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July 5, 2025

Togo’s citizens want to leave Ecowas – new survey suggests why

Source: – By Koffi Améssou Adaba, Enseignant et chercheur en sociologie politique, Université de Lomé

A survey of Togolese citizens recently looked into perceptions of their government’s handling of the terrorist threat in the northern region and of the Alliance of Sahel States – Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The survey was carried out by Afrobarometer, an independent, pan-African research network, in partnership with the Center for Research and Opinion Polls.

The Savanes region in northern Togo, bordering Burkina Faso, has become an area of insecurity since a jihadist attack in 2021. This security crisis is part of a broader context of growing destabilisation in west African countries, centred on the Sahel region. It led to the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States in July 2024. The survey also covered perceptions of foreign influence in Togo and discrimination against women and girls among other topics.

Koffi Amessou Adaba, a political sociologist and one of the lead authors of the study, shares insights into the survey’s key findings, and the potential implications for Togo’s future.

What are the key findings of the survey?

The survey, which involved 1,200 people, reveals that 64% of Togolese respondents believe the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to form the Alliance of Sahel States is “somewhat” or “very” justified. This view is driven by three main factors:

• a perception that Ecowas is influenced by foreign powers

• a widespread rejection of Ecowas sanctions against Sahel states

• the belief that Ecowas failed to provide military support during those countries’ security crises.

In addition, 54% of Togolese consider the presence of Russia (or the Wagner Group, now known as Africa Corps) in the Alliance of Sahel States to be beneficial. This trust in a non-western external actor reflects a profound shift in geopolitical perceptions in the region.

Another important finding of this study is that 54% of Togolese believe their country would benefit from leaving Ecowas to join the Alliance of Sahel States.

But opinions are split on whether the Alliance of Sahel States helps or hurts west African integration: 39% believe it doesn’t undermine regional integration, but 37% think it does.

How do you make sense of the Togolese push to leave Ecowas?

This sentiment reflects growing frustration with Ecowas, which many Togolese now see as out of touch with the region’s realities.

The bloc is widely perceived as being too close to foreign powers and ineffective in responding to major security threats. Its repeated failures to help resolve Togo’s political crises (of 2005 and 2017 for example) have only deepened public disillusionment.

This frustration is unfolding alongside a broader wave of pan-Africanism in the region, marked by a growing rejection of former colonial powers and their institutional ties.

But this momentum should be approached with caution. The desire to leave Ecowas reflects anger and a strong appetite for change, not necessarily a clear assessment of the economic and diplomatic fallout such a move could bring.

What do respondents think about terrorism in the north of the country?

Nearly six in ten Togolese (59%) say they trust the government to contain or root out the terror threat. This shows broad support for official counter-terrorism efforts, although some question the current strategy.

Opinions are especially split on how the crisis is communicated. Some find the messaging vague or lacking in transparency. Others think it helps keep people alert without sparking panic.

The survey reveals deeper concerns. Even Togolese outside conflict zones report growing insecurity. The northern crisis appears to be fuelling nationwide anxiety.

Should Togo leave Ecowas?

Since tensions flared, Togo has been neutral. It has not openly condemned the Alliance of Sahel States countries and has maintained its membership of Ecowas. This careful stance reflects national sentiment – which leans towards support for the Alliance of Sahel States – while preserving Togo’s strategic and economic interests.

This approach isn’t new. It’s part of a long-standing Togolese tradition of balanced, pragmatic diplomacy. The nation has always pursued pragmatic and independent foreign policy that adapts to regional dynamics.

As west Africa’s geopolitical landscape shifts, Togo should:

• maintain open cooperative relations with both Ecowas and the Alliance of Sahel States

• preserve its strategic position as a logistics and trade hub for the region, particularly through the Port of Lomé

• strengthen its image as a diplomatic force for stability in west Africa.

Can Togo maintain its delicate balancing act?

Togo’s careful balancing act remains its safest bet. The truth is, no one knows what the future holds for the Alliance of Sahel States bloc. But this middle ground gives Togo strategic flexibility regardless of how regional politics evolve.

Togo’s position leaves it well-placed either way. If the Alliance of Sahel States countries rejoin Ecowas, Togo keeps its influence. If they don’t, it still benefits from its neutrality.

Ultimately, Togo should keep playing this diplomatic card. Its measured approach offers rare stability in a volatile region.

Koffi Améssou Adaba does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Togo’s citizens want to leave Ecowas – new survey suggests why – https://theconversation.com/togos-citizens-want-to-leave-ecowas-new-survey-suggests-why-256928

July 5, 2025

Nigerian children don’t imagine women as political leaders: what shapes their view

Source: – By Adebusola Okedele, Senior Lecturer, Political Science, Babcock University

A new ranking by UN Women and the Inter-Parliamentary Union puts Nigeria 179th out of 185 countries for the percentage of women in the national legislature.

Women currently make up only 3.9% of seats in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, three of the 108 current members are women. In the executive branch, women head eight of 45 (17.8%) of ministries.

This absence of women in prominent positions in politics subtly reinforces societal biases and moulds public opinion, which subconsciously excludes women from political leadership.

We are a group of researchers who have expertise in gender and African politics and childhood political socialisation. We have been researching the political socialisation of children in Nigeria for the past three years.

Our research in Ogun State reveals that children are internalising what they see on the political stage. We asked children aged 5 to 16 at 12 schools in Ogun State to imagine and draw a leader such as a president, governor, or member of a national or state assembly at work. Only 5% of 981 children drew a woman as a political leader.

Ninety-two percent of girls drew a man, compared to 98% of boys.

Why do so few children draw women as political leaders? Children absorb the power dynamics and gender roles they observe in political happenings, shaping their understanding of politics.

In democracies, a lack of women interested in politics, as well as running for and winning political office, matters. If women are absent in decision-making spaces, their concerns might not be considered. While men can represent women’s interests, women committed to change can draw on their experiences and those of women in their networks to bring new ideas to the table.

Women in authority in Nigeria

We conducted our study in the three senatorial districts of Ogun State, one of Nigeria’s 36 states. In Ogun State, the deputy governor, Noimot Salako-Oyedele, is a woman, and her picture is on many classroom walls.

The late anti-colonial activist and leader Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti was from Ogun State too. The presence of visible women leaders could encourage some children in the state to imagine and depict women as political leaders. Thus, it is possible that our sample of children were more likely to draw a woman than children in other states.

Six other states have women deputy governors: Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Ekiti, Kaduna, Plateau and Rivers States.

But women’s representation in state assemblies throughout the country is low. No woman has ever been elected to be a governor in Nigeria.

In our study, we asked children what jobs they would like to have in the future. In general, boys were more interested in jobs in politics (president, governor, local government chair) than girls were. For the specific job of president or governor, however, girls seemed to be just as interested as boys.

The children’s response isn’t specific to Nigeria. In a study conducted in 2017 and 2018 in the United States (where 19.3% of members of the House of Representatives at the time were women), only 13% of children drew a woman political leader.

Broader forces

Multiple factors hinder women’s representation in elected offices in Nigeria. These include political party practices that favour the recruitment and selection of men candidates, the high costs of running for office, as outlined in Ayisha Osori’s book Love Does Not Win Elections, and societal biases against women holding positions of political power.

Deeply entrenched societal biases add to the challenges. Cultural norms assign leadership roles to men and certain religious interpretations restrict women’s public participation.

The perception that women are more suited for domestic roles, or lack assertiveness, impedes their ability to garner support for political leadership.

Low numbers of women representatives also suggest there are systemic biases in the democratic electoral process.

Children pay attention

Recent research shows that when girls observe women in political power or running for political office, they are more engaged in politics later in life. This suggests that positive exposure to women in politics may have positive effects on girls’ political engagement. Negative exposure could have negative effects.

Take, for example, the “Natasha-Akpabio case” in Nigeria. Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan alleged that Senate president Godswill Akpabio had sexually harassed her. The Senate president denied the allegation. Akpoti-Uduaghan was suspended from her position by the Senate ethics committee for what it described as misconduct and disregard for the Senate standing orders.

Experiences like those may influence future generations’ understanding of gender equality in leadership. When young Nigerians observe powerful women facing harassment and retaliation for voicing their concerns, it may undermine the notion that women are equally capable of political authority.

Girls may internalise the idea that politics is a hostile space for women. For boys, seeing women leaders undermined might reinforce a sense of male dominance.

Policy solutions

Our finding that children largely see politics as a “man’s world” prompts reflection on societal and political biases. To address the under-representation of women in political leadership positions in Nigeria, it is important to invest in civic education programmes. Children should be helped to understand the significance of equitable political participation from an early age.

Campaigns should use different media platforms to challenge gender stereotypes in leadership.

Finally, enacting and enforcing legislated gender quotas across all levels of Nigerian government and within political parties is a crucial step to improve the representation of women in leadership positions.

Alice J. Kang received funding for the study from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Congress Fund and Research Council.

Jill S. Greenlee receives funding from Department of Women’s, Gender, & Sexuality Studies at Brandeis University and the
Norman Fund at Brandeis University.

Adebusola Okedele does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Nigerian children don’t imagine women as political leaders: what shapes their view – https://theconversation.com/nigerian-children-dont-imagine-women-as-political-leaders-what-shapes-their-view-256638

July 5, 2025

Beating malaria: what can be done with shrinking funds and rising threats

Source: – By Taneshka Kruger, UP ISMC: Project Manager and Coordinator, University of Pretoria

Healthcare in Africa faces a perfect storm: high rates of infectious diseases like malaria and HIV, a rise in non-communicable diseases, and dwindling foreign aid.

In 2021, nearly half of the sub-Saharan African countries relied on external financing for more than a third of their health expenditure. But donor fatigue and competing global priorities, such as climate change and geopolitical instability, have placed malaria control programmes under immense pressure. These funding gaps now threaten hard-won progress and ultimately malaria eradication.

The continent’s healthcare funding crisis isn’t new. But its consequences are becoming more severe. As financial contributions shrink, Africa’s ability to respond to deadly diseases like malaria is being tested like never before.

Malaria remains one of the world’s most pressing public health threats. According to the World Health Organization there were an estimated 263 million malaria cases and 597,000 deaths globally in 2023 – an increase of 11 million cases from the previous year.

The WHO African region bore the brunt, with 94% of cases and 95% of deaths. It is now estimated that a child under the age of five dies roughly every 90 seconds due to malaria.

Yet, malaria control efforts since 2000 have averted over 2 billion cases and saved nearly 13 million lives globally. Breakthroughs in diagnostics, treatment and prevention have been critical to this progress. They include insecticide-treated nets, rapid diagnostic tests, artemisinin-based combination therapies (drug combinations to prevent resistance) and malaria vaccines.

Since 2017, the progress has been flat. If the funding gap widens, the risk is not just stagnation; it’s backsliding. Several emerging threats such as climate change and funding shortfalls could undo the gains of the early 2000s to mid-2010s.

New challenges

Resistance to drugs and insecticides, and strains of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum that standard
diagnostics can’t detect, have emerged as challenges. There have also been changes in mosquito behaviour, with vectors increasingly biting outdoors, making bed nets less effective.

Climate change is shifting malaria transmission patterns. And the invasive Asian mosquito species Anopheles stephensi is spreading across Africa, particularly in urban areas.

Add to this the persistent issue of cross-border transmission, and growing funding shortfalls and aid cuts, and it’s clear that the fight against malaria is at a critical point.

As the world observes World Malaria Day 2025 under the theme “Malaria ends with us: reinvest, reimagine, reignite”, the call to action is urgent. Africa must lead the charge against malaria through renewed investment, bold innovation, and revitalised political will.

Reinvest: Prevention is the most cost-effective intervention

We – researchers, policymakers, health workers and communities – need to think smarter about funding. The economic logic of prevention is simple. It’s far cheaper to prevent malaria than to treat it. The total cost of procuring and delivering long-lasting insecticidal nets typically ranges between US$4 and US$7 each and the nets protect families for years. In contrast, treating a single case of severe malaria may cost hundreds of dollars and involve hospitalisation.

In high-burden countries, malaria can consume up to 40% of public health spending.

In Tanzania, for instance, malaria contributes to 30% of the country’s total disease burden. The broader economic toll – lost productivity, work and school absenteeism, and healthcare costs – is staggering. Prevention through long-lasting insecticidal nets, chemoprevention and health education isn’t only humane; it’s fiscally responsible.

Reimagine: New tools, local solutions

We cannot fight tomorrow’s malaria with yesterday’s tools. Resistance, climate-driven shifts in transmission, and urbanisation are changing malaria’s patterns.

This is why re-imagining our approach is urgent.

African countries must scale up innovations like the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine and next-generation mosquito nets. But more importantly, they must build their own capacity to develop, test and produce these tools.

This requires investing in research and development, regional regulatory harmonisation, and local manufacturing.

There is also a need to build leadership capacity within malaria control programmes to manage this adaptive disease with agility and evidence-based decision-making.

Reignite: Community and collaboration matters

Reigniting the malaria fight means shifting power to those on the frontlines. Community health workers remain one of Africa’s greatest untapped resources. Already delivering malaria testing, treatment and health education in remote areas, they can also be trained to manage other health challenges.

Integrating malaria prevention into broader community health services makes sense. It builds resilience, reduces duplication, and ensures continuity even when external funding fluctuates.

Every malaria intervention delivered by a trusted, local health worker is a step towards community ownership of health.

Strengthened collaboration between partners, governments, cross-border nations, and local communities is also needed.

The cost of inaction is unaffordable

Africa’s malaria challenge is part of a deeper health systems crisis. By 2030, the continent will require an additional US$371 billion annually to deliver basic primary healthcare – about US$58 per person.

For malaria in 2023 alone, US$8.3 billion was required to meet global control and elimination targets, yet only US$4 billion was mobilised. This gap has grown consistently, increasing from US$2.6 billion in 2019 to US$4.3 billion in 2023.

The shortfall has led to major gaps in the coverage of essential malaria interventions.

The solution does not lie in simply spending more, but in spending smarter by focusing on prevention, building local innovation, and strengthening primary healthcare systems.

The responsibility is collective. African governments must invest boldly and reform policies to prioritise prevention.

Global partners must support without dominating. And communities must be empowered to take ownership of their health.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Beating malaria: what can be done with shrinking funds and rising threats – https://theconversation.com/beating-malaria-what-can-be-done-with-shrinking-funds-and-rising-threats-255126

July 5, 2025

Malaria scorecard: battles have been won and advances made, but the war isn’t over

Source: – By Shüné Oliver, Medical scientist, National Institute for Communicable Diseases

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the brunt of malaria cases in the world. In this region 11 countries account for two-thirds of the global burden.

World Malaria Day is marked on 25 April. What progress has been made against the disease, where are the gaps and what’s being done to plug them?

As scientists who research malaria in Africa, we believe that the continent can defeat the disease. New, effective tools have been added to the malaria toolbox.

Researchers and malaria programmes, however, must strengthen collaborations. This will ensure the limited resources are used in ways that make the most impact.

The numbers

Some progress has been made, but in some cases there have been reverses.

Between 2000 and 2015 there was an 18% reduction in new cases from 262 million in 2000 to 214 million in 2015. Since then, progress has stalled.
The World Health Organization estimates that approximately 2.2 billion cases have been prevented between 2000 and 2023. Additionally, 12.7 million deaths have been avoided. In 2025, 45 countries are certified as malaria free. Only nine of those countries are in Africa. These include Egypt, Seychelles and Lesotho.
The global target set by the WHO was to reduce new cases by 75% compared to cases in 2015. Africa should have reported approximately 47,000 cases in 2023. Instead there were 246 million.
Almost every African country with ongoing malaria transmission experienced an increase in malaria cases in 2023. Exceptions to this were Rwanda and Liberia.

So why is progress stagnating and in many cases reversing?

The setbacks

Effective malaria control is extremely challenging. Malaria parasite and mosquito populations evolve rapidly. This makes them difficult to control.

Africa is home to malaria mosquitoes that prefer biting humans to other animals. These mosquitoes have also adapted to avoid insecticide-treated surfaces.

It has been shown in South Africa that mosquitoes may feed on people inside their homes, but will avoid resting on the sprayed walls.

Mosquitoes have also developed mechanisms to resist the effects of insecticides. Malaria vector resistance to certain insecticides used in malaria control is widespread in endemic areas. Resistance levels vary around Africa.

Resistance to the pyrethroid class is most common. Organophosphate resistance is rare, but present in west Africa. As mosquitoes become resistant to the chemicals used for mosquito control, both the spraying of houses and insecticide treated nets become less effective. However, in regions with high malaria cases, nets still provide physical protection despite resistance.

An additional challenge is that malaria parasites continue to develop resistance to anti-malarial drugs. In 2007 the first evidence began to emerge in south-east Asia that parasites were developing resistance to artemisinins. These are key drugs in the fight against malaria.

Recently this has been shown to be happening in some African countries too. Artemisinin resistance has been confirmed in Eritrea, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. Molecular markers of artemisinin resistance were recently detected in parasites from Namibia and Zambia.

Malaria parasites have also developed mutations that prevent them from being being detected by the most widely used rapid diagnostic test in Africa.

Countries in the Horn of Africa, where parasites with these mutations are common, have changed the malaria rapid diagnostic tests used to ensure early diagnosis.

The progress

Nevertheless, the fight against malaria has been strengthened by novel control strategies.

Firstly, after more than 30 years of research, two malaria vaccines – RTS,S and R21 – have finally been approved by the WHO. These are being deployed in 19 African countries.

These vaccines have reduced disease cases and deaths in the high-risk under-five-years-old age group. They have reduced cases of severe malaria by approximately 30% and deaths by 17%.

Secondly, effectiveness of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets has been improved.

New insecticides have been approved for use. Chemical components that help to manage resistance have also been included in the nets.

Thirdly, novel tools are showing promise. One option is attractive toxic sugar baits. This is because sugar is what mosquitoes naturally eat. Biocontrol by altering the native gut bacteria of mosquitoes may also prove effective.

Fourthly, reducing mosquito populations by releasing sterilised male or genetically modified mosquitoes into wild mosquito populations is also showing promise. Trials are currently happening in Burkina Faso. Genetically sterilised males have been released on a small scale. This strategy has shown promise in reducing the population.

Fifthly, two new antimalarials are expected to be available in the next year or two. Artemisinin-based combination therapies are standard treatment for malaria. An improvement to this is triple artemisinin-based combination therapy. This is a combination of this drug with an additional antimalarial. Studies in Africa and Asia have shown these triple combinations to be very effective in controlling malaria.

The second new antimalarial is the first non-artemisinin-based drug to be developed in over 20 years. Ganaplacide-lumefantrine has been shown to be effective in young children. Once available, it can to be used to treat parasites that are resistant to artemisinin. This is because it has a completely different mechanism of action.

The end game

It has been several years since the malaria control toolbox has been strengthened with novel tools and strategies that target both the vector and the parasite. This makes it an ideal time to double down in the fight against this deadly disease.

In 2020, the WHO identified 25 countries with the potential to stop malaria transmission within their borders by 2025. While none of these countries eliminated malaria, some have made significant progress. Costa Rica and Nepal reported fewer than 100 cases. Timor-Leste reported only one case in recent years.

Three southern African countries are included in this group: Botswana, Eswatini and South Africa. Unfortunately, all these countries showed increases in cases in 2023.

With the new tools, these and other countries can eliminate malaria, getting us closer to the dream of a malaria-free world.

Shüné Oliver receives funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa and the South African Medical Research Council. She is associated with both the National Institute for Communicable Diseases and the Wits Research Institte for Malaria.

Jaishree Raman receives funding from the Gates Foundation, Global Fund, Wellcome Trust, National Research Foundation, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, South African Medical Research Council, and the Research Trust. She is affiliated with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, the Wits Institute for Malaria Research, University of Witwatersrand, and the Institute for Sustainable Malaria Control, University of Pretoria.

– ref. Malaria scorecard: battles have been won and advances made, but the war isn’t over – https://theconversation.com/malaria-scorecard-battles-have-been-won-and-advances-made-but-the-war-isnt-over-255230

July 5, 2025

African women at higher risk of pre-eclampsia – a dangerous pregnancy complication

Source: – By Annettee Nakimuli, Associate Professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Makerere University

Pre-eclampsia is a danger to pregnant women. It’s a complication characterised by high blood pressure and organ damage, arising during the second half of pregnancy, in labour or in the first week after delivery.

It plays a major role in about 16% of the deaths of pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa.

And it’s on the rise: between 2010 and 2018, the incidence of pre-eclampsia in Africa jumped by around 20%.

Pre-eclampsia usually occurs in young mothers during a first pregnancy. Girls under the age of 18 years are most at risk. The probability that a 15-year-old girl will die from complications of pregnancy is one in 150 in developing countries, versus one in 3,800 in developed countries, according to the World Health Organization.

Not only does pre-eclampsia pose a serious health threat to women, it also harms babies. It contributes to stillbirth, preterm birth and low birth weight.

Yet we still do not know enough about pre-eclampsia. This gap has driven my research into the disease.

I conducted the first genetic case-control study on pre-eclampsia among African women in comparison to European women over a decade ago for my PhD research.

My work revealed that both African and European populations have a gene (KIR AA genotype) that increases the chance of pre-eclampsia. However, African women are at greater risk of pre-eclampsia than other racial groups. This is because they’re more at risk of carrying a fetus with a C2-type HLA-C gene from the father. African populations have a higher frequency of this gene, which raises the likelihood of risky mother-fetus combinations.

An additional finding from my research is that genetic protection from pre-eclampsia works differently across populations – and African populations carry unique protective genes. However, even with these additional protections, African women are at greater risk of developing severe pre-eclampsia due to the other challenges, like access to healthcare and socio-economic constraints.

There’s inequality in the treatment of the condition too. In my experience, wealthier and better-educated African women often receive the necessary diagnosis and treatment. Poorer and less-educated African women too often do not.

Pre-eclampsia research, especially in Africa, requires a lot more funding, as does broader research related to the maternal health of African women.

Pre-eclampsia in Uganda

Around 287,000 women worldwide die during pregnancy and childbirth every year. Shockingly, 70% of these are African women.

Most of these deaths are preventable. For example, around 10% are the result of high blood pressure-related conditions during pregnancy.

Uganda’s Ministry of Health recorded in 2023 that out of 1,276 maternal deaths reported, 16% were associated with high blood pressure.

Hospitals are being overwhelmed by patients with the illness. For example, Kawempe National Referral Hospital in Kampala receives around 150 patients with the condition every month. It has set up a special ward to treat them.

The maternal mortality rate (death due to complications from pregnancy or childbirth) in Uganda is 284 per 100,000 live births. In Australia it is 2.94. The neonatal mortality rate (death during the first 28 completed days of life) is 19 per 1,000 live births in Uganda against 2.37 in Australia. Infant mortality (death before a child turns one) is 31 per 1,000 live births in Uganda versus 3.7 in Australia, according to the WHO’s Global Health Observatory.

This stark contrast highlights an enormous gap in care that the two countries’ pregnant mothers and babies receive.

Part of the problem in Uganda, as in many developing countries, is persistent challenges in healthcare infrastructure. There are shortages of healthcare workers, medical supplies and facilities, particularly in the rural areas.

Early detection is key

As a clinician and researcher working at the centre of Uganda’s healthcare system, I witness mothers arriving at hospitals already in a critical condition, with limited options to treat the complications associated with pre-eclampsia. It is heartbreaking.

The condition is both preventable and treatable if caught early. My research focuses on identifying biological signs of the likelihood of complications during pregnancy, using data analysis informed by Artificial Intelligence.

These predictive biomarkers, as they are called, enable us to categorise patients based on their risk levels and identify those most likely to benefit from specific treatments or preventive measures.

The precise causes of pre-eclampsia are not certain, but factors beyond genetics are thought to be problems with the immune system and inadequate development of the placenta. But much of what researchers know comes from work done in high-income countries, often with a limited sample size of African women.

Consequently, the findings may not apply directly to the genetics of sub-Saharan African women. My research addresses this knowledge gap.

Building on my findings about genetic determinants, I am leading a research team at Makerere University to design interventions tailored to specific prevention and treatment strategies for African populations.

Raising pre-eclampsia awareness

Research alone is not enough. There is an urgent need to bridge the gap between research and practice.

During my fieldwork, I have witnessed first-hand how many Ugandan women are not aware of pre-eclampsia’s warning signs and miss out on vital prenatal care. These warning signs often include headache, disturbances with vision, upper pain in the right side of the abdomen and swelling of the legs.

But we can develop screening algorithms so that healthcare professionals can rapidly diagnose women at higher risk early in their pregnancy. Timely intervention, including specific treatment and plans for delivery, would reduce the risk of adverse outcomes for both mother and baby.

In my capacity as a national pre-eclampsia champion appointed by Uganda’s Ministry of Health, I am spearheading initiatives to raise awareness and improve access to maternal healthcare services.

Through community outreach programmes and educational campaigns, we want to empower all women, rich and poor, with knowledge about the condition and encourage them to seek medical assistance at an early stage.

More resources must be allocated to genetics research to realise our goals of prevention, early detection, diagnosis and treatment of pre-eclampsia and its associated complications.

This investment will drive the development of predictive technology for precise diagnosis, and enable timely intervention for at-risk mothers.

Moreover, investigating the genetic roots of pre-eclampsia could lead to novel therapies that reduce the need for costly medical procedures or prolonged care for those affected.

This would reduce the strain on already overburdened African healthcare systems.

Annettee Nakimuli receives funding from the Gates Foundation, GSK and the Royal Society.

– ref. African women at higher risk of pre-eclampsia – a dangerous pregnancy complication – https://theconversation.com/african-women-at-higher-risk-of-pre-eclampsia-a-dangerous-pregnancy-complication-249222

July 5, 2025

Africa’s healthcare funding crisis: 3 strategies to manage deadly diseases

Source: – By Francisca Mutapi, Professor in Global Health Infection and Immunity. and co-Director of the Global Health Academy, University of Edinburgh

The increasing trend of reducing foreign aid to Africa is forcing the continent to reassess its approach to healthcare delivery.

African countries face a major challenge of dealing with high rates of communicable diseases, such as malaria and HIV/Aids, and rising levels of non-communicable diseases. But the continent’s health systems don’t have the resources to provide accessible and affordable healthcare to address these challenges.

Historically, aid has played a critical role in supporting African health systems. It has funded key areas, including medical research, treatment programmes, healthcare infrastructure and workforce salaries. In 2021, half of sub-Saharan Africa’s countries relied on external financing for more than one-third of their health expenditures.

As aid dwindles, a stark reality emerges: many African governments are unable to achieve universal health coverage or address rising healthcare costs.

The reduction in aid restricts healthcare services and threatens to reverse decades of health progress on the continent. A fundamental shift in healthcare strategy is necessary to address this crisis.

The well-known maxim that “prevention is better than cure” holds not just for health outcomes but also for economic efficiency. It’s much more affordable to prevent diseases than it is to treat them.

As an infectious diseases specialist, I have seen how preventable diseases can put a financial burden on health systems and households.

For instance, each year, there are global economic losses of over US$33 billion due to neglected tropical diseases. Many conditions, such as lymphatic filariasis, often require lifelong care. This places a heavy burden on families and stretches national healthcare systems to their limits.

African nations can cut healthcare costs through disease prevention. This often requires fewer specialist health workers and less expensive interventions.

To navigate financial constraints, African nations must rethink and redesign their healthcare systems.

Three key areas where cost-effective, preventive strategies can work are: improving water, sanitation, and hygiene; expanding vaccination programmes; and making non-communicable disease prevention part of community health services.

A shift in healthcare delivery

Improving water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure

Many diseases prevalent in Africa are transmitted through contact with contaminated water and soil. Investing in safe water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure is an opportunity. This alone can prevent a host of illnesses such as parasitic worms and diarrhoeal diseases. It can also improve infection control and strengthen epidemic and pandemic disease control.

Currently, WASH coverage in Africa remains inadequate. Millions are vulnerable to preventable illnesses. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2020 alone, about 510,000 deaths in Africa could have been prevented with improved water and sanitation. Of these, 377,000 deaths were caused by diarrhoeal diseases.

Unsafe WASH conditions also contribute to secondary health issues, such as under-nutrition and parasitic infections. Around 14% of acute respiratory infections and 10% of the undernutrition disease burden – such as stunting – are linked to unsafe WASH conditions.

By investing in functional WASH infrastructure, African governments can significantly reduce the incidence of these diseases. This will lead to lower healthcare costs and improved public health outcomes.

Local production of relevant vaccines

Vaccination is one of the most cost-effective health interventions available for preventing infection. Immunisation efforts save over four million lives every year across the continent.

There is an urgent need for vaccines against diseases prevalent in Africa whose current control is heavily reliant on aid. Neglected tropical diseases are among them.

Vaccines can also prevent some non-communicable diseases. A prime example is the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, which can prevent up to 85% of cervical cancer cases in Africa.

HPV vaccination is also more cost-effective than treating cervical cancer. In some African countries, the cost per vaccine dose averages just under US$20. Treatment costs can reach up to US$2,500 per patient, as seen in Tanzania.

It is vital to invest in a comprehensive vaccine ecosystem. This includes strengthening local research and building innovation hubs. Regulatory bodies across the continent must also be harmonised and markets created to attract vaccine investment.

Integrating disease prevention into community healthcare services

Historically, African healthcare systems were designed to address communicable diseases, such as tuberculosis and HIV. This left them ill-equipped to handle the rising burden of non-communicable diseases, such as type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. One cost-effective approach is to integrate the prevention and management of these diseases into existing community health programmes.

Community health workers currently provide low-cost interventions for health issues such as pneumonia and malaria. They can be trained to address non-communicable diseases as well.

In some countries, community health workers are already filling the service gap. Getting them more involved in prevention strategies will strengthen primary healthcare services in Africa. This investment will ultimately reduce the long-term financial burden of treating chronic diseases.

A treatment-over-prevention approach will not be affordable

Current estimates suggest that by 2030, an additional US$371 billion per year – roughly US$58 per person – will be required to provide basic primary healthcare services across Africa.

Adding to the challenge is the rising global cost of healthcare, projected to increase by 10.4% this year alone. This marks the third consecutive year of escalating costs. For Africa, costs also come from population growth and the rising burden of non-communicable diseases.

By shifting focus from treatment to prevention, African nations can make healthcare accessible, equitable and financially sustainable despite the decline in foreign aid.

Francisca Mutapi is affiliated with Uniting to Combat NTDs

– ref. Africa’s healthcare funding crisis: 3 strategies to manage deadly diseases – https://theconversation.com/africas-healthcare-funding-crisis-3-strategies-to-manage-deadly-diseases-253644

July 5, 2025

Africa’s traditional fermented foods – and why we should keep consuming them

Source: – By Florence Malongane, Senior lecturer, University of South Africa

Fermentation is a process where microorganisms like bacteria and yeast work together to break down complex carbohydrates and protein into simpler, more digestible forms.

The fermentation process not only extends the shelf life of food but also enhances its nutritional content. During fermentation, beneficial microorganisms produce essential vitamins and minerals.

Fermented foods have many benefits and have been shown to reduce inflammation and infections.

As nutrition researchers we undertook an in-depth assessment of fermented African foods and their potential to improve human health cost-effectively.

By gaining a deeper understanding of the diverse microbiomes present in various fermented indigenous African foods, we aim to enhance human health through targeted dietary interventions.

Going back in history

Fermentation as a preservation method can be traced back a long way.

In the Middle East, between 1,000 and 15,000 years ago, people moved from foraging and hunting to organised food cultivation and production.

Evidence of the alcoholic fermentation of barley into beer and grapes into wine dates back to between 2000 and 4000 BC.

In the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent milk was fermented to create yoghurt and other sweet and savoury fermented milks. White cabbage pickles and fermented olives are very popular in the Middle East.

In India and the Philippines, rice flour was fermented to produce products like noodles.

Africa’s traditions

In Africa, fermented foods hold great cultural significance and health benefits, yet this topic has not been thoroughly researched.

Foods are mostly fermented at home and trends vary by region.

The primary ingredients in African fermented foods are mainly cereals, tubers and milk.

Most of the fermented foods are plants that grow on their own in the wild and are often considered weeds in cropped and cultivated land. These include amaranths, Bidens pilosa, cleome and Corchorus species. The increased availability of African indigenous foods could expand the range of commercially available fermented African foods.

While some products like marula beer have entered the commercial market, the overall consumption of fermented foods among Africans has declined.

This drop is largely due to the widespread availability of refrigeration systems and a growing loss of interest in traditional African foods.

Improving health in Africa

Fermented root plants such as cassava and yam have been shown to decrease creatinine levels, which may indicate enhanced renal function and kidney health. This suggests that the fermentation process not only enriches these root plants with probiotics, but also promotes better physiological responses in the body.

Among the diverse array of fruits native to Africa, baobab and marula are the most popular fermented fruits. Fermenting them enhances their protein and fibre content. Consuming fermented baobab fruits has been shown to reduce the activity of α-amylase, an enzyme that may have implications for regulating blood sugar.

Millet, maize, African rice and sorghum are the most fermented grains in Africa. When these foods are fermented, they can help reduce blood glucose levels, serum triglycerides and cholesterol.

Amahewu is a traditional beverage produced through the fermentation of sorghum or maize, mostly enjoyed in South Africa and Zimbabwe for its tangy flavour and smooth texture.

In Kenya, a similar fermented cereal beverage known as uji is made of millet and flavoured with milk, adding to its rich and nutritious profile.

Ghana boasts its own version called akasa, which is prepared from a combination of sorghum, corn and millet and known for its unique taste and cultural significance.

In Sudan, the beverage referred to as abreh varies in preparation but shares the same essence of fermentation, while in Nigeria, ogi is another fermented cereal paste, from similar small grains like sorghum and millet, which produce a creamy beverage.

Fermenting sorghum and millet provides essential nutrients and supports metabolic health and gut function.

In Nigeria, fermented cereal beverages are widely used to control diarrhoea in young children.

Sour milk is the most fermented food in Africa, celebrated for its rich flavour and numerous health benefits.

During the fermentation process, bacteria convert the milk sugar, called lactose, into lactic acid.

Kulenaoto, a traditional fermented milk drink enjoyed in Kenya, is known for its creamy texture and slightly tangy flavour. South Africa produces sour milk known as amasi. Nigeria and Togo share a common fermented dairy product known as wara, which is made from fermented soybeans and is often served as a snack.

In Ghana, nyamie is a rich, thick yogurt-like product. In Cameroon, pendidam is a unique fermented milk product that is cherished for its distinctive taste and nutritional benefits, making it a staple in many households.

Regular consumption of fermented sour milk can play a significant role in weight management, decreasing visceral (gut) fat, which is a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases.

Moreover, fermented milk offers valuable protection against folate deficiency.

Looking forward

African fermented foods could be the easiest and least expensive way of introducing beneficial microbes to the gastrointestinal tract, replacing expensive pharmaceutical probiotics.

These processes should be encouraged, and younger generations need to be exposed to the benefits of these traditions.

Vanishing plants could be preserved and distributed through seed banks.

The tradition of fermentation should be encouraged at both household and commercial levels to promote overall health.

– ref. Africa’s traditional fermented foods – and why we should keep consuming them – https://theconversation.com/africas-traditional-fermented-foods-and-why-we-should-keep-consuming-them-243287

July 5, 2025

Paper mills: the ‘cartel-like’ companies behind fraudulent scientific journals

Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Rizqy Amelia Zein, Lecturer in Social Psychology, Universitas Airlangga

Science and Nature, two leading science journals, have revealed a growing problem: an alarming rise in fraudulent research papers produced by shady paper mill companies. This wave of fake studies is creating a major headache for the academic world, putting the integrity of global academic research at risk.

Paper mill companies offer authorship services to researchers, academics, and students who want their names listed as an author of a scientific article published in reputable scientific journals.

By paying around €180 to €5000 (approximately US$197 – $5472), a person can have their name listed as the author of research paper, without having to painstakingly do research and write the results. No doubt, some experts refer to these paper mills as illegal and criminal organizations.

A 2023 research highlights a dramatic increase in fraudulent scientific articles traced back to paper mills. In just five years, the numbers of retractions soared jumped from 10 in 2019 to 2,099 in 2023.

Paper mills have also extremely overwhelmed major scientific journal publishers. Hindawi and Wiley, publishers of open access journals in the UK, for example, retracted around 1,200 paper mill articles in 2023. SAGE, a global publisher of books, journals and academic library resources and Elsevier, a scholarly publisher in the Netherlands also retracted hundreds of paper mill articles in 2022.

Paper mills are found operating in countries whose research policies incentivise researchers to produce as many scientific articles as possible, such as China, Russia, India and Iran.

However, their customer profile is quite diverse, from both developed and developing countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Germany, and the United States (US).

Based on research data and investigative journalist reports from the last five years, I summarise how these paper mills operate and how to detect them.

The paper mill playbook: tactics and oddities

1. Problematic articles

Paper mills generally manipulate the process of publishing scientific articles. These articles usually plagiarise other published articles, contain false and stolen data, or include engineered and duplicated images.

They also offer to rewrite scientific articles using generative artificial intelligence tools, such as ChatGPT and Quillbot, or to translate published articles from other languages into English.

2. A promised path to publication

In some cases, paper mills offer authorship slots before an article is accepted for publication.

In other cases, they offer authorship slots after the article is ready to be published by the journal.

Therefore, it is not uncommon for paper mills to sell authorship slots with a guarantee that the article will definitely be published. In fact, according to the conventions generally accepted in the academic community, no well-run journal can give such a guarantee.

Publishing decisions are normally made only after editors have considered the feedback from peer reviewers. This means, there is no possibility for a manuscript to secure acceptance before passing the peer review process.

3. Fake reviews and corrupt deals

Paper mills also offer a wide range of additional services. For example, they offer fake peer review services to convince potential buyers that the offered articles have passed rigorous review.

To smooth the way for their operations, some paper mills even operate like a cartel, bribing rogue journal editors to ensure publication. A 2024 investigation by a Science journalist revealed that some scientific journal editors were offered as much as $20,000 to cooperate with these schemes. This investigation resulted in more than 30 editors of reputable international journals identified as involved in paper mill activities.

4. Unusual collaboration patterns

One of the peculiarities of paper mill articles is its strange mix of authors. An article on the activity of ground beetles attacking crops in Kazakhstan, for example, is written by authors who are neither affiliated with institutions in Kazakhstan nor experts in insects or agriculture. The authors’ backgrounds are suspiciously heterogeneous, ranging from anaesthesia, dentistry, to biomedical engineering.

5. Anonymous co-authors

Prospective customers of paper mill services usually have to agree to the rules of confidentiality. By agreeing to this rule, buyers have no idea which journal their article will target or who their co-authors will be. Often, the authors listed on the same paper don’t even know each other.

Spotting the red flags: how to detect paper mills articles

Detecting scientific articles produced by paper mills often begins with analyzing retraction patterns carried out by journals.

This can be done in two ways: by tracking post-publication peer reviews on platforms like PubPeer, or by checking the Retraction Watch database, a website that documents retractions of problematic scientific articles.

However, journals rarely state outright that a retraction is due to paper mill fraud. Instead, articles are typically pulled for reasons like improper inclusion of the name and order of authors, inclusion of many irrelevant citations or references, plagiarism, or inclusion of manipulated or duplicated images.

The proportion of scientific articles retracted for being associated with paper mills is much smaller than the estimated total number of paper mill articles currently in circulation.

Retraction Watch data, as of May 2024, only recorded 7,275 retractions of articles related to the paper mill out of a total of 44,000 retractions recorded. In fact, it is estimated that up to 400,000 paper mill articles have infiltrated scientific literature over the past two decades.

Despite significant efforts from publishers and the academic community through organizations such as United2Act, a global alliance initiated by Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and STM, these attempts are barely enough.

How paper mills hurt the public

The UK Research Integrity Office—an independent UK charity that offers support to the public, researchers and organisations to promote good academic research practice—estimates that the paper mill industry has gained around $10 million globally.

For example, a Russian paper mill could earn $6.5 million if they sold all the authorship of scientific articles it produced from 2019 to 2021.

In Indonesia, this financial loss directly impacts the public. Public universities rely on the state budget, funded largely by taxpayers, and tuition fees from students to cover operational expenses, including research grants and publication incentives.

Though the exact financial toll of these paper mills is hard to pin down, it is clear that the public are footing the bill for fraudulent research practices, siphoning resources away from enuin academic advancements.

Rizqy Amelia Zein tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.

– ref. Paper mills: the ‘cartel-like’ companies behind fraudulent scientific journals – https://theconversation.com/paper-mills-the-cartel-like-companies-behind-fraudulent-scientific-journals-230124

July 5, 2025

Indonesian social forestry often excludes women from decisions, risking greater inequality

Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Tessa Toumbourou, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Environmental Social Science, The University of Melbourne

Our analysis of Indonesia’s social forestry permits shows that women remain underrepresented in forest management bodies despite efforts to boost their presence, leaving them out of decisions about their forests.

Social forestry redistributes forest management rights to local communities to advance sustainability and local livelihoods. In 2021, the country revised its social forestry regulations to allow one family representative to participate in social forestry management bodies, ‘giving equal opportunity to both men and women.’

However, our analysis of 400 most recent social forestry permit documents, combined with extended, multi-method field research at four sites, shows that women are often excluded from management bodies but are more involved in social forestry business groups (Kelompok Usaha Perhutanan Sosial or KUPS). These groups focus on the processing and sale of forest products.

This low level of participation in management excludes women from decisions about who receives benefits such as land for cultivation, seedlings, equipment, extension training, and technical information provided by the government and NGOs. The absence of women’s presence may deepen local inequalities and hamper effective forest management.

Gender gaps in social forestry

We reviewed the 400 most recent decree letters issued in 2024 that granted forestry management rights. These included 100 permits each for the managements of Village Forests (Hutan Desa) and Community Forests (Hutan Kemasyarakatan) and their respective KUPS (Table 1). Village Forests are rights collectively held and managed by village administrations, while Community Forests are issued to specific farmer or community groups.

Our analysis found that across Indonesia women are often underrepresented in management groups. On average, only 19.54% of members in Village Forest’s management bodies were women, with participation ranging from none to 80%. This number was even lower in Community Forests, averaging 13.95% women, with some groups having no female members and others up to 56.52%.

However, the available data often lacked details about gender in KUPS-related decrees. Only 19 of 100 Village Forests’ KUPS decrees and 23 of 100 Community Forests’ KUPS decrees included this information.

When gender data was included, women were more involved in KUPS of Village Forests, with an average of 46.32% participation. In contrast, their participation in Community Forests’ KUPS was just 13.06%.

These numbers show that progress in gender representation in Indonesia’s social forestry is mixed. While women are more active in economic activities linked to KUPS, they are still sidelined in formal management roles and decision-making.

Understanding uneven participation

Our field research also highlighted how women and men are participating in, and deriving benefits from, social forestry in Indonesia, while exploring factors influencing women’s (and men’s) involvement.

We focused on four social forestry sites — two Village Forests (Sintang; West Kalimantan province, and Muara Enim; South Sumatra province) and two Community Forests (Gunungkidul; Special Region of Yogyakarta, and Enrekang; South Sulawesi province). We selected sites that reflect different levels of women’s participation.

Table 2 highlights a disparity: while women actively engage in forest land use — such as collecting and processing non-timber forest products and cultivating social forestry land — in two sites (Enrekang and Muara Enim) they are not involved in management bodies where decisions about land use, forest resources and benefit distribution are made.

For example, Masna (pseudonym), a farmer and forest user from Enrekang, shared that her involvement in her village’s forest management body (Kelompok Tani Hutan) was limited to preparing snacks while men made decisions.

Why does this happen?

Deeply rooted gender norms significantly limit women’s involvement in social forestry in some sites. These norms often designate unpaid household and care-giving duties to women, positioning men as the primary decision-makers. This affects women’s confidence and participation in village meetings, where forest management decisions are made reduce women’s participation.

Our findings align with earlier studies showing how gender roles, influenced by discourse promoted by the New Order regime, continue to shape these practices of recognising men as breadwinners and landowners, reinforcing their dominance in formal discussions and decision-making bodies.

Although there are no educational requirements for joining social forestry, research shows that those with more education tend to have more influence. In our study, women in social forestry households averaged fewer years of education (6.6 years) compared to men (8.1 years). Lower education levels, socio-economic challenges, and low confidence in public forums, where education often boosts credibility, can further exclude women.

Geographic barriers such as remote forest locations, rough terrain, and poor roads also hinder women’s participation, making travel difficult and limiting their ability to be involved.

Assistance helps, as do local women leaders

In the Sintang and Gunungkidul sites, women have taken on greater roles in forest management bodies.

In Sintang, support from the Indonesian NGO PUPUK (Association for the Improvement of Small Business) significantly boosted women’s participation in the village forest management body. PUPUK facilitated discussions, provided training at convenient times for women, and encouraged male leaders to back greater female involvement. The number of female members increased from just one in 2018 to 12 women and nine men in a newly formed management body in 2022.

The social forestry group in Gunungkidul – initially a male-dominated, government-led reforestation project – evolved into a community-driven initiative with strong female leadership. Support from both government and NGOs enabled women to take more active roles in forestry and agriculture, especially as many men (and some women) left to seek work elsewhere.

A university-educated woman now leads this group and has inspired younger women to join forest management and KUPS activities. These include producing traditional herbal drinks (wedang uwuh) and making snacks from taro, cassava, and arrowroot grown on forest land.

Across the study sites, women involved in KUPS have developed skills in forest management, financial planning, product processing, and marketing, earning modest incomes. These activities have also shifted gender roles. For example, in Sintang, when Mirna (pseudonym) became head of the KUPS, her husband started taking on domestic chores like cooking and childcare to support her work.

What’s next?

Tackling gender disparities in social forestry requires targeted policies to ensure women’s voices, especially from marginalised groups, are heard in decision-making processes that affect their livelihoods and access to resources.

Introducing quotas or affirmative measures for forest management bodies can help close the gender gap and ensure more equitable benefit distribution. Evidence from other Global South regions suggests that at least 30% female representation in forest management bodies is necessary for meaningful participation, enabling women to influence decisions more effectively.

Inclusive governance also depends on fair representation of different ethnic and socio-economic groups, particularly poorer households. When disadvantaged groups are poorly represented, the distribution of benefits suffers, limiting the equitable flow of resources and opportunities.

Partnerships with NGOs and civil society groups skilled in addressing gender differences can empower women and marginalized men with the skills and confidence needed to engage in decision-making bodies.

Creating safe spaces is also vital. This includes holding gender-specific discussions in local languages at times that fit with both women’s and men’s schedules.

The government must also commit to regularly monitoring women’s participation by collecting and publishing accurate gender-disaggregated data, specific to each site and region.

A decree issued by Ministry of Environment and Forestry in August introduces a policy shift that allows individuals — not just groups — to apply for social forestry. This could boost women’s participation, provided targeted support helps them step into leadership roles. Without this backing, the risk remains that social forestry will continue to be dominated by elite men.

Rahpriyanto Alam Surya Putra, the director of The Asia Foundation’s Environmental Governance program in Indonesia, and Ike Sulistiowati, Director of PUPUK Indonesia, contributed to this study.

Tessa Toumbourou received funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade through KONEKSI (Knowledge Partnership Platform Australia-Indonesia). The views expressed in this publication do not represent the views of the Australian Government.

Andrea received funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade through KONEKSI (Knowledge Partnership Platform Australia-Indonesia). The views expressed in this publication do not represent the views of the Australian Government.

Gutomo received funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade through KONEKSI (Knowledge Partnership Platform Australia-Indonesia). The views expressed in this publication do not represent the views of the Australian Government.

Ilmiawan received funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade through KONEKSI (Knowledge Partnership Platform Australia-Indonesia). The views expressed in this publication do not represent the views of the Australian Government.

Lilis received funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade through KONEKSI (Knowledge Partnership Platform Australia-Indonesia). The views expressed in this publication do not represent the views of the Australian Government.

Rumayya received funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade through KONEKSI (Knowledge Partnership Platform Australia-Indonesia). The views expressed in this publication do not represent the views of the Australian Government.

Yulia received funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade through KONEKSI (Knowledge Partnership Platform Australia-Indonesia). The views expressed in this publication do not represent the views of the Australian Government.

– ref. Indonesian social forestry often excludes women from decisions, risking greater inequality – https://theconversation.com/indonesian-social-forestry-often-excludes-women-from-decisions-risking-greater-inequality-238904

July 5, 2025

Reflecting on 20 years of the Aceh tsunami: From ‘megathrust’ threat to disaster mitigation

Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Zulfakriza Z., Associate Professor, Global Geophysics Research Group, Institut Teknologi Bandung

20 years have passed since the Aceh tsunami, which left deep scars on Indonesia, especially for those directly affected. Aceh was also recovering from a three-decade armed conflict between the Free Aceh Movement and the national government

Throughout December 2024, The Conversation Indonesia, in collaboration with academics, is publishing a special edition honouring the 20 years of efforts to rebuild Aceh. We hope this series of articles preserves our collective memory while inspiring reflection on the journey of recovery and peace in the land of ‘Serambi Makkah.’

Sunday, December 26, 2004, 7:58:53 AM (WIB, GMT+7): A 9.1 moment magnitude (Mw) earthquake occurred off the west coast of Aceh. The quake, originating from a depth of 30 kilometers below the sea, triggered a tsunami that devastated the province.

Research in 2021 suggested the earthquake’s magnitude was actually greater than what was previously recorded — 9.2 Mw. Scientists came to this conclusion after recalculating tsunami data using Green’s Function, a mathematical method that analyses how tsunami waves are formed and spread. This gave them a more accurate estimate of how strong the earthquake was.

From December 26, 2004, to February 26, 2005, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) documented about 2,050 aftershocks, a series of aftershock caused by the mainshock.

The effects of the 2004 Aceh earthquake and tsunami extended beyond Indonesia, affecting coastlines in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and possibly Africa. More than 227,000 people were killed, with Aceh alone accounting for approximately 167,000.

The 2004 Aceh Earthquake and Tsunami is known as one of the most devastating natural disasters in history. While it left deep wounds, it also demonstrated the fundamental need for disaster preparedness.

Tectonic map, megathrust zones, and seismic gaps

Indonesia is prone to disasters due to its location in a tectonically active zone where four major plates — Indo-Australian, Eurasian, Pacific, and Philippine — with convergence movement.

Comprising Earth’s rigid outer layer or lithosphere, a tectonic plate is a large, irregularly shaped sheet of solid rock that moves and interacts with other plates to sculpt the surface of the planet over geological time. These plate clashes have the potential to trigger massive earthquakes, particularly in western Sumatra, southern Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, the Banda Sea, Maluku, Papua, and Sulawesi.

A shift between two tectonic plates in the Indian Ocean resulted in a thrust fault, causing the 2004 Aceh earthquake. The fault stretched 500 kilometers – roughly the distance between Jakarta and Yogyakarta – with a breadth of about 150 kilometers. Known as a “megathrust earthquake,” the plates shifted by more than 20 meters, releasing enormous energy and causing tsunami waves up to 35 meters high – the height of a 10-story building.

Aside from earthquakes and tsunamis, tectonic movements can also trigger volcanic activity. Indonesia, which is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, has 127 active volcanoes, making it the world’s most seismically and volcanically active region.

Between 1900 and 2023, Indonesia recorded 14,820 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5 Mw. Among these, 15 were more than 8 Mw, including the 2004 Aceh earthquake. Other big earthquakes, like those in Sumba (1977), Biak (1996), Nias (2005), and Bengkulu (2007), also triggered tsunamis, causing substantial casualties and damage.

Indonesia also has several megathrust zones – areas along tectonic plate boundaries prone to generating large earthquakes like the 2004 Aceh event. There are 13 identified megathrust zones near the waters off western Sumatra, southern Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, northern Sulawesi, Halmahera, and Papua. These zones are prone to generate quakes of magnitudes ranging from 7.8 to 9.2 Mw, capable of delivering major destruction and tsunamis.

Over the last 30 years, some of Indonesia’s megathrust zones have been releasing seismic energy. These zones were the source of major earthquakes such as 1996 Biak, 1994 Banyuwangi, 2004 Aceh, 2005 Nias, 2006 Pangandaran, and 2007 Bengkulu.

However, data from the past 123 years show that some parts of the megathrust zones rarely experience large earthquakes. This could be because tectonic movements in these locations are stuck, causing stress to build up over time. These “seismic gaps” indicate high-risk zones for future big earthquakes.

A seismic gap, for example, exists between the megathrust zones off the western and eastern coasts of Java. For instance, in western Java’s subduction zone, the slip deficit — or plate movement locked in place — has reached 40-60 mm per year. If this energy is eventually released, it might result in a significant earthquake and possibly a tsunami.

Advances in disaster research

Indonesia’s high disaster risk has attracted scholars from all around the world, particularly following the 2004 Aceh Tsunami. From 2005 to 2024, Google Scholar recorded approximately 1,000 scientific works on Indonesian earthquakes and tsunamis.

These studies have improved our understanding of earthquake causes and trends. For example, research on the 2018 Palu and Sunda Strait tsunamis revealed that neither was directly caused by earthquakes. The Palu tsunami resulted from an undersea landslide triggered by a 7.5 Mw earthquake on September 28, 2018. Meanwhile, the Sunda Strait tsunami was caused by the fall of Mount Anak Krakatau’s volcanic side.

Indonesian academics have also investigated big earthquake origins and aftershocks. Teams from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), and the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) have looked at aftershock patterns to learn more about where earthquakes come from and how they work. Among those closely studied are 2018 Lombok and 2022 Cianjur. This has led to new ideas for reducing risk and damage.

The Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS), managed by BMKG, continues to encourage seismic research collaborations. By 2024, the system would have 521 seismic stations spread across Indonesia. This extensive network allows for faster broadcast of earthquake data to the public, notably timely tsunami warnings after major earthquakes.

Mitigation requires collaboration

While scientists continue to investigate tectonic motions, accurately predicting earthquakes and tsunamis remains impossible. Therefore, mitigation and risk reduction are crucial.

Disaster mitigation efforts include public education and the use of earthquake-resistant infrastructure. These require the support of a wide range of stakeholders.

In 2007, three years after the Aceh Tsunami, Indonesia passed a Disaster Management Law, detailing risk reduction activities, including mitigation. This law promotes collaboration among five major elements: government, communities, academics, corporations, and the media — a framework known as the “pentahelix.”

The government acts as a regulator, the media disseminates information, corporations provide financial and technological support, communities serve as field implementers, and academics act as innovators.

Collaboration is essential for successful catastrophe mitigation. However, problems such as sectoral ego frequently impede efforts. For example, a refusal to share data across authorities can jeopardise earthquake research and mitigation efforts.

Finally, disaster risk mitigation is a shared responsibility. Building a more robust and sustainable mitigation system requires improved institutional coordination and communication.

Zulfakriza Z. tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.

– ref. Reflecting on 20 years of the Aceh tsunami: From ‘megathrust’ threat to disaster mitigation – https://theconversation.com/reflecting-on-20-years-of-the-aceh-tsunami-from-megathrust-threat-to-disaster-mitigation-245142