La conversación docente: no pregunte a la IA lo que puede hacer por usted

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Eva Catalán, Editora de Educación, The Conversation

Stokkete/Shutterstock CC BY

La frase de nuestro título: “No pregunte a la IA qué puede hacer por usted…”, además de parafrasear a Kennedy, apunta a una cuestión básica respecto al papel de la inteligencia artificial en la educación: entender en qué nos ayuda y en qué nos perjudica su uso. Hoy traigo perspectivas nuevas y propuestas concretas, como siempre, para usar en la clase, tanto de secundaria como de universidad.

La IA llegó al panorama educativo con la promesa de personalizar el aprendizaje, facilitando de esta manera el rendimiento de los estudiantes más rezagados. Pero una reciente investigación de María Luisa Fanjul Fernández, Francisco José Pradana Pérez y Joaquín Pérez Martín de la Universidad Europea ha comprobado que esta tecnología no reduce la brecha entre estudiantes “buenos” o “malos”. Los que ya tienen buenos hábitos de estudio son los que consiguen profundizar en los contenidos, mejorar su comprensión y desarrollar nuevas competencias gracias a la IA. El resto piensa sobre todo en ahorrar tiempo: algunos para mejorar productividad (aunque no las notas) y otros simplemente por esforzarse menos.

“De esta manera, lejos de igualar oportunidades, esta herramienta puede ampliar la brecha educativa. Por ejemplo, hemos visto que entre los estudiantes con mejor rendimiento, el 72 % asegura revisar o contrastar siempre la información generada por la IA. Entre los de peor rendimiento, solo el 28 % lo hace”, advierten los autores.

La mente humana adora los atajos. Está en nuestro ADN. Que los universitarios no prioricen aprender más y mejor es un problema de actitud y objetivos. Aquellos que se apoyen demasiado en la inteligencia artificial, aunque saquen el grado, no saldrán igual de preparados. ¿Qué pasa en secundaria? Las mentes de los adolescentes están en pleno crecimiento, y hay tareas escolares que precisamente contribuyen a ese desarrollo cognitivo. ¿Qué hacemos para convencerles de que no les compensa, y para demostrarles cómo sí pueden hacerlo bien?Por ejemplo: leer un libro y resumirlo. En su artículo, Esther Nieto Moreno de Diezmas de la Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, explica lo que aporta esta tarea escolar al cerebro desde el punto de vista cognitivo, pero también emocional y metacognitivo. Ahorrar tiempo está muy bien cuando tenemos encima una fecha de entrega, pero, advierte esta experta, “conviene pararse a analizar en qué estamos ahorrando exactamente y cuáles son las contrapartidas”.

Coinciden con ella Jorge Chauca García, de la Universidad de Málaga, que ofrece ejemplos concretos de qué sí se puede hacer con la inteligencia artificial en la asignatura de Historia en secundaria y Bachillerato; y Luis Daniel Lozano Flores, de la Universidad de Guadalajara México, que insiste en esta idea: la tecnología potencia nuestras capacidades, pero para que no acabe sustituyéndolas, tenemos que ser estratégicos. Resumiento: no es lo que puede hacer por nosotros la IA, es lo que nosotros podemos hacer con ella.

Otros temas de interés de esta quincena tienen que ver con la diferencia entre enseñar y adoctrinar, estudiar un grado o máster en otro idioma, y cómo fomentar la autoconfianza de las niñas en matemáticas para reducir la brecha de género en esta disciplina. Espero que los disfruten. Para quienes viven en Madrid (o también para los que no, porque estará disponible en streaming), no quiero dejar pasar la oportunidad de animarles a acudir a nuestro encuentro en el Espacio Telefónica con el experto en neuroeducación David Bueno. Hablaremos del bienestar digital de los niños y los adolescentes, del papel que puede o debería tener la tecnología en el aprendizaje, y de cómo puede mejorar la enseñanza aplicando lo que sabemos del desarrollo cognitivo infantil y adolescente.

The Conversation

ref. La conversación docente: no pregunte a la IA lo que puede hacer por usted – https://theconversation.com/la-conversacion-docente-no-pregunte-a-la-ia-lo-que-puede-hacer-por-usted-268371

Woven baskets aren’t just aesthetically pleasing – materials science research finds they’re sturdier and more resilient than stiff containers

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Guowei (Wayne) Tu, Ph.D. Student in Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan

Woven fabric is resilient to stress because it tends to bend more than rigid materials before breaking. Jordan Lye/Moment via Getty Images

People have been using flat, ribbonlike materials, such as reed strips, to make woven baskets for thousands of years. This weaving method has reemerged as a technique for engineers to create textile and fabric structures with complex geometry. While beautiful and intricate, these baskets can also be surprisingly strong.

We are a team of structures and materials scientists at the University of Michigan. We wanted to figure out how basketlike structures that use traditional weaving techniques can be so sturdy, load-bearing and resilient.

To explore the resilience of baskets, we designed a series of small woven units that can be assembled into larger structures. These woven designs provide almost the same stiffness as nonwoven structures, such as plastic bins. They also do not fracture and fail when bent and twisted the way nonwoven, continuous systems (made out of a continuous sheet material) do.

Our basketlike woven structures have many potential applications, including tiny robots that are very damage resilient – these robots can be run over by a car and still do not fail. We could also make woven clothes to help protect people from severe impacts such as car crashes. We made these woven structures using Mylar (a type of polymer material), wood and steel.

A pile of woven baskets
Basket weaving as a practice has been around for centuries.
Mlenny/iStock via Getty Images

Testing woven baskets

Early humans made baskets by weaving slender strips of bark or reeds, and some Indigenous societies use these techniques today. Basket weaving was an efficient way to turn one-dimensional strips into three-dimensional containers.

This geometric benefit is a direct motivation for basket weaving, but in our study published in August 2025 in Physical Review Research, we wanted to find out whether basket weaving can provide more than aesthetic value in modern science and engineering.

In our experiment, we compared woven and nonwoven containers that had the same overall shape and were fabricated using the same amount and type of materials.

The “ribbons” we used were 10 millimeters wide and two-tenths of a millimeter thick. They were always woven in the same over/under/over/under pattern. We wove baskets from the flat ribbons and then created models using 3D scans of these woven containers that helped us examine the underlying similarities and differences between the woven and continuous structures.

We found that these containers had similar stiffness to containers not made from woven materials, and they also went back to their initial shape after we bent or twisted them.

A figure with three panels, the first shows two nearly identical boxes, one woven and one continuous (non-woven). The second panel shows both boxes being twisted and squished. The third shows both structure afterwards. The woven has retained its shape while the continuous looks squished and twisted.
When comparing rectangular boxes made of woven sheets of Mylar polyester ribbons and a continuous sheet of the same material, the woven structure could still bear a load after undergoing compression (axial buckling) and twisting (torsional buckling), while the continuous sheet could not. These structures are made of Mylar (a type of polymer material).
Tu & Filipov, 2025

When you place a heavy object on a woven structure, the ribbons are mainly being stretched instead of bent. This stretching makes them stiff because ribbons are much stiffer when they are stretched compared to bent. On top of that, the ribbons are not rigidly connected in woven structures, which gives them their extraordinary resilience.

By harnessing basket-weaving techniques, engineers can potentially create better materials for cars, consumer devices such as smartwatches, and soft robots, which are robots made from soft materials instead of rigid ones. Essentially, these techniques could improve any device when the material needs to be stiff and resilient.

What’s next

Our research team is still exploring a few big, unanswered questions about these woven baskets.

First, we want to understand how the geometry of the woven baskets determines their stiffness and resilience, and create an analytical or numerical model to describe this relationship. We’d then like to use that model to design woven structures that fit a target stiffness and resilience. Most woven baskets are handmade because their geometry is complex and difficult for a machine to manufacture.

Second, we’d like to figure out how to create a machine that can fabricate woven baskets autonomously. Automated machines can produce two-dimensional woven fabrics, but we’d like to learn how to modernize and digitalize the ancient craft of three-dimensional basket weaving.

Third, we want to understand how to integrate electronic materials into three-dimensional basket weaving to create next-generation robotic textiles. These robotic textiles could sense, actuate, move around, bear a load, stay resilient to accidental overload and safely interact with humans at the same time.

Basket-weaving research and applications

Ours isn’t the only study exploring the complex geometry of basket weaving and the potential of applying basket-weaving techniques to architectural design.

For example, researchers teamed up with an artist to tweak a popular basket-weaving approach, finding ways to weave the ribbons and produce any curvature they desired. Later, the same research team used this methodology to fabricate woven domes. They found that they could tune the stiffness and stability of woven domes by varying the curvature of the ribbons.

In another relevant study, researchers built algorithms that optimized the size, shape and curvature of ribbons, then used those ribbons to weave together a geometrically sophisticated structure.

Our new work and these other teams’ work is putting a modern spin on technology that has likely been around since the dawn of humanity.

The Conversation

Evgueni Filipov has received research funding from AFOSR.

Guowei (Wayne) Tu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Woven baskets aren’t just aesthetically pleasing – materials science research finds they’re sturdier and more resilient than stiff containers – https://theconversation.com/woven-baskets-arent-just-aesthetically-pleasing-materials-science-research-finds-theyre-sturdier-and-more-resilient-than-stiff-containers-265567

The Trump administration’s anti-immigrant housing policy reflects a long history of xenophobia in public housing

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rahim Kurwa, Associate professor of Sociology, University of Illinois Chicago

An aerial view of a housing development Las Vegas, Nev., on Aug. 8, 2025. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The U.S. housing market has been ensnared in a growing affordability crisis for decades.

The problem has gotten dramatically worse in recent years. Since 2019, home prices are up 60% nationwide. A record-high 22 million renters are “cost-burdened” – spending more than 30% of their income on housing.

Meanwhile, stagnant wages, limited housing supply and lagging federal assistance have helped leave more than 770,000 Americans homeless.

Despite these varied reasons, Vice President JD Vance has blamed the housing affordability crisis on undocumented immigrants. In August 2025, he attributed rising housing costs to immigration: “You cannot flood the United States of America with … people who have no legal right to be here, have them compete against young American families for homes, and not expect the price to skyrocket.”

Deportations, he argued, would lower housing prices. “Why has housing leveled off over the past six months? I really believe the main driver is … negative net migration.”

Despite Vance’s claims, research shows that immigration is not a substantial cause of unaffordable housing. In fact, studies have found that deportations exacerbate housing shortages through reductions in the construction workforce, which lead to lower production of housing units and higher prices.

From this perspective, its hard to see the administration’s deportation policy as a real effort to solve the housing crisis. Rather, it is using the housing crisis as a way to justify mass deportations to the public.

The current administration’s anti-immigrant housing policy reflects a long history of xenophobia in housing. As a sociologist of housing, I’ve traced the history of racial segregation in housing in Los Angeles County. I have found that the same far-right groups that sought to defeat public housing construction and maintain racially restrictive agreements in post-World War II Los Angeles also advocated to ban immigrants from U.S. housing programs.

Earlier anti-immigrant housing plans

Among the leaders of these efforts was the far-right politician and activist Gerald L.K. Smith. Described in 1976 by historian John Morton Blum as “the most infamous American fascist,” Smith helped bridge the American right’s 1940s conspiratorial and isolationist America First era and its 1960s anti-civil rights era.

Smith traveled the country advocating a Christian nationalist vision for American society, offering a religious justification for anti-communism and opposition to civil rights. He also ran for president unsuccessfully in 1944, 1948 and 1956.

A black and white photo shows a man in a suit, right hand raised, speaking in front of a table.
Gerald L.K. Smith speaks in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 7, 1936.
Library of Congress, CC BY

After settling in Los Angeles in 1953, Smith led Red Scare campaigns – driven by hostility to communism – across the country.

In my research, I found that Smith was an early proponent of anti-immigrant housing policy. His 10 principles included a call to “Stop immigration in order that American jobs and American houses may be safeguarded for American citizens.” Elsewhere he called to “Release housing units occupied by aliens in order that they may be occupied by veterans and other American citizens.”

Smith wasn’t alone. His efforts were part of a broader environment in which public officials and local media worked to stop construction of public housing in Los Angeles in the 1950s, accusing its proponents of communism.

Recent anti-immigrant policy in housing

State and federal policymakers have also incorporated anti-immigrant stances into American housing policy over the past half-century.

The 1980 Housing and Community Development Act was the first federal legislation to specifically bar undocumented immigrants from public housing programs. Welfare reform in 1996 further restricted public housing assistance to only legal permanent residents and those with asylum or refugee status.

Echoing the alien land laws of the late 1800s that prohibited foreign property ownership, policymakers in the 2000s in states such as Pennsylvania and Texas passed laws forcing landlords to check immigration status as a condition of rental – though this was struck down by the courts.

Today, immigrant tenants experience fewer housing rights than citizens. These inequalities fall particularly hard on unauthorized immigrants who experience high rates of housing cost burden, crowding and poor housing conditions.

The Trump administration aims to expand restrictions on immigrants in public housing even further. The Department of Housing and Urban Development is in the process of adopting rules that will evict entire families if even one member is ineligible for assistance based on immigration status. Current law allows those families to live in public housing, while prorating their benefits to account for an ineligible member.

From Smith to Vance, anti-immigrant housing policies have been cast as a way for citizens to get more housing. But they fail to prevent or solve the housing shortage driving the crisis.

For example, the Trump administration’s effort to evict mixed status families from public housing will affect roughly 25,000 households. Setting aside the fact that those families may then be made homeless, that number is only one-tenth the amount of housing that the U.S. has lost due to the defunding and demolishing of public housing since 1990.

A construction worker walks in the frame of a house.
Studies show that deportations can reduce the housing construction workforce, which lowers the number of units built and increases costs.
AP Photo/Laura Rauch

Indeed, many of the Trump administration’s immigration and economic policies are likely to exacerbate the housing crisis. The Trump administration has made deportation a priority and has significantly increased deportation rates compared to recent years, while instituting historically high tariffs on imports.

Deportations reduce the housing construction workforce, lowering the number of units built and increasing costs. And tariffs raise prices on building materials such as lumber, steel and aluminum. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that recent tariffs have raised building costs by US$10,900 per home.

In early 2025, the Department of Government Efficiency canceled or delayed a series of HUD grants for housing assistance programs. And the Trump administration has announced plans for more cuts to the nation’s already insufficient housing assistance budget.

Vance, like Smith before him, presents the issue like a pie, where citizens can get a larger slice only by deporting immigrants. But the reality is that the pie can be bigger: The government can fully fund the housing needs of all Americans for less than it has spent on its other priorities. The recently passed “big, beautiful bill,” for example, allocates more funding to border and interior enforcement per year than key rental assistance programs, public housing and Housing Choice Vouchers allocate for housing.

In Smith’s time, everyday Americans resisted this gambit, speaking out to protest his views. Today, as Smith’s anti-immigration housing ideas have ascended to the national stage, the housing justice community is speaking out against anti-immigrant housing policy and offering an alternative vision of how the U.S. can provide housing for all.

The Conversation

Rahim Kurwa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The Trump administration’s anti-immigrant housing policy reflects a long history of xenophobia in public housing – https://theconversation.com/the-trump-administrations-anti-immigrant-housing-policy-reflects-a-long-history-of-xenophobia-in-public-housing-263860

Despite naysayers and rising costs, data shows that college still pays off for students – and society overall

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Stanley S. Litow, Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University

College graduates earn more immediately after graduation and later on in their careers than high school graduates. DBenitostock/Moment

No industry has perhaps felt the negative effect of a radical shift in federal policy under the second Trump administration more than higher education.

Many American colleges and universities, especially public institutions, have experienced swift and extensive federal cuts to grants, research and other programs in 2025.

Meanwhile, new restrictive immigration policies have prevented many international students from enrolling in public and private universities. Universities and colleges are also facing other various other challenges – like the threat to academic freedom.

These shifts coincide with the broader, increasingly amplified argument that getting a college degree does not matter, after all. A September 2025 Gallup poll shows that while 35% of people rated college as “very important,” another 40% said it is “fairly important,” and 24% said it is “not too important.”

By comparison, 75% of surveyed people in 2010 said that college was “very important,” while 21% said it was “fairly important” and 4% said it is “not too important.”

Still, as a scholar of education, economic development and social issues, I know that there is ample and growing evidence that a college degree is still very much worth it. Graduating from college is directly connected to higher entry-level wages and long-term career success.

A swirl of white papers hang from a ceiling in an ornate room with a chandelier.
College diplomas are seen on display as part of an art exhibition in Grand Central Terminal in New York in 2022.
Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

A growing gap

Some people argue that a college degree does not matter, since there might not be enough jobs for college graduates and other workers, given the growth of artificial intelligence, for example. Some clear evidence shows otherwise.

An estimated 18.4 million workers with a college degree in the U.S. will retire from now through 2032, according to Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce. This is far greater than the 13.8 million workers who will enter the workforce with college degrees during this same time frame.

Meanwhile, an additional 700,00 new jobs that require college degrees – spanning from environmental positions to advanced manufacturing – will be created from now through 2032.

The gap between those expected to leave and enter the workforce with college degrees creates a serious problem. One major question is whether there will be enough people to fill the available jobs that require a college degree.

In 2023, foreign-born people made up 16% of registered nurses in the U.S., though that percentage is higher in certain states, like California. But restrictions on immigration could limit the number of potential nurses able to fill open positions.

Nursing and teaching are two fields expected to grow over the next few decades, and they will require more workers due to retirements.

Other fields, like accounting, engineering, law and many others, are also expected to have more college-educated workers retire than there are new workers to fill their positions.

Worth the cost

The average annual salary of a college graduate from the class of 2023 was US$64,291 in 2024, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers.

The overall average salary for this graduation class one year after they left school marked an increase from the average $60,028 that the class of 2022 earned in 2023, equivalent to $63,850 today.

While there is not available data that offers a direct comparison, full-time, year-round workers ages 25 to 34 with a high school diploma earned $41,800 in median annual earnings in 2022, or $46,100 today.

Overall lifetime earnings for those with college degrees is about about $1.2 million more than people with a high school make, according to the recent Georgetown findings.

People who earn more generally have more money to support their families and contribute to their immediate communities. Their higher taxes also contribute to the U.S. economy, supporting needed services like education, public safety and health care.

People with college degrees are also more likely than those who are not college graduates to vote, volunteer and make charitable donations to help others in need.

College matters for individuals, but it clearly also helps improve the economy.

With 64 public colleges across the state, the State University of New York system is the largest post-secondary network of higher education schools in the country. For every $1 the state of New York invests in SUNY, the SUNY system returns $8.70 to the state in terms of economic growth, according to 2024 findings by the Rockefeller Institute, an independent public policy research organization affiliated with SUNY. And that is only one state.

A gray building is seen with red signs hanging nearby that say 'Stony Brook University.'
The Stony Brook University campus, part of the State University of New York system, is shown in May 2022.
Howard Schnapp/Newsday RM via Getty Images

A new way forward

It isn’t likely that the expected number of college-educated people who will soon retire will suddenly decrease, or that the anticipated number of people entering the workforce will unexpectedly increase.

There are practical reasons why some people do not want to go to college, or cannot attend. Indeed, the percentage of young people enrolled as college undergraduates fell almost 15% from 2010 through 2022.

For one, tuition and fees at private colleges have increased about 32% since 2006, after adjusting for inflation. And in-state tuition and fees at public universities have also grown about 29% since 2006.

The total of federal student loan debt for college has also tripled since 2007. It stood at about $1.84 trillion in 2024.

I believe that in order to ensure enough college-educated people can fill the anticipated work openings in the future, universities and the government should embrace needed changes to increase both enrollment and completion rates.

Artificial intelligence will transform work worldwide, for example, and that shift should be incorporated into higher education curriculum and degrees. Soft skills – like problem-solving, collaboration, presentation and writing skills – will become more important and should be prioritized in the learning process.

I believe that universities should also prioritize experiential education, including paid internships that offer students academic credit. This can help students gain experience that is both accredited and is connected to direct career pathways.

Universities and high schools could also expand how much they offer microcredentials – or short, focused learning programs that offer practical skills in a specific area – so students can connect their education with clear career pathways.

These reforms aren’t easy. They require a commitment to change, and all of this work will require deep partnerships with the government. While that might be a heavy lift currently at the federal level, it is both possible and achievable to make advances on these and other changes at the state level.

American universities and colleges have always been key to preparing the workforce for economic opportunity. At the end of World War II, for example, Columbia University and IBM worked together to help create the academic discipline now called computer science.

This action did more than help one university or one employer. It fueled change across higher education and across private companies and the government, leading to massive economic growth.

Universities have made countless other contributions to strengthen and expand the economy. Considering solutions to some of the challenges that stop students from going to college could help ensure that more students see the value in a college education – and a tangible way for them to connect it to a future career.

The Conversation

Stanley S. Litow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Despite naysayers and rising costs, data shows that college still pays off for students – and society overall – https://theconversation.com/despite-naysayers-and-rising-costs-data-shows-that-college-still-pays-off-for-students-and-society-overall-267612

AI is changing who gets hired – what skills will keep you employed?

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Murugan Anandarajan, Professor of Decision Sciences and Management Information Systems, Drexel University

Success in the age of AI may depend less on technical skills and more on human judgment, adaptability and trust. Malte Mueller/Getty Images

The consulting firm Accenture recently laid off 11,000 employees while expanding its efforts to train workers to use artificial intelligence. It’s a sharp reminder that the same technology driving efficiency is also redefining what it takes to keep a job.

And Accenture isn’t alone. IBM has already replaced hundreds of roles with AI systems, while creating new jobs in sales and marketing. Amazon cut staff even as it expands teams that build and manage AI tools. Across industries, from banks to hospitals and creative companies, workers and managers alike are trying to understand which roles will disappear, which will evolve and which new ones will emerge.

I research and teach at Drexel University’s LeBow College of Business, studying how technology changes work and decision-making. My students often ask how they can stay employable in the age of AI. Executives ask me how to build trust in technology that seems to move faster than people can adapt to it. In the end, both groups are really asking the same thing: Which skills matter most in an economy where machines can learn?

To answer this, I analyzed data from two surveys my colleagues and I conducted over this summer. For the first, the Data Integrity & AI Readiness Survey, we asked 550 companies across the country how they use and invest in AI. For the second, the College Hiring Outlook Survey, we looked at how 470 employers viewed entry-level hiring, workforce development and AI skills in candidates. These studies show both sides of the equation: those building AI and those learning to work with it.

AI is everywhere, but are people ready?

More than half of organizations told us that AI now drives daily decision-making, yet only 38% believe their employees are fully prepared to use it. This gap is reshaping today’s job market. AI isn’t just replacing workers; it’s revealing who’s ready to work alongside it.

Our data also shows a contradiction. While many companies now depend on AI internally, only 27% of recruiters say they’re comfortable with applicants using AI tools for tasks such as writing resumes or researching salary ranges.

In other words, the same tools companies trust for business decisions still raise doubts when job seekers use them for career advancement. Until that view changes, even skilled workers will keep getting mixed messages about what “responsible AI use” really means.

In the Data Integrity & AI Readiness Survey, this readiness gap showed up most clearly in customer-facing and operational jobs such as marketing and sales. These are the same areas where automation is advancing quickly, and layoffs tend to occur when technology evolves faster than people can adapt.

At the same time, we found that many employers haven’t updated their degree or credential requirements. They’re still hiring for yesterday’s resumes while, tomorrow’s work demands fluency in AI. The problem isn’t that people are being replaced by AI; it’s that technology is evolving faster than most workers can adapt.

Fluency and trust: The real foundations of adaptability

Our research suggests that the skills most closely linked with adaptability share one theme, what I call “human-AI fluency.” This means being able to work with smart systems, question their results and keep learning as things change.

Across companies, the biggest challenges lie in expanding AI, ensuring compliance with ethical and regulatory standards and connecting AI to real business goals. These hurdles aren’t about coding; they’re about good judgment.

In my classes, I emphasize that the future will favor people who can turn machine output into useful human insight. I call this digital bilingualism: the ability to fluently navigate both human judgment and machine logic.

What management experts call “reskilling” – or learning new skills to adapt to a new role or major changes in an old one – works best when people feel safe to learn. In our Data Integrity & AI Readiness Survey, organizations with strong governance and high trust were nearly twice as likely to report gains in performance and innovation. The data suggests that when people trust their leaders and systems, they’re more willing to experiment and learn from mistakes. In that way, trust turns technology from something to fear into something to learn from, giving employees the confidence to adapt.

According to the College Hiring Outlook Survey, about 86% of employers now offer internal training or online boot camps, yet only 36% say AI-related skills are important for entry-level roles. Most training still focuses on traditional skills rather than those needed for emerging AI jobs.

The most successful companies make learning part of the job itself. They build opportunities to learn into real projects and encourage employees to experiment. I often remind leaders that the goal isn’t just to train people to use AI but to help them think alongside it. This is how trust becomes the foundation for growth, and how reskilling helps retain employees.

The new rules of hiring

In my view, the companies leading in AI aren’t just cutting jobs; they’re redefining them. To succeed, I believe companies will need to hire people who can connect technology with good judgment, question what AI produces, explain it clearly and turn it into business value.

In companies that are putting AI to work most effectively, hiring isn’t just about resumes anymore. What matters is how people apply traits like curiosity and judgment to intelligent tools. I believe these trends are leading to new hybrid roles such as AI translators, who help decision-makers understand what AI insights mean and how to act on them, and digital coaches, who teach teams to work alongside intelligent systems. Each of these roles connects human judgment with machine intelligence, showing how future jobs will blend technical skills with human insight.

That blend of judgment and adaptability is the new competitive advantage. The future won’t just reward the most technical workers, but those who can turn intelligence – human or artificial – into real-world value.

The Conversation

Murugan Anandarajan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. AI is changing who gets hired – what skills will keep you employed? – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-changing-who-gets-hired-what-skills-will-keep-you-employed-267376

Trump’s ‘golden age’ economic message undercut by his desire for much lower interest rates – which typically signal a weak jobs market

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Joshua Stillwagon, Associate Professor of Economics, Babson College

President Donald Trump has said he believes the U.S. economy has entered a ‘golden age’ on his watch. AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

President Donald Trump seems to want to have it both ways on the U.S. economy.

On the one hand, he recently said the economy is in its “golden age” and referred to the U.S. as the “hottest country anywhere in the world.”

Yet at the same time, he has outright demanded that the Federal Reserve sharply slash interest rates to fuel economic activity. And his recently handpicked governor, Stephen Miran, has led the charge in pushing for a bigger cut than preferred by his new colleagues at the Fed.

When an economy is strong, central banks typically don’t cut interest rates and may even raise them to avoid spurring inflation. And so to support his argument for large cuts, Miran has played up “downside risks” to the economy and a weakening labor market, contrasting with Trump’s talk of a “golden age.”

Trump and Miran also seem to be ignoring the problem of inflation, which the president has said “has been defeated” and Miran considers close enough to the Fed’s target of 2%. Yet, inflation remains high and has been picking back up in recent months – one of the core reasons the Fed has taken a gradual approach to lowering interest rates.

I’m a macroeconomist, which means I study big-picture factors affecting an economy, such as interest rates.

It’s well known that lower rates spur faster growth, and of course all presidents want a stronger economy on their watch. But the Fed’s job when it sets interest rates is to deal with whatever reality the data shows – and make decisions accordingly.

Is the economy hot or not?

In the simplest terms, the Fed raises interest rates when the economy is “hot,” or inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, and lowers them when there are concerns about unemployment.

At its most recent meeting, in September, the Fed lowered rates a quarter of a point, citing slowing jobs growth, and increased economic uncertainty. Trump nominee Miran was the only one of the 12 members of the Fed’s policy-setting committee to instead vote for a more aggressive half-point cut.

The only credible rationale for that large of an interest rate cut, in the face of still-high inflation, is by believing the labor market is incredibly weak. According to the Fed’s preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures index, inflation has been accelerating all summer and was 2.7% at the end of August, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

There’s no doubt jobs growth has slowed considerably in recent months, but enough to completely ignore the risk of driving inflation higher? At this point at least, the Fed doesn’t think so.

And if the economy were in fact running hot, as the president claims, the Fed would have little choice but to keep rates flat or raise them, especially given elevated inflation.

a man in a suit speaks in front of a microphone with a few people sitting in the background
Stephen Miran, who was recently nominated to the Federal Open Market Committee, has been pushing for much larger rate cuts than his colleagues.
AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib

Risks of following political whims

This situation gets at the heart of why central bank independence matters.

Trump’s efforts to influence the Federal Reserve have not been subtle and break with Congress’ intention to insulate the Fed from political manipulation. Besides pressing for big rate cuts, he has tried to fire a member of the Board of Governors over questionable allegations and mused about removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The risks of following the wishes of a president in the face of what the data shows were starkly demonstrated in 2021, when Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fired the head of the country’s central bank. The central banker was pushing rates higher to tame inflation, which was at about 20%, but Erdogan demanded they be lowered. In response, Turkey’s lira plunged to record lows and inflation soared to over 70% in 2022.

Something similar could happen in the U.S. if Trump continues down the same path of meddling with the Fed. As a sign of how much Wall Street worries about this risk, a recent study estimated that if Trump followed through on his threat to fire Powell, the stock market could lose an estimated US$1 trillion as a result.

That’s because the Fed’s credibility rests on its ability to make decisions driven by economic evidence, not political expedience. That independence means policymakers must weigh data on inflation, jobs and growth rather than election cycles or partisan demands.

Justifying deeper rate cuts

Looking ahead to the Fed’s next meeting Oct. 28-29, policymakers face a delicate balancing act. With inflation still running above target and signs of slowing jobs growth, it needs to lower rates enough to prevent a downturn but not so low that inflation spirals out of control.

Traders are putting near-100% odds of two more quarter-point cuts this year, one on Oct. 29 and another in December. This would bring the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2025, down from 4%-4.25% now.

Based on Miran’s own interest rate projections, he’s likely to again push for a larger cut of a half-point or more at both meetings, as he believes the Fed’s benchmark rate should be below 3% by the end of the year.

To me, as an economist, the only way a Fed acting independently could reasonably justify such a significant cut in rates in the next few months is if the unemployment rate begins rising steadily, with the economy clearly at risk of slipping into a recession.

The Conversation

Joshua Stillwagon was a long-time organizer and judge for an academic competition hosted at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and has presented research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

ref. Trump’s ‘golden age’ economic message undercut by his desire for much lower interest rates – which typically signal a weak jobs market – https://theconversation.com/trumps-golden-age-economic-message-undercut-by-his-desire-for-much-lower-interest-rates-which-typically-signal-a-weak-jobs-market-266969

What’s the difference between ghosts and demons? Books, folklore and history reflect society’s supernatural beliefs

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Penelope Geng, Associate Professor of English, Macalester College

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskidsus@theconversation.com.


What’s the difference between ghosts and demons? – Landon W., age 15, The Colony, Texas


Belief in the spirit world is a key part of many faiths and religions. A 2023 survey of 26 countries revealed that about half the respondents believed in the existence of angels, demons, fairies and ghosts. In the United States, a 2020 poll found that about half of Americans believe ghosts and demons are real.

While the subject of demons and ghosts can inspire dread, the concepts themselves can be confusing: Is there a difference between the two?

Historically, communities have understood the supernatural according to their religious and spiritual traditions. For example, the terrifying ghosts of Pu Songling’s “Strange Tales from a Chinese Studio” operate differently than those haunting the works of William Shakespeare, even though both writers lived in the 17th century.

Engraving of three men agog at the appearance of a ghostly man in armor
‘Hamlet, Horatio, Marcellus and the Ghost,’ from Shakespeare’s ‘Hamlet,’ Act 1, Scene 4.
Robert Thew/Gertrude and Thomas Jefferson Mumford Collection via The Met

Literary representations of ghosts and demons often reflect the anxieties of communities experiencing social, religious or political upheaval. As a scholar of early modern English literature, my research focuses on how everyday people in 16th- and 17th-century Europe used storytelling to navigate major social changes. This era, often called the Renaissance, was punctuated by the establishment of mass media through printing, the global spread of colonization and the emergence of modern science and medicine.

Digging into the literary archive can reveal people’s ideas about demons and ghosts – and what made them different.

Martin Luther and the Reformation

On Oct. 31, 1517, Martin Luther, an ex-law student and former monk, boldly published his Ninety-Five Theses. In it, he rejected the Catholic Church’s promise that monetary payment to the church could reduce the amount of time one’s soul spent in purgatory. What began as a local protest in Wittenberg, Germany, soon swept all the major European powers into a life and death struggle over religious reform. Towns were besieged, landscapes scorched, villages pillaged.

This period, called the Reformation, led to the establishment of new Christian denominations. Among these Protestant churches’ early teachings was the edict that purgatory did not exist and souls could not return to Earth to haunt the living. Protestant reformers insisted that after death, one’s soul was immediately judged. The virtuous flew up to God in heaven; the sinful burned in hell with the Devil.

According to Protestants, ghosts were invented by Catholic priests to scare people into obedience. For example, the English translator of Ludwig Lavater’s 1572 book “Of Ghostes and Spirites Walking by Night” insists ghosts are the “falsehood of Monkes, or illusions of devils, franticke imaginations, or some other frivolous and vaine perswasions.” Should you ever encounter an “apparition,” you must call it out for what it truly is: a devil pretending to be a ghost.

Page of a book reading 'The Tragic History of the Life and Death of Doctor Faustus' with an image of a man holding a book standing in a circle of runes summoning a demon
Title page of Christopher Marlowe’s ‘Doctor Faustus.’
Iohn Wright/Wikimedia Commons

Christopher Marlowe’s play “Doctor Faustus” comments on these debates. Written in the 1580s for a primarily Protestant audience, the play features a scene in which Dr. Faustus and his devil companion, Mephistopheles, trick the pope by snatching away his meal. A bewildered member of the papal court concludes “it may be some ghost … come to beg a pardon of your Holiness.” The audience knows full well, however, that these pranks are committed by the necromancer and his demon.

Ghostly haunting

In spite of Protestantism’s official stance against ghosts, belief in them persisted in the popular imagination.

Archival records show that ordinary people held fast to popular beliefs despite what their religious authorities decreed. For example, the casebook of Richard Napier, an astrological physician, reports several cases of “spirit” hauntings, including that of a young mother named Catherine Wells who had been “vexed … with a spirit” for three continuous years.

Popular plays provide additional evidence. Shakespeare’s “Hamlet” opens with a midnight visitation by the ghost of Hamlet’s father, telling his son he cannot rest in peace until his murderer is brought to justice. Ghostly victims seeking justice appear in other Shakespearean plays, including “Macbeth” and “Richard III.”

Cheap print, a form of common media, capitalized on the public’s interest in the paranormal. Part entertainment, part journalism, cheap print was read by all sorts of people. A 1662 pamphlet titled “A strange and wonderfull discovery of a horrid and cruel murther [murder]” describes Isabel Binnington’s unsettling encounter with the ghost of Robert Eliot. In her testimonial, she claims that Eliot’s ghost promised he would never hurt her. What he wanted was simply for her to hear his story: He had been murdered for his coins in the very house she occupied.

A 1730 broadside ballad called “The Suffolk Miracle” – still performed today – tells the tale of young lovers parted by an overprotective father. After the daughter is whisked away, her beloved dies of a broken heart. When his ghost later appears to her, she “joy’d to see her heart’s delight.”

Demonic possession

While reformed Protestant thinkers rejected the existence of ghosts, they enthusiastically accepted the reality of devils.

Reports of demonic possession were popular. Before his ascension to the English throne, King James VI of Scotland published a literary treatise on demonology in 1597. He argues that “assaultes of Sathan are most certainly practized” and “detestable slaves of the Devill” live among us.

Engraving of a man surrounded by devilish creatures tearing at and beating him
‘Saint Anthony Tormented by Demons,’ 1470–74.
Martin Schongauer/Rogers Fund via The Met

The diaries of English Puritans offer further proof that beliefs about devilish encounters were common. In the 1650s, the Calvinist preacher Thomas Hall insisted that his godliness attracted the attention of Satan like a moth to a candle. From an early age, he complained, he was subjected to “Satanicall buffettings” and terrifying dreams. He believed, however, that surviving demonic temptation demonstrated his unwavering devotion to God.

Distinguishing ghosts from demons

Based on the literature, what can we conclude about how people saw ghosts and demons?

Early modern people often represented ghosts as sad and pitiable. They were depicted as the spiritual remainder of a recently deceased person, haunting their friends and kin – or, occasionally, a stranger. They retained some of their humanity and were psychically connected to a place, such as their former home, or to a person, such as their most cherished companion.

Demons, by contrast, were almost always malevolent tricksters who served the Devil. Demons lacked knowledge of what it meant to be human. Hell was the demons’ lair. Early modern texts describe them visiting the earthly plane to corrupt, possess or tempt humans to commit self-harm or violence against others.

Faustus getting dragged to hell at the Globe Theatre.

Then and now, stories of ghosts and demons have provoked fear and wonder. Tales of the supernatural have inspired the imagination of kings, theologians, playwrights and everyday people.

Approaching the topic of the otherworldly with intellectual humility can inspire deeper curiosity about cultures across space and time. As Hamlet muses to his friend after meeting the ghost of his father, “There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”


Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

The Conversation

Penelope Geng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What’s the difference between ghosts and demons? Books, folklore and history reflect society’s supernatural beliefs – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-difference-between-ghosts-and-demons-books-folklore-and-history-reflect-societys-supernatural-beliefs-250997

An Indigenous approach shows how changing the clocks for Daylight Saving Time runs counter to human nature – and nature itself

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Rachelle Wilson Tollemar, Lecturer in Spanish Environmental Cultural Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Humans and nature can find balance in each other. timnewman/E+ via Getty Images

It is that time again. Time to wonder: Why do we turn the clocks forward and backward twice a year? Academics, scientists, politicians, economists, employers, parents – and just about everyone else you will interact with this week – are likely debating a wide range of reasons for and against Daylight Saving Time.

But the reason is right there in the name: It’s an effort to “save” daylight hours, which some express as an opportunity for people to “make more use of” time when it’s light outside.

But as an Indigenous person who studies environmental humanities, this sort of effort, and the debate about it, misses a key ecological perspective.

Biologically speaking, it is normal, and even critical, for nature to do more during the brighter months and to do less during the darker ones. Animals go into hibernation, plants into dormancy.

Humans are intimately interconnected with, interdependent on, and interrelated to nonhuman beings, rhythms and environments. Indigenous knowledges, which despite their complex, diverse and plural forms, amazingly cohere in reminding humans that we too are an equal part of nature. Like trees and flowers, we are beings who also need winter to rest and summer to bloom.

As far as we humans know, we are the only species that chooses to fight against our biological presets, regularly changing our clocks, miserably dragging ourselves into and out of bed at unnatural hours.

The reason, many scholars agree, is that capitalism teaches humans that they are separate from, and superior to, nature – like the point on top of a pyramid. That, and I argue, that capitalism wants people to work the same number of hours year-round, no matter the season. This mindset runs counter to the way Indigenous people have lived for thousands of years.

A group of people stand around an open circle on an island, as the Sun rises behind a bridge across the water.
A large gathering of people celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day in 2024, by watching the Sun rise over San Francisco Bay.
Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

The nature of time and work

Indigenous views of the world are not the pyramids or lines of capitalism but the circles and cycles of life.

Concretely, time correlates with terrestrial and celestial changes. Historic records and oral interviews document that in traditional Indigenous cultures of the past, human activity was scheduled according to nature’s recurring patterns. So for example, a meeting might have been scheduled not at 4 p.m. on Thursday, but rather at the next full moon. Everyone knew well in advance when that would arise and could plan accordingly.

Such an acute sensitivity to nature’s calendar has symbolic meaning, too. To look up and see the Moon in the sky at night is to see the same Moon that someone once saw centuries ago and someone else will hopefully see centuries into the future. Time is interwoven with nature in a sense that far exceeds Western understanding. It embodies past, present and future all at once. Time is life.

The 2015 movie ‘El Abrazo de la Serpiente (Embrace of the Serpent)’ examines the relationship between Indigenous cultures of knowing and colonizing forces.

In this Indigenous context, Daylight Saving Time is nonsensical – if not outright comical. Time can’t be changed any more than a clock’s hands can grab the Sun and move its position in the sky. The Sun will continue to cycle at its gravitational will for generations – and economic systems – to come.

Like time, Indigenous approaches to work are also more expansive than the capitalist economy’s. They validate and value all life-sustaining activities as work. Taking care of oneself, of the sick, of the elderly, of the young, of the land, or even merely resting, for example, are equally valuable activities.

That’s because the objective of most Indigenous economies is not to increase an economist-invented measurement of production by working from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., Monday through Friday. Rather, their goal is to find and generate a holistic well-being for all.

Daylight Saving Time is exclusively designed for 9-to-5 workers. It attempts to boost economic activity by giving them, and them alone, more light. Think about it: Care workers, who are predominantly women, work beyond daylight hours year-round. Where is their temporal accommodation? Though likely not malicious or even purposeful, the political intervention of Daylight Saving Time ignores the massive workforce that operates on the periphery of the mainstream economy. In some ways, it reinforces the discriminatory idea that only some workers are worthy of economic recognition and accommodation.

In this sense, Daylight Saving Time raises the question: Does the economy really need that extra hour of sunshine and worker productivity? Traditional economic philosophies would likely answer no out of principle; they may see Daylight Saving Time as trespassing the biophysical, ethical and sacred limits of the world ecology by encouraging cultures of overwork and overconsumption.

A person swipes a card in a machine on a wall.
A worker swipes a time card to clock in at the beginning of their shift.
halbergman/E+ via Getty Images

The working of time and nature

Since the invention of the clock, capitalism has increasingly treated time as an inanimate object largely independent of the environment.

While the rest of nature rises and slumbers to lunar and solar cycles, humans work and sleep to the resetting of their artificial clocks.

In their 2016 book “The Slow Professor,” humanities scholars Maggie Berg and Barbara K. Seeber connect this objectification of time to an inhumane culture of work.

Modern workers, they write, are increasingly expected to treat time as a numerical asset that can be managed, measured and controlled. Time for rest and relaxation has no countable home in the capitalist economy of life.

There are certainly practical benefits to using time to measure and monitor economic activities – such as knowing the precise time a meeting is scheduled to start and end. But Berg’s and Seeber’s work reveals how that reasonable practicality has been subverted to hold workers captive within what I argue is an unsustainable, unnatural and exploitative environment. Work time and life time have blurred into one.

In capitalism, work is expected to grow infinitely, despite existing within a finite world inhabited by limited beings. At a time when human activity depletes the world’s ecology – rather than sustaining it as it once did – this around-the-clock approach to work is simply incompatible with nature.

In sum, Daylight Saving Time reproduces the same destructive logic that has led humans and nonhumans into the present socio-ecological crises. Disobeying and dominating the laws, rhythms and shape of nature, as seen in the seasonal exploitation of human energy and labor via Daylight Saving Time, perpetuates the unparalleled social and environmental decline uniquely characteristic to the current capitalist era.

Looking backwards, progressing forward

Unlike the relatively recent inception of capitalism, Indigenous wisdom espouses a set of philosophies as old as time. It reminds humans that there are other ways of interacting with time, work and the environment – ways that existed before capitalism and that can exist afterward, too.

In my view, people might be better off if the discussion about changing the clocks in the fall and spring wasn’t about how much time we can “make use of” or how much daylight we might “save,” but rather about reducing the number of hours we are expected to be made useful – and profitable – to secure a more just and sustainable existence for all.

The Conversation

Rachelle Wilson Tollemar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. An Indigenous approach shows how changing the clocks for Daylight Saving Time runs counter to human nature – and nature itself – https://theconversation.com/an-indigenous-approach-shows-how-changing-the-clocks-for-daylight-saving-time-runs-counter-to-human-nature-and-nature-itself-253097

La selección: ÍNSULA, de Ciencia y Ficción

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Lorena Sánchez, Responsable de Eventos. Editora de Ciencia y Tecnología, The Conversation

Interior del Gabinete Literario de Las Palmas. Josu Ozkaritz/Shutterstock

Del 4 al 7 de noviembre, The Conversation y el Gabinete Literario de las Palmas de Gran Canaria celebran la tercera edición del festival de ciencia ÍNSULA que este año tiene como lema “De Ciencia y Ficción”.

ÍNSULA acogerá misiones de defensa planetaria, seres vivos capaces de colonizar hábitats extremos, drones de mar vigilantes de los océanos, exoplanetas, el apocalipsis de la Tierra como la conocemos…

Una veintena de expertos y expertas en Tierra, Océano y Cielo (temáticas del festival) participan en charlas de divulgación para todos los públicos.

Niños y niñas encontrarán talleres inspirados en la ciencia ficción, aprovechando su capacidad para despertar vocaciones. Habrá cine en el Museo Elder y Poema del Mar y música en directo en el Gabinete, con “Sonidos de ciencia”, un espectáculo musical creado por el compositor y musicólogo Juan Manuel Marrero.

Las Conversaciones de ÍNSULA

El festival de ciencia ÍNSULA se inaugura el día 4 de noviembre con la conversación entre la bióloga canaria Ana Crespo y la periodista científica de The Conversation Lorena Sánchez. La charla tiene por título “Un viaje a Marte” y abordará el camino de la experta hasta convertirse en la primera mujer en la historia presidenta de la Real Academia de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales de España (RAC).

Si hay una distopía que ha capturado la imaginación de escritores y cineastas es la de un planeta al borde del colapso. ¿Podemos salvar la Tierra del cambio climático? El investigador del CSIC Fernando Valladares contará en su conversación con Elena Sanz, directora de The Conversation, cómo protegernos desde la ciencia.

Julia de León Cruz, astrofísica en el IAC, desvelará “Todo lo que sabemos (y lo que no) sobre los enigmáticos visitantes interestelares”, entre ellos 3I/ATLAS, el tercer objeto interestelar que ha venido a visitarnos, tras ʻOumuamua y 2I/Borisov.

¿Qué poder tecnológico elegir para salvar el océano? José Joaquín Hernández Brito, director de PLOCAN, invita a imaginar futuros posibles de la humanidad bajo el agua. Hablará de sensores autónomos, bioplásticos, restauración de corales con impresión 3D, IA para vigilancia marítima y otros superpoderes que ha desarrollado la ciencia.

En las tardes de ÍNSULA, expertos del IAC, la ULPG y la ULL participan en charlas divulgativas en formato “Chachaescucha”. Habrá cazadores de exoplanetas, expertos en mejora genética que buscan superpeces e incluso una guía extraterrestre para entender la Tierra. Un total de 15 charlas de veinte minutos repartidas en las tardes de ÍNSULA.

El festival de ciencia ÍNSULA, que dirige Rafael Robaina, cuenta de nuevo con el apoyo del Ayuntamiento de Las palmas de Gran Canaria, y un comité asesor de excelencia compuesto por la ULPGC, la ULL, el IAC, el Museo Elder y Poema del Mar en el que está integrado The Conversation.

El guión del futuro se escribe desde la ciencia.

The Conversation

ref. La selección: ÍNSULA, de Ciencia y Ficción – https://theconversation.com/la-seleccion-insula-de-ciencia-y-ficcion-268313

Le commerce façonne de nouvelles relations de pouvoir à l’échelle mondiale : quelles conséquences pour l’Afrique ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Arno J. van Niekerk, Senior lecturer in Economics, University of the Free State

Au cours des deux dernières décennies, la puissance économique, les flux commerciaux, le leadership technologique et même la demande des consommateurs se sont progressivement déplacés de l’Occident vers les pays d’Asie. Ce basculement redessine la carte économique mondiale. Il soulève également des questions pressantes sur la coopération, la concurrence et l’inclusion dans un monde multipolaire. Arno van Niekerk, professeur d’économie et de finance, répond à nos questions sur ces enjeux, qu’il explore dans un nouvel ouvrage, West to East: A New Global Economy in the Making?


Quels sont les signes du basculement de l’Occident vers l’Asie ?

Les Brics, largement tirés par la Chine et l’Inde, ont dépassé les pays du G7 en termes de pourcentage dans le PIB mondial en 2018. Comme le montre la figure 1, la contribution des Brics a augmenté de 32,33 % du PIB mondial à 35,43 % en 2024 (après avoir été de 21,37 % en 2000).

Figure 1

La part du G7 a de son côté diminué à 29,64 %, contre 43,28 % en 2000.

C’est un tournant historique : le centre de gravité économique, longtemps situé en Occident, s’est déplacé vers les économies émergentes.

Le même mouvement s’observe dans le commerce mondial, surtout au niveau des exportations. En 2024, les données dont nous disposons montrent que les pays du Brics+ (les 11 membres, avec les nouveaux entrants) représentaient 28 % des exportations mondiales, presque à égalité avec le G7 (32 %). Cela montre que la Chine et l’Inde ne se contentent plus d’accroître leur production : elles s’intègrent dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales, gagnent en productivité et améliorent le niveau de vie de leurs populations.

Comme le montre la figure 2, la part des exportations mondiales de marchandises des pays du G7 est, par ailleurs, passée de 45,1 % en 2000 à 28,9 % en 2023. De leur côté, les pays du Brics+ ont vu leur proportion passer de 10,7 % (2000) à 23,3 % (2023).

Figure 2

D’autres indicateurs confirment cette évolution :

  • Plus des deux tiers des réserves mondiales de devises étrangères se trouvent désormais en Asie. Elles sont notamment logées en Chine (3 000 milliards de dollars américains), au Japon, en Inde et en Corée du Sud. Ces réserves importantes indiquent que ces pays tirent davantage de revenus de leurs exportations, des flux d’investissement et des transferts de fonds qu’ils n’en dépensent pour leurs importations et le remboursement de leur dette.

  • La Chine a supplanté les puissances occidentales comme principal investisseur à l’étranger dans les pays en développement. Grâce à son initiative « Belt and Road » (la nouvelle route de la soie) — qui implique plus de 150 pays —, elle est devenue la première source mondiale d’investissements directs étrangers.

  • L’Asie abrite désormais plus de la moitié de la classe moyenne mondiale, ce qui stimule la croissance de la demande. L’Asie représentait plus de 50 % des dépenses de consommation mondiales, en 2023, contre moins de 20 % enregistrés en 1990.

  • La Chine, l’Inde, la Corée du Sud et le Japon dominent désormais les secteurs de la technologie financière, de l’intelligence artificielle et de la 5G. La Chine dépose désormais chaque année plus de brevets internationaux que les États-Unis et l’Union européenne réunis. Plus précisément, la rivalité technologique entre les États-Unis et la Chine illustre bien ce changement de leadership technologique.

Que nous apprend cette évolution sur la coopération économique ?

Les pays de l’Orient et de l’Ouest doivent redoubler d’efforts de manière concertée. D’abord, pour apaiser les tensions géoéconomiques croissantes. Ensuite, pour orienter le monde vers une vision commune d’un développement durable qui profite à tous.

Cette coopération doit aller au-delà des accords commerciaux et d’investissement traditionnels. Elle doit être pensée de manière à réduire les inégalités, renforcer la résilience et intégrer la durabilité au cœur des politiques économiques.

Cinq domaines principaux peuvent servir de cadre à cette collaboration internationale :

Il convient de promouvoir des cadres politiques coordonnés à travers :

  • une coopération fiscale sous la forme d’un impôt minimum mondial sur les sociétés afin de garantir des recettes équitables pour les investissements sociaux;

  • une harmonisation des protections sociales et du travail grâce à des normes communes afin de prévenir l’exploitation;

  • l’alignement du développement durable en intégrant les objectifs de développement durable, les objectifs de l’accord de Paris et les principes des droits de l’homme dans les accords commerciaux et financiers.

Il faudra égalemement avoir un commerce et un investissement inclusifs à travers :

  • des accords commerciaux équitables pour garantir que l’accès au marché profite aux petits producteurs, aux femmes et aux communautés marginalisées;

  • la mise en place des chaînes de valeur régionales qui permettent aux pays en développement de monter en gamme au lieu de se cantonner à fournir des matières premières;

  • la conception de cadres de coopération pour le transfert de technologies, en particulier pour le partage des technologies vertes et numériques à des coûts abordables.

Il faut instaurer une coopération financière à travers :

  • les mécanismes de financement innovants, tels que les obligations vertes et sociales, les financements mixtes et les fonds climatiques, doivent être rendus accessibles aux pays à faible revenu.

  • la mise en place des dispositifs de réduction et de restructuration de la dette qui sont nécessaires pour libérer des marges de manœuvre budgétaires au profit des dépenses sociales.

  • l’insauration de mécanismes coopératifs pour l’allègement et la restructuration de la dette. Cela permettra de remédier à la dette insoutenable qui évince les dépenses sociales.

  • la mise en place de partenariats public-privé pour l’inclusion afin de cofinancer les infrastructures sociales: l’éducation, la santé et l’accès au numérique.

Il faut renforcer les capacités par des plateformes de recherche communes pour permettre une collaboration accrue en matière d’adaptation au changement climatique, de sécurité alimentaire et de numérisation inclusive. Il faut renforcer la coopération Sud-Sud et triangulaire, afin d’échanger les expériences entre pays en développement, avec l’appui d’institutions multilatérales. Les programmes de mobilité de la main-d’œuvre gérés par le biais de partenariats de compétences profiteront à la fois aux pays d’origine et aux pays d’accueil.

Il est essentiel de réformer les institutions mondiales telles que la Banque mondiale, le Fonds monétaire international et l’Organisation mondiale du commerce afin de donner aux économies en développement une voix plus forte au sein de ces institutions.

Que devraient faire les pays africains ?

La Chine, l’Inde et d’autres puissances de l’Est se sont imposées comme de véritables rivales de l’Occident, tant sur le plan économique, militaire que dans le domaine de la gouvernance mondiale. Dans ce nouveau paysage, l’Afrique occupe une position centrale. Elle a la possibilité de devenir un acteur majeur de la future économie mondiale.

Plusieurs priorités s’imposent, surtout pour la prochaine décennie.

La première consisterait à mettre en place une infrastructure numérique et à renforcer les capacités technologiques et d’intelligence artificielle. Ces éléments sont devenus des moteurs essentiels de la compétitivité. Sans infrastructures ni compétences, les pays restent confinés au rôle de fournisseurs de matières premières.

Les pays africains devraient donc :

  • adopter une stratégie nationale en matière de haut débit et de centres de données (public-privé), et des mesures incitatives pour attirer la construction de centres de données régionaux;

  • investir davantage dans les formations en sciences, technologie, ingénierie, mathématiques et intelligence artificielle. Citons par exemple les bootcamps accélérés, les TIC dans les écoles secondaires et le soutien aux start-ups locales spécialisées dans l’IA.

Deuxièmement, les gouvernements doivent continuer à garantir les investissements dans les infrastructures numériques, telles que la fibre optique, les réseaux 5G et les centres de données. Ils pourraient éventuellement tirer part de la Route de la soie chinoise numérique, qui promeut des alternatives technologiques abordables.

Troisièmement, l’Afrique du Sud et les autres pays africains doivent donner la priorité à l’inclusion économique et au développement durable. Pour ce faire, il faut instaurer un développement économique inclusif. Cela devrait être le moteur principal de leur stratégie de développement.

Quatrièmement, les gouvernements africains doivent manœuvrer de manière stratégique entre les changements géopolitiques et les alliances. Ils constituent des sphères d’influence clés dans la concurrence numérique entre les États-Unis et la Chine, et devraient utiliser cette position à leur avantage. Pour ce faire, les gouvernements africains devraient :

  • utiliser leur appartenance au Brics+ de manière coordonnée pour faire progresser leurs intérêts nationaux;

  • favoriser la coopération Sud-Sud en renforçant le commerce, les transferts technologiques et les alliances financières avec d’autres pays en développement d’Asie, d’Afrique et d’Amérique latine. Il convient ainsi de mettre davantage l’accent sur des initiatives telles que le Forum sur la coopération sino-africaine.

  • renforcer la diplomatie commerciale et diversifier les marchés afin de pouvoir vendre davantage de biens et de services sur les marchés asiatiques, européens et intra-africains;

  • maximiser les investissements extérieurs en obtenant des investissements, des infrastructures et des partenariats numériques tant des États-Unis que de la Chine. Cela permettra aux pays africains de tirer parti de la concurrence technologique mondiale.

The Conversation

Arno J. van Niekerk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Le commerce façonne de nouvelles relations de pouvoir à l’échelle mondiale : quelles conséquences pour l’Afrique ? – https://theconversation.com/le-commerce-faconne-de-nouvelles-relations-de-pouvoir-a-lechelle-mondiale-quelles-consequences-pour-lafrique-267457