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November 13, 2025

Kyiv’s European allies debate ways of keeping the cash flowing to Ukraine but the picture on the battlefield is grim

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Veronika Hinman, Deputy Director, Portsmouth Military Education Team, University of Portsmouth

The EU is considering a range of options as it tries to work out how to continue to fund Ukraine’s defence against Russia. There are three mechanisms presently under consideration. One is using Russia’s frozen assets to back a loan of €140 billion (£124 billion). Another is borrowing the money at interest, although this is not popular.

The third idea, which was proposed by Norwegian economists, is that Norway could use its €1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund – the biggest in the world – to guarantee the loan. Their reasoning was that Norway, Europe’s biggest producer of oil and gas, has made an extra €109 billion from the rise in gas prices after Russia’s invasion.

The situation on the front has been largely static for months, although Russian forces have been making small gains in some key areas. The battles for the strategically important cities of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine and Huliaipole in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia are a good indication of the progress of the war in general.

It’s hard, amid the flood of disinformation, to accurately monitor from a distance the exact status of these two important battles. Each day brings fresh reports of multiple attacks and advances by Russian troops. There have also been reports that Russian units have captured Pokrovsk. This would be a serious blow for Ukraine, as it’s an important supply hub, with several roads and rail lines converging there.

But the US-based military think-tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which uses geolocated footage on which to base its assessments, has determined that Russia is not yet in full control of Pokrovsk, having to date seized 46% of the city. ISW analysts say Russian military bloggers are “mounting a concerted informational campaign prematurely calling the fall of Pokrovsk, likely to influence the information space”.

The battle for Pokrovsk has raged for nearly 18 months now, without resolution – but with huge casualties on both sides.

Similarly, while the situation in Huliaipole is deteriorating for the Ukrainian defenders, “Russian forces will probably spend considerable time setting conditions for efforts to seize the settlement”, the ISW says.

It’s important to realise that Russian troops initially entered Huliaipole on March 5 2022 within weeks of its initial invasion the previous month, but were quickly pushed back by Ukrainian troops. Fighting has continued in the region ever since.

In other words while both sides have made some tactical gains, neither holds the strategic upper hand.

One thing is clear: despite the claims and counter-claims, both sides have suffered significant casualties. In June 2025, the UK Ministry of Defence estimated more than one million Russian troops have been killed or injured since the invasion in February 2022. But Russia still retains considerable reserves of troops to call on, and has not yet had to resort to full mobilisation.

Meanwhile Russia’s economy is holding up, despite western sanctions. The effect of the recent imposition of oil sanctions by the US has yet to be seen. At the same time, Russia’s continuing and thriving diplomatic, economic and military relationships with its “enabler ally” China, as well as others on the anti-west axis such as Iran and North Korea – which have been supplying Moscow with weaponry and troops, respectively – is helping it sustain its offensive efforts.

ISW map showing the state of the conflict in Ukraine, November 11 2025. — The state of the conflict in Ukraine, November 11 2025.
Institute for the Study of War

Financing Ukraine’s defence

Ukraine, meanwhile, is now almost entirely reliant on continued western support. Since Donald Trump took power in the US in January, the US stance towards Ukraine has shifted considerably and while Kyiv’s friends in Nato can continue to purchase US weaponry for Ukraine’s war effort, the US will not fund any of the purchases. Consequently, military aid to Ukraine has slowed considerably in the second half of 2025 – by up to 43% according to German research non-profit the Kiel Institute.

EU leaders voted in October to meet Ukraine’s “pressing financial needs” for another two years, but have yet to agree on a way of doing that. Using frozen Russian assets comes with a number of difficulties. These assets are held in Belgium by the securities depository Euroclear. But Brussels is wary of the move, arguing that a Russian lawsuit against the move, if successful, could leave Belgium liable.

The other obstacle is that it would need to be unanimously approved by EU member states, something that is thought highly unlikely. The idea of using frozen Russian assets has already been rejected by Hungary and Slovakia. And the recent victory of the populist ANO party in the Czech Republic could signal further isolation for Ukraine. One of the first gestures made by the new Czech government has been to remove the Ukrainian flag from the parliament building.

If Norway were willing to use its US$2 trillion sovereign wealth fund to guarantee a €160 billion loan to Ukraine, it would effectively bypass the need for EU unanimity. But the country’s finance minister, former Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, appeared to rule that out on November 12 when he said guaranteeing the whole amount was “not an option”.

What impact is this loan likely to make in the grand scheme of things? The funds supplied thus far have kept Ukraine from defeat, but have not enabled it to strike a decisive blow against Russia that would win the war or enable it to negotiate a just peace.

At the same time it is realistic to acknowledge that while a massive injection of funds would help Ukraine stabilise its economy and buy enough arms to give their troops a better chance on the battlefield, it cannot deliver the manpower, weapons or morale. In the end, this latest wave of aid may buy Ukraine time – but it’s unlikely to deliver victory.

Veronika Hinman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Kyiv’s European allies debate ways of keeping the cash flowing to Ukraine but the picture on the battlefield is grim – https://theconversation.com/kyivs-european-allies-debate-ways-of-keeping-the-cash-flowing-to-ukraine-but-the-picture-on-the-battlefield-is-grim-269541

November 13, 2025

Early climate models got global warming right – but now US funding cuts threaten the future of climate science data

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

Since the 1960s, scientists have been developing and honing models to understand how the earth’s climate is changing. These models help predict the phenomena that accompany that change, such as stronger storms, rising sea levels and warming temperatures.

One such pioneer of early climate modelling is Syukuro Manabe, who won the Nobel prize in physics in 2021 for his work laying the foundation for our current understanding of how carbon dioxide affects global temperatures. That same year, a seminal paper he co-published in 1967 was voted the most influential climate science paper of all time.

Syukuro Manabe pointing to a chart. — Syukuro Manabe at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we speak to Nadir Jeevanjee, a researcher at the same lab in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration where Manabe once worked. He looks back at the history of these early climate models, and how many of their major predictions have stood the test of time.

“ On one hand, we’ve gone way beyond Manabe in the decades since,” says Jeevanjee. “And on the other hand, some of those insights were so deep that we keep coming back to them to deepening our understanding.”

And yet, as climate negotiators gather in the Brazilian city of Belem on the edge of the Amazon for the Cop30 climate summit to hammer out new pledges on reducing carbon emissions and how to pay for climate adaptation, the data sources that climate scientists around the world rely on to monitor and model the climate are under threat from funding cuts by the Trump administration.

“We all do this work because we believe in its importance,” says Jevanjee. “And so the idea that the work isn’t necessarily valued by the present government, or that we wouldn’t be able to do it, or that somehow our lab and the models that it produces and all the science that comes out of it will be curtailed or shut, is alarming.”

Listen to the interview with Nadir Jeevanjee on The Conversation Weekly podcast, and read an article he wrote about five forecasts that early climate models by Suki Manabe and his colleagues got right.

This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Katie Flood, Mend Mariwany and Gemma Ware. Mixing by Eleanor Brezzi and theme music by Neeta Sarl.

Newsclips in this episode from CNN.

Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here. A transcript of this episode is available via the Apple Podcasts or Spotify apps.

Nadir Jeevanjee works for NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, which is discussed in this podcast episode. The views expressed herein are in no sense official positions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the Department of Commerce.

– ref. Early climate models got global warming right – but now US funding cuts threaten the future of climate science data – https://theconversation.com/early-climate-models-got-global-warming-right-but-now-us-funding-cuts-threaten-the-future-of-climate-science-data-269639

November 13, 2025

First indictments issued as Donald Trump’s ‘grand conspiracy’ theory begins to take shape

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security & Dean of Faculty, University of Hull

In recent weeks, Donald Trump’s supporters have begun to align around the idea that a Democrat-led “grand conspiracy” – potentially involving former president Barack Obama – has been plotting against the US president since 2016. The narrative is that the 2016 Russia investigation, which resulted in the Mueller inquiry was part of this deep-state opposition to Trump, as was the investigation into the January 6 riot at the US Capitol.

The focus of the fightback by Trump’s supporters is in Miami, where a Trump-appointed US attorney, Jason A. Reding Quiñones, has begun to issue subpoenas to a wide range of former officials.

This has included former CIA director John Brennan, former FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok, former FBI attorney Lisa Page and former director of national intelligence James Clapper, all of whom were involved in the federal investigation into alleged links between Russian intelligence and Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

The way the so-called conspiracy is unfolding will feel familiar to anyone who has watched US politics closely in the past decade. There’s been a constant stream of allegations and counter-allegations. But the narrative from the Trump camp is that the powerful “deep state” forces have been arrayed against the president. The “two-tier” justice system that has persecuted Trump can only be rebalanced by pursuing those who investigated him in 2017 and 2021.

The Grand Conspiracy contains similarities with other prominent conspiracy theories and how they spread. The QAnon movement, whose most famous claim is of a global paedophile ring run out of a Washington pizza parlour involving senior Democrats, is one where disparate claims are sporadically and partially evidenced. The political potency of these claims does not sit in the individual pieces of evidence but in the overarching story.

The story is that hidden government and proxy networks manipulate the truth and judicial outcomes and that only through pressure from “truthers” (what many people in the US who believe conspiracy theories call themselves) will wrongdoers be brought to account. Once these ideas are popularised, they take on a momentum and a direction that is difficult to control.

Campaign of ‘lawfare’

Soon after his inauguration, Trump set up a “weaponization working group” within the Department of Justice. Its director, Ed Martin, said in May that he would expose and discredit people he believes to be guilty, even if the evidence wasn’t sufficient to charge them: “If they can be charged, we’ll charge them. But if they can’t be charged, we will name them. And we will name them, and in a culture that respects shame, they should be people that are ashamed.”

In the US the norm has been to “charge crimes, not people”, so this modification fundamentally changes the focus of prosecutors.

Former FBI director James Comey responds to his indictment by grand jury in September.

The recent subpoenas in Florida show this principle at work, effectively making legal process into the punishment. Even without full court hearings on specific charges, being forced to provide testimony or documents creates suspicion around those who are targeted. Criticism from legal officials that this is a “indict first, investigate second” method suggests that this is a break from historical norms.

Lawfare, defined as “legal action undertaken as part of a hostile campaign”, doesn’t require a successful prosecution. It merely requires enough investigative activity to solidify a narrative of suspected guilt and enough costs and pressure to seriously inconvenience those affected by it. In the new era of digital media, it’s enough to degrade the standing of a political opponent.

In that way, political retaliation has become a prosecuting objective. This is clear from what the US president has indicated in his frequent posts on his social media platforms for his enemies, such as former FBI director James Comey, who investigated his alleged links to Russia, or Adam Schiff, the senator who led his impeachment in 2019.

Hardball politics or authoritarianism?

Political scientists argue that authoritarianism is something that happens little by little. Some of these steps involve using state power to target political opponents, degrading checks and balances and making loyalty a legal requirement.

There are reasons to believe that the US seems to be tracking this trajectory currently, certainly when it comes to using the Justice Department to harass the president’s political enemies and pushing back against court judgments while attacking the judges that have issued them.

Further slides towards authoritarianism are possible because of the political potency of contemporary conspiracy movements. The right-wing QAnon movement, for example, has been exceptionally agile. It has offered its followers identity, community spaces and a logic that encourages active participation, exhorting believers to “do your own research”, for example.

In the wake of the near daily addition of material from the investigations into the allegations that the late financier, Jeffrey Epstein, ran a sex trafficking ring, involving some influential US citizens, many American citizens have concluded as a general truth that their elites do hide things. This makes it far simpler for broader conspiracies to gain traction and more difficult for politicians and journalists to work out what is conspiracy and what is evidence. This is creating a problematic feedback loop – hints of wrongdoing fuel public suspicion, and public suspicion fuels the idea of a further need for investigation.

But to suggest that anyone has control over this would be wrong. These movements can just as easily consume those seen as supporters as they do those seen as enemies. Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s determination to release the full and unredacted Epstein files could well produce negative outcomes for some Maga supporters, including prominent ones.

So, the transformation of legal process into public spectacle in America is suggestive of a drift towards authoritarianism. America’s famous “constitutional guardrails” of separation of powers, independent courts, juries and counsels will be pivotal in preventing this. They will need to stand firm.

The grand conspiracy theory might be more about seeking to isolate, and financially and emotionally exhaust opponents, while at the same time destroying America’s system of checks and balances. It might work.

Robert Dover does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. First indictments issued as Donald Trump’s ‘grand conspiracy’ theory begins to take shape – https://theconversation.com/first-indictments-issued-as-donald-trumps-grand-conspiracy-theory-begins-to-take-shape-269542

November 13, 2025

COP30: Governments must empower forest communities to keep fossil fuels underground

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Philippe Le Billon, Professor, Geography Department and School of Public Policy & Global Affairs, University of British Columbia

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has dubbed COP30 the forest COP. Taking place in Belém, a large urban centre in the Amazon, this choice signals a welcome shift from the capital cities of petro-states to the heart of the world’s most bio-diverse rainforest.

Yet, even as Belém hosts global climate negotiators, the Amazon and its coastline are under renewed pressure. While the spotlight is on protecting trees, new oil concessions are being awarded to keep rigs pumping.

On Nov. 11, dozens of Indigenous protesters forced their way into the COP30 venue demanding an end to industrial development in the Amazon. Indigenous leaders attending COP30 are demanding more say in how forests are managed.

Amid this tension, a new financial initiative has emerged as the potential solution: the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF). Managed by the World Bank as a multilateral trust fund, it would mobilize US$125 billion from public and private investors to reward forested countries for keeping their forests standing — forever.

The pitch is seductive — save forests, earn profits and mitigate climate change all at once. But the proposal raises two questions that demand scrutiny: Will this scheme actually make a major difference for the climate, and how will it impact communities who live in forests?

Protecting trees

The first question is easier to tackle. Yes, tropical forests store immense amounts of carbon so protecting them is vital. But this contribution is largely contingent on keeping global temperature below 2 C and is dwarfed by the emissions risked if fossil fuels buried beneath those same forests are extracted and burned.

Out of the 74 countries with TFFF-qualifying forests, 68 countries have fossil fuel deposits within them. In total, according to a study by the NGO Leave It In The Ground, there would be some 317 billion tonnes of potential carbon dioxide emissions from recoverable reserves and more than 4.6 trillion tonnes if all deposits were exploited.

Nearly all of it is concentrated in just three countries: China, India and Indonesia. To be truly effective, forest protection must come with a firm commitment: no fossil fuel extraction underneath.

To be equitable, a similar scheme must cover non-TFFF countries, and in particular those with boreal forests covering major fossil fuel deposits, namely in Canada and Russia.

That means prioritizing forests located above fossil fuel reserves and ensuring they remain completely off-limits to exploitation.

For this to happen, countries must make binding commitments, investors must accept lower-risk but longer-term returns and local communities must hold forest tenure rights that cannot be overridden by state ownership of subsoil resources. It’s a tall order — but without such a framework, the “forever forest” concept risks becoming just another limited climate solution.

The term forever forests evokes the advertising slogan of diamond company De Beers — “A Diamond is forever” — and reveals a similar logic: to turn nature into financial assets. A more fitting concept might be what fisheries economist Rashid Sumaila would call the infinity forest — a forest that, like fish stocks, is renewable when soundly managed as a common good.

Many of the world’s forests are not untouched wildernesses but co-created landscapes, shaped through millennia of Indigenous and local stewardship. The Amazon, for instance, is a complex social biome, nurtured through practices such as controlled burning, seed dispersal and farming.

While not all traditional practices are benign, archaeological and ecological evidence shows that many Indigenous and peasant communities have managed forests sustainably — often more effectively than state-led conservation programs and with major implications for biodiversity protection.

In fact, many studies show that biodiversity conservation is more effective in territories governed by Indigenous peoples than in state-managed protected areas.

A financial trap for forest communities

Beyond its likely ineffectiveness for the climate, the TFFF could also have devastating consequences for forest communities. Under Brazil’s current proposal, countries would receive around US$4 for every hectare of protected forest, with 80 cents trickling down to local communities.

But they would be fined US$400 per hectare for any deforestation. This creates a dangerous dynamic: states will crack down on small-scale forest use by local people while giving free rein to industries — such as oil — that generate far higher returns.

In effect, the scheme risks criminalizing traditional forest practices — from small-scale clearing to hunting or gathering — that have sustained these ecosystems for centuries.

As governments seek to avoid penalties, forest communities could face exclusion, forced resettlement or even violence, echoing a long history of displacement caused by “conservation” projects and carbon offset schemes such as REDD+.

Financializing the forest’s future

This brings us to the Indigenous and forest defenders who disrupted COP30 events on Nov. 11. Their protest highlighted the real danger behind the TFFF: the financialization of Indigenous territories.

The scheme does nothing to prevent oil and gas extraction beneath forest lands. What were once commons could become commodities promising investors lucrative returns.

In short, “forever forests” may deliver forever profits — not so much for the people who protect them as for those who exploit their value. This is, bluntly, a new form of green colonialism — a profitable appropriation of the forest’s future.

If the TFFF goes ahead, it must first grant some degree of self-government to Indigenous forest communities — as Colombia recently did — and explicitly prohibit fossil fuel extraction in protected forests.

Investors should pay a premium for forests covering fossil fuel reserves, and both state and community rights must be rebalanced to make no-go zones truly binding. In this way, “forever forests” can become territories of life — not assets of accumulation.

Ultimately, no financial mechanism will save the world’s forests unless it also saves the people who depend on them, and the carbon that must remain buried beneath.

The path to a livable planet runs not through markets or bonds, but through justice: recognition of forest community stewardship and a global commitment to keep fossil fuels in the ground.

Philippe Le Billon receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

– ref. COP30: Governments must empower forest communities to keep fossil fuels underground – https://theconversation.com/cop30-governments-must-empower-forest-communities-to-keep-fossil-fuels-underground-269686

November 13, 2025

Ukraine: energy corruption scandal threatens to derail Zelensky’s government and undermine its war effort

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

The latest corruption scandal that has engulfed Ukraine could not have come at a worse time or in a more delicate sector of the economy for the increasingly embattled government of Volodymyr Zelensky.

Ukraine’s military is now clearly on the back foot in several key sectors of the frontline. Meanwhile, Russia’s campaign to devastate Ukraine’s energy sector is putting enormous pressure on the country’s infrastructure and bringing increasing hardship for ordinary Ukrainians as winter approaches.

The fact that the latest corruption scandal involves the energy sector is, therefore, particularly damaging to the government and public morale.

Ukraine’s independent anti-corruption agencies have just released the findings of Operation Midas, a 15-month investigation into Energoatom, which is the state-owned operator of all of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. With a total capacity of almost 14,000 megawatts, Energoatom is the largest electricity producer in Ukraine.

Anti-corruption investigators allege a large kickback scheme of between 10% and 15% of the value of supplier contracts, amounting to about US$100 million (£76 million). Raids were carried out in 70 locations around the country on November 10. Seven people have been charged and five are in custody.

The mastermind of the corrupt scheme is alleged to be Timur Mindich a businessman and film producer, who hastily fled Ukraine a day before the raids. What makes this very dangerous for Zelensky is that Mindich is the co-owner, with the Ukrainian president, of Kvartal 95 Studio. Kvartal is the media platform on which Zelensky established his pre-presidential fame as a comedian.

Old friends and business partners: Volodymyr Zelensky and Timur Mindich.
Harry Boone/X

The scandal, therefore, once again involves very close allies of the president. It risks tainting by association. But it also leaves him open to questions of whether he could havacting sooner about the allegations.

But the way in which this latest scandal unfolded also indicates that it is the manifestation of a much deeper conflict going on behind the scenes between elite groups vying for control of the last valuable state asset – the energy sector.

Smear campaigns

It’s the latest in a chain of events that goes back to the summer months, when Zelensky’s Servant of the People parliamentary faction tried to terminate the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies. Mass protests by young Ukrainians forced the government to backtrack on the decision.

At this point, rumours about the existence of secretly taped conversations involving Mindich began to circulate in the Ukrainian media. However, no details of the content of the conversations were released at time, leaving any allegations of corruption to the realm of speculation.

As the government came under increasing pressure after massive Russian air strikes against the energy sector on October 10 which left Ukraine’s population without electricity for almost an entire day, mud-slinging began in earnest. Attention focused on Volodymyr Kudrytsky, the former head of Ukrenergo, the main operator of Ukraine’s electricity grid.

Kudrytsky, an outspoken figure in Ukraine’s pro-western and anti-corruption civil society, was detained on October 28 on suspicion of fraud relating to his alleged involvement in a 2018 plot to embezzle the equivalent of $1.6 million from state funds. The investigation against him was conducted by State Audit Service of Ukraine and State Bureau of Investigation, which are directly subordinate to Zelensky.

He has robustly defended his record against what he alleged were politically motivated attacks designed to shift the blame for the devastation of Ukraine’s energy grid by Russia’s air campaign away from the government.

While Kudrytsky has been released on bail, the case against him remains live.

Power struggle

Whatever their outcome in legal terms, the rumours circulating against Mindich and the attacks against Kudrytsky appear, for now at least, to be classic information campaigns aimed at assassinating reputations and damaging the people and agendas associated with them.

As they pit pro- and anti-Zelensky camps in Ukraine’s elites against each other, the latest corruption revelations reveal a power struggle over who controls the state’s most valuable assets and the levers of power in Ukraine. If Zelensky’s enemies cannot remove him from power, then his ability to rule can be severely constrained by targeting close allies like Mindich.

Another of Zelensky’s top advisers, justice minister (formerly energy minister) German Galushchenko has also been suspended as a result of Operation Midas.

This elite infighting, which is engulfing a sector that is critical to Ukraine’s ability to continue resisting Russia’s aggression, is astounding in its disregard of the existential crisis engulfing Ukraine. While its outcome, for now, is unclear, several important conclusions can already be drawn from it.

The return to a competitive political process with freedom of speech, media, and association, which was suspended as a result of the war, is vital. Fears of playing into the hands of Russian propaganda by revealing corruption in Ukraine simply enable the corrupt officials to further abuse their power and damage the country’s prospects of prevailing against Russia.

More direct involvement of the EU and the US is needed in fighting corruption in Ukraine. Corruption reduces funds allocated for the war. But it also fuels public pessimism in donor countries about the effectiveness of their continuing support.

This corruption has been hugely damaging for recruitment to the armed forces. A recent survey found that 71% of Ukrainians believe the level of corruption has increased since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Monthly desertion rates from the army now stand roughly at the level of two-thirds of new recruits. That’s 21,000 deserters compared to 30,000 sign-ups. It’s not sustainable for Ukraine’s defence efforts – and is part of the reason for some of the recent setbacks at the frontline.

This is no longer about the country’s reputation and its prospects of European integration. Cleaning up Ukrainian politics – and being seen to do so – is now as essential for Ukraine’s survival as shoring up its air and ground defences against Russia.

Tolerating corruption is a luxury that Ukraine can no longer afford if it wants to survive as an independent country.

Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

Tetyana Malyarenko receives funding from the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University.

– ref. Ukraine: energy corruption scandal threatens to derail Zelensky’s government and undermine its war effort – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-energy-corruption-scandal-threatens-to-derail-zelenskys-government-and-undermine-its-war-effort-269437

November 13, 2025

We studied the walking habits of young men in Cape Town and London – and debunked a myth

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Bradley Rink, Associate Professor of Human Geography, University of the Western Cape

Being mobile means people can get access to opportunities and take part in economic and social life. Mobility, in all its forms, is critical for cities to thrive.

Recent studies highlight what most African city dwellers already know: walking is the main way of getting around, and essential for daily life. This is true for people who live in low-income neighbourhoods across the world. When people lack money for taxi, bus or train fares, walking becomes the only option even if the distances are great.

Yet, most African cities and many low-income neighbourhoods globally lack spaces for walking that are safe and appropriate.

While researchers place a lot of emphasis on road traffic, public transport and infrastructure, little attention has been paid to the importance of walking as a daily mobility strategy for low-income communities.

Even less is known about the walking experiences of young men. There often seems to be an assumption they are free to travel wherever and whenever they choose, that they’re invulnerable. But what are the realities they face on the street, and what we can learn from them?

We’re a team of human geographers and anthropologists working in collaboration with an international non-governmental organisation and a group of 12 peer researchers who are walkers: six from Cape Town and six from London. Our study aimed to learn more about the experiences of men like this, aged 18-35, in low-income urban neighbourhoods in South Africa and the UK.

We wanted to better understand issues of access and opportunity for communities that rely on walking. We also wanted to explore the potential of community-based research for improving lives.

Our findings revealed what expected cultural and gender norms often mask: young men in these communities often walk with great fear and trepidation.

The study

Our focus on young men was influenced by findings from an earlier study of young women in Cape Town. That study emphasised the particular concerns women have for the safety of their male counterparts who had to walk back home after accompanying the women to transit points.

We not only set out to foreground the walking experiences of young men; we also wanted to do research differently and with maximum potential impact for those involved. Peer research provides living knowledge, and also a chance to make meaningful change in transforming policy and practice. Peer researchers are, after all, experts in their own lives.

Through a five-day workshop we trained peer researchers in research methods, ethics and data collection. We gained an understanding of their communities through shared mapping exercises. The young men then set out to collect data independently, using mobility diaries. Each of them also interviewed at least 10 other young men in their community.

Although their specific neighbourhoods aren’t named for ethical reasons, the study areas were two township neigbhourhoods in Cape Town and various boroughs in the east end of London. They were strikingly similar when it came to a sense of everyday dangers from high rates of crime, violence and deprivation.

What we found

Young men in our study helped to undermine this myth of male invulnerability. They revealed how fear shapes their daily walking experiences and has an impact on their lives. As one participant said:

I’ve been a victim of crime: at that time I felt useless, weak and vulnerable.

More than this, their stories revealed how they use various tactics and strategies to stay safe. They walk with trusted others. They pay attention to their appearance and avoid displaying things like mobile phones and jewellery. They adjust their routes depending on the weather, darkness and the presence of criminal gangs.

As one participant put it:

I walk in the afternoon to the bus (to get to a job in a distant neighbourhood). It takes 10 minutes. It’s not safe … If I see criminals I pretend I’m tying my shoelace.

Other peer researchers confirmed that even the simple act of appearing to tie a shoelace allows you to survey the street while not looking scared and protecting masculine dignity. If it looks dangerous, they said, you can pretend you’ve forgotten something and run back the way you’ve come.

Our findings illustrate the complexity of daily walks. While mediating danger on the streets and navigating the precarities of urban life, our peer researchers also reflected on the pleasures of walking. They sometimes found joy and relief in walking:

I get to breathe fresh air instead of just sitting in the house … thinking about being unemployed and stuff. I get to see people and be healed.

Encountering the city on foot has benefits for physical and mental health.

Why this matters

Safe, reliable mobility is essential for lives and livelihoods in the city. Our study identified ways that community stakeholders can support safe walking and therefore help with access to economic and social opportunities.

Lifting the veil on men’s vulnerabilities allows community members and policy makers to understand the challenges across the gender spectrum.

But our research also matters because of how we went about it. The potential for change comes in the form of ongoing stakeholder engagement. Findings from the research were presented by the peer researchers themselves to community stakeholders and local government officials, people who have the capacity to improve infrastructure and safety.

Sam Clark and Caroline Barber from Transaid UK and Bulelani Maskiti, an independent South African researcher, contributed to this article.

Bradley Rink receives funding from Volvo Research and Educational Foundations (VREF)

Gina Porter receives funding from Volvo Research and Educational Foundations (VREF)

– ref. We studied the walking habits of young men in Cape Town and London – and debunked a myth – https://theconversation.com/we-studied-the-walking-habits-of-young-men-in-cape-town-and-london-and-debunked-a-myth-268131

November 13, 2025

Black and Latino homeowners in Philly face discrimination when appraisers assess their properties

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Gregory Squires, Professor Emeritus of Sociology, George Washington University

Home appraisal bias contributes to racial wealth disparities and violates the Fair Housing Act.
Jeff Fusco/The Conversation U.S., CC BY-SA

For most families, owning a home is the primary way to accumulate wealth and transfer that wealth to future generations.

But in Philadelphia and other U.S. cities, studies have shown that if you live in a Black or Hispanic neighborhood, your home is more likely to be appraised below its market value when compared to homes in non-Hispanic white neighborhoods. This is called home appraisal bias.

An appraisal represents an expert opinion of the value of a home. It is determined by a licensed professional who applies industry standard rules and practices.

The appraisal is critical to securing a mortgage to purchase a home or to refinancing an existing mortgage. It can determine whether an applicant gets a mortgage and influence how much the mortgage costs. For example, if a borrower must take out a mortgage for more than 80% of a property’s value, they may be required to pay for private mortgage insurance in some cases. Getting the appraisal value right is key to ensuring that homebuyers and those seeking to refinance a mortgage can do so under fair and equal conditions.

We are two academics who study urban places and the people who live in them. Together, we have more than 80 years of experience working at federal civil rights agencies, teaching at research universities and consulting for the housing industry, city and state agencies, and nonprofits.

Most recently we have been working with Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker on a plan to reduce racial bias in home appraisals in Philly.

Fair Housing Act of 1968

In 1968, President Lyndon Johnson signed the Fair Housing Act, which made it unlawful to deny housing based on race, color, religion or national origin. Congress added sex in 1974 and handicap and familial status in 1988.

The Fair Housing Act was passed just seven days after the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and two months after the release of the Kerner Commission report. This federal report examined the causes of racial violence in the U.S. in the 1960s and concluded, “Our nation is moving toward two societies, one black, one white, separate and unequal.”

Passage of the Fair Housing Act did not end housing discrimination. But over the years, residential segregation has declined slowly, and the most egregious and overt discriminatory acts, such as cross burnings and blockbusting, rarely happen anymore.

In recent years, attention has focused on racial disparities in home valuation established by appraisals. This reflects, in part, some high-profile, public allegations of racial bias in appraising revealed through homeowners’ “whitewashing” of their homes.

Whitewashing describes how a Black homeowner who receives a low appraisal removes all signs that a Black person lives in a home, replaces family photos with photos of white people, and has a white friend at home when a second appraiser arrives, giving the impression that it is the home of a white family. Bias is revealed when the second appraisal produces a higher value than the first.

The fact that 94% of appraisers and assessors in the U.S. are white may be a contributing factor.

Appraisal discrimination is unfair, contributes to racial wealth disparities and violates the Fair Housing Act.

Home appraisal bias is a national issue

Multiple studies establish that homes in Black and brown neighborhoods across the U.S., all else equal, are valued less than comparable homes in white neighborhoods. Appraisal bias is just one factor in this, as are historical and contemporary redlining and real estate practices, individual choices and other factors.

One way to identify appraisal discrimination would be to compare how often appraisals are below agreed-upon sale prices in nonwhite neighborhoods compared to white neighborhoods. Our research has documented that appraisals themselves are sometimes biased representations of home values.

Nationally, the percentage of appraisals below the sale price is substantially greater in nonwhite neighborhoods than in white neighborhoods. There is no apparent reason that appraisals should be systematically higher or lower than sale prices in nonwhite or white neighborhoods.

It’s a Philly issue too

Appraisal bias also persists in Philadelphia, as we’ve demonstrated in our own analyses using the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s uniform appraisal dataset, or UAD.

The UAD is the only neighborhood-level source of information on home appraisal activity. However, the dataset reports less than half of census tracts in Philadelphia because the FHFA often suppresses data due to privacy concerns. In tracts with few transactions, reporting the data could identify individual homeowners.

Earlier this year, we employed a different approach using 2021-24 lending data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. HMDA is an annually released federal database containing detailed information on most mortgage applications in the U.S. The data includes race, mortgage characteristics, property value, location and other details.

We wanted to understand whether there was a pattern of denied applications for cash-out refinance mortgages where the lender’s single reason for denial was collateral, which is generally established by the appraisal. Cash-out refinance mortgages are loans that pay off the homeowner’s existing loan and allow that homeowner to additionally borrow some of the equity they have in their home.

Our study shows that it was substantially more frequent that collateral was the single reason for that denial in nonwhite neighborhoods and for nonwhite homeowners.

This was the case whether the homeowner was seeking a conventional mortgage or a mortgage insured by the Federal Housing Administration. FHA borrowers frequently have lower credit or a lower down payment than a conventional borrower and pay an insurance fee that compensates for the higher risk they represent.

These two Philadelphia-based studies used different methodologies to arrive at the same conclusion, which we shared in a September 2025 report for the nonprofit Reinvestment Fund, where one of us is a senior adviser. That conclusion is this: Whether you want to buy a home or access the stored wealth in the home you already own in Philadelphia, you are disadvantaged in the valuing of the real estate if you are a person of color or if the home is located in a mostly Black or Hispanic neighborhood.

Possible solutions

Remedies are available, but in the current political climate the burden is increasingly on local governments, nonprofit advocacy groups and industry actors rather than the federal government.

More transparency: The home appraisal industry is opaque. While the uniform appraisal dataset provides some insight into appraisal bias, much of its data is not public. Further, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has not included neighborhood-level appraisal data for Federal Housing Administration transactions.

A national database of appraisals, similar to the HMDA database for loan applications, would improve transparency and accountability. While the HMDA did not eliminate lending discrimination, it is a valuable tool to uncover and address discrimination.

Get informed: A fair appraisal ensures that homeowners have an independent, accurate, expert opinion of the value of their home. But homeowners must understand how that opinion was derived and how they can contest that opinion of value when appropriate. Some lenders now allow an owner to get a second opinion if the owner feels the appraised value is inaccurate.

Raise public awareness: Local officials can inform the public about the nuts and bolts of appraisals and outline what can be done when bias occurs. Philadelphia is taking steps. The city’s Home Appraisal Bias Program is working to increase diversity of local appraisers, enhance appraisal transparency and educate consumers.

File a complaint: HUD has substantially pulled back from combating appraisal bias, including disbanding the Biden-era PAVE Task Force, which was making progress on the issue. The Trump administration has further impaired enforcement of the Fair Housing Act through layoffs and the withdrawal of critical policies long found to be effective in fighting housing discrimination.

Nevertheless, those who believe they have been subjected to appraisal bias can file complaints with HUD or their state or local fair housing agencies. This will at least create a record of the frequency of the issue.

Given the reduced role of the federal government today, there is an extra burden on state and local civil rights agencies and nonprofits to ensure alleged violations are investigated and, when appropriate, prosecuted.

Read more of our stories about Philadelphia and Pennsylvania, or sign up for our Philadelphia newsletter on Substack.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Black and Latino homeowners in Philly face discrimination when appraisers assess their properties – https://theconversation.com/black-and-latino-homeowners-in-philly-face-discrimination-when-appraisers-assess-their-properties-268479

November 13, 2025

What’s a ‘black box’ warning? A pharmacologist explains how these labels protect patients

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By C. Michael White, Distinguished Professor of Pharmacy Practice, University of Connecticut

Black box warnings can influence whether or not clinicians decide to prescribe a drug. SDI Productions/E+ via Getty Images

A “black box” warning on a health product sounds pretty scary – maybe even more so when it’s suddenly being taken off the packaging.

Americans were reminded of this type of public health messaging on Nov. 10, 2025, when the Food and Drug Administration announced it is removing the “black box” warning from hormone replacement therapy for menopause.

But what are these warnings, anyway? What’s their history, and how do they affect a drug’s use?

I am a clinical pharmacologist and pharmacist studying drug prescribing, safety and effectiveness for over 25 years.

Black box warnings – or as the FDA officially calls them, boxed warnings – are a tool for alerting pharmacists and clinicians that the medication may have serious risks. These health care professionals are then expected to communicate those risks to consumers.

An official source of drug information

Black box warnings for particular medications appear on the product package inserts that the FDA requires pharmaceutical companies to create for each prescription drug.

Product package inserts provide official information about the drug to health care professionals. These pamphlets are attached to bulk containers of drugs purchased by pharmacies so that the pharmacist has the most updated official information on the product. The package inserts are also published in textbooks such as the Physician’s Desk Reference and on websites maintained by drug manufacturers.

The requirement for product package inserts came out of a consumer protection law passed in 1966, called the Fair Packaging and Labeling Act, which aimed to prevent unfair or deceptive packaging in products used by consumers.

The package insert carries a set of official information about the drug, provided by the manufacturer and regulated by the FDA. The insert must include who the drug is approved for, proper dosing and administration, and a description of the key clinical trial results that showed it was effective and safe.

It must also disclose any health risks that the drug poses – such as a boxed warning.

Flagging safety risks

The FDA has two categories for the health risks that medications could pose: precautions and warnings. Both are listed on the package insert.

Precautions warn clinicians of possible harm that could result in minor or moderate injury to patients. Warnings, on the other hand, alert them to the potential risk of dangerous adverse events that could result in serious injury or death. The most serious warnings for a drug are called boxed warnings. The text of those warnings is enclosed by a black box on the insert so they will not be missed by clinicians.

According to a 2022 study, more than 400 medications currently carry black box warnings.

The FDA announced it was removing the black box warning from hormone therapy for menopause.

Antidepressants are one example. While such drugs can lessen the severity of depression symptoms, researchers have found that during the first few weeks of taking them, patients have an increased risk of suicide – particularly children and young adults. The FDA first issued a black box warning about the drugs’ use in children and adolescents in 2004 and expanded the warning to young adults in 2007.

Another example is clozapine, a drug used to suppress delusions experienced by people with schizophrenia. Although the drug is very effective, the FDA first gave it a black box warning when it was reintroduced to the market in 1989 because it can stop the production of white blood cells, potentially leading to life-threatening infections.

Hormone replacement therapy for menopause got its black box warning in 2003 after a clinical trial called the Women’s Health Initiative pointed to an increased risk of breast cancer without a reduced risk of heart disease in women who used it.

In subsequent years, reanalyses of the Women’s Health Initiative results, as well as data from other studies, have shown that the therapy is safe in women ages 50 to 60. Newer, safer formulations of estrogen and progestin have also emerged. These factors prompted the FDA to remove the warnings in November 2025, saying the therapy doesn’t pose significant risks.

Medical and legal realities

Black box warnings can influence clinicians’ choice of whether or not to prescribe a particular drug. For example, since other drugs for schizophrenia do not carry the serious risks that clozapine does, clinicians usually reserve that medicine for people who could not use those other drugs.

The black box warnings can also play a role in malpractice cases. In some states, package inserts and any warnings they contain can be used to establish a standard of care, leaving clinicians who deviate from them liable for damages. In other states, the warnings they list can be used to support findings of negligence.

For instance, the black box warning on the insert of the drug thalidomide states it can cause birth defects. It instructs clinicians to obtain a
a negative pregnancy test before use and ensure the patient is not able to get pregnant or is taking precautions to avoid pregnancy before prescribing. Failure to do so could make the clinician liable if the person taking the drug bears a child with birth defects.

Product package inserts are living documents. As new information becomes available, the FDA may find a medication’s risk is untenable and request the drug be removed from the market. Or it may decide to remove the boxed warning from the drug if new data shows the drug is less dangerous than previously thought.

C. Michael White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What’s a ‘black box’ warning? A pharmacologist explains how these labels protect patients – https://theconversation.com/whats-a-black-box-warning-a-pharmacologist-explains-how-these-labels-protect-patients-269470

November 13, 2025

Why Africa’s mineral-rich countries are not reaping the rewards of their wealth

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Bonnie Campbell, Professeure émérite en économie politique. Département de science politique de l’Université du Québec à Montréal., Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

Gold mining operations recently restarted at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex in western Mali after being shut down for several months. In January, the Malian government started blocking exports from the mine owned by Canada-based Barrick Mining (formerly called Barrick Gold).

The government blocked exports and took control of three tonnes of bullion following a dispute with Barrick Mining over alleged unpaid taxes.

This particular case is too complex to be discussed here. But disputes over revenue distribution raise important questions about how mineral-rich countries can benefit from their natural resources.

According to the International Monetary Fund, tax avoidance by multinational mining companies costs African countries between US$470 million and US$730 million per year in tax income.

Generating government revenue through natural resource taxation is critically important for sub-Saharan African countries seeking to improve infrastructure, health services and meet social development goals.

A variety of reasons explain why mineral-rich countries in sub-Saharan Africa are not profiting appropriately from their mineral wealth.

Power imbalances, unfavourable revenues

The Intergovernmental Forum on Mining and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have identified different obstacles to mining revenue collection including faulty legislation, abusive transfer pricing and other artificial profit-shifting.

In addition, fiscal incentives commonly provided to attract mining investment, such as significantly lowering tax and royalty rates, rarely prove to be worth the loss in government revenue.

These excessive concessions to foreign mining companies have led to widespread discontent, poverty and underdevelopment in Africa, despite abundant mineral wealth. This situation has been condemned by leaders across the continent.

In response, the African Union’s African Mining Vision and the policies it has inspired, notably the reform of mining codes, are attempts to ensure a more lasting contribution of the continent’s mineral resources.

Yet the power imbalances between foreign companies and African governments remain very much in place and shape negotiations around mining codes, contracts and practices.

While situations vary from country to country, sector to sector and site to site, research has sought to identify key obstacles to increased State mining revenue.

The unequal influence in negotiations that favours mining companies leads to numerous irregularities. Examples include prolonging stability clauses despite regulatory reforms and prioritizing mining contracts over broader national regulatory frameworks.

At the international level, African states are hindered from implementing policies that benefit local communities due to international trade regime practices, tariff import privileges and bilateral conventions that act as powerful deterrents.

Mali’s mining code

In Mali, the mining sector is a key part of the economy. In 2022, the sector contributed 9.2 per cent of GDP, 76.5 per cent of export revenue and 34.8 per cent of state revenue.

As is the case elsewhere on the continent, new Malian mining legislation aims to help rectify the legacy of environmental damage and disappointing mining revenue. Mali’s 2023 mining code reflects reforms to improve national benefits from the sector similar to measures in Tanzania, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Such reforms included increased state ownership requirements (typically 10-30 per cent), higher royalty and tax rates, local content and employment requirements, greater environmental and social responsibility provisions and enhanced community development obligations.

The 2023 code aims to strengthen Mali’s sovereignty over its resources and bring about a more equitable distribution of the benefits.

The fiscal regime has been reformed so that, among other measures, certain tax exemptions that mining companies received were abolished. Similarly, the new code puts an end to the fiscal concession of 25 per cent for a period of 15 years permitted by former codes. The new code introduces a royalty on production of 10 per cent for that exceeding the quantity projected.

In addition, several funds were created to respond to the needs of the sector and favour social inclusion.

Another important innovation is the law concerning local content in the mining sector. This law aims to encourage the participation of national enterprises and workers in the mining sector.

As occurs in other mineral-rich countries, Mali has faced strong pushback, particularly from the largest and most powerful companies. This has led to an escalation of conflict rather than negotiated solutions.

Significantly, several companies have reached agreements with the Malian government, such as Robex Resources. The U.K.-based Endeavour Mining has negotiated terms with the government to operate under the new mining code.

Two additional gold producers have also signed agreements to operate under the new mining code: Faboula Gold and Bagama Mining.

These projects, while less capital-intensive than others, illustrate the possibility of successful initiatives under the new code. They also provide important employment opportunities in rural areas.

Greater resource sovereignty

Some industry analysts have criticized mineral-rich countries for adopting a “resource nationalism” approach. However, research shows that well-managed, transparent and stable mining revenue in Mali and Senegal could help improve access to health care and social services.

Exercising greater sovereignty over natural resources to ensure the well-being of a country’s population might better be commended as responsible resource nationalism.

There are serious military and security threats facing Mali and its neighbours. By providing revenue and employment, the mining industry can play a key role in addressing these insecurities.

This role involves respecting national regulations and paying a fair share of tax revenue. Ultimately, the industry’s profitability is very much tied to the social stability of the country and the health, social and economic welfare of its people.

Bonnie Campbell has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the International Development Research Centre of Canada.

Moussa Doumbo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why Africa’s mineral-rich countries are not reaping the rewards of their wealth – https://theconversation.com/why-africas-mineral-rich-countries-are-not-reaping-the-rewards-of-their-wealth-262424

November 13, 2025

The path to responsible mining in northern Ontario starts with Indigenous consent

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Tamara Krawchenko, Associate Professor, School of Public Administration, University of Victoria

Canada and Ontario are accelerating efforts to attract global investment and speed up approvals for new mining projects.

Ontario’s government has introduced new policies aimed at attracting investors and accelerate project timelines. Central to this strategy are laws like Bill 5, the Protect Ontario by Unleashing our Economy Act, and Bill 71, the Building More Mines Act.

The surge in global demand for “critical minerals” such as nickel, lithium and cobalt — essential inputs for electric vehicles and clean energy technologies — has positioned mining as a cornerstone of energy transition strategies. Northern Ontario, endowed with vast mineral resources, has become a focal point in Canada’s emerging green economy.

Yet this potential is shadowed by the legacy of “sacrifice zones” — regions where the environmental and social costs of mining have fallen heavily on Anishinaabe, Cree and Oji-Cree Nations and communities, while most benefits have accrued elsewhere.

How governments advance Indigenous inclusion, share prosperity with First Nations and create greater project certainty will depend on principles of respectful partnership, shared rewards and risks and long-term stewardship.

Environmental and Indigenous rights concerns

Canada’s accelerated approach to mining raises major concerns for both the environment and Indigenous rights.

The Hudson Bay Lowlands, for example, are one of the world’s largest carbon sinks and disturbances there could release vast amounts of greenhouse gases. Building mines, roads and energy lines in these sensitive ecosystems threatens biodiversity, water systems and the traditional livelihoods of First Nations communities.

Ontario’s digitized “claim-staking” system allows companies to register mining claims instantly without prior consultation. In some cases, exploration occurs on lands still under legal negotiation or where Indigenous title is unresolved.

Many First Nations have voiced frustration that the current consultation process is too brief and procedural to meet constitutional or treaty obligations.

The Chiefs of Ontario have called for a pause on new mining claims and deeper reforms to ensure that any future developments align with Indigenous consent.

A rights-based approach to mining

A recent OECD report outlines both the opportunities and challenges that rising mineral demand brings to First Nations and local communities in Northern Ontario. The report also lays out a practical road map for a more sustainable mining sector.

As contributing authors, we accompanied the OECD process of extensive interviews and roundtables with First Nations leaders, mining companies, policymakers and community organizations across the region.

We sought to understand on-the-ground realities and to identify ways to align economic development with Indigenous rights and community well-being.

From the recommendations of the report, we interpret three key actions for a rights-based territorial development approach that promotes responsible mining while upholding Indigenous rights.

3 key actions

1. Investing in communities

Many First Nations need major investments in water, housing, infrastructure, health and social supports to meet basic human rights. Without addressing these foundational needs, asymmetrical development will only deepen inequalities between national interests and wealth creation. It is very hard to think about mining development when basic needs are not being met.

2. Gaining Indigenous consent

Following the lead of British Columbia and the Northwest Territories in legally committing to implement UNDRIP (the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples), Ontario should build on existing efforts to provide a formal mechanism for guiding companies towards securing free, prior and informed consent and align provincial legislation with UNDRIP.

Indigenous rights-holders must be properly informed, meaningfully consulted and give their consent before any projects go forward. This consent should apply throughout the entire project life cycle, from exploration and feasibility studies to mine closure and land restoration.

This should also pertain to “brownfield” sites (existing mines) and patented lands, some of which are currently exempt from consultation under Ontario’s Mining Act. While major changes to a mine site that could negatively affect Indigenous rights will trigger the duty to consult, smaller changes may not and this is decided on a case-by-case basis. This can create grey areas and a lack of legal levers for communities to renegotiate when amendments are made to mining projects.

3. Capital, equity ownership and royalty frameworks

To move beyond one-time compensation agreements, some First Nations may be interested in securing equity stakes in mining ventures, sharing both risks and rewards through access to capital.

When First Nations participate as co-investors, it signifies that the project has undergone a free, prior and informed consent processes, meaning potential legal, reputational and social risks — including community opposition or court challenges — are significantly minimized.

Indigenous co-investment typically requires the establishment of strong governance mechanisms, including clear arrangements for shared decision-making, benefit sharing, formal agreement-creation and high environmental and social standards, all of which enhance a project’s reputation for responsible operation.

Direct resource revenue-sharing agreements are another option. The Ontario government has already signed such agreements with some First Nations and Tribal Councils. This ensures equity among participating First Nations.

Building a stronger, more prosperous Ontario

The future of mining in northern Ontario sits at a crossroads. Governments want to move quickly to capitalize on mineral demand, but unless this growth is tied to consent (real engagement), equity and stewardship, it risks reproducing past injustices. This is unacceptable risk to all parties.

True prosperity means development that upholds the rights of First Nations, protects their ecosystems and ensures communities share in the benefits.

If implemented, these priorities — consent, ownership and stewardship — could transform the region from a site of resource extraction into a model of partnership and resilience. It means a different kind of mining anchored in respect and sustainability.

The article was co-authored by Andres Sanabria, Coordinator of the OECD Mining Regions and Cities Initiative and Bridget Donovan, Policy Analyst at the OECD.

Tamara Krawchenko consults for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and was a contributing author to the Mining Regions and Cities in Northern Ontario, Canada study. She is a Visiting Scholar with the Institue for Research on Public Policy and a board member of Ecotrust Canada.

Darren Godwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The path to responsible mining in northern Ontario starts with Indigenous consent – https://theconversation.com/the-path-to-responsible-mining-in-northern-ontario-starts-with-indigenous-consent-267935