Category: English

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Nicola Redhouse, Lecturer, Publishing and Editing, The University of Melbourne

The founder and chief executive of Bloomsbury Publishing, responsible for blockbuster romantasy author Sarah J. Maas and literary heavyweights like George Saunders, has suggested AI “will probably help creativity” – including by helping authors defeat writer’s block.

“AI gets them going and writes the first paragraph, or first chapter, and gets them back in the zone,” he said.

We asked five creative writing experts, including authors who’ve published memoirs, novels and short stories, what they think. Would they use AI to break writer’s block?

Their answers – which ranged from “a hard no” to innovative reasons for “yes” – were illuminating, complicated and often surprising.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Would you use AI to break writer’s block? We asked 5 experts – https://theconversation.com/would-you-use-ai-to-break-writers-block-we-asked-5-experts-271627

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Bruce Wolpe, Non-resident Senior Fellow, United States Study Centre, University of Sydney

As Donald Trump celebrates the anniversary of his second inauguration as president of the United States and begins his sixth year in office, his greatest asset is power. He covets absolute power.

The greatest threat to how Trump completes his term is how he wields his power.

Indeed, in the most foolish act in foreign policy in Trump’s presidency, he has threatened punitive tariffs on Denmark and seven other NATO allies in Europe to force the sale of Greenland to the United States. They are outraged. This is a ridiculous ploy that will not deliver Greenland to Trump.

Read more:
Trump has threatened European countries with higher tariffs if he doesn’t get Greenland. Will it work?

Trump’s escalation in Denmark has already strengthened Putin’s iron resolve to get as much of Ukraine as he can. Prospects for ending the war in Ukraine are now near zero.

On top of Trump’s pending tariffs on Europe, if Trump seizes Greenland, the consequences will shake the world – including Australia. NATO will be terminated. Australia will face an existential question of whether, under those circumstances, it must terminate its alliance with the US.

We can see in a raft of polls at this one-year mark of Trump’s second term that voters across the country are expressing growing disquiet about his management of the economy and the affordability of housing and groceries, the raids by ICE agents as they seize and deport migrants as we saw last week in Minneapolis, and uncertainty about Trump’s foreign adventurism in the Americas and with Iran.

Trump is exercising this power because he can. This will jolt Republicans in Congress to break with Trump on this issue – the first such rift between Trump and his party since his re-election.

Welcome to Trump’s year six.

Trumpism in his second term

Following his election victory in 2024, Trump has been faithful to three of four pillars of Trumpism that made his base a movement that has changed America:

• nativism (favouring US-born citizens over immigrants)

• protectionism and tariffs

• America First nationalism (“Make America Great Again”).

To those ends, Trump is acting aggressively, with immigration agents arresting and deporting tens of thousands, and threats to deploy US troops in American cities to enforce these policies. Trump has imposed punitive tariffs against every trading partner – including Australia, which has a significant trade deficit with the United States. Trump demands foreign companies invest in the United States and build new factories.

But on the fourth Trumpism pillar – America-First isolationism as a driver of America’s foreign policy – Trump has redefined his foreign policy settings with grander ambitions.

Trump has rejected the history of the US waging wars to project American values: protecting Asia from communism in Korea and Vietnam; turning back brutal aggression in Kuwait; punishing the export of radical Islamic terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Trump has applied these lessons to Iran – so far. It is one thing to take out Iran’s nuclear capability. It is another to do regime change – a bridge too far back to the “forever wars” Trump despises.

Trump has buried America’s posture of globalism. He has withdrawn the US from virtually all the architecture, save the United Nations itself, erected after the second world war to ensure global security, stability and prosperity. He has ordered the US out of global organisations, and has cut billions in foreign aid.

The US attack on Venezuela was about much larger goals than arresting its leader. It was about power – controlling power over critical resources in the Americas, from Venezuela to Greenland and everything in between, from Mexico to Cuba to Canada.

Politics at home

Trump is paying a high price at home for his activism in wielding power abroad. Every day Trump spends projecting power outside the United States means he is not paying attention to the American people.

A recent poll shows 56% of US adults believe Trump has gone too far on Venezuela. 57% do not want the US to strike Iran. Even before Trump’s tariff announcement on Greenland, only 17% approved of Trump’s desire to acquire Greenland, and 71% rejected using military force to do it.

Trump’s overall polls are bad. His approval rating is 40% – nearly 10 points down since his inauguration – and disapproval is at 60%. AP-NORC also finds that “Trump hasn’t convinced the Americans that the economy is in good shape.”

CNN polling reports that 55% of those surveyed believe Trump’s policies “have hurt the economy” and that Trump is not doing enough to lower prices. Grocery prices are up sharply. The latest Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump is underwater by double digits on handling inflation, and that he is not focusing enough on the economy.

On immigration, the unrest in Minneapolis and other cities from the harsh methods employed by ICE agents is also taking a toll, with Trump’s approval on that issue lagging below 40%.

But even with all these red flags and warnings from the field, Trump is undeterred. He believes that as president, he can do anything he wants to do. Guardrails that have for decades protected America’s democracy have been cast aside.

Trump has not been blocked – yet – by an ultra-conservative Supreme Court or the pliant Republican Congress for the tariffs he is imposing, the government agencies he has shut down, the monies appropriated by Congress he has terminated, the hundreds of thousands of government employees he has fired, the military strikes he has ordered without advising, much less getting approval from, Congress.

Trump is seeking more control over the economy by seeking to prosecute the chair of the Federal Reserve Bank, an independent agency that sets monetary policy, and to pack its board with loyalists to Trump’s demands that interest rates be lowered.

Since his inauguration, Trump has instructed the Justice Department to prosecute those who attempted to bring him to justice in courtrooms and impeachment proceedings in Congress.

Trump’s musings on power

As Trump consolidates his power, Trump’s musings become imperatives. After months of expressing a desire to own it, Trump is now acting aggressively to conquer Greenland.

At home, Trump is now also musing – twice so far this month – over whether the US midterm elections will be cancelled. Trump knows the likelihood of the Democrats taking back control of the House of Representatives is high. That is precisely what he suffered in the 2018 congressional elections in his first term.

Trump told Reuters last week, “We shouldn’t even have an election,” because of all his great successes.

In January, Trump told Republicans in the House, “I won’t say cancel the election, they should cancel the election, because the fake news would say, ‘He wants the elections cancelled. He’s a dictator.’ They always call me a dictator.” He told them that if the Democrats take the House back they will “find a reason to impeach” him.

Any steps taken – such as declaring martial law to suspend the midterm elections – will be catastrophic. And that is an understatement.

Based on Trump’s restless mind and command of what he believes is absolute power, at stake this year are the future of democracy at home and alliances abroad.

Bruce Wolpe receives funding from the United States Studies Centre. He has worked with the Democrats in the US Congress and for Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

– ref. A year on from his second inauguration, Trump 2.0 has one defining word: power – https://theconversation.com/a-year-on-from-his-second-inauguration-trump-2-0-has-one-defining-word-power-273697

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ben Mather, ARC Early Career Industry Fellow, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne

Our planet has experienced dramatic climate shifts throughout its history, oscillating between freezing “icehouse” periods and warm “greenhouse” states.

Scientists have long linked these climate changes to fluctuations in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, new research reveals the source of this carbon – and the driving forces behind it – are far more complex than previously thought.

In fact, the way tectonic plates move about Earth’s surface plays a major, previously underappreciated role in climate. Carbon doesn’t just emerge where tectonic plates meet. The places where tectonic plates pull away from each other are significant too.

Our new study, published today in the journal Communications, Earth and Environment sheds light on how exactly Earth’s plate tectonics have helped to shape global climate over the past 540 million years.

Peering deep within the carbon cycle

At the boundaries where Earth’s tectonic plates converge, we get chains of volcanoes known as volcanic arcs. Melting associated with these volcanoes unlocks carbon that’s been trapped inside rocks for thousands of years, bringing it to Earth’s surface.

Historically, it’s been thought these volcanic arcs were the primary culprits of injecting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Our findings challenge that view. Instead, we suggest that mid-ocean ridges and continental rifts – locations where the tectonic plates spread apart – have played a much more significant role in driving Earth’s carbon cycles throughout geological time.

This is because the world’s oceans sequester vast quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. They store most of it within carbon-rich rocks on the seafloor. Over thousands of years, this process can produce hundreds of metres of carbon-rich sediment at the bottom of the ocean.

As these rocks then move about the Earth driven by tectonic plates, they may eventually intersect subduction zones – places where tectonic plates converge. This releases their carbon dioxide cargo back into the atmosphere.

This is known as the “deep carbon cycle”. To track the flow of carbon between Earth’s molten interior, oceanic plates and the atmosphere, we can use computer models of how the tectonic plates have migrated through geological time.

What we discovered

Using computer models to reconstruct how Earth moves carbon stored on tectonic plates, we were able to predict major greenhouse and icehouse climates over the last 540 million years.

During greenhouse periods – when Earth was warmer – more carbon was released than trapped within carbon-carrying rocks. In contrast, during icehouse climates, the carbon sequestration into Earth’s oceans dominated, lowering atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and triggering cooling.

One of the key takeaways from our study is the critical role of the deep-sea sediments in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide. As Earth’s tectonic plates slowly move, they carry carbon-rich sediments, which are eventually returned into Earth’s interior through a process known as subduction.

We show that this process is a major factor in determining whether Earth is in a greenhouse or icehouse state.

A shift in understanding the role of volcanic arcs

Historically, the carbon emitted from volcanic arcs has been considered one of the largest sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

However, this process only became dominant in the last 120 million years thanks to planktic calcifiers. These little ocean critters belong to a family of phytoplankton whose main talent lies in converting dissolved carbon into calcite. They are responsible for sequestering vast amounts of atmospheric carbon into carbon-rich sediment deposited on the seafloor.

Planktic calcifiers only evolved about 200 million years ago, and spread through the world’s oceans about 150 million years ago. So, the high proportion of carbon spewed into the atmosphere along volcanic arcs in the past 120 million years is mostly due to the carbon-rich sediments these creatures created.

Before this, we found that carbon emissions from mid-ocean ridges and continental rifts – regions where tectonic plates diverge – actually contributed more significantly to atmospheric carbon dioxide.

A new perspective for the future

Our findings offer a new perspective on how Earth’s tectonic processes have shaped, and will continue to shape, our climate.

These results suggest Earth’s climate is not just driven by atmospheric carbon. Instead, the climate is influenced by the intricate balance between carbon emissions from Earth’s surface and how they get trapped in sediments on the seafloor.

This study also provides crucial insights for future climate models, especially in the context of current concerns over rising carbon dioxide levels.

We now know that Earth’s natural carbon cycle, influenced by the shifting tectonic plates beneath our feet, plays a vital role in regulating the planet’s climate.

Understanding this deep time perspective can help us better predict future climate scenarios and the ongoing effects of human activity.

Ben Mather receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Adriana Dutkiewicz receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Dietmar Müller receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Sabin Zahirovic has received funding from the Alfred Sloan Foundation’s Deep Carbon Observatory, the Australian Research Council, and BHP via the STELLAR industry collaborative project.

– ref. The way Earth’s surface moves has a bigger impact on shifting the climate than we knew – https://theconversation.com/the-way-earths-surface-moves-has-a-bigger-impact-on-shifting-the-climate-than-we-knew-272352

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Shannon Brincat, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of the Sunshine Coast

In an extraordinary escalation of his bid to claim Greenland, US President Donald Trump has threatened eight European countries – Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Great Britain, France and Germany and the Netherlands – with a 10% tariff on all goods coming into the United States from February 1 until he is able to buy the semi-autonomous Danish territory. That tariff will then increase to 25% on June 1.

On the one hand, Greenland is potentially rich in raw materials and rare earth minerals, highly desirable for US tech giants who control key levers of power in Washington. On the other, Trump claims it is necessary for national security.

Greenland is part of a sovereign country, Denmark, and any offensive action against it would constitute an act of aggression.

In the past few days, a small number of European troops have arrived in Greenland to bolster its defences. Trump’s recalcitrant stance has sent shockwaves across Europe, which is now questioning the future of NATO.

So what might happen now?

The US needs a pretext of self-defence

Aggressive wars are illegal under international law. Under the UN Charter, the use of force is lawful only when

1. authorised by the UN Security Council under Chapter VII

2. as self-defence under Article 51 in response to an armed attack.

In this case, as the US’ claims have no backing from the UNSC, its use of force would require a pretext or provocation that would allow self-defence – in other words, an attack or imminent attack.

As I always tell my students in international law, these must be scrutinised carefully as there is long, chequered history behind such claims. The key problem are “false flags” by which states fabricate or manufacture a threat or attack to justify their own offensive operations.

A recent example of this is the illegal use of force in the US-led 2003 Iraq War. This was publicly sold on two claims that had no factual basis: that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction and/or had close ties to al-Qaeda (and, by implication, the September 11 attacks). Even though these have been disproven, many continue to believe it.

The US wants to take over Greenland as a forward base, so we should be wary of false flags that may arise in this context. The US has justified its claim as preventing aggression from China and Russia, even though there is no evidence of their presence.

However, the potential of rivals in a region does not authorise the use of force against a third-party state. Any attack on Greenland would remain naked aggression.

What could Europe do?

There are several things Europe could do in response.

It could deploy forces, as already requested by Greenland. The Danish government has already expanded its military in Greenland and launched “Operation Arctic Endurance” in cooperation with allies including France, Germany, Norway and Sweden.

But sending 50-100 troops to Greenland is hardly a show of strength, with a handful of soldiers to cover areas the size of Switzerland.

Countries in NATO have an agreement for collective defence.
In the unlikely event of a US attack, the alliance would be sorely tested, especially given the US is a long-standing member. NATO has weathered inter-alliance disputes before, such as the 1956 Suez Crisis.

Many question whether NATO would dissolve, or if many members would leave. Certainly, it would weaken its reputation and paralyse it for some time.

Europe could threaten to close access to all military bases in Europe as this would dramatically hamper US capabilities not only in Europe but Russia, the Middle-East, and North Africa.

However, the biggest retaliatory threat Europe could muster is the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) and selling off of US bonds, of which Europe holds substantial leverage (around 28% of foreign holdings). If other states, such as China, followed suit, the US economy would likely collapse because of the rapid devaluing of the dollar. However, this is the “nuclear option”, and risks self-harm to European financial power at the same time.

Overall, Europe is in a much weaker position – hampered not only by lack of military parity but energy dependency on the US. After the mysterious destruction of the Nord Stream Pipeline, Europe is energy dependent on the US – and everyone knows it.

Moreover, if Europe took action against the US in Greenland, it would then also have to shoulder the commitment to Ukraine in the war with Russia. It would be hard-pressed on two fronts.

What would Australia and other allies do?

It is doubtful many states would actively defend Greenland against the US. But not many states would actively support it either, and with that turning away from the US as “saviour”, world order would have profoundly shifted. It would likely signal the end of the liberal international order, taking any semblance of international law with it.

All other allies would be put on notice of a rogue ally. Emboldening Trump would be highly dangerous: Cuba and Iran have already been listed. More operations in Venezuela would be possible. But he has also made statements about sending troops to Mexico and threatening Colombia. Canada is already extremely worried, given Trump’s claims of making it “the 51st state” in early 2025. Where would it end?

Australia would be in the extremely difficult position of having to side with either the US, Europe, or take an independent stance.

It would also be worried about risking the AUKUS agreement – a treaty essential for Australian defence. Taiwan would be questioning the credibility of US protection. World public opinion, already dangerously low regarding Trump, would plummet further.

For these reasons, it highly like this is all just bluster from the US to coerce Greenland from Denmark. Some have explored how US security concerns could be met without annexing Greenland but this is not the point for Trump, who is seeking to appear as the “strong man” to his MAGA supporters.

What appears likely is that European powers will offer concessions so that Trump appears to “win” for his domestic base. It has been reported that EU officials will propose to use NATO to bolster Arctic security and give the US concessions on mineral extraction. This is classic appeasement. Emboldened, we could expect further aggressive US action elsewhere.

The long-term damage would be to US credibility, with all allies on notice of aberrant and erratic behaviour. Trump’s attempts to grasp at resources and forward defences highlights US decline more than anything else.

Europe seems likely to fare little better, revealed to be utterly dependent on the US and a distinct lack of principles for its members. The real loser is the West: fractured and eating itself.

Shannon Brincat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump has threatened European countries with higher tariffs if he doesn’t get Greenland. Will it work? – https://theconversation.com/trump-has-threatened-european-countries-with-higher-tariffs-if-he-doesnt-get-greenland-will-it-work-273698

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Samuel Garrett, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

A year into US President Donald Trump’s second term, his record use of executive orders, impoundment of government spending, and military interventions in Venezuela and Iran have sparked criticisms from Democrats and even some Republicans. They say he is unconstitutionally sidelining Congress.

As Trump increasingly wields his power unilaterally, some have wondered what the point of Congress is now. Isn’t it supposed to act as a check on the president?

But the power of the modern presidency had already been growing for decades. Successive presidents from both parties have taken advantage of constitutional vagaries to increase the power of the executive branch. It’s a long-running institutional battle that has underwritten US political history.

The years-long erosion of Congress’ influence leaves the president with largely unchecked power. We’re now seeing the consequences.

A fraught relationship

Congress is made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Under the US Constitution, it’s the branch of the government tasked with making laws. It’s supposed to act as a check on the president and the courts.

It can pass legislation, raise taxes, control government spending, review and approve presidential nominees, advise and consent on treaties, conduct investigations, declare war, impeach officials, and even choose the president in a disputed election.

But the Constitution leaves open many questions about where the powers of Congress end and the powers of the president begin.

In a 2019 ruling on Trump’s tax returns, the judge commented:

disputes between Congress and the President are a recurring plot in our national story. And that is precisely what the Framers intended.

Relative power between the different branches of the US government has changed since independence as constitutional interpretations shifted. This includes whether the president or Congress takes the lead on making laws.

Although Congress holds legislative power, intense negotiations between Congress and the executive branch (led by the president) are now a common feature of US lawmaking. Modern political parties work closely with the president to design and pass new laws.

Redefining the presidency

By contrast, presidents in the 19th and early 20th centuries generally left Congress to lead policymaking. Party “czars” in Congress dominated the national legislative agenda.

Future president Woodrow Wilson noted in 1885 that Congress:

has entered more and more into the details of administration, until it has virtually taken into its own hands all the substantial powers of government.

Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt after him would later help to redefine the president not only as the head of the executive branch, but as head of their party and of the government.

In the 1970s, in the wake of the Watergate scandal and secret bombing of Cambodia, Congress sought to expand its oversight over what commentators suggested was becoming an “imperial presidency”.

This included the passage of the 1973 War Powers Resolution, designed to wrest back Congressional control of unauthorised military deployments.

Nevertheless, the Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama administrations all argued that Congressional authorisation was not required for operations in Kosovo, Iraq and Libya (though Bush still sought authorisation to secure public support).

In turn, the Trump administration argued its actions in Venezuela were a law-enforcement operation, to which the resolution does not apply.

Why presidents bypass Congress

Historically, presidents have sought to bypass Congress for reasons of personality or politics. Controversial decisions that would struggle to pass through Congress are often made using executive orders.

Obama’s 2011 “We Can’t Wait” initiative used executive orders to enact policy priorities without needing to go through a gridlocked Congress. One such policy was the 2012 creation of the DACA program for undocumented immigrants.

Franklin Roosevelt’s use of executive orders dwarfed that of his predecessors. He issued eight times as many orders in his 12-year tenure than were signed in the first 100 years of the United States’ existence.

The question of what constitutes a genuine threat to the preservation of the nation is especially pertinent now. More than 50 “national emergencies” are currently in effect in the United States.

This was the controversial basis of Trump’s tariff policy under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. It bypassed Congressional approval and is now being considered by the Supreme Court.

Recent presidents have also increasingly claimed executive privilege to block Congress’ subpoena power.

Institutional wrestling

Institutional wrestling is a feature of Congressional relations with the president, even when the same party controls the White House and both chambers of the legislature, as the Republican party does now.

While Roosevelt dominated Congress, his “court-packing plan” to take control of the US Supreme Court in 1937 proved a bridge too far, even for his own sweeping Democratic majorities. The Democrats controlled three quarters of both the House and Senate and yet refused to back his plan.

More recently, former Democrat Speaker Nancy Pelosi delivered many of Barack Obama’s early legislative achievements, but still clashed with the president in 2010 over congressional oversight.

As House minority leader, she rallied many Democrats against Obama’s US$1.1 trillion (A$1.6 trillion) budget proposal in 2014. Obama was forced to rely on Republican votes in 2015 to secure approval for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, despite his heavy lobbying of congressional Democrats.

Even today’s Congress, which has taken Trump’s direction at almost every turn, demonstrated its influence perhaps most notably by forcing the president into a backflip on the release of the Epstein files after a revolt within Trump’s supporters in the Republican party.

Given the extremely slim Republican majority in Congress, the general unity of the Republican party behind Trump has been a key source of his political strength. That may be lost if public opinion continues to turn against him.

Is Trump breaking the rules?

Trump and his administration have taken an expansive view of presidential power by regularly bypassing Congress.

But he’s not the first president to have pushed the already blurry limits of executive power to redefine what is or is not within the president’s remit. The extent to which presidents are even bound by law at all is a matter of long running academic debate.

Deliberate vagaries in US law and the Constitution mean the Supreme Court is ultimately the arbiter of what is legal.

The court is currently the most conservative in modern history and has taken a sweeping view of presidential power. The 2024 Supreme Court ruling that presidents enjoy extensive immunity suggests the president is, in fact, legally able to do almost anything.

Regardless, public opinion and perceptions of illegality continue to be one of the most important constraints on presidential action. Constituents can take a dim view of presidential behaviour, even if it’s not technically illegal.

Even if Trump can legally act with complete authority, it’s public opinion — not the letter of the law — that may continue to shape when, and if, he does so.

Samuel Garrett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Congress’ power has been diminishing for years, leaving Trump to act with impunity – https://theconversation.com/congress-power-has-been-diminishing-for-years-leaving-trump-to-act-with-impunity-273099

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Carlos Gutiérrez Hita, Profesor titular de Universidad. Economía industrial (transporte, energía, telecomunicaciones), Universidad Miguel Hernández

A tragic accident on the high-speed train line between Andalusia and Madrid has exposed the urgent need to upgrade Spain’s railway system.

At 19:45 on Sunday January 18, a modern Iryo high-speed train collided with a Renfe train at the switch (turnout) leading into Adamuz station in Córdoba province, Andalusia. The Iryo 6189 service, travelling from Málaga to Madrid, had registered for the track change, but the current information is that the last three carriages literally jumped over the diverted switch that gives access to the track adjacent to the platform, leaving the main track clear.

This caused the last three carriages to derail and collide with the Renfe Alvia 2384 service, which was travelling in the opposite direction from Madrid to Huelva. The collision was violent, though the combined speed of the two trains is still unknown.

Rail liberalisation in Spain

The Spanish passenger rail market was opened up to new competitors in May 2021, but until early 2023 the only trains permitted to run on the Andalusia-Madrid corridor were those operated by the state-owned company Renfe. The reason was that the blocking and safety system on these tracks had not been updated.

Following pressure from new operators OUIGO (owned by French state-owned company SNCF) and Iryo (owned by Trenitalia and its Spanish partners AirNostrum and Globalia), which were already active on the Madrid-Barcelona and Madrid-Levante routes, the Andalusian route was opened up to competitors. This increased the frequency of services and expanded the choice available to users.

The high-speed line from Madrid to Andalusia was inaugurated in 1992, making it the oldest in Spain. Although it has been improved and upgraded in several areas, its safety systems are in urgent need of renovation.

Signalling systems

Across the EU’s nearly 227,000km of railway tracks, there more than 25 different, non-interoperable train protection and signalling systems. These systems (the German LZB, the French Crocodile, the Italian BACC, the Spanish Asra, and so on) control and enable the safe movement of trains.

The German LZB (Linienzugbeeinflussung) signalling system remains in operation on the Andalusia-Madrid railway corridor, installed for the high-speed line. Although efficient, this system is surpassed by the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS), which is already installed on the newest lines.

The ERTMS specifications come from European Union Council Directive 96/48/EC. The aim is for this trans-European system to completely replace national systems and be fully deployed throughout the EU by 2050. The intermediate target is for it to be in use by 2030 on the 51,000km of train lines that make up the nine main corridors of Europe’s core rail network.

In Spain, the new ERTMS system currently exists alongside the old LZB system, which modern trains “read” with a technical workaround known as Specific Transmission Modules (STMs).

Possible causes of the accident

The causes of the accident are still unclear, but it is unlikely to be a fault with the train for several reasons: the trains involved are modern and new, with little wear and tear, and the last technical inspection of the Iryo 6189 train had been carried out four days earlier. Inspections cover many things, including the condition of the wheel flanges, possible stress fractures, the different types of brakes, and so on.

As far as we know, the infrastructure at the point of the accident is also new, meaning the track geometry (curves, straight sections, slopes, ramps) should be in perfect condition. This leaves the possibility that the switch point may not have functioned properly.

At all intermediate stations that are not high-capacity, there are passing tracks or sidings where trains can park and let other trains pass that may be coming behind them and not stopping at that station.

The Iryo train unit was changing tracks to park. One possible hypothesis is that the switch mechanism initially worked correctly due to the signal sent by the LZB reading STM system, but that, for some reason, the switch point moved to the “straight” position prematurely. This would have caused the right wheel of the Iryo unit to collide, jumping over to the adjacent track due to centrifugal force and speed, in the opposite direction to the switch, towards the Renfe unit, which was travelling in the opposite direction. The Renfe train was dragged from the cab down to a currently unknown number of carriages, as can be seen in the images released.

Another possibility is that there was an object on the track, but this would have caused the train to derail from the front.

A deteriorating network

Spain’s high-speed railways, once an emblem of reliability, modernity and vision for the future, have gradually deteriorated. Delays have gone from being rare and brief to lengthy, which has led Renfe to withdraw its commitment to punctuality and ticket refunds. Ongoing incidents affecting the infrastructure managed by the state-owned company ADIF – involving overhead lines, brakes and couplings (such as in the tunnel connecting Madrid’s Atocha and Chamartín stations) – have also undermined user confidence.

Additionally, political ups and downs have prevented the development of a single, agreed-upon plan for the viability, modernisation and structure of the network, which would provide a safe means of transport to meet the growing demand for rail services instead of air travel for distances of up to 800-1,000 kilometres.

The reality is that at this moment there are at least 39 dead, dozens injured and a starkly poor impression of the Spanish railway system. Political and technical leaders must take responsibility, regardless of their ideologies and survival strategies. At stake is a transport system used by a growing number of people in the business and tourism sectors alike, and a major component of the country’s infrastructure.

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Carlos Gutiérrez Hita receives funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, and from the Valencian regional Ministry of Education, Culture, Universities and Employment.

– ref. Spain high-speed train crash: signalling vulnerabilities could be key to understanding the accident – https://theconversation.com/spain-high-speed-train-crash-signalling-vulnerabilities-could-be-key-to-understanding-the-accident-273865