La dette des ménages chinois s’envole

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Damien Cubizol, Maître de conférences en économie, Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)

Depuis les années 2000, la hausse de l’endettement des ménages chinois a été spectaculaire. Selon les données du CEIC, le montant total de cette dette a été multiplié par près de vingt depuis 2007. Il atteint environ 11 500 milliards de dollars au premier trimestre 2025.

Cette augmentation rapide représente un changement notable dans le comportement financier des ménages chinois, plutôt imprégnés d’une culture de l’épargne pendant la transition économique de leur pays, selon les économistes Guonan Ma et Wang Yi. Une tendance inédite dans le paysage international, entraînée par des facteurs spécifiques à une économie toujours en pleine mutation.

Malgré les chiffres d’une dette explosive, différents indicateurs révèlent un risque limité à une partie des ménages seulement, ceux aux revenus les plus faibles.

Entre pays développés et émergents

La dette des ménages en pourcentage du PIB est passée de 18,8 % en 2007 à 60 % en Chine au quatrième trimestre 2024 selon la Banque des règlements internationaux.

Si ce chiffre reste relativement modeste par rapport aux économies développées – l’Australie, le Canada, la Corée du Sud, les Pays-Bas et la Suisse affichent des ratios dette des ménages/PIB compris entre 90 et 130 % –, il est bien supérieur à celui d’autres économies émergentes. La dette des ménages en Indonésie et au Mexique est inférieure à 20 % tandis que le Brésil, l’Inde et l’Afrique du Sud affichent des ratios compris entre 30 et 45 %. Cette différence frappante met en évidence la situation unique de la Chine, entre économies développées et émergentes.

Un autre indicateur crucial de la soutenabilité de l’endettement des ménages est le ratio de la dette par rapport au revenu net disponible. Il permet ainsi de comparer le montant de l’emprunt avec la capacité de financement. Le ratio de la Chine se situait entre 55 % et 80 % en 2013, entre 80 % et 110 % en 2017, et à 115 % fin 2023.

Ces dernières données s’alignent sur les États-Unis et la médiane des pays de l’OCDE, où le ratio a fluctué autour de 110 % au cours de la même période. Bien que le chiffre de la Chine reste inférieur à celui de pays comme l’Australie, le Canada, la Corée du Sud, la Norvège ou la Suisse – pour lesquels la dette des ménages approche ou dépasse 200 % du revenu disponible –, la forte augmentation traduit une hausse de l’endettement plus importante que l’évolution des revenus des ménages.

Hukou (passeport intérieur), immobilier et finance numérique

La montée en flèche de l’endettement des ménages résulte d’une combinaison de facteurs économiques, institutionnels et sociaux. Deux facteurs sont primordiaux :

Ces deux facteurs reflètent la promotion par le gouvernement de l’accession à la propriété et des marchés financiers au cours des dernières années. Des recherches sur les économies émergentes – y compris la Chine – ont identifié d’autres facteurs tels que la démographie, le revenu et le patrimoine des ménages, l’éducation ou même le sentiment de bien-être.


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Un facteur propre au cas chinois est le système hukou. Ce cadre d’enregistrement résidentiel des ménages a fait l’objet de plusieurs réformes. Dans de nombreuses grandes villes, l’accès à un hukou permanent dépend de conditions telles que la propriété, les contributions fiscales et la participation à des programmes de promotion des talents. Ces exigences peuvent influencer le comportement d’emprunt des ménages, car l’accession à la propriété a souvent été une condition préalable à l’obtention du statut de résident permanent.

Ménages à faibles revenus vulnérables

Le loan-to-value ratio (ratio prêt-valeur), qui mesure la taille d’un prêt immobilier par rapport à la valeur du bien, révèle que la dette des ménages chinois semble relativement sûre au niveau macroéconomique. La réalité est plus complexe. Des études montrent que les ménages à faible revenu sont particulièrement vulnérables. Ils peuvent éprouver de grandes difficultés à honorer leurs dettes – trop importantes par rapport à leur capacité de financement –, notamment en cas de baisse des revenus ou du prix de leur bien immobilier.




À lire aussi :
Que ferait la Chine si les États-Unis ne remboursaient pas leur dette ?


À cela s’ajoute la complexité d’interprétation du ratio dette/revenu de la Chine mentionné précédemment dans l’article (115 % fin 2023), les méthodologies et définitions du revenu disponible variant en fonction des sources. C’est pourquoi l’évaluation précise de la charge réelle pesant sur les ménages vulnérables reste difficile. Selon l’agence de notation financière FitchRatings, le pourcentage de prêts à la consommation non performants – en retard de paiement ou présentant peu de chances d’être remboursés – en Chine a augmenté ces dernières années. À 3 %, il reste faible en comparaison internationale.

Tous ces éléments traduisent un risque contenu, mais également une certaine incertitude avec la hausse des différents indices et les difficultés d’interprétation.

Différencier le court et long terme

L’augmentation rapide de l’endettement des ménages soulève des questions quant à son impact sur la consommation et, par extension, sur la croissance économique. Les effets différenciés à court et à long terme sont analysés dans les recherches récentes.

À court terme, l’augmentation des emprunts peut stimuler la consommation des ménages. Pourquoi ? Parce que les individus utilisent le crédit pour financer des achats qu’ils ne pourraient pas se permettre autrement. Les prêts à la consommation représentent désormais une part croissante de l’endettement total des ménages chinois.

À moyen et long terme, des niveaux d’endettement plus élevés peuvent entraîner une réduction de la consommation, les ménages consacrant une part plus importante de leurs revenus au service de leur dette. Cette évolution pourrait freiner la demande intérieure et remettre en cause le rééquilibrage de la Chine vers une croissance tirée par la consommation, sachant que celle-ci reste structurellement faible en Chine.

Alors que la Chine évolue dans ce paysage financier complexe, les décideurs politiques doivent trouver un équilibre délicat entre la stimulation de la consommation et le maintien de l’endettement des ménages à des niveaux soutenables, notamment pour les faibles revenus. L’évolution de l’économie chinoise, façonnée par les marchés immobiliers, la finance numérique et les changements socio-économiques, continuera d’influencer l’endettement des ménages dans les années à venir.

The Conversation

Damien Cubizol est également chercheur au Centre d’études et de recherches sur le développement International.

Ce travail a été soutenu par l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche du gouvernement français à travers le programme ‘France 2030’ ANR-16-IDEX-0001.

ref. La dette des ménages chinois s’envole – https://theconversation.com/la-dette-des-menages-chinois-senvole-258655

Projet d’attentat « incel » déjoué : décrypter le danger masculiniste

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Tristan Boursier, Docteur en Science politique, Sciences Po

Un adolescent a récemment été arrêté en France pour un projet d’attentat inspiré par le masculinisme, relançant l’alerte sur cette mouvance. Né en réaction aux avancées féministes, le masculinisme prétend défendre des hommes présentés comme opprimés et converge de plus en plus vers les idéologies d’extrême droite. Les réseaux sociaux offrent une nouvelle et inquiétante visibilité à cette mouvance, notamment auprès des jeunes hommes.


Le 27 juin 2025, un adolescent de 18 ans a été arrêté dans la région de Saint-Etienne (Loire). Il est soupçonné d’avoir projeté d’attaquer des femmes au couteau.

Le parquet national antiterroriste (PNAT) a, pour la première fois en France, mis un jeune homme en examen pour un projet d’attentat lié aux « incels » (contraction en anglais de « involuntary celibate » – célibataire involontaire – désignant une sous-culture en ligne caractérisée par une haine des féministes, accusées d’entraver leur accès sexuel aux femmes), qui s’inscrit plus largement dans la mouvance masculiniste.




À lire aussi :
‘ Adolescence ‘ est une critique poignante de la masculinité toxique chez les jeunes


Ce n’est un cas ni isolé, ni propre à la France. En 1989, Marc Lépine assassinait 14 femmes à l’École polytechnique de Montréal en dénonçant le féminisme. En 2014, aux États-Unis, Elliot Rodger tuait six personnes, expliquant dans un manifeste sa rancœur envers les femmes qui ne le désiraient pas. Depuis, plusieurs attentats perpétrés par des hommes ont été revendiqués au nom d’une même idéologie : le masculinisme.

Pour les masculinistes, les féministes et les femmes auraient inversé les rapports de domination, les hommes seraient désormais opprimés et il faudrait des mesures pour les protéger. Un récit fondé sur ce que le politologue Francis Dupuis-Déri appelle « le mythe de la crise de la masculinité ».

Le masculinisme : une résistance aux avancées féministes

Ces passages à l’acte sont souvent interprétés comme des dérives psychiatriques. Cette lecture psychologisante obère toutefois la dimension collective et politique du masculinisme qui doit être considéré comme un contre-mouvement social, c’est-à-dire une mobilisation qui se forme en opposition (en réaction) à un mouvement progressiste, ici le féminisme, pour défendre un ordre social hiérarchisé précis.

Le masculinisme s’organise activement – hors ligne et en ligne – contre l’égalité des genres, pour défendre les privilèges masculins mis en cause par les luttes féministes. La sociologue Mélissa Blais le décrit comme un contre-mouvement structuré, enraciné dans l’histoire des résistances aux avancées féministes.




À lire aussi :
Masculinisme : une longue histoire de résistance aux avancées féministes


Bien qu’ancré dans une histoire longue, le masculinisme connaît aujourd’hui une reconfiguration numérique inédite, portée par la circulation transnationale de contenus sur les réseaux sociaux. Ce n’est pas tant son idéologie qui est nouvelle, que ses formes, ses publics et ses canaux de diffusion.

Les réseaux sociaux ne créent pas cette idéologie, mais ils la rendent plus visible, plus accessible, et surtout plus attractive pour un public jeune en quête d’identité, de repères genrés et de récits explicatifs du monde. Ce nouvel écosystème permet ainsi au masculinisme d’échapper à la marginalité dans laquelle il était autrefois cantonné, pour s’imposer comme une forme contemporaine d’engagement réactionnaire.

Une idéologie qui prolifère dans la « manosphère »

Aujourd’hui, cette idéologie prolifère dans la « manosphère », un ensemble de sous-cultures numériques que l’on retrouve, par exemple, sur des forums comme Reddit (une plate-forme communautaire américaine qui regroupe des milliers de sous-forums thématiques, souvent modérés de façon laxiste), des chaînes YouTube, des serveurs Discord ou des groupes Telegram.

Dans ces espaces circulent des discours haineux, des guides de drague problématiques (valorisant la manipulation et mettant au second plan le consentement) et des appels à ce qui est décrit comme une revanche sexuelle à prendre sur les femmes, à travers, notamment, le viol ou le revenge porn.

La « néo-manosphère », selon certains chercheurs, s’est intensifiée au cours de la dernière décennie en migrant vers des plates-formes peu modérées, en s’adaptant aux codes de l’influence virale et en croisant ses récits avec ceux de l’extrême droite, du suprémacisme blanc ou du complotisme.

Ces contenus visent un public jeune et masculin, en quête de repères virils dans un monde présenté comme féminisé. Ils mobilisent des audiences massives, bien au-delà des marges. En France, des influenceurs masculinistes cumulent des abonnés et semblent connus des plus jeunes (moins de 15 ans) comme l’indiquent des éléments réunis par la commission d’enquête parlementaire sur les effets psychologiques de TikTok chez les jeunes.

Le masculinisme converge de plus en plus vers les idéologies d’extrême droite. Cette alliance se construit autour d’un récit commun : celui d’un ordre social menacé par l’égalité, la diversité et la modernité.

Comme le montrent plusieurs études récentes, les discours antiféministes servent souvent de porte d’entrée vers des idées d’extrême droite (racisme, suprémacisme blanc, autoritarisme, opposition à la démocratie). Ainsi, selon ces recherches, près de 30 % des internautes fréquentant des espaces antiféministes migrent ensuite vers des contenus d’extrême droite. D’autres études non seulement confirment ces résultats mais précisent que les personnes exposées à du sexisme en ligne sont 10 % plus susceptibles d’approuver des idées radicales violentes, même si elles ne votent pas à l’extrême droite.

Un contre-mouvement exploité politiquement à l’extrême droite

Le masculinisme est aujourd’hui exploité par des figures d’extrême droite dans les espaces numériques. Thaïs d’Escufon, ex militante de Génération identitaire– groupuscule dissous en mars 2021 par le ministère de l’Intérieur, a par exemple réorienté ses productions numériques vers le masculinisme et vend des formations à destination des jeunes hommes, mêlant conseils de développement personnel, coaching en virilité, revalorisation de rôles genrés traditionnels, critique du féminisme et surtout conseils de drague.

Julien Rochedy, ancien président du Front national de la jeunesse, a également misé sur le masculinisme tout en produisant des discours suprémacistes blancs sur sa chaîne YouTube.




À lire aussi :
Papacito ou comment les youtubeurs d’extrême droite gagnent leurs abonnés


Les discours masculinistes sont aussi investis par certains politiques. Aux États-Unis, Donald Trump a délibérément soutenu des figures de la manosphère comme Andrew Tate ou Jordan Peterson, contribuant à mobiliser une partie de l’électorat masculin.

Ce type de rhétorique se retrouve également ailleurs : au Brésil, avec l’ancien président Jair Bolsonaro, qui a multiplié les déclarations sexistes et homophobes ; en Argentine, avec Javier Milei. Dans ces cas, le masculinisme devient un vecteur de mobilisation politique autour d’une identité masculine perçue comme menacée. Il permet de réactiver des affects de ressentiment en les articulant à une promesse de restauration de l’ordre patriarcal.

Cette convergence est d’autant plus inquiétante qu’elle s’accompagne d’une hausse de la menace terroriste liée à l’ultra droite : en France, en 2021, 29 personnes ont été arrêtées pour des faits de terrorisme liés à l’ultra droite contre 5 en 2020 et 7 en 2019 – le djihadisme demeurant la principale menace. Fin 2023, le ministre de l’Intérieur Gérald Darmanin évoquait 13 attentats d’ultra droite déjoués depuis 2017. Aux États-Unis, l’extrême droite est devenu la première cause de mortalité liée aux idéologies extrémistes depuis 2014 : sur les 442 personnes tuées par des extrémistes entre 2014 et 2023, 336 (soit 76 %) l’ont été par des extrémistes de droite.

Ces passages à l’acte s’inscrivent dans des réseaux, récits et références partagés. Comme le rappelle l’Anti-Defamation League, les nouvelles formes d’extrémisme se fondent sur une posture victimaire : des hommes qui se pensent persécutés, trahis par la modernité, autorisés à répondre par la violence.

Identifier le continuum masculiniste

Reconnaître le caractère politique du masculinisme plutôt que le réduire à des problématiques psychologiques individuelles est indispensable pour y répondre. Cela implique une formation plus poussée des magistrats, journalistes et enseignants à ces phénomènes. Cela suppose aussi une meilleure régulation des espaces numériques où ces idées circulent.

Il s’agit d’une part de reconnaître ce qui ne relève pas de l’opinion mais de l’incitation à la haine et d’autre part, de ne pas se focaliser uniquement sur les actes ou prises de position les plus spectaculaires (comme les influenceurs qui jouent volontairement sur l’outrance pour viraliser leurs contenus) et les plus meurtriers.

Si le masculinisme réussit à se répandre c’est aussi parce qu’il s’appuie sur des idées sexistes banalisées et qui sont déjà bien ancrées dans nos sociétés tels que la supposée émotivité et vénalité des femmes ou la meilleure rationalité des hommes.

Ces préjugés sont souvent inculqués dès l’enfance à travers une éducation genrée (deux tiers des femmes déclarent avoir été éduquées différemment des garçons). Cette socialisation différenciée naturalise les inégalités, que les discours masculinistes réactivent ensuite pour justifier la hiérarchie entre les sexes.

The Conversation

Tristan Boursier a reçu des financements du Fonds de recherche du Québec société et culture (FRQSC).

ref. Projet d’attentat « incel » déjoué : décrypter le danger masculiniste – https://theconversation.com/projet-dattentat-incel-dejoue-decrypter-le-danger-masculiniste-260711

Quelle place pour la musique francophone à l’ère du streaming ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Marianne Lumeau, Maître de conférences en économie numérique, de la culture et des médias, Université de Rennes

Les algorithmes de recommandations des plates-formes de streaming traitent-ils différemment les musiques francophones ? Existe-t-il un biais algorithmique en défaveur des contenus francophones, français ou québécois ? Au contraire, les contenus produits aux États-Unis ou en langue anglaise sont-ils favorisés ? Dans quelle mesure les utilisateurs adoptent-ils des stratégies de découverte différentes pour les titres musicaux francophones ?


A côté de la radio, le streaming musical est aujourd’hui un mode d’accès à la musique dominant. Par conséquent, la majorité des revenus de la musique enregistrée est aujourd’hui issue de son exploitation sur les plates-formes de streaming, particulièrement grâce aux abonnements. Ces plates-formes ont introduit un nouveau modèle d’affaires : alors que dans le monde physique seul l’acte d’achat compte, chaque écoute d’un titre est désormais comptabilisée. Par ailleurs, elles proposent aux consommateurs des catalogues de plus de cent millions de titres, ainsi que des mécanismes pour pouvoir les guider face à ces ensembles gigantesques et faciliter la découverte : playlists éditorialisées, recommandations algorithmiques, etc.

Dans ce contexte, les gouvernements et acteurs de la filière musicale de certaines petites économies (dont la France et le Québec) ont fait part de leurs craintes quant à la découvrabilité des contenus locaux : ces derniers seraient moins facilement découvrables que les contenus d’une grande économie, États-Unis d’Amérique en tête. Cela conduit à s’interroger sur les façons dont les contenus francophones sont traités par les auditrices et des auditeurs et par les plates-formes de streaming, notamment via leurs systèmes de guidage des écoutes.

Pour répondre à ces questions, nous avons réalisé, avec une équipe de chercheurs, une étude qualitative, basée sur la conduite de 37 entretiens en France et au Québec auprès d’abonnés de plates-formes de streaming musical, ainsi qu’une étude quantitative consistant à auditer expérimentalement un algorithme de recommandations de Spotify.


Du lundi au vendredi + le dimanche, recevez gratuitement les analyses et décryptages de nos experts pour un autre regard sur l’actualité. Abonnez-vous dès aujourd’hui !


Usage non dominant des systèmes de recommandation

L’enquête qualitative menée par les sociologues Jean-Samuel Beuscart et Romuald Jamet montre qu’il existe des spécificités dans l’écoute de la musique francophone chez les Français et les Québécois (on la sollicite moins lors de tâches demandant de la concentration), mais pas en termes de découverte. La découverte musicale dépend de l’appétence des usagers pour cette pratique, et non de l’origine géographique ou de la langue des titres.

Pour découvrir ou redécouvrir des titres, ils peuvent avoir recours aux systèmes de guidage des plates-formes, mais pas de manière exclusive ou dominante : ces pratiques de découverte s’encastrent dans un panel de pratiques habituelles et socialement ancrées reposant principalement sur la découverte par les pairs et la radio.

Des recommandations en fonction des goûts des usagers

Les résultats de l’expérimentation indiquent que les recommandations produites par l’algorithme de Spotify tendent à respecter les préférences des individus : plus ils consomment de titres locaux et plus l’algorithme leur en recommande.

Par ailleurs, il n’existe pas de biais algorithmique en défaveur des titres produits en France ou au Québec, en comparaison des titres américains. En revanche, les titres francophones sont moins recommandés par l’algorithme que les titres en langue anglaise. L’étude révèle toutefois que ces biais en défaveur des titres francophones sont de faible ampleur.




À lire aussi :
Adolescence : Comment se forment les goûts musicaux


La réécoute favorise les biais algorithmiques

Cependant, lorsque les usagers choisissent de suivre systématiquement les recommandations faites par l’algorithme, l’ampleur des biais linguistiques en défaveur des titres francophones augmente largement au cours du temps et de forts biais géographiques apparaissent à l’encontre des titres produits en France ou au Québec. Un utilisateur fictif français ou québécois se fiant entièrement aux algorithmes finirait par voir ses préférences largement déformées : la part de chansons française ou québécoise décroît très fortement au profit de chansons états-uniennes en anglais. Ce phénomène ne se produit pas avec la même force pour un utilisateur fictif états-unien.

Cette hypothèse d’utilisateurs centrés uniquement sur l’écoute de titres recommandés, faisant fi de leurs préférences musicales initiales, ne correspond pas aux comportements observés actuellement : sur les plates-formes de streaming musical, la part des écoutes issues de recommandations algorithmiques est encore faible (30 % en moyenne). Il s’agit surtout de situation où l’exposition musicale est subie et/ou inattentive, comme lorsque l’on travaille, ou encore dans des lieux publics (café, etc.).

Comment le streaming a mangé la musique ?

Des résultats à surveiller

Notons que les résultats obtenus sont situés dans le temps. Les comportements d’écoute et de découverte, incluant davantage d’écoutes guidées par exemple, ainsi que des recommandations produites par l’algorithme peuvent évoluer. Ces dernières dépendent des usages qui viennent le nourrir, mais également du paramétrage par la plate-forme. La recherche de rentabilité semble passer pour certaines plates-formes par une réduction des coûts via des contrats proposant une meilleure exposition de certains contenus en échange de rémunérations plus faibles, la création de faux artistes utilisés pour compléter les playlists à côté de titres à succès, ou encore le recours à des titres créés par l’IA. Dans ces deux derniers cas, un souci d’économie d’échelle pourrait amener les plates-formes multinationales et/ou leurs fournisseurs de contenus à privilégier des titres en langue anglaise.

Notre étude débouche sur quatre recommandations.

D’abord, il est nécessaire de mesurer régulièrement si les contenus locaux sont traités différemment par les auditeurs et les plates-formes dans les processus de découverte de nouveautés musicales.

Ensuite, il convient de mettre en place des procédures pour de telles mesures : analyse de données macroéconomiques des parts de marché des titres locaux et réalisation de tests d’existence des potentiels biais. Ces tests pourraient être réalisés par les plates-formes de streaming (a minima sur les outils de guidage les plus utilisés) qui, en parallèle, devraient mettre à disposition des chercheurs et des institutions indépendantes (par exemple l’ARCOM en France ou le CRTC au Canada), via une procédure simplifiée, des données pour vérifier l’existence de biais.

Transparence et personnalisation des systèmes de guidage

La troisième recommandation porte sur la transparence des algorithmes par les plates-formes. Les consommateurs doivent pouvoir comprendre simplement comment fonctionnent les algorithmes qu’ils utilisent (ou souhaitent utiliser). C’est particulièrement vrai dans un contexte où le type de contenus recommandés par les plates-formes de streaming n’est pas contraint et dépend uniquement de leur volonté et de leurs intérêts économiques (pouvant être mêlés à ceux de certains acteurs dominants via notamment des liens contractuels et capitalistiques). Dans un souci d’autonomie de choix, les individus devraient également pouvoir personnaliser certains paramètres (comme l’origine géographique ou la langue).

Soutien à la diversité des mécanismes de découverte

La quatrième recommandation porte sur le fait d’encourager la diversité. Au sein des plates-formes de streaming, les systèmes de découverte éditorialisées et algorithmiques doivent varier selon différents critères pour limiter les potentiels biais sur des filières locales. Un soutien à la découverte via d’autres canaux que les recommandations des plates-formes de streaming doit également être valorisé. Dans un monde où la radio reste un canal de découverte central, elle doit continuer à être soutenue et poussée à la promotion de la diversité linguistique et la protection des contenus culturels locaux. La comparaison France/Québec indique également la nécessité de favoriser la diversité des expressions musicales au Québec (moins riche qu’en France), notamment en soutenant l’amont de la filière.


Cet article est publié dans le cadre de la série « Regards croisés : culture, recherche et société », publiée avec le soutien de la Délégation générale à la transmission, aux territoires et à la démocratie culturelle du ministère de la culture.

The Conversation

Marianne Lumeau a reçu des financements du ministère de la culture français et du ministère de la culture et de la communication québécois dans le cadre d’un appel à projet sur la découvrabilité.

François Moreau a participé à un projet financé par le ministère de la culture français et du ministère de la culture et de la communication québécois dans le cadre d’un appel à projet sur la découvrabilité.

Jordana Viotto a participé a un projet sur la découvrabilité des contenus numériques financé par le ministère de la culture français et le ministère de la culture et de la communication québécois.

Samuel Coavoux a reçu des financements de l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche (projet RECORDS, ANR-2019-CE38-0013).

ref. Quelle place pour la musique francophone à l’ère du streaming ? – https://theconversation.com/quelle-place-pour-la-musique-francophone-a-lere-du-streaming-259400

I’m a statistics professor who became embroiled in the world of online chess drama

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, Professor of Statistics, University of Toronto

As a mild-mannered statistics professor, it’s not often that I get
contacted directly by the CEO of a multi-million-dollar company, much less regarding allegations of cheating and malfeasance among world champions.

But that’s precisely what happened last summer. Erik Allebest, CEO of the world’s largest online chess site, Chess.com, asked me to investigate former world chess champion Vladimir Kramnik’s concerns about the long winning streaks of top player Hikaru Nakamura.

Kramnik argued that these streaks had very low probability and were therefore very suspicious and “interesting.” He didn’t quite accuse Hikaru of cheating, but the implication was clear. Feelings were running high, with Kramnik’s supporters posting angry comments (often in Russian) about cheating as many Chess.com players and Hikaru partisans dismissed the accusations.

Who was right? Who was wrong? Who could say?

Allebest asked me to conduct an independent, unbiased statistical analysis to see just how unlikely those chess winning streaks actually were.

Now, I am no stranger to public statistical disputes, having published a
best-selling book about everyday probabilities and conducted the statistical analysis for the high-profile lottery retailer scandal. But could statistical analysis really help to clarify this simmering controversy on the world’s biggest chess stage?

Statistician Jeffrey Rosenthal responds to questions about statistics for WIRED in a video that has received 2.4 million views since February 2022.

Calculating probabilities

To sort this out, I first had to calculate the probability of each player winning or tying each game. Different players can have very different abilities, and more advanced players have a greater chance of defeating less experienced opponents. But just how great?

Chess.com assigns a chess rating to each player after each game, and these ratings were shared with me. My analysis suggested that a certain logistic — or s-shaped — curve function provided an accurate estimate of each game’s probabilities.

Furthermore, deviations from this probability in successive game results were approximately independent, so the influence of one game on the next could be safely ignored. This gave me a clear probability of each player winning each game.

I could then analyze those winning streaks that had provoked so much ire. It turned out that Hikaru, unlike most other top players, had played lots of games against much weaker players. This gave him a very high probability of winning each game. But even so, should he have such long winning streaks, sometimes more than 100 games in a row?

Testing randomness

To check this, I conducted some Monte Carlo simulations, which repeat a test with random variations.

I wrote computer programs to randomly assign wins and losses and draws to each of Hikaru’s games, according to the probabilities from my model. I had the computer measure the most surprising winning streaks each time. This allowed me to measure how Hikaru’s actual streaks stacked up against what we should expect.

I found that in many of the Monte Carlo simulations, the
simulated results included streaks just as unlikely as the actual ones.
This demonstrated that Hikaru’s chess results were just about what might
be expected. He had such a high probability of winning each game, and had played so many games on Chess.com, that such long winning streaks were likely to emerge according to the rules of probability alone.

Responses to findings

I wrote up a brief report of my findings, and sent it to Chess.com.
It ran a news item on its site, which elicited many comments, mostly supportive.

Hikaru then posted his own video commentary, also supporting my analysis. But meanwhile, Kramnik posted a 29-minute video criticizing my research.

Kramnik did include some substantive points, so I wrote an addendum to my report to address his concerns and show that they would not effect the conclusion. I also converted my report into a formal paper, which I submitted to a research journal.

I then got busy with my teaching duties and put the chess controversies
out of my mind until I received a response in December. It consisted of three referee reports and editor comments, with detailed comments totalling six single-spaced pages.

I also then discovered that Kramnik had posted a second 59-minute video critiquing my addendum and raising additional points, too.

I addressed Kramnik’s and the referees’ additional points while revising my article for publication. My paper was finally published in the Harvard Data Science Review.

I was glad to have my findings published in a prestigious statistics journal, thus giving them a formal stamp of approval. And perhaps, at long last, to settle this particular champion-level chess controversy.

The Conversation

Jeffrey S. Rosenthal receives research funding from NSERC of Canada, but received no compensation from Chess.com or anyone else for this work.

ref. I’m a statistics professor who became embroiled in the world of online chess drama – https://theconversation.com/im-a-statistics-professor-who-became-embroiled-in-the-world-of-online-chess-drama-256294

How Philadelphia’s sanitation strike differed from past labor disputes in the city

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Francis Ryan, Associate Professor of Labor Studies and Employment Relations, Rutgers University

Trash piled up in Philadelphia during the 8-day strike that ended July 9, 2025. AP Photo/Matt Slocum

The Philadelphia municipal workers strike ended after eight days in the early hours of July 9, 2025.

The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees District Council 33 union’s 9,000 blue-collar workers, including sanitation workers, 911 dispatchers, city mechanics and water department staff, were called back to work immediately. The deal involves a three-year contract with 3% annual raises and an additional step in the union pay scale for veteran workers.

The Conversation U.S. asked Francis Ryan, a professor of labor studies at Rutgers University and author of “AFSCME’s Philadelphia Story: Municipal Workers and Urban Power in Philadelphia in the Twentieth Century,” about the history of sanitation strikes in Philly and what made this one unique.

Has anything surprised you about this strike?

This strike marked the first time in the history of labor relations between the city of Philadelphia and AFSCME District Council 33 union where social media played a significant role in how the struggle unfolded.

The union got their side of the story out on Instagram and other social media platforms, and citizens took up or expressed sympathy with their cause.

Piles of garbage on the street beside a green dumpster spray-painted with 'Don't Scab Parker's Mess'
Some city residents referred to the garbage buildup sites as ‘Parker piles.’
AP Photo/Tassanee Vejpongsa

How successful are trash strikes in Philly or other US cities?

As I describe in my book, Philadelphia has a long history of sanitation strikes that goes back to March 1937. At that time, a brief work stoppage brought about discussions between the city administration and an early version of the current union.

When over 200 city workers were laid off in September 1938, city workers called a week-long sanitation strike. Street battles raged in West Philadelphia when strikers blocked police-escorted trash wagons that were aiming to collect trash with workers hired to replace the strikers.

Philadelphia residents, many of whom were union members who worked in textile, steel, food and other industries, rallied behind the strikers. The strikers’ demands were met, and a new union, AFSCME, was formally recognized by the city.

This strike was a major event because it showed how damaging a garbage strike could be. The fact that strikers were willing to fight in the streets to stop trash services showed that such events had the potential for violence, not to mention the health concerns from having tons of trash on the streets.

There was another two-week trash strike in Philadelphia in 1944, but there wouldn’t be another for more than 20 years.

However, a growing number of sanitation strikes popped up around the country in the 1960s, the most famous being the 1968 Memphis sanitation strike.

Black-and-white photo of a line of Black men walking past a row of white soldiers in uniform with bayonets fixed
Black sanitation workers peacefully march wearing placards reading ‘I Am A Man’ during the 1968 sanitation strike in Memphis, Tenn.
Bettmann via Getty Images

In Memphis, Tennessee, a majority African American sanitation workforce demanded higher wages, basic safety procedures and recognition of their union. Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. rallied to support the Memphis workers and their families as part of his Poor Peoples’ Campaign, which sought to organize working people from across the nation into a new coalition to demand full economic and political rights.

On April 4, 1968, King was assassinated. His death put pressure on Memphis officials to settle the strike, and on April 16 the strikers secured their demands.

Following the Memphis strike, AFSCME began organizing public workers around the country, and through the coming years into the 1970s, there were sanitation strikes and slowdowns across the nation including in New York, Atlanta, Cleveland and Washington. Often, these workers, who were predominantly African American, gained the support of significant sections of the communities they served and secured modest wage boosts.

By the 1980s, such labor actions were becoming fewer. In 1986, Philadelphia witnessed a three-week sanitation strike that ended with the union gaining some of its wage demands, but losing on key areas related to health care benefits.

Black-and-white photo of men standing alongside a huge pile of trash and two trash trucks
Workers begin removing mounds of trash after returning to work after an 18-day strike in Philadelphia in July 1986.
Bettmann via Getty Images

How do wages and benefits for DC33 workers compare to other US cities?

District Council 33 President Greg Boulware has said that the union’s members make an average salary of US$46,000 per year. According to MIT’s Living Wage Calculator, that is $2,000 less than what a single adult with no kids needs to reasonably support themselves living in Philadelphia.

Prior to this deal, sanitation workers who collect curbside trash earned a salary of $42,500 to $46,200, or $18-$20 an hour. NBC Philadelphia reported that those wages are the lowest of any of the major cities they looked at. Hourly wages in the other cities they looked at ranged from $21 an hour in Dallas to $25-$30 an hour in Chicago.

Unlike other eras, the fact that social media makes public these personal narratives and perspectives – like from former sanitation worker Terrill Haigler, aka “Ya Fav Trashman” – is shaping the way many citizens respond to these disruptions. I saw a level of support for the strikers that I believe is unprecedented going back as far as 1938.

What do you think was behind this support?

The COVID-19 pandemic made people more aware of the role of essential workers in society. If the men and women who do these jobs can’t afford their basic needs, something isn’t right. This may explain why so many people saw things from the perspective of striking workers.

At the same time, money is being cut from important services at the federal, state and local levels. The proposed gutting of Philadelphia’s mass transit system by state lawmakers is a case in point. Social media allows people to make these broader connections and start conversations.

This article was originally published on July 8, 2025, and has been updated to include details of the strike’s resolution.

The Conversation

Francis Ryan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How Philadelphia’s sanitation strike differed from past labor disputes in the city – https://theconversation.com/how-philadelphias-sanitation-strike-differed-from-past-labor-disputes-in-the-city-260676

Obesity care: why “eat less, move more” advice is failing

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lucie Nield, Senior Lecturer in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Sheffield

New Africa/Shutterstock

For years, people living with obesity have been given the same basic advice: eat less, move more. But while this mantra may sound simple, it’s not only ineffective for many, it can be deeply misleading and damaging.

Obesity is not just about willpower. It’s a complex, chronic, relapsing condition and affects around 26.5% of adults in England, and 22.1% of children aged ten–11 in England.

A new report estimates the rapidly growing number of people that are overweight or obese costs the UK £126 billion a year. This includes £71.4 billion in reduced quality of life and early mortality, £12.6 billion in NHS treatment costs, £12.1 billion from unemployment and £10.5 billion in informal care.

Food campaigners and health experts have called for urgent government action, including expanding the sugar tax to more products, restricting junk food advertising and mandating reformulation of ultra processed foods. As Henry Dimbleby, author of a government-commissioned independent report called the National Food Strategy, warned: “We’ve created a food system that’s poisoning our population and bankrupting the state.”


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Without significant policy change, these costs are projected to rise to £150 billion a year by 2035. Despite this, much of the UK’s approach continues to frame obesity as a lifestyle issue that can be tackled by emphasising personal responsibility. But this framing ignores the bigger picture.

We now understand that obesity is multifactorial. Genetics, childhood experiences, cultural norms, economic disadvantage, psychological health, mental illness and even the kind of job you have all play a role. These aren’t things you can simply change with a Fitbit and salad.

This broader perspective isn’t new. In 2007, the UK government’s Foresight report mapped out the complex web of factors behind rising obesity rates, describing how modern environments actively promote weight gain.

This “obesogenic environment” refers to the world we live in. Its one where high-calorie, low-nutrient foods are cheap and everywhere, and where physical activity has been engineered out of everyday life, from car-centric cities to screen-dominated leisure time.

Outdated obesity advice isn’t working.

These environments don’t affect everyone equally. People in more deprived areas are significantly more exposed to conditions that drive obesity, such as food deserts (areas with limited access to affordable, nutritious food), poor public transport and limited green space. In this context, weight gain becomes a normal biological response to an abnormal environment.

Why “eat less, move more” falls short

Despite growing awareness of these systemic issues, most UK obesity strategies still centre on individual behaviour change, often through weight management programmes that encourage people to cut calories and exercise more. While behaviour change has a place, focusing on it exclusively creates a dangerous narrative: that people who struggle with their weight are simply lazy or lack willpower.

This narrative fuels weight stigma, which can be incredibly harmful. Yet data shows a clear link between higher rates of obesity and deprivation, especially among children.

It’s clear many people still don’t understand the role of structural and socioeconomic factors in shaping obesity risk. And this misunderstanding leads to judgement, shame and stigma, especially for children and families who are already vulnerable.

What should good obesity care look like?

Instead of outdated advice and blame, we need a holistic, stigma-free and science-informed approach to obesity care, one that reflects current Nice guidelines and the Obesity Health Alliance’s recommendations. There are several things that need to be done.

First, we should recognise obesity as a chronic disease. Obesity is not a failure of willpower. It’s a relapsing, long-term medical condition. Like diabetes or depression, it requires structured, ongoing support, not short-term fixes or crash diets.

Second, we need to tackle weight stigma head-on. Weight-based discrimination is widespread in schools, workplaces and even healthcare settings. We need training for professionals to reduce bias, promote inclusive care and adopt person-centred, non-stigmatising language. Discriminatory practices must be challenged and eliminated.

Third, deliver personalised, multidimensional support. Treatment plans should be tailored to each person’s life, including their cultural background, psychological history and social context. This includes shared decision-making, regular follow-up and integrated mental health support.

And fourth, focus on changing the environment, not just people. We must shift the focus to the systems and structures that make healthy choices so hard. That means investing in affordable, nutritious food; improving access to physical activity; and tackling inequality at its roots.

Time for a systemic shift

Obesity isn’t just about what people eat or how often they exercise. It’s shaped by biology, experience and the environment we build around people. Framing it as a personal failure not only ignores decades of evidence – it actively harms the very people who need support.

If we want to reduce stigma, improve health outcomes – and avoid a £150bn crisis – then the “eat less, move more” era must come to an end. What we need instead is a bold, compassionate, evidence-based systems approach – one that sees the whole person and the world they live in.

The Conversation

Lucie Nield receives funding from NIHR.

Catherine Homer receives funding from NIHR. She is affiliated with Royal Society of Public Health.

ref. Obesity care: why “eat less, move more” advice is failing – https://theconversation.com/obesity-care-why-eat-less-move-more-advice-is-failing-254628

Action is the antidote to ecological grief and climate anxiety – an ecotherapist explains

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Louise Taylor, Early Career Researcher and Ecotherapist, Queen’s University Belfast

Brussels, Belgium. 21st February 2019. High school and university students stage a protest against the climate policies of the Belgian government. Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com

There’s a popular quote by the 13th-century poet and spiritual teacher Rumi: “The cure for the pain is in the pain.” This line often echoes through my mind when I’m working with clients, especially those experiencing ecological grief and climate anxiety.

As an ecotherapist – a therapist guided by nature and nature-based therapeutic approaches – and environmental researcher, I work with people who are navigating the emotional weight of ecological breakdown.

Ecotherapy helps people reconnect with the natural world as a way to support mental and emotional wellbeing. It might involve walking in green spaces, mindfulness practices in nature, working with natural materials, or nature-based rituals.

Whether it’s planting a garden, sitting under a tree, or engaging in conservation efforts, ecotherapy helps people feel more grounded, more connected and more resilient both emotionally and spiritually.


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In my practice, I’ve noticed that younger people are more likely to experience climate anxiety, while older generations tend to experience ecological grief. The difference is subtle but important. Anxiety often relates to what lies ahead and a sense of powerlessness. Grief is about what has already been lost.

This emotional divide makes sense when we consider what has happened to the natural world over recent decades. Older adults have witnessed the loss of species, habitats and biodiversity in real time. Many have rich memories and relationships with landscapes that no longer exist as they once did. Meanwhile, younger generations face the terrifying uncertainty of a rapidly changing climate and an increasingly unstable future.

Both grief and anxiety are valid, but they are not the same.

I have explored these experiences in depth while researching nature connection, mental health and how the climate and ecological crisis is reshaping this relationship.

At the outset, I assumed that greater connection with nature would always lead to improved mental wellbeing. But that wasn’t the full picture.

What I found instead was that deepening our connection with the natural world can indeed foster healing, but it can also sharpen our awareness of the damage being done. This heightened sensitivity can trigger emotional pain, despair and even a decline in mental wellbeing.

Swiss psychiatrist and psychotherapist Carl Jung once said, “There is no coming to consciousness without pain.” That’s exactly what climate-anxious and ecologically grieving people are expressing: the deep psychological toll of recognising the scale of the crisis we’re facing. For some, it affects their ability to function, to enjoy their lives and to maintain relationships.

How to stay well

The question I kept returning to in my work was this: how do we stay well in a time of collapse? My research pointed to one consistent answer: action.

Engaging in pro-environmental actions emerged as the most effective way people coped with emotional strain. These weren’t merely acts of activism — they became spiritual practices, grounded in care, connection and meaning. Through these actions, people began to reclaim a sense of power and purpose in the face of overwhelming ecological loss.

For many, this was also a path back to what eco-philosophers call the ecological self: the part of us that extends beyond the individual and identifies with the living world.

This self isn’t driven by ego or personal gain, but by the impulse to build relationships, nurture communities and support the flourishing of all life. It represents an expanded way of being; one that understands health and healing as collective, not just personal.

Importantly, these actions don’t have to be large-scale. They might involve growing your own herbs or vegetables, for instance, or joining a local conservation effort, forming a community group to protect waterways or green spaces, or participating in climate strikes and land defence work. What matters is that the action is relational: rooted in reciprocity and care.

The conclusion of my research was clear: in the face of ecological distress, mental wellbeing is sustained not by thoughts, but by meaningful action.

Healing through action

In Northern Ireland, where I live and work, I’ve seen a growing grassroots environmental movement. Communities are stepping up to protect landscapes under threat, from campaigns to defend the Sperrin Mountains from gold mining, to local resistance against the pollution that’s devastating Lough Neagh, the largest freshwater lake in Ireland and the UK.

This is unpaid, often invisible labour, but it’s powerful. It gives people a way to process their emotions, to feel less helpless and to turn grief into agency.

Many environmentalists talk about “saving the planet”. But the truth is, the Earth will go on. What’s under threat is us: our ways of life, our communities, our ability to thrive. The dread we feel is rooted in the enormity of this realisation.

To stay well while caring deeply about the Earth means learning to live with this pain, and still choosing to act. It requires us to show up, to be present and to tend to both the human and non-human world with care and reciprocity. As we do, we become more empowered and less overwhelmed.

If you are struggling with climate anxiety or ecological grief, know this: the goal isn’t to suppress your feelings. The goal is to acknowledge them, and then use them as fuel for meaningful action.

Don’t underestimate small acts. The way forward isn’t to wait for hope: it’s to create it through connection, courage and commitment.

In a time of ecological uncertainty, wellness doesn’t come from thinking differently. It comes from doing differently.

The Conversation

Louise Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Action is the antidote to ecological grief and climate anxiety – an ecotherapist explains – https://theconversation.com/action-is-the-antidote-to-ecological-grief-and-climate-anxiety-an-ecotherapist-explains-260428

How tea, chocolate and apples could help lower your blood pressure

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Christian Heiss, Professor of Cardiovascular Medicine, Head of Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Surrey

Pixel-Shot/Shutterstock

We’re constantly told to “eat healthy” – but what does that actually mean? Even doctors sometimes struggle to offer clear, practical advice on which specific foods support health, why they work and what real benefits people can expect.

A growing body of research is starting to offer some answers. Along with colleagues, I have researched whether a group of plant compounds called flavan-3-ols could help lower blood pressure and improve blood vessel function. The results suggest these everyday compounds may have real potential for protecting heart health.

Flavan-3-ols – sometimes called flavanols or catechins – are natural plant compounds that belong to the flavonoid family. They’re part of what gives plants their colour and helps protect them from sunlight and pests.

For us, they show up in some of our most familiar foods: cocoa, green and black tea, grapes, apples and even some berries. That slightly tart or bitter note you taste in dark chocolate or strong tea? That’s flavan-3-ols at work.

Scientists have long been interested in their health effects. In 2022, the Cosmos trial (Cocoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study), which followed over 21,000 people, found that cocoa flavanols, but not multivitamin supplements, reduced deaths from cardiovascular disease by 27%. Our study set out to dig even deeper, focusing specifically on their effects on blood pressure and endothelial function (how well blood vessels dilate and respond to blood flow).


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We analysed data from 145 randomised controlled trials involving more than 5,200 participants. These studies tested a range of flavan-3-ol-rich foods and supplements, including cocoa, tea, grapes, apples and isolated compounds like epicatechin, and measured their effects on two key cardiovascular markers: blood pressure and flow-mediated dilation (FMD): a measure of how well the inner lining of blood vessels functions.

The studies ranged from short-term (a single dose) to longer-term interventions lasting weeks or months. On average, participants consumed about 586 mg of flavan-3-ols daily; roughly the amount found in two to three cups of tea, one to two servings of dark chocolate, two tablespoons of cocoa powder, or a couple of apples.

Regular consumption of flavan-3-ols led to an average drop in office blood pressure of 2.8 mmHg systolic (the top number) and 2.0 mmHg diastolic (the bottom number).

But for people who started with elevated blood pressure or diagnosed hypertension, the benefits were even greater with reductions of up to 6–7 mmHg systolic and 4 mmHg diastolic. That’s comparable to the effects of some prescription blood pressure medications and could significantly lower the risk of heart attacks and strokes.

We also found that flavan-3-ols improved endothelial function, with an average 1.7% increase in FMD after sustained intake. This benefit appeared even in participants whose blood pressure was already normal, suggesting these compounds may help protect blood vessels through multiple pathways.

Side effects were uncommon and typically mild, usually limited to minor digestive issues, suggesting that adding flavan-3-ol-rich foods to your diet is generally safe.

Supporting cardiovascular health

While the benefits were most pronounced in those with high blood pressure, even people with normal readings saw improvements in vascular function. This suggests flavan-3-ols may help prevent cardiovascular problems before they begin.

High blood pressure is one of the major drivers of heart disease worldwide, even at levels that don’t qualify as full-blown hypertension (140/90 mmHg or higher). Recent guidelines from the European Society of Cardiology now recognise that even “elevated” blood pressure (120–139 systolic and 70–89 diastolic) carries increased risk.

Lifestyle changes, particularly diet and exercise, are recommended by doctors as first-line strategies. But patients and even healthcare providers often lack clear, specific guidance on which foods truly make a difference. Our findings help fill this gap by showing that boosting flavan-3-ol intake through everyday foods may offer a simple, evidence-based way to support cardiovascular health.

What about supplements?

Some studies tested supplements or isolated flavan-3-ol compounds, but these generally showed smaller effects than whole foods like tea or cocoa. This may be because other beneficial compounds in whole foods work together, enhancing absorption and effectiveness.

At present, it appears both safer and more effective to focus on getting flavan-3-ols from foods rather than high-dose supplements, especially for people taking medications, since interactions are not fully understood.

The studies we reviewed suggest that 500–600 mg of flavan-3-ols daily may be enough to see benefits. You could reach this by combining two to three cups of green or black tea, one to two servings (about 56g) of dark chocolate or two to three tablespoons of cocoa powder, two to three apples, plus other flavan-3-ol-rich fruits like grapes, pears and berries

Apples, pears, grapes, black berries on a wooden table with garden background.
Eating apples, pears, grapes and berries could help support your heart health.
Oksana Klymenko/Shutterstock

Small daily swaps, then, like trading a sugary snack for an apple and a piece of dark chocolate or adding an extra cup of tea, could gradually improve your heart health over time. Because flavan-3-ol content can vary between foods, monitoring your blood pressure at home may help you see if it’s making a difference for you.

More research is needed, particularly in people with diabetes, where the results were less consistent. We also need to better understand how flavan-3-ols interact with medications and whether even greater benefits can be achieved when combined with other healthy habits.

But the evidence is now strong enough to recommend flavan-3-ol-rich foods as part of a heart-healthy diet. As clinicians seek practical, affordable lifestyle strategies for patients, these findings bring us closer to the idea of using food as medicine.

Of course, flavan-3-ols aren’t a magic fix. They won’t replace medication for everyone. But combined with other healthy habits, they may offer a meaningful – and delicious – boost to cardiovascular health. And unlike many health fads, this isn’t about exotic superfoods or expensive powders. It’s about foods many of us already enjoy, used a little more intentionally.

The Conversation

Christian Heiss has received funding from Lipton Teas & Infusions, Ageless Science, iThera, the Medical Research Council, the EPSRC, European Partnership on Metrology, co-financed from European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme and UK Research and Innovation. He is member of the board of the European Society of Vascular Medicine, president of the Vascular, Lipid and Metabolic Medicine Council of the Royal Society of Medicine, and chairperson-elect of the ESC WG Aorta and Peripheral Vascular Diseases.

ref. How tea, chocolate and apples could help lower your blood pressure – https://theconversation.com/how-tea-chocolate-and-apples-could-help-lower-your-blood-pressure-256631

Could England and Wales introduce jury-free trials? Here’s how they work in other countries

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natalie Hodgson, Assistant Professor in Law, University of Nottingham

The right to trial by jury is a fundamental part of the criminal justice system in England and Wales. But under new proposals to address a record backlog of almost 77,000 Crown Court cases, some cases could now be heard by judge alone.

Sir Brian Leveson has delivered part one of his independent review of the criminal courts, making 45 recommendations to address delays in the criminal justice process. One of his recommendations is that serious offences could be tried by a judge alone without a jury. Our evidence to the review explored how judge-alone trials have been used in other countries.

Currently, a person can only be tried without a jury at Crown Court if there is a risk of jury tampering. Under Leveson’s proposal, judge-alone trials will be expanded to cases where a defendant requests to be tried without a jury, serious and complex fraud offences and where the case is likely to be lengthy or particularly complex.

To understand how this might work, we can to look to other countries where judge-alone trials are used. Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the US all permit judge-alone trials in circumstances similar to what Leveson is recommending. A defendant can choose to be tried by a judge instead of a jury in certain circumstances.

Defendants tend to express a preference for trial by judge alone if they are concerned that prejudicial media coverage or the nature of the offences might bias jurors against them. Leveson recommends that judges should decide whether a defendant’s request for a judge-alone trial should be granted, but stops short of identifying the factors that a judge should consider.

Leveson leaves open the question of whether judge-alone trials should be available for all offences, or whether certain offences should be exempt. Some countries limit which offences can be heard without a jury. For example, in the Australian Capital Territory, a defendant cannot request a trial without a jury for murder or certain sexual offences.

In New South Wales, judges are advised against permitting a judge-alone trial when the offence involves consideration of “community standards”. This recognises that members of the community have an important role to play in deciding whether a defendant has acted “reasonably”, “negligently” or “dishonestly”. For example, if a person is charged with manslaughter the jury may need to consider whether the defendant’s actions were “unreasonable”, which is best determined by members of the community.

Are judge-alone trials unfair to defendants?

Lawyers often raise concerns about judge-alone trials being unfair to defendants. Based on what we know from other countries, there is no strong evidence that this is the case. However, that is not to say that concerns about unfairness are unwarranted.

If judges convict at higher rates than juries, that might suggest that judge-alone trials are unfair. However, the best available study, conducted in New South Wales, found that judges were actually slightly less likely than juries to find a defendant guilty.

Juries do not explain their verdicts. In all countries which use judge-alone trials, judges must give reasons for their decisions. Knowing why a defendant was found guilty might make trials even more fair, providing a basis for an appeal against conviction if an error was made.

One key issue with judge-alone trials is inadmissible evidence. Ordinarily, jurors are sent out of the courtroom while the judge and lawyers make decisions about what evidence the jury is allowed to hear. Evidence might be excluded because it is irrelevant, prejudicial or was collected in breach of the defendant’s rights. In these scenarios, the jury is never made aware of the evidence.

However, in a judge-alone trial, the judge sees all the evidence, even if they decide that some of it should not be used. There is a risk that judges might be subconsciously impacted by inadmissible evidence in reaching their verdict.

Judge-alone trials also raise issues about diversity of decision-makers. In England and Wales, only 11% of judges are from an ethnic minority background compared to 18% of the population. Ideally, juries contain people from a range of backgrounds. Some defendants might feel more confident that they will be tried fairly by a jury than a judge.

Ultimately, one way to safeguard against concerns about unfairness is to give defendants the ability to choose whether or not they would like to be tried by a judge alone. Leveson’s recommendations suggest that most judge-alone trials would occur at the request of the defendant. However, judge-alone trials could be ordered against the defendant’s wishes in cases involving fraud or that are long and complex.

Juries play an important role in the legal system in England and Wales. Through jury service, members of the community contribute to the administration of justice. The inclusion of a range of viewpoints and experiences in determining criminal verdicts enhances the legitimacy of the justice system.

It is important that we continue to have juries in criminal trials. However, that is not to say that judge-alone trials cannot or should not play a role. The current backlog means that victims and defendants are having to wait years for their day in court. We desperately need to address this, and allowing defendants to elect a judge-alone trial may help to reduce delays to justice.

While judge-alone trials are not inherently unfair, any rollout in England and Wales should be closely monitored and evaluated. It is important that we do not sacrifice fairness for efficiency as we work to address the issues affecting our justice system.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Could England and Wales introduce jury-free trials? Here’s how they work in other countries – https://theconversation.com/could-england-and-wales-introduce-jury-free-trials-heres-how-they-work-in-other-countries-259489

The dangers of romanticising Britain’s 1976 heatwave

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephanie Brown, Lecturer in Criminology, University of Hull

As I scrolled through social media on a hot afternoon in late June, a meme caught my attention. A black and white photo. A smiling young woman with water up to her knees. She appeared to be in a fountain, with many others dipping their legs in the water.

The caption read “On this day in 1976, the British heatwave started. It would last until the 27th August, during which time Britain would experience extreme temperatures and widespread droughts. And we all had a wonderful summer and survived.”

This immediately struck me: it was a boiling hot day. As I sat at my office desk keeping hydrated with a fan pointed directly at my face, I felt the rage burning inside me. How could people be so irresponsible? Heat can be dangerous. But the implication of the meme was clear: if people managed back then, surely today’s warnings about heatwaves, climate change, and public health are exaggerated. These rose-tinted memories obscure a darker truth.

I am a historical criminologist. This meme had the rare effect of deeply troubling both of my areas of expertise.

As a historian, this meme concerns me because it perpetuates the myth of the “good old days”. A selective, nostalgic vision of the past that smooths over complexity and hardship in favour of a comforting, idealised narrative. Flattening history into feelgood folklore, erasing the social inequalities and governmental failures.

It echoes a broader cultural tendency: from “Make America great again” to the “Blitz spirit”, representing Britain’s nostalgia for wartime resilience, a romanticised past is often used by politicians to legitimise political ideas in the present. But history is not a comfort blanket. It is a critical tool.

My work explores how institutions respond to crisis and how narratives of success or failure are constructed. In 1976, advice for dealing with the water shortage was to share a bath with the wife and drive a dirty car. Areas without domestic tap water had to use communal street pipes.

The government did not appoint a minister for drought until the end of August, despite mounting evidence from meteorologists and public health officials. Emergency measures were piecemeal and unevenly applied.


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The suggestion that “we all had a wonderful summer and survived” is misleading. It was reported that “200 people a day were apparently dying who would not have died if the weather had been normal”. During the peak of the heatwave, deaths increased by 28% in the southeast England and 33% in Greater London.

As a criminologist, I know that it is not only natural deaths that can increase during a hot weather. The number of violent deaths also increased in 1976 as well as in other heatwaves. Thermic law is the concept that violent crime is higher in hotter seasons. These patterns might be explained by temperature-aggression theory: that hot weather can cause an increase in aggressive behaviours.

For other criminologists, it is not the temperature itself that causes increased violence, but how people’s behaviour changes due to the heat. For example, people are taking time off work or school, socialising, and drinking. Unstructured time and spaces, combined with alcohol and a holiday feel all lead to increases in violence.

Misrepresenting risk

By sentimentalising the summer of 1976, we strip away its lessons. Worse, we risk repeating its mistakes. One Conservative MP described people concerned about the 2022 heatwave as “snowflakes” and “cowards”. Quite an odd response after the British public was asked to “protect the NHS” during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This protection apparently did not extend to looking after each other in a heatwave. In fact, heatwaves are largely an invisible risk. We are told not to fuss, but there is often little communication on how to keep safe.

A lack of policy and examples of political scepticism connect with a key theme in the comments under that meme: climate change denial. If we had a heatwave in 1976 then what we are experiencing now is nothing new, right? Wrong.

The heatwave in 1976 was bad: thousands died, fires raged, and water ran dry. But it was also an anomaly; a hot summer in a relatively cool decade. Heatwaves are now more frequent, more intense and longer lasting. Temperatures reached over 40°C in 2022, while the maximum in 1976 was 4°C-5°C cooler.

Still, each time a weather warning is issued, it is met with a wave of derision. There is the same online discourse as is expressed in this meme. This attitude is not just flippant, it is dangerous. It undermines vital public messaging, discourages precautionary action, and fuels complacency among those least at risk, while leaving the most vulnerable even more exposed.

History can offer crucial perspective. But only if we treat it honestly. That means moving beyond memeified memories of the past and reckoning with the complexity of what really happened. It means challenging the stories we tell ourselves. Many did live through the 1976 heatwave. But many also died: quietly, invisibly and avoidably. Their stories are not part of the nostalgia. They should be.


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The Conversation

Stephanie Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The dangers of romanticising Britain’s 1976 heatwave – https://theconversation.com/the-dangers-of-romanticising-britains-1976-heatwave-260046