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July 27, 2025

Young Nigerians learn about democracy at school: how it’s shaping future voters

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Leila Demarest, Associate Professor, Institute of Political Science, Leiden University

Democratic consolidation is a continuing struggle, in Africa as elsewhere. The turn to democracy gained momentum in Africa in the late 1980s and early 1990s but has petered out since. Can new generations turn the tide?

The need to prepare young people to become democratically minded is well established. In western societies, school-based civic education has been considered the means to do it since as early as the 1960s. The assumption is that better knowledge about the democratic functioning of the state promotes stronger democratic values and norms. It is also thought to increase trust in institutions and a willingness to participate in politics in the future.

Research in western settings indeed shows that classroom instruction strengthens political attitudes and behaviour. Yet can we expect civic education to work in the same way in newer democracies? In weak democracies studies have found that civic education could actually lead young people away from political participation. Young people may become more aware of the flaws of their own system and turn away from politics.

Nigeria made the move from military rule to multiparty democracy in 1999 but remains a flawed democracy struggling with political corruption, vote buying and episodic violence. Individual liberties are only weakly protected.

As Africa’s most populous democracy, with a big young population, Nigeria needs young people to participate in democratic politics. And they have done so, as can be seen from events like the #EndSARS protests. Nevertheless many youths also show voter apathy. Or they engage in the country’s well-known cycles of election violence.

As scholars, we have conducted extensive research on how young people in African countries can overcome some dark legacies, like violent conflict, ethnic tensions and authoritarianism. In a recent study, we focused on democratic engagement among young Nigerians and how formal education could strengthen it.

Our research among secondary school students in Lagos state shows promising results. A survey of over 3,000 final year students found that those with greater political knowledge and stronger democratic values were more likely to express intent to vote, contact officials, or protest in the future.

However, these same students rejected party membership and campaigning, which are commonly associated with corruption and violence in Nigeria. In contrast, students with lower levels of knowledge and democratic values remained inclined to participate in party activities. This might be to gain economic benefits.

These findings show that the core objectives of civic education are not likely to lead youth to abandon democratic politics. Fostering knowledge about how the system (ideally) works and strengthening democratic attitudes remains a valuable approach to achieving democracy.

Our findings

Ten years after the transition from military to democratic rule, the Nigerian government made civic education mandatory in primary and secondary schools. The curriculum covers issues such as Nigeria’s independence, the structures of the state, civic rights, political parties and national unity. It also covers corruption and clientelism (the exchange of political support for economic benefits).

After learning how the government works and gaining awareness of civic rights and responsibilities, would young Nigerians remain committed to political participation with all the country’s democratic flaws?

We conducted a survey among final year secondary school students in Lagos state in 2019. About 3,000 students across 36 randomly selected schools answered our questions. The results revealed three political participation profiles:

disengaged youth – those who do not wish to take part in any type of political activity
non-party activists – intent on voting, contacting politicians or officials and protesting, but they reject party membership and campaigning
party activists – interested in joining a political party and campaigning as well as voting, contacting politicians or officials and protesting.

Disengaged youths tended to come from richer socio-economic backgrounds. They showed low trust in institutions. Non-party activists were more informed and held stronger democratic values than party activists. This is likely because they saw political parties as corrupt or violent.

In a democracy where party politics are often tainted by corruption, the youths’ selective engagement may be a sign not of apathy but of a thoughtful and principled rejection of flawed party politics.

Despite a growing distrust in political parties, civic education does not appear to discourage pro-democratic political behaviour overall.

A ‘reverse’ participation gap

Schools are not the only shapers of youths’ political behaviour. Caregivers and peers play a role. In a large number of countries, youth from richer socio-economic backgrounds are more politically informed, more trusting of institutions, and active. This results in a so-called participation gap between richer and poorer citizens.

Where democracy is yet to take root, research shows that middle- and higher-middle class citizens also have higher levels of knowledge and stronger democratic norms. But they have lower levels of institutional trust and are less likely to participate in institutional politics. This presents a “reverse” participation gap, so to speak.

In our research, we found partial evidence of this “reverse participation gap”. Students from wealthier backgrounds were less likely to participate, but not necessarily because they had stronger democratic norms. One possible explanation is that these students were less economically dependent on the state. With no need to rely on public institutions for jobs or welfare, they might feel less of a need to engage with them.

Retreat from political participation

In non-established democracies, research shows that more educated citizens often are more critical of their governments. In Ghana and Zimbabwe, these citizens were less likely to participate in elections.

Concerning civic education programmes specifically, an intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo showed that these programmes might increase political knowledge and commitment to democratic values, but also decrease satisfaction with democracy in their country.

School-based research from the continent is lacking. But studies examining school-based civic education in electoral democracies elsewhere also show a retreat from institutionalised political participation. This spans voting, party membership, campaigning, and contacting politicians.

Our study finds more optimistic results for civic education programmes in Africa. Youths with high knowledge and values – the core objectives of civic education – remain committed to democratic political behaviour.

Leila Demarest receives funding from Leiden University Fund (grant reference W19304-5-01).

Line Kuppens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Young Nigerians learn about democracy at school: how it’s shaping future voters – https://theconversation.com/young-nigerians-learn-about-democracy-at-school-how-its-shaping-future-voters-261030

July 27, 2025

Uganda’s land eviction crisis: do populist state measures actually fix problems?

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Rose Nakayi, Senior Lecturer of Law, Makerere University

Populism is rife in various African countries. This political ideology responds to and takes advantage of a situation where a large section of people feels exploited, marginalised or disempowered. It sets up “the people” against “the other”. It promises solidarity with the excluded by addressing their grievances. Populism targets broad social groups, operating across ethnicity and class.

But how does populism fare when it informs state interventions to address long-standing societal issues under capitalism? Do populist state measures – especially when launched by a politically powerful leader – deliver improvements for the stated beneficiaries?

As academics who have researched populism for years, we were interested in the implementation and outcomes of such policies and programmes. To answer these questions, we analysed a populist intervention by President Yoweri Museveni in Uganda to address rampant land conflicts. In 2013 he set out to halt land evictions.

What good came of this? Did it help the poor?

We analysed land laws, court cases, government statements and media reports and found that, for the most part, the intervention offered short-term relief. Some people returned to the land, but the underlying land conflict was unresolved.

This created problems that continue to be felt today, including land disputes and land tenure insecurity. The intervention also increased the involvement of the president and his agents personally in providing justice.

It didn’t make pro-poor structural changes to address the root of the problem.

Yet, the intervention had several political benefits:

it enhanced the political legitimacy of the president and state
it offered a politically useful response to a land-related crisis and conflict
it addressed broader criticisms over injustice and poverty by sections of the public and opposition leaders, some of whom (like Robert Kyagulanyi) also relied on populist rhetoric.

The promise to deal with land evictions “once and for all” has yet to be realised over a decade later. During Heroes Day celebrations on 9 June 2024, Museveni’s speech repeated his promise to stop evictions.

Such promises of getting a grip on and ending evictions via decisive state actions, including proposed new legal guidelines, were also made more recently, for example during Heroes Day 2025. This indicates that evictions – and state responses to them – remain a top issue on the political agenda ahead of Uganda’s 2026 election.

Persistent evictions

Evictions were rampant in the 2010s, especially in central Uganda’s Buganda region. They were driven by increased demand for land amid a growing population and legal reforms that seemed to protect tenants over landlords. Some landlords, desperate to free their land of tenants, were carrying out the evictions themselves.

The president condemned the evictions, but they continued. Soon, the number of evictees was in the thousands.

In response, Museveni set up a land committee within the presidency. He announced at a press conference in early 2013 that:

all evictions are halted. There will be no more evictions, especially in the rural areas. All evictions involving peasants are halted.

The dynamics of populism-in-practice

Museveni’s attempts to personally deal with evictions illustrate a continued power shift in Uganda, from institutions to the president’s executive units.

Despite its shortcomings, such as case backlogs, the judicial system offers an opportunity to present cases in a more neutral environment. It also allows parties to appeal decisions. This way, higher courts can correct errors where necessary.

The presidential land committee, we found, tended to be biased in favour of tenants, paying less attention to the landlords’ cases.

The president’s intervention wasn’t adequate to address the immediate causes and effects of the evictions, nor the root causes.

Those included land tenure insecurities. Due to legal reforms, land-rich landlords were unable to get rent at market value from tenants. Neither could they evict them lawfully where rent was in arrears.

In some cases, legal options such as land sales between landlords and tenants were applied. This was often to the detriment of tenants, especially where there was no neutral actor to oversee negotiations.

Land reforms need to be institutionalised and funded to deliver the intended outcomes. Otherwise, unlawful sales and evictions become a quick option for landlords.

Museveni’s populist initiative also unleashed new problems for beneficiaries. Some secured land occupancy in the interim but lived in fear of a relapse of conflict. Mistrust and scarred interpersonal relationships hampered cohesion in some communities. Disputes over land put political actors who would ideally be working together to restore calm at loggerheads.

Populism as power

The creation of populist presidential units has become routine in Uganda. More recently, Museveni created a unit to protect investors, which has resolved some investment-related land disputes. Another one was established to fight corruption. Both units remain very active.

Our research finds that the government needs these units and interventions for a number of reasons. It uses them to govern the country’s conflict-ridden economy and society. They allow the government to assemble a politically useful response to crises and to address some on-the-ground problems. They make the state look concerned and responsive to people’s needs. And they allow ruling party political actors to increase their popularity locally.

Museveni and his ruling party, the National Resistance Movement, therefore, benefit from a key aspect of populism. It allows the merging of disparate, competing and contradictory views, interests and demands of members of various societal classes and groups into a significantly simplified and uniform narrative that (potentially) speaks to all. This could mean: end corruption, end evictions, wealth for all, and so on.

A general election is due in early 2026. The steps Museveni has taken on evictions, and the units set up to fight corruption or protect investors, need to be seen with this political context in mind.

Museveni has put protecting people from evictions high on his government’s agenda. Speaking to party members in August 2024, he emphasised

the importance of adhering to the mass line, which prioritises the needs and rights of the masses over those of the elite.

In our view, this pre-election narrative signifies the continued political and social relevance of populism in today’s Uganda. This could result in heightened populist state activity in the run-up to and after the election.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Uganda’s land eviction crisis: do populist state measures actually fix problems? – https://theconversation.com/ugandas-land-eviction-crisis-do-populist-state-measures-actually-fix-problems-260512

July 27, 2025

Long-COVID, viruses and ‘zombie’ cells: new research looks for links to chronic fatigue and brain fog

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Burtram C. Fielding, Dean Faculty of Sciences and Professor in the Department of Microbiology, Stellenbosch University

Millions of people who recover from infections like COVID-19, influenza and glandular fever are affected by long-lasting symptoms. These include chronic fatigue, brain fog, exercise intolerance, dizziness, muscle or joint pain and gut problems. And many of these symptoms worsen after exercise, a phenomenon known as post-exertional malaise.

Medically the symptoms are known as myalgic encephalomyelitis or chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). The World Health Organization classifies this as a post viral fatigue syndrome, and it is recognised by both the WHO and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as a brain disorder.

Experiencing illness long after contracting an infection is not new, as patients have reported these symptoms for decades. But COVID-19 has amplified the problem worldwide. Nearly half of people with ongoing post-COVID symptoms – a condition known as long-COVID – now meet the criteria for ME/CFS. Since the start of the pandemic in 2020, it is estimated that more than 400 million people have developed long-COVID.

To date, no widely accepted and testable mechanism has fully explained the biological processes underlying long-COVID and ME/CFS. Our work offers a new perspective that may help close this gap.

Our research group studies blood and the cardiovascular system in inflammatory diseases, as well as post-viral conditions. We focus on coagulation, inflammation and endothelial cells. Endothelial cells make up the inner layer of blood vessels and serve many important functions, like regulating blood clotting, blood vessel dilation and constriction, and inflammation.

Our latest review aims to explain how ME/CFS and long-COVID start and progress, and how symptoms show up in the body and its systems. By pinpointing and explaining the underlying disease mechanisms, we can pave the way for better clinical tools to diagnose and treat people living with ME/CFS and long-COVID.

What is endothelial senescence?

In our review, our international team proposes that certain viruses drive endothelial cells into a half-alive, “zombie-like” state called cellular senescence. Senescent endothelial cells stop dividing, but continue to release molecules that awaken and confuse the immune system. This prompts the blood to form clots and, at the same time, prevent clot breakdown, which could lead to the constriction of blood vessels and limited blood flow.

By placing “zombie” blood-vessel cells at the centre of these post-viral diseases, our hypothesis weaves together microclots, oxygen debt (the extra oxygen your body needs after strenuous exercise to restore balance), brain-fog, dizziness, gut leakiness (a digestive condition where the intestinal lining allows toxins into the bloodstream) and immune dysfunction into a single, testable narrative.

From acute viral infection to ‘zombie’ vessels

Viruses like SARS-CoV-2, Epstein–Barr virus, HHV-6, influenza A, and enteroviruses (a group of viruses that cause a number of infectious illnesses which are usually mild) can all infect endothelial cells. They enable a direct attack on the cells that line the inside of blood vessels. Some of these viruses have been shown to trigger endothelial senescence.

Multiple studies show that SARS-CoV-2 (the virus which causes COVID-19 disease) has the ability to induce senescence in a variety of cell types, including endothelial cells. Viral proteins from SARS-CoV-2, for example, sabotage DNA-repair pathways and push the host cell towards a senescent state, while senescent cells in turn become even more susceptible to viral entry. This reciprocity helps explain why different pathogens can result in the same chronic illness. Influenza A, too, has shown the ability to drive endothelial cells into a senescent, zombie-like state.

What we think is happening

We propose that when blood-vessel cells turn into “zombies”, they pump out substances that make blood thicker and prone to forming tiny clots. These clots slow down circulation, so less oxygen reaches muscles and organs. This is one reason people feel drained.

During exercise, the problem worsens. Instead of the vessels relaxing to allow adequate bloodflow, they tighten further. This means that muscles are starved of oxygen and patients experience a crash the day after exercise. In the brain, the same faulty cells let blood flow drop and leak, bringing on brain fog and dizziness.

In the gut, they weaken the lining, allowing bits of bacteria to slip into the bloodstream and trigger more inflammation. Because blood vessels reach every corner of the body, even scattered patches of these “zombie” cells found in the blood vessels can create the mix of symptoms seen in long-COVID and ME/CFS.

Immune exhaustion locks in the damage

Some parts of the immune system kill senescent cells. They are natural-killer cells, macrophages and complement proteins, which are immune molecules capable of tagging and killing pathogens. But long-COVID and ME/CFS frequently have impaired natural-killer cell function, sluggish macrophages and complement dysfunction.

Senescent endothelial cells may also send out a chemical signal to repel immune attack. So the “zombie cells” actively evade the immune system. This creates a self-sustaining loop of vascular and immune dysfunction, where senescent endothelial cells persist.

In a healthy person with an optimally functioning immune system, these senescent endothelial cells will normally be cleared. But there is significant immune dysfunction in ME/CFS and long-COVID, and this may enable the “zombie cells” to survive and the disease to progress.

Where the research goes next

There is a registered clinical trial in the US that is investigating senescence in long-COVID. Our consortium is testing new ways to spot signs of ageing in the cells that line our blood vessels. First, we expose healthy endothelial cells in the lab to blood from patients to see whether it pushes the cells into a senescent, or “zombie,” state.

At the same time, we are trialling non‑invasive imaging and fluorescent probes that could one day reveal these ageing cells inside the body. In selected cases, tissue biopsies may later confirm what the scans show. Together, these approaches aim to pinpoint how substances circulating in the blood drive cellular ageing and how that, in turn, fuels disease.

Our aim is simple: find these ageing endothelial cells in real patients. Pinpointing them will inform the next round of clinical trials and open the door to therapies that target senescent cells directly, offering a route to healthier blood vessels and, ultimately, lighter disease loads.

Burtram C. Fielding works for Stellenbosch University. He has received funding from the National Research Foundation, South Africa and the Technology Innovation Agency.

Resia Pretorius is a Distinguished Research Professor at Stellenbosch University and receives funding from Balvi Research Foundation and Kanro Research Foundation. She is also affiliated with University of Liverpool as a Honorary Professor. Resia is a founding director of the Stellenbosch University start-up company, Biocode Technologies and has various patents related to microclot formation in Long COVID.

Massimo Nunes receives funding from Kanro Research Foundation.

– ref. Long-COVID, viruses and ‘zombie’ cells: new research looks for links to chronic fatigue and brain fog – https://theconversation.com/long-covid-viruses-and-zombie-cells-new-research-looks-for-links-to-chronic-fatigue-and-brain-fog-261108

July 26, 2025

Which wildfire smoke plumes are hazardous? New satellite tech can map them in 3D for air quality alerts at neighborhood scale

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Jun Wang, Professor of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, University of Iowa

Smoke from Canadian wildfires prompted air quality alerts in Chicago as it blanketed the city on June 5, 2025. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Canada is facing another dangerous wildfire season, with burning forests sending smoke plumes across the provinces and into the U.S. again. The pace of the 2025 fires is reminiscent of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season, which exposed millions of people in North America to hazardous smoke levels.

For most of the past decade, forecasters have been able to use satellites to track these smoke plumes, but the view was only two-dimensional: The satellites couldn’t determine how close the smoke was to Earth’s surface.

The altitude of the smoke matters.

If a plume is high in the atmosphere, it won’t affect the air people breathe – it simply floats by far overhead.

But when smoke plumes are close to the surface, people are breathing in wildfire chemicals and tiny particles. Those particles, known as PM2.5, can get deep into the lungs and exacerbate asthma and other respiratory and cardiac problems.

An animation shows mostly green (safe) air quality from ground-level monitors. However, in Canada, closer to the fire, the same plume shows high levels of PM2.5. — An animation on May 30, 2025, shows a thick smoke plume from Canada moving over Minnesota, but the air quality monitors on the ground detected minimal risk, suggesting it was a high-level smoke plume.
NOAA NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research

The Environmental Protection Agency uses a network of ground-based air quality monitors to issue air quality alerts, but the monitors are few and far between, meaning forecasts have been broad estimates in much of the country.

Now, a new satellite-based method that I and colleagues at universities and federal agencies have been working on for the past two years is able to give scientists and air quality managers a 3D picture of the smoke plumes, providing detailed data of the risks down to the neighborhood level for urban and rural areas alike.

Building a nationwide smoke monitoring system

The new method uses data from a satellite that NASA launched in 2023 called the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution, or TEMPO, satellite.

A map shows blue over the Dakotas, Nebraska and western parts of Minnesota and Iowa. Pink is over Pennsylvania up through Maine. — Data from the TEMPO satellite shows the height of the smoke plume, measured in kilometers. Light blue areas are closest to the ground, suggesting the worst air quality. Pink areas suggest the smoke is more than 2 miles (3.2 kilometers) above the ground, where it poses little risk to human health. The data aligns with air monitor readings taken on the ground at the same time.
NOAA NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research

TEMPO makes it possible to determine a smoke plume’s height by providing data on how much the oxygen molecules absorb sunlight at the 688 nanometer wavelength. Smoke plumes that are high in the atmosphere reflect more solar radiation at this wavelength back to space, while those lower in the atmosphere, where there is more oxygen to absorb the light, reflect less.

Understanding the physics allowed scientists to develop algorithms that use TEMPO’s data to infer the smoke plume’s altitude and map its 3D movement in nearly real time.

An illustration shows a satellite, Sun and smoke plume at different heights. Higher plumes reflect more light. — Aerosol particles in high smoke plumes reflect more light back into space. Closer to Earth’s surface, there is more oxygen to absorb light at the 688 nanometer wavelength, so less light is reflected. Satellites can detect the difference, and that can be used to determine the height of the smoke plume.
Adapted from Xu et al, 2019, CC BY

By combining TEMPO’s data with measurements of particles in the atmosphere, taken by the Advanced Baseline Imager on the NOAA’s GOES-R satellites, forecasters can better assess the health risk from smoke plumes in almost real time, provided clouds aren’t in the way.

That’s a big jump from relying on ground-based air quality monitors, which may be hundreds of miles apart. Iowa, for example, had about 50 air quality monitors reporting data on a recent day for a state that covers 56,273 square miles. Most of those monitors were clustered around its largest cities.

NOAA’s AerosolWatch tool currently provides a near-real-time stream of wildfire smoke images from its GOES-R satellites, and the agency plans to incorporate TEMPO’s height data. A prototype of this system from my team’s NASA-supported research project on fire and air quality, called FireAQ, shows how users can zoom in to the neighborhood level to see how high the smoke plume is, however the prototype is currently only updated once a day, so the data is delayed, and it isn’t able to provide smoke height data where clouds are also overhead.

Wildfire health risks are rising

Fire risk is increasing across North America as global temperatures rise and more people move into wildland areas.

While air quality in most of the U.S. improved between 2000 and 2020, thanks to stricter emissions regulations on vehicles and power plants, wildfires have reversed that trend in parts of the western U.S. Research has found that wildfire smoke has effectively erased nearly two decades of air quality progress there.

Our advances in smoke monitoring mark a new era in air quality forecasting, offering more accurate and timely information to better protect public health in the face of these escalating wildfire threats.

Prof. Wang’s group have been supported from NOAA, NASA, and Naval ONR to develop research algorithm to retrieve aerosol layer height. The compute codes of the research algorithm were shared with colleagues in NOAA.

– ref. Which wildfire smoke plumes are hazardous? New satellite tech can map them in 3D for air quality alerts at neighborhood scale – https://theconversation.com/which-wildfire-smoke-plumes-are-hazardous-new-satellite-tech-can-map-them-in-3d-for-air-quality-alerts-at-neighborhood-scale-259654

July 25, 2025

Neanderthals likely ate fermented meat with a side of maggots

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Melanie Beasley, Assistant Professor of Anthropology, Purdue University

Black soldier fly maggots can feed on decomposing animals. Melanie M. Beasley

Scientists long thought that Neanderthals were avid meat eaters. Based on chemical analysis of Neanderthal remains, it seemed like they’d been feasting on as much meat as apex predators such as lions and hyenas. But as a group, hominins – that’s Neanderthals, our species and other extinct close relatives – aren’t specialized flesh eaters. Rather, they’re more omnivorous, eating plenty of plant foods, too.

It is possible for humans to subsist on a very carnivorous diet. In fact, many traditional northern hunter–gatherers such as the Inuit subsisted mostly on animal foods. But hominins simply cannot tolerate consuming the high levels of protein that large predators can. If humans eat as much protein as hypercarnivores do over long periods without consuming enough other nutrients, it can lead to protein poisoning – a debilitating, even lethal condition historically known as “rabbit starvation.”

So, what could explain the chemical signatures found in Neanderthal bones that seem to suggest they were healthily eating tons of meat?

I am an anthropologist who uses elements such as nitrogen to study the diets of our very ancient ancestors. New research my colleagues and I conducted suggests a secret ingredient in the Neanderthal diet that might explain what was going on: maggots.

A close-up photograph of a black-colored fly with green and brown patterned eyes — A black soldier fly adult. The larvae of this fly are one of the species of maggots studied.
GordZam/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Isotope ratios reveal what an animal ate

The ratios of various elements in the bones of animals can provide insights into what they ate while alive. Isotopes are alternate forms of the same element that have slightly different masses. Nitrogen has two stable isotopes: nitrogen-14, the more abundant form, and nitrogen-15, the heavier, less common form. Scientists denote the ratio of nitrogen-15 to nitrogen-14 as δ¹⁵N and measure it in a unit called permil.

As you go higher up the food chain, organisms have relatively more of the isotope nitrogen-15. Grass, for example, has a very low δ¹⁵N value. An herbivore accumulates the nitrogen-15 that it consumes eating grass, so its own body has a slightly higher δ¹⁵N value. Meat-eating animals have the highest nitrogen ratio in a food web; the nitrogen-15 from their prey concentrates in their bodies.

By analyzing stable nitrogen isotope ratios, we can reconstruct the diets of Neanderthals and early Homo sapiens during the late Pleistocene, which ran from 11,700 to 129,000 years ago. Fossils from various sites tell the same story – these hominins have high δ¹⁵N values. High δ¹⁵N values would typically place them at the top of the food web, together with hypercarnivores such as cave lions and hyenas, whose diet is more than 70% meat.

But maybe something else about their diet was inflating Neanderthals’ δ¹⁵N values.

Uncovering the Neanderthal menu

We suspected that maggots could have been a different potential source of enriched nitrogen-15 in the Neanderthal diet. Maggots, which are fly larvae, can be a fat-rich source of food. They are unavoidable after you kill another animal, easily collectible in large numbers and nutritionally beneficial.

To investigate this possibility, we used a dataset that was originally created for a very different purpose: a forensic anthropology project focused on how nitrogen might help estimate time since death.

I had originally collected modern muscle tissue samples and associated maggots at the Forensic Anthropology Center at University of Tennessee, Knoxville, to understand how nitrogen values change during decomposition after death.

A photo of an animal carcass with maggots covering it — Maggots feeding on and decomposing an animal carcass.
Hari Sucahyo/iStock via Getty Images Plus

While the data can assist modern forensic death investigations, in our current study we repurposed it to test a very different hypothesis. We found that stable nitrogen isotope values increase modestly as muscle tissue decomposes, ranging from -0.6 permil to 7.7 permil.

This increase is more dramatic in maggots feeding on decomposing tissue: from 5.4 permil to 43.2 permil. To put the maggot values in perspective, scientists estimate δ¹⁵N values for Pleistocene herbivores to range between 0.9 permil to 11.2 permil. Maggots are measuring up to almost four times higher.

Our research suggests that the high δ¹⁵N values observed in Late Pleistocene hominins may be inflated by year-round consumption of ¹⁵N-enriched maggots found in dried, frozen or cached animal foods.

Cultural practices shape diet

In 2017, my collaborator John Speth proposed that the high δ¹⁵N values in Neanderthals were due to the consumption of putrid or rotting meat, based on historical and cultural evidence of diets in northern Arctic foragers.

Traditionally, Indigenous peoples almost universally viewed thoroughly putrefied, maggot-infested animal foods as highly desirable fare, not starvation rations. In fact, many such peoples routinely and often intentionally allowed animal foods to decompose to the point where they were crawling with maggots, in some cases even beginning to liquefy.

This rotting food would inevitably emit a stench so overpowering that early European explorers, fur trappers and missionaries were sickened by it. Yet Indigenous peoples viewed such foods as good to eat, even a delicacy. When asked how they could tolerate the nauseating stench, they simply responded, “We don’t eat the smell.”

A Neanderthal wearing animal fur butchering a goat with a stone tool — Reconstruction of a Neanderthal man butchering a goat at the Neanderthal Museum in Mettman, Germany.
Pressebilder Neanderthal Museum, Mettmann/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Neanderthals’ cultural practices, similar to those of Indigenous peoples, might be the answer to the mystery of their high δ¹⁵N values. Ancient hominins were butchering, storing, preserving, cooking and cultivating a variety of items. All these practices enriched their paleo menu with foods in forms that nonhominin carnivores do not consume. Research shows that δ¹⁵N values are higher for cooked foods, putrid muscle tissue from terrestrial and aquatic species, and, with our study, for fly larvae feeding on decaying tissue.

The high δ¹⁵N values of maggots associated with putrid animal foods help explain how Neanderthals could have included plenty of other nutritious foods beyond only meat while still registering δ¹⁵N values we’re used to seeing in hypercarnivores.

We suspect the high δ¹⁵N values seen in Neanderthals reflect routine consumption of fatty animal tissues and fermented stomach contents, much of it in a semi-putrid or putrid state, together with the inevitable bonus of both living and dead ¹⁵N-enriched maggots.

What still isn’t known

Fly larvae are a fat-rich, nutrient-dense, ubiquitous and easily procured insect resource, and both Neanderthals and early Homo sapiens, much like recent foragers, would have benefited from taking full advantage of them. But we cannot say that maggots alone explain why Neanderthals have such high δ¹⁵N values in their remains.

Several questions about this ancient diet remain unanswered. How many maggots would someone need to consume to account for an increase in δ¹⁵N values above the expected values due to meat eating alone? How do the nutritional benefits of consuming maggots change the longer a food item is stored? More experimental studies on changes in δ¹⁵N values of foods processed, stored and cooked following Indigenous traditional practices can help us better understand the dietary practices of our ancient relatives.

Melanie Beasley received funding from the Haslam Foundation for this research.

– ref. Neanderthals likely ate fermented meat with a side of maggots – https://theconversation.com/neanderthals-likely-ate-fermented-meat-with-a-side-of-maggots-261628

July 25, 2025

Using cosmetics on babies and children could disrupt hormones and trigger allergies

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Taylor, Professor of Anatomy, Lancaster University

Would you dab perfume on a six-month-old? Paint their tiny nails with polish that contains formaldehyde? Dust bronzer onto their cheeks?

An investigation by the Times has found that babies and toddlers are routinely exposed to adult cosmetic products, including fragranced sprays, nail polish and even black henna tattoos.

While these may sound harmless – or even Instagram-friendly – the science tells a more concerning story. Infant skin is biologically different from adult skin: it’s thinner, more absorbent and still developing. Exposure to certain products can lead to immediate problems like irritation or allergic reactions, and in some cases, may carry longer term health-risks such as hormone disruption.

This isn’t a new concern. A 2019 study found that every two hours in the US, a child was taken to hospital because of accidental exposure to cosmetic products.

Newborn skin has the same number of layers as adult skin but those layers are up to 30% thinner. That thinner barrier makes it easier for substances, including chemicals, to penetrate through to deeper tissues and the bloodstream.

Young skin also has a higher water content and produces less sebum (the natural oil that protects and moisturises the skin). This makes it more prone to water loss, dryness and irritation, particularly when exposed to fragrances or creams not formulated for infants.

The skin’s microbiome – its protective layer of beneficial microbes – also takes time to develop. By age three, a child’s skin finishes establishing its first microbiome. Before then, products applied to the skin can disrupt this delicate balance. At puberty, the skin’s structure and microbiome change again, altering how it responds to products.

The investigation found that bronzers and nail polish were being used on young children. These products often contain harmful or even carcinogenic chemicals, such as formaldehyde, toluene and dibutyl phthalate.

Toluene is a known neurotoxin, and dibutyl phthalate is an endocrine disruptor – a chemical that can interfere with hormone function, potentially affecting growth, development and fertility. Both substances can more easily pass through infants’ thinner, more permeable skin.

Even low-level exposure to formaldehyde, such as from furniture or air pollution, has been linked to higher rates of lower respiratory infections in children (that’s infections affecting the lungs, airways and windpipe).

Irritating ingredients

In the US, one in three adults experiences skin or respiratory symptoms after exposure to fragranced products. If adults are reacting, it’s no surprise that newborns and children with their developing immune systems are at even greater risk.

Perfumes often contain alcohol and volatile compounds that dry out the skin, leading to redness, itching and discomfort.

Certain skincare ingredients have also been studied for their potential to affect hormones, trigger allergies or pose long-term health concerns:

alkylphenols used in detergents and cosmetics may disrupt hormone activity
antimicrobials such as triclosan can interfere with thyroid hormones and contribute to antibiotic resistance
bisphenols, (BPA widely used in packaging are linked to hormone disruption.
cyclosiloxanes (D4 and D5) may accumulate in the body and affect hormonal balance
ethanolamines can react with other ingredients to form nitrosamines, some of which are potential carcinogens
parabens are preservatives that mimic oestrogen, though some studies suggest minimal risk at low doses
phthalates used in fragrances and plastics are linked to reproductive toxicity, especially in early-life exposures
benzophenone is found in many sunscreens and some forms may act as allergens and hormone disruptors.

While many of these ingredients are permitted in regulated concentrations, some researchers warn of a “cocktail effect”: the cumulative impact of daily exposure to multiple chemicals, especially in young, developing bodies.

Temporary tattoos

Temporary tattoos, particularly black henna, are popular on holidays but they aren’t always safe. Black henna is a common cause of contact dermatitis in children and may contain para-phenylenediamine (PPD), a chemical approved for use in hair dyes but not for direct application to skin.

PPD exposure can cause severe allergic reactions and, in rare cases, cancer. Children may develop hypopigmentation – pale patches where colour is lost – or, in adults, hyperpigmentation that can last for months or become permanent.

Worryingly, children exposed to PPD may experience more severe reactions later in life if they use hair dyes containing the same compound. This can sometimes lead to hospitalisation or even fatal anaphylaxis. Because of these risks, European legislation prohibits PPD from being applied directly to the skin, eyebrows, or eyelashes.

‘Natural’ doesn’t mean harmless

Products marketed as “natural” or “clean” can also cause allergic reactions. Propolis (bee glue), for instance, is found in many natural skincare products but causes contact dermatitis in up to 16% of children.

A study found an average of 4.5 contact allergens per product in “natural” skincare ranges. Out of 1,651 “natural” personal care products on the US market, only 96 (5.8%) were free from contact allergens. Even claims like “dermatologically tested” don’t guarantee safety; they simply mean the product was tested on skin, not that it’s free from allergens.

Babies and young children aren’t just miniature adults. Their skin is still developing and is more vulnerable to irritation, chemical absorption and systemic effects: substances that penetrate the skin can enter the bloodstream and potentially affect organs or biological systems throughout the body. Applying adult-targeted products, or even well-meaning “natural” alternatives, can therefore carry real risks.

Adverse reactions can appear as rashes, scaling or itchiness and, in severe cases, blistering or crusting. Respiratory symptoms like coughing or wheezing should always be investigated by a medical professional.

When in doubt, keep it simple. Limit what goes on your child’s skin, especially in the early years.

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Adam Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Using cosmetics on babies and children could disrupt hormones and trigger allergies – https://theconversation.com/using-cosmetics-on-babies-and-children-could-disrupt-hormones-and-trigger-allergies-261204

July 25, 2025

Unlocking nature’s toolkit: how plant compounds may support cancer therapy

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ahmed Elbediwy, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Biochemistry / Cancer Biology, Kingston University

Green tea and red wine may seem like simple dietary choices – but beneath the surface, they harbour compounds with remarkable medical potential. Scientists are uncovering how these everyday drinks might support cancer treatment, not by replacing conventional therapies like chemotherapy or radiotherapy, but by enhancing their effectiveness and reducing their side-effects.

The humble cup of green tea, first enjoyed in first-century China, has long been valued for its cultural significance and traditional health benefits. Tea has historically been used to combat ageing, protect the brain and heart, and aid weight loss. Today, researchers are uncovering a more profound capability – its potential to fight cancer.

The key lies in epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG), a potent antioxidant found in this kind of tea. Antioxidants are protective molecules that help shield cells from damage caused by free radicals and environmental stress, but EGCG appears to do much more.

Cancer cells are notoriously disruptive, hijacking the body’s normal energy-systems to fuel their rapid growth. EGCG targets this very process, disrupting how cancer cells generate energy, and attacking the proteins that help tumours grow and divide. By targeting these proteins, it prevents cancer from multiplying, ultimately leading to cell death.

Even more promising is EGCG’s ability to enhance conventional treatments. Early studies suggest it could make cancer cells more vulnerable to chemotherapy and radiation therapy, potentially reducing the need for high doses and their severe side-effects.

For those who prefer their green tea in powdered form, matcha offers even greater protection, as it’s made from whole ground tea leaves and contains significantly more EGCG than regular green tea.

Red wine’s protective power

Red wine, too, offers compelling potential, thanks to a substance called resveratrol. This compound is found in red grapes, blueberries and peanuts, and has been shown to support the heart, liver and brain. Interestingly, resveratrol works through mechanisms distinct from EGCG.

Rather than targeting cancer cells directly, resveratrol focuses on the tumour’s environment. Cancer cells cleverly surround themselves with blood vessels and supportive tissue, creating a protective fortress that aids growth and spread. Resveratrol disrupts this structure, making tumours vulnerable to conventional treatments.

The compound also enhances the immune system’s ability to recognise and attack cancer cells more effectively. Perhaps most significantly, resveratrol prevents tumours from forming new blood vessels – the lifelines they need to obtain nutrients for growth. Without this blood supply, tumours become starved and eventually die.

Two glasses of red wine on a wooden table in a vineyard. — The cancer-fighting compound resveratrol can be found in red wine. It is especially high in tannat wines.
Nikolaj Sribyanik/Shutterstock.com

Beyond the glass

The potential of natural cancer-fighting compounds extends far beyond our favourite beverages. Apigenin, found in parsley, can slow tumour growth, while turmeric contains curcumin, which disrupts cancer-cell survival. And emodin, found in aloe vera and rhubarb, reduces inflammation and inhibits cancer growth.

However, scientists face a significant challenge: many of these natural substances are poorly absorbed by the body. Research in this area is currently focused on developing enhanced delivery systems, such as wrapping the compounds in tiny lipids called nanoparticles. This approach protects the substances and increases their effectiveness against tumours.

The absorption of natural substances are further improved by mixing compounds with each other such as piperine with curcumin. Piperine is found in black pepper and helps curcumin based nanoparticles to have better bioavailabilty in cancer therapy.

While the research remains in its early stages, the possibility that everyday foods and drinks could one day support cancer treatment represents a fascinating frontier in medical science.

So the next time you reach for a cup of green tea or a glass of red wine, consider this: you may be doing more than relaxing – you could be reinforcing your body’s natural defences against cancer.

Ahmed Elbediwy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Nadine Wehida does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Unlocking nature’s toolkit: how plant compounds may support cancer therapy – https://theconversation.com/unlocking-natures-toolkit-how-plant-compounds-may-support-cancer-therapy-260225

July 25, 2025

As the UK reviews the pension age again, could more time off when you’re young compensate for later retirement?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Malte Jauch, Lecturer in Management and Marketing, University of Essex

The retirement age keeps creeping up. In the UK, the state pension is currently paid to people at 66, but that’s set to rise to 67 in the next couple of years, and a move to 68 might come sooner than previously planned after the government launched a review.

Gradually increasing the working lifespan is never going to be popular. But one way of making this policy more palatable could be to give people early access to some of the free time that retirement promises.

After all, sometimes that promise fails to deliver, because many people die before they reach retirement age.

Globally, about 27% of men and 18% women die before the age of 65 (although this proportion also includes deaths before working age). In wealthy countries, the number of people who die prematurely is lower than the global average, but still significant. In the EU, 16% of men and 8% of women die before 65.

For these people, the promise of free time and leisure in old age never materialises. There will also be many whose physical and mental health will have deteriorated by the time they retire, so that they are less capable of enjoying their free time.

So perhaps slogging away until retirement is not an ideal arrangement.

But what if you could transfer some of the time off that retirement promises to an earlier stage of your life, when everything is a rush, crammed with the demands of work and domestic responsibilities?

Luckily, the stark contrast between a time-poor middle age and a time-rich old age is not unavoidable. Governments can choose different approaches that directly affect how free time is distributed across our life stages.

Japan, for example, is a country which has opted to focus on delaying leisure time, and encourages workers to postpone that enjoyment of free time until old age. It does this in part by rewarding workers with wage increases – known as “seniority-based pay” – if they don’t take career breaks.

Japanese employment law also permits companies to force employees to retire at the age 60. As a result, on average, Japanese workers work 1,680 hours per year and retire at 63.

In the Netherlands by contrast, people work less (1,433 hours per year) and retire later – at 67. Labour laws make it easier for employees to decrease their hours, by going part time, for example.

Discrimination between workers based on work hours is prohibited, so that those who opt for part-time work are guaranteed equal treatment with regard to wages and other benefits. But the high legal age of retirement discourages Dutch workers from early retirement.

So how should we assess these different approaches?

Time on your side?

One way to look at retirement is that it compensates us for our previous hard work. The prospect of compensation might lead us to adopt a relaxed attitude toward long work hours. Once we’ve stopped work, we’ll be rewarded with a large chunk of leisure.

But for those who don’t make it to retirement, this promise of a life of leisure turns out to be a cruel joke. Early deaths are also more prominent among those who have already suffered from poverty and other disadvantages.

Family walking with cityscape background. — The right time for time off?
Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

The same is true for ill health. The disadvantaged are much more likely to suffer from a variety of conditions that prevent them from being able to fully enjoy retirement.

Another risk for those who are healthy when they retire is that relatives or friends may have died. This reduces the value of the retirees’ free time because the loved ones they hoped to share that time with are no longer around.

So perhaps some of that free time could be better used when workers are younger. Raising a family, for example, is extremely time consuming, and there can’t be many parents of young children who don’t wish for a few extra hours a week to call their own.

Even devoting time to hobbies when we’re younger might be considered more efficient than waiting until we have retired. After all, if you learn a new language or how to paint when you’re in your 40s, you may have much more time to enjoy your new skill over the ensuing decades.

My research suggests that for all these reasons, the state should help people take some of their retirement early.

None of us knows how long we will live, or how healthy we will be in the future. Faced with this uncertainty, it makes sense not to gamble with our opportunities for free time and leave it until it may be too late.

Even those who enjoy their work have strong reasons not to postpone a large proportion of their time off, and governments should help us access more of it while we’re younger.

Malte Jauch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As the UK reviews the pension age again, could more time off when you’re young compensate for later retirement? – https://theconversation.com/as-the-uk-reviews-the-pension-age-again-could-more-time-off-when-youre-young-compensate-for-later-retirement-259464

July 25, 2025

Cuban government scrambling to deal with outrage about country’s economic crisis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emily Morris, Research Associate, Institute of the Americas, UCL

Cuba doesn’t have any beggars, according to the country’s minister of labour, Marta Elena Feitó Cabrera. In a speech to the national assembly on July 15, she denied the existence of destitution in the communist country, claiming the problem was actually people “disguised as beggars”.

Her words were greeted by public outcry on social media. They also prompted a swift rebuke from her peers and the president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who said leadership could not “act with condescension”. The next day, the Cuban government published an official note saying Feitó Cabrera had resigned.

The political vulnerability of the Cuban government explains the urgent need to respond to missteps such as Feitó Cabrera’s. The country is enduring an acute economic crisis, which has seen living standards plummet and over 1 million Cubans leave the country since 2020.

Cubans are leaving en masse:

A graph showing net emigration in Cuba. — A severe economic crisis in Cuba has prompted a mass exodus from the island.
Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas e Información

The recession has severely strained the system of social protection that the government points to as one of its main achievements since taking power more than 60 years ago. Despite food subsidies and the efforts of welfare services, a growing number of people are now going hungry.

Public confidence in the government has been severely weakened as a result, particularly among young Cubans. The risk of escalating popular protest is magnified by the proliferation of social media channels, emanating from inside and outside the country.

These channels air the many complaints about daily frustrations in Cuba and highlight any failings or signs of hypocrisy on the part of officials. So when Feitó Cabrera’s speech went viral, it was met with inevitable public outrage.

Díaz-Canel’s reaction can be seen as urgent damage limitation. But it is also consistent with his broader approach to managing the crisis facing his country. He has worked tirelessly to try and defuse anger through engagement, touring Cuba for local meetings to search for solutions.

In his comments after Feitó Cabrera’s speech, he insisted that officials should acknowledge the scale of hardship being suffered, and “help, support and show solidarity” with the disadvantaged and most vulnerable.

This need to reach out was all the more important given the grim tone of the national assembly meeting where Feitó Cabrera made her remarks. Ministers appeared one after the other to present dismal reports on the state of almost all sectors of the Cuban economy.

The electricity system remains plagued by breakdowns caused by chronic underinvestment as well as difficulties in obtaining fuel and spare parts. The resulting daily power outages ensure that the sense of crisis is ever-present and frustrate all efforts to boost production.

Doubting official data

While full official national income data for 2024 has not yet been released, Cuba’s economy ministry estimates that real national income contracted by 1.1% in 2024. This leaves it more than 10% below its pre-pandemic level, and 2025 is not expected to show much improvement.

The decline in real disposable income for Cuban households since 2021 has, in reality, been far greater. The official inflation rate indicates that consumer prices have risen fourfold over the past five years. At this rate, living costs would have increased broadly in line with salaries.

Consumer prices have risen fourfold since 2020:

Official inflation data for Cuba. The spike in early 2021 was the result of a monetary reform, which involved a big jump in wages in December 2020 followed by a currency reform in January 2021.
Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas e Información

But official figures systematically understate the actual increase in prices faced by Cuban households, due to the weightings used. In 2021, for example, research estimated the inflation rate to be between 174% and 700% – well above the government’s estimate (77.3%).

The rising market prices have put many essential goods beyond the reach of most people who depend on state incomes. This has forced many households to depend on remittances or the informal economy to survive.

Thanks to tight fiscal restraint, the official annual rate of inflation eased to 15% in June. But the wide gap between the increase in the actual cost of living and official inflation index continues to compound distrust of the government and the perception that the country’s leaders are out of touch.

A lack of transparency and long delays in the publication of economic data, together with restrictions on the scope for private enterprise, are widely attributed to the government’s incompetence and reluctance to enact liberalising reforms.

Recovery blocked by US sanctions

For these reasons, the government’s insistence that US sanctions are to blame for limiting the possibilities for economic recovery is increasingly regarded with scepticism. However, the constraint on economic growth imposed by US measures is real and severe.

It is also the deliberate aim of US policy. The unilateral sanctions not only block trade, as well as financial and international travel between the US and Cuba. They also severely hamper all kinds of transactions between Cuba and the rest of the world.

Every branch of the Cuban economy has been affected, including the health service, social safety nets, agriculture and industry. And the lack of hard currency has, in turn, limited the scope for the investments and reforms needed for economic recovery.

The easing inflation rate, together with some new investments in renewable energy, an improved fiscal balance and a recent small increase in pensions, may signal that the end of the economic downturn may be approaching. But neither the government nor the population have any confidence that the crisis will come to an end this year.

No one is expecting US sanctions to be lifted while Donald Trump is president. Before Trump first stood for the presidency he hadn’t given Cuba his attention, but as president he has aligned himself firmly with hardliners.

In his first term, Trump reversed the opening with Cuba initiated by Barack Obama. And his current secretary of state, Marco Rubio, is one of the architects and leading proponents of economic sanctions against Cuba. Trade and investment will thus remain depressed, while shortages, power cuts, a lack of transport and crumbling public services will persist.

But by demanding the resignation of the minister of labour, perhaps Díaz-Canel hopes to demonstrate that his government understands what that the economic asphyxiation means for a majority of Cubans struggling to survive.

Emily Morris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Cuban government scrambling to deal with outrage about country’s economic crisis – https://theconversation.com/cuban-government-scrambling-to-deal-with-outrage-about-countrys-economic-crisis-261702

July 25, 2025

Armenia and Azerbaijan are trying to mend fences – what does this mean for Russia?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Matveeva, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s Russia Institute, King’s College London

At a time when Vladimir Putin needs friends in his neighbourhood, he appears instead to be losing them in the South Caucasus. After two centuries of Russian involvement in the region, balancing the historical rivalry and at times acting as mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, there is growing speculation that the two countries are preparing a major reset in relations.

When Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, met the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, in Abu Dhabi on July 10, they reportedly came close to agreeing a peace treaty. The big question is whether, if these two countries can iron out mistrust and violence born of the territorial conflict, there will still be a role for Russia in the South Caucasus.

To understand the complex geopolitics of the region, you need to go back to the early 19th century, when Azerbaijan and what is now the Republic of Armenia) were ceded to Russia following the Russo-Persian wars. After the Russian revolution, the two countries achieved brief independence between 1918 and 1920 (though not in their present borders) before being incorporated into the Soviet Union.

During the Soviet era, the union republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan both felt that Moscow favoured the other. Armenia was unhappy that the Soviet leadership allocated Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority-Armenian exclave surrounded by Azeri-populated lands, to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was dissatisfied that its borders denied it a land connection to its population in Nakhchivan, an exclave of ethnic Azeris that could only be reached via southern Armenia.

In the final years of the Soviet Union, as Armenian nationalism began to assert itself during the period of perestroika (restructuring), Nagorno-Karabakh’s legislature passed a law declaring its intention to join Armenia. This move eventually led to armed clashes in the region.

The first Karabakh war, which raged between 1988 and 1994, began before the Soviet break-up but continued after the two countries gained their independence. In 1994, after more than 30,000 casualties, Russia brokered a ceasefire. The settlement favoured Armenia, leaving it in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and another six surrounding Azerbaijani districts.

Things began to change when Putin took power in Russia in 2000. Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan improved, partly due to his personal rapport with the then-president, Heydar Aliyev, and his son Ilham, who would succeed him in 2003. After 9/11, when combating international terrorism became a global priority, Azerbaijan put measures in place to prevent transfer of fighters and weapons through its territory to the war in Chechnya, which further improved relations with Moscow.

At this stage, Azerbaijan was pursuing what it described as a “multi-vector” foreign policy. This allowed it to develop ties with a variety of countries, including the US, Russia and others to whom it sold oil. While remaining in the Commonwealth of Independent States, it did not sign up to the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia, by contrast, was a fully participating member of the CSTO. Having signed an Eternal Friendship Treaty with Russia in 1997, this was a clear strategic choice for Armenia – partly motivated by historical ties.

Russia had traditionally been seen as a defender of Christianity in the days of the Ottomon empire. Many people had fled massacres in Western Armenia (modern-day Turkey) in 1915 to come under the protection of the Russian Tsar. But Armenia also saw Moscow as a vital security guarantor against an increasingly militarised Azerbaijan, which was determined to recover control of Nagorno-Karabakh and other areas occupied by Armenia.

Map of Azerbaijan and Armenia showing contested regions. — Map showing the concept of the ‘Zanzegur corridor’, which would cut across southernmost Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan.
Mapeh/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-NC

Indeed, it was Nagorno-Karabakh which really soured relations between Armenia and Moscow. In 2020, when – aided by Turkey – Azerbaijan launched its offensive to retake the territory, Russia failed to come to the aid of its CSTO ally. This was expected, given that relations had begun to deteriorate in 2018 when Pashinyan came to power in Armenia.

In hindsight, most commentators believe Russia had become tired of Armenia’s intransigence over the plan, agreed in Madrid in 2007, for it to cede back the six districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

Instead, Moscow brokered a ceasefire agreement and deployed 2,000 peacekeepers along the Lachin corridor, a strip of land connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. But these troops also failed to intervene when an Azeri offensive retook the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, forcing the population of about 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee.

Things sour between Moscow and Baku

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, meanwhile, have gone downhill rapidly. In December 2024, an Azeri civilian airliner was shot down in Russian airspace. Putin apologised, but Azerbaijan insisted on Moscow disclosing the results of the investigation and paying compensation to the victims.

Things got worse at the end of June, when Russian authorities arrested a group of ethnic Azerbaijanis as part of a decades-old murder case. Two of the men died while being detained. Azerbaijan retaliated by raiding the Baku offices of Russia’s Sputnik news agency and detaining the staff as well as a group of Russian IT workers. When they appeared in court, some of the men appeared to have been beaten in custody.

Azerbaijan also denounced Russia in state media and Russia House, the state-funded Russian cultural agency in Baku, was closed down, with several cultural events cancelled. Security agencies began to enforce documentation checks on all Russian nationals in the country.

At the same time, Azerbaijan and Armenia were already talking about concluding a peace treaty independently, without intermediaries. All this has prompted speculation of a serious loss of influence in the region for Moscow.

However, a complete shutout of Russia in the South Caucasus is unlikely. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan depend on remittance income from their nationals in Russia. Both countries also remain close trading partners with Russia. While Armenia suspended its membership in CSTO, it has not quit the organisation altogether.

Far more likely is that the two countries, mindful of the growing influence of Turkey in the region and the shifts created by Donald Trump in world affairs, are manoeuvring while weighing their options. Geography matters, as Georgia’s example demonstrates – efforts to cut ties with Russia by its former president, Mikheil Saakashvili, have been partially reversed by the current government, which increasingly leans towards Moscow.

In the cases of Armenia and Azerbaijan, economic ties, transport links and human connections still favour a relationship with Russia. So, a temporary breakdown in political relations can be mended – if all three leaders demonstrate enough statesmanship to sail through the troubled waters.

Anna Matveeva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Armenia and Azerbaijan are trying to mend fences – what does this mean for Russia? – https://theconversation.com/armenia-and-azerbaijan-are-trying-to-mend-fences-what-does-this-mean-for-russia-261384