Data centers need electricity fast, but utilities need years to build power plants – who should pay?

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of Florida

Data centers need lots of power – but how much, exactly? alacatr/iStock/Getty Images Plus

The amount of electricity data centers use in the U.S. in the coming years is expected to be significant. But regular reports of proposals for new ones and cancellations of planned ones mean that it’s difficult to know exactly how many data centers will actually be built and how much electricity might be required to run them.

As a researcher of energy policy who has studied the cost challenges associated with new utility infrastructure, I know that uncertainty comes with a cost. In the electricity sector, it is the challenge of state utility regulators to decide who pays what shares of the costs associated with generating and serving these types of operations, sometimes broadly called “large load centers.”

States are exploring different approaches, each with strengths, weaknesses and potential drawbacks.

A new type of customer?

For years, large electricity customers such as textile mills and refineries have used enough electricity to power a small city.

Moreover, their construction timelines were more aligned with the development time of new electricity infrastructure. If a company wanted to build a new textile mill and the utility needed to build a new gas-fired power plant to serve it, the construction on both could start around the same time. Both could be ready in two and a half to three years, and the textile mill could start paying for the costs necessary to serve it.

Modern data centers use a similar amount of electricity but can be built in nine to 12 months. To meet that projected demand, construction of a new gas-fired power plant, or a solar farm with battery storage, must begin a year – maybe two – before the data center breaks ground.

During the time spent building the electrical supply, computing technology advances, including both the capabilities and the efficiency of the kinds of calculations artificial intelligence systems require. Both factors affect how much electricity a data center will use once it is built.

Technological, logistical and planning changes mean there is a lot of uncertainty about how much electricity a data center will ultimately use. So it’s very hard for a utility company to know how much generating capacity to start building.

A large industrial site with two tall smokestacks.
Keeping older coal plants running may be an expensive way to generate power.
Ulysse Bellier/AFP via Getty Images

Handling the risks of development

This uncertainty costs money: A power plant could be built in advance, only to find out that some or all of its capacity isn’t needed. Or no power plant is built, and a data center pops up, competing for a limited supply of electricity.

Either way, someone needs to pay – for the excess capacity or for the increased price of what power is available. There are three possible groups that might pay: the utilities that provide electricity, the data center customers, and the rest of the customers on the system.

However, utility companies have largely ensured their risk is minimal. Under most state utility-regulation processes, state officials review spending proposals from utility companies to determine what expenses can be passed on to customers. That includes operating expenses such as salaries and fuel costs, as well as capital investments, such as new power plants and other equipment.

Regulators typically examine whether proposed expenses are useful for providing service to customers and reasonable for the utility to expect to incur. Utilities have been very careful to provide their regulators with evidence about the costs and effects of proposed data centers to justify passing the costs of proposed investments in new power plants along to whomever the customers happen to be.

Regulators, then, are left to equitably allocate the costs to the prospective data center customers and the rest of the ratepayers, including homes and businesses. In different states, this is playing out differently.

Kentucky’s approach to usefulness

Kentucky is attempting to address the demand uncertainty by conditionally approving two new natural gas-fired generators in the state. However, the utility companies – Louisville Gas & Electric and Kentucky Utilities – must demonstrate that those plants will actually be needed and used. But it’s not clear how they could do that, especially considering the time frames involved.

For instance, suppose the utility has a letter of agreement or even a contract with a new data center or other large customer. That might be sufficient proof for the regulator to approve charging customers for the costs of building a new power plant.

But it’s not clear what would happen if the data center ends up not being built, or needing much less power than expected. If the utility can’t get the money from the data center company – because they bill customers based on actual usage – that leaves regular consumers on the hook.

A large rectangular building.
A data center in Columbus, Ohio, is just one of many being built or proposed around the country.
Eli Hiller/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

Ohio’s ‘demand ratchet’ and credit guarantee

In Ohio, the major power company AEP has a specific rate plan for data centers and other large electricity customers. One element, called a “demand ratchet,” is designed to mitigate month-to-month uncertainty in electricity consumption by data centers. The data center’s monthly bill is based on the current month’s demand or 85% of the highest monthly demand from the previous 11 months – whichever is higher.

The benefit is that it protects against a data center using huge amounts of electricity one month and very little the next, which would otherwise yield a much lower bill. The ratchet helps ensure that the data center is paying a significant share of the cost of providing enough electricity, even if it doesn’t use as much as was expected.

This ratchet effectively locks in the data center’s payments for 12 months, but regulators might expect a longer commitment from the center. For instance, Florida’s utilities regulator has approved an agreement that would require a data center company to pay for 70% of the agreed-upon demand in their entire electricity contract, even if the company didn’t use the power.

Another aspect of Ohio’s approach addresses the risk of changing business plans or technology. AEP requires a credit guarantee, like a deposit, letter of credit or parent company guarantee of payment, equal to 50% of the customer’s expected minimum bill under the contract. While this theoretically reduces the risk borne by other customers, it also raises concerns.

For example, a utility may not end up signing contracts directly with a large, well-known, wealthy technology company but with a subsidiary corporation with a more generic name – imagine something like “Westside Data Center LLC” – created solely to build and operate one data center. If the data center’s plans or technology changes, that subsidiary could declare bankruptcy, leaving the other customers with the remaining costs.

Harnessing strength in flexibility

A key advantage to these new types of customers is that they are extremely nimble in the way they use electricity.

If data centers can make money based on their flexibility, as they have in Texas, then a portion of those profits can be returned to the other customers that shared the investment risk. A similar mechanism is being implemented in Missouri: If the utility makes extra money from large customers, then 65% of that revenue increase is returned to the other customers.

Change is coming to the U.S. electricity system, but nobody is sure how much. The methods by which states are trying to allocate the cost of that uncertainty vary, but the critical element is understanding their respective strengths and weaknesses to craft a system that is fair for everyone.

The Conversation

Theodore Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities, the Florida Public Service Commission and the Office of Public Counsel, the Consumer Advocate for the State. However, the Center maintains sole editorial control of this and any other work.

ref. Data centers need electricity fast, but utilities need years to build power plants – who should pay? – https://theconversation.com/data-centers-need-electricity-fast-but-utilities-need-years-to-build-power-plants-who-should-pay-271048

How I rehumanize the college classroom for the AI-augmented age

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Sean Cho Ayres, Assistant Professor of English – AI Writing, Kennesaw State University

Generative AI looms widely in higher education. Can focusing on social interactions prepare students well for an AI-infused workplace? Fuse via Getty Images

It’s week one of the semester, the first day of class: 20 students, mostly freshmen, sit silently waiting for our English 101 Writing Composition class to begin. Most have one AirPod in listening to whatever their Spotify AI DJ thinks they want to listen to; some scroll past AI-selected ads for drop-shipped fast fashion. And then someone who has forgotten to silence their phone opens TikTok and the 6-7 second sound blares. They hurriedly close the app, no apology, not even a half-hearted laugh from their classmates.

Welcome to the contemporary college classroom.

I am a college professor working at the intersection of humanities and artificial intelligence, and yes, I believe the latter not only threatens to devalue college, but it also risks stripping humanity from our lives altogether.

It doesn’t have to be this way. AI automating away parts of work and life challenges the next generation of the workforce to re-instill the importance of interpersonal social skills, and I see the college classroom as the ideal place for this rehumanization to take place.

Here’s my framework for building a classroom centered around student socialization. The goal: Equip students with the vital human skills needed in the AI-augmented workforce.

Target: Bring humanity to work

Young adults sit in college classes fully aware that an AI-infused workplace is just on the other side of graduation. But they – and everyone else – have little idea how best to prepare for it.

How to make this work for today’s college students? Known for the infamous Gen Z stare, having their faces glued to their screens, and their fidgeting, doomscrolling thumbs, Gen Z has been pegged as the generation that lacks the social skills needed to succeed in an AI-augmented workforce.

To me, this represents a clear tension between the young adults they are and the adults they need to be.

It’s easy for my rhetoric to give off “kids these days” vibes. But I’m a young millennial. Which is to say, I too don’t know what to do with my hands at dinner parties and have to make a conscious effort to maintain eye contact.

Simply put: I teach what I wish I would have been taught.

Shifting the mentality of the classroom

In the college classroom, it’s all too easy to talk at the students for 90 minutes – to just be a professor with a slide deck who tosses in a few canned jokes that you know work because you’ve already said them a dozen times. Time passes, and you hear the next class waiting outside the door.

“All right, y’all,” you say. “Let’s get outta here.”

The students dash off to their dorm rooms or dining hall, and wait to do the homework until midnight. You wait a few weeks too long to grade it – also at midnight, right before midterm grades are due – like two digital ships passing each other in the moonlight.

Instead, I offer a different mindset: The classroom is not some intermediary between two computers – the assignment creator and the assignment doer, which only serves to build an “us versus them” mentality between student and professor.

Rather, it’s us together in the battle against the midterm or final exam.

“OK, that sounds great, random guy on the internet,” I hear you say from the other side of the screen. “But how?”

Small social interactions

We academics like to use fancy words phrases like “student-centered classroom” or “student-driven approach.” What this means for me is simple: I constantly interact with the students and make social interactions integral to the classroom experience.

I used to hear professors brag about knowing each of their students’ names, so I made it a priority to do the same. But now I don’t think that’s enough. Instead, I’m asking the frat bros-future-businessmen and the honors-society-students-soon-to-be-doctors to get to know each other as peers and future colleagues.

As I shuffle into class and try to remember if I capitalized my first pet’s name as I log into the computer, I simply ask students to tell each other: What was the most challenging question on the homework? What did you do this weekend? And more importantly, what did you wish you did?

At the end of class, I give five minutes for students to plan out when they’re going to complete the homework, and then I have them talk to the person next to them about it.

These conversations often lead to friendships formed over common struggles: Alex would love to do his English paper tonight but has to study for his bio test, and Professor Smith’s exams are the worst. As luck has it, James is also in the lecture. “Man, you’re in the class too? Where do you sit? Professor Smith talks way too fast!”

Three female college students work together at a computer.
Social interactions in class can be a vital place to teach crucial social skills.
Visual Vic via Getty Images

Centering the importance of public speaking

Sure, in my writing-intensive classes we turn in term papers, they get grades, and yes, some students use AI. That’s all fine and well, but that’s not the important part. Instead, I’m interested in students knowing the material well enough to articulate it to the group – well enough to tell us why the subject matters to them, to us and to the world at large.

So we spend a week where students give a short 5-10 minute presentation on their work. “Tell us why fast fashion is destroying the planet. Tell me why we need to care more about the future of pork and factory farming practices.”

And for those brief moments of positive peer pressure as the students stand at the front of the class, it doesn’t matter that ChatGPT helped with the commas, did the googling or even wrote the entire conclusion because “I was just getting too tired.” What matters is the students’ ability to look a group of 20 peers in the eye and bring the private work of thinking, writing and sometimes even chatbot-prompting into the public sphere.

The point isn’t whether students used AI to compose the words; it’s whether the ideas feel like they originate from the person behind the words. Whether they’ve wrestled with them long enough to know what they’re trying to say. If ChatGPT helped them get there, fine. What matters is what they did after. Did they question it? Did they revise it? Did they decide it wasn’t quite right and try again?

That’s the work I care about. To me, it’s the difference between turning something in and actually turning something over — in your mind, in your hands, to the people around you. That’s what makes it real. What makes it theirs. What makes it college.

Back in the classroom …

It’s week 12. I just sent my students off into a small-group discussion on “the value of adapting AI-augmented practices into your daily life.” Five minutes go by. “All right, y’all, let’s bring it back in.” But no one stops talking.

And in that small moment as I pull my phone out to play the Snapchat notification sound, Rizzlord soundtrack or whatever the sound meme of the day is to get their attention, I know I’ve done my small part as an educator: teaching students how to be human again.

The Conversation

Sean Cho Ayres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How I rehumanize the college classroom for the AI-augmented age – https://theconversation.com/how-i-rehumanize-the-college-classroom-for-the-ai-augmented-age-269168

Donor-advised funds have more money than ever – and direct more of it to politically active charities

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Brian Mittendorf, Professor of Accounting, The Ohio State University

Using investment accounts for charitable gifts could be influencing giving in unexpected ways. sesame/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Charitable giving in the United States has changed significantly in recent years.

Two of the biggest changes are the swift growth of donor-advised funds and the increasingly blurred lines between charity and politics.

Donor-advised funds, or DAFs, are charitable investment accounts. After donors put money or other financial assets into these accounts, the assets are technically no longer theirs. But they do get a say in how those funds are invested, as well as when and which charities should get some of the money.
Americans gave nearly US$90 billion to DAFs in 2024 – up from the $20 billion DAFs took in a decade earlier.

One distinguishing feature about DAF donors is that when they dispatch money from their charitable accounts, they fund politically engaged charities at higher rates than people who give directly to charity.

That’s what we, two scholars who research the flow of money between donors and nonprofits, found when we conducted a study examining the links between donor-advised funds and donations to charities that are politically active. Our results will be published in a forthcoming issue of Nonprofit Policy Forum, a peer-reviewed academic journal.

Resembling family foundations

As charitable investment accounts, donor-advised funds straddle a middle ground between family foundations and organizations doing direct charitable work.

Like foundations, DAFs give donors a sense of long-term control over funds they’ve designated for charitable spending in the future. But because DAFs are accounts held within certified public charities, often those affiliated with financial institutions like Fidelity and Vanguard, they offer added tax benefits and simplicity.

DAFs let donors take charitable tax deductions immediately, and then decide later how much of that money to give to which charity – and when – by telling the account managers what to do.

Timing gifts this way can increase the tax advantages tied to charitable giving through tax deductions. And DAFs help donors do this without the expenses, staffing and complexity of running their own foundations.

These advantages – coupled with persuasive marketing campaigns – have helped spur a DAF boom. Donor-advised funds held $326 billion in 2024.

A proponent of donor-advised funds explains how they work and why many donors like to use them.

More politically engaged charitable activity

We consider charities “politically engaged” if they either do lobbying or have related organizations that participate in political campaigning. These groups span the political spectrum: For example, they include both the National Rifle Association and the Environmental Defense Fund.

We gathered data from the nearly 250,000 charities in the U.S. that filed a 990 form with the Internal Revenue Service from 2020 to 2022. The country’s largest charities must file these informational forms annually and make them available to the public.

When we crunched the numbers, we discovered that nearly 6% of payments from DAF accounts go to politically engaged charities. In comparison, other funding sources paid out only 3.6% to politically engaged charities.

This means a funding rate from DAFs is 1.7 times the benchmark level. When it comes to fringe hate and antigovernment charities, overall funding levels are low, but the DAF difference is more pronounced – DAF donors fund these groups at a rate 3.5 times that of other donors.

Giving donors more privacy

One other advantage DAFs offer donors is that they provide more anonymity than if donors give to a cause directly.

Under current disclosure rules, when donors give more than $5,000 to any charitable nonprofit – whether it’s their local food bank or animal shelter or art museum – both the charity and the IRS have to know who they are. When donors give that much to private foundations, it becomes part of the public record as well.

But when donors give any amount, even if it’s much more than $5,000, through their DAFs, even the charity that ultimately gets the money may not know the donor’s identity.

This anonymity may be one reason donors more often use DAFs to give to organizations that engage in politics, either directly or indirectly.

To be sure, charities are permitted to engage in different types of political engagement to varying degrees. In fact, U.S. charities have long been important public policy advocates. And it is also understandable that donors might want to be anonymous. Yet the use of DAFs to provide gifts to fringe groups suggests this lack of transparency is not always a good thing.

The rules around donor disclosure were originally set up to prevent private interests from abusing the system.

This is the reason that foundations – like those set up by tech billionaire Elon Musk or Google co-founder Larry Page – must publicly disclose both their major donors and their grant recipients.

But when these foundations make grants to donor-advised funds, the digital trail becomes a dead end. The public has no way to know which charities the foundations are ultimately funding with their grants after the money enters a DAF’s coffers.

Consistent with this arrangement, we found that the DAFs that get more grants from foundations tend to fund politically active organizations at higher rates.

Changing the charity landscape

As DAFs continue to expand, further research can help cast light on what effect they will ultimately have. Though much research and many proposed new rules have focused on whether Americans need to move the money in their DAFs out to charities more quickly, we’re focused on where that money goes.

In examining tax filings, we have also learned that some charitable sectors get more money from DAFs than others.

For example, social service nonprofits, which include homeless shelters and food banks, get 25% of all giving, but only 20% of DAF giving. This may seem like a small difference, but it can actually represent seismic shifts in where charitable dollars go.

And we’re now examining whether the size of a charity’s DAF program can influence that organization’s behavior. The data collected from 990 forms suggests that even community foundations may become less focused on their local communities when they court DAF donors.

The Conversation

Helen Flannery is employed by the Institute for Policy Studies, a progressive think tank that has done research related to charity reforms.

Brian Mittendorf does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Donor-advised funds have more money than ever – and direct more of it to politically active charities – https://theconversation.com/donor-advised-funds-have-more-money-than-ever-and-direct-more-of-it-to-politically-active-charities-270758

Whether Netflix or Paramount buys Warner Bros., entertainment oligopolies are back – bigger and more anticompetitive than ever

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Matthew Jordan, Professor of Media Studies, Penn State

Warner Bros. was one of five studios that joined forces with Wall Street investors to gobble up independent theaters and movie producers in the 1920s. Nextrecord Archives/Getty Images

News of Netflix’s bid to buy Warner Bros. last week sent shock waves through the media ecosystem.

The pending US$83 billion deal is being described as an upending of the existing entertainment order, a sign that it’s now dominated by the tech platforms rather than the traditional Hollywood power brokers.

As David Zaslav, CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery, put it, “The deal with Netflix acknowledges a generational shift: The rules of Hollywood are no longer the same.”

Maybe so. But what are those rules? And are they being rewritten, or will moviegoers and TV audiences simply find themselves back in the early 20th century, when a few powerful players directed the fate of the entertainment industry?

The rise of the Hollywood oligopolies

As Hollywood rose to prominence in the 1920s, theater chain owner Adolf Zuker spearheaded a new business model.

Cartoon of man straddling three different horses and cracking them with a whip.
Lew Merrell’s 1920 cartoon for Exhibitors Herald, a film industry trade publication, depicts Adolf Zukor performing the feat of vertical integration.
Wikimedia Commons

He used Wall Street financing to acquire and merge his film distribution company, Famous Players-Lasky, the film production company Paramount and the Balaban and Katz chain of theaters under the Paramount name. Together, they created a vertically integrated studio that would emulate the assembly line production of the auto industry: Films would be produced, distributed and shown under the same corporate umbrella.

Meanwhile, Harry, Albert, Sam and Jack Warner – the Warner brothers – had been pioneer theater owners during the nickelodeon era, the period from roughly 1890 to 1915, when movie exhibition shifted from traveling shows to permanent, storefront theaters called nickelodeons.

They used the financial backing of investment bank Goldman Sachs to follow Zucker’s Hollywood model. They merged their theaters with several independent production companies: the Vitagraph film distribution company, the Skouras Brothers theater chain and, eventually, First National.

But the biggest of the Hollywood conglomerates was Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, created when the Loews theater chain merged Metro Pictures, Goldwyn Pictures and Mayer Pictures.

At its high point, MGM had the biggest stars of the day under noncompete contracts and accounted for roughly three-quarters of the entire industry’s gross revenues.

By the mid-1930s, a handful of vertically integrated studios dominated Hollywood – MGM, Paramount, Warner Brothers, RKO and 20th Century Fox – functioning like a state-sanctioned oligopoly. They controlled who worked, what films were made and what made it into the theaters they owned. And though the studios’ holdings came and went, the rules of the industry remained stable until after World War II.

Old Hollywood loses its cartel power

In 1938, the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission sued the “Big Five” studios, arguing that their vertically integrated model was anti-competitive.

After the Supreme Court decided in favor of the U.S. government in 1948 – in what became known as the Paramount Decisionthe studios were forced to sell off their theater chains, which checked their ability to squeeze theaters and squeeze out independent producers.

With the studios’ cartel power weakened, independent filmmakers like Elia Kazan and John Cassavetes flourished in the 1950s, making pictures like “On the Waterfrontthat the studios had rejected. Foreign films found their ways to American screens no longer constrained by block booking, a practice that forced exhibitors to pay for a lot of mediocre films if they wanted the good ones, too.

By the 1960s, a new generation of filmmakers like Mike Nichols and Stanley Kubrick scored big with audiences hungry for something different than the escapist spectacles Hollywood was green-lighting. They took risks by hiring respected writers and unknown actors to tell stories that were truer to life. In doing so, they flipped Hollywood’s generic formulas upside down.

A decade ago, I wrote about how Netflix’s streaming model pointed to a renaissance of innovative storytelling, similar to the period after the Paramount Decision.

By streaming their indie film “Beast of No Nation” directly to subscribers at home, Netflix posed a direct threat to Hollywood’s blockbuster model, in which studios invested heavily in a small number of big-budget films designed to earn enormous box office returns. At the time, Netflix’s 65 million global subscribers gave it the capital to produce exclusive content for its expanding markets.

Hollywood quickly closed the streaming gap, developing its own platforms and restricting access of its vast catalogs to subscribers.

Warner Bros. bought and sold

In 2018, AT&T acquired Time Warner, the biggest media conglomerate of the time, and DirectTV. It hoped to merge its 125 million-plus telecommunication customers with Time Warner’s content and create a streaming giant to compete with Netflix.

Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, and the theatrical model for film distribution collapsed.

The pressure on AT&T’s stock led the company to sell off HBO and WarnerMedia to Discovery in 2022 for $43 billion. Armed with the HBO and Warner Bros. libraries – along with the advertising potential of CNN, TNT and Turner Sports – CEO David Zaslav was bullish about the company’s potential for growth.

Warner Bros. Discovery became the third-largest streaming platform in terms of subscribers behind Netflix and Disney+, which had gobbled up 20th Century Fox.

But the results have been bad for audiences.

In 2023, Zaslav rolled out a bundled streaming platform called Max that combined the libraries of HBO Max and Discovery+, which ended up confusing consumers and the market. So it reverted back to HBO Max because consumers recognized the brand.

Zaslav then decided it was more cost effective to cancel innovative projects or write off completed films as losses. Zaslav often claims his deals are “good for consumers,” in that they get more content in one place. But conglomerates who defend their anti-competitive practices as signs of an efficient market that benefit “consumer welfare” frequently say that, even when they are making the product worse and limiting choices.

His deals have been especially bad for the television side, yielding gutted newsrooms and canceled scripted shows.

Effectively, in only three years, the Warner Bros. Discovery merger has validated nearly all the concerns that critics of “market first” policymaking have warned about for years. Once it had a dominant market share, the company started providing less and charging more.

Older man smiles and waves while wearing sunglasses and a white baseball cap reading 'Max.'
In 2023, Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav attempted to merge HBO’s prestige programming with Discovery’s reality TV catalog under a broader, super-service called Max.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Meet the new boss – same as the old boss

If it does go through, the Netflix-Warner Bros. merger will likely please Wall Street, but it will further decrease the power of creators and consumers.

Like other companies that have moved from being a growth stock to a mature stock, Netflix is under pressure to be profitable. Indeed, it has been squeezing its subscribers with higher fees and more restrictive login protocols. It’s a sign of what tech blogger Cory Doctorow describes as the logic of “enshittification,” whereby platforms that have locked in audiences and producers start to squeeze both. Buying the competition – HBO Max – will mean Netflix can charge even more.

After the Netflix deal was announced, Paramount joined forces with President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the Saudi Sovereign Wealth fund and others to announce a hostile counteroffer.

Now, all bets are off. Whichever platform acquires Warner Bros. will have enormous power over the kind of stories that get sold and told.

In either case, Warner Bros. would be bought by a direct competitor. The Department of Justice, under the first Trump administration, already pushed to sunset the Paramount Decision, claiming that the distribution model had changed to such an extent that it was unlikely that Hollywood could ever reinstate its cartel. It’s hard to imagine that Trump 2.0 will forbid more media concentration, especially if the new parent company is friendly to the administration.

No matter which bidder becomes the belle of Trump’s ballroom, this merger illustrates how show business works: When dominant platforms also own the studios and their assets, they control the fate of the movie business – of actors, writers, producers and theaters.

Importantly, the concentration is taking place as artificial intelligence threatens to displace many aspects of film production. These corporate behemoths will determine if the film libraries spanning a century of Hollywood production will be used to train the machines that could replace artists and creatives. And with each prospective buyer taking on over $50 billion in bank debt to pay for the deal, the new parent of Warner Bros. will be looking everywhere for profits and opportunities to cut costs.

If history is any guide, there will be struggles ahead for consumers and competing creatives. In a media system that has veered back to following Hollywood’s yellow brick rules of the road, the new oligopolies are an awful lot like the old ones.

The Conversation

Matthew Jordan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Whether Netflix or Paramount buys Warner Bros., entertainment oligopolies are back – bigger and more anticompetitive than ever – https://theconversation.com/whether-netflix-or-paramount-buys-warner-bros-entertainment-oligopolies-are-back-bigger-and-more-anticompetitive-than-ever-271479

Sleep problems and depression can be a vicious cycle, especially during pregnancy − here’s why it’s important to get help

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jenalee Doom, Associate Professor of Psychology, University of Denver

Restless or too little sleep can make us feel unfocused and indecisive the next day. Valerii Apetroaiei/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Imagine you got a rough night of sleep. Perhaps you went to bed too late, needed to wake up early or still felt tired when you woke up from what should have been a full night’s sleep.

For the rest of the day, you feel groggy and unfocused. Things that are usually fun or exciting don’t give you the same level of pleasure. You don’t have energy to exercise, so you avoid it. You don’t feel motivated to see friends, so you cancel plans with them. You focus on your rough day as you try to fall asleep that night and start to have anxiety about the next day. Instead of getting the restful night of sleep you need, you have another night of poor sleep. You become caught in a vicious cycle of poor sleep and depressed mood.

Sleep and mental health problems often go hand in hand. Sleep problems are a core symptom of depression. In addition, there is strong evidence that sleep problems contribute to many mental health disorders, including schizophrenia and post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD.

Yet our mental health also affects how well we sleep. Issues such as distressing thoughts and trouble relaxing can make it difficult for people to fall asleep or stay asleep, exacerbating sleep problems.

These issues are particularly pronounced during pregnancy, when the circular effects of inadequate sleep and mental health challenges can have harmful effects for mothers and their offspring.

We are a developmental psychologist and a doctoral student in psychology who study sleep and mental health from pregnancy through adulthood. As researchers in this field, we see the impacts of sleep and mental health problems firsthand.

Sleep and mental health problems are so entangled that it is unsurprising that they can each make the other worse. But it does make treating them more challenging.

Biology of sleep and mental health

Researchers and medical professionals know that sleep is essential for the body and brain to function properly.

Sleep is important for establishing circadian rhythms, which optimize alertness during the day and rest at night. When sunlight fades in the evening, the brain produces more of the hormone melatonin, and your core body temperature drops to promote sleep. When the brain detects sunlight, it reduces melatonin production, and body temperature increases to promote wakefulness.

Although light and dark are the most important signals to the brain about when you should be awake and when you should be sleeping, other things such as stress, disruptions in daily routines and social interactions can also throw off your circadian rhythm.

Circadian rhythms affect other important biological processes, including the body’s production of the stress hormone cortisol. Cortisol follows a daily rhythm where it is highest soon after waking in the morning and lowest in the middle of the night. Disruptions in normal sleep can lead to difficulties in daily regulation of cortisol levels, which can have negative effects on mental health and the ability to effectively manage stress.

Sleep is central to the proper functioning of the immune system, which in turn has implications for mental and physical health. Sleep disturbances have been linked to poorer immune responses against viruses and other challenges to the immune system, making it harder to stay healthy and to recover after getting sick.

Sleep disturbances also lead to greater inflammation, which is when the immune system’s natural responses become overactive. Inflammation underlies mental and physical health problems, including depression, heart disease and cancer.

Without adequate sleep, cognitive functions suffer and emotional resilience weakens.

How poor sleep leads to behavior changes

Chronic disruptions to a person’s natural circadian rhythm – such as people who work night shifts or who switch between day and night shifts – lead to greater risk for both depression and anxiety.

Shift work is an extreme example of disrupting the natural pattern of sleeping at night. However, less severe types of sleep problems, such as not getting enough sleep or waking up feeling tired, are also bad for mental health.

Sleep disruptions make it more difficult to regulate emotions. Having too little or poor quality sleep make handling everyday stressors more difficult. This is because sufficient sleep is necessary for effective problem-solving, memory and focusing. The combination of impaired emotion regulation and stress management abilities are a recipe for greater mental health difficulties.

One key reason why poor sleep and mental health struggles can become so problematic and difficult to treat is that without adequate sleep, it’s challenging to muster energy for healthy activities such as exercise and maintaining social relationships.

What’s more, when decision-making is impaired by poor sleep and negative emotions, people are more likely to reach for alcohol, drugs and unhealthy foods to cope with stress. These unhealthy behaviors can, in turn, reinforce the cycle by interfering with sleep.

In a sleep study on healthy adults, researchers found that lack of sleep causes overactivity in the amygdala, a crucial area of the brain where emotional processing occurs.

Sleep and mental health problems in pregnancy

These cycles between poor sleep and mental health challenges can be especially problematic during pregnancy.

Common pregnancy symptoms include nausea, heartburn, back and joint pain, cramps, a frequent urge to pee and contractions, all of which can make it more difficult to get restful sleep.

Sadly, around 76% of pregnant women report having sleep problems at some point in their pregnancy, compared with only 33% in the general population. Relatedly, about 1 in 5 pregnant women in the U.S. struggle with mental health problems such as anxiety and depression.

Our team’s new research, published in December 2025, further establishes these links between sleep and mental health. We found that during pregnancy, mental health problems contribute to sleep problems over time and that sleep problems in turn can exacerbate mental health problems.

This cycle can also have negative effects on the fetus and on the child after birth.

Prenatal sleep problems such as short sleep, sleep apnea and restless sleep can lead to preterm births and low birth weight in newborns.

A large study in Sweden in 2021 found that pregnant women who frequently worked the night shift or quickly shifted between night and day work in early pregnancy showed a three-to-four times greater risk for having a preterm birth. Preterm birth and low birthweight are associated with greater cardiovascular risk in both mothers and their offspring.

Prenatal maternal sleep problems can also lead to problems later in the child’s development. A review we also published in 2025 found that children of mothers who had sleep problems in pregnancy tend to have more sleep problems themselves. Our review also reported that children of mothers with prenatal sleep problems are more likely to develop obesity and have more behavioral problems in childhood.

Pregnant woman with large belly sleeping on her side with a pillow covering her face.
Poor sleep during pregnancy has serious implications for both the parent and the offspring.
Tassii/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Talking to your doctor about these concerns

In our opinion, it should be standard to screen for sleep problems at medical visits, given the potential implications of inadequate sleep for both mothers and their babies.

If you’re close to someone who is pregnant, consider asking how their sleep is and how they’re feeling. If they note ongoing sleep issues or emotional or behavior changes, you can ask if they have talked to their doctor.

They may feel overwhelmed and need support in talking to their doctor or help finding resources. The Sleep Foundation’s website has a list of sleeping tips for pregnant women as well as guidelines for when to speak with a doctor.

If you are the person experiencing these issues, you can report sleep problems to your doctor and ask for guidance for improving sleep.

If you’re experiencing difficulties with depression or anxiety, tell your doctor and ask for resources. There are mental health resources specific to pregnancy that can help. You can also find mental health professionals through Psychology Today’s find-a-therapist tool.

Healthy sleep is a necessity for improving your mental health during pregnancy and at all times of life.

The Conversation

Jenalee Doom receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.

Melissa Nevarez-Brewster receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.

ref. Sleep problems and depression can be a vicious cycle, especially during pregnancy − here’s why it’s important to get help – https://theconversation.com/sleep-problems-and-depression-can-be-a-vicious-cycle-especially-during-pregnancy-heres-why-its-important-to-get-help-264737

How a niche Catholic approach to infertility treatment became a new talking point for MAHA conservatives

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Emma Kennedy, Assistant Professor of Christian Ethics, Villanova University

‘Restorative reproductive medicine’ has become a buzzword in some conservative circles, among people morally opposed to in vitro fertilization Jose Luis Pelaez Inc/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Along the 2024 presidential campaign trail, Donald Trump pledged to make in vitro fertilization, or IVF, free – part of his party’s wider push for a new American “baby boom.”

But in October 2025, when the administration revealed its IVF proposal, many health care experts pointed out that it falls short of mandating insurance companies to cover the procedure.

Since Trump returned to the White House, it has become clear just how fraught IVF is for his base. Some conservative Christians oppose IVF because it often involves destroying extra embryos not implanted in the woman’s uterus.

According to Politico, anti-abortion groups lobbied against a requirement for employers to cover IVF. Instead, some vouched for “restorative reproductive medicine” – a term that has been around for decades but has received much more attention, especially from conservatives, in the past few months.

Proponents of restorative reproductive medicine tend to present it as an alternative to IVF: a different way of treating infertility, focused on treating underlying causes. But the approach is controversial, and some practitioners closely link their treatments to Catholic teachings.

As a scholar of religion, I study U.S. Catholics’ varied perspectives on infertility, seeking to understand how religious beliefs and practices influence physicians’ and patients’ choices. Their perspectives help provide a more nuanced understanding of Christianity’s role in the U.S. reproductive and political landscape.

Defining restorative reproductive medicine

Clinics that advertise themselves as offering restorative reproductive medicine try to diagnose underlying issues that could make conception difficult, like endometriosis. Typically, a patient and provider will closely monitor the patient’s menstrual cycle to identify potential abnormalities. Interventions include hormone therapies, medications, supplements, surgeries and lifestyle changes.

An open notebook shows rows of pink and white test strips, one for each day, with March dates written beside them.
Some approaches to treating infertility focus on analyzing the patient’s menstrual cycle.
Iana Pronicheva/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Much of the approach resembles the initial testing used to evaluate patients in mainstream reproductive endocrinology and infertility clinics. However, restorative reproductive medicine clinics do not typically offer IVF or other assisted reproductive technologies.

Depending on who you ask, proponents are not necessarily opposed to IVF; they see their treatments as another option to explore. Some clinicians, however, closely link their treatment offerings to their religious commitments and opposition to abortion.

Restorative reproductive medicine has prompted criticism from professional medical organizations. The American Society for Reproductive Medicine issued a statement in May 2025 calling it a “rebranding” of standard infertility treatment, with “ideologically driven restrictions that could limit patient care.” The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists issued a brief warning that it is a “nonmedical approach” that threatens to impede access to IVF.

These critics are concerned that the focus on lifestyle changes and surgery may not address patients’ difficulties conceiving, while putting them through other unsuccessful treatments.

Church teachings

Today, restorative reproductive medicine is often described as gaining steam with conservative Christians and the “Make America Healthy Again,” or MAHA, movement. Its roots, though, are decades old, and largely Catholic.

Part of the Catholic Church’s objection to IVF stems from a concern that unused embryos are often discarded and destroyed. The church’s position is that all embryos ought to be treated with the same respect afforded a person – one of the key reasons its teachings oppose abortion.

Disapproval of IVF also stems from the church’s official teachings on marriage. According to this teaching, marriage has two chief ends, which it calls “procreation and union”: Typically, procreation is understood to mean having children, while union involves physical, emotional and spiritual intimacy. In this understanding, sexual intercourse should preserve what the church calls an “inseparable connection” between these two meanings.

The Catholic Church opposes artificial contraception because its goal is to block procreation. Instead, Catholics are encouraged to use “Natural Family Planning” – tracking a woman’s cycle so that couples can choose to abstain from sex during fertile periods. Similarly, it opposes artificial insemination and IVF because, by moving fertilization out of the body and into the lab, the process separates procreation from the act of sexual intercourse.

Survey data suggests most U.S. Catholics do not agree with these official stances, nor do they follow them.

Catholic doctors who do agree with official church teachings, however, have played a key role in developing infertility treatments that align with them. One of the most influential is Dr. Thomas W. Hilgers, who co-developed a “Natural Family Planning” method called the Creighton Model. In the early 1990s, he also developed NaProTechnology, an approach that seeks to identify fertility issues using cycle tracking, and then treat them with various medical and surgical interventions.

The NaProTechnology approach could be said to fall under the umbrella of restorative reproductive medicine, but it has mostly been used by Catholic reproductive health clinics and hospitals. Catholic physicians’ networks promote it, as do parishes and dioceses.

Navigating infertility

For Catholics who share the church’s official perspective on IVF, NaProTechnology and the clinics offering it are often a welcome alternative. Several of the Catholic women I interviewed as part of my academic research had also been to mainstream fertility clinics, but they felt that those providers did not offer much apart from IVF.

By contrast, the clinics offering NaProTechnology were often cheaper, in part because they do not offer IVF. They were also easier to navigate, since clinicians shared these patients’ religious views. Many felt that the providers were able to spend more time with them, helped them learn about their bodies, and were committed to understanding underlying issues beyond infertility.

However, others found clinics offering NaProTechnology to be lacking, often because clinicians weren’t up front about its limitations, especially when it comes to male infertility. Some patients felt that clinicians weren’t willing to admit drawbacks, for fear it would encourage couples to try IVF.

A rumpled medical gown with a light-blue print sits on top of an examining table.
Infertility treatments are a confusing landscape for many women.
Catherine McQueen/Moment via Getty Images

Most Catholics dealing with infertility, however, find themselves in mainstream clinical settings that offer IVF. Women I interviewed who opted for IVF were frank in their critiques of church teachings and their skepticism of Catholic clinics. Many took issue with the underlying assumption that the people who ought to be procreating are heterosexual, married couples and that conception is usually possible without the help of IVF.

However, many of these women were also dissatisfied with the approach that mainstream clinics take. Some felt that those clinics were focused on profit – a concern shared by some scholars scrutinizing the fertility industry. Some women also felt pressured to genetically test their embryos for chromosomal abnormalities and to discard unused embryos, even after explaining to staff that destroying them would be out of step with their moral commitments.

Understanding patient experiences in either kind of clinic helps underscore the difficulties many people face navigating infertility – and the stakes of policy reform.

The Trump administration’s plan largely maintains the status quo for IVF access while making more room for alternative treatments. But it intensifies questions about how the government responds to religious beliefs about reproductive health care, especially disagreements about the moral status of embryos. For now, patients and providers will continue to navigate a fractured landscape.

The Conversation

Emma Kennedy is affiliated with the Center for Genetics and Society.

ref. How a niche Catholic approach to infertility treatment became a new talking point for MAHA conservatives – https://theconversation.com/how-a-niche-catholic-approach-to-infertility-treatment-became-a-new-talking-point-for-maha-conservatives-265461

Le sort de Warner Bros suspendu au duel Netflix–Paramount

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Julien Jourdan, Professeur, HEC Paris Business School

Ce pourrait être un épisode d’une série américaine sur le monde des affaires. Qui, de Paramount ou de Netflix, mettra la main sur la Warner Bros ? Les deux projets n’ont pas les mêmes motivations. Surtout, l’un et l’autre devront faire avec le droit de la concurrence aux États-Unis, mais aussi en Europe, mondialisation oblige. Résumé des premiers épisodes, si vous avez manqué le début…


La nouvelle a frappé Hollywood de stupeur. Le 4 décembre dernier, Netflix annonçait l’acquisition des studios Warner Bros. (WB) pour 83 milliards de dollars, coiffant au poteau le favori Paramount. La situation s’est depuis compliquée : le patron de Paramount, David Ellison, a surenchéri avec une offre hostile à 108 milliards de dollars pour l’ensemble du groupe WB Discovery, incluant les studios ainsi qu’un bouquet – en déclin – de chaînes de télévision, dont la célèbre chaîne d’information CNN.

L’issue de cette bataille est incertaine à l’heure actuelle. Les deux opérations sont de nature différente. Un achat par Paramount impliquerait une triple fusion entre deux studios, deux plates-formes de streaming – Paramount+ (79 millions d’abonnés) et HBO+ (128 millions d’abonnés) – et deux bouquets de chaînes de télévision (dont CNN et CBS). Ce serait une fusion horizontale entre des acteurs en concurrence directe sur leurs marchés. L’impact social pourrait être très lourd : l’opération prévoit 6 milliards de dollars de synergies, en grande partie via la suppression de postes en doublon.




À lire aussi :
Netflix, une machine à standardiser les histoires ?


Si Netflix mettait la main sur WB, ce serait principalement pour acquérir le vaste catalogue de WB et de HBO, les chaînes du câble étant exclues de l’offre du géant du streaming. Les synergies anticipées, de l’ordre de 3 milliards, concerneraient les dépenses technologiques pour les deux tiers et seraient constituées, pour le reste, d’économies sur les achats de droits de diffusion. Netflix pourrait ainsi librement diffuser Game of Thrones ou Harry Potter auprès de ses 302 millions d’abonnés dans le monde. Ce serait une fusion verticale combinant un producteur de contenus, WB, et un diffuseur, Netflix, qui éliminerait au passage un concurrent notable, HBO+.

Des précédents coûteux

Ce type d’opération pourrait rendre nerveux quiconque se rappelle l’histoire des fusions de Warner Bros. Déjà en 2001, le mariage de WB et d’AOL célébrait l’alliance du contenu et des « tuyaux » – pour utiliser les termes alors en vogue. L’affaire s’était terminée de piteuse manière par le spin-off d’AOL et l’une des plus grosses dépréciations d’actifs de l’histoire – de l’ordre de 100 milliards de dollars. Quinze ans plus tard, AT&T retentait l’aventure. L’union fut de courte durée. En 2021, le géant des télécoms se séparait de WB, qui se voyait désormais associé au groupe de télévision Discovery, sous la direction de David Zaslav, aujourd’hui à la manœuvre.

Pourquoi ce qui a échoué dans le passé marcherait-il aujourd’hui ? À dire vrai, la position stratégique de Netflix n’a rien à voir avec celle d’AOL et d’AT&T. Les fusions verticales précédentes n’ont jamais produit les synergies annoncées pour une simple raison : disposer de contenu en propre n’a jamais permis de vendre plus d’abonnements au téléphone ou à Internet. Dans les deux cas, le château de cartes, vendu par les dirigeants, et leurs banquiers, s’est rapidement effondré.

Un catalogue sans pareil

Une fusion de Netflix avec WB délivrerait en revanche des bénéfices très concrets : le géant du streaming ajouterait à son catalogue des produits premium – films WB et séries HBO – dont il est à ce jour largement dépourvu. L’opération permettrait de combiner l’une des bibliothèques de contenus les plus riches et les plus prestigieuses avec le média de diffusion mondiale le plus puissant qui ait jamais existé. L’ensemble pourrait en outre attirer les meilleurs talents, qui restent à ce jour largement inaccessibles à Netflix.

En pratique, certains contenus, comme la série Friends, pourraient être inclus dans l’offre de base pour la rendre plus attractive et recruter de nouveaux abonnés. D’autres films et séries pourraient être accessibles via une ou plusieurs options payantes, sur le modèle de ce que fait déjà Amazon Prime, augmentant ainsi le panier moyen de l’abonné.

Le rapprochement de deux stars du divertissement ferait à coup sûr pâlir l’offre de leurs concurrents, dont Disney mais aussi… Paramount. Et c’est là que le bât blesse. Les autorités de la concurrence, aux États-Unis et en Europe, approuveront-elles la formation d’un tel champion mondial ? Si la fusion est confirmée, les procédures en recours ne tarderont pas à arriver.

CNN dans le viseur

C’est l’argument avancé par David Ellison, le patron de Paramount, qui agite le chiffon rouge de l’antitrust pour convaincre les actionnaires de WBD : que restera-t-il du studio si la fusion avec Netflix est rejetée après deux ans de procédures ? Ted Sarandos, le co-PDG de Netflix, pourrait lui retourner la pareille, car une fusion horizontale avec Paramount ne manquerait pas d’éveiller, elle aussi, des inquiétudes – d’autant plus qu’elle serait largement financée par des capitaux étrangers venant du Golfe.

France 24 2025.

Le fils de Larry Ellison, deuxième fortune mondiale, réputé proche du président américain, s’est assuré le soutien financier du gendre de ce dernier, Jared Kushner. Si Donald Trump se soucie probablement assez peu du marché du streaming, il pourrait être sensible au sort réservé à la chaîne CNN, une de ses bêtes noires. En cas de victoire de Paramount, CNN pourrait être combinée avec CBS et sa ligne éditoriale revue pour apaiser le locataire de la Maison-Blanche. Du côté du vendeur, David Zaslav laisse les enchères monter. Il pourrait empocher une fortune – on parle de plus de 425 millions de dollars.

À cette heure, le sort de WB est entre les mains de cette poignée d’hommes. Des milliers d’emplois à Los Angeles, et ailleurs, sont en jeu. Une fusion WB/Netflix pourrait par ailleurs accélérer la chute de l’exploitation des films en salles, dans un contexte d’extrême fragilité : le nombre de tickets vendus dans les cinémas en Amérique du Nord a chuté de 40 % depuis 2019. Netflix pourrait choisir de diffuser directement sur sa plateforme certains films de WB, qui représente environ un quart du marché domestique du cinéma. Pour les films qui conserveraient une sortie en salle, la fenêtre d’exclusivité réservée aux exploitants pourrait se réduire à quelques semaines, fragilisant un peu plus leur économie. Hollywood retient son souffle.

The Conversation

Julien Jourdan ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Le sort de Warner Bros suspendu au duel Netflix–Paramount – https://theconversation.com/le-sort-de-warner-bros-suspendu-au-duel-netflix-paramount-271954

Le smic protège-t-il encore de la pauvreté ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Hugo Spring-Ragain, Doctorant en économie / économie mathématique, Centre d’études diplomatiques et stratégiques (CEDS)

Vendredi 12 décembre 2025, le Groupe d’experts sur le smic publie un rapport sur l’impact du salaire minimum sur l’économie française. Son impact sur la pauvreté n’est cependant pas univoque. Le smic ne suffit pas à expliquer les trajectoires personnelles de plus en plus diverses. Le revenu disponible qui prend en compte les aides perçues et les dépenses contraintes est un critère plus juste.


La question revient cette année encore avec le rapport du Groupe d’experts du smic publié ce vendredi 12 décembre : le salaire minimum protège-t-il encore réellement de la pauvreté ? Pourtant, comme l’ont rappelé l’Insee et l’Institut des politiques publiques (IPP) dans plusieurs travaux plus ou moins récents, le salaire brut, seul, ne détermine pas la pauvreté. Ce qui importe, c’est le niveau de vie, c’est-à-dire le revenu disponible après transferts sociaux de toutes sortes (qui s’ajoutent), impôts et charges contraintes (qui se soustraient). Dans un contexte de renchérissement du logement (13 % d’augmentation de l’indice de référence des loyers, IRL) et d’hétérogénéité croissante des situations familiales, la question ne doit plus être posée en termes uniquement macroéconomiques.

La littérature académique reprend ce constat. Antony B. Atkinson souligne que la pauvreté ne renvoie pas simplement à un « manque de salaire », mais à un insuffisant accès aux ressources globales ; Patrick Moyes rappelle que la structure familiale modifie profondément le niveau de vie relatif. Quant à France Stratégie et l’Insee, après sa publication faisant l’état des lieux de la pauvreté en France, ils documentent la montée de ce qu’on appelle la pauvreté laborieuse, c’est-à-dire le fait de travailler sans pour autant dépasser les seuils de pauvreté et sans possibilité de profiter de l’ascenseur social.




À lire aussi :
La pauvreté de masse : symptôme d’une crise de la cohésion sociale


Un amortisseur d’inflation ?

Notre premier graphique compare l’évolution du smic, des salaires et des prix depuis 2013. On y observe très nettement que le salaire minimum a servi d’amortisseur pendant la séquence inflationniste récente : ses revalorisations automatiques l’ont fait progresser aussi vite, souvent plus vite, que l’indice des prix à la consommation.

Figure 1 – Évolution du smic, du salaire mensuel de base (SMB), du salaire horaire de base des ouvriers et des employés (SHBOE) et de l’indice des prix à la consommation (IPC) hors Tabac – Sources : Dares, Insee, Rapport GES 2025 – Graphique de l’auteur.

Ce mouvement contraste avec celui des salaires moyens, dont la progression a été plus lente. Comme le soulignent plusieurs analyses de France Stratégie et de l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE), cela a eu pour effet de resserrer la hiérarchie salariale, une situation déjà documentée lors de précédentes périodes de rattrapage du smic.

L’influence du temps de travail

Mais ce constat ne dit rien d’une dimension pourtant déterminante : l’accès au temps plein car une partie des salariés au smic n’y est pas à temps complet. Comme l’ont montré plusieurs travaux de l’Insee et de la direction de l’animation de la recherche, des études et des statistiques (Dares, ministère du travail), une proportion importante de travailleurs rémunérés au salaire minimum occupe des emplois à temps partiel, et souvent non par choix mais parce qu’aucun temps plein n’est disponible. C’est ce que les économistes appellent le temps partiel contraint.

Ce temps partiel modifie radicalement l’interprétation du smic : on parle d’un salaire minimum horaire, mais, concrètement, les ressources mensuelles ne reflètent pas ce taux. Un salaire minimum versé sur 80 % d’un temps plein ou sur des horaires discontinus conduit mécaniquement à un revenu inférieur et donc à une exposition accrue à la pauvreté.

Mais si l’on s’en tenait à cette comparaison, on pourrait conclure que le smic protège pleinement les salariés les plus modestes. Or, c’est précisément ici que la question se complexifie. Car la pauvreté ne dépend pas du seul salaire : elle dépend du revenu disponible et donc de l’ensemble des ressources du ménage. C’est ce que montrent les travaux sur la pauvreté laborieuse, un phénomène en hausse en France selon l’Observatoire des inégalités, environ une personne en situation de pauvreté sur trois occupe un emploi mais les charges familiales, le coût du logement ou l’absence de second revenu maintiennent le ménage sous les seuils de pauvreté.

Du smic au revenu disponible

Pour comprendre la capacité réelle du smic à protéger de la pauvreté, il faut observer ce qu’il devient une fois transformé en revenu disponible grâce aux données de l’Insee et de la Dares, c’est-à-dire le revenu après impôts, aides et charges incompressibles.

Le graphique suivant juxtapose trois situations familiales : une personne seule, un parent isolé avec un enfant et un couple avec un enfant dont les deux adultes perçoivent le smic.

Figure 2 – Revenu disponible et seuils de pauvreté selon trois profils de ménages rémunérés au smic Sources : Dares, Insee, Rapport GES 2025 – Graphique de l’auteur.

Dans le premier panneau, on observe qu’une personne seule rémunérée au smic dispose d’un revenu disponible supérieur au seuil de pauvreté à 60 % du revenu médian. La prime d’activité joue un rôle important, mais c’est surtout l’absence de charge familiale et de coûts fixes élevés qui explique ce résultat.

Ce profil correspond à la représentation classique du smic comme filet de sécurité individuel. Comme le confirment les données de l’Insee et les travaux de France Stratégie, la pauvreté laborieuse y est encore relativement limitée. Cependant, même seul, un actif au smic pourrait avoir des dépenses contraintes extrêmement élevées dans des zones à forte demande locative.

La pauvreté laborieuse

Le deuxième panneau raconte une histoire totalement différente. Le parent isolé, même à temps plein au smic se situe clairement en dessous du seuil de pauvreté, plus grave encore, son revenu disponible ne compense plus le salaire net via les transferts. C’est ici que la notion de pauvreté laborieuse prend tout son sens. Malgré un emploi et malgré les compléments de revenu, le ménage reste dans une situation de fragilité structurelle.

Selon l’Insee, les familles monoparentales sont aujourd’hui le groupe le plus exposé à la pauvreté et notamment à la privation matérielle et sociale, non parce qu’elles travaillent moins, mais parce qu’elles cumulent un revenu unique, des charges plus élevées et une moindre capacité d’ajustement.

Dans le troisième panneau, un couple avec un enfant et deux smic vit lui aussi en dessous de la ligne de pauvreté. Ce résultat laisse penser que la composition familiale, même accompagnée de deux smic crée une pauvreté structurelle sur les bas revenus ; aussi le graphique montre-t-il que la marge est finalement assez limitée. Une partie du gain salarial disparaît en raison de la baisse des aides et de l’entrée dans l’impôt, un phénomène bien documenté par l’IPP et par le rapport Bozio-Wasmer dans leurs travaux sur les « taux marginaux implicites ». Dans les zones de loyers élevés, un choc de dépense ou une hausse de charges peut faire basculer ces ménages vers une situation beaucoup plus précaire.

ICI France 3 Hauts-de-France, 2024.

Situations contrastées

Une conclusion s’impose : le smic protège encore une partie des salariés contre la pauvreté, mais ce résultat est loin d’être uniforme. Il protège l’individu à plein temps et sans enfant, mais ne suffit plus à assurer un niveau de vie décent lorsque le salaire doit couvrir seul les charges d’un foyer, notamment dans les configurations monoparentales. Cette asymétrie est au cœur de la montée de la pauvreté laborieuse observée par l’Insee et documentée par l’Institut des politiques publiques.

Ces résultats rappellent que la pauvreté n’est plus seulement un phénomène d’exclusion du marché du travail. Elle touche des travailleurs insérés, qualifiés et en contrat stable, mais dont le salaire minimum, appliqué sur un volume horaire insuffisant ou absorbé par des dépenses contraintes, ne permet plus un niveau de vie supérieur aux seuils de pauvreté. Le smic se révèle alors davantage un plancher salarial individuel qu’un instrument de garantie sociale familiale.

À l’heure où la question du pouvoir d’achat occupe une place centrale et où la revalorisation du smic reste l’un des outils majeurs d’ajustement, ces conclusions invitent à réorienter le débat. Ce n’est pas seulement le niveau du smic qu’il faut interroger, mais sa capacité à constituer un revenu de référence pour des configurations familiales et territoriales très hétérogènes. Autrement dit, le smic joue encore sa fonction de stabilisateur individuel, mais il n’est plus suffisant seul pour protéger durablement certains ménages.

La question devient alors moins « De combien augmenter le smic ? » que « Comment garantir que le revenu disponible issu d’un emploi au smic permette effectivement d’éviter la pauvreté ? ».

The Conversation

Hugo Spring-Ragain ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Le smic protège-t-il encore de la pauvreté ? – https://theconversation.com/le-smic-protege-t-il-encore-de-la-pauvrete-271245

Sénégal : pourquoi et comment le tandem Diomaye-Sonko a déraillé

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Bamba Ndiaye, Assistant Professor, Emory University

Lors de la célébration de la Journée des martyrs et des victimes le 7 décembre 2025, à Dakar, le Premier ministre sénégalais, Ousmane Sonko, a admis sans équivoque ses divergences avec le président Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Ceci fait suite à plusieurs semaines de débat passionné au cours desquels s’est dessinée une dynamique pro-Sonko vs. pro-Diomaye, faisant craindre le risque d’un divorce politique entre les deux personnalités.

Quelques semaines auparavant, Sonko avait annoncé sur les réseaux sociaux un rassemblement “historique” prévu le 8 septembre pour ses partisans, avec pour thème : “l’État, la politique et le Pastef”, son parti.

Ce rassemblement même qu’il qualifie de “tera meeting” fut la résultante des rumeurs d’une crise au sommet de l’État. Certains parlaient même d’une possible démission ou révocation du Premier ministre. Ainsi, l’appel de Sonko a suscité de l’excitation, mais aussi de l’inquiétude. Il a en effet laissé entendre que ce rassemblement marquerait un tournant dans la vie politique du pays.

En tant que spécialistes ayant étudié [les mouvements politiques et sociaux en Afrique de l’Ouest et au Sénégal], nous analysons ici les tenants et les aboutissants de cette divergence politique naissante. Une crise qui, si elle persiste, pourrait menacer la stabilité politique du pays dans un contexte économique et financier précaire.

Une démonstration de force

Le rassemblement du 25 octobre a été une véritable démonstration de force. Sonko a saisi cette occasion pour évoquer la lourde dette cachée du Sénégal, tout en détaillant les conséquences négatives sur l’économie. Il a aussi parlé des négociations difficiles avec le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) pour résoudre la crise en insistant sur le refus d’une restructuration.




Read more:
Sénégal : la politique étrangère du tandem Faye-Sonko, rupture ou continuité ?


Devant une foule enthousiaste, il a accusé l’ancien président Macky Sall et son parti, l’APR (Alliance pour la République), de mauvaise gestion financière.

Le Premier ministre a enfin dénoncé des manœuvres en cours pour écarter l’ancienne ministre de la Famille et des Solidarités, Aïda Mbodj, comme coordinatrice de la coalition “Diomaye Président”. C’est cette coalition qui avait porté la candidature du président Faye à la présidentielle de 2024. Sonko a insinué qu’on voulait la remplacer par Aminata Touré, ancienne Première ministre de Macky Sall. Il a aussi fait allusion au fait que Mme Touré, citée dans un rapport public pour mauvaise gestion, ne dirigerait pas une coalition dominée par le Pastef.

La réaction du président

L’euphorie du meeting s’est rapidement transformée en inquiétude et indignation. Deux jours plus tard, le président Faye a signé un document. Il a limogé Aïda Mbodj et a nommé unilatéralement Aminata Touré à la tête de la coalition, avec pour mission de la restructurer et de la consolider.

Pour de nombreux partisans de Sonko et du Pastef, cette décision du président Faye est un “acte hostile”. Elle a été perçue comme un désaveu et une provocation envers le Premier ministre. Pourtant, c’est Sonko qui avait soutenu Faye comme son successeur, lui permettant d’accéder au pouvoir.

En l’espace d’une semaine, les actions contradictoires des deux hommes ont révélé une crise politique plus profonde. Une crise qui menace de créer une fracture au sein du Pastef et de briser ce duo historique, nous rappelant ainsi une crise politique similaire qui avait opposé, soixante-trois ans plus tôt, le président Léopold Sédar Senghor à son Premier ministre, Mamadou Dia.

“Diomaye n’est pas Sonko”

Depuis que ce conflit est devenu public, beaucoup parlent de “déloyauté”. Ils détournent le slogan de la campagne présidentielle de 2024, “Diomaye moy Sonko” (Diomaye est Sonko, en wolof), en “Diomaye du Sonko” (Diomaye n’est pas Sonko). Cela marque une différence fondamentale entre les deux hommes.

Sonko et le président Faye partagent pourtant un programme politique “anti-système”. Ils sont pour la transparence, la justice et de nouveaux partenariats économiques gagnant-gagnant. Mais des divergences claires sont apparues sur la méthode et les priorités.

Le président Faye semble privilégier le dialogue et la préservation de l’unité nationale. Il agit avec lenteur pour lancer des enquêtes et des poursuites contre les dignitaires de l’ancien régime. Pourtant, il s’était engagé à mener des réformes judiciaires profondes et à rendre justice aux victimes du régime de Macky Sall.




Read more:
Sénégal : les ressorts de l’ascension fulgurante du Pastef, le parti au pouvoir


Cette lenteur dans les réformes frustre l’opinion publique. Les Sénégalais voient d’anciens responsables se soustraire à la justice en se réfugiant à l’étranger ou ne pas être inquiétés pour leurs actes.

De son côté, Sonko incarne le “projet” de changement et bénéficie d’une grande popularité. Il semble amer face à une justice qui stagne et qui semble marquer le pas face aux dossiers impliquant d’anciens dignitaires du régime sortant. Il veut voir un système hérité de la colonisation entièrement démantelé et remplacé. Cela répond aux attentes de nombreux Sénégalais qui réclament des comptes et des changements concrets dans la justice, l’économie et le système politique.

Ainsi, le Premier ministre a ouvertement critiqué la crise d’autorité et la lenteur dans la reddition des comptes.

Une stratégie politique ?

Beaucoup pensent que le limogeage d’Aïda Mbodj par le président Faye est une affirmation de son autorité. Il s’agirait de se positionner face à un Premier ministre qui reste très populaire. Mais cette nomination d’Aminata Touré signifie aussi qu’il intègre des figures du système qu’il promettait de démanteler.

Faye cherche-t-il à prendre ses distances avec Sonko et le Pastef ? Le but serait-il de se présenter à la présidentielle de 2029 sous une autre bannière politique ? Une chose est claire : le Pastef reste la formation politique dominante au Sénégal. S’opposer à une version renouvelée de la coalition “Diomaye Président” sans le Pastef et Sonko pourrait être une mauvaise tactique pour assurer une longévité politique.

Aujourd’hui, la coalition “Diomaye Président” est clairement divisée. Une dynamique “Pro-Sonko” s’oppose à une dynamique “Pro-Diomaye”, ce qui aggrave la crise. Le Bureau politique du Pastef a d’ailleurs publié un communiqué réaffirmant sa volonté de restructurer “Diomaye Président” en plaçant le Pastef au centre. Il refuse de reconstruire une coalition avec des dignitaires recyclés de l’ancien régime ou des partis sans légitimité populaire.

Pour l’instant, des médiations sont toujours en cours. Mais les deux camps appellent chacun à renforcer leurs positions, ce qui creuse davantage le fossé entre Sonko et Faye. D’ailleurs, lors de la rencontre du 7 décembre, Ousmane Sonko a appelé son parti à se réinventer pour mieux faire face à la réalité politique et aux menaces internes. Dans la foulée, il a annoncé le congrés de son parti prévu au mois d’avril 2026.

Les conséquences d’une possible séparation

Après la fin du régime de Macky Sall (2012-2024), le Pastef avait clairement annoncé son intention de rester au pouvoir pendant au moins un demi-siècle. Mais l’histoire politique montre que la cohabitation de longue durée entre des figures fortes, ayant des ambitions présidentielles, est souvent irréaliste et de courte durée. Le tandem Sonko-Faye ne fait pas exception.

Si Faye décidait de se séparer du noyau dur du Pastef, sa nouvelle coalition “Diomaye Président” pourrait rencontrer d’énormes difficultés. Malgré le contrôle du pouvoir exécutif, elle aurait alors du mal à rivaliser avec la légitimité populaire d’Ousmane Sonko, au Sénégal et dans la diaspora.

De plus, sans majorité au parlement, la coalition “Diomaye Président” aurait sans doute du mal à faire voter des lois et à mettre en œuvre des réformes importantes avant la prochaine présidentielle prévue en 2029. Lors des dernières élections législatives, le Pastef, sous la direction de Sonko, a remporté 130 des 165 sièges. Beaucoup de ces députés ont affirmé leur loyauté envers le Premier ministre.

En outre, des partisans appellent déjà à l’élection de Sonko en 2029. Ce dernier a lui-même rappelé que sa potentielle candidature en 2029, ne souffre d’aucun obstacle légal. Ses partisans estiment que le président Faye est en train de s’éloigner du “projet”. Étant donné la popularité actuelle du Pastef, l’affronter pour le reste du mandat serait très difficile pour le président Faye. D’autant qu’il peine déjà à mettre en œuvre des réformes politiques, sociales ou économiques significatives.

Face à cette situation, les citoyens sénégalais sont inquiets. Ils sont pris en étau entre une grave crise économique et financière et des années d’instabilité politique, après des décennies d’efforts.

Ces prévisions inquiétantes pourraient être évitées. Il faudrait pour cela de la sagesse politique et une ambition collective pour préserver l’intérêt public en apaisant les différends.

En définitive, le Sénégal, nation jeune et démocratique, n’est pas à l’abri des crises politiques. Elles menacent souvent la stabilité du pays. L’élection présidentielle de 2024 devait marquer la fin d’un régime et annoncer la disparition de “l’État néo-colonialiste”.

Le président Faye et son Premier ministre Ousmane Sonko incarnent l’espoir d’une grande partie du peuple pour des réformes radicales. Mais leurs divergences politiques pourraient compromettre la stabilité du pays et la mise en œuvre du “projet”, dans un contexte de crise de la dette très préoccupant.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Sénégal : pourquoi et comment le tandem Diomaye-Sonko a déraillé – https://theconversation.com/senegal-pourquoi-et-comment-le-tandem-diomaye-sonko-a-deraille-270822

Black-market oil buyers will push Venezuela for bigger discounts following US seizure – starving Maduro of much-needed revenue

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Francisco J. Monaldi, Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy, Rice University

A video posted on Attorney General Pam Bondi’s X account shows the moment an oil tanker was seized by U.S. forces off the coast of Venezuela. U.S. Attorney General’s Office/X via AP

The U.S. seizure of an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast looks designed to further squeeze the economy of President Nicolás Maduro’s country.

The Dec. 10, 2025, operation – in which American forces descended from helicopters onto the vessel – follows months of U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and was immediately condemned by the Venezuelan government as “barefaced robbery and an act of international piracy.”

But what exactly is the Trump administraion’s aim in going after the tanker, and how could this impact the already beleaguered economy of Venezuela? The Conversation U.S. turned to Rice University’s Francisco J. Monaldi, an expert on Latin American energy policy, for answers.

What do we know about the tanker that was seized?

The seized tanker, which according to reports is a 20-year-old vessel called the Skipper, is a supertanker that can carry around 2 million barrels of oil.

According to the Trump administration, the vessel was heading to Cuba. But because of the size of the ship, I strongly suspect that the final destination was likely China – tankers the size of the seized one don’t tend to be used to take oil across the Caribbean to Cuba. The ones used for that task are far smaller.

This particular tanker was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2022 due to it carrying prohibited Iranian oil. At the time, it was claimed that the ship – then called Adisa – was controlled by Russian oil magnate Viktor Artemov and was engaged in an oil smuggling network.

Attorney General Pam Bondi released a video of the seizure on X.

So the latest U.S. seizure was, on the surface, unrelated to the sanctions placed on Venezuela by U.S. authorities in 2019 and expanded in 2020 to include secondary sanctions – that is, on countries that do business on the targeted nation or company.

As such, Venezuelan officials have said this is unprecedented. And they are largely right. While there have been a few occasions in which Iranian tankers have been seized due to sanctions busting, this is the first time that there has been a seizure of a vessel departing Venezuela and with a Venezuelan crew.

The Trump administration has signaled that it is not only seizing the cargo but the ship itself – which would represent a significant loss for the company owning the ship. The loss will be borne by the company, not Venezuela, as it was under a “Free on Board” contract, meaning that as soon as it left Venezuela the buyer takes responsibility for it.

Nonetheless, this is a significant escalation of the pressure campaign on Venezuela, which looks set to continue. Reuters has reported that around 30 other tankers near Venezuela have some kind of sanction against them. They form part of a large shadow fleet that try to skirt sanctions through hiding their identity while transporting oil from Russia, Venezuela and Iran.

The signal from U.S. officials is that they are prepared to go after more vessels and further squeeze Venezuela’s oil revenues through fresh sanctions.

How often they will seize vessels is not known, but the clear threat from the White House is that the U.S. will continue with this seizure campaign.

How important are oil exports to Venezuela?

Venezuela’s economy is tremendously dependent on oil production.

We do not have exact figures, as the Venezuela government has not published them in seven years, but most analysts believe oil constitutes north of 80% of all of the country’s exports – some even put this figure above 90%.

Most of that oil goes to the black market, and a majority ends up with independent refiners in China. State-owned enterprises in China tend not to buy this oil because they do not want to fall foul of the sanctions regime. But Beijing tends to turn a blind eye to tankers heading to non-state entities, especially if those tankers have hidden their true identity so it doesn’t look like they are coming from Venezuela.

Oil rigs are seen on a large body of water.
Oil production makes up a large chunk of Venezuela’s economy.
Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images

Around 80% of Venezuelan oil goes to China in this way; around 17% goes to the U.S. through a license awarded by the U.S. Treasury to oil giant Chevron. And 3% goes to Cuba, which tends to be subsidized by the Venezuelan government.

Venezuela’s economy itself is also very dependent on oil, with the sector making up about 20% of total GDP, more than any other industry. And when it comes to government income, the oil sector makes up north of 50%.

How have US actions affected Venezuelan oil production?

It is important to know that even before U.S. sanctions began in 2019, Venezuela’s oil production was in severe decline.

In 1998, before Hugo Chávez, the leftist military officer who became a populist president, came to power, oil production peaked at around 3.4 million barrels a day. By the time Chávez died and Maduro succeeded him in 2013, it had fallen to 2.7 million barrels a day.

When U.S. sanctions targeting the state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, were enacted in 2019, production was down to 1.3 million barrels a day – but that had already been affected by the other financial sanctions that came in two years earlier.

The oil sanctions of 2019 closed the U.S. market, taking away half a million barrels a day that at the time headed from Venezuela to the U.S. As a result, Venezuela had to increase oil sales to India and China.

But then the 2020 secondary sanctions, which apply to countries doing business with Venezuela, came in. As a result, Europe and India stopped buying Venezuelan oil, meaning that its only markets were Cuba and China. Of course, that year also saw the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in a massive cooling of the oil market globally.

Venezuelan oil production collapsed to 400,000 barrels a day that year. Today it has recovered to around 1 million barrels a day. This has been helped by the U.S. allowing Chevron – which, after Petróleos de Venezuela, is the second-largest oil company operating in the country – to continue production.

How does Venezuela get around oil sanctions?

Venezuela relies on a shadow fleet to help it skirt U.S. sanctions. These vessels hide their identity by using false flags and false names.

Companies often take a tanker that is going to be retired and change the identity, put on a new coat of paint and make sure transponders – devices that transmit radio signals to give a map reading – are doctored so that it looks like the ship is in a different place altogether.

These ships arrive in Venezuela, pick up oil and then set sail. Sometimes they then transfer the cargo to another ship – which carries huge environmental risks. And then it arrives typically in Malaysia, where it takes on a Malaysian identity and on it goes to China.

What impact has this latest seizure had on the price of oil?

The seizure had little impact on global oil prices, because of exiting oversupply and due to the fact that Venezuela makes up only around 1% of the overall market. That could change, depending on how aggressive the U.S. gets. But the Trump administration will be mindful that it doesn’t want to see domestic prices rise as a result.

A man in white stands in the center of a large crowd.
Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro faces growing pressure over his country’s economic problems.
Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu via Getty Images

As to the price of Venezuelan oil, that could be more drastic. Venezuelan oil is already sold at a discount on the black market because of the existing risk relating to the sanctions. This latest action is likely to widen these discounts even further.

In addition, Venezuela has until now required companies to pay some of the payment for oil cargo upfront – and a lot will be unwilling to do so now, due to high costs involved in a U.S. seizure. For example, a tanker of 2 million barrels, even with the current discount, will be worth around US$100 millon – no one wants to risk that much money. So very few buyers will be willing to prepay. Instead they will expect Venezuela to share the risk.

The bottom line for Maduro is that the only way to get someone to buy Venezuelan oil amid the heightened risk of this moment is to offer higher discounts with fewer prepayments. Besides discounts, export volumes could also be affected and that in turn would lead to production cuts, which are costly to reverse.

And all this will further choke off the already limited revenue that Maduro is relying on to keep Venezuela’s government functioning.

The Conversation

Francisco J. Monaldi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Black-market oil buyers will push Venezuela for bigger discounts following US seizure – starving Maduro of much-needed revenue – https://theconversation.com/black-market-oil-buyers-will-push-venezuela-for-bigger-discounts-following-us-seizure-starving-maduro-of-much-needed-revenue-271896