Category: Analysis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in US politics and international security, University of Portsmouth

There are masked men, and some women, on the streets in American cities, sometimes travelling in unmarked cars, often carrying weapons and wearing military-style kit. They have the power to identify, arrest, detain non-citizens and deport undocumented immigrants. They also have the right to interrogate any individual who they believe is not a citizen over their right to remain in the US.

These are agents from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency, known as Ice. This is a federal law enforcement agency, which falls under the control of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and is playing a significant and contentious role in the implementation of Donald Trump’s tough immigration policy.

On the campaign trail Trump promised “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history”. And he is giving Ice more power to deliver his plans.

Since Trump took office in January, Ice funding has been significantly increased. Trump’s “big beautiful bill”, passed by Congress in July 2025, gave Ice US$75 billion (£55 billion) of funding for the next four years, up from around US$8 billion a year.

This funding boost will allow the agency to recruit more agents as well as adding thousands more beds plus extensions to buildings to increase the capacity of detention centres. There is also new funding for advanced surveillance tools including AI-assisted facial recognition and mobile data collection. There’s another US$30 billion going to frontline operations, covering removing immigrants and transport to detention centres.

The president has committed to deporting everyone who is in the US illegally, that is estimated by the Wall Street Journal to be about 4% of the current US population. For the past five months, the numbers of people being picked up by Ice agents has been ticking up fast.

Average daily arrests were up 268% to about 1,000 a day in June 2025, compared with the same month a year earlier. This was also a 42% rise on May 2025, according to data analysis from the Guardian and the Deportation Data Project. However, this is still considerably short of the 3,000 a day ordered by secretary of homeland security Kristi Noem and White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller.

Ice’s tactics have already attracted significant criticism. Right-leaning broadcaster Fox News has reported on how masked agents are not showing ID or naming their agency when picking up people in raids. Other reporting has highlighted allegations that American citizens are also sometimes being swept up in the raids.

The agency, currently led by acting director Todd M. Lyons, has three main divisions: the Enforcement and Removal Operations division, which identifies and deports undocumented immigrants as well as manages detention centres. The Homeland Security Investigations, which investigates criminal activities with an international or border nexus such as human trafficking, narcotics, and weapons smuggling. The Office of the Principal Legal Advisor provides legal advice to Ice and prosecutes immigration cases in court.

Lyons claimed that mask wearing was necessary because of Ice agents being “doxed” – when a person’s personal information such as names and home addresses are revealed online without their permission. Assaults on Ice agents have risen, he claimed. DHS data suggested that there were 79 assaults on Ice agents from January to June 2025, compared to ten in the same period in 2024.

Democratic House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries compared mask wearing by Ice agents to secret police forces in authoritarian regimes. “We’re not behind the Iron Curtain. This is not the 1930s.”

Read more:
ICE has broad power to detain and arrest noncitizens – but is still bound by constitutional limits

The Ice agency was established in 2003 by the George W. Bush administration, partly as a result of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and was part of a broader reorganisation of federal agencies under the then newly created DHS. It incorporated parts of the former Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) and some elements of the US Customs Service.

According to the agency’s website, Ice’s core mission is “to protect America through criminal investigations and enforcing immigration laws to preserve national security and public safety”.

What’s changed?

At the start of the administration in January, the White House gave Ice the authority to hasten the deportation of immigrants that had entered the country with government authorisation during the previous administration. This “expedited removal” authority allowed Ice to deport individuals without requiring an appearance before an immigration judge.

As arrests have grown in the past months, Lyons told CBS News that Ice would detain any undocumented immigrant, even if they did not have a criminal record.

And the Trump administration has also allowed Ice agents to make arrests at immigration courts, which had previously been off limits. This restriction was introduced by the Biden administration in 2021 to ensure witnesses, victims of crimes and defendants would still appear in court without fear of arrest for immigration violations, unless the target was a national security threat.

However, Lyons rescinded those restrictions in May, part of a broader shift towards aggressive enforcement.

Much of the time, Ice has targeted illegal immigrants. But the agency has also arrested and detained some individuals who were residents (green card holders) or tourists – and, in some cases, citizens.

In recent weeks, according to the Washington Post, Ice has been ordered to increase the number of immigrants shackled with GPS-enabled ankle monitors. This would significantly increase the number of immigrants that are under surveillance. Ankle monitors also restrict where people can travel.

Sparking protests

There have been numerous public protests about Ice raids, most notably in California. This peaked on June 6 after Ice had conducted numerous raids in Los Angeles, resulting in clashes between agents and protesters. This led to the White House sending around 2,000 National Guard troops and 700 Marines to Los Angeles, despite opposition from California governor Gavin Newsom.

Part of the friction between the Trump administation and the state is that Los Angeles and San Francisco have adopted local policies to limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities including Ice. California has sanctuary laws, such as SB 54, that prohibit local police and sheriffs from assisting Ice with civil immigration enforcement.

However, Trump shows every sign of pushing harder and faster to crack down on illegal immigrants, and Ice agents are clearly at the forefront of how he aims to do it.

Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Masked and armed agents are arresting people on US streets as aggressive enforcement ramps up – https://theconversation.com/masked-and-armed-agents-are-arresting-people-on-us-streets-as-aggressive-enforcement-ramps-up-261499

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ian Whittaker, Senior Lecturer in Physics, Nottingham Trent University

Is there a massive undiscovered planet on the outer reaches of the Solar System? The idea has been around since before the discovery of Pluto in the 1930s. Labelled as planet X, prominent astronomers had put it forward as an explanation for Uranus’s orbit, which drifts from the path of orbital motion that physics would expect it to follow. The gravitational pull of an undiscovered planet, several times larger than Earth, was seen as a possible reason for the discrepancy.

That mystery was ultimately explained by a recalculation of Neptune’s mass in the 1990s, but then a new theory of a potential planet nine was put forward in 2016 by astronomers Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown at Caltech (the California Institute of Technology).

Their theory relates to the Kuiper Belt, a giant belt of dwarf planets, asteroids and other matter that lies beyond Neptune (and includes Pluto). Many Kuiper Belt objects – also referred to as trans-Neptunian objects – have been discovered orbiting the Sun, but like Uranus they don’t do so in a continuous expected direction. Batygin and Brown argued that something with a large gravitational pull must be affecting their orbit, and proposed planet nine as a potential explanation.

This would be comparable to what happens with our own Moon. It orbits the Sun every 365.25 days, in line with what you would expect in view of their distance apart. However, the Earth’s gravitational pull is such that the Moon also orbits the planet every 27 days. From the point of view of an outside observer, the Moon moves in a spiralling motion as a result. Similarly, many objects in the Kuiper Belt show signs of their orbits being affected by more than just the Sun’s gravity.

While astronomers and space scientists were initially sceptical about the planet nine theory, there has been mounting evidence thanks to increasingly powerful observations that the orbits of trans-Neptunian objects are indeed erratic. As Brown said in 2024:

I think it is very unlikely that P9 does not exist. There are currently no other explanations for the effects that we see, nor for the myriad other P9-induced effects we see on the Solar System.

In 2018, for example, it was announced that there was a new candidate for a dwarf planet orbiting the Sun, known as 2017 OF201. This object measures around 700km across (Earth is roughly 18x bigger) and has a highly elliptical orbit. This lack of a roughly circular orbit around the Sun suggested either an impact early in its lifetime that put it on this path, or gravitational influence from planet nine.

Problems with the theory

On the other hand, if planet nine exists, why hasn’t anyone found it yet? Some astronomers question whether there’s enough orbital data from Kuiper objects to justify any conclusions about its existence, while alternative explanations get put forward for their motion, such as the effect of a ring of debris or the more fantastical idea of a small black hole.

The biggest issue, however, is that the outer Solar System just hasn’t been observed for long enough. For example, object 2017 OF201 has an orbital period of about 24,000 years. While an object’s orbital path around the Sun can be found in a short number of years, any gravitational effects probably need four to five orbits to notice any subtle changes.

New discoveries of objects in the Kuiper Belt have also presented challenges for the planet nine theory. The latest is known as 2023 KQ14, an object discovered by the Subaru telescope in Hawaii.

It is known as a “sednoid”, meaning it spends most of its time far away from the Sun, though within the vast area in which the Sun has a gravitational pull (this area lies some 5,000AU or astronomical units away, where 1AU is the distance from the Earth to the Sun). The object’s classification as a sednoid also means the gravitational influence of Neptune has little to no effect on it.

2023 KQ14’s closest approach to the Sun is around 71AU away, while its furthest point is about 433AU. By comparison, Neptune is about 30AU away from the Sun. This new object is another with a very elliptical orbit, but it is stabler than 2017 OF201, which suggests that no large planet, including a hypothetical planet nine, is significantly affecting its path. If planet nine exists, it would therefore perhaps have to be farther than 500AU away from the Sun.

To make matters worse for the planet nine theory, this is the fourth sednoid to be discovered. The other three also exhibit stable orbits, similarly suggesting that any planet nine would have to be very far away indeed.

Nonetheless, the possibility remains there could still be a massive planet affecting the orbits of bodies within the Kuiper Belt. But astronomers’ ability to find any such planet remains somewhat limited by the restrictions of even unmanned space travel. It would take 118 years for a spacecraft to travel far enough away to find it, based on estimates from the speed of Nasa’s New Horizons explorer.

This means we’ll have to continue to rely on ground- and space-based telescopes to detect anything. New asteroids and distant objects are being discovered all the time as our observing capabilities become more detailed, which should gradually shed more light on what might be out there. So watch this (very big) space, and let’s see what emerges in the coming years.

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Ian Whittaker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The hunt for ‘planet nine’: why there could still be something massive at the edge of the Solar System – https://theconversation.com/the-hunt-for-planet-nine-why-there-could-still-be-something-massive-at-the-edge-of-the-solar-system-261784

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Joseph Richardson, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography, Newcastle University

What does masculinity have to do with the climate? A surprising amount.

For example, significant figures in the manosphere combine misogyny with anti-environmentalism. Think Andrew Tate boasting of his fleet of cars and his private jet. And because care is central to climate action, it may be seen as “women’s work”.

I recently spoke at a panel event in Newcastle, organised by The Conversation and youth charity Cumberland Lodge, on youth, masculinity and the political divide. The sheer breadth of the discussion – between academics and teenage members of NE Youth on the panel and members of the audience – show how messages and beliefs about gender roles and masculinity are embedded in so many aspects of society and our lives.

My research explores what academics call ecological masculinities. This recognises that there are gender and class expectations of who takes the lead in climate action, like the ones I mentioned.

When young, working-class men – many of whom have never been invited into environmentalism before – get involved with climate action, this is more than helping the environment. It’s reshaping perceptions of who gets to play a caring role, including environmental care.

As part of my research, I’m working on the National Lottery Climate Action Fund project Birds, Bees, Bikes and Trees. This is a partnership between Gateshead’s Baltic Centre for Contemporary Art and North East Young Dads and Lads, a regional charity working with young fathers and their families. Through the project, young men get involved in planting trees, making pollinator habitats, and learning skills in bicycle maintenance.

In listening to the young men at the project launch of Birds, Bees, Bikes and Trees I learned that they live their lives locally. They do not go on holidays abroad. They visit local shops and the vast majority do not own a car – they walk, cycle or take public transport.

But they are not commended for their green citizenship. Instead, they are often marked by poverty and deprivation. This view, which sees them as lacking, consigns their demographic to marginalisation. They are seen as without education and without opportunity. It also helps explain why private car ownership is seen as aspirational.

Many areas of north-east England can be considered “left behind places”. At the panel event, attendees talked eloquently about how in their communities, stories of their hometown’s past industrial successes have become their inherited legacies. The decline of traditional industries, often associated with traditional ideas of masculinities, has created generational gaps, a vacuum in identity and purpose.

Opening up environmental care to young men brings opportunities. I am one of a team of beekeepers who tend to two beehives on the south facing roof of the Baltic.

These hives are managed by the North East Young Dads and Lads. Due to conditions at this site – looking after bees at 42 metres in the air – the young men are offered extra training that provides them with industrial skills, in this case industry standard health and safety certification for harness and lanyard working. This adds value to the their ecological efforts.

Young men involved in the project have become employed as beekeepers and cycling coordinators, as well as trained in bike maintenance, forest school leadership and outdoor first aid.

In the North East, though, environmental work has suffered a setback. Durham County Council – now run by Reform UK – has announced they’re removing the words equality and climate change from department names and have rescinded their climate emergency declaration.

This reflects the views of many Reform voters, who – according to YouGov polling – don’t see the environment as a key issue affecting the country.

But the net zero economy in the UK is already four times the size of the manufacturing sector. Challenging the narrative on masculinity – its relationship to caring, and to traditional forms of work – is beneficial for young men. One dad, now employed on the project as a community beekeeper and cycling coordinator, said:

Being more in touch with nature, not only the bees but the flowers and trees they forage on, has been an amazing experience … I see myself as a human worker bee in partnership with these fantastic little creatures, helping them produce a surplus of honey.

Planting trees, restoring bikes, inspecting bee hives and looking after green spaces isn’t just environmental work. It’s emotional work. It’s care work. And changing the narrative on who gets to do it is vitally important.

Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

Michael Joseph Richardson receives funding from National Lottery Community Fund.

– ref. Why modern masculinity is a climate issue – https://theconversation.com/why-modern-masculinity-is-a-climate-issue-260868

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Simmonds, Strategy & International Business Group, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The last few months have been busy for Royal Mail. In late April, Czech businessman Daniel Kretinsky’s EP Group acquired its parent company, International Distribution Services, for £3.6 billion – a value well below the May 2021 peak of £6 billion.

Then, regulator Ofcom announced that from July 28 there would be changes to a regulatory framework called the universal service obligation (USO). This effectively determines delivery standards for Royal Mail – and has been seen as a major barrier to its profitability. The company, which was privatised in 2013, made an adjusted operating loss of £348 million in 2023-24 (and £419 million in 2022-23).

So what do the events of the past few months mean for its future?

It has seen letter volumes fall from a peak of 20 billion in 2004-5 to only 6.6 billion in 2023-24. At the same time, parcel volumes have grown to 3.9 billion – driven by a rise in home shopping. However, Royal Mail has struggled to manage this shift and maintain profitability, effectively downsizing letter infrastructure and rebalancing its workforce to reflect this.

Meanwhile, the costs of meeting its USO obligations have meant its performance has deteriorated. There is competition in letters – but only for the most profitable business. Delivery company Whistl collects and processes bulk business mail and pays Royal Mail to deliver “the last mile”. But Whistl sits outside the USO and can cherry-pick its market segment.

The new USO still requires Royal Mail to deliver first-class letters six days a week, but second-class deliveries will now be on alternate weekdays only. Parcel deliveries are five days a week. Crucially, the obligation applies to around 32 million UK addresses – all for the same price.

The target for delivering first-class post within one day is falling from 93.5% to 90%. For second-class, the three-day target is falling from 98.5% to 95%. There’s also a new target – 99% of all post must arrive no more than two days late.

In making these changes, Ofcom is seeking to strike a balance between reliability, affordability and sustainability. It believes the changes will save Royal Mail between £250 million and £425 million a year, ensuring the service will break even and continue.

However, the company’s 2024-25 performance is below the new targets (76.5% for first-class and 92.2% for second class). As such, it’s likely to come in for more fines from Ofcom to add to those totalling £16 million for the previous two years.

In addition, its ability to increase revenue by raising prices might be curtailed. Second-class prices are regulated – increases are linked to affordability and inflation. They have risen by 74% since 2013, while first-class prices are unregulated and increased by 183%. For comparison, inflation was around 40% over the same period.

Ofcom has said it may also regulate first-class costs, amid concerns that Royal Mail may raise them to such a level that demand disappears, leaving only second-class post.

Change must come

Despite growth, Royal Mail’s parcels business faces headwinds – its market share fell from 45% in 2014-15 to 35% in 2023-24. Competitors, including FedEx, DHL, Evri, DPD and Amazon are not encumbered by USO obligations. This means they can be leaner and more aggressive in their pricing.

In 2020, Royal Mail lost its monopoly with the Post Office, which now also offers services from Evri and DPD. These two companies recently announced a merger, which is awaiting approval by regulator the Competition and Markets Authority but could create a company delivering more than a billion parcels a year.

In addition to modernising sorting offices, Royal Mail will quickly need to adopt technology such as smart postboxes and parcel lockers in order to compete – but for now it is well behind. A recent contract with supermarket Sainsbury’s to put lockers in stores is a good start, but Royal Mail has only 1,500 lockers compared to Amazon’s 5,000 and Inpost’s more than 7,500.

The impact of the EP Group takeover may take some time to be realised. The guarantees given to the government and unions to get the deal done will limit the extent of change for the first few years. Key assurances include maintaining the USO (whatever form that might take) and regulatory compliance, as well as keeping headquarters and tax residency in the UK.

On top of this, it must also protect the brand, reinvest any pension surplus into Royal Mail, and it cannot sell off or break up the company, outsource services or make compulsory redundancies.

These legally binding commitments, supported by a government “golden share” with some veto powers, are not open-ended. Most are valid for five years but that of no compulsory redundancies was originally valid only until 2025. What happens after they expire is uncertain, but the business has to change significantly. Kretinsky has spoken of the need to modernise to keep pace with competitors. This means there will have to be significant change – sooner rather than later.

Improving productivity will be key, and that is very likely to mean redundancies and changes to work practices. Royal Mail’s management faced a series of damaging strikes in 2022 and 2023. But Kretinsky has sought to work with unions, principally the Communication Workers Union.

He has reached a three-year pay deal with greater job security. But efficiency needs to be improved if Royal Mail is to become profitable – and in a labour-intensive business that could mean difficult decisions and fewer employees.

What Royal Mail has in its favour however is its status as a trusted brand (although recent delivery performance may have tarnished that in some customers’ eyes). Changes to the USO will help in the short term. But the volume of letters will continue to fall and the company’s success will still depend on its ability to match capacity with demand while achieving its targets.

Further USO changes are inevitable. And so is the demise of first-class post, as price increases render it a low-volume, uneconomic service. The takeover is likely to accelerate change.

The parcels business will probably become an integral part of a pan-European logistics enterprise, alongside EP’s existing ventures and Royal Mail’s sister firm, parcel company GLS. This inevitably leaves the letters side of the company as a much smaller offering – with a very uncertain future.

Paul Simmonds does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Royal Mail’s delivery pledges have changed. Here’s what the company could look like in future – https://theconversation.com/royal-mails-delivery-pledges-have-changed-heres-what-the-company-could-look-like-in-future-261643

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Malak Benslama-Dabdoub, Lecturer in law, Royal Holloway University of London

Emmanuel Macron’s pledge to formally recognise the state of Palestine will make France the first G7 country and member of the UN security council to do so. The question is whether others will follow suit. The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, is coming under mounting pressure from many of his MPs, and has recalled his cabinet from their summer recess to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Starmer is expected to announce a peace plan for the Middle East this week that will include British recognition of Palestinian statehood. Downing Street sources said recognition was a matter of “when, not if”.

Recognition of statehood is not merely symbolic. The Montevideo convention of 1933 established several criteria which must apply before an entity can be recognised as a sovereign state. These are a permanent population, a defined territory, an effective government and the ability to conduct international relations.

The process involves the establishment of formal diplomatic relations, including the opening of embassies, the exchange of ambassadors, and the signing of bilateral treaties. Recognition also grants the recognised state access to certain rights in international organisations. For Palestinians, such recognition will strengthen their claim to sovereignty and facilitate greater international support.

Macron’s announcement was met with enthusiasm in many Arab capitals, as well as among Palestinian officials and supporters of the two-state solution. It was also praised by a number of European leaders as well as several journalists and other analysts as a long-overdue step toward a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

However, the reaction from other major powers was swift and critical. The US called it “a reckless decision” while the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he “strongly condemned” it. Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, called it “counterproductive”.

Within hours, it was clear that Macron’s announcement had both shifted diplomatic discourse and reignited longstanding divisions.

France’s decision is significant. It signals a departure from the western consensus, long shaped by the US and the EU, that any recognition of Palestinian statehood must be deferred until after final-status negotiations. The move also highlights growing frustration in parts of Europe with the ongoing violence in Gaza and the failure of peace talks over the past two decades.

Yet questions remain: what does this recognition actually entail? Will it change conditions on the ground for Palestinians? Or is it largely symbolic?

So far, the French government has offered no details on whether this recognition will be accompanied by concrete measures. There has been no mention of sanctions on Israel, no indication of halting arms exports, no pledges of increased humanitarian aid or support for Palestinian governance institutions. France remains a key military and economic partner of Israel, and Macron’s announcement does not appear to alter that relationship.

Nor is this the first time a western country has taken a symbolic stance in support of Palestinian statehood. Sweden recognised the state of Palestine in 2014, becoming the first western European country to do so. It was followed by Spain in 2024.

However, both moves were largely symbolic and did not significantly alter the political or humanitarian situation on the ground. The risk is that recognition, without action, becomes a gesture that changes little.

Macron’s statement also raised eyebrows for another reason: his emphasis on a “demilitarised Palestinian state” living side-by-side with Israel in peace and security. While such language is common in diplomatic discourse, it also reflects a deeper tension.

Palestinians have long argued that their right to self-determination includes the right to defend themselves against occupation. Calls for demilitarisation are often seen by critics as reinforcing the status quo, where security concerns are framed almost exclusively in terms of Israeli needs.

In the absence of a genuine political process, some analysts have warned that recognition of this kind risks formalising a state in name only – a fragmented, non-sovereign entity without control over its borders, resources or defence. Without guarantees of territorial continuity, an end to the expansion of Israeli settlements and freedom of movement, statehood may remain an abstract concept.

What would meaningful support look like?

If France wishes to go beyond symbolism, it has options. It could suspend arms exports to Israel or call for an independent international investigation into alleged war crimes. It could use its influence within the EU to push for greater accountability regarding illegal settlements and the blockade of Gaza. It could also support Palestinian institutions directly and engage with Palestinian civil society.

Without such steps, recognition risks being viewed as a political message more than a policy shift. For Palestinians, the daily realities of occupation, displacement and blockade will not change with diplomatic announcements alone. What is needed, many argue, is not just recognition but support for justice, rights and meaningful sovereignty.

France’s recognition of Palestine marks a shift in diplomatic tone and reflects broader unease with the status quo in the Middle East. It has stirred debate at home and abroad, and raised expectations among those hoping for more robust international engagement with the conflict.

Whether this recognition leads to meaningful changes in policy or conditions on the ground remains to be seen. Much will depend on the steps France takes next – both at the United Nations and through its actions on trade, security and aid.

Malak Benslama-Dabdoub does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. France is set to recognise the state of Palestine and the UK may follow – but what does it really mean? – https://theconversation.com/france-is-set-to-recognise-the-state-of-palestine-and-the-uk-may-follow-but-what-does-it-really-mean-262095