Category: Analysis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rachel Woods, Senior Lecturer in Physiology, University of Lincoln

You will likely have heard of probiotics. These are live microorganisms that, when consumed in sufficient amounts, can benefit health. They occur naturally in foods such as yoghurt, kefir, kimchi and sauerkraut and are also sold as supplements.

You may also know that for these probiotics to thrive, they need to be fed. That food comes in the form of prebiotics, which are non-digestible fibres found in everyday foods such as garlic, onions, leeks, bananas and oats. Prebiotics pass through the digestive system largely intact, where they become fuel for beneficial gut bacteria.

More recently, another term has begun appearing on supplement shelves: postbiotics. So what are they, and do we actually need them?

Postbiotics are the beneficial compounds produced when gut bacteria, including probiotics, break down prebiotics. In other words, they are not live bacteria themselves, but the substances those bacteria produce. These include short-chain fatty acids, enzymes, vitamins, amino acids and, in some definitions, structural components such as fragments of bacterial cell walls and parts of dead microorganisms.

Although postbiotic supplements are relatively new, postbiotics themselves are not. They have been produced in our intestines for as long as humans have had gut bacteria. What is new is the idea of consuming them directly, rather than relying on the gut microbiome to make them.

So, if postbiotics are the end product, should we skip probiotics and prebiotics and go straight to postbiotic supplements? The short answer is no. The longer answer lies in the evidence.

Postbiotics are a broad and diverse group of compounds, and research into their health effects is still at an early stage. Some studies suggest potential benefits, but the quality, strength and relevance of the evidence vary widely.

Certain postbiotics, for example, have been linked to improved mood and better sleep quality. Other findings come from laboratory studies, such as reduced invasion of colon cancer cells in cell cultures or protection against E coli infection in tightly controlled experiments. These results are interesting, but they cannot be directly applied to humans without further investigation.

Animal studies suggest some postbiotics may increase the surface area of the gut, which could improve nutrient absorption. However, results seen in animals do not always translate to people.

There is also limited evidence from human studies. One specific postbiotic, butyrate, a short-chain fatty acid produced when gut bacteria break down fibre, has been linked to potential improvements in symptoms among people with inflammatory bowel disease.

A double-blind, placebo-controlled study found that supplementation with a heat-killed strain of Lactobacillus pentosus reduced the likelihood of older adults developing the common cold. Another review concluded that a heat-killed strain of Lactobacillus acidophilus may reduce both the risk and duration of diarrhoea in children.

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Read more:
Gut microbiome: meet Lactobacillus acidophilus – the gut health superhero

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Some postbiotics, such as exopolysaccharides, have shown promise in enhancing immune responses in cell and animal studies. However, these findings remain preliminary.

One form of postbiotic is already used in medical practice. Bacterial lysates are products made from broken-down bacteria and are prescribed in some countries to help prevent recurrent respiratory tract infections in people who are particularly vulnerable. These lysates are made from components of the bacteria that cause infection and work by stimulating the immune system. Outside of these specific clinical uses, however, evidence supporting postbiotic supplements remains limited.

Practical advantages but limited evidence

When researchers refer to advantages of postbiotics, they are usually describing practical and technical factors rather than proven health superiority. Unlike probiotics, which are live microorganisms, postbiotics are non-living compounds. This makes them more stable, easier to store, and less sensitive to heat, oxygen and time. As a result, the amount present in a supplement is more likely to match what is listed on the label.

Postbiotics may also be safer for certain vulnerable groups, such as people who are severely immunocompromised, because they do not involve ingesting live bacteria. These features make postbiotics attractive from a manufacturing and safety perspective.

However, these practical advantages do not mean postbiotics are more effective for improving health. Evidence for benefits in humans remains limited and is highly specific to individual compounds. There is also a lack of standardisation. Because postbiotics include a wide range of substances with different biological effects and dose requirements, findings for one postbiotic cannot be assumed to apply to others.

For most people, supporting the gut microbiome through a varied diet rich in fibre and fermented foods remains the most reliable way to generate postbiotics naturally, while also delivering broader nutritional benefits that supplements cannot replicate.

Perhaps most importantly, postbiotic supplements cannot replicate the wider benefits of whole foods. Eating live yoghurt, for example, provides probiotics alongside calcium and protein. Pairing that yoghurt with a banana feeds the probiotics with prebiotic fibre, while also supplying potassium and vitamin B6. Together, these foods allow the gut to produce postbiotics naturally, while delivering a broad range of nutrients at the same time.

Cost is another consideration. Supplements can be expensive, and for most people, investing that money in a varied diet rich in fibre and fermented foods is likely to deliver greater overall health benefits.

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Read more:
What the gut microbiome of the world’s oldest person can tell us about ageing

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So where does that leave postbiotics? They are a promising area of research and may prove useful in specific clinical settings or vulnerable populations. For now, however, the evidence does not support replacing probiotics and prebiotics with postbiotic supplements for the general population.

At present, the most reliable way to benefit from postbiotics is to let your gut do what it evolved to do. Eating a diet that includes both probiotic foods and prebiotic fibres allows gut bacteria to produce postbiotics naturally. Until research on supplements becomes stronger and clearer, focusing on whole foods remains the most practical and evidence based approach.

Rachel Woods does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What are postbiotic supplements – and do you really need them? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-postbiotic-supplements-and-do-you-really-need-them-272937

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mahsa Ghaffari, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, University of Portsmouth

Iran’s latest wave of unrest is often explained in familiar terms: economic collapse, sanctions, inflation, or sudden political anger. But this framing misses what is actually unfolding.

What we are witnessing is not simply another protest cycle. It is the result of a decades-long erosion of belief in the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic. It is about the slow disintegration of a worldview that once claimed to explain everything: how people should dress, think and live.

Totalitarian systems rarely fall through dramatic revolutions alone. More often, they unravel from within, as the distance grows between what the state demands and what people actually live by.

Today, if you walk through Tehran, you’ll see many women not wearing the hijab. Even when they walk past morality police – who, by law, should enforce its wearing – nothing happens.

I’m a researcher who looks at how the relationship between socio-cultural conditions and consumer behaviour in Iran leads to social conflicts. My work has suggested that, as in the situation described above, where overt acts of actual resistance are brutally suppressed, people rely on mundane and everyday small acts of defiance to navigate or moderate their institutional restrictions.

In healthy societies, laws, norms and everyday practices tend to evolve together. But in totalitarian systems this is not possible. As political philosopher Hannah Arendt argued in The Origins of Totalitarianism, ideology replaces facts. Once that ideology is challenged, it cannot be revised – because revising it would jeopardise the state’s legitimacy.

We see this clearly in Iran. When there is drought or economic hardship, people are told that God is testing them, rather than being given structural or political explanations.

In this way in Iran, the hijab takes on a particular significance. The regulations around how this head covering should be worn are not simply a dress code, but a political apparatus of control.

Despite growing public demands to relax the mandatory hijab rules, the state remains reluctant to do so because any such reform would threaten its own claim to be an Islamic state where people adhere to the rules.

This is where the contradiction becomes clear. On the one hand, people are becoming more educated, more connected, and more able to compare different ways of living. They can see how people in other countries dress, work and live. This exposure can challenge the ideology.

On the other hand, the state cannot revise its ideology without undermining its own legitimacy. It cannot admit that its foundational beliefs were wrong, because those beliefs are what justify its right to rule.

As a result, the legal pillar of the system becomes increasingly rigid. But this rigidity produces something very important – plasticity within institutions.

My research in how this has worked in Iran shows it has created a growing gap between different layers of social life: between what is legally required, what feels socially normal, and what people cognitively accept as reasonable. In other words, the system gets out of sync with itself.

Over time, this introduces a kind of malleability. People begin to sense this gap. They learn how to navigate it, bend it and quietly push against it. This is often where change begins, not with dramatic revolutions, but through everyday acts of adjustment and defiance.

At the same time, this legal rigidity leaves state authorities with no choice but to rely on coercion and force to safeguard their institutions.

Violence is not power

This brings us to another key insight, also from Hannah Arendt: the distinction between power and violence. Power, she argued, comes from collective legitimacy, from people believing in a system. Violence is what is used when the legitimacy is gone.

So, when a government increasingly relies on surveillance, intimidation and punishment, it’s is not a sign of strength. It is a sign of weakness.

This can be seen in what the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently said about Iran: “If a regime can only stay in power through violence, then it is effectively finished.” And over time, the use of force tends to backfire

Some state custodians begin to doubt. Some begin to disagree. Some begin to resist internally leading to fragmentation within the system. When coercive measures are coupled with wrongdoing, such as corruption by state custodians, it further widens this fragmentation.

This tends to create uncertainty inside the system itself. People no longer trust their custodians. And when trust disappears, institutions become fragile. And any shock – economic, political, environmental – can cause societal rupture.

This pattern is not unique to Iran. In China, for instance, secondhand luxury consumption has become a way to challenge hyper-capitalist hierarchies.

In totalitarian systems, everyday life becomes a political arena. And that is existentially dangerous for a totalitarian system. Eventually, a point will be reached where people no longer follow rules because they believe in them. They may still comply, but only under threat of punishment if they don’t.

Across the world, totalitarian regimes face a similar challenge: how to control educated, connected populations who can compare realities. Ideological control becomes harder when people can see alternatives. This is why such systems obsess over the internet. Education destabilises ideologies.

Iran shows that totalitarian ideologies do not crumble overnight. They erode through decades of quiet resistance. Through what might be called the politics of ordinary life.

This is what makes this moment historically significant. The crisis in Iran is not merely economic. Economic hardship exists everywhere. What makes Iran different is that the institutional trust has already collapsed.

What we are witnessing is not simply unrest. It is the slow death of an ideology. And once belief is gone, no amount of force can bring it back.

Mahsa Ghaffari is affiliated with University of Portsmouth

– ref. Iran protests are not just about economics – they’re a full-blown ideological crisis – https://theconversation.com/iran-protests-are-not-just-about-economics-theyre-a-full-blown-ideological-crisis-273955

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nicola Baresi, Lecturer in Orbital Mechanics, Surrey Space Centre, University of Surrey

When a solar storm strikes Earth, it can disrupt technology that’s vital for our daily lives. Solar storms occur when magnetic fields and electrically charged particles collide with the Earth’s magnetic field. This type of event falls into the category known as “space weather”.

The Earth is currently experiencing one of the most intense solar storms of the past two decades, reminding us of the need for ways to understand these events.

An international team of researchers (including us) is working on a spacecraft mission that would enable researchers to study the conditions that create solar storms, leading to improved forecasts of space weather.

The proposed mission, known as Mesom (Moon-enabled Sun Occultation Mission), aims to create total solar eclipses in space. This would allow researchers to view the Sun’s atmosphere in more detail than ever before.

The need for a better understanding of solar storms is evident from looking at past disruptions. In 1989, for example, the Canadian province of Quebec was forced into a nine-hour electricity blackout by a coronal mass ejection (CME) – a huge burst of hot plasma and magnetic field thrown off from the Sun’s atmosphere towards space.

The event, which affected both Canada and the US, is estimated to have cost tens of millions of US and Canadian dollars – both in lost business productivity and the need to replace damaged power equipment.

In May 2024, a succession of similar solar eruptions caused thousands of satellites in low-Earth orbit to abruptly drop in altitude. GPS outages cost US farmers alone an estimated US$500 million (£370 million).

But these storms were significantly weaker than one in 1859, also the result of a CME, which is known as the Carrington Event. Electrical currents flowing through telegraph wires caused a range of effects in telegraph offices across North America and Europe. Operators received electric shocks – with one in Washington DC receiving a serious injury – and sparks triggered small fires in some telegraph offices.

Today, a Carrington-like event would have far more dramatic consequences on our
technology-dependent world, as has been recognised by different UK governments since 2012.

Yet, our view of the Sun’s outer atmosphere, the solar corona – from which CMEs and other adverse space weather events originate – remains dazzled by the bright light emanated from the Sun itself. A new UK-led spacecraft mission aims to change that by recreating total solar eclipse conditions in space.

Better forecasting

During total solar eclipses, the incredibly high-intensity radiation emanating from the visible surface of the Sun is occulted (covered) by the Moon, leaving behind a faint glow of light that comes directly from the outer layers of the Sun’s atmosphere, the corona.

Observing the physical processes in the corona at different timescales and wavelengths is key to enabling better forecasting of space weather – a crucial part of protecting Earth against Carrington-like events – as well as solving longstanding mysteries of our star. These include how the hot plasma of its volatile atmosphere is confined and released by the evolving magnetic fields that thread through it.

Unfortunately, total solar eclipses are predictable yet rare events that only last for a few minutes. All total eclipses predicted in the 21st century will last less than seven minutes each, and will occur only once every 18 months, on average.

Total solar eclipse measurements from the ground are also subject to weather conditions and suffer from distortions and loss of detail, caused by the interaction of the faint coronal light with the Earth’s atmosphere.

For decades, scientists and engineers have observed the corona by artificially
covering the Sun using clever optics and instrument design inspired by the
pioneering work of Bernard Lyot, a French astronomer who first come up with the
idea of a “coronagraph”.

Coronagraphs are telescopes equipped with an occulting disk to block out the overwhelming radiation emanated from the visible surface of the Sun, along with optical stops and filters that are positioned to suppress the light diffracted (scattered) by the disk itself.

In a coronagraph, the faint coronal light can finally reach the instrument’s focal plane, where it is converted into digital signals using photoelectric sensors. This is the working principle of the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (Lasco 3) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (Soho 4) spacecraft, which has returned stunning images of the Sun’s corona since its launch in 1995.

However, even ground-based and space-based coronagraphs cannot capture images of the deepest layers of the Sun’s atmosphere, due to artifacts – artificial effects such as streaks of light that appear in images – and instrument limitations that significantly degrade the quality of the measurements closer to the Sun’s surface.

Neither is the recently launched Proba-3 able to image the solar atmosphere’s deepest layers. Proba-3 is a European Space Agency-led technology demonstration mission that relies on a pair of satellites flying in a close formation (up to 150m apart during observations) to recreate total solar eclipse conditions in space.

Celestial neighbour

An alternative approach, first proposed by UK Airbus engineers Steve Eckersley and
Stephen Kemble, advocates the use of celestial bodies as natural occulters (covers).

The idea is to fly a spacecraft mission in the shadow cast by a celestial object to enable prolonged and high-quality measurements of the corona down to the Sun’s chromosphere – the layer of the Sun’s atmosphere located just below the corona. This would effectively recreate the same total solar eclipse conditions we experience occasionally on Earth, but without the degradations caused by the atmosphere of our planet.

Our celestial neighbour, the Moon, is a more perfect sphere (its polar radius is only 2km shorter than the equatorial one) and does not have a thick atmosphere, which makes it among the best natural occulting disks found in the solar system.

A pool of engineers at the Surrey Space Centre has investigated the possibility of using the Moon as a natural occulting disk for studying the solar corona, and came up with the Mesom concept.

Mesom is a mini-satellite mission that capitalises on the chaotic dynamics of the Sun-Earth-Moon system to collect high-quality measurements of the inner Sun corona once a month, for observation windows as long as 48 minutes – much longer than the sporadic total solar eclipse on Earth.

Funded by the UK Space Agency, the feasibility study of Mesom has grown into a wider international consortium led by UCL’s Mullard Space Science Laboratory and including the Universities of Surrey and Aberystwyth, plus partners from Spain, the US and Australia.

The project has recently been submitted to the European Space Agency for consideration as a future mission. The current mission design proposes a launch in the 2030s, returning at least 400 minutes of high-resolution, low-altitude coronal observations during its two-year nominal science operations.

To collect the same amount of data on Earth, eclipse hunters would have to wait for more than 80 years. This makes Mesom a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to unravel some of the secrets of the Sun’s atmosphere.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Proposed new mission will create artificial solar eclipses in space – https://theconversation.com/proposed-new-mission-will-create-artificial-solar-eclipses-in-space-272092

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Constitutional and Administrative Law, and Public Procurement, Bangor University

For the past two years, the Welsh parliament – or Senedd – has been grappling with how to tackle deliberate lying by politicians and how to rebuild public trust in democracy.

There is broad agreement across parties in Wales that the current system offers few real consequences for dishonesty. As one Senedd member put it: “Lying flourishes in politics because we can get away with it”.

That frustration has now translated into legislative action. A bill that would make it illegal to make false or misleading statements during Welsh election campaigns has passed its first stage in the Senedd. But while the principle behind the law commands support, the detail – and the speed at which it is being pushed forward – has triggered growing unease.

The proposed ban will not be ready in time for the next Welsh election in May. Even if the legislation survives its remaining stages, it would not come into force until the 2030 election at the earliest. Ministers have suggested even that timetable may be optimistic.

This has led some Senedd members, including from the governing Labour party, to warn that Wales risks rushing through legislation that may feel symbolically satisfying but is legally flawed. One member cautioned against passing “bad law in a poor way” simply to “make people feel good about themselves”. Others have warned that the bill could unintentionally curtail free speech. If passed, Wales would become the first country in the world to ban political lying.

At the heart of the concern is this: how do you outlaw political lies without undermining democratic debate itself?

What does the bill actually do?

The bill follows recommendations made by the Senedd’s standards committee in February 2025. It called for practical reforms by 2026, alongside longer-term measures to deter deliberate deception by both Senedd members and election candidates.

Crucially, however, the bill does not introduce a general ban on lying by politicians once elected. Instead, it focuses narrowly on statements made during election campaigns. It also gives Welsh ministers the power to create a new criminal offence for false or misleading statements intended to influence election outcomes.

Some safeguards already exist. It is already illegal to make false statements about a candidate’s personal character or conduct during an election. The new proposal goes further. It potentially captures a much wider range of political speech, although exactly how wide remains unclear.

For conduct outside election periods, the committee recommended strengthening the existing system of investigation by the Senedd’s standards commissioner, rather than introducing criminal sanctions.

Why free speech is now the sticking point

The bill’s critics are not objecting to the aim of honesty in politics. Their concern is that the legislation, as currently drafted, does not define what counts as a “false or misleading” statement.

Without clear boundaries, some Senedd members fear politicians may simply choose not to speak – or avoid contentious issues altogether – rather than risk prosecution. This concern is especially acute in areas where evidence is evolving, statistics are contested, or political judgement is required.

Political debate often involves thinking on one’s feet, interpreting incomplete information, or presenting one side of a complex argument. These are not the same as deliberate lies. But critics argue that, without precision, the law could struggle to distinguish between intentional deception and legitimate disagreement.

The Senedd’s standards committee – which was asked by the Welsh government to examine the proposal – went further. It said it was “not convinced” that creating a new criminal offence would restore public trust, warning instead that “the risks and unintended consequences currently outweigh the benefits”.

Among those risks are the pressure already facing the justice system. There is also difficulty proving that a statement is objectively false and there are potential conflicts with freedom of expression.

Under article 10 of the European convention on human rights, people – including politicians – have a right to freedom of expression, particularly in political debate. While that right is not absolute, any restriction must be clearly defined, proportionate and necessary. The committee warned that a vaguely drafted offence targeting political speech could be vulnerable to legal challenge on these grounds.

Even those who support tougher standards in Welsh politics accept this tension. If politicians fear that honest mistakes, forceful opinions presented as fact or strategic campaign arguments could later be judged criminally false, debate itself may be cooled. This may weaken democracy rather than strengthening it.

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Read more:
Wales is overhauling its democracy – here’s what’s changing

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Supporters of legal enforcement argue that these risks can be managed, but only with a much tighter definition and stronger safeguards. They emphasise that any offence must target deliberate, factual deception intended to influence voters, not opinion, rhetoric or political forecasting.

Drawing that line is easier said than done, however. Would competing interpretations of economic data be criminalised? What about optimistic promises based on uncertain forecasts? If such speech were caught by the law, it could narrow the space for open political disagreement.

For that reason, some experts and policy groups have suggested alternative models. These include systems overseen by independent bodies rather than criminal courts, or sanctions focused on correction and transparency rather than punishment.

The challenge facing the Senedd is a delicate one. It must decide whether it can craft a law that is narrow enough to target intentional deception, robust enough to withstand legal scrutiny, and flexible enough to preserve the rough-and-tumble of democratic debate.

Whether that balance can be achieved – and whether the bill survives its next stages – will determine whether Wales becomes a pioneer in political honesty or a cautionary tale about legislating in haste.

Stephen Clear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. One country is trying to outlaw political lying, without curbing free speech – https://theconversation.com/one-country-is-trying-to-outlaw-political-lying-without-curbing-free-speech-273526

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Katie Keddie, PhD Candidate, Urban Transformation, Environment and Society, University of Nottingham

Climate targets have long been treated as technical challenges, focused on infrastructure and behaviour change. Yet as climate movements show, people often need to connect emotionally to the facts in order to be compelled to act by them. Whether goals mobilise action or not depends on how they are felt and negotiated in everyday life.

Nottingham, a city in the East Midlands region of the UK, is one of the most deprived local authority areas in England. Yet the city aims to become the UK’s first carbon-neutral city by 2028 by prioritising social justice as well as environmental sustainability.

My PhD research is based on interviews and collaborative workshops with 50 residents, activists, businesses, third sector organisations and elected officials in Nottingham.

My findings highlight how four emotions frequently shape how people have engaged with action towards a sustainable future, be it through love for place, fear of loss or risk, anger at injustice or hope for something better. These emotional reactions reveal why transformation rarely follows neat plans or frameworks.

Many people in Nottingham are involved in climate action because they care deeply about where they live. Love for neighbourhoods, green spaces and future generations motivates people to grow food, protect parks and work together on local projects.

This kind of care helps turn climate change from a distant, abstract problem into something rooted in place and everyday life.

Love here is a verb. It is about taking action with characteristics of care, affection, responsibility, respect and commitment in service of the futures we want to see and the things we want to protect.

Yet love can also exclude. Strong attachments to place can lead to protection in ways that shut others out.

In community green spaces, for example, efforts to protect allotments have led to suspicion of newcomers and resistance to change, resulting in the exclusion of certain community members. Love can both support and complicate just, city-wide action.

Fear and anger

Fear shapes people’s responses too. Worry about rising bills, the knock-on effects of climate change and political instability pushed some people to act, while for others this fear is paralysing.

Activists spoke about burnout, personal risk due to increasingly draconian policing over activism, and feeling stretched too thin when involved in several projects. Fear shaped how people related in communal spaces.

Much like love, fear around “others”, ownership and control sometimes led to exclusion. These anxieties were often amplified by media narratives about threat and scarcity, making collaboration more difficult. Fear can motivate action but can also limit who is allowed or able to take part.

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Read more:
Why anger, anxiety and anguish are understandable psychological reactions to the climate crisis

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My conversations with people in the city show that anger is prevalent. Citizens expressed frustration with local decision-making, national policy failures and economic systems seen to prioritise profit over people and the environment, signalling important unmet justice claims.

This anger often became a catalyst for action. It fuelled campaigns, community organising and challenges to existing power structures. Yet, if ignored, anger can lead to disillusionment and disengagement.

Hope also plays an important part in transformation efforts in the city. However, citizens note an important distinction between hope and blind optimism. Their hope is often practical and grounded, helping people keep going despite slow progress and uncertainty.

Community gardens, food projects, DIY retrofitting and other local initiatives became places where people could see change taking shape, however small. Yet hope remains fragile – continued austerity, lack of long-term funding and institutional commitments that fail to deliver real change often undermined trust and can threaten hope.

These emotions do not operate in isolation or have fixed consequences. Love often coexists with fear. Anger can fuel hope. Together, they produce complex and non-linear pathways to change.

Nottingham’s experience shows that achieving carbon neutrality is not just about technology or targets. Its success depends on whether people feel included, heard and supported.

When emotions are ignored, climate policies risk becoming superficial or exclusionary. When they are taken seriously, transformation becomes more just and practical for the places in which it is occurring.

This can be achieved through participatory processes and co-production that make space for emotional expression, recognise the labour involved, and resist technocratic approaches that sideline people’s experiences. For Nottingham and other cities around the globe facing similar pressures, attending to how transformation is felt may matter just as much as how progress is measured.

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Katie Keddie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Love, fear, anger and hope: how emotions influence climate action – https://theconversation.com/love-fear-anger-and-hope-how-emotions-influence-climate-action-270925

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chloe Casey, Lecturer in Nutrition and Behaviour, Bournemouth University

People who don’t eat meat may be less likely than meat eaters to reach the age of 100, according to a recent study. But before you reconsider your plant-based diet, there’s more to these findings than meets the eye.

The research tracked over 5,000 Chinese adults aged 80 and older who participated in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, a nationally representative study that began in 1998. By 2018, those following diets that don’t contain meat were less likely to become centenarians compared with meat eaters.

On the surface, this appears to contradict decades of research showing that plant-based diets are good for your health. Vegetarian diets, for example, have been consistently linked to lower risks of heart disease and stroke, type 2 diabetes and obesity. These benefits come partly from higher fibre intake and lower saturated fat consumption.

So what’s going on? Before drawing any firm conclusions, there are several important factors to consider.

Your body’s needs change as you age

This study focused on adults aged 80 and older, whose nutritional needs differ markedly from those of younger people. As we age, physiological changes alter both how much we eat and what nutrients we need. Energy expenditure drops, while muscle mass, bone density and appetite often decline. These shifts increase the risk of malnutrition and frailty.

Most evidence for the health benefits of diets that exclude meat comes from studies of younger adults rather than frail older populations. Some research suggests older non-meat eaters face a higher risk of fractures due to lower calcium and protein intake.

In later life, nutritional priorities shift. Rather than focusing on preventing long-term diseases, the goal becomes maintaining muscle mass, preventing weight loss and ensuring every mouthful delivers plenty of nutrients.

The study’s findings may, therefore, reflect the nutritional challenges of advanced age, rather than any inherent problems with plant-based diets. Crucially, this doesn’t diminish the well-established health benefits of these diets for younger and healthier adults.

Here’s a crucial detail: the lower likelihood of reaching 100 among non-meat eaters was only observed in underweight participants. No such association was found in older adults of healthy weight.

Being underweight in older age is already strongly linked with increased risks of frailty and death. Body weight therefore appears to be a key factor in explaining these findings.

It’s also worth remembering that this was an observational study, meaning it shows associations rather than cause and effect. Just because two things occur together doesn’t mean one causes the other.

The findings also align with the so-called “obesity paradox” in ageing, where a slightly higher body weight is often linked to better survival in later life.

Notably, the reduced likelihood of reaching 100 observed among non-meat eaters was not evident in those who included fish, dairy or eggs in their diets. These foods provide nutrients that are essential for maintaining muscle and bone health, including high-quality protein, vitamin B12, calcium and vitamin D.

Older adults following these diets were just as likely to live to 100 as meat eaters. The researchers suggested that including modest amounts of animal-source foods may help prevent undernutrition and loss of lean muscle mass in very old age, compared with strictly plant-based diets.

What this means for healthy ageing

Rather than focusing on whether one diet is universally better than another, the key message is that nutrition should be tailored to your stage of life. Energy needs decline with age (due to decreased resting energy expenditure), but some nutrient requirements increase.

Older adults still require adequate protein, vitamin B12, calcium and vitamin D – especially to preserve muscle mass and prevent frailty. In older adulthood, preventing malnutrition and weight loss often becomes more important than long-term chronic disease prevention.

Plant-based diets can still be healthy choices, but they may require careful planning and, in some cases, supplementation to ensure nutritional adequacy, particularly in later life.

The bottom line is that our nutritional needs at 90 may look very different from those at 50, and dietary advice should reflect these changes across the lifespan. What works for you now might need adjusting as you age – and that’s perfectly normal.

Chloe Casey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Are meat eaters really more likely to live to 100 than non-meat eaters, as a recent study suggests? – https://theconversation.com/are-meat-eaters-really-more-likely-to-live-to-100-than-non-meat-eaters-as-a-recent-study-suggests-273861

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Brian Thornton, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, University of Winchester

Don’t make the mistake of thinking Saipan is a film about the brutal second world war battle on this small Pacific island. It is, in fact, the tale of a ridiculous and heartbreaking football bust-up that almost tore a country apart.

On one side was Irishman Roy Keane, one of the greatest footballers of his generation. Captain of the Ireland team, he was a man with a volcanic temper and an insatiable will to win. On the other was mild-mannered manager Mick McCarthy, a Yorkshireman of Irish descent who had made his name as a brave, no-nonsense defender during his time as captain of Ireland.

The row that exploded on Saipan before the 2002 World Cup had even started was a slow-motion tragicomedy, lurching from one excruciating episode to the next. It began with a spat between Keane and McCarthy over training facilities. It escalated to a national crisis thanks to an ill-timed media interview – then developed into a full-blown international furore after one of the most brutal personal attacks ever seen in sport.

Now the story is being told in a new film starring Steve Coogan as McCarthy and rising star Éanna Hardwicke as Keane.

The row had – and possibly still has – the power to divide people into team McCarthy or team Keane. At the time, battles raged in pubs, on radio phone-ins and in countless newspaper articles.

The level of antagonism the row ignited underlined that this was about more than just football. The “battle of Saipan” somehow exposed deep faultlines in a country that was at a social, political and economic crossroads.

Before qualifying for the 2002 World Cup, Ireland hadn’t been to a major tournament since 1994. While those were wilderness years for the football team, the country was experiencing an astonishing economic miracle.

This once-impoverished country had transformed itself into one of the richest in Europe. GDP growth regularly hit a jaw-dropping 10% a year. Nicknamed the “Celtic tiger”, this economic transformation turned Ireland into a society that valued ambition and despised mediocrity. Keane epitomised this new Ireland – he was a self-made man, rich and with a ruthless drive to succeed.

McCarthy, though born and raised in England, represented old Ireland. He had been captain of the Irish team led by Jack Charlton that took the country on glorious boozy adventures to the European Championship in 1988 and the World Cup in 1990 and in 1994.

A green Irish army travelled the globe like a vast mobile party, while those left at home watched in disbelief as their little nation took its place among the elite footballing nations. It turned the gruff, flat-cap wearing Charlton into a living saint.

It was almost inevitable that these two versions of Ireland would eventually clash – but no one expected it to happen on a small Pacific island on the eve of a World Cup.

The Irish squad arrived in Saipan on May 18 2002 to acclimatise ahead of the tournament in Japan and Korea. Keane’s mood darkened immediately when he saw the training and catering facilities on the island. The pitch was rock hard. There were no goal posts – or footballs. Breakfast consisted of cheese sandwiches.

Keane was outraged at such amateurism, and the next day confronted McCarthy. He said he was going to leave the camp – but was persuaded to stay by others including his Manchester United manager, Alex Ferguson.

Keane, still struggling to keep a lid on his rage, then agreed to do an interview with two Irish newspaper journalists. He told them in no uncertain terms what he thought of Ireland’s preparations. “I believed the people at home had a right to know the truth,” Keane would later say in his book.

The interview was explosive, and the story blew up immediately – causing a sensation around the world, but most particularly in Saipan. McCarthy, utterly shocked, called a meeting with the whole squad. To clear the air, the Ireland manager thought Keane should apologise for what he had said in the articles.

But Keane, surrounded by the entire squad, saw this as an ambush and lashed out. His visceral ten-minute attack on McCarthy in the ballroom of Saipan’s Hyatt Hotel has become legendary:

I didn’t rate you as a player, I don’t rate you as a manager, and I don’t rate you as a person. I’ve got no respect for you. The only reason I have any dealings with you is that somehow you are the manager of my country. You can stick it up your bollocks.

A visibly shaken McCarthy replied: “Roy, either you go or I go – and I am going nowhere.”

Keane left and returned to his Cheshire home, which was now besieged by reporters. His daily walks with his dog Triggs were broadcast live on rolling news channels, as the world waited to see if the player would rethink his decision and return. Despite an offer from Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern to mediate, Keane made it clear there would be no U-turn.

McCarthy and the Irish team went on to perform respectably in the World Cup, losing in a penalty shoot-out to Spain in the last 16. But how far would they have gone in the tournament if Keane had played?

What happened in Saipan is still hotly debated. In Ireland, it is seen as a battle between old and new – the dynamic new age railing against the staid, complacent past. Outside of Ireland, the story is usually framed as a clash between the ideal and the reality – between purity and pragmatism.

As the Irish journalist Fintan O’Toole wrote at the time: “The battle of Saipan is thus a classical tragedy: the inevitable clash of two inexorable forces, each of which has right on its side.”

Saipan is in cinemas from January 23

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Brian Thornton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Saipan: the story behind Roy Keane’s World Cup walkout on Ireland’s football team – https://theconversation.com/saipan-the-story-behind-roy-keanes-world-cup-walkout-on-irelands-football-team-273420

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Karl Matikonis, Assistant Professor in Accountancy and Taxation, University College Dublin

When Scotland’s finance secretary, Shona Robison, delivered the Scottish budget for 2026-27 on January 13, she framed it as a budget for families that would ease pressure on household finances. Coming only a few months before the Scottish parliamentary elections in May, this budget is especially significant.

On income tax, the message from the Scottish National Party-led government was clear. Hitting out at recent UK national budgets, Robison argued, correctly, that freezing income tax thresholds means that more of people’s pay is taxed, or taxed at a higher rate. She told the Scottish Parliament: “I am making a different choice.”

While it’s true there is a difference, in reality that difference is limited. The Scottish parliament sets income tax rates and bands on most income earned by taxpayers in Scotland. Unlike in the rest of the UK, there are six rates – starter, basic, intermediate, higher, advanced and top – ranging from 19% to 48%.

What matters is not the number of bands but the size of the jump between them. Income in the intermediate band is taxed at 21% up to £43,662. Income above that point is taxed at 42%.

However, the UK parliament still controls key elements of the system, including allowances, reliefs and tax on savings and dividend income.

While some of Scotland’s income tax thresholds have been raised in this budget, others were left frozen. This means many people will still see their tax bills rise over time, even though headline tax rates have not changed. The mechanism behind this is known as fiscal drag.

Fiscal drag occurs when tax thresholds remain fixed while wages rise. As earnings increase, more income falls into higher tax bands and more people cross into higher rates. As such, governments generate more revenue without any explicit tax rise.

This matters because wages in Scotland have been rising in cash terms. In 2024, the median weekly pay for full-time employees was £739.70 (around £38,500 a year), with nominal earnings rising by 4.3% over the previous year. Median pay for men working full-time was closer to £40,000.

And those figures are already dated. Further pay settlements, particularly in the public sector, mean typical earnings in the years 2026 to 2029 are likely to go up further. Scotland’s higher-rate income tax threshold, however, remains frozen at £43,663.

That leaves a narrow gap between average earnings and the higher-rate tax band (42%). A few years of ordinary pay rises can be enough to push someone over the threshold, even if their job and living standards feel largely unchanged. As a result, fiscal drag increasingly affects mid-career professionals in areas like teaching, nursing and the civil service, rather than solely very high earners.

What the budget changed and what it did not

The recent Scottish budget raises the lower limits of the starter, basic and intermediate income tax thresholds, meaning more income is taxed at lower rates. This goes some way to protecting those whose pay falls in these bands. Ministers can say, accurately, that many lower- and middle-income earners will pay less tax than they would elsewhere in the UK.

But the higher-rate threshold remains frozen until 2028–29 at £43,663. Income above that level will be taxed at 42%. The advanced and top-rate thresholds are also unchanged. By freezing these, the Scottish government is ensuring that rising wages continue to translate into higher tax bills over time.

In design terms, it is using the same fiscal drag mechanism (albeit more selectively) that it criticises when Westminster deploys it.

Here’s a simple example. Consider a full-time worker earning £38,500 in 2024, close to the Scottish median. With annual pay rises of around 4.3%, their salary would reach roughly £40,200 in 2025, £41,900 in 2026, and just over £43,700 by 2027. Note that most of this increase in pay reflects inflation, rather than a real improvement in living standards.

But the freeze on the higher-rate threshold remains in place. So by 2027, the worker is already at or just above this higher-rate threshold. A modest further pay rise or promotion would push part of their income into the 42% band (or potentially 45%), where it had previously been taxed at 21% in the intermediate tax band.

No headline tax rate has changed, but more income is taxed – and taxed at a higher rate. This matters politically because it is the point where economics turns into politics.

Fiscal drag is not a technical quirk. It is a political instrument. As my research on UK budgets shows, when governments commit to avoiding headline tax rises, attention shifts to thresholds and design instead.

Politically, the approach allows the SNP to present the budget as both fair and responsible ahead of the May Scottish parliament elections. Ministers can point to tax cuts for lower earners while maintaining that headline tax rates have not increased.

The strategy is also shaped by tight fiscal constraints. The Scottish budget relies on a block grant from Westminster that has been squeezed by inflation, while borrowing powers are limited and spending cuts are difficult. As such, additional revenue has to come from the tax system, making fiscal drag through frozen higher thresholds an attractive option.

Freezing thresholds while nominal wages rise brings in revenue quietly and predictably, without the backlash associated with explicit tax increases. It also blurs responsibility, as higher tax bills can be attributed to inflation or pay growth, rather than deliberate policy choices. In an election year, that combination is especially attractive.

The budget cuts income tax for many people on lower incomes. Further up, it tells a different story. By freezing the higher, advanced and top-rate thresholds – which include many people who are not what most would consider “high earners” – the Scottish government has chosen to let rising nominal wages do the work of a tax increase. The effect is gradual and uneven – and people often notice it only when it appears on a payslip.

Karl Matikonis previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council for unrelated research.

– ref. Stealth tax rises are on the horizon for Scotland ahead of its election – https://theconversation.com/stealth-tax-rises-are-on-the-horizon-for-scotland-ahead-of-its-election-274163

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nick Whittaker, Tutor of International Relations, University of Sussex

Having thus far taken a highly cautious line with the capricious Donald Trump, Keir Starmer broke with the US president this week over the latter’s desire to acquire Greenland.

With the dust settling on Trump’s address to Davos and his ruling out of military force and tariffs, the UK prime minister congratulated his own approach. Starmer remarked: “We’ve got through the last few days with a mix of British pragmatism, common sense, but also that British sense of sticking to our values and our principles.”

In foreign policy, pragmatism means a lack of ideology or simply “doing what works”. It is related to conservative traditions in political thought, with roots in political philosopher Edmund Burke’s scepticism of the French Revolution.

Twentieth century philosopher Michael Oakeshott characterised his ideal, pragmatic society as a ship in a boundless ocean. The crew should simply be trying to keep afloat and on an even keel, rather than being guided by any grand ideological framework.

Pragmatism has long been associated with UK foreign policy, as both an explanatory framework and something that UK foreign policymakers claim to embody. This was exemplified by Lord Salisbury’s 19th-century posture of “splendid isolation” – having no permanent allies or friends, just permanent interests.

But, as I have written, this approach is problematic – not least because of the significant geopolitical identity that has coloured centuries of UK foreign policy.

All foreign policy is guided by values of some sort, and the UK’s is no exception. Think of the oft-repeated notions of fair play, trading and sovereignty. Prime ministers may come into office wanting to reshape the global or local landscape, only to quickly come up against the need to act in a pragmatic way in response to a sudden crisis.

Pragmatism v idealism

In recent decades, British foreign policymakers have wrestled with an ongoing tension between pragmatism and more ideological approaches. Margaret Thatcher contrasted her own apparently steely-eyed approach to European integration with the “romantic” and “misty” Europeanism of one of her foreign secretaries, Geoffrey Howe.

Thatcher’s successor, John Major, argued that it was his far more positive approach to the EU that represented the truly British posture of pragmatism.

Tony Blair too was wont to burnish his pragmatic credentials, not least over Europe. But this sat uncomfortably alongside his brief flirtation with foreign secretary Robin Cook’s “ethical foreign policy”, and his subsequent part in the highly ideological war on terror, with its unshakeable beliefs in democracy promotion and regime change.

David Cameron rejected the crusading influences of Blair by putting the UK’s involvement in strikes against Bashar al-Assad’s Syria to a Commons vote, which he lost. His subsequent calling of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU defined anew a long-running debate between pragmatists and idealists. Here, both sides claimed pragmatism as their own.

For Remainers, continued membership of an EU that broadly “worked” for the UK was the sensible, rational and pragmatic course. They saw those who wanted to leave as overly dogmatic and willing to throw the baby out with the bathwater for so-called principles.

Brexiteers pointed to growing patterns of prosperity in markets beyond Europe. They argued that regaining lost sovereignty was nothing if not pragmatic – and that their opponents had been hopelessly duped by the unrealistic (and in their eyes, dangerous) schemes of Europeans and globalists.

Starmer’s pragmatism?

How then can we characterise Starmer’s foreign policy?

The closer alignment with the EU that he has led can be read as the ideological move of a convinced Remainer. Like his Conservative predecessors, he has made much of the UK’s support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. This signifies the foregrounding of values such as sovereignty, nationhood and the rules-based international order.

Similarly, the 2024 deal with Mauritius over the Chagos islands has been represented as the righting of a historic colonial wrong.

Yet there is a trace of pragmatism in all these policies, too. The realignment with the EU has taken place slowly, with great caution and many accompanying reassurances of red lines. The tough stance over Ukraine can also be read in a pragmatic fashion, given the perceived need to align with European and Nato allies amid Trump’s ratcheting up of tensions.

For all of the appealing whiff of decolonial justice surrounding the Chagos deal, this too was infused with a healthy dose of pragmatism. In spite of Trump’s sudden condemnation of it, he had initially backed the deal precisely because of its pragmatism. It protected the US-led base at Diego Garcia and ensured a vital strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean.

Further instances of foreign policy under Starmer ultimately demonstrate the limits of idealism in British foreign policy. The reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been characterised by outrage and (especially under Boris Johnson) a Churchillian “whatever it takes” attitude in favour of self-determination. But other situations have been approached with far more caution.

Starmer and his first foreign secretary, the usually loudly principled David Lammy, dragged their feet over condemnation of Israel in Gaza, infuriating some of the Labour party’s leftwing base. Lammy had earlier sought to resurrect Cook’s ethical foreign policy. Yet, whatever their instincts, pragmatically siding with the US tends to win out when it comes to Israel.

Statements on Venezuela were also couched with extreme caution: pragmatism recognising the lack of British interest, let alone clout, in South America.

Starmer’s post-Davos remarks exemplify the seemingly contradictory melding of pragmatism with principle. In reality, these concepts can be difficult to entangle. They are (as with Brexit) often a matter for the eye of the beholder: one man’s pragmatism is another’s principle.

When it comes to the cornerstones of UK policy, such as Nato and the transatlantic alliance, the line is particularly blurry. But over Greenland and the rollercoaster relationship with Trump, Starmer has indeed had to walk a careful line between pragmatism and principle. This is a rare example of a politician’s comment that one can take at face value.

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Nick Whittaker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Starmer’s response to Trump’s Greenland outburst shows good old British pragmatism only goes so far – https://theconversation.com/starmers-response-to-trumps-greenland-outburst-shows-good-old-british-pragmatism-only-goes-so-far-274137