Category: Academic Analysis

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Christopher Carr, Assistant Professor of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

Envision a time when hundreds of spacecraft are exploring the solar system and beyond. That’s the future that NASA’s ESCAPADE, or escape and plasma acceleration and dynamics explorers, mission will help unleash: one where small, low-cost spacecraft enable researchers to learn rapidly, iterate, and advance technology and science.

The ESCAPADE mission will launch in mid-November 2025 on a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket, sending two small orbiters to Mars to study its atmosphere. As aerospace engineers, we’re excited about this mission because not only will it do great science while advancing the deep space capabilities of small spacecraft, but it also will travel to the red planet on an innovative new trajectory.

The ESCAPADE mission is actually two spacecraft instead of one. Two identical spacecraft will take simultaneous measurements, resulting in better science. These spacecraft are smaller than those used in the past, each about the size of a copy machine, partly enabled by an ongoing miniaturization trend in the space industry. Doing more with less is very important for space exploration, because it typically takes most of the mass of a spacecraft simply to transport it where you want it to go.

Having two spacecraft also acts as an insurance policy in case one of them doesn’t work as planned. Even if one completely fails, researchers can still do science with a single working spacecraft. This redundancy enables each spacecraft to be built more affordably than in the past, because the copies allow for more acceptance of risk.

Studying Mars’ history

Long before the ESCAPADE twin spacecraft Blue and Gold were ready to go to space – billions of years ago, to be more precise – Mars had a much thicker atmosphere than it does now. This atmosphere would have enabled liquids to flow on its surface, creating the channels and gullies that scientists can still observe today.

But where did the bulk of this atmosphere go? Its loss turned Mars into the cold and dry world it is today, with a surface air pressure less than 1% of Earth’s.

Mars also once had a magnetic field, like Earth’s, that helped to shield its atmosphere. That atmosphere and magnetic field would have been critical to any life that might have existed on early Mars.

ESCAPADE will measure remnants of this magnetic field that have been preserved by ancient rock and study the flow and energy of Mars’ atmosphere and how it interacts with the solar wind, the stream of particles that the sun emits along with light. These measurements will help to reveal where the atmosphere went and how quickly Mars is still losing it today.

Weathering space on a budget

Space is not a friendly place. Most of it is a vacuum – that is, mostly empty, without the gas molecules that create pressure and allow you to breathe or transfer heat. These molecules keep things from getting too hot or too cold. In space, with no pressure, a spacecraft can easily get too hot or too cold, depending on whether it is in sunlight or in shadow.

In addition, the Sun and other, farther astronomical objects emit radiation that living things do not experience on Earth. Earth’s magnetic field protects you from the worst of this radiation. So when humans or our robotic representatives leave the Earth, our spacecraft must survive in this extreme environment not present on Earth.

ESCAPADE will overcome these challenges with a shoestring budget totaling US$80 million. That is a lot of money, but for a mission to another planet it is inexpensive. It has kept costs low by leveraging commercial technologies for deep space exploration, which is now possible because of prior investments in fundamental research.

For example, the GRAIL mission, launched in 2011, previously used two spacecraft, Ebb and Flow, to map the Moon’s gravity fields. ESCAPADE takes this concept to another world, Mars, and costs a fraction as much as GRAIL.

Led by Rob Lillis of UC Berkeley’s Space Sciences Laboratory, this collaboration between spacecraft builders Rocket Lab, trajectory specialists Advanced Space LLC and launch provider Blue Origin – all commercial partners funded by NASA – aims to show that deep space exploration is now faster, more agile and more affordable than ever before.

How will ESCAPADE get to Mars?

ESCAPADE will also use a new trajectory to get to Mars. Imagine being an archer in the Olympics. To hit a bull’s-eye, you have to shoot an arrow through a 15-inch – 40-centimeter – circle from a distance of 300 feet, or 90 meters. Now imagine the bull’s-eye represents Mars. To hit it from Earth, you would have to shoot an arrow through the same 15-inch bull’s-eye at a distance of over 13 miles, or 22 kilometers. You would also have to shoot the arrow in a curved path so that it goes around the Sun.

Not only that, but Mars won’t be at the bull’s-eye at the time you shoot the arrow. You must shoot for the spot that Mars will be in 10 months from now. This is the problem that the ESCAPADE mission designers faced. What is amazing is that the physical laws and forces of nature are so predictable that this was not even the hardest problem to solve for the ESCAPADE mission.

It takes energy to get from one place to another. To go from Earth to Mars, a spacecraft has to carry the energy it needs, in the form of rocket fuel, much like gasoline in a car. As a result, a high percentage of the total launch mass has to be fuel for the trip.

When going to Mars orbit from Earth orbit, as much as 80% to 85% of the spacecraft mass has to be propellant, which means not much mass is dedicated to the part of the spacecraft that does all the experiments. This issue makes it important to pack as much capability into the rest of the spacecraft as possible. For ESCAPADE, the propellant is only about 65% of the spacecraft’s mass.

ESCAPADE’s route is particularly fuel-efficient. First, Blue and Gold will go to the L2 Lagrange point, one of five places where gravitational forces of the Sun and Earth cancel out. Then, after about a year, during which they will collect data monitoring the Sun, they will fly by the Earth, using its gravitational field to get a boost. This way, they will arrive at Mars in about 10 more months.

This new approach has another advantage beyond needing to carry less fuel: Trips from Earth to Mars are typically favorable to save fuel about every 26 months due to the two planets’ relative positions. However, this new trajectory makes the departure time more flexible. Future cargo and human missions could use a similar trajectory to have more frequent and less time-constrained trips to Mars.

ESCAPADE will be a testament to a new era in spaceflight. For a new generation of scientists and engineers, ESCAPADE is not just a mission – it is a blueprint for a new collaborative era of exploration and discovery.

Christopher E. Carr is part of the science team for the Rocket Lab Mission to Venus (funding from Schmidt Sciences and NASA). More information is available at https://www.morningstarmissions.space/rocketlabmissiontovenus

Glenn Lightsey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Let’s go on an ESCAPADE – NASA’s small, low-cost orbiters will examine Mars’ atmosphere – https://theconversation.com/lets-go-on-an-escapade-nasas-small-low-cost-orbiters-will-examine-mars-atmosphere-269321

Source: The Conversation – USA – By R. Lincoln Hines, Assistant Professor of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology

China’s Shenzhou-20 spacecraft took a hit from a piece of space debris floating through orbit, causing Chinese officials to delay the spacecraft’s return from its Tiangong space station in early November 2025.

In addition to stranding the three Chinese astronauts – called taikonauts – who were set to return to Earth, this incident highlights the increasing risks posed to China and the broader international community by the growing amount of space debris.

I study China’s space program. My research suggests that national pride plays an important role in China’s growing space ambitions. As China continues to invest in expensive space capabilities, it will also likely become increasingly sensitive to losing them. The rise in space debris may create incentives for Chinese officials to cooperate with the United States on measures that reduce the risk of collisions.

Space debris – a growing issue

Space debris is creating growing problems for space operations. It includes any artificial objects in orbit not operating as satellites or spacecraft. It ranges in size from a fleck of paint to large rocket bodies roughly the size of a school bus.

In the most commonly used orbit – low Earth orbit – this debris can move at speeds of roughly 18,000 mph, almost seven times the speed of a bullet. At such high speeds, even tiny pieces of space debris can be highly destructive, to the point that this debris might continue to multiply until one day it makes certain critical orbits unusable. When space debris collides with other objects and fragments, they can break into smaller pieces, generating even more debris.

It’s somewhat ironic that China’s spacecraft took a hit from space junk. The country is responsible for creating the majority of space debris. In 2007, China blew up a defunct Fengyun-1c weather satellite to test an anti-satellite weapon. It generated the most space debris in history – over 3,000 pieces are still orbiting today.

On several occasions, the International Space Station has had to maneuver to narrowly avoid being struck by debris from this test, including as recently as 2021.

Anti-satellite weapons

Why would China, or any other country, want to develop an anti-satellite weapon? Satellites provide significant benefits to militaries. They help with reconnaissance and intelligence, allow for the precise targeting and guidance of long-range munitions, support communication over large distances and supply weather data, to name just a few uses.

These advantages were showcased during the first Gulf War, often called the “first space war.” The United States used space technologies to quickly and decisively defeat the Iraqi military within weeks, and with far fewer casualties than expected. The Gulf War had a profound impact on Chinese military thinking, with analysts in the People’s Liberation Army recognizing the importance of space technologies in modern warfare.

Whereas the United States has been and remains highly dependent on space capabilities, China has historically been less dependent on them. This means that China has traditionally had far less to lose from striking satellites in orbit and comparatively more to gain from disabling an adversary’s satellites.

Since the 1990s, China has invested in technologies that can jam, disable or outright destroy another country’s satellites. This effort has been driven by a desire to counter what it sees as a key vulnerability of the U.S. military – its heavy reliance on space capabilities.

Yet much has changed since China’s first anti-satellite test in 2007.

China has gradually narrowed the gap with the United States in space capabilities and is now one of the most powerful spacefaring nations on Earth. As a result, China now has more at stake if it were to lose access to space.

Space debris is becoming a serious threat to Chinese interests in space. In 2022, for example, reports emerged that debris from Russia’s 2021 ASAT test came dangerously close to a Chinese satellite. Similarly, in 2021 China filed a claim at the United Nations that China’s Tiangong space station had to perform avoidance maneuvers due to “close encounters” with Starlink satellites. And now, in November 2025, China’s Shenzhou-20 spacecraft has actually been struck by space debris.

Recognizing the problem

It is too early to gauge how seriously Chinese officials view the threat of space debris. However, the high-profile nature of this recent incident may alert China’s public and officials to the risks posed by space debris.

China’s space station, its astronauts and its satellites are important to the Chinese Communist Party. If space debris permanently destroyed parts or all of China’s space station, or even killed a Chinese astronaut, it would likely lead to significant public outcry.

China’s space station is a project over three decades in the making and is the crown jewel of its space program. The Tiangong is set to become the only space station in orbit if the United States proceeds with its plans to deorbit the ISS in 2030.

Just as an owner of an expensive Lamborghini may become increasingly worried about dangerous road conditions that may damage their prized possession, Chinese officials may become anxious about China’s ability to operate its space station should space junk continue to clutter low Earth orbit.

Even if space debris does not damage China’s space station, it still poses a risk to Chinese satellites. And low Earth orbit is likely to become only more crowded, as SpaceX has announced plans to add up to 40,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, and China plans to add tens of thousands more satellites in low Earth orbit through its Guowang and Qianfan satellite megaconstellations.

China’s growing vulnerability to space debris creates an area of mutual concern where the United States and China may be able to work together to avoid future accidents.

Risk-reduction measures could include the two countries notifying each other about potential collisions. China and the United States could also open discussions around how to safely operate satellites or remove them from orbit when they’re no longer useful.

It remains to be seen what lessons Chinese decision-makers draw from this recent episode. But the problem of space debris is not going away.

R. Lincoln Hines does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Space debris struck a Chinese spacecraft – how the incident could be a wake-up call for international collaboration – https://theconversation.com/space-debris-struck-a-chinese-spacecraft-how-the-incident-could-be-a-wake-up-call-for-international-collaboration-269268

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nicholas Jacobs, Goldfarb Family Distinguished Chair in American Government, Colby College; Institute for Humane Studies

Every few years, Democrats try to convince themselves they’ve found the one – a candidate who can finally speak fluent rural, who looks and sounds like the voters they’ve lost.

In 2024, that hope was pinned on Tim Walz, the flannel-wearing, “Midwestern nice” governor whose small-town roots were supposed to unlock the rural Midwest for a Harris–Walz victory.

It did not.

Now those expectations have migrated to New England, onto Graham Platner – the tattooed veteran and oyster farmer from Maine who swears from the stump, wears sweatshirts instead of suits, and, some believe, could be the party’s blue-collar savior against Sen. Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent running her sixth campaign for U.S. Senate.

I study rural politics and live in rural Maine. I’m skeptical whether Platner can reach the independents and rural moderates Democrats need. But I also see why people think he might: He’s speaking to grievances that are real, measurable and decades in the making.

Platner represents Democrats’ anxieties about class and geography – a projection of the authenticity they hope might reconcile their national brand with rural America. On paper, he’s the kind of figure they imagine can bridge the divide: a plainspoken Mainer.

But his story cuts both ways. He’s the grandson of a celebrated Manhattan architect, his father is a lawyer and his mother is a restaurateur whose business caters to summer tourists. He attended the elite Hotchkiss School.

It’s a life of silver spoons and salt air. That tension mirrors the Democratic party itself, led and funded by urban professionals who are increasingly aware of just how far they strayed from their working-class roots.

If Platner is to prevail, he must assemble a coalition that expands beyond what the party has become – concentrated in urban and coastal enclaves, financed nationally and culturally distant from much of rural America.

Yet Platner’s immediate hurdle isn’t rural Maine at all. It is the Democratic primary, and those voters do not live where his campaign imagery is set.

Opportunity zone

In 2024, nearly 6 in 10 registered Democrats in Maine lived south of the state capital Augusta. That part of the state would not constitute an urban metropolis anywhere else in the U.S., but it is a drastically different world than the one Platner is fighting for.

The party’s gravitational center sits in Cumberland and York counties: Greater Portland and the southern coastal strip. That electorate is more educated, affluent and urban than the state as a whole, clustered in Portland’s walkable neighborhoods, college towns such as Brunswick and artsy coastal communities that swell with summer tourists.

Southern Maine – closer in feel to Boston’s suburbs than to the paper mills and potato fields up north – is where Democrats are already strong. Collins’ vulnerability lies instead among independents in small cities and towns, in deindustrialized and rural counties drifting rightward for two decades.

The 2020 U.S. Senate race – one that nearly every analyst, myself included, thought Collins was doomed to lose to Democrat Sara Gideon – makes that reality clear.

Collins outperformed Donald Trump in every county. She built commanding margins in rural Maine, offsetting Democratic gains in Portland and the southern coast. Her real breakthrough came in the kinds of small towns where Trump lost and she won or closed the margin: Ellsworth, Brewer, Machias, Gardiner and Winterport.

Those former mill towns and service hubs once anchored the Maine Democratic Party. They’re home to exactly the kinds of voters who, in principle, might give someone like Platner a hearing: not deeply ideological, modestly skeptical of both parties and wary of national polarization.

But they are also the voters least represented in the Democratic primary electorate or the donor class fueling Platner’s campaign.

Doing it as a Democrat

According to the most recent Federal Election Commission figures, only about 12% of Platner’s haul has even come from inside Maine. The nationalization of campaign finance is becoming more common for U.S. Senate candidates.

But there are two differences worth noting.

Platner’s in-state share is higher and more geographically diffuse than Gideon’s 2020 campaign. Then, in what became Maine’s most expensive Senate race, just 4% of Gideon’s war chest was homegrown. Most of that Maine money was heavily concentrated in Portland and the southern coastal corridor.

While 64% of Gideon’s Maine total fundraising amount came from the three southernmost counties, 88% of Platner’s current in-state funding is from outside the urban-suburban core of southern Maine.

That divergence matters. It suggests that while Platner’s campaign is still fueled by national money, its local base – however small – extends beyond the usual Portland orbit.

And there is a reason Platner’s message has not been dead on arrival.

The economic populism he’s advancing speaks directly to the material frustrations many rural residents express – frustration with corporate consolidation, rising costs and the feeling that prosperity never reaches their communities.

The 2024 Cooperative Election Study shows that rural independents and moderates often share progressive instincts on precisely these issues: Large majorities of rural, moderate/independent New Englanders support higher taxes on the wealthy and expanded health coverage. Platner is emphasizing those issues – corporate power, health costs, infrastructure, wages – where the urban–rural divide is narrowest.

Platner may be closing that gap. In an October 2025 survey, 58% of likely Democratic primary voters named him as their first choice for the 2026 Senate nomination. While that support has likely changed in the aftermath of two controversies – his chest tattoo that resembled a Nazi icon and recent posts on Reddit, including one in which he says rural people “actually are” “stupid” and “racist” – that poll’s most notable finding is the consistency of support across income and education levels.

Still, while his message may bridge income and education, the biggest obstacle facing Platner is the simplest one: He’s trying to do all of this as a Democrat.

Hearing, not speaking

Being anchored in metropolitan and professional networks far removed from rural life shapes not only what Democrats stand for but how they speak, focusing on moral and cultural commitments that resonate nationally but feel abstract in smaller, locally based communities.

That’s why even an economically resonant message struggles once it meets the national brand.

Rural independents and moderates often agree with Democrats on taxes, health care and wages. Those alignments fade when policy is framed through the institutions and moral language of a party many no longer see as compatible with rural ways of living.

It’s not clear yet how Platner will respond on issues that don’t poll well in rural Maine – environmental regulation, gun control or immigration – where loyalty to the national agenda has undone many would-be reformers before him.

And that schism is not because rural voters misunderstand their “self-interest” or because racial dog whistles have led them astray. It is hostility toward a party that, with rare exception, sees the future as something rural America must adapt to, not something it should help define.

That is the danger of treating biography as the solution to a decades-long realignment. Platner might be as close as Democrats have come in years to a candidate who can talk credibly to rural voters about power, place and policy. But he still has to do it while wearing the “scarlet D” – the weight of a party brand built over generations.

Whether he wins or loses, his campaign already points to a deeper question: Can Democrats do more than rent rural authenticity? Put more bluntly, the real test is not whether Platner can speak to rural Maine, it is whether his party can finally learn to hear it.

Nicholas Jacobs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why rural Maine may back Democrat Graham Platner’s populism in the Senate campaign − but not his party – https://theconversation.com/why-rural-maine-may-back-democrat-graham-platners-populism-in-the-senate-campaign-but-not-his-party-269466

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Lily Hsueh, Associate Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Arizona State University

The Trump administration has given corporations plenty of convenient excuses to retreat from their climate commitments, with its moves to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, roll back emissions regulations, and scale back clean energy incentives.

But will the world’s largest corporations follow its lead?

Some multinational companies have indeed scaled back. For instance, Wells Fargo dropped its goal for the companies the bank finances to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, saying the conditions necessary for meeting that goal, such as policy certainty, consumer behavior and the pace of clean technology development, hadn’t fully materialized. Oil giant BP told investors that earlier optimism about a fast transition to renewable energy was “misplaced” given the changing regulatory environment.

However, many others, including the world’s largest retailer, Walmart, aren’t trading their long-term risk planning for Washington’s focus on short-term cost savings. They are continuing their climate policies, but often doing so quietly to avoid scrutiny.

These companies still face ongoing pressure from state and local governments, the European Union, customers and other sources to reduce their impact on the climate. They also see ways to gain a competitive advantage from investing in a cleaner future.

As a professor of economics and public policy, I study what motivates global businesses to engage in environmentally friendly behavior. For my new book, “Corporations at Climate Crossroads,” I interviewed executives and analyzed corporate climate actions and environmental performance of Global 500 and S&P 500 companies over the past decade.

These companies’ climate decisions are driven by a complex interplay of pressures from existing and future laws and the need to earn goodwill with employees, customers, investors, regulators and others.

States wield influence, too

In the U.S., state climate regulations affect multinational corporations. That’s especially true in California – the world’s fifth largest economy and the state with the largest population.

While President Donald Trump dismantles U.S. climate policies, California has moved in the opposite direction.

California’s newly enacted climate laws extend its cap-and-trade program, now called “cap and invest,” which is designed to ratchet down corporate emissions. They also lock in binding targets to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. And they set clean-power levels that rival the Europe Union’s Green Deal and outpace most national governments.

Other states have joined California in committing to meet the goals of the international Paris climate agreement as part of the U.S. Climate Alliance. The bipartisan coalition of 24 governors, from Arizona’s to Vermont’s, represents over half of the U.S. population.

Several states have been considering “polluters pay” laws. These laws would require companies to pay for their contributions to climate change, with the money going into funds for adaptation projects. Vermont and New York passed similar laws in 2024.

Climate laws still apply in Europe and elsewhere

Outside the U.S., several countries have climate regulations that multinational companies must meet.

The European Union aims to cut its emissions by at least 50% by 2030 through policies including binding climate reporting rules for large corporations and carbon taxes for goods entering the EU, along with initiatives to support innovation and competitiveness in clean energy and green infrastructure.

Companies also face emissions reporting requirements in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Singapore, California and cities like Hong Kong. Timelines for some of those laws have shifted, but they’re moving forward.

The International Court of Justice also issued a recent advisory opinion establishing that countries around the globe have a legal obligation to protect the climate. That decision may ultimately increase pressure on global businesses to reduce their contributions to climate change.

Multinationals put pressure on supply chains

Multinational companies’ efforts to reduce their climate impact puts pressure on their suppliers – meaning many more companies must take their climate impact into consideration.

For instance, U.S.-based Walmart operates over 10,000 stores across 19 countries and is the largest single buyer of goods in the world. That means it faces a wide range of regulations, including tracking and reducing emissions from its suppliers.

Given its enormous purchasing volume, Walmart’s procurement standards ripple through vast supply chains. In 2017, it launched Project Gigaton, aiming to cut 1 gigaton of supply-chain greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Suppliers including Nestle, Unilever, Coca Cola, Samsung and Hanes helped the company reach its target six years early through practical measures such as boosting energy efficiency, redesigning packaging, and reducing food waste.

Walmart did push back the deadlines for two of its more ambitious emissions reduction targets in 2025. At the same time, almost half of its electricity worldwide came from renewable energy in 2024, its emissions per unit of revenue fell, and it is working toward zero emissions from its operations by 2040.

There are profits to be made in clean tech

In addition to facing pressure from buyers and governments, companies see profits to be made from investing in climate-friendly clean technology.

Since 2016, investments in clean energy have outpaced that of fossil fuels globally. This trend has only hastened, with nearly twice as much invested in clean energy as fossil fuels in 2025.

Lately, myriad new business opportunities for multinational companies and start-ups alike have focused on meeting AI’s energy demand through clean energy.

From 2014 to 2024, the climate tech sector yielded total returns of nearly 200%, and U.S. investment in climate tech was still growing in 2025.

In the first half of 2025, close to one-fifth of the over 1,600 venture deals in climate tech were made by corporations for strategic reasons, such as technology access, supply chain integration, or future product offerings.

Companies look to the future

As climate risks grow alongside political headwinds, companies are facing both pushes toward and pulls away from protecting the planet from catastrophic effects. Oil and gas companies, for example, continue to invest in new oil and gas development. However, they also forecast renewable energy growth accelerating and are investing in clean tech.

The corporate leaders I interviewed, from tech companies like Intel to sporting goods and apparel companies like Adidas, talked about aligning sustainability efforts and initiatives across their business globally whenever possible.

This proactive approach allows them to more seamlessly collect data and respond to pressures arising domestically and globally, minimizing the need for costly patchwork efforts later. Moreover, global businesses know they will continue to face demands from their customers, investors and employees to be better stewards of the planet.

Lily Hsueh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Global companies are still committing to protect the climate – and they’re investing big money in clean tech – https://theconversation.com/global-companies-are-still-committing-to-protect-the-climate-and-theyre-investing-big-money-in-clean-tech-268761

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Soohyun Cho, Assistant Professor at the Center for Integrative Studies in the Arts & Humanities, Michigan State University

There never seems to be a shortage of good crime shows on TV, and network television is teeming with detectives who think – and act – differently.

This fall, new seasons of “Elsbeth,” “High Potential,” “Patience” and “Watson” have aired, and they all feature leads who share similar characteristics: They’re outsiders, they’re socially awkward, they can be emotionally distant, and their minds operate in unconventional ways.

In fact, they all possess traits that align with what many people now associate with neurodivergence – what scholar Nick Walker defines as “a mind that functions in ways that diverge significantly from the dominant societal standards of ‘normal.’”

As a scholar of popular culture, I’ve long been fascinated by this recurring character type – detectives who might, today, be diagnosed as having autism spectrum disorder.

While researching my forthcoming book, “The Autistic Detective,” I’ve come to realize that most detectives in popular culture – yes, even Sherlock Holmes – exhibited neurodivergent characteristics, long before the term existed.

The thin line between genius and madness

In the late 19th century, when Sherlock Holmes was created, there was widespread scientific interest in the workings of the mind, particularly the thin line between genius and madness.

British psychologist James Sully described “men of genius” as exhibiting “intellectual or moral peculiarities which are distinctly symptomatic of mental disease,” naming Edgar Allan Poe as an example of the “tragic fatefulness of geniuses.” Italian criminologist Cesare Lombroso, meanwhile, proposed that madness, genius and criminality were all closely intertwined.

Such a fascination with exceptional minds – and the idea that madness and genius are two sides of the same coin – fed into the heart of detective fiction. And although later scholars have criticized the linking of neurodivergence to pathology, violence or genius, the trope remains common in popular culture, where it’s often used to signal the exceptional mind of a detective figure.

Now, however, many fans are able to connect these characteristics to specific diagnostic labels. According to CDC data from April 2025, autism diagnoses in U.S. children have risen sharply over the past two decades – from about 1 in 150 in 1998 to roughly 1 in 31 today. This reflects not only a broadened definition of the autism spectrum but also signals greater public awareness and acceptance of neurodivergence.

That growing understanding has led to renewed interest in Holmes. From online fan forums to The New York Times, people have debated whether Holmes might be autistic, wondered whether another label would be more appropriate, or highlighted the futility of trying to diagnose a fictional character.

Super intelligence and social dysfunction

That said, it’s hard not to see some neurodivergent traits in Sherlock Holmes and other fictional detectives.

Tunnel vision, pattern recognition and attention to detail are all traits that could be exhibited by autistic people.

Holmes was fixated on minute details: One story highlighted how he authored a study on the ashes of 140 different varieties of pipe, cigar and cigarette tobacco. He had an unmatched talent for noticing overlooked details and piecing together disparate clues. And he was obsessed with forensic science.

He could also come off as cold. As Holmes declared in “The Sign of the Four,” “Emotional qualities are antagonistic to clear reasoning.”

In Edgar Allan Poe’s 1841 short story “The Murders in the Rue Morgue,” which is widely considered the first detective fiction story, the protagonist, C. Auguste Dupin, also hyperfocuses on small details, reasons through “pure logic” and is socially reclusive – all qualities displayed by Holmes.

Even Dr. Watson, Holmes’ sidekick, noticed the resemblance.

“You remind me of Edgar Allen Poe’s Dupin,” he tells Holmes in “A Study in Scarlet.” “I had no idea that such individuals did exist outside of stories.”

When Sherlock Holmes creator Arthur Conan Doyle famously killed off the detective at Reichenbach Falls in his 1893 story “The Final Problem,” there was so much public outrage that the author was eventually forced to bring him back from the dead.

These 19th-century Sherlock enthusiasts were predecessors to today’s media fandoms. Their level of devotion, unlike anything previously seen for a fictional character, was a testament to the power of Doyle’s formula: an extraordinary investigator with savantlike cognitive abilities who upholds logic over emotion, thrives in solitude and yet still depends on his companion – in Holmes’ case, Dr. Watson, who serves as an emotional counterbalance.

In the 21st century, that formula has been revived in wildly popular TV shows such as “Bones,” “Criminal Minds” and “Sherlock.”

In 2016, “Sherlock” co-creator Steven Moffat told the BBC, “Doyle began the idea that super-intelligence comes at the price of some kind of social dysfunction, something that we’ve grasped as a narrative possibility ever since.”

In other words, the more eccentric – or socially dysfunctional – a detective is, the more ingenious the hero seems.

A new era for the detective

Detective fiction might have started as a way to explore the deviant, non-normative minds of detectives and the criminals they pursued. But it has since become a space for neurodivergent self-representation.

Today, scholars, fans, reviewers and scientists openly discuss diagnostic labels for fictional characters. This surge in interest coincides with a rise in research on portrayals of autism in the media and a growing number of autistic voices examining how those portrayals shape public understanding.

Disability scholars have long warned of disabled characters being used as mere plot devices and have criticized the lack of diversity in representations of detectives who appear to be autistic on screen.

Yet many of the new shows push back against some of the stereotypes of autistic people as cold, lonely and incapable of affection. Instead, they have friends. They have romantic partners. They’re empathetic.

The series “Elsbeth” and “High Potential” center on quirky, intelligent female investigative leads who appear to be on the autism spectrum. In HBO’s 2020 miniseries “The Outsider,” detective Holly Gibney appears as one of the first Black, autistic female detectives on television.

While most of these characters aren’t explicitly identified as autistic in their shows, “Extraordinary Attorney Woo” features a female attorney whose diagnosis is openly discussed by the show’s characters.

The British-Belgian series “Patience,” meanwhile, is the first detective show to feature an explicitly autistic character played by a neurodivergent actress, Ella Maisy Purvis.

“It was really important to me that she wasn’t this kind of robotic, asexual drone,” Purvis told the Big Issue in 2025. “Patience is highly empathetic. She cares so much about her job and the people around her. It’s just expressed in a different way.”

These varied portrayals coincide with the rise of online fan communities where neurodivergent fans share what these stories mean to them. If the archetypal detective once tried to “make sense” of neurodivergent minds, today’s neurodivergent fans and creators are now having a hand in shaping them.

Perhaps most importantly, they no longer have to wonder whether they’re being represented on screen.

Soohyun Cho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The rise of the autistic detective – why neurodivergent minds are at the heart of modern mysteries – https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-the-autistic-detective-why-neurodivergent-minds-are-at-the-heart-of-modern-mysteries-267069

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Rizwan Virk, Faculty Associate, PhD Candidate in Human and Social Dimensions of Science and Technology, Arizona State University

In the most talked-about film from the final year of the 20th century, “The Matrix,” a computer hacker named Neo finds that the world he lives and works in isn’t real. It’s a virtual reality, created by artificial intelligence.

At the time, the idea seemed like science fiction. In the years since, however, that concept has become an increasingly credible theory: “the simulation hypothesis.” This theory posits that, like Neo, living things are characters inside a computer-generated simulation – or, as I describe in my 2025 book, a massively multiplayer video game. In this hypothesis, the physical world around us is actually part of a virtual reality.

Simulation theory raises the kind of questions once reserved for mystics and religious scholars: Why are we here? Is there more to reality than we can see? Is there a creator? Are we more than our physical bodies?

The science and technology may be modern, but in some ways, this hypothesis echoes ideas that faith traditions have explored for centuries.

Living in a game?

Simulation theory became popular from the work of philosopher Nick Bostrom, particularly a paper he published in 2003. The basic argument goes like this: If technology continues to improve, humans will be able to build virtual worlds indistinguishable from physical reality, and AI characters indistinguishable from biological beings. This suggests it’s possible that a more advanced civilization has already reached that point – and that we are inside one of their simulations.

Physicists, mathematicians, technologists and computer scientists have jumped into the game. Opinions span a wide range of probabilities. Columbia University astronomer David Kipping tried to evaluate the odds we live in a simulation and came up with about 50/50. Some thinkers doubt that the question is even answerable, while others think the theory is impossible – like a 2025 paper arguing that no purely algorithmic system can explain the universe.

The simulation hypothesis does not have to mean that people in the simulation are only soulless, computed AI inside someone else’s creation. In “The Matrix,” for example, even though Neo and other humans are characters inside the simulation, they also existed outside of the virtual world.

Higher intelligence

Simulation theory implies there is a greater intelligence than our own that exists beyond the physical world and may have created our universe – echoing foundational beliefs in many religious traditions. Transhumanist philosopher David Pearce, in fact, called Bostrom’s argument “the first interesting argument for the existence of a Creator in 2000 years.”

The Abrahamic religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam, for example, all worship a single creator. The biblical Book of Genesis describes God creating the world in six days, and there is a similar narrative in the Quran. According to these scriptures, God simply spoke, and it happened.

Similarly, the simulation hypothesis argues that the world was created through commands – that is, through code. Today, users of AI issue verbal prompts to automatically create realistic pictures and videos that are nearly indistinguishable from real people and landscapes.

In fact, users can even prompt AI programs to create characters that insist they aren’t virtual, as some have done in recent months – a phenomenon called “prompt theory.”

In August 2025, Google released Genie 3, which lets users create realistic-looking worlds that they can navigate through, like in a video game. In the past, these virtual worlds needed to be created by hand by teams of designers, limiting how big or complex they could be. Today, as AI advances, the idea that vast virtual worlds could be created to seem as large as our own is no longer considered such a fantasy.

Body and soul

A second way modern simulation theory echoes traditional religions is in the idea of the relationship between the soul and the body.

One version of the hypothesis – what I call the RPG, or “role-playing game,” version – suggests the simulation is like a multiplayer video game. Each character inside the game represents the external player who controls them, meaning that, in some sense, the characters exhibit free will.

The term for such a character, an “avatar,” is rooted in Sanskrit, the language of many Hindu, Buddhist and Jain texts. In Hinduism, an “avatar” refers to the incarnation of a divine being in the form of a human body.

The idea of incarnation, or a soul entering a body, is one of the most mysterious aspects of many religious traditions. Describing the development of an unborn child, the Hadith – the sayings of the Prophet Muhammad – describe a moment when “the soul is breathed into him.” The Bible, too, uses the metaphor of breath to describe incarnation: “And the LORD God formed man of the dust of the ground, and breathed into his nostrils the breath of life; and man became a living soul.”

Another common metaphor is that the soul dons the body, just as the body puts on clothing. Rumi, whose poetry often explores mystic Sufi themes, compared the body to a garment that could be taken off or changed.

A similar metaphor was used in the Bhagavad Gita, a Hindu scripture: “Just as you throw out used clothes and put on other clothes, new ones, the Self discards its used bodies and puts on others that are new.”

If we think about the soul as the player of a virtual reality game, and the body as merely their character inside who has forgotten about the outside world, then the parallels between religion and simulation theory are clear. The game may end, or the character may die, but the player continues to exist outside the game. Some religions teach that each soul can be reincarnated, having many lives – as though the player goes in and plays the game again and again, playing many different characters.

Immersed in a dream

There is also an even more fundamental way simulation theory echoes some religious teachings: the idea that the physical world is not real, or is not all there is to reality.

This is clear in the Hindu and Buddhist traditions, which describe the world being a result of “maya,” or an illusion. Often, this is expressed through the metaphor of the world being like a dream that one can awaken from. Indeed, a popular definition of the term “Buddha” is someone who has “awakened.”

The “Samadhiraja Sutra,” or “King of Samadhi Sutra,” for example, teaches:

Know all things to be like this:
A mirage, a cloud castle,
A dream, an apparition,
Without essence, but with qualities that can be seen.

Paramahansa Yogananda, a Hindu monk who died in 1952, wrote “Autobiography of a Yogi,” which introduced meditation and yoga to many in the West. Trying to explain the idea of “maya,” which is often translated as “illusion,” he compared people’s sense of physical reality to actors playing in a motion picture – relatively new technology in the 1920s, when he came from India to make his home in the United States.

As I wrote in my 2023 book about Yogananda, were the famous swami alive today, perhaps he would update the metaphor to use today’s technology: video games.

In a critical scene in “The Matrix,” Neo’s mentor, Morpheus – named after the Greek god of dreams – tells him that he has been living in a dream world. The simulation hypothesis, too, proposes that people may be living in a dream world, albeit one that is virtual, created and maintained by AI.

Perhaps the only reaction is to echo Neo and say: Whoa.

Rizwan Virk owns shares in Google, and in various video game companies. He is also a venture partner in Griffin Gaming Partners, a venture capital fund dedicated to investing in video game-related startups.

– ref. ‘Simulation theory’ brings an AI twist out of ‘The Matrix’ to ideas mystics and religious scholars have voiced for centuries – https://theconversation.com/simulation-theory-brings-an-ai-twist-out-of-the-matrix-to-ideas-mystics-and-religious-scholars-have-voiced-for-centuries-269335