What declining vaccination rates mean for your family – and what you can do

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Kar-Hai Chu, Associate Professor of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh

Unvaccinated individuals face 140 times higher risk of contracting measles. Sarah L. Voisin/The Washington Post via Getty Images

As the risk of measles remains an ongoing concern, herd immunity in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, is already slipping. According to data obtained via The Washington Post in January 2026, 1 in 3 Allegheny County kindergartners were in a classroom too far below adequate vaccination coverage to stop a measles outbreak during the 2023-24 school year.

A professor from the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Public Health, Kar-Hai Chu, and a research program supervisor, Maggie Slavin, answered our questions about declining measles, mumps and rubella vaccination rates and what it means for the future of public health.

Private and parochial/religious schools in Allegheny County fall below the herd immunity threshold, while public schools tend not to. What explains that gap, and should it concern us?

Research shows the disparity between vaccination coverage in private and parochial/religious versus public schools is that private and parochial/religious schools tend to have higher rates of exemptions to vaccinations for moral and religious beliefs.

Local vaccination rates in Allegheny County schools are declining and are below the necessary level of vaccination coverage to stop the spread of measles: 95%. Between the 2023-24 and 2024-25 school years, public schools displayed an overall decline in coverage, whereas private and parochial/religious increased coverage between the two years, yet have greater variation in coverage across schools. Regardless of school type, children should have complete and updated vaccinations to protect themselves and the community. Even small dips in vaccination rates can lead to the spread of disease.

What are combination vaccines and how long have they been used?

Combination vaccines are single injections that protect against multiple, preventable diseases and have been used since the 1940s. They represent one of public health’s most successful interventions. Common examples include DTaP – for diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis – and MMR, for measles, mumps and rubella. The MMR vaccine has been licensed since 1971 and helped eliminate measles from the U.S. by 2000. It reduced cases by 80% within a decade of its introduction to society.

Why are some government officials calling to split these vaccines?

The U.S. officials calling to split combination vaccines cite unsubstantiated claims linking them to autism and concerns about too many vaccinations administered at once.

These claims contradict decades of scientific evidence that demonstrates the safety and efficacy of combination vaccines.

A panel of adults sit around a long table drenched in a blue tablecloth.
In June 2025, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dismissed all members of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.
Elijah Nouvelage/Stringer Collection via Getty News Images

Who determines vaccination recommendations in the US?

Since 1964, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has provided evidence-based vaccination recommendations. The committee consists of volunteer medical and public health experts appointed by the secretary of Health and Human Services for staggered, four-year terms. These experts review scientific evidence throughout the year and update recommendations accordingly. States maintain authority to implement these recommendations as they see fit. Vaccination recommendations have been politicized under the current administration and are currently in a sort of limbo.

In June 2025, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has a history of promoting anti-vaccination dissinformation, took the unprecedented step of firing all 17 committee members and appointing 12 new members with questionable qualifications and conflicts of interest. This could be considered a fundamental disruption to the evidence-based process that has protected public health for over 60 years.

The Pennsylvania Department of Health and Gov. Josh Shapiro have stated that they continue to endorse evidence-based vaccination guidelines from leading national medical associations, such as the American Academy of Pediatrics, American Academy of Family Physicians and American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.

What are the real-world consequences of vaccine misinformation and disinformation?

An example consequence is now visible: Measles is spreading again in the U.S. In 2025, there were 2,255 confirmed cases, which is nearly double the 2019 peak of 1,274 cases.

While there haven’t been any confirmed cases of measles in Allegheny County in 2026, there were confirmed measles cases in Lancaster County on Feb. 3, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health, which determined the individuals were not vaccinated.

Another visible consequence of vaccination misinformation and disinformation is that unvaccinated people face 140 times higher risk of contracting measles. Over 90% of 2025 cases in the U.S. occurred in people who were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccine status.

Signs point toward measles testing near an emergency department.
The MMR vaccine was licensed in 1971 and helped eliminate measles from the U.S. by 2000.
Jan Sonnenmair/Stringer Collection via Getty News Images

When government officials become sources of misinformation, the threat multiplies exponentially. The World Health Organization identifies vaccine hesitancy as one of the biggest threats to global health.

What can be done to protect evidence-based vaccination policy?

The American Academy of Pediatrics emphasizes that state-level policies may offer greater responsiveness to local needs while maintaining evidence-based standards.

Stronger state policies play a key role in ensuring vaccine access. In Louisiana, for example, framing vaccination as a way to keep your neighbors safe has been used as an effective way to appeal to local communities. In South Dakota, advocates are reaching business owners by emphasizing the economic benefits of immunization. The state of Oregon created a financing model that allows providers and clinics to access vaccines with no upfront costs, then they reimburse the state once they have been paid by insurers.

People can support organizations that prioritize scientific evidence over anecdotes, demand transparency in policymaking and understand the difference between legitimate scientific debate and coordinated misinformation. These are crucial steps in protecting vaccine policies. The 2026 American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines have been deemed trustworthy by 12 health care organizations that represent over a million pediatric medical professionals.

The Conversation

Kar-Hai Chu receives funding from the NIH.

Maggie Slavin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What declining vaccination rates mean for your family – and what you can do – https://theconversation.com/what-declining-vaccination-rates-mean-for-your-family-and-what-you-can-do-277469

Health care sticker shock has become the norm, but talking to your doctor about costs can help you rein it in

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Helen Colby, Assistant Professor of Marketing, Indiana University

A doctor at the National Cancer Institute talks with a patient. National Cancer Institute on Unsplash, CC BY

As health care costs rise, patients aren’t just shouldering higher bills. They’re bearing more and more responsibility for getting information.

Americans are facing a health care affordability crunch on multiple fronts. In 2025, the Republican-controlled Congress approved a sweeping tax law that scaled back premium subsidies for Americans accessing care through the Affordable Care Act starting in 2026. As a result, millions on ACA plans now face much higher premiums, with many dropping out or expecting to drop out and risk going uninsured as premiums surge. By March 2026, about 1 in 10 people on ACA plans had dropped out, and that share is expected to rise.

Meanwhile, high-deductible insurance plans have become more common, requiring patients to pay thousands of dollars before coverage fully kicks in. The rise of those plans, along with surging drug prices and the growing share of Americans who are under- or uninsured, means that medical debt remains a leading source of financial strain.

Nearly half of U.S. adults now report difficulty affording health care. Together, these shifts are accelerating the “consumerization” of health care. Patients now have the ability to comparison shop, evaluate options and manage costs – but often without clear pricing. In this environment, knowing how to ask the right questions may be one of the most important tools patients have.

We are professors who study how perceptions of health care costs shape patients’ decisions about their care. Our research examines
how factors such as price-transparency regulations influence patient choices. Across our work, we consistently hear from patients about rising costs and how conversations about price with their providers too often never happen.

Why speaking up about cost matters

When one of us took our child to the doctor for pink eye, the pediatrician quickly sent a prescription for antibiotic drops to the pharmacy. At the pickup, the pharmacist dropped the news that the drops would cost more than US$300. A follow-up phone call to the doctor’s office, however, yielded important information: A generic version of the same medication offered the same treatment and the same results, but at a fraction of the price.

That quick phone call saved her a lot of money. It also raised a broader question: Why don’t more people have these conversations about cost? In fact, one study shows that cost conversations occur in only about 30% of medical visits.

These discussions aren’t just for medications. They can be crucial when a recommended procedure has multiple alternatives; when out-of-pocket costs might affect whether you follow through on care; or when a sudden medical bill could create financial strain. Speaking up about price can help patients stay healthier and avoid the all-too-common trade-off between medical care and household expenses.

The study mentioned above also found that doctors and patients identified ways to reduce out-of-pocket costs – such as switching to a generic drug or adjusting the timing of care – in nearly half of those cases. Importantly, these conversations were typically brief and did not compromise the quality of care, the researchers found.

Patients actually prefer doctors who bring up costs, other research has found. Still, most patients remain hesitant. While a majority say they want to discuss cost, only a minority actually do, often waiting until a bill arrives – often when it’s too late to consider alternatives. That’s why it’s important that consumers feel empowered to ask the right questions. Here are three that can help make care more affordable.

A close-up of a person's hands, with pen in one, going over a complicated medical billing form.
A patient works on a medical billing form.
Mael Balland on Unsplash., CC BY

Is there a generic or lower-cost alternative?

One of the simplest ways to reduce drug costs is to ask whether a less expensive option is available. Brand-name medications can cost significantly more than generics, even when they are equally effective. One industry survey estimated that 90% of all prescriptions filled in 2024 were generic or biosimilar, but these accounted for only 12% of drug spending.

In many cases, physicians can substitute a generic drug or recommend a similar treatment that achieves the same outcome at a lower price. And when no direct generic exists, there may be therapeutic alternatives worth considering. For example, if a brand-name eye drop or inhaler isn’t available in generic form, doctors can often prescribe a different medication in the same class that works just as well but costs far less. Research on physician–patient cost conversations shows that switching to lower-cost, clinically similar alternatives within the same drug class is a common strategy for reducing out-of-pocket spending without compromising care.

Is there any financial assistance available?

Some hospitals and large health systems have specific programs aimed at making care more affordable for lower-income patients. In many states, government programs address this same goal. These programs often offer discounts on care, but they can be complex to navigate and require significant paperwork. Many health care offices have staff who are knowledgeable about these programs and can help patients determine eligibility and sometimes even assist with applications, although the Trump administration has cut funding.

Patients can often find these programs through hospital or health system websites, which typically include financial assistance or “charity care” pages outlining eligibility and how to apply. State Medicaid offices and insurance marketplaces are also key entry points for coverage and subsidy programs. Nonprofit organizations and patient advocacy groups may also offer or list assistance tailored to specific conditions or medications.

It’s also important to remember that for prescription medications, what you’re quoted isn’t always the final price. Many medications come with options to reduce costs, including manufacturer coupons, copay assistance programs and patient assistance programs. Doctors’ offices and pharmacists may also know practical ways to save money, such as using a different pharmacy, switching to mail order or adjusting how a prescription is written. Asking about these options can uncover savings that aren’t immediately obvious.

What will this cost me, and are there other options?

Health care pricing is often opaque, and costs can vary widely depending on where and how care is delivered. Asking up front about your expected out-of-pocket cost can help you avoid surprises later.

This question also opens the door to alternatives. For example, patients may be able to choose a lower-cost imaging center, opt for outpatient rather than hospital-based care, or delay nonurgent services until insurance coverage improves.

Speaking up is part of taking care of your health

Health care decisions shouldn’t feel like a choice between your well-being and your wallet. A brief, honest conversation about cost can lead to more affordable and more sustainable care.

Physicians can’t address financial concerns they don’t hear about, and most want to help their patients access care they can realistically follow through on. As costs continue to shift toward the patient’s burden, asking these questions isn’t just helpful – it’s essential.

The next time you’re handed a prescription or a referral, remember: One simple question about price could make all the difference.

The Conversation

Deidre Popovich has received grant funding from BlueCross BlueShield of Texas and Providence Health.

Helen Colby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Health care sticker shock has become the norm, but talking to your doctor about costs can help you rein it in – https://theconversation.com/health-care-sticker-shock-has-become-the-norm-but-talking-to-your-doctor-about-costs-can-help-you-rein-it-in-262990

As a philosopher, I’m convinced that Trump isn’t lying − he’s doing something worse

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Robert B. Talisse, W. Alton Jones Professor of Philosophy, Vanderbilt University

Polls indicate mounting regret and disappointment among Trump supporters. Farknot_Architect, iStock/Getty Images Plus

For much of his political career, dishonesty has been without cost for Donald Trump. He entered into national politics with the birther lie, claiming that Barack Obama was not born in the U.S., and that did not prevent Trump from winning the 2016 GOP nomination.

His persistent false statements about crowd sizes, electoral outcomes and the birthplace of his father barely garner press coverage today.

What’s more, the admission that Trump lies seems to have had little impact. On the campaign trail during the 2024 presidential race, vice-presidential candidate JD Vance acknowledged that Trump’s story that Haitian immigrants were eating pets in Ohio had been “created.” That confession had no discernible effect on Trump’s popularity. In fact, some measures indicate that Trump’s supporters admire his untruthfulness.

More recently, however, things have changed. Data now indicates mounting regret and disappointment among his base.

The administration’s failure to sustain convincing messaging about the Iran war, the Epstein files, the tariffs and inflation have left some supporters feeling duped and abandoned by Trump.

The president’s recent approval numbers are registering this shift.

This might suggest that fact-checking efforts are paying off. But, as a philosopher who studies the cognitive and emotional aspects of citizenship, I think this is incorrect. There is a better explanation for why, at this point, Trump’s followers are reacting negatively to his assertions.

Trump’s false assertion that immigrants were eating dogs did not diminish his popularity.

When falsehoods aren’t lies

Although fact-checking can be successful in establishing the facts among people who have not already made up their minds, it is generally ineffective among true believers. Once someone has formed an opinion, debunking their belief can backfire, driving them to commit even more strongly to their mistake.

To explain the emerging shift among Trump’s base requires looking elsewhere. Specifically, I think it requires abandoning the idea that Trump’s more outlandishly false statements are lies at all.

I realize that this may sound odd.

To explain, let’s begin by noting that it is surprisingly difficult to give an adequate definition of lying. Intuitive characterizations – “A lie is something that isn’t true” – fall short.

For example, lying isn’t merely uttering a falsehood. Honest mistakes and statements made from lapses of memory are not lies. You could say instead that lying is deliberately asserting what one knows to be false.

But that won’t work, either.

President Bill Clinton lied when he claimed that “there is not a sexual relationship,” which, at the moment he said it, was true.

At the very least, the definition of lying must include speaking with the aim of causing one’s audience to adopt a falsehood. But that would make stage actors liars.

We should say instead that lying is a matter of speaking with the intent to deceive. Though difficulties remain, that’s a workable definition.

Betrayal by contempt

In a May 9, 2026, speech to GOP lawmakers, President Donald Trump speaks about the war in Iran as a ‘short-term excursion.’

Given the ease with which many of Trump’s false statements are debunked, I think it’s unlikely that he aims to deceive anyone. No one really believes that Trump has stopped eight wars, defeated inflation, brought gasoline prices below US$2, cut a deal with the CEO of Sharpie or has 100% approval for his military incursion in Iran – all things he has said.

As he is not attempting to deceive, Trump isn’t lying when he makes such claims. Rather, he is doing something else entirely, something arguably more pernicious.

From my perspective as a political philosopher, these and other similar claims indicate he is speaking falsely as a way of demeaning or taunting his detractors. By resolutely asserting unbelievable falsehoods, Trump is expressing contempt. He is deriding the enterprise of journalism, in effect forcing reporters to write stories about his incredible statements, thereby indirectly controlling the news cycle.

It seems to me that his purpose is not to convince anyone, but rather to declare to the press, and perhaps also to his opposition, “You cannot stop me.” For a political movement rooted in the idea that U.S. politics is a swamp in need of draining, Trump’s defiant style has been successful.

But here’s the catch. It appears that Trump’s supporters are now beginning to feel that they, too, are on the receiving end of his contempt.

His recent claims that grocery prices are falling, his tariffs are working, the economy is roaring and the operation in Iran is a “little excursion” that has already been successful are not only obvious falsehoods.

In asserting them, Trump belittles those who must bear the effects of a struggling economy and an ill-conceived war. From this perspective, the shift among his base is not due to their realization that Trump lies. It’s that he has betrayed them.

The Conversation

Robert B. Talisse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. As a philosopher, I’m convinced that Trump isn’t lying − he’s doing something worse – https://theconversation.com/as-a-philosopher-im-convinced-that-trump-isnt-lying-hes-doing-something-worse-279093

In his efforts to remake federal architecture, Trump repudiates the ‘republican ideals’ that have long informed it

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Kevin D. Murphy, Professor and Chair of History of Art, Vanderbilt University

Work crews prepare for the construction of a new ballroom after the demolition of the East Wing of the White House in October 2025. Andrew Leyden/Getty Images

Sand was thrown in the gears of President Donald Trump’s grand White House ballroom plans on March 31, 2026, when U.S. District Court Judge Richard Leon ordered a pause on construction.

The president, the judge wrote, was the “steward” of the residence, not its “owner.” In response, the Justice Department filed an emergency motion, asking that construction be allowed to resume due to security risks caused by the project being in a state of limbo.

Presidents of the United States, unlike other world leaders, have not typically sought to impress their own architectural tastes on national monuments.

In this regard, Trump is the exception. His approach to remaking federal architecture has mirrored his approach to university funding and immigration enforcement: move fast, break things.

But Trump’s imposition of his aesthetic preferences doesn’t just threaten to erase chapters in the story of the nation’s federal architecture. It also risks undoing the legacies of presidential wives, influential designers and the egalitarian ideals that many of these buildings embody.

Gaudy grandeur

Since his second term began in January 2025, Trump has paved over the storied White House Rose Garden – established by first lady Ellen Wilson in 1913 and redesigned by renowned horticulturalist Bunny Mellon in 1962 – complaining that ladies’ high-heeled shoes sank into the ground. The art deco bathroom off the Lincoln Bedroom now reflects Trump’s penchant for polished marble. And gold-colored decorative elements have been affixed to the simple woodwork throughout the White House, with some of the ornamentation brought from Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida estate.

Most notably, the East Wing, which housed the offices of the first lady and her staff, was flattened in fall 2025 to make way for a grand ballroom projected to cost some US$400 million. The building, if completed as planned, will dwarf the historic White House.

The ballroom also reflects Trump’s taste for grandiosity and opulence – the same aesthetic that’s reflected in the 250-foot “Independence Arch” that Trump has proposed for Washington.

Trump has repeatedly complained that public buildings in Washington lack grandeur. He was even quoted by Golf Magazine in 2017 as having described the White House as a “real dump,” although he later denied it.

Yet many of the structures he has demolished or has sought to revise embody, in their form and decoration, certain republican ideals, such as government by the people, civic virtue and opposition to concentrated power.

Buildings that embody egalitarianism

Trump has added accents to the White House to mimic the imposing homes of British and European monarchs. But the residence’s original “republican simplicity” – a concept attributed to Thomas Jefferson – actually had a purpose: It signaled the egalitarian outlook of the founders.

In 1792, when Jefferson was George Washington’s secretary of state, he anonymously entered the competition to design a new presidential home. His submission, which didn’t end up winning, was inspired by Renaissance architecture like Andrea Palladio’s Villa Rotonda. Completed around 1570 in northern Italy, the Villa Rotonda features symmetrical facades and harmonious proportions that have been equated with Renaissance humanism and rationalism.

Elsewhere, Jefferson advocated for modeling the young nation’s government architecture on the classical tradition, due to its associations with ancient Greek and Roman democracy. This often meant using classical design principles like restraint, order and geometric harmony, and adapting them by either simplifying the elements or using locally available materials instead of the expensive marble and other stones favored by the ancients.

A repudiation of ‘republican simplicity’

In August 2025, Trump signed an executive order, Making Federal Architecture Beautiful Again, directing that this same classical style inform the design of all future federal buildings.

Yet Trump’s own vision for the White House design doesn’t align with this directive. For one, the sheer enormity of the proposed ballroom transgresses the foundational belief in classical restraint.

The columns that support the massive south portico – which in an earlier iteration was reached by a grand staircase that didn’t lead to an entrance – have Corinthian capitals, the most ornate type of decorative top for a column. In contrast, Ionic capitals, which are more restrained, currently grace the columns at the entrance of the White House. One of Trump’s appointees, however, wants to swap these out in favor of Corinthian capitals.

And the temple-style portico on the east façade of the planned ballroom is awkwardly shifted to the far north end, rather than being centered as the classical tradition would dictate.

Glossing over history

This is not to say that classical principles have never run up against contemporary design trends.

In 1888, architect Alfred B. Mullett completed the State, War and Navy Building, now known as the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Mullet had been inspired by Boston’s Old City Hall, which had been completed in 1865 and was itself inspired by the government architecture of the French Second Empire.

Trump has said that he finds the Eisenhower building’s gray granite façade dreary, and that he’d like to paint it white. Yet the material itself is a crucial element, tying the structure to the “Boston Granite Style.”

If the office building is painted white – in a process that would degrade the granite – a visual key to understanding its architectural and political history would be lost.

Architectural historian Henry-Russell Hitchcock argued how forward-looking the building was for its time, and showed how how it mirrored the first skyscrapers erected in New York City: Richard Morris Hunt’s Tribune Building and the Western Union Building designed by Hunt’s pupil George B. Post.

For these reasons, preservationists have sued Trump to try to prevent these alterations.

Stately, ornate, granite building.
President Donald Trump wants to paint the Eisenhower Executive Office Building white.
Celal Güne/Anadolu via Getty Images

Design that’s bottom up, not top down

I think it’s also important to note that in the original design and construction of many of the buildings Trump disparages, women played outsized roles.

As I note in my 2025 book, “Women Architects at Work: Making American Modernism,” which I co-authored with Mary Anne Hunting, the contributions of women in architecture and design have often been overlooked.

The Trump administration’s projects in and around Washington will only further obscure the women who shaped the federal buildings and landscapes of the capital.

While the Rose Garden reflected the efforts of Bunny Mellon and Jacqueline Kennedy, the East Wing came under the watchful eye of Edith Roosevelt, the wife of President Theodore Roosevelt. Edith worked hand-in-hand with famed classicist architect Charles Follen McKim on its redesign as the primary entrance, in 1902. And had it not been for the public fundraising efforts of Jacqueline Kennedy, the capital may never have had a performing arts venue of national significance, the Kennedy Center for the Arts. In early 2026, the Trump administration announced that the center would close for two years to undergo an estimated US$200 million renovation.

While all buildings are living organisms that are frequently adapted to changing functional requirements, they are also the repositories of national memory.

In 1961, a young Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who, as a U.S. senator from New York, would later go on to advocate for historic preservation, penned “Guiding Principles for Federal Architecture” on behalf of an ad hoc government committee on office space.

“The development of an official style must be avoided,” he wrote. “Design must flow from the architectural profession to the Government, and not vice versa.”

As Judge Leon made clear in his ballroom ruling, no government officials – not even presidents – “own” federal architecture. The American people do. And it’s up to their representatives in Congress to decide whether to destroy or renovate it, bearing in mind that it’s an inextricable part of the country’s history.

This article was written with the collaboration of Mary Anne Hunting, Ph.D., an independent scholar in New York City.

The Conversation

Kevin D. Murphy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. In his efforts to remake federal architecture, Trump repudiates the ‘republican ideals’ that have long informed it – https://theconversation.com/in-his-efforts-to-remake-federal-architecture-trump-repudiates-the-republican-ideals-that-have-long-informed-it-276565

I found a new meteor shower, and it comes from an asteroid getting broken down by the Sun

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Patrick M. Shober, Postdoctoral Fellow in Planetary Sciences, NASA

This composite image shows the Geminid meteors, captured in 2020 using Global Meteor Network software. Aleksandar Merlak

Across the Earth, every night, thousands of automated stargazers are waiting to take pictures of shooting stars. I am one of the scientists who study these meteors.

Most movies and news alerts focus on large asteroids that could destroy the Earth. And your phones notifies you every few months that an object nine washing machines wide is going to just narrowly skim past. However, the small dust and rubble that enter our atmosphere daily tell an equally interesting story.

My planetary science colleagues and I use camera observations of the night sky to better understand dust, car-sized asteroids and debris from comets in our solar system.

In a study published in March 2026, I searched through millions of meteor observations collected by all-sky camera networks based in Canada, Japan, California and Europe and found a small, recently formed cluster. The 282 meteors associated with this cluster tell the story of an asteroid that got a little too close to the Sun.

Meteor formation

When a sand-sized crumb of space rock hits our atmosphere, it heats up almost instantly, vaporizing its surface layer and turning it into an electrically charged gas. The whole fragment starts to glow — this is what we call a meteor. If the object is larger, like a boulder, and brighter, it’s called a bolide or a fireball. On average, these objects hit our atmosphere going over 15 miles per second. For small dust or sand-sized objects, the whole process lasts only a fraction of a second before they completely disappear.

Most of these sand-sized fragments in the solar system originate from comets – cold, icy objects from the outer reaches of the solar system. As comets pass by the Sun, their icy components turn to gas, releasing tons of dust. This is why comets are often called “dirty snowballs” and appear fuzzy in telescopic images.

Asteroids, on the other hand, are leftovers from the early solar system that formed closer to the Sun. They are dry and rocky, and do not have the same ices that give comets their characteristic tails.

What does it mean to be active?

Astronomers call an asteroid or comet “active” when it sheds dust, gas or larger fragments. This activity is caused by some external force on the object in space, like heat from the Sun, a small impact, or when asteroids spin too fast and fly apart.

Understanding and identifying activity helps scientists better understand how these objects change over time.

For comets, sublimation of ices – when solid ice turns directly into gas, skipping the liquid phase – is the primary culprit. However, for asteroids, the reason for activity can vary greatly.

For example, NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission, which launched into space to study an asteroid named Bennu, saw activity from its surface, with heat stress and small impacts among the leading explanations.

Other sources for asteroid activity include breakup when an asteroid spins too fast, tidal forces ripping apart asteroids during close encounters with a planet, or gas release.

Researchers most commonly search for activity using telescopes. Astronomers can look for a “tail” or fuzziness around the object. This tail is a clear sign that there is gas and dust around the body. But there is another way to search for activity – meteor showers.

Finding hidden asteroids via meteor showers

The most famous active asteroid is 3200 Phaethon. It is the parent body of the Geminid meteor shower that occurs every year in mid-December. During past close approaches with the Sun, Phaethon released vast amounts of dust and larger fragments. These morsels of Phaethon have spread out along its entire orbit over time, leading to the present Geminid meteor stream.

Each meteor shower we observe occurs when the Earth passes through one of these debris streams. So if astronomers can detect meteor showers, they can also be used to find active objects in space.

At first, debris shed by an asteroid or comet travels closely together. Imagine squeezing a single drop of food dye into a moving stream of water: Initially, the dye stays in a tight, concentrated cloud. But as it flows, the water’s swirling currents pull at the dye, causing it to spread out and fade.

In space, the gravitational tugs from passing planets act like those currents. They pull on the individual meteor fragments in slightly different ways, causing the once-tight stream to gradually drift apart until it completely dilutes into the background dust of our solar system.

The discovery of a rock-comet

In a study published in March 2026 in the Astrophysical Journal, I used millions of observations of meteors to search for recent, unknown activity from asteroids near the Earth. I found one clear cluster of 282 meteors that stood out.

What makes this discovery so exciting is that we are essentially witnessing a hidden asteroid being baked to bits. This newly confirmed meteor stream follows an extreme orbit that plunges almost five times closer to the Sun than Earth does.

Based on how these meteors break apart when they hit our atmosphere, we can tell they are moderately fragile, but tougher than stuff from comets. This finding tells us that intense solar heat is literally cracking the asteroid’s surface, baking out trapped gases and causing it to crumble. This is likely a major source of past Phaethon activity and the main reason the meteorites on Earth are so diverse.

The search for the source

Why does finding a hidden, crumbling asteroid matter? Meteor observations act as a uniquely sensitive probe that lets us study objects that are completely invisible to traditional telescopes.

Beyond solving astronomical mysteries, analyzing this debris helps us understand the physical evolution of asteroids and comets in our solar system. More importantly, it reveals hidden populations of near-Earth asteroids, which is vital information for planetary defense.

The new meteor shower’s parent asteroid remains elusive. However, NASA’s NEO Surveyor mission, launching in 2027, offers a promising solution. This space telescope, dedicated to planetary defense and the discovery of dark, hazardous, Sun-approaching asteroids, will be the ideal tool for searching for the shower’s origin.

The Conversation

Patrick M. Shober receives funding from the NASA Postdoctoral Program.

ref. I found a new meteor shower, and it comes from an asteroid getting broken down by the Sun – https://theconversation.com/i-found-a-new-meteor-shower-and-it-comes-from-an-asteroid-getting-broken-down-by-the-sun-277557

El alto precio ambiental del ‘fracking’ en México

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By María del Sol Vázquez de Léon, M. en C., Universidad de Guadalajara

BreizhAtao/Shutterstock

La política energética de México en 2026, orientada a expandir la extracción de gas natural como componente central de la soberanía energética, conlleva implicaciones que trascienden lo económico. Desde el ámbito ecológico, esta estrategia interactúa directamente con sistemas terrestres y marinos altamente vulnerables, comprometiendo procesos clave para la resiliencia ambiental.

Uno de los principales impactos es el uso intensivo del agua en regiones áridas y semiáridas del norte del país, donde el estrés hídrico limita la capacidad de los ecosistemas para mantener su funcionalidad biológica. La extracción de gas, particularmente mediante técnicas no convencionales como la fracturación hidráulica o fracking, puede alterar el ciclo hidrológico, afectar la microbiota del suelo y reducir la disponibilidad de agua para especies endémicas adaptadas a condiciones extremas.

Asimismo, el riesgo de contaminación de acuíferos representa una amenaza persistente para la biodiversidad terrestre y acuática. En ambientes marinos como el campo Lakach, un importante yacimiento de gas natural en aguas profundas del golfo de México, las perturbaciones físicas y acústicas asociadas a la extracción pueden impactar comunidades bentónicas caracterizadas por baja resiliencia y lenta recuperación ecológica.

La evidencia científica sugiere que la estrategia actual privilegia la mitigación sobre la prevención, lo que plantea interrogantes sobre su compatibilidad con la sustentabilidad biológica a largo plazo.




Leer más:
Las transformaciones energéticas que exige el siglo XXI


Contracciones de una política energética

Desde hace más de una década, el fracking ha sido una práctica cotidiana por Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), llevada a cabo a través de contratos con empresas petroleras como Halliburton, Schlumberger o Baker Hughes. Según los datos que nuestro grupo consiguió recopilar mediante la solicitud de información pública, al menos 924 pozos han sido perforados mediante esta técnica en los estados de Coahuila (47 pozos), Nuevo León (182 pozos), Puebla (233), Tabasco (13), Tamaulipas (100) y Veracruz (349).

Pese a que la población ha realizado innumerables manifestaciones en contra de esta práctica debido a los impactos negativos que se generan en el medio ambiente, aún no se cuenta con una prohibición constitucional o legal definitiva. En la actualidad, persisten los marcos legales de la reforma energética del 2013 impulsada por el expresidente Enrique Peña Nieto.

Un ejemplo es la Ley de Hidrocarburos, donde se establecen los lineamientos generales que permitirán la extracción de hidrocarburos como el gas y el aceite de lutitas (gas shale) a través del fracking como una fuente de generación de energía, posibilitando legalmente la explotación de yacimientos no convencionales. A pesar de la apuesta de el gobierno actual por transición energética con el fin de aumentar la capacidad eléctrica con fuentes renovables –bajo el argumento de la autosuficiencia energética–, la administración de la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum ha abierto todavía más la puerta a la extracción de hidrocarburos, principalmente gas natural y aceite mediante el fracking.

La falta de un sustento legal ha permitido que instituciones como PEMEX, la Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos y la Agencia de Seguridad, Energía y Ambiente no puedan frenar esta práctica, que está provocando un gran daño en la salud de los ecosistemas. La Secretaría de Energía (SENER) tiene ubicada seis cuencas con reservas para fracking: Chihuahua, Burro-Picachos, Sabinas, Burgos, Tampico-Misantla y Veracruz.

Los análisis de un estudio realizado en el 2017 confirman que, aunque la explotación de gas favorecería la independencia energética del país, la disponibilidad de agua dulce para algunos estados se vería comprometida. Este trabajo visibiliza una paradoja geohídrica crítica: las mayores reservas recuperables de gas coinciden con las zonas de menor disponibilidad de agua en el norte de México. La explotación de estos recursos mediante fracturación hidráulica genera alta demanda de agua, compitiendo con el uso doméstico, urbano y agrícola en áreas con estrés hídrico severo.




Leer más:
El valor del agua y el tamaño de nuestra ignorancia


Derroche y contaminación en las aguas subterráneas

El fracking demanda aproximadamente diez veces más agua que la perforación convencional, lo que equivale a entre 10 y 14 millones de litros por pozo. Otro rasgo importante es que el agua subterránea está en promedio a una profundidad de 500 metros de profundidad, mientras que la extracción de gas se sitúa a entre 1500 y 2000 metros. Esto puede provocar la filtración de gas metano hacia los acuíferos, contaminando el agua subterránea, la cual posteriormente puede ser extraída y utilizada en pozos de agua potable.

Una vez que la roca es fracturada, el agua residual puede emerger a la superficie con agregados químicos y contaminantes cancerígenos como el tolueno y el xileno, los cuales pueden contaminar fuentes superficiales como ríos y arroyos.

En la actualidad, no existen estudios concluyentes sobre México, solo proyecciones basadas en escenarios. Para ello, se han utilizado datos de los acuíferos Edwards-Trinity, en Texas, como referencia para el consumo de agua y la disponibilidad de este recurso en las cuencas del noreste del país. En este contexto, el estudio del fracking en México debe abordarse desde la perspectiva del principio precautorio, tomando en cuenta las diversas preocupaciones que se han manifestado sobre los impactos de este método de extracción. Hay que recordar que el agua subterránea tiene la misma o más importancia que el gas.

Dicho análisis debe ser, además, multidisciplinario, contando con la participación de especialistas en los ámbitos hidrogeológico, social y legal. El objetivo es proponer estrategias sustentables que minimicen los impactos ambientales y sociales, reduzcan los riesgos y garanticen la disponibilidad del agua subterránea para las generaciones presentes y futuras.

The Conversation

Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.

ref. El alto precio ambiental del ‘fracking’ en México – https://theconversation.com/el-alto-precio-ambiental-del-fracking-en-mexico-279513

Embryo fossil found in South Africa is world’s oldest proof that mammal ancestors laid eggs

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Julien Benoit, Associate professor in Vertebrate Palaeontology, University of the Witwatersrand

Artist’s impression of _Lystrosaurus_ embryo. Artist: Sophie Vrard, CC BY

Between 280 and 200 million years ago, a group of animals evolved which would eventually give rise to mammals, including humans: the therapsids. They were first described more than 150 years ago, based on fossils from South Africa. Since then, many more fossils have been discovered.

James Kitching, one of the most talented South African fossil hunters of the 20th century, excavated many thousands of therapsids from the rocks of the Karoo (a semi-arid region of the country’s interior). He also found fossilised dinosaur eggs, but neither he nor any palaeontologist after him ever found therapsid eggs.

They should exist, because some mammals (platypus and echidnas) do lay eggs. But Kitching began to doubt that therapsids laid eggs: perhaps, he thought, they were, like most of their mammalian descendants, already viviparous (giving live birth)?

We are scientists who study extinct animals and the environments they lived in millions of years ago to understand more about the evolution of life. In our new paper we describe, for the first time, the embryo-containing fossilised egg of a 250 million-year-old mammalian ancestor.

It finally shows that therapsids were indeed egg-laying (oviparous). This discovery sheds new light on the reproduction and survival strategy of that group of animals.

Hand holding what looks like a stone egg
The egg about to be synchrotron scanned at the ESRF.
Author provided, CC BY

A 20-year-old mystery

The fossil egg and embryo we described was discovered near Oviston, in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa, by John Nyaphuli, a palaeontologist from Bloemfontein, in 2008. It’s been kept in the National Museum in Bloemfontein. We knew that it belonged to a species that lived 252 million to 250 million years ago called Lystrosaurus, but we didn’t know whether the species was an egg-layer. The adult looked like a pig, with naked skin, a beak like a turtle, and two tusks sticking out and pointing down.

The reason it took 20 years to prove that it had been in an egg is that this fossil preserves no shell. Only a curled-up embryo is visible. If there was a shell, it was likely leathery or had dissolved. Only the most advanced dinosaurs laid hard-shelled eggs.

So how could we find out whether this young creature had once been inside an egg?

The answer to this question lay in the advanced technology of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility at Grenoble, France. There, we used a powerful X-ray source to image the inside of the bones of the embryo. Under this treatment, the fossil unveiled all its long-kept secrets – most crucially, its stage of development.

3D reconstruction of the embryo based on synchrotron scan performed at the ESRF.
Author supplied, CC BY

We discovered that the lower jaws of its beak were not completely fused. This developmental trait is only found in modern turtles and birds in which jaw bones fuse long before they are born so that their beak is strong enough for the hatchling to catch and crush its food.

This meant that our curled up Lystrosaurus embryo had died in ovo (in an egg), tightly nestled in its soft, leathery eggshell. This was the evidence palaeontologists had been looking for.

Thanks to the synchrotron-assisted examination of its lower jaw, we could finally demonstrate that this embryo was indeed that of an unhatched Lystrosaurus baby.

Famous survivor

What does it unravel about the survival strategy of Lystrosaurus?

Lystrosaurus is a herbivorous (plant-eating) therapsid famous for surviving the “Great Dying”, which was a major mass extinction of species 252 million years ago. During this event, 90% of all living things on Earth died. Life almost ceased to exist, which makes this the second most important event in the history of life on Earth after the origin of life itself.

How Lystrosaurus survived this is still an intriguing mystery, but the egg gives a possible clue. The fossil we describe shows that the animal laid arguably large eggs for its body size. Large eggs are produced by species that feed their embryos with yolk rather than milk. The young develop to an advanced stage in the egg and then they hatch. In contrast, monotremes (the platypus and echidnas), which feed milk to their young, lay small eggs because the baby is fed after hatching. The large size of its egg implies that Lystrosaurus did not feed milk to its young.




Read more:
A secret mathematical rule has shaped the beaks of birds and other dinosaurs for 200 million years


More relevant to its survival strategy, this further indicates two things. Firstly, it means that the egg was less prone to desiccation (drying out). The larger the egg, the smaller its surface area (comparatively speaking), so Lystrosaurus eggs would lose less water through their leathery shell than those of other species of that time. Given the dry environment during and in the immediate aftermath of the extinction, this was a significant advantage, especially since hard-shelled eggs would not evolve for another 50 million years, at least.

Secondly, a large egg implies that Lystrosaurus was likely precocial, meaning that the babies likely hatched at an advanced stage of their development. Lystrosaurus hatchlings were big enough to feed by themselves and run away from predators, and would reach maturity faster so they could reproduce early.




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Growing up fast, reproducing young and proliferating were the secrets of Lystrosaurus survival.

Our ability to identify the fossil egg adds to our understanding of the origin of mammalian reproductive biology and lactation, and the survival strategy of Lystrosaurus in the most devastating biological crisis. This is significant to better grasp how modern species might cope with the current sixth mass extinction of species.

The Conversation

Julien Benoit receives funding from the DSTI-NRF African Origins Platform and GENUS Centre of Excellence in Palaeosciences.

Vincent Fernandez works for the ESRF synchrotron and was awarded beamtime at the ESRF for this experiment.

Jennifer Botha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Embryo fossil found in South Africa is world’s oldest proof that mammal ancestors laid eggs – https://theconversation.com/embryo-fossil-found-in-south-africa-is-worlds-oldest-proof-that-mammal-ancestors-laid-eggs-277673

Los astronautas de Artemis II soportarán una temperatura de 3 000 °C durante la reentrada: ¿cómo sobrevivirán?

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Chris James, Senior Lecturer, Centre for Hypersonics, School of Mechanical and Mining Engineering, The University of Queensland

NASA

Tras completar con éxito su misión a la Luna, la tripulación de Artemis II está a punto de regresar a la Tierra. Los cuatro astronautas han establecido un nuevo récord de distancia recorrida por el ser humano desde la Tierra: 406 771 kilómetros.

Su viaje de regreso culminará con una reentrada a alta velocidad, hipersónica y extremadamente caliente en la atmósfera terrestre antes de que su nave espacial americe en el océano Pacífico frente a la costa de California, aproximadamente a las 8 de la tarde del 10 de abril, hora local (2 de la madrugada del sábado 11 de abril según la hora peninsular de España).

La reentrada será el último reto al que tendrá que enfrentarse la tripulación en su épica misión de diez días. Conlleva muchos peligros, pero su nave espacial está equipada con una serie de tecnologías para garantizar su seguridad.

Una reentrada veloz

La cápsula Orión que transporta a los astronautas de Artemis II viajará a más de 11 km/s (40 000 km/h) cuando alcance la atmósfera terrestre. Esto es 40 veces más rápido de lo que viaja un avión de pasajeros.

Si, en cambio, consideramos la energía cinética, que es la que posee un objeto debido a su movimiento, al reentrar la cápsula Orión acumulará casi 2 000 veces más energía cinética por kilogramo de vehículo que un avión de pasajeros.

Al igual que cualquier nave espacial que regresa a casa, tendrá que reducir la velocidad y disminuir su energía cinética hasta casi cero para que se puedan desplegar los paracaídas y pueda aterrizar de forma segura en la Tierra.

Las naves espaciales reducen dicha energía realizando una reentrada controlada a través de la atmósfera superior de nuestro planeta, donde utilizan la resistencia aerodinámica contra la atmósfera como freno para desacelerar.

A diferencia de un avión, que suele estar diseñado para ser aerodinámico y minimizar las fuerzas de resistencia con el fin de reducir el consumo de combustible, las naves espaciales que reentran hacen lo contrario: están concebidas para ser lo menos aerodinámicas posible, con el fin de maximizar la resistencia y ayudarles a reducir la velocidad.

Esta desaceleración durante la reentrada puede ser extremadamente brusca.

La desaceleración y la aceleración se suelen expresar en fuerzas g –o “g”, para abreviar–. Se trata de la fuerza de desaceleración o aceleración dividida por la aceleración estándar que todos sentimos debido a la gravedad terrestre. Un piloto de Fórmula 1 experimenta más de 5 g al tomar una curva, lo que se acerca a las fuerzas g máximas que un ser humano puede soportar sin desmayarse.

Las pequeñas cápsulas de reentrada no tripuladas, como la OSIRIS-REx de la NASA, que trajo muestras del asteroide Bennu, simplemente se lanzan a la atmósfera y desaceleran rápidamente. Estas entradas se producen muy rápido, en menos de un minuto. Pero las fuerzas g en ese caso pueden ser superiores a 100, lo cual es aceptable para vehículos robóticos, pero no para los humanos.

Los vehículos tripulados, como la cápsula Orión de la NASA, utilizan fuerzas de sustentación para frenar la entrada a tiempo. Esto reduce las fuerzas g a niveles que los seres humanos pueden soportar y hace que la reentrada dure varios minutos.

Una nave espacial volando junto a una luna circular iluminada por detrás por el sol.
Los cuatro astronautas de Artemis II establecieron un nuevo récord de distancia recorrida por el ser humano desde la Tierra, alcanzando una distancia máxima de 406 771 kilómetros.
NASA

Un reingreso muy caliente

La cápsula Orión reentrará en la atmósfera moviéndose a más de 30 veces la velocidad del sonido. Entonces, una onda de choque envolverá la nave espacial, calentando el aire a 10 000 °C o más, aproximadamente el doble de la temperatura de la superficie del Sol.

El calor extremo convierte el aire que atraviesa la onda de choque en un plasma cargado eléctricamente. Esto bloquea temporalmente las señales de radio, por lo que los astronautas no podrán comunicarse durante las fases más duras de su descenso.

Garantizar una reentrada segura

Las naves espaciales sobreviven al entorno extremadamente hostil de la reentrada gracias a un cuidadoso diseño de sus trayectorias para minimizar el calentamiento en la medida de lo posible.

La nave también lleva un sistema de protección térmica. Se trata, en la práctica, de una manta aislante que protege a la nave espacial y a su tripulación o carga del duro flujo hipersónico que se produce en el exterior.

El sistema de protección térmica está diseñado a medida para el vehículo y su misión. Los materiales que pueden soportar más calor se colocan en las superficies donde se prevé que el entorno sea más hostil y están diseñados para degradarse durante la reentrada, pero aguantarán. El resplandor al rojo vivo que experimentarán también irradia calor de vuelta a la atmósfera en vez de que sea absorbido por la nave espacial.

Este diseño preciso es lo que permite a Artemis atravesar el aire a 10 000 °C mientras mantiene una temperatura máxima de la superficie del escudo térmico de solo unos 3 000 °C.

Un rastro de luces brillantes sobre un fondo negro.
Imagen de la nave espacial Hayabusa de la JAXA reentrando en la atmósfera terrestre el 13 de junio de 2010, con el cuerpo de la nave ardiendo detrás de ella.
NASA

La mayoría de las naves espaciales están protegidas por materiales llamados ablativos, que suelen estar fabricados con fibra de carbono y un tipo de pegamento conocido como resina fenólica. Estos escudos térmicos ablativos absorben energía e inyectan un gas relativamente frío en el flujo a lo largo de la superficie del vehículo, lo que ayuda a enfriar todo.

Concretamente, el material del escudo térmico ablativo utilizado en la cápsula Orión se llama AVCOAT y es una versión del material que protegió la cápsula Apolo cuando regresó de la Luna a finales de la década de 1960 y principios de la de 1970.

Aunque la misión Artemis I –un vuelo de prueba no tripulado– fue un gran éxito, la ablación del escudo térmico durante la reentrada fue mucho mayor de lo esperado. Grandes trozos de material se desprendieron en algunos puntos.

La parte superior quemada y ennegrecida de una nave espacial.
El escudo térmico de la nave espacial Orión de la NASA tras la misión Artemis I.
NASA

Tras largas inspecciones y análisis, los ingenieros decidieron seguir adelante con el mismo tipo de escudo térmico en la misión Artemis II. La hipótesis es que Artemis I perdió fragmentos de este recubrimiento debido a una acumulación de presión en el interior del material durante el “salto” de su entrada, fase en la que la nave espacial salió de la atmósfera para enfriarse antes de realizar una segunda entrada en la que aterrizó.

Para Artemis II, los ingenieros han decidido modificar ligeramente la trayectoria, incluyendo un “salto” menos definido.

Es increíble ver lo que la NASA y los astronautas han logrado en esta misión hasta ahora. Pero, como muchos otros, me sentiré aliviado cuando los vea regresar sanos y salvos a la Tierra.

The Conversation

Chris James recibe financiación del Consejo Australiano de Investigación, el Grupo de Ciencia y Tecnología de Defensa de la Commonwealth, la Oficina de Investigación Naval de Estados Unidos y la Oficina de Investigación Científica de la Fuerza Aérea de Estados Unidos.

ref. Los astronautas de Artemis II soportarán una temperatura de 3 000 °C durante la reentrada: ¿cómo sobrevivirán? – https://theconversation.com/los-astronautas-de-artemis-ii-soportaran-una-temperatura-de-3-000-c-durante-la-reentrada-como-sobreviviran-280376

La dengue est un problème de plus en plus préoccupant : pourquoi est-il si difficile de la combattre avec des vaccins

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Marielena Vogel Saivish, Research Fellow in Virology (Post-Doc position), The University of Texas Medical Branch

La dengue, une maladie transmise par les moustiques, touche chaque année des millions de personnes en Asie, en Afrique et en Amérique latine. Et elle se propage géographiquement, car le réchauffement climatique et l’urbanisation permettent aux populations de moustiques de prospérer dans de nouvelles régions.

À première vue, la dengue semble être une candidate évidente à la vaccination. Elle est causée par un virus. L’infection déclenche une réponse immunitaire. Des vaccins contre des virus similaires existent déjà.

Mais la dengue est complexe. Elle n’est pas causée par un seul virus, mais par quatre virus étroitement apparentés, appelés sérotypes. Lorsqu’une personne est infectée par l’un d’entre eux, le système immunitaire la protège généralement contre ce type spécifique, mais pas contre les trois autres. Dans certains cas, une infection antérieure peut en fait faciliter l’apparition d’une nouvelle infection.

Il n’est donc pas étonnant que la dengue soit l’une des maladies virales transmises par les moustiques les plus courantes au monde. Les scientifiques estiment qu’environ 390 millions d’infections surviennent chaque année, ce qui en fait un problème de santé publique majeur en Afrique.

À l’heure actuelle, un vaccin contre la dengue est autorisé à l’échelle mondiale. Le Dengvaxia ne doit être utilisé que si la personne a déjà été infectée. Un vaccin plus récent, le TAK-003, a été recommandé par l’Organisation mondiale de la santé pour une utilisation chez les enfants âgés de 6 à 16 ans dans les zones à forte transmission de la dengue, quel que soit leur statut d’infection antérieure. Il est administré en deux doses. De plus, des vaccins de nouvelle génération sont en cours de développement, notamment au Brésil.

Notre travail de chercheurs en immunologie virale et en maladies transmises par les moustiques vise à comprendre comment les réponses immunitaires façonnent la protection contre des virus tels que celui de la dengue.

Nos recherches récentes ont passé en revue des décennies d’études sur les vaccins contre la dengue, y compris des essais cliniques et des analyses immunologiques. Les données montrent que les vaccins contre la dengue doivent générer une réponse immunitaire soigneusement équilibrée contre les quatre sérotypes viraux. Si la protection est incomplète ou inégale, cela peut augmenter le risque de forme grave de la maladie chez certaines personnes.

La compréhension de ces mécanismes immunitaires est essentielle pour concevoir des vaccins plus sûrs et plus efficaces.

Dans l’ensemble, l’efficacité des vaccins varie encore en fonction de facteurs tels que les infections antérieures, l’âge et l’intensité de la transmission, ce qui signifie que les stratégies de vaccination doivent être soigneusement adaptées à chaque population.

La dengue en Afrique

Des épidémies de dengue et des preuves de transmission ont été documentées au Kenya, Tanzanie, Soudan, Sénégal et Côte d’Ivoire. Elle pourrait être encore plus répandue sur le continent qu’on ne le pensait auparavant, en partie parce que les systèmes de dépistage et de surveillance sont encore en cours de développement dans de nombreuses régions.

La maladie se propage par la piqûre de moustiques Aedes infectés, en particulier Aedes aegypti. Ces moustiques se reproduisent dans les eaux stagnantes, souvent situées à proximité des zones habitées. Les symptômes de la dengue comprennent une forte fièvre, des maux de tête, des douleurs derrière les yeux, des douleurs musculaires et articulaires, des nausées et des éruptions cutanées. La plupart des personnes se rétablissent en une semaine environ, mais dans certains cas, l’infection peut s’aggraver et entraîner des hémorragies, des lésions organiques ou un choc. La transmission a tendance à augmenter pendant la saison des pluies, lorsque les populations de moustiques se développent.

Au cours des dernières décennies, le nombre de cas a fortement augmenté, l’urbanisation, les voyages et le changement climatique ayant élargi l’habitat des moustiques.




Read more:
Les cas de dengue explosent en France métropolitaine : que faut-il savoir ?


La recherche d’un vaccin

L’infection par un sérotype de la dengue confère généralement une protection à long terme contre ce sérotype spécifique. Le problème survient lorsqu’une personne est ensuite infectée par un sérotype différent.

Au lieu d’offrir une protection, les anticorps issus de la première infection peuvent parfois aider le deuxième virus à pénétrer plus facilement dans les cellules.

Ce processus, connu sous le nom facilitation dépendante des anticorps, a été associé à des formes plus graves de la maladie, notamment la dengue hémorragique et le choc. En termes simples : la mémoire du système immunitaire peut parfois se retourner contre l’organisme. Cette caractéristique biologique rend le développement d’un vaccin particulièrement difficile.

Nos recherches ont révélé plusieurs schémas importants.

Tout d’abord, l’efficacité du vaccin dépend fortement du fait que la personne ait déjà contracté la dengue. Dans certains essais à grande échelle, les vaccins ont offert une bonne protection aux personnes qui avaient déjà été infectées. Mais pour les personnes qui n’avaient jamais été exposées au virus, la protection était plus faible et, dans certains cas, le risque d’hospitalisation augmentait après une infection ultérieure.

Deuxièmement, la qualité des anticorps importe autant que leur quantité. Il ne suffit pas de produire des taux élevés d’anticorps. Ces anticorps doivent être fortement neutralisants, c’est-à-dire capables de bloquer complètement le virus. Des anticorps faiblement neutralisants peuvent ne pas parvenir à stopper l’infection et contribuer à aggraver la maladie.

Troisièmement, l’âge et l’intensité de la transmission influencent les résultats. Dans les zones où la dengue circule largement et où de nombreuses personnes y sont exposées tôt dans leur vie, les schémas d’efficacité du vaccin diffèrent de ceux observés dans les régions où la première exposition survient plus tard.




Read more:
Virus « exotiques » dans l’Hexagone : Que faut-il savoir du chikungunya ?


Pourquoi c’est important

Des pays où l’activité de la dengue était auparavant limitée sont désormais confrontés à des épidémies. Les vaccins restent l’un des outils de santé publique les plus puissants.

Mais une compréhension incomplète peut saper la confiance du public. La confusion autour de la vaccination contre la dengue a, par le passé, contribué à la peur et à la désinformation dans certaines communautés.

Par exemple, l’introduction du vaccin Dengvaxia a suscité la controverse aux Philippines après que des études de suivi ont montré que les résultats du vaccin différaient selon que les personnes avaient déjà été infectées par la dengue ou non. Il est essentiel d’expliquer de tels résultats et leurs causes.

Des données issues de multiples essais cliniques, études épidémiologiques et groupes de recherche en immunologie à travers le monde montrent que les vaccins contre la dengue doivent être évalués non seulement pour leur efficacité globale, mais aussi pour leurs performances par rapport à différents groupes de populations. Il s’agit notamment des personnes ayant déjà été infectées ou non, différents groupes d’âge et des régions présentant des niveaux de transmission variables.

Nos recherches démontrent également que les réponses immunitaires doivent être soigneusement mesurées.
La protection ne consiste pas simplement à générer des anticorps. Il s’agit de générer le bon type d’anticorps.

Ces connaissances orientent déjà de nouvelles stratégies vaccinales. Certains candidats vaccins se concentrent sur l’amélioration d’une immunité équilibrée pour les quatre sérotypes. D’autres visent à affiner la manière dont les réponses immunitaires sont stimulées afin de réduire le risque d’amplification.




Read more:
Chikungunya, dengue, Nil occidental : en 2025, la France confrontée à une circulation virale sans précédent


Se préparer aux épidémies

Plusieurs enseignements se dégagent pour les pays qui se préparent à des épidémies de dengue.

Premièrement, les stratégies de vaccination doivent être adaptées au contexte épidémiologique. Dans les régions où la plupart des adolescents ou des adultes ont déjà été infectés, certains vaccins peuvent être très bénéfiques. Dans les zones à faible transmission, un dépistage préalable à la vaccination pour déterminer l’exposition antérieure peut s’avérer nécessaire.

Deuxièmement, la surveillance à long terme de la sécurité est essentielle. Les effets du vaccin contre la dengue ne deviendront peut-être pleinement visibles que plusieurs années après son déploiement, une fois que les personnes vaccinées auront été exposées à l’infection naturelle. Les systèmes de surveillance doivent être suffisamment solides pour détecter les tendances à un stade précoce.

Troisièmement, la communication doit être transparente. La confiance du public repose sur des explications claires tant des avantages que des risques. Il n’est pas nécessaire de simplifier une science complexe pour en faire une certitude trompeuse. Elle peut être expliquée honnêtement et clairement.

Enfin, les investissements dans la recherche doivent se poursuivre. La dengue montre que tous les virus ne suivent pas de règles simples.

La leçon à en tirer va au-delà de la dengue. À mesure que les maladies transmises par les moustiques se propagent en raison des changements environnementaux, d’autres virus complexes pourraient poser des défis similaires. Il est de plus en plus important d’apprendre à concevoir des vaccins pour des agents pathogènes biologiquement complexes.

The Conversation

Marielena Vogel Saivish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. La dengue est un problème de plus en plus préoccupant : pourquoi est-il si difficile de la combattre avec des vaccins – https://theconversation.com/la-dengue-est-un-probleme-de-plus-en-plus-preoccupant-pourquoi-est-il-si-difficile-de-la-combattre-avec-des-vaccins-279916

Élection à Djibouti : le président vieillissant s’apprête à prolonger son mandat après avoir modifié la Constitution

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Federico Donelli, Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Trieste

Le président de Djibouti, Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, a fait adopter en octobre 2025 des modifications constitutionnelles supprimant la limite d’âge pour les candidats à l’élection présidentielle. Ces réformes lui permettent de rester éligible et de briguer un nouveau mandat au-delà de 2026. Ces modifications lui permettent de rester au pouvoir au-delà de 2026.

Guelleh est déjà au pouvoir depuis 27 ans et est assuré de remporter l’élection du 10 avril 2026, qui a été boycottée par l’opposition. Guelleh dirige un pays de la Corne de l’Afrique où la mer Rouge rencontre l’océan Indien — l’un des emplacements les plus stratégiques au monde. Federico Donelli, qui a étudié le paysage politique djiboutien, décrypte les dynamiques qui lui ont permis de se maintenir au pouvoir.

Qui est Ismaïl Omar Guelleh et quel est son style de gouvernance ?

Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, plus connu sous le nom d’IOG, est président de Djibouti depuis 1999. Il a succédé au premier président du pays, Hassan Gouled Aptidon, dont il a été le chef de cabinet pendant plus de deux décennies.

Aujourd’hui âgé de 78 ans, Guelleh est l’un des dirigeants les plus anciens d’Afrique de l’Est.

Il appartient au groupe ethnique majoritaire des Issa-Somalis, qui monopolise le pouvoir depuis que le pays a obtenu son indépendance de la France en 1977. La population de Djibouti se compose en grande partie de deux groupes principaux : les Issa-Somalis et les Afars. Cette composition démographique reflète la situation dans l’État régional d’Afar, en Éthiopie voisine. Elle se reflète encore plus fidèlement dans l’État de facto du Somaliland en raison des liens claniques et familiaux.

Par conséquent, la dynamique politique à Djibouti s’entremêle fréquemment avec les développements dans ces États voisins. Cela est particulièrement vrai en matière de sécurité, de mobilité transfrontalière et de réseaux claniques.

En théorie, Djibouti est une république présidentielle dotée d’un système multipartite. Dans la pratique, cependant, le pouvoir politique reste fortement centralisé, laissant peu de place à une véritable concurrence politique.

Le parti au pouvoir, le Rassemblement populaire pour le progrès (RPP), domine le parlement, détenant 45 des 65 sièges. La coalition pro-présidentielle au sens large, l’Union pour la majorité présidentielle (UPM), contrôle 58 sièges au total, consolidant ainsi l’influence de l’exécutif sur la sphère législative.

Les coalitions d’opposition telles que l’Union pour l’alternance démocratique (UAD) et l’Union des mouvements démocratiques (UMD) sont confrontées à des contraintes importantes. Elles ont parfois boycotté les élections. Cinq élections présidentielles et cinq élections législatives ont eu lieu depuis 1999.

Les organisations internationales soulignent fréquemment les restrictions imposées aux médias et à la dissidence publique, la majorité des médias étant contrôlés par l’État.

Guelleh doit également sa longévité à un réseau très soudé de fonctionnaires, de membres de sa famille et d’alliés politiques occupant des postes clés au sein du gouvernement et du monde des affaires. La coalition qui l’entoure n’est pas toujours totalement unifiée. Des rivalités subtiles ont émergé de temps à autre entre certaines personnalités politiques et des membres de son cercle restreint. Mais ces dynamiques ne constituent pas une menace politique.

Qu’est-ce qui explique sa longévité ?

Le mandat de Guelleh peut être attribué à une combinaison de changements institutionnels, de facteurs géopolitiques et de dynamiques au sein de l’élite.

L’un de ces éléments est la réforme constitutionnelle. Au fil des ans, le parlement djiboutien a érodé les principales garanties démocratiques de la Constitution de 1992.

La première mesure a été la suppression de la limitation du nombre de mandats présidentiels en 2010. Ces changements ont permis à Guelleh de se représenter et ont réduit la durée du mandat présidentiel de six à cinq ans.

Le vote parlementaire de novembre 2025 visant à abolir la limite d’âge pour le président s’inscrit dans la même logique. Il a supprimé la dernière restriction formelle à son éligibilité à partir d’avril 2026.

Un deuxième facteur est l’importance stratégique de Djibouti. Situé à l’entrée du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb, une voie maritime vitale reliant la mer Rouge et l’océan Indien, le pays abrite plusieurs bases militaires étrangères. Les États-Unis, la France, la Chine, le Japon et l’Italie y sont représentés.

Pour de nombreux partenaires internationaux, la stabilité du gouvernement djiboutien est considérée comme une source de prévisibilité dans une région instable.

En conséquence, les pressions extérieures en faveur d’une réforme politique ont été limitées, ce qui a, à son tour, renforcé la stabilité du pouvoir en place.

Troisièmement, la cohésion de l’élite au pouvoir joue un rôle central dans la politique intérieure. Un réseau de personnalités influentes, comprenant des membres de la famille du président, des conseillers de longue date et des figures du monde économique, s’est formé autour du leadership de Guelleh. Ce groupe contrôle des institutions étatiques clés ainsi que des secteurs importants de l’économie, ce qui constitue une forte incitation à maintenir la continuité du pouvoir.

L’économie de Djibouti repose principalement sur les services portuaires et logistiques, en particulier son port international qui dessert le commerce régional, ainsi que sur les revenus générés par l’accueil de multiples bases militaires étrangères.

Dans le même temps, l’absence de successeur ouvertement désigné a déclenché une compétition silencieuse au sein de ce cercle. La perspective d’une ère post-Guelleh a, ces dernières années, encouragé diverses personnes à chercher à accroître leur influence. Cela va des membres de la famille aux conseillers de haut rang et aux personnalités politiques.

Les rivalités émergentes ne remettent pas ouvertement en cause l’autorité du président. Elles illustrent néanmoins les dynamiques internes complexes qui sous-tendent l’ordre politique actuel.

Quelles sont ses réalisations et ses promesses ?

Au cours de ses plus de deux décennies au pouvoir, Guelleh a assuré une période de relative stabilité à Djibouti. Alors que la Somalie et l’Éthiopie voisines ont connu une insécurité persistante et des conflits internes, Djibouti est resté relativement épargné.

Le gouvernement cite fréquemment cette stabilité comme l’une des caractéristiques marquantes de son mandat.

Djibouti a également renforcé sa position de plaque tournante stratégique. La présence de nombreuses bases militaires étrangères, ainsi que d’installations portuaires et logistiques, a généré d’importantes recettes pour l’État.

Depuis 2016, les investissements et la gestion chinois ont de plus en plus façonné les principales infrastructures portuaires du pays, intégrant davantage Djibouti dans les réseaux commerciaux mondiaux. Ces facteurs ont renforcé la visibilité du pays dans les accords internationaux en matière de commerce et de sécurité.

En outre, Djibouti a joué un rôle dans la diplomatie régionale. C’est un membre important de l’Autorité intergouvernementale pour le développement (IGAD). Il s’agit de l’organisation régionale chargée de traiter les conflits liés aux ressources, à la concurrence politique et à l’identité. L’engagement le plus récent de Djibouti comprend sa participation aux tentatives de médiation du conflit au Soudan.

Le gouvernement a également mis en avant certaines réformes institutionnelles comme des marqueurs de progrès. L’abolition de la peine de mort en 2010 en est un exemple.

Cependant, les défis structurels restent importants. Djibouti a une population très jeune. Des problèmes tels que le chômage, le coût élevé de la vie et la participation politique limitée persistent.

Que nous apprend le vote sur la limite d’âge sur la politique à Djibouti ?

La décision a été adoptée sans débat public et sans voix contre parmi les 65 législateurs présents. Cela reflète à quel point l’Assemblée nationale s’aligne sur l’exécutif.

Ce vote met également en évidence le rôle central du consensus des élites dans le système politique djiboutien. Des figures clés de la coalition au pouvoir, notamment des représentants des élites Issa et des élites Afar cooptées, ont soutenu la réforme. Pour ces groupes, le maintien de la continuité du pouvoir est souvent considéré comme un moyen de préserver l’accès aux ressources économiques et politiques. Cette option est préférée aux incertitudes liées à un changement de direction.

Le fait de contourner un vote populaire sur la disposition constitutionnelle limite la possibilité d’évaluer les véritables niveaux de soutien ou d’opposition. Cela a pour effet d’exclure en particulier les jeunes citoyens qui n’ont connu qu’un seul président.

Dans l’ensemble, ce vote montre que les dispositions constitutionnelles peuvent être modifiées lorsqu’elles font obstacle à la continuité du pouvoir. Cela renforce un modèle dans lequel les règles formelles s’adaptent aux besoins politiques plutôt que de les contraindre. Cela met également en évidence l’importance de la cohésion des élites pour le maintien de l’ordre politique actuel.

À l’approche de l’élection présidentielle de 2026, le discours dominant du gouvernement reste celui de la continuité, soutenu par ceux qui considèrent la stabilité comme essentielle à la protection des intérêts nationaux et régionaux.

Cependant, les pressions socio-économiques et les inquiétudes sous-jacentes concernant la succession inévitable continuent d’influencer les attentes du public, en particulier parmi les jeunes citoyens.

Cet article a été mis à jour en prévision de l’élection de Djibouti en avril 2026.

The Conversation

Federico Donelli is affiliated with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the Nordic Africa Institute (NAI), and the Orion Policy Institute (OPI).

ref. Élection à Djibouti : le président vieillissant s’apprête à prolonger son mandat après avoir modifié la Constitution – https://theconversation.com/election-a-djibouti-le-president-vieillissant-sapprete-a-prolonger-son-mandat-apres-avoir-modifie-la-constitution-280306