Répression en Iran : pourquoi les forces de sécurité visent les yeux des manifestants

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Firouzeh Nahavandi, Professeure émérite, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

En Iran, les manifestants, et spécialement les manifestantes, font l’objet d’une répression extrêmement violente, avec cette spécificité que les tirs prennent souvent pour cible leurs yeux. En aveuglant l’« ennemi » qui ose les contester, les autorités inscrivent leur action dans la longue histoire du pays.


Au cours des mobilisations iraniennes de ces dernières années, et plus encore depuis celles du mouvement Femme, Vie, Liberté déclenché en 2022, la fréquence élevée de blessures oculaires infligées aux manifestants interpelle les observateurs. Femmes, jeunes, étudiants, parfois simples passants, perdent un œil – voire la vue – à la suite de tirs de chevrotine ou de projectiles à courte distance. Une pratique des forces de sécurité que l’on observe de nouveau actuellement : l’avocate Shirin Ebadi, prix Nobel de la paix en 2003, a ainsi estimé ce 9 janvier que depuis le début des protestations en ce début d’année, « au moins 400 personnes auraient été hospitalisées à Téhéran pour des blessures aux yeux causées par des tirs ».

Ces violences ne relèvent pas de simples bavures. Elles s’inscrivent dans une logique politique qui trouve un écho dans l’histoire longue du pouvoir en Iran, où viser les yeux signifie symboliquement retirer à la victime toute capacité d’existence politique.

Le regard comme attribut du pouvoir

Dans la culture politique iranienne prémoderne, le regard est indissociable de l’autorité. Voir, c’est savoir ; voir, c’est juger ; voir, c’est gouverner. Cette conception traverse la littérature et l’imaginaire politiques iraniens. À titre d’exemple, dans le Shahnameh (Livre des rois), de Ferdowsi (Xe siècle), la cécité constitue un marqueur narratif de déchéance politique et cosmique : elle signale la perte du farr (gloire divine), principe de légitimation du pouvoir, et opère comme une disqualification symbolique durable de l’exercice de la souveraineté. Être aveuglé, c’est être déchu.

Dans le Shahnameh, l’aveuglement d’Esfandiyar par Rostam constitue une scène fondatrice de l’imaginaire politique iranien : en visant les yeux, le récit associe explicitement la perte de la vue à la disqualification du pouvoir et à la fin de toute prétention souveraine.

Rustam aveugle Esfandiar avec une flèche (gouache opaque et or sur papier), non daté. Cliquer pour zoomer.
San Diego Museum of Art/Bridgeman Images

Historiquement, l’aveuglement a été utilisé comme instrument de neutralisation politique. Il a permis d’écarter un rival – prince ou dignitaire – sans verser le sang, acte considéré comme sacrilège lorsqu’il touchait les élites. Un aveugle n’était pas exécuté : il était rayé de l’ordre politique.

Le chah Abbas Iᵉʳ (au pouvoir de 1587 à sa mort en 1629) fait aveugler plusieurs de ses fils et petits-fils soupçonnés de complot ou susceptibles de contester la succession.

En 1742, Nader Shah ordonne l’aveuglement de son fils et héritier Reza Qoli Mirza, acte emblématique des pratiques de neutralisation politique dans l’Iran prémoderne.

De l’aveuglement rituel à l’aveuglement sécuritaire : pourquoi les forces de sécurité iraniennes visent-elles si souvent les yeux des manifestants ?

La République islamique ne revendique pas l’aveuglement comme châtiment. Mais la répétition massive de blessures oculaires lors des répressions contemporaines révèle une continuité symbolique.

Autrefois rare, ciblé et assumé, l’aveuglement est aujourd’hui diffus, nié par les autorités, produit par des armes dites « non létales » et rarement sanctionné.

La fonction politique demeure pourtant comparable : neutraliser sans tuer, marquer les corps pour dissuader, empêcher toute réémergence de la contestation.

Dans l’Iran contemporain, le regard est devenu une arme politique. Les manifestants filment, documentent, diffusent. Les images circulent, franchissent les frontières et fragilisent le récit officiel. Toucher les yeux, c’est donc empêcher de voir et de faire voir : empêcher de filmer, d’identifier, de témoigner.

La cible n’est pas seulement l’individu, mais la chaîne du regard reliant la rue iranienne à l’opinion publique internationale.

Contrairement à l’aveuglement ancien, réservé aux élites masculines, la violence oculaire actuelle frappe majoritairement des femmes et des jeunes. Le regard féminin, visible, autonome, affranchi du contrôle idéologique, devient politiquement insupportable pour un régime fondé sur la maîtrise du corps et du visible.

Un continuum de violences visibles

La répression actuelle, qui fait suite aux protestations massives déclenchées fin décembre 2025, s’est intensifiée avec une coupure d’Internet à l’échelle nationale, une tentative manifeste d’entraver la visibilité des violences infligées aux manifestants.

Des témoignages médicaux et des reportages indépendants décrivent des hôpitaux débordés par des cas de traumatismes graves – notamment aux yeux – alors que l’usage croissant d’armes à balles réelles contre la foule est documenté dans plusieurs provinces. Ces blessures confirment que le corps, et particulièrement la capacité de voir et de documenter, reste une cible centrale du pouvoir répressif.

Au-delà des chiffres, les récits des victimes féminines racontent une autre dimension de ces pratiques contemporaines. Alors que la société iranienne a vu des femmes à la pointe des mobilisations depuis la mort de Mahsa Jina Amini en 2022 – dont certaines ont été aveuglées intentionnellement lors des manifestations –, ces blessures symbolisent à la fois l’effort du pouvoir pour effacer le regard féminin autonome, source de menace politique, et la résistance incarnée par des femmes blessées mais persistantes, dont les visages mutilés circulent comme des preuves vivantes de répression.

L’histoire ne se limite donc pas à un passé lointain de neutralisation politique : elle imprègne l’expérience corporelle des femmes aujourd’hui, où l’atteinte à l’œil se lit à la fois comme une violence instrumentale et un signe que la lutte politique se joue aussi sur le champ visuel.

Le corps comme dernier champ de souveraineté

La République islamique a rompu avec le sacré monarchique, mais elle a conservé un principe ancien : le corps comme lieu d’inscription du pouvoir. Là où le souverain aveuglait pour protéger une dynastie, l’État sécuritaire mutile pour préserver sa survie.

Cette stratégie produit toutefois un effet paradoxal. Dans l’Iran ancien, l’aveuglement faisait disparaître politiquement. Aujourd’hui, il rend visible la violence du régime. Les visages mutilés circulent, les victimes deviennent des symboles et les yeux perdus témoignent d’une crise profonde de légitimité.

L’histoire ne se répète pas, mais elle survit dans les gestes. En visant les yeux, le pouvoir iranien réactive une grammaire ancienne de domination : empêcher de voir pour empêcher d’exister politiquement.

The Conversation

Firouzeh Nahavandi ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Répression en Iran : pourquoi les forces de sécurité visent les yeux des manifestants – https://theconversation.com/repression-en-iran-pourquoi-les-forces-de-securite-visent-les-yeux-des-manifestants-273244

La Terre du Milieu de Tolkien, un lieu imaginaire pour repenser notre rapport à la nature

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Véronique André-Lamat, Professeure de Géographie, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)

La Terre du Milieu. Léa Dutemps, Fourni par l’auteur

L’écrivain anglais J. R. R. Tolkien (1892-1973) était un cartographe de l’imaginaire. Dans le Seigneur des anneaux (1954-1955), il invente un monde dans lequel la frontière entre humanité et animalité est floue. Ses cartes de la Terre du Milieu construisent la cohérence spatiale et la densité narrative de la quête de la Communauté de l’anneau. Montagnes, forêts, rivières y constituent tantôt des épreuves spatiales, tantôt des espaces protecteurs ou de refuge. La géographie y structure le récit et façonne la fiction.


Les mondes imaginaires sont performatifs. Ils se nourrissent du réel dans une projection fictionnelle tout en l’interrogeant. Le Seigneur des anneaux n’y fait pas exception, nous invitant à réfléchir à nos liens avec la nature, à reconnaître sa valeur intrinsèque et à dépasser une conception dualiste opposant nature et culture, ne lui accordant qu’une valeur d’usage ou de ressource, à nous engager dans une éthique environnementale.

En suivant la Communauté, métissée, sur les chemins, parfois de traverse, les menant vers le mont Destin, nous sommes confrontés à différentes manières d’habiter et de transformer la nature : utopies rurales, zones industrieuses, refuges écologiques et lieux symboliques où des choix engagent l’avenir du monde. La fiction devient un outil pour questionner le réel, interroger nos pratiques et réfléchir aux enjeux environnementaux contemporains dans une ère désormais anthropocénique.

Le mont Destin.
Léa Dutemps, Fourni par l’auteur

Habiter (avec) le monde : utopies rurales et résistance

La Comté repose sur un système agraire vivrier de polycultures fondé sur de petites exploitations familiales où le tabac réputé n’est que peu exporté. Les Hobbits vivent en autarcie et habitent littéralement une nature jardinée, dans des terriers. Le bocage, les prairies forment un maillage qui limite l’érosion et protège la biodiversité et organisent un territoire où nature et société coexistent harmonieusement. Cet idéal préindustriel s’éteint peu à peu dans le monde occidental moderne où une agriculture intensive et centralisée s’est imposée pour devenir norme sur un territoire remembré.

La Comté.
Léa Dutemps, Fourni par l’auteur

La forêt de Fangorn, elle, représente une nature qui résiste à la manière d’une zone à défendre (ZAD). Les Ents, gestionnaires du peuplement forestier, incarnent des arbres doués de parole, capables de révolte. Ils refusent la domination humaine fermant les sentiers d’accès avant de s’engager dans une guerre contre l’industrialisation menée par Saroumane en Isengard. Le chantier stoppé de l’autoroute A69 témoigne de la façon dont la nature peut parfois aujourd’hui par elle-même poser des limites aux projets d’aménagement voulus par l’humain.

La Lothlórien, enfin, symbolise une écotopie, un espace préservé du temps et des pressions humaines, où nature, société et spiritualité vivent en harmonie. La réserve intégrale de la forêt de la Massane, les forêts « sacrées » d’Afrique de l’Ouest ou celles du nord de la Grèce (massif du Pindes) font écho à cet idéal. Pensées comme des écosystèmes dont les dynamiques naturelles sont respectées et où l’intervention humaine contrôlée se fait discrète, elles permettent d’observer et de suivre les espèces, la régénération spontanée des habitats et leur résilience. Mais à l’image de la Lothlórien, un tel système de gestion reste spatialement rare, fragile. Il nécessite de construire la nature comme bien commun dont l’accès et l’usage sont acceptés par les communautés qui cohabitent avec ces espaces forestiers.

La Lothlórien.
Léa Dutemps, Fourni par l’auteur

Ces trois types de territoires montrent qu’habiter le monde n’est pas simplement occuper, encore moins s’approprier, un espace de nature mais engager un dialogue avec lui, considérer qu’il a une valeur par lui-même, juste parce qu’il existe, et pas uniquement en tant que ressource. Il s’agit alors de cohabiter dans des interactions où chaque existant prend soin de l’autre.

Exploiter une nature ressource : de l’artificialisation à la destruction

La transformation des espaces de nature, comme le montre Tolkien, peut aussi répondre à une logique d’exploitation intensive, la nature offrant des ressources permettant d’asseoir la domination des humains sur la nature comme sur d’autres humains. Il ne s’agit plus d’envisager une cohabitation être humain/nature mais d’asservir la nature par la technique.

Isengard, le territoire de Saroumane au sud des monts Brumeux, contrôlé par la tour d’Orthanc, incarne la transformation radicale du milieu par et pour l’industrie ; une industrie dont la production d’Orques hybrides, sorte de transhumanisme appliqué à la sauvagerie, vise à renforcer le pouvoir de Saroumane et construire son armée pour prendre le contrôle d’autres territoires. La forêt est rasée, les fleuves détournés, le paysage mécanisé, dans l’unique but d’alimenter l’industrie. Les champs d’exploitation des schistes bitumineux en Amérique du Nord montrent à quel point l’exploitation de la nature peut détruire des paysages, polluer une nature qui devient impropre et dont les fonctions et services écosystémiques sont détruits).

La tour d’Orthanc.
Léa Dutemps, Fourni par l’auteur

La Moria, ancien royaume florissant du peuple Nain, est l’exemple de l’issue létale de la surexploitation d’une ressource naturelle. Si le mithril, minerai rare de très grande valeur a construit la puissance du royaume Nain, son exploitation sans cesse plus intense, vidant les profondeurs de la terre, va conduire à l’effondrement de la civilisation et à l’abandon de la Moria. Ce territoire minier en déshérence fait écho aux paysages des régions du Donbass par exemple, qui conservent aujourd’hui encore les traces visibles de décennies d’extraction charbonnière : galeries effondrées, sols instables et villes partiellement abandonnées.

Lieux de rupture et enjeux planétaires

On trouve enfin chez Tolkien une mise en scène d’espaces qui représentent des lieux de bascule pour l’intrigue et l’avenir du monde, en l’occurrence la Terre du Milieu.

Le « bourg-pont » de Bree, zone frontière matérialisée par une large rivière, marque la limite entre l’univers encore protégé, presque fermé, de la Comté et les territoires marchands de l’est, ouverts et instables. Mais Bree est aussi un carrefour dynamique, lieu d’échanges où circulent et se rencontrent des personnes, des biens et des récits. Un carrefour et une frontière où toutefois la tension et la surveillance de toutes les mobilités sont fortes.

La Moria.
Léa Dutemps, Fourni par l’auteur

Lieu de transition, symbolisant à la fois ouverture et fermeture territoriales, Bree est un point de bascule dans le récit où convergent et se confrontent des personnages clés de l’intrigue (les Hobbits, Aragorn, les cavaliers noirs de Sauron), les figures du Bien et du Mal autour desquelles vont se jouer l’avenir de la Terre du Milieu. Comme Bree, Calais est un point de friction entre un espace fermé (les frontières britanniques) et un espace ouvert où s’entremêlent société locale, logiques nationales et transnationales, mais où les circulations sont de plus en plus contrôlées.

Enfin, la montagne du Destin, volcan actif, incarne le lieu de rupture ultime, celui où le choix d’un individu, garder l’anneau pour lui seul dans un désir de pouvoir total ou accepter de le détruire, a des conséquences majeures pour toute la Terre du Milieu. Certains espaces jouent un rôle similaire sur notre terre. La fonte du permafrost sibérien ou de l’inlandsis antarctique pourrait libérer d’immenses quantités de carbone pour l’un, d’eau douce pour l’autre, accélérant le dérèglement climatique et la submersion de terres habitées.

Ces lieux où des actions localisées peuvent déclencher des effets systémiques globaux, au-delà de tout contrôle, concentrent ainsi des enjeux critiques, écologiques, géopolitiques ou symboliques.

La fiction constitue un puissant vecteur de réflexion quant à notre responsabilité collective dans la gestion de la nature, quant à nos choix éthiques et politiques dans la manière d’habiter la Terre en tant que bien commun et ainsi éviter d’atteindre un point de bascule qui sera celui d’un non-retour.

The Conversation

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. La Terre du Milieu de Tolkien, un lieu imaginaire pour repenser notre rapport à la nature – https://theconversation.com/la-terre-du-milieu-de-tolkien-un-lieu-imaginaire-pour-repenser-notre-rapport-a-la-nature-272085

La bulle de l’IA n’a rien de nouveau : Karl Marx en a expliqué les mécanismes, il y a près de 150 ans

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Elliot Goodell Ugalde, PhD Candidate, Political Economy, Queen’s University, Ontario

Le secteur de l’IA est en plein essor, mais une grande partie des investissements relève de la spéculation.
Saradasish Pradhan/Unsplash, CC BY

L’explosion des investissements dans l’intelligence artificielle révèle, comme l’avait décrit Marx, d’une difficulté structurelle du capitalisme à absorber ses propres excédents, au prix d’une financiarisation accrue et de fragilités économiques croissantes.


Lorsque Sam Altman, patron d’OpenAI, a déclaré plus tôt cette année à des journalistes à San Francisco que le secteur de l’intelligence artificielle (IA) était en train de former une bulle, le marché technologique états-unien a réagi presque instantanément. Combinée au fait que 95 % des projets pilotes en IA échouent, sa remarque a été perçue par les traders comme un signal d’alerte plus large. Même si Altman visait spécifiquement les start-ups non cotées plutôt que les grands groupes en Bourse, certains semblent y avoir vu une évaluation de l’ensemble du secteur.

Le milliardaire de la tech Peter Thiel (NDT : un proche de Donald Trump) a par exemple vendu ses actions Nvidia, tandis que l’investisseur américain Michael Burry – rendu célèbre par The Big Shorta parié des millions de dollars sur une baisse de la valeur de ce fabricant de puces mais également de l’éditeur américain de logiciels d’analyse data Palantir.




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Au fond, le propos d’Altman ne met pas seulement en lumière la fragilité de certaines sociétés, mais une tendance plus profonde qu’avait anticipée Karl Marx : le problème du capital excédentaire, qui ne parvient plus à trouver de débouchés rentables dans la production.

La théorie marxiste des crises

L’avenir de l’IA n’est pas en cause. Comme Internet après l’éclatement de la bulle de 2001, la technologie est appelée à durer. Ce qui pose question, en revanche, c’est la destination du capital une fois que les actions liées à l’IA ne fourniront plus les rendements spéculatifs promis ces dernières années.

Cette interrogation nous ramène directement à l’analyse marxienne des crises liées à la suraccumulation. Marx soutenait qu’une économie devient instable lorsque la masse de capital accumulé ne peut plus être réinvestie de manière rentable.

Les investissements technologiques masquent la faiblesse économique

Des années de taux d’intérêt bas et de liquidités abondantes durant la pandémie ont gonflé les bilans des entreprises. Une large part de ces liquidités s’est dirigée vers le secteur technologique, en se concentrant sur ce que l’on appelle les « Sept Magnifiques » – Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia et Tesla. Sans ces entreprises, la performance des marchés serait négative.

Cela ne traduit pas un véritable dynamisme technologique ; c’est le signe d’un capital concentré dans une poignée d’actifs surévalués, fonctionnant comme de l’« argent jeté dans la circulation sans base matérielle dans la production », qui circule sans ancrage dans l’activité économique réelle.

La conséquence est qu’une part moindre de l’investissement atteint l’« économie réelle », ce qui alimente la stagnation économique et la crise du coût de la vie – deux phénomènes largement masqués par l’indicateur du PIB.

Comment l’IA est devenue le dernier palliatif

Le géographe de l’économie David Harvey prolonge l’intuition de Marx avec la notion de « spatio-temporal fix », qu’on pourrait traduire par « correctif spatio-temporel », qui désigne la manière dont le capital résout provisoirement la stagnation en repoussant l’investissement dans le temps ou en s’étendant vers de nouveaux territoires.

La suraccumulation produit des excédents de travail, de capacités productives et de capital financier, qui ne peuvent être absorbés sans pertes. Ces excédents sont alors redirigés vers des projets de long terme, ce qui repousse les crises vers de nouveaux espaces et ouvre de nouvelles possibilités d’extraction.

Le boom de l’IA fonctionne à la fois comme un correctif temporel et un correctif spatial. Sur le plan temporel, il offre aux investisseurs des droits sur une rentabilité future qui pourrait ne jamais se matérialiser – ce que Marx appelait le « capital fictif ». Il s’agit d’une richesse qui apparaît dans les bilans alors qu’elle repose peu sur l’économie réelle, ancrée dans la production de biens.

Sur le plan spatial, l’extension des centres de données, des sites de fabrication de puces et des zones d’extraction minière nécessite des investissements matériels considérables. Ces projets absorbent du capital tout en dépendant de nouveaux territoires, de nouveaux marchés du travail et de nouvelles frontières de ressources. Mais comme le suggère l’aveu de Sam Altman, et alors que les mesures protectionnistes du président américain Donald Trump compliquent le commerce mondial, ces débouchés atteignent leurs limites.

Le coût du capital spéculatif

Les conséquences de la suraccumulation dépassent largement le seul monde des entreprises et des investisseurs. Elles se vivent socialement, et non de manière abstraite. Marx expliquait qu’une surproduction de capital correspond à une surproduction des moyens de production et des biens de première nécessité qui ne peuvent être utilisés aux taux d’exploitation existants.

Autrement dit, l’affaiblissement du pouvoir d’achat – ironiquement accéléré par l’essor de l’IA – empêche le capital de se valoriser au rythme auquel il est produit. Lorsque la rentabilité recule, l’économie résout ce déséquilibre en détruisant les moyens de subsistance des travailleurs et des ménages dont les retraites sont liées aux marchés financiers.

L’histoire offre des exemples frappants. L’éclatement de la bulle Internet a ruiné de petits investisseurs et concentré le pouvoir entre les mains des entreprises survivantes. La crise financière de 2008 a chassé des millions de personnes de leur logement tandis que les institutions financières étaient sauvées. Aujourd’hui, de grands gestionnaires d’actifs se couvrent déjà contre de possibles turbulences. Vanguard, par exemple, a opéré un net déplacement vers les obligations.

La spéculation comme moteur de la croissance

La bulle de l’IA est avant tout le symptôme de pressions structurelles, plus que le simple produit d’une dynamique technologique. Au début du XXᵉ siècle, l’économiste marxiste Rosa Luxemburg s’interrogeait déjà sur l’origine de la demande sans cesse croissante nécessaire à la reproduction élargie du capital.

Sa réponse fait écho à celles de Marx et de Harvey : lorsque les débouchés productifs se raréfient, le capital se déplace soit vers l’extérieur, soit vers la spéculation. Les États-Unis optent de plus en plus pour cette seconde voie. Les dépenses des entreprises dans les infrastructures d’IA contribuent désormais davantage à la croissance du PIB que la consommation des ménages, une inversion sans précédent qui montre à quel point la croissance actuelle repose sur l’investissement spéculatif plutôt que sur l’expansion productive.

Cette dynamique tire vers le bas le taux de profit et, lorsque le flux spéculatif s’inversera, la contraction suivra.

Les droits de douane resserrent l’étau sur le capital

L’inflation financière s’est accentuée à mesure que les soupapes traditionnelles permettant au capital de s’orienter vers de nouveaux marchés physiques ou géographiques se sont refermées.

Les droits de douane, les contrôles à l’exportation sur les semi-conducteurs et les mesures commerciales de rétorsion ont réduit l’espace mondial disponible pour les relocalisations. Comme le capital ne peut plus facilement échapper aux pressions structurelles de l’économie intérieure, il se tourne de plus en plus vers des outils financiers qui repoussent les pertes en refinançant la dette ou en gonflant les prix des actifs – des mécanismes qui accroissent finalement la fragilité lorsque l’heure des comptes arrive.

Le président de la Réserve fédérale des États-Unis Jerome Powell s’est dit favorable à d’éventuelles baisses des taux d’intérêt, signe d’un retour vers le crédit bon marché. En rendant l’emprunt moins coûteux, ces baisses permettent au capital de masquer ses pertes et d’alimenter de nouveaux cycles spéculatifs.

Marx a formulé cette logique dans son analyse du capital porteur d’intérêt, où la finance crée des droits sur une production future « au-delà de ce qui peut être réalisé sous forme de marchandises ». Il en résulte que les ménages sont poussés à s’endetter au-delà de ce qu’ils peuvent réellement supporter, échangeant ainsi une crise de stagnation contre une crise du crédit à la consommation.

Bulles et risques sociaux

Si la bulle de l’IA éclate alors que les gouvernements disposent de peu de marges pour redéployer les investissements à l’international et que l’économie repose sur un crédit de plus en plus fragile, les conséquences pourraient être lourdes.

Le capital ne disparaîtra pas mais se concentrera davantage dans les marchés obligataires et les instruments de crédit, gonflés par une banque centrale américaine désireuse de baisser les taux d’intérêt. Cela n’évite pas la crise ; cela en déplace simplement le coût vers le bas de l’échelle sociale.

Les bulles ne sont pas des accidents mais des mécanismes récurrents d’absorption du capital excédentaire. Si le protectionnisme de Trump continue de fermer les débouchés spatiaux et que les correctifs temporels reposent sur un endettement toujours plus risqué, le système s’oriente vers un cycle d’inflation des actifs, d’effondrement, puis de nouvelle intervention de l’État.

L’IA survivra, mais la bulle spéculative qui l’entoure est le symptôme d’un problème structurel plus profond – dont le coût, une fois pleinement révélé, pèsera avant tout sur les classes populaires.

The Conversation

Elliot Goodell Ugalde ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. La bulle de l’IA n’a rien de nouveau : Karl Marx en a expliqué les mécanismes, il y a près de 150 ans – https://theconversation.com/la-bulle-de-lia-na-rien-de-nouveau-karl-marx-en-a-explique-les-mecanismes-il-y-a-pres-de-150-ans-271960

Mangrove loss is making the Niger Delta more vulnerable: we built a model that can track how the forests are doing

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Chinomnso Onwubiko, Consultant, University of Cape Coast

Rivers State on Nigeria’s coastline has some of Africa’s largest mangrove ecosystems. The Niger Delta itself contains the third-largest mangrove forest in the world. These trees support fisheries, biodiversity and the livelihoods of thousands of people.

The Niger Delta region is also the heart of the country’s oil and gas industry. Decades of oil exploration and production have altered its landscape. Pipeline construction, dredging (when sand is dug out of the ground), oil spills and gas flaring (burning) have degraded mangrove habitats. In addition, local communities use mangrove wood for fuel, construction and income generation.

The resulting damage to the environment – including mangrove forests – has weakened the natural coastal defences that once protected communities from flooding, erosion and storms.

Mangroves grow in shallow water. They act as biophysical barriers that dissipate wave energy, trap sediments and reduce the intensity of storm surges.

I am an environmental scientist working in coastal zone management, flood risk assessment and nature-based solutions for climate adaptation. My research focuses on how ecosystems help reduce coastal flood risk. In particular, I have looked at how natural ecosystems, particularly mangroves, contribute to coastal resilience and community protection in vulnerable coastal regions.

In my research I used ecosystem modelling tools to evaluate how changes in habitat condition influence exposure to flooding and erosion in coastal communities. The model scored and compared areas of healthy, continuous mangrove cover with areas where mangroves were degraded or cleared.

It showed that mangrove ecosystems provide a significant natural defence against flooding in the coastal communities of Rivers State. Areas with good mangrove cover scored lower for vulnerability.

This comparison confirms what local residents have long observed: that the loss of mangrove forests has led to more frequent and severe flooding events.

The study underscores the urgency of integrating nature-based solutions into local and national flood management policies.

Mangroves provide significant cover

The Niger Delta has recorded varying amounts of oil spill incidents since the 1970s. These have affected land, water and mangrove forests.

My study applied the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model developed by the Natural Capital Project. The model uses information about a range of variables to generate exposure scores for places along the shoreline. The variables include shoreline type, wind and wave exposure, and the distribution of populations and infrastructure along the coast.

The score shows how vulnerable a place is to flooding. This allows direct comparisons between areas with intact mangroves and those that have lost mangroves.

A key insight from the modelling exercise was that the relationship between mangrove extent and flood protection is not simple. Narrow, fragmented mangrove belts offer limited protection. Wider and denser belts of mangroves have a disproportionately powerful effect. They substantially reduce wave energy and flood inundation.

This finding aligns with similar studies from south-east Asia and the Caribbean. These report that wider mangrove zones provide exponentially greater flood mitigation benefits.

The study further highlights the socio-ecological implications of mangrove degradation. The decline of mangrove cover driven by fuelwood harvesting, land conversion, oil infrastructure and pollution has eroded biodiversity and fisheries productivity. It has also reduced the resilience of human communities.

In places where mangroves have been lost, residents rely on infrastructure like sandbags or embankments. But these provide limited and temporary relief. Communities are becoming dependent on costly engineering measures rather than sustainable, ecosystem-based solutions.

What needs to be done

Restoring and protecting mangroves is a cost-effective way of reducing disaster risk. Natural coastal buffers reduce exposure to flooding and erosion. They also support livelihoods through fisheries, fuelwood and ecotourism. Mangroves also store carbon.

All these functions make them a cornerstone of climate adaptation in environments like the Niger Delta.

Urgent action is required to protect and restore mangrove ecosystems.

Rivers State could be a model for other coastal regions facing similar challenges. The model produces scenarios of “with mangroves” and “without mangroves”. This enables:

  • consequences of the presence or absence of mangroves to be seen

  • the production of maps. These can show areas where mangroves provide the most – and the least – support. So in real time, it shows areas where reforestation or afforestation efforts can be focused on.

These can be replicated in other coastal areas.

Mangrove conservation must be part of formal coastal zone management and spatial planning policies. This means recognising what mangroves can contribute to disaster risk reduction, urban development and climate adaptation strategies at state and national levels.

Large-scale mangrove restoration programmes must begin in degraded areas, especially those that have already experienced severe flooding. Restoration efforts should focus on reestablishing wide belts of trees with dense coverage, using native species and community-led approaches that ensure local participation and ownership.

Government and oil companies operating in the Niger Delta must do more to stop pollution, dredging and land-use practices that destroy mangroves. Aquaculture, eco-tourism and mangrove-friendly fisheries should be promoted to reduce dependence on unsustainable wood harvesting.

Capacity building and public awareness campaigns are essential to empower communities to manage mangrove ecosystems sustainably. By combining local knowledge with scientific evidence, policymakers, researchers and communities can develop effective, nature-based solutions that reduce flood risk while enhancing ecological and socio-economic resilience.

The Conversation

Chinomnso Onwubiko’s study is affiliated to the World Bank Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast. She received funding from the World Bank.

ref. Mangrove loss is making the Niger Delta more vulnerable: we built a model that can track how the forests are doing – https://theconversation.com/mangrove-loss-is-making-the-niger-delta-more-vulnerable-we-built-a-model-that-can-track-how-the-forests-are-doing-267384

Stablecoins are gaining ground as digital currency in Africa: how to avoid risks

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Iwa Salami, Professor of Law, University of East London

A notification popped up on my LinkedIn the other day. Africans were doing a traditional celebratory dance at the Africa Stablecoin summit in Johannesburg.

The picture gave me a sinking feeling.

Why? While stablecoins can advance financial inclusion in Africa, could this celebration mark the potential transfer of monetary sovereignty from African economies to the economy issuing the most coveted currency-denominated stablecoin?

Stablecoins are crypto-assets or digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically by being pegged to a reference asset such as a national currency (like US dollars), a commodity (like gold) or a basket of assets.

The use of stablecoins in Africa is on the rise, particularly in Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya. This rise is driven by currency volatility, inflation and limited access to stable foreign currency through traditional banking. Those problems prompt some people to adopt US dollar-denominated stablecoins for saving, hedging and remittances.

Part of their appeal is that they can be moved across borders more quickly, cheaply and efficiently than conventional assets. In South Africa, a well developed regulatory and financial infrastructure has increased institutional confidence, expanding stablecoin use beyond retail into business payments, remittances and other business-to-business transactions.

Their stability is usually achieved through reserves, collateral, or algorithmic mechanisms that prevent large price swings.

My book, Financial Technology Law and Regulation in Africa, looked at their operation as a crypto-asset in African states. I raised concerns about their potential impact on emerging economies, including African countries, in 2019 and 2020. A recent International Monetary Fund paper has echoed these concerns.

The journey so far

Stablecoins emerged in 2014 to reduce the volatility of crypto-assets for crypto-holders who wanted to cash out of a high-value crypto-asset before it crashed. Crypto-asset values crash easily because they are highly speculative, sentiment-driven, and can be sold instantly at scale, allowing fear to trigger rapid sell-offs.

The most popular ones are US dollar-denominated USDT and USDC issued by private companies Tether and Circle, respectively. However, stablecoins were unregulated for about 10 to 11 years before the EU Markets in Crypto-assets (MiCA) regulation in 2024 and the US Genius Act in 2025. During this period, there were no disclosure requirements governing these crypto-assets.

As not all are subject to regulation, criticisms abound regarding the quality and opaque nature of the assets backing them and their robustness to withstand redemption runs or large cash redemption by holders of stablecoins.

These criticisms arise as it is often unclear exactly how liquid, safe, and transparent the assets backing stablecoins are, raising doubts about whether unregulated issuers could meet large, sudden redemption demands without stress. This matters because the stablecoin market is worth approximately US$300 billion, so a loss of confidence could trigger mass redemptions and cause disruption well beyond the crypto-asset sector.

Potential problems

The rise in the use of stablecoins poses a risk of dollarisation, as US dollar-denominated stablecoins account for 99% of the stablecoin market. Dollarisation is the excessive use of the dollar in local African economies. It could be a threat to African states’ monetary sovereignty and drive capital flight from African economies.

To avert this problem, African authorities and central banks would first need to be prepared to impose restrictions or limits on the amounts of these US dollar or foreign-denominated stablecoins that can circulate within their economies at any given time. This is to prevent the threat to monetary sovereignty.

Secondly, African economies should also be prepared to put in place sound policy frameworks through which they can build credibility for their currencies and, therefore, avoid the risk of dollarisation.

Thirdly, they can consider launching their own stablecoins. This can be in the form of a local currency stablecoin or a regional stablecoin. To prevent capital flight from the economies, these stablecoins can be backed by a commodity or a basket of commodities, from Africa’s wealth of natural resources and minerals such as precious stones, gold, diamonds, crude oil and cobalt. To have a global edge, a dollar value can be derived from these commodities.

Since the proposed African backed stablecoin would be a local currency with a US dollar value, it could be used to settle domestic, regional and global transactions without the need for US dollars, whose backing assets are held outside the country and in the US.

Fourthly, they could also consider issuing their own retail central bank digital currency, as this would have exactly the same effect as fiat but in digital form. It would have the same credibility status as fiat, which would need to be built to avoid the risk of dollarisation.

The risks

As US dollar-denominated stablecoins account for 99% of the stablecoins market, the rise of their use in Africa indicates stablecoins have heightened dollarisation.

Dollarisation already exists and is widespread across Africa. It ranges from partial and informal to deep and systemic, depending on country conditions, but stablecoins accelerate and reinforce it. Traditional dollarisation (people and firms informally using US dollars for savings and trade) remains constrained by physical cash, bank access and foreign exchange controls.

Stablecoins make dollar-denominated liquidity instantly accessible on a mobile phone, bypassing banks, foreign exchange restrictions and domestic currency infrastructure. They become “digital dollars”, circulating outside the supervisory perimeter of central banks.

The US Genius Act brings issuers under US regulatory oversight. It guarantees that US dollar-denominated stablecoins will be safe, liquid and institutionally backed, making them more attractive than many African domestic currencies, especially in inflationary environments.

Consequently, what was once an informal hedge becomes a formal, globally credible digital alternative to local currency, accelerating capital flight, weakening deposit creation, and undermining domestic monetary policy.

This has direct monetary sovereignty implications for countries such as Nigeria and Kenya. In Nigeria, persistent foreign exchange shortages and naira volatility have pushed households and small enterprises into Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) as working capital and savings instruments.

Post-Genius Act, these instruments will become more institutionally robust, increasing dependence on US-dollar-based payment and settlement systems located and governed outside the country’s financial system and reducing the Central Bank of Nigeria’s ability to influence liquidity, lending and inflation.

In Kenya, where digital finance is already deeply embedded through M-Pesa, US dollar-stablecoins offer a hedge against the shilling, bypassing local credit creation and weakening the Central Bank of Kenya’s monetary transmission mechanism.

In both cases, the US Genius Act effectively shifts monetary authority away from African central banks and towards US regulators and private issuers – not by design, but through market incentives. Stablecoins thus do not merely mirror existing dollarisation; they legalise it at scale, embedding it into Africa’s digital financial systems.

There is also the risk of capital flight from African economies to the jurisdictions where the denominated stablecoins are backed.

In summary, stablecoins can truly advance financial inclusion in Africa, but heavy reliance on foreign-denominated stablecoins risks deepening dollarisation and weakening monetary sovereignty.

Next steps

To deal with these risks, African economies need stronger policy frameworks to build currency credibility and reduce the risk of dollarisation. This means that the fiscal deficit must be contained – meaning that governments must not spend far more than they earn. Current account balances must be managed, and foreign exchange, bank and corporate sector balances must be closely monitored.

My take on this issue is that central banks should be at the forefront of these developments, and this could also involve issuing their own central bank-issued tokenised money or digital currencies. This can co-exist alongside stablecoins rather than allowing privately issued, foreign-denominated stablecoins to become the dominant digital currency in circulation in a state.

So, while the dance at the stablecoin summit was commendable, I am concerned that only one dimension, looking at the benefits of stablecoins to facilitate payments and financial inclusion, is being put forward.

Policymakers must clearly articulate the implications of foreign-denominated stablecoins and prepare appropriate responses.

The Conversation

Iwa Salami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Stablecoins are gaining ground as digital currency in Africa: how to avoid risks – https://theconversation.com/stablecoins-are-gaining-ground-as-digital-currency-in-africa-how-to-avoid-risks-271359

What is below Earth, since space is present in every direction?

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeff Moersch, Professor of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, University of Tennessee

Our solar system is mostly arranged along one plane in space, as in this not-to-scale artist’s diagram. NASA/JPL, CC BY

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.


What is below Earth, since space is present in every direction? – Purvi, age 17, India


If you’ve seen illustrations or models of the solar system, maybe you noticed that all the planets orbit the Sun in more or less the same plane, traveling in the same direction.

But what is above and below that plane? And why are the planets’ orbits aligned like this, in a flat pancake, rather than each one traveling in a completely different plane?

I’m a planetary scientist who works with robotic spacecraft, such as rovers and orbiters. When my colleagues and I send them out to explore our solar system, it’s important for us to understand the 3D map of our space neighborhood.

Which way is ‘down’?

Earth’s gravity has a lot to do with what people think is up and what is down. Things fall down toward the ground, but that direction depends on where you are.

Imagine you’re standing somewhere in North America and point downward. If you extend a line from your fingertip all the way through the Earth, that line would point in the direction of “up” to someone on a boat in the southern Indian Ocean.

model of the solar system with Sun at the center and planets all revolving in the same plane
By convention, looking ‘down’ on the solar system you see the planets orbiting counterclockwise.
Andrzej Wojcicki/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

In the bigger picture, “down” could be defined as being below the plane of the solar system, which is known as the ecliptic. By convention, we say that above the plane is where the planets are seen to orbit counterclockwise around the Sun, and from below they are seen to orbit clockwise.

Even more flavors of ‘down’

Is there anything special about the direction of down relative to the ecliptic? To answer that, we need to zoom out even farther. Our solar system is centered on the Sun, which is just one of about 100 billion stars in our galaxy, the Milky Way.

Each of these stars, and their associated planets, are all orbiting around the center of the Milky Way, just like the planets orbit their stars, but on a much longer time scale. And just as the planets in our solar system are not in random orbits, stars in the Milky Way orbit the center of the galaxy close to a plane, which is called the galactic plane.

This plane is not oriented the same way as our solar system’s ecliptic. In fact, the angle between the two planes is about 60 degrees.

line of pinkish milky glow against dark background of space
A side view of galaxy NGC 4217 taken by the Hubble Space Telescope shows how all the stars and their planetary systems lie on one plane.
NASA Goddard, CC BY

Going another step back, the Milky Way is part of a cluster of galaxies known the the Local Group, and – you can see where this is going – these galaxies mostly fall within another plane, called the supergalactic plane. The supergalactic plane is almost perpendicular to the galactic plane, with an angle between the two planes of about 84.5 degrees.

How these bodies end up traveling paths that are close to the same plane has to do with how they formed in the first place.

Collapse of the solar nebula

The material that would ultimately compose the Sun and the planets of the solar system started out as a diffuse and very extensive cloud of gas and dust called the solar nebula. Every particle within the solar nebula had a tiny amount of mass. Because any mass exerts gravitational force, these particles were attracted to each other, though only very weakly.

The particles in the solar nebula started out moving very slowly. But over a long time, the mutual attraction these particles felt thanks to gravity caused the cloud to start to draw inward on itself, shrinking.

There would have also been some very slight overall rotation to the solar nebula, maybe thanks to the gravitational tug of a passing star. As the cloud collapsed, this rotation would have increased in speed, just like a spinning figure skater spins faster and faster as they draw their arms in toward their body.

Watch how the cloud’s particles collided and eventually clumped.

As the cloud continued shrinking, the individual particles grew closer to each other and had more and more interactions affecting their motion, both because of gravity and collisions between them. These interactions caused individual particles in orbits that were tilted far from the direction of the overall rotation of the cloud to reorient their orbits.

For example, if a particle coming down through the orbital plane slammed into a particle coming up through that plane, the interaction would tend to cancel out that vertical motion and reorient their orbits into the plane.

Eventually, what was once an amorphous cloud of particles collapsed into a disc shape. Then particles in similar orbits started clumping together, eventually forming the Sun and all the planets that orbit it today.

On much bigger scales, similar sorts of interactions are probably what ended up confining most of the stars that make up the Milky Way into the galactic plane, and most of the galaxies that make up the Local Group into the supergalactic plane.

The orientations of the ecliptic, galactic and supergalactic planes all go back to the initial random rotation direction of the clouds they formed from.

So what’s below the Earth?

So there’s not really anything special about the direction we define as “down” relative to the Earth, other than the fact that there’s not much orbiting the Sun in that direction.

If you go far enough in that direction, you’ll eventually find other stars with their own planetary systems orbiting in completely different orientations. And if you go even farther, you might encounter other galaxies with their own planes of rotation.

This question highlights one of my favorite aspects of astronomy: It puts everything in perspective. If you asked a hundred people on your street, “Which way is down?” every one of them would point in the same direction. But imagine you asked that question of people all over the Earth, or of intelligent life forms in other planetary systems or even other galaxies. They’d all point in different directions.


Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

The Conversation

Jeff Moersch receives funding from NASA an the U.S. National Science Foundation.

ref. What is below Earth, since space is present in every direction? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-below-earth-since-space-is-present-in-every-direction-245348

Trump lawsuits seek to muzzle media, posing serious threat to free press

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kathy Kiely, Professor and Lee Hills Chair of Free Press Studies, University of Missouri-Columbia

President Donald Trump, who has been involved in thousands of lawsuits, has made news outlets a particular target for litigation this year. AP Photo/Evan Vucci

In December 2025, President Donald Trump filed a US$10 billion lawsuit against the BBC in a federal court in Florida. It was only the latest in a long series of high-dollar legal challenges Trump has brought against prominent media organizations, including ABC, CBS, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others.

Trump has won some sizable settlements in cases legal scholars had dismissed as largely lacking in merit. But as media scholars, we believe prevailing in court is not necessarily his primary goal. Instead, Trump appears to use lawsuits as a strategic weapon designed to silence his enemies and critics – who sometimes seem to be one and the same in his eyes.

Trump has always been litigious. Over the course of his life, he has been involved in more than 4,000 lawsuits. Many of these involved Trump suing for defamation over perceived threats to his reputation. Relatively few, however, have been successful, if success is defined as prevailing in courts of law.

But using litigation as a tool for intimidation can produce other results that can count as victory. We are concerned that the president may be using the courts as a tool not to correct the record but to muzzle potential watchdogs and deprive the public of the facts they need to hold him accountable.

Winning major settlements

Trump claims the BBC attempted to interfere with the 2024 election by misrepresenting statements he’d made. As with Trump’s other defamation suits, the odds appear long against the president winning his case against the British broadcaster in court.

Just after Trump’s election in 2024, ABC, whose parent company is Disney, promised to make a $15 million contribution to the Trump presidential library to settle a defamation suit many experts said had dubious merit.

CBS and its parent company Paramount Global settled an arguably weaker defamation suit involving editing of a “60 Minutes” interview with Kamala Harris that Trump said was done “to make her look better.” Paramount contributed $16 million to Trump’s presidential library and his legal fees in order, the company said, to avoid the “uncertainty and distraction” of litigation. That same month, the Federal Communications Commission approved the $8 billion acquisition of Paramount by Skydance Media.

Those two defamation suits were filed while Trump was still a presidential candidate. Weeks after winning reelection, Trump sued The Des Moines Register for publishing a preelection poll that suggested he might lose the swing state of Iowa. Instead, he carried the state by 13 percentage points.

Kamala Harris greeting supporters during the 2024 campaign.
Paramount Global agreed to pay $16 million to settle a lawsuit Trump had filed complaining that a CBS News interview with Kamala Harris had been misleadingly edited.
AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Trump could have just gloated over his victory, as President Harry Truman did when he famously posed holding the Chicago Tribune’s “Dewey Beats Truman” headline the day after his reelection. Instead, Trump went to court, accusing The Des Moines Register and its pollster, J. Ann Selzer, of violating Iowa’s consumer protection laws by fraudulently deceiving consumers and campaign donors.

Even if Trump loses this suit, he has inflicted expensive litigation costs on a news organization.

The considerable costs of defense

From the 1960s until the late 1990s, leading media outlets, rich from advertising dollars, could afford to hire lawyers to defend against governmental overreach and protect their role in the U.S.’s democratic order. Those fights led to Supreme Court decisions shielding media outlets from most libel complaints and government censorship prior to publication.

But the rise of the internet and then social media led to the collapse of the economic model supporting traditional news production. As audiences and advertisers have fled traditional media outlets, including newspapers and broadcasters, the money to hire lawyers to defend against expensive defamation suits or fight for access to government information is much harder to find.

If even media giants such as ABC and CBS are settling rather than fighting, what local news editor is going to assign a story that might trigger a presidential lawsuit? That’s why Trump’s suit against The Des Moines Register is such an ominous development.

Giving up without a fight

What’s disheartening about the media giants’ capitulation is that they are at risk of squandering the protections afforded by the Constitution and the courts.

In medieval England, criticizing the king or peers of the realm was a crime. But early in U.S. history, attempts to enforce seditious libel laws by the British government and later by President John Adams and the Federalist-controlled Congress generated public outcry and rebuke. This was based in part on the understanding that in a democracy the people must be free to criticize those who govern them, a principle enshrined in the First Amendment.

The Supreme Court ratified this understanding of press freedom in its 1964 decision New York Times v. Sullivan. In a resounding victory for free expression, the justices held that government officials cannot prevail in defamation cases unless there is clear and convincing proof that their critics knowingly or recklessly disregarded the truth. Careless errors are not enough.

President Trump pumps his fist in front of supporters.
Trump addressed supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, prior to their march to Capitol Hill. The question of whether he incited them to riot is at the heart of his lawsuit against the BBC.
AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Under these protections, even Trump’s case against the BBC – where the network has admitted an ethical lapse – is not a certain winner, especially since the contested content didn’t air in Florida, where the lawsuit was filed.

Although Trump claims the BBC’s misleading edits implied that he directly incited protesters to storm the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, the network can argue in court that the inaccuracy is only technical, given that Trump truly did give a firebrand speech that was widely criticized as at least indirectly leading to the violence that followed . If the edited version of Trump’s speech is not appreciably more harmful to Trump’s reputation than his actual speech, Trump’s defamation claim would likely fail.

Trump is the first U.S. president to use the weight of his office to extract private settlements from news outlets tasked with holding him accountable. Ostensibly, these suits are to recover monetary damages for harm to his reputation, but they are part of a broader attack on what Trump perceives as hostile media coverage.

New limits from states

Some of Trump’s targets are fighting back.

One is the Pulitzer Prize Board, the defendant in yet another Trump defamation suit – in this case, over the awards the board gave for reporting on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

In December 2025, the Pulitzer Prize Board asked the judge in the case to force the president to hand over tax and medical records to prove that he had suffered the financial and emotional harm he is claiming.

Another key development: Most states have enacted anti-SLAPP laws. SLAPP stands for “strategic lawsuits against public participation,” referring to cases filed to intimidate and discourage public criticism. Thirty-eight states, plus the District of Columbia, now have anti-SLAPP laws in place. It’s probably not a coincidence that Trump filed the latest iteration of his suit against The Des Moines Register on June 30, which happened to be one day before Iowa’s anti-SLAPP law took effect.

These state laws allow targets of SLAPPs to get early resolutions of meritless suits and can force people found to have filed such suits to pick up their targets’ legal bills.

Without such tools protecting First Amendment rights – and media organizations taking steps themselves to defend such rights – dissent might be characterized as a “deceptive trade practice,” and speech is no longer truly free.

The Conversation

Lyrissa Barnett Lidsky is affiliated with the Florida First Amendment Foundation.

Kathy Kiely does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Trump lawsuits seek to muzzle media, posing serious threat to free press – https://theconversation.com/trump-lawsuits-seek-to-muzzle-media-posing-serious-threat-to-free-press-272850

Venezuela’s oil industry has flailed under government control – Mexico and Brazil have had more success with nationalizing

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Skip York, Nonresident Fellow in Energy and Global Oil, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

The Venezuelan state-run oil company is contending with aging infrastructure. Michael Robinson Chavez/The Washington Post via Getty Images

U.S. President Donald Trump has ignited a contentious debate over who has the right to control Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.

Speaking on Jan. 3, 2026, after the U.S. military seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. president declared, “We built Venezuela’s oil industry, and now we’re going to take it back.”

By Jan. 6, Trump was saying that Venezuela would provide the U.S. with up to 50 million barrels of oil in the near future.

The next day, the U.S. seized two tankers bound from Venezuela for other markets – less than a month after it seized two others it said were transporting Venezuelan oil.

Long-term plans go much further. Trump envisions major U.S. oil companies, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, to invest some US$100 billion into reviving Venezuela’s struggling industry, with the investing companies reimbursed through future production. So far, neither Venezuelan authorities nor U.S. oil companies have said whether they’re willing to do this.

As a scholar of global energy, I believe that Trump’s words and actions, including his consultations with oil executives before Maduro’s removal, signal a bold push to reassert American dominance in a country with vast oil reserves.

A motorcycle passes in front of an oil-themed mural.
A motorcycle passes in front of an oil-themed mural in Caracas, Venezuela, on May 9, 2022.
Javier Campos/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Trump’s rationale

Trump’s “Venezuela took our oil, we’re taking it back” rationale apparently references the South American nation’s initial nationalization of its oil industry in 1976, plus a wave of expropriations in 2007 under Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.

U.S. oil companies played a big role in launching and sustaining Venezuela’s oil boom, starting in the 1910s. Companies such as Standard Oil, a predecessor of ExxonMobil, and Gulf Oil, which eventually became part of Chevron, invested heavily in exploration, drilling and infrastructure, transforming Venezuela into a major global supplier.

Contracts from that era often blurred lines between reserve ownership and production rights. Venezuela legally retained subsoil ownership but granted or sold broad concessions to foreign operators, such as Royal Dutch-Shell. That effectively gave control of reserves and production to the oil companies, but not forever.

This ambiguity likely has played a role in Trump alleging outright theft through nationalization, a claim that holds little grounding in the historical precedent of how Venezuela and other nations have managed ownership of their natural reserves.

Oil nationalization

When a country nationalizes its oil industry, control is transferred from private, often foreign-owned, companies to the government.

Nationalization can involve the outright expropriation of facilities and reserves – with or without compensation – or the renegotiation of oil production contracts. Alternatively, a government may get a bigger stake in the joint ventures it already has with foreign oil companies.

While privately owned oil companies primarily are accountable to their shareholders and focus mainly on maximizing profits, most government-run oil companies have other priorities too. These might include pumping revenue into safety net programs, domestic energy security, the development of other industries and military spending.

Sometimes those other goals take so much money out of the oil company’s orbit that they interfere with operational efficiency and reinvestment, slowing growth or even reducing production capacity. That’s what happened in Venezuela, where oil production has fallen sharply since 2002.

But other Latin American countries have also nationalized their oil industries with better results.

Mexico’s experience

In Mexico, President Lázaro Cárdenas’ 1938 expropriation of foreign oil assets – primarily from U.S. and British companies – was the region’s first such assertion of economic independence.

Amid labor disputes and perceived exploitation, 17 privately owned companies were nationalized, creating Petróleos Mexicanos as Mexico’s government-run oil monopoly. Mexicans celebrate the formation of this company, known as Pemex, every year on March 18 as a symbol of national sovereignty.

Despite initial boycotts and diplomatic strain, Mexico eventually compensated the foreign companies that lost their property. But it isolated its oil sector from international capital and technology for decades.

Due to the depletion of Pemex’s largest oilfields, chronic underinvestment, a failure to adopt new technologies and unwise policy choices, production, which peaked at 3.8 million barrels a day in 2004, began to decline. Mexico responded in 2013 and 2014 with reforms that opened the oil, gas and power generation industries to private capital.

By 2018, political backlash around a perceived loss of sovereignty and uneven benefits led to a policy reversal. Oil output continues to shrink; it now stands at 1.8 million barrels per day.

Mexico’s experience underscores how oil nationalization can foster self-reliance while hindering production.

A crowd in Mexico gathers for a speech below a large bust of a man.
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, left, delivers a speech on the 86th anniversary of the nationalization of oil on March 18, 2024.
Rodrigo Oropeza/AFP via Getty Images

Brazil’s approach

Brazil also nationalized its oil industry in 1953, when President Getúlio Vargas established Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. as a state-owned company.

From the start, Petrobras had a monopoly over all Brazilian oil exploration and production. The government expanded the company’s scope when it nationalized all privately owned refineries by 1964.

Brazil’s oil nationalization was part of the country’s broader effort to develop its own industrial capacity and reduce its dependence on foreign oil.

Petrobras has changed significantly since its founding, especially after President Fernando Henrique Cardoso signed an oil deregulation law in 1997. It’s now a state-controlled company, in which investors may buy and sell shares. The government has forged many partnerships with private oil companies, drawing foreign investment.

This strategy succeeded. Production has quadrupled from 0.8 million barrels per day in 1997 to 3.4 million in 2024.

Shell, Total Energies, Equinor, ExxonMobil and other foreign oil companies have provided capital, technology and execution capacity, particularly with deep-water drilling.

A man walks past the headquarters of  a Petrobras building.
A man walks past the headquarters of Petrobras in Rio de Janeiro in 2022.
Fabio Teixeira/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Venezuela’s nationalization

Venezuela’s oil nationalization, by contrast, shifted from cooperation with foreign oil companies to confrontation with them.

President Carlos Andrés Pérez first nationalized Venezuela’s oil industry in 1976, creating Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. Foreign companies received compensation of about 25% for losing their assets. Many transitioned into service providers or formed joint ventures with the new company, PDVSA.

Venezuela made its oil sector more open to foreign capital in the 1990s. It aimed at the time to boost output and develop the Orinoco Belt in eastern Venezuela, which has some of the world’s biggest oil reserves.

This policy contributed to Venezuelan production reaching a historical peak of more than 3 million barrels per day in 2002.

Chávez changes everything

Hugo Chávez, elected president of Venezuela in 1998, reversed course.

In 2003, after a strike briefly but severely slashed national output, Chávez consolidated control over the oil industry. He purged PDVSA of his critics, replacing managers who had expertise with his political allies, and fired over 18,000 employees.

Venezuela expropriated operating assets, converted contracts held by private companies into PDVSA-controlled joint ventures and made sharp and unpredictable increases in the taxes and royalties foreign oil companies had to pay.

Foreign oil companies suffered from chronic payment delays, along with restrictive foreign exchange rules and new laws that weakened contract enforcement and made it harder for companies to use arbitration to resolve disputes.

In 2007, Chávez forced foreign oil companies partnering with PDVSA to renegotiate their agreements, leading to the partial nationalization of their stakes in those ventures.

Several foreign oil companies, including ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil, rejected the new terms of engagement and left Venezuela.

Their legal disputes with Venezuela over billions of dollars in joint venture assets and severed revenue-sharing agreements have never been resolved.

Man holds a detailed map with the PDVSA logo.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez shows on a map the location of new oil wells operating in the country in 2004.
HO/AFP via Getty Images

Chevron, however, stayed put.

The Houston-headquartered company, which has had a presence in Venezuela since 1924, now plays the largest role of any foreign oil company in the country. It produces 240,000 barrels per day, about 25% of Venezuela’s total output.

The government also reclassified vast oil deposits as “proven” at a time when global oil prices were very high, rendering their exploration and production more economically viable. That change tripled this self-reported and never-verified estimate of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves to approximately 300 billion barrels.

Conditions get worse under Maduro

Venezuelan oil output further declined while Maduro served as president, falling to 665,000 barrels per day in 2021. Since then, production has recovered somewhat, rebounding to about 1.1 million barrels per day by late 2025 – about one-third of its historic high.

This overall decline is due to mismanagement, corruption and more than a decade of U.S. sanctions. Infrastructure decay – leaking pipelines, outdated refineries held together by makeshift repairs – has exacerbated this crisis.

Many hurdles are in the way of the industry’s recovery, including ongoing and potentially future legal disputes, geopolitical risks and the need for massive investments. Returning Venezuela’s oil production to its peak of 3 million barrels per day could cost more than $180 billion.

People spend time on a beach with an oil tanker nearby.
The national oil industry is hard to ignore in Venezuela.
Jesus Vargas/picture alliance via Getty Images

Better example

As Brazil’s experience suggests, governmental control over oil production and sales is not inherently bad for a country’s economic welfare.

Norway is an even stronger example. That oil-rich Nordic country has evaded what some scholars call the “resource curse” by treating the oil that its nationally owned company, now called Equinor, has produced as a source of lasting wealth for the Norwegian people.

Revenue from the Norwegian government’s 67% stake in Equinor has accumulated in a sovereign wealth fund worth more than $2 trillion and helped Norway diversify its economy.

As the Venezuelan government regroups following Maduro’s removal, there’s much it can learn from other countries that have managed to maintain more stability alongside state-controlled oil production.

The Conversation

Did prior consulting work for PdVSA in 2002-2003

ref. Venezuela’s oil industry has flailed under government control – Mexico and Brazil have had more success with nationalizing – https://theconversation.com/venezuelas-oil-industry-has-flailed-under-government-control-mexico-and-brazil-have-had-more-success-with-nationalizing-272785

Financial case for college remains strong, but universities need to add creative thinking to their curriculum

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Caroline Levander, Vice President Global Strategy & Carlson Professor in the Humanities, Rice University

Unemployment rates are lower among people who have a college degree, compared to those with a high school degree. Wong Yu Liang/iStock Images/Getty Images

A college degree was once seen as the golden ticket to landing a well-paying job. But many people are increasingly questioning the value of a four-year degree amid the rising cost of college.

Almost two-thirds of registered voters said in an October 2025 NBC News poll that a four-year college degree isn’t worth the cost – marking an increase from 40% of registered voters who said that college wasn’t worth the cost in June 2013.

Caroline Field Levander, the vice president for global strategy and an English professor at Rice University, argues in her December 2025 book “Invent Ed” that people have lost sight of two factors that made universities great to begin with: invention and creativity.

Amy Lieberman, education editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with Levander to break down the benefits of going to college and university – and how schools can better demonstrate their enduring value.

How can we measure the value of a college degree?

College graduates earn substantially more than people who do not have a college degree.

The average high school graduate over a 40-year career earns US$1.6 million, according to 2021 findings by the Georgetown University Center on Education and Workforce. The average college graduate, over this same 40-year time frame, earns $2.8 million. That $1.2 million difference amounts to around $30,000 more salary per year.

People who earn a degree more advanced than a bachelor’s, on average, earn $4 million over 30 years, making the lifetime earning difference $2.4 million between these graduates and people with just a high school diploma.

College graduates are also better protected against job loss, and they weather job disruption cycles better than high school graduates.

The unemployment rate for people with a high school degree was 4.2% in 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. By contrast, 2.5% of people with a bachelor’s degree and 2.2% of people with a master’s degree were unemployed in 2024.

Do any of these benefits extend beyond individual students?

In addition to the substantial financial benefits college graduates experience, colleges and universities are major employers in their communities – and not just professors and administrators. Higher education institutions employ every trade and kind of worker, from construction workers to police, to name a few.

Universities are crucial to developing and strengthening the U.S. economy in other ways. The discoveries that faculty and researchers make in laboratories lead to new products, businesses and ideas that drive the U.S. economy and support the country’s financial health.

Researchers at the University of Texas Southwestern did important work in helping to discover statins, while scientists at the University of Pennsylvania developed the mRNA vaccine. The list of inventions that started at universities goes on and on.

Some people are questioning the value of a degree. What role can universities play in reassuring them of their relevance?

Discovery and invention have traditionally been the focus of many graduate programs and faculty research, while undergraduate college educations tend to focus on ensuring that students are able to successfully enter the workforce after graduation.

Undergraduate students need to gain competency in a field in order to contribute to society and advance knowledge.

But I believe universities need to teach something else that is equally valuable: They also need to build creative capacity and an inventive mindset into undergraduate education, as a fundamental return on the investment in education.

Employers report that creativity is the top job skill needed today. The IBM Institute for Business Value, for example, concluded in 2023 that creativity is the must-have skill for employee success in the era of generative AI.

The Harvard Business Review reports that employers are developing short courses aimed to build creative capability in their workers.

A woman with dark hair looks down with various small images around her.
Creativity and innovation are both likely to become increasingly important for young people entering the workplace, especially as AI continues to grow.
Andriy Onufriyenko/iStock/Getty Images

What can faculty and students easily do to encourage creativity and innovation?

Professors can build what I call a “growth mindset” in the classroom by focusing on success over time, rather than the quick correct answer. Faculty members can ask themselves as they go into every class, “Am I encouraging a growth mindset or a fixed mindset in these students?” And they can use that answer to guide how they are teaching.

Students could also consider committing to trying new courses in areas where they haven’t already been successful. They could approach their college experience with the idea that grades aren’t the only marker of success. And I think they could benefit from developing thoughtful ways to describe their journey to future employers. Simple practices like keeping a creativity notebook where they record the newest ideas they have, among many others that I describe in my new book, will help.

And university leaders need to open the aperture of how we define our own success and our university’s success so that it includes creative capability building as part of the undergraduate curriculum.

The Conversation

Caroline Levander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Financial case for college remains strong, but universities need to add creative thinking to their curriculum – https://theconversation.com/financial-case-for-college-remains-strong-but-universities-need-to-add-creative-thinking-to-their-curriculum-269463

Eating less ultraprocessed food supports healthier aging, new research shows

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Moul Dey, Professor of Nutrition Science, South Dakota State University

Studies have linked ultraprocessed foods to poor health outcomes, but such foods make up about half the calories of a typical American diet. Kobus Louw/E+ via Getty Images

Older adults can dramatically reduce the amount of ultraprocessed foods they eat while keeping a familiar, balanced diet – and this shift leads to improvements across several key markers related to how the body regulates appetite and metabolism. That’s the main finding of a new study my colleagues and I published in the journal Clinical Nutrition.

Ultraprocessed foods are made using industrial techniques and ingredients that aren’t typically used in home cooking. They often contain additives such as emulsifiers, flavorings, colors and preservatives. Common examples include packaged snacks, ready-to-eat meals and some processed meats. Studies have linked diets high in ultraprocessed foods to poorer health outcomes.

My team and I enrolled Americans ages 65 and older in our study, many of whom were overweight or had metabolic risk factors such as insulin resistance or high cholesterol. Participants followed two diets low in ultraprocessed foods for eight weeks each. One included lean red meat (pork); the other was vegetarian with milk and eggs. For two weeks in between, participants returned to their usual diets.

A total of 43 people began the dietary intervention, and 36 completed the full study.

In both diets, ultraprocessed foods made up less than 15% of the total calories – a significant reduction from the typical American diet, where more than 50% of total calories comes from ultraprocessed foods. The diets were designed to be realistic for everyday eating, and participants were not instructed to restrict calories, lose weight or change their physical activity.

Older couple shopping in a supermarket
Maintaining metabolic health promotes healthy aging.
Giselleflissak/E+ via Getty Images

We prepared, portioned and provided all meals and snacks for the study. Both diets emphasized minimally processed ingredients and aligned with the 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, the U.S. government’s nutrient-based recommendations for healthy eating, while providing similar calories and amounts of key nutrients.

The 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, released on Jan. 7, 2026, explicitly recommend eating less ultraprocessed food, but the previous versions of the guidelines did not specifically address food processing. Our feeding study design allowed us, for the first time, to examine the health effects of reducing ultraprocessed foods while keeping nutrient levels consistent with recommended targets.

We compared how participants fared while eating their habitual diets with how they responded to the two diets that were low in ultraprocessed foods. During the periods when participants ate fewer ultraprocessed foods, they naturally consumed fewer calories and lost weight, including total and abdominal body fat. Beyond weight loss, they also showed meaningful improvements in insulin sensitivity, healthier cholesterol levels, fewer signs of inflammation and favorable changes in hormones that help regulate appetite and metabolism.

These improvements were similar whether participants followed the meat-based or the vegetarian diet.

Why it matters

Ultraprocessed foods make up more than half the calories consumed by most U.S. adults. Although these foods are convenient and widely available, studies that track people’s diets over time increasingly link them with obesity and age-related chronic diseases such as Type 2 diabetes and heart disease. With older adults making up a growing share of the global population, strategies that preserve metabolic health could support healthy aging.

Most previous feeding studies testing how ultraprocessed foods affect people’s health haven’t reflected real-world eating, especially among Americans. For example, some studies have compared diets made up almost entirely of ultraprocessed foods with diets that contain little to none at all.

Our study aimed to more closely approximate people’s experience while still closely tracking the foods they consumed. It is the first to show that for older adults a realistic reduction in ultraprocessed foods, outside the lab, has measurable health benefits beyond just losing weight. For older adults especially, maintaining metabolic health helps preserve mobility, independence and quality of life.

What’s still unknown

Our study was small, reflecting the complexity of studies in which researchers tightly control what participants eat. It was not designed to show whether the metabolic improvements we observed can prevent or delay diseases such as diabetes or heart disease over time. Larger, longer studies will be needed to answer that.

On the practical side, it’s still unclear whether people can cut back on ultraprocessed foods in their daily lives without structured support, and what strategies would make it easier to do so. It’s also not fully understood which aspects of processing – for example, additives, emulsifiers or extrusion – matter more for health.

Answering these questions could help manufacturers produce foods that are healthier but still convenient – and make it easier for people to choose healthier food options.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

The Conversation

Moul Dey receives funding from the National Pork Board, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (Hatch project).

ref. Eating less ultraprocessed food supports healthier aging, new research shows – https://theconversation.com/eating-less-ultraprocessed-food-supports-healthier-aging-new-research-shows-271986