Category: The Conversation – Africa

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Arno J. van Niekerk, Senior lecturer in Economics, University of the Free State

Over the past two decades, economic strength, trade flows, technological leadership and even consumer demand have been moving steadily from west to east. This transformation is redrawing economic maps. It is also raising urgent questions about co-operation, competition and inclusion in a multipolar world. Lecturer in economics and finance Arno van Niekerk answers questions about these issues, which he explores in a new book, West to East: A New Global Economy in the Making?

What indicates a shift from west to east?

Brics countries, largely driven by China and India, overtook the G7 countries in their share of global GDP in 2018. As Figure 1 shows, the Brics contribution has grown from 32.33% of global GDP to 35.43% in 2024 (after being at 21.37% in 2000).

Figure 1

The G7’s share decreased to 29.64%, from 43.28% in 2000.

This marks a historic turning point. Economic leadership that was long concentrated in the west has decisively shifted towards emerging economies.

Another strong indicator of the shift is the change in global shares of trade of the G7 and Brics countries. This is particularly true of exports. Data shows that Brics+ (11 countries, including new members) captured 28% of world exports in 2024, closing in on the G7’s 32%.

The rebalancing of global trade dynamics has wide-ranging consequences for international business. It means, especially in the case of China and India, that these economies are doing more than expanding in scale. They are also integrating effectively into global value chains, improving productivity and raising living standards.

As shown in Figure 2, the share of global merchandise exports of the G7 countries fell from 45.1% in 2000 to 28.9% in 2023. For their part, the Brics+ share rose from 10.7% (2000) to 23.3% (2023).

Figure 2

There are other indicators too:

• Over two-thirds of global foreign exchange reserves are held in Asia. In particular, in China (US$3 trillion), Japan, India and South Korea. Large reserves indicate that a nation earns more from exports, investment inflows and remittances than it spends on imports and debt payments.

• China has displaced western dominance in foreign direct investment in developing regions. Through its Belt and Road Initiative – involving over 150 countries – it has become the world’s largest source of outbound foreign direct investment.

• Asia now accounts for more than half of the global middle class, driving demand growth. Asia is projected to represent over 50% of global consumer spending. This compares with less than 20% in 1990.

• China, India, South Korea and Japan have become leaders in financial technology, artificial intelligence and 5G adoption. China now files more international patents annually than the US and European Union combined. Specifically, the tech rivalry between the US and China illustrates the change in technological leadership.

What does this shift tell us about economic co-operation?

Countries in both the east and the west need to make more intentional efforts. This is necessary, firstly, to address the growing geoeconomic tension. And secondly to move the world towards a shared vision for sustainable economic progress that benefits all countries.

Such co-operation needs to go beyond traditional trade and investment agreements. It should be deliberately structured to reduce inequalities, strengthen resilience and embed sustainability.

I identify five main areas for co-operative initiatives.

Co-ordinated policy frameworks: tax co-operation in the form of global minimum corporate taxes to ensure fair revenue for social investment. Harmonise labour and social protections through common standards to prevent exploitation. Align sustainable development by embedding the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement targets and human rights principles into trade and financial agreements.

Inclusive trade and investment: fair trade agreements to ensure that market access benefits small producers, women and marginalised communities. Establish regional value chains that support developing countries in upgrading within global value chains – so that they don’t just supply raw materials. Design co-operative frameworks for technology transfer, especially for sharing green and digital technologies at affordable costs.

Financial co-operation: innovative financing mechanisms, such as green and social bonds, blended finance and climate funds need to be made accessible to low-income countries. Implement co-operative mechanisms for debt relief and restructuring. This will help address unsustainable debt that crowds out social spending. Forge public-private partnerships for inclusion to co-finance social infrastructure. This includes education, health and digital access.

Knowledge and capacity building: joint research platforms are required to enable more collaborative work on climate adaptation, food security and inclusive digitalisation. South-south and triangular co-operation should be increased to share experiences and best practices among developing nations with support from multilateral institutions. Managed labour mobility schemes through skills partnerships will benefit both sending and receiving countries.

Governance and multilateral reform: reforming global institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization is essential to give developing economies stronger voices in these institutions.

What should African countries be doing?

China, India and other leading eastern countries have proven themselves formidable rivals to the west – economically, militarily and in global governance. Africa occupies a central position. It has the opportunity to become a key player in shaping the future of the global economy.

A number of recommendations should serve as priority areas – particularly over the next decade.

The first would include building a digital backbone, and enhancing technology and AI capabilities. These have become core drivers of competitiveness. Without infrastructure and skills, countries are relegated to raw-material suppliers.

Countries need:

• a national broadband and data-centre strategy (public-private), and incentives to attract the building of regional data centres

• more training in science, technology, engineering, maths and artificial intelligence. Examples include fast-track bootcamps, ICT in secondary schools and support for local AI startups.

Secondly, governments should continue to secure investment in digital infrastructure, such as fibre optics, 5G networks and data centres. They could potentially use China’s Digital Silk Road, which promotes affordable tech alternatives.

Secondly, South Africa and other African countries need to prioritise economic inclusion and sustainable development to fast-track broad-based inclusive economic development. This should be the core driver of their development strategy.

Thirdly, African governments must strategically navigate geopolitical shifts and alliances. They are key spheres of influence in the digital competition between the US and China, and ought to use this position to their benefit. To do this, Africna governments should:

• use Brics+ membership in a co-ordinated way to advance national interests

• foster south-south co-operation by strengthening trade, technological transfer and financial alliances with other developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. More emphasis should be placed on initiatives like the Forum on China-Africa Co-operation.

• enhance trade diplomacy and diversify markets to be able to sell more goods and services in Asian, European and intra-African markets

• maximise external investment by securing investments, infrastructure and digital partnerships from both the US and China. This will position African countries to benefit from the global technology competition.

Arno J. van Niekerk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trade is shaping new global power relations: what this means for Africa – https://theconversation.com/trade-is-shaping-new-global-power-relations-what-this-means-for-africa-266940

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Olivier Walther, Associate Professor in Geography, University of Florida

A decade ago countries in West Africa set up a unique trade monitoring mechanism. Its purpose was to track intra-regional trade in agricultural products and livestock in the region. But the system was closed down in 2022 due to a lack of funding by regional organisations.

The mechanism provided West African countries with data from more than 320 markets and along 10 corridors, enabling the tracking of not only trade patterns but livestock and zoonotic diseases.

The lack of up-to-date trade data has a number of knock-on effects. Detailed intra-trade data are essential to help assess the impact of external shocks that can significantly affect food security and economic development. These include political crises, extreme weather events, currency devaluation, or epidemics.

Good data is also essential for mapping trade networks. In turn, this can strengthen market information systems and disease surveillance efforts. These rely heavily on the movement of goods, people, livestock and capital across the region.

Using data collected by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel from 2013 to 2017, researchers show the importance of considering the social structure of trade networks, their geography and temporal changes.

The social structure of trade networks could better inform market information systems and disease surveillance, both of which rely heavily on the movement of goods, people, livestock and capital across the region

They conclude that regional bodies should support the resumption of trade data collection. They should also foster dialogue with national statistical offices and other national institutions that have experience in collecting data on informal regional food trade to work towards a coherent regional statistical approach.

A unique database on the regional economy

In West Africa, agricultural goods and livestock trade operates in well-established corridors. Animals, for example, flow from the Sahel to the major urban centres of the Atlantic Coast and of the Gulf of Guinea.

Our analysis of the trade data suggests that border markets play a key role in livestock trade and that a large proportion of movements are trans-boundary.

This high level of mobility facilitates the spread of livestock and zoonotic diseases. These include Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Foot and Mouth disease, and Peste des petits ruminants. At the end of September 2025, for example, a new outbreak of Rift Valley fever was observed in Mauritania and Senegal. The two West African countries have very close ties when it comes to animal movements.

The transnational nature of trade in West Africa led to the creation of a regional database by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel in 2013. Data collected on more than 320 markets and along 10 corridors, from Guinea and Senegal in the west to Nigeria in the east, were unique on the African continent.

The data was particularly well suited for analysis of locally-produced food stuff and livestock at the regional level. This is because it incorporated both formal and informal trade. Both are prevalent throughout the region. Our recent work estimates informal activities could reach up to 85% of total trade, representing US$10 billion. This is six times higher than portrayed in official statistics

Filling the statistical gap

The experience of recent years and the transnational nature of trade flows suggest one key step. That being regional institutions, rather than bilateral donors, take over data collection.

Initially, the data were collected within the framework of the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel’s Regional Support Program of Market Access. This was developed to increase the volume and value of trade within the Economic Community of West African States and the West African Economic and Monetary Union .

From 2017 to 2019, the United States Agency for International Development provided funding to establish the database as part of its West Africa/Regional Agriculture Office. The data was eventually integrated to the ECOWAS Informal Cross Border Trade database. This was developed to monitor informal cross-border trade in the region in 2019.

The United States Agency for International Development programme ended in 2019. After this, data collection was transferred to the Family Farming, Regional Markets and Cross-Border Trade Corridors in the Sahel project. Launched in 2020, its aim was to develop a sustainable and self-financed means of collecting reliable data on agricultural and food trade in West Africa.

Funding for these activities was provided by the International Fund for Agricultural Development. It was locally managed by the West African Association for Cross-Border Trade in Agro-forestry-pastoral and Fisheries Products, based in Togo.

This initiative, covering 17 countries unfortunately came to an end in 2022 (agricultural products) and 2024 (livestock).

The cessation of this funding has had dire effects. It profoundly affected researchers’ ability to measure the impact of structural and political changes affecting the region. For example, it is still impossible to measure the extent to which the closure of certain borders following successive coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in recent years has affected the trade networks linking the Sahel to the Gulf of Guinea.

Better data to monitor trade and animal diseases

Re-establishing a permanent data collection system by supporting local associations such as the West African Association for Cross-Border Trade in Agro-forestry-pastoral and Fisheries Products is one of the essential steps for policymakers wishing to strengthen the region’s resilience.

The World Animal Health Organisation’s International Animal Health Code has suggested centralising livestock mobility data. This could be a starting point. It is the most efficient way to prevent and respond to transnational disease spread through trade.

Accurate, timely and centralised data collection could help identify possible hotspots and reconstruct transmission patterns. It could also develop control measures and alert systems to protect unaffected areas.

Beyond disease control, resuming the collection of data on intra-regional trade would also contribute to design policies that support the adaptation of regional economy to new climate conditions and political unrest. Better trade data on West Africa’s informal sector could unlock climate adaptation finance by highlighting its real value.

For instance, in one of our latest reports, we estimate that regional livestock exports for Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are likely to be close to USD 1 billion when counting unrecorded trade, against USD 80 million in official statistics.

The research for this article was carried out in conjunction with Mr. Brahima Cissé who coordinates the Regional Markets program at the Economic Community of West African States in Togo; Dr. Alban Masaparisi, an economist specialising in food systems transformation and agricultural policy at the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club, France and Mr. Koffi Zougbede, an economist working on food systems at the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club, France.__

Olivier Walther receives funding from the OECD.

Andrea Apolloni and Lacey Harris-Coble do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. West Africa’s trade monitoring system has collapsed – why this is dangerous for food security – https://theconversation.com/west-africas-trade-monitoring-system-has-collapsed-why-this-is-dangerous-for-food-security-266405

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Alan Hirsch, Senior Research Fellow New South Institute, Emeritus Professor at The Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape Town

It remains too difficult for Africans to travel between African countries. Africa-wide reforms have failed. The keynote continental agreement, the African Union’s Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, adopted in 2018, still has only four country ratifications from 55 members.

A new report of the African Union bemoans the low (though slightly improved) level of human integration in Africa. It describes the main challenges as legal fragmentation, weak institutional frameworks, security concerns, and limited mutual recognition of documents and qualifications.

Nevertheless, some consolation can be drawn from the fact that African migration governance systems have been moving in the right direction.

We are migration researchers and, as we show in our recent report, there has been some progress. This is evident in improving scores in the annual African Visa Openness Index, which is published by the African Development Bank.

The visa openness index shows that for 28% of country‑to-country travel scenarios within Africa, African citizens do not need a visa to cross the border. This is an improvement from 20% in 2016.

But the pace of change is slow. Given this, and the fact that progress has been driven at bilateral and regional levels, is there still a role for continental initiatives?

Based on our research over the last decade, we argue that incremental reforms at all levels – unilateral, bilateral, regional and continental – can combine to move Africa forward towards free regular movement.

We recognise that the implementation of the African Union Protocol on Free Movement of Persons is still some way off. But there are opportunities to support its aims and intentions through incremental initiatives and reforms. This could include pilot programmes run under the auspices of the African Union and regional bodies that provide for categories of people to travel freely. These categories could include, for example, traders at borders or those with professional skills.

What’s standing in the way

There are many reasons a continental process to reform and align migration governance shouldn’t work.

Firstly, the African Union has an extraordinary number of members (55). The European Union has 27. The large number of countries makes any wholesale continental institutional intervention difficult.

Secondly, there are huge levels of inequality both within and between African countries. The richest country in Africa has an income per person on average – taking costs into account – around 53 times higher than the poorest. Large income differences between countries, sometimes coinciding with better judicial systems and social services, make it likely that, whatever the reality, vulnerable residents in the richer country are likely to fear an uncontrolled influx.

Thirdly, the level of institutional development varies hugely between countries. Population registration is very weak in many African countries. Unicef estimated that in 2022, more than half of the unregistered children in the world were African. The Lancet medical journal estimated that in 2021 only one in three deaths in Africa were registered. Systems for issuing identification documents and passports are imperfect. Confidence in other countries keeping good records of citizens and monitoring criminal and terrorist activity are key ingredients of a good migration partnership.

But Africans cannot afford to allow these and other obstacles to diminish the effort towards a fully integrated continent.

In a world of large, competing power blocs, Africa’s fragmentation puts it at a huge disadvantage. In any case, compared with much of the rest of the world, at least Africa is moving in the right direction. It is mostly opening borders, rather than closing them.

The efforts so far

African initiatives to facilitate easier border crossings have a long history.

In 1991, the Abuja Treaty committed Organisation of African Union member states to

establish a common market and gradually remove obstacles to the free movement of persons, goods, services, and capital and the right of residence and establishment.

The African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights guarantees the right to free movement of persons. The Migration Policy Framework for Africa and Plan of Action (2018–2030) is a detailed plan for implementing the Free Movement of Persons Protocol.

The 2018 protocol itself explained why freer movement would be beneficial for Africa’s social and economic development. It set up a programme of three phases, from visa-free visits to (eventually) rights to settle, work and start a business.

We noted some evidence that citizens of African countries are often more open to freer movement than their governments are.

Unlike the Free Movement of Persons Protocol, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been widely ratified and is in the process of implementation. It provides for specific categories of travellers to be allowed free movement in the course of service delivery.

The free movement protocol is, in practice, driven by a few busy staffers in the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa, with some kind external assistance. The AfCFTA is driven by a relatively large, dedicated secretariat with wide support within and beyond Africa.

A more practical way forward

One of the conclusions we have drawn from our research is that a varied approach might work better.

For example, migration expert Amanda Bisong has pointed out that the AfCFTA services protocol makes provision for the visa-free movement of certain categories of professional and business persons. If implemented, this would be a significant continental step towards broader reforms.

We noted previously that such “neo-liberal” or “elitist” reforms could pave the way to broader multilateral reforms, as was the case in South America. The term “neo-liberal migration reform” was coined in South America to refer to visa-free travel for elites, but not for lower-skilled people.

Secondly, informal cross-border traders could be included into the ambit of formality within a specific agreement. Or as an extension of the services protocol of the free trade agreement.

Thirdly, such initiatives could be initiated as pilot programmes under the auspices of the AU and some regional blocs. Their purpose would be to support the free trade agreement services protocol commitment and to formalise informal traders.

Such pilot programmes could include:

• the implementation of regional agreements on mutual recognition of skills

• special economic zones with freer movement provisions, or

• harmonised visa policies for specific categories of persons.

If successful, these models could be scaled up to encourage broader adoption of the AU Free Movement of Persons Protocol.

Countries with weaker institutional capacities should not be left behind in integrating mobility into the implementation of the free trade agreement. Capacity-building programmes, including financial and technical assistance, should be provided to states that struggle with border management, migration governance or digital infrastructure.

We also noted that continental and regional forums to exchange views and experiences in migration policy and practice are important. We recommend more frequent and more focused forums to monitor the implementation of migration reform policies and discuss the systematic deepening of reforms.

Alan Hirsch is a Senior Research fellow at the New South Institute which funded the research on which this article is based.

Victor Amadi is an Affiliate Researcher at the New South Institute, which funded the research on which this article is based.

– ref. Travel between African countries is still hard: fresh ideas to get movement flowing – https://theconversation.com/travel-between-african-countries-is-still-hard-fresh-ideas-to-get-movement-flowing-266837

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By James Boafo, Lecturer in Sustainability and Fellow of Indo Pacific Research Centre, Murdoch University

Critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, rare earth elements, and platinum group metals are essential for modern technologies. They are key to industries ranging from electronics and telecommunications to renewable energy, defence, and aerospace systems.

The global demand for these minerals has been growing, as has the competition for them.

The supply and production of these minerals is largely concentrated in the global South. Most of the world’s cobalt is produced in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It produces almost three-quarters of the global cobalt output. Australia produces nearly half of the world’s lithium. Chile accounts for another quarter of global lithium production, with China following at 18%.

China dominates the supply chain through massive investments in mining operations, particularly in Africa. It is responsible for refining 90% of rare earth elements and graphite, and 60-70% of lithium and cobalt. The United States and European Union — long-term trading partners with African nations — have also adopted policies to secure access to Africa’s resources.

The question is what African countries are doing to take advantage of this demand for these critical minerals, especially to drive their own development.

As development researchers we address this question in a special publication on the rising significance of critical minerals in Africa by the Indian Council of World Affairs. In another publication, we look at how emerging resource diplomacy may reinforce Africa’s position in the global economy as a mere source of raw materials.

We recommend that African countries determine for themselves how to benefit from this global competition. This includes developing national strategies that emphasise local value addition and benefits. Also, national strategies should begin positioning African countries to gain from their resources beyond value addition.

The competition for Africa’s critical minerals underscores the urgency of governance reforms and regional cooperation to transform mineral wealth into sustainable prosperity, avoiding another “resource curse.”

The emerging ‘New World Order’

A Chinese-led ‘New World Order’ is emerging to counter the US-led Western influence. Eastern and global South countries demonstrate this shift through groupings like BRICS and South-South cooperation in technology and development. China has strengthened its influence in the global South through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative.

Launched in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative is an ambitious infrastructure project that connects continents by land and sea. Since then, over 200 agreements have been signed with over 150 countries and 30 international organisations. The initiative has expanded China’s access to resources. This is often in exchange for infrastructure development that links mining regions to ports.

In Africa, China has invested heavily in mining and infrastructure. Its firms have spent about US$4.5 billion in lithium projects in Zimbabwe, the DRC, Mali, and Namibia. China’s strategic focus includes resource-rich countries such as the DRC, Zimbabwe, Zambia, South Africa and Ghana.

China recently marked the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II with a military parade. The parade projected China’s military strength with President Xi warning that China is “unstoppable.”

China is emboldened by its influence and access to critical minerals. This has strengthened its ability to acquire military hardware and other advanced technologies.

Competition for Africa’s critical minerals

Africa holds about 30% of the world’s critical mineral deposits, making it central to geopolitical contest. The US and EU have sought agreements to secure supplies and reduce reliance on China.

The EU has strategic partnerships on minerals with the DRC, Rwanda, Namibia and Zambia. China has bilateral agreements with eleven African countries in the mining sector. The US also has a trilateral agreement with the DRC and Zambia. Its purpose is to support an integrated value chain for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. It also recently signed a ‘Minerals for Peace’ deal with the DRC and Rwanda to help end decades of conflict in eastern Congo.

Although African countries need support to turn their resources into prosperity, our research found that these partnerships risk reinforcing Africa’s marginal position in the global value chain. They often reproduce conditions reminiscent of colonialism: dependency, resource extraction, and power imbalances.

The way forward

Our research argues that the struggle between the US-led and Chinese-led world orders will hinge on a few things. One is control over emerging technologies. These include renewable energy, defence, aerospace, and AI — all of which depend on critical minerals. Expanded access to, and control of, these minerals and their supply chains will be a key determinant of global power.

Competition between the US and China for critical minerals will intensify. Yet it is crucial that African countries remain neutral. They must engage only in meaningful, mutually beneficial partnerships that genuinely advance their countries and its economies.

African countries must explicitly define their priorities in the extractives sector. Without clear strategies, external powers will continue to dictate Africa’s future. The continent will be locked into dependency rather than enabling it to capture real value from its mineral wealth.

Finally, rather than just competing for Africa’s critical minerals, China, the US, and the EU should equitably engage with African countries in the extractives sector to ensure just development across the continent.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. China and the US are in a race for critical minerals. African countries need to make the rules – https://theconversation.com/china-and-the-us-are-in-a-race-for-critical-minerals-african-countries-need-to-make-the-rules-265318

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Rashid Seedat, Executive Director, Gauteng City-Region Observatory

The “Coloured” community in Gauteng, South Africa’s economic heartland, continues to face barriers to full economic and social inclusion. Despite progress in post-apartheid South Africa, this historically oppressed community continues to experience significant socio-economic challenges.

The term “Coloured” is initially placed in quotation marks to acknowledge its contested nature. Historically, the formation of Coloured identity in South Africa emerged from a complex colonial encounter involving Dutch and British settlers, slaves from south and east Asia and east Africa, and the indigenous Khoi and San peoples. This produced a distinct, mixed group that did not neatly fit into colonial racial categories. During apartheid, Coloured people were legally defined by the 1950 Population Registration Act as those who were neither white nor Black African.

Today, it remains an official racial classification in South Africa. It is also used in everyday discourse. But it is not a universally accepted label.

Quotation marks signal critical distance and sensitivity to the complex debates surrounding the term.

The Coloured population is concentrated mainly in the Western Cape (42.1%) and the Northern Cape (41.6%). There are smaller proportions in the Eastern Cape (7.6%), Gauteng (2.9%), Free-State (2.6%), North-West (1.6%), KwaZulu-Natal (1.5%), Mpumalanga (0.6%) and Limpopo (0.3%).

Current, albeit limited, research on the Coloured community is usually focused on the Western Cape province. This means that there is no new substantial scholarship providing a deeper and more nuanced understanding of this community in Gauteng.

In a bid to fill this gap, the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) initiated a research project that delves into the issues in greater detail. This follows findings from a GCRO Quality of Life Survey released in 2024 which revealed concerning data on the Coloured community in Gauteng. This included the fact that a larger proportion of Coloured people within Gauteng felt unsafe, discouraged, apathetic and dissatisfied compared to the provincial average.

The concerns highlighted in the survey are not separate from questions of Coloured identity. There is a link between an enduring perception of marginalisation within Coloured communities and real material struggles.

Biggest concerns

Safety: The survey indicated that safety remains a concern for the Coloured community in Gauteng. When asked about the main problems in their community, 2.3% indicated gangs as a problem. This compared with 0.2% of the general Gauteng population.

Additionally, 61% of Coloured people believed that the crime situation had worsened in their neighbourhoods over the past year. The provincial average was 48%.

South Africa is often regarded as “the protest capital of the world”. Over 680 protests were recorded in the country from August 2024 to August 2025, an average of nearly two a day. In September 2025, Johannesburg’s majority-Coloured suburbs, Westbury, Coronationville, Newclare and Claremont, erupted in violent protests following prolonged water shortages. These protests reflected broader frustrations over basic service delivery failures.

When Coloured respondents were asked about reasons for protests in the neighbourhood in the survey, 17% indicated that it was a result of crime and safety issues, compared to the provincial average of 4%.

Joblessness and financial stresses: The survey highlighted that 5% of Coloured residents are discouraged work seekers. This is double the average in Gauteng. A total of 26% of Coloured people felt that saving money was impossible, compared to 17% of the general population.

The highest proportion of households experiencing severe food insecurity in Gauteng belong to the Coloured (12%) and Black African (13%) population groups.

Food insecurity refers to individuals who do not have access to sufficient food to lead an active, healthy life. The GCRO developed a food security index based on four indicators: whether households could afford enough groceries, whether there was a place nearby to buy food, and whether adults or children had skipped a meal due to financial constraints.

Political apathy: Among Coloured people who stated that they intended not to vote or were unsure if they would vote, 40% indicated that they do not like politics, broken promises or believed that voting is a waste of time. This is nearly double the provincial average of 26%.

The Coloured community had the highest proportion of people who were dissatisfied with their local municipalities. This dissatisfaction extended to provincial and national government:

• 72% of Coloured people expressed dissatisfaction with provincial government, compared to 63% across Gauteng, and

• 78% were dissatisfied with the national government, compared to 67% for the province.

Over a quarter of Coloured people believed that politics was a waste of time (26%) and that South Africa was a failed state (29%). This was much higher than the provincial average.

The survey also shed light on the ongoing racial tensions within Gauteng. Eighteen percent of Coloured residents reported experiencing racial discrimination either always or often. This compares with 13% of the general population.

Unpacking Coloured identity

A range of South African scholars and authors are engaged in debates on the Coloured identity. In developing our own understanding of Coloured identity, we draw on a three-part framework for thinking about its formation developed by professor of anthropology Zimitri Erasmus and set out in the introduction of the book Coloured by history, shaped by place: New perspectives on Coloured identity in Cape Town.

First, Coloured identity cannot be reduced to a “race mixture”. It is a cultural formation shaped by the conditions of appropriation and dispossession under slavery, colonialism and apartheid.

Second, Coloured identity was developed through creolisation, the blending of subaltern and ruling cultures, and is continually, and creatively, remade by Coloured people across time and space in ways that help them make sense of their lives.

Third, the apartheid racial hierarchy placed Coloured between Black African and White. This gave rise to the common refrain, “not black enough to be Black and not white enough to be White”. This position is twofold. On the one hand researchers must recognise the intra-Black racism of Coloured people under apartheid. On the other hand, they need to recognise the community’s enduring sense of marginalisation.

Next steps

The GRCO‘s project, “The Coloured community in post-apartheid Gauteng” aims to understand and explore dimensions of the Coloured experience in Gauteng.

The research initiative includes these areas of focus: a political and historical overview; a demographic and geographic profile; an examination of social and economic conditions; subjective well-being; political attitudes; and the role of religion.

Shamsunisaa Miles-Timotheus and Shannon Whitaker, junior researchers at the GCRO, are co-authors of this article.

Rashid Seedat receives funding from Gauteng Provincial Government for the Gauteng City-Region Observatory. He is affiliated with the Ahmed Kathrada Foundation as a member of the Board of Trustees.

– ref. Gauteng’s ‘Coloured’ community feels unsafe: who they are and why they’re discouraged – https://theconversation.com/gautengs-coloured-community-feels-unsafe-who-they-are-and-why-theyre-discouraged-264716

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Matthew Germishuizen, Postdoctoral research fellow, Mammal Research Institute Whale Unit, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria

Most people are lucky to simply get a glimpse of some fragment of a whale. A subtle puff of mist over the horizon, the curve of a dark smooth back sliding beneath the surface, or for the fortunate, the flash of a tail or the explosive splash of 40 tons of flesh pounding the surface of the water when they breach. The immense satisfaction experienced during these brief appearances is a testimony to the whales’ elusiveness, and the immense difficulty of studying them.

For scientists, the challenge is even greater: whales spend most of their lives far offshore, hidden beneath the waves, or even well within the ice pack in some of the most remote and inhospitable oceans on Earth.

This difficulty has driven researchers to creative extremes – like using crossbows to gather skin samples, flying helicopters to count them, and sticking cameras with suction cups on their backs. I faced the challenge myself during my doctoral research at the University of Pretoria, which set out to unravel how southern right whales are responding to the combined pressures of climate change and shifting ocean ecosystems.

Southern rights are the species that draws thousands of visitors to Hermanus, a town on South Africa’s southern Cape coast, each spring when they reach peak numbers at their calving grounds. They generally start arriving here in June after feeding for a couple of years in the Antarctic, and generally all leave by November back into the Southern Ocean.

Southern right whales are one of the three species of right whales worldwide. All belong to the baleen whale group – the filter-feeding giants that include the blue, humpback and fin whales. Reaching up to 17 metres in length, they are among the larger whale species. The southern right is the only right whale found in the southern hemisphere, with populations off South America, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

My research shows that the South African population of southern right whales is being squeezed by climate change in the Southern Ocean. Their reproductive slowdown is a clear biological signal of environmental disruption: fewer calves in Hermanus most likely means there is less food under the ice thousands of kilometres away.

This has two important implications. First, it highlights the vulnerability of whale populations. These animals face an uncertain future in a warming ocean. Second, it demonstrates the remarkable role whales can play as sentinels. By monitoring their health and behaviour, we gain insight into vast, remote ecosystems that are otherwise costly and difficult to study.

Why southern right whales matter

Southern right whales were named by whalers who considered them the “right” whales to hunt: slow, predictable, and buoyant when killed. Those same traits almost drove them to extinction. Today, with international protection, many populations are recovering. But recovery is no guarantee of security. The very qualities that made them easy targets now make them excellent sentinels of environmental change.

These whales are what biologists call capital breeders. Mothers must accumulate enormous energy reserves during their foraging season in the Southern Ocean, then draw down on these stores through pregnancy, birth and nursing. If food is scarce, reproduction falters. This tight link between feeding and breeding makes them a living barometer of ocean health.

What I set out to investigate

For decades, South Africa has been at the forefront of southern right whale research. Since 1969, annual aerial surveys along the Cape coast have tracked mothers and calves, building one of the world’s most detailed datasets on any whale species.

In recent years, however, worrying trends have emerged. After 2009, calving intervals, the time between births, lengthened dramatically. Instead of a calf every three years, many mothers were only giving birth every four or five years. Female body condition declined, and stable isotope studies, which analyse molecules in the skin to indicate what whales have been feeding on, suggested whales were feeding further north than before. This indicates that mothers are potentially taking longer to meet the energy requirements of reproduction.

These red flags raised an urgent question: was climate change disrupting the whales’ food supply in their distant Southern Ocean feeding grounds?

Peering into the whales’ world

To answer this, I combined multiple approaches. I analysed 40 years of environmental data: sea ice cover, chlorophyll (a measure of ocean productivity), and historical whaling records. I deployed satellite tags on living whales to follow their migrations offshore. And I worked with international colleagues to use instruments attached directly to whales, tags that measure conductivity, temperature and depth, to understand the physical and biological features of their foraging habitats.

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Together, these methods painted a clear picture. The traditional high-latitude feeding grounds, once rich in one of their preferred prey, Antarctic krill, have experienced dramatic environmental shifts driven by changes in the Earth’s climate. Sea ice, critical for krill survival and reproduction, has declined by 15%-30% in key regions. The marginal ice zone, once a reliable nursery for krill, has retreated southward. In parallel, whale mothers showed signs of poorer body condition, consistent with struggling to find sufficient food.

At mid-latitudes, meanwhile, whales were often found foraging near ocean fronts, dynamic boundaries where warm and cold waters meet, concentrating nutrients and prey. This suggests that when their polar larder fails, whales are forced to adapt by exploiting less predictable feeding zones further north.

Why it matters to all of us

Southern right whales are more than just a tourist attraction. They are indicators of the health of the Southern Ocean, a region that regulates Earth’s climate by absorbing heat and carbon dioxide. Changes in this system ripple far beyond Antarctica, shaping weather, fisheries, and biodiversity across the globe.

When fewer whale calves appear along South Africa’s coast, it is not only a local conservation concern. It is a message carried on the backs of these giants: our oceans are changing faster than they can adapt.

As we celebrate their return each spring, we should also reflect on the bigger story they tell. Protecting whales, and the oceans they depend on, is inseparable from protecting our own future.

Matthew Germishuizen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Southern right whales are having fewer calves: what this says about ocean health – https://theconversation.com/southern-right-whales-are-having-fewer-calves-what-this-says-about-ocean-health-266375

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Ismaila Sanusi, Postdoctoral Researcher, School of Computing, Faculty of Science, Forestry and Technology, University of Eastern Finland

Digital literacy is the ability to use digital tools and technologies effectively, safely and responsibly. This includes the use of smartphones and devices, navigating the internet and exploring coding basics.

In an era where digital literacy is more important than ever, it’s essential to understand how young children perceive computing concepts.

As a computer science education researcher, I led a team of researchers to study young children’s ideas about computing in an African setting. Our recent study sheds light on how children aged five to eight in Nigeria think about computing, including computers, the internet, coding and artificial intelligence (AI).

While most children were familiar with computers and had some idea of the internet, coding and AI were largely unfamiliar or misunderstood. The children’s understanding was shaped by what they observed at home, school and through the media.

This kind of research matters because early digital literacy prepares children for future learning and careers. In African countries, studies like this highlight the urgent need to bridge the digital divide – the wide variation in access and exposure to technology. Without early and inclusive computing education, many children risk being left behind in a world where digital skills are essential. They are crucial not just for the jobs of tomorrow, but for full participation in society.

The study approach

The study took place in two socio-economically distinct communities in Ibadan, Nigeria. It offers valuable insights into how concepts and ideas are formed in relation to understanding technology.

This research chose a small group of children for an in-depth study, rather than a huge sample. Using a “draw-and-talk” method, the researchers asked 12 children to draw what they believed computers, the internet, code and AI looked like.

Artificial intelligence is when machines act smart, like answering questions or recognising faces. Coding is writing instructions that tell computers what to do. The internet is a global network that lets people connect, share and learn online.

These drawings were followed by interviews to explore the children’s thoughts and experiences. This method revealed not only what the children knew but how they formed their ideas.

What children know and don’t know about computing

The study found that most children were familiar with computers, often describing them as resembling televisions or typewriters. This comparison highlights how children relate new concepts to familiar objects in their environment. But their understanding was largely limited to what computers looked like. They had little awareness of internal components or functions beyond “pressing” keys.

When it came to the internet, children’s conceptions were more abstract. Many associated the internet with actions like watching videos or sending messages. This was often based on observing their parents using smartphones. Few could say what the internet actually was or how it worked. This suggests that children’s understanding is shaped more by observed behaviours than formal instruction.

Coding and AI were even less understood. Most of the children had never heard of coding. Those who had offered vague or incorrect definitions, such as associating “code” with television programmes or numbers. Similarly, AI was a foreign concept to nearly all participants. Only two children offered rudimentary explanations based on media exposure, such as robots or voice assistants like Google.

Children’s misconceptions about computers, coding and AI reflect limited exposure and are consistent across different cultural contexts in Nigeria and outside Nigeria. They highlight the need for hands-on programming education and tailored learning models.

This study was based on a prior study conducted in Finland, and the results also have similarities with other studies.

The role of language and environment

A key finding of the study is the influence of socio-economic status and language on children’s understanding. Children from the higher-income community generally had more exposure to digital devices and could express slightly more informed views, especially about the internet.

In contrast, children from the lower-income community had limited access. They struggled to express their ideas, particularly when computing terms lacked equivalents in their native language, Yoruba.

This language barrier underscores a broader challenge in computing education in Africa. There are few culturally and linguistically appropriate teaching materials. Without localised terminology or relatable examples, children may struggle to grasp abstract computing concepts.

Implications for education and policy

The study’s findings have implications for educators, curriculum developers and policymakers. First, they highlight the need to introduce computing concepts like coding and AI at earlier stages of education.

While many African countries, including Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa, have begun integrating computing into school curricula, the focus remains on basic computer literacy. There’s little emphasis on programming or emerging technologies.

Second, the research emphasises the importance of informal learning environments. Children’s conceptions were largely shaped by interactions at home and in their communities. It seems parents, guardians and media play a big role in early digital education.

Initiatives like after-school coding clubs, community tech hubs and parent-focused digital literacy programmes could help bridge the gap.

Finally, the study calls for a more inclusive and equitable approach to computing education. Children from lower socio-economic backgrounds must be given equal opportunities to use technology. This includes not only access to devices but also exposure to meaningful learning experiences that foster curiosity and understanding.

Building a digitally inclusive future

As the digital divide continues to shape educational outcomes globally, studies like this one provide a roadmap for more inclusive computing education. Educators and policymakers can design interventions that are developmentally appropriate, culturally relevant and socially equitable.

The future of computing in Africa depends not just on infrastructure and policy but on nurturing the next generation’s curiosity and creativity. And that journey begins with listening to how children see the digital world around them.

Ismaila Sanusi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What do Nigerian children think about computers? Our study found out – https://theconversation.com/what-do-nigerian-children-think-about-computers-our-study-found-out-260602

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Namhla Thando Matshanda, Associate Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of Pretoria

The formal launch of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in September 2025 made news across the world. There was pomp and ceremony as Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam was officially inaugurated after 14 years and US$5 billion worth of project work.

The project’s completion fulfils a national dream long in the making. It was formally initiated by the late Meles Zenawi, who served as president of Ethiopia from 1991 to 1995 and as prime minister from 1995 until his death in 2012. But the idea of a dam on the Ethiopian Nile dates back even further. As early as the 1950s, Emperor Haile Selassie recognised the potential of a dam for Ethiopia’s developmental needs.

This vision has occupied the Ethiopian national imagination since then. That is why Ethiopians celebrated the launch as a significant national achievement. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hailed the dam as a “shared opportunity” for the region, which stands to gain from surplus electricity exports. The dam’s opening was also celebrated with street processions across the country.

The completion of the dam is a major achievement. As a hydropower source, it is expected to deliver practical benefits such as electricity supply to a large number of Ethiopians. More than that, the dam is also being used to galvanise national pride and unity.

As a scholar of African politics with an interest in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, my work has focused on the challenges of constructing national unity and inclusion in Ethiopia.

It is not surprising that the government has seized this moment. National pride and unity have been low in Ethiopia in recent years.

The quest for national cohesion has occupied Ethiopian state builders stretching back from the imperial state up until the present period. Previous attempts proved to be largely symbolic, however, with limited transformative power.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam risks falling into the same pattern. Its inauguration comes in the aftermath of a largely unresolved conflict in Tigray, and amid intense political fragmentation and ongoing civil wars in Ethiopia. When the war with Tigray ended, others erupted in different parts of the country, most notably in the Amhara and Oromo regions.

Elusive national unity

Ethiopia is a diverse country of over 120 million people. It comprises multiple ethnic, linguistic and religious groups.

Over 80 languages are spoken, with Amharic as the lingua franca. The largest ethnic groups correspond with the most widely spoken languages: Oromiffa, Amharic, Tigrinya and Somali.

Since the late 19th century, various leaders have attempted to construct a nation alongside the state. A state comes into being with the determination of borders and international recognition. Crafting a nation is different. It is the process of establishing a sense of common identity and purpose among the inhabitants of a state. The process of nation-making has been violently contested and fraught in Ethiopian political history.

The results of this contested history can show up in the most unlikely places. For instance, the grand opening of the dam was timed to fall in the month of Meskerem (September). It came a few days before the Ethiopian new year – Enkutatash – which is celebrated on 11 September. This holiday is a major event in the Ethiopian calendar and is usually marked by national celebrations.

However, the holiday is rooted in Ethiopian Orthodox traditions. It carries huge symbolism for at least one particular group – Ethiopia’s Orthodox Christians, who are just over 43% of the population. But others could have felt excluded by this choice.

This has not dissuaded those in power, throughout history, from using such symbolic events and occasions to foster a sense of national unity.

Symbolic nationalism

The imperial regime of Haile Selassie made concerted efforts to unite the nation following the Italian occupation of 1935. At this time, state sovereignty was compromised, with some sections of the country still under foreign occupation. The country was divided between those that resisted the occupation and those who collaborated with the Italians.

To build legitimacy and unity, the emperor turned to the heroic efforts of the patriotic resistance against the Italian occupation as a source of national pride. He also engaged in a policy of state modernisation. One of the key developments from this period was the establishment of Ethiopian Airlines in 1945.

The airline has been highly successful – and profitable. It has contributed to strengthening the Ethiopian brand. But it has not in any visible measure delivered long-term national unity and prevented political violence in Ethiopia.

The post-1991 government also made use of symbols and events to foster national unity. Amid growing concerns about where the ruling coalition was taking the country, in the lead up to the year 2007 (2000 according to the Ethiopian calendar), the government organised millennium celebrations. These captured the nation’s imagination and provided temporary respite from political tensions. Indeed, the initial name of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was the Millennium Dam.

What these symbolic attempts managed to achieve is short-lived national pride. They also drew attention away from the structural challenges facing the country.

What is needed to achieve long-term national unity

Ethiopia must come to terms with the deep-seated issues of inequality, historical and contemporary grievances of exclusion and marginalisation. These are the key drivers of recurring cycles of political violence. The country needs to have honest conversations, in non-partisan platforms.

The National Dialogue that is currently underway is a good place to start. The process was launched in 2022 to address key national questions thrown up in part by the disastrous Tigray war. The dialogue seeks to create conducive conditions for national consensus on the root causes of divisions in the country.

National dialogues are useful tools that have been used in diverse national contexts for the purpose of conflict transformation and addressing internal conflicts. These have potential to yield positive results if they are inclusive and have clear implementation plans.

There are fears, however, that the dialogue might be undermined by the Ethiopian government, especially in light of elections in 2026. The government might use the national dialogue to advance its position and present itself in a positive light in relation to its political opponents.

If the National Dialogue fails to achieve its intended objectives, then it will be left to the different communities in Ethiopia to organise their own non-partisan platforms where they can have these urgent national conversations. Here, they would need to find consensus on key areas of national concern and collectively seek solutions. In so doing, Ethiopians would have taken significant steps towards nation building.

Namhla Thando Matshanda receives funding from the National Research Foundation.

– ref. Ethiopia has struggled to build national unity: can its big new dam deliver it? – https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-has-struggled-to-build-national-unity-can-its-big-new-dam-deliver-it-265630

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Riona Indhur, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Durban University of Technology

Microplastics are the crumbs of our plastic world, tiny pieces that come from bigger items breaking apart or from products like synthetic clothing and packaging. They’re now everywhere. Scientists estimate there are about 51 trillion of these particles floating in the world’s surface waters, and low levels have even been found in South African tap water.

That’s worrying because these particles can carry chemicals and bad bacteria, get eaten by fish and other wildlife, and may end up in our bodies.

We’re water scientists who are looking for ways to solve this problem. In a recent study, we tested a practical fix: two “magnetic cleaning powders” that can attach onto microplastics in water; the combined clumps can then be pulled out using a magnet. These materials are called magnetic nanocomposites (think: very fine powders with special surfaces).

The idea is simple: mix a small dose of powder into the water, let it attract and attach to microplastics, and then use a strong magnet to remove the powder-plastic clusters, leaving cleaner water behind.

Around the world, researchers have tried many different methods to capture microplastics, but our study is among the first to show that magnetic nanocomposites can work effectively not only under laboratory conditions but also in real-world samples, including municipal wastewater and drinking water.

This is the first study to use these specific nanomaterials for microplastic removal, proving both their high efficiency and their practical potential. Most existing filters struggle to catch the smallest plastics, the ones most harmful to health and the environment. The next step is to test these powders on a larger scale and develop simple, affordable systems that households and water treatment plants can use.

How well do the powders work?

In our research we found that the powders were able to remove up to 96% of small polyethylene and 92% of polystyrene particles from purified water. When we tried the same approach in both drinking water and water coming out of a municipal wastewater treatment plant, the results were just as strong. In drinking water the removal was about 94% and in treated wastewater the removal was up to 92%.

Another finding from this study is that the size of the plastic particles matters. The smaller the microplastic, the easier it is for the powders to attach to it, because tiny particles can reach more of the powder’s special “sticky” surface. We saw very good results for small plastics (hundreds of micrometres), but bigger particles (3-5 millimetres) were hardly removed at all. This is because they don’t mix with the powder as well and there’s less surface for the powder to attach onto.

In everyday terms, these magnetic powders are excellent for the small microplastics that are hardest to catch with normal filters.

Now for the big question: why do the powders attach to plastic? Think of it as being like tiny magnets. The powder and the plastics have special surfaces. The powder has parts that are sticky for plastics. This stickiness happens because of different kinds of forces. The plastic and powders have opposite charges which pull them together or allow them to stick together.

The key point is that the powders are engineered or specifically made to grab onto plastics so that microplastics naturally cling to them in water.

Once the powders attach onto the microplastics, we use a strong magnet (magnetic force: 250kg) to pull the powder–plastic clumps out of the water. The plastics are then separated from the powder by washing and filtration, dried, and weighed. This allows us to check how much plastic was removed. The separated powders are regenerated and reused, while the plastics are safely discarded, preventing them from re-entering the water.

We also looked at real-world questions: can you reuse the powders? And are they safe? The powders themselves are made from safe, lab-engineered materials: tiny sheets of carbon and boron nitride (a material also found in cosmetics and coatings) that are coated with magnetic iron nanoparticles. This makes them stable in water, and easy to pull out with a magnet after they’ve captured the microplastics.

After three rounds of use, the tested powders were effective in removing plastics up to 80%. That means you don’t need a new batch of powder every time, which is important for keeping costs down. Treating 1,000 litres of water with this method costs about US$41 (R763), making it competitive with many existing treatment options.

For safety, we tested the filtered powder (the “filtrate”) on plant growth. The results showed minimal to no toxicity, as three different plants were able to grow well in the presence of the filtrate. This is a strong sign that the method is environmentally friendly when used as intended.

What does this study mean for households and cities?

In the short term, magnetic powders could be built into small cartridges or filter units that attach to household or community water systems, helping remove microplastics before the water is used for drinking or cooking.

But the bigger picture is just as important. Microplastics are not only a South African problem but are also a global pollutant that crosses borders through rivers, oceans, and even the air we breathe. Low-cost, scalable solutions such as magnetic powders can make a real difference in resource-limited settings, where advanced filtration systems are too expensive or impractical.

Looking ahead, further work will focus on scaling up the method, testing it under more diverse water conditions, and designing simple, affordable devices that households or treatment plants can adopt.

In short: this specialised magnetic powder can tackle a tiny pollutant with big consequences. With sensible engineering and careful recovery, magnetic nanocomposites offer a promising, practical path to clean water while protecting the ecosystem from microplastic pollution.

Riona Indhur has received the prestigious National Research Foundation (NRF) postdoctoral research fellowship (Scarce Skills).

The project was funded by the National research Foundation and Water Research Commission of South Africa

– ref. We tested if a specialised magnetic powder could remove microplastics from drinking water: the answer is yes – https://theconversation.com/we-tested-if-a-specialised-magnetic-powder-could-remove-microplastics-from-drinking-water-the-answer-is-yes-264058

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Laura Ferguson, Associate Professor, Population and Public Health Sciences, University of Southern California

Globally, nearly half of the deaths of children under five years are linked to malnutrition. In Kenya, it’s the leading cause of illness and death among children.

Children with malnutrition typically show signs of recent and severe weight loss. They may also have swollen ankles and feet. Acute malnutrition among children is usually the result of eating insufficient food or having infectious diseases, especially diarrhoea.

Acute malnutrition weakens a child’s immune system. This can lead to increased susceptibility to infectious diseases like pneumonia. It can also cause more severe illness and an increased risk of death.

Currently, the Kenyan national response to malnutrition, implemented by the ministry of health, is based on historical trends of malnutrition. This means that if cases of malnutrition have been reported in a certain month, the ministry anticipates a repeat during a similar month in subsequent years. Currently, no statistical modelling guides responses, which has limited their accuracy.

The health ministry has collected monthly data on nutrition-related indicators and other health conditions for many years.

Our multi-disciplinary team set out to explore whether we could use this data to help forecast where, geographically, child malnutrition was likely to occur in the near future. We were aiming for a more accurate forecast than the existing method.

We developed a machine learning model to forecast acute malnutrition among children in Kenya. A machine learning model is a type of mathematical model that, once “trained” on an existing data set, can make predictions of future outcomes. We used existing data and improved forecasting capabilities by including complementary data sources, such as satellite imagery that provides an indicator of crop health.

We found that machine learning-based models consistently outperformed existing platforms used to forecast malnutrition rates in Kenya. And we found that models with satellite-based features worked even better.

Our results demonstrate the ability of machine learning models to more accurately forecast malnutrition in Kenya up to six months ahead of time from a variety of indicators.

If we have advance knowledge of where malnutrition is likely to be high, scarce resources can be allocated to these high-risk areas in a timely manner to try to prevent children from becoming malnourished.

How we did it

We used clinical data from the Kenya Health Information System. This included data on diarrhoea treatment and low birth weight. We collected data on children who visited a health facility who met the definition of being acutely malnourished, among other relevant clinical indicators.

Given that food insecurity is a key driver of acute malnutrition, we also incorporated data reflecting crop activity into our models. We used a NASA satellite to look at gross primary productivity, which measures the rate at which plants convert solar energy into chemical energy. This provides a coarse indicator of crop health and productivity. Lower average rates can be an early indication of food scarcity.

We tested several methods and models for forecasting malnutrition risk among children in Kenya using data collected from January 2019 to February 2024.

The gradient boosting machine learning model – trained on previous acute malnutrition outcomes and gross primary productivity measurements – turned out to be the most effective model for forecasting acute malnutrition among children.

This model can forecast where and at what prevalence level acute malnutrition among children is likely to occur in one month’s time with 89% accuracy.

All the models we developed performed well where the prevalence of acute child malnutrition was expected to be at more than 30%, for instance in northern and eastern Kenya, which have dry climates. However, when the prevalence was less than 15%, for instance in western and central Kenya, only the machine learning models were able to forecast with good accuracy.

This higher accuracy is achieved because the models use additional information on multiple clinical factors. They can, therefore, find more complex relationships.

Implications

Current efforts to predict acute malnutrition among children rely only on historical knowledge of malnutrition patterns. We found these forecasts were less accurate than our models.

Our models leverage historical malnutrition patterns, as well as clinical indicators and satellite-based indicators.

The forecasting performance of our models is also better than other similar data-based modelling efforts published by other researchers.

As resources for health and nutrition shrink, improved targeting to the areas of highest need is critical. Treating acute malnutrition can save a child’s life.

Prevention of malnutrition promotes children’s full psychological and physical development.

What needs to happen next

Making these data from diverse sources available through a dashboard could inform decision-making. Responders could get six months to intervene where they are most needed.

We have developed a prototype dashboard to create visualisations of what responders would be able to see based on our model’s subcounty-level forecasts. We are currently working with the Kenyan ministry of health and Amref Health Africa, a health development NGO, to ensure that the dashboard is available to local decision-makers and stakeholders. It is regularly updated with the most current data and new forecasts.

We are also working with our partners to refine the dashboard to meet the needs of the end users and promote its use in national decision-making on responses to acute malnutrition among children. We’re tracking the impacts of this work.

Throughout this process, it will be important to strengthen the capacity of our partners to manage, update and use the model and dashboard. This will promote local responsiveness, ownership and sustainability.

Scaling up

The Kenya Health Information System relies on the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). This is an open source software platform. It is currently used by over 80 low- and middle-income countries. The satellite data that we used in our models is also available in all of these countries.

If we can secure additional funding, we plan to expand our work geographically and to other areas of health. We’ve also made our code publicly available, which allows anyone to use it and replicate our work in other countries where child malnutrition is a public health challenge.

Furthermore, our model proves that DHIS2 data, despite challenges with its completeness and quality, can be used in machine learning models to inform public health responses. This work could be adapted to address public health issues beyond malnutrition, like changes in patterns of infectious diseases due to climate change.

This work was a collaboration between the University of Southern California’s Institute on Inequalities in Global Health and Center for Artificial Intelligence in Society, Microsoft, Amref Health Africa and the Kenyan ministry of health.

This work was supported, in part, by the Microsoft Corporation.

Bistra Dilkina received in-kind support from Microsoft AI for Good for this work.

– ref. Child malnutrition in Kenya: AI model can forecast rates six months before they become critical – https://theconversation.com/child-malnutrition-in-kenya-ai-model-can-forecast-rates-six-months-before-they-become-critical-261075