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July 12, 2025

Tour de France 2025 : quand des réserves naturelles émergent sur des sites pollués

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Patrick de Wever, Professeur, géologie, micropaléontologie, Muséum national d’histoire naturelle (MNHN)

La mare à Goriaux, née d’un affaissement minier. Wikimedia commons, CC BY-NC-SA

Au-delà du sport, le Tour de France donne aussi l’occasion de (re)découvrir nos paysages et parfois leurs bizarreries géologiques. Le XXI^e siècle est marqué par un regain de sensibilité à la nature, qui a poussé à la protection de certains sites, sélectionnés parmi de nombreuses possibilités. Mais paradoxalement, certaines aires sont protégées alors qu’elles semblent polluées… par un phénomène naturel ?

Le naturaliste respecte tout ce qui vient de la nature. De cette dernière il exclut généralement l’humain et ses œuvres, tant elles portent atteinte à un équilibre sain. En témoignent les nombreuses traces laissées par le passé industriel de notre pays : certaines sont visibles (bâtiments en ruines…), quand d’autres, plus insidieuses, sont chimiques (sols pollués).

Et pourtant, en France, certaines pollutions et désordres industriels sont aujourd’hui classés… comme des réserves naturelles.

La troisième étape du Tour de France 2025, le 7 juillet dernier, a permis de l’illustrer avec deux exemples : les pelouses métallicoles de Mortagne-du-Nord et la « Mare à Goriaux », deux réserves biologiques du Parc Naturel régional Scarpe-Escaut traversées par la route dans la forêt de Saint-Amand, à une dizaine de kilomètres de son départ. Nous évoquerons aussi un troisième cas dans le Massif central, que les cyclistes parcourront lors de la 10^e étape, le lundi 14 juillet 2025.

Pelouses métallicoles et plantes hyperaccumulatrices

Éliminer les cicatrices que l’humain a laissées en maltraitant la Terre n’est pas chose aisée et les approches sont aussi variées que les causes sont différentes. Les blessures visuelles se résorbent quand les moyens financiers sont mobilisés. La pollution chimique en revanche requiert, outre des subsides, un bien non achetable : du temps.

Magie de la nature, certaines plantes dites hyperaccumulatrices ont la propriété de prospérer sur des sols qui empoisonneraient la plupart des autres. Elles ne sont pas rares : on en connaît près de 400 espèces. La plupart bioaccumulent un ou deux métaux, mais certaines prélèvent un plus large éventail, en pourcentage variable selon le polluant.

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Ces capacités d’extraction par des plantes qui absorbent et concentrent dans leurs parties récoltables (feuilles, tiges) les polluants contenus dans le sol sont utilisées pour la dépollution : on parle de phytoremédiation. Le plus souvent, les végétaux sont récoltés et incinérés : les cendres sont stockées ou valorisées pour récupérer les métaux accumulés.

Mortagne du Nord, commune qui appartient au Parc naturel régional Scarpe-Escaut, en offre un exemple édifiant. Une usine y traitait du zinc, du cadmium, du plomb et quelques terres rares.

Mortagne-du-Nord, une pelouse métallicole décontaminante environne le collège, 2005.
Patrick De Wever, Fourni par l’auteur

Désormais, en lieu et place de l’amoncellement de déchets qui y étaient entreposés, prospèrent de jolis prés. Des pelouses dites « métalicolles » ou « calaminaires » qui entourent un collège en pleine nature.

Une réserve biologique fruit d’un effondrement minier

Le nord de la France est connu pour son absence de relief, comme la plaine de Flandre, vers Dunkerque, ou la région marécageuse de Saint-Amand-les-Eaux. Cette horizontalité est démentie par une dépression, notamment visible sur certaines routes.

Ainsi, à proximité de la terrible « trouée de Wallers-Arenberg », passage célèbre du Paris-Roubaix, une route montre une dépression très nette qui semble évoquer le passage d’une rivière. Or il n’y a pas de rivière. Quelle peut en être l’explication ?

La dépression de la route D313 ne correspond pas à un vallon naturel mais à un effondrement minier du Boulevard des mineurs d’Aremberg.
Patrick de Wever, Fourni par l’auteur

La dépression de la route ci-dessus permet de quantifier l’effondrement topographique. On notera, sur la partie droite de la photo, que la ligne de chemin de fer est restée horizontale car un remblai régulier était effectué. C’est d’ailleurs ce remblai, pris annuellement en charge par les houillères, qui a permis de les rendre responsables de cet effondrement. La gauche de la route, derrière les arbres, est bordée par le terril qui délimite la Mare à Goriaux (gorets en picard), une zone naturelle protégée installée sur un terril plat.

Les bois de la gauche de la route sont ceux de la « Mare à Goriaux », une réserve naturelle créée suite à un affaissement minier en 1916. En effet, il existait là un ancien terril horizontal – avant de prendre leur forme conique avec la mécanisation des apports, les terrils étaient horizontaux car alimentés par des wagonnets poussés par des hommes ou tirés par des chevaux. L’affaissement a formé trois mares, qui ont fini par se réunir en 1930 en un seul plan d’eau, la Mare à Goriaux.

La colonisation des lieux par la flore et la faune, riche et diversifiée, a conduit à décréter ce lieu réserve biologique domaniale de Raismes-St Amand-Wallers en 1982.

Une source de pétrole au cœur de l’Auvergne

La nature rejette du pétrole depuis toujours : on en connaît dans les Caraïbes tant au fond de la mer, où il suinte et est constamment digéré par des bactéries spécialisées, qu’à terre. Il était déjà utilisé par les Amérindiens Olmèques 12 siècles avant notre ère, afin d’imperméabiliser les toitures, étanchéifier les navires, les canalisations, les récipients ou décorer des masques. Dans l’Antiquité Classique, il a servi à étanchéifier les jardins suspendus de Babylone, à enduire l’arche de Noé ou à conserver les momies.

Si le bitume affleurait en surface dans toutes les régions aujourd’hui connues comme étant pétrolifères, de l’Arabie saoudite à l’Iran (alors la Perse) en passant par l’Irak (alors la Mésopotamie), en France, le pétrole est plus rare. Il existe néanmoins un endroit où il coule en surface.

Près de Clermont-Ferrand, à proximité de l’aéroport de Clermont-Aulnat se trouve une rivière de pétrole. L’eau, très riche en organismes (bactéries, algues…), présente une couleur d’un vert très particulier.
Patrick de Wever, Fourni par l’auteur

À l’est de Clermont-Ferrand, que traversera le peloton lors de la 10^e étape, est visible entre l’autoroute et l’aéroport la « Source de la Poix », un lieu géré par le Conservatoire des espaces naturels. Le bitume qui s’y écoule librement est associé à de l’eau salée, du méthane et des traces d’hydrogène sulfuré, dont l’odeur parfois forte peut évoquer celle d’œufs pourris. Le mélange, qui circule sur une quinzaine de mètres avec un débit extrêmement faible (de l’ordre d’un hectolitre/an), surgit par des fractures dans la roche volcanique, ce qui explique qu’il n’est plus exploité. Dans le passé, il fut utilisé pour calfater (c’est-à-dire, étanchéifier) les embarcations de l’Allier.

Panneau de la source de la poix. Ce site, unique en France, n’est cependant pas protégé aux yeux de la loi. Il est demandé de le « préserver ensemble » (haut du panneau), mais (est-ce parce qu’il s’agit de pétrole ?), en bas… on pense à le partager !
Patrick de Wever, Fourni par l’auteur

Cet hydrocarbure vient des sédiments de Limagne qui se sont déposés dans un grand lac peu profond qui permettait une vie abondante, il y a une trentaine de millions d’années (Oligocène). Celle-ci a évolué avec le temps pour devenir le bitume que l’on trouve aujourd’hui – il ne s’agit pas vraiment de pétrole car il a subi une légère oxydation. N’ayant pas été piégé par une couche ou une structure imperméable, le liquide remonte lentement en surface.

Les suintements de bitumes sont nombreux en Limagne : outre au Puy de la Poix, on en connaît au Puy de Crouël, à la carrière de Gandaillat et à Dallet, à quelques kilomètres, où une mine a été exploitée jusqu’en 1984.

Cette source de bitume a été plus ou moins aménagée au cours des siècles, mais depuis, le site est presque tombé dans l’oubli. Il présente pourtant un joli potentiel pédagogique, d’un point de vue géologique, biologique, environnemental et sociétal.

Patrick de Wever ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Tour de France 2025 : quand des réserves naturelles émergent sur des sites pollués – https://theconversation.com/tour-de-france-2025-quand-des-reserves-naturelles-emergent-sur-des-sites-pollues-258130

July 12, 2025

A wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Ben Livneh, Associate Professor of Hydrology, University of Colorado Boulder

Burned ground can become hydrophobic and almost waxlike, allowing rainfall to quickly wash contaminants downslope. Carli Brucker

A wildfire rages across a forested mountainside. The smoke billows and the flames rise. An aircraft drops vibrant red flame retardant. It’s a dramatic, often dangerous scene. But the threat is only just beginning for downstream communtiies and the water they rely on.

After the smoke clears, the soil, which was once nestled beneath a canopy of trees and a spongy layer of leaves, is now exposed. Often, that soil is charred and sterile, with the heat making the ground almost water-repellent, like a freshly waxed car.

When the first rain arrives, the water rushes downhill. It carries with it a slurry of ash, soil and contaminants from the burned landscape. This torrent flows directly into streams and then rivers that provide drinking water for communities downstream.

As a new research paper my colleagues and I just published shows, this isn’t a short-term problem. The ghost of the fire can haunt these waterways for years.

Scientists explain how wildfires can contaminate water supplies and the ways they measure the effects, summarized in their 2024 publication. University of Colorado-Boulder.

This matters because forested watersheds are the primary water source for nearly two-thirds of municipalities in the United States. As wildfires in the western U.S. become larger and more frequent, the long-term security and safety of water supplies for downstream communities is increasingly at risk.

Charting the long tail of wildfire pollution

Scientists have long known that wildfires can affect water quality, but two key questions remained: Exactly how bad is the impact? And how long does it last?

To find out, my colleagues and I led a study, coordinated by engineer Carli Brucker. We undertook one of the most extensive analyses of post-wildfire water quality to date. The results were published June 23, 2025, in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

We gathered decades of water quality data from 245 burned watersheds across the western U.S. and compared them to nearly 300 similar, unburned watersheds.

A map of watersheds in the western U.S. — A map of the basins studied shows the outlines of fires in red and burned basins in black. The blue basins did not burn and were used for comparisons.
Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

By creating a computer model for each basin that accounted for its normal water quality variability, based on factors such as rainfall and temperature, we were able to isolate the impact of the wildfire. This allowed us to see how much the water quality deviated after the fire, year after year.

The results were stark. In the first year after a fire, the concentrations of some contaminants skyrocketed. We found that levels of sediment and turbidity – the cloudiness of the water – were 19 to 286 times higher than prefire levels. That much sediment can clog filters at water treatment plants and require expensive treatment and maintenance. Think of trying to use a coffee filter with muddy water – the water just won’t flow through.

Concentrations of organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus were three to 103 times greater in the burned basins. These dissolved remnants of burned plants and soil are particularly problematic. When they mix with the chlorine used to disinfect drinking water, they can form harmful chemicals called disinfection byproducts, some of which are linked to cancer.

More surprisingly, we found the impacts to be really persistent. While the most dramatic spikes in phosphorous, nitrate, organic carbon and sediment generally occurred in the first one to three years, some contaminants lingered for much longer.

Charts show how contaminants lingered in water supplies for years after wildfires. — Contaminants including phosphorus, organic carbon and nitrates lingered in water supplies for years after wildfires. The charts show the average among all burned basins eight years before fires (light blue) and all burned basins after fires (orange). The gray bars show levels in the year immediately after the fire. The horizontal purple line shows levels that would be expected without a fire, based on the prefire years.
Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

We saw significantly elevated levels of nitrogen and sediment for up to eight years following a fire. Nitrogen and phosphorus act like fertilizer for algae. A surge of these nutrients can trigger algal blooms in reservoirs, which can produce toxins and create foul odors.

This extended timeline suggests that wildfires are fundamentally altering the landscape in ways that take a long time to heal. In our previous laboratory-based research, including a 2024 study, we simulated this process by burning soil and vegetation and then running water over them.

A blackened mountain slope where all of the trees have burned. — After mountain slopes burn, the rain that falls on them washes ash, charred soil and debris downstream.
Carli Brucker

The stuff that leaches out is a cocktail of carbon, nutrients and other compounds that can exacerbate flood risks and degrade water quality in ways that require more expensive treatment at water treatment facilities. In extreme cases, the water quality may be so poor that communities can’t withdraw river water at all, and that can create water shortages.

After the Buffalo Creek Fire in 1996 and then the Hayman Fire in 2002, Denver’s water utility spent more than US$27 million over several years to treat the water, remove more than 1 million cubic yards of sediment and debris from a reservoir, and fix infrastructure. State Forest Service crews planted thousands of trees to help restore the surrounding forest’s water filtering capabilities.

A growing challenge for water treatment

This long-lasting impact poses a major challenge for water treatment plants that make river water safe to drink. Our study highlights that utilities can’t just plan for a few bad months after a fire. They need to be prepared for potentially eight or more years of degraded water quality.

We also found that where a fire burns matters. Watersheds with thicker forests or more urban areas that burned tended to have even worse water quality after a fire.

Since many municipalities draw water from more than one source, understanding which watersheds are likely to have the largest water quality problems after fires can help communities locate the most vulnerable parts of their water supply systems.

As temperatures rise and more people move into wildland areas in the American West, the risk of wildfires increases, and it is becoming clear that preparing for longer-term consequences is crucial. The health of forests and our communities’ drinking water are inseparably linked, with wildfires casting a shadow that lasts long after the smoke clears.

Ben Livneh receives funding from the Western Water Assessment NOAA grant #NA21OAR4310309, ‘Western Water Assessment: Building Resilience to Compound Hazards in the Inter-Mountain West’.

– ref. A wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk – https://theconversation.com/a-wildfires-legacy-can-haunt-rivers-for-years-putting-drinking-water-at-risk-259118

July 12, 2025

FEMA’s flood maps often miss dangerous flash flood risks, leaving homeowners unprepared

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Jeremy Porter, Professor of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, City University of New York

A deadly flash flood on July 4, 2025, swept through Nancy Callery’s childhood home in Hunt, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Destructive flash flooding in Texas and other states is raising questions about the nation’s flood maps and their ability to ensure that communities and homeowners can prepare for rising risks.

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood maps are intended to be the nation’s primary tool for identifying flood risks.

Originally developed in the 1970s to support the National Flood Insurance Program, these maps, known as Flood Insurance Rate Maps, or FIRMs, are used to determine where flood insurance is required for federally backed mortgages, to inform local building codes and land-use decisions, and to guide flood plain management strategies.

A flood risk map. — A federal flood map of Kerrville, Texas, with the Guadalupe River winding through the middle in purple, shows areas considered to have a 1% annual chance of flooding in blue and a 0.2% annual chance of flooding in tan. During a flash flood on July 4, 2025, the river rose more than 30 feet at Kerrville.
FEMA

In theory, the maps enable homeowners, businesses and local officials to understand their flood risk and take appropriate steps to prepare and mitigate potential losses.

But while FEMA has improved the accuracy and accessibility of the maps over time with better data, digital tools and community input, the maps still don’t capture everything – including the changing climate. There are areas of the country that flood, some regularly, that don’t show up on the maps as at risk.

I study flood-risk mapping as a university-based researcher and at First Street, an organization created to quantify and communicate climate risk. In a 2023 assessment using newly modeled flood zones with climate-adjusted precipitation records, we found that more than twice as many properties across the country were at risk of a 100-year flood than the FEMA maps identified.

Even in places where the FEMA maps identified a flood risk, we found that the federal mapping process, its overreliance on historical data, and political influence over the updating of maps can lead to maps that don’t fully represent an area’s risk.

What FEMA flood maps miss

FEMA’s maps are essential tools for identifying flood risks, but they have significant gaps that limit their effectiveness.

One major limitation is that they don’t consider flooding driven by intense bursts of rain. The maps primarily focus on river channels and coastal flooding, largely excluding the risk of flash flooding, particularly along smaller waterways such as streams, creeks and tributaries.

This limitation has become more important in recent years due to climate change. Rising global temperatures can result in more frequent extreme downpours, leaving more areas vulnerable to flooding, yet unmapped by FEMA.

A map overlay shows how two 100-year flood maps compare. First Street shows many more streams. — A map of a section of Kerr County, Texas, where a deadly flood struck on July 4, 2025, compares the FEMA flood map’s 100-year flood zone (red) to First Street’s more detailed 100-year flood zone (blue). The more detailed map includes flash flood risks along smaller creeks and streams.
Jeremy Porter

For example, when flooding from Hurricane Helene hit unmapped areas around Asheville, North Carolina, in 2024, it caused a huge amount of uninsured damage to properties.

Even in areas that are mapped, like the Camp Mystic site in Kerr County, Texas, that was hit by a deadly flash flood on July 4, 2025, the maps may underestimate their risk because of a reliance on historic data and outdated risk assessments.

Political influence can fuel long delays

Additionally, FEMA’s mapping process is often shaped by political pressures.

Local governments and developers sometimes fight to avoid high-risk designations to avoid insurance mandates or restrictions on development, leading to maps that may understate actual risks and leave residents unaware of their true exposure.

An example is New York City’s appeal of a 2015 FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps update. The delay in resolving the city’s concerns has left it with maps that are roughly 20 years old, and the current mapping project is tied up in legal red tape.

On average, it takes five to seven years to develop and implement a new FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. As a result, many maps across the U.S. are significantly out of date, often failing to reflect current land use, urban development or evolving flood risks from extreme weather.

This delay directly affects building codes and infrastructure planning, as local governments rely on these maps to guide construction standards, development approvals and flood mitigation projects. Ultimately, outdated maps can lead to underestimating flood risks and allowing vulnerable structures to be built in areas that face growing flood threats.

How technology advances can help

New advances in satellite imaging, rainfall modeling and high-resolution lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, make it possible to create faster, more accurate flood maps that capture risks from extreme rainfall and flash flooding.

However, fully integrating these tools requires significant federal investment. Congress controls FEMA’s mapping budget and sets the legal framework for how maps are created. For years, updating the flood maps has been an unpopular topic among many publicly elected officials, because new flood designations can trigger stricter building codes, higher insurance costs and development restrictions.

A map of Houston showing flooding extending much farther inland. — A map of Houston, produced for a 2022 study by researchers at universities and First Street, shows flood risk changing over the next 30 years as climate change worsens. Blue areas are today’s 100-year flood-risk zones. The red areas reflect the same zones in 2050.
Oliver Wing et al., 2022

In recent years, the rise of climate risk analytics models and private flood risk data have allowed the real estate, finance and insurance industries to rely less on FEMA’s maps. These new models incorporate forward-looking climate data, including projections of extreme rainfall, sea-level rise and changing storm patterns – factors FEMA’s maps generally exclude.

Real estate portals like Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com and Homes.com now provide property-level flood risk scores that consider both historical flooding and future climate projections. The models they use identify risks for many properties that FEMA maps don’t, highlighting hidden vulnerabilities in communities across the United States.

Research shows that the availability, and accessibility, of climate data on these sites has started driving property-buying decisions that increasingly take climate change into account.

Implications for the future

As homebuyers understand more about a property’s flood risks, that may shift the desirability of some locations over time. Those shifts will have implications for property valuations, community tax-revenue assessments, population migration patterns and a slew of other considerations.

However, while these may feel like changes being brought on by new data, the risk was already there. What is changing is people’s awareness.

The federal government has an important role to play in ensuring that accurate risk assessments are available to communities and Americans everywhere. As better tools and models evolve for assessing risk evolve, FEMA’s risk maps need to evolve, too.

Jeremy Porter has nothing to disclose.

– ref. FEMA’s flood maps often miss dangerous flash flood risks, leaving homeowners unprepared – https://theconversation.com/femas-flood-maps-often-miss-dangerous-flash-flood-risks-leaving-homeowners-unprepared-260990

July 11, 2025

How citizenship chaos was averted, for now, by a class action injunction against Trump’s birthright citizenship order

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Julie Novkov, Professor of Political Science and Women’s, Gender and Sexuality Studies, University at Albany, State University of New York

Protesters support birthright citizenship on May 15, 2025, outside of the Supreme Court in Washington. AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Legal battles over President Donald Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship continued on July 10, 2025, after a New Hampshire federal district judge issued a preliminary injunction that will, if it’s not reversed, prevent federal officials from enforcing the order nationally.

The ruling by U.S. District Judge Joseph Laplante, a George W. Bush appointee, asserts that this policy of “highly questionable constitutionality … constitutes irreparable harm.”

In its ruling in late June, the Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to deny citizenship to infants born to undocumented parents in many parts of the nation where individuals or states had not successfully sued to prevent implementation – including a number of mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Southern states.

Trump’s executive order limits U.S. citizenship by birth to those who have at least one parent who is a U.S. citizen or legal permanent resident. It denies citizenship to those born to undocumented people within the U.S. and to the children of those on student, work, tourist and certain other types of visas.

The preliminary injunction is on hold for seven days to allow the Trump administration to appeal.

The June 27 Supreme Court decision on birthright citizenship limited the ability of lower-court judges to issue universal injunctions to block such executive orders nationwide.

Laplante was able to avoid that limit on issuing a nationwide injunction by certifying the case as a class action lawsuit encompassing all children affected by the birthright order, following a pathway suggested by the Supreme Court’s ruling.

Pathways beyond universal injunctions

In its recent birthright citizenship ruling, Trump v. CASA, the Supreme Court noted that plaintiffs could still seek broad relief by filing such class action lawsuits that would join together large groups of individuals facing the same injury from the law they were challenging.

And that’s what happened.

Litigants filed suit in New Hampshire’s district court the same day that the Supreme Court decided CASA. They asked the court to certify a class consisting of infants born on or after Feb. 20, 2025, who would be covered by the order and their parents or prospective parents. The court allowed the suit to proceed as a class action for these infants.

Several people raise their hands as a man at a podium answers questions. — President Donald Trump takes questions on June 27, 2025, in Washington, D.C., after the Supreme Court ruled on the birthright citizenship case.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images

What if this injunction doesn’t stick?

If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 1st Circuit or the Supreme Court invalidates the New Hampshire court’s newest national injunction and another injunction is not issued in a different venue, the order will then go into effect anywhere it is not currently barred from doing so. Implementation could begin in as many as 28 states where state attorneys general have not challenged the Trump birthright citizenship policy if no other individuals or groups secure relief.

As political science scholars who study race and immigration policy, we believe that, if implemented piecemeal, Trump’s birthright citizenship order would create administrative chaos for states determining the citizenship status of infants born in the United States. And it could lead to the first instances since the 1860s of infants being born in the U.S. being denied citizenship categorically.

States’ role in establishing citizenship

Almost all U.S.-born children are issued birth certificates by the state in which they are born.

The federal government’s standardized form, the U.S. standard certificate of live birth, collects data on parents’ birthplaces and their Social Security numbers, if available, and provides the information states need to issue birth certificates.

But it does not ask questions about their citizenship or immigration status. And no national standard exists for the format for state birth certificates, which traditionally have been the simplest way for people born in the U.S. to establish citizenship.

If Trump’s executive order goes into effect, birth certificates issued by local hospitals would be insufficient evidence of eligibility for federal government documents acknowledging citizenship. The order would require new efforts, including identification of parents’ citizenship status, before authorizing the issuance of any federal document acknowledging citizenship.

Since states control the process of issuing birth certificates, they will respond differently to implementation efforts. Several states filed a lawsuit on Jan. 21 to block the birthright citizenship order. And they will likely pursue an arsenal of strategies to resist, delay and complicate implementation.

While the Supreme Court has not yet confirmed that these states have standing to challenge the order, successful litigation could bar implementation in up to 18 states and the District of Columbia if injunctions are narrowly framed, or nationally if lawyers can persuade judges that disentangling the effects on a state-by-state basis will be too difficult.

Other states will likely collaborate with the administration to deny citizenship to some infants. Some, like Texas, had earlier attempted to make it particularly hard for undocumented parents to obtain birth certificates for their children.

Protesters hold signs in front of a federal building. — People demonstrate outside the Supreme Court of the United States on May 15, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Potential for chaos

If the Supreme Court rejects attempts to block the executive order nationally again, implementation will be complicated.

That’s because it would operate in some places and toward some individuals while being legally blocked in other places and toward others, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor warned in her Trump v. CASA dissent.

Children born to plaintiffs anywhere in the nation who have successfully sued would have access to citizenship, while other children possibly born in the same hospitals – but not among the groups named in the suits – would not.

Babies born in the days before implementation would have substantially different rights than those born the day after. Parents’ ethnicity and countries of origin would likely influence which infants are ultimately granted or denied citizenship.

That’s because some infants and parents would be more likely to generate scrutiny from hospital employees and officials than others, including Hispanics, women giving birth near the border, and women giving birth in states such as Florida where officials are likely to collaborate enthusiastically with enforcement.

The consequences could be profound.

Some infants would become stateless, having no right to citizenship in another nation. Many people born in the U.S. would be denied government benefits, Social Security numbers and the ability to work legally in the U.S.

With the constitutionality of the executive order still unresolved, it’s unclear when, if ever, some infants born in the U.S. will be the first in the modern era to be denied citizenship.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How citizenship chaos was averted, for now, by a class action injunction against Trump’s birthright citizenship order – https://theconversation.com/how-citizenship-chaos-was-averted-for-now-by-a-class-action-injunction-against-trumps-birthright-citizenship-order-260175

July 11, 2025

Don’t let food poisoning crash your picnic – six tips to keep your spread safe

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Edward Fox, Associate Professor, Department of Applied Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle

Nothing says summer quite like a picnic. Whether you’re lounging on a beach towel, stretched out in a park, or unpacking a hamper in your garden, picnics are a beloved way to enjoy good food in the great outdoors.

In the UK alone, the picnic food market is worth over £2 billion each year, with millions of us heading out for an alfresco feast with family or friends when the sun is shining.

But as idyllic as they may seem, picnics come with hidden risks, especially when it comes to food safety. Without access to fridges, ovens or running water, the chances of foodborne illness such as diarrhoea increase. So, how can you keep your spread both delicious and safe?

Warm, sunny weather is perfect for picnics – and unfortunately, also for bacteria. High temperatures can cause harmful microbes to multiply quickly in certain foods – especially meat, eggs, dairy or salads with creamy dressings. Add in a few flies or some dirty hands, and your picnic could become a recipe for illness.

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Food poisoning bacteria can find their way into picnic food from several sources: flies that land on uncovered dishes, unwashed hands, cross-contaminated utensils, or even from leaving perishable food out in the sun too long.

This is not just a theoretical risk. There have been several well-documented outbreaks linked to picnics, including one event in Texas where more than 100 people developed diarrhoea and fever after eating food contaminated with salmonella. In another case at a church picnic in Ohio, clostridium botulinum – a bacterium that can be fatal – contaminated potato salad and led to one death.

Six tips to enjoy your picnic safely

However, with a few simple steps, you can protect yourself and others while enjoying that alfresco feast:

1. Keep cold food cold. If you’re bringing dishes that normally need refrigeration (think meats, cheese, egg mayo), don’t pack them until the last minute. Use a cool bag or insulated box with ice packs or frozen water bottles to help keep things chilled. Once you’re out, only take food out of the cooler when it’s time to eat, and always try to keep it in the shade.

2. Watch the clock. On hot days, perishable foods should be eaten within two hours (or four hours if it’s mild). After that, any leftovers should be thrown away. Don’t be tempted to take food home and refrigerate it “just in case” – one family in Belgium did just that with a salad, and ended up with severe food poisoning two days later.

3. Wash those hands. Picnics often mean touching tables, grass, pets or public benches – all potential sources of bacteria. Hand sanitiser is your best friend. Use it before handling or eating any food.

4. Cover up. Insects, especially flies, can carry bacteria and leave them behind when they land. Keep food in sealed containers or cover with foil or clean cloths to protect your spread. This helps keep animals (and rogue seagulls) away too.

5. Prep fresh produce properly. Salads, fruits and veg are picnic staples, but they must be washed thoroughly before being packed. Even pre-washed leaves can benefit from a rinse. Pack them in clean containers and don’t let utensils touch dirty surfaces.

6. Keep your utensils clean. Bring enough serving spoons, tongs and plates – and avoid putting them down on picnic tables or the ground. A spare clean plate is always a good idea when it comes to safe serving.

Enjoy the food, not the fallout

Picnics should leave you with warm memories – not stomach cramps. By following these food safety basics, you can enjoy your outdoor feast without any unwanted after-effects. From chilled pasta salads to hand-cut fruit or that classic homemade quiche, safe food is happy food.

So, pack a blanket, grab your cool bag, and soak up the sunshine – just keep the bacteria at bay.

Edward Fox has received funding from the Food Safety Research Network.

– ref. Don’t let food poisoning crash your picnic – six tips to keep your spread safe – https://theconversation.com/dont-let-food-poisoning-crash-your-picnic-six-tips-to-keep-your-spread-safe-260834

July 11, 2025

Channel crossings: what is a safe and legal route?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gillian McFadyen, Lecturer in International Politics, Aberystwyth University

Since figures were first recorded in 2018, more than 170,000 people have crossed the Channel in small boats, hoping to claim asylum in the UK. Over 20,000 have crossed this year alone, and many dozens have died.

Over the years, UK governments have tried a number of tactics – returns agreements, increased law enforcement, deportation schemes, and “smashing” organised smuggling gangs – to try and put an end to this dangerous practice. The latest attempt is the government’s new “one in, one out” pilot migration deal with France, which would see the UK accept some asylum seekers with legitimate claims to life in the UK, while sending an equivalent number back to France.

Campaigners, academics and groups that support asylum seekers have long called for the UK to introduce “safe and legal routes”. They argue that this is the only way to reduce demand for unsafe Channel crossings. The logic is that people seeking protection are turning to smugglers and small boats because, for most, there are no other options to enter the UK and claim asylum.

But what are these routes?

A safe and legal route is a scheme or journey approved by the UK government that allows people to enter the country without a visa in order to claim asylum. The 1951 refugee convention says that people have the right to claim asylum. But UK law requires someone to be physically present in the country to do so.

A safe and legal route stresses that arriving irregularly – for instance, by crossing the Channel in a small boat – is illegal, even though the UN refugee convention is explicit that refugees should not be penalised for how they arrive to claim refuge.

Does the UK have safe and legal routes?

The UK has had safe and legal routes available for refugees in the recent past.

Most schemes are restricted to certain populations and limited in accessibility. For example, two nationality-specific schemes for Afghans were set up in January 2022, after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. These have resettled roughly 34,000 Afghans in the UK.

The schemes prioritised those who had worked or assisted UK efforts in Afghanistan, as well as assisting vulnerable people such as women and girls at risk, and minority groups. Both routes are now shut.

The UK also has schemes for Ukrainians and Hong Kongers. The Ukrainian schemes (Homes for Ukrainians and the now-closed Ukrainian Family Scheme), established in March 2022, have resettled 217,000 to the UK. The Hong Kong scheme is only eligible for British National Overseas status holders and their dependants. Most of these are not recognised, and nor do they identify, as refugees. Since opening in January 2021, 179,000 have been granted a visa to live in the UK.

There is also the family reunion pathway for those already granted protection in the UK, who can invite spouses or other dependants to join them. This can be viewed as a safe route, but it is specifically for those already with status (refugee or otherwise) in the country. Importantly, those who gain access this way are not given refugee status in their own right, but granted leave to remain that is connected to their family member’s status.

The UK has also worked closely with UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, since March 2021. The UNHCR identifies vulnerable candidates for resettlement direct from regions of conflict, primarily the Middle East and North Africa. This scheme highlights the value of safe and legal routes and the potential for developing a humane asylum route, but at present it is limited in scope, with only 3,798 people granted safe and dignified resettlement in the UK via this route.

The prime minister, Keir Starmer, has stressed that the new pilot with France will be limited to people “who have not tried to enter the UK illegally” and who have a strong case for asylum in the UK – again highlighting the strict access and eligibility for this “safe and legal” route.

White tents with UNHCR printed on them — A refugee camp in Greece in 2016.
Ververidis Vasilis/Shutterstock

If we look at the map of international conflict today, the majority of people in conflict zones would be ineligible for these schemes. Afghans, Eritreans, Syrians, Iranian and Sudanese are some of the top nationalities arriving via the Channel crossing to the UK, but are provided with no safe or legal routes to sanctuary. Yet, in claiming asylum, 68% of small boat arrivals are ultimately granted status.

Conflicts in Gaza, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan have not led to any bespoke humanitarian refugee protection rights from the UK. In practice, it is legally impossible for most asylum seekers to reach the UK via a safe and legal route as the schemes are so limited in scope.

Smashing the gangs

In January 2025, the Refugee Council, an organisation that supports asylum seekers and refugees in the UK, urged the UK to introduce a safe and legal route – in the form of a limited number of refugee visas – in order to stop deaths in the Channel.

Between 2018 and April 2025, 147 people have died attempting to cross the Channel in small boats, with 2024 being the deadliest year for child migrant deaths.

The UK government’s most recent approach has been to “smash the gangs” to prevent small boat crossings. But evidence shows that a criminal justice approach, while popular, ultimately leads smugglers to change their business practices – often jeopardising people further as they take longer routes or put more people into boats.

More safe and legal routes would, on the other hand, reduce demand for smuggling across the Channel, by giving people another option.

Crucially, even if the UK were to successfully “smash the gangs”, this does not eradicate peoples’ need for protection when fleeing war zones. Safe and legal routes would introduce a compassionate and humane refugee system which adheres with the UK’s obligations under international refugee law.

Gillian McFadyen receives funding from ACE Hub Wales, Public Health Wales for the project ‘A Welsh Pathways to Peace: Digital Storytelling and Forced Migration’ (2025-2026).

– ref. Channel crossings: what is a safe and legal route? – https://theconversation.com/channel-crossings-what-is-a-safe-and-legal-route-246931

July 11, 2025

Too much Lena Dunham, Lorde’s new album and a book to break your heart: what to watch, listen to and read this week

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jane Wright, Commissioning Editor, Arts & Culture, The Conversation UK

When I first watched Girls, I remember marvelling at Lena Dunham’s four twenty-something New Yorkers. Sex and the City it was not. I realised wistfully just how much I wished the series had been around when I was in my twenties.

Dunham’s character Hannah Horvath was like a beacon, illuminating the possibilities of how you could just be yourself in this world – good and bad – without apologising for it. I loved her boldness. Girls was messy, awkward, embarrassing, relatable and real. It was also very funny.

Now Dunham brings her latest, similarly awkward comedy-drama, Too Much, to Netflix. The series follows the trials and tribulations of Jess (the brilliant Megan Stalter) as she flees New York for London with a broken heart.

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An American with a romanticised movie-informed idea of Britain, Jess sees Blighty as some kind of fantasy creation fashioned by Jane Austen with a little help from Richard Curtis.

She spends her days obsessing over her ex-boyfriend’s new girlfriend on Instagram and trying to fit into London life. And then she meets laconic musician Felix (Will Sharpe), who is determined to demolish her romantic notions of a Notting Hill-esque London. Discovering they have an instant connection, Jess is thrust back into dating again, still reeling from the PTSD of her previous relationship.

Too Much charts the tumultuous experience of becoming an adult, as Jess experiences all the thrills and vulnerabilities of meeting someone new. Mirroring her own relocation to London, Dunham mines a rich seam of fish-out-of-water comedy as Megan navigates a new city and different culture.

Reviewer Jane Steventon finds the show is a hopeful paean to womanhood, a declaration that messiness, failure and fear are all part of becoming a woman just as much as joy, love and intimacy.

The idea of intimacy takes on a much darker and more troubling meaning in David Cronenberg’s latest body horror Shrouds in which the protagonist Karsh (Vincent Kassel) finds that technology can help him with the grieving process.

Discovering that a piece of wearable tech within a shroud can allow him to watch his wife’s corpse decompose via a video link, Karsh believes this can help reclaim her from her illness. But as the plot progresses, lines blur between Karsh’s dreams and reality and the film becomes darker and more ominous.

This deeply disturbing premise, says film expert Laura Flanagan, allows Cronenberg to explore issues of technology, control and grief, and is all the more chilling when you learn that he embarked on the film after the death of his own wife.

Musical autobiography

Simone de Beauvoir, the great feminist French philosopher, once opined: “One is not born, but rather becomes, a woman.” Meaning, it is down to each woman to articulate and determine her own path and transcend any limits of “femininity” imposed by a patriarchal society.

According to our reviewer Lillian Hingley, the New Zealand singer Lorde unveils that process in her latest album Virgin as she musically explores how her body is changed by what she has been through in her life.

Hingley discovers a multi-layered collection of songs and videos that lead us through a piece of performance art examining identity, sexuality and a female reproductive system that comes fully loaded with both jeopardy and joy.

Last week, the Disney musical Hercules opened in London so we sent along Emma Stafford, professor of Greek culture at the University of Leeds to give us her take.

Despite finding Hercules’ trusty steed Pegasus has been written out of the show and Hades has been somewhat toned down, the innovative role of the five muses has been elevated to a spectacular cross between the chorus of a Greek tragedy and a gospel choir. A terrific cast, impressive visuals, slick stagecraft and magical special effects all mean this high-octane production will delight West End audiences.

The book that won this year’s Women’s Prize for Non-Fiction, The Story of a Heart by Rachel Clarke, has two children at its centre. One is Max Johnson, a healthy nine-year-old whose heart begins to fail, and the other, nine-year-old Keira Ball, a vibrant, pony-mad little girl who is killed in a car accident. Despite their unimaginable grief, Keira’s parents decide to donate her organs. Her precious heart goes to Max, and in that unbearable gift, one child dies, and another child lives.

Leah McLaughlin, a health services researcher who has spent her career working in the emotionally complex and often obscured world of organ donation, found the book a searingly honest account of the hope and despair of this devastating experience.

– ref. Too much Lena Dunham, Lorde’s new album and a book to break your heart: what to watch, listen to and read this week – https://theconversation.com/too-much-lena-dunham-lordes-new-album-and-a-book-to-break-your-heart-what-to-watch-listen-to-and-read-this-week-260893

July 11, 2025

Women with ADHD three times more likely to experience premenstrual dysphoric disorder – new research

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jessica Agnew-Blais, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Queen Mary University of London

PMDD causes symptoms such as mood swings, irritability, depressed mood and anxiety. LightField Studios/ Shutterstock

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has historically been under-studied in women. This means we still have a limited understanding of how the condition may uniquely affect women – and what effect monthly hormonal changes may have on women with ADHD.

But a recent study conducted by me and my colleagues has shown that women with ADHD are at higher risk for mental health struggles associated with the menstrual cycle. We found that having ADHD makes women around three times more likely to experience premenstrual dysphoric disorder.

Premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD), is a serious condition that affects about 3% of women worldwide. The condition can seriously interfere with a person’s everyday life, causing symptoms such as mood swings, irritability, depressed mood and anxiety.

These symptoms occur in the days before menstruation, and resolve after the period starts. For some, PMDD may lead to severe outcomes, such as being at an increased risk of attempting suicide.

We conducted an online survey of 715 women aged 18 to 34 in the UK. We asked them whether they experienced different symptoms of ADHD or PMDD, whether they’d received an ADHD diagnosis from a doctor and how symptoms interfered with their lives.

We found that about 31% of women with a clinical ADHD diagnosis also had PMDD, as did around 41% of women who scored high for ADHD symptoms (whether they had been formally diagnosed with ADHD or not). In comparison, only about 9% of women without ADHD met the criteria for PMDD. We also found that women who had ADHD and a clinical diagnosis of depression or anxiety had an even greater risk of PMDD.

The research showed that the most common PMDD symptoms women experienced were irritability, feeling overwhelmed and depression. But women with ADHD may also be more likely to experience insomnia when they have PMDD.

A young woman sits on a couch looking sad.

The PMDD and ADHD link

Our study isn’t the first to show a link between the two conditions, but it is the first to identify a similar PMDD risk among women with ADHD symptoms, not just among those who were in treatment. We’re also the first to show that people who have ADHD plus depression or anxiety are at an even greater risk of PMDD.

Other research suggests that women with ADHD may also be at higher risk for mental health problems during other times of hormonal change. For instance, one study found women with ADHD experienced higher rates of depression and anxiety after starting combined oral hormonal contraceptives. Another study found that women with ADHD were more likely to experience depression after giving birth than those without the condition.

More research is now needed to understand why women with ADHD appear to be more vulnerable to PMDD, and whether this affects what treatments work best.

It should be noted that our study assesses “provisional PMDD diagnosis”. An official diagnosis requires two months of symptom tracking across the menstrual cycle. But we asked women to remember how they felt across their menstrual cycle rather than tracking how they feel in real-time.

This means we could be over- or under-estimating PMDD prevalence as we’re relying on participants to recall their symptoms.

Future research should assess PMDD symptoms among women in real-time as they experience their menstrual cycles to more accurately assess symptoms without having to rely on people’s memory. Additionally, it may be difficult to distinguish PMDD from other disorders that may worsen during the premenstrual period, such as depression or anxiety. Tracking symptoms across the menstrual cycle in real-time would help to disentangle this.

PMDD can have profoundly negative effects on women’s lives. Some women even report it can make them feel “physically unable to see the joy in things”. Although symptoms can be managed with prescription treatments, this can only happen if the condition is diagnosed by a doctor.

Our new research shows us that women with ADHD are an at-risk group for PMDD, especially if they also have depression or anxiety. This suggests doctors should consider screening for PMDD among women with ADHD to reduce distress and adverse outcomes associated with the condition.

Jessica Agnew-Blais receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council and GambleAware for her research.

– ref. Women with ADHD three times more likely to experience premenstrual dysphoric disorder – new research – https://theconversation.com/women-with-adhd-three-times-more-likely-to-experience-premenstrual-dysphoric-disorder-new-research-260222

July 11, 2025

Pallets are the backbone of global trade but supplies are threatened by theft, loss – and giant bonfires

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Liz Breen, Professor of Health Service Operations, School of Pharmacy & Medical Sciences, University of Bradford

Craigyhill bonfire was declared the world’s tallest at a height of 203 feet (63 metres) in 2022. Thousands of pallets were used to build it. Stephen Barnes/Shutterstock

Pallets don’t usually make headlines. But amid fresh controversy around the traditional July bonfires held in Northern Ireland this year, they’ve suddenly become a talking point. Wooden pallets used in these bonfires are popular due to their stacking ability, and also their colours – which include the red, white and blue of Britain.

Ordinarily, pallets are used to transport products from manufacturers to retailers. But their numbers are shrinking due to theft and loss – and of course, they cost money to buy, store, use and replace. A study by one of us (Liz) in 2006 quoted a logistics firm that estimated 14 million pallets were generally missing throughout Europe, costing £140 million. And it’s an ongoing problem: millions of products such as pallets and packaging containers are still stolen each year across the continent.

Just one bonfire in Larne, County Antrim, in July 2021 reportedly used 17,000 pallets in its construction. This year, police are investigating where the pallets used in the same community’s bonfire originated from. Amid speculation that some may belong to Australia-based supply chain firm Chep, that company has stated its pallets can never legally be bought, sold or destroyed.

Pallet losses can lead to logistical disruptions, delayed orders and bare shelves in supermarkets. And the impact is felt by pallet owners, manufacturers, customers and end-users alike.

Pallets are big business. In the US, around 513 million – mainly wooden, some plastic – are produced each year. In 2021, 48.6 million wooden pallets were produced in the UK, up 8.3% from 2020.

Rental companies can hold high numbers of pallets, which support the movement of “fast-moving” customer goods – including food, drinks and toiletries. North American firm Peco, for example, manages stock of over 20 million distinctive red wooden pallets across its 90 depots.

Manufacturers rely on pallets being available to fulfil orders and distribute them to customers quickly. Also known as “returnable transit packaging”, they are valuable assets as they can be maintained and reused. They are usually owned by a pallet pooling agent, which must absorb the loss when they are not returned from customers.

Why steal pallets?

Good-condition pallets have a resale value. Both wood and plastic pallets can be deconstructed and sold as components to other industries. Some people even use them to create furniture for homes and gardens.

Customers may feel these are legitimate upcycled products and won’t think to check where the pallets came from. However, some do have distinctive identification stamps that may remain in upcycled pallet products.

The organised theft of these products takes its toll on companies. Cargo crime (which includes consumer goods and transportation pallets and containers) is said to cost the UK economy £700 million each year.

If pallets are not available, production lines may be slowed down or stopped. And it may take longer to produce items, potentially leading to unnecessary transportation as well as greater fuel consumption and emissions.

But it can also be challenging to map pallet movements and know, at any given time, how many are in transit, with retailers, or lost. Digital tracking solutions such as radio frequency identification can be expensive to implement and are not foolproof. This can make it easy for pallets to go “missing in action”.

Pallets are a staple mechanism for stock to be received into retailers’ warehouses and distribution centres. Both the size of the pallets and their ownership can be colour-coded – at least some of the blue pallets making headlines this summer in Larne’s red, white and blue tower are thought to be owned by Chep. Warehouse bays are designed with specific pallets in mind – so changes to the pallets can bring extra costs.

Similarly, replacing lost or stolen pallets comes at a price – which could ultimately be felt by consumers if these costs are passed on by retailers.

Reducing theft and loss

Pallet owners cannot afford to continue losing them to theft. Firms that are found using non-compliant or untracked pallets because they have bought them from unauthorised sources can face shipment fines, while other initiatives, such as deposit or voucher schemes or one-for-one exchange plans, could incentivise the return of pallets.

These practices may influence corporate return behaviour, but the theft of pallets by organised crime gangs is increasing. Changing the materials used to construct pallets could reduce their financial attractiveness and resale value.

At first glance, a used pallet might look no more useful than discarded wood and be considered fair game for reuse or selling on. But businesses or individuals who collect, sell or purchase stolen pallets are putting themselves at legal risk. Firms found stockpiling or selling-on pallets without permission have faced legal action and even jail in Europe.

Aside from the legal implications, there are other operational and environmental costs. Each pallet taken out of circulation must be replaced, increasing demand for virgin timber, straining forest resources, and increasing labour costs.

The humble pallet is the backbone of global trading, and businesses rely on a steady and dependable supply. Pallet services function only if they continue to circulate – but theft and losses undermine this. Without this simple product, everyone from producers to retailers and consumers could end up paying more for the goods they take for granted.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Pallets are the backbone of global trade but supplies are threatened by theft, loss – and giant bonfires – https://theconversation.com/pallets-are-the-backbone-of-global-trade-but-supplies-are-threatened-by-theft-loss-and-giant-bonfires-260948

July 11, 2025

‘Come meet us in Dubai’: the new offshoring of grand corruption

Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Heathershaw, Professor in International Relations, University of Exeter

So-called professional enablers of grand corruption are increasing service provision out of jurisdictions where they can act without similar restraints. WaitForLight / Shutterstock

During an interview one of us (Ricardo Soares de Oliveira) carried out in 2017, an African high net-worth individual said he was told by an executive whose business had long served him out of London: “Come meet us in Dubai”. This is part of a large but still misunderstood shift.

In response to the hardening of rules for foreign money of dubious origins in traditional financial centres, sensitive business has been moving toward new, more permissive jurisdictions. This offshoring of services is giving corrupt strategies a new lease of life, while also making the fightback more difficult.

For every corrupt dealing that materialises as legitimate wealth, a trail of service provision is indispensable. Bankers, lawyers, real estate executives, accountants, management consultants and PR agencies have acted as facilitators in western financial centres.

Western governments have long indulged kleptocracy, a system where business success and political power are inextricably entwined. They have done so by condoning lax law enforcement and promoting deregulation, often through risible mechanisms of professional self-regulation.

But in recent years, data leaks and brave championship of reform by politicians, as well as the work of civil society organisations, investigative journalists and academics, have shed light on the role of these so-called professional enablers.

In June 2024, a month before becoming British foreign secretary, David Lammy promised to take aim at professionals who enable corruption through London and the UK’s overseas territories. This, he noted, included the “finest bankers, lawyers, estate agents and accountants that money could buy”.

Lammy’s comments give the impression that the era of risk-free facilitation of corrupt behaviour is at an end. But this optimism is, at least for now, misplaced.

The shift is largely in political discourse and media scrutiny. Enforcement seriously lags everywhere and is now in reverse gear in the US. Professional enablers still face no real sanction for engaging in such practices.

At the same time, many professionals are reacting to a more tightly regulated ecosystem in western jurisdictions by engaging in so-called “jurisdictional arbitrage”. There is evidence that they are increasing service provision out of jurisdictions where they can act without similar restraints.

Jurisdictional arbitrage

Almost all cases of the professional enabling we have studied involve service provision in western hubs and “new” global financial centres.

The professional network around Gulnara Karimova, the daughter of the former president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, was dubbed “the office” by Swiss prosecutors. Karimova was jailed in 2014 for taking bribes for access to the country’s market.

The criminal investigation into her involved 12 jurisdictions, including the UK, US and Uzbekistan as well as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong.

Isabel dos Santos, who is Africa’s richest woman and the daughter of former Angolan president José Eduardo dos Santos, also held a maze of global interests. These interests, as in the case of Karimova, spanned western jurisdictions and Asian financial centres such as Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong.

Alternative jurisdictions all offer very similar conditions. They are already well-connected, world-class financial centres that are attractive to international business executives.

Their governments have created regulatory, fiscal and secrecy conditions, sometimes explicitly undercutting older centres such as Switzerland and London. In the latest edition of the Global Financial Centers index, which ranks the competitiveness of financial centres, Dubai rose four places to go above Dublin, Geneva and Paris.

Crucially, they are also mostly authoritarian states where there is no media or civil society pressure regarding business activities. Even the intermittent sort of scrutiny one sees in western financial centres is absent there.

Much activity in these financial centres is legal and based on their legitimate competitive advantages. Business interests are also attracted by their vast capital pools. But they are proving to be especially appealing for the sort of business that can no longer flock to other jurisdictions.

This is the case with servicing clients from states under sanctions such as Russia or Iran. It also applies to regions like Africa and central Asia with high compliance barriers whose high net-worth individuals and firms can no longer get easy access to OECD jurisdictions.

Researchers at the University of Sussex have shown a major shift in dirty money networks away from the west and towards what they call a “Dubai-Kong axis”.

There is no exact portrait of the magnitude of this jurisdictional arbitrage. But our work tells us it is big. Two examples from Switzerland are commodity trading and wealth management.

These sectors have long been under-scrutinised. But they have seen regulatory tightening and greater media attention in recent years. Both have reacted the same way, by sending important parts of their business away from Switzerland.

The UAE has been dubbed the “new Swiss financial mecca”, with the Financial Times reporting in May 2025 that Swiss family offices are moving there “wholesale”. Far from downplaying the “Swiss brand”, they continue to advertise their multi-generational expertise and “old money” mystique, but from more amenable locations.

What can be done?

The many types of legal business involving professional services in these jurisdictions should not be affected. But national and international law must designate the “kleptocratic enterprise” of elites and professionals as a form of serious organised crime.

This would allow prosecutors to target professionals for working with criminal kleptocrats rather than having to prove that the particular asset handled has criminal origin. This move was made by Swiss prosecutors in the Karimova case.

It captures the reality that ill-gotten gains are layered and integrated into assets held overseas, just as enablers do for criminal gangs. It also means that the moving of the family office to Dubai will not prevent prosecution where an asset is held or registered.

Finally, governments could stimulate the market in asset recovery by making it easier for foreign governments and civil society to bring cases, with expert law firms working on a for-profit basis.

Illicit finance is always transnational, so there is no need to declare defeat just because dodgy business is on the move. However, we are entering a new stage in its global dissemination and complexity.

John Heathershaw receives funding from the Governance Integrity Anti-Corruption Evidence Programme funded by UK Aid from the UK Government for the benefits of developing countries. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the UK government’s official policies. He is affiliated with the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition.

Ricardo Soares de Oliveira receives funding from the Governance Integrity Anti-Corruption Evidence Programme funded by UK Aid from the UK Government for the benefits of developing countries. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the UK government’s official policies.

– ref. ‘Come meet us in Dubai’: the new offshoring of grand corruption – https://theconversation.com/come-meet-us-in-dubai-the-new-offshoring-of-grand-corruption-258434