La pilule, première méthode de contraception en France, mais pas dans le monde

Source: The Conversation – France in French (2) – By Gilles Pison, Anthropologue et démographe, professeur au Muséum national d’histoire naturelle et chercheur associé à l’INED, Muséum national d’histoire naturelle (MNHN)

Pilule contraceptive Wikipedia, CC BY

Après le vote il y a 50 ans de la loi Neuwirth autorisant la contraception, la pilule est devenue très vite la première méthode contraceptive en France. Malgré la controverse sur les pilules de nouvelles générations en 2012 qui a entraîné son léger recul, cette méthode reste la plus courante : près d’une Française sur deux ne souhaitant pas être enceinte l’utilise. Est-ce aussi le cas dans les autres pays du monde ? Quelles méthodes sont utilisées ailleurs ?

De nos jours, la plupart des couples ont le nombre d’enfants qu’ils veulent et quand ils le veulent. En 2015, près de deux sur trois dans le monde utilisent une méthode de contraception, comme le montre la figure ci-dessous. Le tiers restant soit s’apprête à avoir un enfant – la femme est enceinte – soit souhaite en avoir un prochainement, soit ne le souhaite pas mais ne se protège pas. La contraception est répandue presque partout dans le monde à l’exception de l’Afrique où elle n’est encore utilisée que par un tiers des femmes âgées de 15 à 49 ans mariées ou en union. Elle est beaucoup utilisée en Afrique du Nord et en Afrique australe, mais c’est en Afrique intertropicale qu’elle l’est peu, seulement une femme sur quatre y ayant recours.

La contraception dans le monde et les différents continents en 2015.
Gilles Pison à partir de données ONU, CC BY

Stérilisation : majoritaire dans le monde, mais en baisse

Les méthodes de contraception les plus utilisées dans le monde sont, par ordre d’importance, la stérilisation (dans 34 % des cas), le stérilet (22 %), la pilule contraceptive (14 %), le préservatif (12 %), et l’injection ou l’implant hormonal (8 %). Parmi les autres méthodes moins utilisées, on trouve le retrait et l’abstinence périodique.

La stérilisation a cependant un peu reculé au cours des vingt dernières années, à la fois du côté féminin et masculin – 33 % des femmes ne souhaitant pas être enceintes et se protégeant pour cela avaient recours à la stérilisation féminine en 1994, contre 30 % en 2015. La stérilisation masculine, beaucoup moins fréquente déjà il y a 20 ans, a encore diminué – 8 % de couples en 1994, contre 4 % en 2015. Le recul de la stérilisation s’est fait au profit principalement du préservatif, dont l’usage a été promu pour lutter contre l’épidémie de sida, et des méthodes hormonales, notamment l’injection, utilisée par 2 % des femmes en 1994 et 7 % en 2015. Ces évolutions reflètent pour partie l’évolution de la population d’utilisatrices à l’échelle mondiale, qui compte une part croissante de femmes d’Afrique subsaharienne, la population de cette région étant celle qui a augmenté le plus, et le recours à la contraception y étant à la hausse. Or l’injection hormonale et le préservatif sont des méthodes répandues en Afrique subsaharienne, contrairement à la stérilisation qui est peu pratiquée.

Des modes variables d’un pays à l’autre

D’un pays à l’autre les méthodes de contraception varient beaucoup, comme on peut le voir sur la figure ci-dessous.

Les méthodes de contraception dans le monde et dans une sélection de pays en 2015 (les pays sont classés par importance décroissante de la stérilisation).
Gilles Pison à partir de données ONU, CC BY

En France, la pilule domine, près de la moitié des femmes l’utilisant comme déjà mentionné. Viennent ensuite le stérilet, utilisé par un quart des femmes, puis le préservatif (10 %). La stérilisation ne concerne que 6 % des couples ne souhaitant pas avoir d’enfant – dans un cas sur cinq c’est l’homme qui est stérilisé, dans quatre cas sur cinq, c’est la femme. Les méthodes utilisées en France n’ont guère changé au cours des 20 dernières années mis à part l’importance accrue du préservatif en lien avec l’épidémie de sida, et un léger recul de la pilule au profit des autres méthodes depuis 2012.

En Inde, la stérilisation est la principale méthode de limitation des naissances. Elle est utilisée par les deux tiers des couples qui ne veulent pas d’enfants. La plupart du temps, c’est la femme qui est stérilisée, alors qu’il y a plusieurs dizaines d’années, seule la moitié des couples stérilisés était dans ce cas, l’homme étant stérilisé dans l’autre moitié des cas. La pilule et le stérilet sont très peu utilisés.

En Chine, la stérilisation est très utilisée, comme en Inde. Six fois sur sept, c’est la femme qui est stérilisée, et une fois sur sept, c’est l’homme. Mais les Chinoises utilisent encore plus le stérilet : un sur deux portés dans le monde l’est par une Chinoise. Par contre, elles utilisent très peu la pilule.

Au Brésil, la stérilisation est la première méthode, comme en Inde, et ce sont également les femmes qui sont stérilisées, beaucoup de maris refusant de l’être, comme dans presque tous les pays latins. La deuxième méthode est la pilule contraceptive. Le stérilet est pratiquement inconnu.

Et d’autres méthodes

En Égypte, contrairement à la situation en Inde, en Chine ou au Brésil, la stérilisation est peu fréquente et la principale méthode de contraception est le stérilet. La pilule est également utilisée, ainsi que l’injection. Comprenant des hormones proches de la progestérone, et répétée tous les trois mois, elle a une action analogue à la pilule contraceptive.

En Indonésie, comme en Égypte, la stérilisation est peu fréquente et la pilule relativement diffusée. Mais la méthode la plus fréquente est l’injection, utilisée par la moitié des femmes ne souhaitant pas être enceintes.

En Haïti la situation est similaire à celle de l’Indonésie avec une domination encore plus forte de l’injection : elle est utilisée par deux Haïtiennes ne souhaitant pas être enceintes sur trois.

Au Kenya, les méthodes hormonales autres que la pilule sont également utilisées par les deux tiers des femmes se protégeant, mais elles recourent à l’injection dans seulement deux cas sur trois, choisissant l’implant dans un cas sur trois. Petit bâtonnet implanté sous la peau et remplacé tous les trois ans, il contient des hormones proches de la progestérone qui diffusent de façon lente et continue dans le corps et ont une action analogue à celle de la pilule contraceptive.

En Algérie, presque toute la contraception repose sur la pilule, huit femmes ne souhaitant pas être enceintes sur dix l’utilisant, la plus forte proportion au monde. La proportion est très élevée aussi au Maroc où trois femmes sur quatre l’utilisent.

Au Japon, la méthode de contraception préférée est le préservatif : les Japonais en sont les plus gros consommateurs au monde. En revanche, la pilule n’est pratiquement pas utilisée, et le stérilet non plus. Ils sont considérés comme dangereux.

Cette revue de la situation dans quelques pays illustre combien les usages varient dans le monde en matière de contraception.

Les datavisualisations de cet article ont été réalisées par Marie Simon.

The Conversation

Gilles Pison ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. La pilule, première méthode de contraception en France, mais pas dans le monde – https://theconversation.com/la-pilule-premiere-methode-de-contraception-en-france-mais-pas-dans-le-monde-89207

Climat des affaires : optimisme record en Europe

Source: The Conversation – France in French (2) – By Philippe Dupuy, Professeur Associé au département Gestion, Droit et Finance, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)

Les niveaux enregistrés aussi bien en Europe qu’aux États-Unis permettent d’anticiper un maintien de la croissance économique sur des niveaux relativement importants. Pixabay, CC BY

Grenoble École de Management et l’association des Directeurs financiers et des contrôleurs de gestion (DFCG) recueillent chaque trimestre l’avis des responsables financiers français. Les résultats sont agrégés au niveau mondial par un réseau d’universités coordonnées par Duke University aux États-Unis. Pour le quatrième trimestre 2017, l’enquête s’est déroulée du 21 novembre au 7 décembre 2017.


Notre indicateur de climat des affaires s’inscrit, à nouveau, en hausse en Europe ce trimestre pour atteindre 66,9 contre 63,4 au trimestre précédent sur une échelle de zéro à cent. C’est le plus haut niveau que nous avons observé depuis l’origine de notre série en 2002. Le précédent point haut datait de décembre 2006 (66,3). Sur un an glissant, l’indicateur enregistre un bond de plus de 10 points (56,6 en décembre 2017). Il est essentiellement tiré par l’Allemagne (78,6) et la France (64,5) mais il est frappant de constater que pour la première fois depuis la crise de 2008, l’ensemble des pays pour lesquels nous avons des données dépasse le niveau de 55 et affiche un niveau d’optimisme compatible avec une croissance économique soutenue.

Néanmoins, certains pays restent à la traîne. C’est le cas du Royaume-Uni, qui ferme la marche avec un niveau d’optimisme de 58, soit près de 9 points en deçà de la moyenne de ses voisins européens. Nous observons cet écart défavorable à l’économie britannique depuis le vote du Brexit en juin 2016. Il est important néanmoins de noter que nous n’avons pas de données pour la Grèce pour ce trimestre, pays qui affiche généralement les plus bas niveaux d’optimisme selon notre indicateur.

Aux États-Unis, le climat des affaires reste encore très favorable à la croissance : il s’établit à 68,6 contre 65,9 au trimestre précédent. Ces niveaux restent cependant en deçà du point le plus élevé que nous observons sur l’ensemble de la série : 73,6 en mars 2004. Il est important de noter que les niveaux enregistrés aussi bien en Europe qu’aux États-Unis permettent d’anticiper un maintien de la croissance économique sur des niveaux relativement importants. Mais l’Europe a désormais rattrapé le retard cyclique de quelques trimestres régulièrement observé par le passé. La fermeture de cet écart pourrait indiquer un ralentissement de la progression des climats des affaires dans les deux zones pour les trimestres à venir.

Dans le reste du monde, le climat des affaires continue aussi de s’améliorer. En Amérique latine, nous enregistrons un optimisme moyen de 73 avec notamment 71 au Pérou et au Mexique. Au Brésil, le climat des affaires semble désormais stabilisé sur des niveaux permettant une accélération de la croissance (61). Seul point noir de notre tableau : l’Équateur, qui affiche un optimisme extrêmement faible à seulement 28.

En Asie, le climat moyen des affaires fait un bond de 6 points environ pour atteindre 66,0 contre 60,2 au trimestre précédent. L’ensemble des pays pour lesquels nous recueillons des données se situe au-dessus de 50, c’est-à-dire sur des niveaux favorables à une croissance de l’activité. Enfin, en Afrique, les indicateurs de climat des affaires continuent de s’améliorer pour atteindre 53 contre 52 au trimestre précédent.

Accélération de l’innovation

Pour ce trimestre, nous avons demandé aux responsables financiers des entreprises d’évaluer l’impact des innovations sur leur activité. Les résultats montrent que 52,4 % des entreprises en Europe observent une accélération du rythme des innovations depuis trois ans. C’est particulièrement le cas pour les grandes entreprises du secteur de la finance (75 %) et de la technologie (79 %). En revanche, lorsqu’il s’agit du commerce aux détails, l’accélération des innovations n’est perçue que par 25 % des entreprises. C’est en Allemagne que les entreprises ont très majoritairement répondu « oui » à cette question (82,6 %) et c’est d’ailleurs en Allemagne que l’effort d’adaptation apparaît comme le plus important. Ainsi, 94,7 % des entreprises d’outre-Rhin déclarent augmenter leurs investissements et 78,9 % les budgets de R&D pour faire face à cette accélération.

En France, la perception est bien plus mesurée puisque seules 37 % des entreprises semblent devoir faire face à une accélération des innovations. En réaction, en France, seules 76,5 % des entreprises augmentent les dépenses d’investissement et 52,9 % font un effort en termes de R&D. En comparaison, aux États-Unis, 66 % des entreprises constatent une accélération des innovations et répondent par plus d’investissement (76 %) et plus de R&D (46 %).

Néanmoins, de manière rassurante, nous n’observons pas d’emballement des comportements face à l’accélération des innovations. Ainsi, en Europe, peu d’entreprises cherchent à s’engager dans des projets plus risqués. Elles sont également peu nombreuses à réduire leur horizon de gestion, voire à changer leurs méthodes de travail. Ce n’est pas tout à fait le cas aux États-Unis où 63 % des entreprises déclarent gérer leurs opérations à plus court terme et 31 % indiquent choisir des projets plus risqués.

Équilibre vie professionnelle/vie personnelle

Pour ce trimestre, nous avons également interrogé les responsables financiers quant à l’équilibre entre leur vie professionnelle et leur vie personnelle. La majorité d’entre eux nous ont indiqué vouloir diminuer leur temps de travail, et ce d’ailleurs quel que soit le volume de celui-ci aujourd’hui. De manière surprenante, c’est en Europe continentale et dans certains pays d’Asie que le volume horaire quotidien semble le plus important, en particulier dans les grandes entreprises.

Par exemple en France, un responsable financier consacrerait selon nos observations 75 % de son temps « d’éveil » quotidien à l’activité professionnelle, soit environ 60 à 65 heures par semaines. Paradoxalement, dans la sphère anglo-américaine, ce temps professionnel n’occuperait que 66 % du temps d’éveil pour un total d’environ 55 heures par semaine à temps de sommeil égal. Pour combler cet écart, il faudrait qu’un responsable financier américain dorme 2h30 de moins que son équivalent français chaque jour ! C’est bien entendu la prise en compte du nombre de jours travaillés qui permet de rétablir la balance, les jours de congé étant plus nombreux en Europe continentale… Mais encore faut-il pouvoir les prendre !


L’enquête Duke University–Grenoble École de Management mesure chaque trimestre depuis plus de 20 ans le climat des affaires tel que perçu par les responsables financiers des entreprises à travers le monde. L’enquête est courte (environ 10 questions). Elle recueille plus de 1 200 réponses anonymes d’entreprises de tous secteurs et de toutes tailles. C’est désormais la plus grande enquête de ce type dans le monde. Une analyse détaillée par pays peut être envoyée à chaque participant.

Les datavisualisations de cet article ont été réalisées par Diane Frances.

The Conversation

Philippe Dupuy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Climat des affaires : optimisme record en Europe – https://theconversation.com/climat-des-affaires-optimisme-record-en-europe-89417

I’m a business professor who asked dozens of former students how they define success. Here are their lessons for today’s grads

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Patrick Abouchalache, Lecturer in Strategy and Innovation, Boston University

As the Class of 2025 graduates into an uncertain and fast-changing working world, they face a crucial question: What does it mean to be successful?

Is it better to take a job that pays more, or one that’s more prestigious? Should you prioritize advancement, relationship building, community impact or even the opportunity to live somewhere new? Sorting through these questions can feel overwhelming.

I am a business school professor who spends a lot of time mentoring students and alumni in Generation Z – those born between 1997 and 2012. As part of this effort, I’ve surveyed about 300 former undergraduate students and spoken at length with about 50 of them.

Through these conversations, I’ve watched them wrestle with the classic conflicts of young adulthood – such as having to balance external rewards like money against internal motivations like wanting to be of service.

I recently revisited their stories and reflections, and I compiled the most enduring insights to offer to the next generation of graduates.

Here’s their collective advice to the Class of 2025:

1. Define what matters most to you

Success starts with self-reflection. It means setting aside society’s noise and defining your own values.

When people are driven by internal rewards like curiosity, purpose or pleasure in an activity itself – rather than outside benefits such as money – psychologists say they have “intrinsic motivation.”

Research shows that people driven by intrinsic motivation tend to display higher levels of performance, persistence and satisfaction. Harvard Business School professor Teresa Amabile’s componential theory further suggests that creativity flourishes when people’s skills align with their strongest intrinsic interests.

The alternative is to “get caught up in society’s expectations of success,” as one consulting alum put it. She described struggling to choose between a job offer at a Fortune 500 company or one at a lesser-known independent firm. In the end, she chose to go with the smaller business. It was, she stressed, “the right choice for me.” This is crucial advice: Make yourself proud, not others.

One related principle I share with students is the “Tell your story” rule. If a job doesn’t allow you to tell your story – in other words, if it doesn’t mirror your vision, values, talents and goals – keep looking for a new role.

2. Strive for balance, not burnout

A fulfilling life includes time for relationships, health and rest. While many young professionals feel endless pressure to hustle, the most fulfilled alumni I spoke with learned to take steps to protect their personal well-being.

For example, a banking alum told me that business once dominated his thoughts “24/7.” He continued, “I’m happier now that I make more time for a social life and paying attention to all my relationships – professional, personal, community, and let’s not forget myself.”

And remember that balance and motivations can change throughout your life. As one alum explained: “Your goals change and therefore your definition of success changes. I think some of the most successful people are always adapting what success means to them – chasing success even if they are already successful.”

3. Be kind, serve others and maximize your ‘happy circle’

“Some people believe to have a positive change in the world you must be a CEO or have a ton of money,” another alum told me. “But spreading happiness or joy can happen at any moment, has no cost, and the results are priceless.”

Many alumni told me that success isn’t just a matter of personal achievement – it’s about giving back to society. That could be through acts of kindness, creativity, innovation, or other ways of improving people’s lives. A retail alum shared advice from her father: “When your circle is happy, you are going to be happy,” she said. “It’s sort of an upward spiral.”

Your “happy circle” doesn’t need to consist of people you know. An alum who went into the pharmaceutical industry said his work’s true reward was measured in “tens of thousands if not millions of people” in better health thanks to his efforts.

In fact, your happy circle doesn’t even need to be exclusively human. An alum who works in ranching said he valued the well-being of animals – and their riders – more than money or praise.

4. Be a good long-term steward of your values

Success isn’t just about today – it’s what you stand for.

Several alumni spoke passionately about stewardship: the act of preserving and passing on values, relationships and traditions. This mindset extended beyond family to employees, customers and communities. As one alum who majored in economics put it, success is “leaving a mark on the world and creating a legacy that extends beyond one’s quest for monetary gain.”

One alum defined success as creating happiness and stability not just for herself, but for her loved ones. Another, who works in hospitality, said he had a duty to further his employees’ ambitions and help them grow and develop – creating a legacy that will outlast any title or paycheck.

In an analysis by the organizational consulting firm Korn Ferry, Gen Z employees were found to be more prone to burnout when their employers lacked clear values. These findings reinforce what my students already know: Alignment between your values and your work is key to success.

Final words for the Class of 2025

To the latest crop of grads, I offer this advice: Wherever life takes you next — a family business or corporate office, Wall Street or Silicon Valley, or somewhere you can’t even imagine now — remember that your career will be long and full of ups and downs.

You’ll make tough choices. You’ll face pressures. But if you stay grounded, invest in your well-being, celebrate your happy circle and honor your values, you’ll look back one day and see not just a job well done, but a life well lived.

Bon voyage!

The Conversation

Patrick Abouchalache does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. I’m a business professor who asked dozens of former students how they define success. Here are their lessons for today’s grads – https://theconversation.com/im-a-business-professor-who-asked-dozens-of-former-students-how-they-define-success-here-are-their-lessons-for-todays-grads-256189

When does a kid become an adult?

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Jonathan B. Santo, Professor of Psychology, University of Nebraska Omaha

They might not be grown-ups yet. Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.


When does a kid become an adult? – Avery, age 8, Los Angeles


Not everyone grows up at the same pace, even though U.S. law holds that you reach adulthood when you turn 18. This is the age where you are treated like an adult in terms of criminal responsibility. However, states differ on the “civil age of majority,” which means that you don’t necessarily get all the rights and privileges reserved for grown-ups at that point.

For example, U.S. citizens may vote or get a tattoo without their parents’ consent when they’re 18, but they can’t legally buy or consume alcohol until their 21st birthday. Young Americans are subject to extra restrictions and fees if they want to rent a car before they’re 25 – even if they got a driver’s license when they turned 16 and have been earning a living for years.

Even physical signs of maturity don’t provide an easy answer to this question. Puberty brings about physical changes associated with adulthood like facial hair or breast development. It also marks the onset of sexual maturity – being able to have children.

Those changes don’t happen at the same time for everyone.

For example, girls typically start going through puberty and beginning to look like adults at an earlier age than boys. Some people don’t look like grown-ups until they’re well into their 20s.

In my view, as a professor of developmental psychology, what really matters in terms of becoming an adult is how people feel and behave, and the responsibilities they handle.

18th Birthday cake with fruit and chocolate.
Even if you’ve developed a sophisticated palate by the time you turn 18, you still aren’t necessarily a full-fledged adult.
nedomacki/Getty Images

Age at milestones may vary

Because everybody is unique, there’s no standard timeline for growing up. Some people learn how to control their emotions, develop the judgment to make good decisions and manage to earn enough to support themselves by the age of 18.

Others take longer.

Coming of age also varies due to cultural differences. In some families, it’s expected that you’ll remain financially dependent on your parents until your mid-20s as you get a college education or job training.

Even within one family, your personality, experiences, career path and specific circumstances can influence how soon you’d be expected to shoulder adult responsibilities.

A young blonde woman stands while her photo is taken.
Drew Barrymore attends a movie premiere at the age of 15 – one year after a judge declared her to be an adult in the eyes of the law through emancipation.
Ron Galella, Ltd. via GettyImages

Some young people technically enter adulthood before they turn 18 through a process called “emancipation” – a legal status indicating that a young person is responsible for their own financial affairs and medical obligations.

Economic independence is hard to attain for young teens, however, because child labor is restricted and regulated in the U.S. by federal law, with states setting some of these rules. States also determine how old you have to be to get married. In most states, that’s 18 years old. But some states allow marriage at any age.

Differentiating between kids and adults

Understanding the differences between how children and adults think can help explain when a kid becomes an adult.

For example, children tend to think concretely and may struggle more than adults with abstract concepts like justice or hypothetical scenarios.

Kids and teens also have shorter attention spans than adults and are more easily distracted, whereas adults are generally better at filtering out distractions.

What’s more, children, especially little ones, tend to have more trouble controlling their emotions. They’re more prone to crying or screaming when they are frustrated or upset than adults.

One reason why being fully grown up by the time you turn 18 or even 21 might not be possible is because of our brains. The prefrontal cortex, which is a part of the brain that plays a crucial role in planning and weighing risks, doesn’t fully develop in most people before their 25th birthday.

Making choices that have lifelong consequences

The delay in the brain’s maturity can make it hard for young adults to fully consider the real-world consequences of their actions and choices. This mismatch may explain why adolescents and people in their early 20s often engage in risky or even reckless behavior – such as driving too fast, not wearing a seatbelt, using dangerous drugs, binge drinking or stealing things.

Despite the medical evidence about the late maturation of the brain, the law doesn’t provide any leeway for whether someone has truly matured if they’re accused of a breaking the law. Once they’re 18 years old, Americans can be tried legally as adults for serious crimes, including murder.

These still-developing parts of the brain also help explain why children are more susceptible to peer pressure. For instance, adolescents are more prone to confess to crimes they didn’t commit under police interrogation, partly because they can’t properly weigh the long-term consequences of their decisions.

However, there are benefits to adolescents’ having a higher tolerance to risks and risk-taking. This can help explain why many young people are motivated to engage in protests regarding climate change and other causes.

Feeling like a real adult

In North America, some young people who by many standards are adults – in that they are over 20 years old, own a car and have a job – may not feel like they’re grown-ups regardless of what the law has to say about it. The psychologist Jeffrey Arnett coined the term “emerging adults” to describe Americans who are 21-25 years old but don’t yet feel like they’re grown-ups.

When someone becomes an adult, regardless of what the law says, really depends on the person.

There are 25-year-olds with full-time jobs and their own children who may still not feel like adults and still rely on their parents for a lot of things grown-ups typically handle. There are 17-year-olds who make all of their own doctor’s appointments, take care of their younger siblings or grandparents, and do all the grocery shopping, meal planning and laundry for their household. They probably see themselves as adults.

Growing up is about gaining experiences, making mistakes and learning from them, while also taking responsibility for your own actions. As there’s no single definition of adulthood, everyone has to decide for themselves whether or not they’ve turned into a grown-up yet.


Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

The Conversation

Jonathan B. Santo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. When does a kid become an adult? – https://theconversation.com/when-does-a-kid-become-an-adult-246287

Where tomorrow’s scientists prefer to live − and where they’d rather not

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Christopher P. Scheitle, Associate Professor of Sociology, West Virginia University

Many students have strong feelings about where they want to move after graduation. Tony Garcia/Stone via Getty Images

Graduate students interested in an academic career after graduation day have often been told they need to be open to moving somewhere they may not want to live. This advice is because of how hard it is to get a tenure-track professor position.

These days, this advice may be less relevant as graduate students are increasingly pursuing and ending up in careers outside of academia.

Where graduate students want to settle post-graduation has potential consequences for communities and states across the country that depend more and more on a steady stream of skilled workers to power their economies. Locations seen as undesirable may struggle to attract and retain the next generation of scientists, engineers, professors and other professions filled by today’s graduate students.

We are sociologists who are examining some of the factors that influence graduate students’ educational and career paths as part of a research project supported by the National Science Foundation. In March 2025 we distributed a survey to a sample of U.S.-based graduate students in five natural and social science disciplines: physics, chemistry, biology, psychology and sociology.

As part of our survey, we asked students to identify states they would prefer to live in and places where they would be unwilling to go. To some extent, our findings match some past anecdotes and evidence about the varying number of applications received for academic positions across different states or regions.

But little data has directly assessed students’ preferences, and our survey also provides some evidence that some states’ policies are having a negative impact on their ability to attract highly educated people.

Most preferred, most unwilling

For our study, we built our sample from the top 60 graduate programs for each of the five disciplines based on rankings from U.S. News and World Report. We received responses from nearly 2,000 students. Almost all of these students – 98%, specifically – are pursuing Ph.D.s in their respective fields.

As part of our survey, we asked students to identify locations where they would “prefer” to live and also those where they would be “unwilling” to live after finishing their graduate program. For each of these questions, we presented students with a list of all states along with the option of “outside of the United States.”

Just looking at the overall percentages, California tops the list of preferred places, with 49% of all survey-takers stating a preference to live there, followed by New York at 45% and Massachusetts with 41%.

On the other hand, Alabama was selected most often as a state students said they’d be unwilling to move to, with 58% declaring they wouldn’t want to live there. This was followed by Mississippi and Arkansas, both with just above 50% saying they’d be unwilling to move to either state.

Clusters of preference

While the two lists in many respects appear like inversions of one another, there are some exceptions to that. Looking beyond the overall percentages for each survey question, we used statistical analysis to identify underlying groups or clusters of states that are more similar to each other across both the “prefer” and “unwilling” questions.

One cluster, represented by California, New York and Massachusetts, is characterized by a very high level of preference and a low level of unwillingness. About 35% to 50% of students expressed a preference for living in these places, while only 5% to 10% said they would be unwilling to live in them. The response of “outside of the United States” is also in this category, which is noteworthy given recent concerns about the current generation of Ph.D. students looking to leave the country and efforts by other nations to recruit them.

A second cluster represents states where the preference levels are a bit lower, 20% to 30%, and the unwillingness levels are a bit higher, 7% to 15%. Still, these are states for which graduate students hold generally favorable opinions about living in after finishing their programs. This cluster includes states such as Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey.

A third group of states represents locations for which the rate of preference is similar to the rate of unwillingness, in the range of 10% to 20%. This cluster includes states such as Minnesota, Delaware and Virginia.

The fourth and fifth clusters consist of states where the rate of unwillingness exceeds the rate of preference, with the size of the gap distinguishing the two clusters. In the fourth cluster, at least some students – 5% to 10% – express a preference for living in them, while around 30% to 40% say they are unwilling to live in them. This cluster includes Florida, Montana, South Carolina and Utah.

Almost no students express a preference for living in the states contained in the fifth cluster, while the highest percentages – 40% to 60% – express an unwillingness to live in them. This cluster includes Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Signs of current politics

Many factors influence our preferences for where we want to live, including family, weather and how urban, rural or suburban it is. The politics of a community can also influence our perceptions of a place’s desirability.

Indeed, political factors may be of particular concern to graduate students. In recent years, some states have taken a more hostile stance toward specific academic disciplines, institutions of higher education in general, or professions that are of interest to graduate students. While states such as Florida and Texas have been leading such efforts, many others have followed.

Interestingly, our statistical grouping of states finds that students’ unwillingness to live in states such as Texas, Florida, Georgia and Ohio is higher than we would expect given those states’ corresponding preference levels. For example, about 10% of students selected Texas as a place they would prefer to live in after graduation. Looking at other states with similar preference levels, we would expect about 10% to 20% of students to say they are unwilling to live in Texas. Instead, this percentage is actually 37%. Similarly, 5% of students say they would prefer to live in Florida. Other states with this preference rate have an unwillingness rate of around 35%, but Florida’s is 45%.

Although our data does not tell us for sure, these gaps could be a function of these states’ own policies or alignment with federal policies seen as hostile to graduate students and their future employers.

These findings suggest that communities and employers in some states might continue to face particularly steep hurdles in recruiting graduate students for employment once they finish their degrees.

The Conversation

Christopher P. Scheitle receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the John Templeton Foundation. This article is based on a study supported by the National Science Foundation (Award #2344563).

Katie Corcoran receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the John Templeton Foundation, and the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute.

Taylor Remsburg receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the John Templeton Foundation as a research assistant. This article is based on a study supported by the National Science Foundation (Award #2344563).

ref. Where tomorrow’s scientists prefer to live − and where they’d rather not – https://theconversation.com/where-tomorrows-scientists-prefer-to-live-and-where-theyd-rather-not-254431

Taking intermittent quizzes reduces achievement gaps and enhances online learning, even in highly distracting environments

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Jason C.K. Chan, Professor of Psychology, Iowa State University

More Americans are learning remotely. Drazen/E+ via Getty Images

Inserting brief quiz questions into an online lecture can boost learning and may reduce racial achievement gaps, even when students are tuning in remotely in a distracting environment.

That’s a main finding of our recent research published in Communications Psychology. With co-authors Dahwi Ahn, Hymnjyot Gill and Karl Szpunar, we present evidence that adding mini-quizzes into an online lecture in science, technology, engineering or mathematics – collectively known as STEM – can boost learning, especially for Black students.

In our study, we included over 700 students from two large public universities and five two-year community colleges across the U.S. and Canada. All the students watched a 20-minute video lecture on a STEM topic. Each lecture was divided into four 5-minute segments, and following each segment, the students either answered four brief quiz questions or viewed four slides reviewing the content they’d just seen.

This procedure was designed to mimic two kinds of instructions: those in which students must answer in-lecture questions and those in which the instructor regularly goes over recently covered content in class.

All students were tested on the lecture content both at the end of the lecture and a day later.

When Black students in our study watched a lecture without intermittent quizzes, they underperformed Asian, white and Latino students by about 17%. This achievement gap was reduced to a statistically nonsignificant 3% when students answered intermittent quiz questions. We believe this is because the intermittent quizzes help students stay engaged with the lecture.

To simulate the real-world environments that students face during online classes, we manipulated distractions by having some participants watch just the lecture; the rest watched the lecture with either distracting memes on the side or with TikTok videos playing next to it.

Surprisingly, the TikTok videos enhanced learning for students who received review slides. They performed about 8% better on the end-of-day tests than those who were not shown any memes or videos, and similar to the students who answered intermittent quiz questions. Our data further showed that this unexpected finding occurred because the TikTok videos encouraged participants to keep watching the lecture.

For educators interested in using these tactics, it is important to know that the intermittent quizzing intervention only works if students must answer the questions. This is different from asking questions in a class and waiting for a volunteer to answer. As many teachers know, most students never answer questions in class. If students’ minds are wandering, the requirement of answering questions at regular intervals brings students’ attention back to the lecture.

This intervention is also different from just giving students breaks during which they engage in other activities, such as doodling, answering brain teaser questions or playing a video game.

Why it matters

Online education has grown dramatically since the pandemic. Between 2004 and 2016, the percentage of college students enrolling in fully online degrees rose from 5% to 10%. But by 2022, that number nearly tripled to 27%.

Relative to in-person classes, online classes are often associated with lower student engagement and higher failure and withdrawal rates.

Research also finds that the racial achievement gaps documented in regular classroom learning are magnified in remote settings, likely due to unequal access to technology.

Our study therefore offers a scalable, cost-effective way for schools to increase the effectiveness of online education for all students.

What’s next?

We are now exploring how to further refine this intervention through experimental work among both university and community college students.

As opposed to observational studies, in which researchers track student behaviors and are subject to confounding and extraneous influences, our randomized-controlled study allows us to ascertain the effectiveness of the in-class intervention.

Our ongoing research examines the optimal timing and frequency of in-lecture quizzes. We want to ensure that very frequent quizzes will not hinder student engagement or learning.

The results of this study may help provide guidance to educators for optimal implementation of in-lecture quizzes.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

The Conversation

Jason C.K. Chan receives funding from the USA National Science Foundation.

Zohara Assadipour does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Taking intermittent quizzes reduces achievement gaps and enhances online learning, even in highly distracting environments – https://theconversation.com/taking-intermittent-quizzes-reduces-achievement-gaps-and-enhances-online-learning-even-in-highly-distracting-environments-254046

Trump’s battle with elite universities overlooks where most students actually go to college

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Amy Li, Associate Professor of Higher Education, Florida International University

There are nearly 20 million undergraduate college students in the United States. Anadolu/Getty Images

Headlines often mention the ongoing power struggle between President Donald Trump’s administration and private colleges such as Columbia University and Harvard University.

But such elite universities educate only a small portion of America’s total undergraduate population, which stood at 20 million in fall 2024.

As an associate professor of higher education, I have published research on policies that affect college access, retention and graduation. My work has examined data across different types of higher education institutions.

The Ivies and other elites

Less than 1% of American college students attend elite private colleges.

A small group of colleges, consisting of Ivy League schools and other highly selective universities known as “Ivy-Plus,” fit in this category.

The Ivy League consists of eight private schools that formed an athletic conference in the 1950s. The member universities are known for their academic excellence.

The Ivy-Plus are highly prestigious colleges located across the country with similar reputations for outstanding academics such as Stanford University, Duke University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

These colleges have extremely competitive admissions, often accepting less than 10% of applicants.

They enroll students from high-income backgrounds more than any other type of institution. Students from upper-income families represent 60% to 70% of attendees at elite privates.

Elite private universities confer undergraduate and graduate degrees and focus on research.

Elite public colleges

Elite public colleges, such as the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of Virginia, are near the top of the U.S. News & World Report’s rankings. They also are often the flagship university in their state, such as the University of Michigan.

These colleges have highly selective admissions processes as well and often accept about 10% to 20% of applicants.

The largest portion of revenue at public universities, roughly 40%, comes from government sources that include federal, state and local government grants, contracts and appropriations, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

Students from upper-income families constitute 50% to 55% of attendees at elite public colleges.

Like elite private colleges, elite public colleges confer undergraduate and graduate degrees and focus on research.

Community colleges

There are 1,024 community colleges in the U.S., serving 39% of undergraduate students.

These public, two-year colleges grant associate degrees and occasionally bachelor’s degrees. They also offer certificates, workforce training and noncredit courses to prepare students for college-level courses.

Community colleges have a strong teaching focus and a mission to serve their communities. They tend to guarantee admission to anyone who wants to enroll and offer lower tuition and fees.

Community colleges are also critical entry points for students from lower-income households and those who identify as racial or ethnic minorities or who are the first in their family to attend college.

Like other public institutions, community colleges depend heavily on state funding, as well as local property taxes.

Regional universities

Students with backpacks walk on campus during warm weather.
Roughly 70% of undergraduate students who attend public, four-year institutions enroll at regional public universities.
Newsday RM via Getty Images

Of all undergraduates who attend public, four-year institutions, roughly 70% enroll in regional institutions.

They include colleges in state-run systems such as the State University of New York and California State University.

There is wide variation in acceptance rates among regional public universities, but they tend to be moderately selective, accepting between half and 70% of applicants.

Regional public universities offer a wide range of academic programs mostly at the bachelor’s and master’s levels. They also depend heavily on state funding.

Small private colleges

Small, less selective private colleges often have acceptance rates of 60% or higher and enroll 3,000 or fewer students.

Their budgets depend primarily on tuition and fees.

Some of these types of colleges have suffered from enrollment declines since the early 2000s, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Many of these institutions lacked the large endowments that allowed elite privates to weather the financial challenges brought on by the pandemic.

A number of small private colleges, such as Eastern Nazarene College in Massachusetts, have closed or merged with other universities due to financial difficulties.

These small private colleges often offer academic programs at the bachelor’s and master’s levels.

Private for-profit

About 5% of students attend private for-profit colleges.

These colleges offer courses in convenient formats that may be attractive to older adult students, including those with full-time jobs.

For-profit college students disproportionately identify as older, Black and female. Students who attend these colleges are also more likely to be single parents.

In recent years, the federal government has cracked down on false promises some for-profit institutions made about their graduates’ job and earnings prospects and other outcomes.

The enforcement led to the closure of some colleges, such as ITT Technical Institute and Corinthian Colleges.

Minority-serving institutions

Students dressed in graduation regalia stand in rows.
Minority-serving institutions, including historically Black colleges and universities, have a mission to serve certain populations.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

Minority-serving institutions have a mission to serve certain student populations.

Minority-serving institutions include historically Black colleges and universities, or HBCUs, such as Morehouse College; Hispanic-serving institutions, or HSIs, such as Florida International University; Asian American, Native American and Pacific Islander-serving institutions, or AANAPISIs, such as North Seattle College; and tribal colleges and universities, or TCUs, such as Blackfeet Community College, which serve Native American students.

The federal government determines which colleges fit the criteria.

These are primarily two- and four-year colleges, but some grant graduate degrees.

The Conversation

Amy Li does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Trump’s battle with elite universities overlooks where most students actually go to college – https://theconversation.com/trumps-battle-with-elite-universities-overlooks-where-most-students-actually-go-to-college-254680

Beyond the backlash: What evidence shows about the economic impact of DEI

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Rodney Coates, Professor of Critical Race and Ethnic Studies, Miami University

DEI has a long history. Nora Carol Photography via Getty Images

Few issues in the U.S. today are as controversial as diversity, equity and inclusion – commonly referred to as DEI.

Although the term didn’t come into common usage until the 21st century, DEI is best understood as the latest stage in a long American project. Its egalitarian principles are seen in America’s founding documents, and its roots lie in landmark 20th-century efforts such as the 1964 Civil Rights Act and affirmative action policies, as well as movements for racial justice, gender equity, disability rights, veterans and immigrants.

These movements sought to expand who gets to participate in economic, educational and civic life. DEI programs, in many ways, are their legacy.

Critics argue that DEI is antidemocratic, that it fosters ideological conformity and that it leads to discriminatory initiatives, which they say disadvantage white people and undermine meritocracy. Those defending DEI argue just the opposite: that it encourages critical thinking and promotes democracy − and that attacks on DEI amount to a retreat from long-standing civil rights law.

Yet missing from much of the debate is a crucial question: What are the tangible costs and benefits of DEI? Who benefits, who doesn’t, and what are the broader effects on society and the economy?

As a sociologist, I believe any productive conversation about DEI should be rooted in evidence, not ideology. So let’s look at the research.

Who gains from DEI?

In the corporate world, DEI initiatives are intended to promote diversity, and research consistently shows that diversity is good for business. Companies with more diverse teams tend to perform better across several key metrics, including revenue, profitability and worker satisfaction.

Businesses with diverse workforces also have an edge in innovation, recruitment and competitiveness, research shows. The general trend holds for many types of diversity, including age, race and ethnicity, and gender.

A focus on diversity can also offer profit opportunities for businesses seeking new markets. Two-thirds of American consumers consider diversity when making their shopping choices, a 2021 survey found. So-called “inclusive consumers” tend to be female, younger and more ethnically and racially diverse. Ignoring their values can be costly: When Target backed away from its DEI efforts, the resulting backlash contributed to a sales decline.

But DEI goes beyond corporate policy. At its core, it’s about expanding access to opportunities for groups historically excluded from full participation in American life. From this broader perspective, many 20th-century reforms can be seen as part of the DEI arc.

Consider higher education. Many elite U.S. universities refused to admit women until well into the 1960s and 1970s. Columbia, the last Ivy League university to go co-ed, started admitting women in 1982. Since the advent of affirmative action, women haven’t just closed the gender gap in higher education – they outpace men in college completion across all racial groups. DEI policies have particularly benefited women, especially white women, by expanding workforce access.

Many Ivy League universities didn’t admit women until surprisingly recently.

Similarly, the push to desegregate American universities was followed by an explosion in the number of Black college students – a number that has increased by 125% since the 1970s, twice the national rate. With college gates open to more people than ever, overall enrollment at U.S. colleges has quadrupled since 1965. While there are many reasons for this, expanding opportunity no doubt plays a role. And a better-educated population has had significant implications for productivity and economic growth.

The 1965 Immigration Act also exemplifies DEI’s impact. It abolished racial and national quotas, enabling the immigration of more diverse populations, including from Asia, Africa, southern and eastern Europe and Latin America. Many of these immigrants were highly educated, and their presence has boosted U.S. productivity and innovation.

Ultimately, the U.S. economy is more profitable and productive as a result of immigrants.

What does DEI cost?

While DEI generates returns for many businesses and institutions, it does come with costs. In 2020, corporate America spent an estimated US$7.5 billion on DEI programs. And in 2023, the federal government spent more than $100 million on DEI, including $38.7 million by the Department of Health and Human Services and another $86.5 million by the Department of Defense.

The government will no doubt be spending less on DEI in 2025. One of President Donald Trump’s first acts in his second term was to sign an executive order banning DEI practices in federal agencies – one of several anti-DEI executive orders currently facing legal challenges. More than 30 states have also introduced or enacted bills to limit or entirely restrict DEI in recent years. Central to many of these policies is the belief that diversity lowers standards, replacing meritocracy with mediocrity.

But a large body of research disputes this claim. For example, a 2023 McKinsey & Company report found that companies with higher levels of gender and ethnic diversity will likely financially outperform those with the least diversity by at least 39%. Similarly, concerns that DEI in science and technology education leads to lowering standards aren’t backed up by scholarship. Instead, scholars are increasingly pointing out that disparities in performance are linked to built-in biases in courses themselves.

That said, legal concerns about DEI are rising. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and Department of Justice have recently warned employers that some DEI programs may violate Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Anecdotal evidence suggests that reverse discrimination claims, particularly from white men, are increasing, and legal experts expect the Supreme Court to lower the burden of proof needed by complainants for such cases.

The issue remains legally unsettled. But while the cases work their way through the courts, women and people of color will continue to shoulder much of the unpaid volunteer work that powers corporate DEI initiatives. This pattern raises important equity concerns within DEI itself.

What lies ahead for DEI?

People’s fears of DEI are partly rooted in demographic anxiety. Since the U.S. Census Bureau projected in 2008 that non-Hispanic white people would become a minority in the U.S by the year 2042, nationwide news coverage has amplified white fears of displacement.

Research indicates many white men experience this change as a crisis of identity and masculinity, particularly amid economic shifts such as the decline of blue-collar work. This perception aligns with research showing that white Americans are more likely to believe DEI policies disadvantage white men than white women.

At the same time, in spite of DEI initiatives, women and people of color are most likely to be underemployed and living in poverty regardless of how much education they attain. The gender wage gap remains stark: In 2023, women working full time earned a median weekly salary of $1,005 compared with $1,202 for men − just 83.6% of what men earned. Over a 40-year career, that adds up to hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost earnings. For Black and Latina women, the disparities are even worse, with one source estimating lifetime losses at $976,800 and $1.2 million, respectively.

Racism, too, carries an economic toll. A 2020 analysis from Citi found that systemic racism has cost the U.S. economy $16 trillion since 2000. The same analysis found that addressing these disparities could have boosted Black wages by $2.7 trillion, added up to $113 billion in lifetime earnings through higher college enrollment, and generated $13 trillion in business revenue, creating 6.1 million jobs annually.

In a moment of backlash and uncertainty, I believe DEI remains a vital if imperfect tool in the American experiment of inclusion. Rather than abandon it, the challenge now, from my perspective, is how to refine it: grounding efforts not in slogans or fear, but in fairness and evidence.

The Conversation

Rodney Coates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Beyond the backlash: What evidence shows about the economic impact of DEI – https://theconversation.com/beyond-the-backlash-what-evidence-shows-about-the-economic-impact-of-dei-252143

Extreme weather’s true damage cost is a mystery – that’s a problem for understanding storm risk

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By John Nielsen-Gammon, Regents Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University

Hail can be destructive, yet the cost of the damage often isn’t publicly tracked. NOAA/NSSL

On Jan. 5, 2025, at about 2:35 in the afternoon, the first severe hailstorm of the season dropped quarter-size hail in Chatham, Mississippi. According to the federal storm events database, there were no injuries, but it caused $10,000 in property damage.

How do we know the storm caused $10,000 in damage? We don’t.

That estimate is probably a best guess from someone whose primary job is weather forecasting. Yet these guesses, and thousands like them, form the foundation for publicly available tallies of the costs of severe weather.

If the damage estimates from hailstorms are consistently lower in one county than the next, potential property buyers might think it’s because there’s less risk of hailstorms. Instead, it might just be because different people are making the estimates.

Hail can damage vehicles as well as roofs, agriculture and other property.
Hail damage in Dallas in June 2012.
Rondo Estrello/Flickr, CC BY-SA

We are atmospheric scientists at Texas A&M University who lead the Office of the Texas State Climatologist. Through our involvement in state-level planning for weather-related disasters, we have seen county-scale patterns of storm damage over the past 20 years that just didn’t make sense. So, we decided to dig deeper.

We looked at storm event reports for a mix of seven urban and rural counties in southeast Texas, with populations ranging from 50,000 to 5 million. We included all reported types of extreme weather. We also talked with people from the two National Weather Service offices that cover the area.

Storm damage investigations vary widely

Typically, two specific types of extreme weather receive special attention.

After a tornado, the National Weather Service conducts an on-site damage survey, examining its track and destruction. That survey forms the basis for the official estimate of a tornado’s strength on the enhanced Fujita scale. Weather Service staff are able to make decent damage cost estimates from knowledge of home values in the area.

They also investigate flash flood damage in detail, and loss information is available from the National Flood Insurance Program, the main source of flood insurance for U.S. homes.

Volunteers help clean up debris from storm damage in the Sunshine Hills neighborhood in London, Ky., Monday, May 19, 2025
Tornadoes in May 2025 destroyed homes in communities in several states, including London, Ky.
AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley

Most other losses from extreme weather are privately insured, if they’re insured at all.

Insured loss information is collected by reinsurance companies – the companies that insure the insurance companies – and gets tabulated for major events. Insurance companies use their own detailed information to try to make better decisions on rates than their competitors do, so event-based loss data by county from insurance companies isn’t readily available.

Losing billion-dollar disaster data

There’s one big window into how disaster damage has changed over the years in the U.S.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, compiled information for major disasters, including insured losses by state. Bulk data won’t tell communities or counties about their specific risk, but it enabled NOAA to calculate overall damage estimates, which it released as its billion-dollar disasters list.

From that program, we know that the number and cost of billion-dollar disasters in the United States has increased dramatically in recent years. News articles and even scientific papers often point to climate change as the primary culprit, but a much larger driver has been the increasing number and value of buildings and other types of infrastructure, particularly along hurricane-prone coasts.

Critics in the past year called for more transparency and vetting of the procedures used to estimate billion-dollar disasters. But that’s not going to happen, because NOAA in May 2025 stopped making billion-dollar disaster estimates and retired its user interface.

Previous estimates can still be retrieved from NOAA’s online data archive, but by shutting down that program, the window into current and future disaster losses and insurance claims is now closed.

Emergency managers at the county level also make local damage estimates, but the resources they have available vary widely. They may estimate damages only when the total might be large enough to trigger a disaster declaration that makes relief funds available from the federal government.

Patching together very rough estimates

Without insurance data or county estimates, the local offices of the National Weather Service are on their own to estimate losses.

There is no standard operating procedure that every office must follow. One office might choose to simply not provide damage estimates for any hailstorms because the staff doesn’t see how it could come up with accurate values. Others may make estimates, but with varying methods.

The result is a patchwork of damage estimates. Accurate values are more likely for rare events that cause extensive damage. Loss estimates from more frequent events that don’t reach a high damage threshold are generally far less reliable.

Two maps of the counties that are home to Houston and Galveston, along with five counties to their East, show major differences in storm damage reporting.
The number of severe hail reports in southeast Texas listed in the National Centers for Environmental Information’s storm events database is strongly correlated with population. The county with the most reports and greatest detail in those reports is home to Houston. Hailstorms in the three easternmost counties are rarely associated with damage estimates.
John Nielsen-Gammon and B.J. Baule

Do you want to look at local damage trends? Forget about it. For most extreme weather events, estimation methods vary over time and are not documented.

Do you want to direct funding to help communities improve resilience to natural disasters where the need is greatest? Forget about it. The places experiencing the largest per capita damages depend not just on actual damages but on the different practices of local National Weather Service offices.

Are you moving to a location that might be vulnerable to extreme weather? Companies are starting to provide localized risk estimates through real estate websites, but the algorithms tend to be proprietary, and there’s no independent validation.

4 steps to improve disaster data

We believe a few fixes could make NOAA’s storm events database and the corresponding values in the larger SHELDUS database, managed by Arizona State University, more reliable. Both databases include county-level disasters and loss estimates for some of those disasters.

First, the National Weather Service could develop standard procedures for local offices for estimating disaster damages.

Second, additional state support could encourage local emergency managers to make concrete damage estimates from individual events and share them with the National Weather Service. The local emergency manager generally knows the extent of damage much better than a forecaster sitting in an office a few counties away.

Third, state or federal governments and insurance companies can agree to make public the aggregate loss information at the county level or other scale that doesn’t jeopardize the privacy of their policyholders. If all companies provide this data, there is no competitive disadvantage for doing so.

Fourth, NOAA could create a small “tiger team” of damage specialists to make well-informed, consistent damage estimates of larger events and train local offices on how to handle the smaller stuff.

With these processes in place, the U.S. wouldn’t need a billion-dollar disasters program anymore. We’d have reliable information on all the disasters.

The Conversation

John Nielsen-Gammon receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the State of Texas.

William Baule receives funding from NOAA, the State of Texas, & the Austin Community Foundation.

ref. Extreme weather’s true damage cost is a mystery – that’s a problem for understanding storm risk – https://theconversation.com/extreme-weathers-true-damage-cost-is-a-mystery-thats-a-problem-for-understanding-storm-risk-257105

AmeriCorps is on the chopping block – despite research showing that the national service agency is making a difference in local communities

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Pamela Paxton, Professor of Sociology, The University of Texas at Austin

Many AmeriCorps crews, like this one seen at work in Maine in 2011, restore and renovate public parks. John Patriquin/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

Hundreds of thousands of U.S. nonprofits provide vital services, such as running food banks and youth programs, supporting public health initiatives and helping unemployed people find new jobs. Although this work helps sustain local communities, obtaining the money and staff they require is a constant struggle for many of these groups.

That’s where AmeriCorps often comes in. The independent federal agency for national service and volunteerism has facilitated the work of approximately 200,000 people a year, placing them through partnerships with thousands of nonprofits that provide tutoring, disaster relief and many other important services.

But Americorps’ fate is now uncertain. In April 2025, the Trump administration canceled more than 1,000 grants, suddenly ending the stipends that were supporting more than 32,000 AmeriCorps volunteers. On June 5, a judge ordered that these grants be restored in Washington D.C. and 24 states in response to a lawsuit they had filed. The judge also ordered that all volunteers who had been deployed in those places be reinstated “if they are willing and able to return.”

The Trump administration has also put most of AmeriCorps administrative staff on leave and indicated that it wants to eliminate the independent agency, along with its US$1.2 billion annual budget. AmeriCorps doesn’t appear in a detailed 2026 budget request the administration released on May 30.

I’m a sociology and public affairs professor who has studied nonprofits and volunteering for decades. My research suggests that dismantling AmeriCorps would harm the organizations that rely on national service members and take a toll on the communities that benefit from their work.

AmeriCorps explains what the independent national service agency does.

What AmeriCorps does

AmeriCorps traces its roots to the mid-1960s, when Volunteers in Service to America, known as VISTA, was founded as a domestic counterpart to the Peace Corps. Several earlier service programs were consolidated when Congress passed the National and Community Service Trust Act in 1993. AmeriCorps was officially launched in 1994 – and VISTA became one of its programs.

Since then, AmeriCorps members have built housing and infrastructure, delivered disaster relief, tutored in low-income schools, provided health care and helped older adults age with dignity in both urban and rural communities across the nation.

AmeriCorps includes a variety of programs, each designed to address specific public needs. Some AmeriCorps volunteers provide direct services, such as tutoring, food delivery and in disaster response efforts. Others focus on building the long-term capacity of local nonprofits through volunteer recruitment, fundraising strategy and community outreach.

AmeriCorps volunteers, whom the agency calls “members,” are placed in thousands of nonprofits, schools and local agencies. Many of them are recent college graduates or early-career professionals. Some programs specifically ask people over 55 to serve. Those “senior” volunteers support children through the Foster Grandparents program, volunteer for organizations or assist other older people through the Senior Companions program.

Many AmeriCorps volunteers are paid a modest allowance for this work that runs about $500 per week. AmeriCorps senior volunteers receive smaller sums in hourly stipends to offset the costs of volunteering.

Fox40 News in Sacramento, Calif., covers the Trump administration’s reduction of AmeriCorps’ ranks in April 2025.

Helping nonprofits gain traction

AmeriCorps has long funded research that assesses its impact.

One such study found that every dollar invested in national service generates $11.80 in benefits for society, such as higher earnings, better mental and physical health, and economic growth. Additionally, every federal dollar spent on national service produces $17.30 in savings across other government programs through reductions in public assistance, health and criminal justice spending.

As part of AmeriCorps’ research grants program, I have received funding to study civic engagement and AmeriCorps programming.

In one of those studies, which I conducted with two former colleagues at the University of Texas at Austin in 2021, we found that VISTA volunteers were able to help nonprofits gain volunteers. After two years, an organization with that support had 71% more volunteers than those that didn’t participate in the VISTA program.

We also found that the longer a nonprofit had a staffer supported by the VISTA program, the more its overall pool of volunteers increased.

Nonprofits with VISTA volunteers also had three times as many donations two years later, compared with nonprofits without VISTA service members. But the total value of donations the nonprofit obtained didn’t always rise. That is, we found that VISTA builds people power, but not necessarily fundraising revenue.

Findings like these indicate that AmeriCorps hasn’t just helped the people it serves or the people who volunteer through the program. It also strengthens nonprofits and increases engagement within local communities, reinforcing the civic fabric that knits communities together.

As members of Congress and the White House decide whether to preserve AmeriCorps, I hope they consider the evidence that demonstrates this worthwhile program’s positive impact.

The Conversation

Pamela Paxton has received funding from the Office of Research and Evaluation at AmeriCorps.

ref. AmeriCorps is on the chopping block – despite research showing that the national service agency is making a difference in local communities – https://theconversation.com/americorps-is-on-the-chopping-block-despite-research-showing-that-the-national-service-agency-is-making-a-difference-in-local-communities-257430