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October 22, 2025

Côte d’Ivoire’s elections have already been decided: Outtara will win and democracy will lose

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Sebastian van Baalen, Associate Senior Lecturer, Uppsala University

Even before the ballot, the 25 October presidential polls in Côte d’Ivoire can already be described as a loss to democracy and democratic values. Incumbent president Alassane Ouattara is running for a fourth term. With his two main contenders barred from participating, the president will most likely win by a landslide.

Ouattara has previously claimed three electoral victories. The first, in 2010, was marred by widespread violence and a re-escalation of armed conflict that led to the loss of more than 1,500 lives.

His second electoral victory, in 2015, was carried on the back of a broad coalition that later broke apart. The third, in 2020, ended in a violent opposition boycott.

Accusations of constitutional capture by the incumbent have only increased since then. In this way, the otherwise divided political opposition is unanimous in condemning the president’s fourth-term bid.

Ouattara announced his candidacy for a fourth five-year term in office in August 2025. The political opposition has condemned the announcement and the international community has remained silent.

Ouattara and his supporters argue that he is eligible because the 2016 constitutional revision has reset the count and allows him a second term. His opponents insist that the constitutional limit is of one five-year term renewable once, and that Ouattara’s third and fourth-term bids are constitutional coups, which have precedents across the continent.

Undermining democracy

Regardless of the legal reasoning, Ouattara’s fourth-term bid is a loss for democracy at the hands of a politician who, in the run-up to the 2020 election, himself insisted that Ivorian politics was in dire need of a generational change.

In addition to the principle of adhering to a two-term mandate limit, the 2025 election undermines Ivorian democracy because the contest is heavily tilted in the incumbent’s favour. In September, the constitutional council confirmed that the two main opposition candidates, Tidjane Thiam and Pascal Affi N’Guessan, would be excluded from contesting the election on technical grounds.

Thiam is the new leader of the country’s oldest party, the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast – African Democratic Rally (PDCI), and was expected to give Ouattara a run for his money. He was excluded on the grounds that his renouncement of his French citizenship was finalised too late.

N’Guessan inherited the second major opposition party, the Ivorian Popular Front, from the polarising former president Laurent Gbagbo when the latter was indicted at the International Criminal Court in the Hague. This was for his alleged role in crimes against humanity in the wake of the 2010 elections.

Gbagbo, and his long-time collaborator Charles Blé Goudé, were both acquitted of all charges in 2021, and they have both gone on to found new political parties in Côte d’Ivoire, despite being ineligible due to criminal rulings against them in the Ivorian courts.

N’Guessan has been unable to mend the fractures within his party – between Gbagbo-loyal hardliners and his own support base of Ivorian Popular Front moderates – but with Thiam out of the race, he could have been a serious contender. N’Guessan was excluded because he allegedly lacked the number of patron signatures needed to support his candidacy.

Whether these technical knock-outs of the two main opposition candidates were due to negligence on their part or due to bureaucratic foul play by the regime is secondary to the fact that the absence of the two main opposition candidates casts a worrying shadow over the 2025 election.

The political climate is already polarised and rife with conspiracy theories about Ouattara’s corruption and more genuine allegations of his political divisiveness. The amputated political contest only serves to deepen the fault lines between the government and the opposition and spur further voter disillusionment. Such polarisation and disillusionment may also trigger violence, a serious risk in a country where elections are regularly marred by violence.

To complete the autocratic hat-trick, the National Security Council has banned public gatherings, citing concerns over public safety. It seems likely that the authorities were acting preemptively in light of the 2020 election, during which the political opposition called on its supporters to engage in street protests and “civil disobedience”. Those events left at least 83 people dead and 633 people injured in clashes between protesters and security forces and between rivalling communities.

Banning protests may easily backfire as opposition supporters take to the streets anyway. The opposition has called for daily protests during the brief official electoral campaign.

Silence from the international community

Despite this threefold blow to democracy playing out ahead of the 25 October vote, international reactions have been muted at best. Ouattara is a favourite among international partners such as France and the EU. Since coming to power, he has presided over continent-leading economic growth rates large-scale infrastructure investments, and an unlikely victory in the Africa Cup of Nations on home soil.

His popularity in Europe has been further galvanised by the virtual collapse of French influence in its other former colonies. Ouattara is now one of the few west African leaders still pursuing its diplomatic relations with Paris in a “business as usual” manner.

Afraid of rattling anti-French sentiment in yet another former colony, the French government has remained silent on Ouattara’s slow deconstruction of Ivorian democracy. The rest of the EU follows suit, as it has yet to establish a position in the sub-region independent of France’s unspoken leadership.

Both France and the EU are losing further credibility by lending support to Ouattara’s constitutional capture. Accusations of double standards and hypocrisy when insisting on democratic norms are central to the anti-French rhetoric of leaders such as Burkina Faso’s junta leader Ibrahim Traoré. By remaining silent on the slow death of democracy in Côte d’Ivoire, western leaders undermine their own position in the sub-region.

A similar impasse characterises the regional economic community, Ecowas, which is still coming to terms with the withdrawal of the three Sahelian states currently under military rule. With Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria the most important Ecowas members still insisting on its relevance and credibility, the regional bloc is unlikely to take a strong stand on Ouattara’s fourth-term bid or electoral foul play.

What the future hold

Much is still unknown with regard to Côte d’Ivoire’s upcoming election. Coalitions are forming among the opposition candidates left in the race.

Some of the excluded candidates are joining forces in a “common front” to call for street protests and demand their inclusion on the electoral list. And street protests are growing. More than 200 protestors were arrested on 11 October during a peaceful rally in Abidjan.

While street protests failed to sway the incumbent’s anti-democratic tendencies in 2020, recent events in Madagascar and Kenya indicate that governments ignore the popular appetite for change at their own peril.

Regardless of how the final days of the electoral campaign play out, democracy has already suffered a loss in Côte d’Ivoire. The most pressing question may not be about the outcome of the vote but about the more enduring marks on Ivorian electoral politics.

The incumbent, the opposition and the international community all share a responsibility to pave the way for a peaceful and constitutional transfer to a post-Ouattara era. We hope that democracy can recover, and a younger generation can gain more genuine influence.

Sebastian van Baalen receives funding from the Swedish Research Council (grant VR2020-00914, VR2020-03936, and VR2024-00989. He is a member of the Conflict Research Society steering council, a not-for-profit academic organization.

Jesper Bjarnesen receives funding from the Swedish Research Council (grant VR2024-00989).

– ref. Côte d’Ivoire’s elections have already been decided: Outtara will win and democracy will lose – https://theconversation.com/cote-divoires-elections-have-already-been-decided-outtara-will-win-and-democracy-will-lose-267798

October 22, 2025

Raila Odinga: the Kenyan statesman who championed competitive politics and accountability

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State University

Raila Amolo Odinga, who died on 15 October 2025, aged 80, ran five times for the Kenyan presidency but didn’t win. Yet he became a statesman of enormous influence, whose political and humanitarian achievements surpassed those of many African heads of state. He will be remembered as one of the most important figures in the struggle for multiparty democracy.

In this, he was like his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga – who was the country’s first post-independence vice-president. Oginga was a patriot, a nationalist, and one of a small number of Kenyans who were instrumental in the struggle against colonialism. In 1960, Oginga turned down an opportunistic offer from British colonialists to become Kenya’s first prime minister. He argued that there could not be a meaningful transition to an independent Kenya while the popular Jomo Kenyatta was still imprisoned.

Odinga first captured national attention stage in 1982 when he was linked to a failed coup plot by a group of air force officers. From then on he was in and out of political detention and exile until 1992. He achieved much over the next three decades, but in my view, four things stand out in his rich political legacy:

1. Strong belief in the power of the people

His political career, which lasted over three decades, was driven by a strong belief in the ability of ordinary citizens to determine their own political and economic destiny.

This belief was evidenced by his lifelong support for and defence of multiparty democracy. To this statesman, competitive politics represented the most effective way for ordinary Kenyans to participate in the governing of their country. It was the means by which poor rural farmers, and families eking out a living on the margins of rich industrial centres like Nairobi, could force their governors to be accountable to them and the constitution.

Throughout his political career, Odinga exhibited trust and confidence in the ability of ordinary Kenyans to think for themselves. He extolled their capacity to choose their own leaders and to ensure that these leaders would not act only in their own self-interest.

It’s my argument that Odinga’s political philosophy was shaped and informed by what he learned from his father’s struggles and his own experiences with Kenya’s authoritarian political and opportunistic economic elites. Kenyans cannot and must not forget his eight years of imprisonment under the authoritarian regime of Daniel arap Moi (1982–1991); nor should they underestimate his support for the 2010 constitution, which transformed Kenya into a modern democracy.

2. Entrenching competitive politics

The early 1990s were a time of turmoil, not just in Kenya. Throughout Africa many grassroots movements were fighting for better governance. These included, among others, the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa and the struggle against Nigeria’s brutal military dictatorship. In Kenya, a political movement – in which Odinga would play no small part – was underway to end decades of a repressive single-party system.

Odinga challenged one-party rule and fought for Kenya’s transition to a competitive political system. He saw this as a system in which politicians regularly renew the mandate granted them through free, credible and competitive elections. Through this process, Kenyans have been able to exercise their right to hold their leaders accountable.

The battle was won when arap Moi agreed to the first multi-party election in 1992. But the broader war for democratic governance, political accountability and respect for human rights had only begun. In this, Odinga would play an even bigger part.

It is no accident that he was vilified by a political elite that saw him as an agitator and threat to their political fortunes. Yet, it was that threatening political personality that contributed to the modernisation of political economy in Kenya and the rise of the country as a beacon of democracy in Africa.

3. A new constitution, less political conflict

The brutality that Odinga suffered under the Moi dictatorship shaped his belief in competitive politics, respect for human rights and passion for accountable governance.

This passion placed him at the centre of Kenya’s quest for a new constitution. The quest began in the mid-2000s but crystallised after the 2007-8 post-election violence.

Among other progressive changes, Kenya’s 2010 constitution introduced an independent judiciary. Courts were empowered to peacefully resolve conflicts, including those arising from contested elections. Odinga’s several petitions to the Supreme Court alleging election malpractices have, in my opinion, helped improve, entrench and deepen democracy in the country.

The petitions also gave the judiciary the opportunity to affirm and enhance its independence. Thanks to the reforms made to the independent electoral commission, the 2022 elections were transparent, peaceful and credible. The results were transmitted in record time. The changes in the electoral system made in response to the court’s ruling enhanced the courts’ role in the peaceful resolution of conflict in a democracy.

4. Spirit of political dialogue

Odinga spent more than three decades fighting to bring democracy, pluralism, social justice and peaceful coexistence to a country torn apart by violent ethnic rivalries for scarce resources. He taught Kenyans that, through dialogue and the help of democratic institutions, they could coexist peacefully. They could create a society in which governance and economic development would be people-centred.

Odinga fully understood the nature of democratic competition and peaceful coexistence. Even as a fierce political competitor, Odinga was always willing to seek compromise with his rivals in order to advance the interests of Kenya and Kenyans. This is seen in his decision to shake Kenyatta’s hand in the aftermath of the 2017 election.

Most recently, he surprised Kenyans by seeking reconciliation with President William Ruto after the competitive 2022 election. Observers believe this illustrates Odinga’s political philosophy: in politics, a door never shuts completely.

In a nutshell

Odinga contributed significantly to Kenya’s transformation into a modern democratic state. He was also one of Africa’s most important transformative leaders. A pan-Africanist who saw continental integration as an achievable goal, Odinga believed strongly in self-reliance and the need for Africans to manage their own affairs.

John Mukum Mbaku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Raila Odinga: the Kenyan statesman who championed competitive politics and accountability – https://theconversation.com/raila-odinga-the-kenyan-statesman-who-championed-competitive-politics-and-accountability-267640

October 22, 2025

Banning Prince Andrew, paring down royal causes – what a modern monarchy might look like under William

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francesca Jackson, PhD candidate, Lancaster Law School, Lancaster University

In a recent interview with actor Eugene Levy, Prince William stated that “change is on [the] agenda” when he becomes king. His pivotal role in the decision to remove Prince Andrew’s titles has given a glimpse into what these changes might be.

Announcing that Andrew would no longer use his official titles, Buckingham Palace stated that the Prince of Wales had been “consulted” on the decision. But news reports suggest that it may have been William, rather than Andrew or the king, who was the real driving force behind the decision.

William has already made it clear he takes a dim view of his uncle, for example by banning him from walking in the Order of the Garter procession. It has been reported that as king, William will ban Andrew from public and private royal events, including his coronation.

The 19th-century commentator Walter Bagehot, whose 1867 work The English Constitution provides the classic account of constitutional monarchy in the UK, described the monarchy as the “dignified” part of the constitution, whose opulence and grandeur inspired “awe”, “reverence” and “deference” from its people. He suggested that the monarchy needed to maintain “mystery and theatre” in order to project this image of dignity.

Bagehot warned against the monarchy playing an “efficient” role in the constitution – seeking to solve problems that the country might be facing. But, as a poll from 2024 found, people now want the royal family to talk more about the “social issues and challenges facing the country”, rather than simply looking regal on a throne.

Whereas Andrew arguably embodied Bagehot’s outdated, entitled view of monarchy, William represents a more efficient one. He wants to be out in society, playing a hands-on role to help inspire policy shifts on key issues.

It is clear that William wants to change how the monarchy lives and works day-to-day. But how much change can one man – even a king – make?

Constitutional obligations

As head of state, there are certain constitutional functions and duties which, as king, William must perform. For example, he will have to deliver the king’s speech each year during the extravagant state opening of parliament. This grand display of pomp and ceremony seems at odds with any pared-down vision for monarchy.

But William’s future role also gives him the chance to inspire the sorts of changes he wants to see. The monarch enjoys the right to be consulted by, and the rights to encourage and warn, the government of the day. These rights are known as the tripartite convention. William has previously stated that he wants to “engage governments” on issues he cares about, and this constitutional convention gives him the vehicle to do so.

This is something we are already seeing William’s father, King Charles, do, using his influence to encourage the government to take action on issues important to him. He encouraged the government to launch the Coalition to Tackle Knife Crime. And Keir Starmer explicitly stated that the king’s vision for sustainable, eco-friendly homes had “inspired” government policy on housing.

William has chosen to focus much of his work as Prince of Wales on issues with a social purpose, such as climate change, homelessness and mental health. This is work which he wants to continue as king, stating that what excites him most about his future role is to create “a world … that actually does impact people’s lives for the better”.

He has already tried to use his influence to encourage government support for these issues. In 2023, he spent weeks courting support from ministers for his anti-homelessness initiative, Homewards.

But in the weekly audiences with the prime minister that he will have as king, he will be able to have direct conversations at the highest level of government.

Of course, he will need to remain politically neutral, another inescapable constitutional obligation. Bagehot warned that “constitutional royalty under an active king is one of the worst of governments” and described a political king as a “meddling fool”.

But Charles is already treading the political boundary as king – and so far seems to be avoiding criticism. This is likely because there is largely support in society to see progress on issues like reducing knife crime. To balance his desire to initiate change with his constitutional obligations, William will have to stick to relatively uncontroversial issues on which there is broad shared consensus, like the need to end homelessness.

William can also modernise the monarchy when it comes to cost. Rather than, in his own words, having hundreds of patronages and “loads of causes that you sort of turn up and keep an eye on”, he wants the monarchy to focus on a handful of core projects. This would entail a smaller number of working royals doing fewer engagements, which should mean fewer staff and reduced costs for the taxpayer.

Bagehot suggested that the royal family should “dazzle” people with displays of its “showy wealth”. But William’s recent decision to move his family into Forest Lodge – a relatively modest-sized residence by royal standards – suggests his vision for monarchy is more aligned with that of the European “bicycling monarchies”. This informal style of monarchy with fewer working members is popular in countries where people – including the royals themselves – often bicycle. And they are just as, if not more popular, than the UK’s monarchy.

This, along with William’s approach to his uncle, suggests that he is acutely aware of the royal family’s outward appearance. He is understood to be concerned at the message that Andrew’s continued presence at family events sends to victims of sexual abuse.

William knows that the monarchy has to solve problems, rather than create them, in order to survive. In this vision for monarchy, there is no place for a liability like Andrew.

Francesca Jackson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Banning Prince Andrew, paring down royal causes – what a modern monarchy might look like under William – https://theconversation.com/banning-prince-andrew-paring-down-royal-causes-what-a-modern-monarchy-might-look-like-under-william-268021

October 22, 2025

L’Afrique peut réduire ses importations de médicaments en produisant localement les principes actifs

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Cloudius Ray Sagandira, Principal Researcher, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research

L’Afrique supporte une lourde charge en matière de santé. Elle représente 25 % du fardeau mondial des maladies alors qu’elle ne compte que 18 % de la population mondiale.

Cette situation reflète des problèmes profonds : l’accès aux soins, les infrastructures et les conditions socio-économiques sont très insuffisants.

Pourtant, le continent ne produit que 3 % des médicaments mondiaux. Il en importe plus de 70 %. Cela rend les médicaments chers et leur approvisionnement peu fiable, car dépendant des chaînes d’approvisionnement internationales.

La pandémie de COVID-19 a clairement mis en évidence cette vulnérabilité. Les principaux pays exportateurs de médicaments, tels que la Chine et l’Inde, ont imposé des restrictions à l’exportation pour privilégier leurs besoins nationaux. Les fabricants africains se sont alors retrouvés dans l’impossibilité de s’approvisionner en composants et médicaments essentiels. Ce qui a entravé beaucoup d’activités pharmaceutiques locales. Les médicaments essentiels, notamment les antibiotiques, les antipaludiques et les traitements contre le cancer, sont devenus rares.

Le cœur du problème réside dans la dépendance à l’importation des composants pharmaceutiques actifs. Ils sont essentiels et donnent aux médicaments leur efficacité. Sans ces principes actifs, on ne peut pas produire des médicaments.

L’Afrique importe plus de 95 % de ses principes pharmaceutiques actifs, principalement d’Inde et de Chine. Leur importation rend la production locale coûteuse et vulnérable aux prix pratiqués à l’étranger. Cette dépendance a un impact considérable sur l’accès aux médicaments essentiels.

La capécitabine, un médicament utilisé pour traiter certains cancers, en est un exemple. En Afrique du Sud, par exemple, un traitement de six mois à la capécitabine coûte environ 2 200 dollars américains. Ce prix illustre la crise d’accessibilité financière des soins contre le cancer dans toute la région.

La fabrication locale de principes actifs permettrait de réduire les coûts en supprimant les frais d’importation et les retards de livraison. Elle stimulerait également les économies locales en créant des emplois et en encourageant l’innovation.

Je suis chimiste et spécialisé dans le développement de procédés flexibles, peu coûteux et adaptés au contexte africain pour la production de principes actifs pharmaceutiques. Dans une récente étude, mes coauteurs et moi-même avons mis en évidence les avantages et les obstacles liés à la fabrication locale de principes actifs pharmaceutiques sur le continent.

Nous proposons des moyens durables pour mettre en place des capacités de production locales, en utilisant des technologies de fabrication modernes. L’une d’entre elles est la fabrication en flux continu, une méthode de production dans laquelle les médicaments sont fabriqués en flux continu plutôt qu’en lots. Elle permet une production plus rapide, plus sûre et plus régulière, avec moins de déchets et de coûts. Cela pourrait rendre la production africaine plus compétitive et plus durable.

Mais aucune technologie n’est à elle seule la solution. Il faudra combiner les méthodes traditionnelles et modernes, adaptées aux besoins locaux, pour bâtir une industrie pharmaceutique solide.

Certains pays ont déjà commencé à mettre en place ce type de systèmes de fabrication. Toutefois, leur déploiement à grande échelle se heurte encore à plusieurs obstacles. Il s’agit notamment du manque d’infrastructures pilotes, de financements et de main-d’œuvre qualifiée, ainsi que des coûts d’installation élevés.

Des progrès sont en cours

La bonne nouvelle, c’est que la dynamique s’accélère. Plusieurs entreprises africaines sont à la pointe de la production locale d’ingrédients pharmaceutiques. Parmi celles-ci, on peut citer :

Emzor Pharmaceuticals et Fidson Healthcare au Nigeria
Aspen Pharmacare et Chemical Process Technologies en Afrique du Sud
Eva Pharma en Égypte
Dei BioPharma en Ouganda.

Les gouvernements du Kenya, du Ghana, de l’Afrique du Sud et du Nigeria investissent également dans des partenariats public-privé pour soutenir cette transition.

Il faut des investissements considérables. Un rapport de la Banque africaine de développement estime que 11 milliards de dollars américains seront nécessaires d’ici 2030 pour financer la croissance de l’industrie pharmaceutique locale en Afrique. Cela inclut la fabrication de principes pharmaceutiques actifs et de vaccins.

Nous avons noté un certain nombre de développements encourageants.

En 2023, Emzor Pharmaceuticals a obtenu 14 millions d’euros de la Banque européenne d’investissement pour créer une usine de fabrication au Nigeria. L’objectif est d’accélérer la production de traitements contre le paludisme.

Le gouvernement sud-africain a récemment soutenu la création de FuturePharma. Il s’agit d’une installation en libre accès au Conseil pour la recherche scientifique et industrielle (CSIR). Son objectif est d’aider les entreprises pharmaceutiques à travers l’Afrique en leur fournissant des services de recherche, de soutien au développement et de formation de la main-d’œuvre. Il s’agit également d’un investissement visant à réduire les risques liés à la fabrication moderne de principes actifs pharmaceutiques.

En outre, les instituts de recherche et les universités sont à la pointe de la recherche et du développement dans le domaine de la fabrication en flux continu. Leurs travaux se concentrent sur l’adaptation de la technologie afin de rendre la production plus rentable, durable et viable au niveau local.

L’objectif est de créer un continent où chaque pays peut produire ses propres médicaments à un prix abordable et réagir rapidement aux crises sanitaires. Il s’agit également de développer une industrie pharmaceutique florissante.

Grâce à des partenariats croissants, à de nouvelles technologies et à des investissements en hausse, cet avenir est à portée de main.

Mais il existe des obstacles. L’Afrique importe encore la plupart des matières premières nécessaires à la fabrication des composants. Cela rend la production locale coûteuse et vulnérable aux prix fixés à l’étranger.

Le manque de personnel qualifié, la difficulté d’accès au financement et la vétusté des infrastructures freinent également les progrès.

Relever les défis

Pour surmonter ces obstacles, il faut :

investir dans la production locale de matières premières
offrir des allégements fiscaux et des subventions
améliorer l’approvisionnement en électricité
développer les programmes de formation.

Le développement des compétences est encouragé par diverses initiatives. Citons par exemple le Programme de développement de la main-d’œuvre du Conseil pour la recherche scientifique et industrielle et la bourse African STARS (Science, Technology and Research Scholars). Pilotés par l’université de Stellenbosch et l’Institut Pasteur de Dakar, ils contribuent à former une main-d’œuvre pharmaceutique qualifiée à travers l’Afrique.

Ces initiatives proposent des formations techniques et en leadership sur mesure. Elles permettent aux jeunes scientifiques issus du monde universitaire et de l’industrie de promouvoir une production locale durable et réactive de médicaments et de vaccins.

Cloudius Ray Sagandira bénéficie d’un financement de la Fondation nationale pour la recherche et du Conseil pour la recherche scientifique et industrielle.

– ref. L’Afrique peut réduire ses importations de médicaments en produisant localement les principes actifs – https://theconversation.com/lafrique-peut-reduire-ses-importations-de-medicaments-en-produisant-localement-les-principes-actifs-267458

October 22, 2025

Compuestos tóxicos en los productos menstruales: esto es lo que sabemos

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Lara Cioni, Investigadora Postdoctoral, Instituto de Diagnóstico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA – CSIC)

La menstruación es un proceso fisiológico fundamental que experimenta aproximadamente la mitad de la población mundial y la Organización Mundial para la Salud (OMS) reconoce la salud menstrual como un derecho humano fundamental. En este sentido, los productos menstruales resultan esenciales para garantizar la higiene, reducir el riesgo de infecciones y facilitar la participación plena de las personas que menstrúan en la educación y el trabajo, contribuyendo así a la igualdad de género.

Los artículos actuales son más seguros en comparación con décadas pasadas, cuando algunos causaban problemas de salud muy graves. En los años 80, se descubrieron más de 800 casos de síndrome de shock tóxico (20 de ellos acabaron en fallecimientos), asociados al uso de algunos tampones superabsorbentes que facilitaban graves infecciones bacterianas. Este fenómeno generó una gran alarma pública y llevó a cambios en la composición y regulaciones más estrictas.

Actualmente, existen muchos tipos de productos menstruales en el mercado, tanto de un solo uso (compresas, tampones y salvaslips) como reutilizables (bragas menstruales, compresas reutilizables y bragas menstruales).

Los artículos más ampliamente utilizados en España son los desechables (un 61 % de las personas que menstrúan utilizan compresas, un 50 % salvaslips, un 43 % tampones, un 48 % copa menstrual, un 15 % compresas de tela y un 9 % bragas menstruales) y a lo largo de su vida, un individuo puede utilizar más de 10 000. Ante este dato y el resultante impacto ambiental, muchas personas, sobre todo las más jóvenes, están optando por alternativas reutilizables.

Compuestos químicos tóxicos en productos menstruales

Cuando se habla de la seguridad y el impacto ambiental de estos productos, un tema que aún no se discute lo suficiente es la presencia de compuestos químicos tóxicos en ellos. Algunos estudios recientes han detectado, por ejemplo, compuestos perfluorados (PFAS), dioxinas, pesticidas y ftalatos.

Ejemplos de productos menstruales analizados en el estudio. De izquierda a derecha: compresa, tampón, salvaslip, copa menstrual, compresa de tela y braga menstrual.
Las autoras, CC BY-NC-SA

En nuestro estudio, publicado recientemente en Environmental Science and Technology, hemos analizado tres familias de plastificantes de preocupación para la salud humana, ftalatos, ésteres organofosforados y plastificantes alternativos, en productos menstruales del mercado estatal de España.

Hemos detectado estas tres clases de compuestos tanto en artículos de un solo uso (compresas, salvaslips y tampones) como en aquellos reutilizables (bragas menstruales, compresas de tela y copas menstruales).

Hay que destacar que todos los productos analizados tenían niveles detectables de algunos de estos compuestos, demostrando que este es un problema general y no de una marca en concreto.

Los niveles más altos de ftalatos y ésteres organofosforados se han encontrado en bragas menstruales y compresas de tela (niveles de hasta 1 152 µg/producto de ftalatos y hasta 96,5 µg/producto de ésteres organofosforados), ya que algunas de estas sustancias se utilizan ampliamente en la fabricación de fibras sintéticas y para lograr la impermeabilidad de los textiles.

En cambio, los niveles más altos de plastificantes alternativos se han encontrado en compresas y salvaslips (niveles de hasta 60,7 µg/producto), que suelen tener una o más capas hechas de material plástico que necesita de estos aditivos para ser flexible.

Leer más:
La contaminación química del plástico, una amenaza silenciosa

Impacto ambiental

Además, analizamos los envoltorios de los productos de un solo uso, en los que también detectamos varios plastificantes. Estos compuestos químicos se pueden liberar al medio ambiente durante el lavado de los productos reutilizables o al desechar los de un solo uso.

Según nuestros resultados, las compresas, los salvaslips y los tampones son los artículos con mayor impacto ambiental, en parte debido a los altos niveles encontrados en sus envoltorios (niveles totales de plastificantes de hasta 90,7 µg/producto), pero también debido a la presencia de estos plastificantes en los propios productos.

Este mayor impacto también se debe al hecho de que una persona puede llegar a emplear más de 300 de estos productos desechables en un año, mientras que cada producto reutilizable se puede usar muchas veces y puede durar hasta 5-10 años. La copa menstrual, en cambio, ha presentado el menor impacto ambiental.

La liberación de plastificantes preocupa, ya que contaminan los ecosistemas terrestres y acuáticos. Una vez en el medio, estos plastificantes pueden acumularse en los seres vivos y provocarles efectos nocivos. Asimismo, esta contaminación también acaba afectando a los seres humanos, por ejemplo, cuando ingerimos alimentos contaminados, como el pescado.

Leer más:
Los aditivos tóxicos del plástico que ingerimos a través de los alimentos

Efectos en la salud humana

La presencia de plastificantes en productos menstruales no solo plantea un problema ambiental, sino que también puede afectar a nuestra salud. Muchos estudios han demostrado que la exposición diaria y continuada a pequeñas dosis de algunos ftalatos y algunos ésteres organofosforados puede tener efectos dañinos sobre la salud humana, como disrupción endocrina (disfunciones hormonales), alteraciones en el sistema inmunitario y cáncer. Para los plastificantes alternativos la información es más limitada, ya que su uso masivo es reciente, pero los primeros estudios están evidenciando que también podrían tener propiedades tóxicas.

Los productos menstruales se utilizan en contacto directo con la piel y la piel de la vulva y la vagina tiene una capacidad de absorber pequeñas moléculas, como los plastificantes, más alta que en otras zonas de nuestro cuerpo.

Si consideramos el peor caso posible, o sea que todo el contenido de plastificantes en los productos menstruales se absorbiese a través de la piel, algunos productos podrían ser una fuente significativa de exposición a plastificantes. Al comparar nuestras estimaciones de exposición (asumiendo el peor caso posible y que los niveles de aditivos plásticos en los productos reutilizables no bajen con el lavado) con valores de referencia seguros establecidos por la Agencia de Protección Ambiental de Estados Unidos, hemos encontrado que el uso de tres de las 10 compresas analizadas, tres de los ocho salvaslips analizados y dos de las cuatro compresas de tela analizadas, podría suponer un riesgo para la salud humana.

La exposición por contacto dérmico

Es importante remarcar que este resultado de evaluación del riesgo no es definitivo. Nuestra estimación del riesgo está basada en el caso más extremo posible, que probablemente sea muy diferente del caso real. Estudios preliminares apuntan a que la cantidad de plastificantes presentes en un material que finalmente pasa por contacto dérmico a nuestra piel puede variar entre 6 y 97 % dependiendo del plastificante y del material.

Pero nuestro trabajo pone en evidencia una falta de información importante: todavía no existen estudios sobre cómo se absorben estos compuestos a través de la piel de la vulva y de la vagina. Avanzar en este conocimiento es clave para poder evaluar de manera fiable los riesgos asociados al uso de productos menstruales y garantizar su seguridad.

Todavía sabemos muy poco sobre la composición química de los productos menstruales, a pesar de que forman parte de la vida cotidiana de millones de personas. La falta de investigación en este ámbito se suma a la ausencia de una regulación específica que limite el uso de sustancias tóxicas en ellos y la falta de una obligación legal de informar de la presencia de todos los compuestos químicos en las etiquetas de los artículos que se comercializan. Si además tenemos en cuenta que muchas personas eligen sus productos menstruales en base a su huella ambiental, conocer mejor su composición química es clave para tomar decisiones informadas.

Lara Cioni recibe fondos de la Union Europea (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship – grant agreement: 101198272)

Ethel Eljarrat no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

– ref. Compuestos tóxicos en los productos menstruales: esto es lo que sabemos – https://theconversation.com/compuestos-toxicos-en-los-productos-menstruales-esto-es-lo-que-sabemos-267928

October 22, 2025

The Celebrity Traitors: how star status changes the game

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Baumgardt, Senior Lecturer, School of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Bristol

The Traitors and a resplendent, though funereal, Claudia Winkleman are back on screens in the UK – and you could cut the tension with a poison-laced dagger.

This time, both intermingled faithful and traitors are not civilians – they’re celebrities. The cast is diverse, featuring actors, comedians, singers, athletes and presenters. Each has their own particular expertise, motives, character and fan club.

They all play for a share of the jackpot for their nominated charity. But how could this new celebrity dynamic affect the state of play? Can neuroscience and psychology foretell what sorts of mind games, alliances, betrayals and downright cunning could go down in the name of completely unmissable entertainment?

It’s going to be another addictive game of smoke and mirrors. No spoilers, I promise!

The prominent status of our celebs means viewers have preconceived ideas about them. But what matters more within the castle walls are the everyday impressions, even before they’re divided into tribes – most as faithfuls whose job it is to catch a few hidden traitors.

The skillsets

Each cast member is a celebrity for a reason, and a professional in their own field. Actors like Celia Imrie and Mark Bonnar may be skilled in reading emotions in others, and have distinct advantages in performance.

The ability to be able to feign upset or distress, plead innocence, or indeed lie convincingly, could prove a distinct asset. Especially since research has suggested that how you act or present yourself is a stronger predictor of being judged credible than the actual truth of your statement.

But acting prowess could be spotted as cover, and prove a disadvantage if cross-examined. Equally, misjudged overreactions or poor acting may also quickly raise suspicion and doubt.

Athletes such as Tom Daley and Joe Marler possess strength and agility, allowing them to excel in physical challenges. This training could facilitate trust, or signal a dominance which might highlight them as leaders.

Athletes have also honed abilities to focus the mind in the face of competition. They know how to repress and conceal signs of anxiety or adrenaline – sweating, shaking, flushing, and the like – that could otherwise manifest as telltale symbols of lying.

Meanwhile, comedians like Joe Wilkinson and Lucy Beaumont are both charming and disarming. We know deception and humour are interrelated social phenomena. Humour can be used for deception but it can also lighten the atmosphere and defuse tense situations. But ill-timed comedy could likewise inflame it, or be seen as attempts at deflection.

All these traits may help paint someone as trustworthy, or equally Machiavellian. Machiavellianism, which involves acting unscrupulously to gain power, is one of the traits encompassing what psychologists refer to as “the Dark Triad”. This could position them as either untouchable, or potential targets – ripe to be murdered or banished.

Pre-existing relationships

Many of the celebs have entered the game already knowing each other. Paloma Faith and Alan Carr are real-life friends. This dimension is not necessarily limited to the celebrity version. In previous series, some relationships were established before entering the castle – mother and son, siblings, and even contestants dating.

With our stars, these prior relationships are already out in the open for all to see. As broadcasters, Clare Balding and Kate Garraway share common ground, as do writers like Stephen Fry and David Olusoga, and singers Charlotte Church and Cat Burns. Such relationships will be taken into account by those playing the game.

As psychology also tells us, birds of a feather flock together – a concept known as homophily. This might lead to the formation of natural alliances and strong pacts. But it may equally lead to stronger feelings of betrayal, if or when they become ruptured.

What of the relative unknowns – Niko Omilana and Ruth Codd – who arrived knowing nobody? Research shows us that our brains rapidly make judgements, within milliseconds, about unfamiliar faces. Whether they can be considered trustworthy or not appears to depend upon independent variables, including facial dimensions, age, sex and personality. Notably female gender and positive social interactions tend to lead to more favourable judgments.

Fame may also be a problem when it comes to tactics. A contestant from the last civilian series with an English accent decided to adopt a Welsh burr instead. It was because they judged a Welsh accent more trustworthy.

Star status makes tactics like these impossible. And with details of their working or private lives potentially under the spotlight, celebrities may find themselves more vulnerable in this game.

Playing for charity

What’s more, playing for oneself versus playing for charity creates another really interesting dynamic. You could argue that ultimately nobody will lose in this game since the jackpot is undoubtedly heading toward a good cause. But it also boils down to a variation in altruism between individuals.

This variation is evident in the brain itself. Research from neuroscience shows distinct cerebral activity patterns are responsible for driving behaviour associated with winning and losing money in a given task. This research also uncovered stronger reactions when winning for oneself versus for charity, but this could vary between individuals.

We’ve also got to look at the desire to win for glory, which is perhaps more evident in athletes and those in business. Public image matters. And it raises the question – how much are these celebrities happy to risk theirs?

It’s remarkable how the concept of The Traitors can give us a glimpse into the psyche, illuminating sides of people we’ve not seen before. Whatever the outcome, this is going to prove another fascinating psychological experiment. Hope you’ve got your popcorn and (non-poisoned) chalice at the ready.

Dan Baumgardt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Celebrity Traitors: how star status changes the game – https://theconversation.com/the-celebrity-traitors-how-star-status-changes-the-game-267648

October 22, 2025

Donald Trump’s deal to end the war in Gaza ignores two fundamental requirements for a lasting peace

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ambra Suriano, Marie Curie post-doctoral fellow, Lancaster University

Until both sides can rid themselves of mutual emnity and deal on equal terms, a lasting peace looks like a pipe dream. OMG_Studio/Shutterstock

Donald Trump’s 20-point proposal to bring peace in Gaza covers some essential points for reaching a long-awaited ceasefire. But the release of Israeli hostages and the distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza are only the first steps. Some vital factors that will be needed if Israelis and Palestinians are to build a lasting peace are still missing.

The US president’s plan calls for a “dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence”. But there are significant stumbling blocks to this.

First is the hatred and lack of trust on both sides. The Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity signed by world leaders on October 13 noted their “determination to dismantle extremism and radicalisation in all its forms”. It went on to say that: “No society can flourish when violence and racism are normalised, or when radical ideologies threaten the fabric of civil life.”

There can be no denying that extremism and racism have profoundly affected both Palestinian and Israeli societies, and are deeply ingrained in the education system on both sides. Palestinians criticise the Israeli school curriculum for failing to acknowledge the Nakba, the disastrous consequences of the mass displacement of Palestinian people during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war and the lasting trauma it caused. Meanwhile, Israeli authorities point out that Palestinian textbooks often omit any reference to the Holocaust and to Israel as a legitimate state.

This lack of acknowledgement of each other’s suffering has become deeply entrenched over time, leading to mutual dehumanisation which has created the atmosphere in which violence can flourish. There is plenty of evidence that Palestinian antisemitism has become what Itamar Marcus, the director of Palestinian Media Watch, told the US Congress in June 2023: “A systematically disseminated ideology that is by now deeply ingrained in the Palestinian national and political identity.”

In Israel, the growing rhetoric of dehumanisation towards Palestinians has taken shape through violence and a troubling fusion of religion and politics. A recent United Nations report, which concluded that Israeli troops were committing genocide in Gaza, highlighted the former defence minister, Yoav Gallant, referring to Palestinians as “human animals”.

The same report quoted the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, using a biblical story to justify the killing of Palestinians. In a letter to Israeli troops on the eve of the assault on Gaza, he wrote: “Remember what Amalek did to you.” This is a reference to the story from the book of Samuel in which God tells the Israelites to destroy their mortal enemies, the Amelekites: “Now go and attack Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have; do not spare them, but kill both man and woman, child and infant, ox and sheep, camel and donkey.”

This sort of rhetoric is all the more concerning given that it comes from official voices of a recognised state based, at least formally, on democratic principles.

Unequal partners

Another massive stumbling block that Trump’s plan fails to acknowledge is the lack of equivalence between the two peoples. The plan insists that “lasting peace will be one in which both Palestinians and Israelis can prosper with their fundamental human rights protected, their security guaranteed, and their dignity upheld”.

But Israel exists as a sovereign state, with all that entails. It has a powerful military. It is deeply embedded in global financial and diplomatic systems. In contrast, despite their statehood being recognised by 157 out of 193 UN members, Palestinians enjoy little of the rights that statehood should confer.

For a start, much of Palestine’s territory remains under Israeli occupation. Neither the Trump’s declaration nor the 20-point ceasefire plan include any practical action to dismantle Israeli military occupation in the West Bank. Nor do they attempt to formulate any realistic programme for Palestinian self-determination.

As it stands, the US president’s plan envisions a fragmented, non-independent Palestine to be administered under the supervision of an external “Board of Peace”, with himself as the chair and former UK prime minister Tony Blair in some sort of executive role.

‘Othering’ the enemy

Netanyahu has said he will resist any moves towards a two-state solution. In September, he told the UN general assembly: “Giving the Palestinians a state one mile from Jerusalem after October 7th is like giving Al-Qaeda a state one mile from New York City after September 11th.”

This “othering” of Palestinians is a thread through Israeli politics which makes mutual empathy impossible. Under these conditions, the well-intentioned international goals of fostering interfaith dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians, full recognition of human rights and security for both sides remains a pipe dream which one side strenuously opposes.

A lasting peace should first lead both peoples to recognise each others’ basic human rights. Only then can traumas be healed, ideologies deradicalised and bridges built. Until then, all the declarations and peace plans of a well-meaning world will come to nothing.

Ambra Suriano receives funding from the European Union, through the Horizon program.

– ref. Donald Trump’s deal to end the war in Gaza ignores two fundamental requirements for a lasting peace – https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-deal-to-end-the-war-in-gaza-ignores-two-fundamental-requirements-for-a-lasting-peace-267564

October 22, 2025

Antidepressants: physical side-effects vary depending on the drug type – new research

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Toby Pillinger, Doctor and Clinical Researcher, King’s College London

Not all antidepressants are the same when it comes to their physical side-effects. Kmpzzz/ Shutterstock

Millions of people worldwide take antidepressants. While these drugs can be very effective in treating mental health conditions such as depression and anxiety, they can also cause a range of physical side-effects – including weight gain, heart rate changes and altered blood pressure.

But not all antidepressants are equal when it comes to the physical effects they can have on the body, a new analysis published by myself and my colleagues has revealed. We found clear and meaningful differences between the drugs, with some causing greater effects on weight, heart rate, cholesterol levels and blood pressure. For the millions of people who take these prescription drugs, these differences matter.

Our study brought together 151 randomised trials which contained data on 58,534 people and looked at 30 different antidepressants. Each study had recorded routine physical measures you’d see in a clinic such as blood pressure, body weight and heart rate. Most of the studies lasted about eight weeks.

We then used a method called network meta-analysis that lets you compare multiple treatments against each other simultaneously. This approach gives a sort of “league table” of treatments, ranking them from best to worst for each physical health outcome.

We found that even after only eight weeks of treatments, the physical effects of the various different antidepressants were not subtle.

Weight effects varied markedly between drugs. For example, people taking the antidepressant agomelatine lost around 2.5kg on average, whereas those on maprotiline gained nearly 2kg.

Heart rate effects also varied widely. The antidepressant fluvoxamine actually lowered heart rate by about eight beats per minute, while nortriptyline raised it by around 14 – a difference of more than 20 beats per minute between drugs.

Systolic blood pressure saw a more than 11mmHg spread between the antidepressant doxepin and nortriptyline.

And for cholesterol and blood sugar levels, several antidepressants – including paroxetine, venlafaxine, desvenlafaxine and duloxetine – were associated with higher total cholesterol. Duloxetine was also associated with higher blood sugar levels.

It’s important to note that the analysis only focused on antidepressant treatment that lasted for around eight weeks. Since many people take antidepressants for a longer period than this, real-world, long-term physical effects could be greater. This is one reason why routinely monitoring patients taking antidepressants is essential.

We also only included objective outcomes that are consistently collected in trials. Some important physical problems, such as sexual side-effects, are not routinely measured in research so were not included in the analysis due to a lack of data – not a lack of importance. It will be important for future studies to investigate such outcomes.

A young woman has her blood pressure checked by a female doctor. — Blood pressure readings were one of the physical side-effects that differed between antidepressant types.
antoniodiaz/ Shutterstock

The results also should not be read as a list of “good” and “bad” antidepressants. Rather, they illustrate how different drugs can have different physical effects. The aim with our research is to show why it’s important to tailor prescribing to each patient.

Peronalised prescribing

For years, debates about antidepressants have been framed as “do they work?” or “are side-effects real?” Our findings suggest a more useful question: which drug suits which person, given their physical health and priorities?

The data shows that antidepressants are not interchangeable. For someone with obesity, diabetes or hypertension, choosing an antidepressant that has a more neutral effect on weight, blood sugar and blood pressure is sensible. But for an underweight person with low blood pressure, the trade-off may be different. The right answer will depend on the patient.

In light of our recent findings, it’s more important than ever that doctors work closely with patients to understand their priorities and match them with the correct antidepressant.

Of course, this is a challenge in and of itself for doctors, who would need to consider two dozen different antidepressants and their many potential side-effects. So alongside the analysis we performed, we also previously developed a freely-available tool that doctors and patients can use together to decide on the right antidepressant.

The tool allows doctors and patients to select the side-effects the patient most wants to avoid and set how important each one is. The tool then integrates those preferences with side-effect databases, then produces a personalised table of options which ranks antidepressants based on which best fits the patient’s preferences.

Antidepressants are effective for many people. Our study does not change that. But what it does show is that not all antidepressants are the same. We now have high-quality evidence that their effects on weight, blood pressure, heart rate and blood sugar differ in clinically meaningful ways.

Rather than argue for or against antidepressants as a group, we should focus on matching the medicine to the person, with shared decisions being made between doctor and patient.

Tools such as the one we’ve built make this possible, so that patients can be prescribed antidepressants that are safer for them and better-tolerated.

Toby Pillinger has received speaker or consultancy fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Recordati, Lundbeck, Otsuka, Janssen, CNX Therapeutics, Sunovion, ROVI Biotech, Schwabe Pharma, and Lecturing Minds Stockholm AB; he receives book royalties from Wiley Blackwell; and he co-directs a company that designs digital resources to support treatment of mental illness.

– ref. Antidepressants: physical side-effects vary depending on the drug type – new research – https://theconversation.com/antidepressants-physical-side-effects-vary-depending-on-the-drug-type-new-research-268010

October 22, 2025

Ireland’s presidential election race now down to two women

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gail McElroy, Professor in Political Science, Trinity College Dublin

Voters across the Republic of Ireland will head to the polls on October 24 to elect a new head of state to replace Michael D. Higgins. His replacement will be Ireland’s tenth president since the role of president was established in the 1937 constitution.

Once considered largely ceremonial and “above politics,” the presidency has evolved significantly in recent years. Since Mary Robinson’s landmark election in 1990, campaigns have become increasingly political, combative and unpredictable. This year is no exception. Jim Gavin, one of the three candidates, has already withdrawn from the race – although his name will still be listed on the ballot.

Even before nominations closed, the electorate was entertained for months by speculation about who might or might not run. Names frequently mentioned included celebrities such as mixed martial artist Conor McGregor and dancer Michael Flatley, alongside various politicians such as former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.

However, securing a place on the presidential ballot is not easy. Candidates must have the backing of at least 20 members of the Oireachtas (currently there are 174 members of the Dáil and 60 members of the Seanad) or the support of four of the 31 city or county councils. In the end, only three candidates managed to secure nominations, the lowest number in a contested election since 1990.

Friday’s contest is now effectively a showdown between the leftwing independent candidate Catherine Connolly and Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys. Interestingly, Fine Gael, a centre-right party that has been in power since 2011, has never held the presidency. Gavin was nominated by the party of the current prime minister, Fianna Fáil. A former Air Corps officer and highly successful manager of the Dublin senior Gaelic football team, Gavin ended his campaign on October 5 after it emerged that he has owed €3,300 (£2,873) to a former tenant since 2009. The tenant was, coincidentally, the deputy editor of a leading tabloid newspaper, The Sunday World.

Polls indicate an almost unassailable lead for Connolly, who has received endorsements from all the major left-leaning parties, including Sinn Féin, the Labour Party, the Greens and the Social Democrats. However, Irish presidential elections are renowned for their unpredictability. In 2011, the frontrunner, Séan Gallagher, saw his double-digit poll lead evaporate in the campaign’s final days, following a challenging TV debate watched by over a quarter of the electorate.

The role of the president

Ireland is a parliamentary republic, so the presidential role is largely ceremonial, even if the constitution grants the president certain formal powers. Direct election of the president does, however, give the role soft influence and a measure of moral authority. Higgins has been more politically outspoken than any of his predecessors, occasionally criticising government policy and, in doing so, reshaping perceptions of the office. Nonetheless, the president does not play any role in government formation or initiating and vetoing legislation. While technically responsible for appointing key figures – such as the attorney general and judges – these appointments are all made on the government’s advice.

The two main powers of the Irish president are the ability to refuse the Taoiseach’s request to dissolve the Dáil and the power to withhold their signature from a bill, referring it, instead, to the Supreme Court to test its constitutionality. No president has ever formally refused a Dáil dissolution, and the referral power has been used sparingly – only 16 times since 1938.

Ultimately, the Irish presidential election functions as a second-order contest, with leftwing opposition parties eagerly seizing on the opportunity to stage an informal referendum on the governing centre-right coalition this year.

However, even a decisive victory should not be taken as evidence of majority support for a change in government. In 2018 Higgins retook the presidency for the Labour party with an impressive 56% of first-preference votes, yet his party gained no momentum from this victory in the general elections that followed.

Reflecting the second order nature of these elections, turnout is expected to be quite depressed, and, if very low, could prove crucial to the outcome. Nearly half of respondents in recent polls say they do not feel represented by the slate of candidates on offer. That suggests participation may fall short of even 2018 levels, when it hit a historic low of just under 44%. It remains to be seen if young voters, who favour Connolly heavily, will match their enthusiasm with action.

Gail McElroy is a member of the National Election and Democracy Study Management Board of An Coimisiún Toghcháin (the Irish Electoral Commission).

– ref. Ireland’s presidential election race now down to two women – https://theconversation.com/irelands-presidential-election-race-now-down-to-two-women-268024

October 22, 2025

Le couple Toumanov : une page de la guerre froide qui a des échos aujourd’hui

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Cécile Vaissié, Professeure des universités en études russes et soviétiques, Université de Rennes 2, chercheuse au CERCLE (Université de Lorraine), Université Rennes 2

La salle des bobines dans les locaux de Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty à Munich (Allemagne), où les émissions provenant des pays communistes étaient enregistrées et examinées par le personnel de la radio (1976).
RFE/RL

Durant la guerre froide, de nombreux Soviétiques captaient en cachette Radio Liberty, une station financée par les États-Unis et dont le QG se trouvait à Munich (alors en République fédérale d’Allemagne). Ils y écoutaient des dissidents originaires d’URSS qui leur faisaient connaître des informations inaccessibles dans leurs médias nationaux du fait de la censure. L’un de ces journalistes était Oleg Toumanov. Son épouse, Eta, enseignait le russe à des militaires américains. Mais Oleg – de même, très probablement, qu’Eta – travaillait en réalité pour le KGB…

Les histoires d’espions ont pour intérêt majeur non tant d’établir des faits – tout le monde y ment, ou à peu près – que de susciter des questions, celles-ci aidant à décrypter d’autres cas, plus contemporains.

Très révélateurs, les parcours d’Oleg Toumanov et de son épouse ont été rappelés lors d’une exposition intitulée « Des Voix de Munich dans la Guerre froide », organisée au musée municipal de Munich du 30 septembre 2022 au 5 mars 2023 et consacrée aux radios occidentales Radio Free Europe (RFE)/Radio Liberty (RL).

Oleg Toumanov (1944-1997) travaillait pour Radio Liberté (RL), mais aussi pour le KGB. Quant à son épouse… la question reste complexe.

Radio Liberté, l’une des radios occidentales émettant vers l’URSS

La guerre froide avait à peine commencé quand les États-Unis ont créé deux radios basées à Munich : Radio Free Europe (RFE), qui, dès 1950, émettait vers les pays d’Europe centrale contrôlés par l’URSS ; et Radio Liberty qui visait l’URSS et qui, lancée le 1^er mars 1953 sous le nom de Radio Liberation from Bolshevism, est devenue, en 1956, Radio Liberation, puis, en 1959, Radio Liberté (RL). Ses programmes, comme ceux de RFE, étaient diffusés dans les langues des auditeurs potentiels.

Aujourd’hui, nous parlerions de « guerre des narratifs » : il s’agissait de faire parvenir aux sociétés dites « de l’Est » des informations sur l’Occident, mais aussi sur leurs propres pays, par exemple en lisant à l’antenne des textes de dissidents, et d’accompagner le tout d’éléments des cultures occidentales et dissidentes.

Les États-Unis considéraient pouvoir ainsi fragiliser l’URSS, et celle-ci a d’ailleurs brouillé RL dès ses débuts. Pour Mark Pomar, qui y a été employé, RL et RFE étaient l’expression d’émigrés souhaitant représenter leur pays tel qu’il serait sans les communistes, alors que Voice of America, apparue en février 1947, était, elle, conçue comme la voix officielle des États-Unis ; Radio Liberté était donc, aux yeux de Pomar, « une radio entièrement russe qui se trouvait être à Munich », mais dont les financements venaient de la CIA jusqu’en 1971, puis du budget américain.

Oleg Toumanov, une belle carrière chez Radio Liberté

Oleg Toumanov qui, en 1993, publiera des « souvenirs » en anglais sous le titre Confessions d’un agent du KGB, a travaillé à Radio Liberté pendant vingt ans.

Né à Moscou en 1944, il rejoint en 1963 la flotte soviétique. En novembre 1965, il quitte son bateau à la nage près des côtes libyennes ; une fois à terre, il déclare vouloir être transféré chez les Occidentaux. Le 5 décembre 1965, un avion américain le conduit en RFA, dans un centre américain pour réfugiés : il y est interrogé, y compris avec l’aide d’un détecteur de mensonges. Le 14 avril 1966, il obtient l’autorisation de résider en permanence en Allemagne. Peu après, et non sans avoir subi de nouveaux tests, il est recruté par Radio Liberté.

Sa carrière y est spectaculaire : engagé au département « nouvelles » du service russe, Toumanov intervient assez vite à l’antenne et signe, dès 1967, un contrat à vie avec RL. Quelques années plus tard, il est nommé rédacteur en chef du service russe : le plus haut poste que puisse décrocher un non-Américain.

Montage comprenant la carte de presse de Toumanov et sa photo.
Cold War Convsersations, site du podcast consacré à la guerre de l’historien Ian Sanders

Mais Toumanov disparaît le 26 février 1986. Il réapparaît à Moscou le 28 avril, lors d’une conférence de presse organisée par le ministère soviétique des Affaires étrangères, et dénonce les liens de RL avec la CIA. Par la suite, il expliquera avoir risqué d’être démasqué, suite à la défection de deux officiers du KGB. Avec l’aval de celui-ci, il a donc rejoint Berlin-Est et y a été débriefé, avant de prendre l’avion pour Moscou. Gorbatchev, au pouvoir en URSS depuis un an, vient de lancer la perestroïka.

Un parcours en questions

Ce parcours suscite bien des questions. L’une porte sur le moment où Toumanov a été recruté par les services soviétiques : sa « fuite d’URSS » était-elle une opération programmée par ceux-ci, comme Toumanov l’affirmera dans ses mémoires ? Ou, comme le croiront certains de ses collègues de RL, le jeune homme a-t-il été recruté alors qu’il se trouvait déjà en Occident ?

En outre, de quelles missions était-il chargé ? Il devait, écrira-t-il, infiltrer les cercles d’émigrés, et aurait transmis à ses officiers traitants – qu’il rencontrait à Berlin-Est, Vienne et Helsinki, mais jamais en RFA – des informations sur les employés de Radio Liberté. Il se chuchote aussi que, grâce à des documents transmis par Toumanov, l’URSS aurait découvert qu’une taupe travaillait pour les Américains dans les plus hauts cercles du PCUS.

Documentaire « Prague au service de Moscou : dans les secrets de la guerre froide », Andrea Sedláčková, 2024.

L’ancien marin aurait également joué un rôle clé dans une opération conçue pour désinformer l’Occident. En revanche, Toumanov n’était sans doute pas chargé d’infléchir la rhétorique de Radio Liberté : passer pour un adversaire féroce du pouvoir soviétique était l’une des conditions de son poste…

S’agissait-il d’un cas isolé ? Non. Des documents désormais accessibles montrent que RL était « l’une des principales cibles » des services secrets de l’Est. La « guerre des narratifs » était au cœur, aussi, de la guerre froide.

L’épouse de Toumanov, Eta-Svetlana Katz-Toumanov

Toumanov a épousé, en 1978, Eta Katz (ou Drits), qu’il avait rencontrée quinze jours plus tôt à Londres.

Photo prise à Munich d’Eta et Oleg Toumanov, peu après leur mariage.
Compte Facebook d’Eta Toumanov (Svetlana Tumanova)

Dans une interview d’avril 2023, elle dira être née en 1959 à Riga et venir d’une « famille juive dissidente » qui souhaitait émigrer, ce qui était alors « presque impossible ». Mais, en 1970, une dizaine de personnes, juives pour la plupart et regroupées autour d’Edouard Kouznetsov, tentent de détourner un avion pour partir en Israël. Leur tentative ratée et leur procès suscitent une importante mobilisation internationale : le combat des Juifs pour quitter l’URSS devient mondialement connu. Dans ce contexte, les Katz peuvent émigrer en juin 1971, et Eta elle-même parlera de « miracle ». À Londres, à seize ans, elle commence à travailler comme secrétaire pour le service russe de la BBC.

Trois ans plus tard, elle rencontre Toumanov et le suit à Munich. Il lui aurait révélé, une ou deux semaines plus tard, qu’il travaillait pour le KGB. La jeune femme aurait été horrifiée, mais les deux postes qu’elle a par la suite occupés font douter de l’authenticité de ce « choc ». D’abord, elle enseigne le russe dans un institut de l’Armée américaine, et ses étudiants sont des officiers américains qui se préparent à des missions en URSS. Puis, en 1982, suite à une proposition d’un cadre de Radio Liberté, elle devient l’assistante du directeur de cet institut et travaille dans la base américaine.

Roman graphique, exposition « Stimmen aus München im Kalten Krieg » (« Voix de Munich pendant la guerre froide »), Münchner Stadtmuseum, vue le 3 mars 2023.
Fourni par l’auteur

Cette planche montre le moment où Alexander, le chef d’Oleg à Radio Liberté, propose à Eta de travailler comme assistante du directeur de l’institut de langues, avec un accès à des informations secrètes. Eta y est présentée comme une jeune mère qui hésite à accepter un tel poste.

Pour les rédacteurs de l’exposition de Munich, « les employeurs américains de son mari escomptaient qu’Eta Toumanov travaillerait pour eux », ce qui n’est pas impossible.

Fiche biographique sur Eta Toumanov, présentée dans le cadre de l’exposition.
Fourni par l’auteur

Les questions que pose ce mariage

De nouvelles questions se posent donc. Est-il imaginable qu’Eta Toumanov ait occupé ses deux postes en Bavière sans collaborer avec les services secrets soviétiques, ainsi que le prétend son mari dans ses « souvenirs » ? Non. D’ailleurs, elle-même reconnaît aujourd’hui cette collaboration, même si elle déclare y avoir été « forcée » par son mariage.

Quelles informations a-t-elle alors transmises ? D’après ce qu’elle a confié à un journal israélien, il s’agissait de renseignements sur les emplacements, les mouvements et les armements des troupes américaines, et de nombreux détails personnels sur ses étudiants américains. A-t-elle aussi cherché à recruter certains d’entre eux ? À les influencer ? Et si Eta avait travaillé pour le KGB, ou pour d’autres services, avant même sa rencontre avec Toumanov ? Elle le nie.

Comme d’autres cas l’indiquent, l’Union soviétique a infiltré ses collaborateurs dans toutes les vagues d’émigration et a recruté des agents dans chacune de ces vagues. Et le parcours d’Eta, comme celui de son mari, semble ridiculiser le travail des services secrets occidentaux – en l’occurrence, américains et allemands – chargés de repérer, parmi les émigrés, ceux liés au KGB. Arrêtée en 1987 par la police allemande, Eta Toumanov est emprisonnée – six mois, selon elle ; plus de neuf, à en croire son mari. Accusée d’avoir travaillé pour le GRU, les services secrets militaires soviétiques, elle n’est condamnée qu’à cinq ans de probation.

Svetlana Toumanov à Moscou

En 1993, Eta Toumanov quitte Munich pour Moscou, prend la citoyenneté russe et adopte le prénom de Svetlana. En 2025, elle vit toujours dans la capitale russe où Poutine, soi-disant croisé en RDA, lui aurait fait attribuer un appartement. Sur sa page Facebook, elle se présente comme « retraitée des services de renseignement extérieur de la Fédération de Russie » et proclame, le 16 septembre 2023, sa « fierté » d’être l’une des cinq personnes dont les parcours sont mis en valeur dans l’exposition de Munich.

Elle poste de nombreuses photos, prises lors de mondanités ou de cérémonies, souvent en compagnie de descendants de « légendaires agents secrets » soviétiques, hauts gradés, voire tueurs, du NKVD, comme ici lors d’un hommage sur les tombes de ces agents secrets, hommage auquel participent, entre autres, la petite-fille de Pavel Soudoplatov, ainsi que le fils et la fille de Naum Eitingon avec leurs enfants et petits-enfants ; ou lors d’une soirée avec l’un des membres de la famille de Félix Dzerjinski, le créateur de la Tchéka. Mais le 22 décembre 2024, elle rend aussi hommage à Edouard Kouznetsov, qui vient de mourir.

Radio Liberté aujourd’hui

Après le coup raté d’août 1991, Eltsine a autorisé RFE/RL à ouvrir un bureau à Moscou. Quatre ans plus tard, ces radios ont quitté Munich pour Prague. La guerre froide était, soi-disant, terminée.

Toumanov est mort en octobre 1997 à Moscou et y a été enterré avec les honneurs militaires.

Radio Liberté a été parmi les premiers médias à être déclarés « agents de l’étranger » par les autorités russes en décembre 2017 et ses correspondants ont quitté la Russie en mars 2022, deux semaines après l’attaque russe de l’Ukraine.

Le 14 mars 2025, Donald Trump a appelé à réduire au maximum légal les financements de l’US Agency for Global Media (USAGM) et des radios à l’étranger. RFE et RL continuent néanmoins d’émettre et de publier, tout en combattant cette décision en justice.

Cécile Vaissié ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Le couple Toumanov : une page de la guerre froide qui a des échos aujourd’hui – https://theconversation.com/le-couple-toumanov-une-page-de-la-guerre-froide-qui-a-des-echos-aujourdhui-265038