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March 18, 2026

Why Europe’s ‘open’ economy of innovation is exposed to global trade shifts

Source: The Conversation – France – By Regis Coeurderoy, Professor in Strategic Management and Innovation, ESCP Business School

Last month the European Commission unveiled its new “Made in Europe” targets, tying access to subsidies in clean technology heavy industry and carmaking to local production and stricter conditions on foreign investment.

The objective of the new Industrial Accelerator Act is to strengthen the industrial base and strategic autonomy of the European economy. But its impact on European Research & Development multinationals that have grown in overseas markets should not be underestimated. Evidence shows that Europe is hit harder by external shocks than its rivals because its firms depend more heavily on foreign markets and cross-border supply chains.

Consider, for example, Asia accounted for 41% of German carmaker Mercedes‑Benz in 2025, while UK-headquartered drugmaker AstraZeneca generated about 43% of its 2024 sales in the US.

Such exposure leaves a sizeable chunk of European multinationals particularly sensitive to shifts in trade policy: as protectionist measures proliferate, the backlash can quickly translate into weaker demand, disrupted supply chains and pressure on profits.

This has already become visible as trade tensions with China and the
United States have intensified and governments have moved to shield strategic industries from subsidised competition, via the Made in Europe targets.

A historically overseas market-led economy

European groups are often described as global champions; many expand abroad earlier than their American or Asian peers. Part of the reason is structural: Europe’s home market remains less integrated than the US or China. It also reflects a long tradition of building businesses internationally.

American and Asian companies can often scale at home before expanding abroad. European firms rarely have that luxury. Their global reach is a strength, but in a more fragmented world it also
creates exposure.

New research I carried out on the world’s largest corporate Research & Development spenders helps explain Europe’s position.

Vying for the top tiers of the global R&D landscape

The global race for innovation is dominated by the Americas and Asia: firms headquartered in Asia-Pacific account for about 37% of the leading R&D multinationals and those in the Americas roughly 36%, compared with about 27% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Bridging the R&D spending gap

The gap is even wider in spending: companies based in the Americas account for about 45% of total corporate R&D investment, compared with roughly 29% in Asia-Pacific and 26% in EMEA.

Yet European firms tend to operate more globally. The research shows only about 26% of EMEA-based firms earn most of their revenues in their home region.

Nearly a third operate globally, roughly twice the share of American or Asian companies. By contrast, about 76% of US firms and 75% of Asia-Pacific firms remain focused mainly on their domestic regions, supported by larger and more integrated home markets.

Navigating the impacts of trade uncertainty

Truly global companies remain rare. Only about 17% of these firms generate balanced sales across the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific. Half of them are headquartered in EMEA, compared with
roughly a quarter for each in the Americas and Asia-Pacific.

This makes European groups more exposed when trade relations sour. Illustrating this point, German carmaker BMW warned last month that tariffs imposed by the EU, the US and China could wipe around €1 billion from its profits this year, underscoring how quickly geopolitical shifts translate into financial strain for Europe’s multinationals.

If Europe wants to reduce such vulnerability, it should look beyond protectionism. For firms that already operate globally, tighter rules at home could push them to move assets abroad. That would weaken Europe’s own industrial base at the very moment policymakers are trying to strengthen it.

In other words, the end of the liberal trading era may have exposed an Achilles heel in Europe’s economic model. The continent’s multinationals are unusually dependent on markets outside Europe. In a more fragmented world, that creates two clear risks: disruption to
global value chains and the gradual relocation of investment and innovation away from Europe itself.

What’s the alternative? Not retreat, but reform

Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s report in 2024 for the European Commission set out an urgent agenda to restore Europe’s competitiveness through deeper single market
integration, regulatory reform and investment. It addresses part of the challenge. But Europe must go further, strengthening its own base for research, innovation and industry. That requires action at a European level. Completing the single market is not just about harmonising rules. It is about ensuring that investment, supply chains and innovation remain anchored in Europe.

As ECB President Christine Lagarde warned last year, Europe’s growth model was built for a different world. Heavy reliance on exports once underpinned prosperity. In a more fragmented global economy, it leaves Europe exposed.

The lesson is clear: Europe’s problem is not so much globalisation, but too little regional integration. Until the efforts to create a single market truly pave the way for sound economic foundations, Europe’s multinationals will remain highly globalised and exposed. But such an ambition goes beyond economic goals: it is a political ambition that is at loggerheads with nationalist sentiments to achieve the right level of territorial growth, which would ultimately secure greater independence.

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Regis Coeurderoy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Why Europe’s ‘open’ economy of innovation is exposed to global trade shifts – https://theconversation.com/why-europes-open-economy-of-innovation-is-exposed-to-global-trade-shifts-278327

March 18, 2026

What an ancient Chinese philosopher can teach us about Americans’ obsession with college rankings

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Stephen Chen, Associate Professor of Psychology, Wellesley College

A visitor looks at calligraphy by Luo Sangui of the Daodejing, the classic Daoist text, during the Nanjing 2014 Grand Art Exhibition in Nanjing, China. Visual China Group via Getty Images

Each March, many of the country’s most selective colleges and universities release their admissions decisions, reviving debates over the roles of race, wealth and privilege – and putting Americans’ cultural obsession with rankings back in the spotlight.

Meanwhile, a more personal set of questions will emerge in many homes and schools. Who got into a “better” school, and why? And for those who didn’t, what to do with a dream school deferred? What’s missing are more fundamental questions about the costs of striving for status and how to know when to stop.

From my former life as a college counselor to my current one as a psychology professor, I’ve spent more than two decades working with Asian American families, the demographic group that often finds itself at the center of college admissions debates. I listen as they grapple with questions of race, social status and who makes it in the U.S. and why. I’ve also seen firsthand, both inside and outside of the research lab, how some students’ never-ending quest for achievement takes a toll on their mental health.

Americans’ frenzy over college admissions may be a relatively modern affliction, but striving for status is timeless and universal, and it can benefit from the wisdom of ancient texts. This is why, in my team’s research with Asian American families, we bring the Chinese philosopher Laozi into the conversation. Through the Daodejing, one of the central texts of Daoism, Laozi offers perspectives from a tumultuous period of status-striving in Chinese history – and shifts our focus from comparison and competition to contentment.

The ‘success frame’

In interviews with Asian American parents, children and teens over the past 10 years, I hear echoes of what sociologists Jennifer Lee and Min Zhou call the “Asian American success frame”: success defined by elite educational credentials, graduate degrees and select occupations. Their research shows how the success frame is endorsed by Asian Americans across different ethnic groups, generations and socioeconomic brackets.

My team’s ongoing interviews, in turn, provide a window into how that idea of success is promoted. One mother told her 11-year-old son her wish is for him not to pursue an M.D. or a Ph.D., but both. Another parent of a 16-year-old with college applications on the horizon discouraged her from applying to state schools, because she had heard that some job recruiters consider only Ivy League resumes.

A small crowd of young people in black robes and flat black hats wait under a stone archway. — Future graduates wait for the procession to begin for the 2010 commencement ceremony at Yale University in New Haven, Conn.
AP Photo/Jessica Hill

These conversations rarely mention the toll of chasing these highly specific, highly ambitious benchmarks of success. Rather, it comes to light when we talk with parents one-on-one about their own experiences. One lamented being a doctor, but not the “right kind” of doctor; another mentioned getting a Ph.D., but not from the best school; yet another described landing the job they sought when they immigrated to the U.S., only to run up against “bamboo ceilings” in their career.

Each of these comparisons involves relative or subjective social status: not how much education, wealth or prestige people actually have, but how much they think they have, relative to others. Decades of research indicate that thinking you have lower relative status takes a unique toll on mental and physical health.

I see this in my lab’s studies, as well: Parents who perceive themselves as being lower in subjective social status report more depressive symptoms, and children who perceive themselves as having low relative status report more loneliness, even when accounting for families’ actual levels of income and education.

Likewise, scholars Zhou and Lee identify similar struggles among Asian Americans shouldering the weight of these social comparisons. A woman who attended a lower-ranked college than her family members told researchers she “feels like the ‘black sheep’ of the family”; a man rejected from elite Ph.D. programs considers himself a failure for “only having a B.A.”

The unending climb of status comparisons can be a crushing load – and this is where Laozi comes into the conversation.

Dangers of desire

By some accounts, Laozi was a contemporary of Confucius in the sixth century B.C.E. – though the details of his biography are more legendary than factual.

Traditionally, he has been venerated as the author of the Daodejing, a foundational text of Daoism: a Chinese philosophical and religious tradition centered around following the “dao,” or “the way” of nature. The general consensus of modern scholarship, however, is that the Daodejing reflects the work of generations of thinkers and editors, and that even the name “Laozi” embodies ideas developed over centuries.

A faded scroll with a bit of Chinese script shows an elderly man in a robe sitting on top of an ox. — ‘Laozi Riding an Ox,’ by Zhang Lu (15th-16th century).
National Palace Museum via Wikimedia Commons

Most scholars date the composition of the Daodejing to China’s Warring States period, from 475-221 B.C.E. It was a time of tremendous technological, economic and political change, when competitions for status played out on the battlefield. Given this historical context, it’s little surprise that much of the text’s musings are devoted to status-chasing and the dark side of human desire.

For example, the Daodejing criticizes the ruling class and its talent-recruitment system for dangling enticing status markers that could never be fully achieved. Dreaming of prestige could feel like a full assault on the senses, as captured in Ken Liu’s luminous translation:

A profusion of colors blinds the eye.
A cacophony of noises deafens the ear.
A flood of flavors numbs the tongue.
Rushing and chasing, the mind becomes unsettled.
Craving and desiring, the heart loses itself on crooked paths.

The Daodejing may be an ancient text, but part of its enduring appeal is its timelessness. Through Liu’s prose, we can easily imagine Laozi critiquing today’s profusion of college influencer videos, a cacaphony of Reddit threads trumpeting admissions strategies, and high school students rushing and chasing after a stacked resume.

Laozi sees plainly the Sisyphean nature of achieving: that it inevitably leads to desiring more. He offers a stark warning: “The more you desire, the more it costs. / The more you hoard, the more you’ll waste.”

Critically, as the philosopher Curie Virág argues, Laozi isn’t suggesting that people abandon desire altogether. Rather, our truest desires can only be uncovered when we’ve freed ourselves from those imposed by society. And it’s the satisfaction of these true desires that can lead to contentment.

Deeper questions

In my research team’s ongoing study with Chinese American parents and adolescents, we present a phrase encapsulating one of the core teachings of the Daodejing: that contentment – knowing or mastering satisfaction – leads to happiness. We then ask parents to explain to their child what they think it means and whether or not they agree.

Most parents are familiar with the phrase. Some endorse it, while others add caveats. Being content is different from being lazy, some emphasize; it’s not an excuse to stop striving. Many struggle to articulate the distinctions between contentment, laziness and healthy ambition – and as a psychologist, I admit that I’m right there with them.

I want Laozi to provide a clear definition for contentment, and even better, a formula for how to find it. But the Daodejing is more descriptive than prescriptive – less how-to and more what is. In Liu’s description, the text is Laozi’s invitation into a conversation, and it allows our deepest questions to come to the surface. Beneath the race for rank and status, what is it that we actually desire, and how do we find it?

These are difficult questions for any parent to answer. But if we’re willing to start the conversation, we can begin by asking them first of ourselves.

Preparation of this essay was supported in part by a grant from the Asian Pacific American Religions Research Initiative.

– ref. What an ancient Chinese philosopher can teach us about Americans’ obsession with college rankings – https://theconversation.com/what-an-ancient-chinese-philosopher-can-teach-us-about-americans-obsession-with-college-rankings-277059

March 18, 2026

Kent’s meningitis outbreak was years in the making – here’s why

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Philip Broadbent, Wellcome Multimorbidity PhD Fellow & Public Health Registrar, University of Glasgow

Two young people are dead and 20 are receiving treatment after a meningitis outbreak at the University of Kent. The students caught up in it belong to a generation that has never been routinely vaccinated against the strain responsible.

That is not because a vaccine doesn’t exist. It does. Bexsero, which protects against meningococcal group B disease (the strain responsible for the Kent outbreak) has been available since 2013. The UK even became the first country in the world to add it to its national immunisation schedule, in September 2015.

But only for babies.

Every student at university today was born before July 2015, meaning every one of them missed the cut-off. The NHS never offered them the jab and no catch-up programme was ever provided. A decade of students has passed through higher education with no routine protection against the most common form of bacterial meningitis.

The decision not to extend the programme beyond infants reflects a genuine tension at the heart of vaccine policy. The government’s advisory body, the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation (JCVI) concluded that the benefit, real as it was, did not clear the economic threshold required to justify the cost.

With many vaccines, the benefit extends beyond the person vaccinated. Vaccinate enough people and the disease runs out of hosts, protecting even those who never received the jab – this is known as herd immunity. Bexsero does not work that way. It protects the person who receives it, but it does not reduce the amount of bacteria people carry in their throats and pass on to others.

Vaccinating a baby stops that baby getting ill; it does nothing to stop the bacteria circulating in the wider population. With no such ripple effect to factor in, the JCVI judged the benefit too narrow to justify extending the programme.

What that calculation did not fully account for was the particular danger of university life.

Meningococcal bacteria spread through close contact: kissing, sharing drinks, coughing in crowded spaces. Universities, with their halls of residence, freshers’ weeks and nightclubs, are among the most efficient environments imaginable for transmission.

A study tracking students during their first week at a UK university found that the proportion carrying the bacteria in their throats jumped from less than 7% on day one to over 23% by day four. By December of that year, in catered halls, the figure had reached 34%.

In the US, research found that first-year undergraduate students face a risk of meningococcal B disease almost 12 times higher than their non-student peers of the same age. Living in halls of residence amplified that risk further still.

None of this is new. The link between university life and meningococcal risk has been established for decades. The question that the tragic events in Kent force policymakers to consider is whether that increased risk was adequately factored into the original decision.

A box containing the Bexsero vaccine. — Bexsero has been available since 2013.
Angelina Avei/Shutterstock.com

Parents who wanted to protect their children privately could. Many of them did. A full course of Bexsero requires two doses for anyone over the age of 11. At most UK pharmacies, each dose costs around £110, making the full course £220 or more. Some private clinics charge considerably more.

As one public health expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine put it, the availability of private vaccination creates a situation where access depends on ability to pay. That inequality is now playing out in real time.

Following the Kent outbreak, bookings for private meningitis B vaccinations at Superdrug surged to 65 times their normal level. The families rushing to book appointments are inevitably those who can afford to. Those who cannot are left hoping the outbreak does not reach their child.

Long-term costs

Vaccine policy is genuinely difficult. Every decision involves trade-offs and the resources available to public health are not unlimited. But the economic case for keeping the programme infant-only has grown shakier since 2015.

A re-analysis published in the journal Value in Health in 2021 found that when a fuller picture of the disease’s burden is included (for example, long-term care, loss of earnings, the ripple effects on families) the cost per year of healthy life gained falls below the NHS’s standard threshold for approving treatments. The short-term saving from not vaccinating teenagers may be generating long-term costs the original calculation never captured.

There is also the cost of the outbreak itself. More than 30,000 people in the Canterbury area have been contacted by health authorities. Thousands of doses of antibiotics were distributed. A targeted vaccination campaign has been launched for students in halls of residence. Emergency responses to outbreaks are not without cost, and they cannot undo the harm already done.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting told parliament this week that he would ask the JCVI to reexamine eligibility for meningitis vaccines in light of the outbreak. That review is welcome, and overdue.

The first cohort of babies vaccinated in 2015 will not reach university age until 2033. Until then, the students arriving at freshers’ week each autumn will do so without routine protection. Unless policy changes.

Philip Broadbent receives funding from the Wellcome Trust Multimorbidity Doctoral Training Programme 223499/Z/21/Z

– ref. Kent’s meningitis outbreak was years in the making – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/kents-meningitis-outbreak-was-years-in-the-making-heres-why-278003

March 18, 2026

Bryce Echenique: un limeño entre París, Madrid y Perugia

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Carmen Márquez Montes, Profesora Titular de Literatura española, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

Conferencia del escritor peruano Alfredo Bryce Echenique (a la izquierda), en 2007. Universidad Internacional de Andalucía, CC BY-NC

La muerte de Alfredo Bryce Echenique hace unos días ha devuelto a muchos lectores a una evidencia que nunca desapareció del todo: su literatura hizo de la memoria una forma de inteligencia sentimental. El autor fue uno de los narradores hispanoamericanos más reconocibles de su tiempo, no solo por su humor y su melancolía, sino por su capacidad para convertir la experiencia vivida en materia literaria. Su fallecimiento ha sido señalado como la pérdida de una de las grandes voces de la narrativa peruana e hispana contemporánea.

Leer a Bryce Echenique únicamente desde sus títulos más célebres sería insuficiente. Conviene atender también a las ciudades que modelaron su sensibilidad y que terminaron incorporándose a su obra no como decorados, sino como formas de vida recordada. Entre ellas destacan tres ciudades europeas a las que volvió una y otra vez, en su trayectoria y en su escritura: París, Madrid y Perugia. Son tres ciudades que ayudan a entender no solo dónde vivió sino cómo llegó a ser.

París o aprender a mirar desde lejos

París ocupa un lugar central en su geografía sentimental. Allí completó su formación universitaria y vivió una experiencia decisiva de distancia con respecto a Lima. La capital francesa no fue para él una simple escala académica ni un escenario prestigioso al que acogerse, sino un espacio de transformación vital.

Portada de Guía triste de París. — Agencia literaria Carmen Balcells

Ese matiz es importante. El París de Bryce no coincide con la imagen monumental que tantas veces ha circulado en la tradición literaria hispanoamericana. Es, más bien, una ciudad de aprendizaje duro, de lecturas, sí, pero también de amores contrariados, de fragilidad, de precariedad y de observación de uno mismo lejos del mundo de origen. Por eso reaparece con tanta densidad en títulos como Guía triste de París (1999), donde la propia formulación del título deshace cualquier tentación de mirada grandilocuente.

París fue, además, la ciudad de su amistad con Julio Ramón Ribeyro, un lugar de conversación entre escritores peruanos que compartían exilio, observación irónica del mundo y una relación compleja con el reconocimiento.

La distancia nunca implica ruptura total con Lima. París le permite mirar el origen desde fuera, entenderlo mejor y convertirlo en literatura. De ahí que su novela Un mundo para Julius (1970), aunque profundamente limeña en su materia, no pueda desligarse del todo de esa experiencia europea que enseñó al autor a recordar con mayor lucidez.

Madrid: la conversación como patria

Madrid parece haber representado para Bryce otra forma de arraigo: la de la amistad y la interlocución. En sus declaraciones públicas más tardías insistió en la importancia que la ciudad tuvo para él como espacio de convivencia, trato y continuidad afectiva. No se trata de una observación menor. Toda la obra de Bryce está atravesada por una fe muy particular en la conversación.

Madrid era un lugar especialmente propicio para esa sociabilidad. No solo por la lengua común, sino por la textura misma de su vida literaria y urbana. Frente a la extranjería más marcada de París, Madrid ofrecía un espacio de pertenencia menos desgarrado, más inmediato, donde el escritor podía sostener amistades, circular por el campo cultural y seguir alimentando esa oralidad tan característica de su estilo. La relevancia madrileña no fue únicamente privada, porque la ciudad fue también un lugar de consagración en el espacio cultural en español.

Ese Madrid dialoga muy bien con novelas como La vida exagerada de Martín Romaña (1981) y El hombre que hablaba de Octavia de Cádiz (1985), donde la experiencia europea aparece atravesada por la errancia, el humor, la afectividad y una continua necesidad de interlocutores. Las ciudades no se definen solo por lo que se ve de ellas, sino por las voces que contienen. Madrid pertenece, en ese sentido, a la gran tradición de sus lugares conversados, ciudades donde el yo no se afirma aislándose, sino hablando con los otros.

Perugia: el retiro donde nace una voz

Perugia suele quedar en un segundo plano cuando se resume la biografía de Bryce Echenique, pero su importancia es muy considerable. No se trata de una gran capital cultural ni de un enclave habitual en los relatos sobre la literatura hispanoamericana del siglo XX. En Perugia escribió, con apenas veintinueve años, los cuentos de Huerto cerrado (1968), el libro con el que inició su carrera y que obtuvo una mención en el Premio Casa de las Américas.

Portada del libro Huerto cerrado de Bryce Echenique. — Agencia literaria de Carmen Balcells

Ese dato cambia por completo la posición de la ciudad italiana en su itinerario. Perugia no es una simple ciudad evocada al pasar, sino el lugar donde empieza a consolidarse una voz narrativa propia. Si París había sido el aprendizaje de la distancia y Madrid llegaría a ser la ciudad de la amistad sostenida, Perugia aparece como el espacio de concentración, de comienzo y de decantación. Allí se perfila el primer Bryce Echenique, todavía no el novelista de consagración internacional, pero sí el narrador que descubre que puede transformar materiales dispersos de la vida en una prosa con cadencia propia.

Perugia permite, además, corregir una imagen demasiado lineal del escritor hispanoamericano en Europa. No se formó solo en grandes metrópolis ni en los espacios visibles del prestigio; necesitó también ciudades menos estridentes, lugares de retirada donde la experiencia pudiera asentarse y adquirir forma. Esa necesidad armoniza con algo muy profundo de su obra: la tensión constante entre el flujo oral de la memoria y el trabajo silencioso que lo convierte en literatura.

Tres ciudades para una autobiografía sentimental

París, Madrid y Perugia forman así una secuencia muy reveladora. Cada ciudad aporta una experiencia específica y todas juntas componen una auténtica autobiografía sentimental.

El centro, en último término, siguió siendo Lima. Las ciudades europeas no borraron su condición de escritor limeño y peruano. Más bien la hicieron más compleja y consciente. Tantas veces Pedro (1977), No me esperen en abril (1995) o sus antimemorias muestran hasta qué punto su mundo narrativo se construye en esa oscilación entre la cercanía del origen y la lejanía que permite releerlo.
Quizá por eso resulte adecuado pensarlo no como un escritor que acumuló ciudades en su currículo, sino que convirtió ciertos lugares en formas de conciencia.

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Carmen Márquez Montes no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

– ref. Bryce Echenique: un limeño entre París, Madrid y Perugia – https://theconversation.com/bryce-echenique-un-limeno-entre-paris-madrid-y-perugia-278451

March 18, 2026

Trump and Netanyahu may have jointly started the war in Iran, but ending it together will be difficult

Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Strawson, Emeritus Professor of Law, University of East London

Donald Trump told reporters on board Air Force One on March 15 that his relationship with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is “extraordinary”. Netanyahu has been rather less effusive, saying in recent days that their relationship is one of “dialogue, shared concepts, consultation and joint work”.

These comments come as reports are circulating of rifts between the two leaders over the war in Iran, which Trump has rejected as “fake news”. The reported tensions underline not only Trump and Netanyahu’s very different war aims but also the character differences that have shaped their relationship.

Writing in the Sunday Times on March 15, the UK’s former ambassador to Israel, Matthew Gould, pointed out that both men are similar in “some respects”. Like Trump, Netanyahu is a “populist making his country more divided with crude fearmongering; a huge character who sucks oxygen from the entire political scene.”

However, there are some key differences. While Trump had five deferments to avoid serving in the Vietnam war, for example, Netanyahu distinguished himself in the Israeli armed forces. This included serving five years in the elite Sayeret Matkal unit from 1967 to 1972.

Such different backgrounds count especially as Trump and Netanyahu work together in the military confrontation with Iran. Trump has often been cavalier and brags about US military strength, whereas Netanyahu is far more measured. Trump is also regularly talking to journalists, while Netanyahu has been sparing in his interactions with the media.

At the same time, the war with Iran has a very different meaning for Israel and the US. Netanyahu has made the Iranian threat to Israel the most consistent theme of his political career. Since 2019, when it became clear that Iran was enriching uranium over the 3.5% to 5% level needed for peaceful purposes (it now has over 440 tonnes of uranium enriched to over 60%), Netanyahu has seen the threat to Israel as existential.

Trump’s grounds for launching the war have shifted, from wanting to destroy Iran’s military capabilities to toppling the regime in Tehran. But Netanyahu has consistently remained focused on removing what he sees as the threefold threat from Iran: its nuclear weapons programme, ballistic missile capacity and ability to support regional proxy groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Trump knows the war is unpopular at home and among his allies and is creating instability in the world economy. Oil prices climbed to over US$100 (£75) a barrel on March 16 after Trump said the US had “totally demolished” most of Kharg Island, Iran’s most vital oil export hub. Facing midterm elections in October, he is likely to want to see the conflict end relatively soon.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, will not want to end the war without imposing a decisive defeat on Iran that ends the country’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes at the very least. Like Trump, he faces an election in October and will want to present himself not as the leader whose watch saw the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks in 2023, but as the victor of the war with Iran.

Ending the war

How Trump and Netanyahu manage these differences will determine both the course of the war and its duration. We do know that while the two leaders frequently pay effusive compliments to each other in public, they have a rather more fractious personal relationship.

Six months ago, Trump strong-armed Netanyahu to accept his 20-point plan for a Gaza ceasefire. This involved Netanyahu making a humiliating phone call to the Qataris to apologise for an Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Doha. The White House even published a picture of the US president and the Israeli prime minister making the call.

And while routinely praising Trump for his support for Israel, Netanyahu appears to be wary of their relationship. In his 2022 autobiography, Bibi: My Story, Netanyahu complained that Trump was slow to act on the Israeli government’s agenda in his first term as US president. He also described his relationship with Trump as “bumpy”.

Trump’s second term has been a rather mixed experience for Netanyahu. On the one hand, he convinced the US to bomb the Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and since February 2026 to collaborate in a major war against Iran. But on the other hand, he (like everyone else) is having to deal Trump’s capricious and unpredictable behaviour.

The war in Iran is now in a difficult phase. Israel and the US have an overwhelming firepower advantage over Iran and have eliminated numerous high-ranking Iranian leadership figures, most recently killing security chief and de facto leader of the country Ali Larijani. Despite these serious blows, the regime is still functioning and maintains significant military capacity.

For Israel, a new development in the war is coordinated Iranian-Hezbollah missile attacks. This demonstrates the very different pressures that the US and Israeli leaderships are under. Israelis are now in their third year of war. The US will be feeling the effects of the war in terms of higher gas prices and a spike in inflation, but the lives of Americans are not punctuated by air raid sirens and military service.

These differences will play out as Trump and Netanyahu envisage the war’s end. There are reports that the US administration is talking to Iran already about ending the conflict as the war enters its third week. Netanyahu will worry where these diplomatic moves might lead.

Trump and Netanyahu may have started a war together, but they are going to have difficulty ending it together.

John Strawson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump and Netanyahu may have jointly started the war in Iran, but ending it together will be difficult – https://theconversation.com/trump-and-netanyahu-may-have-jointly-started-the-war-in-iran-but-ending-it-together-will-be-difficult-278483

March 18, 2026

What is ‘eye stroke’ and why has it been linked to weight loss injections?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Barbara Pierscionek, Professor and Deputy Dean, Research and Innovation, Anglia Ruskin University

The phrase “eye stroke” has recently appeared in news reports about a very rare side-effect of weight-loss injections. It’s not a formal medical diagnosis, but a shorthand used to describe a condition in which reduced blood flow damages the optic nerve and causes sudden vision loss.

The phrase might be misleading. Unlike a conventional stroke – which can cause someone to lose the ability to move their limbs or speak – an eye stroke can be harder to recognise at first. Vision can be lost entirely or partially, in one or both eyes, with no numbness or paralysis.

The word “stroke” is used because, as with the more familiar condition, the underlying cause is a loss of blood supply that leads to cell death and tissue damage. The correct medical term for an eye stroke is non-arteritic anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy (Naion).

The recent connection between Naion and weight-loss treatments has made headlines following a large study examining semaglutide, the active ingredient in several popular weight-loss drugs.

Researchers analyse more than 30 million side-effects reported to the US Food and Drug Administration and found that 31,774 involved semaglutide. One drug in particular stood out: Wegovy was found to have a far stronger association with Naion than other semaglutide-based treatments.

The study suggested the risk of eye stroke from Wegovy was almost five times greater than from Ozempic, despite Wegovy being linked to fewer overall reported side-effects.

Understanding why semaglutide might reduce blood flow to the eye requires a little background. Semaglutide is a synthetic version of a naturally occurring hormone called GLP-1, which helps regulate blood sugar. It does this by stimulating insulin production, reducing the release of a sugar-raising hormone called glucagon, and slowing digestion.

Semaglutide has been used to treat type 2 diabetes, heart disease and obesity. Wegovy is administered by injection at a higher maximum dose than Ozempic, another injectable medication. Injected drugs enter the bloodstream faster and in greater concentrations than tablets – and notably, no link was found between Naion and Rybelsus, the tablet form of semaglutide.

The speed at which Wegovy causes weight loss – faster than other treatments – may itself be part of the explanation. The human body is a finely balanced system in which no single organ or process works in isolation. The autonomic nervous system, which controls involuntary functions like heart rate and digestion, relies on a careful balance of hormones to keep things in check. When an external drug significantly alters how those hormones behave, it can affect the rest of the body in unexpected ways.

The relatively high doses used with Wegovy may cause blood pressure to fluctuate beyond normal ranges. A notable drop in blood pressure reduces the rate at which blood flows through the body, and the eye is particularly vulnerable to this. The retina is served by some of the tiniest blood vessels anywhere in the body, and it depends on those small vessels for its oxygen supply. Any significant change in blood pressure can seriously disrupt this delicate circulation.

Men face a much higher risk than women

This does not, however, fully explain why a drug that is broadly beneficial for heart health and blood sugar control might have such a specific harmful effect on eyesight. Nor does it explain another surprising finding from the study: men taking these weight-loss treatments appeared to face three times the risk of vision loss compared to women.

A man having his eyes examined. — The condition is much more common in men.
Inside Creative House/Shutterstock.com

The study did not provide enough detail about the differences between male and female participants. For instance, whether more severely obese men than women were included. In addition, large-scale data of this kind does not always capture the finer details needed to fully understand cause and effect.

It is important to keep all this in perspective: while a link between semaglutide and vision loss has been identified, this side-effect remains rare.

More research is needed to establish safe dosage levels and to understand whether certain factors – such as sex, age, weight, or existing health conditions – make some people more vulnerable than others. Semaglutide is being prescribed for a growing range of conditions and increasingly to younger patients. To ensure that these treatments do not lead to life-changing sight loss, properly designed clinical trials that assess the level of risk are essential.

A spokesperson for Novo Nordisk told the Guardian: “Patient safety is our top priority, and we take any reports about adverse events from the use of our medicines very seriously. We work closely with authorities and regulatory bodies from around the world to continuously monitor the safety profile of our products.”

The EU patient leaflets for Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus had been updated to include Naion, they added, but “based on the totality of evidence, we concluded that the data did not suggest a reasonable possibility of a causal relationship between semaglutide and Naion and Novo Nordisk believes that the benefit-risk profile of semaglutide remains favourable”.

Barbara Pierscionek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What is ‘eye stroke’ and why has it been linked to weight loss injections? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-eye-stroke-and-why-has-it-been-linked-to-weight-loss-injections-278167

March 18, 2026

Extreme heat may keep millions from exercising, linked to 500,000 early deaths yearly

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vikram Niranjan, Assistant Professor in Public Health, School of Medicine, Health Research Institute, University of Limerick

A hotter world is quietly changing one of the simplest things we do for our health – moving our bodies. For many people, a walk in the park, a jog around the neighbourhood or a cycle to work is becoming harder, and sometimes unsafe, as temperatures rise.

Scientists are beginning to understand how heat affects physical activity and why this matters for long-term health. A new modelling study in The Lancet Global Health suggests that if rising temperatures lead to sustained reductions in activity, the knock-on effects could contribute to hundreds of thousands of premature deaths each year by the middle of this century.

The underlying behaviour is familiar. As temperatures climb, many people cut back on outdoor exercise. There is no single threshold, but activity often becomes noticeably less comfortable somewhere in the high 20s celsius, especially in humid conditions. Running, cycling or even brisk walking can feel more strenuous.

This is because the body has to work harder to stay cool. More blood is diverted to the skin and sweating increases, which can lead to earlier fatigue, dizziness and dehydration. Faced with this, people may slow down, shorten their exercise or avoid it altogether. Across large populations, this can translate into less movement, more time spent sitting and higher risks of chronic disease.

Some groups are more affected than others. Older adults tend to regulate temperature less efficiently. Women may experience different responses depending on physiology and hormonal factors. People with respiratory conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease can find breathing more difficult in hot and humid conditions, especially during exertion.

Over time, even small reductions in activity matter. Regular movement helps protect against heart disease, stroke, diabetes and other chronic illnesses. When activity levels fall, those protective effects diminish.

The modelling study estimates that, if warming continues and outdoor activity declines without compensation elsewhere, the resulting increase in inactivity could contribute to a substantial number of additional deaths by 2050. These would not be caused directly by heat itself, but by the gradual development of diseases linked to inactivity. The scale of the estimate depends heavily on how people adapt – for example, whether they move exercise indoors or shift it to cooler times of day.

The poor bear the brunt

The effects of heat are not evenly distributed. In wealthier settings, people are more likely to have access to air-conditioned gyms, indoor sports facilities or shaded green spaces. When it becomes too hot outside, they may have alternatives.

In many low- and middle-income countries, those options are more limited. People may live in densely built areas with little green space or cooling. Outdoor work is also more common, meaning higher overall heat exposure alongside fewer safe opportunities for recreation.

A labourer wiping the sweat from his brow. — Outdoor work means higher exposure to heat.
Poguz.P/Shutterstock.com

Research from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, illustrates this imbalance. Heatwaves there are associated with increased deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, particularly among older adults and women. Many deaths occur at home, pointing to gaps in cooling, information and access to care.

At the same time, physical activity remains part of the wider public health response. Evidence suggests that encouraging walking, cycling and public transport can reduce emissions while improving health. A framework in the journal Nature Health highlights how designing cities for active travel can support both cleaner air and more consistent physical activity.

There is also growing recognition that climate change may disrupt sport and recreation directly. The UK body Sport England has warned that heat, flooding and drought could damage facilities and reduce participation unless infrastructure adapts.

Some responses are already being tested. Tree-lined streets and shaded paths can lower urban temperatures. Parks with water features and dense planting offer cooler spaces for activity. Guidance increasingly recommends exercising in the early morning or evening, when conditions are milder, and research supports these adjustments as practical ways to maintain activity safely.

Technology may also play a role. During the COVID pandemic, many people turned to home-based exercise, online classes and simple equipment such as resistance bands. A study I conducted found that even housebound patients with serious lung disease could improve fitness, mood and quality of life through structured virtual programmes.

Similar approaches could help during periods of extreme heat. Online sessions, community “cool hubs” in air-conditioned buildings and guided indoor exercise can provide alternatives when outdoor conditions are unsuitable.

Exercise is not just a lifestyle choice but a core component of health. As the climate warms, the challenge will be to ensure people can remain active in ways that are safe and accessible. That is likely to involve a mix of individual adaptation and changes to the environments in which people live.

Vikram Niranjan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Extreme heat may keep millions from exercising, linked to 500,000 early deaths yearly – https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-may-keep-millions-from-exercising-linked-to-500-000-early-deaths-yearly-278330

March 18, 2026

Who were the ‘peasants’ of the 1381 Peasants’ Revolt? New database has answers

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adrian R Bell, Chair in the History of Finance and Associate Pro-Vice-Chancellor Research, Prosperity and Resilience, Henley Business School, University of Reading

Richard II meeting with the rebels of the Peasants’ Revolt of 1381. Bibliothèque nationale de France

The Peasants’ Revolt of 1381 was one of the largest and most dramatic popular uprisings in medieval Europe. But what do we really know about this celebrated event in English history?

The rising was the culmination of a wide range of popular grievances against the government of the young King Richard II and his uncle John of Gaunt. The trigger was the levy of a third poll tax in four years to fund the hundred years war.

To understand the depth of the rebellion and its impact on society today, we created the People of 1381, a database of events, places and people comprising around 28,000 records. It challenges the established narrative that the revolt was focused on a handful of counties in England and restricted to certain levels of society.

The term “Peasants’ Revolt” was not popularised until 1874 by John Richard Green’s Short History of the English People. The legal records generated by the prosecution of the rebels reveal that they were not just peasants but drawn from every level of medieval society beneath the aristocracy.

Our database shows how widespread the depth of feeling was against the government. The revolt wasn’t just a march on London – it involved people in over half the counties of England. In the west, there were riots in Bridgwater and Gloucester, while the disturbances spread as far north as Yorkshire and Chester.

A 15th-century illustration of the cleric John Ball encouraging the rebels. Wat Tyler is shown in red, front left.
British Library, Royal MS. 18 E. I, f. 165v

The medieval records that make up the database uncover the participation of social groups whose role in the revolt has been underexplored, including household servants, soldiers and women.

It also includes details of those who didn’t partake directly but were affected in some way, from victims of the rising to jurors and lawyers who prosecuted the rebels. In doing so, the database sheds new light on the rebels of 1381. They are revealed as once living people, rather than the faceless mob described in contemporary chronicles.

So who was involved and where?

By combining judicial and manorial (administrative records generated by a manor) documents with records generated by central and local government, poll tax and military service, we can build a picture of the people involved in the revolt.

John Peper of Linton is one example: he owned land, granted charters, engaged in lawsuits and could afford lawyers – a far cry from the profile of a peasant. He was also one of the many rebels who had social aspirations and apparently resented the legal and fiscal checks on their ambition.

Peper highlights the important leadership role of soldiers in spreading the revolt. Having just returned from campaigning in France in May, he immediately joined the revolt and led groups attacking people and property around Cambridgeshire. He survived the government reaction and was ultimately pardoned.

Etching showing the death of Wat Tyler on horse back. — Sir William Walworth, Lord Mayor of London, killing Wat Tyler in Smithfield by Anker Smith (1796).
The Trustees of the British Museum

There were also many poorer rural rebels and it was the way people of many social ranks joined the rising that made it so potent.

Manorial records are fascinating because they enable us to reconstruct the lives of very humble people. For example, Walter Spittebotter of Blackmore near Chelmsford was admitted to land previously held by his father in 1354-55. He found farming a struggle and was fined for the poor condition of his land and not clearing ditches. In 1381, he was among those who attacked the manor of Joan of Kent at North Weald Bassett in Essex. On his death in 1404, he held a cottage and six acres of land. His best animal, forfeited to the lord of the manor, was a pig.

In Wix (Essex), Joanna Welbetyn, Joanna Alfred and the wife of Thomas Ilsent joined in the burning of the manor’s records during the revolt. Our database suggests that sometimes women joined the rising as part of a family group. Joan Pode of Charlton joined one of the most spectacular events of the rising – the destruction of John of Gaunt’s luxurious Savoy Palace (on the present site of the Savoy Hotel). Joan was accompanied by her husband and another relative, suggesting that the whole Pode family joined the rising.

Unlike contemporary chronicles, the legal records show how women intervened at key moments in the revolt, most dramatically when Katherine Gamen was accused of pushing a boat out across the River Little Ouse in Suffolk. The chief justice could not escape and was killed.

illustration of medieval women sheep farmers — Medieval peasant women were also involved in the revolt.
Luttrell Psalter: British Library, Add. MS. 42130, f. 163v

The tantalising nature of much of the source material regarding women in 1381 is illustrated through the example of an unnamed woman who joined the attack. We know nothing about her except that she was “lately the wife of William Dekne” and was “led by Nicholas Carter”. They were part of a band which travelled from South Benfleet near the Thames Estuary up to Cressing Temple (a distance of over 30 miles, covered in a couple of days).

It is frustrating that we don’t know more about this unnamed woman. Why was she led by Nicholas Carter, and what was their relationship? But she demonstrates that some women did take part in the movement of rebel bands over long distances, even if they were in the minority.

The People of 1381 database is a versatile tool which enables us to develop many new perspectives on the revolt of 1381. We can reconstruct the background of the rebels, find connections between them, identify rebel bands, trace their movements and explore the spatial structure of the revolt.

However, we believe the ability of the database to reconstruct the human stories connected with the revolt, restoring humanity to the people caught up in the rising who have otherwise only been described in the most generic terms, is its most beguiling feature.

Adrian R Bell receives funding from UKRI via AHRC. He’d like to acknowledge the full team effort in driving the project, as well as the authors: Professor Anne Curry and Ian Waldock, University of Southampton; Dr Herbert Eiden, Victoria County History; and Dr Helen Lacey, University of Oxford.

Andrew Prescott receives funding from Arts and Humanities Research Council.

Helen Killick receives funding from UKRI via AHRC.

Jason Sadler receives funding from from UKRI via AHRC.

– ref. Who were the ‘peasants’ of the 1381 Peasants’ Revolt? New database has answers – https://theconversation.com/who-were-the-peasants-of-the-1381-peasants-revolt-new-database-has-answers-278011

March 18, 2026

Men can get out of the manosphere. Here’s what former incels say about why they left

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Joshua Thorburn, PhD Candidate, School of Social Sciences, Monash University

Elisabeta Dirjan/Canva, X.com, TikTok, Wikimedia, The Conversation, CC BY-NC

Louis Theroux’s recent documentary Inside the Manosphere, alongside Netflix’s 2025 hit drama Adolescence, has driven a spike in public discussion about the “manosphere”. The term refers to a loose ecosystem of anti-feminist online communities and influencers that promote male dominance and hostility toward women.

Much of the public conversation about the manosphere focuses on how boys and young men fall into these spaces. A new study by the Australian Institute of Criminology asks a different question: how do some men manage to leave?

Real-world dangers

Concern about this online culture has grown in recent years. Increasing attention has been paid to adolescent boys and young men going down toxic online rabbit holes, moving from the misogynistic worldview of manosphere influencers toward more extreme spaces.

This includes “incel” (involuntary celibate) forums. These frame women as enemies standing in the way of men’s perceived entitlement to sex. Violent revenge against women is sometimes openly encouraged.

These concerns are warranted. Earlier anxieties largely focused on incidents of lone-offender violence in North America perpetrated by men linked to the misogynistic incel movement. It’s a threat Australia’s security agency ASIO has also flagged.

More recently, researchers and educators have raised alarms about the broader cultural impact of manosphere ideas. This includes their influence on young men’s attitudes toward women and relationships, resulting in growing rates of hostile sexism in Australian schools.

Understandably, much of the attention focuses on radicalisation into these communities. However, far less attention has been paid to what happens when some men begin to disengage from them.

‘An unhealthy loop of depression’

The Australian Institute of Criminology study provides rare insight into this process. Drawing on surveys and interviews with former participants in incel communities, the research explores how men become disillusioned with these spaces and eventually step away.

The findings add to a growing body of evidence suggesting many men first encounter these communities during periods of insecurity or loneliness.

Participants frequently described anxieties about their physical appearance, social status, sexual experience or financial success. Incel and manosphere forums claim to offer explanations and solidarity for these frustrations.

As one former incel in the institute’s study recalled, he initially felt “some togetherness with others” in the forums.

Yet the same environment often becomes corrosive. Another respondent described how the community functioned as an “echo chamber […] fulfilling their own prophecy”, fuelling what he called “an unhealthy loop of depression”.

Over time, some participants begin to notice the gap between the ideology promoted in these spaces and their everyday experiences. Positive interactions with women, supportive friendships, or simply observing that relationships in the real world do not follow the rigid rules promoted online can begin to undermine the worldview.

One participant in the study described the moment it “clicked that all of it was really wrong” when his peers, “regardless of gender”, treated him with kindness and respect.

In another study of people leaving the manosphere, a former participant reflected that the movement’s claims about women collapsed when he realised he still had a happy relationship with his wife despite being “unfit and definitely not wealthy”.

Research consistently shows leaving these spaces is a challenging experience. Disengagement is usually gradual and uneven. It often involves the slow rebuilding of identity, relationships and belonging outside the forums that once defined participants’ worldview.

Finding the pathways out

The perspectives of people who have left the manosphere deserve greater attention in public discussions. For people currently within the manosphere (and for those vulnerable to falling into it) amplifying such stories can reveal how these communities ultimately harm many of the people who believe in them.

These stories matter because public discussion about the manosphere often focuses almost exclusively on its harms. Those harms are real and serious.

But we need to be hopeful the scale of the problem can be arrested and that the men who fall into these spaces are not permanently lost to them.

Schools, policymakers and families all need these first-hand perspectives. They offer more than just insight into why boys and young men fall down the rabbit hole: they provide a crucial road map for how we might help pull them out. This is essential to violence prevention work focused on how to promote “positive masculinity”.

Maintaining that cautiously hopeful perspective is important. Without it, we risk treating radicalisation as inevitable and disengagement as impossible.

The growing body of research on men leaving these communities suggests something different. While the harms of the manosphere are real, understanding the pathways out may offer some of the most important clues for how to respond.

Joshua Thorburn completed his PhD with support from the Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.

Steven Roberts receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government. He is a Board Director at Respect Victoria, but this article is written wholly separately from that role.

– ref. Men can get out of the manosphere. Here’s what former incels say about why they left – https://theconversation.com/men-can-get-out-of-the-manosphere-heres-what-former-incels-say-about-why-they-left-278312

March 18, 2026

As Israel invades again, Lebanon faces more turmoil and possible civil war. Here are 3 ways this could go

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Mariam Farida, Lecturer in Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Studies, Macquarie University

Just two days after the US and Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in late February, Hezbollah opened a second front in the war by launching six rockets into Israel from Lebanon.

The rockets came as a surprise to many. Hezbollah, once one of Iran’s most powerful proxy fighting forces, had been severely weakened by Israel during 13 months of fighting from late 2023–24.

The militant group had also stopped firing rockets into Israel since signing a ceasefire agreement in November 2024.

According to the ceasefire, the Lebanese army was to take control of the territory south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon and prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its infrastructure. Hezbollah was also expected to move its fighters north of the river, about 30 kilometres from the border with Israel.

The Lebanese government and the Lebanese army then launched an enthusiastic public campaign to show their commitment to the systematic disarmament of Hezbollah’s fighters and dismantling of its missile launches.

But this has proved to be a monumentally difficult task for both the government and army.

The Israeli army has continued to carry out airstrikes on Hezbollah military sites and targeted assassinations of Hezbollah fighters on a near-daily basis since the ceasefire.

Hezbollah has repeatedly refused to disarm and withdraw north of the Litani River if these strikes continue.

So, the ceasefire deal was already shaky. And when fighting resumed earlier this month, Israel decided it was time to “finish the job” in Lebanon.

This week, it launched another ground invasion to completely destroy Hezbollah’s remaining military infrastructure, “just as was done against Hamas in Rafah, Beit Hanoun and the terror tunnels in Gaza”, Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said.

More than 1 million Lebanese people have already been displaced, leading to fears Israel will reoccupy southern Lebanon, as it did for 18 years from 1982 to 2000.

There are three possible scenarios for what could happen next.

1. A short-term or “limited” ground operation

Israel does not want a return to its 18-year occupation, when it was dragged into a guerrilla war with Hezbollah and other groups, and by some estimates lost hundreds of soldiers.

A limited ground operation lasting a few weeks would therefore be the most desirable scenario to minimise troop casualties on the ground.

But this carries risk, too. A limited operation would make it difficult for the Israeli army to successfully destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure. Israel has attempted these types of limited operations in the past and so far failed to stop Hezbollah rockets. Hezbollah, too, is unlikely to want to de-escalate quickly.

As such, a limited ground operation seems unlikely.

2. A war of attrition that lasts for months

This is a more possible scenario since the Hezbollah–Israel conflict is closely linked to the US–Israel war on Iran.

It has become obvious that Iran is engaged in a war of attrition with its adversaries. The regime doesn’t need to “win” the war; it just needs to hold on long enough for the US and Israel to feel enough global and domestic pressure to stop. Then, the regime can claim “victory”.

In this scenario, Hezbollah is fully capable of mirroring this strategy. If it can withstand Israeli airstrikes, it can retaliate with the type of guerilla warfare it has successfully used in the past to drag Israel into a longer conflict.

There are already signs Hezbollah fighters are adopting these strategies.

3. Another major war that will lead to reoccupation

This is the most likely scenario with highest chance of regional ripple effects.

If Israel launches a much larger ground operation, it would be aimed at fundamentally reshaping the balance of power with Hezbollah and putting more pressure on the Lebanese government before engaging in any negotiations or diplomatic settlements.

This is typical of negotiating processes: one side uses excessive violence to try to establish “new facts on the ground” and gain more leverage before entering into talks.

However, this could result in major losses for the Israeli army, similar to those suffered during its 1982 invasion and subsequent occupation.

Another possible outcome is a power vacuum in Lebanon and the outbreak of another civil war.

A Lebanese civil war would have serious implications for the region, much as the last one did from 1975 to 1990. Then, Lebanon was torn apart by multiple armed militias with different (and often competing) agendas. Hezbollah emerged from the chaos, giving Iran a powerful proxy group to threaten Israel for decades to come.

A Palestinian refugee camp near Tyre, Lebanon, during the civil war in 1982.
Wikimedia Commons

There would most likely be a major surge of refugees across Lebanon’s borders, as well.

Lebanon is already a fragile and weak country, struggling to sustain some 250,000 Palestinian and 1.3 million Syrian refugees. Now, there are 1 million displaced Lebanese from the recent fighting.

This kind of disruption would no doubt spill over into Europe, with displaced people trying to seek refuge there, similar to the height of the Syrian civil war.

An Israeli reoccupation of southern Lebanon could also give Hezbollah a much-needed boost in legitimacy among the Lebanese people, if it is able to survive the war and targeted killings of its leaders.

Hezbollah will easily be able to frame its operations as a form of resistance or muqawama, much as it did in its early years. This could be viewed in several ways: resistance against occupation, resistance against oppressive regimes and resistance against the US and Israel.

Wherever this conflict goes, the Lebanese people – and beleaguered Lebanese state – will pay the highest price, trapped again in a geopolitical contest they didn’t start and feel powerless to stop.

Mariam Farida does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As Israel invades again, Lebanon faces more turmoil and possible civil war. Here are 3 ways this could go – https://theconversation.com/as-israel-invades-again-lebanon-faces-more-turmoil-and-possible-civil-war-here-are-3-ways-this-could-go-278408