Category: Analysis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michelle Pace, Professor in Global Studies at Roskilde University, Roskilde University

When the British government recently announced its plan to emulate Denmark’s asylum and immigration system, it framed the move as a way to restore fairness and regain control. But for those who know how Denmark’s system actually works, the move raises serious ethical — and practical — questions.

This is not the first time the UK and Denmark have looked to each other for ideas on tough migration policies. In 2022, both considered schemes to send asylum seekers to Rwanda and for claims to be processed there.

In the end, neither country went ahead. Denmark paused its proposals and the UK’s scheme was blocked by the courts and then ditched after a change of government.

Denmark once prided itself on its liberal welfare state and human rights commitments. But it has spent the past decade turning itself into one of Europe’s toughest destinations for refugees.

Indeed, it is the only country in Europe to have revoked refugee protection on a large scale. And the first to reorient its laws away from integration and towards return.

I have spent years studying Denmark’s migration system and interviewing the refugees affected by it. My forthcoming book, Un-welcome to Denmark, traces the laws governing entry, residence and expulsion in Denmark’s Aliens Act, which has been amended more than 100 times over 36 years (1983–2019).

For context, that pace of change is unusually high, making Denmark’s immigration system one of the most frequently revised in Europe. And this has created near constant uncertainty for those living under it.

A tougher system

The turning point for Denmark’s asylum system came in 2015, when a change to the Aliens Act allowed authorities to revoke refugee status if conditions in someone’s home country had improved — even when those improvements were fragile or unpredictable.

Between 2017 and 2018, roughly 900 Somali refugees lost their residence permits. Then in 2019, just as the Social Democrats returned to power under Mette Frederiksen, parliament approved a package of legislation that has widely been described as a “paradigm shift” in Denmark’s asylum policy.

Under this tougher system, Syrian refugees who held temporary protection had their permits reassessed. In 2022 alone, nearly 400 Syrians left Denmark, fearing they would lose their refugee status and sought protection elsewhere in Europe.

Residencies were revoked, but refugees could not be deported, because Denmark had no diplomatic relations with the then Assad government. So people were placed in so called “departure centres” — facilities designed to house people expected to leave the country (and under stricter conditions than standard refugee shelters).

Some of the Syrians I spoke with, who were detained at these centres, described the experience as extremely unpleasant — a non-life — seemingly designed to push them to leave voluntarily.

A life in limbo

Denmark has become a pioneer in restrictive immigration policies. And this has come with serious legal, ethical and moral challenges.

The European Court of Human Rights has, for example, previously found that Denmark violated the right to family life under the European Convention on Human Rights due to a three-year waiting period for refugees with temporary protection.

Last year, the European Court of Justice accused Denmark of racial discrimination for planned mass housing evictions in previously so called “ghetto” neighbourhoods (now referred to as parallel societies, where a high proportion of residents are migrants.

Refugees I’ve spoken with have told me how they often feel that integration is pointless if they might still be deported. Social isolation and limited rights for asylum seekers are the norm. Families face long waiting times for reunification despite few cases and refugees face temporary permits that hinder long-term planning.

The system is clearly designed to discourage settlement through restrictive living conditions and a lack of control over daily life, which creates a huge amount of stress and fear for those living under such rules.

Harsh and destabilising

Denmark’s asylum system shows how far a (supposedly) centre-left government can go in tightening migration policies while maintaining political support. The Social Democrats inherited a strict framework and have continued to apply it, including temporary protection, reassessment of refugee status and the use of departure centres.

For the UK, which is now considering adopting similar policies, the Danish experience offers cautionary lessons. These measures may reduce asylum numbers, but they come at a human and legal cost. Families are left in uncertainty, long-term planning is impossible and life in departure centres can be harsh and destabilising.

Any government looking to copy this approach should look beyond the statistics and consider the real experiences of the people affected. Denmark’s story is a reminder that migration policy is not just about managing numbers — it is also about the lives that are shaped by those policies.

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This article was commissioned by Videnskab.dk as part of a partnership collaboration with The Conversation. You can read the Danish version of this article, here.

Michelle Pace received funding from the Carlsberg Foundation for her forthcoming monograph entitled Un-welcome to Denmark. The Paradigm Shift and Refugee Integration (MUP, December 2025). (Details here: https://www.carlsbergfondet.dk/en/what-we-have-funded/cf21-0519/). She is also an Associate Fellow, Europe Program, at Chatham House.

– ref. Why the UK should think twice before copying Denmark’s asylum policies – https://theconversation.com/why-the-uk-should-think-twice-before-copying-denmarks-asylum-policies-269660

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephanie Horsted, PhD Candidate, Pain management in the transgender community, Department of Research and Graduate Studies, Health Sciences University

Transgender people can encounter significant obstacles and barriers within healthcare systems that may hinder access to care or affect the quality of treatment they receive. These challenges vary widely, but together they can create environments that feel less supportive than they should be.

A 2025 report found that, in the UK, 52% of transgender people surveyed had a negative healthcare experience. The effect of such experiences, which can be due to prejudice, discrimination or simply a lack of knowledge among healthcare staff, can be profound. It forces many to live with health problems without seeking medical attention.

One of the most common problems encountered by transgender people in healthcare is misgendering. This occurs when a health professional uses incorrect names or pronouns, for example referring to someone as “he” instead of “she,” or using a former name – known as deadnaming – either through lack of knowledge or an unwillingness to acknowledge a patient’s gender identity.

For many transgender people, being misgendered is a denial of who they are, even if it’s not intended. Studies show that frequent misgendering can lead transgender and non-binary people to feel invisible, invalidated and emotionally distressed. This kind of miscommunication can leave patients feeling disrespected or dismissed, reinforcing existing inequalities in care.

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Read more:
How inclusive language can help to reduce birth trauma

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The impact of misgendering trans people goes far beyond emotional discomfort. According to US charity the Trevor Project’s 2024 national survey on LGBTQ+ youth mental health, transgender and nonbinary young people whose pronouns were respected all or most of the time had around half the suicide attempt rate of those whose pronouns were rarely or never respected.

This doesn’t mean pronoun use alone prevents suicide, but that it signals something larger: affirmation, safety and belonging. Misgendering, by contrast, reinforces rejection and invisibility. The psychological strain of being misgendered, combined with the stress of untreated health issues, can make healthcare settings feel unsafe and discourage people from seeking support.

Research indicates that these experiences contribute to deeper mistrust of healthcare professionals and reduce engagement with medical services. Over time, that mistrust can make people reluctant to return for follow-up care, even when they are unwell. Evidence shows that transgender people who delay seeking healthcare because of anticipated discrimination experience poorer physical and mental health outcomes.

Exclusion from routine screening

Another widespread issue is the lack of inclusion in standard health screenings. Many medical protocols, from cervical smear tests to prostate exams, have been historically designed with cisgender patients in mind.

“Cisgender” refers to people whose gender identity matches the sex they were assigned at birth. This traditional focus has created serious gaps in preventive care for transgender people, particularly those who have transitioned or whose bodies do not align neatly with conventional gender categories.

Research shows that transgender people are significantly less likely to receive recommended cancer screenings than cisgender patients. A large US primary care study found that transgender people were screened at far lower rates for cervical (56% v 72%), breast (33% v 65%) and colorectal cancer (55% v 70%) than cisgender people.

Similarly, a systematic review reported that trans men were less likely to attend cervical and breast screening, while trans women had lower rates of prostate cancer screening than cisgender men.

These disparities are not simply a matter of personal choice. Administrative systems in many countries still match screening invitations to gender markers rather than anatomy. As a result, some patients are automatically called for irrelevant tests while others are excluded from ones they need.

This can delay early detection and leave treatable conditions undiagnosed. Experts note that such oversights reflect a healthcare model that still operates around a rigid gender binary rather than one based on a person’s medical need and anatomy.

Even when screenings are offered, they can be uncomfortable or traumatic. Procedures such as pelvic or breast exams are often not designed with transgender bodies or experiences in mind.

For example, trans men may still have internal reproductive organs that are associated with the female anatomy, but experience heightened distress or gender dysphoria, a feeling of discomfort or anxiety caused by a mismatch between their gender identity and physical anatomy, during pelvic exams. Research shows that this can make routine care feel invasive or emotionally painful.

Trans women may find breast or prostate examinations distressing or triggering (they can provoke anxiety, fear or memories of past discrimination) if staff are unfamiliar with gender-affirming care, which emphasises respectful communication, consent and understanding of diverse anatomies. In settings where these practices are lacking, patients may fear being judged, misgendered or asked insensitive questions.

Equipment, clinic environments and communication styles are often based on cisgender assumptions, which presume that all patients’ bodies and identities align with the sex they were assigned at birth.

This can heighten anxiety and discomfort, making medical visits feel unsafe. Consequently, many transgender people postpone preventive screenings, reinforcing a cycle in which missed appointments lead to later diagnoses and poorer health outcomes.

“Trans broken arm syndrome”

A particularly common phenomenon in transgender healthcare is known as “trans broken arm syndrome”. The term describes how healthcare professionals sometimes overlook or minimise a transgender person’s immediate medical needs by focusing disproportionately on their gender identity or transition history, even when unrelated to the presenting issue.

For instance, a transgender person might attend an emergency department with a broken arm but find that clinicians focus on hormone therapy or surgical history rather than the injury, leading to misdiagnosis, delays in treatment or inappropriate care.

The cost of fear

The combined impact of misgendering, exclusion from essential screenings and “trans broken arm syndrome” often drives transgender people to avoid healthcare altogether. Many delay seeking medical help because they expect to be disrespected or mistreated.

The fear and anticipation of stigma can become so overwhelming that it outweighs the need for care, leading to worsening physical and mental health over time.

That so many transgender people continue to endure preventable suffering because they fear discrimination or practices that make them feel uncomfortable because of a lack of training reveals a persistent problem within healthcare systems. These disparities are not only the result of individual prejudice but also of structural inequities in medical education, screening protocols and institutional design.

Without a cultural shift towards inclusion and respect, transgender people will continue to face inequities in access to healthcare, with potentially serious consequences for their physical and mental wellbeing.

Stephanie Horsted does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. From misgendering to missed diagnoses: the barriers that can keep trans people from safe healthcare – https://theconversation.com/from-misgendering-to-missed-diagnoses-the-barriers-that-can-keep-trans-people-from-safe-healthcare-269427

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Sutton, Honorary Professor in the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh

For decades, Ukraine was known as the breadbasket of the world. Before the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, it ranked among the top global producers and exporters of sunflower oil, maize and wheat. These helped feed more than 400 million people worldwide.

But beyond the news about grain blockades lies a deeper, slower-moving crisis: the depletion of the very nutrients that make Ukraine’s fertile black soil so productive.

While the ongoing war has focused global attention on Ukraine’s food supply chains, far less is known about the sustainability of the agricultural systems that underpin them.

Ukraine’s soil may no longer be able to sustain the country’s role as one of the major food producers without urgent action. And this could have consequences that stretch far beyond its borders.

In our research, we have examined nutrient management in Ukrainian agriculture over the past 40 years and found a dramatic reversal of nutrient levels.

During the Soviet era, Ukraine’s farmland was excessively fertilised. Nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium were applied at levels far beyond what crops could absorb. This led to pollution of the air and water.

But since independence in 1991, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction. Fertiliser use, especially phosphorus and potassium, plummeted as imports fell, livestock numbers declined (reducing manure availability) and supply chains collapsed.

By 2021, just before the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian soil was already showing signs of strain. Farmers were adding much less phosphorus and potassium than the crops were taking up, around 40–50% less phosphorus and 25% less potassium, and the soil’s organic matter had dropped by almost 9% since independence.

In many regions, farmers applied too much nitrogen, but often too little phosphorus and potassium to maintain long-term fertility. Moreover, although livestock numbers have declined significantly over the past decades, our analysis shows that about 90% of the manure still produced is wasted. This is equivalent to roughly US$2.2 billion (£1.6 billion) in fertiliser value each year.

These nutrient imbalances are not just a national issue. They threaten Ukraine’s long-term agricultural productivity and, by extension, the global food supply that depends on it.

The war has sharply intensified the problem. Russia’s invasion has disrupted fertiliser supply chains and damaged storage facilities. Fertiliser prices have soared. Many farmers deliberately applied less fertiliser in 2022-2023 to reduce financial risks, knowing that their harvests could be destroyed, stolen or left unsold due to blocked export routes.

Our new research shows alarming trends across the country. In 2023, harvested crops took up to 30% more nitrogen, 80% more phosphorus and 70% more potassium from the soil than they received through fertilisation, soil microbes and from the air (including what comes down in rain and what settles onto the ground from the air).

If these trends continue, Ukraine’s famously fertile soil could face lasting degradation, threatening the country’s capacity to recover and supply global food markets once peace returns.

Rebuilding soil fertility

Some solutions exist and many are feasible even during wartime. Our research team has developed a plan for Ukrainian farmers that could quickly make a difference. These measures could substantially improve nutrient use efficiency and reduce wasted nutrients, keeping farms productive and profitable, while reducing soil degradation and environmental pollution.

These proposed solutions include:

1. Precision fertilisation – applying fertilisers at the right time, place and amount to match crop needs efficiently

2. Enhanced manure use – setting up local systems to collect surplus manure and redistribute it to other farms, reducing dependence on (imported) synthetic fertilisers

3. Improved fertiliser use – applying enhanced-efficiency fertilisers that release nutrients slowly, reducing losses to air and water

4. Planting legumes (such as peas or soybeans) – including these in crop rotations, improves soil health while adding nitrogen naturally

Some of these actions require investment, such as better facilities for storage, treatment and better application of manure to fields, but many can be rolled out, at least partially, without too much extra funding.

Ukraine’s recovery fund, backed by the World Bank to help Ukraine after the war ends, includes support for agriculture, and this could play a key role here.

Why it matters beyond Ukraine

Ukraine’s nutrient crisis is a warning for the world. Intensive, unbalanced farming, whether through overuse, under use or misuse of fertilisers, is unsustainable. Nutrient mismanagement contributes to both food insecurity and environmental pollution.

Our research is part of the forthcoming International Nitrogen Assessment, which highlights the need for effective global nitrogen management and showcases practical options to maximise the multiple benefits of better nitrogen use – improved food security, climate resilience, and water and air quality.

In the rush to ensure cheap food and stable exports, we must not overlook the foundations of long-term agricultural productivity: healthy, fertile soils.

Supporting Ukraine’s farmers offers a chance not only to rebuild a nation but also to change global agriculture to help create a more resilient, sustainable future.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

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Prof. Mark Sutton works for the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, based at its Edinburgh Research Station. He is an honorary professor at the University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences. He receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) through its Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF), the UK Department for Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). He is Director of the International Nitrogen Management System (INMS) funded by GEF/UNEP, and of the GCRF South Asian Nitrogen Hub. He is co-chair of the UNECE Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen (TFRN) and of the Global Partnership on Nutrient Management (GPNM) which is convened by UNEP.

Sergiy Medinets receives funding from UKRI, Defra, DAERA, British Academy, UNEP, GEF, UNDP and EU

– ref. Ukraine’s farms once fed billions but now its soil is starving – https://theconversation.com/ukraines-farms-once-fed-billions-but-now-its-soil-is-starving-269147

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

This newsletter was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.

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Nightly, for months now, Ukraine’s cities have been pounded by relentless aerial attacks. In addition to its grinding and attritional ground offensives in the east and south of the country, since early summer, the Russian military has greatly expanded its air offensive against centres of population, looking to collapse morale and undermine the Ukrainian people’s will to fight on.

And as winter approaches, so those aerial bombardments have targeted Ukraine’s power infrastructure.

Repeatedly in recent weeks, whole cities have been plunged into cold darkness as power plants, transmission lines and regional and local substations are damaged or destroyed. Rolling power outages are now common, reportedly lasting up to 14 hours in some cases.

So the latest political scandal to hit the government of Volodymyr Zelensky could hardly have come at a worse time for his country. And to make matters worse, it revolves around Ukraine’s energy industry.

Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies this week released the findings of Operation Midas, an 18-month probe into Energoatom, the state-owned operator of all of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, investigating allegations of bribes and kickbacks said to amount to US$100 million (£76 million). Raids were carried out around the country and seven people have been arrested.

What makes this so dangerous for Zelensky is that one of the people named in the probe is a former business partner of his. Businessman Timur Mindich was the co-owner, with Zelensky, of Kvartal 95 Studio – the platform on which the Ukrainian president made his name as a comedian before he entered politics (ironically, under the circumstances, as an anti-corruption candidate).

Mindich is reported to have left the country, but he is said to have connections to several senior government ministers. The scandal risks tainting the already embattled Zelensky government by association.

What’s worse, as Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko explain, is that only a few months before this scandal exploded, Zelensky tried to bring Ukraine’s independent anti-corruption agencies under the direct control of his government. He backed down in the face of huge demonstrations, but this latest corruption scandal is likely to weaken him further.

He has already lost his justice minister, German Galushchenko, and energy minister, Svitlana Hrynchuk. And, as Wolff and Malyarenko point out, the last thing Zelensky needs while his European allies debate how to raise desperately needed funds to keep fighting is a whiff of corruption surrounding his administration.

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Read more:
Ukraine: energy corruption scandal threatens to derail Zelensky’s government and undermine its war effort

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Having spent the day debating how to raise the huge amounts of money Ukraine will need in 2026, it appears that the EU is closing in on a preferred option. The European Commission considered two main options. One plan is for either the EU to borrow €140 billion (£124 billion) using its long-term budget as collateral. Another is to use the frozen Russian assets as collateral for a loan to Ukraine, to be repaid after the war if Russia pays reparations to Kyiv.

An idea floated by Norwegian economists to use Norway’s €1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund to guarantee the loan was quickly scotched by the country’s finance minister, former Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, who said that while Norway was happy to contribute, it could not be responsible for the entire amount.

The next move will be to assuage the fears of Belgium, which is where the assets are held by securities depository Euroclear, that a successful legal challenge by Russia could leave it liable for repayment. The Kremlin has already made noises to this effect.

Veronika Hinman, the deputy director of the University of Portsmouth’s military education team, believes that while the massive injection of funds will certainly enable Ukraine to continue to fight, it’s unlikely to be decisive. “It cannot deliver the manpower, weapons or morale,” she writes.

Hinman describes the fairly dire situation on the battlefield, where Russia is slowly but surely beating back the defenders outside key cities such as Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. The invaders continue to press for a breakthrough in these strategically important towns, which would allow them to make a push into central Ukraine.

Russia has been unsuccessfully trying to capture both Pokrovsk and Huliaipole for many months (its troops briefly entered Huliaipole on March 5 2022, only a couple of weeks after the invasion started, and were pushed back). But the fight appears to be increasingly lopsided, writes Hinman. Russia may have lost more than a million troops – killed or injured – but it has huge reserves and its retooled war economy appears to be bearing up reasonably well, despite US sanctions.

So the need for more money from the EU grows ever more critical, Hinman writes. But she worries that “in the end, this latest wave of aid may buy Ukraine time – but it’s unlikely to deliver victory”.

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Read more:
Kyiv’s European allies debate ways of keeping the cash flowing to Ukraine but the picture on the battlefield is grim

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Trump: lawfare and diplomacy

In the US, meanwhile, blows were struck in a different kind of war as a Florida prosecutor issued subpoenas to a range of officials that the US president believes are part of the “deep-state” opposition to his presidency.

When you look at the targets of these subpoenas, which include former CIA director John Brennan, former FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok, former FBI attorney Lisa Page and former director of national intelligence James Clapper, the thinking becomes clear. All of them were involved in the federal investigation into alleged links between Russian intelligence and Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

As we know, under instruction from Trump, the Justice Department has already gone after several of the president’s enemies, including former FBI director James Comey, former national security adviser John Bolton and New York attorney general Letitia James.

It’s all part of what has become known as the “grand conspiracy”, writes Robert Dover, an expert in intelligence from the University of Hull. And it appears as if the Trump administration is gearing up for some serious lawfare.

As Dover observes, whether or not these investigations actually end up with anyone facing court is, while not immaterial, not the whole point of the exercise. In the US, these investigations can take a huge toll on their targets: emotionally, financially and health-wise.

Dover points to a new unit in the Department of Justice, the “weaponization working group”, whose director, Ed Martin, said his job was to expose and discredit people he believes to working against the president: “If they can be charged, we’ll charge them. But if they can’t be charged, we will name them.” This, writes Dover, is a complete inversion of the traditional approach of: “charge crimes, not people”.

It feels like another step on the road to authoritarian government, he observes.

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Read more:
First subpoenas issued as Donald Trump’s ‘grand conspiracy’ theory begins to take shape

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The incumbent of the Oval Office, meanwhile, received the (relatively) new leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, this week. He’s the first Syrian leader ever to visit the White House and the visit represents a considerable rise to power and respectability for someone who, until a year ago, was leading an insurgent group against Syria’s Assad regime. His Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was, until July, proscribed by the US as a terrorist organisation.

But, as William Plowright, a Syria expert from Durham University, points out, as far back as 2015, former CIA director David Petraeus suggested that the US should consider working with the organisation which later became al-Sharaa’s group, Jabhat al-Nusra, against Islamic State.

As Plowright observes, there are upsides for both Trump and al-Sharaa in striking up a working relationship, not least of which is that it would deprive Iran of its closest ally in the region.

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Read more:
How former jihadist Ahmed al-Sharaa ended up being welcomed to the White House

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– ref. Ukraine: battered by bombing and scarred by corruption – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-battered-by-bombing-and-scarred-by-corruption-269755

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Fankhauser, Professor of Climate Economics and Policy, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

World leaders gather for the UN climate summit (Cop30) in Belém, Brazil, amid concerns about the slow progress in cutting global carbon emissions. Ten years into the historic Paris climate agreement, we are off track to meet its core objective, to keep global warming well below 2°C, relative to pre-industrial levels.

Yet there are glimmers of hope, and none more important than the astounding progress on renewable energy. Renewables are now so cheap that the clean energy transition is no longer an economic burden, it is a momentous opportunity.

Climate change campaigners tend to see renewables as an environmental imperative, an effective way of cutting emissions. They are that, of course. But they are also a powerful engine of investment, jobs and growth. They are reshaping the global economy. In my team’s new report, we lay out the evidence.

The first economic dividend of renewables is inclusion. Access to affordable energy remains a critical sustainable development goal, which shapes everything from education to health to women’s empowerment. Distributed renewables – from solar home systems to mini-grids – are our best chance yet of bringing affordable energy to all.

Across Africa, Asia and Latin America, renewable energy entrepreneurs are doing what national grids have struggled to do: reaching remote villages and replacing polluting diesel generators with clean, reliable power.

Because of its modularity, renewable electricity can be built out fast, expanded flexibly and maintained locally. Renewable energy firms are combining these technical advantages with new business models that make renewables more accessible (for example, through pay-as-you-go models) and keep benefits in the local community (for example, by offering energy services like cold storage, phone charging and water pumping, as well as electricity).

Investment, jobs and growth

If inclusion is the first dividend, investment is the second. Every dollar invested in renewables delivers more economic bang than a dollar spent on fossil fuels. The International Monetary Fund estimates that clean energy investments generate about 1.5 times their cost in economic activity, while fossil fuels yield less than one-for-one. Renewables do not just pay back; they pay forward through spending on supply chains and local wages.

The numbers are staggering. Between 2017 and 2022, climate finance flows into the 100 largest developing countries (excluding China) boosted their GDP by a combined US$1.2 trillion (£0.9 trillion) – the equivalent of 2-5% of GDP for most nations. In Brazil, the host of Cop30, renewable investments raised GDP by US$128 billion over those six years, according to our report.

Climate finance flows are still insufficient. To increase them, we need more concessional funding, more risk guarantees and more partnerships between governments, investors and local communities.

In the Dominican Republic, a blend of policy reform, clear incentives and blended finance has helped the country mobilise over US$6.5 billion in clean energy investment and double its renewables capacity in just three years.

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Read more:
Green jobs are booming, but too few employees have sustainability skills to fill them – here are 4 ways to close the gap

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The energy transition is often painted as a jobs killer, but the evidence says otherwise. Intergovernmental organisations project that there will be 43 million clean energy jobs by 2050, far outstripping those lost in fossil fuels.

For our report, we took a closer look at the jobs market in South Africa. For 12 months we collected data from job adverts and found a striking fact: clean energy jobs pay 16% more on average than all other advertised roles. For the most part the higher wages reflect the fact that clean energy jobs are high-skilled jobs, which require experience, training and problem-solving skills.

The high skills requirements are a challenge as well as a boon. Taking full advantage of the clean jobs revolution will require proactive skills development, both in the classroom and on the job. But for the young labour forces of many developing countries, the message is clear: renewables are not just a climate strategy, they are a job opportunity.

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Read more:
What are green jobs and how can I get one? 5 questions answered about clean energy careers

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Perhaps the most underappreciated economic benefit of renewables concerns productivity. Cheap, efficient energy is the lifeblood of industrial growth. Renewable energy is now much cheaper than fossil fuels, particularly when factoring in what is lost when turning energy (say, car fuel) into usable services (propulsion).

We calculated that with a rapid conversion to renewables, energy-sector productivity could double by 2050, compared to both current levels and a fossil fuel future. Since energy is such a ubiquitous input to all other economic activities, this has significant economy-wide benefits. For some developing countries, the GDP boost could be as high as 9-12% – simply from having more efficient energy services.

These productivity gains are not evenly distributed. For once it could be developing countries that benefit most. Industrialised countries grew rich on the back of cheap and abundant energy. In a low-carbon economy, it will be sun-rich developing countries that have the cheapest, most abundant sources of energy. This critical shift in comparative advantage could finally help to narrow the global prosperity gap.

At Cop30, leaders are debating climate targets, finance mechanisms and transition timelines. But they should also recognise this deeper reality: renewables are not a drag on growth but its new engine. In a world anxious about growth and prosperity, the clean energy transition is an economic strategy as much as an environmental one.

The challenge, as our report reminds us, is to share these gains equitably. Without fair benefit-sharing the transition risks repeating the inequities of the fossil fuel era. But get it right, and renewables can power not just cleaner economies, but fairer ones.

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Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

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This work was supported by grants from SSE plc and the UK Foreign and Development Office under the Climate Compatible Growth programme. .

– ref. Renewable energy is reshaping the global economy – new report – https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-is-reshaping-the-global-economy-new-report-268676

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Carly Ameen, Lecturer in Bioarchaeology, University of Exeter

Domestic dogs are among the most diverse mammals on the planet. From the tiny chihuahua to the towering great dane, the flat-faced pug to the long-muzzled borzoi, the sheer range of canine shapes and sizes is staggering.

We often attribute this diversity to a relatively recent phenomenon: the Victorian kennel clubs that first emerged around 200 years ago. These clubs are usually credited with formalising the selective breeding that created the hundreds of modern breeds we recognise today.

But our new research, published in Science, shows that this is only the latest chapter in a much older story. Dogs were already remarkably diverse in their skull size and shape more than 10,000 years ago, long before kennel clubs and pedigrees.

This discovery challenges the idea that directed breeding alone created the physical variety we see in dogs today. Instead, our research found that early dogs had already evolved an extraordinary range of forms soon after domestication – a diversity that has been continually shaped by thousands of years of shared history with humans.

Looking for the first dogs

For decades, archaeologists and geneticists have been trying to answer a deceptively simple question: when did wolves become dogs?

The history of human interaction with wolves is a long one, stretching into the last ice age, perhaps even as far back as 30,000 years ago. But the exact timing of dog domestication is uncertain. What makes dogs particularly special is that they were the first species humans domesticated – well before any plant or livestock. Yet despite decades of research, the first dogs continue to elude us.

Part of the challenge is the similarity between wolves and dogs. Even today, some modern dog breeds closely resemble wolves. This makes tracking their domestication in the archaeological record particularly difficult. By using a technique called geometric morphometrics – a way to map and measure shape variation in three dimensions – we could track subtle changes in shape over time from 3D models of the archaeological skulls.

We analysed 643 skulls of ancient and modern dogs and wolves, spanning 50,000 years from sites mainly across the northern hemisphere to track the emergence and diversification of domestic dogs across time and space.

What we found was striking: the earliest skulls with clearly domestic skull shapes in our dataset date to around 11,000 years ago, from the Mesolithic site of Veretye in Russia.

By this point, dogs had not only diverged in terms of skull shape from wolves but had begun to diversify among themselves. These early dogs were not all alike, but instead exhibited skulls of different sizes and shapes, probably reflecting the influence of local environments, population histories and human preferences.

In fact, some early dogs exhibit skull forms not found in any modern breeds, hinting at lineages and morphologies that may have since vanished. While we don’t see some of the most extreme forms of skull shape that we see today (such as pugs or bull terriers), the variation we see by the Mesolithic is already half the total amount of variation we see in modern breeds.

This echoes genetic studies that reveal deep splits among early dog populations. By the Neolithic (around 8,000–5,000 years ago), dogs had already formed regionally distinct lineages across Europe, the Near East and Asia. Some of these lineages survive in modern breeds, while others appear to have gone extinct, possibly replaced or diluted through interbreeding and human movements.

Uneven domestication

Our findings complement a growing body of genetic and archaeological evidence suggesting that the domestication of dogs was a protracted and regionally varied process. Ancient DNA research has shown that major dog lineages were already distinct by 11,000 years ago, implying that the domestication process began much earlier.

The exact timing is still debated, with some research pointing to close human-canid relationship from over 30,000 years ago. However, our study found no domesticated dogs among the 17 Late Pleistocene (126,000 to 11,700 years ago) skulls we examined, suggesting it may not reach that far back. Of course, the earliest dogs had to closely resemble wolves, and it’s possible that early dogs retained wolf-like skulls for generations, but for how long remains unknown.

There is still much we don’t know. To deepen our understanding, we need more specimens from the critical window between 25,000 and 11,000 years ago, particularly in underrepresented regions like central and south-west Asia. What this work has revealed, or perhaps reinforced, is the much older story of evolution between humans and dogs that began soon after domestication itself.

Ultimately, dogs are a mirror of human history. Their story is intertwined with ours, shaped by shared migrations, changing environments and evolving societies. As the first domesticated species – and still our most enduring companion – dogs offer a unique window into how humans have shaped the natural world and how the natural world has shaped us in return.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. It’s a myth that the Victorians created modern dog breeds – we’ve uncovered their prehistoric roots – https://theconversation.com/its-a-myth-that-the-victorians-created-modern-dog-breeds-weve-uncovered-their-prehistoric-roots-269534