The rise of ‘Merzoni’: How an alliance between Germany’s and Italy’s leaders is reshaping Europe

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager, Associate Professor of Critical Cultural & International Studies, Colorado State University

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at an intergovernmental summit in Rome. Massimo Di Vita/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images

“Merzoni” isn’t a neologism that easily trips off the tongue, and it hasn’t fully taken hold in the world of European politics.

Yet, for months, a pragmatic alliance between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been building.

And despite the politicians being, in many ways, unlikely partners, the union has quietly been redefining Europe’s power balance. In the latest display of this dynamic, a joint-policy paper drawn up by Merz and Meloni is set to be delivered to European Union partners at an informal summit on Feb. 12, 2026, urging reforms to improve the bloc’s competitiveness.

As a scholar of European politics, history and culture, I see the union as being born of necessity but nonetheless serving the interests of both parties – and possibly those of the European Union, too.

Moving on from ‘Merkron’

Post-war European politics has seen the center of its gravity move before, but it has largely revolved around shifts to and from France or Germany, the bloc’s current two largest economies. The U.K.’s ability to dominate EU politics was always stymied by its lateness to the “European project” and ambivalence at home. And it was ended outright by a referendum in 2016 that saw the U.K.’s exit from the union.

For nearly a decade after Britain’s exit, Europe revolved around the axis of Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron, an alliance given the nickname “Merkron”: Merkel’s clumsy charm and cautious pragmatism paired with Macron’s charisma and sweeping European idealism. Their dual-stewardship helped steer the EU through Brexit, Donald Trump’s first presidency and the pandemic.

But times have changed.

Merkel is gone. She stepped down as German chancellor in December 2021. Macron, meanwhile, has struggled politically at home and increasingly resembles what diplomats and journalists describe as a European “Cassandra”: right in his warnings about global instability, yet less able to mobilize support domestically or across the continent to confront the issues.

The end of the “Merkron” era coincided with myriad crises confronting Europe, including Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, current U.S. unpredictability, growing climate pressures, never-stopping migration tensions and the collapse of arms-control regimes.

The comforting post-Cold War assumption that peace in Europe was permanent has vanished.

An unlikely partnership

Into this vacuum stepped Merz and Meloni. At first glance, the pairing looks odd.

Merz is a conservative Atlanticist and unapologetic economic liberal. His message, and the title of his 2008 book, “Dare More Capitalism,” signals a move toward an assertive pro-market agenda after years of cautious centrism under Merkel. Merz insists Germany must rebuild military capacity – a departure from decades of both German domestic and EU-wide reticence toward such a move.

Meloni, meanwhile, rose to power from Italy’s nationalist right. The lineage of her home party, Fratelli d’Italia, or Brothers of Italy, traces back to the rump of Mussolini’s fascists. Yet in office, she has proved politically agile, repositioning herself as a responsible and quite successful European actor. Meloni as prime minister has maintained support for Ukraine and cooperation with the European Union – shrugging off concerns over both areas prior to her coming to power. She has equally skillfully cultivated strong ties with Washington – including Trump’s political camp, and overall has demonstrated successful strategic chameleonism.

Critics call her opportunistic; admirers call her pragmatic. Either way, Meloni has mastered political shape-shifting, becoming a bridge between nationalist and mainstream Europe.

What unites Merz and Meloni is less ideology than necessity.

Germany remains Europe’s economic engine but needs partners to push Europe toward greater defense capacity and economic competitiveness. Italy is seeking greater influence and credibility at Europe’s core.

Both governments now speak the language of strategic autonomy: Europe must be able to defend itself and protect its interests even if the U.S. becomes unreliable. As the joint-paper reportedly being presented to other EU partners puts it: “Continuing on the current path is not an option. Europe must act now.”

Europe unites against a frenemy

Ironically, Europe’s unity has often emerged in response to crisis.

Brexit strengthened pro-EU sentiment on the mainland. Similarly, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine revived NATO and EU cooperation.

Now, Trump – with his flirtation with abandoning NATO commitments, threatening tariffs and questioning of territorial arrangements in places like Greenland – has delivered a shock to European political consciousness.

Recent surveys show overwhelming European support for stronger EU defense cooperation and greater unity against global threats.

For leaders like Merz and Meloni, this creates political space for policies that would have seemed unthinkable, or certainly more difficult, a decade ago, such as military buildups, defense integration, industrial protection and tougher migration policies.

Defense and militarization

The most dramatic change is, arguably, happening in Germany. For decades, Berlin avoided military leadership, haunted by its history and sheltered under U.S. security guarantees. That era is ending. German officials increasingly speak about rearmament, European defense readiness and long-term strategic competition.

The timing could not be more urgent. Merz, framing Moscow’s ongoing aggression as a direct assault on European security and unity, stated in September 2025 that “we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either.”

The new German-Italian action plan explicitly strengthens cooperation on defense, cybersecurity and strategic industries. Both governments stress NATO loyalty while simultaneously pushing for stronger European military capacity.

The idea of a future European defense force, once dismissed as fantasy, now circulates seriously in policy circles. Rome is reportedly planning a major procurement deal with German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall worth up to US$24 billion (20 billion euros). Including hundreds of armored vehicles and new-generation tanks, it would represent one of Europe’s largest joint defense projects.

The move reflects a shared push by Berlin and Rome to strengthen Europe’s military capacity while anchoring rearmament in European industrial partnerships.

What’s in it for Meloni and Merz?

For Meloni, partnership with Berlin delivers legitimacy. Italy has traditionally oscillated between European leadership and peripheral frustration. By aligning with Germany, Rome reenters Europe’s decision-making core.

At the same time, Meloni can present herself as both nationalist at home and indispensable to Europe. Her political positions allow her to maintain channels with Washington while remaining inside EU consensus – a balancing act few European leaders can manage.

Germany, meanwhile, gains political flexibility and a partner more aligned with big-picture EU politics.

Macron’s ambitious federalist vision has at times alienated more cautious partners in the bloc. Italy offers a pragmatic counterweight for Merz, focused on competitiveness, migration control and industrial policy rather than a grand European redesign.

Macron isn’t being entirely squeezed out. France still leads on nuclear deterrence and many diplomatic initiatives. Yet political momentum is shifting and now lies with governments willing to prioritize economic competitiveness and security over institutional reform.

Will it work?

The Merzoni partnership faces major tests.

Italy’s economy remains fragile, and Germany’s export model struggles amid global economic shifts. Far-right and populist movements still challenge EU cohesion. And defense integration remains politically sensitive across member nations.

Yet necessity often drives European integration. And as crises accumulate, cooperation becomes less optional.

The real question is whether Europe can move from reactive crisis management to having a proactive geopolitical strategy. For now, the unlikely German-Italian partnership suggests Europe’s political map is being redrawn – not through grand federal visions but through pragmatic alliances shaped by fear, necessity and opportunity.

The Conversation

Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The rise of ‘Merzoni’: How an alliance between Germany’s and Italy’s leaders is reshaping Europe – https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-merzoni-how-an-alliance-between-germanys-and-italys-leaders-is-reshaping-europe-275387

They escaped appalling conditions in scam factories. Now, they are living on the streets in Cambodia

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ivan Franceschini, Lecturer, Chinese Studies, The University of Melbourne

Indonesians freed from scam centres wait outside the Indonesian embassy in Phnom Penh for help returning home. Magdalena Chodownik/Anadolu via Getty Images

“I was running from the war, and I got to a war again.” This is how Eric, a young man from central Africa, described how he ended up at a scam compound in Cambodia – and then stranded in the country with no way out.

Eric’s story is like that of many people deceived into the scamming world. After fleeing conflict in his home country and living in extreme deprivation, Eric received an email offering a US$2,000 (A$2,800) monthly job in Cambodia. The recruiter quickly persuaded him to accept. (We are using a pseudonym and not disclosing his country of origin to protect him.)

Upon arriving in Phnom Penh late last year, he was taken directly from the airport to a notorious scam compound near the Thai border, where he was forced to defraud people through online scams.

When he tried to warn one of his targets that he was being scammed, the managers found out and savagely beat him to the point he thought he might die. In the following weeks, he witnessed others being severely abused and the disappearance of co-workers. One jumped from a window in an apparent suicide and was never seen again.

A month later, Eric managed to escape when the Thai military began bombing Cambodia in a skirmish over their shared border. His freedom was short-lived, though. He was re-trafficked to another compound and spent another month in captivity before finally fleeing in mid-January.

Government crackdown

Eric is now stranded in Cambodia, along with thousands of other foreigners who were freed from scam compounds in recent weeks as rumours spread of a massive government crackdown on the industry.

The crackdown began last month after the arrest of Chinese tycoon Chen Zhi, whom the US Justice Department called “the mastermind behind a sprawling cyberfraud empire”.

Chen’s arrest added to growing international pressure on Cambodia to finally confront its role in the booming online scam industry, which brings in billions of dollars a year in illicit revenue and has seen hundreds of thousands of workers trafficked into appalling “scam factories” in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Cambodian authorities have raided compounds before, but these operations have been limited and appeared mainly tokenistic.

The recent crackdown felt different – much broader in scope. Multiple compounds suddenly opened their doors to let people out in January, and a prominent Cambodian businessman linked to the industry and several high-ranking Cambodian officials were arrested.

Stuck in limbo

The mass exodus of workers from the compounds, many of whom lack passports, money or anywhere to go, has now led to what Amnesty International is calling a “growing humanitarian crisis”.

Two of us (Ling and Ivan) were in Cambodia to monitor scam compounds when the crackdown occurred. We saw desperate people without documents queuing in front of their embassies in Phnom Penh, trying to get help to return home.

The Indonesian embassy said more than 3,400 people have sought consular assistance. Based on our conversations with embassy officials, Uganda and Ghana have about 300 stranded nationals each, and Kenya has more than 200.




Read more:
Scam Factories: the inside story of Southeast Asia’s brutal fraud compounds


The Chinese and Indonesian embassies have managed to convince the Cambodian government to move their citizens into facilities while they await deportation. Kenya has obtained a waiver of any fines their citizens may face for lacking documents or overstaying their visas and stranded Kenyans are now scrambling to raise funds to pay for their flights.

Survivors from other countries, however, have been stonewalled by the Cambodian bureaucracy.

Most of the Africans we met are in dire situations. They are from countries without diplomatic representation in Cambodia and have been turned away from international agencies and their local partners because of purported “resource constraints” and limitations imposed by local regulations.

Many survivors have pooled their resources to rent rooms in guesthouses that accept undocumented people, while others are being forced to sleep on the streets or rely on the charity of good samaritans. Many live in fear of arrest because the police are conducting inspections of homes and hotels to check people’s documentation.

Eric is one of the relatively fortunate who have secured temporary shelter, but his future remains deeply uncertain. He has no passport, no family and no country to return to. When asked about his hopes, he says simply he wants a place where he can start over – it doesn’t matter where. He is also desperate to start searching for his family back home. He doesn’t even know if they are still alive.

End of an industry?

Cambodian officials have framed the operations as a decisive break with the past. They have vowed to eradicate the powerful online scam networks in the country by April.

However, it’s unclear if the raids signal a sustained policy shift or are a temporary response to heightened diplomatic scrutiny. Although this is the most comprehensive action Cambodia has taken to date, it is far from the first time the government has cracked down. The industry has always survived.

Empty compounds remain guarded, but we managed to visit one since the crackdown. While the computers, cameras and other items have largely been removed, the physical infrastructure remains intact and ready to be reactivated.

And pockets of the industry remain active. Based on our monitoring of Telegram groups used by scammers and conversations with industry insiders, many are still operating in areas such as Koh Kong and Poipet.

Moreover, scam groups are continuing to recruit workers trapped inside the country. Many of the stranded victims have told us of being approached with job offers, presented as an easy way to earn enough money for a flight home.

Job advertisements are also circulating on Telegram, targeting these same individuals with purported “opportunities” at precisely the moment when they are most vulnerable. Many have endured severe abuse and are in urgent need of psychological support.

So far, the survivors’ appeals to the international community have largely gone unanswered. Without a timely and coordinated intervention to help them, the outlook is bleak, and the advantage will once again lie with the scammers.

The Conversation

In 2024, Ivan co-founded EOS Collective, a non-profit organisation dedicated to investigating the dynamics of the online scam industry and the criminal networks behind it, and supporting survivors of forced criminality in these operations.

Charlotte Setijadi has previously received research funding from Singapore’s Ministry of Education and the Singapore Social Science Research Council. She is currently one of the co-convenors of the University of Melbourne’s Indonesia Forum.

In 2024, Ling Li co-founded EOS Collective, a non-profit organisation dedicated to investigating the dynamics of the online scam industry and the criminal networks behind it, and supporting survivors of forced criminality in these operations.

ref. They escaped appalling conditions in scam factories. Now, they are living on the streets in Cambodia – https://theconversation.com/they-escaped-appalling-conditions-in-scam-factories-now-they-are-living-on-the-streets-in-cambodia-275218

Is Wuthering Heights actually romantic? Heathcliff would say no

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Jodi McAlister, Senior Lecturer in Writing, Literature and Culture, Deakin University

Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi in Wuthering Heights. Photo Courtesy Warner Bros Pictures

Emerald Fennell’s film of Wuthering Heights, starring Australian actors Jacob Elordi as Heathcliff and Margot Robbie as Catherine, bills itself as the “greatest love story of all time”. A poll of British readers agreed.

But what would Heathcliff think?

Heathcliff, if you’ve not read the book, seen one of the many adaptations, or heard Kate Bush’s iconic song, is the protagonist of Wuthering Heights, Emily Brontë’s sole novel (published originally under the pseudonym Ellis Bell). He’s the ethnically ambiguous foster child of the Earnshaw family, who live in the titular Wuthering Heights on the windswept, desolate Yorkshire moors: the backdrop for his obsessive, doomed relationship with his foster-sister Catherine.

In the 14th chapter of the novel, Heathcliff has just married another woman (Isabella Linton, sister of Catherine’s husband Edgar). The novel’s narrator, housekeeper Nelly Dean, chastises him for how badly he’s treating her. Isabella loves him, Nelly tells Heathcliff reproachfully, or she would not have abandoned the comforts of her home in the warm, welcoming, comfortable Thrushcross Grange to marry him and live him in the cold, dreary Wuthering Heights.

“She abandoned them under a delusion,” Heathcliff sneers in response, “picturing in me a hero of romance, and expecting unlimited indulgences from my chivalrous devotion.”

The new film poster evokes a romance ‘clinch cover’.

Here, Heathcliff explicitly rejects the idea he is any kind of romantic hero. However, for more than a century, he has been interpreted as one, with his intense connection with Catherine – a passion that endures long past her death – captivating audiences.

Indeed, this kind of romantic positioning is evident on the film poster, depicting Heathcliff and Catherine. It is strongly reminiscent of a “clinch cover”: common among historical romance novels published in the late 20th and early 21st century (most infamously associated with male model Fabio).

Plenty of modern readers agree with Heathcliff’s self-assessment, though. “Heathcliff from ‘Wuthering Heights’ isn’t a romantic anti-hero,” reads the headline of one article by Christopher Shultz, “he’s a f#$%ing monster”.

A romance?

People regularly claim Wuthering Heights as their favourite romance novel, to the exasperation of romance readers and writers. It might be considered a love story, but Wuthering Heights is not a romance.

This is clear if we look at it against the (embattled) Romance Writers of America definition: a romance novel needs a central love plot and an emotionally satisfying and optimistic ending. Other 19th-century classics fit the bill – Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice, for instance – but Wuthering Heights does not.

The love story between Heathcliff and Catherine is certainly the element of the book most readers remember – and, indeed, many adaptations focus on it almost entirely. However, the couple are never actually together in any formal way, and their tortured relationship consumes surprisingly little page space.

Jacob Elordi as Heathcliff: a darkly brooding, well-dressed man sits on an ornate blue couch with gold, arm outstretched
People regularly claim Wuthering Heights as their favourite romance novel.
Photo Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures

Notably, Catherine dies approximately halfway through the book. While Heathcliff is tormented by grief for the rest of it, the primary action shifts to their children. This makes it difficult to argue theirs is a “central” love story.

Given Catherine’s death and Heathcliff’s subsequent misery, it is also difficult to make a case that Wuthering Heights has an optimistic ending.

The book ends with a potentially happy union between Catherine’s daughter (also named Catherine) and her cousin Hareton, and the suggestion Heathcliff and his Catherine might be wandering the moors together as ghosts. This is arguably emotionally satisfying – they are together in death the way they were never in life – but not really optimism, especially taking into account the many lives they destroyed along the way.

Dark dynamics

So – if Wuthering Heights is not a romance per se, can we argue that it is romantic?

This hinges on how we define romantic. There’s no doubt that it’s Romantic, with a capital R. Wuthering Heights is deeply influenced by Romanticism, a literary and artistic movement which emphasised intense feeling and passion over logic and reason.

Modern conceptions of romance, though, place more of an emphasis on intimacy, closeness and overall functionality. Britain’s Romantic Novel of the Year awards, for instance, require a “healthy relationship dynamic between the main characters” – and even the biggest fans of the book would find it hard to argue Heathcliff and Catherine’s relationship is in any way healthy.

A tall, handsome, brooding man and a beautiful blonde woman in a red leatherette and blousy white gown
Even the biggest fans of the book would probably not argue Heathcliff and Catherine’s relationship is in any way healthy.
Photo Courtesy Warner Bros Pictures

This said, some of the most popular romance subgenres at the moment revel in dynamics which are – like Heathcliff and Catherine’s – dangerous, intense, destructive and toxic. Dark romance is the most notable example.

Amoral people, illicit passion

As English professor David Shumway notes in his book Modern Love, romantic love was long considered a “destructive passion” – something that was a threat to marriage, rather than its building block. He writes:

In the nineteenth century, romance became grafted onto marriage, but it has never become entirely at ease with the union. This combination produced a tension within the discourse because [romance’s] essential characteristics derive from adulterous love.

Wuthering Heights was published in 1847, right in the middle of the 19th century. In it, we see this tension between companionate marital love and adulterous passion played out. Catherine swears repeatedly that she loves her husband Edgar, but this is at best an uneasy love: a pale shadow of the immense, destructive passion she has for Heathcliff.

“You loved me — then what right had you to leave me?” Heathcliff demands of Catherine on her deathbed.

What right — answer me — for the poor fancy you felt for Linton? […] I have not broken your heart — you have broken it; and in breaking it, you have broken mine.

The appeal of a genre like dark romance – of which Wuthering Heights is surely an ancestor – is its excessive intensity. While dark romance today ends happily, the intensity of Heathcliff and Catherine’s adulterous passion might have been muted if they had ended up together in romantic bliss – and, as a result, this book might not be half so compelling.

Speaking broadly, Heathcliff and Catherine are two mostly amoral people who bring destruction to the lives of everyone around them (as well as each other). Whether or not we consider it “romantic”, it is the force of their illicit passion that has made Wuthering Heights memorable.

The Conversation

Jodi McAlister received an Romance Writers of America academic grant in 2019.

ref. Is Wuthering Heights actually romantic? Heathcliff would say no – https://theconversation.com/is-wuthering-heights-actually-romantic-heathcliff-would-say-no-273689

Exercise can be as effective as medication for depression and anxiety – new study

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Neil Munro, PhD Candidate in Psychology, James Cook University

Organic Media/Getty

Depression and anxiety affect millions of people worldwide.

While treatments such as medication and psychotherapy (sometimes called talk therapy) can be very effective, they’re not always an option. Barriers include cost, stigma, long waiting lists for appointments, and potential drug side effects.

So what about exercise? Our new research, published today, confirms physical activity can be just as effective for some people as therapy or medication. This is especially true when it’s social and guided by a professional, such as a gym class or running club.

Let’s take a look at the evidence.

What we already knew

Physical activity has long been promoted as a treatment option for anxiety and depression, largely because it helps release “feel good” chemicals in the brain which help boost mood and reduce stress.

But the evidence can be confusing. Hundreds of studies with diverse results make it unclear how much exercise is beneficial, what type, and who it helps most.

Over the past two decades, researchers have conducted dozens of separate meta-analyses (studies that combine results from multiple trials) examining exercise for depression and anxiety. But these have still left gaps in understanding how effective exercise is for different age groups and whether the type of exercise matters.

Many studies have also included participants with confounding factors (influences that can distort research findings) such as other chronic diseases, for example, diabetes or arthritis. This means it can be hard to apply the findings more broadly.

What we did

Our research aimed to resolve this confusion by conducting a “meta-meta-analysis”. This means we systematically reviewed the results of all the existing meta-analyses – there were 81 – to determine what the evidence really shows.

Together, this meant data from nearly 80,000 participants across more than 1,000 original trials.

We examined multiple factors that might explain why their results varied. These included differences in:

  • who they studied (for example, people with diagnosed depression or anxiety versus those just experiencing symptoms, different age groups, and women during pregnancy and after birth)

  • what the exercise involved (for example, comparing aerobic fitness to resistance training and mind-body exercises, such as yoga; whether it was supervised by a professional; intensity and duration)

  • whether the exercise was individual or in a group.

We also used advanced statistical techniques to accurately isolate and estimate the exact impact of exercise, separate from confounding factors (including other chronic diseases).

Our data looked at the impact of exercise alone on depression and anxiety. But sometimes people will also use antidepressants and/or therapy – so further research would be needed to explore the effect of these when combined.

What did the study find?

Exercise is effective at reducing both depression and anxiety. But there is some nuance.

We found exercising had a high impact on depression symptoms, and a medium impact on anxiety, compared to staying inactive.

The benefits were comparable to, and in some cases better than, more widely prescribed mental health treatments, including therapy and antidepressants.

Importantly, we discovered who exercise helped most. Two groups showed the most improvement: adults aged 18 to 30 and women who had recently given birth.

Many women experience barriers to exercising after giving birth, including lack of time, confidence or access to appropriate and affordable activities.

Our findings suggest making it more accessible could be an important strategy to address new mothers’ mental health in this vulnerable time.

How you exercise matters

We also found aerobic activities – such as walking, running, cycling or swimming – were best at reducing both depression and anxiety symptoms.

However, all forms of exercise reduced symptoms, including resistance training (such as lifting weights) and mind-body practices (such as yoga).

For depression, there were greater improvements when people exercised with others and were guided by a professional, such as a group fitness class.

Unfortunately, there wasn’t available data on group or supervised exercise for anxiety, so we would need more research to find out if the impact is similar.

Exercising once or twice a week had a similar effect on depression as exercising more frequently. And there didn’t seem to be a significant difference between exercising vigorously or at a low intensity – all were beneficial.

But for anxiety, the best improvements in anxiety symptoms were when exercise was done:

  • consistently, for up to eight weeks, and

  • at a lower intensity, such as walking or swimming laps at a gentle pace.

So, what does all this mean?

Our research shows exercise is a legitimate and evidence-based treatment option for depression and anxiety, particularly for people with diagnosed conditions.

However, simply telling patients to “exercise more” is unlikely to be effective.

The evidence shows structured, supervised exercise with a social component is best for improving depression and anxiety. The social aspect and the accountability may help keep people motivated.

Clinicians should keep this in mind, offering referrals to specific programs – such as aerobic fitness classes or supervised walking and running programs – rather than general advice.

The findings also suggest this kind of exercise can be particularly effective when targeted to depression in younger adults and women who’ve recently given birth.

The takeaway

For people who are hesitant about medication, or facing long waits for therapy, supervised group exercise may be an effective alternative. It’s evidence-based, and you can start any time.

But it’s still best to get advice from a professional. If you have anxiety or depression symptoms, you should talk to your GP or psychologist. They can advise where exercise fits in your treatment plan, potentially alongside therapy and/or medication.

The Conversation

Samantha Teague receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC).

James Dimmock, Klaire Somoray, and Neil Munro do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Exercise can be as effective as medication for depression and anxiety – new study – https://theconversation.com/exercise-can-be-as-effective-as-medication-for-depression-and-anxiety-new-study-272243

From Bridgerton to Heated Rivalry, what’s the secret to a good book-to-TV romance?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Jodi McAlister, Senior Lecturer in Writing, Literature and Culture, Deakin University

HBO/Netflix/The Conversation

Outside of classics like Pride and Prejudice, romance fiction has not historically been adapted often for the screen, despite its immense popularity.

The success of Bridgerton (2020–) led to countless articles about what romance novels should be adapted for the screen next when it first premiered.

Now more and more romance adaptations are starting to appear – but what makes the translation from page to screen really sing?

The history of romance novel adaptations

Romance adaptations have given us cultural juggernauts, such as Twilight (2008–12), Fifty Shades of Grey (2015–18) and To All The Boys I’ve Loved Before (2018–21).

But romance adaptations have historically been low-budget and escaped mainstream notice.

Authors like Nora Roberts and Debbie Macomber have proved fruitful grounds for made-for-TV adaptations by Hallmark and Lifetime. Passionflix entered the streaming market in 2017 with the sole purpose to adapt romance novels – including Lick (2024) by Australian author Kylie Scott.

Canadian streamer Crave has turned several romances into TV movies, such as Recipe for Romance (2025), an adaptation of Sweet on You by Filipino author Carla de Guzman. Amazon has also joined the game.

The proportion of books that have made it to the screen (and into cultural conversation) is still small. But the needle is moving. This year sees adaptations of Ali Hazelwood’s The Love Hypothesis, Katherine Center’s The Bodyguard, Elle Kennedy’s Off Campus and Emily Henry’s People We Meet On Vacation.

This is to say nothing of the game-changing popularity of a romance adaptation by Crave released late in 2025: Heated Rivalry.

While it has always been popular, romance has become too prominent to ignore: BookTok and Bookstagram have made romance – and its enormous audience – more visible than ever before.

What makes a good romance adaptation?

Romance readers will embrace or reject an adaptation depending on whether the creators love and respect the genre or misunderstand and misrepresent it – or, worse, condescend to and exploit it.

Heated Rivalry shows what happens when a creator truly, in romance critic Olivia Waite’s words, “accept[s] romance’s invitations”.

Rival hockey players Shane Hollander (Hudson Williams) and Ilya Rozanov (Connor Storrie) commence a clandestine affair as rookies and gradually fall in love. The series has surpassed 600 million viewing minutes and shows no sign of slowing down.

It has been so successful that Netflix promised the new season of Bridgerton would take audiences to “the cottage”: a reference to that series’ third episode – and a term now synonymous with Heated Rivalry’s finale and happy ending.

The happy ending is crucial to the romance genre, but it is not the only thing Heated Rivalry gets right. While not all romance novel adaptations should be carbon copies of this series, anyone considering adapting romance for the screen in future would be well served to look at what it does right.

Romance novels are stories of a small, compact universe. At the centre is a couple (or polycule’s) attraction and journey towards a serious relationship. Sub-plots and supporting characters matter to the extent that they are part of this journey. In a romance, the leads are all romance fans care about.

This is something Bridgerton has struggled with. While it centres a new lead couple each season, it is also concerned with servicing the plotlines of past and future leads. This has led to a proliferation of subplots, which often distract from the romantic spine.

Heated Rivalry consistently centres Shane and Ilya. Taking place over ten years, during which period both men presumably live full lives, creator Jacob Tierney spotlights the sporadic, stolen moments they are together. The secondary romance between hockey player Scott Hunter (François Arnaud) and his secret smoothie barista boyfriend Kip (Robbie CK) is mostly siloed to its own self-contained episode, with its relevance to the main plot made crystal clear at the end of episode five.

The love plot must be central, and must be treated with the deepest sincerity and gravity. Romance is an inherently earnest genre. It is often funny, but it is never ironic.

Red, White & Royal Blue (2023), adapted from Casey McQuiston’s book, received mixed reviews for glossing over many of the book’s complexities. But one of its successes is treating the high-concept love plot between a British prince and the son of the United States president seriously. (Their happy ending is bound up with a broader political one: a successful US re-election representing a liberal wing; the potential promise of a more progressive monarchy.)

The love at the romance novel’s heart – and the attendant joy and hope of the happy ending – is serious business, and must be treated as such for an adaptation to succeed.

This aspect of romance is often positioned as a “guilty pleasure”, something to be embarrassed by or make fun of, but it is hard to overstate how vital it is to the success of the form.

The worst mistake an adaptation of a romance can make is being ashamed of where it came from. Romance readers are well aware when someone is sneering at them, or trying to take advantage of the lucrative market they represent while trying to “elevate” the genre by chipping away at its core tenets and pleasures.

Heated Rivalry is the only adaptation that has entirely and wholeheartedly embraced the invitations of the romance genre, foregrounding romance and leaning pronouncedly into sincerity. We hope many more adaptations will learn from it going forward.

The Conversation

Jodi McAlister is the current president of the International Association for the Study of Popular Romance.

Jayashree Kamble is past President of the International Association for the Study of Popular Romance

ref. From Bridgerton to Heated Rivalry, what’s the secret to a good book-to-TV romance? – https://theconversation.com/from-bridgerton-to-heated-rivalry-whats-the-secret-to-a-good-book-to-tv-romance-273577

Christchurch terror appeal: why now, and what is really being decided?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Kris Gledhill, Professor of Law, Auckland University of Technology

Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

The New Zealand Court of Appeal is this week hearing a case that is unusual in a number of respects.

The person bringing it is Brenton Harrison Tarrant, the 35-year-old Australian man convicted and sentenced for the murder of 51 people in Christchurch in March 2019.

Tarrant – who earlier pleaded guilty to those murders, along with attempting to murder 40 others and committing the acts as terrorism – is seeking to reopen his conviction and sentence.

At first glance, this might seem baffling: how can a person who earlier admitted to serious crimes – and who was sentenced years ago – be trying to appeal? The answer lies in some important rules that illustrate how New Zealand’s legal system works.

Tarrant was sentenced five years ago. How can he appeal now?

Legal systems have to balance competing principles. One principle is that decisions by criminal courts should be final, so that those affected can move on.

At the same time, it is important the decision is the right one, since an incorrect finding by a criminal court is problematic.

As a result, those convicted have a right to appeal, but the Criminal Procedure Act 2011 gives them 20 days to file their application. Additionally, the Appeal Court can extend that time limit if there are good reasons to override the need for finality.

So, the hearing now before the court is actually an application for an extension of time. Tarrant’s notice of appeal against conviction and sentence was filed in November 2022: it should have been filed in September 2020, as he was sentenced in August 2020. So the application is to extend time by over two years.

If the Court of Appeal is not persuaded there are good reasons to extend the time limit, the judges will refuse the application to extend time. There is one final avenue then, which is an application to the Supreme Court.

But he pleaded guilty. How can he appeal that?

A second part of the application Tarrant has made is to set aside his guilty pleas. This can happen for various reasons. The central argument he has raised is that he was acting irrationally when he pleaded guilty because of mental health issues caused by prison conditions.

An admission of guilt, which in this case led to the severest sentence available in our legal system – life without parole – has to be an informed decision. The legal system has processes for when people are not fit to stand trial.

If it is a temporary problem, trials can be adjourned until the person is well enough. If it is a more long-term problem, there can be a modified trial that looks at whether the person did the acts charged without looking at whether they had a criminal state of mind.

That is why the evidence before the Court of Appeal includes him, his trial lawyers and experts. This will allow an assessment of the reliability of the pleas that were entered.

This is the real issue for the Court of Appeal. If the guilty pleas can’t be relied on, that might be a good reason to extend time. However, that is not automatic. The legal test is whether there has been a miscarriage of justice.

This allows the Court of Appeal to consider whether the evidence available showed guilt beyond a reasonable doubt in any event. An admission of guilt and a finding of guilt by a court weighing the evidence lead to the same verdict.

Why don’t we know the names of his lawyers?

Another unusual feature of this case is that we don’t know the names of Tarrant’s lawyers. This is because, in a judgment in November 2024, the Court of Appeal allowed them to be anonymous. This rested on evidence of concerns for their safety.

The Supreme Court declined to hear a further appeal against this ruling. This is why the appeal is being heard in a closed court but with a delayed video link.

This reveals that some people misunderstand the role of defence lawyers. The legal system only works if lawyers are willing to represent unpopular people and present their case in a professional manner.

This does not mean the lawyer believes in or otherwise supports the person they are representing. Rather, they are doing a job that is necessary for the legal system to work properly.

But wasn’t the evidence clear?

Most people charged by the police plead guilty or are found guilty; and most appeals are unsuccessful. But in a minority of situations, police and prosecutors or trial courts don’t get it right.

There have been past instances where people have made confessions to things they did not actually do or did not do with a criminal state of mind.

No-one benefits from an incorrect guilty verdict. That is why we have appeals, including appeals out of time, and a Criminal Cases Review Commission.

Particularly for such a uniquely horrible event, and when the sentence imposed is the most severe one our system can impose, it is important to be sure it was correct. That is what is being assessed. It is also why the Court of Appeal has appointed a lawyer to be on stand-by in case the lawyers for the defence are sacked.

Something similar happened at the sentencing hearing: the trial judge appointed a lawyer to make arguments at the sentencing hearing because Tarrant seemingly accepted the sentence of life without parole and told his lawyers not to argue against it.

The resilience of the victims and their families is again on display. For them in particular, but also for New Zealand more generally, we should remember that court judgments are also important historical records.

Judges give reasoned findings into significant events. The three judges of the Court of Appeal are playing this important role, with the assistance of all the lawyers involved.

The Conversation

Kris Gledhill is currently working on a criminal sentencing project funded by the Borrin Foundation, and is a member of the Executive Committee of the Criminal Bar Association, which represents prosecution and defence lawyers. The views expressed here are his own.

ref. Christchurch terror appeal: why now, and what is really being decided? – https://theconversation.com/christchurch-terror-appeal-why-now-and-what-is-really-being-decided-275541

From ‘this machine kills fascists’ to ‘King Trump’s private army’: the art of protest music

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Panizza Allmark, Professor of Visual & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University

Alex Kormann/The Minnesota Star Tribune and Michael Ochs Archives, via Getty

In January, over the course of three days, Bruce Springsteen wrote, recorded and released the political protest song Streets of Minneapolis.

The song’s release was a matter of urgency and reflects Springsteen’s fury towards the Minneapolis immigration enforcement operation from the United States Department of Homeland Security with around 2,000 Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers and agents.

Last month, Renée Good and Alex Pretti were killed by ICE in separate incidents. In his lyrics, Springsteen names them as a memorial tribute, “citizens [who] stood for justice”. He refers to ICE as “King Trump’s private army”.

Springsteen marches in the footsteps of protest songs from legendary artists such as Woody Guthrie and Bob Dylan who raised their lyrical voices in a direct response against injustice.

The Dust Bowl migrants

On January 30 Tom Morello, the guitarist with social activist rock band Rage Against the Machine, held a benefit concert to support the families of the Minneapolis ICE shooting victims.

Morello described it as “a concert of solidarity and resistance to defend Minnesota” and against “the rising tide of the state of terror”.

Springsteen was a surprise guest artist. In addition to performing Streets of Minneapolis he played his 1995 song, The Ghost of Tom Joad.

Tom Joad is a character in John Steinbeck’s 1939 novel The Grapes of Wrath, about the Dust Bowl migrants from Oklahoma. During the Great Depression, the Dust Bowl migrants left Oklahoma and travelled west, forced off the land by drought and the intensive farming methods. Springsteen’s song describes “the new world order” where homelessness, policing and inequality prevail.

Woody Guthrie also sang about Tom Joad on his 1940 album Dust Bowl Ballads. Guthrie travelled south to California with migrants who scraped a living working in others’ fields and picking fruit in others’ orchards.

Tom Joad is a working class man who stands up to authority through the call for collective action. Guthrie’s two songs about the character featured on Guthrie’s first and most successful recording, bring national attention to the plight of the Dust Bowl farmers.

Guthrie emblazoned on his guitars the slogan “This machine kills fascists”.

The civil rights movement

When Robert Zimmerman left his parental home in Hibbing, Minnesota, to reinvent himself in New York as Bob Dylan, he achieved his desire to meet Guthrie.

One of Dylan’s very early compositions was The Death Of Emmett Till, which he performed for a Congress on Racial Equality benefit concert in 1962. It didn’t appear on an album until the compilation album Broadside Ballads, Vol.6, in 1972, under his pseudonym Blind Boy Grunt.

Emmett Till was a 14-year-old Black boy who was brutally murdered in 1955 by two white brothers in Mississippi. His murder, and their acquittal by an all white jury, caused public outrage, and became a catalyst of the Civil Rights Movement. Emmett Till has been memorialised in many songs, but Dylan’s focus, with an accusation in the lyrics that the jury “helped the brothers”, is the most well-known tribute.

Dylan went on to write many songs for the civil rights movement and anti-war songs such as Blowin’ In The Wind, Masters of War and A Hard Rain’s Gonna Fall, all on his second album, The Freewheelin’ Bob Dylan (1963).

The Vietnam War

In 1970, Neil Young composed Ohio about the murder by Ohio National Guard of four protesters against the Vietnam War on the campus of Kent State University. The song was recorded by Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young but the studio version only appeared on the 1974 compilation, So Far.

The activist rock song became an anthem of the anti-Vietnam War movement. Young’s horror toward the killing of protestors motivated him to write and record the song quickly, with a rush to release it.

The song got radio play, but was banned by some stations for its anti-war sentiments. Within three weeks of the shooting, it reached number 14 on the Billboard charts. The opening lyrics, “Tin soldiers and Nixon coming, we’re finally on our own”, remarks on a heightened state of alert for ordinary people.

Trump’s America

The title of Lucinda Williams’ first overtly political album, 2025’s World’s Gone Wrong, echoes Dylan’s 1993 album, World Gone Wrong.

Music magazine Uncut called it a “compelling, compassionate, state of the nation address”.

The album focuses on the destruction of civil society in Trump’s America. Something’s Gotta Give is a song of anger and disillusionment with America. Black Tears connects present day America to its long history of injustice with the lyrics “400 years is long enough, How long will [Black tears] rain down?”.

Jesse Welles’ song Join ICE is a satirical recruitment song, adopting the tone of a recruitment pitch to expose the abuse of power “If you’re lackin’ control and authority, come with me and hunt down minorities,” he sings.

Popular music, especially in America, has always been bound up with political commentary.

But it hasn’t always been on the side of the oppressed. Written and sung by Staff Sergeant Barry Sadler, The Ballad Of The Green Berets, supporting the United States Army Special Forces in Vietnam, was number one on the Billboard singles charts for five weeks in 1966.

Can a Trump acolyte manage a similar feat about ICE?

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. From ‘this machine kills fascists’ to ‘King Trump’s private army’: the art of protest music – https://theconversation.com/from-this-machine-kills-fascists-to-king-trumps-private-army-the-art-of-protest-music-274974

Can Australia build one of the world’s largest data centres?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Bronwyn Cumbo, Lecturer, Transdisciplinary School, University of Technology Sydney

The Conversation, CC BY-SA

➡️ Click here to read the full interactive

The Conversation

Bronwyn Cumbo receives funding from the Australia Public Policy Challenge Grant for her research investigating possibilities and challenges to establishing New South Wales as a sustainable data centre hub.

Digital Storytelling Team does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Can Australia build one of the world’s largest data centres? – https://theconversation.com/can-australia-build-one-of-the-worlds-largest-data-centres-273703

Where are Europe’s oldest people living? What geography tells us about a fragmenting continent

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Florian Bonnet, Démographe et économiste, spécialiste des inégalités territoriales, Ined (Institut national d’études démographiques)

For over a century and a half, life expectancy has steadily increased in the wealthiest countries. Spectacular climbs in longevity have been noted in the 20th Century, correlating with the slump in infectious illnesses and advances in cardiovascular medicine.

However, for some years now, experts have been obsessing over one question: when is this slick mechanism going to run out of steam? In several western countries, gains in life expectancy have become so slight, they are practically non-existent.

Some researchers see this as a sign that we are heading toward a ‘biological human longevity ceiling’ while others estimate that there is still room for improvement.

Looking at national figures alone cannot be a decider. Behind a country’s average life expectancy lies very contrasted, region-specific realities. This is what the findings of our study that was recently published in Nature Communications revealed. Analysing data collected between 1992 and 2019, it focuses on 450 regions in western Europe bringing together almost 400 million inhabitants.

A European study on an unprecedented scale

To complete our research project, we collected mortality and demographic data from offices for national statistics across 13 western European countries including Spain, Denmark, Portugal and Switzerland.

We began by harmonising the original data, a task that proved crucial because the regions differed in size, and data offered varying amounts of detail according to each country.

Then we recalculated the annual gain in life expectancy at birth for each region between 1992 and 2019, an indicator, which reflects mortality across all ages. Sophisticated statistical methods allowed us to pick out the main underlying trends, regardless of short-term fluctuations caused by the heatwave in 2003, or virulent, seasonal flu outbreaks between 2014-2015, for instance. 2019 is the cut-off date for our analyses because it is still too early to know whether the coronavirus pandemic has a long term effect on these trends or if it was limited to 2020-2022.

The results we obtained provide us with an unprecedented panorama of regional longevity trajectories across Europe over an almost 30-year period, from which we draw three findings.

First finding: Human longevity has not hit its limits

The first message to emerge from the study is that: the limits of human longevity have still not been reached. If we concentrate on regions that are life expectancy champions (indicated in blue on the chart below), we note that there is no indication of progress decelerating.

Evolution of life expectancy in vanguard and lagging regions in Western Europe, 1992–2019. The red line (and blue, respectively) represents the mean life expectancy at birth of regions belonging to the top decile (and inferior, respectively) of the distribution. The black line indicates the average of all of 450 regions. The minimal and maximal values are represented by specific symbols corresponding to the regions concerned.
Florian Bonnet, Fourni par l’auteur

These regions continue to demonstrate around a two and half month gain in life expectancy per year for men, and approximately one and a half month gain in life expectancy for women, at an equivalent rate to those observed in previous decades. In 2019, they include regions in Northern Italy, Switzerland and some Spanish provinces.

For France, Paris and its surrounding Hauts-de-Seine or Yvelines areas (pertaining to both men and women), featured alongside the Anjou region and areas bordering with Switzerland (only applicable to women). In 2019, life expectancy reached 83 for men, and 87 for women.

In other words, despite recurrent concerns nothing presently indicates that lifespan progression has hit a glass ceiling; prolonging life expectancy remains possible. This is a fundamental result which counters sweeping, alarmist statements: there is room for improvement.

Second finding: regional diversity since the mid 2000s

The picture looks bleaker when considering regions with ‘lagging’ life expectancy rates, indicated in red on the chart. In the 1990s and in the early 2000s, these regions saw rapid gains in life expectancy. Progress was much faster here than anywhere else, leading to a convergence in regional life expectancy across Europe.

This golden age, accumulating a fast rise in life expectancy in Europe and a reduction in regional disparities came to an end towards 2005. In the most challenged regions, whether it be East Germany, Wallonia in Belgium or certain parts of the United Kingdom, life expectancy gains significantly dropped, practically reaching a standstill. In women, no regions in France featured among them, but in men, they included some departments in the Hauts-de-France.

Longevity in Europe is ultimately divided into vanguard regions that continue to progress on one side, and on the other side, lagging regions where the dynamic is running out of steam and is even reversed. We are experiencing a regional discrepancy that contrasts with the catch-up momentum in the 1990s.

Third finding: the decisive role of mortality at ages 55-74

Why such a shift? Beyond age-specific life expectancy, we sought to gain a better understanding of this spectacular change by analysing how mortality rates have evolved for each age bracket.

We can state that regional divergence can neither be explained by the rise in infantile mortality (which remains very slight) nor by the rise in mortality in the over 75 age range (which continues to decelerate everywhere). It mainly stems from mortality around age 65.

In the 1990s this demonstrated a rapid drop, thanks to access to cardiovascular treatments and changes in risk-taking behaviour. But since the 2000s, this upturn has slowed. In some regions, in the last few years, the risk of dying between 55 and 74 years old is on the rise, as shown in the maps below.

Annual percentage changes in the probability of dying between ages 55 and 74 for men (left) and women (right) in 450 regions across western Europe between 2018 and 2019.
Florian Bonnet, Fourni par l’auteur

This is particularly true for women living in France’s Mediterranean coastal regions (indicated in pale pink). It’s also the case for most of Germany. However, these intermediary ages are crucial for the life expectancy gain dynamic, because a large number of deaths occur here. Stagnation or a leap in mortality between ages 55 and 74 is enough to break the overall trend.

Even though our study does not allow us to pinpoint the precise causes explaining such preoccupying progress, recent documentation provides us with some leads which should be scientifically tested in the future. Among these are risk-taking behaviour, particularly smoking, drinking alcohol and poor nutrition, or a lack of physical exercise, which are all factors that manifest at these ages.

Incidentally, the economic crash in 2008 accentuated regional variations across Europe. Some regions suffered durably seeing the health of their populations compromised, while further growth was recorded in other regions with a concentration of highly qualified employment. These factors remind us that longevity isn’t just about advances in medicine; it can also be explained by social and economic factors.

What’s next?

Our report offers a dual message. Yes, it’s possible to increase life expectancy. Europe’s regional champions are proof of this, as they continue to demonstrate steady growth without showing any signs of plateauing. However, this progress does not apply to everyone. For fifteen years, part of Europe has been lagging behind, largely due to a rise in mortality around 65 years.

Even today, the future of human longevity seems to depend less on the existence of a hypothetical biological ceiling than on our collective ability to reduce gaps in life expectancy. Recent trends lead us to believe that Europe could well end up as a two-tier system, setting apart a minority of areas that keep pushing the boundaries of longevity and a majority of areas where gains dwindle.

In actual fact, the question is not only how far can we extend life expectancy, but which parts of Europe are eligible.


For further reading

Our detailed results, region by region, are available in our interactive online application.


A weekly e-mail in English featuring expertise from scholars and researchers. It provides an introduction to the diversity of research coming out of the continent and considers some of the key issues facing European countries. Get the newsletter!


The Conversation

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. Where are Europe’s oldest people living? What geography tells us about a fragmenting continent – https://theconversation.com/where-are-europes-oldest-people-living-what-geography-tells-us-about-a-fragmenting-continent-274550

Japan’s rock star leader now has the political backing to push a bold agenda. Will she deliver?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer in International Studies in the School of Society and Culture, Adelaide University

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has delivered her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections she called shortly after taking office.

Now that she has consolidated her power in Japan’s legislature (called the Diet), the big question is what she will do with it.

Since her ascent to the prime ministership in a parliamentary vote in October, the ultra conservative Takaichi has upended the normally staid Japanese political system.

She has connected with younger voters like no other Japanese leader in recent history with her savvy social media presence, iconic fashion sense and diplomatic flair. (In a literal rock-star moment, she showed off her drumming skills in a jam session with South Korea’s leader.)

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on the drums together.

Takaichi has cannily taken advantage of the honeymoon phase of her leadership by calling a snap election to gain more power in the Diet before there’s a dip in her popularity.

However, voters will now expect to see a return on their investment, and Takaichi faces the much more daunting task of delivering on her promises. Improving living standards in a country with a rapidly shrinking workforce and ageing population without mass immigration will test her political skills much more than winning an election.

An unlikely election victory

Although Takaichi’s LDP has been in government for most of Japan’s post-war history, it has recently experienced a string of poor election results.

In 2024, it lost the lower house majority it held with its then-coalition partner, Komeito, after a series of corruption scandals. Then, last year, the coalition lost its majority in the upper house, leaving the government hanging by a thread.

The party began its remarkable turnaround following then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation in September in the wake of those electoral setbacks.

Many pre-election polls predicted a sizeable victory for the LDP and its new coalition partner, Nippon Ishin (the Japan Innovation Party). Takaichi also received a boost with an endorsement from US President Donald Trump. Although the Japanese public views Trump unfavourably, they also know the US is their ultimate security guarantor against China, in addition to Japan’s largest export destination.

Nevertheless, there were some doubts about whether Takaichi’s popularity, particularly among younger voters, would translate into votes.

In the end, her electoral gold dust rubbed off on the rest of her party. Despite freezing temperatures and record snow in places, the LDP has been comfortably returned to office with a vastly increased majority in the lower house. The coalition now has a two-thirds super-majority, which means she can override the upper house to push through her legislative agenda.

A more assertive posture on China?

Since becoming prime minister, the hawkish Takaichi has taken an assertive position towards China.

In November, she angered Beijing by saying Japan could intervene militarily to help protect Taiwan in the face of a potential Chinese invasion. This resulted in vicious Chinese attacks on Takaichi that continued into the new year.

While the Japanese public is divided over whether to come to Taiwan’s aid in any conflict with China, there is now strong support for Takaichi’s pledge to increase the defence budget to 2% of GDP by this March, two years ahead of schedule.

In December, the Cabinet approved a 9.4% increase in defence spending to achieve this objective, focusing on domestic production and advanced capabilities (cyber, space, long-range strikes).

In response to rising threats from China, North Korea and Russia, Takaichi’s government also plans to revise Japan’s core security and defence strategies this year.

Economic woes front and centre

As much as defence matters, Takaichi will ultimately be judged by the public when it comes to economic policy.

The public is increasingly concerned about rising inflation and stagnant wages leading to falling living standards.

A vivid illustration of this: the price of rice has doubled since 2024, hitting a new high last month. Public anger over rising rice prices even brought down the farm minister last year.

Inflation has been above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 45 straight months. And though nominal wages have recently picked up, real incomes have been decreasing for the last four years.

Takaichi has made tackling the cost of living a priority. She has vowed to suspend Japan’s 8% food tax for two years. And last year, her government announced a massive US$135 billion (A$192 billion) stimulus package, including subsidies for electricity and gas bills.

However, these policies will increase the government’s budget deficit, adding to the country’s already sky-high public debt levels.

And last month, Japanese government bond prices collapsed after Takaichi called the election, with the markets predicting a LDP win would result in looser fiscal policy and higher government debt.

The Bank of Japan is unlikely to intervene to support the bond market in any future crisis, which will leave the government with higher borrowing costs, further increasing public debt.

Japan also faces enormous challenges related to its shrinking population and workforce.

It is too early to know whether Takaichi has the answers to these challenges. But she now has the power, authority and freedom to boldly pursue her policy agenda. Now she will need to deliver the kind of change the electorate expects.

The Conversation

Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Japan’s rock star leader now has the political backing to push a bold agenda. Will she deliver? – https://theconversation.com/japans-rock-star-leader-now-has-the-political-backing-to-push-a-bold-agenda-will-she-deliver-274015