Why ‘deaths of despair’ are higher in former coal mining communities

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Christopher Saville, Clinical Senior Lecturer, School of Psychology and Sport Science, Bangor University

Life expectancy in the UK has risen dramatically since the Industrial Revolution. For more than a century, people lived increasingly long and healthy lives. But around the turn of the millennium, that progress began to slow.

In 2015, economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton published a landmark study showing something unexpected. From the late 1990s onwards, death rates among middle-aged white Americans without university degrees had started to rise. Three causes of death were driving the trend: suicide, drug overdoses and alcohol-related disease. Case and Deaton called these “deaths of despair” and they have been a topic of research in public health ever since.

Although deaths of despair were originally thought to be a specifically American problem, researchers have been concerned that similar patterns exist elsewhere. New research from my colleague Eurwen Williams and myself suggests they do. And in England and Wales, they are particularly common in one type of place: former coal mining communities.

Coal once powered the UK’s economy. At its peak in 1920, the industry employed more than 5% of the entire UK workforce. Mining shaped towns and villages across England, Wales and Scotland. Work was hard, but it provided stable employment and strong communities. That began to change in the late 20th century.

Competition from imported coal, the shift to oil and gas, and political conflict between miners and government accelerated the industry’s decline. The confrontation reached its peak during the 1984 to 1985 miners’ strike against the government of Margaret Thatcher.

Within a generation, most mines had closed. For many coalfield communities, the economic shock was profound. Jobs disappeared. Local economies struggled to recover. And many areas have never fully recovered. We wanted to understand whether this long economic transition has left a lasting mark on public health.

For our study we examined whether deaths of despair are more common in former coal mining areas than elsewhere. To do this, we linked death registration data from the Office for National Statistics with historical records of coal mines and the dates they closed. This allowed us to compare mortality rates between areas with a history of coal mining and those without.

We analysed deaths between 2015 and 2023 and looked specifically at three causes – suicide, alcohol-related deaths and drug poisoning. What we found was striking.

Across England and Wales, deaths of despair were consistently higher in communities that once relied on coal mining. Alcohol-related deaths were particularly elevated. In some coalfield areas, they were between 27% and 52% higher than in places without a mining history.

Drug poisoning deaths were also much more common, running 23% to 53% higher than elsewhere. While suicide rates were higher too, the difference was smaller, roughly 7% to 19% higher. Perhaps most striking was the fact that these patterns appeared even in places where coal mining ended more than 50 years ago.

More than just poverty

At first glance, it may seem obvious why this happens. Former coalfield areas tend to be poorer than other parts of the country. Poverty is closely linked to poorer health.

But when we adjusted our analysis to account for differences in deprivation, something interesting happened. The gaps became smaller but they didn’t disappear.

Former coal mining communities still had significantly higher rates of alcohol-related deaths and drug poisoning. Suicide rates also remained elevated in areas where mines closed more recently. In other words, poverty alone cannot explain the pattern. Something deeper appears to be at work.

The legacy of industrial decline can shape communities in ways that standard economic measures struggle to capture. The loss of stable employment, the weakening of social institutions and long-term uncertainty about the future can all leave lasting effects. These pressures may contribute to the kinds of distress that lead to deaths of despair.

A wider pattern of health inquality

Our findings fit with a growing body of research on health in former coalfield communities. Previous studies have found higher rates of mental health problems in these areas. Others have identified other public health issues, including greater use of anabolic steroids and lower uptake of COVID-19 vaccines.

Taken together, these studies suggest the effects of deindustrialisation can persist for decades. Coal may be gone, but the consequences remain.

The decline of coal is one of the clearest examples in modern Britain of how economic transitions can reshape communities. It shows how the effects of industrial change can outlive the industries themselves.

Many economists believe the world may be entering another major economic shift. Advances in artificial intelligence are already beginning to reshape parts of the labour market.

History suggests these transitions need to be managed carefully. For decades, the UK has often relied on markets to absorb economic shocks, with limited industrial strategy to support the places most affected. But our findings highlight what can happen when communities face large economic changes without timely support.

The story of Britain’s coalfields is not just about the past. It is a reminder that economic transitions leave deep marks on people and places. And if we want to avoid repeating those mistakes, we need to learn from them.

The Conversation

Christopher Saville has received funding from the British Academy, for work on coalfield health.

ref. Why ‘deaths of despair’ are higher in former coal mining communities – https://theconversation.com/why-deaths-of-despair-are-higher-in-former-coal-mining-communities-278173

Dusking is a trend aimed at helping people switch off at the end of the day. How does it work?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jenny Hall, Associate Professor in Tourism and Events, York St John University

Ramon Martinez/Shutterstock

At the end of the day, as the sky begins to darken, many people instinctively retreat indoors, turn on the lights and miss the arrival of dusk.

A small but growing movement suggests people can benefit from doing the opposite: stepping outside and observing the slow transition from day to night. This practice, often described as “dusking”, involves watching the light start to disappear, noticing the changing colours of the sky, the emergence of evening sounds, and the quiet rhythms that mark the close of the day.

This practice is rooted in historical traditions found in places as diverse as the Netherlands and parts of Africa. The idea has recently been revived by artist Lucy Wright and by Dutch poet Marjolijn van Heemstra among others.

Wright performs a style of Morris dance that encourages participants “to dance the old sun down”, drawing attention to the moment when daylight fades.

Van Heemstra describes dusking as taking time to simply watch the sunset and the gradual fading of light as a way of reconnecting with natural rhythms. In a world dominated by relentless digital stimulation, she believes that taking time to look at the sky can help restore awareness of our surroundings. She now organises regular dusking events across the Netherlands. “All you need is a chair and a view,” she said.

Across cultures, dusk marks the shift from activity to rest, from work to home, and from light to darkness; a boundary where social rhythms change. These in-between moments can invite reflection on the environment.

Across many cultures, dusk has also been associated with uncertainty and imagination. The fading of light has long been linked to folklore, ghost stories and childhood fears of the dark, moments when the familiar landscape becomes slightly unfamiliar.

When the sun goes down

Dusk also marks a particular point in the daily rhythm of the natural world. Many species become active during this transitional period, including bats leaving their roosts to hunt, while moths and other nocturnal insects begin to fly, and mammals such as deer, foxes, and hedgehogs emerge to forage. Biologists often study dawn and dusk because animal behaviour shifts notably during these times of the day.

The idea behind dusking aligns with studies indicating that briefly focusing on natural surroundings can enhance wellbeing and relaxation. Simply observing changes in light, sound, and atmosphere may also encourage a shift from the constant hustle of the work day to winding down, potentially moving people towards sleep.

Music inspired by the dusking movement.

Sounds of twilight

In our research, carried out in the North York Moors National Park, participants said that while walking at twilight, or in darkness, they became more aware of natural smells and sounds. The group noticed the transitions from daytime birdsong, with the robin last to tweet, to nighttime animal sounds and the hoot of an owl. These moments frequently produced quiet reflection.

In the last century, the places where people can experience darkness have reduced dramatically because of increasing artificial light glow from homes and office buildings. Now only 10% of the people living in the western hemisphere experience places with dark skies, where there is no, or little, artificial light. And the number of people who can see the Milky Way is reducing all the time.

Previous generations were more accustomed to navigating in low light, using their senses to move through landscapes after sunset. Today, this sensory knowledge has become increasingly rare in our artificially illuminated world.

Artificial lighting frequently masks the subtle environmental cues that once dictated the rhythm of everyday life. Noticing dusk, even briefly, can bring those rhythms back into focus.

The sky darkens, the air cools, birds shift their calls, and the world moves quietly toward night.

To quote the 18th-century poet Thomas Gray: “Now fades the glimmering landscape on the sight. And all the air a solemn stillness holds.”

Of course, watching the sunset is hardly a new idea as Gray’s poem shows, but one it seems we may have forgotten to value to our detriment.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Dusking is a trend aimed at helping people switch off at the end of the day. How does it work? – https://theconversation.com/dusking-is-a-trend-aimed-at-helping-people-switch-off-at-the-end-of-the-day-how-does-it-work-277814

Voici pourquoi il faut valoriser les vendeurs ambulants et les récupérateurs de déchets dans les villes

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Gisèle Yasmeen, JW McConnell Professor of Practice, Max Bell School of Public Policy, McGill University

Les villes abritent aujourd’hui près de la moitié (45 %) des 8,2 milliards d’habitants de la planète, et ce chiffre devrait atteindre 68 % d’ici 2050. Avec leur croissance, les villes deviennent des acteurs clés pour bâtir un avenir durable. Partout dans le monde, l’urbanisation influence la production, la distribution et la consommation alimentaires, et les villes sont des moteurs essentiels de l’évolution des systèmes alimentaires.

Le Pacte de Milan pour une politique alimentaire urbaine a récemment renouvelé les engagements mondiaux en faveur de systèmes alimentaires urbains durables et équitables. Signé par 330 villes à travers le monde, le plan d’action de ce pacte vise à améliorer la production et la distribution alimentaires et à réduire le gaspillage.


Cet article fait partie de notre série Nos villes d’hier à demain. Le tissu urbain connait de multiples mutations, avec chacune ses implications culturelles, économiques, sociales et politiques. Pour éclairer ces divers enjeux, La Conversation invite les chercheuses et chercheurs à aborder l’actualité de nos villes.

Comme le Comité de la sécurité alimentaire mondiale a affirmé en octobre 2025, sans politique intentionnelle, cette croissance ne permettra pas d’alimenter la transformation nécessaire pour assurer la durabilité des systèmes alimentaires.

La restauration de rue et ses vendeurs sont un élément essentiel du paysage alimentaire urbain, offrant une alimentation abordable et un revenu vital à de nombreux citadins. Cependant, ces vendeurs se heurtent fréquemment à l’hostilité des autorités municipales qui invoquent des problèmes de circulation et de santé publique.

De plus, au moins un tiers des aliments produits dans le monde se perdent, finissant dans les décharges et entraînant un gaspillage de ressources précieuses, d’énergie et de main-d’œuvre. Les récupérateurs de déchets urbains peuvent jouer un rôle essentiel dans la réduction de ces déchets.

Pour remédier à ces problèmes, il faut une volonté politique et des investissements afin d’améliorer nos systèmes alimentaires et de les rendre plus durables à l’avenir.

Vendeurs ambulants et les kiosques de nourriture

De nombreuses villes à travers le monde proposent une scène culinaire de rue dynamique qui assure des moyens de subsistance aux vendeurs et offre à leurs clients une cuisine variée, savoureuse et de grande qualité. Des chercheurs et des défenseurs de la cuisine de rue affirment qu’elle constitue un élément essentiel du système alimentaire urbain et souvent une alternative plus saine aux aliments ultra-transformés de type fast-food.

Cependant, les tensions avec les autorités municipales peuvent perturber ce paysage alimentaire. Par exemple, à Bangkok, des dizaines de milliers de vendeurs ont été déplacés en raison d’une campagne municipale décongestionner des trottoirs.

De plus, il y a une récente initiative controversée visant à créer des centres de restauration ambulante à la manière de Singapour afin de créer une apparence d’ordre et d’améliorer l’hygiène.

À New York, une organisation appelée le Street Vendor Project vise à équilibrer la sécurité de la circulation et des piétons avec la nécessité de maintenir ces services urbains et moyens de subsistance essentiels. Le groupe a joué un rôle déterminant dans la campagne menée par le Conseil municipal de New York pour l’abrogation des sanctions pénales pour délits mineurs en faveur des vendeurs ambulants de nourriture en septembre 2025. Une politique et une planification équitables impliquent de soutenir les vendeurs de nourriture plutôt que de les marginaliser davantage.

Récupérateurs de déchets urbains

Dans de nombreuses villes, des récupérateurs de déchets collectent, trient et vendent des matériaux mis au rebut comme le plastique, le métal et le papier en vue de leur recyclage ou de leur réutilisation. Si les récupérateurs de déchets sont plus fréquents dans les villes des pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire, on les retrouve également dans les zones urbaines des pays riches.

Les pertes et le gaspillage alimentaires sont responsables de 8 à 10 % des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Ce gaspillage est largement dû à de mauvaises pratiques de stockage, à des chaînes d’approvisionnement défaillantes, à la logistique du dernier kilomètre, à des réglementations trop restrictives et aux pratiques de consommation excessives des ménages aisés. Une étude de 2020 a estimé que près de 60 % du plastique collecté pour le recyclage l’était par des récupérateurs de déchets informels.

Une grande partie de ce plastique provient d’emballages alimentaires et de boissons jetés dans les zones urbaines. Le Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement recommande que les quelque 20 millions de récupérateurs de déchets dans le monde soient pleinement intégrés à la gestion des déchets municipaux.

L’amélioration de la gestion des déchets, notamment dans les villes des pays du Sud, exige des investissements importants dans les infrastructures. Toutefois, les systèmes de gestion des déchets ne doivent pas se contenter de copier les modèles des pays du Nord.

Une analyse des approches et des résultats menée à travers le monde en vue de l’intégration des récupérateurs de déchets dans les systèmes municipaux de gestion des déchets a formulé plusieurs recommandations. Toutefois, la stigmatisation de ces moyens de subsistance demeure un obstacle.


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Néanmoins, un nombre croissant d’organisations de récupérateurs de déchets — ainsi qu’une coalition mondiale — offre une lueur d’espoir quant à la reconnaissance de ces héros méconnus du recyclage urbain. Parmi ces initiatives, on peut citer les partenariats entre les récupérateurs de déchets et les collectivités locales brésiliennes, le Binners Project à Vancouver, qui s’appuie sur le dépôt United We Can, Les Valoristes à Montréal, la National Street Vendor Association of India et l’initiative Linis-Ganda à Manille, qui collabore avec des établissements d’enseignement et des entreprises. Ces exemples illustrent comment l’intégration des recycleurs informels peut contribuer à la gestion des déchets et à la création d’une économie alimentaire plus circulaire.

Face à l’urbanisation croissante, nous serons de plus en plus nombreux à dépendre du rôle essentiel des vendeurs ambulants et des récupérateurs de déchets. Des politiques et une planification inclusives, reconnaissant la contribution de ces deux moyens de subsistance, sont indispensables pour garantir un avenir alimentaire urbain durable pour tous.

La Conversation Canada

Cet article est basé en partie sur des documents de breffage que Gisèle Yasmeen a préparé pour une étude par la Banque Mondiale.

Julian Tayarah et Umme Salma ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.

ref. Voici pourquoi il faut valoriser les vendeurs ambulants et les récupérateurs de déchets dans les villes – https://theconversation.com/voici-pourquoi-il-faut-valoriser-les-vendeurs-ambulants-et-les-recuperateurs-de-dechets-dans-les-villes-274942

Trump’s ‘Venezuela solution’ to Cuba would see the island nation returned to a client state

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Joseph J. Gonzalez, Associate Professor of Global Studies, Appalachian State University

The U.S. and Cuban governments have been at odds since the conclusion of the Cuban Revolution 67 years ago. Yet despite pressure, embargoes and various CIA plots, the communist government in Havana has resisted the wishes of its very powerful neighbor separated by just 90 miles (145 kilometers) of water.

From my perspective as an expert on Havana-Washington ties, however, this moment seems different.

For the first time since 1959, an American president, Donald Trump, appears on the verge of doing what so many of his predecessors have longed to do: depose a Cuban president and compel the Cuban government to align itself with American economic and strategic interests.

If Trump succeeds – either through military might or negotiation – then Cuba looks set to become something less than a sovereign nation and more akin to an American client state.

A partnership of unequals?

At first glance, the possibility of such a change looks epic, even monumental: an end to the Cuban Revolution as we have known it.

But deep in the annals of U.S.-Cuban history, there are echoes of Trump’s demands.

From 1898 to 1959, the American government essentially ran Cuba as a colony within its empire.

Americans repeatedly decided who would occupy the presidential palace, while Cuban politicians protected U.S. investments and supported U.S. supremacy in the Caribbean. American gangsters ran the hotels and the gambling.

That relationship ended with the revolution and Fidel Castro’s assumption of power. But if Trump has his way, the future of the U.S. and Cuba will look very much like it did in the pre-Castro era: a partnership of unequals.

Heightened tensions

During his first term, Trump turned away from President Barack Obama’s “Cuban Thaw,” which had established diplomatic relations, eased travel restrictions and raised hopes of an end to the decades-old U.S. embargo.

In place of engagement with the Cuban government, Trump strengthened the embargo, all but closed the U.S. Embassy in Havana and further restricted travel by American citizens to the island.

Trump also returned Cuba to the State Department’s list of nations that support terrorism, where it resides today.

Now, one year into his second term, Trump is using coercion backed with a tacit military threat to increase pressure on the Cuban government.

On Jan. 3, 2026, U.S. forces, seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, bringing them to New York to stand trial.

During the raid, U.S. forces killed between 75 and 100 Venezuelans and a coterie of Cubans providing security to Maduro.

Venezuela was Cuba’s closest ally, providing the island with oil at vastly reduced prices in exchange for doctors and advisers for Venezuela’s security and intelligence services.

Following Maduro’s arrest, Trump made it clear that the U.S. would no longer permit any country to supply Cuba with oil.

Without oil, Trump predicted that the Cuban government would soon collapse and suggested that Marco Rubio, his Cuban American Secretary of State, could become president of Cuba.

Secret negotiations

Cuba was in severe distress long before Maduro’s arrest.

In the years since the COVID-19 pandemic, the government has found it almost impossible to maintain adequate electricity, water, public health health what? care? and public transport.

Then came the Trump administration’s oil embargo, which may push Cuba into the worst economic crisis in its history, prompting longer, deeper blackouts and further reductions in public services.

Hunger is now a widespread concern, garbage is piling up and mosquito-borne illnesses are skyrocketing. Dissent is also becoming more public – and more violent.

A man stands in a street with only car headlights lighting the scene.
Blackouts have become common in Cuba.
Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images

Publicly, the communist government responded defiantly to the Trump administration’s aggressive actions, pledging to resist American pressure just as it had for the better part of 60 years.

Privately, however, the Cuban government agreed to talks with the Trump administration, hoping to find a way to ease American pressure.

The White House reportedly no longer considers the collapse of the Cuban government desirable, as it would precipitate a migration crisis that threatens the stability of the Caribbean, including to a South Florida that is home to the world’s largest Cuban diaspora community.

The ‘Venezuelan Solution’

Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, has publicly acknowledged talks with the U.S. But the particulars remain obscure.

The U.S. government reportedly wants Díaz-Canel to leave the country and permit American investment in Cuba, particularly from Cuban Americans, which has long been prohibited.

The Cuban government has already reportedly acceded to this latter demand.

The Trump administration also wants more political prisoners released and a purge of officials who were close to Fidel and Raúl Castro, his successor as president, and remained powerful after the Cuban revolutionary leader’s death in 2016. According to Amnesty International, Cuba has at least 1,000 prisoners of conscience.

In exchange, the White House would be willing to permit members of the Castro family to remain in Cuba and allow for the importation of oil. The rest of the Cuban government would also remain intact.

Cubans I know are calling this deal the “Venezuela Solution.” Much like Maduro’s successors, Cuba’s leaders would remain rulers of Cuba – provided they accept diminished political sovereignty and respect U.S. policy priorities.

Back to the future

Such a deal, if it happens, would return Cuba to the status of an American client state, the status it held long before Castro seized power and allied himself with the Soviet Union.

In 1898, the U.S. intervened in the Cuban War of Independence, the last in a series of wars fought by Cubans against their onetime Spanish colonizers.

The United States kicked out the Spanish, occupied Cuba and proclaimed its desire to turn Cuba into an independent, sovereign nation-state.

But that never happened.

Distrusting the Cubans’ ability to govern themselves, the U.S. retained the legal right to intervene in Cuban politics.

Between 1898 and 1959, the U.S. government, through its ambassador in Havana, determined who would be president of Cuba whenever a dispute arose.

Cuban politicians, eager to preserve their positions, guarded American property, despite Cuban resentments, and supported U.S. foreign policy throughout Latin America and the world.

On the eve of the revolution, Americans owned more than US$800 million in property in Cuba — the equivalent of at least $9 billion today.

Americans dominated not only the sugar industry but also public utilities, mining and tourism, which American organized crime came to control.

What’s next?

For more than 60 years, pre-revolutionary Cuba endured independence without sovereignty as an American client state.

Could such a relationship reemerge? For now, the situation between the U.S. and Cuba remains fluid, and the terms of discussions are shrouded in secrecy.

Trump, publicly, promotes a “friendly takeover of Cuba,” insisting that he could do with Cuba “anything I want.”

But one thing remains certain. While Trump remains in the White House and Rubio heads the State Department, U.S. maximum pressure on Cuba will not cease.

The Trump administration is committed to ending the Cuban government’s resistance to American power and American investment, regardless of the direct humanitarian costs in the form of the oil embargo and other penalties.

Any deal with Trump will be a bitter pill for Cuba’s political elite to swallow.

But absent an oil-rich ally, like Russia or Venezuela, and faced with an implacable enemy, Cuban officials may have no choice but to bring Cuba back into the orbit of American power, at least for now.

The Conversation

Joseph J. Gonzalez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Trump’s ‘Venezuela solution’ to Cuba would see the island nation returned to a client state – https://theconversation.com/trumps-venezuela-solution-to-cuba-would-see-the-island-nation-returned-to-a-client-state-278710

Spain-US rift: Pedro Sánchez’ defiance of Trump is dictated by domestic politics – but it’s also a litmus test for Europe

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Waya Quiviger, Professor of Practice of Gobal Governance and Development, IE University

A protester’s sign reading ‘For peace and justice. No to war’ in Spanish, at a demonstration in Logroño on March 12, 2026. Www.mariomartija.es/Shutterstock

The war in Iran has yet again exposed the tensions between Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and Donald Trump. The two leaders have clashed repeatedly over the last year, including over Spain’s ongoing opposition to Israel’s conduct in Gaza, its refusal to raise Nato spending above 2% of GDP, and now its refusal to support the US war in Iran.

In late February, Spain barred the US from using its joint military bases in Rota and Morón for operations linked to the Iran war. As a result, an incensed Trump stated “We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain.”




Leer más:
Could the US cut off trade with Spain? Here’s what international law says


Sánchez has since doubled down on his opposition in a nationally televised address, where he emphatically stated the Spanish government’s position: “No a la guerra”, no to war. On social media he also asserted: “NO to violations of international law” and “NO to the illusion that we can solve the world’s problems with bombs.”

Such pointed defiance of the Trump administration could carry political risks for Sánchez. Indeed, reactions to the war from other European states have been a lot more muted. Why, then, has Sánchez adopted such an unusually confrontational stance?

The clash is being presented as a question of geopolitics or international law, but it is better understood as domestic politics shaping foreign policy. Spain’s historical anti-war political culture, the dynamics of Sánchez’s left-leaning governing coalition, and electoral incentives at home all help account for Madrid’s unusually firm position.

The shadow of Iraq

In his recent address, Sánchez made a specific reference to the 2003 war in Iraq: “Twenty-three years ago, another US Administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East,” he said. “A war which, in theory, was said at the time to be waged to eliminate Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, to bring democracy, and to guarantee global security but… it unleashed the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent had suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

In 2003, Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar joined the US-led coalition to topple Saddam Hussein. The decision triggered massive protests across the country and partly led to Aznar’s defeat in the 2004 elections. His opponent, the Socialist Party’s José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, campaigned on a promise to withdraw troops from Iraq, which he fulfilled immediately after taking office.

The Iraq war fundamentally shaped Spanish public attitudes toward military intervention in the Middle East, and its legacy explains Sánchez’s instinct to distance Spain from the Iran war. His stance is not only ideological – it reflects the memory of how politically damaging it can be for a Spanish government to align itself with US interventions.

Coalition politics and early electoral signals

Sánchez’ position on the war in Iran can also be analysed in the light of current political developments at home. Sánchez governs with support from left-wing parties strongly opposed to US military intervention. Backing Washington, or even facilitating the war through US bases, could risk destabilising that coalition. But the political calculation may go even further.

Sánchez has earned a reputation for repeatedly surviving political crises. Despite declining poll numbers and ongoing scandals within his party and inner circle, he appears to be betting that Trump’s deep unpopularity in Spain will ultimately work to his advantage, particularly among his left-leaning base.

Recent electoral results suggest the strategy may be resonating with voters. In much anticipated regional elections in Castilla y León held on Sunday, Sánchez’ Socialist Party (PSOE) increased its representation, gaining two additional seats despite polls suggesting the party might lose significant ground.

While one election cannot determine national trends, the result offers an early indication that a firm anti-war stance may not carry the domestic political costs critics predicted. If anything, it may have reinforced Sánchez’s appeal across party lines among voters sceptical of military escalation, critical of Donald Trump, and supportive of a more independent European foreign policy.

If Sánchez is proven right, it would also vindicate the Spanish government’s stance on Nato. In June 2025, Spain refused to raise defence spending toward Trump’s proposed 5% Nato target, prompting harsh criticism from the US president. The dispute reflects a broader political reality: higher defence spending is unpopular among the Spanish electorate.

Seen in this context, the Iran war confrontation is part of a longer pattern in which domestic political considerations shape Spain’s position within the transatlantic alliance.




Leer más:
NATO has deep divisions – but why is Spain its most openly critical member?


Domestic pressures across Europe

Spain’s stance may appear unusually confrontational, but Europe’s response to the Iran war has been far from unified. Much of the variation reflects different domestic political pressures facing European leaders.

In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz initially avoided direct criticism of the US strikes and has generally emphasised transatlantic unity. Nevertheless, he has warned against a prolonged conflict and stressed that Germany “is not a party to this war” and does not want to become one, highlighting concerns about economic disruption and regional instability.

The UK has taken a similarly careful stance. Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisted on clarity about US objectives and legal justification before committing military support, emphasising diplomacy and maritime security rather than direct involvement in the conflict.

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has raised concerns about the legality of the war, but avoided outright condemnation of Washington. Her government has emphasised respect for existing agreements governing US military bases rather than blocking their use outright, reflecting both Italy’s strong security ties with the United States and Meloni’s own political alignment with transatlantic conservatives.

The overall picture is of a fragmented European response. Across the continent, governments are balancing their own domestic political constraints against broader international strategic calculations.

A litmus test for Europe

Spain’s response to the Iran war may offer the clearest example yet of how domestic politics is shaping Europe’s reaction to the conflict. Time will tell whether Sánchez’s stance proves politically sustainable at home, and whether it makes Spain the champion of a more assertive European approach toward Washington or just an outlier.

If the strategy proves successful, it could encourage other European leaders to push back against Washington. If it backfires, however, Europe’s cautious response will likely become more entrenched.

Either way, the episode illustrates a broader reality of international relations. Foreign policy decisions may be presented as matters of international law or principle, but in democratic systems they are often shaped first and foremost by the pressures of politics at home.


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The Conversation

Waya Quiviger no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Spain-US rift: Pedro Sánchez’ defiance of Trump is dictated by domestic politics – but it’s also a litmus test for Europe – https://theconversation.com/spain-us-rift-pedro-sanchez-defiance-of-trump-is-dictated-by-domestic-politics-but-its-also-a-litmus-test-for-europe-278557

How dolphins communicate – new discoveries from a long-term study in Sarasota, Florida

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Laela Sayigh, Senior Research Specialist, Cetacean Communication, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Bottlenose dolphins are social creatures that use whistles and clicks to communicate with each other. Brookfield Zoo Chicago’s Sarasota Dolphin Research Program, taken under NMFS MMPA Scientific Research Permit

Human fascination with bottlenose dolphins goes back thousands of years, at least as early as Greek mythology.

But it wasn’t until the 1960s that methodical research into dolphin communication began. Scientists like John Lilly and the husband-and-wife team of Melba and David Caldwell tried various experiments to decipher the sounds dolphins can make.

The Caldwells figured out a way to record isolated animals in human care. They discovered that each individual dolphin communicated mostly with one unique whistle, which they called the “signature whistle.” Researchers now know that these whistles convey identities much like human names do. Dolphins use them to stay in touch with each other in their murky habitat, where vision is limited. It’s like announcing “I’m over here!” when someone can’t see you.

This discovery is foundational to my own research. I’ve been studying communication in wild dolphins since the mid-1980s, when I joined my mentor Peter Tyack in documenting signature whistles in wild dolphins for the first time. Our team’s research focused on a resident community of free-ranging bottlenose dolphins in waters near Sarasota, Florida, where I continue to work today.

This collaborative study, led by Randall Wells of Brookfield Zoo Chicago’s Sarasota Dolphin Research Program, involves numerous researchers from a variety of institutions, who study different aspects of dolphin biology, health, ecology and behavior. Begun in 1970, this is the longest-running research project on a population of wild cetaceans – whales, dolphins and porpoises – in the world.

one dolphin surfaces next to another's dorsal fin, which has a jagged edge at the top
Each dolphin has distinctive markings on its dorsal fin. Experienced researchers can sometimes identify them by sight in the field, and they photograph them to confirm their identity in the lab.
Photo by Brookfield Zoo Chicago’s Sarasota Dolphin Research Program, taken under NMFS MMPA Scientific Research Permit

Recording and observing

Researchers know the age, sex and maternal relatedness of almost all of the approximately 170 dolphins in the Sarasota community. This depth of knowledge provides an unprecedented opportunity to study communication in a wild cetacean species.

The dolphins in the Sarasota project are periodically subject to brief catch-and-release health assessments, during which researchers, including me, briefly handle individual dolphins.

Our team attaches suction-cup hydrophones directly onto each dolphin’s melon – that is, its forehead. We then record the dolphins continuously throughout the health assessments, taking notes on who is being recorded when, and what is happening at the time.

This is how my colleagues and I were able to confirm that wild dolphins, like captive animals, produced large numbers of individually distinctive signature whistles when briefly isolated from other dolphins. Through observations and recordings of known free-swimming dolphins, we were further able to confirm that they produced these same signature whistles in undisturbed contexts.

We have organized these recordings into the Sarasota Dolphin Whistle Database, which now contains nearly 1,000 recording sessions of 324 individual dolphins. More than half of the dolphins in the database have been recorded more than once.

We identify each dolphin’s signature whistle based on its prevalence: In the catch-and-release context, about 85% of the whistles that dolphins produced are signature whistles. We can identify these visually, by viewing plots of frequency vs. time called spectrograms.

Spectrograms of signature whistles of 269 individual bottlenose dolphins recorded in Sarasota.
Figure created by Frants Jensen, with sound files from Laela Sayigh

Signature whistles and ‘motherese’

The Sarasota Dolphin Whistle Database has proved to be a rich resource for understanding dolphin communication. For instance, we have discovered that some calves develop signature whistles similar to those of their mothers, but many do not, raising questions about what factors influence signature whistle development.

We have also found that once developed, signature whistles are highly stable over an animal’s lifetime, especially for females. Males often form strong pair bonds with another adult male, and in some instances, their whistles become more similar to one another over time. We are still trying to understand when and why this occurs.

Dolphin mothers modify their signature whistles when communicating with their calves by increasing the maximum frequency, or pitch. This is similar to human caregivers using a higher-pitched voice when communicating with young children – a phenomenon known as “motherese.”

Slowed recording of a bottle-nosed dolphin without her calf, then with her calf.
Courtesy of Laela Sayigh of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and Brookfield Zoo Chicago’s Sarasota Dolphin Research Program. These sounds were obtained under a federal scientific research permit issued to R. Wells of SDRP.72 KB (download)

Also similar to humans is how dolphins will initiate contact with another dolphin by imitating their signature whistle – what we call a signature whistle copy. This is similar to how you would use someone’s name to call out to them.

Our team is interested in finding out if dolphins also copy whistles of others who aren’t present, potentially talking about them. We have seen evidence of this in our recordings of dolphins during health assessments, which provide a rare context to document this phenomenon convincingly. But we still have more work to do to confirm that these are more than chance similarities in whistles.

Shared whistle types

Another exciting development has been our recent discovery of shared whistle types — ones that are used by multiple animals and that are not signature whistles. We call these non-signature whistles.

I could hardly believe my ears when I first discovered a repeated, shared non-signature whistle type being produced by multiple dolphins in response to sounds we play back to them through an underwater speaker. We had previously believed that these non-signature whistles were somewhat random, but now I was hearing many different dolphins making a similar whistle type.

Our team originally had been using the playbacks to try to determine whether dolphins use “voice cues” to recognize each other – similar to how you can recognize the voice of someone you know. Although we found that dolphins did not use voice cues, our discovery of shared non-signature whistle types has led to an entirely new research direction.

A woman on a boat wearing headphones and looking at a laptop
The author listens to dolphin whistles on a boat in Sarasota.
Jonathan Bird from the film ‘Call of the Dolphins’/Oceanic Research Group, Inc.

So far, I’ve identified at least 20 different shared non-signature whistle types, and I am continuing to build our catalog. We are hoping that artificial intelligence methods may help us categorize these whistle types in the future.

To understand how these shared non-signature whistle types function, we are carrying out more playback experiments, filming the dolphins’ responses with drones. We’ve found that one such whistle often leads to avoidance of the drones, suggesting a possible alarm-type function. We have also found that another type might be an expression of surprise, as we have seen animals produce it when they hear unexpected stimuli.

More difficult, more interesting

So far, the main takeaway from our experiments has been that dolphin communication is complex and that there are not going to be one-size-fits-all responses to any non-signature whistle type. This isn’t surprising, given that, like us, these animals have complicated social relationships that could affect how they respond to different sound types.

For instance, when you hear someone call your name, you may respond differently if you are with a group of people or alone, or if you recently had an argument with someone, or if you’re hungry and on your way to eat.

Our team has a lot more work ahead to sample as many dolphins in as many contexts as possible, such as different ages, sexes, group compositions and activities.

This makes my job more difficult – and far more interesting. I feel lucky every day I am able to spend working on the seemingly infinite number of fascinating research questions about dolphin communication that await answers.

Read more stories from The Conversation about Florida.

The Conversation

Laela Sayigh works for the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. She receives funding from various government and philanthropic organizations. She is on the board of the non-profit Cetacean Communication Research, Inc. She closely collaborates with the Brookfield Zoo Chicago’s Sarasota Dolphin Research program.

ref. How dolphins communicate – new discoveries from a long-term study in Sarasota, Florida – https://theconversation.com/how-dolphins-communicate-new-discoveries-from-a-long-term-study-in-sarasota-florida-271276

50 years ago, Karen Quinlan’s coma sparked the movement for patients’ rights near the end of life

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Robert S. Olick, Associate Professor Emeritus of Bioethics and Humanities, SUNY Upstate Medical University

Karen Ann Quinlan’s case has remained a touchstone for other debates about end-of-life care. ljubaphoto/E+ via Getty Images

March 31, 2026, marks 50 years since a landmark decision
that shapes American patients’ rights every day: the New Jersey Supreme Court ruling in the case of Karen Ann Quinlan, who had suffered an irreversible coma.

Quinlan’s case established for the first time that decisions near the end of life should be made by patients and families, not by doctors and hospitals alone. As a bioethicist, I have taught and written extensively about the profound impact the Quinlan case has had on law, bioethics and the pursuit of death with dignity.

The Quinlan story

In April 1975, at the age of 21, Karen Ann Quinlan suffered a cardiac arrest and loss of oxygen to the brain while at a friend’s party. After she had gone to bed, friends discovered that she had stopped breathing, and she was rushed to the hospital.

After a while, doctors determined that Quinlan was in a persistent vegetative state: a condition in which all cognitive functions of the brain have been lost and the patient has no awareness of themselves or their environment. People in a persistent vegetative state retain some brain stem functions that regulate involuntary bodily activities, such as heart rate, blood pressure and digestion, but cannot live without continuous care and treatment. Some patients breathe independently with a feeding tube and other care. Quinlan needed both a respirator and a feeding tube.

When a persistent vegetative state is properly diagnosed, recovering cognitive ability is extremely rare.

After months of agonizing over their daughter’s plight, the Quinlans decided she would not want her biological life prolonged indefinitely in this condition and that it was not in her best interests. The family knew Karen as a very active, athletic and energetic young woman, who, when terminally ill people she knew had received aggressive treatments, had said she would not want similar measures.

A black and white portrait of a young woman with long, straight brown hair.
Karen Ann Quinlan went into a coma in 1975.
Bettmann/Getty Images

Joseph and Julia Quinlan were devout Catholics who met often with their parish priest. He explained that Catholic teachings permitted removal of extraordinary treatments, like the respirator, that impose pain, suffering and excessive burdens without possibility of recovery. Many Catholic theologians believe that ordinary care and treatment such as feeding tubes, on the other hand, should be continued.

The parents requested the respirator be removed and that their daughter be allowed to die. But the doctor and hospital refused, prompting her family to go to court.

At trial

The Quinlans were represented by Paul Armstrong. He became their champion both in a court of law and in the court of public opinion amid the onslaught of press coverage.

At the heart of the case was the argument that patients have a constitutional right of privacy to refuse treatment, including life-sustaining treatment.

The Quinlans argued that Joseph should be appointed Karen’s guardian to exercise this right on her behalf, with authority to decide to remove the respirator. They contended that this should be understood as allowing a natural dying process to take its course, not as an act of suicide or homicide. No case had ever presented these principles to a court of law.

The doctors and hospital, along with local and state prosecutors, argued that there was no such right to die and that preservation of life was paramount. Two of the medical professionals’ claims stand out. First, that to continue the respirator was for medical experts to decide, not the patient or family. Second, that accepted norms of the profession required aggressive interventions to sustain life. Extending the patient’s life mattered more than its quality.

On Nov. 10, 1975, the trial court ruled against the family and held that the doctors and hospital had no obligation to comply with the family’s request. They could continue the respirator and decide whether and when it should be removed.

The Quinlans appealed to the state Supreme Court.

Landmark decision

On March 31, 1976, the New Jersey Supreme Court issued a unanimous opinion in favor of the Quinlans. The justices held that patients have a constitutional right of privacy to refuse unwanted life-sustaining treatments and that this right should not be lost when illness, disease or disability take away our ability to choose for ourselves. Family members may decide on behalf of incompetent loved ones, basing decisions on what the patient would want and acting in their best interests.

A black and white photograph shows a middle-aged woman in a white dress and a middle-aged man in a suit jacket, speaking with a man in a black clerical uniform.
The Rev. Thomas Trepasso speaks with Joseph and Julia Quinlan, whose Catholic faith guided their decisions about their daughter’s care.
Bettmann/Getty Images

Stating the broader principles of the case, Chief Justice Richard Hughes wrote that the patient’s wishes are “predominant” even when doctors disagree, and these decisions must “be responsive not only to the concepts of medicine but also to the common moral judgment of the community at large.” With these words, the decision rejected centuries of physician paternalism – of “doctor knows best.” It ushered in the era of patient autonomy that puts patients and families first at the bedside.

The case would transform how decisions near the end of life are made and by whom. It also planted the seeds for hospital ethics committees and consultants who today serve to ensure sound decision-making and to help resolve disagreements privately without going to court.

The decision did not bring an end to the family’s painful journey, nor to public interest in the case. After the decision, the physicians removed and reattached the respirator, taking it away for progressively longer periods of time. Eventually, Quinlan was able to breathe on her own, while still in a vegetative state.

True to their Catholic faith, the Quinlans believed the feeding tube sustaining Karen’s life to be ordinary care that should be continued and that it was not causing her pain. They never asked that it be removed. Their daughter died from pneumonia nine years later on June 11, 1985.

End-of-life consensus

In the 15 years or so after the New Jersey ruling, courts across the nation saw their own end-of-life controversies and followed the core principles of the Quinlan decision to resolve them.

Meanwhile, state legislatures had another answer for the essential question: What would the patient want?

A decade after the Quinlan case, New Jersey created a Bioethics Commission to study advancing health care technology in light of the decision’s principles. The commission’s proposed legislation establishing advance directives was enacted on July 11, 1991. I was privileged to lead this project, as staff to the commission.

Today, all 50 states have advance directive laws that allow competent adults to plan ahead and put their wishes for end-of-life care in writing.

The rapid emergence of a national judicial and legislative consensus added several principles to the Quinlan framework: Treatment refusal rests on the inherent right of self-determination and does not depend on how the Constitution is interpreted. These same rights belong to those suffering from advanced cancer, heart disease or other terminal conditions. And patients may refuse any and all medical interventions, including feeding tubes.

These are all pillars of today’s legal, ethical, medical and social consensus around end-of-life care.

Put it in writing

Today, many Americans take the fundamental right to refuse unwanted treatments for granted and put off planning for life’s end. These are not easy conversations to have. According to a 2020 University of Michigan study, only 59% of adults ages 50-80 have discussed their treatment preferences with family members or another trusted person, and less than 50% have completed an advance care planning document.

I believe this anniversary is an occasion to appreciate these important rights and to consider putting wishes for end-of-life care in writing.

The Conversation

Robert S. Olick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. 50 years ago, Karen Quinlan’s coma sparked the movement for patients’ rights near the end of life – https://theconversation.com/50-years-ago-karen-quinlans-coma-sparked-the-movement-for-patients-rights-near-the-end-of-life-277318

What Betsy Ross’ real story tells us about women’s work in the Revolution − and why it still matters 250 years later

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Marla Miller, Distinguished Professor of History, UMass Amherst

According to the legend, Betsy Ross showed George Washington how a five-pointed star instead of a six-pointed star would speed up production. GraphicaArtis/Archive Photos Collection via Getty Images

For generations, most Americans knew – and maybe believed – a story about upholstery seamstress Betsy Ross and the making of the nation’s first flag.

In the account passed down through her family, Ross was a young Philadelphia widow when George Washington and a congressional committee asked her to make a flag for the Colonies uniting in rebellion against England.

A sketch showed what they envisioned: red and white stripes and a constellation of six-pointed stars across a blue field.

But, the story continues, Ross folded a piece of paper “just so,” made a single cut, and voila! She produced a perfect five-pointed star. The men approved, she stitched a flag, Congress cheered and history was made.

As a historian of early American craftswomen, including Ross, I have often seen how mythologies – history’s sound bites – can bury richer and deeper understandings of the past. That’s the case with Betsy Ross, whose story was never about designing one flag but about producing many – and being one of thousands of women whose labor was essential to the nation’s origins.

Making of a legend

In 1870, Ross’ grandson William J. Canby recounted the family’s story about Betsy Ross and the making of the first flag in a speech to the Pennsylvania Historical Society. Historians and members of the public greeted the tale with skepticism.

Canby’s best efforts notwithstanding, no archival evidence then – or since – has confirmed that Ross fabricated the first U.S. flag.

Still, the story gained traction. For a long while, Ross was a popular historical figure in U.S. culture, up there with the likes of Martha Washington and Abigail Adams. One of the earliest biopics imagined her life story, and her name graced everything from dolls to decanters. Over time, thousands of people began visiting her supposed home at 239 Arch St. in the Old City neighborhood of Philadelphia. The landmark is preserved as a house museum.

As late as the 1980s, history professor Michael Frisch reported that “college students asked to name any person from pre–Civil War America who is not a politician or military figure” included Ross “year after year.”

But in the years following the 1976 U.S. bicentennial, Ross’ fame was already cresting. Today many Americans aren’t entirely sure whether she was real or fictional.

A brick rowhome with a white door and a US flag
The Betsy Ross House museum in Philadelphia.
Gilbert Carrasquillo via Getty Images

Widow turned aspiring government contractor

Elizabeth Griscom Ross was indeed real. She was an upholstery worker who lived in Philadelphia from the 1750s to the 1830s. While no written record confirms the flag story, ample evidence survives to document the successful multigenerational flagmaking enterprise that she launched and then sustained with her daughter and granddaughters.

According to an oral history recorded with Ross’ youngest daughter, sometime in the 1760s a young Elizabeth Griscom, who was born in 1752, joined a sister employed by Philadelphia upholsterer John Webster. Ross learned the craft of upholstery as well as the making of tassels and fringe from Ann King, who oversaw women’s work there.

Ross married upholstery apprentice John Ross in 1773, and the pair launched a small shop. John died in January 1776. Ross’ second husband, mariner Joseph Ashburn, served the Revolution as a privateer and died in an English prison. In 1783, another privateer, John Claypoole, became Ross’ third husband, and the couple raised a large family and lived full lives in the city.

My take on the legend’s veracity is that it is partly accurate, partly not, and there isn’t really any “first” flag.

What is certainly true is this: Ross found herself widowed in 1776 just as Philadelphia braced for British forces, an effort that required the building of a navy and new flags representing the Americans. Women all around the seaport were getting contracts to stitch flags, and Ross surely wanted in.

The “Did she or didn’t she sew the ‘first flag’?” question is usually framed as a story of design, but it’s not: It’s a story of production.

Ross, drawing on years of experience, was saying to these potential clients, “If you want a lot of these flags, and fast, five-pointed stars work better.”

Women’s massive wartime effort

When Betsy Ross told this story later to her children and grandchildren, at the heart of the story is a young craftswoman who met the “Father of Our Country” – and believed she taught him something.

Understanding Ross’ real life is important because her story offers a view of women’s massive wartime production of flags, uniforms, tents, knapsacks and more – and because of the deep pride she and women like her felt in their contributions to the independence movement.

Hundreds of Philadelphia women – including, briefly, Ross – manufactured ordnance for the Schuylkill arsenal. White, Black, Indigenous, enslaved and free women provided labor in the form of nursing, cooking, and making and maintaining clothes that was essential to military encampments. Women shaped diplomacy directly, especially among Indigenous peoples, and indirectly as they shared their perspectives with husbands, fathers and sons. They also managed affairs for absent family and stretched scarce resources to sustain wartime households.

Whatever she did or did not offer to the making of the first U.S. flag, Elizabeth Griscom Ross Ashburn Claypoole certainly enjoyed a long career in flagmaking.

The best documentation for this came just before the War of 1812. When Purveyor of public supplies Tench Coxe needed flags, he steered contracts to the onetime Elizabeth Ross, now known as Elizabeth Claypoole. In 1808, for instance, Coxe recorded that yards of blue fabric were en route to her; weeks later, the craftswoman submitted a bill for two garrison flags, two silk flags and seven regimental colors.

In 1810, she was contracted for six 18-by-24-foot garrison flags for a military installation at New Orleans. These flags unfolded to 432 square feet and required more than 100,000 stitches. They must have been well received because another order followed, for 46 garrison flags, which she was to deliver “with all dispatch” to the arsenal. Orders also came in from the Indian Department to produce dozens of flags used in diplomatic exchanges with Native nations.

By the time the U.S. went to war with England a second time in 1812, flags by Elizabeth Claypoole, aka “Betsy Ross,” flew all around the United States.

Over her long career, Betsy Ross produced an unknown number of flags – the hundred or so recorded in archival sources represent a fraction of her total output. As the U.S. observes the 250th anniversary of its independence, Ross’ real life – today fully interpreted by the dedicated staff of the Betsy Ross House – offers a view into the lives of working women across America whose wartime labor helped build a nation.

Read more of our stories about Philadelphia, or sign up for our Philadelphia newsletter on Substack.

The Conversation

Marla Miller receives funding from the National Park Service as a consultant providing expertise on women and the the American Revolution.

ref. What Betsy Ross’ real story tells us about women’s work in the Revolution − and why it still matters 250 years later – https://theconversation.com/what-betsy-ross-real-story-tells-us-about-womens-work-in-the-revolution-and-why-it-still-matters-250-years-later-276582

The ever-evolving Latino vote is rapidly shifting away from Trump and Republicans

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Matt A. Barreto, Professor of Political Science, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs

In 2024, Trump and other Republicans scored notable gains in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, along with other heavily Hispanic areas. Getty Images/Michael Gonzalez

In 2024, Donald Trump dramatically improved his performance among nearly all groups of voters from four years earlier. Trump’s growth among Hispanic voters was especially notable, increasing by more than 10 points from 2020 to 2024, at least according to exit polls.

This led to a considerable amount of commentary speculating that Hispanic voters, historically more supportive of Democrats, might continue shifting toward the GOP.

News reports suggesting Latinos were critical to Trump’s 2024 victory were, in our view, overblown. Even if Latinos had not shifted, Trump still would have won in 2024.

Yet there is no question that over the past three election cycles, Latino voters – Latino men under 40, in particular – have shifted right. That change has benefited GOP candidates, even as the majority of Latinos still voted for Democrats.

However, evidence from general elections in 2025 in places such as New Jersey, New York and Virginia, as well as special elections in 2026, suggest an abrupt correction is underway, with some of the Latino voters who backed Trump now swinging back to the Democrats.

As political scientists and pollsters who study Hispanic voting trends, we are concerned with the question of whether these latest movements are real or simply a function of fluctuating Latino Democratic turnout rates. In other words, are Latinos broadly changing their votes back to Democrats, or are Latinos who remained loyal to the Democrats now more angry and fired up?

Survey and election data suggest it’s a bit of both. So what does this portend for the future of American politics?

Latino voting trends

The history of the Latino vote nationwide had for decades been one of long-term stability. Historically, Democrats enjoyed an approximate 65% to 35% advantage over Republicans.

That advantage shrank marginally after Republican President Ronald Reagan signed the Immigration Reform and Control Act in 1986, providing a path to citizenship for millions. But the more familiar two-thirds advantage for the Democratic Party returned following passage of Proposition 187, a 1994 anti-immigrant initiative in California that ultimately mobilized Latinos against Republicans.

A man wearing a poncho and a mask that says 'no justice, no peace' bangs on a drum during a protest.
Trump’s immigration policies have triggered widespread protests, including among Latinos.
AP Photo/Eric Gay

Another effort at GOP outreach to Hispanic voters culminated in President George W. Bush taking approximately 40% of the Latino vote in 2004. That growth, however, soon eroded in the wake of anti-immigrant legislation passed by the Republican-controlled House in 2005 and 2006.

The successful campaigns of Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, as well as Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful 2016 campaign against Trump, saw Democrats reaping a relatively high level of Latino support, peaking at a 3-to-1 advantage in 2012.

That made Trump’s improvements among Latinos in 2020 and 2024 feel, for some, particularly unexpected. He lodged notable breakthroughs in parts of Florida, where he carried Miami-Dade County, and Texas, where he flipped the historically Democratic Rio Grande Valley.

Some Latinos question whether Democrats have delivered

It should not have been such a surprise. There has been a history of sizable shares of Latinos supporting Republican candidates. For instance, both former President George W. Bush and his brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, performed well with Latinos in Texas and Florida.

For two decades, Democrats have campaigned among Latinos on the promise of comprehensive immigration reform and an economic policy that would level the playing field, including raising the federal minimum wage, providing universal pre-K education and promoting affordable housing.

Many Latinos feel they are still waiting for these Democratic policies to be enacted, let alone improve their lives.

Democratic trifectas in 2009-10 and 2021-22 – when the party held both chambers of Congress, along with the presidency – failed to produce meaningful movement on immigration policy. Many Latinos felt their daily lives had not improved, as they faced high costs of living, expensive housing markets and rising health care costs. While House Democrats did pass numerous bills to address these topics, Senate moderates proved difficult to persuade.

A female member of Congress in a black-and-white polka dotted jackets stands at a lectern and speaks during a news conference.
Members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva, have criticized Trump’s immigration stance.
AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Given these shortcomings, running on the message that “the GOP are bad guys” only gets Democrats so far. In 2024, surveys and focus groups of Hispanic voters made it clear that not everyone was convinced by this characterization. The frustrations of working-class families during the Biden administration were real, whereas fears of mass deportations and other social chaos that a second Trump term might portend were, at that point, conjecture.

The Trump campaign specifically promised widespread action against immigrants, but many of our Latino focus group participants felt this was bluster. They believed that Trump’s actions would be targeted against blatant criminals and that his policies would not affect their families and friends.

They did not believe the worst-case scenarios presented by Vice President Kamala Harris and other Democrats during the campaign. Despite often not liking Trump, his economic promises felt good during the 2024 affordability crisis.

Latinos shifting back left?

Many Latinos are now quite upset with Trump. The 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia point to dramatic 25-point changes in the Latino vote in the Democrats’ direction, compared with Trump’s 2024 performance.

In December 2025, the first Democrat was elected mayor of Miami since 1997, with Latino support. A Democrat won a heavily Republican state legislative district in Texas in February 2026 with an estimated 79% of the Latino vote. Most recently, Latino voter turnout surged to record levels in the March Democratic primary in Texas.

Majorities of Latino voters believe that their economic fortunes have declined since Trump returned to the White House. Moreover, they expect the situation to worsen over the next year. In March 2026, The Economist reported that Trump’s support among Latinos had fallen to 22%.

In a bipartisan poll by UnidosUS released in November 2025, only 14% of Latino voters said their lives were better after one year under Trump, while 39% said they had gotten worse. Looking ahead, 50% expected things to get worse still in 2026, while only 20% were optimistic about their economic future. Two-thirds of Latino voters felt that Trump and the Republicans were not focusing enough on improving the economy for people like them.

What’s more, mass deportations have happened under the second Trump administration. The vast majority of those detained for deportation, including those who have died, had no criminal record.

Latinos are overwhelmingly opposed to federal troops in U.S. cities, according to our polling; 41% fear legal residents and U.S. citizens getting caught up in enforcement actions. The No. 1 immigration concern for Latino voters remains a path to citizenship for Dreamers – the undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children – and for immigrants who have worked and paid taxes in the country for more than 20 years but lack formal status.

Among Latinos who actually voted for Trump, many would not do so again. Our poll suggests that 22% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 would not vote for him again. By contrast, Democrats retain support from 93% of their 2024 Latino voters.

The long-term effects of the Trump presidency on the Latino electorate are difficult to predict, but for now party preferences have shifted firmly back toward the Democrats. Among voters in the UnidosUS poll, 55% said they felt the Democrats “care a great deal” about Latinos, compared with 29% saying they felt that way about the GOP. At the same time, 33% of Latino voters see the GOP as “hostile,” compared with just 7% who believe this about the Democrats.

If the recent leftward shift is sustained, or the earlier shift to the right was illusory, the effects on the politics of 2026 could be large, potentially putting control of Congress in the hands of Latino voters. There are 46 House districts where the number of registered voters who are Latino exceeds the total margin of victory for those seats in 2024, with 23 currently held by Republicans and 23 currently held by Democrats.

Latino voters need to believe that politicians truly care about their concerns and will work to implement a plan to create equal opportunities for the nation’s largest minority group to achieve the American dream. We believe the candidates able to make that pitch convincingly will be the most successful.

The Conversation

Matt A. Barreto is principal and co-founder of the polling firm BSP Research. BSP Research has conducted polling for non-profit and advocacy organizations, businesses, and candidates. Barreto has, in the past, directly consulted with Democratic candidates for House, Senate and the presidency.

Gary M. Segura is principal and co-founder of the polling firm BSP Research. BSP Research has conducted polling for non-profit and advocacy organizations, businesses, and candidates. Segura has, in the past, directly consulted with Democratic candidates for House, Senate and the presidency.

ref. The ever-evolving Latino vote is rapidly shifting away from Trump and Republicans – https://theconversation.com/the-ever-evolving-latino-vote-is-rapidly-shifting-away-from-trump-and-republicans-277335

Can you survive inside a tornado? This scientist did by accident – he’s lucky to be alive

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Perry Samson, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science, University of Michigan

Tornadoes can be erratic and extremely dangerous. Brent Koops/NOAA Weather in Focus Photo Contest 2015, CC BY

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.


Can a person survive inside a tornado? – Sophia, age 14, Greencastle, Indiana


I have seen the center of a monster. Most people describe the sound of a tornado as like a freight train, but up close, it’s more like a thousand screaming jet engines. I am one of the few people on Earth who has driven into a tornado and lived to tell the tale.

While it might sound like a scene from a Hollywood blockbuster involving a high-tech armored truck, my experience was much more dangerous and terrifying.

I am an atmospheric scientist who studies tornadoes, but I am only alive today because of split-second decisions and a massive amount of dumb luck. Believe me, I do not want to ever be in that situation again.

A vehicle drives down a rural road, away from a large tornado.
Tornadoes vary in size and intensity.
Hank Schyma, used with permission

The day the sky broke

It started in northwest Kansas, where I was studying supercell thunderstorms – the kind that produce tornadoes – with a team of students from the University of Michigan.

We were positioned under a thunderstorm that was so dark, we had to turn on our vehicles’ headlights in the middle of the day. Suddenly, a tornado formed and began charging directly toward us.

The storm the author survived, filmed by students who were in nearby vehicles at the time.

The students were in other vehicles and got away, but my car was quickly swallowed by a cloud of flying debris so thick that I couldn’t even see my own hood.

With my options disappearing, I made a desperate move: I turned the car directly into the wind, hoping the vehicle’s aerodynamics would keep us pinned to the ground rather than being flipped like a toy.

The physics of fear

When you’re inside a tornado’s vortex, your body experiences things the news cameras can’t capture:

  • The pressure change: A tornado is a localized area of rapidly changing pressure. Your ears don’t just “pop” – they ache, as if your head is being squeezed by giant hands.

  • The solid wind: We measured wind speeds of almost 150 mph (241 kph) nearby, but inside the vortex, they were likely much higher. At those speeds, air hits you with the force of a solid object.

  • The soup of darkness: In movies, the “eye” is a clear space. In reality, it’s a debris ball – a brownish-black soup of pulverized soil, trees and buildings. It was so dark that my camera couldn’t even register a picture.

A tornado tears apart a building, sending a cloud of fast-moving debris into the air.
A tornado’s winds can reach 300 mph (482 kph). Part of the danger is all the debris blowing around at fast speeds.
Hank Schyma, used with permission

As debris slammed into my windshield, I was terrified I’d be crushed by flying materials – tornadoes can pick up fences, wood and metal from buildings, tree branches, even cows. Textbook advice says to get into a ditch so you’re lying flat and might be more protected from flying debris. But the wind was so violent, I couldn’t even open the car door. I just stayed low and prayed.

The making of a monster

How does this severe of a storm even happen? It takes a perfect, violent recipe of atmospheric ingredients:

  • Fuel: A tornado needs warm, muggy air (water vapor) near the ground with dry air above it. This creates the potential for rising air, but only if the atmosphere is unstable enough to overcome “the cap.”

  • The cap: A thin “inversion” layer of stable air acts like a lid on that warm moist air, bottling it up until the moist air punches through.

  • The dry line: The dry line is where warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and dry air from the west meet. The advancing hot, dry air is actually heavier than muggy air, and this dry air pushes the moist air upward, disrupting the cap.

  • Wind shear: Surface winds from the south and upper winds from the west create a horizontal rolling motion in the atmosphere. When the air is pushed upward, that rotation becomes vertical, creating what’s known as a mesocyclone.

  • The jet stream: About 5 to 7 miles (8 to 11 kilometers) up, the jet stream is a fast-moving river of air. Disturbances within it can create areas that pull air upward from below and lower surface pressure.

How wind shear makes the winds roll and form tornadoes. NOAA.

Together, these ingredients can create the powerful, rotating vortex that you know as a tornado.

These storms can have winds up to 300 mph (482 kph) and leave a long path of destruction, sometimes more than a mile (1.6 kilometers) wide. They can stay on the ground for seconds or many minutes, tearing apart buildings and trees in their path. Where they will travel is hard to predict, so getting to safety should be a priority.

The monster’s lesson

When the storm passed, the silence was jarring. My rental car was mired in mud, the antenna was bent in half, and bits of straw were embedded in every single seam of the car’s body.

Tornadoes are extremely dangerous. Sixty-one people were killed by tornadoes in the U.S. in 2025, and many more were injured by flying debris. Make sure you know what to do when a tornado alert sounds – follow the alert’s advice and get to safety immediately.

Four people stand beside a truck with the NOAA logo.
Scientists working with the National Severe Storms Lab watch a thunderstorm’s evolution in Kansas.
Mike Coniglio, NOAA NSSL/VORTEX II, CC BY

When scientists chase storms, they are not trying to experience tornadoes – they are trying to measure the small-scale processes inside storms that cannot be observed in other ways. Many of the key processes that produce tornadoes occur within a few hundred meters of the ground and evolve over minutes, which means radars, satellites and weather stations often miss them.

Seeing a tornado and the damage it causes is a powerful reminder that people are not in control of everything. It serves as a warning to be wise and ready for anything. Sophisticated research using drones and radar is the smart way to study these monsters – seeing them from the inside is definitely not.

Willa Connolly, a student at Tappan Middle School in Ann Arbor, Michigan, contributed to this article.

The Conversation

Perry Samson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Can you survive inside a tornado? This scientist did by accident – he’s lucky to be alive – https://theconversation.com/can-you-survive-inside-a-tornado-this-scientist-did-by-accident-hes-lucky-to-be-alive-278648