Quelle approche globale pour un musée sobre et citoyen ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Lucie Marinier, Professeure titulaire de la chaire d’ingénierie de la culture et de la création, Conservatoire national des arts et métiers (CNAM)

L’Atelier Maciej-Fiszer à Paris, qui a dû penser réemploi pour les expositions « Zorn » (automne 2017), « Les Hollandais à Paris » (printemps 2018) et « Impressionnistes à Londres » (automne 2018). Paris Musées

L’ouvrage Musée et Écologie. Missions, engagements et pratiques publié, sous la direction de Lucie Marinier, d’Aude Porcedda et d’Hélène Vassal, en janvier 2026, dans la collection « Musée-Mondes » des éditions de la Documentation française, dresse le riche panorama d’un secteur qui s’est « mis en route » et qui cherche, bien qu’encore freiné par des indicateurs marqués par la notion de croissance, à allier sobriété aux engagements écologique et citoyen.


Face à l’urgence climatique et à la multiplication des atteintes au vivant, les musées ont à résoudre une équation difficile mais décisive : renforcer leur rôle social et culturel pour participer à la redirection écologique de la société tout en diminuant leur impact sur l’environnement. Or celui-ci est réel : à titre d’exemple, un grand établissement comme le musée du Quai Branly Jacques Chirac émet près de 9000 tonnes équivalent CO2 de GES par an hors trajets des visiteurs. Or ces derniers peuvent peser jusqu’à 80 ou 90 % des émissions d’un établissement culturel.

Depuis une dizaine d’années, notamment au Canada mais aussi en France, nombreux sont les musées qui mettent en place des méthodologies pour mesurer et diminuer leur impact négatif et redoublent d’efforts pour diffuser la connaissance scientifique sur l’anthropocène et ses conséquences sur l’habitabilité terrestre, participant à la construire un nouvel imaginaire.

Cela concerne les musées de sciences mais aussi, bien que plus récemment, les musées d’art. Ces derniers, en plus de programmer des expositions d’art écologique, développent des initiatives hybrides avec des artistes, professionnels de l’environnement (OFB, Ademe), scientifiques du climat ou activistes. Ce fut le cas avec la programmation « Planétarium » au Centre Pompidou ou l’exposition « Cent œuvres qui racontent le climat » au Musée d’Orsay.

Nous sommes donc face à un secteur qui a pris conscience de son impact et de sa responsabilité et cherche à penser autrement, alors que les musées restent évalués à l’aune de la croissance des lieux et des collections, de la fréquentation des expositions et de l’illusion d’une stabilité climatique permettant une conservation des œuvres qui se voudrait immuable.

Une démarche commune et cohérente

L’ouvrage Musée et Écologie, sous la direction de Lucie Marinier (professeure du CNAM), d’Aude Porcedda (professeure de l’Université de Québec à Trois-Rivières) et d’Hélène Vassal (directrice du soutien aux collections du musée du Louvre) a mis à contribution plus de 90 acteurs – professionnels des musées, scientifiques et artistes – qui se mobilisent pour la production d’orientations stratégiques, font évoluer le discours du musée, construisent des projets citoyens et participatifs et des pratiques écoresponsables concrètes.

Car seules les approches globales, qui concernent les contenus culturels mais aussi la sobriété de leur production et de leur diffusion, peuvent inscrire de manière durable la redirection d’un établissement. Pour cela, de nouvelles manières de construire les projets, plus circulaires, plus collectives, sont essentielles, ce qui implique de décloisonner les fonctions et intégrer le plus en amont possible les enjeux écologiques. Le secteur muséal est constitué de métiers identifiés et les professionnels sont très connectés, y compris à l’échelon international, et ce sont par ces réseaux que passent les nouvelles pratiques.

Les projets d’écoresponsabilités sont aussi l’occasion de nouvelles collaborations, d’un certain « partage de la légitimité » entre les fonctions scientifiques et culturelles et les fonctions techniques, de production et de médiation, internes mais aussi externes au musées (par exemple des scénographes au sein des établissements de Paris Musées qui leur demande désormais d’imaginer des dispositifs qui pourront être au moins partiellement réutilisés pour deux voire trois expositions tout en étant pertinentes pour chacune).

Des expérimentations, souvent menées par des structures dédiées ou par des institutions en collectif favorisent ces décloisonnements et la collaboration avec des chercheur·euses.

De nouveaux métiers (écoconseillers, référents en responsabilité sociétale des organisations) apparaissent. Plusieurs politiques publiques ont accompagné et soutenu ces processus ces dernières années, souvent par des appels à projets, des guides ou des projets innovants tels que les résidences vertes.

Stratégies d’écoconditionnement des œuvres, inspirée du principe d’écoconception de la roue de Brezet et Van Hemel.
Studio dazd — Augures Lab Culturrrre Circulaire (ex-« Scénogrrraphie ») 2024, Fourni par l’auteur

Les métiers du musée révèlent de puissantes compétences, non seulement compatibles, mais favorisant les démarches écologiques. Trois principes partagés entre conservation préventive et écoresponsabilité apparaissent centraux : la durabilité, la sobriété et l’adaptation aux risques. La redirection écologique opérée par les missions et les normes muséales, plutôt que contre elles, semble ainsi produire les transformations les plus ambitieuses, les plus innovantes et les plus pérennes.

Notons que les approches françaises et canadiennes, principalement présentées dans l’ouvrage, comportent des nuances. Les musées québecquois étudiés ont une approche plus large, socio-écologique, intégrant l’ensemble des 17 Objectifs de développement durable (ODD), y compris les enjeux éducatifs, participatifs, inclusifs et décoloniaux. L’approche française sépare davantage les contenus de programmation et l’approche technique de la sobriété. Or, le « plafond de verre » qui semble se profiler invite à cumuler les deux approches pour une redirection écologique globale et robuste.

Dépasser le plafond de verre

De nombreux professionnels font part aujourd’hui de leur frustration : ils atteignent un plafond de verre, une fois réalisés les bilans carbone (dont plus de 80 % concernent les déplacements des visiteurs), les économies d’énergie et les dispositifs de réemploi. Les politiques publiques et l’engouement culturel baissent, les attaques contre les faits scientifiques relatifs au dérèglement climatiques sont nombreuses.

Les musées ont progressé en matière « d’efficacité écologique », ce qui leur permet de poursuivre le même niveau d’activité en utilisant moins d’énergie et de ressources, mais au risque de produire « un effet rebond » : cela « coûte moins », donc on fait plus. Encore trop rares sont ceux qui assument véritablement l’objectif de sobriété qui consiste à ralentir l’activité (allonger la durée des expositions, diminuer le nombre d’œuvres, les faire venir de moins loin) mais aussi à réinterroger la programmation, sa pertinence, son audience à l’aune des enjeux socio-écologiques.

Cela nécessite de repenser profondément, avec l’ensemble des professionnels, financeurs, territoires et publics, les projets scientifiques et culturels pour faire d’autres types de propositions, créer d’autres rituels, activer de nouvelles valeurs, rompre avec la logique « extractiviste » inhérente au musée moderne occidental – cette habitude de prélever des œuvres ou des objets pour les faire venir souvent de loin jusqu’à nos musées.

Deux pistes sont explorées en ouverture de l’ouvrage. La première est celle d’un musée conforté dans ses capacités à participer au soin des personnes et des écosystèmes et qui pourrait aussi « accepter » que les populations lui portent des attentions d’un nouveau type, plus actives, plus « dialoguantes ». Un musée engagé et, pour ou dans lequel on s’impliquerait, notamment sur les questions écologiques.

La seconde est très concrète. Au-delà de la sobriété volontaire, c’est à l’adaptation urgente au changement climatique que sont confrontés les musées avec l’augmentation de la fréquence et de l’intensité des épisodes de fortes chaleurs ou de pluie intense. L’étude menée par les Augures et Écoact montre que, en 2050, plus de 50 % des musées de France métropolitains connaîtront une hausse d’au moins 5 jours du nombre de jours très chauds et que 38 sont d’ores et déjà exposés directement au recul du trait de côte.

Les musées doivent mener des études de vulnérabilité afin de s’adapter (pour le bien des œuvres mais aussi des personnels et des publics) et d’intégrer ces enjeux au sein de leurs projets culturels et scientifiques. Garantir artificiellement la stabilité climatique devient une gageure, il faut penser différemment : en imaginant une autre saisonnalité de la programmation (ne pas utiliser les salles sous verrière en été par exemple), en développant l’inertie thermique des bâtiments ou en créant des microclimats ciblés pour les œuvres les plus fragiles.

Cette situation peut être angoissante et conduire à des maladapations. Par exemple, face à la hausse des températures, on peut être tenté d’installer de nouvelles climatisations qui vont produire de la chaleur extérieure et des émissions.

Pourtant, certaines équipes cherchent désormais à réfléchir à une redirection du musée accompagnée d’une coopération pour participer à l’adaptation de leur territoire, en s’appuyant sur des compétences spécifiquement muséales (musées qui deviennent lieux refuges en cas de canicules, végétalisation des abords dans le respect de l’esthétique patrimoniale…).

Le rôle d’intérêt général du musée pourrait, sans être remis en cause, se développer pour participer à sa propre adaptation mais aussi à celle de son environnement et de ses publics.


L’ouvrage collectif *Musée et Écologie », paru aux éditions de la Documentation française.

The Conversation

Lucie Marinier ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Quelle approche globale pour un musée sobre et citoyen ? – https://theconversation.com/quelle-approche-globale-pour-un-musee-sobre-et-citoyen-277563

Évaluations scolaires : noter plus tôt, à quel prix ? Une étude pointe des effets sur la santé mentale des filles

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Anna Linder, Researcher in Health Economics, Lund University

Des notes plus précoces pourraient fragiliser la santé mentale des adolescentes. LightField Studios/Shutterstock

À partir de quel âge donner des notes aux enfants ? En Suède, une réforme montre que des évaluations plus précoces peuvent creuser les inégalités de santé mentale entre filles et garçons.


Au Royaume-Uni, les écoles s’appuient de plus en plus sur les tests, les notes et des dispositifs dits « de responsabilisation » fondés sur la performance. En Angleterre, les inspections de l’Ofsted, l’organisme public chargé d’inspecter et d’évaluer les écoles, et les classements d’établissements renforcent l’attention portée à ces résultats mesurables. Des évolutions similaires ont eu lieu en Suède, où des réformes successives ont introduit des évaluations plus précoces et plus détaillées.

Ces environnements scolaires orientés vers la performance influencent le bien-être des jeunes. Pourtant, malgré les réformes fréquentes des systèmes d’évaluation, leurs conséquences psychologiques sont rarement au cœur des débats publics.

Notre dernière étude met en lien ces évolutions avec la hausse des troubles de santé mentale chez les jeunes. Elle montre que des évaluations plus précoces et plus formalisées peuvent accroître les troubles psychiques diagnostiqués cliniquement, en particulier chez les filles.




À lire aussi :
L’éternel débat des notes à l’école


Nos travaux portent sur une réforme suédoise introduite en 2012, qui a avancé le début de la notation officielle de la classe de quatrième (environ 14 ans) à celle de sixième (environ 12 ans). Autrement dit, les notes et les indications explicites de performance relative apparaissent désormais deux ans plus tôt qu’auparavant.

Pour en estimer les effets, nous avons comparé des enfants nés juste avant et juste après la date de mise en œuvre de la réforme. Comme l’exposition dépendait strictement de la date de naissance, les élèves de part et d’autre présentaient des caractéristiques similaires, à ceci près que certains recevaient des notes plus tôt que d’autres. Nous avons également tenu compte de certaines tendances de fond sur cette période, notamment de l’augmentation générale des diagnostics de troubles psychiques au fil du temps. Ce type de comparaison entre cohortes permet d’isoler l’effet propre d’une notation plus précoce sur la santé mentale.

Notre analyse s’appuie sur des registres nationaux appariés en éducation et en santé, couvrant plus de 520 000 enfants nés entre juillet 1992 et juin 2000. Nous avons examiné les diagnostics psychiatriques enregistrés en soins ambulatoires et hospitaliers au moment où les élèves entraient en classe de troisième (fin du collège).

Des notes plus précoces affectent la santé mentale des filles

L’introduction de notes plus tôt dans le parcours scolaire a entraîné une hausse des diagnostics de dépression et d’anxiété chez les filles, avec des effets particulièrement marqués chez celles dont les résultats scolaires se situent entre faibles et moyens. Chez les garçons, les effets sont plus limités et moins systématiques.

Parmi les filles, la part de celles diagnostiquées pour dépression ou anxiété est passée de 1,4 % à 2,0 %. Si cette hausse absolue (0,6 point de pourcentage) peut sembler modeste, les troubles psychiatriques à cet âge restent relativement rares. Elle correspond en réalité à une augmentation d’environ deux cinquièmes par rapport à la situation antérieure à la réforme.

Une adolescente, le visage enfoui dans ses mains, réconfortée par des adultes
Les filles qui ont commencé à recevoir des notes à un âge plus précoce seraient plus anxieuses.
SeventyFour/Shutterstock

Nos résultats suggèrent que la pression scolaire et la comparaison sociale sont des facteurs probables de cette hausse des troubles de santé mentale. Les notes rendent la performance plus visible dès un plus jeune âge, en indiquant clairement la position d’un élève par rapport à ses pairs. À un moment où la construction de soi est encore en cours, cela peut accroître la sensibilité à la comparaison et au sentiment d’échec.

Une explication possible tient à une plus grande sensibilité des filles aux retours sur leurs performances. Dans des travaux antérieurs, nous avons montré que lorsque les filles recevaient des notes plus favorables que ce que leurs performances mesurées laissaient prévoir, leur santé mentale s’améliorait. Cela suggère qu’elles sont particulièrement réceptives aux évaluations – et donc plus vulnérables lorsque la pression liée à la notation s’intensifie.

Des conséquences plus larges

Nos résultats indiquent que la pression scolaire pourrait contribuer aux écarts de santé mentale entre les sexes à l’adolescence. Si les filles ont davantage tendance à intérioriser la pression et le stress liés à l’évaluation, l’introduction de notes plus précoces pourrait, de manière non intentionnelle, accentuer des inégalités déjà bien documentées.

Nous ne soutenons pas que la notation soit intrinsèquement néfaste. Les notes peuvent motiver, orienter les apprentissages et informer les parents comme les enseignants. Mais leur calendrier et leur conception comptent. Lorsque l’évaluation devient plus formelle plus tôt dans la scolarité, des coûts psychologiques inattendus peuvent apparaître en parallèle des objectifs académiques.

À mesure que les systèmes de notation évoluent, les questions de calendrier et d’intensité méritent une attention particulière. Les écoles ne sont pas seulement des institutions qui mesurent la performance ; ce sont aussi des environnements où les jeunes construisent leur identité. Concevoir des systèmes éducatifs qui soutiennent à la fois les apprentissages et un développement équilibré suppose de prendre ces deux objectifs au sérieux.

Les politiques éducatives impliquent inévitablement des arbitrages. Les dispositifs pensés pour mesurer et élever le niveau façonnent aussi l’expérience quotidienne des élèves. Nos résultats suggèrent que lorsque les décideurs avancent l’âge des évaluations formelles, ils devraient mettre en balance leurs effets sur la santé mentale avec leurs bénéfices académiques.

Les politiques de responsabilisation doivent prendre en compte leurs effets psychologiques. Il ne s’agit pas d’abandonner la notation, mais de concevoir des systèmes d’évaluation adaptés au stade de développement des élèves, accompagnés de dispositifs de soutien permettant d’interpréter les retours de manière constructive.

Les élèves réagissent différemment à l’évaluation. Des réformes efficaces pour certains peuvent en fragiliser d’autres, en particulier ceux déjà sensibles à la pression de la performance. Suivre le bien-être en parallèle des résultats scolaires permet de repérer plus tôt d’éventuels effets indésirables.

The Conversation

Anna Linder reçoit des financements du Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare et de la Public Health Agency of Sweden.

Gawain Heckley reçoit actuellement des financements du Swedish Research Council, du Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare et de la Jan Wallanders och Tom Hedelius stiftelse.

Ulf Gerdtham reçoit des financements du Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research.

ref. Évaluations scolaires : noter plus tôt, à quel prix ? Une étude pointe des effets sur la santé mentale des filles – https://theconversation.com/evaluations-scolaires-noter-plus-tot-a-quel-prix-une-etude-pointe-des-effets-sur-la-sante-mentale-des-filles-281391

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the load mothers carry — a burden that’s still being ignored today

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jane E. Sanders, Associate Professor, King’s School of Social Work, Western University

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated and brought into focus the ongoing disproportionate burden on mothers when it comes to household logistics, child care and financial inequity. It also revealed just how deeply embedded and structurally reinforced that burden is.

When labour that had previously been a shared social responsibility shifted into individual households, the load fell mainly to women. But perhaps even more important is that the true impact of this burden was invisible — even to women themselves.

Data over three years, from 2020 to 2023 — the height of the pandemic — laid bare the reality of a poorly scaffolded social structure. What had been seen as informal or “natural” for women to take on was, in fact, an uneven distribution of labour and responsibility.

That reality has clear economic effects. Canadian women earn approximately 69 per cent of the average salary of men. Mothers’ salaries also decrease by 49 per cent in the year after a child is born and 34 per cent 10 years later, while fathers’ salaries are largely unaffected.

This disparity — often referred to as the motherhood gap or child penalty — increases over time, crosses generations and is rooted in how societies value and distribute care work.

Studying families during COVID-19

Even before the pandemic, women were often responsible for the majority of housework and child care.

This was the status quo when COVID-19 arrived, as social isolation regulations increased family mental-health concerns while simultaneously decreasing social support.

Between January 2021 and August 2023, qualitative data was collected through semi-structured interviews and focus groups that included 113 people — social work students and professionals from King’s University College at Western University’s School of Social Work and the local school board — to examine the impact of COVID-19 on families who participated in the first three years of our Support and Aid to Families Electronically (SAFE) program.

Participants were asked how families were impacted during COVID-19 and the associated restrictions. We did not expect the disproportionate cost of these increased household responsibilities to be invisible.

Our social systems position women, particularly mothers, as the primary load-bearing point, shouldering a concentrated burden within families. When the already inadequate scaffolding of social structures is removed, as it was during COVID-19, the pressure is too concentrated. Policies, social expectations and workplace culture reinforce these imbalances.

Inequality hiding in plain sight

There were stories of mothers juggling working from home with children’s daily needs, balancing in-person work without child care and facing unemployment and financial peril. After each story, and among other questions, we asked if they thought any of this was related to their gender.

Overwhelmingly, the women said, “No.”

The unequal burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on women was evident in the new roles they were required to undertake, the stress associated with these roles and the psychological and emotional impact of these increased expectations.

However, the concentrated weight of this load was not recognized by those bearing it.

The participants in our study did not identify the stories they shared — of job loss, of being an in-home caregiver (daycare provider, food preparer, entertainer, social support) or of providing mental-health case management and support when everything, including in-school learning, closed — as being connected to the fact that they are women.

The responses revealed how deeply gendered expectations are internalized, framed as circumstance or coincidence rather than inequality.

For example, some of the women said they took on more of the household burden simply because they happened to be the ones who were home during the day, while others said they took on more because they were the one working outside of the home during the day. One participant said:

“Whoever was at home dealing with [our] three children, [they’re] not really doing any of the household stuff. And that just happened to be my husband who was always home. [I would] come home [after having] worked, I now deal with kids and dinner, and then I’m also doing all of the household things. This was burdensome, but I don’t really think it was because I [am a woman].”

Even when the cost of this burden was clear, the fact that it was gendered remained hidden. Another said:

“I don’t think I closed down the business because of being a woman. It was just a lot to handle. It was just draining on a day-to-day.”

It was understood that if women are unable to bear the load, foundational social structures could fracture, as one mother observed:

“My mental health had the greatest impact on the mental health and emotional regulation of the entire household.”

The cost of ignoring the burden

There are profound positives to motherhood, and conceding the need for equity and balance does not contradict them. Rather, acknowledging the disproportionate responsibilities related to household well-being, child care, education and financial equity validates women’s struggle to keep up. It also challenges internalized dominant messages for all of us.

The mental health and educational impact of COVID-19 on children, youth and families will be longstanding. The impact on parents, particularly mothers, will be ongoing.

Only once we truly acknowledge this disproportionate burden can we discuss how these expectations fail everyone, particularly during times of structural instability.

Until caregiving and emotional labour are recognized as shared social responsibilities, rather than private obligations borne disproportionately by women, crises like COVID-19 will continue to deepen existing inequalities.

The Conversation

Jane E. Sanders received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council grant number 430-2021-00162.

ref. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the load mothers carry — a burden that’s still being ignored today – https://theconversation.com/the-covid-19-pandemic-exposed-the-load-mothers-carry-a-burden-thats-still-being-ignored-today-275922

Wars destroy lives and the climate. Why aren’t we counting military emissions?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Tamara Krawchenko, Associate Professor, School of Public Administration, University of Victoria

When delegates gathered for COP30 in Belém, Brazil in November 2025, they scrutinized various sectors of the global economy for their contributions to rising greenhouse gases. Agriculture, aviation, steel, cement — all were on the table. One topic not discussed was war.

This isn’t a minor oversight. Militaries are significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has generated an estimated 311 million tonnes of what’s known as CO₂ equivalent, comparable to the combined annual emissions of Belgium, New Zealand, Austria and Portugal. CO₂ equivalent is the metric used to compare the warming impact of various greenhouse gases to carbon dioxide.

Recently published research calculated that the first 15 months of Israel’s war in Gaza generated more than 33 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, comparable to the combined 2023 annual emissions of Costa Rica and Slovenia.

In February 2026, Israel and the United States launched a war against Iran, joining a long list of other conflicts where emissions go uncounted in global inventories.

These are massive emissions, and they are generated with no formal mechanism to record, report or attribute them, and no accountability for the climate costs that affect people in conflict zones and far beyond.

A recent article by Neta Crawford, a researcher with the Cost of War project at Brown University, highlights how armed forces, militarization and war fuel climate change. She argues that military emissions and conflict-related emissions remain undercounted, even though they undermine efforts to mitigate climate change.

The military emissions gap

Estimates suggest militaries and their supply chains account for approximately 5.5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, which is enough to make them the world’s fourth largest emitter if counted as a country. And that figure only covers peacetime.

This is what researchers call the military emissions gap: the difference in emissions between what governments report and what their armed forces actually emit.

The problem starts with the rules. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), countries have been exempt from fully reporting military emissions since the Kyoto Protocol negotiations in the 1990s. The United States successfully lobbied for the exclusion on national security grounds.

The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced voluntary reporting. However, as a 2025 briefing from the Conflict and Environment Observatory and Griffith University made clear, the result is a system that is “patchy, incomplete or missing altogether.”

The top three military spenders — the U.S., China and Russia — either submit no data or incomplete, non-disaggregated figures. This is a structural blind spot that excludes one of the most carbon-intensive sectors from meaningful accountability.

What wars cost the climate

Crawford’s study on Gaza provides a comprehensive account of the war’s full carbon cycle. It found that direct combat emissions — jets, rockets, artillery, military vehicles — account for just 1.3 million of the 33.2 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.

The vast majority, more than 31 million tonnes, are projected to come from the reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure: nearly 450,000 apartments, over 3,000 kilometres of roads, schools, hospitals and water systems. Rebuilding what war destroys is, climatically speaking, the biggest act of war of all.

A report on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War found that direct combat emissions constitute 37 per cent out of total emissions between February 2022 and 2026. The war has ignited thousands of fires in forests and wetlands, accounting for 23 per cent of its total carbon footprint.

Russia’s attacks on electrical infrastructure have further released sulphur hexafluoride, a greenhouse gas 24,000 times more potent than CO₂, from high-voltage switching gear. And the rerouting of civilian aircraft around Ukrainian and Russian airspace has added an estimated 20 million extra tonnes of CO₂ equivalent compared to pre-invasion flight paths.

In Iran, it is estimated that the U.S.-Israel war has unleashed over five million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent — largely from infrastructure destruction and energy-related impacts.

None of this appears in any country’s reports on emissions to the UNFCCC.

What needs to change

In July 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered an advisory opinion establishing that states have binding obligations to assess, report and mitigate harms to the climate system. In a separate declaration, ICJ judge Sarah Cleveland stated that those obligations extend to harms resulting from armed conflicts and other military activities.

The UN General Assembly has called for Russia to compensate Ukraine for all damages resulting from its invasion. When wars of aggression are launched, the emissions generated in fighting them, surviving them and rebuilding belong on the aggressor’s carbon ledger. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it generated a climate debt on behalf of the entire planet. The same can be said of other aggressors.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN body responsible for assessing the science related to climate change. The IPCC is currently in its seventh assessment cycle, with reports expected in late 2029.

This assessment cycle must include a dedicated report for conflict emissions covering infrastructure destruction, fighting and post-conflict reconstruction. The UNFCCC must make reporting military emissions mandatory and develop a framework for attributing conflict emissions under its Enhanced Transparency Framework.

Civil society and academia have already done the hard work of showing it can be done. Organizations like the Conflict and Environment Observatory have built methodologies from scratch, using open-source data. The science exists. What’s lacking is the political will to enshrine it in global climate governance.

The richest countries spend roughly 30 times more on their armed forces than they contribute in climate finance to developing countries. Global military spending has reached a record $2.7 trillion. This is more than the total $2.2 trillion invested globally in clean energy in 2025.

As conflicts proliferate, the world is committing to an ever-larger unaccounted carbon liability. The climate finance gap is also likely to get worse as countries cut international development aid to direct funds to higher military spending.

Every degree of warming we are trying to avoid is undermined by wars. Accounting for conflict emissions is a vital way to make climate science whole.

This article was co-authored by researchers who are part of the Accelerating Community Energy Transformation initiative: Curran Crawford, Basma Majerbi, Madeleine McPherson (University of Victoria) and Samaneh Shahgaldi (Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières).

The Conversation

Tamara Krawchenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Wars destroy lives and the climate. Why aren’t we counting military emissions? – https://theconversation.com/wars-destroy-lives-and-the-climate-why-arent-we-counting-military-emissions-281129

L’industrie automobile n’échappe pas à un « effet Doppler stratégique »

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Eric Viardot, professeur de stratégie d’entreprise, SKEMA Business School

L’« effet Doppler » explique pourquoi le son d’une Formule 1 paraît plus aigu lorsqu’elle s’approche et plus grave lorsqu’elle s’éloigne. MotorsportPhotographyF1/Shutterstock

Lorsque des entreprises évoluent selon des trajectoires et à des vitesses très différentes, leurs signaux concurrentiels peuvent être mal compris ou sous‑évalués. On peut y voir une analogie avec l’« effet Doppler » en physique, qui explique que le son d’une ambulance est plus grave ou plus aigu si on ne va pas à la même vitesse qu’elle. Une entreprise pense affronter un constructeur automobile classique ; elle se retrouve face à une entreprise technologique intégrée. On croit concurrencer un acteur à bas coût ; on découvre une organisation industrielle cohérente et rapide.


Les tensions actuelles sur le marché du véhicule électrique, illustrées par la fermeture de l’usine de Poissy de Stellantis, les résultats fragilisés de Renault avec 10,9 milliards d’euros de perte, Ford avec 11 milliards de dollars (plus de 9,38 milliards d’euros, ndlr) sur le seul quatrième trimestre 2025, ou Volkswagen avec un bénéfice en chute de 44,3 %, à 6,9 milliards d’euros, dépassent le simple ralentissement de la demande.

Dans un contexte d’investissements massifs, de marges sous pression et de concurrence chinoise accrue, la transition vers l’électrique coûte plus cher et rapporte moins vite que prévu.

Cette situation révèle un mécanisme récurrent : les entreprises établies sous-estiment souvent les nouveaux concurrents qui transforment leur industrie.

Effet Doppler

Christian Doppler, mathématicien et physicien autrichien (1803-1853).
Wikimedia

Toutes les entreprises ne sont pas condamnées face au changement. Comme je l’ai montré dans mes travaux sur la longévité des entreprises dans le monde, certaines traversent les siècles : plus de 1 700 ont plus de 150 ans et environ 250 existent depuis plus de quatre siècles. Leur endurance ne tient pas à la chance, mais à leur capacité à anticiper, à comprendre leurs clients et à percevoir correctement l’évolution de leurs concurrents. La plupart disparaissent faute d’avoir su s’adapter au marché ou d’avoir mal interprété l’arrivée de nouveaux rivaux.

En physique, l’effet Doppler désigne la modification de la fréquence d’une onde lorsque la source et l’observateur sont en mouvement relatif. Il explique pourquoi le son d’une ambulance est plus aigu lorsqu’elle s’approche et plus grave lorsqu’elle s’éloigne ; les ondes sont comprimées devant la source et étirées derrière elle. Ce phénomène est utilisé en météorologie, où l’analyse des fréquences émises et reçues permet de mesurer des vitesses (ou des flux) invisibles à l’œil nu et d’analyser les mouvements internes des systèmes atmosphériques.

En stratégie, un phénomène métaphoriquement comparable apparaît. La vision qu’une entreprise a d’une autre est d’autant plus déformée qu’elles ne se développent pas ni ne se transforment à la même vitesse. Plus les écarts de trajectoire et de vitesse d’évolution sont importants, plus la compréhension de la concurrence devient difficile. Ce décalage peut conduire à des décisions tardives ou inadaptées.

Un écart difficile à combler

C’est ce qui s’est produit avec Tesla. Beaucoup de constructeurs traditionnels ont vu en premier lieu une voiture électrique performante avec un beau design. Ils ont pensé que le défi consistait à proposer un modèle équivalent avec la même autonomie, la même accélération et le même style.

Tesla n’était pas un constructeur automobile, mais une entreprise technologique produisant des voitures. Son avantage repose sur le logiciel, les mises à jour à distance et l’intégration des batteries. Là où un constructeur classique lance une nouvelle version tous les cinq à sept ans, Tesla peut améliorer à distance un véhicule déjà vendu ; la voiture évolue. Cette logique transforme la relation client, mais aussi le modèle économique avec davantage de services, de données, d’interactions continues.




À lire aussi :
De Ford à Tesla : ce que l’automobile nous apprend sur l’art de s’adapter


Cette différence de rythme crée un écart difficile à combler pour des organisations historiquement structurées autour de cycles industriels longs, de fournisseurs multiples et de hiérarchies complexes.

Là où un constructeur classique renouvelle un modèle tous les cinq à sept ans – comme Renault avec la Clio ou Peugeot avec la 208 – Tesla améliore en continu un véhicule déjà vendu. Le client ne change pas de voiture ; c’est la voiture qui se transforme. Le signal était visible, mais perçu avec retard, à travers un prisme industriel ancien.

Ce décalage n’a été pleinement reconnu que tardivement. Jim Farley, directeur général de Ford, après le démontage d’une Tesla Model 3 par ses équipes, déclarait : « Nous avons été très étonnés. Quand nous avons démonté la Model 3, ce que nous avons découvert était stupéfiant. » Herbert Diess, alors président-directeur général de Volkswagen, qualifiait la Tesla Model Y de « voiture de référence » pour son groupe.

BYD et l’« effet Doppler stratégique » chinois

Toujours dans l’industrie automobile, l’« effet Doppler stratégique » est également observable dans le cas plus récent de BYD et ceux d’autres constructeurs chinois, tels que Geely, SAIC Motor, NIO ou XPeng. Longtemps perçus comme de simples acteurs à bas coûts, ils ont été évalués surtout sous l’angle du prix. En 2024, Carlos Tavares, PDG de Stellantis, déclarait :

« Pas question de laisser le marché des voitures électriques à 20 000 euros ou moins aux mains des Chinois. »

Cette focalisation tarifaire a masqué l’essentiel. La concurrence chinoise repose sur des cycles de développement plus courts, une intégration verticale poussée et une maîtrise industrielle de la batterie. BYD conçoit et fabrique batteries, moteurs et composants critiques, réduisant coûts, délais et dépendances. Le géant chinois des batteries pour véhicules électriques, CATL, et BYD concentrent à eux seuls plus de la moitié de la production mondiale de batteries pour véhicules électriques. La batterie représentant environ de 30 % à 40 % du coût d’un véhicule électrique, cette maîtrise constitue un avantage économique et stratégique décisif.

L’échec du projet européen de Northvolt illustre la difficulté à rattraper tardivement cette distance. L’investissement était massif mais insuffisant pour combler l’écart accumulé en compétences industrielles et en chaînes d’approvisionnement. Là encore, la menace était visible, mais mal évaluée à distance.

Cette métaphore de l’« effet Doppler stratégique » complète les analyses des chercheurs Clayton Christensen, Rajesh Chandy et Gerard Tellis sur les biais internes qui freinent l’adoption des innovations de rupture. Contrairement à la physique, où le signal est effectivement modifié par le mouvement, l’analogie met ici en lumière un biais de connaissance et d’interprétation organisationnelle, lié à des cadres d’analyse inadaptés à des concurrents évoluant à un autre rythme.

La malédiction des leaders établis

Dans le cas du véhicule électrique, les constructeurs historiques ont bien investi dans la technologie, mais souvent en interprétant la transition comme un simple remplacement du moteur thermique par la batterie, alors qu’il s’agissait d’un changement de système. L’échec des batteries Blue Solutions du groupe de Vincent Bolloré, fondées sur une technologie propriétaire peu compatible avec les standards industriels émergents, et les limites des premières générations de la Renault Zoé, conçues comme une évolution du produit plutôt que comme une reconfiguration d’ensemble, illustrent cette lecture partielle. Dans les deux cas, l’enjeu était avant tout systémique, et non uniquement technologique.

L’histoire industrielle montre que les leaders peuvent se réinventer, comme l’ont fait, par exemple, Michelin, Schneider Electric ou Safran pour ne prendre que des exemples d’entreprises françaises. Ces transformations reposent moins sur le volume des investissements que sur la capacité à voir les concurrents tels qu’ils sont réellement dans des industries en constante évolution.

À l’ère des transitions rapides, l’analogie de l’« effet Doppler stratégique » rappelle une vérité simple : mal comprendre la concurrence peut être aussi dangereux que la voir arriver trop tard.

The Conversation

Eric Viardot ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. L’industrie automobile n’échappe pas à un « effet Doppler stratégique » – https://theconversation.com/lindustrie-automobile-nechappe-pas-a-un-effet-doppler-strategique-276650

Canada’s United Nations abstention on slavery recognition wasn’t neutral — it was a choice

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Julie Ada Tchoukou, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

When Canada abstained from a recent vote at the United Nations on a resolution recognizing the transatlantic slave trade as the gravest crime against humanity, the decision may have appeared cautious, even procedural.

It was neither.

Abstention, in this situation, is not neutral position. It’s a firm stance — one that carries legal, political and historical consequences.

A vote about legal meaning, not just history

At first glance, the resolution might seem symbolic; a statement about a past atrocity with a moral status that’s already globally accepted. But in international law, recognition is never merely descriptive. It helps define legal norms and the scope of responsibility.

The category of “crimes against humanity” has evolved significantly since its early articulation at the Nuremberg Trials in the 1940s. What began as a response to the atrocities of the Second World War has developed into an important pillar of international criminal and human rights law.

Identifying the transatlantic slave trade as the gravest crime against humanity isn’t simply restating history. It situates that history within the legal architecture that governs how we understand atrocity, responsibility and redress today.

The resolution passed with 123 votes in favour. The United States, Argentina and Israel voted against it, while 52 states abstained, including the United Kingdom, Canada and all European Union member states, including Spain.

By abstaining, Canada did not opt out of a symbolic gesture. It declined to participate in shaping the legal meaning of one of international law’s most significant categories.

The myth of absention as neutrality

In multilateral diplomacy, absention is usually framed as a middle ground; a way to avoid taking sides. But in practice, especially in process of creating legal norms, absention can function as a form of resistance.

Votes at the UN General Assembly are part of how international norms are consolidated, clarified and sometimes contested. When states abstain from resolutions that seek to expand or develop those norms, they signal hesitation about the direction of that particular legal development.

Canada’s absention therefore raises questions about alignment. It places the country neither among those states affirming a stronger legal characterization of the slave trade nor among those openly opposing it. Instead, Canada now occupies a position of ambiguity — one that may reflect concerns about legal implications, including potential claims for reparations.

But ambiguity isn’t without impact. In the politics of international law, declining to affirm a legal norm can slow its consolidation and weaken its force.

Why recognition still matters

If the transatlantic slave trade is widely acknowledged as a profound injustice, why does formal recognition matter? Because recognition is tied to how harm is measured, narrated and addressed.

Efforts to grapple with the legacies of slavery increasingly involve questions of quantification, of loss, of dispossession and of enduring inequality. Legal recognition, including reports of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and the 2001 Durban Declaration and Programme of Action, shapes these process by establishing what counts as a harm of the highest order and therefore what kinds of responses are justified.

This is particularly evident in ongoing debates about reparations, where claims are often grounded in the characterization of slavery and the slave trade as crimes against humanity. Without clear and consistent recognition, these claims face higher legal and political barriers.

In this sense, the resolution isn’t only about the past. It’s about the frameworks through which historical injustice is made visible in the present.

Waves are seen crashing at the base of the Cape Coast Castle.
The Cape Coast Castle in Ghana in October 2018. It was a slave facility used in the trans-Atlantic slave trade for more than 100 years.
(AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

A choice with consequences

Canada has long positioned itself as a supporter of international human rights and the rule of law. Abstaining on the UN’s slavery resolution is at odds with that self-perception.

States may have reasons to be cautious in endorsing specific resolutions about legal responsibility. But those reasons should be clearly stated and open to scrutiny.

Absention avoids that scrutiny. It allows states to sidestep difficult questions about history, law and accountability while maintaining the appearance of neutrality.

But there is no neutral ground in the recognition of crimes against humanity. There are only choices about what to affirm, what to resist and what to leave unresolved.

Canada has made one such choice. It should be prepared to explain it.

The Conversation

Julie Ada Tchoukou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Canada’s United Nations abstention on slavery recognition wasn’t neutral — it was a choice – https://theconversation.com/canadas-united-nations-abstention-on-slavery-recognition-wasnt-neutral-it-was-a-choice-281062

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the load mothers carry — and that burden is still being ignored today

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jane E. Sanders, Associate Professor, King’s School of Social Work, Western University

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated and brought into focus the ongoing disproportionate burden on mothers when it comes to household logistics, child care and financial inequity. It also revealed just how deeply embedded and structurally reinforced that burden is.

When labour that had previously been a shared social responsibility shifted into individual households, the load fell mainly to women. But perhaps even more important is that the true impact of this burden was invisible — even to women themselves.

Data over three years, from 2020 to 2023 — the height of the pandemic — laid bare the reality of a poorly scaffolded social structure. What had been seen as informal or “natural” for women to take on was, in fact, an uneven distribution of labour and responsibility.

That reality has clear economic effects. Canadian women earn approximately 69 per cent of the average salary of men. Mothers’ salaries also decrease by 49 per cent in the year after a child is born and 34 per cent 10 years later, while fathers’ salaries are largely unaffected.

This disparity — often referred to as the motherhood gap or child penalty — increases over time, crosses generations and is rooted in how societies value and distribute care work.

Studying families during COVID-19

Even before the pandemic, women were often responsible for the majority of housework and child care.

This was the status quo when COVID-19 arrived, as social isolation regulations increased family mental-health concerns while simultaneously decreasing social support.

Between January 2021 and August 2023, qualitative data was collected through semi-structured interviews and focus groups that included 113 people — social work students and professionals from King’s University College at Western University’s School of Social Work and the local school board — to examine the impact of COVID-19 on families who participated in the first three years of our Support and Aid to Families Electronically (SAFE) program.

Participants were asked how families were impacted during COVID-19 and the associated restrictions. We did not expect the disproportionate cost of these increased household responsibilities to be invisible.

Our social systems position women, particularly mothers, as the primary load-bearing point, shouldering a concentrated burden within families. When the already inadequate scaffolding of social structures is removed, as it was during COVID-19, the pressure is too concentrated. Policies, social expectations and workplace culture reinforce these imbalances.

Inequality hiding in plain sight

There were stories of mothers juggling working from home with children’s daily needs, balancing in-person work without child care and facing unemployment and financial peril. After each story, and among other questions, we asked if they thought any of this was related to their gender.

Overwhelmingly, the women said, “No.”

The unequal burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on women was evident in the new roles they were required to undertake, the stress associated with these roles and the psychological and emotional impact of these increased expectations.

However, the concentrated weight of this load was not recognized by those bearing it.

The participants in our study did not identify the stories they shared — of job loss, of being an in-home caregiver (daycare provider, food preparer, entertainer, social support) or of providing mental-health case management and support when everything, including in-school learning, closed — as being connected to the fact that they are women.

The responses revealed how deeply gendered expectations are internalized, framed as circumstance or coincidence rather than inequality.

For example, some of the women said they took on more of the household burden simply because they happened to be the ones who were home during the day, while others said they took on more because they were the one working outside of the home during the day. One participant said:

“Whoever was at home dealing with [our] three children, [they’re] not really doing any of the household stuff. And that just happened to be my husband who was always home. [I would] come home [after having] worked, I now deal with kids and dinner, and then I’m also doing all of the household things. This was burdensome, but I don’t really think it was because I [am a woman].”

Even when the cost of this burden was clear, the fact that it was gendered remained hidden. Another said:

“I don’t think I closed down the business because of being a woman. It was just a lot to handle. It was just draining on a day-to-day.”

It was understood that if women are unable to bear the load, foundational social structures could fracture, as one mother observed:

“My mental health had the greatest impact on the mental health and emotional regulation of the entire household.”

The cost of ignoring the burden

There are profound positives to motherhood, and conceding the need for equity and balance does not contradict them. Rather, acknowledging the disproportionate responsibilities related to household well-being, child care, education and financial equity validates women’s struggle to keep up. It also challenges internalized dominant messages for all of us.

The mental health and educational impact of COVID-19 on children, youth and families will be longstanding. The impact on parents, particularly mothers, will be ongoing.

Only once we truly acknowledge this disproportionate burden can we discuss how these expectations fail everyone, particularly during times of structural instability.

Until caregiving and emotional labour are recognized as shared social responsibilities, rather than private obligations borne disproportionately by women, crises like COVID-19 will continue to deepen existing inequalities.

The Conversation

Jane E. Sanders received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council grant number 430-2021-00162.

ref. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the load mothers carry — and that burden is still being ignored today – https://theconversation.com/the-covid-19-pandemic-exposed-the-load-mothers-carry-and-that-burden-is-still-being-ignored-today-275922

Gulf state cooperation has long been shaped by the threat of Iran − but shows of unity belie division

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Firmesk Rahim, PhD Student, UMass Boston

Leaders attend the 45th Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in Kuwait City, Kuwait on Dec.01, 2024. Amiri Diwan of Kuwait/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images

Arab Gulf countries, battered economically and physically by the war with Iran, were keen to put on a united front at a key regional meeting on April 28, 2026.

Gathering in the Saudi city Jeddah, representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council warned the Iranian government in Tehran that an attack on any one of its six members would be taken as an attack on all. Rejecting Iran’s claims to control of the Strait of Hormuz, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani later described the summit as embodying “the unified Gulf stance” over the conflict.

The show of togetherness may seem at odds with other recent developments that have seen members of the GCC split over policy and vision for the region – not least the United Arab Emirate’s decision to quit the oil cartel OPEC.

But to followers of Gulf politics, like myself, the scene felt familiar. Time and again, Iran has accomplished what no outside mediator could: It has pushed divided Gulf Arab states together. When tensions rise, the monarchies of the GCC – Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman – tend to stand united, at least publicly.

From revolution to coordination

The modern Gulf security environment was profoundly shaped by the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Iran shares a narrow and strategically vital waterway with the Gulf states but has long differed in identity and outlook. Specifically, Iran’s Shiite revolutionary model contrasts with the Sunni-led monarchies across the region.

Before 1979, when Iran was ruled by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi Iran and Saudi Arabia, the largest of the Sunni Arab Gulf states, were regarded by Washington as “twin pillars,” protecting American interests in the Middle East. Their relationship was cooperative, but not close.

Then the emergence of the Islamic Republic after the revolution in 1979 introduced a new kind of regional actor – one defined not only by state power but also by Shiite ideological ambition.

Gulf monarchies’ concern over both external security and internal stability was reinforced by the 1979 Grand Mosque seizure in Saudi Arabia, when Islamist militants seized Islam’s holiest site. The event, alongside Iran’s revolution, exposed the vulnerability of Gulf regimes to religiously driven upheaval.

A large plume of smoke is seen amongst buildings
The 1979 siege at Mecca’s Grand Mosque raised concern over security across the Gulf region.
AFP via Getty Images

In response to this revolution ideology, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE established the GCC in 1981. Although officially framed as a platform for economic and political cooperation, the organization also reflected shared security concerns and Arab identity.

But unity had limits. Member states did not all view threats to their respective regimes in the same way.

Saudi Arabia worried about U.S. pressure for reforms; Kuwait feared neighboring Iraq; Bahrain was concerned about Iran’s influence over its own Shiite population; and the UAE worried about both Iran and its own large foreign workforce. Meanwhile, Oman and Qatar followed a more independent or balanced approach.

These differences would shape the trajectory of the GCC, and Arab Gulf states’ relationship with Tehran.

The eight-year Iran–Iraq War, which began in 1980, brought to the fore fears of Iran’s influence across the region. While Oman declared neutrality, other GCC states supported Iraq by funneling billions of dollars to the regime of Saddam Hussein.

This revealed an early pattern: Gulf states could coordinate politically, but avoided acting as a single strategic bloc. The GCC broadly favored Iraq as a counterweight to Iran, but there was no unified strategy or formal policy.

Security dependence

The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 reshaped the region’s security structure again. In early 1991, the move prompted a U.S.-led coalition, including Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, to expel Iraqi forces. Saudi Arabia’s role was especially significant: It not only hosted coalition forces but also actively participated militarily – marking one of the first major episodes in which a GCC state was directly involved in the defense of another member.

Soldiers are seen walking in a line in the desert.
American troops at Dhahran airport in Saudi Arabia during Operation Desert Shield.
Eric Bouvet/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images

During – and especially after – the Gulf War, GCC states deepened their reliance on the United States, agreeing to host U.S. military bases and expanding long-term defense cooperation.

This external security umbrella provided a measure of stability, but it also introduced new differences. While Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain aligned more closely with Washington’s strategic framework, others – notably Oman and Qatar – maintained a more flexible approach. As a result, the appearance of unity coexisted with growing variation in national strategies.

This pattern has continued in recent years, significantly through diplomatic moves to normalize ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords. While the UAE and Bahrain moved quickly to formalize ties with Israel, others remained more cautious.

The effort to contain Iran

When it comes to combating Iranian influence, GCC states have long played different roles.

Oman has consistently acted as a mediator, maintaining open channels with Tehran and facilitating quiet diplomacy — including back-channel talks between Iran and Western states.

Qatar also kept communication open, partly because of shared economic interests with Iran – particularly the management of the North Field/South Pars gas reserve.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, by contrast, have generally taken a more cautious and at times confrontational stance toward Iran. Both view Iran as a regional competitor and a source of security concerns, particularly due to Tehran’s missile program and its support for ideologically opposed non-state actors.

This contrasting approach to Iran across the GCC allows different states to engage Tehran through multiple channels, but it also makes it harder to form a consistent, unified GCC strategy.

A changing regional balance

The 2003 Iraq War marked a turning point in the GCC-Iran dynamic. The removal of Iraq as a regional counterweight allowed Iran to expand its influence.

And this development sharpened divisions within the GCC.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasingly viewed Iran as a direct strategic threat requiring containment. Qatar and Oman, however, emphasized dialogue and mediation.

These differences became more visible during the Qatar diplomatic crisis of 2017. The dispute centered around Qatar’s support for Islamist political groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, considered a terrorist organization by the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain severed diplomatic ties with Qatar and imposed a full air, land and sea blockade in June 2017. The three nations accused Qatar of supporting extremist groups and maintaining close ties with Iran. Isolated, Qatar relied on Iran for airspace, trade routes and supplies, strengthening the relationship between the countries. The blockade eventually ended in January 2021, when the parties signed a declaration restoring diplomatic and trade relations at a GCC summit in Saudi Arabia.

GCC under attack

The series of events that began with the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Iranian-backed Hamas in Israel shook up GCC relations with Tehran.

In June 2025, in response to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, Tehran struck a U.S. base in Qatar – the first such attack on a GCC state by Tehran.

At an extraordinary meeting in Doha, Qatar’s capital, GCC members pledged full solidarity with Qatar and strongly condemned the Iranian attack.

But it was not enough to prevent Iran from attacking all six GCC states in response to the ongoing conflict begun in February 2026 by U.S. and Israel.

The subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting 20% of global oil supplies, has sparked what many see as the biggest crisis in the Gulf since the inception of the GCC.

The GCC responded by emphasizing collective security and unity. But yet again, the public show of togetherness masks divergent views on how to respond. When the war ends, each state will likely return to its own strategic and foreign policy approach.

Understanding the pattern

Since 1979, Tehran’s actions in the Gulf region have exposed two parallel developments. On the surface, there are shared concerns among GCC members and public shows of unity. But underneath this facade of unity, each state has continued to develop its own national priorities and risk tolerance.

The combination of these two factors helps explain why the GCC often appears unified during crises, while remaining internally divided over how to respond to them.

Rather than viewing the GCC as a fully cohesive bloc, it may be more accurate to see it as a framework where cooperation and disagreement coexist.

The Conversation

Firmesk Rahim does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Gulf state cooperation has long been shaped by the threat of Iran − but shows of unity belie division – https://theconversation.com/gulf-state-cooperation-has-long-been-shaped-by-the-threat-of-iran-but-shows-of-unity-belie-division-280692

Netanyahu has pledged to ‘finish the job’ against Hezbollah. It’s a promise he can’t deliver on

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Martin Kear, Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire three weeks ago. The violence, however, hasn’t stopped.

In recent days, Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 40 people and the military has issued evacuation orders for residents of ten villages and towns in southern Lebanon, where it has established a security buffer zone.

According to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this zone is needed to protect Israel from future attacks by the Hezbollah militant group. He said it is “much stronger, more intense, more continuous, and more solid than we had previously”.

Critics, however, contend Israel is adopting the “Gaza playbook” in this buffer zone, mirroring its actions in Gaza after a fragile ceasefire was agreed to last October.

Militarily, Israel is hitting an already-weakened Hezbollah as hard as it can to deplete its capabilities and force it out of its southern Lebanon stronghold.

Israel calls this strategy “mowing the grass”. It has long viewed this strategy as the best way to establish a level of deterrence against Hamas and Hezbollah, which cannot be defeated through conventional military means.

Like it did in Gaza, Israel is also aiming to make the buffer zone uninhabitable for residents. In late March, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz declared:

All houses in villages near the Lebanese border will be destroyed, in accordance with the model used in Rafah and Beit Hanoun in Gaza, in order to permanently remove the threats near the border to northern residents.

As part of this, Israel has destroyed all the bridges across the Litani River, effectively isolating southern Lebanon from the rest of the country. It is also systematically destroying or severely damaging towns, villages and infrastructure in the region.

This “Gaza playbook” has come with a significant human cost. Since this latest conflict with Hezbollah began in early March, Israel’s attacks have killed more than 2,600 Lebanese and displaced another 1.2 million from their homes.




Read more:
Israeli threats to occupy or annex south Lebanon dust off a decades-old playbook


Netanyahu is becoming trapped

Yet, despite achieving many successes against Hezbollah, Netanyahu is in danger of overreaching in his claims to be able to defeat one of Israel’s nemeses.

For decades, successive Israeli governments, particularly those headed by Netanyahu, have convinced the Israeli public that Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in an existential struggle.

Many Israelis now expect Netanyahu to deliver on his promise and finally rid them of this threat forever.

In a recent poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute, 80% of respondents supported continuing the fight against Hezbollah irrespective of any possible peace deal between the US and Iran, and even if this created tensions with the Trump administration.

This poses a political threat to Netanyahu as he faces becoming trapped between two opposing realities.

Delivering on a false promise

The first centres on the “mowing the grass” strategy. This strategy has long served as good propaganda and as an exemplar of the government protecting its people. But it was never intended to completely defeat the threats posed by Hezbollah or Hamas.
When it comes to Hezbollah, Israel’s military simply cannot completely defeat a resistance movement that is so embedded in the social, political and cultural fabric of Lebanon. This would require not just a military victory, but the subjugation of its supporters and the delegitimisation of its ideology.

The intention of the “mowing the grass” strategy is to manage the threats posed by Hezbollah and Hamas, not destroy them.

If Israel is able to cause substantial damage to their political and military capabilities – in addition to destroying local infrastructure – the groups are then forced to focus on survival and revival, rather than on threatening Israel.

From Israel’s perspective, this provides some breathing room until the threat reemerges and it is time to “mow the grass” again.

From a political perspective, this strategy also allows Israel to justify its continuous military operations. This has been the cornerstone of Netanyahu’s political revival since the Hamas attacks of 2023, allowing him to maintain a constant sense of crisis that requires ever-increasing levels of violence.

But Netanyahu has changed the narrative, shifting from just “managing” Israel’s conflict with both Hezbollah and Hamas, to “dismantling” the groups and “finishing the job”.

It is clear the Israeli public wants Netanyahu to deliver on this promise.

Trump forcing his hand

The second reality facing Netanyahu is the potential that US President Donald Trump will agree to a permanent ceasefire with Iran that forces Israel to cease its hostilities against Hezbollah.

Since the tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran, Netanyahu has been trying to separate Israel’s conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah. This would allow him to continue the military’s operations against Hezbollah and claim a key strategic victory.

But Iran is demanding that any ceasefire it reaches with the US include Hezbollah.

This places Netanyahu in a bind. If he does agree to a permanent peace deal, this would leave a severely wounded but not-yet-destroyed Hezbollah in place. With Hamas and the Iranian regime also still intact (albeit severely wounded), this would represent a triple disaster for Netanyahu.

The backlash is already starting. Last month, Israeli opposition leader Yair Golan accused Netanyahu of lying:

He promised a historic victory and security for generations, and in practice, we got one of the most severe strategic failures Israel has ever known.

Criticism like this could have a huge effect on the Israeli elections, due before the end of this year.

Netanyahu is desperate to win these elections to forestall his long-running corruption trial. As such, he would be loath to risk breaking with the Israeli public on his promise to finish Hezbollah. However, that may mean breaking with the US and its essential military, political and diplomatic support.

While the “mowing the grass” strategy gave Netanyahu new political life after Hamas’s October 7 attacks, his failure to match his rhetoric to actual results may now prove to be his Achilles’ heel.

The Conversation

Martin Kear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Netanyahu has pledged to ‘finish the job’ against Hezbollah. It’s a promise he can’t deliver on – https://theconversation.com/netanyahu-has-pledged-to-finish-the-job-against-hezbollah-its-a-promise-he-cant-deliver-on-280468

Mythos AI is a cybersecurity threat, but it doesn’t rewrite the rules of the game

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mohammad Ahmad, Assistant Professor of Management Information Systems, West Virginia University

The hacking prowess of Anthropic’s Mythos AI has gotten a lot of attention, including from the NSA. Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The cybersecurity community went on alert when Anthropic announced on April 7, 2026, that its latest and most capable general-purpose large language model, Claude Mythos Preview, had demonstrated remarkable – and unintended – capabilities. The artifical intelligence system was able to find and exploit software vulnerabilities – the most serious type of software bugs – at a rate not seen before.

The news ignited concern among the public, world governments and the information technology sector about the capabilities of today’s AI to undermine cybersecurity, with some people framing the model as a global cybersecurity threat.

Claiming that it would be too risky to release the model, and that the company had the moral responsibility to disclose these vulnerabilities, Anthropic said it would not immediately offer the model to the public. Instead, it granted exclusive access to tech giants to test the model’s capabilities, a process Anthropic dubbed Project Glasswing.

As a cybersecurity researcher, I think Mythos’ capabilities are impressive, but the AI system does not represent a radical departure. Mythos is less a new threat than a mirror reflecting how people behave and how fragile modern systems already are.

What Mythos did

During a controlled evaluation, engineers with minimal security experience prompted Mythos to scan thousands of software codebases for vulnerabilities. The model showed striking capabilities in conducting multistep, autonomous attacks that take experts weeks or even months to put together. Mythos was not only able to discover 271 vulnerabilities in Mozilla’s Firefox, it also developed exploits to take advantage of 181 of those.

Overall, Anthropic’s red team, which takes on the role of an attacker to test defenses, and the United Kingdom’s AI Security Institute reported that Mythos found thousands of zero-day, or previously unreported, vulnerabilities in major operating systems, web browsers and other applications – software flaws that have not yet been patched and can be turned into exploits immediately. National Security Agency officials testing Mythos have been impressed by the tool’s speed and efficiency in finding software vulnerabilities, according to a news report.

Anthropic’s announcement of Mythos and the cybersecurity threat it poses garnered widespread media attention.

Among the most widely reported were Mythos’ ability to identify a dormant 27-year-old security flaw in OpenBSD, a security-focused operating system, and a 16-year-old bug in FFmpeg, a video/audio processing tool. Some of these flaws allow unauthenticated users to gain control of the machines hosting these applications.

Even more striking, the relatively inexperienced engineers running Mythos’ evaluations were able to use Mythos to complete attacks overnight, from finding vulnerabilities to exploiting them – something that can take human experts weeks to do. The model’s ability to chain multiple steps is what surprised Anthropic and organizations that tried it. In an evaluation by the AI Security Institute, Mythos was able to take over a simulated corporate network in three out of 10 tries, the first AI model to succeed at the task.

These results are real. They also paint an incomplete picture in ways that matter.

Where is the breakthrough?

At first glance, Mythos’ breakthrough sounds novel and could signal a new class of cyber threats. However, a closer look suggests something different. The vulnerabilities Mythos found are not new in nature. They generally don’t belong to unknown security flaws, and in many cases they are variations of well-known and well-understood classes of software vulnerabilities.

In cybersecurity, finding new instances of known types of flaws is not unusual. The most successful attacks rely on known, well-defined vulnerabilities that stay overlooked or unpatched. What concerned the researchers was not Mythos changing the nature of finding and exploiting vulnerabilities, but rather the intense scale and speed with which it was able to find and exploit those vulnerabilities.

This is not a breakthrough per se but rather a result of decades of research in both cybersecurity and AI. In that sense, Mythos is the natural – and expected – result of powerful automation and AI integration because it follows the same fundamental procedures used in standard offensive cybersecurity practices. These include scanning for vulnerabilities, identifying patterns and testing exploitability. Mythos and similar emerging models make it possible to chain these steps together at a speed that is hard to fathom.

So why were these vulnerabilities missed in the first place?

It is crucial to understand that not all vulnerabilities are cost effective to fix, and not all vulnerabilities are a priority. Mythos did not discover a new kind of weakness – it exposed the limits of how cybersecurity practitioners search for them.

New tech, age-old dynamic

Mythos highlights an important fact about the reality of cybersecurity threats. System defenders are always at a disadvantage because they need to always succeed. Attackers, however, need to succeed only once to break the security of a system. This cat-and-mouse game will always be the same, and Mythos does not change that – it simply reinforces it.

Mythos follows a familiar dynamic: A tool created to protect can also be used to attack and harm.

“The same improvements that make the model substantially more effective at patching vulnerabilities also make it substantially more effective at exploiting them,” Anthropic officials wrote in a blog post about Mythos.

What once may have required highly specialized skills can now be achieved with significantly less effort, which raises the most important question: Who will benefit first by using tools like Mythos – defenders or attackers?

The Conversation

Mohammad Ahmad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Mythos AI is a cybersecurity threat, but it doesn’t rewrite the rules of the game – https://theconversation.com/mythos-ai-is-a-cybersecurity-threat-but-it-doesnt-rewrite-the-rules-of-the-game-281268