Bilingualism and sex hormones may provide a new link to brain resilience and dementia risk

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Noelia Calvo, Research Associate, Neuroscience, University of Toronto

Why do some people maintain good memories and have healthy brains even as they age?

Research that my colleagues and I recently published in Alzheimer’s & Dementia: Diagnosis, Assessment & Disease Monitoring, explored the effects and interactions of social, linguistic and endocrinological factors on cognitive health.

With Canada’s aging population, the question of brain health is a relevant one. The most recent census in 2021 indicated that one in eight Canadians is aged 70 or over, and there are 1.7 million who are age 80 or older. These numbers show a growing population of older adults at increased risk of cognitive decline, highlighting the need to examine protective factors.

Previous research indicates that bilingualism may be a possible protective factor. Notably, the 2021 census indicated that bilingualism is also increasing among Canadians, with four in 10 (41 per cent) speaking more than one language.

While bilingualism may be one piece of the puzzle, other cognitive or biological factors also influence brain health. Verbal memory — the ability to remember words — has been linked to cognitive resilience. The presence of sex hormones such as estrogen and testosterone, which are present in both men and women, may also influence how the brain ages.

Studying a trio of factors

The relationship between these three factors — bilingualism, verbal memory and sex hormones — has not been studied before. To address this gap, my colleagues and I conducted a new study in Canada. We found that bilingualism may interact with verbal memory and sex hormones to influence dementia risk in unexpected ways.

Our study included data from 335 older adults with mild cognitive impairment and 170 patients with Alzheimer’s disease drawn from the Comprehensive Assessment of Neurodegeneration and Dementia (COMPASS-ND) cohort, which is part of the Canadian Consortium on Neurodegeneration and Aging.

COMPASS-ND includes more than 1,200 Canadian adults aged 50–90 years recruited across more than 30 sites nationwide. Using this rich and current database, we examined how sex hormones, verbal memory and bilingualism jointly influence cognitive resilience, brain structure and blood-based markers of Alzheimer’s disease.


This article is part of our ongoing series The Grey Revolution. The Conversation Canada and La Conversation are exploring the impact of the aging boomer generation on Canadian society, including housing, working, culture, nutrition, travelling and health care. The series explores the upheavals already underway and those looming ahead.


We created a resilience index for each participant that incorporated sex hormones, verbal memory, bilingual proficiency, education, age and immigration status. Age, education, and immigration status were included as covariates because they may influence cognitive resilience through differences in language experiences, educational opportunities and sociocultural adaptation across the lifespan.

Each unit increase in the resilience index was associated with a significant reduction in the odds of dementia-related pathology. Higher resilience index scores were also linked to better performance on clinical diagnostic tools such as the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), as well as lower levels of key markers associated with neurodegeneration and glial activation, a process in which the brain’s support cells become reactive in response to injury or disease.

Overall, bilingual participants showed the highest resilience index scores, but with notable differences in how these effects manifested across biological sex.

Our findings challenge the idea that risk and resilience can be understood by looking at biological or social factors in isolation. By studying bilingualism and sex hormones together, we reveal how these factors may interact to shape brain resilience.

Bilingualism and verbal memory

Another important finding of our study was related to verbal memory. Consistent with previous research, women showed better performance in verbal memory. This sex difference is clinically important because verbal memory is often used as a proxy for general cognitive function, meaning it can influence how dementia is diagnosed in women.

One might expect that bilingual women would be especially protected, since they have both the bilingualism benefit and strong verbal memory.

Surprisingly, our study found the opposite: bilingual men showed greater brain protection. Our findings suggested that a combination of two factors may be a mechanism behind enhanced verbal memory and cognitive resilience in aging men: aromatization — the conversion of testosterone into estradiol — and bilingual language experience.

In people with mild cognitive impairment, higher estradiol levels produced through aromatization, together with bilingualism, may work synergistically to protect verbal memory, making older bilingual men more resilient to cognitive decline and neurodegenerative pathology.

Overall, our study suggests that bilingual men may have greater resilience to neuropathology and that sex hormones could influence dementia risk in aging women. These findings underscore the need for more research on how sex hormones affect brain health, as well as the importance of using measures beyond verbal memory to improve the accuracy of cognitive decline diagnoses in Canada.

The Conversation

The research discussed in this article was supported by external funding from the Synapse Challenge award, Canadian Consortium on Neurodegeneration (CCNA). The funding period has now concluded.

ref. Bilingualism and sex hormones may provide a new link to brain resilience and dementia risk – https://theconversation.com/bilingualism-and-sex-hormones-may-provide-a-new-link-to-brain-resilience-and-dementia-risk-279490

Conflit Inde-Pakistan : la médiation impromptue de Trump embarrasse New Delhi

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Amélie Chalivet, Candidate au doctorat et chargée de cours en Relations internationales, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

En mai 2025, une brève flambée de violence entre l’Inde et le Pakistan ramène le Cachemire au centre de l’attention internationale.

Le président américain Donald Trump s’en saisit pour annoncer un cessez-le-feu qu’il présente comme « médié » par Washington. Pour New Delhi, c’est un revers diplomatique.

Pour comprendre cette réaction, il importe de tenir compte à la fois de l’histoire du conflit indo-pakistanais et des spécificités de l’approche américaine sous Donald Trump.

Le Cachemire et l’enjeu de l’internationalisation

Depuis la Partition des Indes britanniques en 1947, qui a créé deux États autonomes, l’Inde et le Pakistan, le Cachemire (région himalayenne à la jonction des deux pays) est un enjeu central source de tensions. Les deux pays se sont livré une guerre à ce sujet dès 1947. Une médiation de l’ONU, à la demande de l’Inde, avait alors permis d’aboutir à un cessez-le-feu en 1948.

En 1972, les accords de Simla marquent une rupture avec cette politique de médiation externe, en précisant que les différends seront désormais résolus par des négociations bilatérales directes. Le gouvernement indien a donc cherché, à partir de cette date, et encore davantage depuis 2019, à rejeter l’idée qu’un acteur tiers, qu’il s’agisse d’un État ou des Nations unies, puisse intervenir dans les négociations autour du Cachemire. Les accords de Simla ont depuis été utilisés comme un bouclier contre l’ingérence des grandes puissances.

Le 5 août 2019, le gouvernement indien de Narendra Modi abroge néanmoins l’Article 370 de la Constitution. Cet Article conférait à l’ancien État du Jammu-et-Cachemire un statut spécial et un certain niveau d’autonomie, ancrés dans la Constitution depuis son adhésion à l’Inde en 1947. L’abrogation de l’Article a pour conséquence de transformer le Jammu-et-Cachemire en deux territoires (Jammu-et-Cachemire d’un côté, et Ladakh de l’autre) directement administrés par le pouvoir central, dans un contexte de durcissement du contrôle étatique.

Le Cachemire a longtemps été traité comme un conflit international, ce qui légitimait par exemple l’implication de l’ONU. En supprimant le statut spécial du Jammu-et-Cachemire, New Delhi souhaitait le recadrer comme une affaire relevant strictement de l’autorité indienne.

Le Pakistan a opéré le mouvement inverse et a cherché à internationaliser encore davantage cet enjeu en faisant régulièrement référence au Cachemire dans ses discours aux Nations unies et en menaçant de suspendre les accords de Simla. C’est dans ce contexte d’opposition fondamentale sur la question de la médiation extérieure qu’entrent en jeu les événements de mai 2025.




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L’hégémonie américaine n’est pas morte. Mais elle change… et pas pour le mieux


La guerre des quatre jours et la médiation américaine

À la suite d’un violent conflit de quatre jours qui s’est déroulé dans un épais brouillard médiatique, les hostilités entre les deux États prennent fin le 10 mai 2025 avec l’annonce d’un cessez-le-feu par le président américain. Celui-ci attribue cette réussite à sa propre intervention et à son talent diplomatique.

Au-delà de cette annonce, Donald Trump se propose d’agir en tant que médiateur entre les deux pays dans le cadre de négociations sur le sujet précis du Cachemire, en invoquant un conflit « vieux d’un millier d’années » qu’il serait capable de résoudre. Or, dans la perspective indienne, cette mention de négociations internationales au sujet du Cachemire brise un tabou complet et remet en cause sa souveraineté sur ce territoire.

La médiation a fréquemment servi de voie de sortie pour des gouvernants qui ne parvenaient pas à désescalader un conflit. L’attitude du président américain, qui insiste sur son rôle personnel et multiplie les déclarations publiques, a néanmoins contribué à créer un important sentiment de malaise à New Delhi. En effet, cette médiation a été particulièrement mal reçue en Inde, perçue comme imposée et comme relevant d’une tentative d’internationalisation.

Dans les discours officiels, New Delhi a insisté sur le fait que la désescalade avait été décidée bilatéralement, que « la date, l’heure et la formulation précises de l’accord » avaient été déterminées par les directeurs généraux des opérations militaires des deux pays. Les dirigeants indiens ont continué à nier l’implication américaine tout au long de l’année, tandis que Trump aurait mentionné son rôle de « faiseur de paix » en Asie du Sud plus de soixante fois. De son côté, le premier ministre pakistanais, Shehbaz Sharif, a ouvertement remercié le président américain pour son implication et son « rôle proactif » dans la région.


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Parallèlement à cette divergence complète des narratifs, un rapprochement entre les États-Unis et le Pakistan s’est opéré, comme l’a illustré l’invitation du chef d’État-major pakistanais, Asim Munir, à la Maison-Blanche en juin 2025. Cette visite s’est accompagnée d’un soutien pakistanais à la candidature de Trump au prix Nobel de la paix, puis, plus récemment, de la mise en avant du rôle du Pakistan dans les négociations relatives au conflit au Moyen-Orient.




À lire aussi :
La politique étrangère du Canada sous Justin Trudeau : une rhétorique ambitieuse, mais des résultats modestes


La question de la médiation remise en perspective

La comparaison historique révèle une constante : la médiation internationale n’est jamais neutre. En 1966 (avant les accords de Simla), la médiation soviétique à Tachkent a permis de rétablir le statu quo ante bellum à la suite de la guerre indopakistanaise de 1965 et a donné l’opportunité à l’URSS « d’affirmer son rôle de leader dans la région ».

À la suite de la guerre de Kargil en 1999, les États-Unis ont exigé le retrait pakistanais sans se positionner en tant que médiateurs officiels, une posture alors perçue positivement par New Delhi.

Depuis, la conception qu’a l’Inde de son propre statut sur la scène internationale a évolué. Pour New Delhi, la médiation de 2025 implique une « rehyphenation » (rassemblement par un trait d’union) qui la place sur un pied d’égalité avec Islamabad. Cette évolution est ainsi perçue par l’Inde comme une remise en question de son statut, qui se perçoit plutôt comme la rivale à l’échelle de la Chine dans la région.

Par ailleurs, la forme de la médiation a compté : une médiation discrète peut permettre aux parties de « sauver la face », mais une médiation performative et médiatisée, comme celle que l’administration Trump s’est félicitée d’avoir menée en 2025, réduit l’Inde à un acteur passif. En proposant une négociation autour d’un conflit « de mille ans » et en revendiquant le prix Nobel de la paix pour ce rôle de médiateur, les États-Unis, par la voix de Trump, ont été perçus par New Delhi comme niant la capacité du pays à gérer ses propres crises.

Cette médiation n’est donc pas neutre et révèle une asymétrie structurelle ainsi qu’une compréhension mutuelle limitée entre les deux partenaires. Si le partenariat indo-américain est loin d’être rompu, cet inconfort lié à la médiation de 2025 pèse sur les relations entre les deux États, alors qu’ils tentent de conclure un accord commercial dans la foulée des tarifs imposés par Washington. Cela incite l’Inde à poursuivre la diversification de ses partenariats, aux premiers rangs desquels figurent l’Union européenne et le Canada.

La Conversation Canada

Amélie Chalivet ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Conflit Inde-Pakistan : la médiation impromptue de Trump embarrasse New Delhi – https://theconversation.com/conflit-inde-pakistan-la-mediation-impromptue-de-trump-embarrasse-new-delhi-278286

École à trois vitesses : les garçons défavorisés en paient le prix fort

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Simon Bilodeau-Carrier, Étudiant au doctorat en sciences de l’éducation, Université de Montréal

Le système scolaire québécois nourrit les inégalités. Avec ses trois filières distinctes, il répartit les élèves, notamment en fonction de leur réalité socioéconomique. Ce sont les garçons des milieux défavorisés qui en paient le prix le plus fort.


Dans son récent livre blanc « Ceux qu’on échappe », Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois détaille les effets de ce système selon plusieurs angles, soit le retard scolaire, le décrochage, la maîtrise du français et l’accès aux études supérieures.

Pour pallier ces problèmes, le député met de l’avant une réforme ambitieuse, visant à rassembler toutes les filières de l’école. Est-ce que cette réforme peut réellement réduire à la fois les inégalités scolaires et atténuer les tensions sociales émergentes ?

Je suis doctorant en sociologie de l’éducation, spécialisé dans l’étude des parcours scolaires et des inégalités qui les traversent. À ce titre, les débats entourant la ségrégation scolaire au Québec et les solutions proposées pour y remédier s’inscrivent directement dans mon champ d’expertise.

La ségrégation scolaire au Québec

Les écoles secondaires québécoises sont divisées en différentes filières. On les rassemble souvent en trois catégories, qui sont parfois appelées les « trois vitesses » du système : 1) les programmes « réguliers » des écoles publiques, 2) les programmes pédagogiques particuliers des écoles publiques (ex. sports-études) et 3) tous les programmes dispensés dans les écoles privées.

Seule la première catégorie accueille tous les types d’élèves, alors que les deux autres mobilisent des processus de sélection. En outre, plusieurs programmes particuliers et l’ensemble des écoles privées exigent que les parents paient certains frais pour que leurs enfants puissent s’inscrire. C’est ce qu’on appelle un quasi-marché scolaire.




À lire aussi :
Inclusion scolaire : des enseignants engagés, mais confrontés aux limites du terrain


En théorie, tous les élèves peuvent s’inscrire dans toutes les filières, alors qu’en pratique, les opportunités réelles varient fortement. Par exemple, les critères de sélection comme les résultats scolaires et les examens d’entrée excluent un bon nombre d’élèves, y compris plusieurs vivant des situations de handicap. D’autre part, certains programmes de sports-études demandent aux parents de payer du matériel supplémentaire, ce qui exclut d’emblée plusieurs élèves provenant de familles moins bien nanties.

Ainsi, les diverses filières d’enseignement sélectives sont souvent inaccessibles pour les élèves provenant de milieux socioéconomiques défavorisés. Il s’agit donc d’un système inéquitable et ségrégatif, notamment sur le plan socioéconomique.

En outre, bien que la reproduction des inégalités sociales dépende également de facteurs externes au système scolaire, comme le quartier ou le niveau d’éducation des parents, ce système contribue à les prolonger à long terme, dans la mesure où les élèves issus des programmes réguliers du secondaire s’inscrivent moins souvent au cégep et à l’université que les autres

Le livre blanc

L’ouvrage de Nadeau-Dubois explore l’effet de l’exclusion des filières sélectives sur les garçons provenant de milieux socioéconomiques défavorisés. L’auteur explique s’y intéresser afin d’éviter que ces frustrations n’alimentent la polarisation, la haine et l’exclusion envers les femmes.

En s’appuyant sur de nombreuses recherches et statistiques, le député solidaire met en lumière les inégalités vécues par les garçons de milieux plus modestes dans le programme « général » du système public. En moyenne, selon les données consultées, les garçons sont moins performants à l’école que les filles.




À lire aussi :
Il y a notablement moins d’hommes que de femmes à l’université. Est-ce une fatalité ?


Toutefois, les écarts observés entre les genres, par exemple dans les résultats scolaires ou par rapport à la littératie, sont systématiquement plus grands dans les milieux moins sélectifs. La conclusion est donc que la ségrégation scolaire est particulièrement nocive pour la réussite scolaire des garçons.

Devant ce constat, l’auteur met de l’avant la solution du mouvement citoyen École ensemble, voulant que le système scolaire soit unifié en une seule voie. L’idée est d’offrir à l’ensemble des élèves des programmes particuliers en lien avec leurs intérêts, sans frais et sans sélection. On abolirait ainsi le cheminement « régulier » et les écoles privées subventionnées telles qu’elles existent aujourd’hui. L’initiative prévoit que les établissements privés qui souhaiteraient maintenir leur financement gouvernemental devraient se joindre au réseau commun et donc cesser de faire de la sélection d’élèves.

Pour la suite de cet article, j’explorerai la portée de la solution proposée sous deux angles. Je détaillerai d’abord son effet sur les inégalités dans les parcours scolaires et ensuite sur les préjugés et la polarisation entre les genres.

Une solution aux opportunités d’études inégalitaires

Le chercheur en administration publique Étienne-Alexandre Beauregard critique l’approche proposée par Nadeau-Dubois. Selon lui, retirer le financement aux écoles privées refusant de se joindre au réseau réduirait la liberté de choix des élèves, tant en ce qui concerne les programmes que les établissements.

À l’opposé, certains soutiennent que la perte d’accessibilité dans quelques écoles privées serait largement compensée par un accès accru pour la majorité des élèves québécois, grâce à un réseau scolaire plus équitable.

Au-delà de ce débat de fond, comme le décrit la chercheuse en sociologie de l’éducation Véronique Grenier, la réforme proposée pourrait être contournée. Par exemple, si une école privée intègre le réseau public tout en conservant des infrastructures et des équipements supérieurs, des parents mieux nantis pourraient choisir de déménager à proximité afin d’y inscrire leurs enfants.

Ainsi, la suppression des mécanismes officiels de sélection ne constitue pas une solution complète. Des mécanismes informels risquent d’émerger et de produire des effets similaires.


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Favoriser la mixité socioéconomique des élèves

Pour éviter que la réforme ne soit contournée, elle devrait s’accompagner d’investissements importants dans les infrastructures publiques afin de les rendre aussi attrayantes que celles du secteur privé.

Cette limite renvoie plus largement au caractère structurel des inégalités scolaires. Comme le montrent plusieurs travaux en sociologie de l’éducation, celles-ci ne découlent pas uniquement des ressources matérielles des établissements, mais aussi des politiques publiques encadrant les parcours scolaires.




À lire aussi :
L’école québécoise n’offre pas la même égalité des chances et cela est inquiétant


Concrètement, lorsque certains établissements et programmes regroupent majoritairement des élèves de milieux favorisés tandis que d’autres accueillent majoritairement des élèves de milieux défavorisés, les écarts de réussite ont tendance à se creuser. À l’inverse, des structures plus intégrées, où des élèves de différents milieux sociaux fréquentent les mêmes écoles et les mêmes classes, favorisent davantage la mixité et contribuent à atténuer ces disparités.

Dans cette perspective, investir dans les infrastructures publiques demeure nécessaire, mais insuffisant. Sans transformation des mécanismes de répartition des élèves, les dynamiques de ségrégation risquent de se maintenir.

Une solution pour éviter la polarisation

Comme le souligne la professeure de sociologie Maryse Potvin, le fonctionnement même des systèmes scolaires et des écoles peut avoir des impacts sur la polarisation, l’exclusion et même parfois la radicalisation.

Les marchés scolaires, incluant les quasi-marchés scolaires comme le système québécois, sont notamment identifiés comme des vecteurs d’inégalité et de discrimination. Dans cette perspective, la solution proposée par Nadeau-Dubois paraît pertinente pour réduire la polarisation, mais il est possible d’aller plus loin.

En effet, d’autres pratiques scolaires peuvent également favoriser l’exclusion. Par exemple, certaines normes implicites, comme les façons de s’exprimer ou de participer en classe, avantagent les élèves pour qui les habitudes correspondent aux attentes de l’école. Tel que cela est présenté dans le livre blanc de Nadeau-Dubois, la socialisation des filles est souvent plus en phase avec le monde scolaire que celle des garçons. À l’inverse, les garçons peuvent être perçus comme moins engagés, ce qui peut alimenter des incompréhensions et des sentiments d’injustice. Ces attentes implicites participent donc à l’exclusion et aux problèmes scolaires des garçons.

Dans cette optique, la mise en place de l’enseignement inclusif constitue une autre piste pertinente. En valorisant la diversité des expériences, en reconnaissant différentes formes de réussites et en adaptant les pratiques pédagogiques aux besoins de l’ensemble des élèves, cet enseignement vise à réduire ces décalages et à favoriser des interactions plus équitables, contribuant à limiter les dynamiques d’exclusion.

Un bon point de départ

En somme, le livre blanc de Nadeau-Dubois produit un discours pertinent par rapport aux enjeux liés à la ségrégation scolaire dans le système québécois, particulièrement par rapport aux garçons issus de milieux défavorisés. La proposition d’un réseau unifié apparaît comme une piste prometteuse pour réduire ces écarts et limiter la ségrégation scolaire.

Toutefois, ses effets dépendront fortement des moyens qui l’accompagnent et des pratiques pédagogiques mises en place. Sans investissements et sans transformation plus large du système, les inégalités risquent simplement de se déplacer plutôt que de disparaître.

La Conversation Canada

Simon Bilodeau-Carrier est doctorant en sciences de l’éducation à l’Université de Montréal. Il est récipiendaire d’une bourse de recherche octroyée par les Fonds de recherche du Québec. Enfin, il possède une carte de membre pour le parti politique Québec Solidaire, sans toutefois y occuper un poste.

ref. École à trois vitesses : les garçons défavorisés en paient le prix fort – https://theconversation.com/ecole-a-trois-vitesses-les-garcons-defavorises-en-paient-le-prix-fort-281693

New Ontario water and sanitation law could pave the way for the financialization of public water

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Meera Karunananthan, Assistant Professor, Human Geography, Carleton University

In November 2025, the Ontario government rushed through new legislation to dramatically restructure public drinking water and wastewater services without any public consultation.

The Water and Wastewater Public Corporations Act (WCA) authorizes the province’s minister of municipal affairs and housing to remove water and wastewater services from local governments and assign them to arms-length governance structures by classifying them as “water and wastewater public corporations (WCCs).”

Despite being buried among other controversial measures in the omnibus Bill 60, the WCA drew considerable public backlash. A broad-based coalition was formed, bringing together water workers, environmental organizations, physicians and anti-poverty activists to push back against what seemed like the stealth privatization of provincial water infrastructure.

In response, Premier Doug Ford’s government tabled amendments to restrict shareholders in WCCs to “a municipality, the Province of Ontario, the Government of Canada or an agent of any of them” under Bill 98, which is now in third reading.

But University of British Columbia law professor Joel Bakan has concluded these amendments don’t rule out privatization. The possibility of shares being held by the ambiguously termed “agent” of the state opens the door for any number of public-private configurations.

Financialization

While critical details might be clarified in upcoming regulations, a troubling picture emerges when connecting the dots. Whether the WCA leads to outright privatization, its proposed reforms are consistent with an insidious global push to make municipal water and sanitation systems more amenable to private investment. This essentially transforms them into tradeable assets.

This process, known as financialization, would erode the public health and social mandate of public water infrastructure, undermining the capacity of communities to cope with growing ecological and financial stresses.

Around the world, fierce public opposition has resulted in the termination or non-renewal of private contracts in hundreds of communities around the world. Even the staunchest proponents of privatization now view water as too politically risky and insufficiently profitable for private sector engagement.

At the same time, there has been a growing appetite for “bankable” water infrastructure projects in the face of growing economic uncertainty. In response, international financial institutions and other powerful entities are pushing for policy reforms to pave the way for the integration of water into global financial markets.

Extracting profit

Privatization is not a necessary precursor to financialization. Corporatized public utilities, argues British water researcher Kate Bayliss, can perform the same function of laying the groundwork and creating revenue streams that can eventually be captured by financial markets.

In fact the World Bank, the largest funder of water projects in the Global South, promotes reforms to publicly owned and operated utilities to improve their risk-return profiles for commercial investment. In other words, public institutions are restructured to absorb risk and shift costs to local communities in order to ensure greater extraction of private profit.

The Ontario legislation follows this model by dismantling municipal services and restructuring them into arm’s-length WCCs.

By removing water and sanitation services from local control, WCCs create a more streamlined system for profit generation. Key decisions — including finances, contracts and water rates — would be made by corporate boards with little direct accountability to communities.

Deepening existing inequities

Measures that generate value for shareholders will likely take precedence over public health and equity-related considerations.

As Brock University water management expert Lina Taing warns, the proposed consolidation of operations will ultimately undermine hard-won accountability provisions. It will also diminish the “site-specific knowledge” that is central to the multi-barrier approach developed in the aftermath of the Walkerton contaminated water crisis in May 2000.

The plan would take effect most immediately in Peel Region, one of the most racially diverse municipalities in the country. By 2029, jurisdiction over water and wastewater services will be transferred from Peel to its three lower-tier municipalities, which will then be required to deliver services exclusively through a newly created WCC.

The financial implications for Peel are deeply troubling. Water and wastewater infrastructure in Peel was built over decades with public funds. Under the new Ontario law, this infrastructure would be transferred to a WCC while Peel’s existing debt remains with the municipal government.

In other words, the assets are transferred while the liabilities stay behind. Peel will be left servicing legacy debt with no corresponding revenue stream, while revenues generated from water bills flow to WCC shareholders who bear no responsibility for that debt.

This is a textbook example of what scholars describe as risk socialization and profit privatization. Simply put, the public bears the burden while shareholders capture the reward.

Flint water crisis

In the words of American geographer Laura Pulido, racialized places often become the “testing ground for new forms of neoliberal practice.”

The Flint, Mich., water crisis also began with a state-level decision to place the city under emergency management.

The unelected city manager switched the city’s drinking water source to the highly contaminated Flint River as a cost-cutting measure, but failed to ensure the water was treated with corrosion inhibitors. This caused lead to leach from aging pipes and trihalomethanes (TTHMs) to form in tap water. TTHMs are a carcinogenic by-product formed when chlorine reacts with organic matter in water.

Likewise, ongoing challenges in First Nations communities underscore the inadequacies of top-down federal initiatives to resolve the drinking water crisis with blanket solutions that are inappropriate, inadequate or unacceptable to local communities.

A recent study found high concentrations of TTHMs in tap water samples from three Manitoba First Nations reserves as a result of treatment processes that weren’t suited to local environments and climate conditions.

Stripping communities of power

Both Bill 60 and Bill 98 align with broader efforts to expand the financialization of Ontario’s public infrastructure.

The Building Ontario Fund was established precisely for the purpose of including private capital in priority infrastructure projects. Unless challenged, the new legislation will strip communities of their power to shape services according to their needs, will make it easier to extract private wealth from public infrastructure and will erode the social mandates that make public water services central to building just, equitable and sustainable societies.

Experiences with water financialization in the United Kingdom and elsewhere show an intensified form of the harms associated with water privatization.

Water rates often rise sharply to generate returns for shareholders, while revenues are paid out as dividends instead of being reinvested in system maintenance and upgrades. Over time, this can erode environmental protections, social equity and labour rights.

The Ontario government is seeking public input on Bill 98 until this Thursday.

This is an opportunity for Ontario residents to join the Ontario Federation of Agriculture, the Canadian Union of Public Employees, the Canada Green Building Council, Environmental Defence Canada and many other organizations in demanding a better future for their water systems.

The Conversation

Meera Karunananthan sits on the boards of the Blue Planet Project and Peace Brigades International- Canada. They are both volunteer positions enabling her learn from and collaborate with water defenders, organizations and networks involved in frontline struggles for water justice around the world.

ref. New Ontario water and sanitation law could pave the way for the financialization of public water – https://theconversation.com/new-ontario-water-and-sanitation-law-could-pave-the-way-for-the-financialization-of-public-water-281685

How the U.S.‑Israel war against Iran is exposing the limits of the petrodollar system

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Elliot Goodell Ugalde, PhD Candidate, Political Economy, Queen’s University, Ontario

For the first time since the Second World War, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, public debt in the United States has surpassed the entire economy’s GDP. As of late March, debt held by the public reached US$31.27 trillion, just ahead of the GDP of US$31.22 trillion.

This threshold is often treated as a long-term fiscal issue, but the economic costs of this debt are now moving to the forefront. The most immediate pressure comes from the possibility that major foreign holders of American assets begin pulling capital out of U.S. markets.

Gulf states — whose confidence in U.S. fiscal and military protection has been shaken by the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran — collectively hold roughly US$2 trillion in U.S. assets through their sovereign wealth funds.

Officials across the Gulf are already reassessing their positions. In March, one Gulf official said three of the four largest economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council were reviewing their sovereign wealth fund positions to offset the impact of the Iran war.

Why the U.S. cannot simply block a selloff

The U.S. has limited options to prevent foreign investors from selling. The freedom to enter and exit what the Federal Reserve Bank calls “the deepest and most liquid fixed-income market in the world” is exactly what makes U.S. assets attractive. That same openness creates a structural vulnerability.

The U.S. economy relies heavily on stretched asset valuationselevated prices in stocks, bonds and real estate — where market values far exceed their underlying fundamentals.

When holders lose confidence and these inflated markets correct, a run is triggered and prices fall sharply, as happened in the 2008 financial crisis. The real economy ends up paying the price.

The present situation carries similar risks. If Gulf states start selling U.S. assets amid ongoing regional instability, falling prices would reduce the value of collateral across the system.

As leveraged institutions see their balance sheets weaken, they cut borrowing and sell assets. This pushes prices down further, setting off a chain reaction that spreads financial stress internationally.

Swap lines as a stop-gap

As these pressures build, one tool has come back into focus: central bank swap lines. These are arrangements between central banks that let countries access U.S. dollars without selling their American assets. Forced selling would push prices down and spread financial stress.

During the 2008 crisis, the Fed used swap lines as an emergency backup to extend dollar liquidity to banks and governments that suddenly needed it.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said that several American allies in the Gulf region and Asia had requested swap lines, saying the arrangements would prevent the “disorderly” sale of U.S. assets.

But where does this dollar liquidity come from? For decades, the global role of the U.S. dollar allowed it to spend more than it earned, while other countries earned dollars through trade and invested them back into U.S. markets. Gulf states were central to this, using oil revenues to buy U.S. bonds, stocks, real estate and weapons.

This was part of a broader arrangement known as the petrodollar system, which traces back to a 1974 agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Oil was priced in U.S. dollars, money flowed into the U.S. and in return Gulf countries received political and military backing.

This allowed the Federal Reserve to expand the money supply through quantitative easing at home and by extending liquidity into the global system through swap lines.

Though this can stabilize markets in the short term, it also deepens reliance on repeated intervention, buying time rather than resolving underlying pressures.

A fracturing arrangement

The petrodollar system only works as long as Gulf states keep sending money back into U.S. markets. Swap lines reverse that condition: dollars must now flow to the Gulf instead of from it.

Iran’s pressure campaign on Gulf states, including attacks on economic assets and leveraging the Strait of Hormuz, are creating uncertainty in oil markets, government budgets and regional stability.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds have responded by placing greater emphasis on liquidity and flexibility.

The United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC on May 1 shows how far the old energy-financial bargain has fractured. Gulf states now want more control over production, revenue and liquidity than the cartel system allows. The move also likely reflects U.S. pressure to bring oil prices down in the short term.




Read more:
The UAE is leaving the OPEC oil cartel. What could that mean for oil prices?


That strategy cannot last. Lower oil prices may help the U.S. and other importers in the short run, but Gulf states still depend on strong revenues to fund budgets, sovereign wealth funds and diversification.

Gulf states are also signalling a willingness to expand the use of alternative currencies, including China’s yuan, for portions of their oil trade if regional instability disrupts dollar liquidity. The shift would merely accelerate the growing trend among emerging economies to move away from U.S. dollar dependence.

Extending swap lines to Gulf states may slow that process, but it may not be enough to reverse the currency diversification already underway.

A system under pressure

The global financial system was already moving toward greater fragmentation and weaker reliance on the U.S. dollar long before the Iran war.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalation with Iran has accelerated that process by shaking confidence in the political and military foundations that sustained the petrodollar system for decades.

Behind the scenes, policymakers are increasingly relying on swap lines, monetary expansion and emergency co-ordination measures to stabilize dollar liquidity and reassure allies. These tools were once reserved for acute crises, but are now becoming part of the normal functioning of the system and undermining U.S. asset credibility.

Underlying all of this is a global economy shaped by decades of financialization, growing dependence on inflated asset markets and mounting geopolitical rivalry, all of which are placing increasing strain on the old U.S. centred order.

The Conversation

Elliot Goodell Ugalde is affiliated with the Centre for International and Defence Policy.

Natalie Braun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How the U.S.‑Israel war against Iran is exposing the limits of the petrodollar system – https://theconversation.com/how-the-u-s-israel-war-against-iran-is-exposing-the-limits-of-the-petrodollar-system-282226

Hacking the bomb? What Claude Mythos AI reveals about the gamble of nuclear deterrence

Source: The Conversation – France – By Thomas Fraise, Postdoctoral research fellow, University of Copenhagen; Sciences Po

Frontier AI-first cybersecurity platforms like OpenAI’s “Daybreak” and Anthropic’s newest Claude “Mythos” model are at the forefront of artificial intelligence but their advanced capabilities in offensive cybersecurity are a source of both fascination and concern.

Gguy/Shutterstock

In 1983, the film WarGames imagined a teenager who accidentally accessed a Pentagon computer system and triggered a simulation program, subsequently interpreted as the prelude to a nuclear war. The film made such an impression on Ronald Reagan that he asked his advisers whether such an intrusion into America’s most sensitive systems was possible. A week later, the answer came: “Mr. President, the problem is far worse than you think.”

Nuclear weapons policies are based on a series of bets, often far-reaching, on the future of nuclear deterrence. First, nuclear-armed countries gamble that the fear of retaliation will always be enough to prevent an adversary from striking first, and that they will always have the expertise and luck necessary to prevent accidental explosions. They bet that possessing nuclear weapons will remain a source of security rather than insecurity in decades to come.

However, as my colleagues Sterre van Buuren and Benoît Pelopidas and myself demonstrate, there are several plausible future scenarios in which possessing nuclear weapons will generate more real costs than potential benefits in a world that has warmed by several degrees. Maintaining a credible and safe arsenal will require budgetary choices at the expense of other urgent spending made necessary by the climate crisis.

The universe of existential risks that could justify the use of nuclear weapons may also be expanding. For example, experts worry that water shortages in Pakistan and India could become fertile ground for a conflict leading to nuclear escalation.

But there is another, more implicit bet involved here: that nuclear arsenals, which are complex, highly digitalised technological systems, offer no cyber vulnerabilities that could be exploited by an actor seeking to disrupt their normal functioning.

The recent breakthrough of Anthropic’s latest AI model Claude Mythos reveals just how much the conditions of that bet could change in the long term.

Mythos and the future of cybersecurity

“Mythos” was launched on April 7 2026 by the public benefit corporation Anthropic – which markets the Claude series of large language models (LLMs). This model, which has not been commercially released but made available to a restricted working group composed of around a dozen major American tech giants (Google, Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Amazon Web Services, etc.), reportedly achieves an unprecedented success rate in detecting vulnerabilities in computer systems.

Mythos reportedly succeeded in detecting “zero-day” vulnerabilities in various web browsers, software, and operating systems with an impressive success rate.

A “zero-day” vulnerability is a critical security flaw in an information system for which no protection yet exists, making attacks possible with effectively “zero days” available to respond. According to Anthropic, Mythos managed to develop methods for exploiting these vulnerabilities in record time – likely in less than a day – with a success rate of 72.4%.

Although this information comes from the company itself – which has every incentive to exaggerate its results – some public evidence has been provided.

Sylvestre Ledru, Mozilla’s engineering director responsible for the Firefox browser, stated that Mythos helped uncover an “absolutely staggering” number of vulnerabilities in their software. For example, a nearly twenty-seven-year-old security flaw which had survived numerous audits was discovered in an open-source operating system widely used by cybersecurity services, OpenBSD.

Mythos sheds light on a larger phenomenon: that the increase in offensive capabilities – not only among states but also private actors such as cybercriminals – in the cyberspace could be accelerated by AI development, while uncertainty is emerging about whether defensive actors can react quickly enough to patch existing vulnerabilities.

Even if Mythos does not fully live up to the announced performance levels, the development of LLMs since the early 2020s has shown how rapidly their capabilities improve. We are therefore facing an acceleration in the development of offensive capabilities and their diffusion to a broader range of actors. This means a potentially rising probability of successful cyberattacks, as well as an increase in their absolute number.

The vulnerability of nuclear arsenals

To understand the vulnerability of nuclear weapons to cyberattacks, one must remember that a “nuclear arsenal” means far more than a stockpile of warheads. The normal operation of modern nuclear arsenals depends on a vast configuration of technologies: nuclear warheads, the missiles capable of delivering them, communication technologies ensuring that orders are transmitted from the President to the operator responsible for launching the weapons, as well as early warning systems designed to monitor the skies for signs of a potential enemy nuclear strike. These elements must communicate with one another to ensure control over the weapons.

And there are more of those than one might think. As Herbert Lin, a Stanford University researcher and author of a study on cyber threats and nuclear weapons, notes, the “nuclear button” metaphor is oversimplified: once the president presses it, a whole series of “cyber-buttons” must also be pressed to trigger and manage nuclear operations – each representing another point where cyberattacks could interfere, for example by preventing critical information from arriving.

The President might not receive enough information – or any at all – to determine that an attack is underway. Or he might be unable to communicate launch orders to submarine forces. Worse still, the nightmare scenario imagined since the 1950s could occur: a false launch order could be transmitted to missile operators.

The scenarios do not even need to be that extreme: the order might be transmitted with delays, or not transmitted to all forces, resulting in weaker retaliation than intended. The retaliation itself might be blocked: in 2010, an American command center lost communication with around fifty nuclear missiles for nearly an hour. An adversary could exploit such weaknesses.

Alternatively, a large-scale cyberattack carried out by non-state actors could create the impression that an adversary is targeting our nuclear arsenal, creating a risk of inadvertent escalation. Similarly, an attack on command-and-control systems related to conventional operations could be interpreted as endangering a state’s nuclear arsenal if those systems happened to be integrated.

One can also imagine cyber operations targeting the weapons themselves – the hardware rather than the software of the arsenal. Of course, nuclear security actors are not simply waiting for attacks to happen. They continuously develop and test defensive capabilities. The problem is that the complexity of existing systems makes it impossible to state with certainty that no vulnerabilities exist.

As James Gosler, formerly in charge of the security of American nuclear systems at Sandia National Laboratories, explains, beginning in the 1980s, the exponential increase in the complexity of components inside nuclear weapons meant that:

“you could no longer make the statement that any of these micro-controlled systems [used to ensure the functioning of the detonation mechanism] were vulnerability-free.”

That does not mean vulnerabilities necessarily exist. But it does mean that no actor can know for certain whether they do. So, should we fear that nuclear arsenals could one day be “hacked”?

In truth, we do not know. Such scenarios are possible: no large, complex information system can be guaranteed with total certainty to be completely reliable. The evolution of cyberattack tools, and their potential diffusion among a wide range of state and non-state actors, makes this kind of future scenario potentially more likely and, in any case, plausible.

A new bet on the future

Mythos highlights a new dimension to the nuclear gamble, born from the development of new technologies and their integration into nuclear arsenals.

First, we are betting on the absence of vulnerabilities within these systems – even though it is impossible to measure that probability with certainty. It changes over time as systems are updated, replaced, and connected to others. If vulnerabilities nevertheless exist, we then bet that advances in offensive cyber capabilities will always be matched, and matched in time, by advances in defensive capabilities – even in the age of artificial intelligence. Once again, that probability cannot be determined, because defensive capability development is often reactive: it depends on our knowledge of offensive capabilities and existing vulnerabilities, both of which are inherently uncertain.

We are therefore betting that our defences against cyberattacks – and those of other nuclear-armed states – will be enough. Otherwise, we are betting that luck will remain on our side and that existing vulnerabilities will not be discovered – like the one that existed for 27 years in OpenBSD’s code. It is a gamble on luck because, in this scenario, what saves us is the adversary’s inability or unwillingness, over which we have no control, to develop effective capabilities.

The ability of existing control practices to fulfil their role has become more uncertain with the arrival of large AI models capable of detecting vulnerabilities and designing cyberattacks on a massive and automated scale. Choosing a security policy based on nuclear weapons therefore amounts to betting that, in the future just as in the past, luck will always remain on our side.

The Conversation

This work has been supported by the European Research Council Consolidator Grant no. 101043468, RITUAL DETERRENCE. Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council.

ref. Hacking the bomb? What Claude Mythos AI reveals about the gamble of nuclear deterrence – https://theconversation.com/hacking-the-bomb-what-claude-mythos-ai-reveals-about-the-gamble-of-nuclear-deterrence-282614

Comment les sols-ils sont devenus un enjeu climatique ? Le regard de la sociologie

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Céline Granjou, directrice de recherches, Inrae

Longtemps pensés uniquement à l’aune de leur fertilité, les sols sont aujourd’hui redécouverts pour leur statut de puits de carbone. Autrement dit, leur capacité à séquestrer le carbone en fait des contributeurs de premier plan à la lutte contre le changement climatique. Une étude sociologique menée auprès de scientifiques, politiques et acteurs publics territoriaux met en évidence cette redéfinition climatique des sols et ses conséquences concrètes.


Si le rôle climatique des forêts comme puits de carbone est connu depuis les années 1990, celui des sols l’est moins. Ces derniers contiennent pourtant trois fois plus de carbone et jouent un rôle clef dans son cycle global. Lors de la COP21 à Paris en 2015, le gouvernement français avait lancé l’initiative 4 pour 1000 afin d’encourager les agricultrices et agriculteurs à séquestrer du carbone dans les sols.

En augmentant les stocks de carbone des sols, la démarche visait à compenser les émissions fossiles tout en améliorant la qualité des sols. Mais la capacité des sols à séquestrer du carbone requiert l’adoption de pratiques agricoles spécifiques : implantation de couverts végétaux, réduction du labour, plantation de haies ou d’arbres, ou encore restitution à la terre des résidus de cultures comme les pailles. La préservation des zones humides, des forêts et des prairies, dont les sols sont particulièrement riches en carbone, contribue aussi à atténuer le changement climatique.

Comment ces diverses pratiques de séquestration du carbone modifient-elles les conceptions des sols ? L’équipe du projet ANR Posca a mené une vaste enquête sociologique pour répondre à cette question. À la clé, plus de 250 entretiens approfondis avec des scientifiques, des décideurs publics, des agents de collectivités territoriales et des acteurs agricoles.

Cette enquête montre que l’essor des pratiques de séquestration s’accompagne d’une redéfinition climatique des sols. Longtemps considérés principalement sous l’angle de la fertilité agricole, les sols sont désormais également vus comme des puits de carbone. Et cela, dans une large gamme de mondes sociaux : la recherche scientifique, mais également les politiques agricoles nationales et les territoires.




À lire aussi :
Piéger le carbone dans le sol : ce que peut l’agriculture


Des recherches pour penser les sols à l’aune du climat

Il y a plusieurs décennies que les scientifiques travaillent sur le carbone des sols, souvent appréhendé en termes de matière organique ou d’humus. Ce carbone est en effet essentiel dans la fertilité des sols. Mais depuis le début des années 1990, une partie de leurs recherches se focalise désormais sur la description et la modélisation du rôle que joue le carbone des sols dans le changement climatique.

Les chercheurs ont notamment adapté leurs questions de recherche afin d’interroger les processus qui permettent de stabiliser le carbone dans les sols. Cela a permis de faire évoluer les modèles représentant ces mécanismes, dans le but de contribuer à améliorer les scénarios climatiques. Ils ont également créé de nouvelles infrastructures de surveillance des stocks de carbone dans les sols à l’échelle nationale, et noué de nouvelles collaborations avec les sciences du climat.

Les enjeux climatiques ont par ailleurs conduit les scientifiques des sols à produire de nouveaux travaux d’expertise, à la fois dans le cadre du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) à l’échelle internationale, mais aussi à l’échelle nationale, pour estimer le potentiel de stockage du carbone dans les sols. Ces réorientations de leurs travaux permettent de fournir des éléments d’appui aux politiques publiques et aux développements économiques liés à la séquestration du carbone.

Les chercheuses et chercheurs ont ainsi transformé leurs agendas et pratiques de recherche pour produire des connaissances qu’ils estiment utiles à la lutte contre le changement climatique. Mais cela n’a pas été sans créer de nouvelles tensions au sein de cette discipline, notamment autour de la question de la non-permanence du carbone dans les sols.

Des crédits carbone pour les sols agricoles qui stockent

De nouvelles conceptions climatiques des sols sont également véhiculées par l’initiative du 4 pour 1000, depuis sa publication fin 2015 par le ministère de l’Agriculture. Cette initiative tire son nom du calcul selon lequel augmenter tous les ans d’environ 0,4 % le stock global de carbone contenu dans les sols permettrait de compenser l’augmentation annuelle des émissions de gaz à effet de serre.

Plus récemment, une étude coordonnée par Inrae a permis de préciser le potentiel de séquestration des sols nationaux. Celui-ci équivaut à environ 40 % des émissions de gaz à effet de serre du secteur agricole en France – soit 6,5 % du total des émissions nationales. Certes, c’est loin de pouvoir compenser l’ensemble des émissions nationales de gaz à effet de serre, mais cela reste une contribution bienvenue à l’effort d’atténuation, que le gouvernement souhaite encourager.

Cette promesse de séquestration est d’autant plus mise en avant aujourd’hui qu’elle permet de repositionner le secteur agricole comme solution au changement climatique, dans une période où celui-ci est fortement critiqué – quand bien même le secteur reste émetteur net de gaz à effet de serre.

Le gouvernement français a ainsi lancé son label bas carbone (LBC) fin 2018. Cadre de certification des réductions d’émissions et des pratiques séquestrantes, il vise, entre autres, à rétribuer les efforts des agriculteurs qui adoptent de nouvelles pratiques vertueuses. Il permet notamment d’attester du nombre de tonnes de carbone séquestrées, pour que les agriculteurs puissent vendre les crédits carbone correspondant à des entreprises ou des collectivités. Le principe est celui du marché carbone : ces acheteurs pourront, à leur tour, alléguer d’une contribution à l’effort d’atténuation du changement climatique.

Le label bas carbone contribue à véhiculer une vision des sols agricoles comme puits de carbone optimisables grâce aux changements de pratiques agricoles. Pour autant, son impact reste actuellement limité, car les projets qui en relèvent mobilisent finalement très peu la séquestration du carbone, mais plutôt des pratiques de réduction des émissions.

Des collectivités qui quantifient le carbone dans leurs sols

Depuis 2016, une nouvelle législation exige par ailleurs que les collectivités de plus de 20 000 habitants évaluent le potentiel de séquestration de carbone par les forêts et les sols. Elles doivent ainsi concevoir un plan climat air énergie territorial (PCAET) qui mesure, entre autres, la quantité de carbone contenu dans les sols et détaille des stratégies possibles pour augmenter ces stocks. La réglementation reste cependant muette sur les moyens et les outils utiles pour quantifier et gérer les stocks de carbone des sols.

Dans ce contexte, les collectivités territoriales mobilisent divers instruments de quantification du carbone des sols. Les analyses de terre étant longues et coûteuses à mettre en œuvre, ces outils reposent généralement sur des données et des modèles numériques qui prédisent l’évolution des stocks de carbone en fonction de différents scénarios de gestion.

L’Ademe a par exemple développé l’outil Aldo, qui permet aux fonctionnaires territoriaux et aux bureaux d’études d’obtenir aisément des valeurs de stocks de carbone.

Agro-Transfert, un organisme de recherche et développement agricole, a également créé l’outil Simeos-AMG. Initialement pensé pour aider les agriculteurs à conserver des sols fertiles et riches en matière organique, il est désormais mobilisé par les professionnels agricoles pour connaître l’impact carbone de leurs pratiques, ainsi que par certaines administrations territoriales pour concevoir leur plan climat air énergie territorial. Le carbone des sols devient ainsi un nouvel objet d’action publique dans les territoires.

Vers une redéfinition climatique des sols

Notre recherche a ainsi mis en lumière la façon dont les sols se trouvent redéfinis à l’aune des enjeux climatiques, que ce soit dans les mondes de la recherche scientifique, des politiques agricoles nationales ou des territoires. Nos résultats montrent que cette climatisation des sols se traduit d’ores et déjà concrètement par de nouvelles pratiques, des engagements et des instruments inédits qui se développent.

Les sols ne sont par ailleurs pas réduits au rôle de simples réservoirs de carbone à optimiser. L’enquête révèle que nombre d’acteurs, en particulier scientifiques, rappellent que ce carbone à séquestrer peut être relargué dans l’atmosphère, notamment si les pratiques agricoles de séquestration ne sont pas maintenues sur le long terme.

De ce fait, il est crucial d’inscrire ces changements dans le long terme. Et cela d’autant plus que ces pratiques sont aussi alignées avec des gains en termes de fertilité et de qualité des sols, les principales préoccupations dont ils faisaient jusqu’ici l’objet. La redéfinition climatique des sols relie ainsi les questions d’atténuation climatique avec les questions de maintien de la fertilité agricole et de conservation de la qualité des sols.

The Conversation

Céline Granjou a reçu des financements de l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche pour le projet ANR-20-CE26-0016

Antoine Doré a reçu des financements de l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche.

Hélène Guillemot a reçu des financements de l’ANR pour le projet POSCA.

Laure Manach a reçu des financements de l’Agence nationale de la recherche et de la Fondation TTI.5.

Léo Magnin a reçu des financements de Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) dans le cadre du projet POSCA.

Robin Leclerc a reçu des financements de l’ANR

Stéphanie Barral a reçu des financements de l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche.

ref. Comment les sols-ils sont devenus un enjeu climatique ? Le regard de la sociologie – https://theconversation.com/comment-les-sols-ils-sont-devenus-un-enjeu-climatique-le-regard-de-la-sociologie-281474

Suspending federal gas tax wouldn’t save drivers as much as they might hope – here’s what goes into the price of a gallon of gas

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Robert I. Harris, Assistant Professor of Economics, Georgia Institute of Technology

Gas taxes – federal and state – make up only a small piece of the price of a gallon of gas. AP Photo/Jenny Kane

With gasoline prices still high – averaging over US$4.50 a gallon in mid-May 2026 – President Donald Trump said he wanted Congress to suspend the federal gas tax, which is 18.4 cents a gallon for gasoline and 24.3 cents a gallon for diesel. A bill has been introduced in the Senate, and one is expected to follow in the House, according to Politico, but their fate is unclear.

States also charge their own taxes, ranging from 70.9 cents a gallon for gas in California to 8.95 cents in Alaska. Indiana, Georgia and Utah have suspended their gas taxes for at least some of 2026, and other states are considering similar measures.

As an energy economist, I have seen how suspending those taxes does reduce prices, but not as much as politicians – or drivers – might hope. Research on past gas tax holidays has found that consumers get about 79% of the reduction in gas taxes. That means oil companies and fuel retailers keep about one-fifth of the tax cut for themselves rather than passing that savings to the public.

Suspending the federal gas tax, which would require Congress to pass a law, wouldn’t help consumers much anyway. Even if oil companies passed on the whole savings to consumers, national average gas and diesel prices would drop only about 4%. The percentage reduction in high-cost states such as California would be even smaller.

Gas taxes are just one part of what drives gas prices. Overall, the price of a retail gallon of gas is the sum of four things: the cost of crude oil, refining, distribution and marketing, and taxes.

In nationwide figures from January 2026, crude oil accounted for about 51% of the pump price, refining roughly 20%, distribution and marketing about 11% and taxes about 18%. That mix shifts with conditions: When crude oil prices spike, that can drive more than 60% of the price; when the price drops, taxes and logistics are larger shares of the cost.

Crude oil is the biggest ingredient

Because the price of crude oil is the largest element, most of the price at the pump is derived from the global oil market.

Usually, big swings in crude prices come mainly from shifts in global demand and expectations – not from supply disruptions, according to widely cited research in 2009 by the economist Lutz Kilian.

But what is happening in early 2026 with the war in Iran is one of the exceptions: a classic supply shock. Severe disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Middle East oil infrastructure have taken millions of barrels a day off the global market.

Most drivers generally can’t quickly reduce how much they drive or how much gas they use when prices rise, so gasoline demand doesn’t change much in the short run. That means a jump in crude costs tends to result in people paying more rather than driving less.

Refining, regulations and the California puzzle

Refining turns crude into gasoline at industrial scale. The U.S. doesn’t have a single gasoline market, though. Roughly a quarter of U.S. gasoline is a cleaner-burning blend of petroleum-derived chemicals called “reformulated gasoline,” which is required in urban areas across 17 states and the District of Columbia to reduce smog.

California uses an even stricter formulation that few out-of-state refineries make. California is also geographically isolated: No pipelines bring gasoline in from other U.S. refining regions.

California’s gasoline prices have long run above the national average, explained in part by higher state taxes and stricter environmental rules. But since a refinery fire in Torrance, California, in 2015 reduced production capacity, the state’s prices have been about 20 to 30 cents a gallon higher than what those factors would indicate.

Energy economist and University of California, Berkeley, professor Severin Borenstein has called this the “mystery gasoline surcharge” and attributes it to the fact that there isn’t as much competition between refineries or gas stations in California as in other states. California’s own Division of Petroleum Market Oversight says the surcharge cost the state’s drivers about $59 billion from 2015 to 2024. It’s not exactly clear who is getting that money, but it could be gas stations themselves or refineries, through complex contracts with gas stations.

A person stands near a long metal truck in front of a gas station.
A tanker truck delivers fuel to a gas station.
AP Photo/Erin Hooley

Getting the gas into your car

The distribution and marketing category covers the costs of everything involved in getting the gasoline from the refinery gate to your tank.

Gasoline moves by pipeline, ship, rail and truck to wholesale terminals, and then by local delivery truck to service stations.

At the retailer’s end, the key factors are station rent and labor, the cost to buy gasoline in bulk to be able to sell it, credit card fees of as much as 6 to 10 cents a gallon at current prices, and franchise fees paid to the national brand, such as Sunoco or ExxonMobil, for permission to put their branding on the gas station.

Most gas station operators net only a few cents per gallon on fuel itself – which is why many gas stations are really convenience stores with pumps out front. Borenstein and some of his collaborators have also documented that retail gas prices rise quickly when wholesale costs climb but fall slowly when wholesale costs drop.

The question of gas tax holidays

Gas tax holidays reduce funding for what the taxes are designed to pay for, typically roads and bridges. That pushes road and bridge upkeep costs onto future drivers and general taxpayers.

There is an additional problem, too: Taxes on gasoline are supposed to charge drivers for some of the costs their driving imposes on everyone else – carbon emissions, local air pollution, congestion and crashes. But Borenstein has found that U.S. fuel tax levels are already far below the true cost to society. Removing the tax on drivers effectively raises the costs for everyone else.

A fisherman holds a pole in the foreground as an oil tanker sails by at sunset
Suspending the Jones Act allows foreign-based oil tankers to sail between U.S. ports.
AP Photo/Eric Gay

The Jones Act: A small number that adds up

The 1920 Jones Act is a federal law that requires cargo moving between U.S. ports to travel on vessels built and registered in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed primarily by U.S. citizens and permanent residents. Of the world’s 7,500 oil tankers, only 54 meet this requirement. Only 43 of these can transport refined fuels such as gasoline.

So, despite significant refining capacity on the Gulf Coast, some U.S. gasoline is exported overseas even as the Northeast imports fuel, in part reflecting the relatively high cost of moving fuel between U.S. ports.

Economists Ryan Kellogg and Rich Sweeney estimate that the law raises East Coast gasoline prices by about a penny and a half per gallon on average, costing drivers roughly $770 million a year. In light of the war’s effect on gas prices, the Trump administration has temporarily suspended the Jones Act requirements – an action more commonly taken when hurricanes knock out Gulf Coast refineries and pipeline networks.

What moves the number

The result of all these factors is that the price that drivers see at the pump mostly reflects the global price of crude, plus a stack of domestic costs, only some of which are inefficient.

Tax holidays give a partial, short-lived rebate. Jones Act waivers trim pennies, though permanent repeal may cause more fundamental changes, such as reduced rail and truck transport of all goods, which could lower costs, emissions and infrastructure damage associated with cargo transportation. Harmonizing fuel blends across states and seasons may lower prices somewhat, but likely at the expense of increased emissions.

Ultimately, the best protection against oil price shocks is a more efficient gas-burning vehicle, or one that doesn’t burn gasoline at all. In the meantime, the best I can offer as an economist is clarity about what that $4.50 actually buys.

This article includes material previously published on May 1, 2026.

The Conversation

Robert I. Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Suspending federal gas tax wouldn’t save drivers as much as they might hope – here’s what goes into the price of a gallon of gas – https://theconversation.com/suspending-federal-gas-tax-wouldnt-save-drivers-as-much-as-they-might-hope-heres-what-goes-into-the-price-of-a-gallon-of-gas-282702

Is your AI chatbot manipulating you? Subtly reshaping your opinions?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Richard Lachman, Director, Zone Learning & Professor, Digital Media, Toronto Metropolitan University

A billboard tries to sell you something. So does a used car salesman. But no matter how smooth the pitch, you’re quite aware of the profit motive, and you can walk away at any time.

What if that pitch is invisible, plays to your unique fears and vanities, and is delivered in a voice that sounds like a trusted friend? Generative AI has changed the equation of persuasion entirely: chatbots can now deliver a personalized, adaptive and targeted message, informed by the most intimate details of your life.

Large language models (LLMs) can hyper-target messages by drawing from your social media posts and photos. They can mine hundreds of previous chatbot conversations in which you asked for relationship advice, discussed your parenting fails and shared your health concerns and financial woes. They can also learn from each interaction, refining their manipulation in real time, targeting your unique and individual tastes, preferences and vulnerabilities.

Studies show this kind of personalized content to be 65 per cent more persuasive than messages from humans or from non-personalized AI. It is four times as effective at changing political opinions as advertising. It could be a powerful tool for social change — used for the good, or for nefarious purposes.

This makes one feature especially troubling: Each conversation is private. It is not monitored, never audited and doesn’t happen in the public eye.

This isn’t advertising. It’s something we don’t have words for yet, and we’re living inside it.

Convincing arguments

In my book Digital Wisdom: Searching for Agency in the Age of AI, I explore how large language models introduce a new frontier in persuasion — one where AI systems can draw upon a huge amount of data about the world, language and you to tailor a highly personalized pitch.

Consider how this might work: You’re a nurse. Through your employer’s AI platform, you’ve shared your sleep problems, burnout and the financial stress of a recent divorce. Now the hospital is short-staffed and offering shifts at a reduced rate calculated by software they license.

You ask the AI chatbot whether you should take them. It knows you’re exhausted. It knows you’re behind on bills. It knows exactly which argument could convince you one way or the other. Who is it working for in that moment?

As companies like Meta and IBM explore how AI can hyper-personalize ads for specific audiences, the dividing line between tools that help users find what they genuinely want, and those that manipulate them against their interests, becomes increasingly important.

Friend or stranger?

Let’s look at another example. Imagine the following messages from your favourite AI chatbot or companion:

I noticed your sleep patterns haven’t been great lately, averaging only 5.4 hours, with lots of restless periods. That’s common when dealing with relationship stress. Your partner just went back to work and 76 per cent of couples experience strain during career transitions.

A new sleep medication has shown effectiveness for relationship-linked insomnia. Your insurance would cover it with just a $15 contribution. Would you like me to schedule a telehealth appointment for tomorrow at 2 p.m.? I see you have a break in your schedule.

This might feel great, like advice from a thoughtful friend who knows you well. It might also feel terrifying, as if a manipulative stranger has read your diary.

Given that people are increasingly turning to AI for medical or mental health advice, despite studies showing this advice to be problematic almost 50 per cent of the time, a manipulative stranger could cause real harm.

The danger here isn’t just the precision of the targeting. This content is also impossible to police. What you view can’t be tracked by watchdogs, since you’re the only person who ever sees it.

While governments don’t typically police the content of political ads, beyond transparency about their funding, we often rely on public outcry and the media to expose campaigns that spread falsehoods. If an AI personalizes every message for an individual, there is no trace left behind.

Reshaping our worldview

Perhaps most concerning is that these systems could gradually reshape our worldview over time.

Scholars have long argued that the algorithms used by social networking sites and search engines create filter bubbles, in which we are fed well-crafted text, video and audio content that either reinforces our worldview or exerts influence towards someone else’s.

The text 'Meet your thinking partner' is displayed on a dark computer screen with the Claude logo.
Are AI chatbots like Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini and DeepSeek helping you think, or subtly shaping your thoughts?
(Unsplash)

By controlling what information we see and how it’s presented, AI systems could slowly shift how we think about and interpret the world around us, and even change our understanding of reality itself.

This capability becomes particularly concerning when combined with emotional manipulation. Vendors suggest their AI systems can gauge a user’s emotional state through text analysis, voice patterns or facial expressions, and adjust their persuasive strategies accordingly.

Are you feeling vulnerable? Lonely? Angry? The system could modify its approach to exploit those emotional states. Even more troubling, it could deliberately cultivate certain emotional states to make its persuasion more effective.

Preliminary research shows that AI models tend to flatter users, affirming their users’ actions 50 per cent more than other humans do, even when the actions involve potential harms. Further research shows that chatbots use deliberate emotional manipulation strategies — such as “guilt appeals” and “fear-of-missing-out hooks” — to keep us chatting when we try to say goodbye.

There have also been cases of AI chatbots allegedly endangering users, encouraging suicidal thoughts or giving detailed advice on how a user could harm themselves.

The guardrails set up by corporations to protect users from harm have also proven surprisingly easy to bypass.

Design matters

Persuasion is not a side effect of technology — it’s often the point. Every interface, every notification, every design decision carries with it an intent to influence behaviour.

Sometimes that influence is welcome: reminders to take medication, encouragement to exercise or nudges to donate blood that reinforce values we already hold. But sometimes persuasion serves someone else’s agenda — nudging us to buy, to scroll, to work harder or to give up privacy.

The same persuasive techniques can empower or exploit, depending on who controls the system, what goals they pursue and whether they have meaningful consent.

Design matters. Whether in public health, the workplace or daily life. We must ask hard questions about intent, agency and power. Who benefits from a design? Who is being persuaded and do they know it?

The technologies we build should support reflective choice, not undermine it. As AI continues to shape how we think, feel and act, our ethical obligations grow sharper: to create systems that are transparent, that prioritize user dignity and that reinforce our capacity for independent judgment. We don’t just need innovation — we need wisdom.

The Conversation

Richard Lachman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Is your AI chatbot manipulating you? Subtly reshaping your opinions? – https://theconversation.com/is-your-ai-chatbot-manipulating-you-subtly-reshaping-your-opinions-280800

How structural inequality fuels Black youth recruitment into cycles of violence

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Marycarmen Lara Villanueva, PhD Candidate, Department of Social Justice Education, Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto

What would it take to stop Black boys from disappearing into drug trafficking networks across northern Ontario? Not more policing, argues prison abolitionist and scholar Ruth Wilson Gilmore, but more safe housing, funded schools and community spaces where youth can gather safely.

That is what a growing body of Black community leaders is arguing in response to a crisis that The Fifth Estate documentary Missing Black Boys brought into national view in January: Black boys as young as 14 are lured into gangs and sent to remote parts of the province to sell drugs.

Youth gang recruitment is not a matter of individual choice or criminality, but one shaped by inequality, institutional neglect and racialized perceptions. And punishment alone cannot solve it.

Indigenous youth from northern reserves, where some communities have declared a state of emergency, are also part of this troubling reality. The same conditions that leave Black boys vulnerable to recruitment into exploitative and violent economies leave Indigenous youth vulnerable too.

Anishinaabe journalist and author Tanya Talaga has described this as an insidious web of drug-related violence in which Indigenous and Black youth are disproportionately impacted.

Black leaders respond

In recent months, community leaders, educators and public workers have come together to ask what makes Black youth vulnerable to recruitment, and what kinds of structural interventions can prevent it?

Black boys are not just going missing. They are being drawn into exploitative economies and transnational and intercity webs of violence. Recruitment often begins on social media, where older youth lure boys with promises of fast money.

Until recently, media outlets did not pay enough attention to these cases, reflecting broader racialized ideas about violence, innocence and vulnerability.

And if the problem is not straightforward, neither is the solution.

Shana McCalla, founder of Find Ontario Missing Black Boys, and Camille Dundas, who in 2025 authored a three-part investigative series, have been instrumental in bringing this issue into public view.

Recently, McCalla submitted a brief to Ontario Solicitor General Michael Kerzner outlining 15 recommendations to address the crisis of Black boys being groomed into drug trafficking networks. Like other Black leaders, she insists that boys recruited into criminal activity should be treated as victims of exploitation and human trafficking, not as criminal offenders.

This means being connected to victim services, trauma-informed care and culturally relevant support. In their advocacy, these leaders have pointed to education, media and lack of opportunities as some areas that need urgent attention.

Classrooms and courtrooms

Anti-Blackness in education is well-documented. The treatment of Black youth as adults when they make mistakes starts in school, often leading to disproportionate suspensions.

But when rethinking the school-to-prison pipeline, Black studies scholar rosalind hampton notes that practices of control found in prisons were established earlier within public education, bringing our attention to the carceral connections between schools and prisons.




Read more:
How to curb anti-Black racism in Canadian schools


How is this racialized perception produced? For race scholars, the answer is complex.

My research suggests that visual cultures of everyday institutions, schools, media and digital platforms play a vital role and influence how children and youth are seen and how they come to see themselves.

Masculinity, money and risk

Images shape how we understand the world and our place within it. Cultural theorist Nicholas Mirzoeff, for example, explains that we live in a visual global environment where the connection between images and how we think of race has a long history.

Youth are immersed in visual cultural production circulating across digital platforms, from social media to music videos, influencing how they see themselves and how they want to be seen.

Bizz Loc, a Toronto rapper featured in The Fifth Estate documentary, is currently serving a 7.5-year sentence for his involvement with the Eglinton West Crips street gang. In music videos of his like “I’m Bacc Crodie,” imagery of youth flashing gang signs, mimicking gun gestures and referencing rivalries circulates a version of Black masculinity tied to risk, conflict and money.

Transfeminist philosopher and essayist Sayak Valencia’s concept of gore capitalism helps explain how, in contexts of inequality, violence can be turned into something that attracts attention and generates value.

In Bizz Loc’s case, masculinity is constructed through proximity to risk and money, offering young men a way to be seen and valued when other opportunities are limited. This visual language is part of a broader web that helps sustain violence through its aestheticization.

At the same time, as American sociologist and author Tricia Rose notes, hip-hop doesn’t just describe street life shaped by chronic Black joblessness, it also educates, critiques injustice and pushes for safer, more just communities.

Yet the versions that are most visible today often narrow these stories.

An abolitionist approach

Dundas raises a pressing question: if it costs close to $97,000 a year to keep a youth in custody, how might those resources be better invested in supporting young people?

Precise figures vary and remain difficult to calculate. There isn’t clear and up-to-date data on governments’ spending on the youth justice system.

What is clear, however, is that Black and Indigenous youth are disproportionately represented within it. Whether it’s $57,000 a year or over $1,400 a day, provincial governments spend heavily on incarcerating youth.

Abolition, Ruth Wilson Gilmore explains, is about the presence of the conditions that sustain life like food security, secure employment, parks and access to nature, clean water and clean air.

In the absence of these conditions for Black and Indigenous youth, other systems step in.

Or as Fred Moten and Stefano Harney, Black studies and critical theorists, put it, the target of abolition work is not prisons, but a society that makes prisons necessary. Rather than punishment, the abolitionist question is how do we build communities where fewer young people are vulnerable to recruitment before they encounter violence at all.

The Conversation

Marycarmen Lara Villanueva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How structural inequality fuels Black youth recruitment into cycles of violence – https://theconversation.com/how-structural-inequality-fuels-black-youth-recruitment-into-cycles-of-violence-280516