Category: English

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Fiona Brehony, PhD Candidate, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, The Open University

As Elaine, an artist in her 80s, stood at her window in north Manchester, she noticed new apartment blocks dominating the nighttime skyline: “The moon is no longer in view; I have to crane my neck out of the window in order to see it. Or to see the reflection of the moon.”

I have been meeting with the Many Hands Craft Collective – a group of older artists, knitters and poets – most Tuesdays for almost a year. The group has been gathering at the community room in Victoria Square, Manchester, for over a decade.

They have been reflecting on Manchester’s massive building boom as Victoria North – Britain’s largest regeneration project – transforms their neighbourhood with 15,000 new homes. City centre construction is also reshaping skylines they’ve known for decades.

Together, we have created a film tracking how urban regeneration transforms their world. The film explores their relationship with the elements through shifting light, redirected wind and changing rain.

People who have lived here for decades – reading wind patterns, tracking seasonal light, noticing atmospheric shifts – hold memories that city planners cannot see. Residents’ observations also reveal how wildlife experience urban change – birds, insects and nocturnal animals are all affected by altered light and wind.

Construction alters wind, blocks views of the moon and stars, and changes the subtle conditions residents have learned to read over lifetimes. Observations from these artists show that heritage is not just about preserved buildings or recorded rivers, but about the knowledge people carry.

As a film-maker and sound artist, I study the connections between people and the natural world. In 2008, when Manchester City Council rehoused my 82-year-old grandmother after she had lived in the same house for 60 years, she wrote poetry to process her loss.

“Bodies, not walls, carry memories,” she wrote. Her words inspired The Flowering (2020), my first poetic documentary exploring urban regeneration through the memories the body holds. This influenced my research into how cities transform.

In Manchester, the River Irk flows through Victoria North. New riverside properties rise while the river itself needs care. For two centuries it powered mills, was contaminated by dye works, then was eventually culverted (channelled into underground pipes, hidden from view). Yet the river flows on, and so does the memory it carries.

The artists at Many Hands carry intergenerational knowledge about how this urban environment has changed. Our conversations about riverside properties blocking sunlight led the group to reflect on how construction changes light in their own streets. Views of the moon disappeared, high-rise buildings shifted wind and rain, and the sound of water tapping against windows stopped.

My PhD project analysed atmospheric transformations alongside the river itself: how these numerous new buildings and developments change homes as well as waterways.

As climate change forces cities to adapt, observations accumulated over decades – how rain moves through streets, how wind patterns shift, how rivers sound differently with the seasons – could inform climate-responsive urban design. Yet regeneration often displaces the very people who carry this knowledge before it is even recognised.

Materials and memory

To retrace the Irk’s history, we worked with clay and natural materials from the river – silt, stones, industrial brick fragments. An artist called Dot recalled seeing blue pigeons from old dye works, with feathers stained from chemical colours.

As the clay stiffened as it dried, conversations turned to how cities are built. Victorian brick from the 1890s still stands solid, while new apartment exteriors are designed for 20-year lifespans.

Poetry emerged from the conversations: “Sand, soil, silt, leaves, clay, decaying plants, coal and dust, ash chemical waste” and “human hearts holding on to heritage, ours. Made of natural materials, hands, rain, wind, sunlight”. Different perspectives recognise people and rivers as bodies carrying memory through change.

Sound and poetry

As a group, we reconstructed waterwheels to explore how the Irk powered mills. One artist, Jean, suggested recording with hydrophones (special microphones that work underwater) in kitchen sinks. Water through household pipes connected us directly to the river, flowing through our fingertips. Playing hydrophone recordings for the first time, Jean said it sounded like being deaf – without her hearing aids, it was like being underwater.

This revealed a crucial insight: listening is shaped by our bodies. Jean’s deafness meant she heard the river differently, noticing frequencies and vibrations others might miss. Kitchen sink hydrophones create access where it did not exist, bringing culverted, fenced or distant rivers into homes through soundwaves in domestic pipes.

These conversations evolved into Two Worlds, a sound installation created with composer and sound artist Simon Knighton. This piece of sound design informs the film score and explores how people coexist with the environment. The Irk pulsates different rhythms depending on where you listen. Harsh urban concrete or gentler upstream flows are heard differently by each set of ears.

As we wrote poetry together after discussing how some long-forgotten waterways have been buried beneath streets, Rose asked: “What happens to a river when it becomes a road?”

Rose’s question lies at the heart of my research: when cities develop, what environmental knowledge disappears?

Manchester has lost multiple rivers to culverting, development and roads. Older residents carry knowledge younger generations never knew existed. As climate change requires us to expose or “daylight” culverted rivers for flood management, these memories could guide restoration.

Many Hands’ Material River, a collection of films and poetry printed onto fabric, is on display within the River Stories exhibition until March 23 2026 in Manchester Histories Hub at Manchester Central Library.

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Fiona Brehony receives funding from Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC).

– ref. How artists are tracking environmental change through poetry, film and sound – https://theconversation.com/how-artists-are-tracking-environmental-change-through-poetry-film-and-sound-258838

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Krisztina Rudolf, PhD candidate , Liverpool John Moores University

Liverpool is not one of the “blue zones” – a term used for regions of the world where people tend to live unusually long lives, such as parts of Sardinia, Okinawa and Ikaria.

Healthy life expectancy in Liverpool is only about 56 years. However, overall life expectancy is much higher there, with many people living into their late 70s and beyond. This means many residents spend their final working years and a large part of retirement managing chronic illness or disability.

Ageing is inevitable but losing independence is not. As a PhD researcher studying muscle ageing, I work with adults in their 70s whose strength, mobility and resilience challenge common assumptions about later life – despite many of them living with long-term health conditions.

Jackie has three prolapsed discs in her spine and osteopenia, a condition where bone density is lower than normal and fracture risk is higher. Norma lives with a stoma following bowel cancer surgery. Mike jokes that his medical notes make him sound like “a wreck”.

But then you see the three of them train together five times a week.

During lockdown, when gyms closed and isolation threatened their health, they converted Mike’s garage into a makeshift training space so they could keep moving and stay independent. “We thought, we’ve got to do something,” Mike told me.

They embrace effort. They run parkrun, climb stairs deliberately, and value the feeling of being challenged – slightly breathless but capable. I think of them as Liverpool’s “blue people”. Their experience suggests that ageing well depends less on where you live, and more on how you live.

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Read more:
Small improvements in sleep, physical activity and diet are linked with a longer life

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I met them through Research Roasters, a science cafe connecting scientists and the public around health and ageing. They volunteered for studies on muscle health and physical function in later life, and helped shape how they were designed and delivered. They helped refine participant information and consent materials, introduced me to community groups and offered feedback on study design.

Their experiences reflect a core biological reality. Skeletal muscle is not just what helps us move. It is the body’s largest metabolic organ, essential for regulating blood sugar, maintaining body temperature and preserving independence.

Muscle maintenance

Muscle ageing starts earlier than many people realise. From our 30s, strength begins to decline – often faster than muscle size. People can look healthy while their muscle function is deteriorating.

One simple way to glimpse this is through movement. Try standing up from a chair and sitting back down five times as quickly as possible without using your hands. If it feels slow, difficult or unstable, it may signal reduced muscle quality.

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Read more:
How low can you go (and still build muscle)? Why strength training matters at any age

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This matters because muscle function predicts future health. Poor muscle quality increases fall risk, slows recovery and raises the likelihood of conditions such as type 2 diabetes.

At the microscopic level, muscle quality is shaped by proteins. These generate force, produce energy and repair damage. Unlike genes which remain relatively stable, proteins are constantly renewed. During physical activity, muscles rebuild and reorganise their protein machinery to meet demand. When muscles are not challenged, this renewal slows. The system becomes less responsive and function declines.

In my research, we use “dynamic proteome profiling” to track how thousands of muscle proteins are produced and renewed in older adults. This approach measures how quickly proteins are built, repaired and replaced inside muscle tissue.

Participants complete strength and mobility tests, wear activity monitors and provide small muscle samples, supported by a multidisciplinary team of researchers and clinicians. We analysed thousands of proteins and also grew their muscle stem cells in the lab, to understand how muscle adapts to activity.

The results do not show simple deterioration. Older muscle is different, but remains adaptable. Protein turnover may be slower and some repair processes less efficient, but muscles still respond to activity by building the proteins needed for strength, energy production and resilience.

Even later in life, muscles can adapt when they are used. This helps explain why our participants became stronger and more capable despite existing health conditions. Their experience highlights a crucial point. Ageing is strongly influenced by how muscles are used across the lifespan.

Blue people

Ray’s gym is a community fitness space in Liverpool where many of our participants train regularly. Not a formal research site, it is where the group work out, supporting each other and maintaining the strength and mobility that underpin their independence. The environment encourages effort, personal progress and accountability.

Members are not defined by their age. They are people working towards goals that matter to them – often, simply staying independent and in control of their lives.

This challenges common narratives about blue zones, which emphasise location, diet or lifestyle traditions as the main drivers of longevity. Those factors matter, but they can create the impression that healthy ageing is largely determined by where you live, rather than what you do. Liverpool’s “blue people” suggest something different.

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Read more:
People in the world’s ‘blue zones’ live longer – their diet could hold the key to why

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Their strength comes not from perfect health but ongoing adaptation. They challenge their muscles and stay engaged with their bodies. Muscle quality is not fixed – it reflects the demands placed on it.

The implications are significant. Healthy ageing does not require relocation to longevity hotspots or adherence to exotic diets. It begins with recognising muscle as the organ that underpins independence, and maintaining it through regular activity.

Research is helping us understand the biology behind this process. New studies and recruitment cycles reflect growing efforts to understand how muscle health can shape independence across the lifespan.

The people taking part are already showing what this looks like in practice. They are not reversing ageing, but they are maintaining capability. In doing so, they offer a realistic and accessible vision of growing older well.

Most of us can become a “blue person” by investing in the organ that most strongly shapes whether we age with independence as well as longevity: muscle.

Krisztina Rudolf does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Liverpool’s ‘blue people’: the older adults redefining what ageing looks like – https://theconversation.com/liverpools-blue-people-the-older-adults-redefining-what-ageing-looks-like-276023

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura O’Flanagan, PhD Candidate, School of English, Dublin City University

Director Mary Bronstein’s discomfiting new film, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, is a compelling watch. Centred by a career-defining performance from Rose Byrne that has gained her an Oscar nomination, the film is a dark treatise on motherhood, swirling in blame, shame and an increasing sense of dread.

Byrne’s Linda is an exhausted and perpetually worried mother, wife and therapist harbouring both guilt and resentment. She is looking after her seriously sick child, who is almost never shown on screen. Linda is not a woman unravelling, she is unravelled – the remnant pieces disintegrating in front of our eyes through a series of escalating awful events.

Her life is literally falling apart: her daughter’s health is not improving, her work as a therapist is difficult and unfulfilling, her husband (Christian Slater) is away for work and barely interested. Then the ceiling of her apartment falls in.

Byrne is magnetic, searingly raw and unfiltered as a woman pushed to the edge. She is ferociously committed to her performance and has never been better onscreen. She moves with emotional precision, careful and considered, never slipping into cliched melodrama or histrionics.

Throughout the film, Byrne is shown in close-up – in all interactions, the camera is focused on her. In this way, the director brings the audience fully into Linda’s mind and point of view. Every unsympathetic dismissal (even from her own therapist, a grim-faced Conan O’Brien), every moment of blame, is keenly felt and depicted without apology.

Linda’s daughter’s doctor (played by Bronstein) has an impatient callousness which compounds the anxiety. Linda’s daughter is around ten years of age, and portrayed primarily through sound off-screen: grating, insistent and impossible to ignore. Her cries, her arguing, her screams and the beeping of her medical equipment create an uncomfortable and urgent soundtrack, which draws viewers even further into Linda’s intense and stressful reality.

Even welcome moments of levity are tinged with a darkness which restricts their impact. Linda’s therapy clients provide some light relief, but a pervading heaviness hangs in the air, particularly in disturbing scenes with Caroline (an excellent Danielle Macdonald). An anxious, needy and demanding patient, Caroline is also a struggling mother, like Linda.

An unfortunate incident with a hamster builds in dark hilarity, only for the laughter to curdle. Linda becomes locked in a battle of wills with a motel receptionist (Ivy Wolk), whose jobsworth insistence around the sale of wine is exaggeratedly maddening – and leads to Linda’s unlikely connection with a charming motel employee, James (A$AP Rocky in fine form).

This is an urgent, important and admirable cinematic portrayal of motherhood, but I can’t say I enjoyed watching it. Its treatment of maternal anger and ambivalence without softening the edges is confronting and somewhat triggering. But this may have been Bronstein’s directorial intention.

Modern cinema has become less interested in saccharine, idealised depictions of mothers and more concerned with their inner lives, however messy. Recent films such as Nightbitch and Die My Love forego maternal sentimentality and tidy redemption, instead showing mothers as complex and imperfect human characters raising children.

Based on some of Bronstein’s real-life experiences of caring for a sick child, If I Had Legs I’d Kick you shines a glaring and uncomfortable light on aspects of motherhood which are usually kept in the shadows: the thankless drudgery, the loss of selfhood, and all the resentment and resultant guilt these carry with them.

Linda is drowning in despair and shame, unable to find help, empathy or even a break. Her experience of motherhood is harrowing and messy, and the film dares its audience to confront the strain both of looking after a sick child and of fierce maternal attachment.

Like its depiction of Linda’s life, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is imperfect and at times overwhelmingly chaotic. At its core, this is a dark and unsettling film which will start conversations about the complexities of motherhood. Byrne’s unrelenting and towering central performance makes it a compelling and unforgettable watch, albeit a challenging one.

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Laura O’Flanagan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You: Rose Byrne is raw, magnetic and unfiltered as a woman in crisis – https://theconversation.com/if-i-had-legs-id-kick-you-rose-byrne-is-raw-magnetic-and-unfiltered-as-a-woman-in-crisis-275990

Source: The Conversation – UK – By William Crozier, Duns Scotus Assistant Professor of Franciscan Studies, Durham University

St Francis of Assisi, who founded the Franciscan order, is one of Catholicism’s most revered saints. After Christ and the Virgin Mary, he is the most depicted figure within Catholic art, literature and film.

The patron saint of the environment, St Francis is best known for his love of animals and the natural world. Famously, he preached to the birds and referred to all creatures – including the stars and planets – as his beloved “brothers and sisters”.

When Francis died in 1226, fears that his body would be stolen meant that it was placed in an iron cage and buried so deep beneath the basilica in Assisi, Italy, that its whereabouts remained a mystery for 600 years. Aside from his fame for miracles and holiness, and subsequent canonisation in 1228, the reason Francis’s body was hidden was what it contained.

Two years before his death, it is said Francis experienced a vision of a crucified Seraphim (a six-winged angel) which marked his body with the stigmata – the wounds of the crucified Christ. The first recorded case of stigmata, medieval sources tell us that unlike later stigmatics, Francis did not just have holes in his hands and feet, but rather growths resembling nails.

St Francis’s earliest biographer Thomas of Celano wrote: “His hands and his feet seemed to be pierced by nails, the heads of the nails appearing on the insides of his hands and the upper side of his feet, and their points protruding on the other side … [His torso] was scarred as if it had been pierced by a spear, and it often seeped blood.”

Finding the the missing body

Numerous efforts to locate St Francis’s body over the centuries all failed. In 1818, though, excavations deep within the basilica’s foundations finally revealed the iron cage and the simple coffin containing the saint’s bones.

These were examined by ecclesial and scientific authorities which affirmed their authenticity. The last time the bones were examined was in 1978, when they were placed inside a nitrogen-filled perspex box to aid their preservation. An underground chapel was constructed to allow pilgrims to see St Francis’ tomb, though crucially not the bones themselves.

To commemorate the 800th anniversary of his death – known as the transitus – St Francis’s remains will go on extended display for the first time. From February 22 to March 22 2026, the perspex box containing his bones will rest at the foot of the main altar in the basilica in Assisi.

Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims are expected to come and see the bones, with their display opening a year-long series of events – both in Assisi and around the world – honouring the anniversary. The date itself falls on October 4 2026.

The 800th anniversary also marks a moment of national celebration for Italy. Giorgia Meloni welcomed the Vatican’s decision to allow the remains to go on display, noting that, “St Francis is one of the foundational figures of Italian identity”.

St Francis’s Canticle of the Creatures – a hymn which he composed as he lay dying – is one of the earliest works of Italian literature, with the oldest surviving copy being found in a 790-year-old manuscript housed in the Franciscan convent in Assisi.

The legacy of a much-loved saint

St Francis’s teachings have exerted a profound impact on modern Catholicism, particularly its teaching on the environment.

Pope Francis – who took the name in honour of the Italian saint – made the Canticle of the Creatures the cornerstone of his 2015 encyclical Laudato Si. The Catholic church’s first “green encyclical”, it praised the natural world as our “beautiful mother” and affirmed the church’s commitment to promoting environmental justice.

Likewise, a major joint document issued last July by the bishops of Asia, Africa and South America drew heavily on St Francis’s thinking, rejecting what it called the “false solutions” advanced by many western governments to address the climate crisis.

At the press conference marking the document’s publication, one of its authors, the Franciscan Cardinal Jaime Spengler, said: “From the heart of the Amazon, we hear a cry: how can we allow a market without ethical regulations decide the fate of the planet’s most vital ecosystems?”

When St Francis’ bones go on display, they will serve as a powerful reminder not only of his enduring relevance for Catholic spirituality, but also the vital role he has played in helping the contemporary Catholic church to become one of the leading advocates for meaningful climate reform.

The bones of St Francis will be on display at the Basilica of St Francis of Assisi, Umbria, Italy, from February 22 to March 22 2026

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Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

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William Crozier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Bones of St Francis of Assisi go on display for the first time – here’s why it took 800 years – https://theconversation.com/bones-of-st-francis-of-assisi-go-on-display-for-the-first-time-heres-why-it-took-800-years-273600

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Pauline Maclaran, Professor of Marketing & Consumer Research, Royal Holloway, University of London

In today’s fast-moving media world, brands are frequently required to respond to scandals that may tarnish perceptions of their products or services. Quick responses to quieten rumours or accept responsibility for missteps are crucial.

This becomes challenging when people themselves are the brand. Their behaviour is much harder to control than a press release. They present feelings and emotions that may disrupt any strategic response to scandal.

Britain’s royal family is a case in point – and with the arrest of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, their brand is facing one of its biggest tests of the modern age.

Consumers are known to form deeper, more emotional bonds with human brands than nonhuman ones – such as the passionate fans of Taylor Swift, who identify with her on a personal level. The flipside is that any perceived lapses or failures in judgment may also generate stronger emotions, reflecting more negatively on perceptions of that brand.

For years, the royal family has had to navigate publicity around the former Duke of York. Much of this is related to his long-term relationship with the late financier and convicted child sex offender, Jeffrey Epstein. Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest under suspicion of misconduct in public office places the rest of the family in a position of protecting the brand from damage by distancing themselves from him.

The arrest follows the US government publication of documents that appear to show Mountbatten-Windsor sharing official information with Epstein during his time as a trade envoy. That period, from 2001-11, was not without scrutiny for the then-prince. But the palace generally kept a low profile in response – following the mantra “never complain, never explain” that was often attributed to the late Queen Elizabeth.

Mountbatten-Windsor stepped down from the trade envoy role in 2011, with the palace issuing a simple statement that, in future, he would “undertake trade engagements if requested”.

In the following years, public pressure mounted on the royal family to be more transparent in many respects, especially concerning Mountbatten-Windsor’s embroilment with Epstein.

The turning point from a low-profile brand management strategy to more overt actions appears to have been Mountbatten-Windsor’s Newsnight interview in November 2019, in which he claimed to have broken off his friendship with Epstein in 2010. He also denied allegations of sexual abuse that had been brought by Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre.

This moment provided a focal point that attracted public outrage. In response, the royal family began to take more decisive action to avoid the brand being contaminated or “infected” by the negativity surrounding the former prince.

Social contagion

The concept of social contagion helps us understand how this works.

According to social contagion theory, people are influenced by those around them. This helps explain how behaviour, attitudes or emotions can spread through a group or society, much like a virus. What you may call “cancel culture” occurs when disapproval and moral condemnation of an individual or group snowballs across social media as people feel compelled to join in.

The reaction to the Newsnight interview – memes, mocking headlines and charities and sponsors distancing themselves from Mountbatten-Windsor – would have made clear to the royal family that their brand was at risk from this social contagion.

Despite the late queen’s reported support for her son, the monarchy began taking formal measures to protect the institution. In November 2019, Mountbatten-Windsor stepped back from public duties “for the foreseeable future”. In January 2022, he was stripped of royal patronages and military titles, as well as the right to use His Royal Highness in any official capacity.

The following month, Mountbatten-Windsor settled out of court with Giuffre for a reported £12 million, with no admission of wrongdoing.

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Spare: how the soap opera around Prince Harry’s memoir will affect the royal brand

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In May 2023, although he attended King Charles III’s coronation, he played no official role and was not included in the procession or royal balcony appearance. Since that time, King Charles and Prince William have made it known they do not want him back in public life.

The full removal of Mountbatten-Windsor’s title of prince in October 2025, following the publication of more Epstein-related documents, solidified his permanent exclusion from public life. Most recently, he has been forced to leave his royal residence and move to a more isolated home on the Sandringham Estate in Norfolk.

Both the king and William issued written statements to distance themselves in light of the newest Epstein files, expressing their “deep concern” for Epstein’s victims. The formality of making written statements signalled the seriousness with which they viewed the events, and also acted as a public record of their distancing from Mountbatten-Windsor. In showing their sympathy for the victims, they were aligning morally with them rather than defending him.

Once a brand is accused of criminal wrongdoing, this potentially escalates a crisis from a minor reputational issue into one that risks a complete breakdown of trust in the brand.

In a statement, the king said “let me state clearly: the law must take its course” and “my family and I will continue in our duty and service to you all”. His reference to “Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor”, as opposed to acknowledging him as his brother, makes clear Mountbatten-Windsor’s ostracisation from the rest of the family.

The royal family appear to have navigated their responses to the potential tarnishing of the monarchy in both official and unofficial ways. They have stripped Mountbatten-Windsor of all official roles and titles, excluded him from public royal events, shown public support for Epstein’s victims, and employed a media management strategy that shifts the focus to other royals.

But polling conducted before the arrest suggests the royal brand is still at risk.

Brands can weather scandals by making fast responses and accepting responsibility. But they may also need to build trust again by proving in the longer term that they have changed. Perhaps the royal family is due for a rebrand.

Pauline Maclaran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How the royal family brand can weather Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest – https://theconversation.com/how-the-royal-family-brand-can-weather-andrew-mountbatten-windsors-arrest-276431

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sanam Mahoozi, Research Associate, City St George’s, University of London

Donald Trump delivered an ultimatum to Iran at the first board of peace meeting in Washington on February 19. He told Tehran to reach a “meaningful” deal with the US within ten to 15 days or “really bad things” will happen. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had earlier said there are many arguments for taking military action in Iran.

These comments came as reports indicated that the latest round of indirect talks between the two countries in Switzerland on February 17 had made at least some headway. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, emerged from the negotiations hailing what he saw as “good progress”. He added that the US and Iran had reached an understanding on “guiding principles”.

The assessment of US representatives was less positive. Despite acknowledging that “in some ways” the talks went well, US vice-president J.D. Vance said Iran was refusing to acknowledge core US demands. The US wants Iran to dismantle its nuclear programme completely, reduce the number and range of its ballistic missiles and end its support for regional proxy groups.

Following the talks, the US has continued to reinforce its military presence in the Middle East. Cargo planes, fighter jets, refuelling tankers and an aircraft carrier have been moved to the region, with a second aircraft carrier expected to arrive soon. According to the New York Times, the buildup of US forces in the Middle East is now sufficient for Trump to order military action at any moment.

Iran appears to be gearing up for a confrontation. Its military held joint drills with Russia on February 19, days after the Strait of Hormuz was closed temporarily as Iran carried out live-fire exercises. And while emphasising that it “neither seeks tension nor war”, Iran has told the UN that if it were attacked it would consider “all bases, facilities and assets of the hostile force” in the region as “legitimate targets”.

These developments come less than a week after hundreds of thousands of people, largely from the Iranian diaspora, demonstrated in cities worldwide. They did so in solidarity with protesters who took to the streets of Iran in January to demand regime change.

In late December, protests that began over worsening economic conditions quickly spread nationwide in one of the most serious threats to Iran’s political establishment since the Woman, Life, Freedom protest movement of 2022. That protest wave began after the death of a 22-year-old women called Mahsa Amini in police custody.

This time round, the Iranian authorities imposed a near-total internet shutdown, creating a nationwide communications blackout in an effort to suppress the unrest. Human rights groups say thousands of people were killed, while many more were injured, detained or remain missing, in what was one of the most severe crackdowns in Iran’s modern history.

According to local police, around 250,000 people rallied on February 14 in the German city of Munich alone, where world leaders had gathered for Europe’s biggest security conference. Many of those in attendance waved flags bearing the lion and sun emblem of Iran that was used before the Islamic revolution in 1979 ended the Pahlavi dynasty.

Israeli and American flags were also visible at many of the rallies. This has widely been seen as a call for foreign intervention against Iran’s clerical leadership. Trump had raised the prospect of US military action during the unrest, urging the Iranian people to continue protesting and telling them that help was “on its way”. Such action now appears likely.

Brink of war

Iran’s fate is hanging in the balance. The deployment of US military assets to the Middle East suggests Trump may be preparing for imminent military action. However, despite making no secret of his desire to topple the Iranian regime, there is still a chance that Trump settles for a diplomatic agreement with the country’s leadership.

Iranian opposition voices, including exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi, say such a deal would only prolong the survival of the Islamic Republic rather than address the demands of people in Iran for regime change. In an interview with American political commentator Glenn Beck on February 11, Pahlavi called the negotiations between the US and Iran “another slap in the face of the Iranian people”.

But the prospects that any deal will be reached look slim. The US and Iran remain in fundamental disagreement over Tehran’s nuclear programme and have been unable to reach a deal since the Trump administration withdrew the US from a previous agreement in 2018 that had been negotiated by the Obama administration.

Many people, including the US vice-president, are also sceptical that Iran’s authorities will budge on additional US demands around ballistic missiles and proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah – whether or not they are threatened with military action.

Iran’s future is murky. But one thing is for certain: with war or without war, the Iranian people have started a revolution that has extended beyond their country’s borders.

Sanam Mahoozi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump has given Iran a ten-day ultimatum – but chances of an agreement look slim – https://theconversation.com/trump-has-given-iran-a-ten-day-ultimatum-but-chances-of-an-agreement-look-slim-276125