Category: Academic Analysis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amalendu Misra, Professor of International Politics, Lancaster University

Crime is deeply entrenched in Mexico. The Global Organized Crime Index, a tool designed to measure levels of organised crime in a country, places Mexico third out of 193 nations in terms of criminality. At the core of Mexico’s struggle with organised crime is its network of powerful drug cartels.

The Mexican state and society have long been held hostage to the power and influence of these organisations, the most recent manifestation being the anarchy that followed the killing of Jalisco cartel leader, Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, by security forces on February 22.

His killing unleashed a wave of violent unrest. Cartel members blockaded roads and torched vehicles across various towns and cities in retaliation. And a number of inmates were sprung from a prison in the coastal city of Puerto Vallarta, prompting the authorities to urge people not to venture out.

Mexico has been following the same rulebook of engagement with the cartels for much of the past two decades, with limited success. The war on drugs that started in 2006 under the then-Mexican president, Felipe Calderón, has seen the authorities go after cartel bosses.

This has resulted in the capture of senior Sinaloa cartel figures like Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, Ovidio Guzmán López and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. It has also led to a number of high-profile killings, including Los Zetas cartel leader Heriberto Lazcano Lazcano in 2010 and now El Mencho.

As I have argued in the past, this is a futile strategy. The killing or arrest of cartel leaders rarely spells the end for an affected organisation. As El Mayo said in an interview with a Mexican news magazine called El Proceso in 2010: “As soon as capos [leaders] are locked up, killed or extradited, their replacements are already around.”

Killings and arrests can also create openings for other cartels or splinter groups to fill the vacuum left behind by the previous leadership. This often results in violent turf wars. The arrest of Sinaloa cartel leader El Chapo in 2016, for example, led to hundreds of killings within the cartel itself as well between rival cartels that continue to this day. The killing of El Mencho is likewise bound to stir the pot of violence.

Explaining cartel violence

There are several interrelated factors that contribute to the power of Mexican cartels, complicating the government’s efforts to tackle crime. Restricting cartel violence in Mexico requires overcoming criminal impunity, youth unemployment and, perhaps the most challenging problem, the complete disregard for life among cartel members.

The Mexican judiciary has long been plagued by impunity, corruption and mismanagement. The rate of impunity for violent crimes in Mexico is estimated to stand at close to 95%, while just 16% of criminal investigations in the country were resolved in 2022. According to Human Rights watch, the violence perpetrated by Mexican criminal groups is directly linked to the impunity they enjoy.

Mexico, like many other countries in Latin America, is also affected by rampant youth unemployment. Figures released by the International Labour Organization suggest the unemployment rate for young people in the region was three times higher than that of adults in 2025. And around 60% of the young people who are employed in Latin America work under informal conditions.

Mexican governments have consistently failed to produce a national strategy to address this, with the perpetually reproducing ecosystem of grinding poverty and government apathy pushing generations of underprivileged young people towards the cartels.

As various studies show in Mexico and elsewhere, those without a social security umbrella or access to opportunities to address their everyday economic needs are more likely to join criminal groups. Now, estimates of cartel membership in Mexico suggest that such groups would rank as the fourth-largest employer in the country.

Meanwhile, the Mexican authorities lack a nationwide strategy aimed at the voluntary demobilisation of cartel members and their reintegration into society. Successive governments have responded to rising violence with policies that favour military force and arrest over rehabilitation.

Weak law enforcement and a void of economic opportunities have undoubtedly contributed to the spread of cartel violence in Mexico. But the complete disregard for life among cartel members is another contributing factor. As UK-based researcher Karina García Reyes, whose work involves speaking to former cartel members, wrote in a recent article in the Spanish-language newspaper El País:

Mexico’s narcos may not blame the state or society for their condition of poverty – each is, after all, his own man – but they don’t feel remorse for their crimes, either. They had the ‘bad luck’ of being born in poverty, they told me, and their victims had the ‘bad luck’ to be in their way.

The Mexican state is taking steps to address youth unemployment and criminal impunity. Through the Plan México initiative, for example, the president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has promised to provide apprenticeships and monthly stipends to young people and boost educational infrastructure. The initiative also involves a pledge to expand university spots by 330,000 places.

However, with Mexico’s sluggish GDP growth of only 1% over the past 12 months, achieving these goals appears more difficult now than when Sheinbaum announced the plan in January 2025. And, even with these efforts, weaning criminals away from their established practice of violence will be a difficult undertaking.

Clearly, countering cartel violence in Mexico through military action has its limitations. In order to achieve greater success in addressing the problem, the government needs to undertake wholesale reforms to tackle the root causes of criminality – poverty, inequality and corruption – rather than relying solely on force to silence criminals.

Until then, Mexico will remain hostage to cycles of violence at the hands of its cartels.

Amalendu Misra is a recipient of British Academy and Nuffield Foundation Fellowships.

– ref. Mexico is losing its battle with the cartels after years of flawed strategy – https://theconversation.com/mexico-is-losing-its-battle-with-the-cartels-after-years-of-flawed-strategy-277104

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lucy Core, Postdoctoral Researcher in the Brain Behaviour Group, UCL

When people hear the word dementia, they often think of someone who has problems with memory. While memory is often affected in dementia, this is not always the case. There are many different types of dementia – and each can produce a wide range of symptoms.

A recent case study has even described a 68-year-old man with a rare form of dementia that caused him to develop a fascination with a very specific type of noise. As this type of dementia has only been recently recognised by medical experts, this finding suggests that changes in preferences for sounds may be a key feature of the syndrome.

Dementia is an umbrella term to describe cognitive (thinking) problems that are severe enough to affect everyday life. There are many types of dementia – such as Alzheimer’s disease, which is the most common form. It is characterised by memory loss and other cognitive changes.

Another subtype is frontotemporal dementia, which tends to affect people before age 65.

As the name suggests, frontotemporal dementia affects brain regions in the frontal and temporal lobes, which sit behind the forehead and above the ears. These areas of the brain are involved in a wide range of functions – including personality, behaviour, problem solving, planning, language, processing and understanding sounds. This form of dementia mainly affects behaviour or language abilities.

There are three main variants of frontotemporal dementia, each of which have differing symptoms: the behavioural variant (affecting behaviour and personality), the non-fluent variant (affecting speech production) and the semantic variant (affecting knowledge and understanding speech).

But some researchers believe there’s a fourth variant of frontotemporal dementia, as well. Evidence for this fourth variant was described in a case study I helped conduct.

A 68-year-old man, who we called “CP”, developed an unusual love for Spitfire engine noises. CP’s wife first noticed this strange behaviour about two years before he was diagnosed with dementia.

CP lived near an airfield, and veteran aircraft would frequently fly over his home. He would drop whatever he was doing and run outside, waving at the planes and crying tears of joy whenever he heard them. He had never reacted this way before the onset of his condition.

His love for engine noises was very specific to this type of plane. He did not react the same way to the sound of other planes, nor show a general interest in aircraft or vehicles. He also found birdsong and people with high-pitched voices irritating. He even became very particular about music, disliking covers and preferring originals.

A few years before his sudden love for Spitfire noises began, CP became moody and short-tempered. He became increasingly cold and apathetic towards others and lacked impulse control and awareness of socially acceptable behaviour. For instance, he was indifferent to a death in the family and frequently interrupted other people when they were speaking – things he would have never done before his disease.

He also lost understanding of humour, developed a sweet tooth and became fixated on playing chess and doing word searches. He sometimes failed to recognise the faces of acquaintances but did not have problems recognising people’s voices over the telephone. CP did not show any problems with remembering previous events or language.

About five years after symptoms emerged, CP was diagnosed with behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia. But we believe CP had a newer, fourth variant – sometimes referred to as the “right temporal variant”.

This variant was given its name because most of the tissue loss occurs in the right temporal lobe of the brain. This brain area is mainly involved in understanding concepts and deriving meaning from nonverbal information, such as social cues. Scans of CP’s brain showed that large portions of this region were missing.

The right temporal variant of frontotemporal dementia also appears to cause a mix of symptoms typically seen in both the behavioural and semantic variants. However, there’s still debate within the research community over how to define it.

Learning about dementia

There’s a lot that can be learned from CP.

First, his story helps spread awareness of frontotemporal dementia. Lack of awareness is a major issue – even among doctors, as it’s commonly misdiagnosed as other psychiatric illnesses or Alzheimer’s disease.

CP’s story also helps to clarify the right temporal variant of frontotemporal dementia. His symptoms suggest that the development of new fixations may be a defining feature of the syndrome.

CP’s case is also an example of how dementia can cause changes in how people process sounds.

A link between hearing impairment and dementia is already well established. However, the nature of this relationship is unclear.

Although it has been widely claimed in the media that hearing loss causes dementia, it might also be the other way around – that dementia causes hearing changes. CP’s story provides evidence of this, as his abnormal love for specific noises only occurred after disease onset.

Alzheimer’s disease research also supports the idea of dementia causing hearing changes. For instance, impairments in auditory scene analysis – the ability to separate overlapping sounds, such as listening to one speaker among background noise – has emerged as a common symptom.

CP’s story also demonstrates how dementia can change what people find pleasurable as well as their emotions. Intense obsessions, aversions and changes in preferences (such as suddenly loving or hating certain foods, music or colours) have been widely reported in frontotemporal dementia.

I had the pleasure of meeting CP and his wife and learning about their dementia journey first-hand. CP’s story illustrates how important it is to recognise the variety of symptoms in dementia. This will in turn help lead to earlier diagnosis and the development of tailored interventions.

Lucy Core was supported by the UCL Research Excellence Scholarship while the case study was conducted and received funding from the Royal National Institute of the Deaf while preparing this article.

– ref. The man who fell in love with the sound of Spitfires – here’s what this unusual symptom can teach us about dementia – https://theconversation.com/the-man-who-fell-in-love-with-the-sound-of-spitfires-heres-what-this-unusual-symptom-can-teach-us-about-dementia-275107

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nektarios Tzempelikos, Professor of Marketing and Deputy Director of the Research Centre for Intelligent Supply Chains, School of Management, Anglia Ruskin University

A selling point of hotels has traditionally been the standardised service offered by their trained staff. In contrast, “peer-to-peer” accommodation – of which Airbnb is the most popular host platform – is usually run more informally by individual hosts who have little if any formal hospitality training.

What they offer instead is personal interaction, a sense of authenticity, and local knowledge about the area. And our multi-year research shows that this is often rated much more highly by visiting guests.

Our study (with colleagues), recently published in the International Journal of Hospitality Management, investigates the key reasons international guests staying all over India – one of the world’s fastest growing tourist markets – give their Airbnb accommodation a five-star review, or rather less.

One clear pattern was how guests talked about their relationship with hosts. Many appreciated meeting friendly, helpful hosts – but only when contact felt optional. Our survey and interview findings showed around one-third of guests said they were uncomfortable when communication felt too frequent or too personal.

This points to an important tension in Airbnb stays. Guests often want reassurance without intrusion. A takeaway recommendation was the importance of short, polite messages that reassure guests help is available if needed – but not excessive contact. Feeling welcome is less about ongoing interaction and more about responsiveness, clarity and respect for boundaries.

Our study began in 2019 by developing a new way of analysing thousands of Airbnb guest reviews in India to understand the key indicators of satisfaction (and dissatisfaction). After being interrupted by COVID, we followed this up with surveys and in-depth interviews in the same country to establish the priorities guests give to different aspects of how they were hosted.

Some guests also talked about experiences that stood out for the wrong reasons. These were not “horror stories”, but moments where boundaries felt unclear – such as hosts dropping by unexpectedly, asking too many personal questions, or being slow to respond when something went wrong.

Expectations also played a big role in how stays were judged. Guests who felt well-informed before arrival – about the space, the rules and the neighbourhood – tended to be more relaxed and forgiving of small issues. By contrast, even minor surprises could negatively affect how the entire experience was remembered.

These patterns became stronger after COVID. Guests became more sensitive to cleanliness, safety and communication, and many preferred less face-to-face contact than before.

With all this in mind, here are five practical ways our research suggests hosts can increase their prospects of a five-star rating – and a return stay.

1. Tell guests what to expect – truthfully

Frustrations sometimes start building before they have even arrived. Many guests, particularly from other countries, rely on clear, practical information to feel confident about their choice.

Hosts should make sure their listing answers all common questions upfront and truthfully: how check-in works, what the neighbourhood is like, whether the space suits families or remote work, and what amenities are (and are not!) available.

Small gaps between what guests expect and what they find can shape how they judge their entire stay. Guests who feel well informed are less likely to focus on minor issues.

2. Comfort counts, not just appearance

Good photos matter, but guests judge accommodation on how it feels to actually stay there. We found features such as comfortable furniture, a calm atmosphere and a sense of privacy strongly influence how enjoyable a stay feels.

Hosts do not need to make expensive upgrades. But paying attention to lighting, noise, clutter and basic comfort is non-negotiable.

3. Be responsive, but don’t overdo it

Guests value personal interaction in different ways, but they consistently appreciate hosts who are reliable and easy to reach. Yet feeling welcome does not require constant communication.

Simple actions matter: replying promptly to messages, giving clear instructions, and dealing calmly with problems when they arise. We found this sense of feeling “looked after” is closely linked to whether guests want to return.

4. Anticipate small issues before they snowball

It’s notable how often small problems can snowball during a stay. Issues such as non-working equipment are usually forgotten if clearly explained and calmly dealt with. But slow responses to concerns – or worse, displays of frustration or anger from hosts – can quickly affect how a stay is judged.

Anticipating common issues and dealing with them early can prevent small problems from overshadowing the guest experience. Clear house information, well-maintained facilities and simple backup plans all help.

5. Focus on return visits, not ratings

Positive reviews matter, but they do not tell the whole story. In our research, the most important indicator of guest satisfaction was whether they said they wanted to return.

While enjoyment and value are closely linked with recommendations, feeling comfortable and welcome plays a stronger role in repeat bookings. Creating a space that is easy to use, pleasant to stay in and welcoming will encourage guests to come back, even in a crowded market.

Small, thoughtful choices in these areas shape how guests remember their visit. Hosts who want long-term success should think beyond ratings and consider whether guests will genuinely want to return.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What makes the ideal Airbnb host? We studied guest experiences to find out – https://theconversation.com/what-makes-the-ideal-airbnb-host-we-studied-guest-experiences-to-find-out-276844

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lewis Mattin, Senior Lecturer, Life Sciences, University of Westminster

Hunger is often discussed as a matter of willpower. In appetite research, it looks very different. Physiologists who study eating behaviour and metabolism see hunger as a fluctuating biological signal shaped by hormones, digestion, activity and environment. The recent surge of interest in GLP-1 drugs has brought one part of this system into public view.

GLP-1, or glucagon-like peptide-1, is a hormone produced naturally in the gut and plays a key role in controlling blood sugar, appetite and digestion. After eating, it helps signal fullness and slows the rate at which food leaves the stomach, shaping how quickly nutrients enter the bloodstream and how much energy the body takes in.

Appetite regulation begins in the gut rather than the brain alone. Signals from digestion, microbes and nutrient absorption activate hormonal pathways that travel to the brain through the bloodstream and nervous system.

Hunger is shaped by several of these signals. Ghrelin, released from the stomach, stimulates appetite. After food is eaten, levels of GLP-1 typically rise, helping signal satiety. Research shows appetite is closely linked to this increase in GLP-1 and how it communicates with brain regions involved in regulating eating.

Drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro are known as GLP-1 receptor agonists. They were originally developed for diabetes treatment and have been used to treat Type 2 diabetes since 2025. More recently, they have been prescribed for obesity management.

These medications activate the same biological pathways as natural GLP-1, but for much longer. Under normal conditions, GLP-1 rises for a relatively short period after eating, typically around two hours. This post-meal phase is when appetite is naturally suppressed and digestion slows. GLP-1 medications extend that state. Rather than simply blocking hunger, they maintain a physiological signal associated with having recently eaten.

This helps explain their impact. By reducing appetite and slowing gastric emptying, they can support sustained weight loss. But they also highlight how dynamic appetite is.

Research in exercise and nutrition shows that hunger does not increase in a simple, linear way with energy expenditure. Intense physical activity can temporarily suppress appetite through shifts in gut hormones, including GLP-1, even as energy needs rise.

Appetite often returns later as the body re-balances. In some cases, particularly after sessions such as high intensity intermittent training (HIIT), cravings for food can increase substantially.

Typically, weight loss of up to 5 to 8% can be achieved with a GLP-1 receptor agonist, although outcomes vary and tend to occur gradually over months. Medical advice should always be sought before starting treatment, and nutritional strategies should be discussed with a dietician or qualified nutritionist.

The rise of these medications has also reshaped how obesity is understood. For decades, weight was often framed primarily in terms of personal responsibility. GLP-1 therapies instead highlight the biological regulation of appetite and metabolism. They shift attention toward physiology and the gut-brain axis, rather than willpower alone, and have influenced public conversations about stigma, treatment access and the medicalisation of weight management.

Yet appetite reduction does not remove the body’s need for nutrients and fluids. When food intake falls, the challenge becomes maintaining nutritional balance. Hydration remains essential, as the body can lose around 2 to 3 litres of fluid each day through urine, sweat, breathing and bowel movements. Replacing this fluid supports circulation, temperature regulation and organ function. Hydration therefore remains fundamental even when appetite is reduced.

Read more:
Weight loss drugs make it harder to get the nutrients you need – here’s what to do about it

Electrolytes also play a central role in nerve activity, muscle contraction and fluid balance. These charged minerals, including sodium, potassium, chloride, magnesium and calcium, are present in everyday foods and drinks, but reduced intake can lower overall levels.

Maintaining muscle mass is another consideration. When calorie intake drops substantially, the body may begin to break down muscle tissue for energy. Preserving muscle supports metabolic health and physical function. Protein intake of around 1.2 g per kg of body weight per day is often recommended, with sources including eggs, dairy, legumes, tofu and lean meats.

Changes in eating patterns can also affect digestion. Reduced food intake increases the likelihood of constipation, particularly if fibre consumption falls. Foods that are high in fibre help maintain bowel health by supporting regular movement and gut function.

Like most medications, GLP-1 drugs can have side effects. These may include nausea, abdominal discomfort, fatigue, bloating, constipation or diarrhoea. In some cases, there may be muscle loss and gallbladder problems. Ongoing monitoring is therefore important.

Another key question is what happens when treatment stops. Research suggests weight regain is common once medication is discontinued. When the prolonged satiety signal is removed, appetite-regulating hormones return to previous patterns. The biological drive to regain lost weight can re-emerge, highlighting that these drugs modify appetite while they are taken but do not permanently reset the systems that regulate it.

The wider implications extend beyond individual treatment. Appetite is influenced by multiple factors, including gut hormones, microbiome activity, physical activity, circadian rhythms and metabolic health. GLP-1 therapies interact with this wider system rather than replacing it. They also raise questions about long-term use, access and how food environments might respond to widespread appetite suppression.

From a physiological perspective, the significance of GLP-1 medications lies not only in their clinical effects but in what they reveal. Hunger is not a fixed trait. It is a fluctuating signal shaped by gut-derived hormones, digestion, activity and environment. These drugs amplify one part of that system by extending the post-meal state, but they do not replace the broader mechanisms that govern appetite, nutrition and metabolism.

Weight management therefore remains embedded in a wider biological and social context. Hormones matter, but so do daily routines, physical activity, food availability and long-term health patterns. GLP-1 therapies highlight how strongly biology shapes hunger, while also underscoring how complex and interconnected appetite regulation really is.

Lewis Mattin is affiliated with The Physiological Society, The Society for Endocrinology, UKRI funded Ageing and Nutrient Sensing Network, BBSRC UK GIBA network & SENr-Academic Associate Registration

– ref. What weight loss jabs teach us about how appetite works – https://theconversation.com/what-weight-loss-jabs-teach-us-about-how-appetite-works-276105

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Nekaris, Professor of Ecology, Conservation and Environment, Anglia Ruskin University

The moment a cage door is opened and an animal released is often seen as the ultimate good news. When a captive wild animal is freed, the media often applauds, public support swells and donations to welfare charities surge.

But as a new study by myself and colleagues reveals, there is a dark side to returning animals to the wild.

Illegal trafficking in wildlife yields billions of dollars per year, making it one of the highest grossing illegal trades. It poses a serious risk to conservation, so it’s no wonder the confiscation of an illegally trafficked animal feels like a win.

One of the problems is that for many species, especially smaller species perceived as less charismatic, or less ecologically important, little is known what happens after the animal is set “free”.

In our new study published in Global Ecology and Conservation, my colleagues and I tracked nine individual animals of the endangered Bengal slow loris, a small primate with large round brown eyes found in tropical forests throughout southern Asia. We showed that the wild is not necessarily freedom. Seven of the nine animals died within weeks of release, most killed by resident slow lorises.

Ten species of the slow loris can be found from India to the Philippines. All are threatened by trade in various guises – including as pets and tourist photo props, traditional “medicines” and meat, and even black magic.

Despite being legally protected in all the countries where they live, trade in these nocturnal primates persists locally and internationally. It is fuelled in part by viral social media videos of smuggled lorises kept as pets. With their large eyes and teddy bear-like faces, they are seen as an adorable companion, with online videos inciting viewers to “want one”. They certainly do not make good pets – from scent marking every space with foul-smelling urine, to a bite that can kill a human.

Indeed, they are the only venomous primate, with sharp teeth used to inject venom into other lorises as a means of territorial defence. Often in trade these teeth are ripped out or clipped to make them “suitable pets”.

Despite the evolutionary uniqueness of the slow loris, only a handful of studies have been conducted in the wild. This creates a disconnect.

Welfare agencies and government agents are often pressured to release these primates to the wild. But a lack of funding, manpower and knowledge of their behaviour means most reintroductions of loris species do not follow international guidelines. For example, agencies must know which species they are releasing; slow loris species may look very similar but they are genetically and behaviourally unique. It’s almost impossible for non-experts to tell them apart.

Freedom or death trap?

In our study, the Bangladesh Forest Department allowed us to follow the fate of nine released Bengal slow lorises. The site, Lawachara National Park in the country’s northeast, has been used for relocating lorises for decades. With a high density of slow lorises in the area, conservationists recommend against more releases. A variety of sociopolitical and logistic factors, however, means that releases continue. For example, the fact that these releases are seen as good news stories.

Within ten days of release, three lorises died, with four others surviving only a few weeks more. For four of seven whose bodies could be examined, all died of fatal venomous bite wounds from resident lorises.

After eight months of study, the two survivors had not settled into a permanent area. Wild slow loris typically achieve this within a few months of dispersal, settling with a mate to raise families with for at least 12 years.

This suggests that even if an animal survives “getting back to the wild”, they may still struggle to find a permanent home. A species with extremely territorial behaviour, these “floating” individuals are often killed by resident slow lorises.

In Bangladesh, slow lorises are often “rescued” from agricultural areas, where they can live happily if the right food plants persist, because locals are not familiar with nocturnal animals and think they have “wandered in”. Thus, the forest that people perceive as a good place for them is alien, and one in which ultimately, returned lorises may never be able to find a home.

Other studies also have found high death rates or lack of “settling” of released slow lorises. Projects in Vietnam and Java have yielded similar results, including reintroduced lorises killing the resident animals, as well as animals starving to death in the new habitats.

Poor release practices have become so common that the IUCN Red List includes releases of slow lorises as one of the threats to their survival. Despite this increasing evidence, incidences of up to 65 lorises released at a single time are sometimes reported as good news.

Slow lorises are just one of many lesser-known mammals frequently traded and released. These animals are easy to pick up and hold because their strategy is sometimes to curl into a silent ball of terror, instead of biting. They may even be bought by tourists at wildlife markets and placed somewhere where the purchaser perceives to be wild.

Other examples include civets, otters and various monkeys. Indeed, in the case of Brazil’s marmosets, monkeys released by pet owners threaten to out-compete native species or mate with them, leading to hyrid offspring.

This scenario is not exclusive to the tropics. In the UK, well meaning people often move hedgehogs and other animals long distances away from where they found them. However hedgehogs are homebodies who need to stay close to their favourite haunts, where they know where to find shelter and food.

As appealing as it is to put animals back to the wild, for many species, their only hope may truly be a lifetime in captivity. Even when these animals survive, their ecological role is lost.

Anna Nekaris receives funding from Plumploris e.V.

– ref. Freeing poached wildlife ‘safely’ is a dangerous myth – new study – https://theconversation.com/freeing-poached-wildlife-safely-is-a-dangerous-myth-new-study-275586

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Louise Thompson, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Manchester

Thursday’s byelection in Gorton and Denton has been huge for the Green party of England and Wales, with Hannah Spencer pushing Reform’s Matt Goodwin into second place, and Labour into third. Having one extra MP in parliament may not seem like a big milestone, but this byelection win is record-breaking for the Greens. I believe it shows their potential to be a credible alternative to Labour.

The Greens have never won a byelection before. They polled less than 7% of the vote (coming in fourth place) in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection in May 2025. And, unlike Reform UK in that byelection, the Greens didn’t just edge this victory – they took nearly 41% of the vote. That’s a whopping 28-point increase on their performance in the same constituency at the 2024 general election.

Read more:
Victory in Gorton and Denton is historic for the Greens – and cataclysmic for Britain’s two-party politics

The victory has given party leader Zack Polanski the confidence that voters now see the Greens as a viable alternative to Labour, even in former Labour strongholds. He announced to supporters, “this is what replacing Labour looks like”.

Over the past few years the Greens have really professionalised their party. We saw the impact of this in the 2024 general election, when they quadrupled their number of MPs and finished second in 40 constituencies.

Under Polanski’s leadership, they’ve developed a more populist edge, focusing on issues such as the cost of living and moving away from being “just” a climate party. They’ve also had a more visible media presence and started to take their communication strategy more seriously.

Spencer’s win increases the size of the Green parliamentary group to five MPs. In the context of a 650-member House of Commons, this doesn’t seem like much.

The Greens certainly aren’t large enough to swing any votes, or cause the government many problems. And although they now have more MPs than ever before, they are still only the sixth-largest party group in the Commons. There are still over twice as many independent MPs as there are Greens.

The win will, however, give the Greens some breathing space. It’s a tough job being a small party in the Commons, and the existing group of four Green MPs have shared a heavy burden of responsibilities in the chamber since their arrival in 2024. As Spencer finds her feet, she will be able to take on some of these policy portfolio responsibilities.

Having a bigger parliamentary team doesn’t just alleviate some of the pressure to be in the chamber all the time. It also allows the party to be more strategic, and to insert Green voices into more conversations than before.

This could be through places on committees scrutinising legislation, trying to catch the speaker’s eye during high-profile government statements and question times, or holding backbench debates on more local issues. There is no place for passengers in any small party, so we can expect to see Spencer playing a very visible role for the rest of the parliament.

The battle ahead

When the next general election draws closer, the Greens may be grateful of this bigger team. They will want to capitalise on their success in Manchester and continue to professionalise their operations as a national party.

They are also likely to face more hostility at Westminster. Labour is now fighting a war on two fronts. The party’s embarrassing third-place result in Gorton and Denton – which Keir Starmer called “very disappointing” – will have hammered this home. We can expect to see more attacks on the Greens, including in the Commons chamber.

Until now, the prime minister has focused much more consistent attention on discrediting Reform. Now, he needs to worry much more about Polanski and the Greens, and will be directing some focus to winning back Labour voters who see the Greens as the stronger party of the left.

We had a glimpse of this in January, when North Herefordshire’s Ellie Chowns used her occasional opportunity to question the prime minister to ask about water pollution. Starmer turned it into a partisan attack on the unrelated topic of Polanski’s comments about Nato.

While the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, regularly berates Starmer in the Commons, the Greens rarely take such an overtly partisan approach. Reform MPs tend to participate more frequently in high-profile parliamentary occasions, where they can question the government. The Greens tend to have a more balanced, policy-focused approach, regularly popping up on committees to scrutinise legislation.

This is helped by Polanski’s position as a leader who sits outside the Commons (a member of the London Assembly). He can delegate the scrutiny of government policy to Chowns and her colleagues, while he takes broader comments about the government’s performance directly to the press.

This balance will be important as the Greens think about the upcoming local elections. Spencer told the press today that the party can now “win anywhere”, and Polanski predicted a “tidal wave” of Green MPs at the next election.

To do this, they need to maintain the momentum they’ve created this week. This means keeping a tight hold of the former Labour voters who chose them instead in Gorton and Denton.

It will be difficult for the party to carry out the same intensive campaign strategy on a more national level, but this sort of intensity is key to ensuring that the left vote goes to the Greens rather than to the other alternatives. Having more party members than ever before will help with this, but they will need to rely on their on-the-ground campaigners to feel secure.

Louise Thompson receives funding from the ESRC ES/R005915/2

– ref. What Hannah Spencer’s historic win means for the Green party’s future – https://theconversation.com/what-hannah-spencers-historic-win-means-for-the-green-partys-future-277114