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July 11, 2025

Overhauling the NHS app is at the heart of UK healthcare plans, but it could leave some people behind

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Catia Nicodemo, Professor of Health Economics, Brunel University of London

The ‘doctor in your pocket’ will see you soon. CeltStudio/Shutterstock

The UK government’s ten-year health plan promises a radical digital transformation of the NHS. A key part of this change is said to come from developing the NHS app, which is being hailed as a “doctor in your pocket”.

The upgraded app will apparently offer features like instant health advice, appointment booking, prescription management and access to personal health records. It is hoped the software will become users’ “front door” to the NHS.

It’s an ambitious vision which aims to empower patients, streamline services and reduce red tape. And for tech-savvy users, these innovations could significantly improve access to care, reduce waiting times and enhance patient autonomy.

But while it may herald a new era of convenience for many, it risks leaving behind anyone who struggles with an increasingly digital world. This could then exacerbate health inequalities which already exist – and increase pressure on some areas of already strained services.

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In particular, a digital-first approach to healthcare risks excluding older adults, who may lack the skills or resources to confidently navigate the necessary software. The media regulator Ofcom estimates that around 6% of UK households still lack internet access at home. Figures from the charity Age UK suggest that 33% of people over 75 in the UK lack basic digital skills.

With regard to health specifically, a 2024 study found that older patients were more likely to misunderstand automated symptom checkers, leading to unnecessary anxiety or delayed care.

For these people, the planned shift to app-based services could create new barriers to accessing care, potentially leading to delayed diagnoses and worsening health outcomes.

The NHS plan does at least acknowledge this divide, and says it will confer with patient groups and work with other establishments (such as libraries) to support digital literacy. But these measures will not be enough without guaranteed funding.

And older people, even those who are comfortable with technology, may face other challenges such as visual impairment or cognitive decline, which can make using apps difficult.

Others who struggle to use the NHS App for routine care may delay seeking help until their conditions worsen, placing avoidable strain on overstretched hospitals.

Digital diversion

This strain might include digital triage inadvertently funnelling non-urgent cases to A&E if users misinterpret symptoms or find the app’s guidance unclear, a risk compounded by the lack of human oversight in automated systems. Or a patient with chronic pain might avoid the app due to digital anxiety or confusion, and end up going to A&E when their condition becomes unbearable and more costly to treat.

Two women of different generations use a smartphone together. — Not everyone is comfortable with apps.
Halfpoint/Shutterstock

To avoid all of this, the NHS needs to maintain traditional communication options. Telephone and in-person services must remain accessible and widely available. The ten-year plan’s focus on “digital by default” should not become “digital only”.

There should also be plenty of investment to help people feel digitally empowered and included. Places like libraries and community centres can certainly help, but targeted outreach will also be necessary, such as partnerships with charities.

This is not to say the NHS should be overly wary of the benefits of increased digital capabilities. The ten-year plan highlights, for example, the app’s potential to alleviate some of the burdens on healthcare staff, with AI able to take care of admin, saving clinicians time which can be used for patient care instead.

Such efficiencies are critical for a system grappling with workforce shortages and rising demand. Yet if digital tools are not universally accessible or usable, not everyone will benefit.

So while the NHS’s digital ambitions are commendable, their success hinges on inclusivity. If it’s not careful, the system risks entrenching a two-tier system where younger, tech-literate patients benefit while older and disadvantaged groups face greater exclusion. As the NHS embraces innovation, it must ensure no one is left behind – especially those who rely on it the most.

Catia Nicodemo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Overhauling the NHS app is at the heart of UK healthcare plans, but it could leave some people behind – https://theconversation.com/overhauling-the-nhs-app-is-at-the-heart-of-uk-healthcare-plans-but-it-could-leave-some-people-behind-260540

July 11, 2025

How citizens’ assemblies could improve animal welfare

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Heather Browning, Lecturer in Philosophy, University of Southampton

Heather Browning speaks about animal welfare and ethics as part of the Citizens’ Assembly for Animal Welfare opening event in Birmingham. RSPCA, CC BY-NC-ND

As an animal lover, should you visit zoos? Should you have pets? Should you make your garden friendly for birds, pollinators and other wildlife? Should you try to reduce meat in your diet or avoid consuming all animal products? Should you write to politicians about changing the laws for animals?

As a lecturer in animal ethics and animal welfare science, and someone who’s spent a lot of time working with animals, these are the sorts of questions I think about.

There are lots of ways to be kinder to animals. All have their merits. But the big question is: what sort of future do we want to see for animals in our society?

We live in a time where animals are facing some of their biggest challenges, from the climate crisis to industrial farming. Combined with other social issues such as the cost of living crisis and global conflicts, we as citizens and consumers have many other competing claims on our capacity to care. This can mean less attention for animals and the harms they face.

This creates a big problem. Alongside the ethical reasons for improving animals’ lives, good animal welfare can benefit everyone – among other things, care for and connections with animals improves our own mental health, fosters compassion in our communities, and can lead to improvements in our natural environment. We don’t want to lose sight of the progress we’ve made in our thinking about and treatment of animals.

It’s undeniable that there have been many welfare gains for animals over the years, but in the face of how far we still have to go, perhaps new approaches are needed. How can we conceive of new, and perhaps more radical, ways to help animals? And importantly, how do we keep animal welfare on the agenda, both socially and politically?

For over two centuries, the Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) has played a central role in this fight. Alongside their animal rescue work, they have campaigned for changes in over 400 laws, and worked with the public to find ways to improve welfare for pets, farmed animals and wildlife.

This year they are stepping into a new frontier and have commissioned what is possibly the first ever citizens’ assembly focused entirely on animal welfare in the world, delivered with the assistance of experts from the New Citizen Project, a consultancy that specialises in citizen-led engagement. The assembly is part of the RSPCA’s Animal Futures project, which aims to examine what the future may hold for animals by 2050, and most importantly how everyone (citizens, consumers and policymakers) has a role in influencing this.

chickens farmed outside, green grass and open air — Citizens’ assemblies are being held to debate animal welfare issues, such as chicken farming for eggs.
Dewald Kirsten/Shutterstock

Citizens’ assemblies bring together a randomly selected representative sample of the population, who learn about and debate issues and make recommendations. It’s a form of deliberative democracy, where the people can have their say on important social and political issues.

Assemblies are a means of overcoming some of the current problems with the democratic process, like the exclusion of people who often aren’t heard in politics (such as those with less money or education, or racial and religious minorities) and polarisation between major government parties that can slow down decision-making and action.

Beyond just a focus group asking for existing opinions, citizen’s assemblies provide opportunities for members to learn and shape their thinking, to build expertise on the topics they deliberate.

Assemblies have already been used around the world on issues as diverse as abortion rights, electoral reform and food waste. As they are independently facilitated, they don’t just follow the accepted institutional narratives and can instead encourage organisations and policymakers to envision new directions for thought and action – in line with the realities of what the public believe and value.

There are now several examples of the recommendations coming from such assemblies successfully driving policy change, such as climate change reform in France.

While organisations such as the RSPCA may know a lot about animals, hosting this assembly is an acknowledgement that they don’t have all the answers about what is best for society as a whole, as we consider our interactions with animals. The scope of this problem is far larger than any one organisation can tackle alone, and through initiatives such as the citizens’ assembly, we can gain a greater insight into the possible solutions for the future.

Animal assembly

I recently attended this assembly’s opening session in Birmingham, where members were gathered from all around England and Wales (neatly marked by pins scattered across a map of the country). Looking around the room there was obvious diversity in demographics and backgroun and as I spoke with the members it was also apparent there was a wide range of opinions and beliefs on the topics we discussed.

What everyone shared was a commitment to the process – to learn from the experts who were there to introduce the topics, to deliberate and discuss carefully and thoughtfully – and a desire to contribute and influence the process. Being there felt like being part of an important moment for the future of animal welfare.

In the weeks that followed, the members of the assembly met again several times to absorb and consider huge amounts of information about topics such as farming, responsible pet ownership, wildlife, and nature. Based on this, they will make a series of recommendations that will drive change at the RSPCA.

What they produce will be used to shape its future direction, how it works, and how it lobbies governments. What these assembly members recommend could have a substantial and lasting impact on animal welfare in the UK.

Like many animal welfare experts from academia, industry or charities, I might think I have the answers on what animals need. But successful solutions require public backing to have real impact. Improving the future for animals is something that everyone has a role in and a citizens’ assembly can be a catalyst for positive change.

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Heather Browning does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How citizens’ assemblies could improve animal welfare – https://theconversation.com/how-citizens-assemblies-could-improve-animal-welfare-259755

July 11, 2025

Pets can get sunburned too – what you need to know

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jacqueline Boyd, Senior Lecturer in Animal Science, Nottingham Trent University

While there is good awareness of the potential dangers of pets overheating in high temperatures during summer months, recognising that the sunburn itself can be a source of harm is also important.

We might think that our furry friends are protected from the sun’s harmful rays thanks to their typical hairiness, but in reality, we need to protect them too.

This is especially important for pets with light-coloured hair, pale, pink skin or those with fine or thin coats such as the sphynx cat or the xoloitzcuintle dog that lack natural protection.

For pets that live outdoors or spend a lot of time in the sun, this can also be a significant problem.

Pink skin lacks the pigment, melanin, that provides a natural level of protection from sunlight. As a result, pets with exposed areas of pink skin can become painfully sunburned, even on days that might not appear overly sunny. The tips of cats’ ears are commonly affected, as are horses with pink muzzles and other lightly pigmented areas of their body.

Dogs can also be affected on their noses and bellies – I have even known one unfortunate pooch to suffer sunburn on his scrotum after a period of garden sunbathing. Essentially, just like us, any unprotected area of skin that is exposed to the sun can become painfully burned, with both short and more prolonged effects.

Even minor areas of sunburn are associated with reddening of the skin, irritation and discomfort. More severe cases of sunburn can cause blistering, crusting and scabs to form on affected areas. While these signs typically heal and resolve quickly, they can be painful and distressing for our pets.

The longer-term consequences can include significant damage to the skin and may increase the risk of certain forms of skin cancer developing.

There is also the potential for thermal burns to occur after exposure to intense sunlight, especially over the backs of animals. These can be severe, affecting the full thickness of the skin and causing significant distress.

Consequently, protecting our pets from the pain of sunburn is important.

How to protect your pet

An easy way to keep your pet safe both from the damaging UV radiation in sunlight and high temperatures, is to limit their access outdoors during the sunniest and warmest times of the day. This might mean exercising your dog early in the morning and later in the evening, providing shade and shelter for horses and encouraging cats to sunbathe safely indoors.

The use of sunscreen can be a useful protective method to limit harm to exposed areas of skin, but do select a pet-safe sunscreen. Many human sunscreen preparations contain ingredients that can be toxic for our pets, especially if accidentally licked and ingested.

Reapply sunscreen regularly and don’t forget to apply it to the areas most likely to be exposed, such as ears, noses and pink-skinned or lightly coated areas of the body.

For some pets, suitable protective clothing and coverings, including UV eye protection might be appropriate, although do take time to get your pet used to wearing and moving in these before use.

What if your pet has been sunburned?

If your pet gets a mild sunburn but seems comfortable and not in distress, a cold compress can offer some soothing relief. Gently apply it to the affected area to help ease discomfort. Keep a close eye on the healing process, and be sure to protect your pet from further sun exposure.

In more severe cases, contact your vet for advice and additional treatment. Painkillers or antibiotics might be needed and these can only be prescribed for your pet by a veterinary surgeon.

Equally, if you find unusual areas on your pet’s skin such as non-healing or unusually crusty sores and are concerned that it could be a sign of skin cancer, speak to your vet for guidance and support.

Global UV levels are increasing. This means that in the same way that we have increased exposure to potentially harmful levels, our pets do too. By managing how our pets experience sunshine and by using protective options where possible, we can go some way to avoiding the pain and distress of sunburn, as well as the more serious possible long-term consequences such as skin cancer.

In addition to her academic affiliation at Nottingham Trent University (NTU) and support from the Institute for Knowledge Exchange Practice (IKEP) at NTU, Jacqueline Boyd is affiliated with The Kennel Club (UK) through membership, as advisor to the Health Advisory Group and membership of the Activities Committee. Jacqueline is also a full member of the Association of Pet Dog Trainers (APDT #01583). She also writes, consults and coaches on canine matters on an independent basis.

– ref. Pets can get sunburned too – what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/pets-can-get-sunburned-too-what-you-need-to-know-260076

July 11, 2025

The forgotten 80-year-old machine that shaped the internet – and could help us survive AI

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martin Rudorfer, Lecturer in Computer Science, Aston University

Many years ago, long before the internet or artificial intelligence, an American engineer called Vannevar Bush was trying to solve a problem. He could see how difficult it had become for professionals to research anything, and saw the potential for a better way.

This was in the 1940s, when anyone looking for articles, books or other scientific records had to go to a library and search through an index. This meant drawers upon drawers filled with index cards, typically sorted by author, title or subject.

When you had found what you were looking for, creating copies or excerpts was a tedious, manual task. You would have to be very organised in keeping your own records. And woe betide anyone who was working across more than one discipline. Since every book could physically only be in one place, they all had to be filed solely under a primary subject. So an article on cave art couldn’t be in both art and archaeology, and researchers would often waste extra time trying to find the right location.

This had always been a challenge, but an explosion in research publications in that era had made it far worse than before. As Bush wrote in an influential essay, As We May Think, in The Atlantic in July 1945:

There is a growing mountain of research. But there is increased evidence that we are being bogged down today as specialisation extends. The investigator is staggered by the findings and conclusions of thousands of other workers – conclusions which he cannot find time to grasp, much less to remember, as they appear.

Bush was dean of the school of engineering at MIT (the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and president of the Carnegie Institute. During the second world war, he had been the director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, coordinating the activities of some 6,000 scientists working relentlessly to give their country a technological advantage. He could see that science was being drastically slowed down by the research process, and proposed a solution that he called the “memex”.

The memex was to be a personal device built into a desk that required little physical space. It would rely heavily on microfilm for data storage, a new technology at the time. The memex would use this to store large numbers of documents in a greatly compressed format that could be projected onto translucent screens.

Most importantly, Bush’s memex was to include a form of associative indexing for tying two items together. The user would be able to use a keyboard to click on a code number alongside a document to jump to an associated document or view them simultaneously – without needing to sift through an index.

Bush acknowledged in his essay that this kind of keyboard click-through wasn’t yet technologically feasible. Yet he believed it would be soon, pointing to existing systems for handling data such as punched cards as potential forerunners.

Woman operating a punched card machine — Punched cards were an early way of storing digital information.
Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

He envisaged that a user would create the connections between items as they developed their personal research library, creating chains of microfilm frames in which the same document or extract could be part of multiple trails at the same time.

New additions could be inserted either by photographing them on to microfilm or by purchasing a microfilm of an existing document. Indeed, a user would be able to augment their memex with vast reference texts. “New forms of encyclopedias will appear,” said Bush, “ready-made with a mesh of associative trails running through them, ready to be dropped into the memex”. Fascinatingly, this isn’t far from today’s Wikipedia.

Where it led

Bush thought the memex would help researchers to think in a more natural, associative way that would be reflected in their records. He is thought to have inspired the American inventors Ted Nelson and Douglas Engelbart, who in the 1960s independently developed hypertext systems, in which documents contained hyperlinks that could directly access other documents. These became the foundation of the world wide web as we know it.

Beyond the practicalities of having easy access to so much information, Bush believed that the added value in the memex lay in making it easier for users to manipulate ideas and spark new ones. His essay drew a distinction between repetitive and creative thought, and foresaw that there would soon be new “powerful mechanical aids” to help with the repetitive variety.

He was perhaps mostly thinking about mathematics, but he left the door open to other thought processes. And 80 years later, with AI in our pockets, we’re automating far more thinking than was ever possible with a calculator.

If this sounds like a happy ending, Bush did not sound overly optimistic when he revisited his own vision in his 1970 book Pieces of the Action. In the intervening 25 years, he had witnessed technological advances in areas like computing that were bringing the memex closer to reality.

Yet Bush felt that the technology had largely missed the philosophical intent of his vision – to enhance human reasoning and creativity:

In 1945, I dreamed of machines that would think with us. Now, I see machines that think for us – or worse, control us.

Bush would die just four years later at the age of 84, but these concerns still feel strikingly relevant today. While it’s great that we do not need to search for a book by flipping through index cards in chests of drawers, we might feel more uneasy about machines doing most of the thinking for us.

A phone screen with AI apps — Just 80 years after Bush proposed the Memex, AIs on smartphones are an everyday thing.
jackpress

Is this technology enhancing and sharpening our skills, or is it making us lazy? No doubt everyone is different, but the danger is that whatever skills we leave to the machines, we eventually lose, and younger generations may not even get the opportunity to learn them in the first place.

The lesson from As We May Think is that a purely technical solution like the memex is not enough. Technology still needs to be human-centred, underpinned by a philosophical vision. As we contemplate a great automation in human thinking in the years ahead, the challenge is to somehow protect our creativity and reasoning at the same time.

Martin Rudorfer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The forgotten 80-year-old machine that shaped the internet – and could help us survive AI – https://theconversation.com/the-forgotten-80-year-old-machine-that-shaped-the-internet-and-could-help-us-survive-ai-260839

July 11, 2025

Pallets are the backbone of global trade but supplies are threatened by theft, loss – and giant bonfires

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Liz Breen, Professor of Health Service Operations, School of Pharmacy & Medical Sciences, University of Bradford

Craigyhill bonfire was declared the world’s tallest at a height of 203 feet (63 metres) in 2022. Thousands of pallets were used to build it. Stephen Barnes/Shutterstock

Pallets don’t usually make headlines. But amid fresh controversy around the traditional July bonfires held in Northern Ireland this year, they’ve suddenly become a talking point. Wooden pallets used in these bonfires are popular due to their stacking ability, and also their colours – which include the red, white and blue of Britain.

Ordinarily, pallets are used to transport products from manufacturers to retailers. But their numbers are shrinking due to theft and loss – and of course, they cost money to buy, store, use and replace. A study by one of us (Liz) in 2006 quoted a logistics firm that estimated 14 million pallets were generally missing throughout Europe, costing £140 million. And it’s an ongoing problem: millions of products such as pallets and packaging containers are still stolen each year across the continent.

Just one bonfire in Larne, County Antrim, in July 2021 reportedly used 17,000 pallets in its construction. This year, police are investigating where the pallets used in the same community’s bonfire originated from. Amid speculation that some may belong to Australia-based supply chain firm Chep, that company has stated its pallets can never legally be bought, sold or destroyed.

Pallet losses can lead to logistical disruptions, delayed orders and bare shelves in supermarkets. And the impact is felt by pallet owners, manufacturers, customers and end-users alike.

Pallets are big business. In the US, around 513 million – mainly wooden, some plastic – are produced each year. In 2021, 48.6 million wooden pallets were produced in the UK, up 8.3% from 2020.

Rental companies can hold high numbers of pallets, which support the movement of “fast-moving” customer goods – including food, drinks and toiletries. North American firm Peco, for example, manages stock of over 20 million distinctive red wooden pallets across its 90 depots.

Manufacturers rely on pallets being available to fulfil orders and distribute them to customers quickly. Also known as “returnable transit packaging”, they are valuable assets as they can be maintained and reused. They are usually owned by a pallet pooling agent, which must absorb the loss when they are not returned from customers.

Why steal pallets?

Good-condition pallets have a resale value. Both wood and plastic pallets can be deconstructed and sold as components to other industries. Some people even use them to create furniture for homes and gardens.

Customers may feel these are legitimate upcycled products and won’t think to check where the pallets came from. However, some do have distinctive identification stamps that may remain in upcycled pallet products.

The organised theft of these products takes its toll on companies. Cargo crime (which includes consumer goods and transportation pallets and containers) is said to cost the UK economy £700 million each year.

If pallets are not available, production lines may be slowed down or stopped. And it may take longer to produce items, potentially leading to unnecessary transportation as well as greater fuel consumption and emissions.

But it can also be challenging to map pallet movements and know, at any given time, how many are in transit, with retailers, or lost. Digital tracking solutions such as radio frequency identification can be expensive to implement and are not foolproof. This can make it easy for pallets to go “missing in action”.

Pallets are a staple mechanism for stock to be received into retailers’ warehouses and distribution centres. Both the size of the pallets and their ownership can be colour-coded – at least some of the blue pallets making headlines this summer in Larne’s red, white and blue tower are thought to be owned by Chep. Warehouse bays are designed with specific pallets in mind – so changes to the pallets can bring extra costs.

Similarly, replacing lost or stolen pallets comes at a price – which could ultimately be felt by consumers if these costs are passed on by retailers.

Reducing theft and loss

Pallet owners cannot afford to continue losing them to theft. Firms that are found using non-compliant or untracked pallets because they have bought them from unauthorised sources can face shipment fines, while other initiatives, such as deposit or voucher schemes or one-for-one exchange plans, could incentivise the return of pallets.

These practices may influence corporate return behaviour, but the theft of pallets by organised crime gangs is increasing. Changing the materials used to construct pallets could reduce their financial attractiveness and resale value.

At first glance, a used pallet might look no more useful than discarded wood and be considered fair game for reuse or selling on. But businesses or individuals who collect, sell or purchase stolen pallets are putting themselves at legal risk. Firms found stockpiling or selling-on pallets without permission have faced legal action and even jail in Europe.

Aside from the legal implications, there are other operational and environmental costs. Each pallet taken out of circulation must be replaced, increasing demand for virgin timber, straining forest resources, and increasing labour costs.

The humble pallet is the backbone of global trading, and businesses rely on a steady and dependable supply. Pallet services function only if they continue to circulate – but theft and losses undermine this. Without this simple product, everyone from producers to retailers and consumers could end up paying more for the goods they take for granted.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Pallets are the backbone of global trade but supplies are threatened by theft, loss – and giant bonfires – https://theconversation.com/pallets-are-the-backbone-of-global-trade-but-supplies-are-threatened-by-theft-loss-and-giant-bonfires-260948

July 11, 2025

What would it take for a new British leftwing party to succeed?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Colm Murphy, Lecturer in British Politics, Queen Mary University of London

Last week, the MP for Coventry South, Zarah Sultana, made an audacious decision. Having already lost the Labour party whip for opposing the two-child benefit cap, Sultana announced she would co-lead a new leftwing party with Jeremy Corbyn, who was expelled from Labour in 2024.

From one angle, her decision may seem simple. Discontent with Keir Starmer’s Labour government, on everything from welfare cuts to Gaza, has never been higher, and Sultana is a vocal critic. Yet, launching a (still unnamed) new party is bold. It tackles head-on an old and vexing question for socialist critics of capitalism in the UK.

In 1976, the socialist theorist Ralph Miliband (yes, Ed and David’s dad) described the faith in Labour’s capacity to become a socialist vehicle as “the most crippling of all illusions”. But socialists who agree with Miliband senior then have an almighty problem.

Writing months after the 2019 defeat of Corbyn’s Labour party, the veteran “New Left” academics Colin Leys and Leo Panitch echoed Miliband in their book Searching for Socialism. But they also saw few immediate alternatives with “any prospect of electoral success”. This, they wrote, is the “central dilemma” for British democratic socialists.

The reaction to Sultana’s announcement from the British left has been accordingly mixed. Leaks revealed that Corbyn’s team was caught off guard. Responses from prominent potential supporters were reserved. Momentum, the leftwing grassroots organisation, hastily distributed the pamphlet Why Socialists Should Be in the Labour Party.

It’s too early to know whether these issues are teething problems or portents. But the barriers to Sultana’s venture are formidable. What would it take for a new leftwing party to succeed? What would “success” even look like?

A careful reading of political history can help us answer these questions. This is not the first time that new parties have emerged from Labour factionalism. Many readers will be aware of the 1981 departure of the “gang of four” Labour figures, who founded the Social Democratic party (SDP) that later merged with the Liberal party to form the Liberal Democrats.

Nor is it the first time that smaller parties have appeared on Labour’s left. Between 1920 and 1991, the Communist party of Great Britain was a potent force in the trade union movement. From the 1990s to the 2010s, several vehicles contested local and national elections against Labour, from the Socialist Alliance to Left Unity.

Challenges for a new party

Each of these iterations had its historical peculiarities. But stepping back, we can identify three recurring challenges that any leftwing insurgent party must confront.

First, they must agree on an electoral strategy and purpose, given the institutional brutality of British democracy. The UK has some proportional elections, including in Scotland and Wales (expected to be next contested in 2026). Councils are also possible avenues of influence.

But there is no avoiding the fact that legislative and executive power is hoarded in the House of Commons, elected by first past the post. Labour will discourage possible defectors by warning that a split in the left vote will let in the right. Neil Kinnock, Labour’s former leader who found himself fighting off the SDP while trying to evict Thatcher in the 1980s, dubbed Sultana and Corbyn’s venture the “Farage assistance party”.

Left of Labour parties are often aware of the risk. Indeed, far left activists have in the past advocated voting Labour, with “varying degrees of (un)enthusiasm”.

Advocates of a new party will note that Labour is only polling in the low 20s, suggesting a pool of ex-Labour voters potentially interested in shopping around. However, there are others it could torpedo too.

One recent poll on support for a hypothetical Corbyn-led party – which we should take with some salt – found that its 10% support comes partly from eating into the Green vote. An electoral arrangement with the Greens, on the other hand, may require shared policy platforms, raising the question of why a separate party is needed.

A poll from More in Common conducted specifically about a Sultana-Corbyn party found 9% of Labour voters and 26% of current Green voters saying that would vote for such a party.

The Socialist Labour party (SLP) – founded in 1996 by the prominent trade unionist Arthur Scargill in reaction to Tony Blair’s New Labour – is the obvious cautionary tale. Scargill wanted a purer, better Labour party. Yet, Labour looked set to kick out an 18-year-long Conservative government.

Scargill could not convince many sympathetic activists to join. As historian Alfie Steer argues, the SLP instead became dominated by socialists hostile to the Labour party. The party could not overcome the resultant contradictions in its purpose and collapsed into acrimony.

The SLP also illustrates the second key consideration: timing. The SLP struggled partly because it launched just as Labour was sweeping triumphantly into power. Sultana’s timing is arguably more astute. She has waited for Starmer’s bubble to burst and for disillusionment to fester.

However, the broad left within Labour has also just found its voice by rebelling against government policy. The temptation for a risk-averse Labour activist may be to leap onto this critical bandwagon without taking the more dangerous step of defecting.

Starmer and Corbyn side by side — Keir Starmer, then shadow Brexit secretary, accompanies then-Labour leader Corbyn to Brussels in 2019.
Alexandros Michailidis/Shutterstock

The final challenge is securing institutional durability without debilitating splits. It is telling that Sultana felt compelled to include Corbyn’s name despite his reported reservations.

Sultana herself has an impressive political profile, especially on TikTok. Any new party will rely heavily on prominent spokespeople to force it into the national conversation. Yet, such vehicles can become trapped by their dependence on individuals. The Respect party of the 2000s, for example, was reliant on the charismatic but polarising figure of George Galloway.

The fledgling party will also need a lasting structure that determines how candidates are selected and policy is formed. This risks dragging it into dreaded constitutional debates. It is already reportedly divided over the existence of co-leaders.

Intra-party democracy is off-putting to outsiders. But as constitutional scholar Meg Russell argues, it speaks to fundamental questions about the extent, and limits, of democracy. Such disputes have frequently wracked the left (and the radical right, as Reform’s recent constitutional changes show).

To what extent should policy be “democratically” decided? Should a new party limit who can join, and if so, on what criteria? How will leaders be selected? From the CPGB to the SLP, these questions have proven divisive in the past. They could easily prove so again.

The new party faces severe challenges, but it would be unwise to write it off completely. In a volatile context, it has a chance to make its mark if it is clear in its strategic electoral purpose, cultivates an institutional and activist base and times its interventions astutely. But the obstacles to success are enormous – and with Reform currently polling top, the risks are high.

Colm Murphy is currently a member of the Labour Party, but he is writing purely in an academic capacity.

– ref. What would it take for a new British leftwing party to succeed? – https://theconversation.com/what-would-it-take-for-a-new-british-leftwing-party-to-succeed-260599

July 11, 2025

Mirando a Srebrenica para entender Gaza: ¿cómo se prueba la intención de destruir a un grupo?

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Pilar Eirene de Prada, Profesora/Investigadora en Derecho Internacional y RRII, Universidad Francisco de Vitoria

Tumbas de civiles asesinados en Potocari, Srebrenica. dotshock/Shutterstock

Este mes de julio se cumplen treinta años de la masacre ocurrida en Srebrenica, un enclave montañoso ubicado en el este de Bosnia y Herzegovina, cercano a la frontera con Serbia. Entre el 6 y el 11 de julio de 1995, más de 8 000 hombres y niños bosniomusulmanes fueron asesinados por fuerzas serbobosnias en este lugar, declarado “zona segura” por Naciones Unidas, y bajo la protección directa de los cascos azules. Las escenas retransmitidas por los periodistas de guerra dieron la vuelta al mundo y marcaron un hito en la conciencia colectiva de Occidente.

Hoy, cuando las imágenes que llegan desde Gaza vuelven a activar el debate sobre qué constituye un genocidio, resulta imprescindible volver la mirada al caso de Srebrenica para entender cómo los tribunales internacionales interpretan este crimen internacional.

¿Por qué solo se reconoció el genocidio en Srebrenica?

El Tribunal Penal Internacional para la ex Yugoslavia (TPIY) reconoció la masacre de Srebrenica como genocidio. Fue un hito jurídico importante, pero también dejó un sabor amargo, especialmente en las víctimas. El tribunal solo calificó como genocidio los crímenes cometidos en Srebrenica, dejando fuera otros episodios de violencia igualmente sistemática contra la población bosniomusulmana ocurridos en otros municipios. ¿Por qué?

La respuesta está en una interpretación legal extremadamente restrictiva del crimen de genocidio. Según la Convención para la Prevención y la Sanción del Delito de Genocidio (1948), requiere probar que los actos (asesinatos, torturas, destrucción de condiciones de vida…) fueron cometidos con la “intención de destruir, total o parcialmente, a un grupo nacional, étnico, racial o religioso, como tal”.

El problema es cómo se interpreta esa “intención”. La jurisprudencia dominante ha adoptado lo que se conoce como purpose-based approach (enfoque fundado en la intencionalidad específica). Es decir, una exigencia de propósito consciente y deliberado de destrucción. Bajo esta lógica, no basta con demostrar que los actos tuvieron efectos devastadores para el grupo. Hay que probar que fueron cometidos con la intención específica de eliminarlo.

La intención genocida va más allá de una orden

En contextos modernos de conflicto, la intención de destruir a un grupo se evidencia a través de la acumulación de políticas públicas, decisiones militares, marcos normativos y narrativas sobre el otro. La prueba de cargo, ya sea una orden explícita, discursos que hablen abiertamente de aniquilación o referidos a un único acto de exterminio, se vuelve casi imposible de objetivar.

Además, limitar el genocidio a un episodio concentrado y mediáticamente visible deja fuera del radar muchas otras formas de destrucción colectiva, más complejas y larvadas.

El contexto es relevante

En este sentido, resulta cada vez más necesario repensar la manera en que identificamos el genocidio, que se aleja también del modelo totalizador del holocausto (para algunos único genocidio posible y por lo tanto irrepetible).

Una alternativa a este enfoque tradicional es lo que la doctrina jurídica crítica ha denominado knowledge-based approach, o enfoque basado en el conocimiento. Esta perspectiva no exige demostrar una voluntad explícita de exterminio, sino que se pregunta si los perpetradores sabían –o no podían ignorar– que sus actos contribuían a un patrón sistemático de destrucción del grupo.

Este enfoque se apoya en una visión más estructural y menos individualista del genocidio. El crimen no se comete solo desde una voluntad interna subjetiva, sino a través de patrones más amplios que podemos construir si tenemos en cuenta importantes elementos contextuales: políticas públicas, marcos legales de excepción, discursos deshumanizantes y/o decisiones estratégicas sostenidas en el tiempo. Bajo esta lógica, la responsabilidad penal no se diluye, sino que se adapta a las realidades contemporáneas de la violencia colectiva.

Del marco téorico a la práctica: Gaza

Este debate trasciende el marco teórico y tiene una gran relevancia en la práctica. Desde octubre de 2023, Gaza ha sido sometida a una campaña de destrucción progresiva: bombardeos masivos, cortes de suministro, desplazamientos forzados, hambre inducida y colapso sanitario. Más de 55 000 personas han muerto y cientos de miles han sido heridas. Pero más allá de las cifras, lo que está en juego es una forma sostenida de aniquilación del modo de vida palestino.

Así lo planteó Sudáfrica en la demanda presentada ante la Corte Internacional de Justicia en diciembre de 2023. Y se ratificó por la Corte en sus providencias de medidas provisionales.

En ellas, el principal órgano judicial de Naciones Unidas determinó que existe un riesgo real e inminente de que se cause un perjuicio irreparable al derecho del pueblo palestino en Gaza a ser protegido frente a actos genocidas y otras conductas prohibidas por la Convención. Y sin embargo, el reconocimiento jurídico de este escenario como genocidio sigue siendo objeto de gran disputa.

Rafael Lemkin, el jurista que acuñó el término “genocidio” en 1944, entendía este crimen no solo como la destrucción física de personas, sino como la eliminación de la vida colectiva de un grupo, su cultura, sus símbolos y sus condiciones de existencia.

Genocidio cultural: más allá de la violencia directa

Sin embargo, la definición legal vigente, moldeada por intereses coloniales y centrada en el modelo del Holocausto, excluyó deliberadamente el genocidio cultural. Esta visión estrecha ignora que los grupos humanos también pueden ser destruidos mediante políticas de desplazamiento y asimilación forzada. Unas estrategias que borran la memoria, el idioma o el vínculo con el territorio. Los grupos humanos no se destruyen solo con violencia directa.

Treinta años después de Srebrenica, urge una relectura crítica de la figura del genocidio. No para vaciarla de contenido, sino para restaurar su capacidad protectora frente a nuevas formas de destrucción colectiva. El conocimiento del perpetrador sobre el impacto de sus actos debe bastar para generar responsabilidad genocida. Especialmente si esos actos contribuyen a un plan sistemático de eliminación del grupo.

En un mundo donde el exterminio se administra burocráticamente, la justicia internacional debe aprender a reconocer y nombrar las violencias del presente. Incluso cuando no se ajustan a las categorías del pasado o correrá el riesgo de dejar impunes las formas contemporáneas de destrucción colectiva.

Pilar Eirene de Prada no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

– ref. Mirando a Srebrenica para entender Gaza: ¿cómo se prueba la intención de destruir a un grupo? – https://theconversation.com/mirando-a-srebrenica-para-entender-gaza-como-se-prueba-la-intencion-de-destruir-a-un-grupo-260461

July 11, 2025

Why it can be hard to warn people about dangers like floods – communication researchers explain the role of human behavior

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Keri K. Stephens, Professor & Co-Director, Technology & Information Policy Institute, The University of Texas at Austin

How emergency alerts convey risks matters. AP Photo/Eric Gay

Flash floods like the one that swept down the Guadalupe River in Texas on July 4, 2025, can be highly unpredictable. While there are sophisticated flood prediction models and different types of warning systems in some places, effective flood protection requires extensive preparedness and awareness.

It also requires an understanding of how people receive, interpret and act on risk information and warnings. Technology can be part of the solution, but ultimately people are the critical element in any response.

As researchers who study emergency communications, we have found that simply providing people with technical information and data is often not enough to effectively communicate the danger and prompt them to act.

The human element

One of us, Keri Stephens, has led teams studying flood risk communication. They found that people who have experienced a flood are more aware of the risks. Conversely, groups that have not lived through floods typically don’t understanding various flood risks such as storm surges and flash floods. And while first responders often engage in table-top exercises and drills – very important for their readiness to respond – there are only a few examples of entire communities actively participating in warning drills.

Messages used to communicate flood risk also matter, but people need to receive them. To that end, Keri’s teams have worked with the Texas Water Development Board to develop resources that help local flood officials sort through and prioritize information about a flood hazard so they can share what is most valuable with their local communities.

The commonly used “Turn Around Don’t Drown” message, while valuable, may not resonate equally with all groups. Newly developed and tested messages such as “Keep Your Car High and Dry” appeal specifically to young adults who typically feel invincible but don’t want their prized vehicles damaged. While more research is needed, this is an example of progress in understanding an important aspect of flood communication: how recipients of the information make decisions.

Interviews conducted by researchers often include responses along these lines: “Another flash flood warning. We get these all the time. It’s never about flooding where I am.” This common refrain reveals a fundamental challenge in flood communication. When people hear “flood warning,” they often think of different things, and interpretations can vary depending on a person’s proximity to the flooding event.

Some people equate flood warnings with streamflow gauges and sensors that monitor water levels – the technical infrastructure that triggers alerts when rivers exceed certain thresholds. Others think of mobile phone alerts, county- or geographic-specific notification systems, or even sirens.

a small yellow triangle enclosing a black exclamation point sits above a block of text — A typical alert from the National Weather Service.
AP Photo/Lisa Rathke

Beyond technologies and digital communication, warnings still come through informal networks in many communities. Emergency managers directly coordinate with and share information with major businesses and organizations, saying, “Hey, John, be sure you have somebody up tonight watching the National Weather Service alerts and rivers.”

This human-centered approach, similar to neighborhood-level systems we have studied in Japan, can provide direct confirmation that warnings have been received. This is something mass media and mobile systems cannot guarantee, especially during infrastructure failures such as power and cell tower outages.

Effective messages

Research shows that effective warning messages need to include five critical components: a clear hazard description, location-specific information, actionable guidance, timing cues and a credible source. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s integrated public alert and warning system message design dashboard assists authorities in rapidly drafting effective messages.

This warning system, known as IPAWS, provides nationwide infrastructure for wireless emergency alerts and Emergency Alert System messages. While powerful, IPAWS has limitations − not all emergency managers are trained to use it, and messages may extend beyond intended geographic areas. Also, many older mobile devices lack the latest capabilities, so they may not receive the most complete messages when they are sent.

Hyperlocal community opt-in systems can complement IPAWS by allowing residents to register for targeted notifications. These systems, which can be run by communities or local agencies, face their own challenges. People must know they exist, be willing to share phone numbers, and remember to update their information. Social media platforms add another communication channel, with emergency managers increasingly using social media to share updates, though these primarily reach only certain demographics, and not everyone checks social media regularly.

The key is redundancy through multiple communication channels. Research has found that multiple warnings are needed for people to develop a sense of urgency, and the most effective strategy is simple: Tell another person what’s going on. Interpersonal networks help ensure the message is delivered and can prompt actions. As former Natural Hazards Center Director Dennis Mileti observed: The wireless emergency alerts system “is fast. Mama is faster.”

A Colorado news report explains why emergency alerts have to be tailored for local needs and conditions and use multiple communication channels.

Warning fatigue

Professionals from the National Weather Service, FEMA and the Federal Communications Commission, along with researchers, are increasingly concerned about warning fatigue – when people tune out warnings because they receive too many of them.

However, there is limited empirical data about how and when people experience warning fatigue – or about its impact.

This creates a double bind: Officials have an obligation to warn people at risk, yet frequent warnings can desensitize recipients. More research is needed to determine the behavioral implications of and differences between warnings that people perceive as irrelevant to their immediate geographic area versus those that genuinely don’t apply to them. This distinction becomes especially critical when people might drive into flooded areas outside their immediate vicinity.

The key to effective emergency communication is to develop messages that resonate with specific audiences and build community networks that complement technological systems. We are now studying how to do this effectively in the United States and internationally. It’s also important to apply behavioral insights to the design of every level of communication warning systems. And it’s important to remember to test not just the technology but the entire end-to-end system, from threat identification to community response.

Finally, maintaining true redundancy across multiple communication channels is an important strategy when trying to reach as many people as possible. Technology supports human decision-making, but it doesn’t replace it.

Keri K. Stephens’ research reported here has been externally funded by the Texas Water Development Board, Texas General Land Office, and the National Science Foundation. Results published are peer-reviewed, and opinions reflect those of the author, not the funder.

Hamilton Bean has earned research funding from U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Results published are peer-reviewed, and opinions reflect those of the author, not the funder.

– ref. Why it can be hard to warn people about dangers like floods – communication researchers explain the role of human behavior – https://theconversation.com/why-it-can-be-hard-to-warn-people-about-dangers-like-floods-communication-researchers-explain-the-role-of-human-behavior-260780

July 11, 2025

Berg winds in South Africa: the winter weather pattern that increases wildfire risks

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sheldon Strydom, Senior Lecturer & Head of Department, Department of Geography, Rhodes University

After a fire. Hendrik van den Berg, via Wikimedia Commons., CC BY

Winter in some parts of South Africa is a time of low (or no) rainfall and high fire danger. Sheldon Strydom studies the relationship between weather and fire, in particular how Berg winds, also known as mountain flow events, are linked to periods of enhanced fire danger. Mid-July is typically a high risk period. He shares what he has learnt during his research in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa, close to the country’s largest mountain range, the Drakensberg.

What are Berg winds and how do they form?

It’s long been known that mountain winds (“foëhn winds”, “chinook winds” and the like) increase fire danger. There’s case study evidence from around the globe.

In South Africa, these mountain winds are known as Berg winds. They are generally experienced as warm and dry.

A mountain wind starts when a mass of air is forced to rise along a windward slope (the side of the mountain that wind is blowing towards). As the mass of air rises it cools. When it reaches the peak of the slope or mountain it descends on the leeward (sheltered) side. As it gets lower, the air gets warmer.

Berg winds commonly occur in South African winters when high atmospheric pressure systems are situated over the interior of the country and low pressure systems are situated off the coast. (Atmospheric pressure is the pressure of air over the land, and affects the movement of air.)

Usually, a coastal low pressure system happens a day or two before a cold front. The pressure gradient (difference in pressure that drives wind) between the interior high pressure cell and coastal low pressure cell results in air flowing towards the coast from the interior of the country, down the mountain escarpment. The air reaches coastal areas as a warm, dry wind.

Why study the relationship between Berg winds and fires?

Winds can spread fires in the landscape.

Our study, using data from four sites in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, quantified the effect of Berg winds on the microclimate (local weather conditions) and emphasised how these changes influence fire danger.

The sources of fires in South Africa, as elsewhere, vary. For example, wildfires can be started when prescribed burning, or the planned use of fire, becomes uncontrolled due to changes in weather conditions. Accidental fires and arson are the most common causes of wildfires. Research shows that wildfires and fire disasters are common in areas where prescribed burning is used.

Prescribed burning, or the planned use of fire, is an important aspect of agricultural management. It promotes the dispersal and germination of seeds from a number of species and also removes ground litter. Prescribed burning is used to manage grasslands and has been linked to decreasing the number of disease-borne vectors such as ticks.

But if they get out of control, fires pose a threat to farmland and plantations.

It’s therefore vital to have weather forecasts and monitoring systems that warn of conditions conducive to the development and spread of fires.

Internationally, fire danger indices or meters are used to monitor conditions. In South Africa, the South African Weather Service and other interested and affected parties currently use the Lowveld fire danger index. The index is calculated using records of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and rainfall. These are measured once a day. Daily forecasts are available from the Weather Service and disseminated to local fire protection associations.

Much research in South Africa has focused on pyrogeography (understanding when and where fires occur) and fire ecology. Little research has been done to quantify the effects of Berg winds on fire danger using available historical hourly meteorological data.

The midlands of KwaZulu-Natal province serve as a perfect environment to study the effects of Berg winds on the microclimate and fire danger. The area is close to the Drakensberg mountains and experiences frequent fires. It’s also a largely agricultural area.

What did you discover?

The study developed a fuzzy logic system (a mathematical method for handling uncertainty) to identify periods of Berg wind conditions using historical hourly meteorological data in four sites.

We analysed variables like the air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and fire danger at different times of the day and night, before and during Berg winds.

The analysis revealed the significance of change experienced in the local weather conditions (within 2km) during periods of Berg winds, and how these changes influence fire danger.

It found that:

Berg winds were more common during daytime hours and affected the microclimate most during the day
during daytime Berg wind events, air temperatures rose by an average of 5.5°C; humidity fell by an average of 16%; and wind speed increased by an average of 5.2 metres per second
daytime Berg wind events significantly elevated fire danger
night-time Berg winds, while less common, did still result in significant change in the microclimate
at night, fire danger increases when a combination of variables change significantly.

The fuzzy logic system can be useful in two ways: to quantify the effects of Berg winds on the microclimate and to complement any fire danger monitoring system. It can measure conditions at a higher temporal resolution, such as every 10 minutes, or hour – making it more useful for monitoring near real-time changes in fire danger.

The system could be valuable for operational use by agencies like the KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Disaster Management Centre, and could be applied in other regions vulnerable to fire risk.

Sheldon Strydom receives funding from Rhodes University, and the National Research Foundation.

Michael John Savage has received funding from the NRF.

– ref. Berg winds in South Africa: the winter weather pattern that increases wildfire risks – https://theconversation.com/berg-winds-in-south-africa-the-winter-weather-pattern-that-increases-wildfire-risks-260612

July 11, 2025

AI in health care could save lives and money − but change won’t happen overnight

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Turgay Ayer, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

AI will help human physicians by analyzing patient data prior to surgery. Boy_Anupong/Moment via Getty Images

Imagine walking into your doctor’s office feeling sick – and rather than flipping through pages of your medical history or running tests that take days, your doctor instantly pulls together data from your health records, genetic profile and wearable devices to help decipher what’s wrong.

This kind of rapid diagnosis is one of the big promises of artificial intelligence for use in health care. Proponents of the technology say that over the coming decades, AI has the potential to save hundreds of thousands, even millions of lives.

What’s more, a 2023 study found that if the health care industry significantly increased its use of AI, up to US$360 billion annually could be saved.

But though artificial intelligence has become nearly ubiquitous, from smartphones to chatbots to self-driving cars, its impact on health care so far has been relatively low.

A 2024 American Medical Association survey found that 66% of U.S. physicians had used AI tools in some capacity, up from 38% in 2023. But most of it was for administrative or low-risk support. And although 43% of U.S. health care organizations had added or expanded AI use in 2024, many implementations are still exploratory, particularly when it comes to medical decisions and diagnoses.

I’m a professor and researcher who studies AI and health care analytics. I’ll try to explain why AI’s growth will be gradual, and how technical limitations and ethical concerns stand in the way of AI’s widespread adoption by the medical industry.

Inaccurate diagnoses, racial bias

Artificial intelligence excels at finding patterns in large sets of data. In medicine, these patterns could signal early signs of disease that a human physician might overlook – or indicate the best treatment option, based on how other patients with similar symptoms and backgrounds responded. Ultimately, this will lead to faster, more accurate diagnoses and more personalized care.

AI can also help hospitals run more efficiently by analyzing workflows, predicting staffing needs and scheduling surgeries so that precious resources, such as operating rooms, are used most effectively. By streamlining tasks that take hours of human effort, AI can let health care professionals focus more on direct patient care.

But for all its power, AI can make mistakes. Although these systems are trained on data from real patients, they can struggle when encountering something unusual, or when data doesn’t perfectly match the patient in front of them.

As a result, AI doesn’t always give an accurate diagnosis. This problem is called algorithmic drift – when AI systems perform well in controlled settings but lose accuracy in real-world situations.

Racial and ethnic bias is another issue. If data includes bias because it doesn’t include enough patients of certain racial or ethnic groups, then AI might give inaccurate recommendations for them, leading to misdiagnoses. Some evidence suggests this has already happened.

Humans and AI are beginning to work together at this Florida hospital.

Data-sharing concerns, unrealistic expectations

Health care systems are labyrinthian in their complexity. The prospect of integrating artificial intelligence into existing workflows is daunting; introducing a new technology like AI disrupts daily routines. Staff will need extra training to use AI tools effectively. Many hospitals, clinics and doctor’s offices simply don’t have the time, personnel, money or will to implement AI.

Also, many cutting-edge AI systems operate as opaque “black boxes.” They churn out recommendations, but even its developers might struggle to fully explain how. This opacity clashes with the needs of medicine, where decisions demand justification.

But developers are often reluctant to disclose their proprietary algorithms or data sources, both to protect intellectual property and because the complexity can be hard to distill. The lack of transparency feeds skepticism among practitioners, which then slows regulatory approval and erodes trust in AI outputs. Many experts argue that transparency is not just an ethical nicety but a practical necessity for adoption in health care settings.

There are also privacy concerns; data sharing could threaten patient confidentiality. To train algorithms or make predictions, medical AI systems often require huge amounts of patient data. If not handled properly, AI could expose sensitive health information, whether through data breaches or unintended use of patient records.

For instance, a clinician using a cloud-based AI assistant to draft a note must ensure no unauthorized party can access that patient’s data. U.S. regulations such as the HIPAA law impose strict rules on health data sharing, which means AI developers need robust safeguards.

Privacy concerns also extend to patients’ trust: If people fear their medical data might be misused by an algorithm, they may be less forthcoming or even refuse AI-guided care.

The grand promise of AI is a formidable barrier in itself. Expectations are tremendous. AI is often portrayed as a magical solution that can diagnose any disease and revolutionize the health care industry overnight. Unrealistic assumptions like that often lead to disappointment. AI may not immediately deliver on its promises.

Finally, developing an AI system that works well involves a lot of trial and error. AI systems must go through rigorous testing to make certain they’re safe and effective. This takes years, and even after a system is approved, adjustments may be needed as it encounters new types of data and real-world situations.

AI could rapidly accelerate the discovery of new medications.

Incremental change

Today, hospitals are rapidly adopting AI scribes that listen during patient visits and automatically draft clinical notes, reducing paperwork and letting physicians spend more time with patients. Surveys show over 20% of physicians now use AI for writing progress notes or discharge summaries. AI is also becoming a quiet force in administrative work. Hospitals deploy AI chatbots to handle appointment scheduling, triage common patient questions and translate languages in real time.

Clinical uses of AI exist but are more limited. At some hospitals, AI is a second eye for radiologists looking for early signs of disease. But physicians are still reluctant to hand decisions over to machines; only about 12% of them currently rely on AI for diagnostic help.

Suffice to say that health care’s transition to AI will be incremental. Emerging technologies need time to mature, and the short-term needs of health care still outweigh long-term gains. In the meantime, AI’s potential to treat millions and save trillions awaits.

Turgay Ayer owns shares in Value Analytics Labs, a healthcare technology company. He received funding from government agencies, including NSF, NIH, and CDC.

– ref. AI in health care could save lives and money − but change won’t happen overnight – https://theconversation.com/ai-in-health-care-could-save-lives-and-money-but-change-wont-happen-overnight-241551