Category: Analysis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Taylor, Professor of Anatomy, Lancaster University

Scrolling through social media, it’s hard to miss influencers raiding the pantry for “natural” beauty fixes: baking-soda scrubs, garlic spot sticks, cayenne masks that promise to tighten pores and banish dullness.

The appeal is obvious. Why pay for a dermatologist-tested cream when everyday ingredients come with antimicrobial or exfoliating properties? Yet what looks sensible in a 30-second reel can translate into painful, sometimes dangerous, DIY disasters.

Just because it’s edible doesn’t mean it’s safe to put on your skin.

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Garlic, chilli, turmeric and their spice-rack neighbours may contain potent bioactive compounds, but in raw form they are unrefined, unstable and frequently far too harsh for the delicate acid mantle that shields human skin.

Professional cosmetic chemists isolate biologically active plant compounds, purify them and blend them at precisely calibrated doses suited to the skin’s natural pH. A spoonful of cayenne or a pinch of bicarbonate of soda offers none of that control. Slapping pantry powders on your face risks chemical burns, rashes or long-term damage.

Concentration is the first stumbling block. A teaspoon of baking soda, for instance, has nothing in common with a safety-tested cleanser that might contain less than 1% sodium bicarbonate balanced by humectants (moisture-attracting ingerdients) and acids.

Likewise, a swipe of raw cayenne delivers an unpredictable hit of capsaicin, the fiery molecule that dermatologists use in nerve-pain creams, but only at strictly managed strengths.

Pure kitchen spices also arrive with their own microorganisms: they are agricultural products processed in bulk. Once mixed with water or oil to create a mask they can become bacterial broths, inviting infection rather than a healthy glow.

Baking soda: more alkaline than your skin can handle

Baking soda illustrates how quickly a “harmless” staple can upset skin chemistry. Celebrated online for mild antibacterial and antifungal properties, sodium bicarbonate is, in fact, highly alkaline.

Normal skin sits in the acidic range of 4.5 to 5.5. Apply a thick alkaline paste and the pH shoots upward, disrupting friendly microbes and triggering irritation and breakouts.

Studies in humans show a bicarbonate paste does not relieve psoriasis itch or redness. On babies, baking-soda soaks for nappy rash have caused hypokalaemic metabolic alkalosis (low potassium levels in the blood), leading to seizures and coma.

Some influencers say that the same paste that soothes burns is safe, but it can be dangerous. There are reports of baking soda causing severe skin damage – such as deep burns and even tissue death – when it was applied to broken or injured skin.

Even more alarming are posts touting it as a DIY cancer therapy, on the theory that it “neutralises” tumour acidity. High oral doses have disrupted heart rhythm and caused death.

Garlic: ancient remedy, modern irritant

Garlic’s folklore as a “natural antibiotic” fares no better. Raw cloves are loaded with sulphur compounds that behave like caustic chemicals. Direct application has produced allergic or irritant dermatitis and even third-degree burns on lips and eyelids.

Any scars may outlast the pimple they were supposed to heal.

Research on allicin, a natural compound in garlic, shows promise as an antimicrobial and heart-protective agent – potentially helping to lower blood pressure, reduce inflammation and prevent heart disease. But that study used purified extracts in lab conditions – not a clove rubbed straight onto skin.

Chilli peppers: capsaicin isn’t a beauty hack

Chillies present an even hotter hazard. Capsaicin is licensed for nerve-pain creams yet even pharmacists warn of burning, redness and swelling. Home kitchens, obviously, lack a pharmacist.

Cooks who handle chillies daily can develop Hunan hand, an intensely painful, burning dermatitis. Despite this, some beauty hacks still recommend cayenne masks for radiance. Airborne or topical capsaicin stings the eyes, triggering involuntary spasms and long exposure can cause lasting corneal injury.

Inhaling the dust provokes coughing fits and, over time, lung inflammation. Because capsaicin penetrates the skin, repeated use can damage peripheral nerve fibres – dulling your ability to feel heat or pain – and disrupt normal blood flow, which may lead to tissue irritation, delayed healing or increased sensitivity. It can also affect blood pressure, especially in people with underlying health issues.

A notorious example underscored the danger: a woman suffered agonising vaginal burns after unknowingly using a tampon contaminated with pepper spray that had leaked in her handbag. Even mustard powder can deliver second-degree burns when misapplied.

Spice rack roulette: staining, burning, dermatitis

Spices thought to be milder are hardly innocent. Cinnamon is a trendy lip-plumper, yet dermatologists document contact dermatitis and chemical burns. Ginger “glow” masks leave many users with red, irritated skin.

Clove oil, hyped as a spot cure, has produced caustic injuries. Saffron can cause allergic rashes, while turmeric’s curcumin, celebrated online for anti-inflammatory benefits, often delivers dermatitis and bright yellow staining that lingers for days.

Dermatologists recommend patch-testing any new skincare product, even “pure” essential oils, on the inner arm for 48 hours.

Powdered spices also wander: a cinnamon scrub can fill the air with irritant dust that settles in eyes or airways, leaving you sneezing and sore instead of glowing.

Respect your barrier

Dermatologists emphasise the importance of protecting the skin barrier: gentle, pH-balanced cleansers and moisturisers help maintain the acid mantle that defends against germs. Your doctor or pharmacist can guide you toward proven plant-based ingredients like niacinamide, aloe vera, or colloidal oatmeal, all of which offer skin benefits without the sting.

Next time an influencer urges you to “ditch chemicals” or promote “clean beauty” and scoop your skincare out of a spice jar, remember, everything is a chemical. Some belong on your dinner plate – very few belong on your face.

Adam Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. From raw garlic cloves to cayenne pepper: why ‘natural’ DIY skincare can leave you burnt, itchy – or worse – https://theconversation.com/from-raw-garlic-cloves-to-cayenne-pepper-why-natural-diy-skincare-can-leave-you-burnt-itchy-or-worse-260264

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephan Blum, Research associate, Institute for Prehistory and Early History and Medieval Archaeology, University of Tübingen

Beneath the epic tales of heroes and gods, Troy’s true story is written in something far less glamorous – its rubbish.

When we think of Troy, we imagine epic battles, valiant deeds, cunning tricks and the wrath of gods. Thanks to Homer’s Iliad, the city is remembered as a stage for romance and heroism.

But long before Paris stole Helen and Achilles raged on the battlefield, the people of bronze age Troy lived ordinary lives – with extraordinary consequences. They built, cooked, stored, traded and, crucially, threw things away. And they did it right where they lived.

Today, waste is whisked away quickly – out of sight, out of mind. But in bronze age Troy (3000–1000BC), trash stayed close, often accumulating in domestic dumping grounds for generations.

Having spent more than 16 summers excavating and analysing the bronze age layers of Troy, I’ve learned to read the city’s history this waste.

Hundreds of thousands of animal bones from cattle, sheep, fish – even turtles – were found alongside vast quantities of pottery shards, ash, food scraps, and human waste. Sometimes, these layers were reused to level floors or build walls, showing how closely intertwined daily life and refuse management were.

Archaeology’s dirty secret

This wasn’t laziness or neglect, it was pure pragmatism. In a world without rubbish trucks or sanitation systems, managing refuse was neither chaotic nor careless, but a collective, spatially negotiated – and surprisingly strategic – effort.

The excavations I have worked on as part of the University of Tübingen’s Troy Project, which has been going on since 1988, have revealed just how deliberate these routines were. Where people chose to dump, or not to dump, speaks volumes about status, social roles, and community boundaries. Waste is the diary no one meant to write, yet it records the intimate rhythms of daily life with unfiltered clarity.

Far from a nuisance, Troy’s waste is an archaeologist’s treasure trove.

Over nearly 2,000 years, Troy ended up with 15 meters of built-up debris. Archaeologists can see nine major building phases in it, each made up of hundreds of thin layers, which formed as people lived their everyday lives. These layers act like snapshots, quietly recording how the city changed over time. Some capture hearth cleanings, others record the rebuilding of entire city quarters.

By analysing the layers and their ratios of bones to pottery, ash concentration, presence of storage jars, grinding stones, or production debris, specific spaces of activity become visible: kitchens, workshops, storage areas, rubbish pits. What appears chaotic turns out to be a carefully structured map of everyday routines – showing where meals were prepared, tools made, and discarded objects left behind.

The story these remains tell is one of profound transformation. Troy began as a modest agrarian settlement, shaped by the steady rhythms of farming, herding, and small-scale craft. Over time, it grew into a thriving regional centre.

The archaeological record, rich in refuse, traces this long arc of change. Exotic imports fashioned from stones such as carnelian and lapis lazuli begin to appear, revealing distant trade connections. Specialised metalworking tools emerge alongside monumental architecture. some buildings stretched nearly 30 metres, signalling growing ambitions and expanding capabilities.

This rise unfolded gradually, reflected not just in grander buildings, but in shifting tools, trade, and how people dealt with what they left behind. Waste management became more organised, with designated areas for different types of waste. This reflects broader shifts in how the community structured space and managed its economy.

Yet this ascent was interrupted. By the mid-third millennium BC, signs that things were becoming smaller appear. Architecture simplifies, household inventories shrink, production debris declines suggesting economic slowdown or political instability.

Still, Troy endured. By the mid-second millennium BC, the city revived. Refined ceramics, luxury imports and evidence of social complexity marked a new chapter of recovery and reinvention. This splendid settlement later became the stage for Homer’s Trojan War where Greek warriors faced the daunting task of climbing towering mounds of debris built up over centuries just to reach the palaces.

A heap worth climbing

These insights allow us to see Troy not just as a city of walls and towers, but as a living organism shaped by daily routines, unspoken norms and social negotiation. The waste left behind is a remarkably honest archive of bronze age society – beneath myths, stones, and poetry.

Troy’s trash heaps are the bronze age’s search history. To know what mattered 4,500 years ago, don’t ask poets – ask the garbage. From broken tools to shared meals, from imported luxuries to scraps, this waste reveals the pulse of everyday life and society’s evolving structure.

Ironically, these mundane refuse layers preserved the bronze age world for us. Without them, we’d know far less about early Troy’s people. Their depth and composition trace changes in economy, technology, and social structure. From scraps to towers of pottery shards, waste archaeology is key to understanding early urban complexity.

So next time you picture Achilles storming Troy’s gates, remember: the heroes might have been divine, but their city smelled very human.

Stephan Blum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We can learn a lot from Troy’s trash – https://theconversation.com/we-can-learn-a-lot-from-troys-trash-260613

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Pinar Dinc, Associate Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science and Researcher, Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University

The historic disarmament ceremony on July 11 where members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) laid down their arms marked a pivotal moment in a decades-long conflict in Turkey. The ceremony was described by many who attended as a profoundly symbolic and emotional day that may signal the beginning of a new era.

During the disarmament ceremony in Sulaymaniyah in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, 26 PKK guerrillas alongside four senior commanders and leaders of the movement, symbolically laid aid down their arms and burned them. The audience included officials from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), plus politicians, journalists and international observers.

For more than four decades the PKK has been embroiled in an armed conflict with Turkey that has claimed more than 40,000 lives and shaped Kurdish identity and politics across the region.

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The PKK disarmament ceremony also could mark a new era for the Kurds, one of the largest stateless groups in the world with over 30 million people living across Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. The PKK has said it will now shift from armed resistance to political dialogue and regional cooperation.

Strikingly, the day after the ceremony, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan acknowledged the state’s historical failures in addressing the Kurdish issue. He listed past abuses of Kurds – state-sponsored abductions and extrajudicial violence, the burning of villages and the forced displacement of families – as examples of policies that had fuelled, rather than quelled, the conflict.

“We all paid the price for these mistakes” he said. He later added: “As of yesterday, Turkey began to close a long, painful and tear-filled chapter.” Erdoğan also announced the formation of a parliamentary commission to oversee the legal steps of the peace process, suggesting a much-needed institutionalised and transparent approach than in previous attempts.

This hints that the road ahead might include a period of transitional justice. This could compose of different tools used by societies to address past violence and human rights abuses during a shift from conflict to peace and democracy. These may include legal actions such as trials, as well as other efforts to heal and rebuild trust in society.

Erdoğan also underlined the regional dimension of the agreement: “The issue is not only that of our Kurdish citizens, but also of our Kurdish brothers and sisters in Iraq and Syria. We are discussing this process with them, and they are very pleased as well.”

International dimensions

While the PKK may be laying down arms, the Kurdish political movement should not be expected to disappear. On the contrary, it is likely to become more active in the democratic sphere — both in Turkey and in other parts of the Middle East where Kurdish people live. It is no secret that the current peace process is the result of shifting geopolitical realities.

Growing tensions between the US and Iran, Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, the ousting of the Assad regime in Syria, and shifting power dynamics across the region have all contributed to a geopolitical landscape in which prolonged armed conflict has become increasingly unsustainable — for both Turkey and the PKK. In this context, the current peace process is not merely a domestic initiative.

It represents a strategic recalibration in a rapidly changing Middle East. For Turkey, stabilising its southeastern border and reducing internal security pressures is essential amid regional volatility.

Turkey has long maintained strong ties with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) (the official ruling body of the Kurdistan region) in Iraq. However, the situation for Kurds in Syria remains more complex, as Turkey continues to view the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (a region that has in effect been self governing since 2012 and where many Kurds live) as a security threat along its border.

Meanwhile, negotiations continue between the new Syrian government under current president, Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish-led coalition in Syria, which has been historically backed by the US. The SDF seeks to maintain its military autonomy and have its own independent political system — both of which are opposed by Damascus.

Western nations, particularly the US, remain influential in these talks. The US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, Thomas Barrack, is reportedly uneasy with the lack of progress in the talks between al-Shara, and the SDF. He said: “The SDF, who has been a valued partner for America in the fight against ISIS, well-respected, bright, articulate, has to come to the conclusion that there’s one country, there’s one nation, there’s one people, and there’s one army.”

Another factor here is that a strong Arab-Turkish-Kurdish alliance is unlikely to align with Israeli strategic interests, which may favour a more fragmented Kurdish presence in the region.

For now, Turkey faces the complex task of overseeing a comprehensive disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration process. This requires not only the decommissioning of weapons and the disbanding of armed units, but also the social and political reintegration of former combatants. The success of this will depend on legal reforms, institutional trust and a genuine commitment to democratic inclusion.

Erdoğan has been critised for his government’s ongoing non-democratic practices such the appointment of state trustees who replace elected officials and the imprisonment of elected officials.

And, despite the symbolic disarmament, the Turkish government persists in using the words “struggle against terrorism” — an approach that risks undermining the peace process by criminalising political dialogue and delegitimising Kurdish demands.

Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that the PKK’s broader network, including the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK), a group representing Kurds across Iraq, Syria and Turkey, must cease to pose a threat. “We will remain vigilant until every component of the KCK is no longer a danger to our nation and region,” he stated.

For the PKK, the changing alliances and uncertainties in Syria and Iraq may have made armed struggle a less viable path forward. Yet the sustainability of peace will depend on more than disarmament. It will require ending the criminalisation of Kurds in political institutions and within civil society.

What comes next will determine whether this moment becomes a historic turning point or another missed opportunity.

Pinar Dinc is the principal investigator of the ECO-Syria project, which receives funding from the Strategic Research Area: The Middle East in the Contemporary World (MECW) at the Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, Sweden.

– ref. How does the PKK’s disarmament affect Turkey, Syria and Iraq? – https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-pkks-disarmament-affect-turkey-syria-and-iraq-261113

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dale Pankhurst, PhD candidate and Tutor in the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics, Queen’s University Belfast

The British government announced in early July that a far-right group called the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) will be banned under terrorism legislation. This will make it a criminal offence in the UK to be a member of the group or to express support for it.

The RIM was at the centre of a string of letter bomb attacks targeting high-profile people and institutions in Spain in 2022. These included a bomb addressed to the official residence of Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez, which was intercepted by his security detail.

Six more letter bombs were mailed to targets including the American and Ukrainian embassies in Madrid, military installations, and weapons manufacturing companies that supply arms to Ukraine. No one was killed in the attacks, which US officials considered to be acts of terrorism.

Investigators soon announced that they suspected the RIM of being involved. US and European officials alleged that the group was directed to carry out the attacks by Russian intelligence officers.

What is the RIM?

The RIM is an ultra-nationalist, neo-nazi and white supremacist organisation based in Russia. It was created in 2002 by Stanislav Anatolyevich Vorobyev, a Russian national who is designated a terrorist by the US government.

The group seeks to create a new Russian empire, and uses the Russian imperial flag as its sign. The previous Russian empire (1721-1917) encompassed all of modern-day Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Finland, Georgia, Armenia and the Baltic states, as well as parts of China.

The movement does not recognise Ukrainian sovereignty. It sees Ukraine as part of what it calls a global Zionist conspiracy designed to undermine Russia and promote Jewish interests. The RIM has engaged in Holocaust denial and is formally outlawed in the US, Canada and now the UK.

It also has a paramilitary wing called the Imperial Legions, which operates at least two training facilities in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. The US State Department believes these facilities are being used to train RIM members in woodland and urban assault, tactical weapons and hand-to-hand combat.

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Denis Valliullovich Gariyev, the Imperial Legions’ leader, has in the past called on “young orthodox men” to join the Legions and defend Novorossiya – a term used to describe Russia’s claim over Ukraine. As of 2020, the Imperial Legions was estimated to have several thousand members.

The RIM and its paramilitary wing have engaged in a wide range of activities and operations. These range from passive alliances with other far-right groups in Europe to providing paramilitary training for terrorist organisations. They have also participated directly in bomb attacks.

Since 2014, when the conflict in eastern Ukraine began, the movement has trained and sent members as mercenaries to bolster the pro-Russian separatist groups fighting there. Its members have also actively supported the Russian armed forces in Ukraine after the full-scale invasion in 2022.

After the invasion, posts related to the RIM on various social media platforms such as Vkontakte and Telegram revealed a ramping up of recruitment to join operations in Ukraine. Its fighters have posted videos of themselves in Ukraine armed with weaponry from sniper rifles to anti-tank missiles.

According to analysts, the movement also maintains strong ties with the Russian private military company, the Wagner Group. Imperial Legions fighters are believed to have operated alongside Wagner mercenaries in Syria, Libya and possibly the Central African Republic.

Outside of these activities, the movement has been active in supporting far-right organisations in Europe. These include the Nordic Resistance Movement in Sweden and similar groups in Germany, Spain and elsewhere.

It provides training to these groups through its so-called “Partizan” (Russian for guerrilla) programme. The training includes bombmaking, marksmanship, medical and survival skills, military topography and other tactics. According to the UK government, the Partizan programme aims to increase the capacity of attendees to conduct terrorist attacks.

Two Swedish nationals who took part in the programme later committed a series of bombings against refugee centres in Gothenburg, a city on Sweden’s west coast, in late 2016 and early 2017. The men were convicted in Sweden, with the prosecutor crediting RIM for their terrorist radicalisation and training.

The RIM has also provided specific paramilitary training to far-right groups in Finland. Some members of these groups have fought on Russia’s side in Ukraine, while others have attempted to establish a Finnish cell of the international neo-nazi Atomwaffen Division. Police raids in 2023 also unveiled plans to assassinate the then Finnish prime minister, Sanna Marin.

Links with the Russian state

The movement has previously been critical of the Russian government. It initially believed the approach of Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, to Ukraine was too soft, while the group’s promotion of white supremacy and neo-nazism is at odds with Putin’s pragmatic nationalism within Russia.

In 2012, the RIM even took part in discussions with other far-right groups in Russia to form an opposition movement called New Force to challenge Putin’s rule. However, the crisis in Ukraine that erupted in 2014 after pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from power has caused the Kremlin and RIM’s political objectives to converge.

Indeed, the group can now be viewed as one of the core Russian proxy paramilitaries operating in Ukraine at a time when Putin needs more recruits to continue the war. Western intelligence agencies now believe it has a relationship with officials from Russian state intelligence.

It is difficult to pinpoint the total number of RIM fighters operating in Ukraine as the involvement of mercenary groups there is a closely guarded secret. However, based on previous intelligence reports on the group’s activities, it is reasonable to assume the number is in the hundreds to low thousands.

The decision by the British government to proscribe the RIM indicates concern that the far-right group is increasing its operational capacity both in Ukraine and throughout Europe. With its extensive network, the movement will become an increasing threat to security if it is allowed to continue acting as a proxy for Putin’s foreign policy objectives.

Dale Pankhurst does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Russian Imperial Movement: how a far-right group outlawed by the UK is spreading terror across Europe – https://theconversation.com/russian-imperial-movement-how-a-far-right-group-outlawed-by-the-uk-is-spreading-terror-across-europe-260825

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nic Cheeseman, Professor of Democracy, University of Birmingham

The election of Zambia’s president, Hakainde Hichilema, in 2021 was widely interpreted as a victory for democracy. Zambia had suffered rising repression under former leader Edgar Lungu, but Hichilema promised democratic accountability. However, there are now concerns that his government is promoting constitutional changes that would entrench ruling-party dominance.

Hichilema has proposed a bill that would increase the number of MPs by over 60%. It would also introduce elements of proportional representation to create a “mixed” electoral system, and create reserved seats for women, young people and those with disabilities.

Zambia’s ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) claims the amendments are needed to correct historical exclusion. But many civil society groups believe this is “gender washing” – using inclusive rhetoric to mask an authoritarian agenda.

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This scepticism is rooted in recent political developments and the text itself. The bill has emerged alongside other legislation that would tighten state control over civic and political space, at a time when infringements on fundamental freedoms in Zambia are growing.

Many of the bill’s provisions are also vague and some undermine democratic checks and balances, while the progressive aspects are ill-conceived. This makes the proposed reforms, in the words of well-known Zambian constitutional expert O’Brien Kaaba: “deeply problematic and counterproductive”.

I take no pleasure in saying this. The last time I wrote such an article about Zambia, it was to condemn the persecution of Hichilema after he was arrested in 2017 on trumped up treason charges. I was honoured to receive a letter of thanks upon his release.

Like many Zambians and international observers, I was hopeful for the new administration. Yet, while the government has kept some campaign promises and negotiated a difficult deal on the country’s debt burden, efforts to restore democracy are now going backwards.

Weakening a fragile system

As prominent Zambian civil society leaders like Laura Miti and Linda Kasonde have warned, a number of the proposed changes could enable the government to all-but-guarantee itself a majority in the next elections scheduled for 2026.

First, the bill would add 55 new constituency-based MPs – more than the total number to be elected through proportional representation. There are concerns that most of these new constituencies will be created in UPND strongholds, helping the party retain a majority even if it loses support.

These fears have been magnified by the government’s failure to release the Boundary Delimitation Report, which sets out the redrawing of electoral boundaries. This has prevented independent scrutiny of the process and its motivations.

Second, the rule that parliament must be dissolved 90 days before elections is also being revoked on the basis that this unfairly shortens office terms for MPs. Although MPs would not be supposed to conduct parliamentary business after this point, such a change would exacerbate existing problems. These include the use of government resources and vehicles in the ruling party’s campaign.

And third, the constitutional amendment increases the number of MPs the president can appoint from eight to ten. In a system already adding reserved seats for underrepresented groups, this lacks justification. Taken together, these changes threaten to further empower the government and explain why a collective of civil society groups recently demanded “an immediate halt” to the process.

At the same time, the government has not taken the opportunity to remove problematic clauses from Zambia’s constitution. These include the right of the president to dissolve the National Assembly if it fails to “reasonably” perform its duties.

The government has justified the bill by emphasising the historical underrepresentation of women and marginalised groups in Zambian politics. This is a serious problem, but the bill will not fix it.

The amendments only create 20 seats for women, 12 for young people, and three for those with disabilities. In a 256-seat chamber, this will do little to address the imbalance and falls well short of the Southern African Development Community’s target of 30% female representation.

Poorly designed quotas can also reinforce marginalisation. Parties may push women toward quota seats, limiting their participation in regular constituency races. The amendment may thus create a new ceiling: if women only run in reserved seats, female representation would almost halve from 15% now to just 8% in the next parliament.

A similar issue arises with the proportional representation system more broadly. When only a small proportion of seats are allocated this way, it fails to deliver the benefits of fairness that are associated with true proportionality.

In other words, the constitutional amendment bill gives the appearance of inclusivity while carefully preserving the government’s incumbency advantage.

A constitutional rush-job

Perhaps the most striking flaw in the bill has been the process itself. The amendments have seen such scant public consultation that, in June, the Law Association of Zambia called for them to be withdrawn.

This concern is shared by the constitutional court, which recently found the government had failed to meet constitutional requirements for public participation. The court recommended restarting a more inclusive process.

Hichilema, perhaps aware of the likely verdict, preempted the ruling by announcing shortly before the court’s decision that he would pause the process to allow for wider consultation. This is a welcome, but insufficient, development. As the Law Association has argued, the amendments are so badly designed that they do not represent a viable foundation for constitutional review.

Compounding its other flaws, the legislation is poorly written and vague. In many cases, it also fails to explain how new provisions would actually work in practice. The bill therefore needs to be withdrawn, not revised or deferred.

Zambia needs a new constitution, but it deserves one that is rooted in evidence, consultation and democratic principles. Anything less threatens to undermine the country’s hard-won democratic gains and Hichilema’s own legacy.

Nic Cheeseman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Zambia facing a democratic crossroads as it enters a fresh constitutional crisis – https://theconversation.com/zambia-facing-a-democratic-crossroads-as-it-enters-a-fresh-constitutional-crisis-260595

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

Clearly angered by the intensification of Russia’s air campaign against Ukraine, Donald Trump has pivoted from the suspension of US military assistance to Ukraine to promising its resumption. Russia’s strikes on major cities killed more civilians in June than have died in any single previous month, according to UN figures.

Over the past two weeks, the US president has made several disparaging comments about his relationship with Vladimir Putin, including on July 13 that the Russian president “talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening”.

Not only will the US resume delivery of long-promised Patriot air defence missiles, Trump is now also reported to be considering a whole new plan to arm Ukraine, including with offensive capabilities. And he has talked about imposing new sanctions on Putin’s regime.

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This is the background against which the eighth Ukraine Recovery Conference took place in Rome on July 10 and 11. The event, attended by many western leaders and senior business executives, was an important reminder that while the war against Ukraine will be decided on the battlefield, peace will only be won as the result of rebuilding Ukraine’s economy and society.

Ending the war anytime soon and on terms favourable to Kyiv will require an enormous effort by Ukrainians and their European allies. But the country’s recovery afterwards will be no less challenging.

According to the World Bank’s latest assessment, at the end of 2024 Ukraine’s recovery needs over the next decade stood at US$524 billion (£388 billion). And with every month the war continues, these needs are increasing. Ukraine’s three hardest-hit sectors are housing, transport and energy infrastructure, which between them account for around 60% of all damage.

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided a relatively positive assessment of Ukraine’s overall economic situation at the end of June, forecasting growth of between 2% and 3% for 2025 – likely to grow to over 4% in 2026 and 2027. But the IMF also cautioned that this trajectory – and the country’s macroeconomic stability more generally – will remain heavily dependent on external support.

Taking into account a new €2.3 billion package from the EU, consisting of €1.8 billion of loan guarantees and €580 million of grants, the cumulative pledge of over €10 billion (£8.7 billion) made by countries attending the Ukraine recovery conference is both encouraging and sobering.

It is encouraging in the sense that Ukraine’s international partners remain committed to the country’s social and economic needs, not merely its ability to resist Russia on the battlefield.

But it is also sobering that even these eye-watering sums of public money are still only a fraction of Ukraine’s needs. Even if the EU manages to mobilise its overall target of €40 billion for Ukraine’s recovery, by attracting additional contributions from other donors and the private sector, this would be less than 8% of Ukraine’s projected recovery needs as of the end of 2024.

As the war continues and more of the (diminishing) public funding is directed towards defence expenditure by Kyiv’s western partners, this gap is likely to grow.

Overcoming the trauma of war

Money is not the only challenge for Ukraine recovery efforts. Rebuilding the country is not simply about undoing the physical damage.

The social impact of Russia’s aggression is hard to overstate. Ukraine has been deeply traumatised as a society since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Generally reliable Ukrainian casualty counts – some 12,000 civilians and 43,000 troops killed since February 2022 – are still likely to underestimate the true number of people who have died as a direct consequence of the Russian aggression. And each of these will have left behind family members struggling to cope with their loss. In addition, there are hundreds of thousands of war veterans.

Even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there were nearly half a million veterans from the “frozen” conflict that followed Russia’s annexation of Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine. By the end of 2024, this number had more than doubled to around 1 million. Most of them have complex social, economic, medical and psychological needs that will have to be considered as part of a society-wide recovery effort.

Returning refugees

According to data from the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), there are also some 7 million refugees from Ukraine and 3.7 million internally displaced people (IDPs). This is equivalent to one quarter of the country’s population. The financial needs of UNHCR’s operations in Ukraine are estimated at $800 million in 2025, of which only 27% was funded as of the end of April.

Once the fighting in Ukraine ends, refugees are likely to return in greater numbers. Their return will provide a boost to the country’s economic growth by strengthening its labour force and bringing with them skills and, potentially, investment. But like many IDPs and veterans, they may not be able to return to their places of origin, either because these are not inhabitable or remain under Russian occupation.

Some returnees are likely to be viewed with suspicion or resentment by those Ukrainians who stayed behind and fought. Tensions with Ukrainians who survived the Russian occupation in areas that Kyiv may recover in a peace deal are also likely, given Ukraine’s harsh anti-collaboration laws.

As a consequence, reintegration – in the sense of rebuilding and sustaining the country’s social cohesion – will be a massive challenge, requiring as much, if not more, of Ukraine’s partners’ attention and financial support as physical reconstruction and the transition from a war to a peace-time economy.

Given the mismatch between what is needed and what has been provided for Ukraine’s recovery, one may well be sceptical about the value of the annual Ukraine recovery conferences. But, to the credit of their organisers and attendees, they recognise that the foundations for post-war recovery need to be built before the war ends. The non-military challenges of war and peace must not fall by the wayside amid an exclusive focus on battlefield dynamics.

Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

– ref. Over €10 billion has now been pledged for Ukraine’s recovery. It’s nowhere near enough – https://theconversation.com/over-10-billion-has-now-been-pledged-for-ukraines-recovery-its-nowhere-near-enough-260936