Can bigger-is-better ‘scaling laws’ keep AI improving forever? History says we can’t be too sure

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Nathan Garland, Lecturer in Applied Mathematics and Physics, Griffith University

Milad Fakurian / Unsplash

OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman – perhaps the most prominent face of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom that accelerated with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 – loves scaling laws.

These widely admired rules of thumb linking the size of an AI model with its capabilities inform much of the headlong rush among the AI industry to buy up powerful computer chips, build unimaginably large data centres, and re-open shuttered nuclear plants.

As Altman argued in a blog post earlier this year, the thinking is that the “intelligence” of an AI model “roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it” – meaning you can steadily produce better performance by exponentially increasing the scale of data and computing power involved.

First observed in 2020 and further refined in 2022, the scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) come from drawing lines on charts of experimental data. For engineers, they give a simple formula that tells you how big to build the next model and what performance increase to expect.

Will the scaling laws keep on scaling as AI models get bigger and bigger? AI companies are betting hundreds of billions of dollars that they will – but history suggests it is not always so simple.

Scaling laws aren’t just for AI

Scaling laws can be wonderful. Modern aerodynamics is built on them, for example.

Using an elegant piece of mathematics called the Buckingham π theorem, engineers discovered how to compare small models in wind tunnels or test basins with full-scale planes and ships by making sure some key numbers matched up.

Those scaling ideas inform the design of almost everything that flies or floats, as well as industrial fans and pumps.

Another famous scaling idea underpinned the boom decades of the silicon chip revolution. Moore’s law – the idea that the number of the tiny switches called transistors on a microchip would double every two years or so – helped designers create the small, powerful computing technology we have today.

But there’s a catch: not all “scaling laws” are laws of nature. Some are purely mathematical and can hold indefinitely. Others are just lines fitted to data that work beautifully until you stray too far from the circumstances where they were measured or designed.

When scaling laws break down

History is littered with painful reminders of scaling laws that broke. A classic example is the collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in 1940.

The bridge was designed by scaling up what had worked for smaller bridges to something longer and slimmer. Engineers assumed the same scaling arguments would hold: if a certain ratio of stiffness to bridge length worked before, it should work again.

Instead, moderate winds set off an unexpected instability called aeroelastic flutter. The bridge deck tore itself apart, collapsing just four months after opening.

Likewise, even the “laws” of microchip manufacturing had an expiry date. For decades, Moore’s law (transistor counts doubling every couple of years) and Dennard scaling (a larger number of smaller transistors running faster while using the same amount of power) were astonishingly reliable guides for chip design and industry roadmaps.

As transistors became small enough to be measured in nanometres, however, those neat scaling rules began to collide with hard physical limits.

When transistor gates shrank to just a few atoms thick, they started leaking current and behaving unpredictably. The operating voltages could also no longer be reduced with being lost in background noise.

Eventually, shrinking was no longer the way forward. Chips have still grown more powerful, but now through new designs rather than just scaling down.

Laws of nature or rules of thumb?

The language-model scaling curves that Altman celebrates are real, and so far they’ve been extraordinarily useful.

They told researchers that models would keep getting better if you fed them enough data and computing power. They also showed earlier systems were not fundamentally limited – they just hadn’t had enough resources thrown at them.

But these are undoubtedly curves that have been fit to data. They are less like the derived mathematical scaling laws used in aerodynamics and more like the useful rules of thumb used in microchip design – and that means they likely won’t work forever.

The language model scaling rules don’t necessarily encode real-world problems such as limits to the availability of high-quality data for training, or the difficulty of getting AI to deal with novel tasks – let alone safety constraints or the economic difficulties of building data centres and power grids. There is no law of nature or theorem guaranteeing that “intelligence scales” forever.

Investing in the curves

So far, the scaling curves for AI look pretty smooth – but the financial curves are a different story.

Deutsche Bank recently warned of an AI “funding gap” based on Bain Capital estimates of a US$800 billion mismatch between projected AI revenues and the investment in chips, data centres and power that would be needed to keep current growth going.

JP Morgan, for their part, has estimated that the broader AI sector might need around US$650 billion in annual revenue just to earn a modest 10% return on the planned build-out of AI infrastructure.

We’re still finding out which kind of law governs frontier LLMs. The realities may keep playing along with the current scaling rules; or new bottlenecks – data, energy, users’ willingness to pay – may bend the curve.

Altman’s bet is that the LLM scaling laws will continue. If that’s so, it may be worth building enormous amounts of computing power because the gains are predictable. On the other hand, the banks’ growing unease is a reminder that some scaling stories can turn out to be Tacoma Narrows: beautiful curves in one context, hiding a nasty surprise in the next.

The Conversation

Nathan Garland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Can bigger-is-better ‘scaling laws’ keep AI improving forever? History says we can’t be too sure – https://theconversation.com/can-bigger-is-better-scaling-laws-keep-ai-improving-forever-history-says-we-cant-be-too-sure-270448

How the Trump administration tried to sell Ukraine a diplomatic debacle

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matthew Sussex, Associate Professor (Adj), Griffith Asia Institute; and Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

A flurry of recent diplomatic activity has seen two competing peace plans for Ukraine emerge.

The first, widely touted as a US plan, was apparently hashed out between Kremlin insider Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s Russia point-man.

The second, hurriedly drafted by the United Kingdom, France and Germany, is based on the 28 points in the US plan, but with key modifications and deletions.

Following the release of the US plan, Trump accused Ukraine of showing “zero gratitude” for US assistance in the war effort, and demanded Kyiv accept the terms by Thanksgiving in the United States – November 27 – or face being cut off from US intelligence sharing and military aid.

Unlike the US plan, the European counter-proposal places the blame for the war squarely at Russia’s feet. It proposes freezing Russian assets until reparations are made by Moscow. It also seeks to freeze the conflict in place, leaving the question of which party retains which part of Ukraine contingent on subsequent negotiations.

Speaking about the peace proposals, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made it clear the European Union was committed to several key positions:

  • that Ukraine’s borders cannot be altered by force
  • there cannot be limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces that would leave it vulnerable, and
  • the EU needed to have a seat at the table in any agreement.

Comparing the two plans, it is clear Russia and Europe remain as far apart as ever on Ukraine’s future. That much is unsurprising.

What should be more shocking to Western observers is just how much the US plan echoed Russian demands that have remained largely unaltered since President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Lacking logic and specifics

Put simply, the US plan would have had as much credibility if it had been written in crayon.

For starters, it has wording that appears to make more sense in Russian than English (or perhaps AI-translated English).

And it seems more focused on bringing about a new era of friendly Russia-US economic cooperation than a serious attempt to resolve Europe’s biggest land war since the Second World War.

Typical of Trumpian robber-baron foreign policy, the document foresaw large cash grabs for the US, amounting to little more than attempts at extortion.

In return, Ukraine was offered a murky NATO-style security guarantee that could be reneged upon under flimsy pretexts.

The plan also demanded:

  • large territorial concessions from Kyiv
  • a limited army
  • a pledge enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution that it would never to join NATO, and
  • a promise to hold elections in 100 days.

And while it expected Ukraine to strategically emasculate itself, the document made only vague suggestions about what Russia is “expected” to do, with no means of enforcement.

No multinational force was put forward to monitor the peace. And Ukraine was required to give up key defensive positions by ceding the territory it still controls in the Donbas region to Russia. That would leave the centre of the country defenceless against future Russian attacks.

Accepting those terms, as originally written, would be politically suicidal for Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky. This was obvious in his sombre message that the plan forced Ukraine to choose between its dignity and continued US support.

A point-by-point breakdown

A closer look at just a selection of its key points illustrates just how bizarre the plan is.

  • Point 4 calls for “dialogue” between Russia and NATO, mediated by the US. That’s odd, since the US is a member of NATO.

  • Point 7 requires NATO to include a provision in its statutes that Ukraine will not be admitted. But the main purpose of NATO is that membership is open to all.

  • Point 9 says “European fighter jets” will be stationed in Poland, but doesn’t mention the American F-35s currently there.

  • Point 10 states that if Ukraine launches a missile “without cause” at St Petersburg or Moscow (strangely implying it’s fine to hit Smolensk or Voronezh, for instance) – then Kyiv loses its US security guarantee.

  • Point 13 says Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8 (the group now known as the G7 after Russia was expelled in 2014). But it says nothing about whether the other six members would agree to that.

  • Point 16 requires Russia to enshrine in law a policy of non-aggression towards Ukraine. However, it had already done so several times in the past, yet still invaded Ukraine in 2022.

  • Point 22 foresees a demilitarised zone in parts of Donetsk that Russian troops will not be able to enter. How to enforce that is left unspecified.

  • Point 26 gives everyone involved in the conflict full amnesty for their actions, including numerous alleged war criminals.

  • Point 27 establishes a “Peace Council” that would be overseen by Trump, similar to the “Board of Peace” envisioned in the Gaza peace plan, also headed by Trump. This gives him the ability to determine whether the agreement is being violated (and, crucially, by whom).

Where to next?

Ukrainians have been sold a diplomatic lemon before. In 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum, in which Kyiv agreed to give up the nuclear weapons it still held from the Soviet era, in return for commitments by Russia and the US that its sovereignty and borders would be respected.

Just as the current US plan has been rebuffed by Kyiv, there is no hope of the European alternative being endorsed by the Putin regime. Indeed, it has already been rejected by one of Putin’s senior advisers.

Where does this leave the peace process? US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has already walked back the US plan from a concrete set of demands to a “living, breathing document”, and hinted at great progress in negotiations with Ukraine.

European and Ukrainian stakeholders have also made approving noises, knowing that if the White House loses interest, securing peace will be much harder.

Yet it’s below the surface that the real soul-searching will be happening, in Ukraine, as well as the broader West. Once again, the Trump administration has proven it is more interested in long-term deals with autocrats than achieving just and lasting resolutions to security crises.

That alone should give US allies pause, and not just in Europe. For those nations, it’s one thing to doubt Putin’s motives. But it’s another thing entirely to now have to doubt America’s as well.

The Conversation

Matthew Sussex has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Atlantic Council, the Fulbright Foundation, the Carnegie Foundation, the Lowy Institute and various Australian government departments and agencies.

ref. How the Trump administration tried to sell Ukraine a diplomatic debacle – https://theconversation.com/how-the-trump-administration-tried-to-sell-ukraine-a-diplomatic-debacle-270561

Peace in Ukraine? Believe it when you see it, especially if Russian demands are prioritized

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Oleksa Drachewych, Assistant Professor in History, Western University

The United States recently — and suddenly — announced a 28-point peace plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, seemingly jointly written with Russian delegates, and presented it to Ukraine.

The leaked contents of the peace plan caused concerns for Ukrainian representatives, European leaders and some American politicians.

Yet it has nonetheless led to “meaningful progress”, according to the White House, on a revised peace proposal drafted by Ukrainian and American delegates in Geneva. Ukraine has reportedly agreed to the deal, with minor tweaks, while Russia says it’s premature to say a resolution is close, even as Russian representatives met with U.S. delegates in Abu Dhabi to discuss the revised plan.

What was in the first plan?

The leaked initial 28-point plan was criticized for asserting many Russian demands that date back to the initial peace negotiations of March and April 2022:

It also explicitly gave the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to Russia, and called on the international community to recognize full Russian control of the Donbas and Crimea and control of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on the front lines.

In return, there would be “reliable security guarantees” envisioned by U.S. President Donald Trump: a NATO-style “Article 5” for Ukraine. This would mean if Ukraine was purposefully attacked by Russia in the future, the U.S. and other parties involved would come to Ukraine’s defence through sanctions, diplomatic pressure and military support, if necessary.

In many of the economic and security arrangements that could emerge from the agreement, Russia and the United States would manage them together under the terms of the 28-point plan.

The original plan also offered amnesty to all parties for any crimes and atrocities committed during the war, meaning Russia would not be brought to justice for war crimes. It also called for Russia’s return to European and global affairs, ending its political isolation with the West by reforming the G8. In short, the agreement would essentially act as if the war in Ukraine never happened.




Read more:
Why justice for Ukraine must be at the forefront of peace negotiations


Was this a joint U.S.-Russia plan?

The origins of the peace plan have been widely debated. The stilted language in the English version has led some to speculate it was translated from Russian).

American senators said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, when briefing them, called the deal a “Russian wish list.” The draft reportedly came as a result of meetings held in Florida between Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, a noted Putin supporter.

Rubio has insisted it was a U.S.-crafted document while Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia could accept the peace plan.

The fact that the document tended to mirror many of Russia’s demands immediately put Ukraine, and Europe, on the defensive.

Trump declared that Ukraine would have until American Thanksgiving — Thursday, Nov. 27 — to agree to the plan. He has since softened his stance. But he’s also lambasted Ukraine’s leadership for not showing sufficient “gratitude” for American efforts to bring peace to Ukraine.

In response, European leaders offered their own peace plan. They largely removed some of Russia’s most egregious demands, keeping some of the 28 points, while placing sensitive issues like NATO membership as something to be determined by NATO members and Ukraine.

Details of Europe’s plan

But it also acceded to some Russian demands, including accepting a cap on Ukraine’s military and offering Russia re-entry into the G8. It included a provision for territorial swaps with negotiations starting from the current front lines instead of recognizing Russia’s annexations.

European proposals include using frozen Russian assets as reparations for Russia’s aggression, eliminating any of the amnesty clauses and making the European Union and NATO the key players in any future political, economic and military security arrangements.

The European deal also removes key qualifiers in the original 28-point plan that could be manipulated by Russian misinformation — namely that Ukraine would be forced to face Russia alone if it struck either St. Petersburg or Moscow with a missile or it failed to “de-Nazify”, a common and erroneous Russian line of attack against Ukraine.

The Kremlin rejected the European counter-plan outright.




Read more:
Vladimir Putin points to history to justify his Ukraine invasion, regardless of reality


Where does the deal stand now?

Ukrainian and American officials recently met in Geneva to discuss the peace plan. Emerging from the meeting, European leaders were cautiously optimistic while insisting a lot more work needed to be done. Trump stated that “something good just may be happening.”

So what resulted from that meeting? Few details have been leaked. Sources have shared that the 28-point plan has now been pared down to 19. It has also been suggested that key issues like territorial swaps and NATO accession have been left for Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss at a future meeting.

Ukrainian officials have said the plan has been substantially revised and reflects Ukraine’s concerns.

The Russian response has been cagey, to say the least. Since there’s been no formal presentation of any revised peace plan, they are electing to say nothing firm. But U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll recently met with Russian delegates in Abu Dhabi.. Russian sources, meanwhile, have restated their preference for the original 28-point plan.




Read more:
Trump and Putin didn’t hold new peace talks after all — but that was likely Putin’s plan all along


Seeing is believing

While this appears to be the most notable progress in the peace process in months, expectations should be tempered until there’s a presidential summit between Zelenskyy and Putin and until their signatures are on a treaty.

Such momentum for peace has happened in the past. And it has often been scuttled by the key sticking points of both nations. Ukraine has continued to demand extensive security guarantees, justice for Russian war crimes, and has rejected territorial swaps. Russia has wanted a pliable Ukraine and one that could remain in its orbit politically and economically. Fundamentally, these positions haven’t changed.

At this point, it appears the Ukrainians have managed to bring the Americans to their side in the latest peace talks, which reflects the importance Ukraine places on U.S. support in their fight against Russia. Russia has elected to say little, but if it was to agree to the revised deal, it would represent a seismic shift.

For those reasons, believe in the success in the peace process when you actually see it.

The Conversation

Oleksa Drachewych does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Peace in Ukraine? Believe it when you see it, especially if Russian demands are prioritized – https://theconversation.com/peace-in-ukraine-believe-it-when-you-see-it-especially-if-russian-demands-are-prioritized-270436

Drones, physics and rats: Studies show how the people of Rapa Nui made and moved the giant statues – and what caused the island’s deforestation

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Carl Lipo, Professor of Anthropology and Associate Dean for Research, Binghamton University, State University of New York

Scientists used drones to produce this 3D model of Rano Raraku, the volcanic crater where 95% of Rapa Nui’s giant statues were carved. Lipo et al., 2025, PLOS One, CC BY

Rapa Nui, also known as Easter Island, is often portrayed in popular culture as an enigma. The rationale is clear: The tiny, remote island in the Pacific features nearly 1,000 enormous statues – the moai. The magnitude and number of these monuments defy easy explanation.

Since European ships first encountered these stone giants in the 18th century, outsiders have branded the island as fundamentally mysterious, possibly beyond archaeologists’ ability to explain. This characteristic is part of what makes the island famous. Tour operators market the inexplicable. Documentaries promise unsolved puzzles. Popular books ask how “primitive people” could possibly move 70-ton megaliths.

Archaeological researchers have put forward various explanations for the statues, which were made between 1200 and 1700, but there remains no consensus. For decades, experts offered plausible scenarios: powerful chiefs commanding workers, elite-controlled statue quarries, wooden sleds drawn by hundreds of islanders, roller systems, wooden rails and ceremonial pathway markers. Based on authoritative assertions and compelling narratives, these accounts are rarely connected to archaeological evidence.

I’m an archaeologist who has been studying Rapa Nui for more than two decades. In newly published research, my colleagues and I believe we’ve solved the mystery in three essential ways.

First, using 11,686 photographs taken by drone, we created a comprehensive, three-dimensional model of Rano Raraku, the volcanic crater where 95% of Rapa Nui’s moai were carved. It was a systematic documentation – every slope, every carved surface, every production feature captured at a resolution down to the centimeter. The model generated predictions that we and other researchers could test: If production had been centralized, workshops would have been clustered; if they’d been hierarchical, we’d find differences in resources used at each level; if it had been dictated by elites, techniques would be standardized.

Our data revealed the opposite: Drone imagery shows 30 independent workshops working simultaneously. Instead of top-down organization, small, clan-level groups seem to have used innovative human engineering.

a stone hillside with multiple carvings with colored line annotations
A close-up of a 3D model of the volcanic crater where nearly all of Rapa Nui’s giant statues were carved, with unfinished carvings outlined.
Lipo et al., 2025, PLOS One, CC BY

Previous attempts to understand Rano Raraku failed not because the quarry held impenetrable secrets but due to the lack of published documentation and the limitations of traditional mapping methods. Two-dimensional maps couldn’t capture three-dimensional relationships. Statues emerge from cliff faces at various angles. Production areas overlap vertically. Carving sequences intersect across time. Traditional archaeological methods provided impressions but missed details and couldn’t capture the system as a whole.

Our 3D model changes that. We identified 426 moai in various stages of production, 341 extraction trenches, 133 voids where completed statues were removed, and previously unmapped quarrying areas on the exterior slopes. Each workshop was self-contained, demonstrating decentralization. Three distinct carving techniques emerge, showing that different groups employed different approaches while producing standardized forms.

figures carved into a rock formation
Unfinished moai remain partially carved in a volcanic crater.
Lipo et al., 2025, PLOS One, CC BY

The walking moai

Second, we generated data to resolve the age-old question about moai transport: How did Rapanui people move these megalithic giants? Despite many decades of attempts, previous transport theories all shared a fatal flaw: They made no predictions that were testable, meaning that scientists could prove or disprove.

Our walking hypothesis – based on oral traditions, ideas by our colleague Sergio Rapu Haoa and tested by Czech engineer Pavel Pavel – made specific, testable predictions. We found that “road moai,” those statues that were abandoned along constructed roads used for transport, differ morphologically from those that reached their final destinations, large platforms called ahu.

We measured 62 moai abandoned along ancient roads. The road moai proved distinct, characterized by wider bases, D-shaped cross sections and a forward lean of 5-15 degrees. These features wouldn’t be necessary if the moai were transported in a horizontal position. They make vertical transport – “walking” the statues – possible.

In 2013, we built a 4.35-ton concrete replica scaled from road moai. It wasn’t an artistic interpretation but a precise reproduction of measurable features from a statue found along the road and abandoned during transport. With 18 people and three ropes, the statue walked 100 meters in 40 minutes.

In previous work, the author and colleagues built a replica moai to demonstrate the walking transport.

In recently published work, we documented that physics confirmed what walking the replica demonstrated about the road moai shape. The forward lean creates an inverted pendulum that converts lateral oscillation into forward progress.

Those moai that reached ahu must have been altered in order for them to stand upright stably, while those along the roads would retain the features that enabled them to be “walked.”

The distribution data for moai across the landscape provided another test: The locations of road moai leading from the quarry follow an exponential decay curve, meaning that probability of a moai falling in transport is highest near the quarry and decreases with distance since those that fall over never get any farther. Fracture patterns on those road moai with breaks align with vertical impact stresses, meaning the broken moai were damaged by falling from a standing position.

Our testable predictions held.

Deforestation without collapse

The third “mystery” is how an advanced society could destroy its own environment. The island was deforested by the end of the 17th century. This mystery also yielded to systematic analysis. We analyzed data from previous archaeological excavations. Rather than finding increased rat consumption by people, indicating dietary stress from a lack of other food sources, remains of rats eaten by people decreased over time while seafood dominated throughout.

Ecological modeling revealed what we think really happened. Polynesian rats, introduced with the arrival of the first Polynesian colonists around 1200, could grow into a population of millions within just a few years. By eating 95% of the island’s tree seeds, rats prevented forest regeneration. Humans cleared land for cultivation, but rats made the recovery of the palm forests impossible. The synergistic interaction seems to have accelerated deforestation within five centuries.

This wasn’t “ecocide” – intentional self-destruction – but rather unintended ecological transformation caused by an introduced species. Our research also demonstrated that the Rapanui adapted through the use of rock mulch agriculture, which improved soil productivity. They continued to eat seafood and produce monuments for 500 years after deforestation began.

To tackle Rapa Nui’s mysteries, we used systematic documentation. We specified testable predictions, gathered data that could prove us wrong and accepted what the evidence showed. Rapa Nui shows that even entrenched mysteries yield to methodical investigation.

The Conversation

Carl Lipo receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Geographic Society.

ref. Drones, physics and rats: Studies show how the people of Rapa Nui made and moved the giant statues – and what caused the island’s deforestation – https://theconversation.com/drones-physics-and-rats-studies-show-how-the-people-of-rapa-nui-made-and-moved-the-giant-statues-and-what-caused-the-islands-deforestation-270023

The surprising world of animal penises and what they reveal about humans

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michelle Spear, Professor of Anatomy, University of Bristol

A revealing appendage. Lukasz Janyst/Shutterstock

In the animal kingdom, penises can be spiked, split, corkscrewed – even detachable. They’re one of the most diverse structures in biology. The human penis is so uniform, it’s an anatomical outlier. Understanding why penises evolved, and why they differ so widely, also helps explain why humans have one at all.

Penises first evolved as a solution to one simple problem: how to achieve internal fertilisation.

The first animals lived in the sea before our ancestors started living on land half a billion years ago. Today, many aquatic animals still simply release sperm and eggs into the water. However, as organisms moved to land, a new mechanism was needed to transfer sperm into the female body – enter the penis.

But here’s the twist: not all land animals use one. Around 97% of bird species have no penis at all. Instead, they reproduce with a “cloacal kiss”. This is a brief contact between a single opening that serves the digestive, urinary and reproductive systems and through which sperm is transferred.

The cloacal kiss demands choreography. For most birds, mating success hinges on split-second timing, elaborate courtship and perfect physical alignment. Animals with penises have an anatomical shortcut. They can deliver sperm straight to the target, even if the encounter is brief or a bit clumsy.

So penises are just one solution among many. But once evolution settles on a penis, the possibilities multiply. It is a prime example of convergent evolution, where different, unrelated, lineages develop similar traits in response to similar pressures.

Sparrowhawk looking surprised.
It’s true – birds don’t have a penis.
mycteria/Shutterstock

In some species, penis size is driven by environmental constraints and access to mates. The barnacle, a crustacean glued to a rock for life, has the longest penis relative to body size of any known animal (up to eight times its own length). This allows it to “fish” for mates in the surrounding water. For those that may be wondering, the largest penis, at 2.5-3 metres, belongs to the blue whale.

The banana slug is a hermaphrodite with a thick penis as long as its body, evolved for deep sperm placement to boost fertilisation chances. Sometimes it gets stuck during withdrawal, and the partner bites it off. But the slug normally heals and survives.

Penile structures are often adapted for sperm competition, which is when multiple males mate with the same female, and their sperm compete internally for fertilisation. In these species, the penis becomes a competitive tool.

The domestic cat, for instance, has backward-facing spines on its penis. These stimulate ovulation in the female, ensuring sperm meets a ready egg, but also discourage mating with other males by making withdrawal painful.

In bedbugs, males take it further. They use a dagger-like penis to stab through the abdominal wall and deposit sperm directly into the body cavity. This “traumatic insemination” gives the male a bypass route – but at significant cost to the female. It’s not typically deadly, but the injuries take time and energy to heal.

Nowhere is this evolutionary struggle more vivid than in ducks. Some species of male ducks have corkscrew-shaped penises that can extend in under half a second. This is a response to female ducks evolving highly convoluted vaginas with dead-end pockets and spirals that twist in the opposite direction. This is a textbook example of sexual antagonistic co-evolution, where male traits that increase fertilisation rates are countered by female traits that limit male control.

In many reptiles, evolution has solved the problem of mating posture, the physical position and alignment of the bodies during copulation, with a pair of reproductive tracts. Snakes and lizards have hemipenes – two separate organs, only one of which is used per copulation. This redundancy probably evolved for flexibility, allowing mating from either side, and may be an adaptation to maximise success in brief mating windows.

Walrus with head just lifting above water.
Awkward sex? Walruses can tell you all about it.
Jane Rix/Shutterstock

In mammals, the penis can be reinforced by a bone: the baculum. Found in species such as dogs, chimpanzees and walruses, it allows penetration without relying on blood pressure. This structural support is useful in species where mating is prolonged or where mechanical stimulation during copulation is needed to trigger ovulation, in awkward or extended couplings like those of walruses, and when female anatomy or behaviour favours longer copulation.

What do these penises tell us about humans?

Compared to this dazzling variety, the human penis seems almost conservative. But this simplicity is deceptive.

Unlike many other mammals, humans lack a baculum. Instead, erection relies on blood flow. This mechanism may reflect a shift from brief, frequent copulations typical of high-sperm-competition species, to longer, emotionally bonded pairings. In this type of pairing, a visible, hydraulically produced erection serves not only a reproductive function, but also acts as a signal of arousal and health.

Human penile shape may still reflect adaptations to sperm competition. Scientists think the slight flaring of the glans at the corona, a prominent anatomical border between the glans and the shaft, may displace rival sperm during intercourse. This is not unusual among mammals, but in humans it may be especially important because intercourse and ovulation are often not perfectly timed, giving more scope for sperm competition. Human sperm can survive in the female reproductive tract for up to five days.

The glans and the sensitive underside frenulum contain a high concentration of sensory nerve endings that make them particularly sensitive to touch. This heightened sensitivity is thought to provide not only pleasure, but also real-time feedback. It allows the penis to respond to subtle variations in movement, pressure and partner interaction. Such feedback may have played a role in enhancing mutual sexual engagement.




Read more:
Scientists ignored animal clitorises for centuries – now we’re discovering just how varied they are


A 2011 genetic study published in Nature found that humans lost specific DNA sequences that control the development of penile spines – small, keratinised projections on the penis that in chimpanzees and macaques help increase friction and stimulate the female during mating. These spines probably increased stimulation and shortened copulatory duration. Their loss in humans may reflect a shift from competition to cooperation.

This ties into another crucial aspect of human reproductive evolution: concealed ovulation. Unlike many mammals, human females do not advertise their fertility. In response, males evolved a strategy based on sustained sexual access, emotional connection and mate guarding.

The human penis is not just a reproductive organ, but part of a broader behavioural system tied to trust, intimacy and long-term partnership.

The Conversation

Michelle Spear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The surprising world of animal penises and what they reveal about humans – https://theconversation.com/the-surprising-world-of-animal-penises-and-what-they-reveal-about-humans-261690

Minority ethnic women in the UK face economic abuse at twice the rate of white women. These are their experiences

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Punita Chowbey, Senior research fellow, Sheffield Hallam University

Prostock-studio/Shutterstock

Economic abuse may not be as obvious as physical abuse, but for the millions of people it affects in the UK, economic abuse can be totally devastating.

Economic abuse, which is recognised as a form of domestic abuse in law, involves controlling a person’s (often a woman’s) ability to acquire, use and maintain economic resources.

Separating or divorcing does not mean the end of economic abuse in a marriage, particularly when children are involved. Post-separation economic abuse is often related to child maintenance or spousal support payments, which may be manipulated or withheld by abusers.

This harms mothers’ financial independence, mental health and parenting, and has consequences for children’s wellbeing.

A recent national survey found that minority ethnic women face economic abuse at twice the rate of white women (29% vs 13%). Our recently-published research explores why, through the experiences of 28 separated or divorced British south Asian Muslim women. This research is part of our continuing research on divorce and economic abuse.

Two-thirds of our participants had been financially dependent upon their husbands during their marriages, in keeping with broader statistics on the low employment rates of British Pakistani and Bangladeshi women. Further, several participants described their husbands preventing them from working.

UK-born Afsana had to work secretly as a tutor for meagre pay: “This tutoring was undercover with my dad. My working would have looked bad on [my husband].”

After separation or divorce, women were left economically vulnerable. Some struggled to find work, due to lack of recent employment experience as well as labour market discrimination.

“I worked in one school as a volunteer, but the Jobcentre said ‘that’s not enough, we need more evidence of work,’” said one woman. “I said, ‘everywhere you apply, they ask for a qualification, and experience is the main thing.’ I was not going out … how could I have undertaken any work?”

A major theme in our research was how abusers used child maintenance as a means to control women economically. In 18 cases, the father was not paying any child maintenance. Of the rest, only two mothers felt that the amount paid was fair.

Many women described child maintenance mirroring earlier patterns of economic abuse during their marriages. As UK-born Afsana put it: “He didn’t provide when he was with me, so I didn’t expect him to provide when he was not with me.”

Where women had involved the Child Maintenance Service (CMS), they felt it was unresponsive, especially those in transnational marriages involving economic assets overseas.

UK-born Kiran described her experience with CMS after her ex-husband hid assets in Pakistan: “I’ve even given the telephone numbers and addresses in the properties which are in Pakistan. [But] ‘Excuse me. We know that you’re upset. It just takes a bit of time.’ I go, ‘How long does it need?’”

Women felt disbelieved, which undermined their confidence in the system. Although the CMS may face limits in investigating finances held overseas, women felt the evidence they provided was often ignored. Many of the men were in self-employment, which may have made it difficult for the CMS to investigate.

Legal blind spots and immigration abuse

Post-separation economic abuse can also occur through institutions like courts and banks. UK-born Hora described how her husband remarried via an unregistered Islamic marriage, which allowed him to transfer money and assets to his new wife.

She told us: “My barrister said, ‘You’re not divorced from this lady yet, but you’ve remarried.’ He said, ‘Yes judge, in my religion I can have four wives.’ And this is a High Court judge, and he said, ‘Yes, quite!’”

Hora felt that this comment suggested the judge supported her husband’s use of religious justification for re-marrying before divorce, rather than recognising it as part of financial abuse.

Illustration of a man looking through a woman's wallet.
Economic abuse can happen in relationships, or after separation.
BNP Design/Shutterstock

Women with an insecure immigration status might also experience “immigration abuse”. This too can be a form of economic abuse, where, for example, an abuser uses the threat of deportation or immigration enforcement to trap women in financially dependent relationships.

Several women described struggling to open a bank account or obtain credit due to their migration status being exploited by their abusers. Pakistan-born divorcee Fauzia had never had a national insurance number, child benefit or bank account until these were arranged for her by a social worker at the women’s refuge she turned to with her children.

Our research suggests that south Asian women can face severe post-separation economic abuse due to multiple, intersecting disadvantages across the home, labour market and state institutions. Addressing these inequalities requires policies that take women seriously, while also being culturally sensitive and aware of the multiple challenges these women face.

The Conversation

Punita Chowbey receives funding from the NIHR, UKRI and Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Punita works closely with charities working on gender based violence.

Kaveri Qureshi receives funding from the NIHR and the ESRC. Kaveri Qureshi works closely with charities working on gender violence.

ref. Minority ethnic women in the UK face economic abuse at twice the rate of white women. These are their experiences – https://theconversation.com/minority-ethnic-women-in-the-uk-face-economic-abuse-at-twice-the-rate-of-white-women-these-are-their-experiences-267263

Your daily orange juice could be helping your heart

Source: The Conversation – UK – By David C. Gaze, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Pathology, University of Westminster

Ivanko80/Shutterstock

Most of us think of orange juice as a simple breakfast habit, something you pour without much thought. Yet scientists are discovering that this everyday drink may be doing far more in the body than quenching thirst.

A recent study has shown that regular orange juice consumption can influence the activity of thousands of genes inside our immune cells. Many of these genes help control blood pressure, calm inflammation and manage the way the body processes sugar, all of which play an important role in long-term heart health.

The study followed adults who drank 500ml of pure pasteurised orange juice every day for two months. After 60 days, many genes associated with inflammation and higher blood pressure had become less active.

These included NAMPT, IL6, IL1B and NLRP3, which usually switch on when the body is under stress. Another gene known as SGK1, which affects the kidneys’ ability to hold onto sodium (salt), also became less active.

Such changes match previous findings that daily orange juice drinking can reduce blood pressure in young adults.

A regular glass of orange juice could be beneficial for heart health.
retan/Shutterstock

This is noteworthy because it offers a possible explanation for why orange juice has been linked to better heart health in several trials. The new work shows that the drink does not simply raise blood sugar. Instead, it appears to trigger small shifts in the body’s regulatory systems that reduce inflammation and help blood vessels relax.

Natural compounds in oranges, particularly hesperidin, a citrus flavonoid known for its antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects, seem to influence processes related to high blood pressure, cholesterol balance and the way the body handles sugar.

The response also varies by body size. People carrying more weight tended to show greater changes in genes involved in fat metabolism, while leaner volunteers showed stronger effects on inflammation.

A systematic review of controlled trials involving 639 participants from 15 studies found that regular orange juice consumption lowered insulin resistance and blood cholesterol levels. Insulin resistance is a key feature of pre-diabetes, and high cholesterol is an established risk factor for heart disease.

Another analysis focusing on overweight and obese adults found small reductions in systolic blood pressure and increases in high density lipoprotein (HDL), often called the good cholesterol, after several weeks of daily orange juice consumption. Although these changes are modest, even slight improvements in blood pressure and cholesterol can make a meaningful difference when maintained over many years.

More clues come from studies that examine metabolites, the tiny molecules produced as the body processes food. A recent review found that orange juice influences pathways related to energy use, communication between cells and inflammation. It may also affect the gut microbiome, which is increasingly understood to play a role in heart health.

One study showed that drinking blood orange juice for a month increased the number of gut bacteria that produce short-chain fatty acids. These compounds help maintain healthy blood pressure and reduce inflammation. Volunteers also showed improved blood sugar control and lower levels of inflammatory markers.

People with metabolic syndrome, a cluster of risk factors that includes high blood pressure, raised blood sugar and excess body fat, may see particular benefits.

In one study, daily orange juice consumption improved the function of the lining of blood vessels, known as endothelial function, in 68 obese participants. Endothelial function describes how well blood vessels relax and widen, and better function is associated with a lower risk of heart attacks.

Not all studies report the same outcomes. A broader analysis of blood fat concentrations found that although levels of low density lipoprotein (LDL), often called the bad cholesterol, often fall, other lipid measurements such as triglycerides and HDL may not change much. Even so, people who regularly drink orange juice may still benefit.

A study of 129 workers in an orange juice factory in Brazil reported lower blood concentrations of apolipoprotein B, or apo-B, a marker that reflects the number of cholesterol-carrying particles linked to heart attack risk.

Altogether, the evidence challenges the idea that drinking citrus fruit juice is simply consuming sugar in a glass. Whole fruit remains the better choice because of its fibre, but a modest daily glass of pure orange juice appears to have effects that build up over time.

These include easing inflammation, supporting healthier blood flow and improving several blood markers linked to long-term heart health. It is a reminder that everyday foods can have more influence on the body than we might expect.

The Conversation

David C. Gaze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Your daily orange juice could be helping your heart – https://theconversation.com/your-daily-orange-juice-could-be-helping-your-heart-270492

Root canals and blood sugar: the connection you probably haven’t heard of

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vikram Niranjan, Assistant Professor in Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Limerick

Prostock-studio/Shutterstock

As a public health dentist and researcher, for years I saw the same pattern. Patients with deep root infections often had wider health problems, particularly those with diabetes. I did not yet understand why. Now, scientific studies are beginning to explain the link: treating a deep tooth infection may also help the body manage blood sugar.

A tooth infection might seem like a relatively minor health issue, but its effects can reach far beyond the mouth. Recent research found that people who had root canal treatment for long-lasting infections at the root tip experienced lower blood sugar and reduced inflammation over the following two years.

The same pattern was also seen in a longitudinal metabolomic analysis, which is a type of investigation that tracks people over time and uses detailed blood tests to measure hundreds of small molecules that show how the body is functioning. It allows scientists to see how a treatment influences overall metabolism, not just the infected tooth.

The patients in the metabolic analysis had apical periodontitis, which is a deep infection around the very tip of a tooth root. It often causes no pain, so many people do not know they have it until it shows up on an X-ray.

Blood tests before and after treatment showed improvements in long-term blood sugar and markers linked to heart and metabolic health. Simply removing the infected tissue inside the tooth seemed to benefit the body far from the site of the infection.

Illustration of root canal treatment
Clearing the infection inside the tooth appeared to improve health throughout the body.
Koushik Chatterjee/Shutterstock

One reason is that these infections do not always stay local. When bacteria reach the tissues around the tooth root, the immune system responds. If the infection persists, the body produces low-grade inflammation: a constant, simmering immune response that never fully switches off.

This type of background inflammation can spread through the bloodstream. It can make it harder for the body to regulate sugar effectively because chronic inflammationinterferes with how insulin works, reducing the body’s ability to move sugar out of the blood and into cells.

To understand how this local problem can spark body-wide effects, researchers have pulled the evidence together: a narrative review summarises findings from many studies and maps the biological pathways that may link apical periodontitis to wider systemic disease.

Oral infections and diabetes

Many studies have explored this connection between oral infections and diabetes, and these findings can be summarised more simply. A review of seven studies found that people with diabetes are more likely to have persistent lesions around root-treated teeth.

In this case, it is diabetes that increases the risk of slow healing – not the other way around. High blood sugar weakens the immune response and disrupts bone repair, so lesions at the tip of the root (seen on X-rays as darker areas where bone has not healed properly) are more common.

Another review found that people with diabetes also face a higher risk of developing new apical periodontitis in root-filled teeth compared with people without diabetes. A clinical study involving hundreds of root-filled teeth reported the same trend.

Patients with diabetes had more persistent lesions than those without, reflecting poorer glycaemic control – meaning blood sugar levels remain consistently higher than recommended, something known to slow healing throughout the body, including in bone and connective tissue.

More information on this connection can be found in clinical guidelines from diabetes and oral-health organisations, and in research on wound healing and glycaemic control, which all highlight how high blood sugar impairs immune function and tissue repair.

Researchers are now studying what happens when these infections are treated successfully. One study using detailed metabolic testing found that root canal therapy not only resolved the infection but also led to better blood sugar control and reductions in inflammatory markers.

Root canal treatment removes the infected tissue and seals the space, stopping bacteria and toxins from affecting surrounding tissues. Another study confirmed that while lesions in root-treated teeth heal more slowly in people with diabetes, they do improve once the infection is managed. Even gradual healing seems to benefit the body as a whole.

These findings echo what we know about gum disease. Treating gum infections can improve blood sugar control in people with diabetes, a relationship supported by studies showing that periodontal therapy – professional treatment to remove plaque, tartar and infection from below the gumline – modestly reduces HbA1c levels.

HbA1c is a measure of average blood sugar over several weeks, so even a small reduction indicates improved long-term glucose control. Scientists suggest that reducing chronic inflammation in the mouth may help the body regulate sugar more effectively.

Man having dental check up
Research suggests that treating gum infections can improve blood sugar control in people with diabetes.
PeopleImages/Shutterstock

What makes infections at the tip of the tooth root so interesting is how easy they are to miss. Unlike gum disease, which often causes pain, swelling, or bleeding, apical infections can exist silently, while inflammation quietly spreads through the body. Reviews of apical periodontitis emphasise how often it goes unnoticed.

None of this means that root canals are a treatment for diabetes. The changes observed in studies are moderate and depend on factors such as infection severity and overall health.

And researchers are clear that causality is not yet established, so more controlled trials are needed. But the research strongly suggests that oral health has a wider role in metabolic health than most people realise.

For people with diabetes or at risk of it, this connection matters. A painful tooth, or even one that simply feels different, could be more than a local problem.

These findings also highlight a bigger issue, which is that dental care and medical care are often treated as separate worlds. The research on root canal infections shows how closely linked they can be. A properly treated tooth can save more than a smile; it may contribute to better overall health.

The Conversation

Vikram Niranjan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Root canals and blood sugar: the connection you probably haven’t heard of – https://theconversation.com/root-canals-and-blood-sugar-the-connection-you-probably-havent-heard-of-270129

‘I have to talk about it so that the world can know what happened to women and girls in Sudan’ – rape and terror sparks mass migration

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sabine Lee, Professor in Modern History, University of Birmingham

I was in Khartoum when the conflict started. Armed soldiers of Arabs came to our house and they wanted to loot groundnuts, but my mother resisted opening the door. Immediately, one soldier shot her. I screamed but three of the soldiers surrounded me. They grabbed me and I was taken behind a building where ten soldiers raped me. Nobody came to rescue me because my mom was already shot dead and neighbours ran away. After two days, when my mom was buried, I joined others to come to South Sudan.

This girl’s story was shared with us near the Aweil border crossing between South Sudan and Sudan, and it mirrors what we heard from many others. In the sweltering heat of July 2024 – and with mud underfoot and rainwater pooling along the road – South Sudanese members of our international team asked people to share stories about experiences of women and girls making the perilous journey between the two countries. The accounts they shared were harrowing, urgent, and clear.

We spoke with nearly 700 returnees and forced migrants – women and men, girls and boys – many of whom shared similar experiences of being terrorised by soldiers and armed militias on both sides of the Sudan civil war. The war has been tearing the country apart since 2023 and has led to the deaths of more than 150,000 people.

The struggle for power between Sudan’s army and a powerful paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has led to a famine and claims of a genocide in the western Darfur region. The RSF was formed in 2013 and has its origins in the notorious Janjaweed militia that fought rebels in Darfur, where they were accused of genocide and ethnic cleansing against the region’s non-Arab population. New reports about massacres and atrocities continue to emerge.

As the crisis deepens, our research has revealed that sexual and gender-based violence is a major driver of migration to South Sudan. Over half of our participants said it was the main reason they sought sanctuary across the border, with adolescent girls, aged 13 to 17, being far more likely to state that sexual violence was the reason they had to migrate.


The Insights section is committed to high-quality longform journalism. Our editors work with academics from many different backgrounds who are tackling a wide range of societal and scientific challenges.


The research, which was recently published in Conflict and Health , uncovered multiple harrowing accounts of gang rapes and murder, some on children as young as 12.

What is happening in South Sudan and Sudan?

Since its independence in 2011, South Sudan has remained among the most fragile states globally, plagued by chronic political instability and humanitarian crises. Following internal divisions, a devastating civil war, fought largely along ethnic lines, erupted in 2013. This conflict resulted in nearly 400,000 deaths and an estimated 2.3 million people forcibly displaced, including 800,000 to Sudan. Another two million people were internally displaced within South Sudan, severely undermining state-building efforts. The country has remained on a knife-edge with the UN stating in October that it is on the brink of returning to all-out civil war.

The outbreak of war in Sudan in 2023 further exacerbated South Sudan’s fragilities and vulnerabilities, jeopardised peace efforts and worsened the existing humanitarian crisis. The Sudan conflict triggered a massive influx, this time with over 1.2 million refugees and returnees crossing into South Sudan – placing immense pressure on already overstretched resources and services.




Read more:
Why has Sudan descended into mass slaughter? The answer goes far beyond simple ethnic conflict


As of 2024, over 9.3 million people in South Sudan – more than 70% of the population – required humanitarian assistance, with 7.8 million facing acute food insecurity. Over 2.3 million children were at risk of malnutrition, with some regions nearing famine conditions.

Even before 2023, South Sudan was among the highest-ranking countries for sexual and gender-based violence globally, having the second-highest rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The border between Sudan and South Sudan has long been a corridor of cyclical displacement, shaped by decades of war, famine, and political instability. However, the scale and complexity of the current crisis has intensified vulnerabilities, particularly for women and girls. The effects have manifested in rape, sexual abuse, trafficking, and forced prostitution – on both sides of the border.

Fleeing sexual violence and terror

We focused our study on that border and the people who were fleeing through it. We used “sensemaking” methodology (based on the principle that storytelling is an intuitive way to convey complex information and helps people make sense of their experiences) to document what happened to women on their journeys and the risks they faced in the South Sudanese settlements. We had adopted a similar approach when examining accounts of sexual exploitation by UN peacekeepers in Haiti and DRC.

The fieldwork team – three female and three male researchers from the not-for-profit STEWARDWOMEN – worked on the border of Aweil North for two weeks to collect these stories. STEWARDWOMEN is a women-led South Sudanese organisation which aims to address violence against women, including sexual violence.

Our team collected 695 stories from 671 people. The vast majority were South Sudanese returning to a country they had once fled (98%), and most were women of child-bearing age (88%). Over half of the stories were first-person accounts of their own migration, while others were shared by men about their female relatives.

The aim was to make sure people felt safe and empowered to speak openly. Josephine Chandiru Drama, a South Sudanese human rights lawyer and former director of STEWARDWOMEN, said:

By inviting women and girls to share their migration experiences in their own words, the data collectors honoured their agency and voice. This approach fostered trust, reduced retraumatisation, and yielded richer, more authentic narratives that reflect the lived realities of displacement.

‘They took the girls by force’

While violence is forcing families to flee Sudan, the risk is not shared equally. Our findings show how adolescent girls are disproportionately at the greatest risk.

Girls face acute danger that families often can’t easily prevent. Armed groups raid homes and camps, abducting girls or seizing them on roads and at checkpoints. Girls are singled out and subjected to sexual harassment and rape.

Parents may try to travel in groups, change routes, or hide their daughters, but when men with guns stop a bus or enter a village at night, their protection options are limited. These risks intensify as poverty deepens and safe transport is scarce. These conditions leave girls visible, isolated, and at risk. One woman told us how they were attacked:

… the rebel car came towards us. They took the girls by force and they raped us, the men could not do anything to protect us. What hurts is raping you in open even when the men are seeing us … what the Arabs did to women and girls was terrible and it is not only me going through it.

Another woman shared a desperately traumatic story about the rape and murder of her daughter. She said:

My 12-year-old daughter was raped by a group of soldiers and died instantly. This is a very sad story to tell but I have to talk about it so that the world can know what happened to women and girls in Sudan … The soldiers then raped all the five girls … Unfortunately, my raped little daughter died on the roadside … It was such a painful moment …

Our data confirmed this terrifying reality. When we looked at the responses by age, a statistically significant pattern emerged: adolescent girls, aged 13 to 17, were far more likely than older women to state that sexual violence was the reason they had to migrate.

We asked participants to place the experience they shared on a spectrum: was sexual violence the reason for migrating, or did it happen because of migrating? For adolescent girls, the answers clustered overwhelmingly at one end: sexual violence was the trigger, not a consequence of the journey.

It is possible that among older women sexual violence has become somewhat normalised after surviving previous conflicts in the region, compounded by the fact that younger, unmarried girls are specifically targeted for abduction and forced marriage. One girl explained what happened to her sister:

As we travelled to look for safety in our motherland of South Sudan … all the women and girls were ordered out of the car… and were raped by a group of five soldiers. As an innocent young girl, my 15-year-old sister tried to resist […] and she was beaten badly, raped by all the five soldiers and then killed … We were ordered to leave, and my sister was no more.

‘I came here … to change my life’

One young woman – barely out of her teens – reported feeling ashamed and embarrassed, as she told us about how they were attacked while fleeing to South Sudan.

… we were suddenly attacked by the militia and I was among the eight girls to be abducted. I was raped by four repeatedly for two days … The rape made me miscarry a three-month old baby and I contracted syphilis.

While violence is not unexpected in war, when we analysed the stories, a stark pattern emerged: overall 53% of participants specifically identified sexual and gender-based violence as a major reason to flee, and across every age group it was the primary driver. For many, it wasn’t simply a consequence of war – it was the final straw in the decision to leave Sudan.

The stories brought this data to life. A mother recounted the death of her child along the migration route, a direct result of the violence they were escaping. One man described how his wife and daughter were abducted along the route, leaving him to care for four other children and wondering whether they were still alive. He said:

It pains me a lot because I don’t know whether they are alive. Information circulates that most of the women and girls who were abducted were mob raped and many died. Maybe my wife and her daughter are victims.

These stories, like those of countless other women and their families, illustrate clearly that sexual violence was not a mere background noise to war – it was indeed the breaking point that sent them on the road. As one woman told us, the sexual violence she feared prompted her family to migrate to South Sudan:

My husband was taken by the Rapid Support Forces and I was stabbed when I refused to be raped by those men, I even still have the scar. I came here [to South Sudan] to change my life.

In the Aweil North temporary settlement, Kiir Adem, the team found shocking conditions. Designed as a short-term shelter, prior to resettlement by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), many people had been there for three months or longer. Some had been registered as refugees or returnees, others had not. All were struggling to survive without adequate food or shelter, and with no access to desperately needed healthcare.

Chandiru Drama said: “Due to rampant looting and robbery along the journey, countless individuals reached their destination stripped of essentials – no food, no clothing, no supplies.”

The reality after crossing

After crossing the border to relative safety in South Sudan, returnees and refugees were met with a new set of struggles: lack of infrastructure, limited access to medical care, and few humanitarian provisions.

Unlike in better established reception centres along the border, Kiir Adem had little in the way of support. The nearest health centre was over two hours away by car, an often impossible journey for exhausted, injured women and girls who had been robbed of any money or supplies they had carried. One woman told us:

It took me six days to reach South Sudan border. At the border, I reported the rape case but no treatment was given to me. The IOM officials referred me to health facilities in Gok Marchar which is about 50km but it was very far that I couldn’t travel and I didn’t have money for transport.

It is crucial for survivors of rape to receive prophylactic treatments and other emergency sexual and reproductive healthcare as soon as possible post-assault. Some participants detailed devastating physical injuries resulting from sexual violence, and still others were pregnant when raped or became pregnant as a result of rape. In these cases, the lack of medical care may result in dire outcomes.

Returnees were left, in many cases, to piece together their own makeshift shelters and to forage for food in the forests. The area was prone to flooding, with researchers having to wade through water to get to people. One woman said:

I travelled to South Sudan in April 2024 with two children. I am now stranded with my children because my husband ran away when the Arabs were rampantly sexually assaulting women … I never know whether he is alive or not. There were two girls who were also abducted during the migration to South Sudan. I am now in the returnees camp sleeping in grass thatched huts, a lot of rain, no tents, no food.

When asked how often they struggle to make ends meet, over 80% of women and girls responded, “all the time or most of the time”. Informal settlements, like the one where we collected data, have been developed along the length of the Sudan-South Sudan border.

The porousness of the border, regular movement across the border in times of relative peace, and the difficulties accessing formal crossing points make it near-impossible to effectively channel displaced peoples through formal crossing points and into comparatively well-serviced settlements. Improved services, including transports to official settlements and for medical care, are urgently needed in the border region to meet the high needs of returnees wherever they are located.

Urgent response needed

There must now be a shift in humanitarian response – from reactive service provision to proactive, survivor-centred protection strategies. For example, NGOs should increase activities along known migration routes and along the border and humanitarian aid funding must be increased by donor governments. The UN peacekeeping mission could also increase protection of civilian activities in South Sudanese border regions, in partnership with South Sudanese civil society organisations.

Sexual violence is not simply collateral damage of the war in Sudan. For many girls and their families, it is the primary catalyst for flight. The pervasive threat of abduction and rape is a key driver of migration, shaping who flees, when they flee, and compelling women and girls to take the unimaginable risks for a chance of safety in South Sudan.




Read more:
‘People who spent years saving lives are now struggling to survive’ – how we witnessed Trump’s USAID cuts devastate health programmes in Kenya


Since our data collection in the summer of 2024, the situation in Sudan has not improved and the security context in South Sudan has worsened. On the southern side of the border, increased conflict between ethnically-based armed groups and an uptick in political tensions between President Salva Kiir and first Vice-President Riek Machar, including the house arrest and subsequent treason trial against Machar, have stoked fears of a possible return to war in South Sudan.

Combined with increased economic pressures and spillover effects from the war in Sudan, South Sudan’s political and security status is increasingly precarious. The risk of South Sudan returning to war increases the urgency with which returnees must be resettled and their immediate needs met. The risks of increased conflict and violence will disproportionately impact those who are already displaced and vulnerable. Legally trained NGO personnel could help here by advancing criminal investigations which in turn could inform service provision.

International law has also been very slow to react. It was only in October this year that judges at the International Criminal Court advanced the first conviction for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Darfur in 2003 and 2004. Victims and survivors of the current war should not have to wait more than 20 years for trials.

The international community should work with women’s organisations, Sudanese and South Sudanese lawyers and human rights defenders to advance justice now, in whatever way is possible.

This could include survivor-centred investigations and evidence gathering, community justice initiatives, and safe spaces for survivors to begin their healing.

Women-led civil society organisations are well placed to support the immediate needs of women and girls, but they need support. Funding cuts have hit these organisations hard around the world, with many at risk of shutting down.

Chandiru Drama added: “If civil society organisations are to continue performing their lifesaving work, they must be funded at scale. This is not just a funding issue – it’s a justice issue … Because in the face of unimaginable violence, these groups are not just service providers – they are lifelines.”

The women and girls we met were clear: sexual violence forced their decision to run. If they are to stop running, an urgent response is needed: resettlement, humanitarian support, and justice must be prioritised.


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The Conversation

Sabine Lee received funding from the XCEPT Cross-Border Research and the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme, which funded the research detailed herein.

Heather Tasker receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), International Development Research Council (IDRC), and the XCEPT Cross-Border Research and the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme. XCEPT funded the research detailed herein.

Susan Bartels received funding from the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme, which funded the research presented in this article. She also receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR).

ref. ‘I have to talk about it so that the world can know what happened to women and girls in Sudan’ – rape and terror sparks mass migration – https://theconversation.com/i-have-to-talk-about-it-so-that-the-world-can-know-what-happened-to-women-and-girls-in-sudan-rape-and-terror-sparks-mass-migration-269456

Introducing a new way to track animals in the deep blue

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Edward Lavender, Postdoctoral Researcher, Aquatic Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology; Edinburgh Napier University

A flapper skate swims away following tagging. James Thorburn, CC BY-NC-ND

The development of miniaturised electronic tags that can be attached to animals has been one of the most spectacular developments for biology, environmental science and wildlife conservation in the 21st century.

In a new study published in the journal Science Advances, my colleagues and I unlocked new opportunities to track animals underwater, using advanced statistical techniques also adopted in military and aerospace contexts.

Animals are tracked all over the world: in deserts, grasslands, forests, rivers, lakes and oceans, from the Arctic to the Antarctic. Satellite-based tags, which transmit the locations of tagged animals, have been particularly important, providing an unprecedented “eye on life and planet”.

But reconstructing the movements of animals that live exclusively underwater without ever surfacing remains a great challenge.

Beneath the waves, satellite-based trackers don’t work because the transmissions can’t pass effectively through water. So scientists have to rely on indirect observations to study animal movements, like detections on hydrophones or animal-borne depth measurements.

In Scotland, we have spent over a decade studying the movements of the critically endangered flapper skate (Dipturus intermedius). Skates, and their close cousins the sharks, are an ancient and diverse group of animals. The flapper skate is the world’s largest skate.

boat at sea, coast in distance
Flapper skate fieldwork on the west coast of Scotland.
James Thorburn, CC BY-NC-ND

Growing over two metres long and 100kg in weight, flapper skate can be found roaming in the darkness over the seabed in the north-east Atlantic. It’s thought they may live for over 40 years.

For generations, flapper skate was mislabelled as common skate. It was only in 2010 that the common skate was shown, genetically, to comprise two species: the flapper and the common blue skate. Both are thought to be critically endangered due to historical overfishing.

In 2016, the Loch Sunart to the Sound of Jura marine protected area in Scotland was established with fisheries restrictions to conserve flapper skate. It’s an inspiring place. The mountains of Scotland’s west coast rise dramatically out of the sea, which is peppered with islands and inlets. But the landscape is just as rugged underwater, where flapper skate roam in the deep.

Listening for animals underwater

Since 2016, we’ve been tracking flapper skate in Scotland using a technology called passive acoustic telemetry. It’s used in aquatic environments all over the world to track fish and other animals underwater. Animals are tagged with acoustic transmitters and networks of listening stations (hydrophones) are deployed that can detect those signals when tagged animals swim within range.

For flapper skate, we also deploy pressure sensors that record their depths. The challenge has been to integrate these different kinds of information to reconstruct individual movements, deep below the surface.

two people on boat holding skate to tag it on deck
A flapper skate is monitored during tagging by Edward Lavender (right) and colleague Jane Dodd.
James Thorburn, CC BY-NC-ND

In our study, we took a step forward to solving this problem with a powerful statistical approach. It’s quite intuitive. We treat animals as “particles” that can swim around and reproduce or dwindle. Particles that move in ways that align with the data we collected are more prolific breeders and come to dominate the (digital) population. Similar techniques can be used in military tracking because the data updating step, which drives particle frequency, can happen in real time.

It’s just like building a sandcastle. We have a bunch of particles and the collection of all these particles forms a 3D map of an animal’s possible locations.

This is a great advance for conservation. By integrating information from multiple technologies into the algorithm, we can build up more detailed pictures of animal movements in the ocean. We can map their patterns of space use, work out how long they spend in particular habitats and use this information to inform conservation action.

For flapper skate, we found that they spend a remarkable amount of time in the protected area, so the fisheries restrictions there should support local recovery. We also identified specific hotspots beyond protected areas, where additional management may be beneficial. This work takes us another step towards targeted, data-driven conservation.

We’re now refining our methods and software implementations to reduce computing time. We’re also further developing our analyses to reconstruct detailed animal tracks, identify egg nurseries and build immersive virtual reality experiences of the lives of animals underwater. There is still much more to learn about animals in the deep.


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The study was funded by Eawag, using data made available via the Movement Ecology of Flapper Skate project. Data collection was funded by the Marine Directorate, NatureScot and the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland.

ref. Introducing a new way to track animals in the deep blue – https://theconversation.com/introducing-a-new-way-to-track-animals-in-the-deep-blue-270592