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Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Dearing, Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Southampton

Some of Earth’s largest climate systems may collapse not with a bang, but with a whimper. Surprisingly, experiments with magnets are helping us understand how.

We now widely accept that greenhouse gases and the way we use natural resources are putting enormous stress on the world’s climate and ecosystems. It’s also well known that even small increases in stress can push Earth systems, like rainforests, ice sheets or ocean currents, past tipping points, leading to major and often irreversible changes.

But there’s a lot we still don’t know about tipping points. When might they happen? What will they look like? And what should we do about them?

Some local tipping points have already been reached. For example, many lakes have abruptly shifted in the past few decades from clear water to slimy, algae-choked pools, usually in response to fertilisers running off nearby farmland.

For larger systems, like the entire Amazon forest or the West Antarctic ice sheet, the longer timescales involved mean direct observation – and certainly experiments – are impossible.

But we can look for clues elsewhere. In fact, we can now learn about tipping points from something much smaller and far more controllable: magnets.

Magnets have tipping points too

In our recent research, we used magnetic materials to mimic the behaviour of an ecosystem stressed by global warming. Just like Earth’s climate systems, magnets can tip from one stable state to another – flipping from positive to negative – when pushed hard enough.

We found that magnets don’t all flip the same way. Some shift abruptly – a characteristic of many hard materials. Others shift smoothly and more easily – as commonly found with soft magnets.

Whether a magnet collapses abruptly or smoothly is determined by its structure. As a general rule, hard materials are simple structures that absorb stress up to a point and then suddenly flip – much like a small, well-mixed lake that stays clear until one day, when enough fertiliser has leaked in, it turns green and slimy almost overnight.

Soft magnets, on the other hand, are more complex inside. Different parts respond to stress at different rates. This is similar to a large forest, where some species can handle rising temperatures but others are less resilient.

The result is a reorganisation. Some species die out, others take over, and the whole system gradually transitions into a different type of forest – or even into a new ecosystem like a grassland.

The same principles may apply beyond biology. Ocean currents and ice sheets with their many varied and moving parts might also behave like soft magnets, reorganising gradually rather than collapsing in one sudden movement.

Softer systems are easier to flip back

Our experiments with magnets uncovered something else with implications for Earth’s climate systems and their tipping points.

The softer a system is, the easier it is to reverse the change – but only if you act before the stress builds up. If the pressure has built up too much, even soft systems start behaving like hard ones, flipping suddenly and dramatically.

We also found that what may look like a soft and complex system – a whole rainforest or ice sheet, for instance – can be made up of lots of smaller hard elements. Each of these elements has its own sensitivity to a specific level of stress. Zoom in far enough, and you’ll see many more abrupt tipping points at the level of a single lake or patch of trees.

This matters because the speed of change is just as important as the amount. In magnets, the faster we applied stress, the more likely they were to tip suddenly. Climate systems seem to behave the same way: the faster we heat the world, the greater the risk of sudden collapse.

If we see these big complex systems slowly shifting and think there’s still time to act – we may be wrong. Like the proverbial frogs in boiling water, we may not notice we have passed the point of no return until it is too late.

This is why we must watch closely, especially at the local level, for any warning signs. A patch of wetland drying out or a small tract of forest dying back. These might seem like small changes, but they may signal a much larger decline is already underway.

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John Dearing is a member of the Green Party of England and Wales.

Roy Thompson and Simon Willcock do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Gradual v sudden collapse: what magnets teach us about climate tipping points – https://theconversation.com/gradual-v-sudden-collapse-what-magnets-teach-us-about-climate-tipping-points-258606

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Longden, Senior Researcher, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University

The UK government recently expanded the warm home discount by removing restrictions that had previously excluded many people who can’t always afford to heat their homes. Now, the payment of £150 will be received by 2.7 million more households than last winter.

The UK government has also reversed its decision to limit winter fuel payments to only the poorest pensioners. This could benefit up to 9 million people.

The UK government has two other mechanisms for reducing heating costs over winter. The warm home discount and winter fuel payment are both one-off payments that help people pay their heating bills. The cold weather payment aims to support people during spells of very cold weather.

Recipients of specific means-tested benefits in England, Wales and Northern Ireland automatically receive £25 after cold weather occurs in their region. Another policy applies in Scotland, where some people get a single winter heating payment.

While these changes to the winter fuel payment and warm home discount are welcome, the cold weather payment has long been seen as an outdated, old-fashioned scheme in need of change. For example, it is paid after cold weather happens. Our research indicates that it can be improved by changing this.

The wide use of smart meters means that researchers like us can now produce data-driven studies that improve our understanding of energy use and expenditure during cold weather. Our recent studies of prepayment meter customers’ energy use indicate ways to improve the cold weather payments.

Analysis of electricity and gas smart-meter data from 11,500 Utilita Energy prepayment customers showed that 63% of households self-disconnected from energy supply at least once a year. In this study, published in Energy Research & Social Science, we found that more homes self-disconnected from gas during cold periods than at other times. There was no evidence to show that the cold weather payment as presently designed reduced this risk.

Also using smart meter data from energy company Utilita Energy, a recent study published in the journal Energy Economics shows that prepayment gas customers in regions with high fuel poverty tend to struggle at temperatures below −4°C. Below this temperature, prepayment gas customers need to top up more often and with higher amounts. People using prepayment tend to top-up their credit in advance of cold weather.

In colder weather, more people use emergency credit and disconnect from power more often. Emergency credit is provided by the utility as a short-term loan. Self-disconnections occur when the household has no credit left and they have no energy supply.

The government’s payment is triggered when the average temperature falls below 0°C for seven consecutive days. As this metric is not reported by news media or meteorology services, it’s hard to know when the cold weather payment will be received. The easiest way to find out if a payment will be made, after cold weather, requires people to enter their postcode at a Department for Work and Pensions website.

If people are unsure if severe weather is forecast, they may not increase their top-up in advance. They may, however, self-ration or limit energy use to save money.

The cold weather payment is only paid once even when there are multiple periods of cold. This “overlap penalty” severely affects those living in northern England and particularly Yorkshire, which is a colder region where cold weather spells are more common.

Cause for reform

The payment should be made in advance of cold weather, and utility companies could pay it directly to customers who have smart meters. Credits could be applied for those using other types of meters. This is likely to reduce self-disconnections and self-rationing during very cold nights.

Payments should be triggered by the minimum night-time temperature. The temperature measure used at present is confusing and the money is not paid until up to two weeks after extremely cold weather, which is problematic for those on tight budgets.

To better match the support needed during cold weather, the amount paid should be increased to £10 a day for every day that minimum temperatures are forecast to be below −4°C. This would improve energy security for people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

A policy will only be effective when it is clearly communicated and understood by those it applies to. To prevent self-rationing, people need to know that payment support has arrived, otherwise they may hesitate to turn up the heating on the coldest days of winter, with all the risks that involves.

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Thomas Longden has recently received funding from Energy Consumers Australia and Original Power – a community-focused, Aboriginal organisation. He is a member of the ACT Climate Change Council and the NSW branch of the Economic Society of Australia.

Brenda Boardman is affiliated in the UK with the End Fuel Poverty Coalition and the Labour Party. Her research on pre-payment meter households was co-funded by Utilita Giving.

Tina Fawcett currently receives funding from UKRI. Her research on pre-payment meter households was co-funded by Utilita Giving.

– ref. How the UK’s cold weather payments need to change to help prevent people freezing in winter – https://theconversation.com/how-the-uks-cold-weather-payments-need-to-change-to-help-prevent-people-freezing-in-winter-259339

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sudhansu Bala Das, Postdoctoral researcher in Linguistics, University of Galway

India is a home to numerous ancient and linguistically rich languages across its many regions. In a single home, a young person may speak, for example, Odia (the language spoken in the eastern state of Odisha) with their grandparents, switch to English for homework, and enjoy listening to Hindi songs on YouTube.

Far from being confusing, this coexistence is necessary and natural. It’s a hallmark of a nation where language diversity is embraced as a strength rather than being a barrier to be overcome.

India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, reflected this attitude in February this year when he remarked that there had “never been any animosity among Indian languages”. He was speaking at a major literary conference in the state of Maharashtra, where the vast majority of people, 84 million out of a population of 112 million, speak Marathi as a first language with Hindi a distant second.

“[Indian languages] have always influenced and enriched each other, he said. “It is our social responsibility to distance ourselves from such misconceptions and embrace and enrich all languages.” His remarks reinforced a broader message: that linguistic diversity is not a barrier, but a shared cultural strength that binds India together.

But language can also be a politically divisive issue in such a diverse country. And Modi and members of his government have been criticised for words and actions seen as trying to shape the use of Hindi, English and other languages within India. Because of the country’s linguistic complexity, the situation is always more complicated to navigate than it might first appear.

India has a total of around 19,500 languages or dialects that are spoken as mother tongues, according to the 2011 census. Of those, 22 languages are recognised as official under the Indian constitution.

The 2011 census found that 44% of Indians, about 528 million people, speak Hindi as their first language (meaning what is spoken at home). Similarly, around 57% of people use it as a second or third language.

That means Hindi has a broad presence across regions, but it exists alongside many other languages with equal value, including Marathi, Bengali (97 million), Telugu (81 million), Tamil (69 million) and Meitei (1.8 million).

At the national level, India has two official languages: Hindi and English. Hindi is used for communication within the central government, while English is widely used in legal, administrative and international affairs. Each state can choose its own official language(s) for state-level governance. For example, Tamil Nadu uses Tamil, Maharashtra uses Marathi, and so on.

But in daily life, people often switch between languages depending on where they are and who they are speaking to, at home, at work, or in public spaces. According to the 2011 census, nearly one in four Indians said they could speak at least two languages, and over 7% said they could speak three.

India introduced a three-language formula in education the 1960s. This policy guideline encouraged students to learn three languages: their regional mother tongue, Hindi (if it is not already their first language) and English. This was intended to produce a flexible and inclusive approach across different states.

In 2020, the Modi government introduced a new national education policy that gave states more flexibility to pick which two Indian languages should be taught alongside English, but made the recommendation compulsory in all states. This has led to a backlash in several states because some fear it effectively introduces Hindi teaching by the backdoor and will dilute the use of other languages.

There is also considerable debate in India about the role of English, which about 10.6% of Indians speak to some degree but some believe is a relic of colonial rule. Modi himself has suggested this is the case and has taken action to reduce the official use of English, for example in medical schools.

However, he has also acknowledged the importance of English, particularly in global communication, and spoken of the value all Indian languages bring to the country’s unity and progress. “It is our duty to embrace all languages,” he told the audience in Maharashtra, adding that Indian languages, including English, “have always enriched each other and formed the foundation of our unity”.

Many see the language as a link between the many linguistic communities of India. Others see it is a tool for social mobility, especially for lower castes. Some have even accused the government of wanting to discourage English in order to maintain social privileges and promote the dominance of Hindi.

On the other hand, the 2020 national education policy mandates the teaching of English. It recommends bilingual textbooks in English and local languages, and that English should be taught “wherever possible” alongside mother tongues in primary education.

The government is also taking steps to make the digital world more inclusive to people, whatever their language. Launched by Modi in 2022, the Bhashini project is a national AI initiative supporting speech-to-text, real-time translation and digital accessibility in all 22 official languages. This aims to make digital platforms and public services more inclusive, especially for rural and remote communities.

As poet and Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore once wrote: “If God had so wished, he would have made all Indians speak with one language … the unity of India has been and shall always be a unity in diversity.”

In India, children today grow up speaking their mother tongue, with many learning Hindi to communicate across regions, and gaining English skills for global connections. India’s future does not depend on choosing one language over another, but on enabling them to flourish side by side.

There’s a Chinese proverb: “To learn a language is to have one more window from which to look at the world.” With thousands of such windows, India’s future is rooted in both unity and diversity.

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Sudhansu Bala Das does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Many tongues, one people: the debate over linguistic diversity in India – https://theconversation.com/many-tongues-one-people-the-debate-over-linguistic-diversity-in-india-261308

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Susan Walker, Associate Professor in Contraception, Reproductive and Sexual Health, Anglia Ruskin University

A potential new male contraceptive drug has just undergone its first tests in human volunteers. The results give the first indication that the drug, which does not use artificial hormones or affect testosterone production by the testes, may be safe in humans.

While previous attempts have been made to develop a male contraceptive in the past, these largely failed to pass clinical trials due to their unacceptable side-effects. But this newest contraceptive works differently from past attempts, which means it doesn’t require surgery and is much less likely to cause hormonal side-effects – problems that have helped stop previous attempts from reaching the market.

The study showed the drug was well tolerated in a small group of healthy young men and did not appear to cause any serious side-effects at the doses used. Further research will be needed to demonstrate precisely how effective it is as a contraceptive.

The new method uses a specially-designed chemical known as YCT-529 to target a specific cell receptor in the testes called retinoic acid receptor–alpha.

Similar, but less specific compounds, had been shown to reduce sperm production in humans previously. But these compounds also had unwanted side-effects – such as feeling ill when drinking alcohol, altering salt levels in the bloodstream and not being fully reversible in all men. This made them unsuitable for contraceptive use.

But in animal studies, YCT-529 was shown to produce fully reversible, temporary infertility without any significant side-effects. A study in mice also found that those who went on to father babies after stopping the drug produce normal, healthy offspring.

Based on these results, the drug then entered into phase one trials in humans. This is the first stage of human testing, where a small group of healthy volunteers are recruited to test safety, tolerability and possible side-effects.

This small trial involved 16 male volunteers who took the drug twice at increasing doses – either 10mg to 30mg or 90mg to 180mg. Some men took placebo pills for comparison.

The participants were monitored for 15 days for any effects on normal hormone levels, inflammation (signs of cell damage), kidney and liver function, abnormal heart rhythms, sexual desire and mood.

No changes were detected in the natural hormones in the body. There were also no lasting effects on liver and kidney function and no signs of cell damage. No dangerous abnormalities of heart rhythm were detected, and the participants reported no changes in mood or sexual desire.

However, participants only took two doses of the drug and were only followed up for 15 days. The authors say in the paper that a larger phase two trial is underway which will test the drug in a greater number of men.

This will then be followed by phase three trials in hundreds of men where the effectiveness, reversibility and side-effects of longer term use of the drug will be assessed. These are the hurdles which have prevented other approaches from being made widely available.

Why past male contraceptives have failed

At present there are no commercially available contraceptive methods for men that are not only safe and effective at preventing pregnancy, but which also allow sperm production to be turned off and on again at will.

While condoms have few side-effects and are used at will, they have a relatively high failure rate (resulting in pregnancy around 12%-18% of the time with typical use).

A vasectomy, which severs the tube connecting the sperm-producing testes to the rest of the male reproductive organs, is very effective (more than 99%) and safe – but it’s not easily reversible and requires a minor operation.

There have been previous attempts (and some ongoing) at producing a reversible method of contraception for men. Some have proven to be effective at stopping sperm production or preventing sperm from exiting the male reproductive tract. However, they haven’t moved to the stage of commercial production, often because of unwanted side-effects.

Most of these attempts used one of two main approaches to prevent pregnancy.

One method involves injecting a substance into the vas deferens (a tube leading from the testes to the urethra). This substance filters out and damages sperm during ejaculation. This substance can be flushed out through a minor procedure if the man wishes to become fertile again.

The drawback of this method is that it requires a minor surgical procedure (an injection into the scrotum) and that the man has to have a further procedure to reverse its effects.

The second route involves stopping sperm production altogether by lowering the hormones that cause sperm to be made in the testes.

The most successful of these trials used an injectable progestogen (a synthetic version of the sex hormone progesterone). This injectable signalled the brain to stop producing follicular stimulating hormone (FSH) and lutenising hormone (LH), which normally signal the testes to produce sperm and testosterone.

However, suppressing LH also turned off the testosterone in the testes that is needed for normal, healthy function in men. To counteract the loss of testosterone, this contraceptive approach required men to take an “add back” testosterone – either as a tablet or a gel applied to the skin.

But a major trial testing this method was stopped early because of the hormonal side-effects participants experienced, including mood swings, acne and changes to sex drive.

There’s a long way to go before the new drug can be considered suitable for use as a male contraceptive. But this new approach shows a lot of promise because it avoids upsetting hormonal balance and can be taken orally – rather than requiring an invasive procedure.

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Susan Walker has previously received funding from Bayer PLC who manufacture contraceptive devices.

– ref. Hormone-free male contraceptive pill passes first safety test – https://theconversation.com/hormone-free-male-contraceptive-pill-passes-first-safety-test-262083

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Halvorsen, Reader in Human Geography, Queen Mary University of London

When UK Conservative party head Kemi Badenoch recently declared that she aspires to be Britain’s Milei, she aligned herself with one of the world’s most radical and controversial leaders.

Javier Milei, Argentina’s self-styled “anarcho-capitalist” president, has gained global notoriety since his election in December 2023 for wielding a chainsaw at rallies, promising to destroy the so-called “political caste” and launching a scorched-earth economic reform programme.

But what has Milei actually achieved since entering office? And should Britain really be looking to his administration for inspiration?

Milei swept to power on a wave of anti-establishment anger. Styling himself as an outsider economist rallying against the ruling caste, he promised to slash state spending and replace Argentina’s peso with the more stable US dollar. He also pledged to eliminate entire government ministries, including health, education and culture.

His now-famous “chainsaw plan” proposed a dramatic restructuring of Argentina’s political and economic institutions, which he blamed for decades of stagnation and corruption. Backed by business elites and libertarian ideologues, Milei offered a vision of Argentina remade through radical individualism and state retrenchment.

His campaign, which contained some clear populist tendencies, was built as much on spectacle as substance. It contained daily media outbursts, personal attacks and an anti-caste rhetoric designed to turn governance into performance.

Inflation was central to Milei’s campaign. When he took office, annual inflation in Argentina stood at over 130%, one of the highest rates in the world. Milei promised to bring it under control by slashing the fiscal deficit and enforcing monetary discipline.

Monthly inflation doubled in the first months of his administration, forcing millions of Argentinians further into poverty. But it has fallen below 50% since the middle of 2025, which has been held by the government as a success.

However, the decrease in the inflation rate is the result of economic recession. While international markets have praised Milei’s fiscal orthodoxy, there is little sign of a growth rebound. Investment has stalled, consumption has plummeted and local industries are struggling amid cuts to public procurement.

Consumption has shown signs of recovery in the last few months, but only in the high-income segment. This has deepened a dual reality where middle-class and working sectors cannot make ends meet. Instead of helping the Argentinian economy recover, high-income consumption also pushes the trade balance to deteriorate.

Milei’s government has endeavoured to keep the Argentine peso strong. A strong currency has seen foreign investments paused and, despite ongoing capital controls, millions of US dollars leave the country with a surge in Argentinian tourism abroad. This trend is exactly the opposite of the most controversial of Milei’s promises: to adopt the dollar in Argentina.

Given the critical level of the central bank’s foreign reserves, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the release of a US$4.7 billion (£3.5 billion) loan tranche in April 2024. It is expected to loan an extra US$2 billion before the 2025 mid-term elections in October.

Squeezing Argentinian society

Job losses have been extensive. Tens of thousands of public sector workers have been laid off, and many more have seen their salaries decimated by inflation. Entire agencies have been shut, from science and housing to the post office.

Milei’s framing of public employees as part of a parasitic caste has helped him politically. It has reinforced his anti-establishment credentials and mobilised resentment among private sector workers and the self-employed. But it has further polarised an already fragmented Argentinian society.

Unions and civil society organisations have mobilised in response, organising strikes and mass protests. These have been met in turn with crackdowns, the criminalisation of dissent and expanded police powers.

Meanwhile, Congress has been sidelined. Milei’s critics warn of creeping authoritarianism as the president governs increasingly by decree, perhaps most notably by attempting to fill two vacancies of the Supreme Court in February.

Environmental protection and foreign policy have also been reshaped by Milei’s radical agenda. The ministry of environment was among the agencies targeted for elimination. And Milei’s sweeping law of bases bill, which became law in 2024, included provisions to weaken environmental regulations and accelerate extractive industries such as lithium and oil.

Milei dismisses environmental concerns as leftist distractions from economic freedom. This is a stance echoed in his foreign policy, which has seen Argentina pivot away from regional cooperation. He has snubbed neighbours like Brazil, withdrawn from the accession process to the Brics group of nations and has aligned himself more closely with the US, Israel and the global far right.

He frequently rails against “global socialism”, and presents himself as a figurehead of a new anti-globalist movement. This posture appeals to his domestic base and international allies, but has further isolated Argentina diplomatically and eroded longstanding regional ties.

If Badenoch wants to emulate Milei, it raises serious questions about the political and economic future she envisions for Britain. Argentina is currently living through a radical experiment in state destruction. Despite circumstantially winning praise from bond markets and libertarian circles, it has brought pain, polarisation and increasing levels of repression.

For those looking beyond spectacle, Milei’s presidency offers not a blueprint for bold reform, but a cautionary tale about the dangers of governing by chainsaw.

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The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Kemi Badenoch says she wants to be Britain’s Javier Milei – but is the Argentinian president a model to follow? – https://theconversation.com/kemi-badenoch-says-she-wants-to-be-britains-javier-milei-but-is-the-argentinian-president-a-model-to-follow-261915

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Brian Brivati, Visiting Professor of Contemporary History and Human Rights, Kingston University

Keir Starmer has announced that the UK will recognise Palestinian statehood by September 2025 unless Israel meets certain conditions, marking a significant shift in UK policy.

For decades, successive UK governments withheld recognition, insisting it could only come as part of a negotiated settlement between Israel and Palestine. This position, rooted in the Oslo accords of the 1990s and aligned with US policy, effectively gave Israel a veto over Palestinian statehood. As long as Israel refused to engage seriously in peace talks, the UK refrained from acting.

Starmer has now broken with this precedent, potentially aligning the UK with 147 other countries. But the Israeli government must take what the UK calls “substantive steps” toward peace. These include agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza, allowing full humanitarian access, explicitly rejecting any plans to annex West Bank territory, and returning to a credible peace process aimed at establishing a two-state solution.

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Read more:
UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here’s what that would mean

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If Israel meets these conditions, the UK would presumably withhold recognition until the “peace process” has been completed. Starmer made clear that Britain will assess Israeli compliance in September and reserves the right to proceed with recognition regardless of Israel’s response. The message was unambiguous: no one side will have a veto.

This is more than just clever internal politics and party management. Anything that puts any pressure on Israel to move towards peace should be welcomed. But will it amount to much more than that?

Starmer has faced criticism over the last few years for resisting recognising Palestine as a state. While Labour’s frontbench held the line for much of the past year, rank-and-file discontent has grown – and with it, the political risks.

At the heart of Labour’s internal tensions lie two irreconcilable blocs. On one side are MPs and activists – both inside the party and expelled from it – who are vocally pro-Palestinian and have been outraged by the government’s failure to act. On the other side are members of the Labour right who continue to back Israel, oppose unilateral recognition of statehood and focus on the terrible crimes of Hamas but not the IDF campaign in Gaza.

Between them sits a soft-centre majority, for whom foreign policy is not a defining issue. They are not ideologically committed to either side but have become increasingly uneasy with the escalating violence and the UK’s diplomatic inertia.

As the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza deepens, public outrage in the UK has grown. Mass protests have put mounting pressure on the government to act. Within parliament, over 200 MPs, including many from Labour, signed a letter demanding immediate recognition of Palestine. Senior cabinet ministers reportedly pushed hard for the shift on electoral grounds, as well as principle.

International dynamics have also played a crucial role. France’s announcement that it would recognise Palestine by September, becoming the first major western power to do so, created additional pressure. Spain, Ireland, Norway and several other European states have already taken the step. Britain chose to align itself with this emerging consensus.

These pressures combined created a sense of urgency and political opportunity. Starmer’s government appears to be using the threat of recognition as leverage –pressuring Israel to return to negotiations and halt annexation plans.

The calculation seems to be that Israel will either meet the UK’s conditions or face diplomatic consequences, including recognition of Palestine without its consent. There is also the possibility that Israel will simply ignore the UK and press on with its campaign for “Greater Israel”.

Challenges ahead

That is why, while this is a meaningful departure from the past, it is not without problems. Chief among them is the principle of conditionality itself. By making recognition contingent on Israeli behaviour, the UK risks reinforcing the very logic it claims to be rejecting – that Palestinian rights can be granted or withheld based on the actions of the occupying power.

Recognition of statehood should not be used as a diplomatic carrot or stick. It is a matter of justice, not reward. Palestinians are entitled to self-determination under international law.

There is also concern that the September deadline could become another missed opportunity. If Israel makes vague or symbolic gestures – such as issuing carefully worded statements or temporarily suspending one settlement expansion – will the UK delay recognition further, claiming that “progress” is being made?

Palestinians have seen such tactics before. Recognition has been delayed for decades in the name of preserving leverage. But leverage for what?

The Israeli government, dominated by ultra-nationalists and pro-annexation hardliners, is unlikely to satisfy the UK’s conditions in good faith. The risk is that the deadline becomes a mirage – always imminent, never reached.

Recognition also comes as part of a proposed new peace plan. This will be supported by the UK, France and Germany, and it allows the government to say it is being consist with its policy that recognition is part of a peace plan.

If, by some miracle, pressure works and Israel meets all the conditions, then the UK can claim that recognition has played a role in bringing Israel back to the negotiating table.

But if recognition is then withheld, there will not be two equal actors at that table. The State of Palestine will not have been recognised by key international players, and a new round of western-run peace processes will begin. These do not have a good track record.

If Israel fails to agree to a ceasefire and let aid into Gaza, then Starmer will be forced to go through with recognition.

For now, he has defused the internal division in his party. It is clever politics, good party management – it remains to be seen if it is also statesmanship.

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Brian Brivati is affiliated with Britain Palestine Project, a Scottish Charity that campaigns for equal rights, justice and security for Israelis and Palestiniains

– ref. Starmer’s move on Palestinian statehood is clever politics – https://theconversation.com/starmers-move-on-palestinian-statehood-is-clever-politics-262239

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alan Dykes, Associate Professor in Engineering Geology, Kingston University

The earthquake near the east coast of the Kamchatka peninsula in Russia on July 30 2025 generated tsunami waves that have reached Hawaii and coastal areas of the US mainland. The earthquake’s magnitude of 8.8 is significant, potentially making it one of the largest quakes ever recorded.

Countries around much of the Pacific, including in east Asia, North and South America, issued alerts and in some cases evacuation orders in anticipation of potentially devastating waves. Waves of up to four metres hit coastal towns in Kamchatka near where the earthquake struck, apparently causing severe damage in some areas.

But in other places waves have been smaller than expected, including in Japan, which is much closer to Kamchatka than most of the Pacific rim. Many warnings have now been downgraded or lifted with relatively little damage. It seems that for the size of the earthquake, the tsunami has been rather smaller than might have been the case. To understand why, we can look to geology.

The earthquake was associated with the Pacific tectonic plate, one of several major pieces of the Earth’s crust. This pushes north-west against the part of the North American plate that extends west into Russia, and is forced downwards beneath the Kamchatka peninsula in a process called subduction.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) says the average rate of convergence – a measure of plate movement – is around 80mm per year. This is one of the highest rates of relative movement at a plate boundary.

But this movement tends to take place as an occasional sudden movement of several metres. In any earthquake of this type and size, the displacement may occur over a contact area between the two tectonic plates of slightly less than 400km by 150km, according to the USGS.

The Earth’s crust is made of rock that is very hard and brittle at the small scale and near the surface. But over very large areas and depths, it can deform with slightly elastic behaviour. As the subducting slab – the Pacific plate – pushes forward and descends, the depth of the ocean floor may suddenly change.

Nearer to the coastline, the crust of the overlying plate may be pushed upward as the other pushed underneath, or – as was the case off Sumatra in 2004 – the outer edge of the overlying plate may be dragged down somewhat before springing back a few metres.

It is these near-instantaneous movements of the seabed that generate tsunami waves by displacing huge volumes of ocean water. For example, if the seabed rose just one metre across an area of 200 by 100km where the water is 1km deep, then the volume of water displaced would fill Wembley stadium to the roof 17.5 million times.

A one-metre rise like this will then propagate away from the area of the uplift in all directions, interacting with normal wind-generated ocean waves, tides and the shape of the sea floor to produce a series of tsunami waves. In the open ocean, the tsunami wave would not be noticed by boats and ships, which is why a cruise ship in Hawaii was quickly moved out to sea.

Waves sculpted by the seabed

The tsunami waves travel across the deep ocean at up to 440 miles per hour, so they may be expected to reach any Pacific Ocean coastline within 24 hours. However, some of their energy will dissipate as they cross the ocean, so they will usually be less hazardous at the furthest coastlines away from the earthquake.

The hazard arises from how the waves are modified as the seabed rises towards a shoreline. They will slow and, as a result, grow in height, creating a surge of water towards and then beyond the normal coastline.

The Kamchatka earthquake was slightly deeper in the Earth’s crust (20.7km) than the Sumatran earthquake of 2004 and the Japanese earthquake of 2011. This will have resulted in somewhat less vertical displacement of the seabed, with the movement of that seabed being slightly less instantaneous. This is why we’ve seen tsunami warnings lifted some time before any tsunami waves would have arrived there.

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Alan Dykes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why the Pacific tsunami was smaller than expected – a geologist explains – https://theconversation.com/why-the-pacific-tsunami-was-smaller-than-expected-a-geologist-explains-262273

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adele Julier, Senior Lecturer in Ecology, University of Portsmouth

Hosepipe bans in summer 2025 will mean many gardeners having to choose which of their plants to keep going with the watering can, and which to abandon. Are these temporary restrictions actually a sign we need to rethink British gardens altogether?

Climate change will bring the United Kingdom warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Britain has seen warm periods before, such as in the last interglacial period 130,000 years ago, but the current speed of change is unprecedented. This will have many effects, but it will also change one of the core parts of British life: our gardens.

Rather than fighting the inevitable and trying to keep growing the same plants we have always grown, how might we adapt what we grow and how we grow it?

The first to go, tragically for some, may be the classic British lawn. Already this year across the country, large areas of grass are looking parched and brown in the face of a long drought. The traditional lawn has just a few species of grass and is unlikely to be very drought-resistant. You can maintain a grass lawn that is more tolerant of dry weather by using drought-resistant fescue species of grass, and keeping the lawn well aerated (that means putting small holes in it to allow air, water and nutrients to reach the grass roots). But it may still suffer periods in which it looks unhealthy.

Swapping a lawn for a meadow can increase drought tolerance and decrease maintenance such as regular mowing and watering, because meadows only need to be cut once a year and don’t need as much water. Perhaps instead of lawns we can embrace No Mow May all year round, creating a greater diversity of plant and animal life in gardens.

Wildflowers such as yarrow and common knapweed can be great for pollinators and the birds that feed on them. These plants are drought-tolerant too.

As well as challenges in the face of a changing climate, there will be opportunities. Grape vines were grown in Britain in Roman times, and British wine production is once again a growing industry. Regular British gardeners could also grow a wider variety of grape vines, and even make their own wine. Warmer, drier summers could make plants such as citrus and olive trees easier to grow, with fruits more likely to ripen and less likely to be lost to frost in winter. Sunflowers, while they already grow here, could also thrive in the new conditions.

There will be a shift in the best types of decorative plants for gardens, with those needing lots of water, such as hydrangeas, delphiniums and gentians, becoming difficult to grow. We could look to the Mediterranean for inspiration, and choose shrubs such as thyme and lavender, or climbers like passion flowers, that need less water. It is also possible to grow a drought-tolerant garden with plants that are native to Britain, such as species of Geranium and Sedum. Coastal plants such as sea kale and sea holly that grow in harsh, rocky conditions can also make great garden plants in a drier climate.

Finally, the way we garden will need to change. Setting up water storage systems, from simple water butts to larger, more complex systems that could include grey water harvesting (used but clean water from baths and washing up) or underground water storage, will help gardeners to make the most of storms by storing the rainwater for use during droughts. You can set up a dispersion system to recycle lightly used household water, such as from a dishwasher or shower.

Soil health is important too, as soils with more organic matter are better at holding water. Composting food waste to add to soil would be a great way of helping to increase the organic content and make watering more efficient. This has the added value of avoiding peat composts. Peat comes from wetlands and it will eventually run out. Peat harvesting also releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change.

The next few decades will be challenging for gardeners. Britain will probably experience an increase in prolonged droughts and other extreme weather, as well as overall warming caused by climate change. Our gardens may cover a small proportion of land in the UK. But we can use them to experiment and develop sustainable ways of existing, growing not just new plants but also hope in the face of adversity.

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Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

Adele Julier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As climate change hits, what might the British garden of the future look like? – https://theconversation.com/as-climate-change-hits-what-might-the-british-garden-of-the-future-look-like-261608