Category: Academic Analysis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nikki Ikani, Assistant Professor Intelligence & Security, Leiden University; King’s College London

There’s an unwritten rule in publishing, or so I’ve been told: don’t write about COVID. Our collective attention span has been saturated by those endless months holed up in attics and cramped corners of apartments, staring out at a world we could no longer take part in. When the worst of it passed, we felt an urge to close that chapter, to padlock it behind a heavy latch.

But in doing so, we also tuck away the hard-won lessons of that time: how quickly systems buckle, how two decades of coronavirus warnings accumulated without adequate preparedness, and how the very mechanisms we rely on for safety can become the scaffolding of a next disaster.

This matters now as another threat is taking shape: highly pathogenic avian influenza, known as bird flu.

Bird flu still poses a low‑probability threat of sustained human transmission. But that doesn’t make the virus harmless. The H5 viruses are brutally lethal to birds – 9 million have died outright, and hundreds of millions have been culled to contain the spread. Alarming is the virus’s expanding reach into mammals. So far, at least 74 mammal species, from elephant seals to polar bears, have suffered die‑offs.

The individual cases are situated within a broader shift. Dense poultry farms create opportunities for the virus to hop species. Over a thousand US dairy herds have tested positive in the past two years, and viral fragments have even been detected in milk – a worrying route of spillover. Every jump is a probe for new footholds.

Europe is seeing a surge too. From early September to mid-November 2025, 1,444 infected wild birds were found across 26 countries: a quadrupling compared with the year before.

Human cases remain rare: only 992 confirmed H5N1 infections worldwide since 2003, though with a near‑50% fatality rate. But the numbers are increasing.

The Americas have logged 75 cases since 2022, and in November, the US recorded its first H5N5 death in a patient with existing health problems. And although no human cases have been reported in Europe, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control warns that the widespread animal circulation raises the risk of spillover.

My research focuses on how warnings collapse before catastrophe, from geopolitical shocks to intelligence failures and industrial accidents. The pattern is often the same. Frontline observers spot something early, but the signal fades as it moves upward, diluted by bureaucracy, competing interpretations, or institutional forgetfulness.

The recent Hong Kong fire is yet another tragic example: residents at Wang Fuk Court had raised multiple alarms about the styrofoam boards that ignited with a lighter, the uncertified netting and the pattern of ignored safety notices long before the blaze, yet those concerns never gained traction.

The failures I study share recurring blind spots: weak signals drowned out by noise, bureaucratic habits that slow or soften uncomfortable messages, and the political instinct to downplay problems that threaten established narratives. When you see warning as a chain running from detection to decision, collapse is often partial. Some links hold. Others jam at the moment they are most needed.

Bird flu now sits inside that kind of chain. The technical ability to detect change is there: veterinarians, virologists and surveillance systems are picking up signals, sequencing viruses and logging outbreaks. But the infrastructure meant to catch the virus in its early stages is fraying. The agencies that once charted the terrain of emerging pandemic threats have been hollowed out – budgets trimmed, staff evaporated.

Surveillance falters

A study of 31 European nations warned that COVID exposed a “critical gap in preparedness” and urged standardised indicators and open data as the foundation for any future response. The EU’s freshly launched pre-pandemic plan is a good step, but it cannot mask the gaps in day-to-day monitoring and response that still leave countries exposed.

Across the Atlantic, cuts have left the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scrambling. American scientists warn that federal reporting has slowed: the United States Department of Agriculture shared too little genetic data on the outbreak in cattle and other affected animals, released it late, and in formats researchers could not use. It left scientists unable to track how the virus was evolving or spreading across herds.

In the UK, domestic surveillance capacity has equally faced strain, with reduced access to European disease intelligence and chronic vet shortages weakening early detection.

Once the signal dims within institutions, it dims for the public as well. And a weak warning rarely travels far.

A recent poll shows this clearly: most Americans don’t even register bird flu as a credible threat. What doesn’t help is that symptoms in humans can be so mild that they slide past notice. A case in a dairy worker earlier this year looked like nothing more than conjunctivitis.

None of this means a new pandemic is imminent. Health authorities still say the chance of an efficient human-to-human outbreak is low. These viruses rarely make that leap. And we’re not helpless. We’re better prepared than we were before COVID: we have vaccine candidates, clearer protocols and agencies that learned painful lessons.

But low isn’t none. And if it were to occur, the consequences could be catastrophic. Most people have some immunity to the seasonal flu strains. We probably have none to H5.

And influenza doesn’t restrict itself to the frail in the way COVID often did; past flu epidemics killed healthy adults in large numbers. Adding to the concern, health expertise itself has come under attack, weakening the very authority that should turn signals into action.

If we avert our eyes from the bird flu threat because our systems have grown inattentive, underfunded and unprepared, we risk repeating that same pattern. And the next alarm will arrive too late for anyone to claim they didn’t see it coming.

Nikki Ikani receives funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) for her WARN project (with project number VI.Veni.221R.093). She is also working on her first trade non-fiction book based on her warning research, set to publish with Penguin Random House in the UK and Hachette in the US.

– ref. Bird flu warnings are being ignored. I’ve seen this pattern before – https://theconversation.com/bird-flu-warnings-are-being-ignored-ive-seen-this-pattern-before-271765

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Charlotte Entwistle, Leverhulme Early Career Research Fellow in Psychology, University of Liverpool

Is it possible to spot personality dysfunction from someone’s everyday word use? My colleagues and I have conducted research that suggests you can, and often sooner than you might expect.

Whether in a quick text message, a long email, a casual chat with a friend, or a comment online, the words people choose quietly reveal deeper patterns in how they think, feel, and relate to others.

Everyone has personality traits – habitual ways of thinking, feeling and behaving. When these patterns become rigid, intense or disruptive, they can cause ongoing problems with emotions, sense of self and relationships.

At the more severe end are personality disorders, where these patterns create significant distress and impairment. Common personality disorders include narcissistic, antisocial, and borderline personality disorder.

But not everybody has a full-blown disorder. Personality functioning actually exists on a spectrum. We’re all a little narcissistic, after all.

Many people you meet – at work, when dating, or online – may show milder difficulties, such as mood fluctuations, negativity, rigid thinking or darker traits like manipulation and callousness. These patterns often slip into how people speak or write long before they show up in more explicit behaviour.

There are some extreme examples. Linguists analysing the personal letters of Austrian serial killer Jack Unterweger – widely viewed as a classic case of malignant narcissism – found unusually high levels of self-focused language, such as “I” and “me”. He also had a notably flat emotional tone. Likewise, letters from Dennis Rader, the BTK killer (bind, torture, kill) displayed strikingly grandiose, detached and dominance-focused wording.

Psychologists have long known that certain linguistic habits reveal how people are functioning internally. For example, people experiencing distress consistently use more self-focused language and more negative emotion words. That’s because they internalise a lot and experience negative affect.

Those with darker personality traits often use more hostile, negative and disconnected language, including more swear words and anger words, such as “hate” or “mad”. At the same time, they use fewer socially connected terms like “we”.

Vitally, these patterns aren’t usually deliberate. They emerge naturally because language tracks attention, emotion and thought. With computational text analysis, researchers can now analyse these subtle cues at scale, and rapidly.

Our research findings

Across four studies using computational text analysis – three of which formed my PhD research – my colleagues and I found clear evidence that personality dysfunction leaves a detectable trace in everyday communication.

In one study of 530 people, published in the Journal of Personality Disorders, we analysed written essays about peoples’ close relationships. We also collected data on their levels of personality dysfunction. Those with greater personality dysfunction used language that carried a sense of urgency and self-focus – “I need…”, “I have to…”, “I am…”.

This was expressed alongside ruminative, past-tense wording. They also had more negative, particularly angry, emotion terms, such as “furious” and “annoyed”. At the same time, they used noticeably less intimate or affiliative language such as “we”, “love” and “family”.

In a second project, published in Journal of Affective Disorders Reports, we again analysed written essays (530 people), as well as transcribed conversations from 64 romantic couples which included women with diagnosed personality disorders.

Across both written and spoken communication, those with more dysfunctional or disordered personalities used more negative emotion words – and a wider variety of them. Even during mundane conversations, their language carried heavier negative affect, indicating a preoccupation with negative feelings.

Turning to online communication, in a study recently published in npj Mental Health Research, we analysed nearly 67,000 Reddit posts from 992 people who self-identified as having a personality disorder. Those who frequently engaged in self-harm used language that was markedly more negative and constricted.

Their posts contained more self-focused language and more negations – such as “can’t”. They also used more sadness and anger terms, and more swearing, while referencing other people less. Their wording was also more absolutist, reflecting all-or-nothing thinking, favouring words like “always”, “never”, or “completely”.

Together, these features created a linguistic picture of emotional overwhelm, negativity, withdrawal and rigid thinking.

Finally, in an ongoing project analysing more than 830,000 posts from the same 992 individuals with personality disorder, plus 1.3 million posts from a general-population comparison group of 945 people, we examined how people express their self-beliefs (“I am …”, “I feel …”, “My …”). Using an advanced self-belief classification tool, we found that people with personality disorders shared self-beliefs on online discussion forums far more often, and their wording differed profoundly.

Their self-beliefs were more negative, extreme, and disorder-focused, including phrases like “my mental health”, “symptoms”, “diagnosis” and “medication”. They also used more emotional descriptors such as “depressive”, “suicidal” and “panic”. Many self-belief statements centred on pain and trauma – “abusive”, “abandonment”, “hurt”, “suffer”.

They also frequently referenced childhood or significant relationships (“mother”, “partner”, “relationship”). These patterns arose across a wide range of discussion contexts, suggesting that deeper struggles with identity may surface in language universally.

Why this matters

Understanding these linguistic patterns isn’t about diagnosing people from their texts. It is about noticing shifts in language that can provide gentle clues. If someone’s messages suddenly become unusually urgent or extreme, emotionally negative, absolutist, inward-focused and socially detached, it may be a sign they’re struggling.

And in everyday situations – dating, befriending, online interactions – recognising patterns of hostility, extreme negativity, and emotional and cognitive rigidity can help people spot early red flags. This is particularly for dark personality styles, such as psychopathy or narcissism. For instance, noticeably high use of self-references (“I”, “me”), anger words (“hate”, “angry”), and swear words, combined with a lack of terminology indicative of social connection (“we”, “us”, “our”), may be important language patterns to look out for.

But no single word or phrase reveals someone’s personality. People vent, joke, and use sarcasm. What really matters is the pattern over time; the emotional tone, themes and recurring linguistic habits. Subtle linguistic traces can offer a window into someone’s emotional world, identity, thinking patterns and relationships long before they speak openly about their difficulties.

Noticing these patterns can help us learn about and understand others, support those who may be struggling, and navigate our social lives safely – online and offline – with greater awareness.

Charlotte Entwistle has received funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and Leverhulme Trust.

– ref. People with personality disorders often use language differently – our research reveals how – https://theconversation.com/people-with-personality-disorders-often-use-language-differently-our-research-reveals-how-271109

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Clare Anderson, Professor of Sleep and Circadian Science, University of Birmingham

Christmas is supposed to be restful, yet somehow it ends up being one of the worst times of year for sleep. Between late nights, travel, one too many eggnogs and all that excitement, your sleep schedule doesn’t stand a chance – and neither does your mood, safety or health. Here are a dozen sneaky ways Christmas sabotages your sleep and what you can do about it.

1. The social jetlag of Christmas parties

Late nights and lie-ins might feel indulgent, but they’re secretly sabotaging your internal clock. Those late nights and bright lights throw your body clock out of sync, leaving you with disrupted sleep and making you slower to function and gloomier the next day. Irregular sleep timing is associated with many poor consequences for health and performance.

2. End-of-year exhaustion

Many adults routinely sleep less than the recommended seven hours. Nightly sleep loss of even one hour quickly takes a major toll. Sleeping less than six hours a night can cause dangerous levels of sleepiness after just two weeks, making end of year exhaustion real, and the Christmas break an ideal time to catch up on lost sleep.

3. Festive eating and sleepiness

Those big festive meals, rich in carbs and fat, can be sedatives on a plate. When we’re short on sleep, we’re more likely to crave sugary or fatty quick fixes for energy – only to crash about 90 minutes later, when sleepiness hits again.

4. Excited children, disrupted bedtimes

Christmas Eve excitement sends stress hormones soaring in kids (and let’s be honest, adults too), making it nearly impossible to drift off. Paradoxically, sleepy children often become hyper rather than drowsy – turning bedtime into a battle. When children stay up later, this results in parents staying up later. This doesn’t simply delay sleep, it also shortens it, reducing total sleep time by an average of 33 minutes for each hour that bedtime is delayed.

5. Shift work at Christmas

While others are celebrating, retail, healthcare and other essential workers are grinding through marathon shifts that wreak havoc on sleep. Shifts lasting longer than ten hours increase the risk of accident and injury by 13%, while those involving night work increase it by 28%. Put those together (long shifts overnight) and it’s a recipe for disaster. Sleeping during the day and being awake at night is already a challenge for many shift workers, but even more so at Christmas.

6. The hidden burden of Christmas travel

In all the Christmas excitement, it’s easy to forget how risky travel can be when you’re tired. Sleepiness contributes to around 17% of fatal vehicle accidents – and long journeys, international travel, reduced sleep and sleeping in unfamiliar environments all make things worse.

7. Christmas lights paradox

For those in the northern hemisphere, winter brings lower light levels during the day, yet bright Christmas displays light up the night sky – and our brain. Indoor lighting that is too dim during the day and too bright at night can disrupt circadian rhythms and sleep, making us feel more tired and less happy. While sleeping under Christmas lights may put you in the festive mood, it can disrupt your heart rate during sleep and affect your blood sugar in the morning.

8. Alcohol and the myth of the silent night

Yes, alcohol helps you nod off faster, but then it sabotages your sleep by messing with your brain chemistry and making breathing problems worse. You won’t even remember these disruptions (you need to be awake for several minutes to form a memory), but you’ll definitely remember the hangover.

9. Christmas napping

A Christmas Day nap can be a tradition for many families – especially grandpa. On average, people sleep about 5% more on Christmas Day. That extra 24 minutes of sleep over the holidays can help fight off common colds and other bugs. Christmas really is the time to indulge … in sleep.

10. More than an empty stocking

Money worries, heightened expectations and increased loneliness can all trigger Christmas anxiety. When you’re anxious, there’s a 90% increased risk that you’ll struggle to fall or stay asleep – and poor sleep makes anxiety worse. Protecting your sleep and helping others protect theirs can help prevent this vicious circle.

11. The pleasure and pain of New Year’s Eve

New Year’s Eve is the worst night of the year for sleep – most people go to bed 90 minutes later than usual, and it shows. More traffic accidents than usual happen on New Year’s Day, so if you’re exhausted, skip anything that requires alertness.

12. A gift to yourself

If on the twelfth day of Christmas your wish is for a good night’s sleep and staying safe and well, here are some top tips:

• Keep sleep and wake timing consistent where possible, and aim for at least seven hours of sleep.
• Naps are a perfect way to refresh and restore, but keep them short (20-30 minutes) and early (before 3pm).
• Moderate your alcohol and heavy food intake.
• Manage light exposure. Maximise natural daylight and avoid artifical light, including bright screens (phones, tablet computers, laptops) at night. Cosy, warm, dim Christmas lights are fine, but turn them off before bed.
• Support children’s sleep. Keep the bedtime routine consistent and manage excitement.
• Take special care when travelling. Think three S’s: Seven hours of sleep. Switch drivers or rest every two hours. Stop if you feel sleepy.

Clare Anderson currently receives funding from UK (ESRC, EPSRC) and Australian (ARC, NHMRC) Research Councils, Transport Accident Commission and Takeda Pharmaceutical.

– ref. ​The ​1​2 ways Christmas wrecks your sleep​ – and how to fix it – https://theconversation.com/the-1-2-ways-christmas-wrecks-your-sleep-and-how-to-fix-it-271362

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sara Fregonese, Associate Professor of political geography, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, University of Birmingham

The mass shooting during Hanukkah in Bondi Beach is a horrific reminder that contemporary terrorism can affect the places where we meet others, shop, celebrate and conduct our daily lives. However, our research suggests that what the UK public fears and assumes about terrorism threats is quite different from reality.

In 2022, we asked 5,000 people in the UK about their experiences and perceptions of terror threat and counter-terrorism measures.

Respondents told us the first word that came to mind when they heard the word terrorism. Most prominent in their responses are references to bombs and bombings. This isn’t surprising, given the global prominence of such terrorist tactics for some time. However, evidence shows that nearly “80% of UK domestic terrorist attacks since 2018 have been carried out with bladed or blunt force weapons”.

In recent years, a global shift in terror tactics has made explosive attacks less common. Less sophisticated means of attacks – such as arson and the use of bladed weapons and firearms – have become more appealing financially and logistically, especially among lone actors.

In western Europe, terrorism is increasingly perpetrated via “low-tech attacks against public spaces carried out with everyday items”. This includes attacks using vehicles as weapons, which has led to a recent increase in hostile vehicle protective infrastructure in cities.

The UK public isn’t neurotically expecting explosions and deadly attacks, however. Only 8% of our respondents saw terrorism as the most important problem facing the UK, ranked behind poverty, health, the environment, and unemployment / job security. It is also seen as more significant than racism / discrimination, delinquency, and road safety.

It is important that the public knows what the nature of that problem is, especially considering the National Terrorism Threat Level has remained either severe or substantial for the past several years meaning an attack is likely.

Diverse perceptions

We also asked respondents how they felt about the threat of terrorism compared with a few years previously. Similar numbers felt more concerned about terrorism threats than in previous years (39.83%), as those feeling less concerned (35.65%). However, when breaking data down by religious belonging, a more complex picture emerged.

We saw diametrically opposed feelings of concern among Christians and Jewish respondents on the one hand, and Muslims and Sikhs on the other. In 2022, 49.6% of Jewish respondents declared themselves more concerned about terrorism threats than a few years earlier. Importantly, this preceded the Manchester Synagogue attack in November 2025 and the Bondi Beach attack.

Similarly, 47.3% of Christian respondents felt more concerned about terrorist threats than in previous years. Just 27.9% of Muslim respondents and 29% of Sikh respondents said they felt more concerned about terrorism threats than a few years earlier.

Muslim (48.3%) and Sikh (44.7%) respondents largely felt less concerned about terrorism in 2022 compared to a few years earlier. A lower proportion of Jewish (22.4%) and Christian (33%) respondents felt less concerned about terrorism in 2022.

Changing concern about terror threat by religious belief (2022)

We need to better understand how these perceptions and differences in concerns have formed. They may be connected to societal polarisation, and with different approaches and reactions to counter-terrorism measures.

Responding to terrorism

These findings matter for how governments respond to, and prepare the public for, terror threats.

UK government counter-terrorism policy has recently come under scrutiny. A report by the independent commission for counter-terrorism law, published in November 2025, called for substantial changes to the current system. This included recommendations for a narrower definition of terrorism and an overhaul of the Prevent Duty, which requires public bodies to identify and report signs of radicalisation.

The government’s national security strategy has also been criticised by the UK Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation for not taking online terror threats seriously enough.

One of the ways that governments respond to terror threats is through information campaigns intended to alert and educate the public on the current nature of threat. And yet, our data shows that public awareness of such campaigns is worryingly low – 83.5% of respondents aren’t aware of them at all. That rate declines further for those aged 50 and over.

Those who said they are aware of counter-terrorism information campaigns largely failed to recall what these campaigns actually are. Their answers gave incomplete, wrong or conflated campaign names and slogans.

One might wonder if multiple campaigns – Run, Hide, Tell (2015-onwards); See it, Say it, Sorted (2016-onwards); Action Counters Terrorism (2017-onwards) – have actually produced confusion rather than clarity among the public over the nature of terror threat and what to watch out for. Equally, they may have become such a ubiquitous background in our cities, that people are now paying little attention.

It is essential to address these misalignments between public understanding of terrorism and the current evidence. The public needs clear, easy to remember, and updated information about current threats. Without this, people will struggle to recognise current threats and attune their instincts on how to react to them correctly.

And, while the messaging needs to be coherent, attention needs to be paid to the evident diversity of experiences and views about threat and security measures. Given our findings on how different demographic groups perceive terrorism, the recent call for equality impact assessments of counter-terrorism measures is a timely one indeed.

Sara Fregonese received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number ES/V01353X/1) which supported the research reported here

Paul Simpson received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number ES/V01353X/1) which supported the research reported here

– ref. Why public views of terrorism don’t match the evidence, and what the government needs to do to keep people safe – https://theconversation.com/why-public-views-of-terrorism-dont-match-the-evidence-and-what-the-government-needs-to-do-to-keep-people-safe-272101

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robyn Klingler-Vidra, Vice Dean, Global Engagement | Associate Professor in Political Economy and Entrepreneurship, King’s College London

Make American shipbuilding great again (Masga) may sound like an effort by the US to bolster its economic strength and project power internationally, but Masga is not an American policy. It is a South Korean initiative that emerged following trade talks with the US in June.

Rather than responding to the Trump administration’s tariff threats solely through trade negotiations, Korean officials saw an opportunity to show their American counterparts that South Korea deserved better treatment. They suggested that South Korea bring its shipbuilding prowess to the US.

South Korea is perhaps most famous as an exporter of K-pop, cars and semiconductors. But it is also a global powerhouse in shipbuilding. The shipyard in the south-eastern Korean city of Ulsan alone produces roughly ten times more ships annually than the entire US shipbuilding industry.

And as the US tries to counter China’s rapidly growing naval fleet, Korean assistance is something that is clearly needed. The US navy secretary, John Phelan, declared earlier in 2025 that US shipbuilding programmes “are a mess”. He added: “I think our best one is six months late and 57% over budget … That is the best one.”

Masga was launched in August, with South Korean conglomerates HD Hyundai and Samsung Heavy Industries signing a US$150 billion (£112 billion) deal to modernise US shipbuilding capabilities.

It is a clear example of a middle power, a term for countries that lack the dominance of great powers but matter because they possess distinctive industrial, resource or diplomatic capabilites, using economic statecraft to punch above its weight.

Economic statecraft has largely been used to describe actions taken by great powers like the US and China to enable and restrict access to their consumer markets, investment coffers and production capabilities. The aim is to achieve foreign policy goals or national security objectives by inflicting damage on or beating the capabilities of a rival power.

One classic example is the US government’s use of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine and Iran over its nuclear programme. The overt linking of economic tools like sanctions and tariffs to defence objectives in Washington’s recent national security strategy is another striking illustration of this.

Middle powers have traditionally not actively pursued economic statecraft to achieve their objectives. They have instead looked to secure a seat at key tables through cooperative participation in regional and multilateral forums. But some of these countries are now asserting their power more explicitly, through preemptive moves like Masga.

Using economic statecraft

Taiwan is perhaps the most obvious case of a middle power engaging in economic statecraft. The country has used its critical role in global semiconductor supply chains as leverage to protect itself against Chinese invasion. Former Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen referred to international reliance on the island’s chip industry as a “silicon shield” in 2021.

Taipei imposes strict controls on tech sales and screens investment, particularly from China, to protect its position. And Taiwan’s industry-leading firms, such as TSMC, also invest heavily to maintain their technological edge.

Vietnam offers another example. Consistent with its “bamboo diplomacy” foreign policy model, Hanoi hosts leaders from China, Russia and the US, seeking flexibility rather than rigid alignment. The aim is clear: to maximise Vietnam’s national interests pragmatically and with autonomy.

With the world’s sixth-largest reserves of rare earths, Vietnam is now looking to use critical minerals as a tool of economic statecraft. The government voted to ban rare-earth exports on December 11, citing the need to reorient the sector towards domestic processing and higher-value manufacturing rather than merely the export of basic raw materials.

Rare earths are essential components in numerous products that are central to our daily lives, including smartphones, semiconductors and electric vehicles. By restricting foreign access to these essential inputs, Vietnam is striving to secure its long-term position in the supply chains of highly in-demand resources.

Together, these cases show how economic statecraft is not only the preserve of great powers. Middle power states are selectively granting and restricting access to their economic strengths to reshape markets and security relationships. Korea’s shipbuilding, Taiwan’s chip production and Vietnam’s rare earths illustrate this more assertive approach.

They are no longer confined to reactive measures or behind-the-scenes diplomacy in regional forums or multilateral negotiations. These states are proposing economic and military partnerships, as seen in initiatives such as Masga and Tsai’s assertion that everyone needs to care about Taiwan, given how essential chips are to the world economy.

Great powers are taking notice. In October, HD Hyundai and US defence contractor Huntington Ingalls Industries announced they are together building next-generation navy vessels. This marks the first time a South Korean firm will build a US navy ship. And Washington has also reportedly been courting Hanoi with elevated diplomatic status and promises of mining support.

For other middle powers, the lesson is clear: identify and leverage the strategic economic strengths that other countries depend on.

Robyn Klingler-Vidra received a research grant from the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation between 2019-2023.

– ref. South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam show that economic statecraft is not just the preserve of great powers – https://theconversation.com/south-korea-taiwan-and-vietnam-show-that-economic-statecraft-is-not-just-the-preserve-of-great-powers-272139

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Meg Kobza, Leverhulme Early Career Fellow, Newcastle University

Would you dare to play Snapdragon and pluck a flaming raisin from a fiery bowl of brandy? Or don the costume of a comedic character on Twelfth Night? Jane Austen certainly would have – and did.

These games were two among many festive traditions that featured in the Georgian Christmas season and were part of Austen’s yuletide experience. Much like our own holiday season, it was a time filled with frivolity, fun, and friendly gatherings – as Mr Elton confirms in the pages of Emma (1816).

During a picturesque carriage ride through the snow, he shares his delight with Emma and Mr Knightley, proclaiming: “This is quite the season, indeed, for friendly meetings. At Christmas every body invites their friends about them, and people think little of even the worst weather.”

This sentiment holds as true now as it did when it appeared in print in 1815 and is echoed across Austen’s novels. In Pride and Prejudice (1813) both Mrs Bennet and Lizzy invite family to stay for the holidays – Mrs Bennet welcoming her brother and his family to Longbourn, Lizzy offering to host her aunt and uncle at Pemberly.

Whether the assembly at Randalls in Emma or Sir Thomas Bertram’s ball at Mansfield Park, social gatherings with friends and family were a central part of Georgian Christmas culture. In Persuasion (1817), Mary Musgrove’s disappointment over a “very dull Christmas” without a single dinner party during the whole of the holidays emphasises the expectation and significance of jolly entertainments to foster a festive spirit.

It is likely that Austen met one of her earliest romantic interests, the clever and handsome Tom Lefroy, at one such jovial holiday gathering in December of 1795. Lefroy, who was spending Christmas with family, continually crossed paths with Austen throughout the season.

In a letter to her sister Cassandra, Austen recalled: “I am almost afraid to tell you how my Irish friend and I behaved. Imagine to yourself everything most profligate and shocking in the way of dancing and sitting down together.” They certainly made merry – flirting, laughing, and gossiping their way through the season.

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This article is part of a series commemorating the 250th anniversary of Jane Austen’s birth. Despite having published only six books, she is one of the best-known authors in history. These articles explore the legacy and life of this incredible writer.

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While the sentiments of Austen’s Christmas scenes pervade our holidays even today, there are certain aspects of the Georgian holiday season that are more unfamiliar – most notably the length of the season itself.

Today, Christmas decorations pop up early, with pumpkins vying for space between mince pies and stockings long before November has even begun. In Austen’s time, the Christmas season sat firmly in December, beginning with St Nicholas Day on December 6 and concluding with a bang one month later on January 6, or, as the Georgians knew it, Twelfth Day.

Unlike our December 25, Austen’s Christmas Day was a more intimate and quiet affair, not yet characterised by elaborate feasting, large parties, or even Father Christmas. Instead, the day was spent attending church and with close family while Twelfth Night was given the spotlight of the season.

The days between Christmas and Twelfth Day – known as the 12 days of Christmas – were therefore filled with preparation and anticipation.

Twelfth Night was an evening of mischief, masquerade and merriment. With a history dating back to the Romans, Twelfth Night was rooted in ideas of topsy-turvy – where anyone could be anything and everyone’s fate was determined by the slice of a cake.

Shared among family, friends and servants, the Twelfth Night cake, whether extravagant or practical, contained a dried bean and a dried pea. Whoever happened upon the slice with the dried bean became king for the evening, and the dried pea the queen. They would reign for the night, with their subjects left to do their bidding.

Once the king and queen were crowned, revelry and games ensued. Austen’s niece, Fanny Knight, often wrote of family Twelfth Night celebrations, recalling “we were all agreeably surprised with a sort of masquerade, on being dressed into character”. There were costumes for a Harlequin, flower girl, clown, cupid, musician and many others.

Austen herself enjoyed the spirited play of Twelfth Night, donning the character of “Miss Candour” one year and spending the whole evening “taking people aside to comment on their dress or making outrageous comments in loud whispers for all to hear!” Then came the games – including Snapdragon, apple-bobbing, and a messy round of Bullet Pudding which also appeared in the 2020 screen adaptation of Emma. Snapdragon challenged players to snatch almonds or raisins from flaming bowl of brandy while bullet pudding involved using your nose to poke through a mound of flour in order to find a hidden bullet – this often resulted in laughter and flour-powdered faces.

Twelfth Day carried the merriment of the night before into daylight hours and was treated as a bank holiday. As January 7 dawned, however, households hurried to take down their decorations, stripping festive greenery from banisters, doorways, mantles and tables. The once resplendent wreaths and garlands were promptly gathered and set alight to ward off bad luck in the new year.

Though Twelfth Night eventually went out of fashion, it seems that the Georgians and Austen herself found pleasure in mixing revelry with reverence and enjoyed the festive season to its fullest.

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This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

Meg Kobza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Jane Austen celebrated Christmas with dancing, dinner parties and dangerous games – https://theconversation.com/jane-austen-celebrated-christmas-with-dancing-dinner-parties-and-dangerous-games-272123

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kiera Vaclavik, Professor of Children’s Literature & Childhood Culture, Queen Mary University of London

Christmas can be a bit of a performance. It often involves harassed people doing a lot. But for many of us, alongside all the stressful preparations, it will include some kind of theatre visit, whether a panto, musical or ballet, such as The Nutcracker.

These days a way to escape the tyranny of digital screens, family trips to the theatre were already a tradition by the end of the 19th century. Children’s books of “the Golden Age” – from Lewis Carroll’s Alice books to JM Barrie’s Peter Pan and Kenneth Grahame’s The Wind in the Willows – offered fertile ground for stage adaptation and family audiences came flocking.

Today there is enormous choice, and the range on offer is heartening. In London, Jacksons Lane Arts Centre’s festive production Christmas Comes to Moominvalley – returning for the second year and perhaps becoming a tradition of its own – is a charming option for families looking for some Christmas magic and family time together.

The production is based on a supremely well-crafted short story called The Fir Tree by Tove Jansson, whose first Moomin book was published 80 years ago. It follows the Moomin family’s preparations for Christmas. So far, so standard. The interesting twist comes from the fact that Moomins, who usually hibernate through the winter, have no idea of what Christmas actually is.

Accustomed to things like floods, comets and volcanoes, they naturally assume it is a calamity, a dangerous force of nature to be placated. The family do their best to follow protocol and manage to improvise the requisite tree, food and presents.

Like Noel Streatfeild, whose Ballet Shoes (1936) is also being staged for the second time this year at the National Theatre in London, Jansson knows just how much of an undertaking Christmas is and the sense of unpreparedness she conveys throughout is highly relatable:

“I’ve made absolutely no arrangements yet myself,” complains the Hemulen, “and here they send me off to dig you out … Everybody’s running about like mad and nothing’s ready.” Having put in the hard work, the Moomins not only share their Christmas, but hand it over wholesale to other (more knowing, but less well-furnished) creatures.

It’s a story which manages to be positive and heartwarming, championing kindness and generosity (regarded by many as the true values of Christmas), without being in any way schmaltzy or saccharine. It’s a not inconsiderable feat, and something of minor Christmas miracle.

Retaining Jansson’s essence

Jacksons Lane has, then, hit Christmas gold with its source material, especially given the near-cult following of the much-loved Moomins who have been everywhere in this anniversary year. Their first appearance, a few scenes into the show, is a bit of a “Totoro” moment – the audience is primed to love them and palpably delighted when they finally appear.

A strong base is no guarantee for success though, and there are plenty of adaptations of children’s books that have entirely missed the mark (such as Broadway Entertainment Group’s shocking version of The Little Prince in 2022). Happily, this production isn’t one of them.

It’s a well-balanced show in every sense. Christmas Comes to Moominvalley makes the most of the acrobatics and circus skills that Jacksons Lane (itself celebrating its 50th anniversary this year) has nurtured so effectively.

It contrasts the charming but slightly ponderous, plodding Moomin family in their big white suits with a group of zippy, colourfully costumed characters who juggle, lift and tumble. There is also a good balance of pace – dynamic, fast-action scenes are interspersed with quieter, slower moments with harp and song, showcasing the strong clear voice of actress Xenia Garden.

Given this overall sensitivity, it’s a shame that the very poignant and evocative moment when the Moomins gift their entire Christmas tree, presents and food to the less fortunate is slightly rushed. Rather than an act of generosity and selflessness it verges on becoming a hurried offloading motivated by fear.

The show certainly doesn’t forget its written roots though. Much of the text is projected onto the stage backdrop, perhaps as a way around the slightly muffled delivery caused by cumbersome Moomin heads. It’s unclear otherwise quite what the purpose of the words is or who they’re for (certainly not younger children learning to read). But they do mean that Jansson’s presence is there throughout.

The show ultimately succeeds in delivering a memorable show with the wow factor that you want from a Christmas production. The lifts and tumbles – not to mention the literal plate spinning which harried adults will particularly relish and relate to – showcase the physical skills of the performers and are well integrated into the storytelling. The gradual decoration of the tree builds in the second half to deliver a near-perfect image of Christmas magic complete with lights, candles, stars, snow (and sea shells).

A children’s play that asks what Christmas is may seem a bit cerebral and too much like hard work, but Christmas Comes to Moominvalley isn’t this at all. It’s both metaphorically and literally uplifting. It inspires through acts of dazzling physical dexterity while also directing the audience to the words and images of the endlessly talented Tove Jansson.

Christmas Comes To Moominvalley is on at Jacksons Lane Arts Centre, London until Jan 4

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Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

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Kiera Vaclavik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Christmas Comes to Moominvalley: a magical show that honours Tove Jansson and her creations – https://theconversation.com/christmas-comes-to-moominvalley-a-magical-show-that-honours-tove-jansson-and-her-creations-272212

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Primrose Freestone, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Microbiology, University of Leicester

Food poisoning affects millions of people in the UK every year, and the risk rises during the Christmas period. Large family meals, raw poultry, packed fridges and buffet food all increase the chances of contamination.

In the UK, the most common bacterial causes of food poisoning are campylobacter and salmonella, both of which are frequently found on raw poultry.

While most cases of food poisoning are mild and clear up on their own, they can be serious for vulnerable groups. These include very young children, older adults, pregnant people and those with weakened immune systems.

Symptoms can include nausea, vomiting, fever, diarrhoea and a general feeling of being unwell.

Although there are no UK statistics published specifically for food poisoning at Christmas, the UK experiences more than 2.4 million cases of food poisoning every year. Public health agencies consistently see a seasonal rise in cases over the festive period, thought to be linked to the widespread preparation of poultry such as turkey.

So what is it about Christmas that makes it such a risky time of year? Here’s a closer look at the festive food habits that raise the risk of food poisoning, and how to avoid them.

Not checking use-by dates

Checking use-by dates is especially important at Christmas, when fridges are often full and food has been bought well in advance. Foods labelled “use by” are highly perishable and must be stored correctly in the fridge and eaten within the stated time to prevent bacterial growth.

Even if food is still within date, it should not be eaten if the packaging looks swollen or if the food smells or looks unusual when opened. These are signs of possible bacterial or fungal contamination, and it is safer to throw the food away.

Under-thawing frozen poultry or washing it

Large frozen birds such as turkeys can take several days to thaw fully in the fridge. Cooking poultry that is not completely defrosted can result in uneven cooking, allowing bacteria to survive in the centre of the meat.

Washing raw poultry before cooking is unnecessary and increases the risk of food poisoning. Poultry sold by supermarkets and butchers is already cleaned. Washing it can splash bacteria such as campylobacter and salmonella onto sinks, work surfaces, hands, clothes and nearby foods, leading to cross-contamination.

Undercooking your Christmas dinner

Poultry can contain bacteria throughout the meat, not just on the surface, so the entire bird must be thoroughly cooked to make it safe to eat.

Always follow the cooking instructions on the packaging. These timings are usually based on an unstuffed bird. Poultry cooked with stuffing inside the cavity often takes longer, and heat may not reach the centre properly, allowing bacteria to survive.

The only way to make poultry safe is by cooking it thoroughly. Using a food thermometer can help. Poultry is safe to eat when the thickest part reaches at least 75°C, a temperature that effectively kills food poisoning bacteria.

For this reason, it is much safer to cook stuffing in a separate dish rather than inside the bird.

Hand washing and kitchen hygiene

Good hygiene is essential when preparing raw meat, poultry, fish or vegetables.

After handling raw foods, wash your hands thoroughly with soap and water. Clean and disinfect chopping boards, knives, and work surfaces to prevent cross-contamination.

Do not prepare food for others if you have vomiting or diarrhoea, particularly if caused by highly contagious viruses such as norovirus or rotavirus.

Incorrect storage of Christmas leftovers

Food poisoning bacteria are present everywhere, including kitchens and fresh foods. Refrigeration slows their growth, but only if the fridge temperature stays between 0 and 5°C.

At Christmas, fridges are often overloaded, which can raise internal temperatures and allow bacteria to multiply. Avoid storing items that do not need refrigeration in the fridge.

Leftovers should be cooled, covered, and refrigerated within two hours. At room temperature, some bacteria can double in number every 20 minutes. Leftovers should be eaten within two days.

If you cannot eat leftovers within this time, freeze them. When stored at -18°C, they can be kept safely for up to three months.

Christmas dining out and party buffets

Around 60% of food poisoning cases in the UK are linked to food eaten outside the home.

Even in restaurants with high hygiene ratings, food can still be exposed to contamination from people, insects or the environment.

Buffets carry particular risks because perishable foods may be left out too long.

Food should not be left out for more than two hours unless refrigerated or, in the case of hot food, kept above 60°C. If you take buffet leftovers home, refrigerate them promptly and reheat until piping hot before eating.

Following these food safety tips can help reduce your risk of food poisoning this Christmas. In addition to food-related hazards, St John Ambulance has highlighted a range of other festive accidents to watch out for.

I hope your holiday is happy, healthy, and safe.

Merry Christmas.

Primrose Freestone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Christmas food poisoning and how to avoid it – by a microbiologist – https://theconversation.com/christmas-food-poisoning-and-how-to-avoid-it-by-a-microbiologist-271418