Viral ‘kettlebell challenge’ could do you more harm than good – here’s why

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jen Wilson, Senior Exercise and Health Practitioner, Nottingham Trent University

The challenge may sound like a quick and easy way to get fit, but it may actually be the least effective way of adding kettlebells to your workouts. Tongpool Piasupun/ Shutterstock

The “100 kettlebell swings a day” challenge is the latest viral fitness endeavour on social media. The challenge is simple: pick up a kettlebell and do 100 swings (bringing the kettlebell from between your legs and using your core and glutes to swing it up to chest or shoulder height) every day. These can be done either in one stint, or broken up throughout the day.

Proponents of the challenge say it leads to fat loss, improved muscle mass and a stronger posterior chain (glutes, back and hamstrings) – all in a short daily session.

At first glance, it sounds like a time-efficient, no-fuss approach to getting fitter with minimal equipment. But while there’s some merit in consistency, this type of challenge often ignores fundamental principles of exercise and training – and could even do more harm than good.

Here’s a few reasons why it might be best to skip the kettlebell challenge – and what you can try instead.

1. It’s not personalised to you

One of the biggest flaws in the 100 kettlebell swings challenge is that it treats everyone the same, regardless of experience level, injury history, mobility or training goals. What’s manageable for an advanced athlete could cause problems for a beginner with poor hip mobility or lower back issues.

Daily, high-rep dynamic movements which use explosive power, such as kettlebell swings, require good technique, good posture and body awareness. Without that, you’re simply reinforcing poor movement patterns. Worse, you could be inviting injury when such movements are done repeatedly.

Effective training should be personalised – or at least adapted to your movement abilities and fitness requirements in order to have the most impact.

2. No room for progress

The human body adapts quickly. If you do the same 100 reps with the same amount of weight every single day, the challenge becomes less effective over time. That initial burn you felt in week one? It’ll be gone by week three.

In well-designed training programmes, there’s a principle called “progressive overload”. This involves gradually increasing stress on the body, either through the amount of weight you’re lifting, the number of repetitions you do of an exercise, the number of sets you complete or the complexity of your movements.

The 100-swing challenge skips this entirely. This means you’ll probably hit a plateau fairly quickly.

3. Risk of injury

Doing 100 swings every day, especially without rest or proper technique, can lead to injuries such as muscle strains or joint pain in the back and shoulders.

Too much repetitive movement, insufficient recovery time and inexperience can also lead to an increased risk of an overuse injury – a condition caused by repeated stress on muscles, joints or tissues. This often results in pain, swelling, or stiffness and could potentially mean taking weeks or even months off from working out to fully recover.

Picking up this challenge might be appealing but it also ticks a lot of boxes for overuse injury.

4. It undermines recovery

Recovery between workouts is not optional. In fact, it’s where the actual adaptation happens. Training breaks the body down, while recovery builds it back stronger.

Kettlebell swings, especially if performed explosively and with heavier loads, place stress on your central nervous system. Doing them every single day without rest days, mobility work (such as stretching) or variation can lead to chronic fatigue, poor sleep, nagging injuries and even reduced performance in other areas of training.

A group of young, fit people perform kettlebell swings in a gym.
This daily challenge doesn’t leave the body enough time for integral recovery.
wavebreakmedia/ Shutterstock

If you’ve started the challenge and find you’re constantly sore, tight or worn down, the challenge may be doing more harm than good.

5. It’s a one-dimensional solution

Fitness isn’t just about repetition. True strength and conditioning involves a variety of movements, such as pushing, pulling, squatting, rotating and stabilising.

The 100-swing challenge trains only one plane of motion and one movement pattern. While that’s better than nothing, it’s nowhere near comprehensive. Moreover, doing the same task over and over can become mindless. You’re not necessarily getting stronger or fitter – you’re just going through the motions.

A smarter way to use kettlebells

In fairness, the challenge does have some value in the right context. For beginners who need structure, it can help establish a daily habit. It requires minimal equipment, little space and can raise heart rate, build endurance and activate the posterior chain.

But for it to be sustainable and effective, a few things must be in place:

  • Your form must be solid
  • The kettlebell weight must be appropriate for your fitness level
  • You should vary the volume or intensity over time
  • You should include rest days
  • It should be part of a broader training plan – not your only form of training

If you enjoy kettlebell swings, there are more intelligent and safer ways to include them in your training than doing 100 reps every day.

Try incorporating swings into interval sessions, circuits or strength workouts with varied repetitions and loads. Instead of doing 100 swings alone, aim for 100 total reps using a mix of exercises, such as goblet squats, rows and presses. This approach not only keeps things more balanced, but also reduces the risk of injury from overuse and gives different muscle groups time to recover .

The “100 kettlebell swings a day” challenge might sound appealing in its simplicity, but simple doesn’t always mean smart. Without personalisation, progression and recovery, it can quickly turn into a repetitive grind that risks doing more harm than good.

Yes, training should be challenging, but it should also be strategic. Your body deserves more than just a checkbox of daily repetitions – it needs the right moves done the right way.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Viral ‘kettlebell challenge’ could do you more harm than good – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/viral-kettlebell-challenge-could-do-you-more-harm-than-good-heres-why-260010

Why do corporations act against the public interest? We may have the answers (it’s not just greed)

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen R. Buzdugan, Senior Lecturer in International Business, Manchester Metropolitan University

Jeppe Gustafsson/Shutterstock

For the past two years, Tesla has been embroiled in a bitter dispute with the Swedish labour union IF Metall. It is of a scale that the union hasn’t witnessed since the 1930s.

At the heart of the dispute is Tesla’s refusal to sign a collective bargaining agreement. This is a pillar of the “Swedish model” of labour relations, which is prized by Sweden’s citizens due to its perceived contribution to social wellbeing and shared prosperity.

Instead, Tesla has opted to circumvent striking union workers and bring its cars into the country using non-unionised labour and labour from neighbouring countries. Tesla’s actions to undermine a system that Sweden strongly supports are what we call “anti-societal”. That is, they might be said to undermine democratic norms and the broader public interest.

More broadly, it isn’t unusual to see corporations acting in ways that negatively affect the public interest, with effects such as environmental degradation, poor working conditions or violations of anti-trust laws. Multinational corporations are often in the news for violating or avoiding government regulations and working behind the scenes to influence regulation to their advantage.

Among many examples is the Volkswagen group’s “Dieselgate” emissions scandal. The German carmaker cheated on vehicle tests to make diesel cars seem less polluting than they were in reality. The company later acknowledged it had “screwed up” and breached customers’ trust.

And it is believed that oil and gas giant Exxon had evidence in the 1970s that fossil fuels contribute to climate change, but mounted a a campaign of disinformation in order to stifle regulation of their products. (In 2021, Exxon CEO Darren Woods told US politicians that the company “does not spread disinformation regarding climate change”.)

These examples raise the question of why corporations engage in activities against the public interest. Yet browse through any standard textbook used in a university business or management course, and you will struggle to find answers.

Instead, for several decades the standard viewpoint has been that multinational corporations are mainly economic entities without any particular interest in doing either harm or good. Any anti-societal corporate behaviour has typically been chalked up to a few “bad apples”.

The fact that corporations have political power and systematically use it in their interests in ways that harm society has been largely left out of the picture.

Our recent research shows that the underlying nature of the global economy can influence any corporation to behave anti-societally. We argue that under certain circumstances, a corporation like Tesla might face a threat that compromises its market position, assets or even its existence.

IF Metall, for example, poses a significant threat to Tesla’s business model. If the Swedish trade union wins this dispute it could strengthen the bargaining position of trade unions across Europe. In this case, a corporation like Tesla will exert its power to protect itself. But this often comes with negative consequences for society.

We call this the “self-preservation perspective” of the multinational corporation. It illuminates the ways in which corporations use political power to their advantage, often to society’s cost.

The balance of power

The self-preservation perspective can help people to understand how corporate political power should be challenged through both regulation and activism. Trade union action, for instance, can act as a powerful political force to balance corporate power.

The idea of “self-preservation” comes from international relations theory and an overlooked argument by the late Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith .These suggest that any organisation – a nation state or a multinational corporation – will seek primarily to preserve itself in the face of threats.

We apply the idea of self-preservation to modern multinational corporations that seek to survive in a global economy marked by fierce competition and complex regulation.

This perspective predicts that, when faced with a regulatory threat, a multinational corporation will weigh up four strategic options.

First, it may try to influence the regulation through sometimes ethically questionable political activities. Second, it may consider avoiding or ignoring the regulation by exploiting loopholes or by taking strategic legal action. Third, it can decide to comply with the regulation. And last, it can think about exiting the market altogether.

We predict that the corporation’s choice depends on its relative level of political power and resources, as well as the profitability of the market it is operating in. However, it also depends on how powerful it is in relation to governments, trade unions and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).

MOT documentation showing volkswagen emission details
Volkswagen tried to cheat its way around emissions regulation.
SGM/Shutterstock

If government enforcement or societal pressure are very strong, this may steer a corporation toward adapting to the regulation, rather than more negative influencing or avoiding behaviour. One example is Apple’s recent changes to its App Store rules in Europe, to comply with the European Union’s Digital Markets Act.

In the case of Tesla versus the Swedish union, Tesla has exerted its power to avoid regulation. In doing so it has considered the scale of the threat to its business model across Europe and its perceived power relative to the trade union. This possibly stems from Tesla’s strong ties to the technology sector, where engagement with unions is often seen as an unnecessary threat to innovation.

If Tesla’s avoidance strategy succeeds, it would effectively dissolve the Swedish model, creating a system that’s less secure for workers. From our self-preservation perspective, IF Metall’s success in the dispute will depend on how well – and how widely – the unions, government and citizens can galvanise opposition. By balancing corporate power in this way, societies might hope to protect their interests against the might of multinational giants.


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The Conversation

David Freund receives funding from Handelsbanken Research Foundation.

Ulf Holm receives funding from Handelsbanken’s Research Foundations.

Stephen R. Buzdugan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why do corporations act against the public interest? We may have the answers (it’s not just greed) – https://theconversation.com/why-do-corporations-act-against-the-public-interest-we-may-have-the-answers-its-not-just-greed-261866

From the Green party to Corbyn’s new launch – is it time Westminster took joint leaders more seriously?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Stern, Visiting Professor of Management Practice, Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London

Are two heads better than one? This is a question that members of the Green party will be asking themselves over the summer as they take part in the election of a new leader … or leaders.

Former co-leader Carla Denyer MP announced in May that she would not be standing again. Her co-leader, Adrian Ramsay MP, is now joined on the prospective leadership ticket by another Green MP, Ellie Chowns. (It is a Green party rule that where there is a joint leadership the job holders must be of different genders.)


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They are being challenged by Zack Polanski, currently deputy leader of the party and a member of the London Assembly, who has positioned himself not merely as a solo candidate but also as a rather more radical one. While his politics have little in common with those of Reform party leader Nigel Farage, Polanksi has suggested the Greens could learn from his approach.

The contest presents us with an intriguing conundrum – or even a paradox. In the real world – that is, away from Westminster – expecting a single human being to display all the qualities and attributes required to lead a complicated business or organisation is rightly seen as unrealistic. Leadership is a team activity, to be carried out collectively.

This is one reason why it’s so troubling to see excessive pay packets being delivered to bosses who should not be taking all the credit for the success of a business.

Of course, the leadership provided by the ultimate boss matters, but good corporate governance involves testing the suggestions and instincts of the chief executive with the ideas of other senior executives or directors. This is known, perhaps rather euphemistically on occasion, as “challenge”.

But in Westminster politics a rather more traditional (we could say old-fashioned) view of leadership prevails. Here the orthodoxy holds that something called “strong leadership” stems mainly from a dominant single figure who is firmly in charge.

This belief is based in part on the mythology which surrounds the leadership of Margaret Thatcher, the “Iron Lady” who supposedly never took a step back (although she did), and who dismissed “wets” and “moaning minnies” who expressed doubt about her policy choices. Tony Blair in turn paid homage to this mythology, famously once declaring: “I’ve got no reverse gear”.

In Westminster changing your mind, even in the light of new evidence, is invariably labelled a U-turn, and is considered to be bad. This is also how the British media frames their actions.

So here is the Green party’s conundrum: against this backdrop, they would arguably get better media coverage and perhaps win more support from voters if they installed a single leader in the more conventional way. This is the case that could be made for Polanski.

But at the same time, the Greens are not meant to be just like all the other parties. They have a different view of the world, so why should they conform to the other people’s view of what leadership looks like?

Behind every strong leader

Successful businesses have often been led by double acts. Behind some swaggering CEOs there is often a cautious and competent chief financial officer making sure the numbers add up.

When the Granada media group was growing to a dominant market position in the 1990s, its CEO, Gerry Robinson, got most of the attention but his trusted managing director, Charles Allen, was an equally important, if less prominent, figure. Berkshire Hathway, one of the world’s most successful investment vehicles, has been led by the well-known Warren Buffett for decades, but for most of that time he had his old but less famous friend Charlie Munger at his side (Munger died in 2023).

Westminster’s latest prototype party, the alliance of independent pro-Gaza MPs, is also considering a joint leadership structure with former Labour MPs Zarah Sultana and Jeremy Corbyn at the helm. The difficulty here is that it is not yet clear exactly how the two figures would share their leadership duties. The much-discussed launch is planned for later this year.

Voting for the new Green party leader(s) will take place through all of August, with the result declared on September 2. We will see if the arguments in favour of a more conventional leadership structure (albeit with more radical policies and tone) prevail over the less conventional structure (but with a steadier political approach).

Either way, the Greens will continue to provide an alternative voice and approach in our still developing multiparty era. And maybe that’s a good thing too. When you look around the world at some other self-styled “strong leaders” – Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, to name but three – a break from having similar aspiring “strong leaders” at Westminster might be welcome.


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Stefan Stern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. From the Green party to Corbyn’s new launch – is it time Westminster took joint leaders more seriously? – https://theconversation.com/from-the-green-party-to-corbyns-new-launch-is-it-time-westminster-took-joint-leaders-more-seriously-262058

The Assassin: Keeley Hawes drama is a milestone for menopause on screen

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Beth Johnson, Professor of Television & Media Studies, University of Leeds

Keeley Hawes’s new Channel 4 and Prime Video drama, The Assassin, introduces a premise that feels both bold and overdue. It follows Julie (Hawes), a menopausal woman, overlooked and emotionally stalled, who worked as a hitwoman in her youth and unexpectedly comes out of retirement to return to the profession.

It’s pulpy, stylised and laced with dark humour. But beneath the genre trappings lies something more striking – a cultural pivot in how menopause and midlife womanhood is being written and visualised on British television.

Historically, menopause has been television’s silent transition. Onscreen, it was something female characters either didn’t have, didn’t talk about, or, when acknowledged, were mocked for. Sitcoms of the 1980s and 1990s, such as Birds of a Feather or Absolutely Fabulous, played menopausal symptoms for laughs.

In drama, menopause tended to arrive invisibly: women stopped being protagonists, were subtly phased out of storylines, or returned only as wives, mothers, or medical cases.

Television has always been shaped by industry ideas about youth, sex appeal and marketability – ideas that left little room for midlife women unless confined to supporting roles – or contained within the domestic, ensemble structures of soap operas.

While shows like New Tricks (2003), Last Tango in Halifax (2012) and Call the Midwife (2012) gradually shifted the dial, menopause itself remained offscreen: considered either too niche, too biological, or too awkward to dramatise.


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What The Assassin offers is not just a menopausal character, but midlife as premise. Rather than sidelining her life stage, the show lets its rhythms – emotional turbulence, internal chaos, flickers of disorientation, flashes of wit and a deep, simmering strength – seep into the storytelling itself.

The story ties her hormonal shifts to emotional volatility, a sense of personal invisibility, fractured family life and existential grief. And then she snaps. But it’s not collapse; it’s re-ignition. She becomes lethal — not in spite of midlife, but because of it.

I research the way midlife female protagonists are presented in British television drama. I’ve recently written about Russell T. Davies’ work in particular, arguing that his dramas (such as It’s a Sin, 2021, and Nolly, 2023) reclaim neglected figures by placing their emotional complexity and cultural marginalisation at the centre.

Nolly offered a compelling reappraisal of Noele Gordon (played by Helena Bonham Carter), the soap star unceremoniously dumped from her own show – a decision now widely understood to be rooted in sexism and ageism. Davies refused to let her disappear quietly, instead making her menopause-era strength and defiance the dramatic core of his show.

The trailer for The Assasain.

Similarly, my work with Professor Kristyn Gorton on Sally Wainwright’s series Happy Valley (2014) explores how Catherine Cawood (played by Sarah Lancashire) embodies emotional realism, grief, rage and midlife fatigue – not as flaws, but as substance. These female characters don’t just react to events; they are the story. Their emotions are not incidental but generative, propelling the narrative, shaping its tone and demanding audience recognition.




Read more:
Happy Valley: the art of Sally Wainwright’s perfect TV ending


The Assassin fits this trajectory. It joins a growing body of British TV that blends genre hybridity with emotional and political resonance. Like Killing Eve (2018) or I Hate Suzie (2020), it uses the structure of the thriller to think critically about gender, ageing and identity.

The menopausal hitwoman is, of course, a metaphor as much as a plot. She is rage personified: a woman no longer governed by the social niceties that often temper female representation. She’s also funny, erratic and uncontained.

A menopausal reckoning

Importantly, The Assassin doesn’t simply celebrate her transformation. It stages it as messy, uncomfortable and morally complex. This is menopause not as a redemptive arc but as a reckoning, with a body that’s changing, a past that won’t stay buried, and a society that prefers women neat, young and silent.

There’s still work to do. British television remains far more comfortable exploring middle-aged male protagonists than women in the same life stage. But what’s changing, and what I frequently explore in my research, is the tone and ambition with which female midlife is now being scripted. Where menopause was once a punchline or absence, it’s becoming a story. And not just any story, but one shaped by genre, irony, feeling and risk.

Thanks to its long-form, visual medium, television can explore the ordinary in ways that resonate deeply, from the exhaustion of grief to the frustration of being dismissed. Menopause, long under-explored, offers rich dramatic territory: emotional volatility, bodily transformation, the redefinition of self. What The Assassin understands is that these aren’t signs of decline. They’re tools of narrative power.

By giving us a menopausal character who is central, subversive and narratively in control, The Assassin signals a broader shift. It reminds us that midlife is not an endpoint, but a site of potential – for drama, for comedy and for cultural critique. British television is, at last, beginning to give menopause the storylines it deserves.


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The Conversation

Beth Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The Assassin: Keeley Hawes drama is a milestone for menopause on screen – https://theconversation.com/the-assassin-keeley-hawes-drama-is-a-milestone-for-menopause-on-screen-262101

El precio de la sumisión: España paga la debilidad de Bruselas ante EE. UU.

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Armando Alvares Garcia Júnior, Professor de Direito Internacional e Relações Internacionais, UNIR – Universidad Internacional de La Rioja

El sector del aceite de oliva será uno de los más afectados por el acuerdo. BearFotos/Shutterstock

El acuerdo comercial firmado entre Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea, lejos de representar un éxito diplomático para Bruselas, revela la profunda crisis de liderazgo y de visión estratégica de la Comisión Europea. Bajo la presión de la Administración Trump, la UE ha cedido en aspectos fundamentales, consolidando una relación profundamente desigual que erosiona tanto la competitividad como la soberanía de los Estados miembros.

España se convierte, una vez más, en un ejemplo paradigmático de los costes de una negociación mal gestionada y de la desconexión de las élites europeas respecto a los intereses reales de sus ciudadanos y sectores productivos.

El corazón del pacto, sellado en Turnberry (Escocia) el domingo 27 de julio de 2025, es la imposición de un arancel general del 15 % a las exportaciones europeas a Estados Unidos. Este nivel, muy por encima del 1,4 % medio vigente antes de la escalada comercial abierta oficialmente por la Casa Blanca el 2 de abril de 2025, constituye una penalización directa a la industria, la agricultura y la tecnología europea, y no encuentra correspondencia en las importaciones de productos estadounidenses, que quedan libres de cualquier restricción equivalente.

La Comisión, en lugar de defender con firmeza el principio de reciprocidad, ha preferido instalarse en el “mal menor”, justificando su decisión en la supuesta amenaza de una guerra comercial abierta que, según Bruselas, traería consecuencias devastadoras para el empleo y el crecimiento.

Esta postura resignada transmite una preocupante falta de ambición y debilita la posición negociadora de la UE ante futuras rondas con Washington u otros bloques.

Un golpe al tejido productivo español

En España, el acuerdo golpea de manera directa al tejido productivo más dinámico y estratégico. El sector agroalimentario, con el aceite de oliva y el vino a la cabeza, verá encarecidos sus productos en el mercado estadounidense, con riesgo real de pérdida de cuota y cierre de empresas exportadoras.

Organizaciones empresariales como la Federación Española de Industrias de Alimentación y Bebidas han calificado la medida de “imposición injusta y desequilibrada”, alertando del peligro que supone para miles de empleos y para el equilibrio de la balanza comercial.

España, que ya mantiene un déficit comercial con EE. UU., pierde cualquier capacidad de compensar este golpe a través de otros mercados, en un contexto global marcado por el proteccionismo y la rivalidad de potencias.

Golpe al vino y al aceite de oliva

La industria vinícola calcula que el nuevo arancel puede reducir las ventas en Estados Unidos hasta un 10 %, justo cuando la competencia internacional es más intensa y el margen de maniobra para pequeñas y medianas empresas es mínimo.

El sector del aceite de oliva, del que España es líder mundial, se enfrenta a un escenario similar: más de mil millones de euros en exportaciones en juego y ningún mecanismo de apoyo efectivo por parte de Bruselas, a pesar de su esperpéntico documento de autobombo.

El pacto va mucho más allá del simple intercambio de bienes. La Comisión Europea ha aceptado un compromiso masivo de compras de energía estadounidense –gas natural, petróleo y combustible nuclear– por valor de 640 000 millones de euros en el periodo 2025-2028. Esta decisión, presentada como un paso hacia la independencia de las materias primas rusas, en realidad supone una transferencia de dependencia y una renuncia explícita a la diversificación de proveedores.

La Comisión tampoco ha defendido la industria de defensa europea, comprometiendo inversiones y adquisiciones de armamento estadounidense sin transparencia ni debate democrático real sobre los términos y la conveniencia estratégica de estas compras.

Críticas y desconfianza de los ciudadanos

El acuerdo ha desatado críticas en todo el continente, no solo entre los países más afectados, sino también en los principales aliados de Bruselas. La tibieza de la defensa institucional, la falta de transparencia y el desdén por los intereses de la industria europea están alimentando la creciente desconfianza de los ciudadanos y reforzando el escepticismo ante el proyecto comunitario.

Las justificaciones de la Comisión, basadas en evitar una guerra comercial a cualquier precio, no resisten el análisis cuando el coste real es una pérdida sostenida de autonomía, empleo y capacidad de influencia.

La gestión de este acuerdo evidencia las carencias de la actual Comisión Europea en materia de liderazgo, defensa de intereses estratégicos y conexión con las necesidades reales de la economía europea.

La renuncia a exigir reciprocidad, el sacrificio de sectores clave y la aceptación de una nueva dependencia –energética y militar– confirman un retroceso preocupante. España, como otros Estados miembros, paga un precio alto por la resignación de Bruselas, y el conjunto del continente enfrenta el riesgo de una década perdida en autonomía y competitividad si no se recupera la ambición y la firmeza en la defensa de sus intereses.

The Conversation

Armando Alvares Garcia Júnior no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. El precio de la sumisión: España paga la debilidad de Bruselas ante EE. UU. – https://theconversation.com/el-precio-de-la-sumision-espana-paga-la-debilidad-de-bruselas-ante-ee-uu-262172

El terremoto de Kamchatka figura entre los diez más fuertes jamás registrados: esto es lo que tienen en común

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

El terremoto de magnitud 8,8 que sacudió la costa de la península de Kamchatka, en el extremo oriental de Rusia, es uno de los diez más fuertes de la historia y el mayor del mundo desde 2011. Este seísmo ha causado daños en edificios y heridos en la ciudad más grande cercana, Petropávlovsk-Kamchatski, a solo 119 kilómetros del epicentro.

Las alertas de tsunami y las evacuaciones han resonado en Rusia, Japón y Hawái, y se han emitido avisos para Filipinas, Indonesia y lugares tan lejanos como Nueva Zelanda y Perú.

La región del Pacífico es muy propensa a sufrir terremotos de gran intensidad y los tsunamis que estos provocan, ya que se encuentra en el llamado Cinturón de Fuego, una zona de elevada actividad sísmica y volcánica. Los diez terremotos más potentes registrados en la historia moderna se produjeron en esa región.

He aquí por qué la estructura subyacente de nuestro planeta hace que esta parte del mundo sea tan inestable.

¿Por qué se producen terremotos tan fuertes en Kamchatka?

Justo frente a la costa de la península de Kamchatka se encuentra la fosa de Kuril-Kamchatka, un límite de placas tectónicas donde la placa del Pacífico empuja bajo la placa de Okhotsk.

Mientras que las placas tectónicas se mueven continuamente unas respecto a otras, la interconexión entre ellas suele estar “atascada”. La tensión se acumula hasta que supera la resistencia de dicha zona de contacto, momento en el que se libera en forma de ruptura repentina: se produce un terremoto.

Debido a las grandes extensiones de los puntos de contacto en los límites de las placas, tanto en longitud como en profundidad, la ruptura puede abarcar grandes áreas. Esto da lugar a algunos de los terremotos más grandes y potencialmente destructivos de la Tierra.

Otro factor que influye en la frecuencia y la magnitud de los terremotos en las zonas de subducción es la velocidad a la que se mueven las dos placas entre sí.

En el caso de Kamchatka, la placa del Pacífico se mueve a aproximadamente 75 milímetros por año con respecto a la de Okhotsk. Se trata de una velocidad relativamente alta para los estándares tectónicos, lo que provoca que los grandes terremotos sean más frecuentes aquí que en otras zonas de subducción. En 1952, se produjo un terremoto de magnitud 9,0 en la misma zona de subducción, a solo unos 30 kilómetros del terremoto de magnitud 8,8 producido hoy.

Otros ejemplos de terremotos en límites de placas de subducción son el terremoto de magnitud 9,1 de Tohoku-Oki (Japón) de 2011 y el terremoto de magnitud 9,3 de Sumatra-Andaman Indonesia, ocurrido en 2004. Ambos se iniciaron a una profundidad relativamente baja y rompieron el límite de la placa hasta la superficie.

Elevaron un lado del lecho marino con respecto al otro, desplazando el océano que se encontraba sobre él y provocando devastadores tsunamis. En el caso del terremoto del 26 de diciembre de 2004, la ruptura del lecho marino se produjo a lo largo de unos 1400 km.

¿Qué es probable que suceda a continuación?

En el momento de redactar este artículo, aproximadamente seis horas después del terremoto, ya se han producido 35 réplicas de magnitud superior a 5,0, según el Servicio Geológico de los Estados Unidos.

Las réplicas se producen cuando la tensión dentro de la corteza terrestre se redistribuye tras el terremoto principal. A menudo son de una magnitud inferior a la del seísmo principal. En el caso del terremoto de hoy, eso significa que son posibles réplicas de magnitud superior a 7,5.

En un terremoto de esta magnitud, las réplicas pueden continuar durante semanas o meses, pero normalmente disminuyen en magnitud y frecuencia con el tiempo.

El seísmo de hoy también ha provocado un tsunami que ya ha afectado a las comunidades costeras de la península de Kamchatka, las islas Kuriles y Hokkaido, en Japón.

En las próximas horas, ese tsunami se propagará por el Pacífico, llegando a Hawái aproximadamente seis horas después del terremoto y continuando hasta Chile y Perú.

Los científicos especializados en tsunamis seguirán perfeccionando sus modelos de sus efectos a medida que se propague, y las autoridades de defensa civil proporcionarán información oficial sobre los efectos locales previstos.

¿Qué lecciones se pueden extraer de este terremoto para otras partes del mundo?

Afortunadamente, terremotos tan grandes como el de hoy son poco frecuentes. Sin embargo, sus efectos a nivel local y en todo el mundo pueden ser devastadores.

Aparte de su magnitud, varios aspectos del terremoto de hoy en Kamchatka lo convertirán en un foco de investigación especialmente importante.

Por ejemplo, la zona ha sido muy activa sísmicamente en los últimos meses, y el 20 de julio se produjo un terremoto de magnitud 7,4. La forma en que esta actividad previa ha afectado a la ubicación y el momento del evento de hoy será un aspecto crucial de la investigación.

Al igual que Kamchatka y el norte de Japón, Nueva Zelanda también se encuentra sobre una zona de subducción; de hecho, sobre dos zonas de subducción. La mayor de ellas, la zona de subducción de Hikurangi, se extiende mar adentro a lo largo de la costa este de la isla Norte.

Según las características de estos puntos de contacto entre placas y los registros geológicos de terremotos pasados, es probable que la zona de subducción de Hikurangi sea capaz de producir terremotos de magnitud 9. No lo ha hecho en tiempos históricos, pero si ocurriera, provocaría un tsunami.

La amenaza de un gran terremoto en la zona de subducción nunca desaparece. El terremoto de hoy en Kamchatka es un importante recordatorio para todos los que viven en zonas propensas a los terremotos de que deben mantenerse a salvo y prestar atención a las advertencias de las autoridades de defensa civil.

The Conversation

Dee Ninis trabaja en el Centro de Investigación Sismológica, es Vicepresidenta de la Sociedad Australiana de Ingeniería Sísmica y miembro del Comité de la Sociedad Geológica de Australia – División Victoria.

John Townend recibe financiación de los fondos Marsden y Catalyst de la Royal Society Te Apārangi, de la Comisión de Riesgos Naturales Toka Tū Ake y del Ministerio de Empresa, Innovación y Empleo de Nueva Zelanda. Ha sido presidente y director de la Sociedad Sismológica de América y presidente de la Sociedad Geofísica de Nueva Zelanda.

ref. El terremoto de Kamchatka figura entre los diez más fuertes jamás registrados: esto es lo que tienen en común – https://theconversation.com/el-terremoto-de-kamchatka-figura-entre-los-diez-mas-fuertes-jamas-registrados-esto-es-lo-que-tienen-en-comun-262245

Tsunamis: qué altura pueden alcanzar las olas como las generadas por el terremoto en Rusia

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By José Luis González Fernández, Profesor Ayudante Doctor Didáctica de las Matemáticas, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha

Grandes olas en la playa de Garrapata (California) Gustavo Gerdel/Wikimedia commons, CC BY-SA

Las olas han fascinado a la humanidad desde tiempos inmemoriales, tanto por su belleza como por su fuerza destructiva. Hoy, esa dualidad se manifiesta con crudeza tras el terremoto de magnitud 8,8 en Rusia, que ha desatado alertas de tsunami en todo el Pacífico y ha obligado a evacuar a millones de personas. Este tipo de fenómenos nos recuerda que, más allá de su estética, las olas pueden convertirse en fuerzas implacables de la naturaleza.

La ola de un terremoto

El terremoto más potente jamás registrado (terremoto de Valdivia, Chile, 1960) liberó la energía equivalente a 20 000 bombas atómicas de Hiroshima. Tal energía podría provocar un tsunami de solo 4,55 metros de altura en alta mar, pero que podría ascender hasta 1,7 kilómetros en costa. El aumento se debe al llamado efecto shoaling o asomeramiento: las olas aumentan de tamaño al acercarse a la costa.

Sin embargo, el tamaño real fue muchísimo menor (unos 10 metros) ya que el terremoto se produjo en tierra firme y no toda la energía fue a parar a una sola ola. Eso no quiere decir que no fuera destructor: el tsunami atravesó el océano Pacífico, causando la muerte de más de 2 000 personas en Chile, Perú, Hawái y Japón.

Animación de The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) muestra cómo se propagó por el océano Pacífico el tsunami que generó el terremoto de Chile y llegó a Japón.

Donde el viento y la física chocan

En condiciones normales, la mayoría de las olas están generadas por viento. Tienen un ciclo de formación, crecimiento y rompimiento que depende de la velocidad, alcance y duración del viento y la profundidad del agua. Sin embargo, incluso en condiciones óptimas, las olas no pueden crecer indefinidamente.

La física establece una proporción límite entre la altura de una ola y su longitud de onda: cuando esa relación supera 1/7, la ola se vuelve inestable y rompe. Es decir, la cresta se desploma hacia adelante porque ya no puede sostenerse.

Además, hay otro factor clave: la profundidad del agua. A medida que una ola se acerca a la costa, el fondo marino frena su base mientras la cresta sigue avanzando, lo que hace que la onda se incline y eventualmente rompa. En aguas poco profundas, una ola no puede tener una altura mayor a aproximadamente 0,88 veces la profundidad local. Así, en una playa donde el agua tiene 3 metros de profundidad, la ola máxima teórica que podría romper sería de unos 2,64 metros. Este límite es observable y verificable, y se utiliza frecuentemente en ingeniería costera y en predicción de oleajes.

Ambos fenómenos establecen algunos de los límites fundamentales a la altura de las olas en el mar.

Gigantes inesperados: la ola Draupner

Ahora bien, hay ocasiones en que el océano parece desafiar estas reglas. Las llamadas olas extremas o rogue waves (olas monstruo) son eventos poco frecuentes pero muy reales, en los que una ola de tamaño descomunal aparece sin aviso, duplicando o triplicando la altura típica del oleaje circundante.

Una de las más conocidas fue registrada en 1995 por una plataforma petrolera en el mar del Norte: la ola Draupner, que alcanzó los 25,6 metros de altura. Este evento confirmó lo que hasta entonces muchos consideraban un mito marinero. Desde entonces, varios estudios han demostrado que estas olas extremas pueden formarse por la combinación constructiva de múltiples olas, la interacción con corrientes oceánicas, o fenómenos aún en estudio. Sin embargo, en la práctica, su altura no suele superar los 30 metros en mar abierto.

Recreación de la ola Draupner para un documental de la BBC.

Cuando la Tierra crea olas: 520 metros de altura

Más allá de lo que el viento puede generar, existen olas de origen geológico conocidas como megatsunamis. Estas olas se producen por deslizamientos de tierra, colapsos de glaciares o impactos de meteoritos, que desplazan una enorme cantidad de agua de forma repentina.

Un caso dramático ocurrió en la Bahía de Lituya, en Alaska, en 1958. Un sismo de 7,8 grados en la Escala de Richter provocó el desprendimiento de una montaña. Más de 30 millones de metros cúbicos de tierra y piedras cayeron en bloque al agua, desde una altura de 900 metros. El colapso provocó una ola que alcanzó una altura estimada de 524 metros.

fiordo con montañas y lago que muestran donde se desprendión una montaña
Esquema que muestra dónde se produjo el desprendimiento de la montaña que provocó el megatsunami en la bahía de Lituya (Alaska).
Wikimedia commons, CC BY

Este fenómeno, aunque real, fue muy distinto de las olas comunes puesto que no se produjo en el océano. Sólo afectó al fiordo.

La energía necesaria para formar algo similar en mar abierto es tan colosal que solo podría producirse por eventos extraordinarios, como el impacto de un gran asteroide en el océano.

El tamaño de un megatsunami

¿Existe entonces un límite físico al tamaño de un megatsunami? Es difícil responder con exactitud. Pero podemos hacer una estimación sencilla si nos centramos sólo en la energía asociada.

Imaginemos una única “ola” que se desplaza (también llamada solitón u ola solitaria) generada por un terremoto o el impacto de un meteorito. Por simplicidad, obviaremos la fricción, el flujo turbulento y otros factores complejos. La altura que puede alcanzar dependerá de su energía cinética y potencial. Si además conocemos algunos parámetros, como su anchura o velocidad, podremos estimar un valor.

Por tanto, vamos a introducir los datos correspondientes a algunos de los mayores fenómenos creadores de tsunamis conocidos. Así, veremos qué alturas máximas son físicamente posibles. No obstante, es importante tener en mente que sobreestiman los límites reales y muy probablemente nunca sean alcanzados.

La caída de un meteorito

Por otro lado, el meteorito más energético del que tenemos conocimiento, (Chicxulub), conocido popularmente por poner fin a los dinosaurios, liberó la energía equivalente a 67 000 millones de bombas de Hiroshima. Tanta energía podría haber generado una ola de no más de 16 kilómetros en costa, si bien en la literatura se estima que “sólo” habría alcanzado en torno a entre 1 y 3 kilómetros de altura.

No hay olas infinitas

Las olas no pueden crecer indefinidamente. Su altura está limitada por factores como la longitud de onda, la profundidad del agua y la energía disponible.

En mar abierto, las olas generadas por viento difícilmente superan los 30 metros. Más allá de eso, entramos en el terreno de los tsunamis y megatsunamis, que pueden generar olas de cientos de metros, pero dependen de procesos geológicos violentos y muy raros.

En cualquier caso, en la práctica, existe un límite razonable a la altura de las olas que el mar puede ofrecernos.

Podemos ir a la playa sin miedo, siempre, claro, que no vivamos, en estos momentos, en la costa afectada por el efecto del terremoto en Rusia.

The Conversation

Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.

ref. Tsunamis: qué altura pueden alcanzar las olas como las generadas por el terremoto en Rusia – https://theconversation.com/tsunamis-que-altura-pueden-alcanzar-las-olas-como-las-generadas-por-el-terremoto-en-rusia-260535

Kamchatka earthquake is among top 10 strongest ever recorded. Here’s what they have in common

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

Today at about 11:30am local time, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off the coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula in the country’s far east.

Originating at a depth of roughly 20 kilometres, today’s powerful earthquake – among the ten strongest in recorded history and the largest worldwide since 2011 – has caused building damage and injuries in the largest nearby city, Petropavlosk-Kamchatsky, just 119 kilometres from the epicentre.

Tsunami warnings and evacuations have reverberated through Russia, Japan and Hawaii, with advisories issued for the Philippines, Indonesia, and as far away as New Zealand and Peru.

The Pacific region is highly prone to powerful earthquakes and resulting tsunamis because it’s located in the so-called Ring of Fire, a region of heightened seismic and volcanic activity. All ten most powerful earthquakes recorded in modern history were located on the Ring of Fire.

Here’s why the underlying structure of our planet makes this part of the world so volatile.

Why does Kamchatka get such strong earthquakes?

Immediately offshore the Kamchatka Peninsula is the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench, a tectonic plate boundary where the Pacific Plate is being thrust beneath the Okhotsk Plate.

While tectonic plates move continuously relative to one another, the interface at tectonic plates is often “stuck”. The strain related to plate motion builds up until it exceeds the strength of the plate interface, at which point it is released as a sudden rupture – an earthquake.

Because of the large areas of interface at plate boundaries, both in length and depth, the rupture can span large areas of the plate boundary. This results in some of the largest and potentially most damaging earthquakes on earth.

Another factor that affects the rates and sizes of subduction zone earthquakes is the speed at which the two plates are moving relative to each other.

In the case of Kamchatka, the Pacific Plate is moving at approximately 75 millimetres per year relative to the Okhotsk plate. This is a relatively high speed by tectonic standards, and causes large earthquakes to happen more frequently here than in some other subduction zones. In 1952, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurred in the same subduction zone, only about 30 kilometres away from today’s magnitude 8.8 earthquake.

Other examples of subduction plate boundary earthquakes include the 2011 magnitude 9.1 Tohoku-Oki Japan earthquake, and the 2004 magnitude 9.3 Sumatra-Andaman Indonesia “Boxing Day” earthquake. Both of these initiated at a relatively shallow depth and ruptured the plate boundary right to the surface.

They uplifted one side of the sea floor relative to the other, displacing the ocean above it and resulting in devastating tsunamis. In the case of the Boxing Day earthquake, the sea floor rupture happened along a length spanning roughly 1,400km.

What is likely to happen next?

At time of writing, approximately six hours after the earthquake struck, there have already been 35 aftershocks larger than magnitude 5.0, according to the United States Geological Survey.

Aftershocks happen when stress within Earth’s crust is redistributed following the mainshock. They are often as large as one magnitude unit smaller than the mainshock. In the case of today’s earthquake, that means aftershocks larger than magnitude 7.5 are possible.

For an earthquake of this size, aftershocks can continue for weeks to months or longer, but they typically will reduce in both magnitude and frequency over time.

Today’s earthquake also produced a tsunami, which has already affected coastal communities on the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kurile Islands, and Hokkaido, Japan.

Over the coming hours, the tsunami will propagate across the Pacific, reaching Hawaii approximately six hours after the earthquake struck and continuing as far as Chile and Peru.

Tsunami scientists will continue to refine their models of the tsunami’s effects as it propagates, and civil defence authorities will provide authoritative advice on the expected local effects.




Read more:
Tsunami warnings are triggering mass evacuations across the Pacific – even though the waves look small. Here’s why


What are the lessons from this earthquake for other parts of the world?

Fortunately, earthquakes as large as today’s occur infrequently. However, their effects locally and across the globe can be devastating.

Apart from its magnitude, several aspects of today’s Kamchatka earthquake will make it a particularly important focus of research.

For instance, the area has been seismically very active in recent months, and a magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred on 20 July. How this previous activity affected the location and timing of today’s earthquake will be a crucial focus of that research.

Like Kamchatka and northern Japan, New Zealand also sits above a subduction zone – in fact, above two subduction zones. The larger of these, the Hikurangi subduction zone, extends offshore along the east coast of the North Island.

Based on the characteristics of this plate interface, and geological records of past earthquakes, it is likely the Hikurangi subduction zone is capable of producing earthquakes at magnitude 9. It hasn’t done so in historic times, but if that happened it would produce a tsunami.

The threat of a major subduction zone earthquake never goes away. Today’s earthquake in Kamchatka is an important reminder to everyone living in such earthquake-prone areas to stay safe and heed warnings from civil defence authorities.

The Conversation

Dee Ninis works at the Seismology Research Centre, is Vice-President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society, and a Committee Member for the Geological Society of Australia – Victoria Division.

John Townend receives funding from the Marsden and Catalyst Funds of the Royal Society Te Apārangi, the Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake, and the NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. He is a former president and director of the Seismological Society of America and president of the New Zealand Geophysical Society.

ref. Kamchatka earthquake is among top 10 strongest ever recorded. Here’s what they have in common – https://theconversation.com/kamchatka-earthquake-is-among-top-10-strongest-ever-recorded-heres-what-they-have-in-common-262223

Tsunami warnings are triggering mass evacuations across the Pacific – even though the waves look small. Here’s why

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow in Urban Risk and Resilience, The University of Melbourne

Last night, one of the ten largest earthquakes ever recorded struck Kamchatka, the sparsely populated Russian peninsula facing the Pacific. The magnitude 8.8 quake had its epicentre in the sea just off the Kamchatka coast.

Huge quakes such as these can cause devastating tsunamis. It’s no surprise this quake has triggered mass evacuations in Russia, Japan and Hawaii.

But despite the enormous strength of the quake, the waves expected from the resulting tsunami are projected to be remarkably small. Four metre-high waves have been reported in Russia. But the waves are projected to be far smaller elsewhere, ranging from 30 centimetres to 1 metre in China, and between 1 and 3 metres in parts of Japan, Hawaii and the Solomon Islands, as well as Ecuador and Chile on the other side of the Pacific.

map showing tsunami travel times from Kamchatka epicentre.
This map shows the estimated time in hours for tsunami waves from an earthquake in Kamchatka to reach different nations.
NOAA, CC BY-NC-ND

So why have authorities in Japan and parts of the United States announced evacuation orders? For one thing, tsunami waves can suddenly escalate, and even the smaller tsunami waves can pack surprising force. But the main reason is that late evacuation orders can cause panic and chaos. It’s far better to err on the side of caution.

This video shows tsunami waves hitting Severo-Kurilsk, a town on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia.

Too early is far better than too late

When tsunami monitoring centres issue early warnings about waves, there’s often a wide range given. That represents the significant uncertainty about what the final wave size will be.

As earthquake scientists Judith Hubbard and Kyle Bradley write:

the actual wave height at the shore depends on the specific bathymetry [underwater topography] of the ocean floor and shape of the coastline. Furthermore, how that wave impacts the coast depends on the topography on land. Do not second-guess a tsunami warning: evacuate to higher ground and wait for the all-clear.

If the decision was left to ordinary people to decide whether to evacuate, many might look at the projected wave heights and think “what’s the problem?”. This is why evacuation is usually a job for experts.

Behavioural scientists have found people are more likely to follow evacuation advice if they perceive the risk is real, if they trust the authorities and if there are social cues such as friends, family or neighbours evacuating.

If evacuations are done well, authorities will direct people down safe roads to shelters or safe zones located high enough above the ocean.

When people outside official evacuation zones flee on their own, this is known as a shadow evacuation. It often happens when people misunderstand warnings, don’t trust official boundaries, or feel safer leaving “just in case”.

While understandable, shadow evacuations can overload roads, clog evacuation routes, and strain shelters and resources intended for those at greatest risk.

Vulnerable groups such as older people and those with a disability often evacuate more slowly or not at all, putting them at much greater risk.

In wealthy nations such as Japan where tsunamis are a regular threat, drills and risk education have made evacuations run more smoothly and get more people to evacuate.

Japan also has designated vertical shelters – buildings to which people can flee – as well as coastal sirens and signs pointing to tsunami “safe zones”.

By contrast, most developing nations affected by tsunamis don’t have these systems or infrastructure in place. Death tolls are inevitably higher as a result.

More accurate warnings, fewer false alarms

A false alarm occurs when a tsunami warning is issued, but no hazardous waves arrive. False alarms often stem from the need to act fast. Because tsunamis can reach coastlines within minutes of an undersea earthquake, early warnings are based on limited and imprecise data — mainly the quake’s location and magnitude — before the tsunami’s actual size or impact is known.

In the past, tsunami alerts were issued using worst-case estimates based on simple tables linking quake size and location to fixed alert levels. These did not account for complex uncertainties in how the seafloor moved or how energy translated into how much water was displaced.

Even when waves are small at sea, they can behave unpredictably near shore. Tide gauge readings are easily distorted by nearby bays, seafloor shape and water depth. This approach often came at the cost of frequent false alarms.

A stark example came in 1986, when Hawaii undertook a major evacuation following an earthquake off the Aleutian Islands. While the tsunami did arrive on time, the waves didn’t cause any flooding. The evacuation triggered massive gridlock, halted businesses and cost the state an estimated A$63 million.

In 1987, the United States launched the DART program. This network of deep-sea buoys across the Pacific and, later, globally, measure changes in ocean pressure in real time, allowing scientists to verify whether a tsunami has actually been generated and to estimate its size far more accurately.

When there’s a tsunami false alarm, it makes people more sceptical of evacuation orders and compliance drops. Some people want to see the threat with their own eyes. But this delays action – and heightens the danger.

Shifting from simple tables and inferences to observational data has significantly reduced false alarms and improved public confidence. Today’s tsunami warnings combine quake analysis with real-time ocean data.

What have we learned from past tsunamis?

In 2004, a huge 9.1 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Aceh in Indonesia triggered the Indian Ocean tsunami, the deadliest in recorded history. Waves up to 30 metres high inundated entire cities and towns.

More than 227,000 people died throughout the region, primarily in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. All these countries had low tsunami preparedness. At the time, there were no tsunami warning systems in the Indian Ocean.

The even stronger 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan killed just under 20,000 people. It was a terrible toll, but far fewer than the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Evacuations took place and many people got to higher ground or into a high building.

In 2018, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake hit central Sulawesi in Indonesia, triggering tsunami waves up to 7 metres high. Citizen disbelief and a lack of clear communication meant many people did not evacuate in time. More than 4,000 people died.

These examples show the importance of warning systems and evacuations. But they also show their limitations. Even with warning systems in place, major loss of life can still ensue due to public scepticism and communication failures.

What should people do?

At their worst, tsunamis can devastate swathes of coastline and kill hundreds of thousands of people. They should not be underestimated.

If authorities issue an evacuation order, it is absolutely worth following. It’s far better to evacuate early and find a safe space in an orderly way, than to leave it too late and try to escape a city or town amid traffic jams, flooded roads and and widespread disruption.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Tsunami warnings are triggering mass evacuations across the Pacific – even though the waves look small. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/tsunami-warnings-are-triggering-mass-evacuations-across-the-pacific-even-though-the-waves-look-small-heres-why-262224

Emil Bove confirmed – his appeals court nomination echoed earlier controversies, but with a key difference

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Paul M. Collins Jr., Professor of Legal Studies and Political Science, UMass Amherst

Emil Bove, Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as a federal appeals judge for the 3rd Circuit, is sworn in during a confirmation hearing in Washington, D.C., on June 25, 2025. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc, via Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s nomination of his former criminal defense attorney, Emil Bove, to be a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit, was mired in controversy.

On June 24, 2025, Erez Reuveni, a former Department of Justice attorney who worked with Bove, released an extensive, 27-page whistleblower report. Reuveni claimed that Bove, as the Trump administration’s acting deputy attorney general, said “that it might become necessary to tell a court ‘fuck you’” and ignore court orders related to the administration’s immigration policies. Bove’s acting role ended on March 6 when he resumed his current position of principal associate deputy attorney general.

When asked about this statement at his June 25 Senate confirmation hearing, Bove said, “I don’t recall.”

And on July 15, 80 former federal and state judges signed a letter opposing Bove’s nomination. The letter argued that “Mr. Bove’s egregious record of mistreating law enforcement officers, abusing power, and disregarding the law itself disqualifies him for this position.”

A day later, more than 900 former Department of Justice attorneys submitted their own letter opposing Bove’s confirmation. The attorneys argued that “Few actions could undermine the rule of law more than a senior executive branch official flouting another branch’s authority. But that is exactly what Mr. Bove allegedly did through his involvement in DOJ’s defiance of court orders.”

On July 17, Democrats walked out of the Senate Judiciary Committee vote, in protest of the refusal by Chairman Chuck Grassley, a Republican from Iowa, to allow further investigation and debate on the nomination. Republicans on the committee then unanimously voted to move the nomination forward for a full Senate vote.

Late in the evening of July 29, and after two more whistleblower complaints about Bove’s conduct had emerged, the U.S. Senate confirmed Bove’s nomination in a 50-49 vote.

As a scholar of the courts, I know that most federal court appointments are not as controversial as Bove’s nomination. But highly contentious nominations do arise from time to time.

Here’s how three controversial nominations turned out – and how Bove’s nomination was different in a crucial way.

A man smiles and looks toward a microphone with people sitting behind him. All of them are dressed formally.
Robert Bork testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee for his confirmation as associate justice of the Supreme Court in September 1987.
Mark Reinstein/Corbis via Getty Images

Robert Bork

Bork is the only federal court nominee whose name became a verb.

“Borking” is “to attack or defeat (a nominee or candidate for public office) unfairly through an organized campaign of harsh public criticism or vilification,” according to Merriam-Webster.

This refers to Republican President Ronald Reagan’s 1987 appointment of Bork to the Supreme Court.

Reagan called Bork “one of the finest judges in America’s history.” Democrats viewed Bork, a federal appeals court judge, as an ideologically extreme conservative, with their opposition based largely on his extensive scholarly work and opinions on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

In opposing the Bork nomination, Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts took the Senate floor and gave a fiery speech: “Robert Bork’s America is a land in which women would be forced into back-alley abortions, blacks would sit at segregated lunch counters, rogue police could break down citizens’ doors in midnight raids, schoolchildren could not be taught about evolution, writers and artists could be censored at the whim of government, and the doors of the federal courts would be shut on the fingers of millions of citizens for whom the judiciary is often the only protector of the individual rights that are the heart of our democracy.”

Ultimately, Bork’s nomination failed by a 58-42 vote in the Senate, with 52 Democrats and six Republicans rejecting the nomination.

Ronnie White

In 1997, Democratic President Bill Clinton nominated White to the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri. White was the first Black judge on the Missouri Supreme Court.

Republican Sen. John Ashcroft, from White’s home state of Missouri, led the fight against the nomination. Ashcroft alleged that White’s confirmation would “push the law in a pro-criminal direction.” Ashcroft based this claim on White’s comparatively liberal record in death penalty cases as a judge on the Missouri Supreme Court.

However, there was limited evidence to support this assertion. This led some to believe that Ashcroft’s attack on the nomination was motivated by stereotypes that African Americans, like White, are soft on crime.

Even Clinton implied that race may be a factor in the attacks on White: “By voting down the first African-American judge to serve on the Missouri Supreme Court, the Republicans have deprived both the judiciary and the people of Missouri of an excellent, fair, and impartial Federal judge.”

White’s nomination was defeated in the Senate by a 54-45 party-line vote. In 2014, White was renominated to the same judgeship by President Barack Obama and confirmed by largely party-line 53-44 vote, garnering the support of a single Republican, Susan Collins of Maine.

A man with brown skin and a black suit places a hand on a leather chair and stands alongside people dressed formally.
Ronnie White, a former justice for the Missouri Supreme Court, testifies during an attorney general confirmation hearing in Washington in January 2001.
Alex Wong/Newsmakers

Miguel Estrada

Republican President George W. Bush nominated Estrada to the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in 2001.

Estrada, who had earned a unanimous “well-qualified” rating from the American Bar Association, faced deep opposition from Senate Democrats, who believed he was a conservative ideologue. They also worried that, if confirmed, he would later be appointed to the Supreme Court.

A dark-haired man in a suit, standing while swearing an oath.
Miguel Estrada, President George Bush’s nominee to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, is sworn in during his hearing before Senate Judiciary on Sept. 26, 2002.
Scott J. Ferrell/Congressional Quarterly/Getty Images

However, unlike Bork – who had an extensive paper trail as an academic and judge – Estrada’s written record was very thin.

Democrats sought to use his confirmation hearing to probe his beliefs. But they didn’t get very far, as Estrada dodged many of the senators’ questions, including ones about Supreme Court cases he disagreed with and judges he admired.

Democrats were particularly troubled by allegations that Estrada, when he was screening candidates for Justice Anthony Kennedy, disqualified applicants for Supreme Court clerkships based on their ideology.

According to one attorney: “Miguel told me his job was to prevent liberal clerks from being hired. He told me he was screening out liberals because a liberal clerk had influenced Justice Kennedy to side with the majority and write a pro-gay-rights decision in a case known as Romer v. Evans, which struck down a Colorado statute that discriminated against gays and lesbians.”

When asked about this at his confirmation hearing, Estrada initially denied it but later backpedaled. Estrada said, “There is a set of circumstances in which I would consider ideology if I think that the person has some extreme view that he would not be willing to set aside in service to Justice Kennedy.”

Unlike the Bork nomination, Democrats didn’t have the numbers to vote Estrada’s nomination down. Instead, they successfully filibustered the nomination, knowing that Republicans couldn’t muster the required 60 votes to end the filibuster. This marked the first time in Senate history that a court of appeals nomination was filibustered. Estrada would never serve as a judge.

Bove stands out

As the examples of Bork, Estrada and White make clear, contentious nominations to the federal courts often involve ideological concerns.

This is also true for Bove, who was opposed in part because of the perception that he is a conservative ideologue.

But the main concerns about Bove were related to a belief that he is a Trump loyalist who shows little respect for the rule of law or the judicial branch.

This makes Bove stand out among contentious federal court nominations.

This story, originally published on July 21, 2025, has been updated to reflect the Senate’s confirmation of Bove.

The Conversation

Paul M. Collins Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Emil Bove confirmed – his appeals court nomination echoed earlier controversies, but with a key difference – https://theconversation.com/emil-bove-confirmed-his-appeals-court-nomination-echoed-earlier-controversies-but-with-a-key-difference-261347