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July 22, 2025

As Sri Lanka’s economy pivots from tourism, it’s well placed to benefit from global trade and geopolitical jostling – new research

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hemamali Tennakoon, Senior Lecturer in Strategy and Management, Brunel University of London

With its natural beauty, wildlife and culture, Sri Lanka is known as the “pearl of the Indian Ocean”, and attracts millions of tourists every year.

But my research suggests that the country might not be so reliant on tourism in the future, as it looks to become a major player in global maritime trade. The island’s numerous harbours and enviable location along international sea routes have led to major investment from China and the US, as they seek to extend their strategic influence in the region.

That investment is being welcomed after years of economic and political turmoil in Sri Lanka.

The Easter bombings of 2019 targeted Catholic churches and hotels, killing 269 people and devastating tourism. The same year, significant tax cuts slashed government revenue before COVID did serious damage to the economy.

In 2021, a ban on chemical fertilisers led to nationwide agricultural failure, while excessive borrowing and money printing triggered soaring inflation, which peaked at 70% in August 2022. The country ended up failing to pay its foreign debts.

Following huge protests in 2022 and the resignation of the president, Sri Lanka began a major political and economic shift. It secured a bailout from the International Monetary Fund and implemented reforms aimed at stabilising the economy.

So far, some of the effects have been positive. Inflation has eased, investor confidence has improved and more tea, clothing and rubber products are being exported up.

Key to this has been improved logistics and port infrastructure. Business at the port of Colombo, the country’s largest, is booming, aided in part by global shipping disruptions, including the Red Sea crisis, which rerouted vessels through the Indian Ocean.

But international maritime ambitions can be a complex affair, and Sri Lanka needs to be wary of becoming just a well-positioned commodity for the world’s economic superpowers.

China for example, has secured a controversial 99-year lease of Hambantota port. India, wary of Chinese encroachment, has ramped up its own investments, including the development of a container terminal in Colombo.

In 2023, the US announced a US$500 million (£372 million) plan to develop a deep-water shipping container terminal at the port of Colombo. And the potential US tariffs of 30% on imports from Sri Lanka have been interpreted by some as a pressure tactic to get greater access to its waters.

Balancing these interests is a delicate act. While foreign investment is crucial for infrastructure development, Sri Lanka needs to protect its sovereignty and ensure that port operations serve national, not just international, interests.

My research suggests that one way of building a resilient and diverse Sri Lankan economy would be to focus on its surrounding waters. Sri Lanka’s vast “exclusive economic zone”, an area of sea where it controls marine resources, holds massive untapped potential.

Blue economy

This potential lies in traditional sectors like fisheries and tourism, but also emerging industries such as marine biotechnology.

This growing field offers opportunities in things like bioengineering and marine-based pharmaceuticals. With other countries rapidly advancing in these sectors, Sri Lanka is well-positioned to follow suit and become a regional leader in the blue economy (economic activities associated with the sustainable use of ocean resources).

Port and harbour scene. — Business is booming in the port of Colombo.
shutterlk/Shutterstock

But there is still a complex web of geopolitical interests and economic pressures to navigate, as well as environmental challenges.

At the moment for example, the Sri Lankan government is making plans for the deep natural port at Trincomalee to become a major marine repair and refuelling centre between Dubai and Singapore. Other proposed projects include offshore wind farms and oil rig facilities.

The country also needs to compete with the likes of Malaysia, which is investing heavily in AI-driven port operations. To stay competitive, Sri Lanka must modernise infrastructure and streamline processes.

And despite the progress, challenges persist. Poverty in Sri Lanka has doubled since 2021, while youth unemployment remains high.

Sri Lanka faces rising maritime threats like piracy and illegal fishing, requiring stronger maritime surveillance. Simultaneously, port expansion risks damaging marine ecosystems. Green technologies and stricter environmental regulations are essential for long-term security and sustainability.

Sri Lanka’s strategic location and maritime heritage offer a foundation for economic renewal. With wise governance, sustainability, and balanced geopolitics, its ports could once again become vital gateways to regional prosperity and global trade.

Hemamali Tennakoon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As Sri Lanka’s economy pivots from tourism, it’s well placed to benefit from global trade and geopolitical jostling – new research – https://theconversation.com/as-sri-lankas-economy-pivots-from-tourism-its-well-placed-to-benefit-from-global-trade-and-geopolitical-jostling-new-research-261231

July 22, 2025

A global treaty to limit plastic pollution is within reach – will countries seize the moment?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Winnie Courtene-Jones, Lecturer in Marine Pollution, Bangor University

Bandung, Indonesia. Sony Herdiana/Shutterstock

Representatives from 175 countries will gather in Geneva, Switzerland, in August for the final round of negotiations on a legally binding UN treaty to end plastic pollution. Non-governmental organisations, academics and industry lobbyists will also be in the room. They will all be hoping to influence what could be the world’s first truly global agreement on plastics.

The summit, known as “INC-5.2”, follows a failed attempt to reach agreement in Busan, South Korea, late last year. That meeting ended without resolving important issues, despite hopes that it would conclude the treaty process. Now, it’s crunch time in Geneva.

Either countries bridge their political divides, or risk the whole process falling apart.

I’ve been researching the effects of plastic for more than a decade and have been involved in the UN treaty process since 2022. I’ve attended several of the negotiations and will be in Geneva next month. The science is clear: we need ambitious action which tackles every stage of the plastics lifecycle, from production through to disposal. But the question is, will countries deliver?

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In 2022, the UN Environment Assembly agreed to develop a legally binding treaty to end plastic pollution. Since then, progress has been slow. Negotiations have repeatedly stalled over issues such as whether the treaty should limit plastic production or regulate chemicals, how to define terms, and how to fund implementation.

Industry lobbying has also played a powerful role throughout. At the last round of talks, lobbyists for the petrochemical and plastics industries made up the single largest delegation. They outnumbered representatives from the EU, all of Latin America, the Pacific islands, independent scientists and Indigenous communities. This imbalance threatens to weaken the science-based action that is urgently needed.

Although countries failed to reach agreement in Busan, a foundation was laid. They agreed to continue negotiations using the “chair’s text”, which is a draft treaty with multiple options still on the table. That document forms the starting point in Geneva. But it remains uncertain whether enough common ground can be found to finalise the text.

What’s at stake?

This treaty is a once-in-a-generation chance to tackle one of the world’s most urgent environmental crises. More than 450 million tonnes of plastic are produced every year. That figure is expected to double by 2045 if current trends continue.

Only around 9% of plastic is ever recycled. The rest is landfilled, incinerated or ends up polluting the environment.

An estimated 139 million tonnes of plastics pollute marine and fresh water. But that could be significantly higher when considering leakages of plastics to land, and from microplastics, which are plastics smaller than 5mm in diameter.

Plastic is found in the deepest oceans, the remotest mountains and inside the human body. While scientists are only beginning to understand the long-term implications for human health, biodiversity and climate, studies show harmful effects of plastics and their chemicals on animals and ecosystems.

Plastic pollution doesn’t respect national borders. It moves through rivers, oceans and air, and gets carried across continents. Global supply chains and waste exports have made this a problem no country can solve alone. That’s why a global treaty is essential.

Crossroads

Despite this growing urgency, a disparity in positions has hindered progress and continues to divide delegations.

Some, such as members of the High Ambition Coalition, a group of countries committed to progressive climate action, want strong rules to cap plastic production, phase out toxic chemicals and hold polluters accountable. Others, often with prominent petrochemical industries, argue for a weaker, voluntary approach focused mainly on recycling and waste management.

If these divisions aren’t resolved, there’s a real risk the treaty will end up being too watered down to make a difference. A patchy, fragmented agreement would fail to curb rising plastic production and could undermine the integrity of global action.

Between December’s meeting in Busan and next month’s talks, countries have been holding smaller meetings to try to find compromise. That momentum must now be carried into the final negotiations.

Important articles in the draft treaty, including those on chemicals and products, plastic production and finance, remain contested. Whether those provisions are strengthened or diluted will shape the treaty’s effects for decades to come.

Flexibility will be needed. But leadership is also crucial. Countries that support an ambitious outcome must stand firm and bring others with them.

As we approach what may be the final negotiating round, we’re at a critical crossroads. The world has the chance to take meaningful action on plastic pollution. Let’s not waste it.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

Winnie Courtene-Jones is an unpaid member and working-group lead of the Scientists’ Coalition for an Effective Treaty; an International network of independent scientific and technical experts contributing robust scientific evidence to the Treaty process.

– ref. A global treaty to limit plastic pollution is within reach – will countries seize the moment? – https://theconversation.com/a-global-treaty-to-limit-plastic-pollution-is-within-reach-will-countries-seize-the-moment-261331

July 22, 2025

Learning statistics through story: students get creative with numbers

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Johan Ferreira, Professor, University of the Witwatersrand

Statistics professor Johan Ferreira was feeling overwhelmed by the amount of “screen time” involved in online learning in 2021. He imagined students must be feeling the same way, and wondered what he could do to inspire them and make his subject matter more appealing.

One of the topics in statistics is time series analysis: statistical methods to understand trend behaviour in data which is measured over time. There are lots of examples in daily life, from rainfall records to changes in commodity prices, import or exports, or temperature.

Ferreira asked his students to write a short, fictional “bedtime” story using “characters” from time series analysis. The results were collected into a book that is freely available. He tells us more about it.

Why use storytelling to learn about statistics?

I’m fortunate to be something of a creative myself, being a professional oboe player with the Johannesburg Philharmonic Orchestra. It’s a valuable outlet for self-expression. I reflected on what other activity could inspire creativity without compromising the essence of statistical thinking that was required in this particular course I was teaching.

I invited my third-year science and commerce students at the University of Pretoria to take part in a voluntary storytelling exercise, using key concepts in time series analysis as characters. Students got some guidelines but were free to be creative. My colleague and co-editor, Dr Seite Makgai, and I then read, commented on and edited the stories and put them together into an anthology.

Students gave their consent that their stories could be used for research purposes and might be published. Out of a class of over 200 students, over 30 contributions were received; 23 students permitted their work to be included in this volume.

We curated submissions into two sections (Part I: Fables and Fairy Tales and Part II: Fantasy and Sci-Fi) based on the general style and gist of the work.

The project aimed to develop a new teaching resource, inspire students to take ownership of their learning in a creative way, and support them through informal, project-based peer learning.

This collection is written by students, for students. They used personal and cultural contexts relevant to their background and environment to create content that has a solid background in their direct academic interests. And the stories are available without a paywall!

What are some of the characters and stories?

Student Lebogang Malebati wrote Stationaryville and the Two Brothers, a tale about AR(1) and AR(2). In statistics, AR refers to processes in which numerical values are based on past values. The brothers “were both born with special powers, powers that could make them stationary…” and could trick an evil wizard.

David Dodkins wrote Zt and the Shadow-spawn. In this story, Zt (common notation in time series analysis) has a magic amulet that reveals his character growth through a sequence of models and shows the hero’s victory in the face of adversity. He is a function of those that came before him (through an AR process).

Then there’s Nelis Daniels’ story about a shepherd plagued by a wolf called Arma (autoregressive moving average) which kept making sheep disappear.

And Dikelede Rose Motseleng’s modern fable about the love-hate relationship between AR(1) (“more of a linear guy” with a bad habit of predicting the future based on the past) and MA(1), “the type of girl who would always provide you with stationarity (stability).”

What was the impact of the project?

It was a deeply enriching experience for us to see how students see statistics in a context beyond that of the classroom, especially in cases where students reformulated their stories within their own cultural identities or niche interests.

Three particular main impacts stand out for us:

students have a new additional reference and learning resource for the course content
new students can refer to the experiences and contextualisation of this content of former students, leading to informal peer learning
students engage in a cognitive skill (higher-order and creative thinking) that is not frequently considered and included in this field and at this level.

In 2024, shortly after the book was published, we asked students in the time series analysis course of that year to read any one of four stories (related to concepts that were already covered in the course material at that point in time). We asked them to complete a short and informal survey to gauge their experience and insights regarding the potential of this book as a learning resource for them.

The 53 responses we got indicated that most students saw the book as a useful contribution to their learning experience in time series analysis.

One positive comment from a student was:

I will always remember that the Random Walk is indeed not stationary but White Noise is. I already knew it, but now I won’t forget it.

Will you build on this in future?

It is definitely valuable to consider similar projects in other branches of statistics, but also, in other disciplines entirely, to develop content by students, for students.

At this stage, we’re having the stories and book translated into languages beyond English. In large classes that are essential to data science (such as statistics and mathematics), many different home languages may be spoken. Students often have to learn in their second, third, or even fourth language. So, this project is proving valuable in making advanced statistical concepts tactile and “at home” via translations.

Our publisher recently let us know that the Setswana translation is complete, with the Sepedi and Afrikaans translations following soon. To our knowledge, it’ll be the first such project not only in the discipline of statistics, but in four of the official languages in South Africa.

Johan Ferreira receives funding from the Centre of Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, based at the University of the Witwatersrand, towards this Scholarship of Learning and Teaching project.

– ref. Learning statistics through story: students get creative with numbers – https://theconversation.com/learning-statistics-through-story-students-get-creative-with-numbers-261198

July 22, 2025

Livestock and lions make uneasy neighbours: how a fence upgrade helped protect domestic and wild animals in Tanzania

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Jonathan Salerno, Associate Professor, Colorado State University, Colorado State University

Protecting livestock in areas where large carnivores (like lions) live is increasingly important as human land use expands, wildlife habitat shrinks, and climatic changes reshape the ways in which humans and wildlife interact. Protecting the carnivores from livestock owners is important too. Intact carnivore populations support more resilient food webs and the ecosystem services they provide.

It’s not easy for people, livestock, and carnivores to live together without conflict, though. One of the best ways to reduce conflict is to protect livestock like cattle and sheep from being attacked by predators.

There are various methods to do this, like guarding livestock or erecting fences. That’s all very well for the livestock inside the fences, but do predators simply turn to the nearest unprotected livestock for their meal instead? Are the neighbours’ cattle, sheep, and goats at greater risk? This question hasn’t been explored much by researchers.

We’re a group of conservation practitioners and scientists who have studied the interactions of carnivores, livestock, and people in Tanzania and elsewhere for decades to try and find solutions to conflict problems.

Our study area is next to a national park which protects important populations of lion, leopard, hyena, African wild dog, and cheetah. The people who live here have traditionally kept their livestock overnight in enclosures made of acacia-thorn branches. More recently, some of them have built pens, or corrals, from tall chain link fencing. We knew from years working with communities and from previous research that these fortified corrals were effective at keeping livestock safe from predators.

Our next step was to find out whether this made other nearby livestock less safe.

The results were intriguing. We found that the new enclosures made predation less likely in the nearby traditional enclosures too.

This type of beneficial spillover effect had yet to be documented in other systems where interventions aim to protect livestock from large carnivores.

Our results show that in conservation, it’s important to look closely at complex local dynamics. The findings may help explain why there’s so much uncertainty about the effectiveness of various human–wildlife conflict mitigation strategies.

Beneficial spillover effects

People who keep livestock in east Africa have long had strategies to keep their animals safe from large carnivores. Sometimes acacia-thorn night enclosures (known locally as bomas), intensive herding practices, and guarding dogs work well.

Other times, and especially in communities within and adjacent to large, protected carnivore populations, traditional strategies fall short.

This is the case in Tanzania’s Ruaha-Rungwa Landscape. In our study area adjacent to Ruaha National Park, any pastoralist or agropastoralist (herding and crop farming) household has about a 30% chance of losing one or more animals to predation each year. This is a serious economic loss on top of important cultural and emotional costs.

Lion Landscapes, an organisation that some of us have been running for over a decade, works to support human-carnivore coexistence. Adjacent to Ruaha, we have been partnering with households to build 1.8-metre chain-link corrals. We subsidise them. Households contribute 25% of the cost and some of the labour for construction.

We analysed about 25,000 monthly reports of livestock predation in fenced and traditional enclosures, using statistical models. There were 846 predation events over nearly four years. Unexpectedly, while we did detect spillover effects, these appeared to be beneficial. Rather than displacing conflicts, fortified enclosures actually conferred protective effects on their traditional-enclosure neighbours.

For example, households within 50 metres (the minimum observed distance) of a fortified enclosure were half as likely to experience predation compared with distant households 2 kilometres away. And these beneficial effects increased with the number of fortified enclosures in a neighbourhood. Finally, the effects appeared to be durable over time.

The fortified enclosures were extremely effective. We showed that households could break even after paying for the fence in just a few years through avoided livestock losses. And we know that when domestic animals aren’t being killed, their owners are more tolerant of predators. We didn’t record carnivore killings in this study but it has happened fairly frequently in the area in the past.

In a few of the world’s human-wildlife conflict systems, where data exist to assess spillover effects, there is evidence that detrimental spillovers do occur. For instance, beehive deterrents may redirect elephants to nearby crop fields, or lethal removal of individual wolves may redirect the surviving pack to prey on adjacent ranches. Nevertheless, these are very under-studied interactions.

Livestock management and carnivore coexistence

In systems where humans, livestock, and wildlife overlap and sometimes come into conflict, management strategies too often focus on wildlife. Another option is to reduce whatever attracts wildlife. In the case of large carnivores, this means managing livestock.

Our results support this approach by demonstrating that management and protection of livestock is fundamental for reducing conflict, and can benefit not only livestock owners but landscape-level coexistence.

Conservationists and policy-makers need to encourage these practices that benefit people, carnivores, and livestock in shared landscapes.

Amy Dickman works for Lion Landscapes as the Joint CEO

Jonathan Salerno, Kevin Crooks, Rekha Warrier, and Stewart Breck do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Livestock and lions make uneasy neighbours: how a fence upgrade helped protect domestic and wild animals in Tanzania – https://theconversation.com/livestock-and-lions-make-uneasy-neighbours-how-a-fence-upgrade-helped-protect-domestic-and-wild-animals-in-tanzania-258113

July 22, 2025

Ghana’s security strategy has kept terror attacks at bay: what other countries can learn from its approach

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah, Postdoctoral Fellow, Dublin City University

Ghana stands out in west Africa as a nation that has not experienced terrorist attacks, even though it’s geographically close to countries that have. In Burkina Faso, Mali and Nigeria, extremist groups such as Boko Haram and Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP) have wreaked havoc.

This resilience is not accidental. It is the result of deliberate counter-terrorism strategies employed by Ghana’s security institutions.

Ghana’s counter-terrorism framework was set out in 2020. It has four pillars: prevent, pre-empt, protect, and respond. The idea is to coordinate multiple agencies, including the Ghana Police Service, Ghana Immigration Service, Ghana Armed Forces and the National Intelligence Bureau.

These pillars guide strategies to address both immediate threats and underlying vulnerabilities. Poverty, religious radicalism and porous borders are common drivers of terrorism in west Africa.

I am an international security and global governance researcher. My co-author is a government and international studies scholar.

Four years ago we wrote a paper examining Ghana’s resilience against terrorist attacks. Our findings are still relevant given the increasing activities of terror groups in the west African region.

We wanted to identify what works as a potential model for other countries.

Using a qualitative methodology, we interviewed stakeholders — including police officers, members of the armed forces, Muslim community leaders, and immigration officials. We also analysed the national framework for preventing and countering violent extremism and terrorism.

Our findings showed that Ghana’s success is traceable to an approach that integrates community engagement with advanced border technology, inter-agency training, media collaboration and intelligence operations. And it addresses both immediate and underlying threats.

We argue that Ghana’s ability to balance prevention with security offers solutions for stability in a geopolitically volatile region.

Community engagement

One of the standout strategies is community engagement. This serves multiple purposes, from guiding people away from extremism to gathering intelligence.

The Ghana Police Service, for instance, engages Muslim-dominated communities, known as “Zongos”, to counter radical Islamic ideologies that could be exploited by terrorist groups.

By collaborating with local religious leaders, police make communities aware of the dangers of radicalisation. They foster trust and encourage residents to report suspicious activities. This approach also works in tackling illegal arms circulation.

Ghana has an estimated 2.3 million small arms in circulation – 1.1 million of them illegally possessed. The availability of so many weapons fuels terrorist activities across west Africa.

Community based de-radicalisation aligns with global best practices. In Norway, for instance, it was used to disengage youth from extremist groups.

Technology at borders

Ghana’s border control management is another part of its counter-terrorism strategy. Ghana Immigration Service uses advanced security software and integrated systems like the “Immigration 360” system, designed to fully automate passenger processing and data management.

The system manages records of fingerprints and other data to improve reporting and intelligence sharing between Ghana Immigration and other security agencies.

The technology makes it possible to quickly identity individuals on terrorist watchlists and detects concealed goods. This helps prevent illegal cross-border movements.

There are gaps in Ghana’s defences, however. The influx of migrants fleeing extremist violence in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in 2024 highlights the urgency of scaling up investments in the technology.

Training for preparedness

Ghana combats new and varying forms of terrorism by uncovering trends and training personnel to deal with them.

A notable example was the six-day joint training in 2022 involving the Ghana Immigration Service, Police Service, Customs, Economic and Organised Crime Office, and the National Intelligence Bureau.

The country also works with regional neighbours like Burkina Faso, Togo and Benin, and partners such as the United States, through initiatives like “Operation Epic Guardian”.

Media as a strategic partner

Terrorists rely on media to amplify fear and publicise their causes. Ghana’s security agencies counter this tactic by actively engaging media houses to report accurately.

The Ghana Armed Forces, for instance, works with media to debunk false reports, which can cause public panic and inadvertently aid terrorists.

The Ghana Police Service emphasises regular dialogue with media to ensure sensitive information is verified before publication, reducing the risk of tipping off suspects. However, media competition for viewers poses a challenge.

Surveillance and intelligence gathering

Surveillance and intelligence gathering is critical. Plainclothes armed forces and immigration personnel blend into communities to monitor potential threats. The approach has worked but is constrained by resources.

It can also risk human rights violations, such as wrongful profiling, and is less effective against multiple targets compared to technological solutions like facial recognition or CCTV.

Challenges and regional implications

Despite its successes, Ghana’s counter-terrorism framework faces challenges that could undermine its long-term efficacy:

logistical and financial constraints
the influx of migrants fleeing regional violence
a lack of harmonised security cultures within the regional body, Ecowas.

In all, Ghana’s strategies offer lessons for west Africa, where terrorism is a growing threat.

Its community engagement model could be followed in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to counter radicalisation and arms proliferation, provided it avoids religious stereotyping.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Ghana’s security strategy has kept terror attacks at bay: what other countries can learn from its approach – https://theconversation.com/ghanas-security-strategy-has-kept-terror-attacks-at-bay-what-other-countries-can-learn-from-its-approach-260333

July 22, 2025

I research rip currents where ‘Cosby Show’ star Malcolm-Jamal Warner drowned. Here’s why they’re so deadly

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Chris Houser, Professor in Department of Earth and Environmental Science, and Dean of Science, University of Waterloo

Malcolm-Jamal Warner, the actor who played Theo Huxtable on The Cosby Show, has drowned on Costa Rica’s Caribbean coast.

It is reported that he was swimming at Playa Cocles in Limon province when a current pulled him offshore. This is a beach popular among surfers and one that’s known to have large waves and strong currents.

It’s also a beach that I have taken students to in order to study the formation of rip currents and to better understand what beach users know about the hazard.

What exactly are rip currents?

Rip currents — commonly referred to as rips or colloquially as rip tides — are found on ocean beaches and some large lakes around the world.

The rips at Playa Cocles and along a large part of the Costa Rican Caribbean coast are known as channel or bathymetric rips that form as the nearshore sand bar moves toward the land through the summer. The water thrown towards the land by the breaking waves returns offshore as a concentrated and fast flowing current at gaps in the nearshore sand bar.

During storm conditions, we have measured the rip currents at Playa Cocles at over two metres per second. These rips are known to increase rapidly (or pulse) in strength due to changes in wave breaking, leading to unsuspecting swimmers being taken far offshore and exiting beyond the zone of breaking waves.

Rip current at Playa Cocles showing change in size and strength with surfers for scale. (Chris Houser)

While it can be difficult to spot a rip from shore, they can be identified by an area of relatively calm water between breaking waves, a patch of darker water or the offshore flow of water, sediment and debris.

Caught in a rip current

A person caught in a rip is transported away from shore into deeper waters, but they aren’t pulled under the water. If they are a weak swimmer or try to fight the current, they may panic and fail to find a way out of the rip and back to shore. Survivor stories highlight panic, anxiety, distress and fear, a tendency to fight the current and an inability to make a decision on how to escape the rip.

While it is possible to “break the grip of the rip” by swimming parallel to the beach or toward breaking waves at an angle to the beach, there is no single escape strategy due to the unique rip circulation pattern.

It’s possible to escape a rip by flipping onto your back, floating to keep your head above the water and following the current until you’re returned to the shore by the current or able to swim safely toward the shore. If you are taken beyond where the waves break, or you’re unable to swim back to shore, continue to float and signal for help.

Rip currents account for more than 50 deaths a year in Costa Rica; approximately 19 drownings a year involve foreign tourists from the United States, Nicaragua, Canada and Germany. While most drownings in the country occur on Pacific coast beaches that are a short distance to the city of San José, more than five drownings occur each year along the Caribbean coast.

Playa Cocles was the site of five drownings that occurred over eight days in 2004, an event that prompted tourism-dependent business owners to establish a lifeguard station on the beach.

Costa Rican drownings

On average, each drowning in Costa Rica costs more than US$2 million (USD). This includes the direct costs of search and rescue, the costs of repatriation and the long-term economic burden of a lost life. This is in addition to the great personal loss experienced by family and friends.

A survey at Playa Cocles and other beaches in Costa Rica revealed that a majority of beach users did not observe warning signs and that many were unable to interpret the warning and did not change their behaviour.

The majority of foreign drowning victims in Costa Rica had limited knowledge of rips and were unable to avoid the times and locations that were most hazardous.

In general, visitors to a beach often use simple visual cues when deciding to take risks. Recent studies suggest that tourists think beach access points and resorts are located adjacent to safe swimming areas, particularly when visual cues such as manicured paths and promotional posters that promote swimming at those locations.

Visitors are a high-risk group for drownings. They’re generally unfamiliar with the beach and its safety measures and often have poor knowledge of beach hazards, such as rip currents and breaking waves. This lack of knowledge can be exacerbated by language barriers, an overconfidence in swimming ability and peer pressure.

Rip current and beach users at Playa Cocles. The red flag was placed by lifeguards to mark the location of the rip for beach users. (Chris Houser)

Playa Cocles is a beautiful beach, but it’s known to have dangerous rips depending on the size of the breaking waves and the position of the sand bar.

When visiting any beach — from the Caribbean to the Great Lakes — it’s important to remember that there may be rip currents and to take serious precautions.

Chris Houser receives funding from NSERC.

– ref. I research rip currents where ‘Cosby Show’ star Malcolm-Jamal Warner drowned. Here’s why they’re so deadly – https://theconversation.com/i-research-rip-currents-where-cosby-show-star-malcolm-jamal-warner-drowned-heres-why-theyre-so-deadly-261653

July 22, 2025

How falling vaccination rates are fuelling the antibiotic resistance crisis

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ruchika Gupta, Assistant Professor and Medical Microbiologist, Department of Pathobiology and Lab Medicine, London Health Sciences Centre and Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, Western University

Antibiotic resistance is one of the biggest health threats we face today. It’s often blamed on the overuse of antibiotics, and for a good reason. But there’s another major factor quietly driving this crisis that doesn’t get as much attention: low vaccination rates.

In early 2025, Ontario had a measles outbreak with 2,200 cases as of mid-July, mostly in people who hadn’t been fully vaccinated. An outbreak in Alberta that began in March has expanded to more than 1,300 cases as of mid-July.

Measles had been eliminated in Canada since 1998, but it’s now reappearing, largely due to missed or delayed vaccinations. On the surface, these might seem like a limited viral outbreak. But the ripple effects go much further, causing more illness, more complications and, ultimately, more antibiotic use.

Why measles can lead to antibiotic use

Measles itself is a viral infection, so antibiotics don’t treat it directly. But the virus weakens the immune system, leaving people vulnerable to bacterial infections like pneumonia or ear infections, conditions that do require antibiotics.

Unsurprisingly, this pattern isn’t new. A 2019 study published in Pediatrics showed that many children hospitalized with measles in the United States developed secondary infections that required antibiotic treatment, especially pneumonia and ear infections.

While data from the Ontario outbreak is still being analyzed, experts expect a similar surge in antibiotic prescriptions to treat these preventable complications.

The antibiotic resistance chain reaction

Infographic showing how mutations contribute to antibiotic resistance — Every time we use antibiotics, we give bacteria a chance to adapt.
(NIAID), CC BY

Here’s where it gets dangerous. Every time we use antibiotics, we give bacteria a chance to adapt. The most vulnerable bacteria die, but tougher ones survive and spread. This leads to antibiotic resistance where treatments that used to work no longer do.

Even appropriate use of antibiotics, like treating a bacterial infection after measles, adds to the problem. And the more often we need to prescribe antibiotics, the faster this resistance builds.

A 2022 global study published in The Lancet estimated that antimicrobial resistance directly caused 1.27 million deaths in 2019 and contributed to many millions more. As resistance spreads, doctors are forced to use more toxic, expensive or last-resort drugs, and sometimes, no effective treatment exists at all.

Infographic showing how antibiotic treatments become ineffective against resistance bacteria. — Antibiotic resistance means that treatments that used to work no longer do.
(NIAID), CC BY

How vaccines help fight resistance

Vaccines are one of the most powerful tools we have not just to prevent disease, but to reduce antibiotic use and slow resistance. By stopping infections before they happen, vaccines reduce the need for antibiotics in the first place.

Some vaccines protect directly against bacteria. Pneumococcal vaccines (PCV13, PCV15, PCV20) guard against a major cause of pneumonia, brain infections and ear infections. Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and diphtheria vaccines prevent other respiratory bacterial diseases.

Other vaccines protect against viruses, which can weaken the body and open the door to bacterial infections called as secondary bacterial infections.

The MMR (measles-mumps-rubella) vaccine not only prevents measles but also reduces the chance of bacterial pneumonias that often occur after measles due to immunosuppression.

The seasonal flu and COVID-19 vaccines help prevent viral infections that can trigger secondary bacterial complications.

The rotavirus vaccine that protects against diarrheal disease in children has also been shown to reduce antibiotic use by more than 20 per cent, according to a 2024 study in Vaccine.

In fact, a 2020 study in Nature found that improving childhood vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries could reduce antibiotic-treated illnesses in kids under five by more than 20 per cent. That’s a massive step forward in the fight against antibiotic resistance.

A wake-up call

The measles outbreaks in Ontario and Alberta aren’t just local issues; they are a global warning. Each missed vaccine doesn’t just put one person at risk; it potentially means more infections, more complications and more antibiotics. That, in turn, means more antibiotic resistance for everyone.

Vaccines are not just about individual protection. They are a public health strategy that keeps antibiotics effective for when we really need them, especially for vulnerable people like cancer patients, transplant recipients and the elderly, who rely on antibiotics to survive routine infections.

Vaccines, in fact, do more than prevent disease. They protect our ability to treat infections by reducing the need for antibiotics and slowing the rise of resistant bacteria. With preventable diseases like measles making a comeback, now is the time to recognize the broader impact of vaccine hesitancy.

Choosing to vaccinate is more than a personal decision. It’s a way to protect our communities and preserve the life-saving power of antibiotics for generations to come.

Ruchika Gupta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How falling vaccination rates are fuelling the antibiotic resistance crisis – https://theconversation.com/how-falling-vaccination-rates-are-fuelling-the-antibiotic-resistance-crisis-259682

July 22, 2025

Dog thefts: what really happened during the COVID pandemic

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel Allen, Animal Geographer, Keele University

Dog theft can be a devastating crime. During the COVID pandemic, newspapers suggested there was an epidemic of “dognapping” in the UK. If you have a dog, the reports may have alarmed you at a time when there were already many reasons to feel afraid.

There are mixed views on whether or not lockdown triggered an increase in dog ownership. Animal welfare charity Battersea attributed a 53% increase in dog adoption to lockdown, and online pet adoption service Pets4Homes said in their 2022 report that demand for puppies rose 104% at the peak of lockdown in May 2020.

But animal charity PDSA said its survey data pointed to a gradual increase in dog ownership since 2011 rather than a dramatic surge during lockdown. However, we do know lockdown saw inflated prices for dogs, with some fashionable breeds going for £9,000.

In terms of criminal activity, social distancing restrictions seemed to lead to a decline in some forms of crime, including shoplifting and burglary. But many media outlets reported the number of dog thefts had increased up to 250% during the pandemic.

We wanted to explore if the data supported claims of a dognapping epidemic and whether patterns in dog theft could suggest ways to help reduce it. Our recent study found new insights into dog theft patterns and showed the situation was more complicated than it seemed at first glance.

Under the Theft Act 1968, dog theft is not a specific offence. It comes under other theft offences, such as burglary or theft from a person.

This means police records on dog theft were not included in crime statistics. The only way to access such information is through Freedom of Information (FOI) requests to individual police forces. There are 45 territorial and three special police forces in the UK, and each has its own reporting and recording practices.

Although police FOI data for dog theft must be approached with caution, it is useful. Previous studies exploring police FOI data found an upward trend in recorded dog thefts in England and Wales: rising nearly 20% from 2015 (1,545) to 2018 (1,849) for 41 police forces combined; and up 3.5% year on year from 2019 (1,452) to 2020 (1,504) for 33 police forces.

DogLost, a UK online community for reuniting lost and stolen dogs with their owners, reported a 170% increase in stolen dogs (with Crime Reference Numbers) registered on their website in 2020 (465), compared to 2019 (172). This figure was widely quoted as a national increase “since lockdown started” by the media.

The 250% increase figure first quoted in December 2020 was actually a comparison of two seven-month periods (January-July 2019 and 2020) for only one police force.

Patterns and trends

Our study found the data for the period covering the COVID pandemic is also incomplete. Data was provided by 32 forces (71%) for 2020, by 27 forces (60%) for 2021, and 23 forces (51%) for 2022.

Patterns and trends do, however, emerge. Between 2020 and 2022, the available data shows a 3.7% rise in dog thefts in the UK, from 1,573 to 1,631. When making adjustments for the number of police forces providing data (which decreased over the period), the estimated national figures suggest there may have been more significant rise of up to 44.2%.

While we cannot assume that the forces who supplied data are representative of all 45 regional forces, if this were the case, it would equate to 2,212 recorded dog thefts in 2020, 2,645 in 2021, and 3,191 in 2022.

There was a lot of variation between different areas. For example, Cambridgeshire, Gwent and Northumbria police forces experienced increases of 36%, 49% and 80% respectively in the number of recorded dog thefts between 2020 and 2021.

Monthly analysis of data from regional police forces and DogLost, show that the number of reports of stolen dogs started to go up when the UK entered its first national lockdown and again during part of the third lockdown. But the average number of police-recorded dog thefts was actually slightly higher outside of lockdown periods than during them between 2020 and 2022.

However, in contrast with police trends, DogLost data shows a 65.2% drop in dogs reported stolen on DogLost’s website in 2022 compared to 2020. Lower DogLost numbers may reflect limited visibility or presence of their networks, the use of alternative lost and stolen dog services, or reluctance to share personal details online due to scams targeting dog theft victims.

Close up of dog looking out of a window — Dogs are often stolen from inside their own homes.
GoodFocused/Shutterstock

Our study found that, overall, there probably was an increase in dog theft from
2020 to 2022, following already identified increases in the preceding years. This rise was probably driven by a combination of opportunity (more dogs, higher value) and situational factors (accessibility, dogs unattended in gardens while owners were inside).

Our evidence does not support the notion of a widespread epidemic as portrayed by the media. However, increased media interest probably amplified awareness of the issue, and influenced the creation of the Pet Theft Taskforce, a UK government initiative set up in May 2021 to investigate and tackle dog thefts.

New research appears to confirm the idea that dog abduction has significant welfare effects on both dogs and their owners. We also know that few dog thefts are successfully resolved, with under a quarter of stolen dogs likely to be returned and around 1%-5% of reported dog thefts result in someone being charged.

However, there is potential good news. Our ongoing research suggests the number of police-recorded dog thefts decreased slightly in 2023, and again in 2024. This is supported by research from pet insurer Direct Line, which has estimated a 21% decrease in the number of stolen dogs from 2,290 in 2023 to 1,808 in 2024 in the UK.

Daniel Allen is founder of Pet Theft Reform and patron of the Stolen and Missing Pets Alliance (Sampa).

Melanie Flynn is a member of the Research Advisory Committee of the Vegan Society (UK).

John Walliss does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Dog thefts: what really happened during the COVID pandemic – https://theconversation.com/dog-thefts-what-really-happened-during-the-covid-pandemic-252061

July 22, 2025

People with MS and other fluctuating health conditions are often forced to quit their jobs when they want to work

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alice Martin, Head of Research, Work Foundation, Lancaster University

Plans to cut health-related benefits in the UK continue to give the government political grief – as well as being a huge worry for claimants. Underpinning the controversy are government plans to move more people into work with a long-term ambition of 80% employment.

But cutting welfare costs is a blunt and unhelpful way to face the challenge of increasing employment among people with long-term health conditions.

For people with fluctuating and often invisible conditions such as multiple sclerosis (MS), welfare and work are not opposed. They are usually part of the same life journey – one that is rarely linear and requires systems and supports that are flexible, not punitive.

This was the focus of a recent study led by my research colleague Aman Navani and the MS Society. It is a major UK survey of people with MS with more than 1,100 respondents, and highlights systemic failures in workplace support and welfare systems.

Because of its fluctuating nature, MS can act as an important case study to understand how work should accommodate people’s evolving health needs. It also offers lessons that are relevant to a wide array of other conditions.

Cases of MS are rising globally. Around 150,000 people in the UK live with the condition, which affects the central nervous system and causes pain, mobility problems, cognitive issues and fatigue.

Women are more likely to have MS, which is usually diagnosed in people in their 30s or 40s. These, of course, are peak working years.

The vast majority of people with MS (96%) who participated in our study reported that their condition has affected their ability to work. This is because MS can make commuting and navigating workplace environments challenging, and physical and mental health impacts often overlap.

Managing symptoms such as cognitive changes, pain and restricted mobility can contribute to anxiety and depression. All of these things put additional strain on the working lives of those affected.

For a quarter of respondents (24%), MS had such a severe effect that they felt unable to work at all. Worryingly, one in two people said they have compromised their health by staying in a job.

For many, leaving work is the only solution they can see. More than one-quarter (26%) cited unmanageable workloads, 19% could not afford to stay in work due to low pay, 20% lacked flexible hours, and for 22% the flexibility they were offered did not meet their needs.

Just 8% said their employer helped them adapt their job to suit their health, and only 2% had progression opportunities tailored to their condition. But nearly half (45%) of those who left work said they could have stayed if their employer had understood their condition better.

Almost half (46%) of respondents who were in work had used the personal independence payment (Pip) as a lifeline. This is an allowance that helps people with the extra living costs associated with having a disability. Under the government’s plans, conditions will be tightened for new claimants.

Designing better jobs

Living with a fluctuating condition requires constant adaptation, from coping with exhaustion to managing the extra time and cost of daily activities. As such, the way jobs are designed matters.

A government report has said that one-quarter of those who are out of work and claiming health and disability benefits might be able to work if they could do so from home.

The rise of remote and hybrid work has indeed been a lifeline for some disabled workers. A recent major study of people who are classified as disabled highlights just how vital this change has been for them: 85% said remote or hybrid work was essential or very important when job hunting, and 79% wouldn’t apply for roles without it.

Among those working fully remotely, 64% said their physical health improved. Homeworking was valued by those with fluctuating conditions such as MS, and for disabled women and carers in particular, full-time homeworking was their preference.

But these gains are precarious. Growth in hybrid roles has stalled and some employers are grabbing headlines with “return-to-office” mandates even at the risk of losing key members of their workforce.

woman using a wheelchair commuting on public transport — Return-to-office mandates can force some workers to navigate a challenging commute.
AlvaroRT/Shutterstock

Nearly one in four working-age people in the UK are disabled. Work and welfare must be designed from the perspective of this growing and diverse cohort – ensuring financial security for people with health conditions, both in work and out of work.

Expanding and protecting access to secure and flexible jobs is key, including remote and hybrid roles, baking these models into more sectors of the economy. The government could lead by example with public sector workers, and protect jobs from knee-jerk employer mandates.

In January this year, only 3.8% of vacancies on the Department for Work and Pensions jobs portal included an option for hybrid or remote work.

Finally, it’s vital to improve job design and in-work support, with effective occupational health systems, consultation with workforces, normalising shorter working weeks and time off.

This would enable people with fluctuating conditions to attend appointments, recuperate and even take career breaks without harming their careers. For this, the UK needs a benefits system that supports movement in and out of work, avoiding financial cliff edges.

Too many people with MS and similar conditions who can and want to work are forced to leave jobs early due to inadequate support. They face a trade-off between progressing their working life and managing their health. The challenge for government and employers now is to remove this tension.

Alice Martin works for the Work Foundation think tank at Lancaster University, which received funding from MS Society to conduct the research.

– ref. People with MS and other fluctuating health conditions are often forced to quit their jobs when they want to work – https://theconversation.com/people-with-ms-and-other-fluctuating-health-conditions-are-often-forced-to-quit-their-jobs-when-they-want-to-work-259083

July 22, 2025

Sylvia Plath’s ‘fig tree analogy’ from The Bell Jar is being misappropriated

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Elisha Wise, English, University of Sheffield

In chapter seven of Sylvia Plath’s The Bell Jar (1963), protagonist Esther Greenwood imagines her life branching out before her like a green fig-tree. Each individual fig on the branches represents a different “wonderful future” – a family, a successful career, romance, travel, fame, etc.

High-achieving Esther has innumerable figs she can choose from, yet she envisages herself “starving to death” in the crook of the tree because she can’t make up her mind on which of the figs she should choose.

Her indecision stems from the knowledge that choosing one wonderful future means losing out on the other, equally appealing opportunities. She wants to experience all of them, but knows she cannot, and, in the end, spends so long deciding that every single fig rots and falls to the ground, dead.

By wanting to do everything, Esther misses her chance to do anything at all. This is a metaphor about wasted potential, fears of choosing the wrong pathway, and feeling rushed into making decisions before you truly know what you want. There is little wonder that it appeals to teenagers.

The “fig tree analogy”, as it is known online, is beloved by gen Z and has become a TikTok staple over the last three years. It was first discussed on the platform as part of the 2023 “Roman Empire” meme, with female users citing it as an example of something they constantly think about.

It then reached a new peak in early 2024 thanks to the “my fig tree” trend, in which users (again, predominantly young women) wrote future hopes and dreams onto a stock image of a fig branch in videos featuring accompanying audio of the passage being read aloud.

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This trend was, in essence, a way for people to share their dream jobs – with career pathways as varied as “surgeon” and “influencer” sometimes appearing on a single branch. But it also allowed young users to express their anxieties about planning for the future.

In one video, “I can’t help but wonder if I’m going to be truly happy in [my chosen career] forever” is written beside a beautifully illustrated fig tree. I remember feeling this way myself when I read The Bell Jar for the first time in the middle of university applications and big life choices.

When you are young, it can feel like you have only one choice and can never remake it, which is why Plath’s words spoke to me then and seem to be speaking to hundreds now.

But why exactly is this metaphor resonating so strongly with gen Z?

The girls who are participating in the “my fig tree” trend are not subject to the same binary choice of marriage or career that Esther faced. It is now possible to have loads of lovers and then a husband and family, and neither disqualifies you from also being a “brilliant professor” or “amazing editor” or anything else you wish to be.

In The Bell Jar, Plath treats these things as distinct because they would truly have felt that way in Esther’s time of enforced purity and nuclear families. She was, after all, writing pre-second-wave feminism.

So why, in our fourth-wave feminist world, do women still feel their options are so narrow? It could be because women workers are disproportionately at risk of being displaced by AI, or because other TikTok sensations like the “trad wife” are promoting to young women the very purity culture that Plath rallied against.

Perhaps, for this generation, it really seems urgent to grasp hold of one fig before all are lost.

However, as the “fig tree analogy” goes more and more viral, it is at risk of being removed from its original context. The signs of this are already visible on TikTok, as the passage has in the last month been used to soundtrack #romanticisinglife content and promote fig-themed homeware at a garden centre.

It was also referenced in a recent episode of reality dating show Love Island, where it was incorrectly named the “fig theory” and not attributed to Plath.

All of this suggests that the passage has now reached an audience of people who have not read The Bell Jar and see the analogy more as some generic life wisdom than a literary device. Indeed, TikTok videos by self-styled philosophers encouraging watchers to pick any or every fig off the tree instead of being paralysed by indecision like Esther are gaining traction.

While these may prove helpful to Zoomers unsure about their future pathway, I feel that the conversation around this metaphor is increasingly overlooking the fact that Esther is unable to choose a fig because she is depressed.

The real meaning of the fig tree analogy

The Bell Jar may be a novel about coming of age as a woman, but it’s also, at its core, the story of a woman having a breakdown. In the pages preceding the “fig tree analogy”, Esther calls herself “dreadfully inadequate” and claims that “I was only purely happy until I was nine years old”.

So, in the context of the novel, the metaphor can be read as a product of depressive thinking. It is not meant to be a universal truth.

Instead, it represents the subjective thoughts of a narrator who feels herself a failure, despite her plentiful opportunities, because she is mentally ill. Turning Plath’s prose into a theory or philosophy or meme minimises its darker aspects, particularly as the popular TikTok audio that accompanies “fig tree analogy” videos often cuts off before the figs fall, due to the app’s preference for short content.

Some users may well have participated in the “my fig tree” trend without even realising that the quotation ends with Esther losing everything.

Perhaps it should be concerning so many young people relate to a narrator who becomes so overwhelmed by her conflicting ambitions that she attempts to kill herself. I certainly wonder how Plath would feel about her words now being treated as emblematic of a collective female experience. If nothing else, I am sure she would be disappointed at how little has changed in 60 years.

This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

Elisha Wise will receive funding from the White Rose College of Arts and Humanities (ARCH) from October 2025.

– ref. Sylvia Plath’s ‘fig tree analogy’ from The Bell Jar is being misappropriated – https://theconversation.com/sylvia-plaths-fig-tree-analogy-from-the-bell-jar-is-being-misappropriated-261597