AI is providing emotional support for employees – but is it a valuable tool or privacy threat?

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nelson Phillips, Distinguished Professor of Technology Management, University of California, Santa Barbara

Does AI that monitors and supports worker emotions improve or degrade the workplace? Marta Sher/iStock via Getty Images

As artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT become an increasingly popular avenue for people seeking personal therapy and emotional support, the dangers that this can present – especially for young people – have made plenty of headlines. What hasn’t received as much attention is employers using generative AI to assess workers’ psychological well-being and provide emotional support in the workplace.

Since the pandemic-induced global shift to remote work, industries ranging from health care to human resources and customer service have seen a spike in employers using AI-powered systems designed to analyze the emotional state of employees, identify emotionally distressed individuals, and provide them with emotional support.

This new frontier is a large step beyond using general chat tools or individual therapy apps for psychological support. As researchers studying how AI affects emotions and relationships in the workplace, we are concerned with critical questions that this shift raises: What happens when your employer has access to your emotional data? Can AI really provide the kind of emotional support workers need? What happens if the AI malfunctions? And if something goes wrong, who’s responsible?

The workplace difference

Many companies have started by offering automated counseling programs that have many parallels with personal therapy apps, a practice that has shown some benefits. In preliminary studies, researchers found that in a doctor-patient-style virtual conversation setting, AI-generated responses actually make people feel more heard than human ones. A study comparing AI chatbots with human psychotherapists found the bots were “at least as empathic as therapist responses, and sometimes more so.”

This might seem surprising at first glance, but AI offers unwavering attention and consistently supportive responses. It doesn’t interrupt, doesn’t judge and doesn’t get frustrated when you repeat the same concerns. For some employees, especially those dealing with stigmatized issues like mental health or workplace conflicts, this consistency feels safer than human interaction.

But for others, it raises new concerns. A 2023 study found that workers were reluctant to participate in company-initiated mental health programs due to worries about confidentiality and stigma. Many feared that their disclosures could negatively affect their careers.

Other workplace AI systems go much deeper, analyzing employee communication as it happens – think emails, Slack conversations and Zoom calls. This analysis creates detailed records of employee emotional states, stress patterns and psychological vulnerabilities. All this data resides within corporate systems where privacy protections are typically unclear and often favor the interests of the employer.

illustration of a giant eyeball watching a woman working on a computer at a desk
Employees might feel that AI emotional support systems are more like workplace surveillance.
Malte Mueller/fStop via Getty Images

Workplace Options, a global employee assistance provider, has partnered with Wellbeing.ai to deploy a platform that uses facial analytics to track emotional states across 62 emotion categories. It generates well-being scores that organizations can use to detect stress or morale issues. This approach effectively embeds AI into emotionally sensitive aspects of work, leaving an uncomfortably thin boundary between support and surveillance.

In this scenario, the same AI that helps employees feel heard and supported also generates unprecedented insight into workforce emotional dynamics. Organizations can now track which departments show signs of burnout, identify employees at risk of quitting and monitor emotional responses to organizational changes.

But this type of tool also transforms emotional data into management intelligence, presenting many companies with a genuine dilemma. While progressive organizations are establishing strict data governance – limiting access to anonymized patterns rather than individual conversations – others struggle with the temptation to use emotional insights for performance evaluation and personnel decisions.

Continuous surveillance carried out by some of these systems may help ensure that companies do not neglect a group or individual in distress, but it can also lead people to monitor their own actions to avoid calling attention to themselves. Research on workplace AI monitoring has shown how employees experience increased stress and modify their behavior when they know that management can review their interactions. The monitoring undermines the feeling of safety necessary for people to comfortably seek help. Another study found that these systems increased distress for employees due to the loss of privacy and concerns that consequences would arise if the system identified them as being stressed or burned out.

When artificial empathy meets real consequences

These findings are important because the stakes are arguably even higher in workplace settings than personal ones. AI systems lack the nuanced judgment necessary to distinguish between accepting someone as a person versus endorsing harmful behaviors. In organizational contexts, this means an AI might inadvertently validate unethical workplace practices or fail to recognize when human intervention is critical.

And that’s not the only way AI systems can get things wrong. A study found that emotion-tracking AI tools had a disproportionate impact on employees of color, trans and gender nonbinary people, and people living with mental illness. Interviewees expressed deep concern about how these tools might misread an employee’s mood, tone or verbal queues due to ethnic, gender and other kinds of bias that AI systems carry.

A study looked at how employees perceive AI emotion detection in the workplace.

There’s also an authenticity problem. Research shows that when people know they’re talking to an AI system, they rate identical empathetic responses as less authentic than when they attribute them to humans. Yet some employees prefer AI precisely because they know it’s not human. The feeling that these tools protect your anonymity and freedom from social consequences is appealing for some – even if it may only be a feeling.

The technology also raises questions about what happens to human managers. If employees consistently prefer AI for emotional support, what does that reveal about organizational leadership? Some companies are using AI insights to train managers in emotional intelligence, turning the technology into a mirror that reflects where human skills fall short.

The path forward

The conversation about workplace AI emotional support isn’t just about technology – it’s about what kinds of companies people want to work for. As these systems become more prevalent, we believe it’s important to grapple with fundamental questions: Should employers prioritize authentic human connection over consistent availability? How can individual privacy be balanced with organizational insights? Can organizations harness AI’s empathetic capabilities while preserving the trust necessary for meaningful workplace relationships?

The most thoughtful implementations recognize that AI shouldn’t replace human empathy, but rather create conditions where it can flourish. When AI handles routine emotional labor – the 3 a.m. anxiety attacks, pre-meeting stress checks, processing difficult feedback – managers gain bandwidth for deeper, more authentic connections with their teams.

But this requires careful implementation. Companies that establish clear ethical boundaries, strong privacy protections and explicit policies about how emotional data gets used are more likely to avoid the pitfalls of these systems – as will those that recognize when human judgment and authentic presence remain irreplaceable.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. AI is providing emotional support for employees – but is it a valuable tool or privacy threat? – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-providing-emotional-support-for-employees-but-is-it-a-valuable-tool-or-privacy-threat-266570

College students are now slightly less likely to experience severe depression, research shows – but the mental health crisis is far from over

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Ryan Travia, Associate Vice President for Student Success, Babson College

Some schools have started experimenting with preventive strategies to promote the mental health of their student body. Flashvector/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Many high school seniors across the country are in the throes of college applications – often a high-stakes, anxiety-ridden process.

But the stress doesn’t necessarily stop once students are admitted.

Emotional stress, mental health and tuition cost are the top three reasons that college students drop out, according to a 2023 Gallup poll of 14,032 students.

By most standards, there is a mental health crisis among college students. But the University of Michigan’s healthy minds survey, the country’s largest student mental health study to date, recently found that college students are reporting lower rates of depressive symptoms, anxiety and suicidal thoughts for the third year in a row.

Conducted in 2024 and 2025 and surveying more than 84,000 students across 135 American colleges and universities, the study finds that severe depression symptoms among college students dropped in the past two years to 18% – down from 23% who said they experienced severe depression in 2022. Students who have suicidal thoughts dropped from 15% in 2022 to 11% during 2024 and 2025.

I have worked in student affairs and college health for the past 25 years, leading substance abuse prevention and mental health promotion efforts, and overseeing a range of clinical services. Despite these recent optimistic findings, I’m still alarmed by the prevalence and acuity of students’ mental health concerns nationwide.

A group of sticky notes in neon colors have writing on them that say 'Don't panic' repeatedly and other notes like 'I am good enough.'
Students’ emotional well-being in college has carryover effects into their academic performance, and whether or not they stay in school.
Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

Taking a break

College students experience high levels of stress due to a confluence of factors, including academic pressures, financial concerns and complex social dynamics. Understanding the root causes of students’ stress is an important precursor for schools to come up with effective ways to help students manage their anxiety and succeed in school.

But even when schools offer extensive mental health support programs, students occasionally need to take a break to focus on their health and well-being.

Over the past 10 years, I have reviewed and approved medical withdrawals for 133 students at Babson College. From fall 2015 to early spring 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic, an average of 12 students per year left on medical leave out of the nearly 4,000 students enrolled at the school.

The average number of students taking medical leave then increased by about two people a year from fall 2020 through 2025. Approximately 82% of these cases are mental health-related.

Roughly 70% of these students ultimately return to campus and eventually graduate. In general, very few students who take a leave of absence from school end up returning.

However, there are some schools that use proactive, nondisciplinary policies to support students taking a break to pursue more intensive treatment. These policies can provide clear treatment recommendations and instructions on what conditions students need to be met in order to return to school, resulting in a higher likelihood of the students enrolling once again.

Understanding well-being

Well-being is a word that is top of mind for many higher education leaders, yet colleges and universities do not have a single definition of what well-being means, though it is often a term schools use to talk about students’ mental health. Well-being generally encompasses acknowledging and being comfortable with your feelings, and being equipped to manage stress.

While there is movement toward embedding student mental health and well-being into the very fabric of an institution, many colleges and universities still rely on reaching students in more traditional ways – through health fairs and information tables in the student center, for example.

While these strategies certainly serve a purpose in helping to raise awareness of mental health resources, when used in isolation, they are unlikely to result in actual behavioral change among students.

Students of color, particularly Black and Latino students, are more likely than white students to temporarily withdraw from college.

One step institutions can take: Hire more faculty, staff and mental health counselors who are people of color and can better connect with minority students through shared lived experiences.

Well-being is central to students’ success

In 2007, an undergraduate student at Virginia Tech University shot and killed 32 people, and wounded 17 others, before he died by suicide.

Schools since then have adopted early alert systems – often referred to as care teams – to help identify students who are struggling, either academically, socially or emotionally. The idea is that schools can intervene and get students connected with campus resources such as academic advisers, student success coaches, accessibility services, financial aid and mental health support.

Ongoing training for faculty, staff and students on how to activate these systems of support and make referrals to a care team is critical to their success. The goal is to cast a wide net so students do not fall through the cracks and go unnoticed when they are not mentally well, which is what happened with the Virginia Tech shooter.

Dozens of campuses, including New York University, Indiana State University, the University of North Dakota, The Ohio State University and Harvard University, have also embraced mindfulness practices in recent years, offering breath work and other forms of meditation for their students as free services on campus.

Some campus police departments have also begun using therapy dogs to help support students’ mental health and bolster community engagement.

Other schools, like Stevens Institute of Technology and Princeton University, have stopped keeping labs and libraries open 24/7 as a way to encourage students to take a break and rest – though admittedly most institutions that have made these changes have done so as a result of budget cuts, and less so as a proactive, preventive measure.

Positioning students for success

I have long argued that well-being is central to academic, personal and professional success.

In recent years, I have also encouraged schools to position well-being as the key driver to student academic, personal and professional success.

Research has linked students’ well-being to them staying in school, and findings suggest that colleges can develop targeted mental health programs to improve retention rates. In other words, focusing on the health and well-being of students may, in fact, lead to better outcomes – emotionally, physically and academically.

The Conversation

Ryan Travia received funding from the American College Health Foundation for serving as lead author and researcher for a series of papers on framing and measuring well-being from 2019-2022.

ref. College students are now slightly less likely to experience severe depression, research shows – but the mental health crisis is far from over – https://theconversation.com/college-students-are-now-slightly-less-likely-to-experience-severe-depression-research-shows-but-the-mental-health-crisis-is-far-from-over-267606

Who wins and who loses as the US retires the penny

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Nancy Forster-Holt, Clinical Associate Professor of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, University of Rhode Island

By now, Americans know the strange math of minting: Each penny costs about 4 cents to make. Chances are you have some in a jar, or scattered among pockets, purses and car ashtrays.

As small as it is, the penny punches above its weight culturally. If it ever disappeared, so too might the simple kindness of “take a penny, leave a penny,” alongside timeless classics like penny loafers and the tradition of tossing a penny in a fountain.

But the penny’s days are indeed numbered. The U.S. Mint pressed the last 1-cent coin on Nov. 12, 2025, following a directive from the White House. While pennies will remain legal tender, old ones will gradually be taken out of circulation.

The impact of this change will reach beyond coin jars. Its ripples will be felt as small, cash-reliant Main Street merchants face another test of adaptability in a system that increasingly favors scale, technology and plastic. It will also be felt by people who rely on cash – often people without bank accounts who have the least room to absorb even tiny shifts in price.

My interest comes from my former lives as the chief financial officer of a large credit union and as a small-business owner. Now, I bridge theory and practice as a professor – or “prac-ademic,” as I like to say – studying the challenges facing Main Street businesses.

When the penny goes away, some will win, some will lose – and for some, it’ll be a coin toss.

Heads, they win

The first and most obvious winner is the U.S. government, which will save tens of millions of dollars each year by no longer minting a coin that costs more to make than it’s worth. Ending production seems like an easy call for efficiency’s sake.

Banks and credit unions will likely benefit too. Pennies are disproportionately expensive to handle: Every bag of pennies gets counted, sorted, rolled, verified and shipped back to the Federal Reserve, generating labor and equipment costs that far exceed the coin’s value. Removing the smallest denomination strips out an entire layer of cost and friction from bank operations – savings that scale immediately across thousands of branches.

Another beneficiary, this one hiding in plain sight, is who transports the cash: the armored-carrier industry. For companies such as Loomis and Brink’s, pennies are heavy, low-value cargo, and a logistical money-loser. Removing penny pickups eliminates one of their most inefficient services, reducing fuel use, labor hours and truck wear.

Large retailers will likely also win. Size and scale make it easier to undertake preparations both big and small, such as reprogramming cash registers and stockpiling pennies to hedge against shortages. Larger companies also have the talent and bandwidth to figure out the true costs and benefits of accepting cash or noncash payments. If most of their transactions are already digital, they could be relatively indifferent to the end of the penny.

Large retailers also negotiate lower card processing rates, which are the fees merchants must pay to the card companies every time a customer uses a credit or debit card. These rates aren’t uniform: Large chains get discounted pricing based on sales volume, while small businesses face higher costs for identical transactions. It follows that any policy change leading to more people paying with plastic will disproportionately benefit larger retailers.

To be sure, some banks, credit unions and large retailers have expressed concern and surprise at the pace of the change and the lack of guidance from the federal government. But for most, the penny’s end is a minor operational footnote. Online-only businesses operate in this frictionless world as well – no coins, no counting, no issue.

Tails, they lose

For small, Main Street businesses, the penny’s disappearance highlights the structural disadvantages they already face – and I think it will force a reckoning about what types of payments benefit their bottom lines.

As pennies phase out, local businesses are likely to round cash transactions to the nearest 5 cents, resulting in what economists call a “rounding tax.” Rounding to the nearest nickel could cost businesses and consumers about $6 million annually, according to researchers with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

And it wouldn’t offer much relief if more shoppers turn to plastic and other noncash payments. That’s because most small merchants lack the negotiating power to lower their card-processing fees.

Card acceptance comes with a layered stack of costs for merchants: interchange fees, network assessments, processor markups, gateway fees, chargeback penalties, terminal rentals and more. Together, these average 2.5% to 3.5% per sale for many small businesses. Also, there are expenses related to adopting the latest, greatest payment methods, and then keeping them updated.

Consider a quick-service restaurant where a typical customer spends $14. If that customer pays with a credit card and the business pays an average processing fee of 2.2% plus 10 cents per transaction, each sale incurs about 41 cents in fees. Even low-cost debit cards include fixed per-transaction charges that disproportionately affect businesses when the per-sale average is small. When the average sale is $10 or less, it barely covers the cost to process it as a card transaction.

That said, handling cash also comes at a cost, and it’s not always easy to know what’s best for business. One analysis found that accepting cash costs 53 cents per $100 of sales, compared with $1.12 for accepting debit payments using a signature and 81 cents for PIN-based debit. Of course, businesses also should keep in mind that different customers will have different payment preferences.

And speaking of customers, those who are most likely to feel the pinch from the end of the penny are people who still rely on cash: older adults, lower-income households, people without credit cards or bank accounts – either unbanked or under-banked – and people who budget in cash because it provides firmer spending discipline.

A few cents added to a grocery total or a convenience store purchase may not matter to someone tapping a rewards credit card, but cash-dependent consumers experience those small increases directly, with no offsetting points, perks or end-of-month cash back. And yes, prices often end in 99 cents, which get rounded up, not down. So the burden falls disproportionately on those least equipped to absorb even small, cumulative increases.

For some, it’s a coin toss

Digital-first consumers may barely notice the penny’s disappearance. They tap phones, scan QR codes and use payment apps that will still settle to the exact amount.

While businesses haven’t received final guidance on how to handle payments in the post-penny era, one option is to price electronic transactions to the cent and round cash transactions to the nearest nickel. If that were widely adopted, digital payments alone would remain precise.

Consumers who use cashless payments may believe their choice doesn’t affect how they shop, but behavioral research says otherwise. Credit cards reduce the “pain of paying,” leading people to spend more – often 10% to 20% more than with cash. Credit card rewards programs further incentivize card use. In one last nod to the cost of noncash payments, those rewards are funded by higher merchant fees that ultimately translate into higher retail prices.

Killing the penny makes economic sense for the government and some businesses, yet it also highlights a deeper truth: Efficiency tends to reward the already efficient. For many, however, even when the change is small, every cent still counts.

The Conversation

Nancy Forster-Holt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Who wins and who loses as the US retires the penny – https://theconversation.com/who-wins-and-who-loses-as-the-us-retires-the-penny-267380

First Amendment in flux: When free speech protections came up against the Red Scare

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jodie Childers, Assistant Professor of English, University of Virginia

Hollywood screenwriter Samuel Ornitz speaks before the House Un-American Activities Committee in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 29, 1947. UPI/Bettmann Archive via Getty Images

As the United States faces increasing incidents of book banning and threats of governmental intervention – as seen in the temporary suspension of TV host Jimmy Kimmel – the common reflex for many who want to safeguard free expression is to turn to the First Amendment and its free speech protections.

Yet, the First Amendment has not always been potent enough to protect the right to speak. The Cold War presented one such moment in American history, when the freedom of political expression collided with paranoia over communist infiltration.

In 1947, the House Un-American Activities Committee subpoenaed 10 screenwriters and directors to testify about their union membership and alleged communist associations. Labeled the Hollywood Ten, the defiant witnesses – Alvah Bessie, Herbert Biberman, Lester Cole, Edward Dmytryk, Ring Lardner Jr., John Howard Lawson, Albert Maltz, Samuel Ornitz, Adrian Scott and Dalton Trumbo – refused to answer questions on First Amendment grounds. During his dramatic testimony, Lawson proclaimed his intent “to fight for the Bill of Rights,” which he argued the committee “was trying to destroy.”

They were all cited for contempt of Congress. Eight were sentenced to a year in federal prison, and two received six-month terms. Upon their release, they faced blacklisting in the industry. Some, like writer Dalton Trumbo, temporarily left the country.

As a researcher focused on the cultural cold war, I have examined the role the First Amendment played in the anti-communist hearings during the 1940s and ’50s.

The conviction and incarceration of the Hollywood Ten left a chilling effect on subsequent witnesses called to appear before congressional committees. It also established a period of repression historians now refer to as the Second Red Scare.

Although the freedom of speech is enshrined in the Constitution and prized by Americans, the story of the Second Red Scare shows that this freedom is even more fragile than it may now seem.

The Fifth Amendment communists

After the 1947 hearings, the term “unfriendly” became a label applied by the House Un-American Activities Committee and the press to the Hollywood Ten and any witnesses who refused to cooperate with the committee. These witnesses, who wanted to avoid the fate of the Hollywood Ten, began to shift away from the First Amendment as a legal strategy.

They chose instead to plead the Fifth Amendment, which grants people the right to protect themselves from self-incrimination. Many prominent artists during the 1950s, including playwright Lillian Hellman and singer and activist Paul Robeson, opted to invoke the Fifth when called before the committee and asked about their political affiliations.

The Fifth Amendment shielded hundreds of “unfriendly” witnesses from imprisonment, including artists, teachers and federal workers. However, it did not save them from job loss and blacklisting.

While they could avoid contempt citations by pleading the Fifth, they could not erase the stain of perceived guilt. This legal approach became so widespread that U.S. Sen. Joseph McCarthy, the country’s leading anti-communist crusader, disparaged these witnesses as “Fifth Amendment Communists” and boasted of purging their ranks from the federal government.

Three photos of a man in suit and tie.
Three portraits of Albert Einstein taken in Princeton, N.J., in March 1953.
AP Photo

From Fifth back to First

In 1953, the physicist Albert Einstein became instrumental in revitalizing the force of the First Amendment as a rhetorical and legal tactic in the congressional hearings. Having fled Germany after the Nazis came to power, Einstein took a position at Princeton in 1933 and became an important voice in American politics.

Einstein’s philosophical battle against McCarthyism began with a letter to a Brooklyn high school teacher named William Frauenglass.

In April of that year, Frauenglass was subpoenaed to appear before the Senate Internal Security Subcommittee, “the Senate counterpart” of the House Un-American Activities Committee, to testify about his involvement in an intercultural education seminar. After the hearing, in which Frauenglass declined to speak about his political affiliations, he risked potential termination from his position and wrote to Einstein seeking support.

In his response, Einstein urged Frauenglass and all intellectuals to enact a “revolutionary” form of complete “noncooperation” with the committee.

While Einstein advised noncompliance, he also acknowledged the potential risk: “Every intellectual who is called before one of the committees ought to refuse to testify, i.e., he must be prepared for jail and economic ruin, in short, for the sacrifice of his personal welfare in the interest of the cultural welfare of his country.”

Frauenglass shared his story with the press, and Einstein’s letter was published in full in The New York Times on June 12, 1953. It was also quoted in local papers around the country.

One week later, Frauenglass was fired from his job.

After learning about Einstein’s public position, McCarthy labeled the Nobel laureate “an enemy of America.” That didn’t stop Einstein’s campaign for freedom of expression. He continued to encourage witnesses to rely on the First Amendment.

When the engineer Albert Shadowitz received a subpoena in 1953 to appear before McCarthy’s Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, to answer questions about alleged ties to the Communist Party, he traveled to Einstein’s home to seek out the physicist’s advice. After consulting with Einstein, Shadowitz opted for the First Amendment over the Fifth Amendment.

On Dec. 16, 1953, Shadowitz informed the committee that he had received counsel from Einstein. He then voiced his opposition to the hearing on the grounds of the First Amendment: “I will refuse to answer any question which invades my rights to think as I please or which violates my guarantees of free speech and association.”

He was cited for contempt in August 1954 and indicted that November, facing a potential year in prison and US$1,000 fine. As an indicator of McCarthy’s diminishing power, the charge was thrown out in July 1955 by a federal judge.

A Black man sits in front of a table with a microphone on it.
Singer Paul Robeson appears before the House Un-American Activities Committee in Washington, D.C., in 1956.
Bettmann Archive/Getty Images

The triumph of dissent

Well-known public figures also began to turn away from the Fifth Amendment as a legal tactic and to draw on the First Amendment.

In August 1955, when the folk musician Pete Seeger testified before the House Un-American Activities Committee, he voiced his rejection of the Fifth Amendment defense during the hearing. Seeger asserted that he wanted to use his testimony to call into question the nature of the inquiry altogether.

Pleading the protection of the First Amendment, Seeger refused “to answer any questions” related to his “political beliefs” and instead interrogated the committee’s right to ask such questions “under such compulsion as this.”

When the playwright Arthur Miller was subpoenaed by the committee in 1956, he also refused to invoke the Fifth. Both were cited for contempt. Seeger was sentenced to a year in prison. Miller was given the option to pay a $500 dollar fine or spend 30 days in jail.

As Seeger and Miller fought their appeals in court, McCarthy’s popularity continued to wane, and public sentiment began to shift.

Prompted by Einstein, the noncompliant witnesses in the 1950s reshaped the public discussion, refocusing the conversation on the importance of freedom of expression rather than the fears of imagined communist infiltration.

Although the First Amendment failed to keep the Hollywood Ten out of prison, it ultimately prevailed. Unlike the Hollywood Ten, both Miller and Seeger won their appeals. Miller spent no time in prison and Seeger only one day in jail. Miller’s conviction was reversed in 1958, Seeger’s in 1962. The Second Red Scare was over.

As the Second Red Scare shows, when free speech is under attack, strategic compliance may be useful for individuals. However, bold and courageous acts of dissent are critical for protecting First Amendment rights for everyone.

The Conversation

I met Pete Seeger personally while directing a documentary film about his environmental legacy.

ref. First Amendment in flux: When free speech protections came up against the Red Scare – https://theconversation.com/first-amendment-in-flux-when-free-speech-protections-came-up-against-the-red-scare-267809

‘Jeffrey Epstein is not unique’: What his case reveals about the realities of child sex trafficking

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kate Price, Associate Research Scientist at the Wellesley Centers for Women, Wellesley College

Jeffrey Epstein abuse survivor Lisa Phillips speaks during the press conference on the Epstein Files Transparency Act in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 18, 2025. Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images

Congress on Nov. 18, 2025, passed legislation that calls on the Justice Department to release records related to Jeffrey Epstein, the late convicted sex offender. Those records on the federal investigation of Epstein and his accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, have brought renewed attention to sex trafficking. Alfonso Serrano, a politics editor at The Conversation, spoke with Kate Price, an associate research scientist at the Wellesley Centers for Women at Wellesley College, where she studies child sexual exploitation and child sex trafficking policy.

What is child sex trafficking and how does it differ from other kinds of trafficking?

It is a child being traded for sex via force, fraud or coercion. These are children who are under the age of 18. Often what happens, in terms of victim blaming, if a child is, say, 15, 16, 17, there’s this level of blame from perpetrators, the media, relatives, law enforcement, jurors: “She knew what she was doing.” I recently heard this with the Epstein files back in the news: “He wasn’t into like 8-year-olds. … There’s a difference between a 15-year-old and a 5-year-old.” That’s not true. Children cannot make decisions that adults can. Neuroscience shows that children’s brains are not developed until their mid 20s. Children do not have the same decision-making capacity. That very vulnerability is what is preyed upon by perpetrators.

Why do we not use terms like “child prostitution” anymore, and why does language matter?

In the late 1990s and early aughts, at the beginning of the anti-human trafficking movement, people did use the term child prostitution. In fact, I used it in a white paper that I did, and I’m a survivor. But once we really adopted and embraced the terminology of force, fraud and coercion of human trafficking, that gave us a new frame to think of the power dynamics that are involved in the commercial sexual exploitation of children. This phrasing captures the true essence of what is happening within child sex trafficking.

This is not a child somehow deciding that they’re going to go out and trade sex for money, heat, food, anything of value. This is a case of perpetrators, whether they are family members or nonfamily traffickers, who are preying on the vulnerability of children who have often been sexually abused prior to their commercial sexual exploitation. This prior abuse adds another layer of vulnerability.

A billboard advertises for help for survivors of sex trafficking.
A billboard in Vadnais Heights, Minn., in 2023 calls for help for survivors of sex trafficking.
Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

How do Epstein’s actions fit into the paradigm of trafficking – is he a classic case or an unusual one?

Jeffrey Epstein is not unique. This is absolutely a classic case, for four primary reasons. Child sex trafficking perpetrators are primarily white men, with wealth and power. Epstein was, granted, among the uber rich and really powerful men. But power is relative to whatever context in which a child is being exploited. The most powerful person in a small town may not be a billionaire like Epstein, but they have disposable income and high socioeconomic status for the area, or they may hold a prominent position in government, church or a civic organization.

The Epstein case is also not unique in that victims are often dehumanized, by perpetrators and in the media. They are blamed, even though they are children who are developmentally incapable of making adult choices. There are transcripts of Maxwell calling the girls “trash.” These are seen as disposable children, not worthy of protections. And they have already been dehumanized within our culture prior to exploitation, whether it be through poverty, lack of educational or employment opportunities, or prior sexual violence. That makes them even more vulnerable to perpetrators such as Epstein and Maxwell, who are looking to prey upon those vulnerabilities.

Third, traffickers often insulate themselves from detection and trafficking charges by having others, such as women or girls, recruiting victims for them, which is exactly what Epstein did. Lastly, traffickers and buyers often plea down their trafficking charges. That results in low trafficking prosecution rates. They plea down from a charge like trafficking of a minor to assault, so this does not count toward trafficking prosecution rates. Epstein did exactly this in 2008 when he accepted prosecutor Alex Acosta’s nonprosecution agreement to plead guilty to two lesser Florida state-level prostitution charges rather than facing the multiple federal child sex trafficking charges for which Epstein was being investigated. This ability to use their wealth and power hides the truth of what is happening.

What systems allow sex trafficking to happen, and how can we change those systems?

Law enforcement often looks the other way. In the Epstein case, one of the victims had reached out to the FBI decades ago and nothing happened. It’s really been the persistence of the survivors, saying people really need to look at this.

Child sex trafficking is not a political issue. It’s one of the few bipartisan issues in our country that is so culturally divided. Yet Americans need to acknowledge that perpetrators comes from all political affiliations, they come from all races, socioeconomic status. As a culture, we really need to not blame victims and survivors. These are children who are being manipulated and violated. So recognizing the truth of power differences between perpetrators and victims is something that we as a culture very much need to do. By supporting victims, we can use our power – as relatives, jurors, constituents, elected officials – to hold traffickers and buyers to account. Victim-blaming creates a diversion that cements perpetrators’ ability to exploit and abuse children without fear of detection.

A woman in a red blazer points to a poster showing a man hugging a woman.
Audrey Strauss, acting U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, announces charges against Ghislaine Maxwell on July 2, 2020, for her alleged role in the sexual exploitation and abuse of multiple minor girls by Jeffrey Epstein.
AP Photo/John Minchillo, File

In terms of legislation, most states in the country still retain the right to criminalize sexually exploited minors, either through arrests or prosecution. These are laws that all states have considered since 2007, when New York was the first state to introduce a Safe Harbor law.

In Massachusetts, where I live, law enforcement retains the right to arrest or prosecute a minor for prostitution. That often doesn’t happen. But the reason law enforcement says it needs to have these laws is because it encourages children to get services. It’s a leverage point.

But oftentimes children do not trust law enforcement. And often for good reason. Some law enforcement are perpretrators. Other times, law enforcement tells sex-trafficked minors, “We’re doing this for your protection, we’re going to lock you up.” Both instances are deeply traumatizing and lead to mistrust of the police. That being said, so many extraordinary law enforcement agents are committed to supporting child sex trafficking victims and holding perpetrators to account.

Much of this retraumatization happens because local and state governments do not have the money for social services, trauma-informed, child sex trafficking-specific services, and housing opportunities for children to be able to heal. What we have is a robust criminal legal system. So, until we have a robust system that can support children who have been trafficked, sex trafficking is going to continue, in my experience.

Any last thoughts?

We need to acknowledge low prosecution rates of child sexual abuse cases, that 14% of all reported – just reported – child sexual abuse perpetrators are convicted or plead guilty. Similarly, in terms of adult rape charges, 1% of cases end in a conviction or guilty plea. So much of this lack of perpetrator accountability comes through this employment of plea deals and dehumanizing and retraumatizing victims during legal proceedings.

So we need to acknowledge when our criminal-legal system is not doing justice to victims whatsoever, and they’re allowing perpetrators to walk free. In the Epstein case, we’re focused on a few people, while hundreds of perpetrators continue to walk free. By employing these tactics, predators will continue to use the societal silence and misperceptions to their advantage. If it takes a village to raise a child, it also takes a village to sexually exploit a child.

The Conversation

Kate Price does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘Jeffrey Epstein is not unique’: What his case reveals about the realities of child sex trafficking – https://theconversation.com/jeffrey-epstein-is-not-unique-what-his-case-reveals-about-the-realities-of-child-sex-trafficking-270127

Farmers – long Trump backers – bear the costs of new tariffs, restricted immigration and slashed renewable energy subsidies

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Kee Hyun Park, Assistant Professor of International Political Economy, Nanyang Technological University; Institute for Humane Studies

U.S. farmers, including those who grow soybeans, are under pressure from various Trump administration policies. Jan Sonnenmair/Getty Images

Few political alliances in recent American history have seemed as solid as the one between Donald Trump and the country’s farmers. Through three elections, farmers stood by Trump even as tariffs, trade wars and labor shortages squeezed profits.

But Trump’s second term may be different.

A new round of administration policies now cuts deeper into farmers’ livelihoods – not just squeezing profits but reshaping how farms survive – through renewed tariffs on agricultural products, visa restrictions on farm workers, reduced farm subsidies and open favoritism toward South American agricultural competitors.

In the past, farmers’ loyalty to Trump has overridden economics. In our study of the 2018–19 trade war between the U.S. and China, we found that farmers in Trump-voting counties kept planting soybeans even though the trade war’s effects were clear: Their costs would rise and their profits would fall. Farmers in Democratic-leaning counties, by contrast, shifted acreage toward alternatives such as corn or wheat that were likely to be more profitable. For many pro-Trump farmers, political belief outweighed market logic – at least in the short term.

Today, the economic effects of policies affecting farmers are broader and deeper – and the resolve that carried farmers’ support for Trump through the first trade war may no longer be enough.

Tariffs: The familiar pain returns

The revived U.S.-China trade conflict has again placed soybeans at its center. In March 2025, Beijing suspended import licenses for several major U.S. soybean exporters following new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump countered with a new round of reciprocal tariffs, broadening the list of Chinese imports hit and raising rates on already targeted goods.

An October 2025 deal promised China would buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans a year, but relief has proved mostly symbolic.

Before the 2018-19 trade war, China regularly imported 30 million to 36 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually — more than one-third of all American soybean exports. Now, Beijing has signed long-term contracts with Brazil and Argentina, leaving U.S. producers with shrinking overseas demand for their crops.

Prices remain roughly 40% to 50% below pre-2018 levels, and farmers are storing record volumes of unsold soybeans.

In 2019, the federal government cushioned those losses with over $23 billion in bailout payments to farmers. This time, Republican leaders show little appetite for another bailout. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s funds for farm relief are running low, leaving farmers with lower prices and less support.

People walk among rows of plants.
Immigrants are a key labor force on U.S. farms.
Visions of America/Joe Sohm/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Labor: Fewer hands, higher costs

Farms are also short of workers. Roughly 42% of U.S. crop workers lack legal status, according to the National Agricultural Workers Survey. Tougher immigration enforcement and slower visa processing have thinned the labor pool just as production costs are surging. Hired-labor expenses rose 14.4% from 2021 to 2022 and another 15.2% the following year, and costs such as fertilizer, equipment and parts climbed sharply.

Many growers are turning to the H-2A guest worker program – a legal pipeline for seasonal foreign labor that has quadrupled in size over the past decade. But it is expensive: Farms must pay the adverse effect wage rate, a federally set pay rate that is more than twice the regular federal minimum wage. And farms must provide every H-2A worker with free housing and free transportation to and from the U.S., as well as from their housing to the worksite. Large agribusinesses can absorb those costs; small family farms often cannot.

As exports collapsed in late September 2025, the head of the American Soybean Association wrote a public letter to the White House begging for help, saying, “We’ve had your back. We need you to have ours now.” The hard-line immigration policy approach that rallies rural voters is also pushing smaller farms to the brink – forcing them to ask what their loyalty still buys.

Two men in suits stand next to each other.
U.S. President Donald Trump met Argentinian President Javier Milei at the White House in October 2025.
AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Subsidies and symbolism: The Argentina shock

The question of the value of farmers’ loyalty sharpened in the fall of 2025 when the U.S. Treasury approved a $20 billion currency-swap deal with Argentina – supporting the country’s president, Javier Milei, a political ally of Trump, while the country remains a direct agricultural competitor.

U.S. farmers, already frustrated by low prices and visa delays, took it as an insult. Argentina is among the world’s largest soybean exporters, and U.S. farm groups asked why the federal government would underwrite a competitor while trimming support for American producers at home.

The tension deepened when Trump floated the idea of buying Argentinian beef for U.S. markets – a remark one Kansas rancher called “an absolute betrayal.” The plan may be economically minor, but symbolically it pierced the “America First” narrative that had helped hold the farm vote together.

A farmer looks at the camera with cows around him and a large red bar with solar panels on the roof behind him. The photos was taken at the Milkhouse Dairy in Monmouth, Maine, on Oct. 3, 2019.
Solar panels can help cut energy costs for farm operations, such as dairies.
Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

Clean energy: The new rural subsidy under threat

For decades, the farm vote relied on federally funded support programs – crop insurance, price guarantees and disaster assistance – which account for a significant share of net farm income. Over the past five years, a quieter lifeline has emerged: renewable energy.

Wind and solar projects have brought jobs, tax revenue and steady lease payments to rural counties that have been losing both population and farm income for decades. Iowa now gets about 63% of its electricity from wind, while Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas have seen significant growth.

That momentum has stalled. In August 2025, a U.S. Treasury Department policy change froze billions in rural investment in renewable energy projects. Industry trackers report that prolonged uncertainty has pushed many Midwestern renewable projects into limbo.

For farmers, this isn’t an abstract climate debate — it’s a lost income stream. Leasing land for turbines or solar panels brought in tens of thousands of dollars a year and kept many family farms afloat.

The freeze wipes out one of the few growth engines in rural America and highlights an irony at the heart of Trump’s message: The administration that promises to protect the heartland is dismantling the clean energy investments that were finally helping it diversify.

Two men in suits sit at a table in front of a giant American flag and a sign saying 'Protect our food from China.'
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised support to U.S. farmers, alongside future EPA head Lee Zeldin.
Win McNamee/Getty Images

Politics: How deep does loyalty run?

As our research found, during the first trade war, Trump-voting counties absorbed heavy financial losses without changing course. That loyalty was propped up by subsidies – and by hope. This time, neither cushion is secure.

Many farmers still share Trump’s skepticism of Washington and global elites. But shrinking federal backing, tighter labor and a competitor’s bailout cut close to home. The question now is whether cultural identity can keep outweighing material loss – or whether the second trade war will signal a deeper political shift.

No sudden collapse of rural support for Trump is likely; cultural loyalty doesn’t fade overnight. But strain is visible. Farm groups are quietly pressing for pragmatic trade policy and visa reform, and several Republican governors now lobby for labor flexibility rather than tougher enforcement.

If the first Trump trade war tested farmers’ wallets, this one tests their faith – and faith, once shaken, is far harder to restore.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Farmers – long Trump backers – bear the costs of new tariffs, restricted immigration and slashed renewable energy subsidies – https://theconversation.com/farmers-long-trump-backers-bear-the-costs-of-new-tariffs-restricted-immigration-and-slashed-renewable-energy-subsidies-269221

Agricultural exports from Africa are not doing well. Four ways to change that

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Lilac Nachum, Visiting professor, Strathmore University

Africa is the world’s most endowed continent in agricultural potential, yet it remains a marginal player in global agribusiness. This paradox lies at the heart of Africa’s development challenge.

Africa’s land accounts for nearly half of the global total. Most of it can be used for growing crops. It is also largely unprotected, and not forested, with low population density. The continent’s climate supports the growth of 80% of the foods consumed globally. Economic theory would predict that these conditions would lead to strong export performance. Yet Africa’s share of global agricultural exports is the lowest worldwide. It fell from about 8% in 1960 to 4% in the early 2020s, according to World Bank data.

Policymakers have largely neglected agribusiness export performance, with a few exceptions, such as Kenya and Ghana. Agribusiness refers to the entire range of activities in producing, processing, distributing and marketing agricultural products.

Despite being the largest contributor to GDP and employment, agribusiness receives a disproportionately small share of government spending (on average 4%), far below its economic significance. There are variations across the continent, ranging from 8% and 7% respectively in Mali and South Sudan to less than 3% in Kenya and Ghana. Many governments have instead chosen manufacturing as the pathway to global integration.

Based on insights from over three decades of research, consulting and teaching on global markets and development, I argue that agriculture could lead Africa’s integration into the world economy. Four reforms would be necessary: improving access to capital; documenting land; designing targeted cross-border policies; and strategically employing trade policy.

In these ways, Africa could use its natural assets to secure broad-based economic growth and a stronger position in global value chains.

Four reforms to support agribusiness

1. Improve access to capital

Capital scarcity remains the most serious constraint on African agribusiness. Financial institutions are reluctant to lend due to high risk, long investment horizons, poor collateral, and profits being vulnerable to price shocks. The World Bank estimates that agriculture receives only about 1% of commercial lending despite contributing 25%-40% of GDP (up to 6% in Nigeria and Ethiopia). Lending rates are often double the economy-wide average, as UN Food and Agriculture Organization data show for Uganda.

Governments can help close this financing gap. In 2024, Kenya allocated US$7.7 million for developing its tea production. Domestic investment can generate savings by cutting food import bills. Nigeria’s Tomato Jos project, for instance, reduced annual tomato paste imports by US$360 million.

Governments should expand public lending while also enabling private sector participation through risk-sharing mechanisms. South Africa’s Khula Credit Guarantee Scheme illustrates how government-backed guarantees can unlock finance for collateral-poor farmers. This model has been reproduced in Kenya and Tanzania with EU and development bank support.

Private finance sources such as venture capital have also grown rapidly. In 2024, Nigeria and South Africa each attracted about US$500 million in venture funding. Funded African startups have grown six times faster than the global average. Micro-lending platforms now exceed US$8.5 billion in loans.

2. Document the land

Over 80% of Africa’s arable land is undocumented and governed by customary tenure systems poorly integrated into formal law. Weak land administration deters investment and limits land’s use as collateral. Transfers cost twice as much and take twice as long as in OECD countries (the world’s 38 most developed countries). That constrains access to credit and economies of scale needed for exports.

Several land tenure reforms introduced in the last decade demonstrate the benefits of formalisation. Ethiopia issued certificates to 20 million smallholders, boosting rental activity. Malawi’s redistribution of 15,000 hectares raised household incomes by 40%. In Mozambique, Uganda and Liberia, governments legally recognised customary institutions to facilitate formal land contracts. Rwanda’s comprehensive land mapping further improved transparency and investment incentives.

3. Design focused cross-border policies

Regional and global markets need different strategies for export success. Intra-African trade benefits from proximity and regulatory harmonisation. The East African Community’s trade facilitation measures increased intra-regional dairy exports 65-fold within a decade.

Most African agricultural exports, however, go to non-African markets, requiring infrastructure and logistics investments to ensure speed and quality. Senegal increased exports by 20% annually after investing in high-speed shipping, while Ethiopia’s flower growing boom owes much to its air transport and cold-chain systems.

Policies must also be crop specific. Kenya’s targeted avocado export strategy transformed it into Africa’s largest exporter, with double-digit annual growth. Mali’s mango export policy built a competitive value chain serving European markets.

4. Use trade policy as a tool for upgrading

African exporters primarily sell raw, low-value materials. Nigeria, a top tomato producer, exports nearly all production unprocessed – and imports paste. Less than 5% of Kenyan tea, the nation’s leading export, is branded. Trade policy can reverse this imbalance by encouraging domestic processing.

The East African Community’s differentiated tariff structure successfully encouraged value addition by lowering duties on intermediate goods while protecting local food processing. Governments could similarly tax or restrict unprocessed exports to motivate upgrading. At the same time, it’s necessary to invest in processing capacity. Several countries, including Botswana, Uganda and Côte d’Ivoire, have attempted raw export bans with limited success because the enabling conditions are missing.

A decisive shift

Africa’s agribusiness sector embodies the continent’s untapped potential for structural transformation. With abundant land, favourable climate and rapidly growing domestic demand, Africa possesses clear comparative advantages. Africa is also becoming more capable of addressing the challenges that have arrested the development of the agribusiness sector in the past. This article develops a policy agenda designed to reverse Africa’s declining share of world agricultural trade by amending institutional failures that have constrained competitiveness.

This agenda is based on enhancing access to finance, formalising land rights, implementing targeted cross-border initiatives, and using trade policy for upgrading. A decisive policy shift towards an agriculture-led development agenda is essential. Implementing this agenda will enable African countries to improve their economic position at home and in the world.

The Conversation

Lilac Nachum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Agricultural exports from Africa are not doing well. Four ways to change that – https://theconversation.com/agricultural-exports-from-africa-are-not-doing-well-four-ways-to-change-that-268780

The Dayton Peace Accords at 30: An ugly peace that has prevented a return to war over Bosnia

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Gerard Toal, Professor of Government and International Affairs, Virginia Tech

World leaders clap as, from left, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, Croat President Franjo Tudjman and Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic sign the Dayton Peace Agreement. Peter Turnley/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images

On Nov. 21, 1995, in the conference room of the Hope Hotel on the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio, the leaders of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia initialed an agreement that brought the three-and-a-half-year war in Bosnia to an end. Three weeks later, the General Framework Agreement, known as the Dayton Peace Accords, was signed.

The war over Bosnia was the most brutal and devastating of the wars spawned by the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Attacked from the moment it moved toward independence in early 1992 by militias supported by the neighboring nations of Croatia and Serbia, Bosnia was born under fire and nearly perished. Half of its population of 4.4 million were forcefully displaced, and over 100,000 people died during the conflict.

Ethnic cleansing and war crimes marked the war, including the Srebrenica genocide of July 1995, in which more than 8,000 Bosniak victims were murdered by the army of Republika Srpska.

The peace agreed to at Dayton left Bosnia, or Bosnia and Herzegovina as it is known in full, intact as a country but divided into two entities, Republika Srpska – a secessionist entity proclaimed by ethnonationalist Serbs in January 1992 – and the Bosnian Federation. Meanwhile, an international military force was deployed to secure the peace.

But it was an ugly peace: The patient was saved, but left deformed and weak. As scholars who have written extensively about the Bosnian war and its aftermath, we believe the legacy of the Dayton Peace Accords, 30 years on, is decidedly mixed.

The sorting of ethno-territories

Bosnia’s life after Dayton can be divided into three roughly decade-long eras: reconstruction, stalemate and permanent crisis.

The first decade was the toughest but most hopeful. With peace enforced by an international force including U.S. and Russian troops, Bosnians returned to their war-shattered country.

But restoring the country’s social fabric proved hard. While the international community aspired to reverse ethnic cleansing, the obstacles were immense.

A once proudly multicultural country was left divided into separate ethno-territories.

Under the Dayton Accords, Bosnians were promised the right to return home. But this was complicated by the fact that many houses were destroyed, while others were occupied by those who had forcefully displaced them.

Two people walk down a street in front of a damaged building.
Bosnians returning home after the war were confronted by damaged and destroyed homes.
Mike Abrahams/In Pictures Ltd./Corbis via Getty Images

By the summer of 2004, the UNHCR, the United Nations agency coordinating returns after the peace agreement, announced that it had achieved 1 million returns. What became evident, however, is that “minority returns” – that is, people returning to places where they would be a minority community – were limited. Many returnees reacquired their old property after a struggle but promptly sold it to build a life elsewhere among people who were the same ethnicity as them.

Cross-ethnic trust was largely shattered by wartime experiences.

Incompatible horizons

The first decade was peak liberal international statebuilding. An international high representative charged with “civilian implementation” of the Dayton Accords centralized control over military and intelligence functions at the state level. A central state border service and investigations agency was created. So also was a central state court, state-level criminal codes and an indirect taxation authority to unify indirect tax collection and finance state institutions.

Bosnia’s trajectory, though, stalled in 2006 when the high representative stepped back from state building. In April 2006, a package of constitutional amendments designed to streamline Dayton by strengthening central state institutions fell two votes short in the state Parliament.

Surprisingly, the package was not blocked by parties from Republika Srpska, traditional obstructionists, but by former Prime Minister Haris Silajdžić’s Bosniak-dominated party. This failure set the stage for a decade of polarization and stalemate.

Silajdžić campaigned for abolition of the entities – Republika Srpska and the Bosnian Federation – and the creation of a single united Bosnia. Republika Srpska’s leading politician, Milorad Dodik, answered by floating the prohibited idea of an entity independence referendum.

With the high representative largely passive, Bosnia was stalemated between incompatible horizons, each side strong enough to block but too weak to prevail.

Dodik turned referendum talk in Republika Srpska into a steady repertoire of threat, while casting central state institutions in Sarajevo as rotten, artificial and destined to fail. In the process, Dodik and his family got rich, creating a classic patronal power network across Republika Srpska.

With the media thoroughly divided by wartime allegiances, the public sphere was filled with incendiary rhetoric.

The word “inat” is a shared idiom across Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs. It is stubborn uprightness, a combination of narcissism and spite. Politics increasingly rewarded those who could perform “inat” more vividly than their rivals.

Central state institutions in Bosnia did not collapse but became sclerotic. Procedures multiplied, confidence thinned and decision-making settled into a theater of anticipatory vetoes where the point was less to implement a program than to keep imagined endpoints – the creation of a unified nation on one side; an independent Republika Srpska on the other – alive and to make the other side feel the pain of their impossibility.

A country on the brink

A decade of stalemate slowly evolved into a condition of permanent crisis.

In November 2015, Bosnia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the marking of Jan. 9 as “Republika Srpska Day” – a celebration of virtual independence – was discriminatory and illegal under human rights law.

Dodik, the Republika Srpska’s de facto leader, responded by organizing an extralegal referendum whose result asserted that the Republika Srpska population wanted the date retained.

Defiance evolved into active subversion of the constitutional order and provisions of Dayton. The Republika Srpska parliament passed laws that directly challenged central state institutions built in the first postwar decade. With weak enforcement capacity, the Bosnian state was unable to command compliance.

When in 2021 a new high representative was appointed over Russian objections, Dodik rejected his authority outright. By then, Bosnia was routinely described as “on the brink” of war.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw Dodik side firmly with Moscow. He visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow frequently. The Republika Srpska media relayed Russian propaganda, featuring correspondents reporting live from Russia’s front lines.

Two men talk while seated at a table.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with the president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, on Feb. 21, 2024.
Sergei Bobylyov/AFP via Getty Images

Meanwhile, people and institutions in the Bosnian Federation aligned with Ukraine and the West. A giant geopolitical rift ran through the country: two entities, two different realities.

In February 2025, the drama peaked when Bosnia’s Constitutional Court barred Dodik from political life. Predictably, he rejected the top court’s authority, and a standoff ensured. Dodik hired figures close to the Trump administration such as Rudy Giuliani to lobby on his behalf. By the end of October 2025, they had succeeded in getting U.S. sanctions on Dodik removed in exchange for him agreeing to leave the Republika Srpska presidency.

The ugly peace endures

To distant observers, Bosnia may register as a success story because it has not returned to war. But the peace forged at Dayton bound Bosnia in a straitjacket that has kept it divided since.

Ethnonationalism and crony capitalism have thrived while many Bosnians have left or aspire to do so.

Yet, unloved as it may be today, the Dayton Accords preserved Bosnia. It stopped a war, enabled freedom of movement, permitted economic revival, regularized elections, revived cultural life and allowed more than 1 million people to exercise their right of return.

As peace agreements go, the Dayton Peace Accords wasn’t the worst – but it is far from the best.

The Conversation

Gerard Toal received funding from the US National Science Foundation in the past for research on Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Adis Maksić does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The Dayton Peace Accords at 30: An ugly peace that has prevented a return to war over Bosnia – https://theconversation.com/the-dayton-peace-accords-at-30-an-ugly-peace-that-has-prevented-a-return-to-war-over-bosnia-268424

Behind every COP is a global data project that predicts Earth’s future. Here’s how it works

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Andy Hogg, Professor and Director of ACCESS-NRI, Australian National University

Arash Hedieh/Unspalsh

Over the past week we’ve witnessed the many political discussions that go with the territory of a COP – or, more verbosely, the “Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”.

COP30 is the latest event in annual meetings aiming to reach global agreement on how to address climate change. But political events such as COP base the need for action on available science – to understand recent changes and to predict the magnitude and impact of future change.

This information is provided through other international activities – such as regular assessment reports that are written by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These reports are based on the best available scientific knowledge.

But how exactly do they evaluate what will happen in the future?

Climate futures

Predictions of future climate change are based on several key planks of evidence. These include the fundamental physics of radiation in our atmosphere, the trends in observed climate and longer-term records of ancient climates.

But there is only one way to incorporate the complex feedbacks and dynamics required to make quantitative predictions. And that is by using climate models. Climate models use supercomputers to solve the complex equations needed to make climate projections.

The most sophisticated climate models are known as Earth system models. They ingest our knowledge of climate physics, radiation, chemistry, biology and fluid dynamics to simulate the evolution of the entire Earth system.

Climate centres from many different nations develop Earth system models, and contribute to a global data project known as CMIP – the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This data is then used by scientists worldwide to better understand the possible trajectories of, and to study the reasons for, future change.

Regional climate changes

Data from Earth system models cover the whole globe, but there is a catch. The computational expense of these models means that we run them at low resolution – that is, aggregating information onto grid boxes that are about 100 kilometres across. This puts the entirety of Melbourne, for example, within a single grid box.

But the climate information that we need to guide future adaptation needs more detailed information. For this, scientists use tools known as “downscaling”, or regional climate projections. These take the global projections and produce higher resolution information over a limited region.

This high-resolution information feeds into products such as the recently released National Climate Risk Assessment from the Australian Climate Service. Similar climate information is used by local governments, businesses and industry to understand their exposure to climate risk.

We’re doing it all again

Each iteration of CMIP, which began in 1995, has brought about improvements which have helped us to better understand our global climate.

For example, CMIP5 (from the late 2000s) helped us to understand carbon feedbacks and the predictability of the climate system. The CMIP6 generation of climate models (from the late 2010s) provided more accurate simulation of clouds and aerosols, and a wider set of possible future scenarios.

Now we are doing it all again – to create what will be known as CMIP7. Why would we do this?

The first reason is that more climate information has become available since CMIP6. CMIP simulations use “scenarios” to look at the range of plausible futures of climate change under different socio-economic and policy pathways.

For CMIP6, the “future” scenarios were started from the year 2015, using the information available at the time. We now have an extra decade of information to refine our projections.

The second reason is that CMIP7 shifts more to emissions-driven simulations for carbon dioxide, allowing models to calculate atmospheric concentrations on the fly.

Simulating how atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases interact with the land and ocean (known as the carbon cycle) allows feedbacks and potential tipping points to be calculated. However, this also requires a more complex Earth system model.

Australia’s CMIP7 contribution aims to incorporate new science and knowledge with a refined carbon cycle which includes Australian vegetation, bushfires, land use change and improved ocean biology.

Thirdly, this time around we aim to run models at higher resolution – such as having 16 grid boxes over Melbourne, instead of one. This is possible thanks to advances in computational capability and modelling software.

We’ve started the process

This week, Australia’s newest Earth system model version – known as ACCESS-ESM1.6 – is initiating the first phase in the CMIP7 contribution process, which is supported through the National Environmental Science Program Climate Systems Hub.

This includes a long “preindustrial spinup”, where we run the model for about 1,000 virtual years using greenhouse gas levels from before the industrial revolution until the stable conditions are reached and available observations are matched. The spinup is required to ensure that all subsequent simulations start from a physically consistent state.

In the next phase we’ll run a “historical” simulation that emulates the last 200 years of civilisation. Only then can we implement a range of future scenarios and complete our climate projections.

This work is a partnership between CSIRO and Australia’s climate simulator (ACCESS-NRI), with support from university-based scientists and the Bureau of Meteorology. It’s an exercise that will take multiple years, consume hundreds of millions of compute hours on high performance supercomputers of the National Computational Infrastructure, and will produce about 8 petabytes of data – or 8 million gigabytes – to be processed and submitted to CMIP7.

As the only Southern Hemisphere nation submitting to past CMIPs, Australia has a unique and crucial perspective.

This data will also be used for higher resolution regional climate projections, which will then be used for future climate risk assessments and adaptation plans. It will also inform IPCC’s next assessment report.

Ultimately, a future COP will translate this evidence into global action to further refine our climate targets.


The authors acknowledge the work of Christine Chung and Sugata Narsey from the Bureau of Meteorology in preparing this article

The Conversation

Andy Hogg works for Australia’s Climate Simulator (ACCESS-NRI), based at the Australian National University. He receives funding for ACCESS-NRI from the Department of Education through the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy, and receives research funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society.

Tilo Ziehn receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program.

ref. Behind every COP is a global data project that predicts Earth’s future. Here’s how it works – https://theconversation.com/behind-every-cop-is-a-global-data-project-that-predicts-earths-future-heres-how-it-works-269893

50 years after Franco’s death, giving a voice to Spanish dictator’s imprisoned mothers

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Zaya Rustamova, Associate Professor of Spanish, Kennesaw State University

A protester holds a banner with pictures of people who went missing during the Spanish dictatorship of Francisco Franco. John Milner/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

In the run-up to the 50th anniversary of Francisco Franco’s death on Nov. 20, 2025, the left-leaning Spanish government led a vigil honoring the many victims of the dictator’s regime.

While the exact numbers remain impossible to determine, historians estimate that Franco’s men killed up to 100,000 people during the brutal Spanish Civil War, and tens of thousands were executed during his dictatorial rule from 1939 until his death in 1975. Hundreds of thousands more were imprisoned, sent to labor camps or subjected to political persecution. To these figures, we must add the roughly half a million people who fled or were forced into exile.

Among the multitudes of Francoism’s victims were women and children who endured psychological and physical abuse in prisons, orphanages and asylums. Yet for decades their experiences have remained marginal in the public narrative – highlighting the uneven acknowledgment of different groups of victims amid Spain’s broader struggle to confront its past.

Still, their stories remain alive in the testimonies of the women who were imprisoned by the regime. In the summer of 2024, I conducted research at the Documentation Center of Historical Memory in Salamanca, collecting documented written accounts of traumatic experiences suffered by Spain’s female population under Franco. They reveal the extent to which Francoist repression was structured through gender, framing women as inherently subordinate and subjecting those who resisted the regime’s patriarchal order to especially severe punishment.

Franco’s gendered violence

My study explores the testimonies of women imprisoned during the civil war or subsequent decades, all of whom endured suffering related to their motherhood. While some were detained for their ideological allegiance to the republic that preceded Franco’s ascent, others had no formal partisan affiliations or were merely related to men who did.

These women suffered what many survivors and historians have described as a “double punishment” – targeted not only for their beliefs or associations but just for being women and mothers.

The earliest testimony I came across was from a woman detained in 1939, just three years after Franco, a military general, led an uprising against the democratically elected government of the Second Republic that precipitated the civil war and his subsequent reign.

A military men salutes toward a crowd.
Franco gives a fascist salute as he and his Nationalist forces enter Barcelona in March 1939.
AP Photo

Under Franco’s dictatorial regime, women’s roles were rigidly controlled by the ideology of National Catholicism, which linked femininity, motherhood and loyalty to the state. The church reinforced this vision, “dictating that women served the fatherland through self-sacrifice and dedication to the common good.”

Those who defied the patriarchy were criminalized and subjected to “re-education” focused on religious values.

Women’s so-called “redemption” under this reeducation was no less violent than their confinement. As one witness described, in May of 1939 the auditorium of Las Ventas prison was prepared to celebrate “two girls and a boy (… recently) born in prison.” During the ceremony, a choir “composed of forty inmates, including opera singers, music teachers, violinists, and amateurs,” had to perform the national anthems with the fascist arm-raised salute.

Yet confinement itself was particularly brutal.

According to Josefina García, a woman imprisoned during the 1940s, guards regularly insulted and beat inmates. “If you were at home behaving like decent women, you wouldn’t be here,” she recalled one saying. García continued: “Of course, they used a crude, sexist language. The police ‘used words’ in a way that sometimes leave a mark deeper than a bruise.”

Gender also played a role in the type of punishment prisoners received. Following their arrest, women were subjected to head shaving, forced ingestion of castor oil and the subsequent public humiliation of being made to walk in circles while defecating. In addition, they were often subjected to sexual violence by prison guards or interrogating officers.

Recounting her experience, another witness reported the case of an 18-year-old sister of a guerrilla fighter in Valencia who “was subjected to terrible torture, stripped naked in a room with several Civil Guards who pricked her breasts, genitals, and stomach with … needles.”

Someone holds a sign for a missing person at a protest.
A protester holds a banner with an image of an unknown woman – a victim of the Franco regime.
AP Photo/Paul White

Motherhood as battleground

One of the most painful aspects of Franco’s repression was the forced separation of mothers and their children.

Upon incarceration, women frequently lost custody of their sons and daughters, who were placed in orphanages or adopted by families loyal to Franco and his regime. Such violent ruptures of the maternal bond were more than an act of personal cruelty – they were a calculated political strategy rooted in the broader Francoist ideology.

Since Francoism promoted an image of women as obedient wives and self-sacrificing mothers devoted to the Catholic family model, Republican women were demonized as immoral, dangerous and unworthy of motherhood.

By stripping women of their children, the regime both punished them and reinforced its narrative that only “loyal” women could be true mothers.

Meanwhile, child-rearing or birth during incarceration was marked by fear and uncertainty. In certain cases, newborns were allowed to stay with their mothers for a short time. However, a lack of proper nourishment and mental exhaustion made breastfeeding an impossible task.

At times, women who began to lactate were denied the possibility of nursing their infants, leading to physical pain and emotional torment.

More often, babies were permanently taken away altogether, deemed at risk of being “contaminated” by their mothers’ ideological values.

“When I was arrested, my son was five days old,” one victim, Carmen Caamaño, reported. “About a year later, they said I no longer needed to breastfeed him and took the child out of the prison. Some friends had to take him in because I had no family there.”

Women present flowers at a memorial.
Women pay tribute to victims of the Franco regime in front of a flag of the Spanish Republic.
P Photo/Alvaro Barrientos

There were also countless cases in which children were imprisoned alongside their mothers. With no other relatives to care for them, these children suffered from hunger, disease and a lack of basic hygiene in their overcrowded cells. For mothers, the psychological burden was immense as they were forced to watch their children suffer, yet they had no power to protect them.

In the summer of 1941, about six or seven children died daily in these prisons from starvation and diseases, according to accounts of survivors.

Trauma and resistance

Alongside trauma, there were also moments of resistance.

Mothers in prison looked for ways to nurture their children despite scarcity and fear. Testimonies I reviewed relate cases of inmates sharing food, telling stories and protecting children as best they could. These small acts of care were a quiet but powerful form of defiance.

Yet for many women, the trauma of these losses never healed. Survivors often speak of the pain of separation as an open wound that lasted a lifetime. Children raised in prisons or separated from their families carried the scars into adulthood.

Even decades after the regime ended, many descendants still struggle with the weight of this silenced past. Yet because of Spain’s Amnesty Act of 1977, which was granted for past political crimes, those responsible for atrocities committed under Franco have seldom been held accountable.

Histories of the Franco years often leave the grief of the intergenerational trauma in the shadows. And for the victims themselves, the traumatic motherhood experiences under his dictatorship reveal more than just personal suffering – they expose how authoritarian power can reach into the most intimate parts of life.

The Conversation

Zaya Rustamova received funding to conduct this study from Radow J. Norman College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Kennesaw State Unviversity.

ref. 50 years after Franco’s death, giving a voice to Spanish dictator’s imprisoned mothers – https://theconversation.com/50-years-after-francos-death-giving-a-voice-to-spanish-dictators-imprisoned-mothers-249931