Il y a assez de nourriture pour nourrir tout le monde. Alors, pourquoi l’insécurité alimentaire persiste ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Norrin Halilem, Full professor in Knowledge and Innovation Management, Science Populariser, Université Laval

La production alimentaire mondiale atteint des records. En 2025, la quantité de nourriture produite par habitant était à son niveau le plus élevé jamais enregistré, soutenue par une hausse plus rapide que la croissance démographique au cours des dernières décennies. Selon le Programme alimentaire mondial, cette nourriture produite pourrait suffire à nourrir chaque enfant, femme et homme sur Terre.


Pourtant, près de 2,3 milliards de personnes ont connu en 2024 une forme d’insécurité alimentaire, allant de la faim chronique à un accès limité à une alimentation nutritive et de qualité, selon l’Organisation des Nations unies pour l’alimentation et l’agriculture (FAO). Bien que souvent associée aux pays en développement, cette situation est également prévalente dans de nombreux pays développés.

Ainsi, au Canada, près de 7 millions de personnes (17 %) vivent dans l’incertitude quotidienne quant à leur prochain repas. En Europe, l’insécurité alimentaire touche entre 5 et 20 % de la population. Aux États-Unis, malgré plusieurs programmes fédéraux, 46 millions de personnes, soit 13 %, dépendent chaque année des banques alimentaires pour nourrir leurs familles.

La FAO estime que le quart des populations dans les Caraïbes et en Amérique latine font face à une insécurité alimentaire sévère à modérée, plus du tiers en Asie centrale, du Sud et de l’Ouest et en Afrique du Nord, la moitié en Océanie (hors Australie et Nouvelle-Zélande) et les deux-tiers en Afrique subsaharienne.

Des effets dévastateurs sur la santé physique et mentale

L’objectif « Faim zéro » fixé pour 2030 par les Nations unies semble désormais hors de portée. Les estimations actuelles suggèrent qu’au moins 600 millions de personnes devraient connaître encore la faim en 2030, ce qui constituerait un échec mondial majeur par rapport aux ambitions déclarées.

L’insécurité alimentaire est considérée comme une cause profonde de nombreux autres problèmes, puisqu’elle entraîne des effets dévastateurs sur la santé physique et mentale des populations touchées et même sur la stabilité des pays.

Les personnes en situation d’insécurité alimentaire présentent des taux plus élevés d’obésité, de diabète, d’hypertension et de troubles mentaux, créant un cercle vicieux qui entraîne des défis sociaux et sanitaires coûteux.

Professeur à l’Université Laval en gestion des connaissances et de l’innovation, mes travaux de recherche portent sur les solutions de réduction de la pauvreté. Avec le chercheur en développement durable Kouassi Marius Honoré Aké, nous analysons le contraste entre l’abondance de la production alimentaire mondiale et la persistance de l’insécurité alimentaire. Nous n’abordons pas dans cet article les causes des famines causées par les guerres, qui répondent à d’autres logiques.

Des causes multiples, des approches fragmentées

L’insécurité alimentaire est souvent réduite à une question de pauvreté, alors que ses causes sont multiples et interconnectées : inégalités de revenus, précarité de l’emploi, faible niveau d’éducation, complexité administrative et restrictions budgétaires.

De plus, l’approche fragmentée des interventions, avec des acteurs politiques et des ONG qui opèrent en silos, complique la situation. La plupart des programmes se concentrent sur les symptômes sans réellement s’attaquer aux causes structurelles.

Un gaspillage éhonté

Alors que l’insécurité alimentaire concerne des millions de personnes, le gaspillage alimentaire atteint des niveaux difficiles à justifier. Ainsi, selon la FAO, plus de 1,3 milliard de tonnes de nourriture sont gaspillées chaque année dans le monde, soit près du tiers de la production alimentaire. Une étude exhaustive, basée sur 54 recherches scientifiques, réalisée par la chercheuse allemande Elisa Uhlig et des experts en durabilité en 2025, indique que la nourriture est surtout gâchée au début et à la fin du processus.

Plus précisément, selon d’autres données utilisées par un groupe de chercheurs suédois sur les questions d’agriculture durable et par la FAO, c’est 40 % de la nourriture qui est principalement gâchée lors de la production dans les pays en développement, tandis qu’un pourcentage similaire l’est durant les phases de distribution, de mise en marché et de consommation dans les pays développés.

Ainsi, chaque jour, des entreprises agroalimentaires et des réseaux de distribution éliminent des tonnes de nourriture encore consommable pour des raisons techniques, esthétiques, logistiques ou commerciales.

Facteur aggravant : ces grandes entreprises transforment leurs déchets et leurs activités d’aide alimentaire en stratégie de relations publiques et en avantages fiscaux. Certaines convertissent leurs excédents en dons alimentaires, tout en évitant les coûts liés à la gestion des déchets. Ainsi, l’aide alimentaire devient un outil de communication qui dissimule mal les responsabilités du secteur privé dans la reproduction des inégalités.

L’échec des programmes gouvernementaux et les contradictions du secteur privé

Face à ces limites institutionnelles et à ces incohérences de marché, de nouvelles approches voient le jour. Celles-ci s’articulent autour de trois dimensions : une utilisation plus efficace des ressources, une amélioration de la qualité nutritionnelle et un renforcement des capacités des populations touchées.

Il ne s’agit plus seulement d’augmenter la production alimentaire, mais de repenser les systèmes alimentaires pour les rendre plus équitables, durables et résilients. Ces solutions intègrent donc la justice sociale, la durabilité environnementale et la viabilité économique.

Certaines banques alimentaires élargissent d’ailleurs leur mission. C’est le cas de la Los Angeles Regional Food Bank, aux États-Unis, du réseau Right to Food, au Canada, ou de l’Applied Nutrition Project, au Kenya.

Ces banques ne se contentent plus de distribuer des denrées, mais proposent également des formations d’accompagnement budgétaire ou culinaire, des conseils en droits sociaux, des jardins communautaires et des programmes d’insertion professionnelle. L’objectif est de réduire la dépendance à l’aide alimentaire plutôt que de l’entretenir.

Par ailleurs, la technologie ouvre de nouvelles opportunités. Avec des applications comme Too Good To Go, plus de 150 millions de repas sont sauvés de la poubelle chaque année et proposés à prix réduit. Cette approche illustre comment l’innovation peut aussi connecter l’abondance au besoin et réduire le gaspillage.


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Le développement de partenariats stratégiques est essentiel pour réduire l’insécurité alimentaire. Des partenariats intersectoriels favorisent la création de synergies entre les producteurs, les organismes communautaires, les entreprises et les consommateurs finaux. En mobilisant les ressources et les compétences, ces collaborations renforcent l’efficacité des initiatives contre la faim.

L’insécurité alimentaire n’est pas une fatalité, mais le symptôme d’inégalités structurelles qui nécessitent des solutions systémiques.

La Conversation Canada

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. Il y a assez de nourriture pour nourrir tout le monde. Alors, pourquoi l’insécurité alimentaire persiste ? – https://theconversation.com/il-y-a-assez-de-nourriture-pour-nourrir-tout-le-monde-alors-pourquoi-linsecurite-alimentaire-persiste-270221

TikTok’s period scooping trend shows how little we still understand about menstruation

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sally King, Visiting Fellow in Menstrual Physiology, King’s College London

Doro Guzenda/Shutterstock

Social media has a habit of turning health topics into viral trends. The latest example is “period scooping”, a term circulating widely on TikTok that promises a way to manage or even shorten menstruation.

The idea sounds intriguing, even empowering. In reality, it reveals how much confusion still surrounds periods.

The term “period scooping” is being used to describe several different practices. One involves consciously contracting pelvic floor muscles while on the toilet or in the shower to push out menstrual fluid that has collected in the vaginal canal. This is not new and it is not dangerous. Many people have discovered it themselves over time. But it does not shorten a period, it merely reduces its flow for a short while. Menstruation is the shedding of the womb lining, a process driven by hormonal changes. What happens in the vaginal canal cannot stop or speed that up.

More concerning are posts that frame “scooping” as washing out the vagina with water, a shower head or soap. This is essentially douching, a practice that research has repeatedly linked to infections such as bacterial vaginosis and thrush, and to more serious complications like pelvic inflammatory disease and premature births. The vagina maintains its own protective environment, including an acidic pH and a balance of beneficial bacteria. Introducing water or soap disrupts this system and increases the risk of infection.




Read more:
Just don’t douche – what your vaginal biome can tell you about your health and pregnancy


There are also videos encouraging people to insert fingers or pipettes to remove menstrual fluid. Again, this is not a new behaviour but it is unnecessary and carries risks if fingers or pipettes are not clean, or products such as hand moisturiser or soap are introduced internally.

What is striking is that these trends are emerging at a time when there are more effective menstrual products than ever. Menstrual cups, period underwear and reusable pads allow people to manage heavy bleeding, exercise and even swim without leaking. The persistence of “hacks” suggests a gap in education rather than a lack of options.

The same goes for other viral claims. Some influencers promote drinks made with lime juice, salt or spices as a way to shorten periods. This is physiologically impossible and so, unsurprisingly, there is no scientific evidence supporting such claims.

The menstrual cycle is governed by hormonal signals between the brain and ovaries over an average of four week cycles. Food and drink cannot abruptly interrupt this process. A healthy diet can reduce inflammation over time and may help with symptoms such as pain and heavy bleeding, but no food, drink or even medication can stop a period immediately.

Similarly, some social media influencers may claim that you must have a monthly period to stay healthy. This is misleading. Hormonal contraception can safely reduce blood loss and pain, with some methods eventually stopping periods for several months or years. For some people, particularly those with anaemia or endometriosis, this can be extremely beneficial. Periods can be a sign of overall health in certain contexts (elite sports training, or in recovery from anorexia or other health conditions), but they are not biologically required every month.

Another trend seems to take a more positive approach, celebrating menstrual blood as something powerful and even applying it to the skin as a face mask. Menstrual fluid does contain stem cells, and scientists are studying them for potential use in regenerative medicine. The womb sheds and rebuilds tissue every cycle without scarring, a process that fascinates researchers. But rubbing menstrual fluid directly onto the skin cannot deliver anti-ageing effects. The skin acts as a barrier, so these cells cannot penetrate to where they would have any biological impact.

Where this research does hold real promise is in healthcare. Menstrual fluid may eventually help diagnose conditions such as endometriosis or cervical cancer through simple testing. Biobanks are already collecting samples to support this work. Scientists are also exploring how these unique stem cells might aid wound healing or tissue repair. These developments are still in early stages, but they highlight how valuable menstrual fluid could be if not subject to societal taboos and stigma.

Menstruation itself is rare among mammals. Only about 1.6% of species experience it, among them some primates, a few bats, the spiny mouse and the elephant shrew. In humans, menstruation is thought to be linked to a protective reproductive strategy. The uterine lining prepares itself in advance for pregnancy and may help filter out embryos that implant abnormally or invade too aggressively. If fertilisation does not occur, that lining is shed as menstruation. Yet despite its biological significance, it remains surrounded by myths and misinformation.

Menstrual ignorance and stigma shapes behaviour. Feelings of shame about smell, discharge or infection can push people toward harmful practices like douching. Lack of education means many learn about their bodies through social media rather than reliable sources. Even medical training has historically paid limited attention to menstrual health.




Read more:
Menstrual health literacy is alarmingly low – what you don’t know can harm you


Better education from an early age would change this. Teaching children that menstruation is normal, not something secret or shameful, would help dismantle myths before they take hold. It would also make it easier for people to seek medical advice when they need it.

Social media can play a positive role by opening conversations and challenging taboos. But it should not be the primary source of health information. Many viral trends are designed to capture attention or sell products, rather than provide evidence based guidance.

Menstruation is not dirty, and it is not a problem to be hacked. It is a protective biological process that still holds great scientific potential. Treating it as normal rather than something weird or shocking would be a better starting point than most viral trends.


Strange Health is hosted by Katie Edwards and Dan Baumgardt. The executive producer is Gemma Ware, with video and sound editing for this episode by Anouk Millet. Artwork by Alice Mason.

If you’ve got a question about a viral trend or video you’ve seen and you’d like us to delve into the science behind it in a future episode, please email us at strangehealth@theconversation.com.

Listen to Strange Health via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here. A transcript is available via the Apple Podcasts or Spotify apps.

The Conversation

Sally King is the founder of Menstrual Matters, a non-profit online platform about menstrual health and associated rights issues. She previously received funding from the ESRC for her doctoral research into PMS. She is a visiting fellow in menstrual physiology at King’s College London and an unpaid elected board member of the Society for Menstrual Cycle Research (SMCR).

ref. TikTok’s period scooping trend shows how little we still understand about menstruation – https://theconversation.com/tiktoks-period-scooping-trend-shows-how-little-we-still-understand-about-menstruation-277075

Gifts from top 50 US philanthropists jumped to $22.4B in 2025 − Mike Bloomberg, Bill Gates and the estate of Paul Allen lead a list of the biggest givers

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By David Campbell, Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New York

Home Depot co-founder Arthur Blank, one of the top 50 donors of 2025, talks with his son Josh Blank. Kara Durrette/Getty Images

The 50 American individuals and couples who gave or pledged the most to charity in 2025 committed US$22.4 billion to foundations, universities, hospitals and more. That total was 35% above an inflation-adjusted $16.6 billion in 2024, according to the Chronicle of Philanthropy’s latest annual tally of these donations.

Media entrepreneur and former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg led the Chronicle’s Philanthropy 50 list, followed by Microsoft co-founders Bill Gates and Paul Allen. Allen died in 2018, but his estate is still being settled.

The Conversation U.S. asked David Campbell, Lindsey McDougle and Hans Peter Schmitz, three scholars of philanthropy and nonprofits, to assess the significance of these gifts and to consider what they indicate about the state of charitable giving in the United States.

What trends stand out overall?

Schmitz: Higher education, hospitals, medical research, foundations and donor-advised funds – which serve as savings accounts reserved for charitable giving – drew the biggest gifts in 2025. The education and medical fields are a perennial favorite of high-dollar donors. To a degree, these preferences for supporting education and health were first expressed by Andrew Carnegie in his 1889 essay, “The Gospel of Wealth,” in which he famously claimed that “the man who dies rich dies disgraced.”

Campbell: This list changes little from year to year. Of this year’s top 20 donors, 16 have appeared at least one other time over the past five years. Six others have also made this list at least two other times since 2021. For the third year in a row, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is at the top of the list. He gave away over $4 billion in 2025, over $500 million more than the next highest donor.

Half of these 22 repeat top-50 givers have signed The Giving Pledge, in which they made a public commitment “to give the majority of their wealth to charitable causes in their lifetime or wills.” Their appearance on the list shows that they are making at least some progress toward that commitment.

How they give their money hasn’t changed much either. A dozen of the 22 who make this list year after year regularly fund the same causes – often their own family foundations. Donations to foundations increase the amount of money those philanthropic institutions may give away in the future, but that money might not be disbursed anytime soon. By law, foundations only have to donate or spend 5% of the money they possess every year.

McDougle: The top 50 donors gave more in 2025 than they had since 2021. But this growth is highly concentrated. Mike Bloomberg alone accounts for 19% of the $22.4 billion they gave in 2025, and the top 10 accounted for nearly three-quarters of what all 50 gave to charity.

This pattern reflects a broader reality: A small number of ultra-wealthy individuals increasingly dominate American philanthropy. This concentration is raising questions about democratic accountability, including this one: Whose priorities define the public good?

In my opinion, this kind of concentration can skew philanthropic priorities. Decisions about education, health care, climate policy and democracy can increasingly become influenced not through public deliberation, but through the discretionary choices of a few members of a financial elite.

What surprises you about the biggest donors?

Schmitz: I find it odd that MacKenzie Scott isn’t on this list. She says she gave $7.1 billion in 2025. If she had met the Chronicle of Philanthropy’s criteria, that would have landed her in first place by far. Unfortunately, the Chronicle says that MacKenzie Scott has never provided sufficient information about her generosity since becoming a major donor on her own, following her 2019 divorce from Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. And that leaves her off the list year after year.

Campbell: The Trump administration’s defunding of the U.S. Agency for International Development is among the most significant events of 2025. When it began, some philanthropy scholars wondered whether wealthy donors would replace at least a portion of the lost funds.

One example of that happening: Jacklyn and Miguel Bezos, the parents of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, pledged up to $500 million to UNICEF, the United Nations humanitarian relief organization. No other donors on this list clearly made gifts for international development or foreign aid such a high priority. However, some of these donors’ foundations, notably the Gates Foundation, do support those efforts.

Similarly, it’s unclear to what extent these donors are responding to the huge funding cuts to research that the Trump administration made in 2025.

Several of them have supported medical research in the past and continued to do in 2025. Sergey Brin gave the Michael J. Fox Foundation $50 million for Parkinson’s disease research, a continuation of his past commitment to that organization. Phil and Penny Knight, the founder of Nike and his wife, announced plans to give $2 billion to the Oregon Health & Science University’s Knight Cancer Institute.

McDougle: I think it’s striking that there are no women who made this year’s Philanthropy 50 list on their own. The women listed appear only as part of a married couple, as members of a family, or within joint giving structures that include a male donor. By contrast, there are 24 male donors listed on their own.

Last year’s list included multiple women as sole donors, including two in the top 10.

The absence of women listed here who gave independently of men mirrors broader wealth disparities in the U.S.: About 86% of U.S. billionaires are men, according to the Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires list.

What concerns do you have?

Schmitz: The list excludes donors like MacKenzie Scott, but includes other very rich donors with serious ethical issues. Businessman Denny Sanford is one example. He signed the Giving Pledge in 2010. He was removed from it in 2023 after being investigated for the alleged possession of child pornography. South Dakota prosecutors ultimately declined to levy charges against the philanthropist, who ranked 14th among the top 50 donors of 2025.

The reputation of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, one of the world’s biggest donors, is also getting tarnished. In February 2026, he apologized to the staff of the Gates Foundation for his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

I suggest that the Chronicle of Philanthropy take ethically problematic behavior into consideration when it composes this annual list.

Campbell: It’s a bit surprising to see that only 19 of the top 50 donors are also on the Forbes 400, which lists the nation’s richest people. The wealthiest Americans have the most to give, and I would have expected to see more of them among the top 50 givers as well. Instead, what we see is that philanthropy is a higher and consistent priority more for some than for others, which I find disappointing.

I would like to see more members of the Forbes 400 on this list next year.

What do you expect to see in 2026 and beyond?

Campbell: We are living in a politically volatile moment, with high levels of polarization and increased concerns about democratic backsliding in the United States.

Several of these donors have made strengthening democracy a high priority, including Pierre and Pam Omidyar, and Home Depot co-founder Arthur Blank, through his family foundation. However, I don’t believe that this issue has been a high enough priority among the biggest givers in recent years. I would think that this kind of giving could increase in 2026.

McDougle: Another factor is demographic. Most of the top 50 donors are in their 60s or older. In the years ahead, philanthropy is likely to be influenced by a significant intergenerational transfer of wealth. Philanthropy scholars and consultants estimate that tens of trillions of dollars will transfer from older Americans to their younger heirs over the coming decades.

That shift could have substantial implications for large-scale giving. At the same time, it remains unclear whether the top 50 donors under 60 will be inclined to establish foundations. Surveys of very wealthy families suggest that younger donors often express different priorities than older ones.

Whether those preferences will reshape elite philanthropy remains an open question.

The Conversation

David Campbell is chair of the Conrad and Virginia Klee Foundation Board.

Lindsey McDougle is president-elect of the Association for Research on Nonprofit Organizations and Voluntary Action (ARNOVA).

Hans Peter Schmitz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Gifts from top 50 US philanthropists jumped to $22.4B in 2025 − Mike Bloomberg, Bill Gates and the estate of Paul Allen lead a list of the biggest givers – https://theconversation.com/gifts-from-top-50-us-philanthropists-jumped-to-22-4b-in-2025-mike-bloomberg-bill-gates-and-the-estate-of-paul-allen-lead-a-list-of-the-biggest-givers-276825

Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a master in the political craft of doubt – a linguist’s take

Source: The Conversation – France – By Fatima-Zahra Aklalouch, Associate Professor, Université Paris Cité

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is not just a controversial politician. There is more to him than meets the eye: he is a figure who has turned suspicion into a political identity, and who has learned how to weaponize the language of transparency in order to erode confidence in Public health itself.

His rise to power is not only a story about vaccines. It is a story about how distrust is produced. Sentence by sentence, metaphor by metaphor, until uncertainty feels like common sense.

Kennedy’s biography begins with inherited authority. Born in 1954, the nephew of John F. Kennedy and the son of Robert F. Kennedy, he carries a name that still resonates with American idealism. Yet, as French newspaper Le Monde notes, he has increasingly become associated with conspiracy-inflected activism and vaccine skepticism, an uneasy fusion of dynasty and dissidence.

For decades, Kennedy’s public career was not centred on medicine but on environmental law. He built credibility as an environmental lawyer and activist battling corporate polluters, suing industries accused of poisoning rivers and communities. This period matters because it provided the moral template that continues to shape his rhetoric. Powerful industries harm the innocent, regulators fail, and the lone crusader exposes what has been hidden.

The problem is that Kennedy later imported this “template” and applied it to public health, treating vaccines less as medical tools than as symbols of institutional corruption.

The “RFK Jr. rhetoric” in the making

The pivot began in the mid-2000s, when Kennedy increasingly started promoting claims about vaccine safety. He became chairman of Children’s Health Defense, one of the most influential organizations in the American anti-vaccine ecosystem. Fact-checkers note that he repeatedly advanced debunked links between vaccines and autism, despite overwhelming scientific evidence rejecting them.

The language of doubt: reading between the lines

What distinguishes Kennedy is not simply his conclusions, but his rhetorical method. He rarely presents himself as an opponent of vaccination outright. Instead, he constructs a linguistic shield of moderation:

“I am pro-safety… I am not anti-vaccine… All of my kids are vaccinated.”

This disclaimer is not incidental. It is strategic. By denying the label while sustaining suspicion, Kennedy makes doubt appear reasonable, even responsible. The effect is to normalise distrust without ever owning its implications.

During the Coronavirus pandemic, this rhetoric expanded dramatically. Nature described Kennedy as one of the most prominent spreaders of vaccine misinformation in the United States. NPR similarly highlighted how he amplified distrust toward public health institutions during the crisis.

His language in this period reveals a consistent populist grammar of ordinary citizens and parents versus captured elites. Vaccination becomes not a medical intervention but a symbol of coercion. “Submit to the government, do what you’re told,” he says, lamenting that “there is no discussion.”

Pitching Science against ‘truth seeking’

This language is politically potent precisely because it shifts the terrain. The debate is no longer about epidemiology, but it is about freedom, betrayal, and moral agency. Science becomes not a method but an institution to be distrusted.

Kennedy’s discourse is sustained by a careful cultivation of uncertainty. “There isn’t proof,” he concedes, then pivots, “we don’t know what causes it yet, so shouldn’t we be open-minded?” The move is subtle – consensus is reshaped as premature closure, scepticism as intellectual virtue.

At times, Kennedy goes further, redefining science itself. “Science doesn’t say anything,” he declares. “Science is a dispute.” It is an epistemic manoeuvre with serious consequences. If science is merely an endless argument, then no evidence can ever fully settle the question. Doubt becomes permanent.

To legitimize dissent, Kennedy often relies on moral storytelling rather than rigorous methodology. He invokes Francis Kelsey, the FDA scientist who resisted thalidomide approval, celebrating her because she “questioned science.” The implicit suggestion is clear: today’s dissident may be tomorrow’s hero. But the analogy is misleading. Questioning regulatory negligence is not equivalent to undermining decades of vaccine evidence.

When challenged directly, Kennedy often replaces consensus with competing “alternative” studies, promising that if wrong he will “publicly apologise,” while insisting “there are other studies as well.” Closure is endlessly deferred and the conversation is designed never to end.

The most consequential shift, however, is that Kennedy’s rhetoric has begun to reshape institutions. Lawmakers accused him of destabilising vaccine governance after he dismissed all 17 members of a major advisory committee, calling the move unprecedented and reckless.

The American Public Health Association warned that his record reflects misinformation and poor scientific judgment. The Lancet went further, arguing that his influence could worsen global vaccine hesitancy, citing Samoa’s measles outbreak as a deadly example of mistrust amplified into catastrophe.

Kennedy does not operate alone. Around him exists an ecosystem that portrays him as a persecuted truth-teller. US Senator Elizabeth Warren’s report describes his leadership as a systematic pattern of anti-vaccine disruption. What emerges is not merely individual skepticism, but a movement in which mistrust is foundational and transparency becomes a political weapon.

The deeper question RFK Jr. forces upon public life is not whether vaccines are safe – a matter repeatedly settled by scientific evidence – but whether democratic societies can survive the strategic erosion of shared reality.

Where will RFK Jr.’s voice lead to?

At some point, the story stops being about one man’s claims and becomes about the culture that allows those claims to flourish.

How does doubt become identity? How does questioning become a form of power?

And what happens when the language of science is transformed into a battlefield rather than a method?

In such a world, science stops functioning as a common tool for establishing evidence. Instead, it becomes a rhetorical terrain. Competing actors claim the authority of science, each presenting their own version of it. The result is not clarity but permanent conflict, where the word itself becomes ammunition in the fight over who gets to define reality.

Kennedy began as an environmental crusader. He has become a Public health dissident. He is now something more troubling: a political actor whose influence lies not in solving uncertainty, but in sustaining it.

Perhaps the most urgent question is not what Robert F. Kennedy Jr. believes. It is what his rhetoric makes possible.

The Conversation

Fatima-Zahra Aklalouch ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a master in the political craft of doubt – a linguist’s take – https://theconversation.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-a-master-in-the-political-craft-of-doubt-a-linguists-take-276454

Nigeria’s crypto boom isn’t just about technology – trust plays a role in the local gadget trade with China

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Atta Addo, Senior Lecturer in Digital Innovation and Entrepreneurship, University of Surrey

On a humid afternoon in Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos, a young trader in electronics pulls out his phone and opens Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency trading platform by trading volume. He’s not monitoring the Bitcoin market or chasing the next crypto craze. He’s paying a supplier in the Chinese port city of Guangzhou for 500 smartphones.

Like numerous other traders at the Lagos Computer Village, he has a Binance digital wallet to store, send and receive cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar (USDT). Within minutes, his payment lands in China. His supplier confirms. The phones will ship tomorrow.

Five years ago, this transaction would have been nearly impossible. The Lagos phone buyer would have had to queue at the nearby commercial bank; fill out forms for foreign exchange; and wait as long as 7-21 days for clearance. On top of that, there was no guarantee of foreign exchange approval being granted. The other alternative was turning to the black markets, which attract exorbitant rates.

Now? Welcome to Nigeria’s quiet cryptocurrency revolution. He taps his screen a few times. Done.

Developing countries are recording high cryptocurrency adoption rates surpassing more advanced economies. Nigeria stands out, with one of the highest rates of crypto adoption globally. But the reasons aren’t clear.




Read more:
Crypto countries: Nigeria and El Salvador’s opposing journeys into digital currencies – podcast


The focus of my scholarly research is digital innovation and entrepreneurship. My co-researcher and I sought to examine cryptocurrency adoption and diffusion and its use for cross-border payments in the Nigerian context. We took a case study approach. Data collection involved two rounds of interviews with retailers from Nigeria, suppliers from China, informal exchangers, crypto brokers, and mediators.

One might think cryptocurrency’s appeal lies in its technology: decentralisation, the fact that it cannot be altered once recorded, all that. But our research found something else. Crypto works in Nigeria because of human networks of trust.

We have evidence to suggest that crypto adoption and diffusion in this context occurs through:

  • a reinforcing process of technology transformation, adoption and use

  • a strong coalition of the interests of diverse actors

  • a dynamic relationship between the technical elements of crypto and contextual political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental influences.

Insights from the study might be useful for addressing adoption challenges and designing inclusive financial systems in similar contexts.

Meet the crypto brokers

Located in the capital of Lagos State, south-western Nigeria, the Computer Village hosts over 5,000 informal micro, small and medium enterprises. It is billed as Africa’s largest market for information and communication technology accessories. This was the focal point of our case study.

We interviewed retailers importing from China, the crypto brokers who help them, Chinese suppliers, and the network of intermediaries who make it all work. What emerged was a sophisticated parallel financial system processing millions monthly, built entirely outside traditional banking. Between July 2023 and June 2024, Nigeria is estimated to have processed US$59 billion in crypto transaction value, up to 85% of it from retail trade.

Here’s how it works in three quick steps lasting less than an hour:

  • A crypto broker sits in a small office near the market. Retailers call in with the local currency, naira.

  • The naira is converted into USDT using peer-to-peer exchanges; the stablecoin is sent to contacts in China.

  • These Chinese traders convert USDT to yuan and pay the supplier directly.

One broker told us:

Retailers don’t need to understand blockchain. That’s my job. They just know their supplier gets paid fast, and they save money.

Crypto brokers charge lower fees than banks or Western Union. But speed matters even more than cost. In Nigeria’s volatile economy, prices can shift overnight. A delayed payment might mean your supplier raises prices or your goods arrive after competitors have restocked. Crypto eliminates that risk.

These brokers didn’t emerge from fintech accelerators or venture capital. Many were young tech-savvy relatives of traders who saw a problem and built a solution. They positioned themselves as indispensable – the only way to get past Nigeria’s restricted financial system and and do global trade.

Brokers guarantee payments personally. If something goes wrong, they cover losses from their own pockets to maintain reputation. One broker told us he absorbed a ₦2 million loss (about US$2,500) when a Chinese intermediary disappeared with funds. Retailers recommend brokers to fellow traders in the tight-knit market community. Chinese crypto traders work only with verified contacts, often through elaborate referral systems.

Cryptocurrency here doesn’t replace human relationships. It’s technology that enables and extends existing trust networks, letting them operate at global scale.

The infrastructure of resilience

The system relies on more than just brokers and goodwill. Stablecoins like USDT solve volatility. Mobile wallets work on basic smartphones. QR codes enable transactions even when internet is patchy. Peer-to-peer exchanges bypass bank restrictions legally. Nigeria’s central bank had banned banks from crypto transactions since 2021 but reversed its decision in 2023, citing global regulatory trends.

When suppliers in China initially refused to accept cryptocurrency, brokers enrolled Chinese crypto traders as intermediaries. These traders buy USDT from Nigerian brokers (often at slight discounts, giving them profit), convert it to yuan, and pay suppliers through conventional Chinese banking. The supplier never touches crypto. They just receive payment.




Read more:
Why do identical informal businesses set up side by side? It’s a survival tactic – Kenya study


This is innovation through adaptation. It is not building a perfect system from scratch, but cobbling together solutions from available pieces until something works.

Computer Village itself plays a role. Concentrated markets create information flow. Success stories spread fast. A trader mentions his broker completed a payment in 20 minutes, and suddenly five more retailers want introductions. Physical proximity accelerates network growth in ways digital advertising never could.

What happens when the state pushes back

In 2021, Nigeria’s central bank ordered commercial banks to close accounts dealing with cryptocurrency. The government worried about speculation, money laundering and capital flight. This sounded the death knell for crypto in Nigeria.




Read more:
Digital trade protocol for Africa: why it matters, what’s in it and what’s still missing


Instead, the network adapted. Brokers shifted to peer-to-peer platforms. Over-the-counter exchangers (informal traders who swap crypto for cash) expanded operations. Transaction volumes continued to grow.

What this means for Africa and beyond

Nigeria isn’t alone. Similar patterns appear across developing economies – Kenya, Ghana, Vietnam, India. Wherever formal financial systems strain under inflation, currency controls or institutional weakness, cryptocurrency fills gaps.




Read more:
Stablecoins are gaining ground as digital currency in Africa: how to avoid risks


This isn’t speculation. Traders are using stablecoins as dollar-equivalent tokens that move faster and cheaper than wire transfers.

It’s also not “banking the unbanked” in the usual sense. Many of these traders have bank accounts. Banks just can’t provide what they need: rapid, affordable, reliable cross-border payments.

For policymakers, the lesson should be humbling. You can’t ban away an innovation that solves real problems. When formal institutions fail to serve economic needs, informal systems emerge. The question is whether governments will learn from these systems or simply fight them.

Mayowa Joy David contributed to the research on which this article is based.

The Conversation

Atta Addo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Nigeria’s crypto boom isn’t just about technology – trust plays a role in the local gadget trade with China – https://theconversation.com/nigerias-crypto-boom-isnt-just-about-technology-trust-plays-a-role-in-the-local-gadget-trade-with-china-268319

China in Africa: investment and trade work well when there’s strong oversight, and badly when there isn’t

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Vincent Tawiah, Assistant Professor in International Financial Reporting, Dublin City University

China’s economic footprint in Africa has grown fast over the last two decades. Across the continent, Chinese-backed mines, oilfields, railways and industrial zones have gone from being ambitious projects to central pillars of national development plans.

This has been made possible by over US$181 billion in infrastructure loans and about US$50 billion in foreign direct investment.

The China-Africa relationship is often portrayed as one of two things: either a threat to sovereignty or a development opportunity.

But the findings in a recent paper suggest it’s not so simple. Foreign investment becomes harmful only when domestic institutions allow it to be. Some forms of foreign engagement – such as natural resources for loans – may add to environmental pressures. But some strategic investment can support greener development. This is particularly true in infrastructure and productive sectors.

Based on these findings, and my work on economic, governance and environmental implications of Chinese investment and trade in Africa, it’s clear that Chinese engagement offers substantial economic opportunities. But it can also lead to the rapid depletion of vital energy and forest resources, undermining long-term development goals, if institutional “guardrails” are weak.

The results suggest that policymakers must insist on institutional reforms and environmental accountability if they want to achieve sustainable economic growth. Foreign economic activities must contribute to lasting national wealth rather than short-term extraction.

Beyond sustainability

The research looked at how Chinese foreign direct investment and trade influenced resource depletion across 28 African nations from 1998 to 2022.

It found that Chinese foreign direct investment accelerated depletion. This was notable in the energy and forestry sectors of countries with weak institutions.

Investment tended to push extraction beyond sustainable levels when:

  • environmental standards are unclear

  • enforcement bodies are underfunded

  • governance is compromised.

Forests shrank faster, mineral reserves were exploited aggressively and energy resources were depleted with little long-term planning.

The same study also noted that these risks were lower where governance is robust.

It found that foreign investment did not automatically lead to greater resource depletion were countries had stronger institutions, clear regulatory frameworks and credible oversight.

Botswana and Mauritius are examples.

Botswana has successfully averted the “resource curse” – when resource wealth leads to economic stagnation and corruption. It has done this by anchoring its economy in a robust rule of law and transparent institutional oversight. Central to this strategy is the Pula Fund, a sovereign wealth fund established in 1993.

The fund manages the long-term proceeds from the diamond industry by reinvesting them into foreign currency assets. This ensures that non-renewable mineral wealth is converted into sustainable financial capital for future generations.

Similarly, Mauritius uses regulations to ensure industrial investment does not harm the environment.

When oversight was credible, investment was channelled into sustainable, inclusive growth. This preserves national wealth for future generations.

But where governance was weak, the same investment could result in environmental degradation.

The Democratic Republic of Congo illustrated this. It has the world’s largest cobalt reserves. But weak government and persistent conflict have made it difficult to enforce mining codes. Artisanal and industrial mining practices cause severe water pollution and deforestation.

Similarly, Equatorial Guinea has an economy almost entirely dependent on oil. Producing more oil is seen as more important than meeting environmental standards. Transparency and accountability are poor.

The findings suggest that the environmental impact of Chinese involvement is not fixed. It hinges on whether African states have the institutional capacity to manage extraction responsibly.

Trade matters too, but governance still determines outcomes

Over the last two decades, China-Africa trade has rocketed. It shot up from US$10 billion in 2000 to $348 billion in 2025.

China exports high-value manufactured goods like electronics and solar panels. African exports mainly raw materials.

South Africa, the DRC, Nigeria and Angola together account for nearly half of the continent’s total trade volume with China.

The research found that trade with China played a more mixed role than investment.

On its own, trade didn’t appear to cause widespread environmental degradation. But in countries with weak governance, soaring trade demand often reinforced unsustainable practices. The energy sector was a case in point.

Without the referees of strong institutions, the pressure to meet export quotas encouraged intensified, unregulated extraction.

South Sudan and Nigeria illustrate this well. Conflict or corruption compromised oversight. Massive demand for crude oil led to bypassed environmental audits and severe localised pollution.

This creates a resource trap. Angola, for example, values immediate trade revenue over long-term ecological health. This leaves local communities to bear the cost of degraded landscapes and contaminated water.

What African governments can do

Across all forms of economic engagement, one factor shaped the outcome: governance quality.

The findings point towards what’s needed.

Firstly, stronger environmental regulation and enforcement.

Secondly, clear standards, independent oversight bodies and well-resourced regulatory agencies.

Thirdly, environmental safeguards in investment agreements. As part of project approvals, governments can require:

  • environmental restoration plans

  • transparent reporting of environmental impacts

  • community consultation.

Fourth, long-term resource management. Natural resources underpin energy security, biodiversity and future economic growth.

Fifth, transparency and public accountability. Open contracting, environmental disclosures and accessible data empower citizens and civil society to hold governments and investors to account.

Africa’s natural resources will become even more strategically valuable as global demand for minerals, energy and agricultural land continues to rise. Ensuring that this benefits African societies, rather than eroding their ecological foundations, will depend on one central factor: the strength of governance across the continent.

The Conversation

Vincent Tawiah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. China in Africa: investment and trade work well when there’s strong oversight, and badly when there isn’t – https://theconversation.com/china-in-africa-investment-and-trade-work-well-when-theres-strong-oversight-and-badly-when-there-isnt-273815

HIV in Malawi: digital filing system saved lives and boosted care – research

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Laura Derksen, senior researcher at the Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, University of Oslo

In the global fight against HIV/Aids, one of the most exciting innovations is not a new drug, but a better filing system.

This is what we’re seeing in Malawi, one of the most HIV-affected countries in the world. About 7% of the population there live with the virus.

The country is one of the few meeting the United Nations 95-95-95 targets (95% of people living with HIV are diagnosed, 95% of those diagnosed are treated, and 95% of those on treatment have a viral load below 200 copies per millilitre). Sustaining this progress is a massive challenge in large clinics, and requires not only medical staff and supplies but efficient management of patient data.

Effective HIV treatment requires lifelong consistency. Patients must visit clinics every few months to refill prescriptions for antiretroviral therapy, a combination of drugs that prolongs life and prevents HIV transmission. In high-volume, under-resourced clinics, tracking who has missed an appointment is difficult.

As a team of management and global health economists, we wanted to know whether better data management could help explain Malawi’s success. Our recent research used an event study to analyse a gradual rollout of an electronic medical record system, to replace paper-based records, in 106 Malawian HIV clinics between 2007 and 2019. Event study analysis, which involves comparing outcomes before and after a policy change while accounting for clinic and year fixed effects, is a method for causal inference widely used by health economists.

At the time of electronic records adoption, roughly half of patients had stopped coming for treatment. The switch to electronic medical records allowed clinics to track patients more efficiently and support return to care among lapsed patients. Five years after the system was adopted, the annual number of patients who died was estimated to have fallen by 28%.

As with any study, there are important caveats to keep in mind. The findings are based on 106 clinics in Malawi, and while HIV clinics face common challenges across sub-Saharan Africa, results may not translate directly. The study also relies on administrative data, which means patient deaths could be slightly under-counted, and some patients who lapsed from care and returned under new identifiers may not have been accurately identified. Finally, it is not possible to directly observe whether clinic staff used the system to trace lapsed patients; instead, we infer this mechanism from the increase in the total number of patients actively returning to care after electronic records were introduced.

Paper records in a digital age

HIV care in Malawi is managed by the Ministry of Health, in collaboration with local and international organisations. HIV patient clinics are typically situated within larger hospitals or health centres. The 106 clinics in the study were responsible for treating 358,843 active patients as of 2018.

Under the traditional paper-based system, identifying a patient who missed a crucial appointment meant that staff had to manually sift through thousands of physical files. In an understaffed clinic, this often simply did not happen.

To address this, the Ministry of Health collaborated with Baobab Health Trust, a local NGO, to develop and implement a new electronic medical record system. The system involves touchscreen workstations designed for durability and ease of use. Because the system was designed to be user-friendly, it did not require hiring new, specialised personnel. Existing clinic staff were trained to operate the system in sessions as short as half a day.

How the system saves lives

The electronic system did not change the medication patients received, nor did it increase the number of doctors. Instead, it improved managerial efficiency. The system automatically generates a list of patients who have missed their appointments by a specific margin. This allows clinic staff to quickly identify who needs help and use their limited time to trace these patients. They could then call them or visit their homes to encourage them to return to care. According to the clinic staff we interviewed, patients often view this outreach as a form of social support and a sign that the clinic cares about their well-being.

The effects were immediate. In clinics equipped with electronic medical records, the probability of a patient being lapsed from care dropped significantly. In the year following its adoption, clinics saw a 17% increase in the number of patients actively in care.

The benefits were most profound for the most vulnerable patients: children. Children under the age of 10 are uniquely dependent on caregivers and are at the highest risk of dropping out of treatment. Before the electronic medical records were introduced, 57% of children had lapsed from care.

These lapses result in many child deaths, as HIV/Aids is fatal without treatment. Within five years of the adoption of electronic medical records, the number of children in this age group dying fell by 44%. The electronic system acts as a safety net, ensuring that when a child misses a visit, the clinic notices and acts before it is too late.

A cost-effective solution

The electronic medical system played an important role in Malawi’s success in the fight against HIV/Aids. By 2019, the rollout of this system across the 106 clinics in our study had prevented an estimated 5,050 deaths. The system helped clinics identify patients who had stopped receiving lifesaving care and encourage them to return.

The total cost for an average clinic to adopt the system, including hardware, installation and training, was approximately US$34,050. This was funded by the government with support from international donors.

Based on the number of deaths prevented within the first five years, we estimate the cost to be US$448 per life saved.

To put this in perspective, some of the world’s most highly rated charitable life-saving programmes are estimated to cost around US$4,500 per life saved. In the US, implementing electronic medical records to monitor the health of newborn babies costs roughly $531,000 per life saved.

The future of digital health in Africa

While the study focused on the transition from paper to electronic records up to 2019, the system has continued to evolve and scale. The 106 study facilities represent only a fraction of the more than 700 HIV clinics in Malawi. Scaling and sustaining this system across the remaining facilities represents a challenge and opportunity.

Our findings prove that digital health tools are not a luxury, and should not be reserved for rich countries. In low-resource settings, where staff are overburdened and patient volumes are high, managerial technologies like electronic medical records are a frontline, life-saving intervention. They allow health workers to shift their focus away from managing thousands of paper files and towards addressing patient needs.

As international aid dwindles, these kinds of efficiency gains will be key to delivering lifesaving care and maintaining progress in the fight against HIV/Aids.

The Conversation

Laura Derksen received funding from the Connaught Global Challenge Award.

Anita McGahan receives funding from Canada’s Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the University of Toronto, a Connaught Global Challenge Award, and the Burnes Center for Social Change at Northeastern University.

Leandro Pongeluppe receives funding from the Wharton Impact, and the Wharton AI & Analytics Initiative.

ref. HIV in Malawi: digital filing system saved lives and boosted care – research – https://theconversation.com/hiv-in-malawi-digital-filing-system-saved-lives-and-boosted-care-research-274646

Why cloud service outages ripple across the internet – and the economy

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Doug Jacobson, University Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Iowa State University

A cloud outage in 2024 disrupted air travel around the world. AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

When most people think about the internet, they likely picture websites and apps. What they rarely see are the invisible services that make those experiences possible: systems that translate names into numbers, verify who you are, deliver messages and block malicious traffic.

For example, DNS, the Domain Name System, has quietly become a single point of failure. DNS is the internet’s phone book. When it fails, large parts of the internet effectively disappear, even if servers are still running.

DNS is not alone. Over the past decade, four core internet services – DNS, authentication, email and security infrastructure – have consolidated into a small number of global platforms. As a cybersecurity researcher, I see that this concentration has fundamentally changed how outages unfold. What would once have been a local failure is now often a systemic event, affecting thousands of organizations simultaneously.

The internet was designed to assume failure. Mail servers, DNS resolvers, authentication systems and security monitors were meant to be distributed and locally controlled. Today, for reasons that make economic sense, many companies and organizations outsource all four to the same handful of providers. One cloud service monitoring organization referred to 2025 as the year of the global cloud outage.

An Amazon Web Services outage on Oct. 20, 2025, took down many popular websites and apps for several hours.

DNS, authentication, email and security

Outages are no longer rare exceptions, but a predictable byproduct of efficiency at a global scale. That pattern becomes apparent when you look at a few major outages that have affected each of the four services.

DNS outages are a prime example of systemic risk. If DNS cannot resolve a name, a website may as well not exist. A growing share of global DNS resolution now depends on a small number of providers. That concentration means that a single configuration error, routing issue or attack can ripple across much of the web.

Authentication outages are less visible to the public but often more disruptive inside organizations.

For example, on Oct. 29, 2025, Microsoft Azure experienced a major outage that disrupted authentication and access for millions of users worldwide for over five hours. Another authentication provider, Okta, suffered an outage on Oct. 3.

Authentication has become a universal gatekeeper. When identity services fail, modern organizations don’t degrade gracefully; they come to a halt.

Despite decades of predictions about its decline, email remains a central component of how employers function. Password resets, invoices, legal notices, emergency notifications and incident response coordination all depend on it. When large cloud email providers experience outages, companies and organizations not only lose communication but also struggle to recover accounts and coordinate recovery efforts effectively. In 2025, both Yahoo and Microsoft email services suffered outages.

Since many companies and organizations no longer operate independent mail systems, email outages are increasingly affecting entire industries simultaneously. In an emergency, the system that people rely on to respond may be unavailable.

Security as a service is a rapidly growing market. Cybersecurity infrastructure, including distributed denial-of-service mitigation, firewalls and bot protection, is designed to keep services online. When this infrastructure fails, it can have the opposite effect.

Misconfigured security rules and routing errors at global security providers have repeatedly blocked legitimate traffic on a massive scale. In one well-documented incident in 2024, a routine configuration change by cybersecurity company CrowdStrike caused widespread outages across thousands of unrelated websites.

Why outages are getting more expensive

Industry data suggests that while outages may be becoming less frequent, they are becoming far more costly.

The professional services organization Uptime Institute reports that more than half of major outages now cost over US$100,000, and roughly 1 in 5 exceeds $1 million. These estimated costs reflect lost revenue, stalled operations, reputational damage and, in some cases, risks to health and public safety.

A cloud services outage on July 19, 2024, is estimated to have caused billions of dollars in economic losses.

Centralization magnifies these costs. A single failure now affects a greater number of users, employers and critical services simultaneously. What was once an IT problem has evolved into a multifaceted economic and societal issue.

Concentration is the real risk.

Regulators are beginning to recognize this pattern. In the United States, federal guidance now emphasizes the importance of inventorying cloud dependencies and reducing reliance on a single provider. These efforts reflect a growing realization: The greatest risk is not any one outage, but the structure of dependency that makes those outages unavoidable and wide-reaching.

Accounting for inevitable failures

The internet was designed to route around damage. In the pursuit of convenience and scale, the tech industry has rebuilt key parts of it around a small number of global trust brokers for names, identity, messaging and security. The result is a byproduct of the cloud services business model, where routine failures become systemic events.

Companies and organizations don’t need to abandon the cloud to address this issue. But I believe that it’s important to measure concentration, design for diversity, and rehearse what happens when shared services fail. Resilience does not come from perfection. It stems from choice, redundancy and the ability to fail locally rather than everywhere at once.

The Conversation

Doug Jacobson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why cloud service outages ripple across the internet – and the economy – https://theconversation.com/why-cloud-service-outages-ripple-across-the-internet-and-the-economy-272241

47 years of deep mistrust and misperception paved the way to war between Iran and the US − and complicate any negotiations

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Vice Provost and Dean of College of Arts, Sciences, and Education, Missouri University of Science and Technology

Trust between Iran and the United States was shattered long ago. Sean Gladwell, Moment/Getty Images

It has been said that trust is like glass: Once it is shattered, nothing will ever be the same. In the case of the enduring hostility between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States over the past 47 years, even this metaphor may be an understatement.

The tone of the relationship is indicative of this fact.

In 2020, Iran’s supreme leader denounced President Donald Trump as a “clown” who only pretends to support the Iranian people while ultimately plunging a “poisonous dagger” into their backs.

And in a U.S. version of this hostility, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Feb. 23, 2026, about the president’s approach to Iran: “I don’t want to use the word ‘frustrated,’ because he understands he has plenty of alternatives, but he’s curious as to why they haven’t … I don’t want to use the word ‘capitulated,’ but why they haven’t capitulated.”

The war that began on Feb. 28, 2026, hews to a familiar but dangerous pattern. Deep, historical mistrust, incompatible strategic interests, domestic political constraints on both sides, miscommunication and misperception, zero-sum thinking and repeated diplomatic overreach gradually pushed the relationship between Iran and the U.S. toward open conflict.

Rhetoric, not reality

When Tehran refused to yield to Trump’s demands, he described Iranian leaders in blunt terms: “They’re sick people. They’re mentally ill. Sick people. They are angry. They are crazy. They are sick.”

For a deeper understanding of Iran, policymakers in Washington could have looked to the insights of John W. Limbert, a distinguished diplomat with four decades of experience in Iranian affairs and a hostage during the Iran hostage crisis.

In 2008, as part of a U.S. Institute of Peace study of Iranian negotiating style, Limbert outlined 15 principles for Americans seeking successful negotiations with Iranian counterparts. Among his most important observations was that each side tends to assume the worst about the other, viewing its adversary as “infinitely devious, hostile, and duplicitous.”

Little evidence suggests that such hard-earned wisdom has informed recent rhetoric.

Instead, American leaders’ and media’s discussions of Iran over the past few decades have often relied on a familiar narrative: the portrayal of Middle Eastern leaders as irrational orlunatic” figures − first, revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, then Saddam Hussein, followed by Moammar Gadhafi, Bashar Assad, and now Ali Khamenei.

This narrative conveniently overlooks inconvenient facts.

Getting to breakdown

It was Trump who withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran during his first term. It was also the United States that during renewed negotiations in 2025 and 2026 chose to bomb Iranian targets twice while talks were still underway.

Nor were the negotiations ever strictly bilateral. There was always an unoccupied chair at the table metaphorically reserved for a ghost participant: Israel. In my view, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu skillfully used political leverage and diplomatic pressure to shape the process publicly and privately.

When it came to Iran, Trump often violated a basic principle of diplomacy: asking Iran to concede without any reciprocity. Meanwhile, Netanyahu would repeatedly move the goal posts − asserting that Iran was on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon, insisting it had no right to enrich uranium on its own soil, demanding the dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure, calling for the elimination of its ballistic missile capability, and ultimately advocating regime change.

The extent to which Israeli pressure shaped successive American policies is a question historians and investigative journalists will continue to debate.

A bearded cleric in a black turban, talking in front of a framed photo of a different cleric.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers his Friday prayer sermon in Tehran, Iran, on Nov. 5, 2004, in front of a picture of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini.
AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File

Yet responsibility for the breakdown cannot be placed on Washington and Jerusalem alone. Iranian leaders contributed significantly to making the conflict with the United States so intractable.

A corrupt, repressive and economically struggling regime relied heavily on performative anti-American politics for domestic legitimacy. Tehran matched American and Israeli rigidity with intransigence and strategic overreach of its own.

Limiting inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, failing to provide credible answers about past nuclear activities, constructing secret facilities and attempting to negotiate from a position of weakness ultimately proved disastrous when dealing with an impatient and impulsive American president.

The unknown unknowns

What comes next?

If regime change does not occur in Tehran, the two sides will almost certainly find themselves negotiating again once the fog of war dissipates.

The hostility between them will not disappear, and diplomatic niceties may become rarer. Yet diplomacy rarely requires trust; it requires interests.

I believe that future talks are therefore likely to be transactional rather than transformational. Technical and legal parameters will still need to be negotiated. Hawks and doves will continue to compete for influence in both capitals.

And the oldest rule of bargaining will remain unchanged: When you lack leverage, acquire it – then negotiate.

The Conversation

Mehrzad Boroujerdi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. 47 years of deep mistrust and misperception paved the way to war between Iran and the US − and complicate any negotiations – https://theconversation.com/47-years-of-deep-mistrust-and-misperception-paved-the-way-to-war-between-iran-and-the-us-and-complicate-any-negotiations-277789

Iran war: 4 big questions that help clarify the future of the Middle East

Source: The Conversation – USA – By David Mednicoff, Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies and Public Policy, UMass Amherst

A plume of smoke rises from a warehouse in the industrial area of Sharjah City in the United Arab Emirates, following reports of Iranian strikes elsewhere in the region on March 1, 2026. AP Photo/Altaf Qadri

The war that the U.S. and Israeli governments launched against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, is unprecedented in its scope across the Middle East. With the Arab Gulf states under Iranian attack, and Israel targeting Iran’s militia ally Hezbollah, even experts on the Middle East like me cannot predict the war’s course and especially its likely political consequences.

Still, to better understand this complex situation, I am paying particular attention to four major questions. How these specific issues play out will shed light on how this war might end and what it will mean for Iran, the rest of the Middle East and the world.

What does the US hope to accomplish?

One leader who began the war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been dead set for decades on crippling, and ideally toppling, Iran’s Islamic Republic. Iran has a long track record of sponsoring militant threats to Israel and American Arab allies.

Yet U.S. President Donald Trump has not been clear on what the goals of this war are and has said even less about what conditions would lead the U.S. to cease hostilities.

Early signs are that Iran’s capacity to project force across the Middle East is now diminished. What amount of damage to Iran’s military might be enough for the White House to believe that its mission was accomplished? Or does Trump expect Iran’s current authoritarian, theocratic political system to be removed, and for Iranians to establish a government more favorable toward American interests?

Any clarity from Washington on the true aims of this war will help observers understand under what circumstances it can end and what future Iranian-American relations might look like.

The Trump administration’s stated aims for the war have shifted constantly.

How will the war affect Gulf states’ short-term or long-term relations with Washington?

The U.S. has long prioritized deep economic and strategic relationships with the Gulf Arab states, especially Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These relationships have grown closer under Trump’s presidency.

So far, Iranian attacks have not caused significant casualties or damage to oil or commercial infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, collectively the source of 10% of the oil used in the U.S.

Indeed, some Gulf Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, already collaborate enough with Israel that being subjected to attacks from Iran has solidified their current alliance with it and the U.S.

At the same time, Gulf Arab states value long-term political stability to preserve their status as major exporters of oil and natural gas, centers of global commerce and trade and global travel hubs. While each country has its own geopolitical priorities, none wants conflicts that leave it vulnerable.

Iran’s military strategy seems designed to raise the economic and human costs for Gulf Arabs who support the U.S. and Israel.

Greater pain for citizens of the Arab Gulf could fuel leaders there to pressure Washington to stop the war. It’s also possible that Gulf leaders will rethink or rebalance their relations with the United States or Israel should the end state of the war undermine their sense of security.

Such a rethink is more likely if the war continues for weeks and creates major shocks to the global economy. Even if the war ends well for Gulf leaders, by ending concerns about Iranian regional aggression, Washington’s willingness to put Gulf states in the path of destabilizing conflict may lead them to seek less alignment with the U.S.

Who will likely rule Iran?

Mojtaba Khamenei, the hard-line son of the previous supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has just been named his father’s replacement. This is a clear signal that Iran is not yet moving toward the more cooperative government that the Trump administration wants. But with the fluid state of the war and its effects in Iran, perhaps the most important question is who will ultimately govern the country. Given Iran’s large size, predicting a long-term political outcome at this point makes little sense.

However, several factors do not bode well for a democratically representative government that could benefit ordinary Iranians. First, the Islamic Republic has been in power for decades, going to great lengths to prevent unified political opposition. Iranians’ recent waves of protests have not meant consensus on a future political order.

Second, Iran’s political system may still have support, including among members of the clergy and army. Third, the Trump administration may hope that Iranian ethnic minorities, such as the Kurds, may attack or dislodge the remnants of the government. Yet such groups lack the level of military force to ensure success.

For these reasons, the current government or a similarly authoritarian one may well remain in place after this war.

A woman in a black headcovering holding a large photo of a man with a white beard, glasses and wearing a black turban.
In Tehran on March 1, 2026, a woman mourns the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Negar/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

How do Iranians and people throughout the region view the war?

The Islamic holy month of Ramadan runs this year from Feb. 18 to mid-March. It changes the basic rhythm of life for most Muslims to one in which they fast from dawn to dusk and enjoy family and communal festivity late into the night. Throughout Iran and the Arab Gulf countries, these longtime practices have been disrupted by war and nighttime bombings.

Religion is not the primary driver of this war. Still, that war began during a sacred time is one example of an issue that might influence how the people in the middle of this conflict experience it. A less militaristic, more democratic Iranian government is a desirable outcome from a devastating war launched in violation of international law.

How popular attitudes in the region unfold will matter both to Iran’s political outcome and to whether Iran has better relations with Washington in the future.

For now, it is hard to know whether Iranians’ support for the government is growing during a major foreign attack, as it did when Iraq’s Saddam Hussein began a war against Iran in 1980. Certainly, a large swath of Iranians are content with the end of decades of Ayatollah Khamenei’s stifling rule.

Gulf Arabs may be frustrated with Washington and Tel Aviv for starting the war but also want Iran to end up with a less militant government. Most Lebanese have no love for Israel. Yet many also blame their local Iran-backed Hezbollah faction for dragging their country into the current war.

The experiences and views of these diverse populations matter. Trump has launched a war that is different from earlier American wars in the Middle East, both in the number of countries directly experiencing attacks and in the degree of direct coordination with Israel.

In addition to this war’s illegitimacy under international law, Washington has a long record of failing to achieve political results favorable to American interests after using military force in the Middle East. Given this, it is hard to believe that Operation Epic Fury will be an epic success in the long run.

However, how these four questions come to be answered in the weeks ahead will provide better indication of what this new war’s political consequences will actually be.

The Conversation

David Mednicoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Iran war: 4 big questions that help clarify the future of the Middle East – https://theconversation.com/iran-war-4-big-questions-that-help-clarify-the-future-of-the-middle-east-277473