Valentino entendió que la elegancia también cotizaba en bolsa

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Pedro Mir, Profesor de la Facultad de Económicas y Director Académico de ISEM Fashion Business School, Universidad de Navarra, Universidad de Navarra

Valentino en una imagen promocional de _Valentino: el último emperador_, con modelos vistiendo diseños ‘rojo Valentino’. Valentino Movie

Roma despedirá el viernes 23 de enero a Valentino Garavani, el diseñador italiano que convirtió un matiz rojo en símbolo universal del glamour y transformó la alta costura en un negocio multimillonario. Su empresa sobrevivió cuatro cambios de dueño y sigue funcionando 17 años después del retiro de quien le dio su nombre.

Fallecido a los 93 años, en su residencia romana, Valentino deja un legado que va mucho más allá de las pasarelas. En 1959 fundó su casa de moda, cuando la industria italiana competía por dejar atrás la etiqueta de simple manufacturera de París. Y consiguió convertirla en una máquina de generar prestigio y beneficios que culminó con su adquisición, por parte del grupo italiano HdP, por 300 millones de dólares en 1998, una cifra que triplicaba sus ventas directas de entonces.

La operación con HdP marcó un hito en la profesionalización de las casas de moda familiares. Valentino y su socio Giancarlo Giammetti –quien tras conocer al diseñador, en 1960, abandonó su carrera en el mundo de la arquitectura para gestionar el negocio– demostraron que una marca podía cotizar por su valor simbólico, no solo por sus cuentas de resultados.

Cuatro años después, HdP vendió la empresa al grupo Marzotto por apenas 210 millones de euros, lo que dejó en evidencia los riesgos de comprar glamour sin infraestructura. En 2012, el fondo catarí Mayhoola pagó 700 millones de dólares por ella, consolidando su posición en el mercado del lujo global.

Exclusiva y popular

Pero la genialidad de Valentino no residió en las hojas de balance sino en haber entendido, antes que nadie, que la alta costura podía ser simultáneamente exclusiva y mediática.

Mientras sus competidores protegían celosamente sus talleres, él invitó a la prensa a documentar cada puntada, cada prueba, cada capricho. El documental de 2008 Valentino: el último emperador mostró sin filtros el ego, las manías y el perfeccionismo de un creador que exigía 30 pruebas para un solo vestido.

La construcción de su marca descansó sobre tres pilares que cualquier escuela de negocios reconocería hoy como fundamentales.

Una mujer con un vestido negro con pequeñas líneas blancas sujeta una estatuilla.
Julia Roberts recogió su Óscar a la mejor actriz por Erin Brokovich con un icónico vestido de Valentino.
Featureflash Photo Agency/Shutterstock

En primer lugar, la diferenciación extrema mediante el “rojo Valentino”, un tono con matices naranjas que supuestamente descubrió durante una visita a la ópera en Barcelona. En segundo lugar, su asociación con una clientela prescriptora, desde Jackie Kennedy –quien eligió vestir de Valentino para su boda con Aristóteles Onassis, en 1968– hasta Julia Roberts recogiendo su Óscar. Y en tercer lugar, la expansión estratégica desde la alta costura al prêt-à-porter, los accesorios y las licencias, sin diluir el prestigio de la marca madre.

A estos tres pilares se sumaba un cuarto, quizás el más determinante desde una perspectiva de marketing: Valentino se convirtió en la personificación de su propia marca. Este mecanismo –denominado founder-brand identity, es decir, “identidad del fundador de la firma”– se da cuando el creador deja de ser simplemente el diseñador para convertirse en el activo intangible más valioso de la empresa.

Su imagen impecablemente cuidada, su presencia mediática constante y su estilo de vida ostensiblemente refinado no eran vanidad sino estrategia: cada aparición pública reforzaba los valores de marca. No era Valentino quien vestía de Valentino: era Valentino quien era Valentino.

Este fenómeno tiene precedentes selectos en la industria: Coco Chanel encarnó la liberación femenina que vendían sus diseños, Giorgio Armani proyectó la sobriedad elegante de sus trajes y Ralph Lauren ha construido un universo aspiracional americano del que él mismo es protagonista. Pero pocos ejecutaron esta fusión con tanta coherencia durante seis décadas.

Un zapato de éxito

Paradójicamente, fue después de su retiro cuando la marca alcanzó uno de sus mayores éxitos comerciales en calzado. En 2010 lanzaron el Rockstud, un stiletto decorado con tachuelas piramidales inspiradas en el bugnato, un detalle arquitectónico romano que adornaba los palacios de la ciudad eterna.

Fotografía de unos pies con unos zapatos.
Fotografía de los ‘Rockstud’.
KKCreative/Shutterstock

El zapato no solo se convirtió en objeto de culto –ganó el premio del Council of Fashion Designers of America–, sino que demostró que Valentino había construido una plataforma de marca lo suficientemente sólida como para generar iconos sin su presencia física. Desde su debut, la línea Rockstud impulsó el crecimiento de ventas de la casa en un 36 %, con los accesorios representando la mitad del volumen de negocio. La colección se expandió a bolsos, bailarinas, sandalias e incluso líneas para mascotas, consolidando un código visual propio que compite en reconocimiento inmediato con cualquier monograma del lujo.

Con precios desde 720 euros, los Rockstud hicieron que Valentino fuese (un poco) más accesible sin traicionar su esencia: seguían siendo aspiracionales, impecablemente ejecutados y portadores de una narrativa de prestigio.

Una mujer rubia alta y un hombre de traje muy bronceado.
Gwyneth Paltrow y Valentino Garavani en el estreno del documental Valentino: el último emperador en Los Ángeles, en 2009.
s_bukley/Shutterstock

Su método de trabajo anticipó lo que décadas después se llamaría marketing de influencers. No esperaba a que las actrices llamaran: las vestía gratis para los Óscar, generaba imágenes icónicas y convertía cada alfombra roja en un escaparate valorado en millones. Jessica Lange, Julia Roberts, Anne Hathaway o Jennifer López entendieron que llevar un Valentino no era solo lucir un vestido. Era apropiarse de una narrativa de elegancia atemporal.

Un estilo de vida

El aspecto más fascinante de su trayectoria empresarial fue cómo monetizó su estilo de vida. Moviéndose entre residencias en Roma, Capri, Gstaad, Londres y Nueva York, con un yate de 46 metros y una colección de arte que incluía Picassos y Mirós, Valentino no solo vendía ropa: vendía aspiración. Sus clientes no compraban prendas sino el acceso simbólico a ese universo de belleza implacable.

La marca ha tenido directores creativos dispares y Alessandro Michele, fichado en 2024, es el encargado ahora de reinventarla. Todos trabajan bajo la tutela financiera de Mayhoola (70 %) y Kering (30 %). Este último grupo ejercerá el control total en 2028 o 2029, según opciones contractuales.

La lección de Valentino para la industria de la moda no fue solo estética sino estratégica: demostró que el lujo funciona como negocio cuando se construye sobre códigos visuales reconocibles, cuando se alimenta con disciplina narrativa y cuando se gestiona la escasez como recurso de posicionamiento. El “rojo Valentino” no era un color, era una patente emocional.

Sus últimos años los dedicó a la Fundación Valentino Garavani y Giancarlo Giammetti. En 2023 inauguró PM23, un espacio cultural en la Piazza Mignanelli de Roma donde se exhibe su archivo. Fue su forma de controlar el relato póstumo: convertir sus creaciones en patrimonio antes de que otros decidieran qué hacer con ellas.

El viernes 23 de enero desfilarán por su funeral en la Basílica de Santa Maria degli Angeli e dei Martiri la aristocracia europea, la industria de la moda y las clientas que durante décadas confiaron en él para los momentos que requerían no solo belleza sino autoridad estética. Porque Valentino no solo hizo que las mujeres lucieran elegantes: construyó un sistema para que esa belleza cotizara en bolsa.

The Conversation

Pedro Mir no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Valentino entendió que la elegancia también cotizaba en bolsa – https://theconversation.com/valentino-entendio-que-la-elegancia-tambien-cotizaba-en-bolsa-273922

Trump: el orden y el caos

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Juan Luis Manfredi, Professor International Studies & Journalism, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha

Trump ha firmado 225 órdenes ejecutivas durante el primer año de su segundo mandato. IAB Studio/Shutterstock

Estremece leer la Carta del Atlántico, firmada en agosto de 1941 por Franklin Delano Roosvelt y Winston Churchill. Los principios políticos compartidos, la solidaridad entre ambas potencias, la apuesta por mecanismos de seguridad colectiva y la libertad sin miedo asentaron las bases del sistema internacional de inspiración liberal.

Estados Unidos se ha independizado de dicho orden, ha renunciado a su rol como líder global y se ha retirado a su hemisferio.

El nuevo orden que viene se asemeja sobremanera a la primera globalización (1870-1914): una competición entre grandes potencias por el control de los recursos y la geografía, la debilidad de las instituciones multilaterales, un nacionalismo reaccionario y la coerción –y la guerra– como mecanismo de solución de controversias.

Asistimos al nacimiento de un mundo desglobalizado, menos seguro y más inestable. Tal es el legado del primer aniversario de la segunda presidencia de Donald Trump, una auténtica revolución cultural, política y filosófica.

225 órdenes ejecutivas y 13 países visitados

El presidente Trump ejerce el poder. Ha firmado 225 órdenes ejecutivas, más que en su primer mandato, y ha visitado 13 países. Toma decisiones y actúa rápido. Tiene prisa porque se le agota el tiempo, dada su edad y las elecciones de medio término.

La expansión del poder presidencial enrarece el ambiente de la política doméstica, donde los líderes políticos y sociales no aciertan a responder ante tanta iniciativa. En la producción de la agenda y de la realidad mediática, el presidente ha ganado la partida. En el plano jurídico, el presidente se asigna poderes de emergencia para casi todo: aranceles y tarifas, control de fronteras, lucha contra el narcotráfico, reformas energéticas o la Guardia Federal.

Su popularidad no despega, anclada en menos del 40 %. Los recortes en la administración, la subida de precios asociada a los aranceles o la falta de oportunidades en vivienda limitan el discurso de affordability –algo así como “asequibilidad”– que le llevó a la Casa Blanca.

Más aún, el ataque a la independencia de la Reserva Federal, las actuaciones violentas del ICE –Servicio de Control de Inmigración y Aduanas– y el despliegue de la Guardia Federal en distintas ciudades son decisiones desconcertantes. En su propio electorado, el movimiento MAGA se divide entre los partidarios del vicepresidente J. D. Vance y la agitación del secretario de Estado Marco Rubio.

En materia de política exterior, la Estrategia de Seguridad Nacional ha explicitado el Corolario Trump, una estrategia ofensiva de poder duro sin más límite que su propia moralidad. Ha bombardeado Yemen, Siria, Irán, Nigeria o Somalia, pero se resiste a poner botas sobre el terreno. La coerción es aérea y económica. La captura de Venezuela anticipa una era de intervencionismo regional y potestad sobre los recursos económicos.

El hemisferio occidental es un corredor geográfico, de Groenlandia a la Patagonia, que produce la seguridad material de los Estados Unidos: energía, cadenas de suministro y mercados de consumo. La verticalización del poder se construye sobre una mirada geográfica Norte-Sur y abandona el interés por las cuestiones del eje Este-Oeste, sea China-Taiwán, sea Rusia-Unión Europea. El futuro de Oriente Medio es una incógnita y la estabilidad regional aún espera el resultado de la revolución iraní.

Sin compromiso con la democracia

Trump argumenta una política exterior soberanista y sin compromiso con la democracia o los derechos humanos. Sin valores políticos compartidos, los países medianos y pequeños cambiarán de bando y alianzas con mayor frecuencia. Indonesia ha anunciado la adquisición de tecnología militar china, mientras los europeos se dejan seducir por la potencia asiática.

Las esferas de influencia benefician a China y Rusia, que apenas han manifestado interés público por los sucesos de Venezuela o Groenlandia. Solo me queda una duda, ¿dónde queda India en este reparto postcolonial? No es una estrategia para pensar la próxima década, sino una respuesta para adaptar Estados Unidos a un mundo que ha pasado de la globalización a la geoeconomía.

En economía se confirma la fusión entre política energética, tecnología, comercio y seguridad. Estados Unidos produce unos 14 millones de barriles de petróleo al día, más que Arabia Saudí y Rusia, y casi lo mismo que Rusia, Irán y China juntos. Además, se ha aprobado la construcción de nuevos minirreactores nucleares. No habrá descarbonización ni transición energética en una economía orientada hacia los servicios digitales y la inteligencia artificial.

El capitalismo patriótico recupera el mercantilismo industrial y funda unas viejas nuevas compañías de indias digitales. El modelo privatiza el futuro, la ciencia y el conocimiento, limitando la competencia. El Stargate Project, impulsado por la compañía OpenAI, cuenta con inversión privada, capital saudí y catarí. La desregulación de las criptomonedas va en la misma dirección.

Las guerras culturales, el ocaso de la cultura woke y el debilitamiento de las políticas de identidad han creado un marco propicio para revisar qué significa ser estadounidense.

Los museos del Smithsonian Institute tienen la orden de revisar sus narrativas para alienarse con el nuevo ideal. Las universidades renuncian a oficinas y programas DEI –Diversidad, Equidad e Inclusión– para no perder financiación federal.

Un Arco del Triunfo en Washington

Entretanto, se anuncia la construcción de un Arco del Triunfo en el Mall de Washington para conmemorar el 250 aniversario de la República. El cuadro se completa con una política semántica que renombra el Golfo de América, el Departamento de Guerra o el Trump Kennedy Center.

En suma, el presidente Trump ha acelerado el tiempo histórico y nos conduce de manera inexorable, como a Los sonámbulos del historiador Christopher Clark, a un mundo postliberal y postamericano.

The Conversation

Juan Luis Manfredi no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Trump: el orden y el caos – https://theconversation.com/trump-el-orden-y-el-caos-273887

¿Trabajos bien escritos que no dicen nada? Qué es el ‘workslop’ de la IA y cómo evitarlo

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By María Isabel Labrado Antolin, Profesor Ayudante Doctor Organización de Empresas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Lucky Business/Shutterstock

Imagine un estudiante que se encuentra ante esta tarea: “Analizar la expansión internacional de Starbucks en mercados emergentes. Considere factores culturales, económicos y de gobernanza”. En lugar de investigar y reflexionar, el estudiante copia la instrucción completa y la pega en ChatGPT con un simple “desarrolla esto”.

Algunos minutos después recibe un texto perfectamente estructurado. Párrafos elaborados, vocabulario académico, referencias a teorías de gestión internacional y conclusiones que suenan profundas. Sin leerlo en profundidad, lo entrega.

El profesor lo lee y se encuentra con párrafos como estos:

“La expansión internacional de Starbucks en mercados emergentes representa un caso paradigmático de la tensión entre estandarización global y adaptación local. Desde la perspectiva del modelo CAGE de Pankaj Ghemawat, la compañía ha navegado exitosamente las distancias culturales, administrativas, geográficas y económicas. Su enfoque híbrido, que combina elementos universales de la marca con ajustes contextuales, ilustra la sofisticación necesaria para triunfar en
mercados heterogéneos.”

Suena impecable. Jerga académica correcta, teoría legítima citada, estructura impecable. Pero es completamente intercambiable: podría ser sobre Nike, Coca-Cola o Inditex sin cambiar una palabra. No menciona ningún mercado específico. No reflexiona sobre contradicciones reales. No muestra investigación personal.

Eso que acaba de leer es workslop: contenido que aparenta estar bien elaborado pero que carece completamente de sustancia.

Contenido ‘basura’ con buen aspecto

El término, que ha ganado tracción recientemente en los círculos académicos y empresariales, describe un fenómeno cada vez más común en la era de las herramientas de inteligencia artificial generativa. El sustantivo “slop” se refiere, en inglés, a una comida más líquida de lo que debería con un aspecto nada apetecible, o a un líquido sucio de desecho. Una posible traducción al castellano de este neologismo podría ser “contenido basura”, “palabrería vacía” o “relleno de baja calidad”…

No se trata simplemente de plagio o copia textual. El workslop es más insidioso: es contenido nuevo, que parece académicamente sólido, y supera una lectura superficial. En realidad, no aporta valor intelectual alguno porque nunca fue producto del pensamiento genuino. Es la basura con aspecto de joyería: algo perfecto en forma pero vacío en esencia.

La carga de procesar el ‘workslop’

El workslop no se detecta a simple vista porque cumple los estándares formales: jerga académica apropiada, estructura lógica, citas correctas. Pero le falta profundidad. Las conclusiones son genéricas, los argumentos superficiales, aplicables a múltiples contextos. Para el receptor, tramitar este contenido supone una pérdida de tiempo en decodificación, evaluación y retroalimentación. La experiencia es equivalente a la de un espejismo académico: promete conocimiento donde sólo hay vacío.

Este tipo de contenido basura con aspecto solvente crea una ilusión engañosa: la apariencia del progreso mientras que la realidad es que la carga cognitiva se transfiere del que crea al que recibe.




Leer más:
¿Quién (no) usa ChatGPT en la universidad? El papel de la brújula ética


En el entorno académico, además de la pérdida de productividad, este tipo de contenidos erosiona la confianza entre profesores y alumnos. Cuando alguien recibe workslop, no solo ha perdido tiempo decodificando el contenido; también ha formado juicios negativos sobre quien lo envió. Se pregunta: “¿Por qué enviaron esto? ¿No pueden hacer su trabajo? ¿No valoran mi tiempo?”.

La IA como problema y como solución

Pero la misma tecnología que genera workslop también puede ayudarnos a evitarlo. Todo depende de cómo usemos la inteligencia artificial.

Uno de nuestros estudios recientes revela patrones sorprendentes sobre los factores que influyen en que la IA devuelva contenido inane o vacío, o contenido de más calidad. Tras analizar conversaciones de estudiantes de educación superior con chatbots de IA durante tareas de análisis estratégico, descubrimos que la forma en que un estudiante se comunica con la IA determina la calidad del contenido obtenido.

Los estudiantes que adoptan un tono relacional con la IA demuestran pensamiento crítico más profundo, produciendo así respuestas académicas de más calidad. Por ejemplo, ante una respuesta del chatbot un estudiante prosige: “Interesante, puedes darme una explicación a ….?”. Este estilo y tono más “relacional” se consigue a través de preguntas de seguimiento y muestras de curiosidad cognitiva. Con ello, los alumnos logran indagar en mayor profundidad el caso que se les planteaba.




Leer más:
Cuatro maneras de experimentar con la inteligencia artificial en el aula universitaria


Por el contrario, aquellos que empleaban un tono neutral y realizaban preguntas pasivas mostraban menor compromiso cognitivo con la tarea. En otras palabras, cuando los estudiantes interactúan con la IA confiando en el valor esperado, emulando una conversación genuina, el contenido resultante refleja ese pensamiento más sofisticado. Cuando simplemente envían instrucciones frías y esperan respuestas, obtenemos el workslop.

Tratar a la IA como a un colaborador

He aquí dos ejemplos de cómo utilizar una herramienta de inteligencia artificial para elaborar un trabajo académico:

Enfoque que genera workslop:

Copiar el enunciado de la tarea y pedir “desarrolla esto” (sin ninguna reflexión previa sobre qué es lo que realmente necesita analizar o entender).

Enfoque que evita el workslop:

“He leído que Starbucks enfatiza la adaptación local. ¿Eso contradice su posicionamiento global como marca “premium”? ¿Cómo lo resuelven en Asia? Y si lo resuelven así en Asia, ¿por qué no aplican la misma estrategia en América Latina?“

En el segundo caso, el estudiante está creando un diálogo real, está cuestionando, está buscando consistencia lógica. La IA, a su vez, proporciona respuestas más profundas porque se le está pidiendo que lo haga de manera reflexiva. El resultado es contenido académico que refleja genuina cognición crítica, no frases bien construidas sin una aportación de contenido útil o de calidad.

Pensamiento crítico imprescindible

La IA no genera necesariamente workslop. Lo hace cuando la usamos sin pensamiento crítico genuino. Cuando la usamos para profundizar razonamientos, manteniendo diálogo auténtico y buscando alineación real entre intenciones intelectuales y respuestas, la IA se convierte en amplificador de pensamiento, no sustituto.

Del resultado de nuestro estudio se destilan tres recomendaciones para estudiantes: usar la IA como compañero de pensamiento, no como sustituto, prestar atención al tono emocional utilizado en la comunicación, y validar el texto generado y su aportación de valor respondiendo a la pregunta: “¿el texto añade algo nuevo o reorganiza lo obvio?” Si es lo segundo, puede usted estar generando workslop.

El desafío no es la tecnología. Es nuestra disposición a usarla de manera genuinamente reflexiva. La verdadera pregunta que todo estudiante o investigador debe hacerse no es “¿Puede la herramienta hacer esto?”, sino “¿Estoy usando esto para mejorar realmente mi pensamiento?”. De nosotros depende la diferencia.

The Conversation

María Isabel Labrado Antolin no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. ¿Trabajos bien escritos que no dicen nada? Qué es el ‘workslop’ de la IA y cómo evitarlo – https://theconversation.com/trabajos-bien-escritos-que-no-dicen-nada-que-es-el-workslop-de-la-ia-y-como-evitarlo-273657

Trump’s stated reasons for taking Greenland are wrong – but the tactics fit with the plan to limit China’s economic interests

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Steven Lamy, Professor Emeritus of Political Science and International Relations and Spatial Sciences, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

People protest against U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy toward Greenland in front of the U.S. consulate in Nuuk, Greenland, on Jan. 17, 2026. AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka

In 2019, during his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a desire to buy Greenland, which has been a part of Denmark for some 300 years. Danes and Greenlanders quickly rebuffed the offer at the time.

During Trump’s second term, those offers have turned to threats.

Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social in late December 2024 that, for purposes of national security, U.S. control over Greenland was a necessity. The president has continued to insist on the national security rationale into January 2026. And he has refused to rule out the use of military force to control Greenland.

From my perspective as an international relations scholar focused on Europe, Trump’s national security rationale doesn’t make sense. Greenland, like the U.S., is a member of NATO, which provides a collective defense pact, meaning member nations will respond to an attack on any alliance member. And because of a 1951 defense agreement between the U.S. and Denmark, the U.S. can already build military installations in Greenland to protect the region.

Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy, which stresses control of the Western Hemisphere and keeping China out of the region, provides insight into Trump’s thinking.

US interests in Greenland

The United States has tried to acquire Greenland several times.

In 1867, Secretary of State William Seward commissioned a survey of Greenland. Impressed with the abundance of natural resources on the island, he pushed to acquire Greenland and Iceland for US$5.5 million – roughly $125 million today.

But Congress was still concerned about the purchase of Alaska that year, which Seward had engineered. It had seen Alaska as too cold and too distant from the rest of the U.S. to justify spending $7.2 million – roughly $164 million today – although Congress ultimately agreed to do it. There was not enough national support for another frozen land.

In 1910, the U.S. ambassador to Denmark proposed a complex trade involving Germany, Denmark and the United States. Denmark would give the U.S. Greenland, and the U.S. would give Denmark islands in the Philippines. Denmark would then give those islands to Germany, and Germany would return Schleswig-Holstein – Germany’s northernmost state – to Denmark.

But the U.S. quickly dismissed the proposed trade as too audacious.

During World War II, Nazi Germany occupied Denmark, and the U.S. assumed the role of protector of both Greenland and Iceland, both of which belonged to Denmark at the time. The U.S. built airstrips, weather stations and radar and communications stations – five on Greenland’s east coast and nine on the west coast.

A military base is seen in front of a snowy hillside.
The Pituffik Space Base, formerly Thule Air Base, is pictured in northern Greenland on Oct. 4, 2023.
Thomas Traasdahl/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. used Greenland and Iceland as bases for bombers that attacked Germany and German-occupied areas. Greenland had a high value for military strategists because of its location in the North Atlantic – to counter Nazi threats to Allied shipping lanes and protect transatlantic routes, and because it was a midpoint for refueling U.S. aircraft. Greenland’s importance also rested on its deposits of cryolite, useful for making aluminum.

In 1946, the Truman administration offered to buy Greenland for $100 million, as U.S. military leaders thought it would play a critical role in the Cold War.

The secret U.S. project Operation Blue Jay at the beginning of the Cold War resulted in the construction of Thule Air Base in northwestern Greenland, which allowed U.S. bombers to be closer to the Soviet Union. Renamed Pituffik Space Base, today it provides a 24/7 missile warning and space surveillance facility that is critical to NATO and U.S. security strategy.

At the end of World War II, Denmark recognized Greenland as one of its territories. In 1953, Greenland gained constitutional rights and became a country within the Kingdom of Denmark. Greenland was assigned self-rule in 1979, and by 2009 it became a self-governing country, still within the Kingdom of Denmark, which includes Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands.

Denmark recognizes the government of Greenland as an equal partner and recently gave it a more significant role as the first voice for Denmark in the Arctic Council, which promotes cooperation in the Arctic.

What the US may want

The Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy identifies three threats in the Western Hemisphere: migration, drugs and crimes, and China’s increasing influence.

Two of those threats are irrelevant when considering Greenland. Greenlandic people are not migrating to the U.S., and they are not drug traffickers. However, Greenland is rich in rare earth minerals, including neodymium, dysprosium, graphite, copper and lithium.

Additionally, China seeks to establish mining interests in Greenland and the Arctic as part of its Polar Silk Road initiative. China had offered to build an infrastructure for Greenland, including improving the airport, until Denmark stepped in and offered airport funding. And China has worked with Australian companies to secure mining opportunities on the island.

A U.S. Air Force helicopter flies over snow.
A U.S. Air Force helicopter flies near Thule Air Base in Greenland in 1955.
James McAnally/Archive Photos/Getty Images

Those rare earth minerals appeal to the European Union, too. The EU lists some 30 raw materials that are essential for their economies. Twenty-five are in Greenland.

The Trump administration has made it clear that controlling these minerals is a national security issue, and the president wants to keep them away from China.

Figures vary, but it is estimated that over 60% of rare earth elements or minerals are currently mined in China. China also refines some 90% of rare earths. This gives China tremendous leverage in trade talks. And it results in a dangerous vulnerability for the U.S. and other nation states seeking to modernize their economies. With few suppliers of these rare earth elements, the political and economic costs of securing them are high.

Greenland has only two operating mines. One is the Tan Breez project in southern Greenland. It produces 17 metals, including terbium and neodymium, that are used in high-strength magnets used in many green technologies and in aircraft manufacturing, including for the F-35 fighter planes.

Consider for a moment that Trump is not interested in owning Greenland.

Instead, he is using this threatening position to secure promises from the Greenlandic government to make economic deals with the U.S. and not China. Thus, Trump’s threats could be less about national security and much more about eliminating competition from China and securing wealth for U.S. interests.

This form of coercive diplomacy threatens the political and economic development of not only Greenland but Europe. In recent interviews, Trump has made it clear that he does not respect international law and the sovereignty of countries. His position, I believe, undermines the international order and removes the U.S. as a responsible leader of that framework established after World War II.

The Conversation

Steven Lamy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Trump’s stated reasons for taking Greenland are wrong – but the tactics fit with the plan to limit China’s economic interests – https://theconversation.com/trumps-stated-reasons-for-taking-greenland-are-wrong-but-the-tactics-fit-with-the-plan-to-limit-chinas-economic-interests-273548

Guerre en Ukraine : à la recherche d’une paix introuvable

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Renéo Lukic, Professeur titulaire de relations internationales, Université Laval

Tout indique que les négociations portant sur l’arrêt de la guerre en Ukraine sont au point mort. Divers enjeux laissent penser que cette situation est voulue par le Kremlin, qui peut non seulement s’en saisir afin d’accroître ses gains territoriaux et renforcer ses leviers à la table de négociations, mais aussi pour exposer les divisions au sein de l’Union européenne (UE).

Initiées depuis plusieurs mois par les États-Unis, l’Ukraine, la Russie et les États européens représentés par la Grande-Bretagne, la France et l’Allemagne, les négociations n’ont pas connu d’avancée significative vers un cessez-le-feu ou un accord de paix. Cette situation va perdurer tant que le président Poutine refusera de s’asseoir à la table de négociation avec le président Zelensky.

Professeur en relations internationales à l’Université Laval et spécialiste de la politique étrangère russe, je m’intéresse depuis 2014 à la guerre en Ukraine et à la réaction internationale vis-à-vis du conflit.

L’argument de paille

Poutine nie la légitimité de Zelensky de négocier un accord de paix, car selon lui, son homologue ukrainien refuse d’organiser les élections présidentielles dans son pays. Les élections présidentielles en Ukraine prévues en 2024 ont été repoussées jusqu’à nouvel ordre en raison de la guerre.

Il est donc facile de réfuter l’argument de Poutine, puisqu’il repose sur une simplification – voire une négation – de la réalité ukrainienne.

Rappelons que suite à l’agression russe du 24 février 2022, l’Ukraine a déclaré la loi martiale, laquelle suspend la tenue des élections. Les centaines de drones et de bombes qui s’abattent quotidiennement sur le territoire de l’Ukraine, en tuant les civiles et en détruisant les infrastructures du pays, ne permettent pas l’organisation d’élections démocratiques. L’instauration de la loi martiale en temps de guerre est une pratique ancienne et reconnue, d’ailleurs encadrée par le droit international des droits humains.

Poutine sait tout cela.

Il faut d’abord conclure un cessez-le-feu entre les belligérants afin que des élections présidentielles puissent être organisées. En repoussant les négociations directes avec l’Ukraine, le Kremlin cherche à maximiser ses gains territoriaux dans le Donbass, au détriment de l’Ukraine.

L’Union européenne méprisée

Plutôt que d’entamer des négociations directes avec l’Ukraine, Poutine s’est tourné vers le président Trump. Sa stratégie diplomatique poursuit deux objectifs. Le premier concerne l’affaiblissement à moyen terme des relations entre les États-Unis et l’UE, ainsi que le renforcement de ses propres relations avec les États-Unis. Le second objectif de la diplomatie russe vise la fissuration du soutien politique et économique de l’UE à l’égard de l’Ukraine.

Comme le montre le document de l’administration Trump intitulé « Stratégie de Sécurité Nationale » (National Security Strategy) publié le 5 décembre 2025, la perception que les États-Unis ont de l’UE est très négative, voire méprisante. L’UE est perçue comme une organisation en « déclin économique » confrontée à un « effacement civilisationnel » en raison de sa politique d’immigration hors de contrôle.

Dans une entrevue au site Politico le 8 décembre 2025, Trump a critiqué sur le même ton les dirigeants de l’UE : « Ils parlent, mais ils n’agissent pas, et la guerre ne cesse pas de s’éterniser » en Ukraine. Les mêmes reproches avaient déjà été exprimés par le vice-président des États-Unis J.D. Vance en février 2025 à la conférence de Munich. Ces deux prises de parole exemplifient le peu de poids politique dont jouit l’UE à Washington.


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Réorientation des États-Unis

La nouvelle doctrine de sécurité nationale de l’administration américaine est bien reçue à Moscou. Pour Poutine, cette constellation diplomatique est perçue d’un œil favorable, car elle ouvre la porte à une entente entre la Russie et les États-Unis au détriment de l’Ukraine et de l’Europe.

Bref, un nouveau traité de Yalta, organisant une nouvelle division de l’Europe en deux blocs opposés tant désirée par Poutine, pourrait voir le jour.

Pour arriver à un accord de paix en Ukraine, les États-Unis pourraient s’inspirer des accords de Dayton. Signés en 1995, ces accords ont mis fin aux guerres en ex-Yougoslavie. Le président américain Bill Clinton (1993-2001) et son diplomate Richard Holbrook responsable des négociations ont réussi à rassembler à la table de négociation le président serbe Slobodan Milosevic, responsable des guerres en ex-Yougoslavie, le président de Croatie Franjo Tudjman et le président de Bosnie Alia Izetbegovic.

Ce format de négociations a permis de mettre fin à la guerre. La médiation diplomatique américaine était décisive pour parvenir à la fin de la guerre et elle était soutenue par les alliés européens. Trente ans après la signature des accords de Dayton, la paix perdure entre la Bosnie, la Croatie et la Serbie.

Frapper l’économie

Après le départ du président américain Joe Biden, l’UE est devenue le premier livreur de l’aide économique et militaire de l’Ukraine. Dorénavant, les armes livrées par les États-Unis à l’Ukraine sont payées par l’Ukraine et l’UE.

Pour soutenir l’effort de guerre ukrainienne, l’UE a imposé 19 paquets de sanctions économiques à la Russie, a gelé des avoirs russes, a exclu partiellement des banques russes du système Swift. De nombreuses autres mesures visant l’affaiblissement de son économie afin d’obtenir en cessez-le-feu en Ukraine ont également été mises en place.

Pour la Russie, l’UE est devenue un belligérant dangereux. Surtout après que l’UE a décidé, le 12 décembre 2025, d’immobiliser les actifs russes jusqu’à la fin de guerre en Ukraine. Ces actifs, d’une valeur de 210 milliards d’euros, se trouvent en Belgique, dans la société Euroclear, une institution financière de dépôt basée à Bruxelles. L’intention de la Commission de l’UE était d’utiliser une partie de cet argent pour faire un prêt à l’Ukraine. Après l’opposition de la Belgique, de la Hongrie, de la Slovaquie et de la Tchequie, la Commission a décidé de faire un prêt de 90 milliards d’euros à Kiev en utilisant ses propres fonds financiers.

Ce recul marquait une victoire diplomatique de Poutine contre les dirigeants européens jugés hostiles à la Russie.

Dans sa dernière conférence de presse tenue le 19 décembre 2025, Poutine a qualifié les dirigeants européens « de porcelets » décidés à provoquer « l’effondrement » de la Russie. Briser l’unité de l’UE est l’objectif primordial de la Russie, car après la diminution de l’aide américaine, l’UE reste le premier bailleur de fonds de l’Ukraine.

La Conversation Canada

Renéo Lukic ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Guerre en Ukraine : à la recherche d’une paix introuvable – https://theconversation.com/guerre-en-ukraine-a-la-recherche-dune-paix-introuvable-272545

Près de la moitié des démences seraient évitables grâce à nos habitudes de vie – dont l’exercice

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Louis Bherer, Professor, Université de Montréal

On dépense des milliards de dollars à rechercher la molécule qui soignera la maladie d’Alzheimer. Mais l’adoption de certaines habitudes de vie pourrait, entre-temps, réduire significativement le risque d’en développer les symptômes, jusqu’à près de la moitié des cas, souligne le Dr Louis Bherer.

Professeur au département de médecine de l’Université de Montréal, chercheur et directeur du Centre ÉPIC, le centre de médecine préventive et d’activité physique de l’Institut de cardiologie de Montréal, ses travaux portent sur l’impact du style de vie, de l’exercice physique et de la stimulation cognitive sur la santé cérébrale des personnes âgées et des patients atteints de maladies cardiovasculaires.

À son laboratoire montréalais, le Dr Bherer et son équipe élaborent des programmes d’exercices tant physiques que cognitifs. Les résultats corroborent ceux d’autres recherches sur l’importance du mode de vie dans la prévention des démences, une donnée négligée par la santé publique, explique celui qui est également directeur de laboratoire à l’Institut universitaire de gériatrie de Montréal.


Cet article fait partie de notre série La Révolution grise. La Conversation vous propose d’analyser sous toutes ses facettes l’impact du vieillissement de l’imposante cohorte des boomers sur notre société, qu’ils transforment depuis leur venue au monde. Manières de se loger, de travailler, de consommer la culture, de s’alimenter, de voyager, de se soigner, de vivre… découvrez avec nous les bouleversements en cours, et à venir.


La Conversation Canada : Une nouvelle étude de Statistique Canada sur l’espérance de vie en bonne santé indique un recul substantiel au Canada : en 2023, elle était de 66,9 ans, une baisse de 3,5 ans par rapport au sommet de 70,4 ans atteint entre 2010 et 2012. Ça vous surprend ?

Dr Louis Bherer : Oui et non. Mais le fait est que ce qu’on appelle le Healthspan-Lifespan Gap, c’est-à-dire l’écart entre l’espérance de vie et l’espérance de vie sans maladie, s’accentue. Par exemple, neuf personnes sur dix ont au moins un facteur de risque de maladie cardiovasculaire après 65 ans : surpoids, mauvais sommeil, inactivité, hypertension, etc. Comme l’espérance de vie augmente, ça fait plus d’années en moins bonne santé.

Notre mode de vie n’est pas optimal. Le stress, l’anxiété augmentent. C’est un fléau. Par ailleurs, les gens sont inactifs, ils ont des problèmes de sommeil, leur alimentation est négligée : on mange vite, du fast food ou des aliments ultra-transformés. Pourtant, l’information est là, disponible, mais on n’adopte pas toujours les actions nécessaires. On ne l’enseigne pas non plus à nos enfants. L’éducation physique devrait faire partie du cursus scolaire au quotidien, et il faudrait aussi enseigner les bases de la nutrition.

Par ailleurs, les gens se tournent vite vers la médication. La popularité de l’Ozempic en est un exemple. On souhaite perdre du poids, mais on ne s’attaque pas aux causes de ce surpoids. On ne fait pas grand-chose pour inciter les gens à changer leur mode de vie. Or, on évalue que près de la moitié des démences (soit 45 %) pourraient être évitées avec un mode de vie adéquat. Quatorze facteurs de risques modifiables (FRM) ont ainsi été identifiés.

Les quatorze facteurs de risques modifiables qui contribuent aux démences ont été identifiés par la professeure Gill Livingston, de l’University College de Londres.
(Alzheimer’s Disease International)

LCC : Bien des gens se disent : j’ai 65, 70 ans, il est trop tard pour moi, j’aurais dû commencer avant…

L.B. : Il n’est jamais trop tard, même si on sait que l’éducation (un facteur atténuant des démences) s’acquiert généralement jeune. Au contraire des troubles de l’audition, qui surviennent plus tard dans la vie. Bien des gens ne les prennent pas tant au sérieux, ou les camouflent, et pourtant, c’est un facteur associé à l’augmentation des risques de troubles cognitifs majeurs, ou de démence. Et bien sûr, la santé psychologique joue un rôle majeur : une personne sera inactive, car elle se sent un peu déprimée ou moins motivée, mais ça accentue les risques. On ne réalise pas que les facteurs de santé globale sont tous interreliés. La santé cardiaque et cérébrale, ça va ensemble. Ce qui est bon pour le cœur est bon pour le cerveau.

LCC : Votre laboratoire, axé sur la santé cognitive, est justement installé à l’Institut de cardiologie de Montréal. En quoi consiste vos travaux ?

L.B. : À l’aide de programmes de stimulation, on évalue l’impact des exercices sur la santé physique et cognitive. L’âge de nos participants varie entre 50 et 95 ans, avec une moyenne entre 68 et 70 ans. On les suit entre trois mois et un an. Ils peuvent avoir des déficits cognitifs légers, notés par leur entourage, et parfois souffrir d’anxiété, une condition qui peut avoir un impact sur la mémoire et être un prédicateur de démence. D’autres participants n’ont pas d’enjeux cognitifs, mais ils présentent des risques en raison de leur hypertension, diabète, etc. Nos programmes comportent des jeux de mémoire, sur les téléphones par exemple, qui améliorent le côté cognitif, notamment la vitesse psychomotrice, ainsi que des exercices physiques : vélo stationnaire, tapis roulant, renforcement musculaire, etc. Le mieux est la combinaison des deux.




À lire aussi :
L’exercice, bon pour le corps, certes, mais également pour le cerveau !


LCC : Que constatez-vous ?

L.B. : On voit des améliorations cliniquement significatives. Des participants qui ont des troubles cognitifs légers peuvent voir des améliorations après six mois d’entraînement, des différences au niveau de leur attention, de leur vigilance, de leur vitesse de réponses. Ils sont plus éveillés, et ce, après quelques semaines seulement. On voit aussi un impact sur la mémoire, même si ça prend plus de temps. À l’aide de biomarqueurs, nos recherches tentent de faire le lien entre les paramètres qui changent, tant sur le plan physique que cognitif et les effets sur le cerveau. Avec l’imagerie cérébrale, on peut mesurer les améliorations du flux sanguin et des structures du cerveau, comme l’hippocampe par exemple, qui joue un rôle clé dans la mémoire.


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L’entraînement physique, que les participants font trois fois par semaine, stimule la production de protéines qui favorisent la neuroplasticité. Quand les muscles travaillent, ils produisent et libèrent des myokines et d’autres exerkines. Ces molécules jouent un rôle important sur le métabolisme, l’inflammation, la santé osseuse et même l’humeur. Comme on le dit souvent, l’exercice est la pilule miracle pour la santé globale.

LCC : Bien des gens entreprennent des changements en profondeur de leur mode de vie, mais ces bonnes intentions ne tiennent pas toujours…

L.B. : Oui, et c’est dommage, car les effets positifs de l’entraînement disparaissent en un mois, un mois et demi. Et plus on vieillit, plus c’est rapide. Idéalement il faut choisir des activités qui s’intègrent facilement dans la routine quotidienne, je pense à la course, par exemple, un exercice très complet, très facile à faire, qui ne coûte pas cher. La marche rapide, aussi, mais l’idée est de suer un peu. Et de compléter avec des exercices pour accroître la force musculaire, et d’autres pour améliorer la posture et la mobilité. C’est un facteur important d’autonomie en vieillissant. La peur de chuter est une préoccupation pour plusieurs personnes âgées. Les exercices d’équilibre et de contrôle de la posture, comme le yoga, peuvent vraiment faire une énorme différence sur la santé et les habitudes de vie des personnes âgées.

La Conversation Canada

Louis Bherer ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Près de la moitié des démences seraient évitables grâce à nos habitudes de vie – dont l’exercice – https://theconversation.com/pres-de-la-moitie-des-demences-seraient-evitables-grace-a-nos-habitudes-de-vie-dont-lexercice-273763

How the U.S. withdrawal from WHO could affect global health powers and disease threats

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Mitchell L. Hammond, Assistant Professor of History, Western University

Hours after Donald Trump began his second term as United States president on Jan. 20, 2024, he signed an executive order to end American membership in the World Health Organization (WHO) after one year. This restarted a process that the first Trump administration initiated in July 2020 but was reversed by Joe Biden.

The withdrawal is set to take effect this week, although WHO officials may not officially accept it because the U.S. has unpaid dues from the last two years. No matter how events play out, the rift signals the start of an uncertain new era in global public health.

In the withdrawal announcement, the Trump administration cited the WHO’s “mishandling” of the COVID-19 pandemic and its inability to remain independent from the political influence of member states. This reflected Trump’s belief that the WHO leadership favoured China in early 2020 by praising its initial COVID response while faulting the U.S. for closing its border to Chinese travellers.

Other observers acknowledged the need for reform of the WHO’s cumbersome bureaucratic structure and criticized its inability to translate scientific research about COVID into useful guidance about masking and social distancing.

Such criticisms should not obscure the WHO’s enormous contribution to global health or how U.S. interests have been intertwined with its successes. Viewed historically, its great strength lies in sustained collaboration rather than short-term emergency response.

Vaccine diplomacy

In my research for Epidemics and the Modern World and its forthcoming revision, I have explored how the U.S. conducted “vaccine diplomacy” in developing countries. After the Second World War, the U.S. discerned an alignment between its strategic objectives and the soft power it gained from campaigns against epidemic diseases and childhood immunization programs.

For example, in 1967, American funding and leadership encouraged the start of the WHO’s Intensified Smallpox Eradication Program (ISEP) in African countries. This work involved collaboration with global rivals such as the Soviet Union, which contributed large quantities of freeze-dried smallpox vaccine.

When the ISEP began, at least 1.5 million people worldwide died from smallpox annually. Only 13 years later, the WHO declared the disease eradicated from nature in 1980. This success encouraged efforts to eradicate polio, which accelerated after 1988 when the WHO launched the Global Polio Eradication Initiative with support from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other partners.

Another important collaboration began in 1974 when the WHO and international partners launched the Expanded Program on Immunization to help prevent six childhood diseases (polio, diphtheria, pertussis, tuberculosis, measles and tetanus).

After 1985, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) invested billions of dollars in the program. Global childhood immunization levels reached 80 per cent by the early 1990s and continued to pay health dividends thereafter.

An analysis published last year in the Lancet estimated that, in the last 20 years, USAID-funded programs had helped prevent over 90 million deaths globally, including 30 million deaths among children.

Dismantling global influence

In public health, as in other arenas, the Trump administration has discarded participation in global alliances and instead sought bilateral agreements with other countries.

By July 2025, the Trump administration had formally dismantled USAID and cancelled funding for more than 80 per cent of its programs. Modelling conducted by Boston University epidemiologist Brooke Nichols suggests the lapsed programs have already caused roughly 750,000 deaths, mostly among children.




Read more:
International aid groups are dealing with the pain of slashed USAID funding by cutting staff, localizing and coordinating better


The U.S. has also already begun to cede influence over the objectives of global health programs. At the World Health Assembly in May 2025, the U.S. did not sign the WHO Pandemic Agreement intended to foster collaboration among governments, international agencies and philanthropies after the COVID-19 pandemic.

At that same meeting, China pledged to increase its voluntary contributions to the WHO to US$500 million over the next five years. Practically overnight, China will replace the U.S. as the WHO’s largest national contributor and undoubtedly steer priorities in global health programs towards its interests.

Disease monitoring and global threats

A more immediate concern is the disruption to surveillance for ongoing disease challenges and emergent threats.

Since 1952, the WHO’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System has provided a platform for monitoring of cases and the sharing of data and viral samples. Information from institutions in 131 countries contributes to recommendations for the composition of seasonal influenza virus vaccines. The U.S. may be left out of this global system, which will hamper efforts to match vaccines to the circulating strains of flu.

The WHO also dispatches response teams around the world for outbreaks of numerous diseases such as mpox, dengue, Ebola virus disease or Middle East respiratory syndrome. The exclusion of American scientists will hamper these efforts and diminish the nation’s capacity to protect itself.

The policy shift in the U.S. poses challenges for Canada both as its northern neighbour and as a strong financial supporter of the WHO. The recent spread of measles within Canada, which resulted in loss of the country’s elimination status, reminds us that disease outbreaks are inevitable but progress in public health is not.

Renewed support of the WHO and other multilateral efforts, although desirable, should be matched by expanded investment in programs for disease surveillance and research, vaccine procurement and public health communication. Federal and provincial governments and the Public Health Agency of Canada will all have roles to play as Canada faces disease threats in a rapidly changing world.

The Conversation

Mitchell L. Hammond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How the U.S. withdrawal from WHO could affect global health powers and disease threats – https://theconversation.com/how-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-who-could-affect-global-health-powers-and-disease-threats-273768

The world is in water bankruptcy, UN scientists report – here’s what that means

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Kaveh Madani, Director of the Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University

The world is now using so much fresh water amid the consequences of climate change that it has entered an era of water bankruptcy, with many regions no longer able to bounce back from frequent water shortages.

About 4 billion people – nearly half the global population – live with severe water scarcity for at least one month a year, without access to sufficient water to meet all of their needs. Many more people are seeing the consequences of water deficit: dry reservoirs, sinking cities, crop failures, water rationing and more frequent wildfires and dust storms in drying regions.

Water bankruptcy signs are everywhere, from Tehran, where droughts and unsustainable water use have depleted reservoirs the Iranian capital relies on, adding fuel to political tensions, to the U.S., where water demand has outstripped the supply in the Colorado River, a crucial source of drinking water and irrigation for seven states.

A woman fills containers with water from a well. cows are behind her on a dry landscape.
Droughts have made finding water for cattle more difficult and have led to widespread malnutrition in parts of Ethiopia in recent years. In 2022, UNICEF estimated that as many as 600,000 children would require treatment for severe malnutrition.
Demissew Bizuwerk/UNICEF Ethiopia, CC BY

Water bankruptcy is not just a metaphor for water deficit. It is a chronic condition that develops when a place uses more water than nature can reliably replace, and when the damage to the natural assets that store and filter that water, such as aquifers and wetlands, becomes hard to reverse.

A new study I led with the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health concludes that the world has now gone beyond temporary water crises. Many natural water systems are no longer able to return to their historical conditions. These systems are in a state of failure – water bankruptcy.

Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, explains the concept of “water bankruptcy.” TVRI World.

What water bankruptcy looks like in real life

In financial bankruptcy, the first warning signs often feel manageable: late payments, borrowed money and selling things you hoped to keep. Then the spiral tightens.

Water bankruptcy has similar stages.

At first, we pull a little more groundwater during dry years. We use bigger pumps and deeper wells. We transfer water from one basin to another. We drain wetlands and straighten rivers to make space for farms and cities.

Then the hidden costs show up. Lakes shrink year after year. Wells need to go deeper. Rivers that once flowed year-round turn seasonal. Salty water creeps into aquifers near the coast. The ground itself starts to sink.

How the Aral Sea shrank from 2000 to 2011. It was once closer to oval, covering the light-colored areas as recently as the 1980s, but overuse for agriculture by multiple countries drew it down.
NASA

That last one, subsidence, often surprises people. But it’s a signature of water bankruptcy. When groundwater is overpumped, the underground structure, which holds water almost like a sponge, can collapse. In Mexico City, land is sinking by about 10 inches (25 centimeters) per year. Once the pores become compacted, they can’t simply be refilled.

The Global Water Bankruptcy report, published on Jan. 20, 2026, documents how widespread this is becoming. Groundwater extraction has contributed to significant land subsidence over more than 2.3 million square miles (6 million square kilometers), including urban areas where close to 2 billion people live. Jakarta, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City are among the well-known examples in Asia.

A large sinkhole near farm fields.
A sinkhole in Turkey’s agricultural heartland shows how the landscape can collapse when more groundwater is extracted than nature can replenish.
Ekrem07, 2023, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

Agriculture is the world’s biggest water user, responsible for about 70% of the global freshwater withdrawals. When a region goes water bankrupt, farming becomes more difficult and more expensive. Farmers lose jobs, tensions rise and national security can be threatened.

About 3 billion people and more than half of global food production are concentrated in areas where water storage is already declining or unstable. More than 650,000 square miles (1.7 million square kilometers) of irrigated cropland are under high or very high water stress. That threatens the stability of food supplies around the world.

Rows with dozens of dead almond trees lie in an open field with equipment used to remove them.
In California, a severe drought and water shortage forced some farmers in 2021 to remove crops that require lots of irrigation, including almond trees.
Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Droughts are also increasing in duration, frequency and intensity as global temperatures rise. Over 1.8 billion people – nearly 1 in 4 humans – dealt with drought conditions at various times from 2022 to 2023.

These numbers translate into real problems: higher food prices, hydroelectricity shortages, health risks, unemployment, migration pressures, unrest and conflicts.

Is the world ready to cope with water-related national security risks? CNN.

How did we get here?

Every year, nature gives each region a water income, depositing rain and snow. Think of this like a checking account. This is how much water we receive each year to spend and share with nature.

When demand rises, we might borrow from our savings account. We take out more groundwater than will be replaced. We steal the share of water needed by nature and drain wetlands in the process. That can work for a while, just as debt can finance a wasteful lifestyle for a while.

The equivalent of bathtub rings show how low the water has dropped in this reservoir.
The exposed shoreline at Latyan Dam shows significantly low water levels near Tehran on Nov. 10, 2025. The reservoir, which supplies part of the capital’s drinking water, has seen a sharp decline due to prolonged drought and rising demand in the region.
Bahram/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Those long-term water sources are now disappearing. The world has lost more than 1.5 million square miles (4.1 million square kilometers) of natural wetlands over five decades. Wetlands don’t just hold water. They also clean it, buffer floods and support plants and wildlife.

Water quality is also declining. Pollution, saltwater intrusion and soil salinization can result in water that is too dirty and too salty to use, contributing to water bankruptcy.

A map shows most of Africa, South Asia and large parts of the Western U.S. have high levels of water-related risks.
Overall water-risk scores reflect the aggregate value of water quantity, water quality and regulatory and reputational risks to water supplies. Higher values indicate greater water-related risks.
United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, based on Aqueduct 4.0, CC BY

Climate change is exacerbating the situation by reducing precipitation in many areas of the world. Warming increases the water demand of crops and the need for electricity to pump more water. It also melts glaciers that store fresh water.

Despite these problems, nations continue to increase water withdrawals to support the expansion of cities, farmland, industries and now data centers.

Not all water basins and nations are water bankrupt, but basins are interconnected through trade, migration, climate and other key elements of nature. Water bankruptcy in one area will put more pressure on others and can increase local and international tensions.

What can be done?

Financial bankruptcy ends by transforming spending. Water bankruptcy needs the same approach:

  • Stop the bleeding: The first step is admitting the balance sheet is broken. That means setting water use limits that reflect how much water is actually available, rather than just drilling deeper and shifting the burden to the future.

  • Protect natural capital – not just the water: Protecting wetlands, restoring rivers, rebuilding soil health and managing groundwater recharge are not just nice-to-haves. They are essential to maintaining healthy water supplies, as is a stable climate.

A woman pushes a wheelbarrow with a contain filled with freshwater. The ocean is behind her in the view.
In small island states like the Maldives, sea-level rise threatens water supplies when salt water gets into underground aquifers, ruining wells.
UNDP Maldives 2021, CC BY
  • Use less, but do it fairly: Managing water demand has become unavoidable in many places, but water bankruptcy plans that cut supplies to the poor while protecting the powerful will fail. Serious approaches include social protections, support for farmers to transition to less water-intensive crops and systems, and investment in water efficiency.

  • Measure what matters: Many countries still manage water with partial information. Satellite remote sensing can monitor water supplies and trends, and provide early warnings about groundwater depletion, land subsidence, wetland loss, glacier retreat and water quality decline.

  • Plan for less water: The hardest part of bankruptcy is psychological. It forces us to let go of old baselines. Water bankruptcy requires redesigning cities, food systems and economies to live within new limits before those limits tighten further.

With water, as with finance, bankruptcy can be a turning point. Humanity can keep spending as if nature offers unlimited credit, or it can learn to live within its hydrological means.

The Conversation

Nothing to disclose.

ref. The world is in water bankruptcy, UN scientists report – here’s what that means – https://theconversation.com/the-world-is-in-water-bankruptcy-un-scientists-report-heres-what-that-means-273213

Why everyone should be a student of American studies

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sarah Trott, Senior Lecturer in American Studies and History, York St John University

The US president Donald Trump’s domestic and foreign policy has surprised much of the world, particularly US allies. It breaks with expectations about how the US has traditionally behaved.

This is mainly due to Trump’s speed and bluntness of decisions, his breaks with longstanding norms and his unpredictable style. But the capture of Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, and the mounting tension over America’s threatened occupation of Greenland are not isolated events. Neither is the government’s stance over immigration policy and citizenship. They’re rooted in longstanding struggles for power, justice and equality.

This is what makes the academic subject of American studies – in decline in UK universities – so relevant. American studies examines the nation’s history, literature, politics and social movements. By doing so, it helps contextualise current conflicts. Political polarisation, racial tensions, culture wars and debates over identity are placed within a broader historical framework.

During Trump’s presidencies, the US has projected a more muscular, transactional approach to global affairs. At the same time, it has also reconfigured its own traditional ideals. This shift has affected everything from security and trade to climate and technology.

Expanding our understanding of how American society, culture and politics works helps us anticipate instability. This could be through formal education like an American studies course or through building our own knowledge.

The American experiment

America has long understood itself as an “experiment” rather than a finished nation. It’s a political project constantly being tested, revised and debated. This idea is embodied in the US Constitution. It was designed not as a fixed blueprint but as a living framework, capable of change through amendments.

American history is rife with examples of how democracy has been an ongoing (and flawed) project, not a completed one. The nation’s history is marked by struggles over who gets to participate in the democratic process. This includes the exclusion of women, the LGBTQ+ community, African Americans and Native Americans, and the fight for voting rights and civil liberties. Understanding this history can help contextualise the current political landscape. It reminds us that the issues we face today are not entirely new.

American studies can’t fully explain the present without grounding students in the Constitution’s foundational architecture. This includes the separation of powers into equal branches, the system of checks and balances, and the assumption that no single person or institution should dominate the republic.

These principles have been challenged before. During the Civil War, the survival of constitutional democracy itself was at stake. During the McCarthy era – a period of persecution of people with left-wing views in the 1940s and 50s, led by US senator Joseph McCarthy – fear eroded civil liberties. Understanding what is occurring during the Trump administration therefore requires situating him not as an anomaly outside the system, but as a stress test within the American experiment. This stress reveals both the vulnerabilities and the resilience of the constitutional order.

Past and present

Trump’s recent capture of Maduro follows months of military campaigning and years of strained relationships. The possibility of a US-led invasion of Venezuela stems back to 2017, when Venezuela slid towards political unrest. The erosion of democracy, accusations of human rights violations and economic collapse led to humanitarian crises.

The US has a long history of interventions, peace operations and force-backed diplomacy that long predates this event, such as in Cuba (1961), the Dominican Republic (1965), Grenada (1983) and Panama (1989). These examples all fit into a long tradition of US intervention rooted in the Monroe Doctrine (1823) and later expanded by the Roosevelt Corollary (1904). Together, these doctrines supplied the ideological and legal justification for US involvement in Latin America.




Read more:
The ‘Donroe doctrine’: Maduro is the guinea pig for Donald Trump’s new world order


The mounting tension over America’s heavy strategic interest in Greenland echoes cold war anxieties. It is reminiscent of the great-power rivalry, strategic geography and militarisation that defined that era.

More significantly for global relations and stability, it potentially jeopardises the future of Nato. As The US is one of Nato’s principal architects, guarantors, and its military backbone, this is alarming. America’s historical association with the alliance has been defensive and leadership-driven.

The recent killing of Renee Good by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent in Minneapolis has refocused the debate over America’s immigration enforcement. The expansion in power and visibility of ICE fits into a long history of questioning “What is an American?”. It’s been a topic of debate since the 18th century.

Debates over immigration reflect deeper questions about national identity. The US vice-president, J.D. Vance, questioned New York City’s then-mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani’s American citizenship. He linked American identity to the American civil war. This raised a highly problematic – if not shocking – interpretation of “Americanness”.

By looking back at these historical moments, we can better understand the root causes of contemporary problems. In short, understanding America’s past is a vital tool for understanding and navigating the global present.

The Conversation

Sarah Trott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why everyone should be a student of American studies – https://theconversation.com/why-everyone-should-be-a-student-of-american-studies-273385

Why Trump is attacking the UK over Chagos Islands – and what it tells us about Britain’s place in the world

Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Brocklesby, Lecturer in History, Sheffield Hallam University

The US and UK maintain a joint naval base on Diego Garcia. zelvan/Shutterstock

The UK formally agreed to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius in May 2025. With the Trump administration’s explicit support, this move ended one of the longest-running territorial disputes in Britain’s remaining overseas territories.

The decision has been hailed by some as a long-overdue act of decolonisation, condemned by others as a strategic misstep. Unexpectedly, Donald Trump has now reignited the debate, branding the deal an “act of great stupidity”.

Why has this small chain of remote Indian Ocean islands become such a flashpoint?

The roots of the crisis lie in the dismantling of Britain’s empire in the 1960s. The Chagos archipelago was historically administered as part of colonial Mauritius, then a British colony. In 1965, three years before Mauritian independence, the UK separated Chagos from Mauritius to create a new territory: the British Indian Ocean Territory.

The creation of a new colony was an act shaped by cold war strategy. Mounting economic and strategic pressures in the late 1960s – including the devaluation of the pound in 1967 and the Labour government’s 1968 decision to withdraw British forces east of the Suez Canal – together curtailed Britain’s regional defence role in the Indian Ocean.

As Britain retreated “east of Suez”, it still wanted a secure military foothold in the Indian Ocean, particularly one that could be used jointly with the US. Diego Garcia, the largest island in Chagos, was ideal: isolated, strategically positioned between Africa and Southeast Asia, near major trade routes and capable of hosting a major naval and air facility.

The costs were met by the UK, with £3 million paid to Mauritius to cede the islands. But the price of this strategy was paid by the Chagossians. Between 1967 and the early 1970s, the islanders were forcibly removed from their homes and relocated to Mauritius and the Seychelles. Their removal was brutal: families were separated, livelihoods destroyed, and a distinct island community effectively erased.

Why the UK changed course

By the 21st century, Britain’s legal position was increasingly untenable. In 2019, the International Court of Justice ruled that the separation of the Chagos archipelago from Mauritius had been unlawful and that the UK should “terminate” its administration “as rapidly as possible”. The UN General Assembly backed this view with an overwhelming but non-binding vote.

Mauritius has consistently argued that the islands are a stolen part of its national territory, and therefore their decolonisation is incomplete. Over time, this case gained traction – Britain’s continued control of Chagos came to symbolise the unfinished business of empire.

By 2022, James Cleverly, then the UK’s foreign secretary, opened negotiations with Mauritius to “resolve all outstanding issues” over the archipelago. In October 2024, the Labour government under Keir Starmer concluded that a negotiated settlement was preferable to decades more legal wrangling.

The deal struck with Mauritius did two things: it transferred sovereignty over the archipelago to Mauritius, while securing a 99-year lease on Diego Garcia to allow the existing US-UK military base to continue operating at a cost of £3.4 billion.

On paper, this protected British (and by extension US) strategic interests in the region while satisfying the legal argument from the UN. However, while the deal was initially supported by the US, the deal has come under attack from other UK political parties, and increasingly jars with Trump’s vision of the world.

Why the islands matter strategically

The significance of Chagos is its location. Diego Garcia is one of the most important western military installations outside Europe and North America. It has been described as “an all but indispensable platform” for US interests in the Middle East and East Africa, with B-52 bombers recently used from the base to strike Yemen.

In an era of renewed great-power rivalry, the island’s value has increased. As China expands its naval presence in the Indian Ocean, western governments see Diego Garcia as a counterweight. However, critics of the deal have raised questions about the China-Mauritius relationship, arguing this would allow China a crucial foothold in the region.

For the UK, the base also underpins its claim to still be a meaningful military actor beyond Europe. For this reason, sovereignty transfer was carefully managed. Britain was not abandoning the base, but ensuring an arrangement that kept western military access intact while removing the colonial stain.

On one level, the Chagos deal looks like a model of decolonisation. Britain accepted international law, acknowledged a historic wrong and negotiated a settlement.

Yet this is happening at a moment when global politics is becoming more overtly imperial in style. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s assertive regional ambitions and Trump’s expansionist rhetoric about Greenland all suggest a world less governed by law and more by power.

In that context, Britain’s attempt to “do the right thing” over Chagos risks looking out of step. It reflects a rules-based worldview that is under pressure.

This creates a dilemma for Britain, which on January 20 vowed to “never compromise on national security”. The UK government defended the deal, saying it had to hand over the Chagos Islands because the military base was “under threat” from international legal action.

Britain is no longer an imperial sovereign with uncontested control over distant territories. It is a mid-sized power that must balance history, law, alliances and strategy.

This situation also exposes Britain’s continued dependence on the US for its global military clout and economic advantages. Without the US, Diego Garcia would be far less significant. The US substantially provides most of the base’s military capability. Trump’s criticism underscores a deeper vulnerability: Britain’s post-imperial identity remains tethered to American power.

The Conversation

James Brocklesby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why Trump is attacking the UK over Chagos Islands – and what it tells us about Britain’s place in the world – https://theconversation.com/why-trump-is-attacking-the-uk-over-chagos-islands-and-what-it-tells-us-about-britains-place-in-the-world-273939