Going after ‘antifa’: Donald Trump’s plans to crush his political foes

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in US politics and international security, University of Portsmouth

Following the shooting of his political ally, the far-right activist and commentator Charlie Kirk, on September 10, Donald Trump has signalled his intention to pursue his political enemies – what he refers to as the “radical left”. In the days following Kirk’s assassination, the US president took to social media to announce he was planning on designating the antifa movement a terrorist organisation.

Trump TruthSocial post condemining antifa.
Trump announces his plan to designate ‘antifa’ as a terrorist organisation.
TruthSocial

Calling antifa a “SICK, DANGEROUS, RADICAL LEFT DISASTER”, Trump also threatened to investigate any organisations funding antifa. And when Kirk’s widow, Erika, said she forgave the person who has been arrested for the murder, Trump said he did not. “I hate my opponent,” he told people at a memorial event for Kirk at the weekend.

But Trump’s decision to target his ideological opponents faces significant legal and constitutional issues.

It’s not the first time that Trump has threatened such action. In 2020, he threatened the same thing on social media in response to the widespread protests following the death of George Floyd. But just as is the case in the present day, there was no legal process to designate any domestic group as a terrorist organisation.

Trump also appears to have misunderstood what antifa is. He represents it as a defined organisation, when it is more like a broad ideology. Mark Bray, a historian at Rutgers University, New Jersey, described the movement as similar to feminism. “There are feminist groups, but feminism itself is not a group. There are antifa groups, but antifa itself is not a group,” he said.

Antifa is shorthand for “anti-fascist”. It has no centralised leadership or defined structure. Despite being able to mobilise to oppose far-right groups with protests and counter-demonstrations, the movement’s dispersed character hampers efforts to classify it as an organisation of any formal kind.

Plans to use Rico laws

One of the laws Trump has suggested that US attorney-general Pam Bondi could use against antifa is the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (Rico) Act of 1970. This was passed by Richard Nixon to tackle organised crime, but its application has since been extended to investigate various other organisations and individuals. This has included Donald Trump himself, over alleged irregularities in Georgia during the 2020 presidential election.

Although it would be challenging, the Trump administration might try to use Rico laws to break up antifa’s network if the movement is classified as a terrorist organisation. Authorities could argue that specific individuals are engaged in a series of racketeering activities, including any acts of violence or other criminal behaviour linked to the movement. But this method would undoubtedly face considerable legal challenges.

If the US government finds a way to define antifa as a group and identify people as members – it’s not clear at the moment whether this might be possible – it would then be possible to seek out and attempt to prosecute anyone who facilitates their activities or gives them funds. But as David Schanzer, director of the Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland Security at Duke University, North Carolina, told the BBC this week: “Under the First Amendment, no one can be punished for joining a group or giving money to a group.”

Nevertheless, antifa activists may be subject to increased surveillance if the movement is proscribed. Such actions would mirror the FBI’s extra-legal counterintelligence programme (Cointelpro) that targeted the new left in America during the 1960s. Civil rights groups and Democrats would inevitably raise serious questions concerning executive overreach and possible violations of civil liberties.

Power grab

Labelling antifa as a terrorist group would allow the federal government to circumvent state-controlled law enforcement. It may seek to do so especially in Democrat states and cities where authorities might be hesitant to act against liberal or left-wing demonstrators. Federal agencies such as the FBI and Department of Homeland Security might be drafted in to lead investigations and prosecutions, superseding state authorities.

This consolidation of power would create further legal and political difficulties. While the Posse Comitatus Act is supposed to bar the use of federal military personnel for domestic law enforcement, there are exceptions. If the president invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 it would give him the power to deploy troops to restore order.

Antifa’s classification as a terrorist organisation could have profound effects on the first amendment rights of large numbers of law-abiding US citizens. It would be a serious danger to American democracy if US citizens were unable to voice their protest and exercise their right to free speech because of this classification.

A decision to vilify anti-establishment rhetoric would set a dangerous precedent for silencing dissent and infringing fundamental constitutional rights in the US during the 21st century.

The administration’s position on domestic extremism has changed significantly with Trump’s plan to label antifa as a terrorist organisation. The political consequences are far-reaching, potentially setting important precedents for the balance between civil liberties and US national security. This could shift the focus more toward security and potentially harm individual freedoms.

But it’s unlikely that the Trump administration will be deterred by any constitutional considerations. This is an executive branch that has acted first and sought justification through the courts. There will be a lengthy legal process if Trump follows through on this. But by the time courts make their final decision, the damage will already have been done to the US political system.

The Conversation

Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Going after ‘antifa’: Donald Trump’s plans to crush his political foes – https://theconversation.com/going-after-antifa-donald-trumps-plans-to-crush-his-political-foes-265686

New York Times v Sullivan: the 60-year old Supreme Court judgment that press freedom depends on in Trump era

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emma Long, Associate Professor of American History and Politics, University of East Anglia

Donald Trump is attempting to sue the New York Times. In a lawsuit filed on September 15 the US president charged that the paper, two Times journalists and also the publisher Penguin Random House committed libel and defamation against him in series of articles and a book discussing his business experience and time on The Apprentice TV show.

Trump claims the publications were designed to damage his business reputation, sabotage his candidacy in the 2024 election, and interfere with the election. According to the lawsuit, they were published in “bad faith, out of hatred and ill-will directed towards President Trump without any regard for the truth”.

A federal judge threw out the lawsuit on September 19, but did so on a legal technicality without addressing the content of the allegations. Trump’s lawyers have said they will refile so the issues involved remain active.

Trump’s lawsuit is governed by a 1964 Supreme Court ruling, New York Times v. Sullivan. One of the most celebrated of cases handed down by the court during the era known as the rights revolution, the ruling has provided the press in the US with one of the most protected spaces in the world in which to operate.




Read more:
The case that saved the press – and why Trump wants it gone


The Sullivan case

On March 29 1960, the New York Times published an advertisement funded by northern supporters of Martin Luther King. Headlined Heed Their Rising Voices, it described a number of actions the city government of Montgomery, Alabama had taken to thwart the civil rights movement’s anti-segregation protests and to punish those involved. The city’s police commissioner, L.B. Sullivan, sued the paper for defaming him, even though he was not mentioned by name.

His case rested on the fact there were a small number of factual inaccuracies in the advertisement and that it undermined his professional reputation. A southern jury, upholding Sullivan’s claim, awarded him damages of US$500,000 (£371,000) – roughly equivalent to US$5 million today.

Screenshot of New York Times article.
The 1960 New York Times article which prompted the court case.
New York Times

Dismissing Sullivan’s claim, a unanimous Supreme Court established the key test that has governed US press freedom regarding public officials ever since. The “actual malice” test requires evidence that information was published “with knowledge that it was false or with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not”.

This means that by themselves, factual inaccuracies are not sufficient to make a case. And since most journalists and commentators seek to be diligent about the material they publish, the ruling has historically created an extremely high bar for litigants. This has granted the media in the US freedoms that extend well beyond those in many other nations.

In legal terms, then, Trump’s case is highly likely to fail.

Wider context

Sullivan also has important things to say in a country currently embroiled in debates about the scope of free political speech and press commentary.

Under pressure from Trump, broadcaster CBS cancelled The Late Show in July, hosted by frequent Trump critic Stephen Colbert, while ABC has now suspended Jimmy Kimmel’s late night show. The latter move followed a furore over comments the host made about Trump’s reaction to the death of far right conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

The debates have also been driven by Trump’s history of lawsuits against those who disagree with him – including, most recently, the Wall Street Journal, and also against ABC and CBS over issues separate to the rows over their talkshow hosts. He has also launched an investigation into former special prosecutor Jack Smith and taken action to put pressure on law firms representing Trump critics as well as against Harvard University, among others.

In 1964, the Supreme Court understood the importance of the context in which the case had been brought, namely the civil rights movement. In the 1960s, libel suits were used by southern states to attempt to control news coverage of civil rights demonstrations. Officials knew that white southern juries would not find in favour of northern newspapers sympathetic to desegregation.

When the Supreme Court considered its judgment in Sullivan, the New York Times was facing 11 other libel suits in Alabama alone with a total of more than US$5 million at stake. CBS was defending five libel suits in southern states with a total cost of almost $2 million.

Fearful of unfavourable verdicts and monetary damages that risked bankruptcy, some media outlets limited or stopped outright coverage of civil rights protests, just as southern segregationists wanted. This was what the court called a “chilling effect … on First Amendment freedoms”. Fear of consequences can limit people’s willingness to speak out, and self-censorship takes the place of official regulation.

In such a context of intimidation, warned the court, “the pall of fear and timidity imposed upon those who would give voice to public criticism is an atmosphere in which the first amendment freedoms cannot survive”. Americans today of all political persuasions would be wise to pay attention. Good, effective political debate can only happen when participants do not fear or risk retaliation for critical commentary.

Politics was also no place for the thin-skinned, warned the justices in 1964. The commitment to first amendment freedoms meant debate “should be uninhibited, robust, and wide-open, and […] it may well include vehement, caustic, and sometimes unpleasantly sharp attacks on government and public officials”. A public official, wrote Justice Arthur Goldberg in concurrence, “must expect that his official acts will be commented upon and criticised”.

While unlikely that they anticipated the type of vitriol increasingly familiar to us in the age of social media, the principle nevertheless remains: criticism of job performance is inherent in public roles. If you don’t like it, don’t get involved, and certainly don’t use the law of libel and defamation to seek redress for hurt feelings.

In its Sullivan judgment, the Supreme Court understood the dangers to free speech in a time of polarised debate. Its ruling contains important warnings for Americans that extend well beyond the latest Trump lawsuit.

The Conversation

Emma Long does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. New York Times v Sullivan: the 60-year old Supreme Court judgment that press freedom depends on in Trump era – https://theconversation.com/new-york-times-v-sullivan-the-60-year-old-supreme-court-judgment-that-press-freedom-depends-on-in-trump-era-265598

Major theories of consciousness may have been focusing on the wrong part of the brain

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Peter Coppola, Visiting Researcher, University of Cambridge

Where does consciousness come from? sun ok/Shutterstock

What gives rise to human consciousness? Are some parts of the brain more important than others? Scientists began tackling these questions in more depth about 35 years ago. Researchers have made progress, but the mystery of consciousness remains very much alive.

In a recently published article, I reviewed over 100 years of neuroscience research to see if some brain regions are more important than others for consciousness. What I found suggests scientists who study consciousness may have been undervaluing the most ancient regions of human brains.

Consciousness is usually defined by neuroscientists as the ability to have subjective experience, such as the experience of tasting an apple or of seeing the redness of its skin.

The leading theories of consciousness suggest that the outer layer of the human brain, called the cortex (in blue in figure 1), is fundamental to consciousness. This is mostly composed of the neocortex, which is newer in our evolutionary history.

Coloured diagram of the human brain.
Figure 1, the human brain (made with the assistance of AI).
Peter Coppola, CC BY-SA

The human subcortex (figure 1, brown/beige), underneath the neocortex, has not changed much in the last 500 million years. It is thought to be like electricity for a TV, necessary for consciousness, but not enough on its own.

There is another part of the brain that some neuroscientific theories of consciousness state is irrelevant for consciousness. This is the cerebellum, which is also older than the neocortex and looks like a little brain tucked in the back of the skull (figure 1, purple). Brain activity and brain networks are disrupted in unconsciousness (like in a coma). These changes can be seen in the cortex, subcortex and cerebellum.

What brain stimulation reveals

As part of my analysis I looked at studies showing what happens to consciousness when brain activity is changed, for example, by applying electrical currents or magnetic pulses to brain regions.

These experiments in humans and animals showed that altering activity in any of these three parts of the brain can alter consciousness. Changing the activity of the neocortex can change your sense of self, make you hallucinate, or affect your judgment.

Changing the subcortex may have extreme effects. We can induce depression, wake a monkey from anaesthesia or knock a mouse unconscious. Even stimulating the cerebellum, long considered irrelevant, can change your conscious sensory perception.

However, this research does not allow us to reach strong conclusions about where consciousness comes from, as stimulating one brain region may affect another region. Like unplugging the TV from the socket, we might be changing the conditions that support consciousness, but not the mechanisms of consciousness itself.

So I looked at some evidence from patients to see if it would help resolve this dilemma.

Damage from physical trauma or lack of oxygen to the brain can disrupt your experience. Injury to the neocortex may make you think your hand is not yours, fail to notice things on one side of your visual field, or become more impulsive.

People born without the cerebellum, or the front of their cortex, can still appear conscious and live quite normal lives. However, damaging the cerebellum later in life can trigger hallucinations or change your emotions completely.

Harm to the most ancient parts of our brain can directly cause unconsciousness (although some people recover) or death. However, like electricity for a TV, the subcortex may be just keeping the newer cortex “online”, which may be giving rise to consciousness. So I wanted to know whether, alternatively, there is evidence that the most ancient regions are sufficient for consciousness.

There are rare cases of children being born without most or all of their neocortex. According to medical textbooks, these people should be in a permanent vegetative state. However, there are reports that these people can feel upset, play, recognise people or show enjoyment of music. This suggests that they are having some sort of conscious experience.

These reports are striking evidence that suggests maybe the oldest parts of the brain are enough for basic consciousness. Or maybe, when you are born without a cortex, the older parts of the brain adapt to take on some of the roles of the newer parts of the brain.

There are some extreme experiments on animals that can help us reach a conclusion. Across mammals – from rats to cats to monkeys – surgically removing the neocortex leaves them still capable of an astonishing number of things. They can play, show emotions, groom themselves, parent their young and even learn. Surprisingly, even adult animals that underwent this surgery showed similar behaviour.

Altogether, the evidence challenges the view that the cortex is necessary for consciousness, as most major theories of consciousness suggest. It seems that the oldest parts of the brain are enough for some basic forms of consciousness.

The newer parts of the brain – as well as the cerebellum – seem to expand and refine your consciousness. This means we may have to review our theories of consciousness. In turn, this may influence patient care as well as how we think about animal rights. In fact, consciousness might be more common than we realised.

The Conversation

Peter Coppola does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Major theories of consciousness may have been focusing on the wrong part of the brain – https://theconversation.com/major-theories-of-consciousness-may-have-been-focusing-on-the-wrong-part-of-the-brain-264609

Kids in child care need healthy movement — and guidelines can improve their health

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sophie M Phillips, Post-Doctoral Associate, School of Occupational Therapy, Western University

Healthy movement behaviours support young children’s physical, mental and social development, and shape lifelong habits. These habits include engaging in physical activity, reducing sedentary screen time and obtaining sufficient sleep, including naps.

National 24-hour movement guidelines for children exist in Canada, with recommendations on physical activity, sedentary and screen time and sleep.

Nevertheless, only 13 percent of young children in Canada are meeting these guidelines.

Over one million young children (aged birth to five years) in Canada attend child care, spending most of their weekday waking hours in these settings. The number of children enrolled in child care is projected to rise with the rollout of the national Early Learning and Child-Care Plan, which comes with reduced fees for parents.

Child-care settings play an influential role in healthy movement behaviours and early childhood development, offering a unique and primary environment for supporting these behaviours — and a prime location to enact movement guidelines. Despite this, discrepancies remain in the quality of child care across Canada, and only the Northwest Territories and British Columbia specify a duration of required physical activity in their regulations.

We are researchers in the Child Health and Physical Activity Lab at Western University. Our work is concerned with supporting child-care educators in providing healthy movement behaviour environments for the children in their care.




Read more:
Kids’ physical activity before age 5 matters so much because of the developing brain


Movement guidelines

Guidelines help to establish clear expectations for the operation of child-care centres, promoting consistent and high-quality care. They also provide direction and objectives for educators, supporting their understanding of responsibilities and effective practices. Research shows that children in centres with formal physical activity guidelines are more active, demonstrating the value of guidelines in promoting healthy behaviours in child-care settings.

Using the best available evidence and expert consensus, with partners, we have created the first ever Canadian Best Practice Guidelines for Healthy Movement Behaviour in Childcare.

Partners including national child-care organizations (Canadian Child Care Federation, Childcare Resource and Research Unit, Association of Early Childhood Educators Ontario); public health agencies (City of Hamilton Public Health, Grey Bruce Public Health, Ottawa Public Health); ParticipACTION; Métis Nation of Ontario Early Learning and Child Care; as well as other research experts and child-care educators.

The guidelines were developed using a rigorous and inclusive approach. Key steps in the development process included:

  • Hosting a national consensus meeting with child-care organizations, public health agencies, research experts and child-care educators to collaboratively determine direction, content and priorities;

  • Drafting guidelines based on the consensus meeting discussions, along with key national and international documents in this area: the World Health Organization’s standards for healthy eating, physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep in early childhood education and care settings; British Columbia’s active play standard; a similar Australian active play standard and our lab’s previously developed PLAY policy.

  • Distributing a survey among attendees of the consensus meeting, as well as broader experts and advocates in the field, to gather feedback and assess agreement on the draft guidelines; and,

  • Finalizing the guidelines based on expert feedback via the survey responses.

The resulting guidelines serve as a series of best practices for educators, program directors and child-care centres to promote healthy movement behaviours.

From guidelines to practice

While guidelines are important, simply introducing new guidelines may not be enough to effectively improve healthy movement behaviours in child care.

Rather, combining guidelines with professional development designed to enhance educators’ skills and confidence to provide movement opportunities may help effectively put guidelines into practice.

However, importantly, few educators across Canada receive training relating to healthy movement; many also report limited knowledge and confidence in their ability to lead physical activity in their roles.

To address this issue, our lab created the TEACH e-Learning course, focused on promoting physical activity, limiting sedentary screen time and supporting the development of children’s fundamental movement skills within child-care centres.




Read more:
Kids’ physical activity in child care is essential — how an online course equips educators to lead the way


The course, developed with educators and movement experts, has been tested across Canada. It’s led to significant improvements in educators’ knowledge, confidence, sense of control and intentions related to movement behaviour practices with the young children in their care.

The course, alongside the guidelines, may better equip educators to confidently implement movement opportunities for children.

Guidelines in action

The next steps for the best practice guidelines will involve testing them, with the TEACH e-Learning course, in participating child-care centres across Ontario.

Piloting and testing is required to assess the guidelines’ acceptability and feasibility, which could lead to modifications. This will also help to determine whether this approach leads to changes in child-care environments, educator practices and children’s movement.

Once the final stages of testing and evaluating the guidelines are completed, they will be made publicly available and freely accessible on our lab’s website. Our vision is that Canada-wide child-care centres can benefit from this resource.

Child care in Canada is at a pivotal point with implementation of the 2021 Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care Plan. This draws on the earlier (2017) Multilateral Early Learning and Child Care Framework’s principles: affordability, accessibility, quality and inclusivity. This government initiative works towards ensuring all children have access to high-quality early learning and child care that supports their development and lifelong well-being.

The best-practice guidelines support this vision as a critical aspect of creating more active and health-promoting child-care centres to best support the health and development of young children across the country.

This article was co-authored with Emily Sussex, an undergraduate summer research intern in the Child Health and Physical Activity Lab.

The Conversation

Sophie M Phillips is supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR).

Trish Tucker receives funding from the Canada Foundation of Innovation, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, and the Children’s Health Research Institute.

ref. Kids in child care need healthy movement — and guidelines can improve their health – https://theconversation.com/kids-in-child-care-need-healthy-movement-and-guidelines-can-improve-their-health-264826

The Mediterranean: Both a graveyard and a bottomless money pit due to EU border policies

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Luna Vives, Associate Professor of Geography and Migration, Université de Montréal

Over the last decade, European governments have invested heavily to militarize their sea borders and outsource control responsibilities to partners in Africa and the Middle East.

But despite exponentially growing border budgets, people continue to take to the sea to reach EU territory, encountering violence and death. It’s time to admit that this repressive strategy has failed and to ask what should come next.

In late 2013, shortly after the Lampedusa shipwrecks off the coast of Italy that claimed more than 400 lives, the Italian government deployed Operation Mare Nostrum in the central Mediterranean. More than 150,000 people were rescued in the following 12 months.

But with a monthly cost of nine million euros, the operation was deemed economically unsustainable.

A year later, in November 2015, Frontex (the EU’s Border and Coast Guard) deployed Operation Triton to replace Mare Nostrum. The shift in names reflected a parallel shift in logic. Mare Nostrum (“our sea” in Latin, a nod to its role in sustaining life and bringing people together) was designed as a search-and-rescue mission. Meanwhile, Operation Triton (named after the mighty Greek god) focused on dismantling smuggling networks.

Turning point

The operation marked a turning point in the EU’s approach to migration control at sea. Frontex’s legitimacy, mandate and resources expanded dramatically post-2015. At the same time, European governments ramped up militarization and accelerated the delegation of border control to countries of departure.

In the central Mediterranean, Italy transferred 270 million euros to Libya’s ruling elites by 2021, mainly to bolster the country’s capacity to intercept migrant boats — often detected by Frontex drones surveilling the disputed Libyan rescue zone.

Meanwhile, the EU allocated 465 million euros from its Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (also created in 2015) to bolster migration and border control efforts by the Libyan government.

To this day, those “rescued” by Libyan forces are put in EU-funded detention centres where abuses are well documented and African migrants are allegedly sold as slaves.

Leaving migrants adrift

To the east, the EU agreed to pay Turkey nine billion euros between 2016 and 2023 to prevent people from Syria, Afghanistan and other war-torn countries from crossing into Greece in search of safety.

Boats crowded with entire families were — and are, to this day — pushed back to Turkey or left adrift under the very eyes of Frontex.

The same tactics soon spread westward. In 2019, Spain and the EU transferred more than 460 million euros to Morocco, plus additional funds for training and assets. Much of these transfers were, again, earmarked to develop the country’s capacity to patrol the seas and intercept migrant boats. More recently, the EU and Spain reached similar agreements with Mauritania worth over 500 million euros.

Drastic cuts to public spending have become mainstream in the EU, yet governments do not hesitate to foot hefty bills for border enforcement. Frontex’s projected budget for the 2021-2027 period is a whopping 11 billion euros. Additionally, an unknown amount is allocated to contracts with private companies that provide border technology.

The European Commission has proposed tripling this level of investment for its 2028-2034 Migration, Borders and Security initiative for a total investment of 81 billion euros.

Deaths at sea on the rise

All evidence suggests that these investments over the course of the last decade have failed to result in a safer sea or a more secure border.

The main objective of post-2015 maritime border policy was to dismantle criminal networks and prevent drownings. Instead, it has pushed people into the hands of professional smugglers, who have seen their profits soar as they exploit the lives of people on the move. Death has increased as a direct result of externalization.

The EU’s efforts to manage maritime migration also sought to stop illegal border crossings. Yet safe and legal pathways to the EU remain extremely scarce. People fleeing persecution who have the right to seek international protection and workers responding to the labour demands of an aging Europe continue to leave their communities in search of a hope only the sea offers.

Deaths at sea, violence against migrants and government investment are increasing simultaneously along the EU’s external maritime border. Over the last decade, the Mediterranean has become not only a graveyard, but also a bottomless money pit.

Looking ahead

What are the options? The most obvious is to create a functioning system for the selection and recruitment of workers and refugees at origin.

There is also room for more ambitious programs: a recent study found that most people in the EU would favour large-scale regularization for people without status already in the territory.

The United Nations-endorsed Global Compact for Migration designed to improve co-operation on global migration issues offers an even more daring road map for a strategy that taps into the potential of government-managed mobility.

There are many possibilities. Whatever the choice, once thing is clear: militarization and delegation of border control are not only expensive but also ineffective.

The Conversation

Luna Vives receives funding from SSHRC.

ref. The Mediterranean: Both a graveyard and a bottomless money pit due to EU border policies – https://theconversation.com/the-mediterranean-both-a-graveyard-and-a-bottomless-money-pit-due-to-eu-border-policies-264756

Economic sanctions need a rethink: evidence shows they raise food prices and hurt the poor most

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, Associate Professor of Agri-Food Trade and Policy, University of Guelph

Economic sanctions are widely viewed by academics and policymakers as a better alternative to military interventions to pressure governments to change objectionable policies. The idea is simple: instead of using weapons, squeeze the ruling elite economically until they change their behaviour.

The use of economic sanctions has been rising steadily. According to recent data from the Global Sanctions Database, the number of active sanctions grew by 31% in 2021 compared to 2020, and this upward trend continued through 2022 and 2023.

In Africa, several countries are currently subject to sanctions imposed by the United States, the United Nations or the European Union. These African states include the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Libya, Somalia, South Sudan and Zimbabwe. It’s not mere coincidence that most of these countries are listed in the World Food Programme’s hunger hotspots.

Sanctions could have unintended consequences for citizens and they are usually the ones who pay the price. When sanctions hit food systems, the impact can be devastating.

I study economic sanctions and their unintended adverse effects on developing countries. In a recent study conducted with my colleagues, we looked at how economic sanctions affected food security across 90 developing countries between 2000 and 2022. We wanted to explore potential links between sanctions and starvation amid growing global concerns about food insecurity .

We focused on two key indicators: food prices and undernourishment (meaning the share of people who don’t get enough calories to live a healthy life).

We measured food prices using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s food consumer price index. This index captures changes in the overall cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages typically purchased by households.

We also used the organisation’s prevalence of undernourishment computation. This is a key indicator under Sustainable Development Goal 2.1, which tracks progress toward ending hunger by 2030.

Our results are sobering. When sanctions are in place, food prices rise by about 1.2 percentage points compared to periods without sanctions. That might sound small, but in low-income countries where families spend half their income on food, even tiny increases make life harder. This is outside other external factors that may lead to price hikes, such as demand and supply patterns.

We also found that undernourishment goes up by 2 percentage points during sanction periods. For countries with millions already living on the edge of hunger, that’s a huge additional burden.

Why sanctions raise food insecurity

Sanctions ripple through economies in several ways, and food is often caught in the middle.

First, sanctions disrupt food imports. This is a critical concern for many developing countries that rely heavily on international markets to feed their populations. Between 2021 and 2023, Africa’s food imports totalled about US$97 billion. At the country level, for example, Ethiopia and Libya imported food worth US$3 billion, Sudan US$2.3 billion and the Democratic Republic of Congo US$1.2 billion. Sanctions can further restrict trade or increase transportation costs, making food both scarcer and more expensive.

Second, sanctions restrict access to essential agricultural inputs, such as fertilisers, pesticides and machinery. They also impede technology transfers. For instance, farmers in sub-Saharan Africa apply on average only 9kg of fertiliser per hectare of arable land, compared with 73kg in Latin America and 100kg in South Asia. These constraints reduce yields, increase production costs and make it harder for farmers to sustain output.

Third, sanctions shake financial systems, reduce people’s incomes and encourage hoarding. Households already on tight budgets are forced to cut back or switch to cheaper, less nutritious food.

Finally, sanctions often result in cuts to food assistance, as targeted countries lose access to international aid. For example, the recent suspension of US humanitarian assistance to Sudan forced the closure of 80% of the country’s emergency food kitchens. This impact is particularly severe given that some of the largest food donors, such as the United States and the European Union, are also among the most frequent users of sanctions.

The end result is simple: higher food prices, less food on the table and more hunger.

Not all sanctions are equal

We also found that the type of sanction matters.

Food as a weapon of warfare

The UN has warned for years against using food as a weapon. In 2018, Resolution 2417 explicitly condemned starvation as a tool of war or political pressure. Yet in practice, sanctions often restrict food, medicine and agricultural inputs even when “humanitarian exemptions” exist on paper.

Food insecurity in Africa is worsening. According to the World Health Organization, one in five people on the continent faces hunger, and the number of undernourished continues to grow. Sanctions add to this crisis.

And the moral dilemma is clear. The people most harmed – poor families, small farmers and children – are the ones least responsible for the behaviour that triggers sanctions.

While sanctions aim to punish regimes, they often punish ordinary people instead.

What needs to change

Sanctions are unlikely to disappear from global politics. But their design and humanitarian fallout need rethinking. There are three steps that could reduce the damage.

  • First, stronger humanitarian exemptions: make sure food, fertilisers and aid can move freely, without being blocked.

  • Second, track the impact of sanctions: international agencies like the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme should monitor how sanctions affect food systems and sound the alarm quickly.

  • Third, rethink the strategy: if sanctions end up fuelling hunger, instability and migration, they may do more harm than good in the long run.

If the world is serious about ending hunger by 2030, then the unintended consequences of sanctions cannot be ignored. Sanctions must be redesigned to protect the most vulnerable, otherwise they risk becoming not just a diplomatic tool, but a driver of food crises.

The Conversation

Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness (OMAFA). Kwaku also consults occasionally for the African Development Bank and the African Economic Research Consortium. He is the Executive Founder of the international think tank, Centre for Trade Analysis and Development (CeTAD Africa), based in Accra, Ghana.

ref. Economic sanctions need a rethink: evidence shows they raise food prices and hurt the poor most – https://theconversation.com/economic-sanctions-need-a-rethink-evidence-shows-they-raise-food-prices-and-hurt-the-poor-most-265296

How US-UK tech deal could yield significant benefits for the British public – expert Q&A

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Nicolau, Reader, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King’s College London

A £150 billion technology prosperity deal between the US and the UK was announced during President Donald Trump’s recent state visit to the UK.

But what kinds of technologies could it advance and how will these benefit the British public?

The Conversation asked Dr Dan Nicolau, who researches the interface of biology and computing, medical science and artificial intelligence (AI), at King’s College London for his thoughts.

AI has been the focus of this deal, but what other technologies could it benefit?

It’s a large amount of money, even for a wealthy medium-sized country like the UK. The big unknown is whether the various technical challenges associated with these technologies are overcome. It’s a big bet. It’s important if you want to see big economic benefits over the next ten years, say.

Those challenges include hallucinations by AI, where they invent information. The other thing relates to whether we have enough electricity. The government could build nuclear power plants. But that’s a big commitment over many years.

It’s also not totally clear that some of these tech advances directly translate to economic growth. There’s a quantum computing component to this deal and it’s directed towards developing lots of new medicinal drugs.

It’s not completely clear that if you had 100 new drugs for cancer that you would have the capacity to do the clinical trials to see that they worked. Maybe AI can accelerate the clinical trials but all of this is a big question mark. It’s a big bet that we can solve these problems in three to four years so we can get some economic growth over the next ten years.

Occasionally, there is some big breakthrough with quantum computing. Last year, Google announced that it had built a processor that drastically reduces the errors that quantum computers are prone to. But it’s not clear that running quantum computers at very cold temperatures or scaling or reducing the error rates translate into concrete breakthroughs. It might do, but it’s a little bit of a gamble. We don’t necessarily know if we’ll have answers in the next five years, but I think we’ll know a lot more in the next two.

Of the potential technologies, such as self-driving cars, drones and advanced chips, which could yield real benefits to people?

The question is about timescale. If I knew that I had a drug that could cure breast cancer or lung cancer, say. Even if I could prove that scientifically, it would be ten years before anyone could receive that drug. That’s because I’d have to publish the paper, it would have to be tested in mice, then clinical trials in humans.

In other areas, like for example, accounting, planning, contracts in law – all of that stuff, things can be done now. Some things can be done so much faster, it’s hard to imagine there wouldn’t be major economic impact in two years. Because AI tools are able to accelerate writing computer code, I think that’s an area where we’d see half of code, maybe, being automated in the next two years. Whether that’s good for people in coding jobs, let’s see.

With drones, there are a couple of challenges – they can’t operate alone so they need constant human supervision. We’re working on a project where we’re trying to upload a fly brain into a drone. The fly already knows how to fly so if you put its brain into a drone, the drone will be able to fly on its own. AI tools can really help with that and making cheap, genuinely autonomous drones and other things like mini submarines for example.

Also, drones can only operate for short periods of time. So if AI tools were able to help them recharge on their own or share tasks, they could go from something that’s used by hobbyists and the military to self-driving cars, drug delivery to people at home, all of that stuff becomes much much easier. It opens up infrastructure development for drones, like highways in the sky specifically for drones. The potential economic openings are huge, but each of them has a question mark over them.

How likely is it that some of these problems can be overcome, do you think?

The billion pound question. With the hallucination problem with AI, there is no viable solution on the horizon. There are lots of patches and some of them are quite clever.

We don’t understand the reason hallucinations are happening because it’s a science problem and there are hardly any scientists working on it. OpenAI has 100 scientists in that team and 1,000 engineers. Google is the same. The engineers can’t fix it because it’s not an engineering problem.

But it’s wider than that. LLMs will provide answers based on the data that they’ve been fed, but they’re missing common sense. Until these problems are solved they’re not going to be able to operate without loads of human oversight.

The Conversation

Dan Nicolau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How US-UK tech deal could yield significant benefits for the British public – expert Q&A – https://theconversation.com/how-us-uk-tech-deal-could-yield-significant-benefits-for-the-british-public-expert-qanda-265707

Montréal’s bike infrastructure hardly takes up any space from cars on city roads

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Daniel Romm, PhD Candidate, Geography, McGill University

Montréal is often hailed as the most “biking-friendly” city in North America. But our research has found that only 2.3 per cent of the city’s roadways are allocated to bike infrastructure, with car infrastructure occupying the remaining 97.7 per cent of road space.

We measured the street space allocated to transport infrastructures across Montréal, and contrasted it with traveller counts by travel mode. We found a wide discrepancy: comparing bike travellers with car travellers, bikes represent 4.9 per cent of trips to 95.1 per cent for cars.

Proposals for new or expanded bike lanes are often met with fierce backlash, in a phenomenon dubbed “bikelash,” with car drivers reluctant to lose any street space.

Yet our study finds that the current imbalance of spatial allocation is so overwhelmingly in favour of cars that it’s possible to make substantial improvements to bike infrastructure without significantly decreasing the space allocated per driver.

After all, a key advantage of bicycles is their incredible space-efficiency. Even if all the bike infrastructure space in the city were to double, the proportion of roadway given to cars would not fall below 90 per cent in any borough.

Sharing space

Our research, with a focus on improving communication about street space use, presents several measures of spatial allocation. The first, and simplest measure, is the space allocated to a specific transport infrastructure.

We found that 97.7 per cent of road space was dedicated to cars, and 2.3 per cent to bicycles. When we included sidewalks, 79.6 per cent of space was taken up by cars, 18.8 per cent to sidewalks and just 1.6 per cent for bikes.

Boroughs typically associated with cycling tended to have the greatest proportion of space given to bike infrastructure. In Montréal, Le Plateau-Mont-Royal, a neighbourhood viewed as trendy and bike-friendly, leads with 4.7 per cent.

Proportions allocated

The second measure we used in our research is space per traveller per mode of travel.

In Le Plateau Mont-Royal, where 21.9 per cent of trips started in that borough are by bicycle, we find that drivers are given 3.4 square metres per traveller, while bike travellers are allocated 1.5 square metres per traveller. This measure can be used to understand the relationship between infrastructure space and traveller counts.

We can also present this as the difference between the space allocated to bike infrastructure and the percentage of cyclists, which shows the discrepancy between space and travel across the city.

We developed the Equal Infrastructure Allocation (EIA) score to understand how the space per traveller for one mode compares to that for another. We used the EIA to compare the bike space per traveller to the space per traveller for those in cars: when the EIA is zero, car and bike travellers are allocated the same amount of space per traveller. When the EIA falls below zero, space is biased in favour of the automobile.

Using the EIA, we found that nine of Montréal’s 19 boroughs present spatial inequality in favour of cars; Le Plateau had the worst score at -0.55.

Doubling lanes

These measures can also be modelled for prospective changes to infrastructure, such as installing a new series of bike lanes, to better communicate about how such projects would affect the space.

In April 2024, Montréal’s BIXI bikeshare system had more than 11,000 bikes at over 900 stations. That’s a lot of bikes, but because they’re so space-efficient, the total space used by BIXI in Montréal is just 0.021 square kilometres. If BIXI were to double the number of bikes and stations, the amount of car space per traveller would decrease by 0.003 square metres.

We modelled what would happen if we were to double all the bike infrastructure in Montréal. We found that space would increase for bikes by 4.4 square metres per traveller; meanwhile, the space for someone travelling by car would decrease by 0.2 square metres.

In Le Plateau, drivers would lose just 0.15 square metres per traveller, and across the city, all but two boroughs would have positive EIA scores.

Maps of the effect of double all bike infrastructure space in Montréal on indicators, per borough.
Maps of the effect of doubling all bike infrastructure space in Montréal on indicators, per borough.
(D. Romm), CC BY

The current imbalance of space per traveller is so far in favour of cars that bike infrastructure projects improve the spatial picture for cyclists to a far greater extent than they worsen spatial allocation for drivers.

There are many well-established reasons for improving bike infrastructure and encouraging sustainable travel modes, including reducing reducing car fatalities.

Our findings corroborate this, finding a strong correlation between more bike infrastructure with decreased collision rates of cars with bikes.

Addressing opposition

Bike infrastructure projects often face intense, entrenched opposition. Our research provides tools for planners, policymakers, advocates and researchers to evaluate the current spatial picture, and to illustrate what the effects of alternative infrastructure would look like.

In our study of Montréal’s streets, we found that even with bike infrastructure improvements at a scale dramatically larger than anything proposed today, street space still remains biased in favour of cars.

The Conversation

Daniel Romm receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

ref. Montréal’s bike infrastructure hardly takes up any space from cars on city roads – https://theconversation.com/montreals-bike-infrastructure-hardly-takes-up-any-space-from-cars-on-city-roads-264675

Why are there so many protests? The US public is highly polarized, and that drives people to act

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Seth Warner, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Connecticut

Demonstrators march in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 6, 2025, to protest President Donald Trump’s use of federal law enforcement and National Guard troops in the nation’s capital. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Protests are becoming a routine part of public life in the United States. Since 2017, the number of nonviolent demonstrations has almost tripled, according to researchers with the nonprofit Crowd Counting Consortium.

And more people are joining than ever. The Black Lives Matter marches in 2020, after George Floyd was killed by police in Minneapolis, have been described as the largest nonviolent mobilization in U.S. history. The No Kings protests against Trump administration policies on June 14, 2025, were not far behind, with between 2 million and 4.8 million Americans protesting nationwide

What explains this surge of protest activity?

My research shows that polarization – the extent to which people dislike members of the opposing party – is a key driver. Today political polarization, as reflected by the ratings Americans give to the political parties, continues to be at its highest level since political scientists began using the measure in 1964.

I am an expert on political behavior, and my work analyzes how polarization shapes public life. In a recent article published in the journal Social Forces, I analyzed surveys conducted between 2014 and 2021 that asked Americans whether they had joined protests connected to Black Lives Matter, the climate movement or the tea party, the small-government movement that was active in the early 2010s.

These surveys, which include over 14,000 respondents, make it possible to see what separates people who protest from those who stay home.

The data points to a clear pattern: Anger at the other side motivates protest. People who rated the opposing party more negatively at one point in time were much more likely to take part in demonstrations in the years that followed.

Dislike for the other side spurs action

Importantly, I found that partisan animosity was a strong motivator for taking part in protests, even after taking people’s feelings about the issues into account. In the surveys, respondents were asked detailed questions about their views on the movements’ topics: for example, whether white Americans enjoyed advantages that Black Americans did not, or how serious a problem they thought climate change was and whether it was caused by human activity.

This allowed me to calculate how much protest activity was due to partisan anger and how much was simply a result of policy concerns. The results surprised me.

For the two higher-profile movements – Black Lives Matter and the tea party – partisan animosity mattered for protest a little more than half as much as people’s feelings about racial inequality or government spending, respectively. For climate protests, the effect of partisan anger was even greater. How people felt toward the “other side” mattered 2½ times more for their decision to protest than did concern about climate change.

This finding matters because it shows that polarization is not just about what people think. It also changes how they participate in politics.

What’s known as “affective polarization,” or the tendency for partisans to dislike and distrust each other, has already been shown to affect how people view U.S. political parties and their willingness to be friends across party lines. My study showed that this kind of division also increases people’s real-world engagement with politics.

When partisans feel threatened or angry at the opposing side, they don’t just complain about it. They organize, hit the streets and march.

More division, more marches

The polarized nature of protest also helps explain why some of today’s protests address multiple issues. The No Kings protests in June 2025, for instance, challenged a number of actions, including funding cuts to social programs, ICE deportations and the deployment of troops in Los Angeles.

But the “King” in question was always clear: President Donald Trump. Protesters may not have shared identical or extreme views on every issue, but they were united by their opposition to Trump.

Protest has long been an infrequent activity, but that’s changing. In the 2020 American National Election Study, nearly 1 in 10 Americans said they had joined a protest in the past year, the highest figure recorded on that survey since the question was first asked in 1976.

That level of participation makes protest one of the most visible ways Americans now engage in politics. As polarization remains high, there is every reason to expect it will continue – starting with another nationwide No Kings protest planned for Oct. 18, 2025.

The Conversation

The author has attended public events for social movements mentioned in this article. These experiences did not involve any funding, employment, or formal affiliation, and the analysis presented here is guided by academic standards of objectivity and evidence-based research.

ref. Why are there so many protests? The US public is highly polarized, and that drives people to act – https://theconversation.com/why-are-there-so-many-protests-the-us-public-is-highly-polarized-and-that-drives-people-to-act-263021

Cyber-attackers slammed the brakes on Jaguar Land Rover’s manufacturing – here’s why the UK government should step in

Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Bailey, Professor of Business Economics, University of Birmingham

P.Cartwright/Shutterstock

Car manufacturing at Jaguar Land Rover recently ground to a halt after a “catastrophic” cyber-attack.

Forced to shut down plants in the UK, Slovakia, Brazil, India and China, the disruption comes at a challenging time for the company. It had already postponed the launch of new models after the uptake of electric vehicles stalled. And Donald Trump’s tariffs have been a major cause of concern for the British car industry as a whole.

Profits at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) will undoubtedly take a hit, as they did at M&S and Co-op when they were the victims of cyber-attacks earlier this year.

Normally, JLR makes around 1,000 cars a day, with the average price of a new vehicle around £72,000. That means JLR is missing out on daily sales of some £72 million, and profits of £5 million a day.

The firm has now extended the shutdown to September 24 2025, by which time the loss of revenues will be around £1.7 billion and the hit to profits some £120 million. There are even fears that this could go on until November, and restarting production will be a complex business given the “build to order” nature of premium cars (when vehicles are only manufactured after a customer purchase is confirmed).

But the longer the shutdown goes on, the more likely it is that those customers will simply decide to go elsewhere. For the time being, spare parts can’t be ordered, cars can’t be serviced, and new car sales will stall, in what is usually a particularly busy month.

The firm’s brand image will take a battering too, to add to recent social media derision which has included an attack from Donald Trump and a much maligned brand relaunch last year which centred on the controversial design of its “Type OO” concept car.

There are also livelihoods at stake. The company’s supply chain, centred in the west Midlands region of the UK, supports as many as 200,000 jobs.

The longer the shutdown goes on the bigger the impact on the supply chain. Firms have already sent staff home, while others are running out of money. According to the Unite union, some supply chain workers have been told to apply for state benefits.

Road ahead

For its part, JLR has said that it can survive the shutdown but that its supply chain will need help – a call echoed by the union and some members of parliament.

And the UK government really needs to start thinking about a financial lifeline to keep the supply chain going. That could be in the form of a furlough scheme to keep workers in place or some sort of loan scheme for supply chain firms.

Both were used during COVID and thought to have safeguarded some 4 million jobs.

A glowing digital lock surrounded by streams of binary code.
Cyber-attacks have also hit M&S and Co-op in 2025.
AIBooth

Emergency support in response to shocks is common in other countries like Germany, and has been used in the UK car manufacturing supply chain before, after the MG Rover closure in 2005, and also after the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami which saw the interrupted flow of key components from Japan shut down production at Honda.

That support came via the regional development agency Advantage West Midlands (in the case of MG Rover) and later the Manufacturing Advisory Service (after the Japanese earthquake).

Both agencies have since been scrapped, underscoring the lack of any “place-based” or region-specific industrial policy capacity in England. That really needs to change.

The Department for Business and Trade and its new secretary of state Peter Kyle need to be doing more than just monitoring the situation. It needs to start thinking about how emergency support could be provided to the supply chain. A huge number of jobs depend on JLR getting up and running again – and quickly.

The Conversation

David Bailey receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council through the UK in a Changing Europe Programme.

ref. Cyber-attackers slammed the brakes on Jaguar Land Rover’s manufacturing – here’s why the UK government should step in – https://theconversation.com/cyber-attackers-slammed-the-brakes-on-jaguar-land-rovers-manufacturing-heres-why-the-uk-government-should-step-in-265126