Le prédateur et les proies : ce que l’étude des animaux nous apprend sur les climats toxiques au travail

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Jean Poitras, Professeur titulaire en gestion de conflits, HEC Montréal

Les tensions interpersonnelles entre collègues ont un coût important pour les entreprises : elles grugent la concentration, minent la collaboration et détournent une partie massive de l’énergie mentale vers la défense plutôt que vers le travail. Les écologistes ont observé comment les animaux gèrent la peur, la menace et la cohabitation avec les prédateurs dans un écosystème. Ils ont ainsi mis au jour des mécanismes surprenants qui éclairent nos propres réactions au sein des équipes de travail.


Dans la nature, un constat surprenant s’est imposé : les prédateurs contrôlent la population des proies non seulement en les mangeant, mais par la peur qu’ils instaurent. En effet, cette peur chronique force les proies à investir une quantité immense d’énergie dans la vigilance et l’évitement, plutôt que dans l’alimentation ou la reproduction. Autrement dit, ce n’est pas la prédation elle-même qui limite la croissance des proies, mais l’anticipation constante de ce qui pourrait leur arriver.

Un phénomène très similaire apparaît dans les groupes humains confrontés à de l’incivilité chronique. Lorsqu’un membre du groupe adopte parfois des comportements agressifs, les collègues vivent dans un climat d’incertitude relationnelle. Leur cerveau interprète celle-ci comme un risque social potentiel. L’énergie du groupe se détourne alors du travail vers la protection. Ce n’est donc pas tant le conflit qui épuise une équipe, mais l’énergie qu’elle dépense à l’anticiper et à l’éviter.

Les stratégies des proies

Les proies utilisent trois stratégies pour survivre à cette pression, que l’on retrouve aussi dans les groupes humains.

La première consiste à synchroniser leurs comportements avec le danger. Si le prédateur est actif à certaines heures ou dans certains lieux, les proies ajustent leurs déplacements et leurs activités. En milieu de travail, on observe des adaptations similaires : les employés évitent certaines réunions ou réduisent leurs interactions avec certaines personnes.

Avec la deuxième stratégie, les proies se retirent dans des zones où la menace est plus faible afin de faire baisser leur niveau de vigilance. Dans les organisations, ce refuge peut prendre la forme du retrait des interactions sociales ou du repli sur des tâches plus solitaires. Aujourd’hui, on pourrait penser que le télétravail devient un outil d’évitement dans certains cas. Ce n’est pas du désengagement : c’est une manière de réguler le coût psychologique du danger.




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Les réseaux sociaux vous incitent à adopter ces trois comportements primitifs et violents


La troisième stratégie est la protection collective. Les proies se regroupent en troupeaux de manière à partager la surveillance et le risque. Dans les équipes humaines, ce phénomène peut se traduire par la formation d’alliances informelles ou de sous-groupes qui cherchent à réduire ensemble le stress par le soutien collectif.

Réguler l’incivilité

Ces réactions sont compréhensibles, mais elles ont un coût pour l’organisation. L’énergie se déplace vers la gestion du risque social plutôt que vers la tâche. Autrement dit, ce n’est pas seulement l’incivilité qui pose problème, mais une dynamique collective qui perturbe le fonctionnement du groupe. C’est pourquoi la régulation de l’incivilité doit être pensée à l’échelle du groupe et devenir proactive plutôt que réactive.

Un gestionnaire peut contrôler certains comportements, mais il ne peut pas imposer la civilité à lui seul. La stratégie la plus efficace consiste généralement à organiser une consolidation d’équipe, c’est-à-dire une discussion structurée sur le fonctionnement du groupe et la qualité des relations.




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Le commérage de bureau : un moyen précieux – mais risqué – de nouer des relations


L’un des premiers objectifs est de créer une stabilité dans les échanges collectifs. Il s’agit d’un espace de discussion où la réactivité est suspendue, où l’on parle des enjeux plutôt que de formuler des reproches, et où l’intensité émotionnelle peut redescendre avant qu’elle ne s’envenime. La sécurité psychologique n’élimine pas les conflits, mais elle crée les conditions nécessaires pour les affronter de manière constructive.

En effet, l’incivilité au travail amène les employés à anticiper et éviter certaines interactions, ce qui augmente la charge cognitive et le stress. Structurer les rencontres et clarifier les règles de discussion peut alors réduire cette incertitude et la vigilance associée. Structurer les rencontres, clarifier les règles de discussion et expliciter les critères de décision réduit immédiatement la charge de vigilance.


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Interroger les normes du groupe

Pour ce faire, le groupe doit identifier les sources de l’incivilité. Les comportements problématiques peuvent être liés à des facteurs organisationnels tels que des exigences de travail élevées, un manque de soutien entre collègues, une insécurité d’emploi ou des changements organisationnels. La bonne volonté seule est rarement suffisante : il faut parfois corriger des irritants structurels ou ajuster la manière dont le travail est organisé.

Il ne suffit pas de dire que le climat est difficile : le groupe doit identifier les habitudes qui rendent probable l’incivilité. Comment le groupe contribue, souvent malgré lui, à créer un climat perpétuant l’incivilité ? Quand personne ne réagit à l’incivilité, ne donne-t-on pas carte blanche à ce type de comportement ?




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Dans une perspective inspirée de l’écologie des comportements sociaux, l’enjeu central concerne la régulation des normes du groupe. Dans plusieurs équipes, les comportements incivils persistent parce que les individus hésitent à intervenir seuls, le fait de sanctionner étant coûteux et exposant à des risques. La personne qui intervient assume ainsi des coûts sociaux et émotionnels importants, notamment en raison des réactions défensives ou des représailles possibles. Lorsque personne ne prend ce rôle, les comportements opportunistes tendent à se multiplier, ce qui fragilise la coopération et les normes collectives.

On peut ainsi imaginer qu’en contexte organisationnel, une personne en position d’autorité tente d’assumer seule ce rôle de régulation. Toutefois, en l’absence de soutien du groupe, le coût associé à cette intervention devient difficile à maintenir, ce qui peut l’amener progressivement à se délester de cette responsabilité.

La solution n’est donc pas d’augmenter la surveillance, mais de partager le coût de la régulation. Soutenir visiblement la personne qui intervient change immédiatement la dynamique. Un simple appui – « il a raison », « merci de l’avoir dit », « on est d’accord » – peut transformer une intervention individuelle en régulation collective. Il est souvent utile de formaliser les engagements du groupe dans un code de vie ou une charte de collégialité, puis de prévoir des rencontres de suivi pour vérifier si les résolutions tiennent dans le temps.

En somme, un groupe ne peut dépendre que de la bonne volonté de ses membres pour modérer l’incivilité. Il doit viser le partage du coût de la défense de ses normes. Comme dans les écosystèmes naturels, la stabilité d’un système repose moins sur la disparition du danger que sur la capacité collective à en réguler la prévalence et les effets.

La Conversation Canada

Jean Poitras ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Le prédateur et les proies : ce que l’étude des animaux nous apprend sur les climats toxiques au travail – https://theconversation.com/le-predateur-et-les-proies-ce-que-letude-des-animaux-nous-apprend-sur-les-climats-toxiques-au-travail-278162

Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia emerge as a new regional power bloc amid Iran war

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex

Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, announced that a two-week ceasefire had been agreed between the US and Iran in the early hours of April 8. Delegates from both sides are expected to attend further talks in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad on Friday.

This comes less than two weeks after Pakistan hosted talks with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey in which the four countries called for an end to hostilities in the Gulf. The meeting established the quartet as the primary negotiating channel between Tehran and Washington, and may signal the beginning of a new regional order designed to curb Israeli and Iranian dominance after the war.

Even before the war began in late February, Israel and Iran were both isolated in the region. There is no chance of any rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which was the original goal of the 2020 Abraham accords. These accords sought to normalise relations between Israel and other countries in the Middle East.

The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed agreements with Israel as part of the accords. But the Saudis have long said they will not normalise ties with Israel before the establishment of a Palestinian state, which was ruled out by the Israeli parliament in a 2024 vote. Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia now wants to replace Israel with Syria as the transit country for a fiber-optic cable connecting the kingdom to Greece.

Turkey also halted its relationship with Israel in 2024 over the conflict in Gaza. And relations between Israel and Qatar soured in September 2025 after an Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, which drew unanimous condemnation from the UN security council.

Iran’s only main allies are Russia and, to a much lesser extent, China and the Houthi rebel group in Yemen. Since the conflict with the US and Israel began, China has distanced itself from Iran. The Houthis recently became involved in the war in support of Iran, but they have been weakened by Israeli attacks in recent years.

The solid relationship between Qatar and Iran has been severed after Iranian missiles struck the country’s main gas facility, Ras Laffan, on March 18. And Iran’s partial detente with Saudi Arabia, which was brokered by China in 2023 after years of hostility, has now been destroyed following Iranian attacks on Saudi energy facilities.

It is against this backdrop, in which both Iran and Israel are considered regional pariahs, that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt have ramped up their efforts to secure stability in the Middle East.

A new order?

These four countries share some common areas of interest that help explain their desire to reshape the region. They all have political and economic ties with the US and are members of Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. Established in 2026, the board aims to tackle global conflicts and achieve lasting peace and reconstruction in Gaza.

Each country also brings important contributions to their burgeoning alliance. Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia has the world’s second-largest oil reserves, Egypt controls access to the vital Suez canal waterway and Turkey is a member of the Nato alliance. All have fairly advanced defence industries and a combined population of 500 million people. Taken together, they represent the most politically and militarily influential Muslim-majority countries in the world.

But these four nations are not necessarily natural allies, and their relationships have experienced turbulence over the years. Egypt’s relationship with Saudi Arabia, for example, has often been described as a “difficult marriage”. Egypt was once the driver of pan-Arab nationalism, a movement that promotes a secular and unified Arab political identity.

The Saudi kingdom has historically viewed this movement as a threat. But since Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power as Egypt’s president in 2014, their differences have been overcome. Sisi offered political and military support to the Saudi operation against the Houthis in 2015, with Egypt and Saudi Arabia subsequently deepening their defence ties.

Particularly under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has positioned itself as a regional leader and problem solver. But Turkey, too, has endured periods of frosty relations with other regional powers. Ankara’s relations with Cairo deteriorated sharply after the Egyptian president, Mohammed Morsi, a close ally of Turkey, was ousted in a 2013 coup.

Similarly, tensions between Turkey and Saudi Arabia became particularly acute following the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. A 2021 US intelligence report found that Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman approved the murder, though he denies this allegation.

A process of rapprochement took place between Turkey and Saudi Arabia in 2022, and then between Turkey and Egypt in 2025. Erdoğan visited Cairo and Riyadh in February 2026 and has proposed several different geoeconomic frameworks to connect Asia with Europe. These include the so-called Middle East Corridor, a planned economic corridor aimed at fostering economic integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe.

Pakistan, meanwhile, has so far not come to Saudi Arabia’s aid when it has come under attack from Iran in the current conflict. This is despite the signing of a strategic mutual defence agreement between the two countries in 2025.

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey have not always seen eye to eye. But their relationships of convenience are now becoming increasingly significant as Israel and Iran’s regional isolation grows.

The Conversation

Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia emerge as a new regional power bloc amid Iran war – https://theconversation.com/pakistan-turkey-egypt-and-saudi-arabia-emerge-as-a-new-regional-power-bloc-amid-iran-war-279782

Mutual aid and self-sufficiency are key to life near USSR’s contaminated nuclear test zone in Kazakhstan

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Magdalena Stawkowski, Associate Professor of Anthropology, University of South Carolina

Four decades of tests had a total explosive yield of 2,500 Hiroshimas. Magdalena Stawkowski

About a year into my field research in Kazakhstan, I went to the city of Kurchatov, once the secret command center of the Soviet nuclear program, to make some photocopies. On the ground floor of an apartment building I found a store whose owner had a copy machine as well as several glass display cases selling souvenir stickers, magnets and other objects featuring hammers and sickles, stars and mushroom clouds.

pin with yellow background with black and white Cyrillic script
‘I am a radioactive mutant.’
Magdalena Stawkowski

These kinds of trinkets were not particularly surprising to me. You can find them in many places. But a bright yellow button about the size of my palm stopped me in my tracks: “I am a radioactive mutant” (“Ya radioaktivnyy mutant”), read its simple message.

I laughed to myself, thinking that the button was meant to be funny, that a tourist would buy it to wear ironically and tell stories about having been near a nuclear test site.

But the button’s message is also true for the thousands of people who live in this area. Residents actually say, “I am a mutant,” when they talk about their bodies, their family histories and their radioactive environment.

As a cultural-medical anthropologist, I study health and illness as life experiences. I’ve spent many months in villages around the Soviet-era Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan, known locally as the Polygon.

In my book “Atomic Collective: Radioactive Life in Kazakhstan,” I explore how the people here have created new forms of mutual aid and camaraderie in the shadow of nuclear catastrophe. Their stories weave together fallout, the Cold War and secret government agencies, international aid workers and scientists, and everyday life in the Anthropocene.

Scale of nuclear testing in Kazakhstan

The Polygon is a roughly 7,000-square-mile (18,000-square-kilometer) area, close to the size of New Jersey, that was the Soviet Union’s primary nuclear testing ground for 40 years.

silhouetted man walks in foreground of dusty landscape with a large metallic object poking out of crater
People have dug around structures believed to be former missile silos, salvaging scrap metal.
Magdalena Stawkowski

Between 1949 and 1989, more than 450 nuclear tests took place here with a total explosive yield of 2,500 Hiroshima bombs. The most devastating were the above-ground tests, 116 of which were detonated between 1949 and 1963. I’ve seen the archival footage: mushroom clouds rising over the steppe, shock waves knocking people down dozens of miles away.

Today, this history is etched into a landscape pockmarked with deep craters and atomic lakes, contaminated with radioactive isotopes cesium-137, strontium-90 and plutonium-239 that can remain dangerous for thousands of years.

older man approaching door of small house with wide open landscape around it
Burkut’s house, with the test site on the horizon.
Magdalena Stawkowski

I brought the mutant button to show Burkut. At 78, he was the oldest resident in the village of Koian. A pensioner, he was once a tractor operator on a massive Soviet state farm. He and others of his age watched bombs going off in the distance as they worked.

He laughed at the button, and we sat down for tea. His wife boiled the water longer than needed – as was explained to me as a matter of fact, everyone in the village does this “for the radiation.”

When nuclear testing ended and the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Polygon was closed and then simply abandoned. Kazakhstan became an independent nation stuck with legacies of nuclear testing. No cleanup, no warnings, no evacuations – just a vast, contaminated landscape left to nature, metal scavengers and whoever called it home.

This abandonment has never been formally addressed: As of today, there is not a single international body with a mandate to assist communities like Koian. What residents experience as personal abandonment is also a global policy failure.

When I talk about my fieldwork, many Americans are shocked to find that “living on a nuclear test site” is even a logical statement. But thousands of people do still live in scattered villages and homesteads around the test site’s borders or inside the official perimeter, with some settlements just a thousand feet from atomic craters that have become watering holes for livestock.

pool of water ringed by grasses in a depression in a dusty landscape
Craters left by nuclear bomb detonations collect water where livestock drink.
Magdalena Stawkowski

A landmark 2025 report released by Norwegian People’s Aid estimates that atmospheric nuclear tests are on track to cause at least 2 million additional cancer deaths worldwide, a figure that includes the region around the Polygon.

What is particularly devastating about the Polygon’s story is that Soviet state institutions knew about the health impacts of radiation exposure early on. In the late 1950s, secret medical clinics monitored nearby populations, under the pretext of treating animal-borne diseases as they cataloged radiation-induced illnesses and tracked death rates. This went on for almost 40 years and affected mostly ethnic Kazakhs.

Burkut is one of many people around the Polygon I came to know who lived through it all – the mushroom clouds, the shaking house. He buried neighbors and family members who died of strange cancers or what doctors called “mysterious illnesses.” The same doctors blamed their problems on “unsanitary lifestyles” and never mentioned nuclear fallout.

Only during the Soviet policy of glasnost (openness) in the 1980s did information begin to appear.

truck with metal piled in back parked on open landscape, salvaged metal is on the ground around it
Salvaging scrap metal is one way to get by around the Polygon. Identifying marks on truck have been blurred.
Magdalena Stawkowski

Embracing radiation

Health studies, albeit partial, document elevated cancer rates throughout the region, and the Kazakh state officially recognizes Burkut and over 1 million others as radiation victims. So the state has enshrined victimhood in law, even though the science remains contested.

Bodies respond to radiation exposure differently, and decades of secrecy mean that exposure documentation is partial at best. Science can’t draw a clear line between residents’ headaches, dizziness, intestinal issues and kidney problems, let alone the cancers and radiation. Burkut and the rest have local antidotes for the problem. Boiling water is but one.

My first question about life in the Polygon was always, “Why do people stay?”

As Burkut and others explained without jest, “Our organism is different now.” They would tell me, “Clean air is our death,” meaning that the radioactive environment as they know it has changed them so they now depend on it.

I found that people live in what I call an “atomic collective” – a community bound together by contamination and cultural, political, economic and social abandonment. Their logic for staying is not rooted in denial but in affirmation and adaptation. Decades of shared experience in a place where scientific uncertainty runs deep has galvanized local perceptions. “People who move to the city can survive only two years – maximum,” Burkut told me. “Only two are still alive of those who left.”

Those who have tried relocating to cities faced discrimination as “people of the Polygon,” or were thought of as backward peasants who end up cleaning floors and living in moldy apartments. Where Burkut focuses on the dead, Ainur, a 40-year-old woman who grew up in the shadow of the test site, focuses on staying put. “At least here we can grow our own food, raise animals, and the air is clean,” she explained.

They’re affected by their ecosystem, Koian’s residents will say, but they’ve survived. “We’re used to it,” many people told me.

Person in foreground walking toward sheep, shepherding them toward buildings in the distance
Bringing sheep back from pasture.
Magdalena Stawkowski

Refusal to be victims

When I lived in Koian, I watched neighbors share everything from gasoline to food to medicine. Everyone helps cut grasses in the fall and build towering piles of it on the village’s barns for winter feed. Together, their herds of horses, cows and sheep number in the thousands. Networks are everything when alternatives don’t exist.

Some of the younger men work in mines in the region, some even within the Polygon itself. Others have scavenged metal from grown-over nuclear sites. These prospects are dwindling, though. “We can survive on our livestock,” one herder explained, rejecting how outsiders see their impoverished life. These descendants of Kazakh nomadic herders, who once moved freely across the steppe with their animals, now speak of staying put as a mark of strength rather than constraint.

man's arm points to animal silhouettes on a big rock
Ancient petroglyphs, thousands of years old, depict people, horses and dogs.
Magdalena Stawkowski

No one is asking for paved roads, new schools, emergency services or clean land. When electricity is knocked out by the common winter blizzards, they light candles. Outsiders may see apathy. During my time in Koian I understood this as their collective refusal – a community’s decision to reject systems that had abandoned them and instead create their own terms for survival.

“I am a radioactive mutant” isn’t just a darkly humorous button – it is a declaration of collective strength that emerged from collective abandonment.

Today’s policy debates about resuming nuclear testing largely ignore these stories. But the atomic collective is the living present, not ancient history – and a future that any new testing will necessarily produce.

“Radioactive mutant” is not some abstract concept – it’s what human beings call themselves after surviving what strategists deemed necessary. Kazakhstan’s Polygon offers a warning: There is no such thing as a limited nuclear test, only communities left to become self-sufficient by abandonment, on their own by necessity, enduring what others decided was worth the cost.

The Conversation

Magdalena Stawkowski received funding from the Wenner-Gren Foundation, IREX, Social Science Research Council Eurasia Program, The Danish Institute for International Studies (Danish Council for Independent Research).

ref. Mutual aid and self-sufficiency are key to life near USSR’s contaminated nuclear test zone in Kazakhstan – https://theconversation.com/mutual-aid-and-self-sufficiency-are-key-to-life-near-ussrs-contaminated-nuclear-test-zone-in-kazakhstan-260862

Philadelphia’s 40-year history of protecting undocumented immigrants began with churches hiding refugees from El Salvador

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Menika Dirkson, Associate Professor of History, Morgan State University

Supporters visit Javier Flores, right, while he lived in sanctuary at Arch Street United Methodist Church in downtown Philadelphia in 2017. Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images

In the midst of a civil war, married couple Ernesto and Linda Fuentes fled their home country of El Salvador and headed for Philadelphia, via Mexico, in November 1983.

Ernesto was an activist who dispensed food and medicine in Salvadoran refugee camps. Linda was a union organizer for banks and clothing factories.

The Salvadoran government viewed activists, especially suspected guerrilla fighters and union leaders, as threats to its regime. It placed activists’ names on “death squad hit lists.” The couple decided to leave after receiving threatening letters and phone calls.

With false documents and the help of a humanitarian church group, they arrived at the Tabernacle United Church in West Philadelphia on May 12, 1984. The congregation declared itself a public sanctuary for undocumented refugees from El Salvador and Guatemala. An estimated 500,000 undocumented Salvadorans lived in the U.S. around that time.

The Fuenteses used the pastor’s office as their bedroom. Church members were instructed to keep the doors locked and not admit strangers, including the Immigration and Naturalization Service.

As a historian of race and policing in Philadelphia after the Civil Rights Movement, and the daughter of an immigrant, I’ve been exploring Philly’s history of sanctuary and how religious congregations, activists and city officials have supported local refugees over the past 40 years.

Four children of various ages stand together, two of them wiping face with hand or arm
Accompanied by elected officials, clergy and community activists, the four undocumented children of Carmela Apolonio Hernández step out of sanctuary at the Church of the Advocate in North Philadelphia in 2018.
Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images

A ‘welcoming city’ for immigrants

Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker has emphasized since May 2025 that Philadelphia is a certified “welcoming city.” She notably does not call Philadelphia a “sanctuary city.”

Welcoming cities have immigrant-friendly initiatives that make education, housing, workers’ rights, legal aid and language services accessible to immigrants and refugees without using the term “sanctuary city” in their laws and policies.

The presumed goal of this phrasing is to keep Philadelphia off the Trump administration’s radar and protect its US$2.2 billion in federal funding for health and human services.

However, Philly was, at various points, an official sanctuary city.

In 2014, then-Mayor Michael Nutter signed an executive order detailing that local police were not required to assist Immigration and Customs Enforcement unless the case involved a warrant or violent felon.

Nutter later rescinded Philadelphia’s sanctuary city status in an effort to dissuade congressional Republicans from passing a House bill that would deny sanctuary cities federal money earmarked for law enforcement and recidivism reduction. However, the next mayor, Jim Kenney, reinstated the order on Jan. 4, 2016.

Throughout 2017, President Donald Trump and Attorney General Jeff Sessions used executive orders, speeches and the immigration raid Operation Safe City to force Philadelphia officials to assist ICE or lose federal grants.

In 2018, Philadelphia won a lawsuit against the Trump administration that denied ICE access to police databases to find undocumented immigrants and prohibited city employees from assisting ICE.

Young shirtless man holds rainbow flag while protesters behind him carry banner that says 'Melt ICE'
Protesters camped outside Philadelphia City Hall march in July 2018 after Mayor Jim Kenney announced that Philadelphia would stop giving ICE access to a real-time arrest database. Kenney accused the agency of misusing the information to target people who were in the country illegally but were otherwise not accused of any crimes.
AP Photo/Jacqueline Larma

Roots of sanctuary cities

The sanctuary movement started back in the 1960s. But it wasn’t immigrants who were seeking sanctuary. It was Americans.

Around 1968, drafted resisters who were opposed to fighting in the Vietnam War sought refuge in churches in the U.S. Northeast. One of the earliest cases involved Robert Talmanson, who received sanctuary in Boston’s Arlington Street Unitarian Church. He was later arrested by U.S. marshals and local police and incarcerated in Virginia for three years.

In November 1971, Berkeley, California, became the first sanctuary city in the country when 12 local churches inspired the City Council to pass a resolution offering sanctuary to draft resisters. It also banned city employees from “assisting in the investigation or arrest of any sanctuary seeker.”

In the two decades that followed, several Quaker, Presbyterian, Catholic and Jewish congregations across America and Canada used their houses of worship as sanctuaries for Central American refugees who were fleeing civil war, government repression and genocide.

Philly joins national movement

Frustration and outcry over the United States’ low acceptance rates of Central American asylum-seekers sparked Philadelphia’s sanctuary movement.

In January 1984, members of Tabernacle United Church, where the Fuentes couple would soon take refuge, voted to join the national sanctuary network. As the Rev. James MacDonald explained at the time, the congregation chose to “violate a human law in order to respond in obedience to God’s law.”

By May, the First United Methodist Church of Germantown also became a sanctuary church. A few months later, the church sheltered a young Guatemalan couple, Joel and Gabriela, and their 3-year-old daughter, Lucy. Joel, an activist who worked with unions and student groups, had been tortured by Guatemala City police.

On Jan. 14, 1985, INS staged nationwide raids of sanctuaries and arrested 60 undocumented immigrants and 16 sanctuary workers – including pastors, nuns and priests – for violating immigration laws. Joel and his family were among those seized. They were released when church members bailed them out as they awaited deportation hearings.

A new pathway to citizenship

By the mid-’80s, 42,000 people from 2,000 religious institutions in 60 cities nationwide had joined the sanctuary movement.

On Nov. 6, 1986, President Ronald Reagan signed into law the Immigration Reform and Control Act. It granted undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. before 1982 one year to apply for amnesty. If eligible, they would begin a five-year pathway to citizenship.

Approximately 3 million people successfully became naturalized citizens through the amnesty program.

In the Philadelphia area, at least 5,000 to 7,000 people were undocumented in 1986. Advocates at the nonprofit Nationalities Service Center and American Friends Service Committee noted that many immigrants wanted to apply for amnesty but feared the program was a trick.

A decade later, immigration enforcement got tougher.

Local police assist ICE

In 1996, Congress passed Section 287(g) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. This granted local police the right to assist immigration officials in arresting and detaining unauthorized immigrants.

As of April 2026, over 1,600 law enforcement agencies in 39 states and two U.S. territories have a 287(g) agreement with ICE. The program offers local police free training in ICE procedures along with funding for equipment, vehicles and overtime pay.

While the Philadelphia Police Department has never signed a Section 287(g) agreement, about 68 Pennsylvania agencies have, including in neighboring Delaware County.

But these agreements aren’t always long-lasting. Between January and March 2026, two departments in Bucks and Chester counties rescinded their agreements with ICE to make residents feel safe after American-born protesters Renée Good and Alex Pretti were killed during ICE operations in Minneapolis.

Man in blue shirt holds a child as woman hugs him from behind
After a 16-month detention, Javier Flores, a father of three, went into sanctuary at Arch Street United Methodist Church in Philadelphia in 2016. He spent nearly a year in sanctuary before his visa request was approved and ICE waived his previous removal orders.
Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Community activism continues

According to Pew Charitable Trusts, nearly 16% of Philadelphia’s 1.6 million residents are immigrants, largely from Asia and the Caribbean.

The exact number of undocumented immigrants in Philadelphia is unknown. However, the Migration Policy Institute estimates that 250,000 immigrants in Pennsylvania – 1.5% of the state’s total population – are undocumented.

Since January 2025, ICE crackdowns in sanctuary cities such as Los Angeles, Portland, Chicago and New York have resulted in the number of people held in ICE detention jumping from 40,000 to 73,000 people in January 2026.

Citizens and advocacy groups have stepped up to protect immigrants from ICE. The Party for Socialism and Liberation and the AR-12-toting members of the Black Lion Party for International Solidarity participated in protests in Philadelphia. Public school students from Northeast and Edison high schools have led anti-ICE walkouts.

On Jan. 29, 2026, City Council members Kendra Brooks and Rue Landau introduced an “ICE Out” package. The bills aim to codify the right of police to not share immigration, citizenship and personal data with ICE, or detain and hand over arrested individuals to the federal agency.

The legislation also proposes a ban on ICE agents who wear masks or hide their badges, use unmarked cars and city vehicles, or use municipal spaces as staging areas for enforcement and raids. And it would prohibit city employees from giving ICE access to libraries, shelters, health centers and recreation centers without a judicial warrant.

Community activists have long used civil disobedience and humanitarian aid to protect undocumented immigrants who are searching for a fresh start in the U.S.

An interfaith network inspired Philadelphia to become a sanctuary city. Today, churches such as Center City’s Arch Street United Methodist Church and North Philly’s Church of the Advocate, along with other congregations, uphold this tradition while a multicultural community across the city continues that fight.

Read more of our stories about Philadelphia and Pennsylvania, or sign up for our Philadelphia newsletter on Substack.

The Conversation

Menika Dirkson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Philadelphia’s 40-year history of protecting undocumented immigrants began with churches hiding refugees from El Salvador – https://theconversation.com/philadelphias-40-year-history-of-protecting-undocumented-immigrants-began-with-churches-hiding-refugees-from-el-salvador-278756

Protocole d’accord avec les États-Unis : le Sénégal teste un nouveau modèle de financement de la santé

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Ibrahima Thiam, enseignant-chercheur, Université Iba Der Thiam de Thiès

Le Sénégal et les États-Unis ont signé, le 13 mars 2026, un protocole d’accord quinquennal (2026-2030) d’une valeur de 135 millions de dollars. Cette coopération bilatérale vise essentiellement le renforcement du système sanitaire sénégalais.

Cependant, elle intervient dans un contexte particulier marqué par une volonté de restructuration profonde des finances publiques par les autorités sénégalaises après les audits de 2024-2025, et par la projection de l’agenda « Sénégal 2050 » vers la souveraineté économique.

En tant que chercheur, j’ai étudié l’économie de la santé et la mise en œuvre des politiques publiques au Sénégal. Selon moi, l’analyse de cet accord, au-delà d’une lecture médico-technique, doit s’articuler autour de deux perspectives : la capacité de transformation du système de santé et le contexte économique et budgétaire sénégalais.

Implications pour le système de santé

L’accord vise à renforcer plusieurs dimensions clés du système de santé sénégalais, à savoir : la surveillance épidémiologique, les capacités des laboratoires, la digitalisation, les ressources humaines et la lutte contre les maladies prioritaires, notamment celles liées à la santé maternelle et néonatale, et la lutte contre les maladies infectieuses (VIH, paludisme, tuberculose).

Plus concrètement, le volet médico-technique de l’accord vise à consacrer une rupture avec le modèle de soins palliatifs actuel pour une approche préventive et une meilleure utilisation du numérique.

Ainsi, l’efficacité de ce protocole ne repose pas seulement sur l’injection de fonds, mais sur sa capacité à transformer structurellement l’offre de soins à travers trois leviers stratégiques majeurs.

Le premier levier est la transition numérique par la digitalisation du système d’information sanitaire (SIS). Ce pilier doit permettre une allocation plus rationnelle des ressources, limitant les gaspillages et optimisant la gestion des médicaments. En effet, alors que les médicaments représentent 52,1 % des dépenses directes de santé des Sénégalais, l’optimisation de la chaîne de distribution est plus que nécessaire pour transformer la gestion des produits pharmaceutiques, qui pèsent pour 68,5 % dans les charges des structures de soins.

Ainsi, le protocole d’accord prévoit l’interconnexion des structures de santé, permettant un suivi en temps réel de la disponibilité des intrants et une meilleure traçabilité des financements.

Le deuxième levier est la souveraineté épidémiologique par la mise aux normes de laboratoires régionaux.

Le protocole d’accord ambitionne de renforcer les capacités de diagnostic rapide pour garantir efficacement une sécurité sanitaire nationale. Cela passe par la mise à disposition de laboratoires régionaux répondant aux normes requises pour la prise en charge des demandes de diagnostic dans les délais. En outre, il s’agira pour les différentes régions du Sénégal de réduire leur dépendance aux infrastructures de la capitale.

En effet, Dakar concentre encore plus de 60 % des spécialistes.

Le troisième levier est l’optimisation du capital humain et la promotion de l’équité sociale. Parmi les cibles de l’accord figure la réduction drastique de la mortalité maternelle et néonatale, un indicateur de développement humain fondamental. Selon l’Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ANSD), au Sénégal, sur 1000 enfants nés vivants, 48 n’atteignent pas leur premier anniversaire et 66 décèdent avant leur cinquième anniversaire. La mortalité infantile est évaluée à 30,5‰.

Le taux de mortalité maternelle est évalué à 26 décès maternels pour 100 000 femmes de 15-49 ans avec des disparités régionales. À cet effet, le programme compte renforcer les investissements dans la formation continue du personnel soignant et le déploiement de sages-femmes et d’infirmiers spécialisés dans les zones rurales. Cela permet au Sénégal d’améliorer la Couverture sanitaire universelle (CSU). En effet, la CSU garantit que toute personne, sans distinction, puisse accéder à des services de santé essentiels de qualité (prévention, traitement, réadaptation, soins palliatifs) au moment voulu, sans être confrontée à des difficultés financières.

Entre consolidation et souveraineté

Le principal intérêt de ce protocole d’accord de 135 millions de dollars réside dans sa structure financière différentes des modèles traditionnels fréquents. En effet, le Sénégal contribue à plus de la moitié du financement, soit 72 millions de dollars via le budget de l’État. Cette contribution majoritaire traduit une volonté de transition vers un financement domestique et, par conséquent, vers une souveraineté sanitaire.

Cette orientation est cohérente avec les nouvelles politiques publiques, notamment avec le Plan de redressement économique et social du Sénégal, qui met l’accent sur la souveraineté économique et la réduction de la dépendance extérieure.

Toutefois, à l’instar des autres départements, le budget alloué au ministère de la Santé et de l’Hygiène publique reste sous tension. Bien que les dépenses de santé progressent en valeur absolue (autour de 444 millions USD en 2025, puis environ 460 millions USD en 2026), elles peinent à atteindre les 15 % des dépenses publiques recommandées par la Déclaration d’Abuja.

Elles tournent autour de 5 à 6 % dans ces dernières lois de finances 2024-2025.

L’intégration de ce protocole d’accord dans le budget national, malgré son importance, doit composer avec une réalité financière complexe.
Les audits commandités par les nouvelles autorités en 2024 ont révélé que le déficit budgétaire moyen sur la période 2019-2023 s’élevait à 10,4 % du PIB, soit plus du double des chiffres précédemment annoncés et supérieur à la norme communautaire. Le budget 2026, arrêté à 12,46 milliards USD, marque une volonté de reprise en main, avec un déficit projeté à 5,3 % du PIB (avec un objectif de le ramener à la norme communautaire de 3 %).

Le financement de cet accord, qui repose sur une contribution domestique de 53 % du montant total (soit 72 millions de dollars), contraint l’État à une mobilisation accrue des recettes fiscales, avec un objectif de pression fiscale fixé à 23,2 % du PIB.

Parallèlement, la dette publique réévaluée a fortement augmenté, dépassant 100 % du PIB, franchissant ainsi largement le seuil de convergence de l’Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine (UEMOA) fixé à 70 %.

Cela réduit considérablement les marges de manœuvre budgétaire du Sénégal. Ainsi, le service de la dette absorbe plus de 1 190 milliards FCFA (environ 2 milliards USD) en 2026. L’accord sanitaire devra réussir le pari d’une allocation efficiente. Il s’agit de transformer une dépense sociale en investissement de croissance.

En outre, l’amélioration de la santé des populations à travers notamment l’espérance de vie à la naissance qui est actuellement à 68,9 ans au niveau national contre une moyenne mondiale de 73,8, devra contribuer à atteindre les objectifs de croissance visées, nécessaires pour désendetter le pays à long terme.

Par ailleurs, outre les implications financières et économiques, cet accord constitue un label de confiance, dans un contexte où le pays tente de sortir d’une zone de turbulences financières. Ce partenariat, appuyé par les exercices de transparence des nouvelles autorités et les orientations ambitieuses des politiques publiques (Vision Sénégal 2050, Plan de redressement économique et financier…), est un signal de crédibilité envoyé aux investisseurs internationaux et partenaires bilatéraux et multilatéraux.

Un pari sur l’avenir

En définitive, le protocole d’accord Sénégal-Etats-Unis dans le domaine de la santé dépasse une simple aide au développement. Il s’agit aussi d’un test d’efficacité et de viabilité pour la nouvelle politique de souveraineté économique et financière du pays, dans un contexte de marge de manœuvre budgétaire faible.

Cependant, le succès de ce programme dépend de la capacité du Sénégal à transformer ces ressources en résultats sanitaires mesurables (baisse de la mortalité, digitalisation complète, maîtrise des maladies émergentes…) tout en maintenant une discipline fiscale face à une dette publique qui reste la contrainte principale de l’économie sénégalaise.

The Conversation

Ibrahima Thiam works for Iba Der Thiam University of Thies in Senegal.

ref. Protocole d’accord avec les États-Unis : le Sénégal teste un nouveau modèle de financement de la santé – https://theconversation.com/protocole-daccord-avec-les-etats-unis-le-senegal-teste-un-nouveau-modele-de-financement-de-la-sante-279386

Why Americans are buying $22 smoothies despite feeling terrible about the economy

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Yuanyuan (Gina) Cui, Assistant Professor of Marketing, Coastal Carolina University

A selection of smoothies are listed in front of the high-end grocer Erewhon in Culver City, Calif., on July 17, 2024. Photo by Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Americans are skipping restaurant dinners, delaying car purchases and scouring for grocery deals. Amid tariff anxiety and broader stress over affordability, consumer confidence has dropped to levels not seen in over a decade, according to The Conference Board, a business think tank. At this point, it’s wealthier consumers who are powering the bulk of spending in the U.S. economy.

So what explains the success of Erewhon’s US$22 smoothie?

The Los Angeles grocery chain selling these fancy concoctions is doing so well, it opened three new stores in 2025 – its biggest expansion since 2011. The chain reportedly generates $1,800 to $2,500 in sales per square foot, up to five times what a typical U.S. supermarket earns.

These aren’t ordinary blended drinks; they include ingredients such as high-grade sea moss gel, adaptogenic mushrooms and collagen peptides. Often they come with a celebrity’s name attached.

It’s all part of the broader boom in the U.S. specialty food market, which has surpassed $219 billion – up nearly 150% in a decade, according to the Specialty Food Association. That far outpaces the roughly 47% growth seen in overall U.S. grocery sales over the same period.

Independent retail data from the market research firm Circana also confirms this growth: Even as inflation-weary consumers have traded down to store brands in many categories, premium and specialty products held up and even grew their dollar share of the market through 2025. On TikTok, creators who once filmed designer-bag hauls now post $12 tinned fish boards. Craft chocolate bars that cost $8–$12 are being marketed as, without irony, “self-care.”

So if consumers are this anxious, why are they still splurging? In fact, these aren’t contradictions – they’re two expressions of the same psychological reaction.

When people feel life is out of control, they reach for something small, expensive and signaling virtue. This is the real reason premium food is booming while some traditional luxury brands struggle, say consumer psychologists.

We are professors of consumer behavior and marketing who study how people make purchasing decisions amid economic uncertainty, and ask what explains the gap between how consumers feel and how they actually spend. Our work points to a consistent finding: When people feel they’ve lost control over the big things, they seek it in the small ones.

A photo of a chilled Erewhon smoothie that includes kefir, blueberries, honey, raw beef, bananas, sea salt and maple syrup.
Dr. Paul’s Raw Animal-Based Smoothie, photographed outside Erewhon in Culver City, Calif., on July 17, 2024.
Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

A quick detour through the makeup drawer

Economists have seen this before.

In 2001, Estée Lauder Chairman Leonard Lauder coined the term the “lipstick index” after he saw that lipstick sales rose 11% following the Sept. 11 attacks. When big luxuries feel out of reach, consumers find a small substitute. A $60 lipstick is extravagant for a cosmetic, but next to the Hermès handbag it psychologically replaces, it feels like a bargain.

Then, as now, people seek agency wherever they can find it. Consumer psychologists call this “compensatory consumption”: buying things to feel in control when life feels out of control.

While even beauty sales are softening, that impulse hasn’t disappeared. It has just found better hosts – such as food.

In many ways, food is an ideal product for this compensation. It’s experiential – something you taste, smell and savor. It’s also emotional – carrying associations with comfort, care and home. And it’s visible, because if you’re on social media, what you eat is now as public as what you wear. Premium food isn’t just eaten – it’s filmed, posted and performed.

Most importantly, it’s still relatively accessible. Twenty-two dollars may be an absurd price for a drink, but it’s cheap compared with a $400 wellness retreat.

Shoppers enter and exit the crowded high-end grocery store Erewhon in Pasadena, Calif.
Shoppers enter and exit the high-end grocery store Erewhon during its Pasadena, Calif., opening on Sept. 13, 2023.
Sarah Reingewirtz/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images

Indulgence with a side of virtue

Here is what separates this moment from Lauder’s lipstick index. That example was purely about pleasure, as consumers sought indulgence as consolation. Today’s premium food purchases carry an additional layer: They are coded as virtuous.

An Erewhon smoothie isn’t just a treat. It’s organic, superfood-enriched and wellness-aligned. By the same logic, a $20 bottle of single-estate olive oil isn’t just cooking fat; it’s a commitment to craft and health. Premium tinned fish isn’t convenience food; it’s sustainably sourced protein caught in the wild with packaging beautiful enough to display.

This “virtue coding” does the most important psychological work in the sales transaction: It transforms indulgence into self-investment. You’re not splurging during a downturn; you’re doing something for your health. You’re not being frivolous; you’re supporting small producers. Research shows that people need reasons to justify pleasurable purchases, especially during financial anxiety – and premium food is powerful because the justification is built into the product. The organic label, the sustainability story, the wellness framing – they all dissolve guilt before it even kicks in.

Consumed in the kitchen and again on the feed

There’s a reason this trend is accelerating now. Many premium food purchases are consumed twice – once physically and once digitally. The Erewhon smoothie purchase isn’t really about the drink; it can be as much about the content as the drink. The tinned fish board is plated for Instagram before anyone takes a bite.

Social media doesn’t just amplify the trend; it completes it. When you post a photo or video of the smoothie, you’re broadcasting that you value wellness, quality and intentionality. In a cultural moment when flaunting a designer bag feels tone-deaf, food provides perfect cover. It’s the safest flex there is. It’s no surprise that one YouTube video of an Erewhon haul by food creator @KarissaEats has drawn over 14 million views.

All of this raises a fair question: Does the growing focus on the “K-shaped economy” explain this boom? As many economists see it, low- and middle-income shoppers are increasingly pulling back, as they face an affordability squeeze from health care to housing and education. But wealthier consumers are picking up the slack and then some, splurging on luxury and powering gross domestic product growth.

In this scenario, premium food thrives because it’s still affordable for the people who are doing fine, even as everyone else cuts back. That’s partly true. But this explanation doesn’t account for another shift – why affluent consumers are foregoing splurges on items like designer handbags in favor of premium groceries.

This is why the virtue framing matters so much. If the question was purely about having money to spend, traditional luxury would be booming as well. It isn’t. A case in point is LVMH, the conglomerate behind Louis Vuitton and Dior, which saw its fashion division’s profits decline 13% across all of 2025.

Even consumers who are flush with disposable income need psychological permission to spend during anxious times. The premium food phenomenon is about why food has become the thing they choose – not about who can afford to splurge.

And when a smoothie becomes a status symbol, it tells us something about economic security more broadly. Food prices have climbed nearly 30% since 2019, outpacing 23% for overall consumer prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For a family stretching a tight grocery budget, $22 isn’t a smoothie. It’s dinner.

The need for control, the desire for identity, the comfort of virtue permission — these are universal. A single mother working two jobs feels the same craving for agency as the influencer filming her grocery haul. It’s just that the purchases that satisfy those needs are increasingly constrained by price. The justification only works if you can afford your indulgence.

What’s really in the cart

The next time you’re in a grocery store and you reach for something a little more expensive than what you might need, you should pause – not to put it back, but to think about what you’re actually reaching for.

Chances are it isn’t really about the product. It’s about the feeling of choosing something when the world feels out of hand.

A $22 smoothie is never just a smoothie. It’s what people seek out when they need permission to feel OK.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why Americans are buying $22 smoothies despite feeling terrible about the economy – https://theconversation.com/why-americans-are-buying-22-smoothies-despite-feeling-terrible-about-the-economy-279425

Iran ceasefire has brought a sudden fall in oil prices – but this pause underscores the volatility in the market

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adi Imsirovic, Lecturer in Energy Systems, University of Oxford

Who is Danny/Shutterstock

Before the temporary ceasefire in the Gulf, the world had been experiencing the biggest oil price shock ever, surpassing even the crises of the 1970s. The scale and speed of movements were comparable to some of the most disruptive episodes in modern energy markets.

At the centre of the disruption was the US-Israel conflict with Iran and the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz. The strait is a choke-point through which roughly one fifth of the global oil supply typically flows. Under the terms of the ceasefire, it is now expected to reopen.

The use of energy as a geopolitical weapon is not new. Sanctions imposed by the US and its allies on countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, Iraq, Russia and Iran have long contributed to oil market volatility. These measures reduce the pool of freely marketable oil and increase uncertainty.

More recently, European, UK and US sanctions on Russia also reshaped trade flows and pricing dynamics. And the G7 has imposed its own price caps on Russian crude.

When it comes to the Gulf, there are alternative export routes out to open sea but their capacity is limited. Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline can transport around five million barrels of oil per day to the Red Sea. And the UAE’s pipeline to the city of Fujairah can move around 1.5 million barrels per day, bypassing the strait. Throughout the hostilities, Iran continued to export an estimated 1.5 million barrels of oil per day.

But even accounting for these alternatives, any disruption in the strait implies a loss of roughly 10% of the world’s oil supply. In comparison, the oil shocks of the 1970s represented around 5-7% of the world’s supply.

The effects of this supply crunch propagated rapidly through global markets. They initially hit Asian buyers before spreading to Europe and beyond. Price premiums for physical crude have surged, and prices for the three main benchmark crudes (Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)) have all risen sharply.

Crude oil and heating oil prices from December 2025 to April 2026.

At the same time, volatility in the market has also increased dramatically. Implied volatility in Brent futures has climbed from below 30% in December to around 90% more recently. Put simply, this means the price of oil was expected to change by no more than 30% in December last year, but this expectation rose to 90% recently.

In part, it reflects a fundamental imbalance between scarce physical supply and a largely unchanged volume of financial (“paper”) trading and hedging activity.

In the spot market (where purchases are made “on the spot”), prices have reflected the acute scarcity. Here, prices for physical Brent reached US$140 (£106) per barrel. Some grades have been trading at premiums exceeding US$10 above this.

Saudi Arabia’s official selling price for its flagship “Arab Light” crude has risen steeply for Asian buyers. This underscores the tightness in markets for immediate delivery and the extent of short-term pressure on demand.

But futures markets tell a different story. As the name suggests, these are where buyers agree a price for later delivery. These prices are significantly lower. This suggests that traders still expected the disruption to be temporary, with the possibility of a relatively rapid price correction should geopolitical conditions stabilise.

These expectations are not without foundation. While some refining infrastructure (such as Ras Tanura and Samref in Saudi Arabia, Ruwais in the UAE, Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah in Kuwait and Bapco in Bahrain among others) have been damaged, much of the core oil production capacity in the region remains intact. In theory, exports could resume within days or weeks.

In addition, a large number of tankers known as very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have been stranded in the Gulf. This deescalation should quickly release significant volumes of oil back on to the market.

Optimism or caution?

This gap between short-term panic and longer-term expectations is a key feature of the current market. It reflects the wide range of possible geopolitical outcomes.

But there are reasons to be cautious about such optimism. Control of the strait of Hormuz is one of Iran’s most powerful strategic tools. Further disruption may serve both Iran’s economic and political objectives, particularly after it has suffered such significant infrastructure damage.

The cessation of hostilities and reopening of the strait should ease immediate supply concerns. But it could also signal a deeper shift in the global security architecture that has underpinned energy markets for decades. In particular, a reduced role for the US as a security guarantor in key shipping lanes could introduce a more persistent risk premium into oil prices. This would raise consumer costs across the world for a huge variety of goods.

In such a world, the primary constraint on energy markets may shift from the availability of resources to the security of production and transport infrastructure. This could potentially embed higher volatility into oil markets over the longer term.




Read more:
Could this energy crisis be worse for the global economy than COVID?


The negotiations will be difficult, and diverging objectives among the key actors complicate the outlook. For Iran, the conflict has been existential. For Israel, weakening Iran may be a long-term objective. And US policy goals remain less clearly defined. The widening regional dimension just adds more uncertainty.

A pause in the conflict does not mean the end of hostilities. The temporary truce may enable the oil tankers to leave the Persian Gulf, but will they dare to go back in? The uncertainty only amplifies the market volatility.

There is still the option of more releases from strategic petroleum reserves – and governments may choose to do this. However, this would be a temporary relief and would risk leaving global reserves depleted, creating vulnerabilities to future shocks. Markets would be likely to anticipate this and it would limit the effectiveness of the move in stabilising prices.

A renewal of the conflict represents the worst scenario. Sustained high prices would bring back the spectre of inflation, high interest rates, economic slowdown and growing unemployment. In a global economy already burdened with debt from the COVID crisis, there are few levers left for central banks to tackle this predicament.

The Conversation

Adi Imsirovic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Iran ceasefire has brought a sudden fall in oil prices – but this pause underscores the volatility in the market – https://theconversation.com/iran-ceasefire-has-brought-a-sudden-fall-in-oil-prices-but-this-pause-underscores-the-volatility-in-the-market-280076

Water conservation works, but climate change is outpacing it: Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas offer a glimpse of the future

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Renee Obringer, Assistant Professor in the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Penn State

The Denver suburb of Castle Rock, Colo., limits water use in future developments. Homeowners are embracing water-efficient yards. RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

When a drought turns into an urban water crisis, a city’s first step is often to limit lawn watering and launch a campaign to encourage everyone to conserve. It might raise water-use rates or offer incentives for installing low-flow devices.

While demand management techniques like these have had a lot of success in reducing water use, our new research suggests that they may not be effective enough in the face of climate change.

We looked at three cities in the Colorado River Basin – Phoenix, Las Vegas and Denver – to understand what each could do to increase demand management amid water shortages and how far those methods could go as temperatures rise and the Colorado River’s flow weakens.

The results suggest the region needs to be thinking about bigger solutions.

Colorado River states’ immediate challenge

The Colorado River provides drinking water to nearly 40 million people and irrigation for over 5.5 million acres of cropland. But it has experienced a significant drop in water availability in recent decades due in part to rising demand for water and a long-running megadrought in the Southwest.

To ensure that water is shared across boundaries, the seven states within the basin agreed to the Colorado River Compact in 1922, setting limits on water withdrawals from the river. Since then, the region has adopted additional rules, agreements and policies, collectively termed the “Law of the River.” But despite this compact, which the states are renegotiating in 2026, the basin’s water supply is shrinking.

Research shows that the region is likely to experience more intense, frequent droughts that last longer due to climate change, putting the water supplies for farms, people and energy systems at risk.

As researchers who study the impact of climate change on water systems, we wanted to see if demand management techniques could help under these intensifying conditions.

Getting people involved can change attitudes

Many demand management policies are reactive and only go into effect when sources run low.

These reactive policies can be successful during the scarcity period, but there is often a rebound effect: Water consumption can actually increase afterward.

We integrated survey data with a computer model of water availability and demonstrated that there can be long-term benefits to the local water supply if communities encourage positive attitudes toward conservation.

A woman in a reflective vest checks a plant along a street. Behind her, an SUV has the words 'Water Patrol' on the side.
Las Vegas has water investigators who can issue tickets for illegal water use.
Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The survey focused on how people think about water conservation and climate change, drawing on a large body of research that shows people who care about the environment often take eco-friendly actions. Building off these ideas, we segmented the population into groups that shared similar views on water conservation and found that a large proportion of residents supported water conservation but weren’t actively participating in conservation programs within their communities.

We then used the computer model to explore how changing attitudes, and subsequent conservation behavior, could affect water supplies under climate change.

When participatory demand management works

Our research shows that individual actions, when implemented by a lot of people, can measurably improve water supplies’ reliability.

A great example of the benefits of long-term behavioral changes is Las Vegas.

Las Vegas is in many ways viewed as a city of excess; however, since 2002, the city has reduced its per-capita water use by nearly 60%, even as the population grew by more than 50%. It reached these savings through efforts to reduce seasonal irrigation, replace water-intensive landscaping and require new developments to be sustainable, along with the treatment and reuse of wastewater. Today, Las Vegas recycles nearly all of the water used indoors and returns it to Lake Mead.

Phoenix, another desert city, also runs successful conservation programs. These programs focus on converting grass lawns to desert-friendly landscaping and encouraging owners to fix leaks and install smart meters and low-flow devices. These programs led to a 20% reduction in water use over 20 years, while the population grew by about 40%.

Demand management is not always enough

These cities have shown that demand management can work, but there are limits on how much these techniques can do as water supplies dry up.

When we added projections of future climate change to our model, we found that conditions could lead to so little water being available that these demand management methods won’t be able to keep up.

In other words, climate change may create situations where water supplies are still severely limited, even after people reduced their consumption by up to 25%.

For example, under a plausible, moderately high emissions scenario, Phoenix’s available surface water supply was forecast to drop below the historical average by 2060. Even when we simulated higher participation in conservation programs, there was no noticeable change in the water availability, suggesting that any savings from reducing demand were counteracted by losses from upstream flow reductions. Encouraging people to use less water is a start, but there is a limit to how much people can conserve.

We found similar results in Denver under a moderate emissions scenario and in Las Vegas under a moderately high emissions scenario, indicating that even moderate climate change could lead to extreme scarcity conditions that are not manageable through demand-side changes alone.

What else cities can do

In these cases, it may be necessary to find other creative water sources, such as water reuse, desalination or limiting consumption in other sectors, such as agriculture or energy, to maintain the municipal supply.

These solutions, however, take time and money to implement. Desalination is incredibly expensive. A recently built desalination plant in Carlsbad, California, cost US$1 billion – four times the initial estimate.

A woman in a hardhat walks past stacks of tubes for making saltwater drinkable.
Carlsbad, Calif., on the Pacific Ocean in San Diego County, built a desalination plant to make seawater drinkable. It produces 50 million gallons a day, but that water is among the costliest in the region.
Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Other solutions, such as reducing agricultural water use, require significant buy-in from local farmers and could result in producing less food.

Reducing the water consumed for electricity generation would require significant investment in renewable energy technologies that have lower water requirements than fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

While large-scale solutions like water reuse systems and desalination can be expensive, these costs might be necessary to maintain adequate water supply in the region, because simply encouraging people to use less won’t be enough.

The Conversation

Renee Obringer received funding from the National Science Foundation.

Dave White received funding from the National Science Foundation.

ref. Water conservation works, but climate change is outpacing it: Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas offer a glimpse of the future – https://theconversation.com/water-conservation-works-but-climate-change-is-outpacing-it-phoenix-denver-and-las-vegas-offer-a-glimpse-of-the-future-279837

City animals act in the same brazen ways around the world

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Daniel T. Blumstein, Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles

A monkey swipes a soda in Thailand. Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images

The urban monkeys in New Delhi are so bold they’ll steal the lunch right off your plate. If you’ve spent time in New York, you’ve probably seen squirrels try to do the same. Sydney’s white ibises got the nickname “bin chickens” for stealing trash and sandwiches.

This brazen behavior isn’t normal for most species in the countryside, yet it shows up in urban wildlife, and not just in these cities.

Studies show that animals living in urban environments around the world exhibit common sets of behaviors. At the same time, these urban animals are losing traits they would need in the wild. This process of urban animals’ behavior becoming more similar is known as “behavioral homogenization,” and it accompanies the loss of species diversity with urbanization.

A man reads his newspaper in New York's Central Park as a squirrel rifles through his bag on the bench beside him.
Squirrels in New York’s Central Park have no qualms about rifling through your belongs and stealing your food.
Keystone/Getty Images

We study animals in urban settings to understand how humans can help wildlife thrive in an urbanizing world. In a new study, we explore the causes and the long-term consequences of these behavior changes for urban wildlife.

What makes animals in cities similar?

Cities, despite their local differences, share many of the same features worldwide: They are warmer than the surrounding countryside, noisy, polluted by light and, most importantly, dominated by people.

New York’s squirrels, New Delhi’s monkeys, gulls in coastal cities of the U.K. and other urban wildlife have learned that people are a source of food. And because people typically don’t harm the animals, city-dwelling animals learn not to fear people.

Cities drive evolution as well. Humans and the changes we’ve brought to cities have led to the survival of bolder animals, and those bolder animals pass on their traits to future generations. In genetics, scientists refer to this as the environment “selecting” for those traits.

A monkey runs up to a guest at a wedding and takes food right off the plate the person is holding. ABC 7

It’s not just sandwich-stealing that is more common among city wildlife; urban birds also sound more alike.

Why? Cities are loud and filled with traffic noise, so those who can effectively communicate in that environment are more likely to survive and pass on those traits.

For example, urban birds may sing louder, start singing earlier in the morning or at higher frequencies to avoid getting drowned out by low-frequency traffic noise.

Cities select for smart individuals and species because that’s what it takes to survive.

Animals may behave similarly in cities because they learn from each other how to exploit novel human food sources. For instance, the cockatoos in Sydney have learned to open trash bins. In Toronto, the raccoons are in a race to outwit humans as urban wildlife managers try to design animal-proof trash bins.

Cockatoos have figured out how to use a drinking fountain in Sydney. New Scientist

The buildings and bridges in cities become home to bats, birds, and other urban dwellers, at the cost of learning to use more natural nesting sites. Roads and culverts modify how and where animals move.

While rural animals may forage at a variety of places and eat a variety of foods, urban animals may concentrate on garbage bins or rubbish dumps where they know they can find food, but they end up eating a potentially unhealthy diet.

Consequences of similar behaviors

The loss of behavioral diversity is happening everywhere that humans increase their footprint on nature. This is worrisome on several levels.

At the population level, behavioral variation may reflect genetic variation. Genetic variation gives species the ability to respond to future environmental change. For example, for animals that have evolved to breed at a specific time of the year, urban heat islands can select for earlier breeding.

Reducing genetic variation leaves populations less able to respond to future changes. In that sense, having genetic variation resembles a diversified investment portfolio: Spreading risk across a variety of stocks and bonds lowers the risk that a single shock will wipe out everything.

A large white bird with a black head and curved black beak picks through a trash bin along a waterfront area.
An ibis picks through a trash bin in Sydney.
Greg Wood/AFP via Getty Images

Moreover, as animals become tamer, new conflicts between animals and humans may emerge. For instance, there may be more car crashes, animal bites, property damage and zoonotic disease transmission. Such conflicts cost money and may harm both the animals and humans.

Losing behavioral diversity is also troubling for conservation.

When a species loses behavioral diversity, it loses resilience against future environmental change in the wild, making reintroducing urban animals to the wild harder.

Losing behavioral diversity also risks erasing socially learned, population-specific behaviors, such as local migration routes, foraging techniques, tool-use traditions or vocal dialects.

For example, Australia’s regent honeyeater populations have been shrinking and are critically endangered. The isolation of having fewer of their own species around has disrupted normal song-learning behavior, making it harder for male birds to sing attractive songs that help them find mates and breed successfully.

Regent honeyeaters are learning the wrong songs. The Guardian

Ultimately, behavioral homogenization is making wildlife in cities such as Los Angeles, Lima, Lagos and Lahore behave in similar ways despite living in different environments and having different evolutionary histories.

Many of these behaviors influence survival and reproduction, so understanding this form of diversity loss is important for successful wildlife conservation, as well as future urban planning.

The Conversation

Daniel T. Blumstein is on the Board of Trustees of the nonprofit environmental organization The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory.

Peter Mikula and Piotr Tryjanowski do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. City animals act in the same brazen ways around the world – https://theconversation.com/city-animals-act-in-the-same-brazen-ways-around-the-world-279977

From a vaccine mascot to business leadership, lessons for the US from Brazil’s public health system in building public trust and keeping it

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jessica A.J. Rich, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Marquette University

Business leaders and community groups across Brazil stepped in to counter the government’s anti-vaccine messaging and to help develop and distribute vaccines. Wang Tiancong/Xinhua via Getty Images

Public health institutions are under threat by populist governments across the globe.

From Budapest to Jakarta, Indonesia, public health agencies are being stripped of funding and independence. Meanwhile, disinformation has sown distrust in scientific experts. The results are already visible through the return of diseases once thought eliminated or controlled, like measles and whooping cough.

The United States is no exception to this trend. Since Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. was confirmed as secretary of Health and Human Services in February 2025, he has fired over 10,000 staff, cut budgets and attempted to gut childhood vaccine recommendations. Though medical and public health groups have pushed back with some success, key government health institutions face a leadership vacuum, and national public health policy has fractured into “health alliances” formed by groups of states.

Doctors and scientists across the country worry about long-term damage to the country’s health system.

As a researcher studying the politics of health care, I believe it’s helpful to look to countries that have successfully managed similar threats. As my co-authors and I have argued, Brazil’s experience offers insights into how public health institutions can preserve power and authority in the face of assault.

Much like the U.S., Brazil has a fragmented and polarized Congress, it has powerful self-interested lobbies, and it has a federal system of government. And much like in the U.S., health outcomes suffer from stark race and income gaps.

But when a populist president attacked the Brazilian health care system during COVID-19, the public successfully rallied to its defense

People hold signs during a protest against COVID-19 vaccine passports and mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations in Brazil.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, from 2019 to 2022, shook Brazilians’ long-held trust in vaccines and public health.
Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images

A health system under attack

Brazil’s health system, established in its current form in 1990, provides free universal health care to all its citizens. Despite some significant flaws, including unequal access to care in poor and rural areas, its focus on preventive care is widely considered a model worldwide

Prior to the administration of right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro, from 2019 to 2022, Brazilians had trust in vaccines. They had what public health experts call a vaccine culture, thanks to the hard work of health workers who had spent years promoting them and making them easily accessible. Vaccines even had a beloved national mascot in Zé Gotinha (Joe Droplet), a cartoon vaccine droplet with a Pillsbury Doughboy-like visage.

When COVID-19 hit Brazil in March 2020, Bolsonaro – dubbed by many as the “Trump of the Tropics” – launched unprecedented attacks on Brazil’s vaccine program. Among other measures, he fired the senior leadership of the health ministry and appointed as minister an active-duty military officer with no health credentials.

A white vaccine droplet with a smiling face and the logo of Brazil's public health system on its belly.
A walking vaccine droplet named Zé Gotinha – Joe Droplet – is Brazil’s vaccine mascot.
Vinicius Loures/Câmara dos Deputados via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Bolsonaro’s attacks on the vaccine program – a backbone of Brazil’s preventive health efforts – were especially strong. He pressured Brazil’s drug regulatory agency to ban pediatric vaccines. He blocked resources for vaccine procurement, and he spread misinformation, notoriously suggesting the vaccine could give people AIDS.

After Bolsonaro’s initial attacks on Brazil’s COVID-19 response efforts, the entire health system appeared on the verge of collapse. However, Brazil’s public health workers then marshaled broad support to defend their vaccine program.

Opposition governors offered important but limited help by producing their own vaccine guidance and procuring their own vaccines. But political support, on its own, couldn’t overcome Bolsonaro’s attacks.

That’s because Brazil’s vaccine program depended not just on independence, but also on resources to operate. And governments with an anti-science bent have many ways to deprive even well-established agencies of resources without broad congressional approval.

Brazil’s vaccine program ultimately survived because allies outside government stepped in to defend it not only with political advocacy, but by donating money and resources and with social activism.

Jair Bolsonaro launched an attack against Brazil’s health system during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Business leaders to the rescue

Businesses filled gaps in government resources with donations of private-sector funding. Two business coalitions gave a total of over 270 million real (US$54 million) to help two public laboratories, the Institute of Technology in Immunobiology, known as BioManguinhos, and the Butantan Institute.

One of the largest foundations in Brazil, the Lemann Foundation, paid for AstraZeneca’s clinical trials in Brazil. Ambev, one of the largest firms in South America, lent its logistics team to help BioManguinhos acquire supplies and equipment.

Women of Brazil, a nonpartisan network of female business leaders, even built a campaign called United for the Vaccine to help towns and cities acquire the vaccine distribution equipment they needed. They provided local health officials with cheap supplies, like coolers and refrigerators, as well as costlier investments, such as boats and even planes for carrying vaccines to the isolated communities of the Amazon.

As pulmonologist Margareth Dalcolmo, who consulted for United for the Vaccine, emphasized to me in an interview: “All their requests were met, without one cent of government money being used.”

From the ground up

Another hugely important component of defending Brazil’s vaccine program was support from trusted local grassroots groups.

When vaccines became available, community-based groups across the country jumped in to combat disinformation with their own locally produced information campaigns – especially in underserved communities.

One group I spoke to distributed 5,000 informational posters across their neighborhood. Another, Tamo Junto Rocinha, or We’re in it Together Rocinha, published a book with lessons for kids to do with their parents while school was canceled – all with vaccination information embedded. Voz das Comunidades, or Voice of the Communities, a neighborhood news service, even created a smartphone application to combat misinformation while also notifying community members of daily death tallies.

A commuter wearing a facemask gets his COVID-19 vaccine at a Rio de Janeiro bus station.
A long-term investment in building trust in public health helped fuel the groundswell of support for COVID-19 vaccine efforts.
Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images

So many grassroots groups organized to counter Bolsonaro’s attacks on COVID-19 vaccines that researchers began to map the campaigns bubbling up across the country. By early 2021, one map had identified over 1,300 grassroots efforts and over 800 organized by universities.

By August 2022, despite Bolsonaro’s disinformation campaigns, 81% of Brazil’s adult population was fully vaccinated against COVID-19. These vaccination rates equaled those of New Zealand and the Netherlands and were well above that of the United States, where only 67% were fully vaccinated at the time.

This is not to say that Brazil was immune to disinformation campaigns. Vaccination rates for some diseases, such as measles, declined, as they have across the world.

But in many ways, the attacks on Brazil’s vaccine program paradoxically strengthened it. By the end of 2022, thanks to donor support, BioManguinhos had already built a new testing laboratory, and Butantan was constructing a new vaccine production facility. Brazil even had a new national health surveillance institute. By 2024, once Bolsonaro was voted out, overall spending on the health system had increased from the prior year by 27%.

Playing the long game with public health

In my view, these emergency countermeasures in Brazil worked effectively because the country had already spent years building a foundation of trust in – and ownership of – the shared goals of its public health system.

Decades ago, in the 1980s, Brazilians successfully demanded that their politicians make health care accessible to all – driving the genesis of the country’s universal public health system, known by the acronym SUS.

Brazil’s health ministry continues to invest heavily in making sure citizens take ownership of it. Cities and towns are postered with signs declaring “SUS is ours!” or “Health care is your right!”

As I found in my recent research in Brazil, this kind of advertising makes people feel their institutions are an earned right and reduces the power of partisan messaging.

Brazil also invests in integrating health workers into the communities they serve and cultivating public trust in their expertise. Government health care workers routinely set up shop in public plazas to advertise cancer screenings or give vaccinations. They regularly visit schools, where doctors or nurses talk to young people in accessible language about what the nation’s public health system offers its citizens. As one health care worker told me: “It’s like they are constantly saying, ‘Look, the doors are open. You can come. You’ll be seen and supported.’”

These long-term relationships between communities and the public health system helped lay the groundwork in Brazil for mounting a unified defense when political turbulence threatened public health agencies. Worldwide, a long-term view toward building or strengthening these relationships may help the public embrace the idea that public health institutions are worth defending.

The Conversation

Jessica A.J. Rich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. From a vaccine mascot to business leadership, lessons for the US from Brazil’s public health system in building public trust and keeping it – https://theconversation.com/from-a-vaccine-mascot-to-business-leadership-lessons-for-the-us-from-brazils-public-health-system-in-building-public-trust-and-keeping-it-267611