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November 16, 2025

Why aging shouldn’t be classified as a disease

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ahmed Al-Juhany, PhD Candidate, University of Calgary

In 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) released the 11th edition of the International Classification of Diseases — a global, standard-setting guideline for how institutions should understand and organize health information. In it was a new diagnostic category for symptoms and signs of disease: “old age.”

The new category sparked outrage and, in 2021, the WHO backed down. It replaced “old age” with the more cumbersome but less incendiary category of “ageing-associated declines in intrinsic capacities.”

The reversal dealt a blow to scientists who, for years, had fought to have institutions formally classify aging as a disease. Older age, after all, is a major predictor of hypertension, cancer and other chronic conditions. And if we delve into the biology behind this association, we’ll find that the changes making us visibly “age” also make us more susceptible to those chronic conditions over time. The same cellular changes that cause wrinkles, for example, are also involved in atherosclerosis — a chronic condition that can lead to stroke and heart attacks.

With these facts in mind, it can be hard to see why we shouldn’t classify aging as a disease.

And yet, there’s good reason not to. Doing so risks stigmatizing older age and exacerbating ageism. Ethical concerns like these should factor into our medical classifications; in fact, they’re unavoidable. To see why, we’ll need to take a closer look at what it means to call anything a disease.

What we do when we classify diseases

A label is a powerful thing — the “disease” label, especially so.

Classifying anything as a disease marks it as something bad: a defect, a disorder, something we most definitely don’t want.

There are plenty of legitimate reasons why something might be classified as a disease, despite the label’s connotations. It may help set a clear target for medicine to cure, like distinguishing Alzheimer’s disease from other causes of dementia. Or it may help find the right framing for a problem. Classifying alcoholism as a disease, for example, can clarify the fact that people’s struggles with alcohol aren’t owed to a lack of willpower.

But if our classification of diseases depends on our strategic aims, then by implication, they also depend on the ethical values our aims reflect.

Think of the pathologizing views of autism and ADHD that the neurodiversity movement resists. In taking neurodivergent brains to be diseased or disordered, these views implicitly brand them as defective — unfortunate deviations from the way “normal” brains are supposed to work. This results in stigma: prejudicial attitudes that take neurodivergent people to be inferior in some way.

The neurodiversity movement resists these views primarily on ethical grounds. Treating people as though they’re inferior goes against the fundamental belief that, no matter our differences, we should all be able to interact as social equals. We all deserve some baseline of mutual respect.

Why aging shouldn’t be classified as a disease

Which brings us back to aging, an incredibly complex process that influences almost every aspect of our lives. It might make us more vulnerable to some diseases, but it’s more than just a health risk.

It is, in many ways, embodied biography — a physiological testament to all the changes we go through in life (anti-ageism activist Maggie Kuhn took pride in her wrinkles, seeing them as “a badge of distinction”).

Aging is also an opportunity for us to grow. It can mean change, but change that helps keep our lives as rich and rewarding as ever. If, for example, our libidos happen to wane with age, we can often learn to appreciate and practise new ways of showing affection, exploring different touches and intimacies that make us feel even more connected with our partners.

And, contrary to stereotypes, science shows that many things can improve with age, like our emotional well-being, semantic memory and some aspects of our executive function.

There’s a lot to value and celebrate about growing older.

But classifying aging as a disease would flatten all these nuances, all these gains, and frame it as a process of mere decline — one that only robs us of our health.

In an already ageist world, the consequences could be dire. Think of the people pressured out of jobs because their employers believe they’re “too old,” or of the people whose medical concerns get ignored because their doctors believe their ailments are just a “natural” part of getting older. These people aren’t made vulnerable because they’ve aged, but because of the mistaken belief that aging is a process that’s worn them out.

The belief, then, stigmatizes older age. It implies that older people have “deteriorated” and, as a result, have somehow become inferior. Classifying aging as a disease would risk bolstering this harmful belief. It could cement the negative associations people already have about aging and strengthen the hold of their prejudices.

In other words, it could exacerbate ageism.

That is a strong ethical reason to not classify aging as a disease.

Ahmed Al-Juhany does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why aging shouldn’t be classified as a disease – https://theconversation.com/why-aging-shouldnt-be-classified-as-a-disease-268277

November 16, 2025

When we gamble with the integrity of sport, we risk losing the values it offers

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jennifer Walinga, Professor, Communication and Culture, Royal Roads University

In the sports documentary miniseries The Last Dance, Michael Jordan describes how, as a young rookie, he was confronted with an invitation to take part in illicit activities with teammates, including drugs and gambling.

He “did not go through that door,” realizing “he was in the NBA to get better.” Nowadays that kind of moral compass feels increasingly rare.

The recent gambling and fraud scandal rocking the NBA, for example, illustrates how, when sport leaders compromise on sport values — respect, excellence, safety and fairness — they compromise the value of sport to individuals and society as a whole.

The purpose of sport is individual and community development. The word “compete” is derived from the Latin competere which means to strive (for excellence) together.

Money changes the game

Adding money to sport requires a high level of regulation to prevent the associated pitfalls of corruption, fraud, power imbalances and excess.

Allowing gambling in sport places stress on sport governance, but also erodes cultural integrity. Betting communicates a tolerance for what has been considered criminal in the past and corrupting in the present.

When a referee tolerates cheating behaviour on the field, they soon lose control of the game, and the game soon loses its value.

Canadian researchers have repeatedly shown the value of sport in fostering individual and community development. From positive youth development to significant social impact and social inclusion of people with disabilities, research shows the positive role sport can have through inspiration, health, confidence, belonging and connection.

The Power of Sport: The True Sport Report 2022, a research series by the Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport that provides evidence for a values-based approach to sport, consistently finds that “the sport Canadians want” includes safety, integrity and community.

What women’s sport teaches us

A recent report from Women and Sport Canada shows the sport Canadians want is equitable, inspiring and community-oriented. Women’s sport in Canada, for example, has doubled in value over two years to $400 million and is expected to reach $500 million within a year.

Sport organizations such as Speed Skating Canada, Rugby Canada and the Toronto Blue Jays are modelling positive sport values and the result is a growing fan base and participation, record ticket sales and exceptional performances.

In their studies of Speed Skating Canada and Rowing Canada, former professional athletes and organizational psychologists Katrina Monton and Jennifer Walinga found that cultural integrity — living the values of respect, safety and excellence — has created a foundation for optimal performance. Indeed, the Canadian Speed Skaters enjoyed a dominant performance at the recent World Cup.

Rugby Canada leadership stood by the women’s team through two cases of coach abuse to see the women earn Olympic and World Cup silver medals.

In studying rugby and other sports, our research team has found cultural integrity to be essential to a team’s resilience and success.

The Blue Jays have also confirmed it: the Canadian public wants a sport that upholds friendship, respect and excellence on the diamond. Fans are enthusiastically celebrating the expressed and enacted love the players have for one another, the game and the country.

Fair play and the public’s trust

The recent gambling scandals in the NBA and the MLB are a product of ill-governed sport. Insider betting and games rigging involving players, coaches and organized crime rings are the fallout of legalized sports betting.

When sport leaders place winning or money at the centre of sport, a “win at all costs” mentality prevails, rationalizing and indirectly promoting behaviours like cheating, inequity and corruption — and the costs are well-documented.

Compromising on sport values creates cultural fractures, contradictions and incongruities across sport, which then undermine public trust and the participation that comes with it.

The Hockey Canada sexual assault settlement scandal, which involved the board using registration fees to settle the claims, is another example of values undermined under the guise of protecting players or the sport. Despite their acquittals, a group of junior hockey players compromised human dignity.

This type of behaviour stems from a cultural belief system that values violence — permitted and promoted in hockey — and leads to compromise across the hockey environment, including fan violence, referee abuse, hazing, bullying, misogyny and toxic masculinity.

These sport scandals are examples of how rationalizing illicit behaviours for the sake of sport — for example, gambling that increases the fan base and ticket sales, which fund sport — leads to value compromises across the sport environment.

UK Sport has relied on $1.5 billion in lottery funding since 1997. Most Canadian provinces rely on gaming grants to fund community sport — arguably a slippery slope.

Gaming, sponsorship and “targeted” performance-based funding models like UK Sport and Canada’s Own the Podium privilege money over ethics and safety, and communicate to athletes, coaches and fans that compromising values is acceptable. Yet, it can be argued, these models enhance funding and bring success. The question becomes: where do we draw the line?

When referees compromise on fair play or lose sight of their role, the game unravels — and so can sport in general unravel without proper governance, accountability, transparency and independence. When the rules no longer seem to apply, athletes believe they are free to push boundaries or take their own form of recourse.

The Edmonton Oilers/St.Louis Blues NHL hockey game in April 2025, when referees were accused of making several questionable calls, is a good example. The doping track-and-field scandals in the 1980s were yet another. When winning becomes the priority, other values fall by the wayside.

Rebuilding sport from the inside out

Sport must be governed by the same principles that define it at its best: excellence, respect, safety, community, accountability, independence, transparency, accessibility and fairness.

Sport based on Olympic and Paralympic values brings tremendous value to society.

Compromising on sport’s values and integrity only serves to squander its local, national and global power. Sport, when done right, unites the world.

Jennifer Walinga receives funding from SSHRC, WorkSafeBC and Royal Roads University

– ref. When we gamble with the integrity of sport, we risk losing the values it offers – https://theconversation.com/when-we-gamble-with-the-integrity-of-sport-we-risk-losing-the-values-it-offers-268731

November 16, 2025

Should Canadian politicians be allowed to block their constituents on social media?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Victoria (Vicky) McArthur, Associate Professor, School of Journalism and Communication, Carleton University

Canadian politicians have increasingly taken to social media to campaign as well as communicate with constituents, sharing updates on policies, local events, emergencies or government initiatives.

But stories have emerged of constituents being blocked by their representatives. Should Canadian politicians be free to block their own constituents?

Some politicians claim the blocking is to combat increased online harassment, while constituents have claimed that simply being critical of policies or initiatives is enough to get them blocked.

Some recent cases in Canada include federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault being asked to unblock Ezra Levant on X in 2023, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith blocking constituents on X in 2023 and Montréal Mayor Valérie Plante blocking comments on X and Instagram in 2024. In 2018, Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson was sued by three local Ottawa activists after blocking them on X.

Research has indicated that politicians in Canada are subject to uncivil messages on their social media accounts and increasing threats and hate are directed to candidates online. Furthermore, social media has been attributed to rising political polarization and the spread of disinformation. The RCMP is currently investigating online threats made to MP Chris d’Entremont after he crossed the floor to join the federal Liberals.

Constituent rights

AI bots on social media are influencing political discourse online in Canada; one researcher has warned these bots “amplify specific narratives, influence public opinion, and reinforce ideological divides.”

But where do Canadian politicians draw the line, and does blocking constituents violate the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, specifically regarding the rights of citizens to access government information?

The Charter recognizes a derivative right to access government information when it’s essential for meaningful expression about government operations. This is why a court ordered Guilbeault to unblock Levant, founder of Rebel News, two years ago. However, this wasn’t an official ruling, but rather a settlement.

Within Ontario, the Office of the Integrity Commissioner has provided guidance on the use of social media accounts by provincial members of parliament (MPPs). The policy states that MPPs may have social media accounts in their own names, and provides advice on how they are used, but this advice mostly covers polices about partisan content or campaign rules.

The Canadian Civil Liberties Association notes that there is, “a special incentive for politicians to make sure that the online record casts them in the best possible light, even if that means silencing critical or otherwise inconvenient voices.”

Social media platforms generally do not effectively or consistently intervene when it comes to targeted harassment of Canadian politicians. For Canadian politicians who maintain active, public-facing social media accounts, this leaves managing online abuse to the candidates and their staff.

What about constituents who are simply unhappy with their elected officials?

In an era where Canadian politicians increasingly use social media to communicate policy and promote transparency, shouldn’t citizens be able to post critical comments in those same spaces? If these platforms serve as modern public forums, where exactly should democratic debate take place if not there?

Silenced by elected officials?

The issue presently lacks legal precedence in Canada. In the case of Levant/Guilbeault, the decision ordering the former environment minister to unblock Levant appeared to hinge on the nature of Guilbeault’s X account: whether it was a personal account or whether he was using it in an official capacity to communicate updates on his work in Parliament.

In the case of Watson in Ottawa, the three blocked plaintiffs argued the mayor had “infringed their constitutional right to freedom of expression by blocking them from his official Twitter account.” They further argued that his Twitter feed was “a public account used in the course of his duties as mayor” — a point he later conceded in unblocking them and ending the legal battle.

As Canadian politics continues to become integrated with social media, Canada still has no clear legal framework governing when or if politicians can or should block constituents online. The issue sits at the crossroads of digital safety, public accountability and freedom of expression.

Until clearer guidelines emerge, the question remains: how can politicians in Canada safely and effectively use social media to engage with constituents? And how can constituents confidently engage in critique via those same channels without fear of being silenced by their elected officials?

Victoria (Vicky) McArthur receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, and the Canadian Foundation for Innovation.

– ref. Should Canadian politicians be allowed to block their constituents on social media? – https://theconversation.com/should-canadian-politicians-be-allowed-to-block-their-constituents-on-social-media-269165

November 16, 2025

‘Radioactive patriarchy’ documentary: Women examine the impact of Soviet nuclear testing

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Rebecca H. Hogue, Assistant Professor, Department of English, University of Toronto

Following recent comments on nuclear testing by United States President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, it’s more important than ever to remember that nuclear detonations — whether in war or apparent peace time — have long-lasting impacts.

Over a 40-year period, up to 1989, the Soviet Union detonated 456 nuclear weapons in present-day Kazakhstan (or Qazaqstan, in the decolonized spelling).

During the time of the detonations, approximately 1.5 million people lived near the sites, despite Soviet claims that the area was uninhabited.

In the ensuing decades, diagnoses of cancers, congenital anomalies and thyroid disease affected the surrounding communities at an alarming rate, particularly for women.

A new independent documentary, JARA Radioactive Patriarchy: Women of Qazaqstan, examines the impacts of nuclear weapons in Qazaqstan. Jara means “wound” in the Qazaq language.

The film is directed by Aigerim Seitenova, a nuclear disarmament activist with a post-graduate degree in international human rights law who co-founded the Qazaq Nuclear Frontline Coalition. Seitenova grew up in Semey (formerly called Semipalatinsk), Qazaqstan.

Close to Semey is the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, also known as The Polygon, in Qazaqstan’s northeastern region. It’s an area slightly smaller than the size of Belgium — approximately 18,000 square kilometres — in the former Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic.

A crater in the ground filled with a murky substance and surrounded by barren land. — Craters and boreholes dot the former Soviet Union nuclear test site Semipalatinsk in what is today Kazakhstan.
(The Official CTBTO Photostream/Flickr), CC BY

Nuclear Truth Project

Seitenova introduced her film in March 2025 at the United Nations headquarters in New York, hosted by the Nuclear Truth Project. The documentary premiere was a side event at the Third Meeting of States Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

‘What is the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons?’ United Nations video.

As a literary and cultural historian who examines narratives of the nuclear age, I attended the standing-room-only event alongside many delegates from civil society organizations.

Nuclear disarmament activist

Seitenova, who wrote, directed and produced JARA Radioactive Patriarchy on location in Semey, aims to bring women’s nuclear stories to Qazaqstan and international audiences.

The 30-minute documentary features intimate interviews with five Qazaq women. The film shares the women’s fears, grief and the ways they have learned to cope, as well as reflections from Seitenova filmed at the ground-zero site.

For Seitenova, it was essential that the film be in Qazaq language.

“Qazaq language, like Qazaq bodies,” she said in an interview after the premiere, “were considered ‘other’ or not valuable.” Seitenova acknowledged it was also important to show a Qazaq-language film at the UN, as Qazaq is not an official UN language like Russian.

Women consensually share experiences

One of Seitenova’s directorial choices was not just what or who would be seen, but specifically what would not be seen in her film.

“I’m really against sensationalism,” said Seitenova. “If you Google ‘Semipalatinsk’ you will see all of these terrible images of children and fetuses.”

Seitenova accordingly does not show any of these images in her film, and instead focuses on women consensually sharing their experiences.

Seitenova explained how narratives regarding the health effects in Semey are often disparaged. When others learn she is from Semey, Seitenova shared, some will make insensitive jokes like “are you luminescent at night?” — making nuclear impact into spectacle, instead of taking it as a serious health issue.

These experiences have propelled her to take back the narrative of her community by correcting misconceptions or the minimization of harms. Instead, she brings attention to the larger structural issues.

“Everything was done by me because I did not want to invite someone who would not take care of the stories of these women,” said Seitenova.

Likewise, Seitenova only interviewed participants who had already made decisions to speak out about nuclear weapons. She did this so as not to risk retraumatizing someone by asking them to discuss their illnesses, especially for the first time on camera.

Global legacy of anti-nuclear art, advocacy

Seitenova also wanted to show a genealogy of women speaking out about nuclear issues in Qazaqstan, contributing to a global legacy of anti-nuclear art and advocacy.

The film features three generations of women, including Seitenova’s great aunt, Zura Rustemova, who was 12 at the time of the first detonations.

As part of this genealogy of nuclear resistance, the film includes footage of a speech from the Qazaq singer Roza Baglanova (1922-2011), who rose to prominence singing songs of hope during the Second World War.

Effects felt into today

JARA Radioactive Patriarchy shows how the impacts of nuclear weapons are felt intergenerationally into the present.

“Many women lost their ability to experience the happiness of motherhood,” interviewee Maira Abenova says in the film. Abenova co-founded an advocacy group representing survivors of the detonations, Committee Polygon 21.

Other interviewees shared how often men left their wives and children who were affected by nuclear weapons to begin a new family with someone else.

Seitenova looks at the roles of women and mothers not just as protectors, but also as those who have launched formidable advocacy.

The film highlights the towering monument in Semey, “Stronger than Death,” dedicated to those affected by nuclear weapons.

A tall sculpture showing a mushroom cloud shape and a woman's silhouette underneath shielding a child — ‘Stronger Than Death’ monument in Semey, Kazakhstan.
(Wikidata), CC BY

The Semey monument depicts a mother using her whole body to protect her child from a mushroom cloud. Just like the monument, Seitenova and the women in her documentary use the film to show how women have been doing this advocacy work in the private and public spheres, with their bodies and with their words.

“I want to show them as being leaders in the community, as changing the game,” Seitenova said.

While the film brings a much-needed attention to the gendered impact of nuclear weapons in Qazaqstan, she makes clear that this is, unfortunately, not an issue unique to her homeland or just to women.

“The next time you think about expanding the nuclear sector in any country” Seitenova said, “you can think about how it impacts people of all genders.”

Rebecca H. Hogue does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Radioactive patriarchy’ documentary: Women examine the impact of Soviet nuclear testing – https://theconversation.com/radioactive-patriarchy-documentary-women-examine-the-impact-of-soviet-nuclear-testing-256775

November 16, 2025

Pourquoi davantage de dette européenne favorisera la croissance et la consolidation des finances publiques des pays de l’UE

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Christakis Georgiou, Spécialiste de l’économie politique de la construction européenne, Université Sorbonne Nouvelle, Paris 3

L’instabilité politique aux États-Unis accroît la demande d’une alternative aux actifs libellés en dollar. L’euro en tête ? CarlosAmarillo/Shutterstock

L’émission de dette par l’Union européenne, lancée par le plan de relance européen du 27 mai 2020 (Next Generation EU), peut profiter à ses États membres. Car qui dit dette, dit obligation, mais aussi actif financier. Un actif sûr européen demandé par les investisseurs du monde entier, comme alternative aux bons du Trésor fédéral états-unien.

Alors que l’impératif de réduction du déficit budgétaire continue d’alimenter la crise politique en France et que les négociations s’engagent sur le prochain cadre financier pluriannuel (CFP) de l’Union européenne (UE), cette dernière continue de monter en puissance en tant qu’émetteur de dette obligataire.

Cet essor est du au plan de relance européen proposé par la Commission européenne le 27 mai 2020, à savoir Next Generation EU (NGEU). Celui-ci semble avoir ouvert la voie vers une capacité d’emprunt européenne permanente. Durant l’été 2025, l’UE met au point le programme SAFE (Security Action for Europe) qui prévoit 150 milliards d’euros de dette, tandis que la Commission européenne propose la création d’un instrument de gestion de crise. Celui-ci autoriserait l’exécutif européen à lever jusqu’à 400 milliards d’euros le cas échéant.

Dans cet article, j’explique pourquoi l’émission pérenne et accrue de dette européenne contribuera à la consolidation des finances publiques des États membres. Raison de plus pour l’UE d’accélérer dans cette direction.

Ce que veulent les investisseurs

Le point de départ de ce raisonnement est simple : que demandent les investisseurs en la matière ?

En 1999, la création de l’Union économique et monétaire (UEM) crée le potentiel de défauts souverains en Europe, c’est-à-dire le risque financier qu’un État membre ne rembourse pas ses dettes. L’UEM a soustrait la création monétaire au contrôle des États membres pour la confier à la Banque centrale européenne. Sans ce contrôle, les États de l’Union européenne perdent la certitude de pouvoir honorer leurs obligations souveraines car ils renoncent à la possibilité d’avoir recours à la création monétaire pour se financer.

Pour un ensemble de raisons, ce risque financier potentiel déstabilise le fonctionnement des marchés des capitaux, car il élimine le statut d’actif sûr dont jouissaient les titres de dette publique jusque-là.

C’est la raison pour laquelle les investisseurs financiers ont très tôt compris que l’Union économique et monétaire devrait être complétée par la création d’un actif sûr européen, soit d’une part en recourant à l’émission et la responsabilité conjointes des États de l’UE, soit d’autre part à l’émission de titres de dette par la Commission européenne.

Une alternative aux actifs libellés en dollar

L’offre de ce nouvel actif financier européen devrait être volumineuse, fréquente et pérenne de manière à s’ériger en actif financier de référence et valeur refuge dans le marché financier européen. Pour la quasi-totalité des investisseurs, le modèle à reproduire est celui du marché états-unien de la dette publique, dont le pivot est le bon du Trésor fédéral.

À cela s’ajoute une demande croissante de la part des investisseurs extraeuropéens pour une alternative aux actifs libellés en dollar. Cette tendance est apparue depuis une dizaine d’années avec l’arsenalisation croissante du dollar par l’administration fédérale états-unienne. Le terme « arsenalisation du dollar » renvoie à un ensemble de pratiques à visée géopolitique, comme la menace d’interdire l’accès aux marchés financiers américains ou des poursuites judiciaires pour non-respect de sanctions (contre l’Iran, par exemple) prononcées par l’administration. Depuis un an, l’instabilité politique aux États-Unis, notamment la menace de réduire l’indépendance de la Réserve fédérale, a accru cette demande de diversification. L’euro est bien placé pour offrir une alternative, mais à condition de pouvoir offrir un actif aussi sûr et liquide que le bon du Trésor fédéral.

Étant donné que l’évolution de l’UE en émetteur souverain est une demande forte des investisseurs, par quels mécanismes cela pourrait-il contribuer à la consolidation des finances publiques des États membres ?

Premier canal : l’offre accrue d’actifs sûrs rassurera les investisseurs

Le premier mécanisme concerne l’effet général sur l’évaluation des risques de crédit par les investisseurs. L’augmentation nette de l’offre d’actifs sûrs aura un effet général rassurant et par conséquent réduira les primes de risque, mais aussi les spreads (différence de taux d’intérêt d’une obligation avec celui d’une obligation de référence de même durée) entre États de l’UE.

Un exemple de cette dynamique est l’expérience de l’automne 2020, avant et après l’annonce de l’accord sur le plan de relance européen. Tant que cet accord éludait les dirigeants européens, la fébrilité était palpable sur les marchés et les spreads. Celui de l’Italie en particulier avait tendance à s’écarter. L’annonce de l’accord a immédiatement inversé la dynamique. La mise en œuvre du programme fait qu’aujourd’hui les États membres du sud de l’UE – Italie, Espagne, Portugal – empruntent à des conditions similaires à celles de la France.

Le plan de relance européen de 2020 (baptisé « Next Generation EU »), proposé par la Commission européenne le 27 mai 2020, vise à pallier les conséquences économiques et sociales de la pandémie de Covid-19. Son montant est fixé à 750 milliards d’euros.
PPPhotos/Shutterstock

Deuxième canal : attraction accrue de capitaux extraeuropéens

Le deuxième mécanisme répond à la demande de diversification des investisseurs extraeuropéens. En leur proposant une alternative crédible aux actifs en dollar, l’émission accrue de dette européenne attirera un surcroît de flux extraeuropéens vers l’Europe. Cela augmentera l’offre de crédit en Europe, ce qui diminuera les taux d’intérêt de façon générale et facilitera le financement de l’économie européenne.

Troisième canal : emprunter pour investir agira sur le dénominateur

Le troisième mécanisme dépend de l’utilisation des ressources collectées par l’émission de dette. Si, comme avec le plan de relance européen Next Generation EU, ces ressources sont affectées à l’investissement public, notamment en infrastructures, cela améliorera la croissance potentielle.

L’accélération de la croissance générera un surplus de recettes fiscales, tout en agissant sur le dénominateur (à savoir le PIB, auquel on rapporte le stock de dette publique pour obtenir le ratio qui sert le plus souvent de référence dans les débats sur la soutenabilité des dettes). Les effets bénéfiques attendus sont aujourd’hui visibles dans les principaux États membres bénéficiaires de ce plan de relance, à savoir l’Italie et l’Espagne.

L’amélioration des perspectives de croissance aura aussi un effet spécifiquement financier. Pourquoi ? Car elle contribuera à retenir davantage de capitaux européens qui aujourd’hui s’exportent aux États-Unis pour chercher des rendements plus élevés dans les start-ups du pays de l’Oncle Sam. En d’autres termes, la résorption de l’écart de croissance entre États-Unis et Europe offrira relativement plus d’opportunités de placement en Europe même à l’épargne européenne.

Quatrième canal : favoriser la constitution de l’union du marché des capitaux

Un actif sûr européen est la pièce maîtresse pour enfin aboutir à l’union des marchés des capitaux. L’offre d’un actif financier de référence, ou benchmark asset, contribuera à uniformiser les conditions financières dans les États de l’UE, favorisera la diversification et la dénationalisation des expositions au risque et fournira du collatéral en grande quantité pouvant servir à garantir les transactions transfrontières au sein de l’UE.

Cette dernière fonction des titres de dette publique (servir de collatéral dans les transactions financières) est capitale pour le fonctionnement du système financier contemporain. Lorsque les banques et autres firmes financières ont besoin de liquidités, elles se tournent vers d’autres firmes financières et leur en empruntent en garantissant la transaction par des titres de dette publique.

L’utilisation de ces titres à cette fin découle de leur statut d’actif sûr. C’est la raison pour laquelle un actif sûr européen sous forme de titres émis par la Commission européenne favorisera les transactions transfrontières : une banque portugaise pourra beaucoup plus facilement emprunter des liquidités à un assureur allemand si la transaction est garantie par des titres européens plutôt que par des titres portugais par exemple.

L’union des marchés des capitaux, c’est-à-dire l’élimination du biais national dans la composition des portefeuilles d’actifs, améliorera l’allocation globale du capital en permettant de mieux aligner épargne et investissements à travers le marché européen. Cela était précisément l’un des effets principaux escomptés lors de la création de l’Union économique et monétaire (UEM).

Durant la première décennie de son existence, cette intégration financière a eu lieu, bien que cela servît à financer des bulles de crédit dans la périphérie qui alimentèrent la crise de l’Union économique et monétaire en 2009-2012. Les flux accrus de capitaux vers les États membres du sud de l’Europe ont diminué drastiquement le coût de financement des entreprises et des autorités publiques mais ont principalement été canalisés vers des investissements improductifs et spéculatifs comme la bulle immobilière en Espagne. Or, intégration financière et bulles de crédit ne sont pas synonymes : si les conditions sont mises en place pour canaliser le surcroît de flux de capitaux transfrontières vers les investissements productifs, la hausse de la croissance sera durable.

Christakis Georgiou ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Pourquoi davantage de dette européenne favorisera la croissance et la consolidation des finances publiques des pays de l’UE – https://theconversation.com/pourquoi-davantage-de-dette-europeenne-favorisera-la-croissance-et-la-consolidation-des-finances-publiques-des-pays-de-lue-267165

November 16, 2025

Comment prévenir et répondre au racisme en milieu scolaire

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Isabelle Hidair-Krivsky, Anthropologue, maître de conférences habilitée à diriger des recherches, Université de Guyane

Pour lutter contre le racisme, l’école française s’appuie principalement sur l’éducation civique et la prévention. Que nous dit la recherche de cette approche ? Sur le terrain, quels sont les moyens les plus efficaces pour endiguer la violence et les discriminations ?

En octobre 2025, un collège de Guyane s’est retrouvé au cœur d’une polémique à la suite de propos racistes entre élèves survenus au mois de juin précédent. L’incident a débuté lorsqu’un élève traité de « sale Blanc » a répliqué : « Les Noirs devraient retourner dans les champs de coton. » Tous les élèves impliqués ont été sanctionnés par une lettre de réflexion.

L’affaire a pris une tout autre ampleur lorsque les parents du garçon blanc, policiers, ont contesté la punition, estimant que leur fils était victime. Ils ont déposé plainte contre la principale du collège, qui a été entendue par la gendarmerie. Cette attitude des parents a mis sous les feux de l’actualité les propos racistes tenus quatre mois auparavant et dont le grand public n’avait jusqu’alors pas eu connaissance, ce qui a déclenché une vague de protestations. La médiatisation a mobilisé des syndicats, des élus et des associations, qui ont dénoncé un abus de pouvoir des forces de l’ordre.

Cet incident nous invite à interroger les moyens à disposition des enseignants pour réagir dans ce type de situation. Comment prévenir et répondre au racisme en milieu scolaire ? Que nous dit la recherche de l’efficacité des mesures en place ?

L’héritage historique et la faillite pédagogique

La Guyane a été une colonie esclavagiste jusqu’en 1848. L’esclavage y a laissé des séquelles profondes dans la structuration de la société. Les autochtones colonisés et les descendants d’esclaves (affranchis ou marrons) y subissent encore les stigmates de cette histoire.

Notre recherche menée en 2010 en Guyane a déjà souligné les difficultés à lutter contre le racisme en milieu scolaire. En effet, historiquement, les institutions scolaires, et une partie des sciences sociales, ont longtemps promu l’idée que l’école, en tant qu’espace fondé sur les principes universalistes et égalitaires, était naturellement « préservée du racisme et de la discrimination ». Cette représentation du mythe républicain a conduit à un domaine longtemps sous-examiné par la recherche.

Aujourd’hui, la réponse institutionnelle française s’articule autour de l’éducation civique et de la prévention. L’article L311-4 du Code de l’éducation insiste sur l’acquisition du « respect de la personne, de ses origines et de ses différences » au travers de l’enseignement moral et civique (EMC). Les dispositifs, souvent ponctuels et facultatifs, reposent sur des événements comme la « semaine d’éducation et d’actions contre le racisme et l’antisémitisme » ou des partenariats portés par des enseignants volontaires, avec le défenseur des droits et le plan national de lutte de la Délégation interministérielle à la lutte contre le racisme, l’antisémitisme et la haine anti-LGBT (Dilcrah) qui vise à « quantifier, prévenir, former, mais aussi [à] sanctionner » les actes de haine et leurs auteurs.

Pour certains chercheurs, cet antiracisme institutionnel vise surtout à produire l’adhésion aux « valeurs de la République » plutôt qu’à fournir aux personnes subissant le racisme les outils pour se défendre et déconstruire les systèmes d’oppression. On préfère parler des valeurs plutôt que de nommer la race et les systèmes.

Pourtant, la « charge raciale » est aussi lourde dans les Outre-mer que dans l’Hexagone.

« Que ce soit au travail, dans les relations intimes ou dans le débat public, les personnes non blanches doivent trouver des issues pour désamorcer certaines situations tout en endurant des assignations raciales et des clichés. »

Des discours qui masquent la reproduction des inégalités

L’institution doit traiter les propos racistes non comme des épiphénomènes, mais comme des atteintes au cadre de vie. L’idée que la place des Noirs est « dans des champs de coton » relève de la hiérarchisation raciale. Des parents blancs se sentent autorisés à abuser de leur pouvoir. C’est ce white privilege qui concentre des avantages sociaux, institutionnels et symboliques – dont les personnes racisées « blanches » bénéficient dans des sociétés où la blanchité est normée – souvent invisibles pour celles qui en bénéficient.

La blanchité est analysée comme forme de norme et de pouvoir. Ainsi, les discours de « méconnaissance » ou de « color-blindness » masquent la reproduction des inégalités, ce qui maintient le privilège blanc sans recours à un racisme explicitement hostile.

L’attention portée aux agressions spectaculaires occulte les micro-agressions quotidiennes subies par les personnes racisées. Celles-ci se manifestent à travers des remarques sur l’intelligence, l’ardeur au travail, la texture de la chevelure des personnes racisées, ou lorsque des Blancs affirment « ne pas être racistes parce qu’ils ont vécu en Outre-mer ou en Afrique » (l’amalgame est fréquent), ou bien qu’ils ont un conjoint non blanc ou un enfant métis, ou encore lorsqu’ils minimisent le racisme, réduit à un « défaut humain » ou à l’attitude d’une minorité « mal éduquée ».

S’arroger la voix des personnes racisées en parlant à leur place est un privilège. Cela contribue à leur oppression, notamment lorsque ceux qui jouissent de cette faveur refusent de remettre en question leurs propres avantages.

Les travaux récents en sociologie démontrent que le racisme scolaire est profondément ancré et souvent lié à des facteurs systémiques. Les enquêtes mettent en évidence que l’expérience du racisme est souvent renforcée par le milieu social. Ces discriminations, fondées sur les préjugés et les stéréotypes, se traduisent par des « coûts de la racisation » pour les élèves concernés, qui développent des stratégies de résistance ou d’adaptation.

L’apport de la recherche

Un enjeu majeur des recherches actuelles concerne l’efficacité des méthodes pédagogiques.

Les formations à la lutte contre les préjugés et la promotion du « vivre-ensemble » sont largement diffusées via les rectorats, mais leur efficacité mesurée reste limitée si elles ne s’inscrivent pas dans la durée. De plus, le rapport de la commission nationale consultative des droits de l’homme CNCDH souligne un manque de pilotage local, une hétérogénéité de la mise en œuvre, une insuffisance de suivi statistique des incidents à caractère raciste dans les établissements, peu d’évaluations quantitatives des programmes existants et un manque de coordination entre chercheurs, institutions et terrain scolaire.

De même, des études récentes montrent des risques de reproduction des biais raciaux si les dispositifs ne sont pas équitablement appliqués.

Les chercheurs analysent que l’approche dominante – qui tend à éviter de nommer la « race » et la « racialisation » par attachement à l’idéal universaliste – conduit à traiter le racisme comme un simple manquement moral, masquant ses dimensions systémiques.

Le défi actuel est de passer d’un antiracisme moralisateur (une lettre de réflexion) à une pédagogie antiraciste critique.

Inspirée de travaux étrangers, cette pédagogie propose de nommer la race et la racisation comme concepts sociaux (et non biologiques) pour analyser les systèmes de domination. D’intégrer l’antiracisme au curriculum entier, et pas juste à l’enseignement moral et civique. De développer l’« empowerment » des élèves et des parents des groupes minorisés, en leur donnant une voix et une capacité d’agir et d’associer l’histoire (comme l’esclavage) à une approche systémique pour déconstruire les a priori racistes.

Ces travaux témoignent d’une évolution de la recherche, qui passe de la reconnaissance du problème à la discussion des outils et des cadres théoriques les plus efficaces pour une lutte antiraciste en profondeur. Les études internationales montrent des résultats prometteurs. Elles visent la réparation plutôt que la punition, par l’organisation de conversations et de conférences restauratives, par la diminution des sanctions disciplinaires en vue d’augmenter la performance académique et de réduire les inégalités raciales, culturelles et économiques.

Ainsi, la lutte contre le racisme en milieu scolaire ne peut se limiter à des interventions ponctuelles ou moralisatrices. Elle requiert une approche systémique articulant justice, éducation, accompagnement psychologique et gouvernance institutionnelle, qui peut réduire durablement les discriminations.

Isabelle Hidair-Krivsky ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Comment prévenir et répondre au racisme en milieu scolaire – https://theconversation.com/comment-prevenir-et-repondre-au-racisme-en-milieu-scolaire-268863

November 16, 2025

Africa has a debt crisis: momentum from G20 in South Africa can help find solutions

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Danny Bradlow, Professor/Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancement of Scholarship, University of Pretoria

The end of South Africa’s G20 presidency does not mean the end of its ability or responsibility to promote the issues it prioritised during 2025. It can still advocate for action on some of these issues through its further participation in the G20 and in other international and regional forums.

In this article, I argue that going forward South Africa should prioritise the financial challenges confronting Africa that it championed in 2025.

South Africa established four overarching priorities for its G20 presidency. Two of them dealt with finance. One sought to “ensure debt sustainability for low-income countries”. The other was to mobilise finance for a just energy transition.

The importance of debt, development finance and climate to Africa’s future is clear. Over half of African countries are either in debt distress or at risk of being in distress. More than half of Africa’s population live in countries that are spending more on servicing their debt than on health and/or education.

In addition, 17 African countries experienced net debt outflows in 2023. This means that they were using more foreign exchange to pay their external creditors than they received in new debts that could be used to finance their development. The continent is also experiencing extreme weather events that are adversely affecting food security and human wellbeing.

In short, African countries are caught in a vicious cycle. The impacts of climate and their struggle to meet their debt obligations are interacting in ways that undermine their ability to meet their sustainable development goals.

South Africa’s priorities

South Africa’s priorities for its G20 presidency were ambitious. Success required meaningful action at three levels:

Awareness. South Africa would need to bring the international community to a better understanding of the nature of the debt and development finance challenges confronting African countries and of the consequences of failing to address them.

Process. South Africa would need to convince the G20 to correct the shortcomings in the Common Framework it had devised to deal with low-income countries seeking debt relief.

The examples of Zambia and Ghana showed that the Common Framework was cumbersome, slow and unduly favourable to creditors. For example the framework requires the debtor to engage separately with each group of its creditors in a sequential process. This means that it should not negotiate with its commercial creditors until it has successfully negotiated with its official creditors.

Commercial creditors can’t give debt relief until the official creditors are satisfied with their deal and are confident that the commercial creditors will not receive more favourable treatment from the debtor than they have received.

Another complication is the IMF’s multiple roles in debt restructurings as an advisor to and a creditor of the debtor countries. In addition, it does the debt sustainability analysis that determines the amount of debt relief that all other creditors are expected to provide to the debtor country in order for it to regain debt sustainability. The more optimistic its assessment, the smaller the contributions the various creditors, including the IMF, are expected to provide. These contributions can either be in the form of new funding or new debt terms.

Substance. The current debt restructuring process treats debt as a technical financial and legal problem rather than as the complex multifaceted problem that is experienced by debtor countries. The former perspective limits the scope of debtor-creditor negotiations to the terms of the financial contracts.

The negotiations focus on the adjustments that must be made to these terms because the debtor cannot comply with its originally accepted obligations. They treat as largely outside the scope of the discussions the adverse impact the debt situation has on the sovereign debtor’s other legal obligations and on the social, political, environmental and cultural situation in the debtor country.

This approach in effect leaves the debtor to deal with these other issues on its own. This artificial distinction between the debtors’ other legal obligations and those it owes to its creditors makes it very difficult for the debtor to escape the vicious debt, development and climate cycle in which it is trapped. It forces it to choose between its commitments to its creditors and its development obligations.

Over the course of 2025, South Africa has been very effective in raising awareness of the African debt crisis and its dire impact on African countries. South Africa persuaded the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors to issue a declaration on debt sustainability at the end of their October meeting.

The declaration is the G20’s eloquent acknowledgement of the problem and of the need for more discussion of how these debt issues are managed by both debtors and creditors. Unfortunately, it does not contain any firm G20 commitments on what it will do to remedy the situation.

There has not been substantial progress at the process and substance levels. This is unlikely to change in the remaining weeks of South Africa’s G20 presidency.

But there are three actions that South Africa can take beyond the end of its term to ensure that the African debt crisis continues receiving attention.

Three actions

First, it should ask a group like the African Expert Panel that it established to advise the president to prepare a technical report that identifies and analyses all the barriers to Africa accessing affordable, sustainable and predictable flows of external development finance.

This report should be submitted to the South African president in the first half of 2026. Next year, South Africa will still be a member of the G20 Troika, which consists of the current, immediate past and the incoming G20 presidents. Consequently, next year, it will still be able to table the report at the G20. South Africa can also use the report to promote action in other appropriate regional and global forums.

Second, South Africa and the African Union should create an African Borrower’s Club that is independent of the G20. This club should be a forum in which African sovereign debtors can share information and lessons learned about negotiating sovereign debt transactions and about responsible debt management. When appropriate, the club can work with regional African financial institutions.

The club, working with regional organisations like the African Legal Support Facility, can also sponsor workshops in which interested African sovereign debtors can share information and more critically assess their financing options. They can also work to improve their bargaining capacity in sovereign debt transactions.

The African Borrower’s Club should also be mandated to establish an African Sovereign Debt Roundtable that is modelled on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable. This entity should be an informal forum, based on the Chatham House Rule in which the various categories of stakeholders in African debt can meet to discuss the design of a sovereign debt restructuring process that is effective, efficient and fair and that adopts an holistic approach to a sovereign debt crisis.

Third, South Africa should capitalise on the fact that the impacts of climate, inequality, unemployment and poverty on Africa’s development prospects are now acknowledged to be macro-critical, and so within the IMF’s macro-economic and financial mandate. South Africa should call for a review of the IMF’s operating principles and practices and its governance arrangements.

This call should note that the multilateral development banks have been the object of G20 review for a number of years and that this has resulted in important enhancements in their capital frameworks and operating practices. On the other hand the IMF has not been subject to a similar review despite the fact that its operations have had to undergo possibility even more extensive revisions.

Danny Bradlow, in addition to his position at the University of Pretoria is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow, Global Development Policy Center, Boston University; Senior G20 Advisor, South African Institute of International Affairs and a Compliance Officer, Social and Environmental Compliance Unit, UNDP.

– ref. Africa has a debt crisis: momentum from G20 in South Africa can help find solutions – https://theconversation.com/africa-has-a-debt-crisis-momentum-from-g20-in-south-africa-can-help-find-solutions-269004

November 16, 2025

US-Nigeria relations: what it means to be a ‘country of particular concern’ and why it matters

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Saheed Babajide Owonikoko, Researcher, Centre for Peace and Security Studies, Modibbo Adama University of Technology

For the second time in five years, Nigeria has been designated a “country of particular concern” by the US government, in both cases by President Donald Trump. The first time was in 2020 but the designation was removed in 2021.

The November 2025 redesignation can be traced to, among other things, a campaign by US congressman Riley Moore, who alleged that there was an “alarming and ongoing persecution of Christians” in Nigeria.

Nigeria refuted this claim. President Bola Tinubu, in a statement, argued that the US characterisation of Nigeria did not reflect the country’s reality or values.

But what does the designation mean for Nigeria? And what should Nigeria’s response be? As a scholar who has studied Nigeria’s insecurity and identity crises, I have some suggestions.

Nigeria must prevent the diplomatic row with the US from progressing further, and act decisively against insecurity for all Nigerians.

To achieve this, the Nigerian government should look beyond military capability. The country needs governance and administrative restructuring that empowers sub-national and local authorities to address local issues. This bottom-up approach will address insecurity better than the current top-down approach.

What ‘country of particular concern’ means

The classification of a country as being of particular concern is outlined in the United States International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA) of 1998. Under section 402 of the act, “country of particular concern” is a designation given to a foreign country whose government has engaged in or tolerated especially severe violations of the religious freedom of its citizens.

By this definition, a country may not be directly involved in violating its citizens’ religious freedom, but culpable for not acting decisively against those who do.

For a country to be classified as such, it is first placed on a special watch list. This allows for an assessment of whether there is a serious violation of religious freedom.

The designation is part of US foreign policy for promoting human rights globally.

Why Nigeria was given this status

Nigeria was designated a country of particular concern because of allegations of “genocide” against Christians there. Since Nigeria’s independence in 1960, identity conflicts have become a common occurrence. But there’s a new dimension with the emergence of terror groups and intensifying farmer-herder disputes.

A study I conducted in early 2025 revealed that between 2010 and 2022, a total of 230 attacks specifically targeted Christians, 82 of which were between 2019 and 2022.

Several other attacks, such as the Runji killing in Kaduna State in April 2023, the Apata and Yelwata massacres in Benue State in March and June 2025, respectively, and the Mangu killings in Plateau State, have also taken place.

This shows that there are targeted attacks against Christians in parts of Nigeria. But they are a fraction of the attacks and killings carried out by non-state armed groups in the country.

As one study argued, Christians make up roughly half of Nigeria’s population, but attacks explicitly directed against them account for about 5% of total reported violent incidents.

Therefore, framing Nigeria’s insecurity in terms of anti-Christian violence alone oversimplifies the broader dynamics of the country’s national insecurity.

How this will affect Nigeria

The International Religious Freedom Act stipulates 15 required sanctions under section 405(a). Section 407 allows the president of the US to waive these sanctions based on national interest or to further the purpose of the act. For this reason, in most cases, the designation is seldom followed by sanctions.

Several countries have been exempted from sanctions even when designated as countries of particular concern. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been repeatedly designated but the US has never sanctioned them.

Even Nigeria’s designation in 2020 was not followed by sanctions. The US continued to provide security assistance, military cooperation and development aid to Nigeria. The US only used the period of designation to call for improved protection of religious communities and accountability for perpetrators.

For the recent designation, however, Trump has threatened to cut aid to Nigeria and take military action against terrorists in Nigeria.

The US, through the US Agency for International Development, provided development assistance worth US$7.89 billion between 2015 and 2024 to support health, education, economic and humanitarian development. But all of that has reduced since the scrapping of the agency and a drop in foreign aid.

US security aid to Nigeria remains significant. It approved sales of sophisticated precision military weapons worth US$346 million to Nigeria and has offered training support for Nigerian soldiers.

The US could end that deal, but that would undermine Nigeria’s ability to address terrorism and general security challenges. It would counter the purpose of the International Religious Freedom Act. Therefore, I believe the US may waive this.

Direct military intervention in Nigeria is becoming a possibility and Trump is most likely going to do it without respect for Nigeria’s sovereignty. He has ordered the US Department of War to draw up plans, and they have come up with options. But I do not see this solving the problem of insecurity in Nigeria. It may instead lead to the dispersal of terrorists, complicating Nigeria’s insecurity. Or terrorists might increase mass kidnappings and hostage-taking for shields.

How Nigeria should respond

Nigeria must prevent diplomatic rows with the US because they are partners in the fight against terrorism. A discussion about how the US can improve Nigeria’s capacity to address its security challenges would be a good step.

Furthermore, Nigeria’s limited capacity to safeguard lives and property points to deeper structural and governance challenges. The country’s security architecture is too centralised and works top-down. This makes it harder for sub-national and local authorities to provide security and address the drivers of violence at the local level.

Nigeria should go beyond improving its military response. To enhance security, it also needs to reform its governance and administrative structures.

Saheed Babajide Owonikoko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. US-Nigeria relations: what it means to be a ‘country of particular concern’ and why it matters – https://theconversation.com/us-nigeria-relations-what-it-means-to-be-a-country-of-particular-concern-and-why-it-matters-269044

November 16, 2025

Guinea-Bissau’s presidential poll has already failed the credibility test

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Jonathan Powell, Visiting assistant professor, University of Kentucky

Guinea-Bissau heads into its November elections against the backdrop of a deepening crisis of electoral legitimacy across Africa. In recent months, a string of elections has reinforced the perception that incumbency, not competition, remains the standard.

In Cameroon, 92-year-old Paul Biya claimed an eighth consecutive term after officially winning 53.7% of a vote widely denounced as fraudulent and met with protests.

In Tanzania, President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the victor with an implausible 98% of ballots cast in her favour following a poll marred by numerous irregularities and followed by protests and a crackdown unprecedented in the country’s history.

And in Côte d’Ivoire, President Alassane Ouattara comfortably secured a fourth term with nearly 90% of the vote, extending his hold on power despite the constitution’s two-term limit.

Across the continent, including west Africa, these outcomes have fuelled public cynicism and highlighted a worrying erosion of democratic norms, as leaders manipulate constitutions, neutralise opponents, and hollow out institutions meant to safeguard accountability.

It is within this climate of regional disillusionment that Bissau-Guineans will head to the polls on 23 November.

The west African country’s upcoming election once offered the potential to demonstrate a growing electoral resilience, a deepening of institutional strength that would help the country break from past legacies of instability. Instead, the process has been repeatedly undermined by President Umar Sissoco Embaló.

As social scientists who have written extensively on political instability in Africa, we believe that such dynamics all but guarantee another entry to the roster of failed elections across the region.

At stake is more than Guinea-Bissau’s democratic credibility. Its unravelling speaks to a wider regional crisis in which incumbents erode legitimacy not by abolishing elections, but by emptying them of real competition.

A legacy of instability

In contrast to long-tenured leaders like Biya or Ouattara, or enduring parties such as Tanzania’s Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), Guinea-Bissau’s voters navigate an electoral system defined by unpredictability and instability, especially during election season.

The country’s modern electoral turbulence can be traced back decades. João Bernardo “Nino” Vieira returned to power in 2005 for a second stint, nearly a quarter-century after first seizing control via a 1980 coup.

His rule was marred by conflict, including an 11-month civil war triggered by a rebellion from former army chief of staff Ansumane Mané. Vieira’s long first tenure ended in a second coup in May 1999, and his second term was cut short in 2009 when he was murdered by members of the armed forces.

Malam Bacai Sanhá emerged as Vieira’s elected successor but passed away in January 2012, leaving Raimundo Pereira as interim president. Within months, Pereira would be removed in yet another military coup.

The 2012 upheaval halted a runoff election between Carlos Domingos Gomes Júnior and Kumba Ialá.

The 2014 election brought José Mário Vaz to the presidency, defeating a candidate with close ties to the military. When Vaz completed his term in 2020, he became Guinea-Bissau’s first president to finish a constitutionally defined tenure.

Undermining the process

Questions arose even before Vaz’s exit. After Umar Sissoco Embaló was declared the winner over Pereira in the 29 December runoff, Pereira challenged the results. Ignoring the ongoing legal process, Embaló arranged an inauguration ceremony for himself in February 2020.

The African Party for Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) accused Embaló of orchestrating a coup and appointed Cipriano Cassamá as an interim president.

Embaló then ordered the deployment of the military to state institutions, including the National Assembly. Cassamá stepped down on his second day, citing death threats.

The supreme court ultimately declined to rule on the dispute after its chief judge fled the country, also citing death threats. The crisis was effectively resolved by the Economic Community of West African States’ (Ecowas) recognition of the Embaló government. Uncertainty, however, would continue to plague the new government.

In May 2022, three months after an attempted coup, Embaló dissolved and suspended parliament.

The main opposition party, the PAIGC, formally regained parliamentary control in the June 2023 elections, setting the stage for continued confrontation between the presidency and the legislative majority. Embaló again pursued the dissolution of parliament in December 2023.

Although Embaló’s term officially expired in February 2025, the supreme court later ruled he could remain in office until 4 September.

Even after that date, Embaló remained in office. These manoeuvres have heightened concerns about the erosion of constitutional norms.

Concerns over the broader electoral environment have also come to the fore. Legislative elections initially scheduled for late November 2024 were indefinitely postponed due to alleged funding and logistical challenges. Earlier, Embaló had declared he would not seek reelection, only to reverse course in March 2025.

A mediation team deployed by the Economic Community of West African States, tasked with helping the sides agree to and honour an election timeline, abruptly withdrew following threats of expulsion from the Embaló government.

More recently, the PAIGC’s chosen presidential candidate, Domingos Simões Pereira, was barred from contesting the November election after the supreme court rejected his candidacy over the late submission of documents.

For the first time in Guinea-Bissau’s history, the country’s oldest and most influential party will be excluded from the presidential race.

The country has fallen in the Electoral Democracy Index, provided by the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem). As shown in the graph below, the decline even outpaces the drop witnessed after military coups in 2003, 2012, and the assassination of Vieira in 2009.

The V-Dem data end in 2024, and thus do not yet capture the 2025 election cycle.

Performative elections, entrenched power

What is unfolding in Guinea-Bissau is not an isolated crisis. It is part of a wider regional pattern in which leaders recognise that elections can be held, even celebrated, while hollowing out nearly everything that once made them meaningful. Critically, the recent coups in the region have been linked, in part, to popular frustration with flawed electoral processes.

Embaló has not entrenched himself with the personal longevity of Cameroon’s Biya or the institutional dominance of Tanzania’s CCM, but the mechanisms he has used to tilt the field look strikingly similar.

The removal of viable opponents, the manipulation of constitutional timelines, the coercive use of the security sector, and the corrosion of judicial independence all signal a shift away from accountability.

Guinea-Bissau was for the first time in decades poised to demonstrate that democratic resilience could be strengthened. Instead, the 2025 election cycle risks becoming another example of how fragile gains can be reversed with impunity.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Guinea-Bissau’s presidential poll has already failed the credibility test – https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-presidential-poll-has-already-failed-the-credibility-test-269461

November 16, 2025

Violence is a normal part of life for many young children: study traces the mental health impacts

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Kirsten A Donald, Professor of Paediatric Neurology and Development, University of Cape Town

By Teresa – Scan on Xerox DocuColor 2240, CC BY-SA 3.0, CC BY

Children in many countries are growing up surrounded by violence. It may happen at home, in their neighbourhoods, or both. Some children are directly harmed, while others witness violence between caregivers or in their communities. Either way, the impact can be profound.

Evidence shows that the relationship between violence exposure and poor mental health can be seen even before a child is old enough to go to school. Researchers are learning that early adversities can have lifelong consequences.

We are researchers in paediatric neuroscience and psychology who set out to understand how early experiences of violence are shaping young children’s cognitive and emotional health in low- and middle-income countries. Here we discuss our findings from a review of studies from 20 countries and new data from a large cohort of children in South Africa.

We found that violence exposure is extremely common in all the countries we looked at and that its effects on mental health are already visible in childhood.

The response will require action at all levels – families, communities, health systems and governments.

Gaps in the research

Early childhood (birth to 8 years) is a critical period for emotional, social and cognitive development. Mental health or cognitive difficulties that begin in the preschool years can shape children’s relationships, learning and wellbeing well into adolescence and adulthood. Yet, little is known about how violence affects children in the early years in low – and middle-income countries, where violence rates can be high. Most research focuses on school-age children or adolescents, missing the window when prevention may be most effective, in early childhood.

We aimed to fill that gap by collating existing knowledge and generating new evidence from South African children. This formed the basis of co-author Lucinda’s PhD thesis.

First, we reviewed 17 published studies from 20 low- and middle-income countries, examining how violence exposure affects children’s cognitive functioning. Second, we used data from almost 1,000 children in the Drakenstein Child Health Study, a long-running birth cohort in a peri-urban community outside Cape Town. We examined these children’s exposure to different types of violence by age four-and-a-half and assessed their mental health at age five.

What we found

Sadly, our findings revealed that violence exposure is extremely common.

The review found that over 70% of the studies drawing from 27,643 children from 20 countries, aged up to 11, across four continents, reported poor cognitive outcomes associated with experiencing maltreatment, intimate partner violence and war.

In our South African cohort, by age 4.5 years, 83% of children were exposed to some form of violence. This included witnessing community violence (74%), witnessing domestic violence (32%), and being direct victims in the community (13%) or at home (31%). Nearly half (45%) experienced more than one type of violence.

In many countries, early exposure to violence is not exceptional. It is a normal part of growing up for many children.

Regarding how violence affects mental health in early childhood, the South African data showed that preschool children exposed to more violence displayed more internalising symptoms, such as anxiety, fear, or sadness, and externalising symptoms, such as aggression, hyperactivity, and rule-breaking. Experiencing violence at home and witnessing violence in the community were particularly linked with these difficulties.

One of the clearest findings was that multiple exposures compounded the risk. Children who experienced both domestic and community violence were at particularly high risk of mental health difficulties, especially experiencing externalising symptoms.

Public health challenge

These results highlight a major public health challenge, which starts early. These patterns appear before school entry, suggesting that violence exposure can alter developmental pathways well before formal education begins.

Since the risks from mental health difficulties linked to violence were visible by age five, waiting to intervene until school-age misses a crucial opportunity.

Impacts to wellbeing in early childhood can cause some children to internalise distress and others to act out, but both can disrupt learning, relationships and future mental health.

It is a stark reality that in some communities, most children are affected by violence. Individual therapy alone cannot fix a problem this widespread. It is a population-level issue. Broader community and policy responses are needed, such as the INSPIRE strategies developed by the World Health Organization.

Where to from here

The reality is grim and calls for quick and informed action at all levels: families, communities, health systems, and governments. A successful response will include:

Early identification: Health and community services should routinely ask about violence exposure, including witnessing violence, during early childhood visits.
Support for families: Interventions that reduce domestic violence, strengthen parenting skills, and provide mental health and social support can protect both children and adults.
Addressing community violence: Safer neighbourhoods, violence prevention efforts and policing reforms should be implemented and also clearly linked with child mental health strategies in policy wording.
Policy that prioritises early childhood: Governments and NGOs should embed early violence prevention and child mental health promotion into national health and education strategies.
Monitoring and revising strategies: Improving data collection and data quality will help track progress and inform improvements to further interventions.

Violence exposure in early childhood is widespread in low- and middle-income countries and has clear impacts on young children’s mental health. These effects emerge early, grow with multiple exposures, and require early intervention at every level. Protection and support are essential to build healthier and safer communities for the future.

There is hope as some organisations in South Africa are working to prevent violence against women and children, and intervening for those affected.

Lucinda Tsunga received funding from the University of Bristol’s (i) Pro Vice-Chancellor (PVC)-Research and Enterprise Strategic Research Fund and (ii) The Quality-related Research Global Challenges Research Fund (QRGCRF) Strategy funded by Research England during the course of her Dctoral studies.

Kirsten A Donald does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Violence is a normal part of life for many young children: study traces the mental health impacts – https://theconversation.com/violence-is-a-normal-part-of-life-for-many-young-children-study-traces-the-mental-health-impacts-268512