Category: MIL-OSI

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jenna Carr, Graduate Teaching Fellow and Sociology PhD Researcher, University of Liverpool

A decade ago, the National Crime Agency identified a new drug supply method. Before then, drug supply was predominantly between user-dealers – people supplying their social circles to fund their drug use, rather than for commercial gain.

In 2015, police outside of London identified a pattern of more frequent arrests of young people and vulnerable adults, implicated in drug supply outside of their local areas. They were also frequently suspected to be associated with members of criminal gangs. Thus, “county lines” was born.

The National Crime Agency used the term “county lines” to describe the phone or “deal” line used to organise the sale of drugs – mainly heroin and crack cocaine – from cities with oversaturated supplies, to rural, coastal areas with less supply.

The deal line was controlled by gang members based in the inner city area, such as London or Liverpool, known as “exporter” areas. The sale of drugs would be completed by a young or vulnerable person who had been exploited and sometimes trafficked out of their home areas to rural “importer” areas, such as north Wales and Cornwall. The crossing of local authority and police boundaries made county lines difficult to police, and to safeguard those who had been exploited.

County lines is notably violent. It involves gang violence, knife crime, drug misuse, sexual exploitation and modern-day slavery.

Ten years on, county lines as a supply model continues to evolve. A recent assessment by the National Police Chiefs’ Council found that the practice is becoming more localised, with fewer lines running between police force boundaries, and more running from one end of a force to the other end. It is also no longer limited to the supply of class A substances, with police reporting seizures of cannabis, cash and weapons.

Researchers are now suggesting that the term “county lines” itself is outdated, and instead should be replaced with a term that focuses more on the exploitation involved, rather than drug supply.

Who gets involved

County lines affects both children and vulnerable adults. The government has estimated 14,500 children to be at risk of child criminal exploitation, but this is likely to be an underestimation. Particular risk factors include being between 15 and 17 years old, experiences of neglect and abuse, economic vulnerability, school exclusion and frequent episodes of missing from home.

Cuckooing, where a gang will take over homes as a base for drug supply, largely affects vulnerable adults, rather than children.

One challenge in responding to county lines is that vulnerability can be difficult to recognise.
Victims and perpetrators of exploitation are often one and the same. Often, victims will be unwilling to cooperate with police, out of fear of legal consequences and repercussions from their exploiters.

Those who have been exploited into participating in county lines often do not accept that they are a victim – they may think they are profiting from their involvement, both financially and socially. The ongoing cost of living crisis draws young and vulnerable people into county lines as a response to poverty and lack of legitimate and financially viable opportunities.

Responding to county lines

My ongoing research looks at the development of county lines policy and responses to the problem over the last ten years. Responses to county lines have been mainly led by law enforcement, with coordinated police “crackdowns”. But research shows that high-profile police operations are largely symbolic, and have the effect of drawing vulnerable people into the criminal justice system, which creates further harm.

One important development has been the use of the Modern Slavery Act to prosecute county lines. The purpose of this is to offer a legal defence for someone who has been exploited into selling drugs. But research has shown, rather than acting as a safeguard and a defence, it acts as a “gateway into criminalisation”.

If someone crosses the boundary of being a victim to becoming a perpetrator of exploitation, they can also find themselves being subjected to punitive criminal justice responses under the Modern Slavery Act. This is especially true for black men and boys, who have historically been treated more harshly, for example through stop and search, in relation to drug crime.

It’s become clear that county lines is an issue that criminal justice alone cannot respond to. Those who are at risk require safeguarding, not criminalisation. To this end, the government funds a specialist county lines victim support service that operates in the four main exporter locations.

But the availability of this support service only in exporter locations shows that the county lines response is a postcode lottery. Police forces in importer areas have fewer resources to dedicate to training officers to deal with complex county lines cases. A consistent national approach is still required.

What’s next?

The current government is planning to make child criminal exploitation and cuckooing specific criminal offences through new legislation. This has been celebrated as a success by child safety charities.

But should more criminalisation be the priority? Research shows that drug prohibition and punitive responses are ineffective at preventing young people and vulnerable adults becoming involved in county lines. The demand for drugs and structural issues such as poverty are fuelling county lines – policing alone cannot address this.

Instead of punitive legal responses, public health and addressing the demand for drugs should be priority. Investment is needed in support services and social care, which have been decimated by austerity cuts, to build a society where vulnerable people do not need to become involved in drug supply.

Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

Jenna Carr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What we’ve learned in ten years about county lines drug dealing – https://theconversation.com/what-weve-learned-in-ten-years-about-county-lines-drug-dealing-261438

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mooyoung Han, Professor of Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University

Droughts and floods are becoming more frequent and more severe across the globe. The cause is often rain — either too little or too much. The monsoon regions of the world, where societies have weathered cycles of drought and deluge for thousands of years, hold essential lessons about rainwater monitoring and conservation.

In Korea, one such lesson dates back to the 15th century. In 1441, during the reign of King Sejong, Korea established the world’s first official rain gauge (cheugugi) — a cylindrical copper instrument — and also created a state-administered rain monitoring network.

This wasn’t just a technical invention; it was part of a wider policy. On September 3 of that year, according to the Annals of the Choson Dynasty (a Unesco Memory of the World record), local magistrates across the country were ordered to measure rainfall regularly and report it to the central government.

This system represented one of the earliest forms of climate data governance and set a precedent for valuing rain as a measurable, manageable and fairly governed resource — a public good to be shared and respected. It also reflected a philosophical tradition in Korea of respecting rain not as a curse, but as a gift — one that must be understood, welcomed and shared.

India too has a rich tradition of rainwater harvesting, spanning from the Vedic period and the Indus–Sarasvati Valley civilisation (3,000–1,500BC) to the 19th century. Throughout diverse ecological zones, Indian communities developed decentralised systems to capture and store rainwater. The archaeological site of Dholavira in Gujarat, for example, featured sophisticated reservoirs designed to collect monsoon runoff.

Historical records, including ancient inscriptions, temple documents and folk traditions, indicate that these systems were not only engineered but also governed, with established rules for sharing, maintaining and investing in water as a communal resource. In some regions of India, every third house had its own well. Although these practices declined during colonial rule, they are now being revived by local communities, government initiatives, and non-governmental organisations.

The revival of traditional wells is gaining momentum, particularly in urban areas facing water scarcity. For example in the city of Bengaluru in southern India, local communities and organisations are using age-old well-digging techniques to tap into shallow aquifers. These efforts are often supported by the state or central government, as well as specialists and organisations including the Biome Environmental Trust, Aga Khan Trust for Culture, Indian National Trust for Art and Cultural Heritage, and the Centre for Science and Environment.

India’s current prime minister has also launched a campaign called Jal Shakti Abhiyan: Catch the Rain as part of a nationwide effort to restore and promote community-led rainwater harvesting.

Reviving ancient wisdom

In Korea, there’s also been a resurgence of this ancient wisdom in modern contexts. Although urban initiatives like the Star City rainwater management system show promise, the movement towards reviving old practices like rainwater harvesting is still growing.

Meanwhile in Cambodia, the Rain School Initiative empowers students and teachers to manage rainwater for drinking and climate education. Rainwater is not just a technical solution — it is a cultural key to resilience. It offers autonomy, sustainability and hope.

That is why we propose to establish UN Rain Day on September 3, in recognition of Korea’s historical contribution and in celebration of global rain literacy. It is a symbolic date that reminds us how rain has shaped civilisations and how it can shape our future — if only we choose to listen to the wisdom of water.

Designating international days has proven effective in raising awareness and catalysing global action. For instance, World Water Day (March 22) has spurred international cooperation and policymaking on water issues since its establishment in 1993. World Toilet Day (November 19) has elevated the global conversation around sanitation and public health.

A UN Rain Day would spotlight rain as a vital yet often overlooked resource. This is something that’s especially crucial for climate adaptation in monsoon regions and beyond.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What the world can learn from Korea’s 15th-century rain gauge – https://theconversation.com/what-the-world-can-learn-from-koreas-15th-century-rain-gauge-261530

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Kenyon, Senior Lecturer in Population Health, University of Lancashire

Every day, we’re faced with constant opportunities for stimulation. With 24/7 access to news feeds, emails and social media, many of us find ourselves scrolling endlessly, chasing our next hit of dopamine. But these habits are fuelling our stress – and our brains are begging for a break.

What our brains really need is some much needed time off from concentrating. By not consciously focusing on anything and allowing the mind to drift, this can reduce stress and improve cognitive sharpness.

This can often be easier said than done. But attention restoration theory (Art) can help you learn to give your brain space to drift. While this might sound like a fancy name for doing nothing, the theory is supported by neuroscience.

Attention restoration theory was first put forward by psychologists Rachel and Stephen Kaplan in 1989. They theorised that spending time in nature can help to restore focus and attention.

They proposed there are two distinct types of attention: directed attention and undirected attention. Directed attention refers to deliberate concentration – such as studying, navigating through a busy place or posting on social media. Basically, it’s any activity where our brain’s attention is being directed at a specific task.

Undirected attention is when we’re not consciously trying to focus on anything – instead allowing things to gently capture our attention without trying. Think listening to chirping birds or watching leaves gently rustling in the breeze. In these instances, your attention naturally drifts without having to force your focus.

Without time for undirected attention, it’s thought that we experience “attentional fatigue”. This can make it increasingly difficult to focus and concentrate, while distractions become more likely to grab our attention.

In the past, we encountered many situations in our daily lives that we might classify as “boring”. Moments such as waiting for the bus or standing in the supermarket queue. But these dull moments also gave our minds a chance to switch off.

Now, our smartphones give us the opportunity for constant entertainment. Being able to constantly expose ourselves to intense, gripping stimuli offers little mental space for our overworked brains to recover.

But attention restoration theory shows us how important it is to create space for moments that allow our brains to “reset”.

Restoring attention

The origins of Kaplan and Kaplan’s theory can actually be traced back to the 19th century. American psychologist William James was the first to formulate the concept of “voluntary attention” – attention that requires effort. James’ ideas were published against the backdrop of the broader cultural movement of Romanticism, which lauded nature.

Romantic ideas about the restorative power of nature have since been backed by research – with numerous studies showing links between time in nature and lower stress levels, better attention, improvements in mental health, mood and better cognitive function.

The restorative benefits of nature are backed by neuroscience, too. Neuroimaging has shown that activity in the amygdala – the part of the brain associated with stress and anxiety – was reduced when people were exposed to natural environments. But when exposed to urban environments, this activity was not reduced.

Numerous studies have also since backed up Kaplan and Kaplan’s theory that time in nature can help to restore attention and wellbeing. One systematic review of 42 studies found an association with exposure to natural environments and improvements in several aspects of cognitive performance – including attention.

A randomised controlled trial using neuroimaging of the brain found signs of lower stress levels in adults who took a 40-minute walk in a natural environment, compared to participants who walked in an urban environment. The authors concluded that the nature walk facilitated attention restoration.

Research has even shown that as little as ten minutes of undirected attention can result in a measurable uptick in performance on cognitive tests, as well as a reduction in attentional fatigue. Even simply walking on a treadmill while looking at a nature scene can produce this cognitive effect.

Time in nature

There are many ways you can put attention restoration theory to the test on your own. First, find any kind of green space – whether that’s your local park, a river you can sit beside or a forest trail you can hike along. Next, make sure you put your phone and any other distractions away.

Or, when you face boring moments during your day, instead of picking up your phone try seeing the pause as an opportunity to let your mind wander for a bit.

Each of us may find certain environments to be more naturally supportive in allowing us to switch off and disengage the mind. So if while trying to put attention restoration theory into practice you find your brain pulling you back to structured tasks (such as mentally planning your week), this may be sign you should go someplace where it’s easier for your mind to wander.

Whether you’re watching a ladybird crawl across your desk or visiting a vast expanse of nature, allow your attention to be undirected. It’s not laziness, it’s neurological maintenance.

Anna Kenyon has received research funding from the National Academy for Social Prescribing & Natural England, the University of Lancashire, West Yorkshire Health and Care Partnership and the Institute for Citizenship, Society & Change. She is an Associate member of the Faculty of Public Health.

– ref. How letting your mind wander can reset your brain – https://theconversation.com/how-letting-your-mind-wander-can-reset-your-brain-259854

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rachel Woods, Senior Lecturer in Physiology, University of Lincoln

From collagen powders to immunity gummies, supplements are everywhere – in our Instagram feeds, on supermarket shelves and filling our bathroom cabinets. Promising better sleep, glowing skin, sharper focus or even a longer life, they’re marketed as quick fixes for modern health woes.

As a nutritionist, I’m often asked whether supplements are worth the money – and the answer is: it depends. Based on online claims, you might think they can cure almost anything.

While some supplements do have a valuable role in certain circumstances, they are often misunderstood and frequently oversold. Yet many people are unaware of the risks, the limitations and the marketing tricks behind the labels.

Here are five things I wish more people knew before buying supplements.

1. Start with food, not supplements

If you can get a nutrient from your diet, that is almost always the better option. The UK’s Food Standards Agency defines a food supplement as a product “intended to correct nutritional deficiencies, maintain an adequate intake of certain nutrients, or support specific physiological functions”. In other words, supplements are there to support your diet, not replace real foods.

Whole foods offer much more than isolated nutrients. For example, oily fish like salmon provides not just omega-3 fats, but also protein, vitamin D, selenium and other beneficial compounds. These interact in ways we don’t fully understand, and their combined effect is difficult, if not impossible, to replicate in supplement form.

Scientists have tried to isolate the “active ingredients” in fruit and vegetables to recreate their benefits in pills, but without success. The advantages seem to come from the complete food, not one compound.

That said, there are circumstances where supplements are necessary. For instance, folic acid is recommended before and during pregnancy to reduce the risk of neural tube defects in the foetus. Vitamin D is advised during winter months when sunlight is limited. People following a vegan diet may need vitamin B12, since it is mostly found in animal products.

2. You might not realise you’re taking too much

It is far easier to take too much of a supplement than it is to overdo it with food. In the short term, this might lead to side effects such as nausea or diarrhoea. But long-term overuse can have serious consequences.

Many people take supplements for years without knowing whether they need them or how much is too much. Fat-soluble vitamins like A, D, E, and K are stored in the body rather than excreted. Too much vitamin D, for example, can lead to a build-up of calcium, which may damage the kidneys and heart, as well as weakening bones. High doses of vitamin A can cause liver damage, birth defects in pregnancy, and decreased bone density.

Even water-soluble vitamins can cause problems, with long-term overuse of vitamin B6 being linked to nerve damage.

Since most people don’t regularly check their blood nutrient levels, they often don’t realise something is wrong until symptoms appear.

3. Don’t trust social media advice

Spend a few minutes online and you will probably see supplements promoted as “immune-boosting”, “natural”, or “detoxifying”. These words can sound convincing, but they have no scientific definition. They are marketing terms.

The Food Standards Agency is clear that supplements “are not medicinal products” and “cannot exert a pharmacological, immunological or metabolic action”. Yet many online claims suggest otherwise. This kind of marketing, sometimes called “healthwashing”, gives the impression that supplements have powers they do not. Supplements are not subject to the same testing and regulation as medicines. This means they can be poorly formulated, wrongly dosed, or mislabelled.

The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has rules about how health claims can be made, including on social media. But enforcement is difficult, especially with influencer marketing and affiliate schemes. Multi-level marketing (MLM) schemes add further complexity. Sellers, often with no medical or scientific training, promote products using personal anecdotes rather than evidence. While the ASA provides specific guidance on how MLM sellers can advertise supplements, these rules are frequently ignored, are rarely enforced and often slip through regulatory gaps, meaning there are some truly astonishing claims being made.

4. The supplement industry is more about sales than science

The global supplement market is worth over £100 billion. Like any major industry, its goal is growth and profit. This influences how products are developed and marketed.
If a supplement truly worked, it would be recommended by doctors, not influencers.

Some supplements are supported by evidence, but they tend to be the less eye-catching ones, such as iron or vitamin D. Many others are advertised with claims that stretch far beyond what the research shows and are often promoted by people with no formal training in nutrition or healthcare.

5. Some supplements aren’t safe for everyone

Being available over the counter does not mean a supplement is safe. Even products labelled as “natural” can interact with medicines or cause harm.

St John’s Wort, sometimes used for low mood, can have dangerous side effects if taken alongside some antidepressants, birth control and blood pressure medications. Vitamin K can interfere with blood thinners like warfarin. High-dose iron can cause digestive problems and affect how some antibiotics are absorbed.

Many supplements haven’t been tested for safety in pregnant people. Others, like high-dose vitamin A, are known to be harmful in pregnancy and can pass through breast milk. If you’re pregnant, breastfeeding, taking medication or managing a health condition, speak to a pharmacist, GP or dietitian before starting a new supplement.

Supplements can support health when there is a specific need, but they are not a cure-all. Before spending money on a product with big promises, ask yourself: do I really need this, or would I be better off spending the money on nutritious food?

Rachel Woods does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Five things I wish people knew about supplements – by a nutritionist – https://theconversation.com/five-things-i-wish-people-knew-about-supplements-by-a-nutritionist-262099

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lauren A. Siegel, Senior Lecturer in Tourism and Events, University of Greenwich

It’s no secret that social media has changed travel. Holidaymakers increasingly seek to imitate images posted by influencers and their peers on platforms like Instagram and TikTok. In our increasingly digital world, travellers now chase the perfect shot like treasure hunters. That can mean navigating crowds, long lines and sometimes even danger – all for content from the world’s most “Instagrammable” spots.

In a widely viewed TikTok video, influencer Zoe Rae (the sister of Love Island star Molly-Mae Hague) voiced her disappointment after visiting Bali. Apparently, it did not look as it did when she saw it online. Her comments attracted a backlash, with critics arguing she was simply experiencing the reality behind the content she and others have helped to promote.

Research has found that many influencers and social media users participate in an “aesthetic economy”. That is, travel is “performed” for likes, views and brand deals. The result? Holidaymakers seeking out highly photogenic (“Instagrammable”) destinations from which to stage their content.

Sometimes “getting the shot” becomes more important than any meaningful cultural exchange between hosts and guests. The behaviour of social media-induced tourists has been found to be more irresponsible than that of other types of travellers.

There were 379 selfie-related deaths between 2008-21, and the quest for the perfect photo can also lead to trespassing and vandalism. Additionally, studies have found that social-media-induced tourists can cause varying levels of damage to the hotspots they visit. This can include environmental erosion, traffic congestion, pollution, increased rubbish and generally making daily life difficult for locals.

Stage-managed selfies

But the demand has fuelled the development of shadow economies like “selfie museums”. These have begun to emerge around the world: Chicago’s wndr Museum, London’s Selfie Factory, Selfie House in Prague, Brazil’s Museum Selfie Day in Sao Paulo, to name just a few.

Our new study shines a light on these parks – purpose-built, self-contained spaces that give visitors a visually stunning, curated environment in which to create content (most often of themselves). For the price of admission, they get convenient access to lighting, props, professional photographers and backdrops for creating content for social media in “Instagrammable” places.

Selfie parks in Bali, Indonesia, offer rice terraces, swings, nests and other “sceneography” associated with its destination image. And there are add-ons like dress rentals, professional photographers who can follow visitors around the park, and personalised photo-editing services.

Selfie parks can offer soft control over visitors in the form of guards, guides and security cameras to monitor behaviour. And they implement daily safety checks and regularly train staff to ensure guests are supervised as they take photos. This is an important alternative to the sometimes risky behaviour of selfie-seekers in viral hotspots.

Of course, the elephant in the room here might be the commodification and inauthenticity that selfie parks represent. Other research has found that locals can be divided about staged photo opportunities, with some seeing them as inauthentic and gimmicky.

There is an awareness that these encounters do not represent the real life of locals. Others, however, consider the money to be made and employment that these opportunities can provide.

Read more:
Why are people taking selfies in front of the LA wildfires?

Our findings from Bali showed that the selfie parks are extremely successful – with more than 1,500 visitors reported in low season. The offering has been expanded in recent years to add more photo spots, infinity pools and even a day club.

For now, all of Bali’s selfie parks are locally owned and managed. This creates an important source of employment, as well as being a launchpad for entrepreneurship among locals.

The idea of selfie parks may take a bit of getting used to. But having spaces where people can take photos, videos and create social media content safely, while bringing in revenue and employment for local communities, offers a viable solution. This is especially true of the places that struggle most with the negative impacts of tourists motivated by social media.

Love them or loathe them, selfie parks probably aren’t going away. And they may represent a broader shift in how people travel, share and consume experiences. In destinations facing an influx of selfie-seeking visitors, they might just be a surprisingly practical solution.

Other “viral” destinations should consider establishing dedicated spaces in which tourists can create content. Destinations like the island of Santorini, nicknamed Greece’s “Instagram island” amid extreme overcrowding alongside other harms, could be the type of place to benefit.

If so many of today’s tourists are chasing the perfect picture, maybe it makes sense to give them a place designed exactly for that.

Lauren A. Siegel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How selfie parks limit tourism damage to the world’s most ‘Instagrammable’ destinations – https://theconversation.com/how-selfie-parks-limit-tourism-damage-to-the-worlds-most-instagrammable-destinations-262071

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Colin Manning, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Climate Science, Newcastle University

Storm Floris made landfall in northern parts of the UK on the morning of Monday August 4 2025, bringing intense rainfall followed by severe winds throughout the afternoon. The Met Office issued an amber weather warning for much of Scotland and yellow alerts for parts of Northern Ireland and northern England.

Affected areas can expect 20mm–40mm of rain on average, with some areas of Scotland potentially receiving up to 80mm. Wind speeds in exposed and elevated regions could reach 80mph–90mph, while gusts of 50mph-60mph are forecast for much of Scotland.

The storm’s defining characteristic is the unusually strong winds for August, a time typically less prone to severe wind events. The odd seasonal timing has increased the risk to the public, as more people are outdoors, travelling for holidays or staying in campsites. In addition, trees remain in full leaf, making them more likely to be brought down by high winds.

Authorities are anticipating significant disruption to transport and electricity networks largely due to falling trees. This is underlined by recent research showing an increased risk of large power outages during windstorms that occur in summer. A large amount of debris on the ground from trees may also block drainage systems and contribute to localised flooding.

Persistent strong winds will combine with periods of heavy rainfall for the duration of the amber alert, which expires at 23:00. This will create difficult conditions for emergency workers and prevent access to affected locations if roads are blocked, potentially prolonging disruptions to travel and power networks.

Is this typical of summer months?

Storm Floris carries all the hallmarks of a classic mid-latitude storm. These develop due to sharp temperature contrasts between the northern and southern Atlantic Ocean and intensify under the influence of a strong jet stream. This is a core of fast-moving air high in the atmosphere that stretches across the Atlantic and often steers storms towards the UK.

Such conditions are unusual for the summer months, when warmer Atlantic sea temperatures typically weaken these temperature gradients and shift them farther north, closer to the polar regions. However, it is not uncommon for such storms to occur in August.

Notable ones in the past five years include Storm Ellen, which extensively damaged electricity distribution infrastructure in Ireland and led the Irish meterological service to produce and red and amber weather warning for southern parts of Ireland. Previous storms in August cancelled the Boardmasters music festival in Cornwall in 2019 and closed two stages of Leeds festival in 2024.

Floris is classified as a Shapiro-Keyser cyclone, a type distinguished by a warm core encircled by colder air on its north, west and south sides. This structure is visible in the way the storm’s frontal system wraps around its centre, forming a characteristic comma-shape in the clouds around the cyclone centre. Storms of this kind are responsible for a significant number of the UK’s most damaging wind events.

These cyclones often feature sharp pressure gradients and strong low-level airflows, particularly an air stream known as the cold jet, or cold conveyor belt, which can produce severe surface winds. In some cases, they can also generate a sting jet, a narrow stream of air that descends rapidly from around 5km above the land surface, delivering intense, damaging gusts.

Fortunately, satellite imagery suggests that Storm Floris is unlikely to have produced a sting jet. However, the cold jet alone may still drive wind speeds high enough to cause widespread disruption.

These types of storms can also produce intense rainfall along their frontal boundaries, as seen with Storm Floris. Warmer summer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, increasing the potential for heavier downpours. In addition, the heat contributes to a more unstable atmosphere, encouraging strong convective ascents of air that can yield extremely heavy and localised rainfall.

Floris in the future

Research shows that climate change will influence the characteristics of storms like Floris, though not all aspects will be affected equally. Warmer temperatures are expected to make future storms wetter, as increased atmospheric moisture and convective activity enhances rainfall, particularly along frontal systems. However, projections of wind extremes remain more uncertain.

Climate models generally suggest a modest intensification of winter storms over the UK and a decrease in the intensity of summer storms, implying that systems like Floris could become less common. These projections are largely tied to expected changes in Atlantic temperature gradients and the behaviour of the jet stream.

That said, most long-term climate projections rely on relatively coarse-resolution models which often fail to capture key features that drive storm intensification. These include the gulf stream (a warm Atlantic Ocean current) and drivers of extreme winds including the cold jet and sting jet.

A higher-resolution model, like that used in real-time forecasting for Storm Floris, predicts more intense winter windstorms in a warmer climate. Much of this intensification is linked to stronger cold jets and a potential increase in storms that generate sting jets.

Many powerful summer and autumn storms in the UK originate from tropical cyclones such as hurricanes, as seen with Storm Ophelia in 2017. These systems are poorly represented in lower-resolution climate models, yet they contribute significantly to Europe’s most extreme windstorms.

While Storm Floris has no tropical origins, a variety of storms can affect northern Europe at this time of year. The complexity of assessing their risks remains an area of ongoing research.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

Colin Manning receives funding from UKRI.

– ref. Storm Floris: the weather is rarely this windy in August – which makes it more dangerous – https://theconversation.com/storm-floris-the-weather-is-rarely-this-windy-in-august-which-makes-it-more-dangerous-262535