’s seminal book The Subversive Stitch (2019) traces the history of women and needlework. In it, she identifies how from the 17th century, needlecraft – particularly the embroidering of samplers – “had been employed to inculcate obedience, submission, passivity and piety”. Samplers were used to practise embroidery stitches and frequently involved the stitching of Bible passages and devotional images.

Resisting patriarchy

By the 19th century domestic needlework was widely practised by middle- and upper-class women. It was understood as an activity that tied mothers and daughters to the service of home, husbands and fathers. This is illustrated in the character of Rose Pargiter in Virginia Woolf’s novel The Years (1937).

Painting of a woman sewing at the kitchen table
Sewing Fisherman’s Wife by Anna Ancher (1890).
Randers Museum of Art

At the opening of the novel, in the 1880s, Rose is a little girl. Rose’s sewing – she is embroidering roses onto a boot bag for her father – solidifies her position as “a good girl”, performing submissive obedience to a patriarchal order. Rose is literally stitching the flowers with which she shares a name at the feet (or at least the footwear) of her father. When she refuses to finish her sewing, she also refuses to accept her position in the order of society.

In The Subversive Stitch, Parker identifies more subtle ways in which women could subvert this dominant meaning of needlework. The bent head and quiet activity gave the appearance of passivity, allowing their resistance to hide in plain sight.

The Changi Quilts provide a good example of this from the 20th century. Changi, a prison in Singapore, was used by the Japanese army during the second world war to detain people from Allied countries on the island.

Men and women prisoners were separated. Denied access to writing materials, they could not communicate with each other. The women prisoners were, however, allowed to sew.

They set about making a series of patchwork quilts to be sent to the military hospital. Each woman made a square, including an embroidered picture and her signature. Once they were sent to the hospital, the male patients could read the quilts to get both a list of the women who had survived and some insight, through their artwork, of their feelings about internment. Preserved by the Red Cross Society, the quilts are a testament to the women’s resistance.

Olga Henderson talks about life as a child in a prisoner of war camp and the Changi Quilt.

A more overt challenge to the submissive meanings attached to women’s needlework can be seen in the Suffragette banners of the early 20th century. They were created by women who, like Rose Pargiter, would have been brought up with the obligation to be good girls through domestic stitching. Through the banners, they used their craft as a tool in their fight for the vote.

Much contemporary textile work draws on this subversion of the historical consignment of needlework to patriarchal domesticity. The Craftivist Collective, a global movement founded by Sarah P. Corbett in 2008, combines craft and activism to intervene for social change. Corbett defines it as “gentle activism”, but upends the meaning of gentle, not to mean “passive or weak, but gentle as in compassionate and nuanced”.

So, the next time you see someone, quiet, still and with bent head, wielding needle and thread, consider how they might be using incisive and creative tools to make a sophisticated point.

And if you’re a stitcher, you can try it yourself. Try reimagining traditional patterns or adding bold text or symbols to transform your mindful hobby into a quiet but powerful form of creative expression.

This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

The Conversation

Helen Pleasance does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Needlecraft: this hobby has a long history as a subversive form of protest – https://theconversation.com/needlecraft-this-hobby-has-a-long-history-as-a-subversive-form-of-protest-247969

The many literary lives of Mary Wollstonecraft – author of novels, travel writing and children’s books

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Aditi Upmanyu, PhD candidate in English Literature, University of Oxford

In his biography of Mary Wollstonecraft, written after her death, her husband William Godwin remarked of her travel writing: “If ever there was a book calculated to make a man fall in love with its author, this appears to me to be the book.”

Today, however, Wollstonecraft is best known for a different work: A Vindication of the Rights of Woman (1792). While this landmark text helped lay the foundations of western feminist thought, focusing solely on it risks narrowing our view of a writer who was far more radical and prolific than this single book suggests.

Wollstonecraft wrote across genres – from fiction, travel and children’s books to literary criticism, translations and political essays. Tracing this wide-ranging authorship reveals that her lifelong concerns – women’s education, gender inequality and resistance to political authority did not start or end with A Vindication of the Rights of Woman.

The novelist

Wollstonecraft believed in the political power of storytelling. Writing in The Cambridge Companion to Mary Wollstonecraft, literature professor Claudia L. Johnson observes that “novels are the very bookends of Wollstonecraft’s life as a writer”.

In the preface to Mary: A Fiction (1788), Wollstonecraft declares her intention to reveal the “mind of a woman who has thinking powers”. The novel traces the fictional Mary’s emotional and intellectual life through intense relationships with both a man and a woman. The novel emphasises female intimacy and friendship – at times bordering on the homoerotic – and rejects the plot of conventional domestic fulfilment.

An introduction to Mary Wollstonecraft by National Museums of Liverpool.

This reimagination of domesticity becomes even more polemical in the unfinished novel Maria: or, The Wrongs of Woman (1798), where Wollstonecraft explores marital oppression, parental neglect, sexual violence and moral rigidity.

Maria is forcibly separated from her infant daughter and imprisoned in a “madhouse”, where she suffers further abuse and torture. The novel includes a graphic narration of sexual exploitation through Jemima, a working-class asylum attendant of illegitimate origins who has endured rape, prostitution and abortion. Maria and Jemima’s friendship introduces radical class solidarity forged through shared suffering.

The novel presents a bleak vision in which women’s most meaningful relationships lie beyond heteronormative family structures.

The travel writer

Wollstonecraft’s Letters Written During a Short Residence in Sweden, Norway and Denmark (1798) was the most popular of her works in her own lifetime.

It was written during an intensely turbulent period, marked by her abandonment by her first lover, Gilbert Imlay, after which she made two suicide attempts. The event left her a single, unwed mother to her daughter Fanny.

Letters departs from Wollstonecraft’s usual rational tone. Instead, this book explores emotional intensity and imagination. She writes at the outset: “I determined to let my remarks and reflections flow unrestrained.” It signposted a literary style that privileges feeling and self-exploration.

An excerpt from Mary Wollstonecraft’s Letters Written During a Short Residence in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark.

But beyond personal reflection, Letters also traces her inner growth alongside her observations of society as she travels across Scandinavian terrain. She reflects on landscape, commerce and social organisation, and through them considers broader questions of civilisation and progress. Here emerges a distinctive, female romantic imagination, grounded in sensibility and subjective experience.

Wollstonecraft’s merging of the personal and the political, so central to her writing, finds its fullest expression in this work. The Letters significantly influenced Romantic poets such as Robert Southey and Samuel Taylor Coleridge.

The children’s author

A deep intellectual investment in women’s education runs throughout Wollstonecraft’s career, evident even in the self-explanatory title of her early work, Thoughts on the Education of Daughters (1787).

This commitment takes a fictional form in Original Stories from Real Life (1791), a children’s book featuring illustrations by the poet William Blake. It traces the moral and intellectual development of two young girls under the guidance of a maternal governess. Wollstonecraft drew on her own year-long experience as a governess to the aristocratic Kingsborough family in Ireland between 1786 and 1787.

Engraving of a governess, with two girls looking up at her adoringly
The frontispiece to the 1791 edition of Original Stories from Real Life engraved by William Blake.
William Blake Archive

Influenced by enlightenment, the book presents learning as both structured instruction and experience shaped by nature and society. For Wollstonecraft, education cultivates judgement, self-discipline and moral awareness.

Her interest in childhood care and its formative role in later years is further reflected in three unfinished works: Lessons, Hints and Fragments of Letters on the Management of Infants. The works were all published posthumously in a compilation by Godwin in 1798. These works explore the issues of women’s health and nutrition, and rethink maternity as an acquired practice, rather than innate feelings women automatically possess.

An autodidact herself, Wollstonecraft saw the improvement of women’s education as essential to their development as rational citizens. Thus, pedagogy becomes the cornerstone of broader social reform, linking the cultivation of the mind to the possibility of equality between the sexes.

The reviewer, correspondent and translator

Wollstonecraft wrote extensively for Joseph Johnson’s progressive journal, the Analytical Review, contributing reviews of contemporary poetry and novels.

A silver statue of a woman emerging from what a wave
A Sculpture for Mary Wollstonecraft by Maggi Hambling (2020), located in Newington Green, London.
WikiCommons, CC BY-SA

These reviews reveal Wollstonecraft as an active participant in contemporary literary culture. This sustained engagement with the ideas of her time helped shape her own trajectory as a writer.

Her reviews were public yet often anonymous, but her letters offer a more intimate record of her voice. Wollstonecraft’s prolific correspondence suggests a life lived, in part, through letters. She wrote frequently to her sisters, her husband Godwin and fellow women writers such as Amelia Opie and Mary Hays. These letters reveal the complexity and contradictions of her character, and her reflections on motherhood, morality and intellectual life.

Wollstonecraft also participated in a wider transnational literary culture, translating works primarily from French, German and Dutch. Her own writings continued to circulate in translation across Europe after her death, distinctly contributing to the development of feminist thought well beyond England.

This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

The Conversation

Aditi Upmanyu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The many literary lives of Mary Wollstonecraft – author of novels, travel writing and children’s books – https://theconversation.com/the-many-literary-lives-of-mary-wollstonecraft-author-of-novels-travel-writing-and-childrens-books-279885

Why delaying climate action now means higher seas by 2100 – new research

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helen Millman, Postdoctoral Researcher, Polar Science, University of Exeter

Imagine your favourite sunny beach. Anywhere will do. You look out and see the ocean stretching to the horizon. To a glaciologist, that view is not just water; it’s melted ice.

Our new study shows that the best case sea-level rise scenarios may now be out of reach.

Around 20,000 years ago, during the most recent ice age, the Earth was about 5°C cooler than today. Vast ice sheets, comparable in scale to Greenland and Antarctica, covered Canada, northern Europe, and other regions. Those ice sheets formed as water evaporated from the oceans, fell as snow, and accumulated year after year on land.

Locked away as ice, that water was removed from the ocean, lowering sea level by around 130m and reshaping the planet’s coastlines. You could have walked from Britain to mainland Europe or from Siberia to North America as much of today’s continental shelf was dry land.

Between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago, global temperatures increased and those ice sheets melted. Sea level rose, flooding coastal plains and river valleys, and leading to modern coastlines. The lesson from Earth’s recent history is simple: When global temperature changes, sea level changes, and coastlines change with it.

The triple threat

Sea level rise has three main causes. First, as the ocean warms, seawater expands, increasing its volume. Second, hundreds of thousands of mountain glaciers worldwide are melting, adding water to the sea. Third, the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing mass. All three matter, but they do not contribute equally, and their importance is changing.

Since around 1850, the burning of fossil fuels has raised greenhouse gas concentrations to levels not seen for more than three million years. As a result, global temperatures have increased by nearly 1.5°C and global mean sea level has risen by more than 20cm. Just under half of this rise came from thermal expansion of warming oceans. A similar amount comes from the melting of about 300,000 glaciers worldwide, but with a rising contribution from the great ice sheets.

What is striking is how fast this change has happened. Around half of the total sea level rise since 1850 has occurred in just the past 30 years. During this time, Greenland and Antarctica have begun to contribute more to sea-level rise than all other glaciers combined, and together now exceed the contribution from ocean warming. Mass loss from Antarctica alone is around six times greater than it was three decades ago.

aerial shot of mountainous ice sheet
Greenland’s ice cap is melting.
Vadim_N/Shutterstock

This shift matters because glaciers and ice sheets are not equal. If every small glacier on Earth were to melt completely, global sea level would rise by only about 24cm. If the polar ice sheets were to melt, sea level would rise by more than 65m, almost 300 times more.

Ice sheets usually respond slowly to warming air and ocean temperatures. But some regions are far more vulnerable than others. In these hotspots, retreat can trigger dynamic processes that accelerate ice loss, destabilising neighbouring regions and speeding up sea level rise.

Researchers like us are starting to see just this, particularly in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica and the margins of the Greenland ice sheet. Mass loss from these ice sheets commits the planet to metres of sea level rise – and once retreat begins it may be impossible to stop.

The reality gap

The pace of change still depends on us, but the starting point keeps shifting. Observations show that current sea level rise is already tracking along the mid-to-high projections provided by the UN’s climate science advisory group, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), placing the lowest, most manageable outcomes out of reach. Sea levels rising by more than 0.5m by 2100 are now increasingly likely, with consequences that include large-scale displacement and the abandonment of many coastal regions at immense and avoidable cost.

This does not mean the outcome is fixed. The world stops warming almost immediately after reaching net zero. Rapid decarbonisation would slow ice loss, buying time for coastal cities, communities, ports, wetlands and beaches to adapt.

Yet a clear gap remains between where the scientific consensus says emissions need to go to avoid rapid rise, and where current government commitments, known as nationally determined contributions are taking us. Many estimates say that we are currently on a path toward roughly 3°C of warming. For context, the threshold for the irreversible loss of the Greenland ice sheet is estimated to be as low as 1.7°C to 2.3°C. We are flirting with a temperature that would commit the planet to several metres of long-term rise from Greenland.

Now return to that beach. The shoreline is not fixed. It is a product of past warming and it is already being reshaped by the warming we have caused. The question is no longer whether sea level rise can be kept low, but how high it will go, how quickly it will rise, and how much damage we are prepared to accept.
The longer action is delayed, the fewer good options remain, and the more of that familiar coastline is lost to the tide.

The Conversation

Helen Millman is on the advisory council of the Conservative Environment Network.

Martin Siegert receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council.

Richard Alley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why delaying climate action now means higher seas by 2100 – new research – https://theconversation.com/why-delaying-climate-action-now-means-higher-seas-by-2100-new-research-272290

Could warming seas bring great white sharks back to the North Sea? A 5-million-year-old shark tooth may provide clues

Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Stewart, Professor of Evolutionary Palaeoecology, Bournemouth University

As the Earth shifts to climates not seen for several hundred thousand years, we may need to look at ancient environments for clues about what could happen next.

Our new study of two whale fossils, with preserved fragments of shark teeth, suggests the modern descendants of these animals could once again roam the southern region of the North Sea, between the UK, Belgium and Denmark. Climate change may recreate the conditions that allowed the ancestors of great white sharks to hunt in these waters.

If you want information about how animals and other organisms might respond to the kind of climate changes our planet is experiencing right now, you need evidence of former responses to such changes.

Palaeoecology, the study of the interactions between organisms in the deep past, has been coopted in the service of conservation science for some years now.

One example of a past seascape which may tell us important information is that of the southern part of the North Sea, which was occupied a few million years ago by large marine animals. In modern times, the area has had a relatively low diversity in its wildlife.

But about 4-5 million years ago the North Sea was home to several large shark species, including the now locally extinct bluntnose sixgill shark and a relative of the modern great white shark. The Greenland shark used to live in this region, as well as tiny right whales, a relative of the beluga whale, and rorqual baleen whales. It was also home to extinct dolphins, such as Pliodelphis doelensis which was about the size of a common dolphin, plus porpoises and several seal species. Many of these animals, like all the cetaceans and seals, and some of the sharks, are now extinct. Others, including many other sharks, have since moved to distant oceans.

It appears that there was large-scale turnover of cetacean species in the southern North Sea during the ice age of the Pliocene-Pleistocene epoch, with the extinctions of most small baleen whales and the departure of other cetacean families (such as that of the beluga whale). This turnover may well have been responsible for the disappearance of the large sharks including the great white relatives and the bluntnose sixgill sharks, that were feeding on the smaller whales, from the North Sea.

Occasionally, the fossil record provides a glimpse of the past relationships between species. This can help scientists better understand these food webs and how ancient ecosystems worked.

Shark bite marks on fossil marine mammal bones are relatively common, revealing intervals of time when two animals interacted. However, it is often difficult to identify the predator species. Much more rarely, bite marks come with fossilised tooth fragments. This is what we found in two cetacean skulls from the Early Pliocene (approximately 5-4 million years ago) of the North Sea.

Fossil teeth marks
Detail of some shark bite marks on the skull of the extinct right whale. The lower photo shows a bite made by the bluntnose sixgill shark, with a tooth tip deeply embedded in the bone.
Olivier Lambert (RBINS)., CC BY-NC-ND

The first of these two skulls belonged to a diminutive extinct right whale which was found by father and son fossil enthusiasts (Robert and John Stewart – coauthor of this piece) in the mid-1980s in the docks in Antwerp, Belgium. Some 40 or so years later the skull was donated to the Institute of Natural Sciences in Brussels where it was identified by one of us (Olivier Lambert) as one of only two fossil specimens of Balaenella brachyrhynus, a tiny right whale species only known from the North Sea.

Further examination revealed bite marks on the top of the skull and in one such mark there was a tooth fragment of a shark. In our study, with the help of the shark specialist Frederik Mollen, the tooth tip was identified using microCT scanning as belonging to part of a lower tooth of a bluntnose sixgill shark Hexanchus griseus, which today is common in the Mediterranean Sea. The position of the bites makes it likely that the whale was scavenged as it lay drifting belly-up.

The second skull, from a close relative of the extinct beluga whale Casatia thermophila was discovered in the early 1980s. It was found during the excavation of a new dock in the Port of Antwerp by another father and son team – Paul Gigase, a pathologist by profession, and his son Pierre.

In this case the whale, which also had bite marks with the tip of a shark tooth embedded, may have been attacked by an extinct mako shark, a relative of today’s great white shark. It appears that the shark was attempting to separate the whale’s head from the rest of the body and focusing on the fat-rich melon, a mass of tissue involved in echolocation on the top of the animal’s head.

Image of fossil skull
Shark bite marks targeting the fat-rich melon. The skull on the lower part of the illustration is of a modern beluga whale.
Olivier Lambert (RBINS)., CC BY-NC-ND

These fossils represent direct evidence that relatives of sharks today fed on these whales. Even if the fossil evidence is limited to two pairs of animals, they are tangible examples of such behaviour.

The ongoing biodiversity crisis is directly related to climate change, and has (or will have) an impact on the distribution of marine mammals. Global warming is likely to affect shallow seas in particular. The southern part of the North Sea is not large or deep enough for modern baleen whales, which are larger than their ancestors and live in the North Atlantic, like the modern right whale, the humpback and fin whales. But warming seas could attract dolphins and seals, and in turn great white sharks or other large marine predators.

In the North Sea, scientists have already observed short-term changes in the distribution of porpoises and seals. New seal colonies have established along the coast of the southern North Sea and there have been abrupt fluctuations in the number of porpoises stranded yearly on Belgian beaches.

The fossilised behaviour of the disappeared whales and sharks emphasise that all is change in the ecology of the North Sea.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Could warming seas bring great white sharks back to the North Sea? A 5-million-year-old shark tooth may provide clues – https://theconversation.com/could-warming-seas-bring-great-white-sharks-back-to-the-north-sea-a-5-million-year-old-shark-tooth-may-provide-clues-279157

Great Expectations by Charles Dickens is an early exploration of ‘romance fraud’

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emma Linford, Honorary research associate, English literature, University of Hull

Shrinking into her yellowing wedding gown with the decay of her wedding breakfast around her, Miss Havisham, from Charles Dickens’s 1861 novel, Great Expectations, is one of the best-known characters in English literature.

Jilted on her wedding day by her unscrupulous fiancé, Havisham can be understood by modern readers as a victim of “romance fraud”, where in a fraudster manipulates someone under the guise of courtship for their own financial gain. Although romance fraud is a 21st-century term, through the character of Havisham, Dickens clearly demonstrated its often-devastating effects.

In her youth, Havisham was manipulated by her fiancé, the conman Compeyson and her half-brother Arthur, in a plan to rob her of her fortune. Both the romance itself and wedding are a ploy and she is jilted at the altar, losing not only her wealth (which she had signed away prior to her nuptials) but also any hope of future romantic prospects due to the scandal that followed.

Alone, rich and looking for a companion, Havisham was particularly vulnerable to a criminal wanting to take advantage. Though she lost her fortune, Dickens makes it clear that the romantic betrayal is what had the biggest impact on her psychology.

The romantic duplicity shapes her relationships with both her adopted daughter, Estella, and Pip, the novel’s protagonist, making her cold and hostile toward them.


This article is part of Rethinking the Classics. The stories in this series offer insightful new ways to think about and interpret classic books, films and artworks. This is the canon – with a twist.


The psychological impact of romance fraud

Since being jilted, Havisham has become a recluse, “stuck” within the moment of her abandonment. She remains in the house with the clocks all stopped, perpetually wearing her wedding gown. Her decayed hopes of romance are reflected in the decayed objects which surround her. As Pip muses:

Avoiding her eyes … I took note of the surrounding objects in detail, and saw that her watch had stopped at twenty minutes to nine, and that a clock in the room had stopped at twenty minutes to nine. “Look at me,” said Miss Havisham. “You are not afraid of a woman who has never seen the sun since you were born?”

The clocks are all stopped at the time the promise of her future life ended – the moment that she received the letter from Compeyson which made the crime apparent.

Olivia Colman as Miss Havisham in Great Expectations.

Herbert (a relative of Miss Havisham and friend of Pip) recounts the story to Pip:

A certain man, who made love to Miss Havisham … Well! This man pursued Miss Havisham closely and professed to be devoted to her. I believe she had not shown much susceptibility up to that time; but all the susceptibility she possessed certainly came out then, and she passionately loved him.

This description mirrors many modern elements of romance fraud. Compeyson “made love” to her and she became “susceptible”. Like contemporary romance fraudsters, Compeyson inserted himself into Havisham’s life and manipulated and controlled her to believe that he loved her.

Romance fraud in Dickensian Britain

There was a lack of progression in fraudulent law during Dickens’ time. It wasn’t until the Fraud Act of 2006, that real change came about, making fraud by misrepresentation a criminal offence in the UK. Today, romance fraud is considered a “serious crime”.

Long before this most personal form of fraud became illegal, Dickens saw its prevalence and drew attention to it. Others followed in his path, such as Mary Elizabeth Braddon in Lady Audrey’s Secret (1862), Arthur Conan Doyle in A Case of Identity (1891) and Agatha Christie in Death on the Nile (1937).

Havisham can be viewed in two ways, either as a victim or a fool. It is hard to determine how Dickens wanted her to be interpreted. Was she the stereotypical hysterical Victorian woman, as seen in other novels such as The Woman in White by Wilkie Collins (1860) or the character of Bertha Rochester in Jane Eyre (1847)?

I don’t think so. As he was with so many other social issues, I believe that Dickens was ahead of his time and was actively trying to raise the profile of the crime of romance fraud and the impact it has on his victims.

Beyond the canon

As part of the Rethinking the Classics series, we’re asking our experts to recommend a book or artwork that tackles similar themes to the canonical work in question, but isn’t (yet) considered a classic itself. Here is Emma Linford’s suggestion:

If you’re gripped by Dickens’s depiction of fraudsters and criminals, you may also enjoy Dickens’s Villains: Melodrama, Character, Popular Culture by Juliet John (2003). In it, John explores the complex villains and anti-heroes of Dickens’ novels. She looks at what inspired his writing, as well as the dramaturgical characteristics of his work.


This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something, The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

The Conversation

Emma Linford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Great Expectations by Charles Dickens is an early exploration of ‘romance fraud’ – https://theconversation.com/great-expectations-by-charles-dickens-is-an-early-exploration-of-romance-fraud-241820

Why Italy’s Giorgia Meloni broke with Donald Trump

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Margherita de Candia, Lecturer in Comparative Politics, King’s College London

The Italian prime minister and leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, Giorgia Meloni, has made fostering ties with foreign leaders a central part of her political strategy. A few years before winning Italy’s 2022 general elections, she started cultivating ties with the US and European conservative world as part of a broader political rebranding effort aimed at projecting a more moderate image at home and gaining legitimacy abroad.

She subsequently became a familiar face within Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (Maga) movement. Meloni shares similar views to Maga on migration, sovereignty and national identity. She also aligns with the movement on a constellation of other themes ranging from fighting against “wokeism” and defending the traditional family to the rejection of liberalism, globalism and environmentalism.

After Trump was elected as US president for the second time in late 2024, Meloni’s ties with the American far-right suddenly became a matter of foreign policy. But her relationship with Trump has turned out to be a more demanding balancing act than Meloni may have anticipated. And now their alliance – at least for the time being – appears to be over.

On April 13 Meloni described Trump’s recent social media attack on Pope Leo, who had criticised the US and Israel’s war on Iran, as “unacceptable”. This prompted a rebuke from Trump, who said Meloni “lacked courage” for not joining the war. The conditions for this breakdown have been in place for some time.

Trump and Meloni’s alliance

Trump and Meloni’s shared far-right traits should not hide some key differences between the two leaders. In foreign policy, Meloni has adopted a pro-Nato position and is a staunch supporter of Ukraine. These positions have aided Meloni in what has been called her quest for “respectability”, but they clash with Trump’s lack of support for Ukraine and belligerent position towards Nato.

Politically, Meloni has also faced constraints that have moderated her leadership. Externally, the EU’s institutional and financial straitjacket has required Meloni to work collaboratively with the bloc. This requirement has limited Meloni’s room for manoeuvre in her dealings with Trump and clashes with the US president’s rejection of multilateralism.

Internally, the logic of coalition politics – in particular the moderating presence of the pro-European Forza Italia party in her government – and the fact that centrist voters represent a decisive constituency in Italy have both acted as a further centripetal force on Meloni’s agenda.

Despite these divergences, Meloni’s ideological closeness to Trump did initially translate into diplomatic gains that helped boost her profile with fellow EU leaders. She was the first EU leader to meet with Trump after the imposition of his global trade tariff regime in 2025.

Meloni also managed to organise a trilateral meeting in Rome with the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the US vice-president, J.D. Vance. Following the meting, Vance called Meloni a “bridge” between the two sides of the Atlantic.

Still, beyond the legitimacy gains for Meloni and her party, the material advantages Italy has extracted from her relationship with Trump have been limited. Italy was not spared trade tariffs, for instance. Nor did it manage to obtain a discount on Trump’s demand for Nato members to raise military spending to 5% of their GDP.

The scarcity of tangible policy gains from her ties with Trump may be one reason for Meloni’s decision to distance herself from the US president. But Italian domestic politics are another important factor.

The indirect effects of Trump’s policies are likely to have played a key role in the recent defeat Meloni suffered in a referendum on judicial reform. This referendum, which came one month into Trump’s war in Iran, morphed into a vote on the Meloni government.

The Iran war has caused energy prices across Europe to rise and has generated fears among Italians of possible security repercussions. With a recent survey indicating 79% of Italians now hold a negative opinion on Trump, it seems that voters used the referendum to signal their discontent to Meloni ahead of general elections in 2027.

Opposition parties, both on the left and right, hailed the result as a sign that voters are looking for change. And Roberto Vannacci, a former general turned politician, is capitalising on voters’ increased unease with the impact of Trump’s policies. He has criticised Meloni for what he sees as her Washington-first alignment and soft approach to key far-right issues.

Trump’s attack on the Pope – indefensible for Meloni as someone who has defined herself as a Christian and whose party draws on a vast Catholic electorate – gave the Italian prime minister the exit she needed to signal her distance from Trump’s recent actions to voters.

Meloni’s agenda remains far-right in its orientation, aligning with Trump’s in many ways from identity politics and migration to his stance on the green transition. How these ideological similarities are received by Italian voters over the coming year is likely to play a crucial role in determining Meloni’s political future.

The Conversation

Margherita de Candia does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why Italy’s Giorgia Meloni broke with Donald Trump – https://theconversation.com/why-italys-giorgia-meloni-broke-with-donald-trump-280956

Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s ‘nuclear deterrent’

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

This is the text from The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email. Sign up here to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.


Napoleon Bonaparte is said to have commented in connection with his invasion of Russia that “geography is destiny”. Take a look at a live maritime tracker to see how Napoleon’s aphorism is playing out in the Middle East today. There are presently hundreds of vessels either side of the Strait of Hormuz, idling in either the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman. But nothing is passing though.

In normal times, 20% of the world’s oil flows through this waterway. But since the US and Israel began to launch attacks at the end of February, Iran has effectively closed down the Strait, both by depositing mines and by threatening to board any ships trying to pass without their permission.

The US has countered with its own blockade. And both sides have demonstrated how serious they are in recent days by threatening, boarding or forcing vessels to reroute.

That Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz should have come as no surprise to anyone. The leaders of the Islamic Republic have threatened to do so every time they have felt under threat over more than four decades. Christian Emery, an expert in US-Iran relations and Persian Gulf security at University College London, believes this is why no previous US president has chosen to launch a full-scale attack on Iran.

As we’ve already seen, the ability of Iran to hugely disrupt the global economy by shutting down the Strait was obvious: “The only person who seems not to have understood this is Donald Trump,” Emery concludes.




Read more:
Has the Strait of Hormuz emerged as Iran’s most powerful form of deterrence?


So now there appears to be a deadlock. It’s an unwinnable war, write Bamo Nouri and Inderjeet Parmar, experts in international security at City St George’s, University of London. The US and Israel may enjoy massive military superiority over Iran, but this is beside the point, Nouri and Parmar believe.

While both the US president, Donald Trump, and Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, need to be able to demonstrate to their voters that they have emerged triumphant, Iran isn’t looking to win. It is looking to endure – while making sure that the cost of this conflict becomes unsustainable. And not just for the US and Israel, but for pretty much everybody else besides.

We’re already seeing that. Oil prices have surged and reserves are coming under strain. Supply chains are disrupted. And political friction is stressing relationships, not just between the US and its Nato allies, but – more ominously – with China, which typically buys between 80% and 90% of Iran’s oil exports and said this week that the Strait must be opened without delay.

Iran, our experts conclude, “does not need to win. It only needs to prevent its adversaries from achieving their aims. So far, it has done exactly that.”




Read more:
Middle East conflict looks increasingly like a war nobody can win


There’s a principle in classical game theory which explains why Iran’s position is so strong. It’s known as Rubinstein bargaining, writes Renaud Foucart, an economist at Lancaster University. As Foucart explains it, this holds that in a conflict the respective strength of adversaries each depends on two things: “how badly off it would be without a resolution, and how impatient it is to get things resolved”.

As we’ve heard, all the pressure is on the US, while the leverage is mainly in Iran’s hands. “The US’s position is much weaker than first thought because of a stretch of water the world can’t do without,” he concludes.




Read more:
The Strait of Hormuz shows how everything is now about leverage


On Tuesday, as we waited to see what might happen if the 14-day deadline imposed by Trump on April 8 expired without Tehran opening the Strait, it was clear that both the US and Iran, to varying degrees, were looking for an off-ramp. The blockade is financially ruinous for Iran – whether it is losing US$500 million (£370 million) a day, as Trump claims, we don’t know. But the shutting down of its oil exports is hitting an already parlous economy and this week the social security minister said 2 million people had lost their jobs since the beginning of the war.

For Trump, it’s soaring prices at the gas pumps and the prospect of rising inflation angering voters ahead of November’s midterm elections. The war is very unpopular with Americans – and, significantly, it’s beginning to fracture the Maga coalition which brought Trump to power in the 2024 election.

But there are ways both sides can find off-ramps, writes David Galbreath of the University of Bath. The key thing is to find a settlement that the leaders of both sides can sell as a “win”.

For Iran, this could be an easing of sanctions and access to some of the many billions of dollars of frozen assets held overseas. It could be a recognition of its right to enrich uranium to the level needed for medical uses – particularly given the recent assertion by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, that such a solution would “safeguard its [Iran’s] national sovereignty”.

We know a little about what Iran is prepared to offer because a great deal of it was on the table in February when the US and Israel launched their strikes. But one of the stumbling blocks for the US president appears to be that Iran’s proposals may too closely resemble the deal struck in 2015 by his predecessor, Barack Obama.

But Galbreath concludes that as things stand, some combination of opening the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of limits on uranium enrichment and agreeing to stringent inspections could be made to appear a “win” for Trump. This could be a starting point, writes Galbreath, in what is known in conflict resolution as “sequenced de‑escalation”. It could deliver an initial settlement and allow negotiators on both sides to get to work and hammer out the details. Obama’s treaty took 20 months to agree. It’s early days yet.




Read more:
Middle East conflict: how the US and Iran could step back from the brink


One stumbling block is likely to be that there appears to be something of a power struggle raging at the top of Iranian politics. This was seen very clearly last weekend, when Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced that the Strait of Hormuz was completely open, only to be swiftly overruled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which said it would decide when and how the Strait would be opened.

Since then, a new figure has emerged at the head of the IRGC: a longtime guards member and hardline former commander of its elite Quds force, Ahmad Vahidi. And it seems that with Iran’s freshly minted supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, badly injured after the attack that killed his father on February 28, Vahidi is now calling the shots in Iran. Andreas Krieg, an expert in Middle East politics at King’s College London explains the power struggle that has led to Vahidi assuming control.




Read more:
Who is calling the shots in Iran?



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The Conversation

ref. Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s ‘nuclear deterrent’ – https://theconversation.com/strait-of-hormuz-irans-nuclear-deterrent-281376

Mandelson vetting: Starmer’s reluctance to engage with the details shows a lack of political leadership

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Stern, Visiting Professor of Management Practice, Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London

For all of Keir Starmer’s undoubted abilities, steady nerve and top-level experience in the legal profession, his tenure as prime minister has been fraught with difficulty. This is no doubt partly due to his limited enthusiasm for the (at times banal) realities of political leadership.

It is also due to his reluctance to engage sufficiently with the details of important decisions. At key moments, he has chosen to look the other way and defer to others to execute.

The most recent and consequential example of this is the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington DC, which we now know was driven primarily by former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney. A quick refresh on recent Labour party history should have been enough to deter this decision. Instead, Starmer outsourced political judgment to others. Now that it has backfired, he is attempting to deflect the blame for his own misjudgments, perhaps not realising – or not accepting – that the buck ultimately stops with him.

He has lost goodwill by removing a range of colleagues, including two cabinet secretaries, two chiefs of staff, and now a top civil servant. He has not focused enough on the detail of policy, but has rather made broad and vague calls for change and asked others to deliver it. Good leaders delegate with clear instructions to people who are capable of fulfilling specific tasks.

A strong sense of leadership from the centre is needed to make the UK government system work. This was understood by the last Labour government with the introduction of the Delivery Unit, a mechanism to provide performance management across key departments.

The Starmer government got off to a false start in the summer of 2024 and has never really recovered. There was misalignment, to put it mildly, between Starmer’s original (and short-lived) chief of staff, Sue Gray, and other colleagues. A clumsily introduced cut to winter fuel allowance had to be reversed, raising no extra revenue but costing a good deal of political goodwill.

There have been other missteps. Starmer sparked anger among some MPs with his speech warning about the UK becoming “an island of strangers”, only to concede subsequently that he was uneasy with that phrase. He was opposed to his own speech.

Welfare reform was necessary until backbenchers rebelled. A harsher line on immigration did nothing to halt Reform’s rise. A seeming reluctance to criticise Israel’s assault on Gaza cost the Labour party support and helped drive the Green party’s new popularity.

And while Starmer did not know and had no particular fondness for Mandelson, he was persuaded McSweeney that he would be the right person to send to Washington DC as a new ambassador. Hence the rushed process to appoint him, and the subsequent political mess that afflicts Starmer now.

All of these suggest a disengagement with the nitty gritty of politics, the consequences of which are now being made clear.

Understanding the job

Amanda Goodall, a professor of leadership at Bayes Business School, has long argued that “domain knowledge” (or professional expertise) is a vital requirement for those in a leadership position. It pays to have someone in charge who understands and has a profound feel for the world in which they are operating.

Credibility among colleagues is established by being good at the core elements of a job and having proven experience. This was always going to be difficult to achieve for a latecomer to politics like Starmer.

In Westminster, Starmer has always been a fish out of water. He has only been a member of parliament since 2015. He emerged as a viable leadership candidate in the aftermath of Labour’s 2019 election defeat. He succeeded as a figure with calm authority, in contrast to the uncertainty created by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

Even under the steadier figure of Rishi Sunak, and undermined by the rise of Reform, the Conservative government was doomed to defeat. In July 2024, the quirks of the UK’s voting system gifted Labour a massive 170-seat majority on a vote share of 34% – a “loveless landslide”. The government was never really all that popular even at the outset. A more politically savvy prime minister might have recognised this and led the new government differently.

Starmer became prime minister without ever having established a distinct political identity or programme. He proudly said that there was no such thing as Starmerism, and never would be. That sort of modesty may have been authentic and appealingly British, in a way. But it left the new government without a song to sing.

Politics, it has been said, is “show business for ugly people”. Charisma is overrated, and after Boris Johnson I suspect the country has had enough of performative prime ministers. The PM does not have to be a stand-up comedian or a “celebrity”. But there should be a purpose to what he or she is doing. A more politically engaged prime minister would have weighed up the risks in appointing Mandelson more carefully, and been aware of warnings that the appointment was being “weirdly rushed”.

Effective political leaders have a coherent and compelling story to tell. They strengthen and give credibility to this story when they make important political decisions with conviction and a sense of ownership. This is what Starmer has lacked all along, and it will be his undoing.

The Conversation

Stefan Stern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Mandelson vetting: Starmer’s reluctance to engage with the details shows a lack of political leadership – https://theconversation.com/mandelson-vetting-starmers-reluctance-to-engage-with-the-details-shows-a-lack-of-political-leadership-281191