Des centaines d’insectes affamés, un étudiant et une combinaison en mesh… Comment une série d’expériences aide à comprendre le vol des moustiques

Source: The Conversation – in French – By David Hu, Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Biology, Adjunct Professor of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology

En modélisant les trajectoires de moustiques volant autour d’une cible humaine, les scientifiques ont appris à prédire et caractériser leurs déplacements. David L. Hu, Georgia Tech

Derrière chaque piqûre se cache une mécanique précise : en suivant des moustiques à la trace, une équipe de chercheurs a mis au jour les lois qui gouvernent leur comportement.


« Quatre minutes, c’est trop long ».

Piqûres de moustiques
Le bras de Chris Zuo après une session avec les moustiques.
David L. Hu

Voici le message que m’a envoyé Chris Zuo, étudiant de premier cycle, accompagné de photos montrant d’innombrables piqûres de moustiques sur sa peau nue. Ce massacre sur l’ensemble du corps n’était pas le résultat d’un camping qui aurait mal tourné. Il avait passé ce laps de temps limité dans une pièce contenant 100 moustiques affamés, vêtu uniquement d’une combinaison en mesh que nous pensions capable de le protéger.

C’est ainsi qu’a débuté notre enquête de trois ans pour comprendre le comportement d’un insecte d’une simplicité trompeuse : le moustique. Cela peut ressembler au plan sadique d’un professeur, mais en réalité, nous avons respecté toutes les procédures. Le comité d’éthique de notre université a approuvé le protocole, en s’assurant que Chris était en sécurité et qu’il n’était soumis à aucune pression. Les moustiques étaient exempts de maladies et provenaient de notre État, la Géorgie. Et cette séance a donné lieu aux premières — et dernières — piqûres reçues par qui que ce soit dans le cadre de l’étude.

En plus de mon rôle de tortionnaire pour étudiants, je suis auteur et professeur à Georgia Tech, avec plus de 20 ans d’expérience dans l’étude des déplacements des animaux.

Les moustiques sont l’animal le plus dangereux au monde. Les maladies qu’ils transmettent, du paludisme à la dengue, provoquent plus de 700 000 décès par an. Les moustiques ont causé plus de morts que les guerres.

Le monde dépense 19 milliards d’euros par an en milliards de litres d’insecticides, en millions de kilos de larvicides et en millions de moustiquaires imprégnées d’insecticide – le tout pour lutter contre un insecte minuscule qui pèse dix fois moins qu’un grain de riz et ne possède que 200 000 neurones.

Et pourtant, les humains sont en train de perdre la guerre contre les moustiques. Ces insectes évoluent pour prospérer en milieu urbain et propagent les maladies plus rapidement avec le changement climatique. Comment des animaux aussi simples peuvent-ils nous repérer avec une telle facilité ?

Les scientifiques savent que les moustiques ont une très mauvaise vue et qu’ils dépendent de signaux chimiques pour compenser. Mais savoir ce qui attire un moustique ne suffit pas à prédire son comportement. On peut savoir qu’un missile à guidage thermique est attiré par la chaleur sans pour autant comprendre comment il fonctionne.

C’est là qu’intervient Chris et son sacrifice dans la pièce infestée de moustiques. En suivant les trajectoires de nombreux moustiques autour de lui, nous espérions déterminer comment ils adaptent leurs décisions à sa présence. Comprendre la manière dont les moustiques réagissent aux humains constitue une première étape pour mieux les contrôler.

Comment les moustiques repèrent leur repas

Sur les 3 500 espèces de moustiques, plus de 100 sont dites anthropophiles, c’est-à-dire qu’elles préfèrent les humains comme source de nourriture. Certaines espèces sont capables de repérer une seule personne au milieu d’un troupeau entier de bovins pour aller lui sucer le sang.

C’est une prouesse, étant donné que les moustiques ne volent pas bien. Ils cessent de voler dès qu’il y a une légère brise de 3 à 5 km/h, soit une vitesse d’air comparable à celle générée par le balancement de la queue d’un cheval. Dans des conditions plus calmes, les moustiques utilisent leur cerveau minuscule pour suivre la chaleur, l’humidité et les odeurs humaines transportées par le vent.

Le dioxyde de carbone, sous-produit de la respiration de tous les êtres vivants, est particulièrement attractif. Les moustiques le détectent aussi facilement que vous percevez l’odeur d’une benne à ordures pleine, jusqu’à environ 9 mètres de leur hôte, là où les concentrations chutent à quelques parties par million, soit l’équivalent de quelques tasses de colorant dans une piscine olympique.

Contour noir des lettres G et T dans le panneau de gauche ; dans le panneau de droite, des lignes sinueuses noires représentant les trajectoires de vol des moustiques autour des lettres.
Le contour sombre du logo de Georgia Tech plaît beaucoup aux moustiques.
David L. Hu, Georgia Tech

La vision des moustiques ne leur est pas très utile pour partir à la recherche de leur prochain repas. Leurs deux yeux comptent plusieurs centaines de petites lentilles individuelles appelées ommatidies, chacune large comme un cheveu humain. Elles produisent une image en mosaïque, légèrement floue, comme pixelisée. En raison des lois de l’optique, les moustiques ne peuvent distinguer un humain adulte qu’à quelques mètres de distance. Avec la seule vue, ils sont incapables de différencier un humain d’un petit arbre. Ils examinent donc chaque objet sombre.

Collecter des données sur les trajectoires de vol

La difficulté lorsqu’on étudie le vol des moustiques, c’est que, comme des enfants surexcités, la plupart de leurs mouvements n’ont pas vraiment de sens. Dans une pièce vide, les moustiques modifient très souvent leur vitesse et leur direction de façon complètement aléatoire. Il nous fallait donc de nombreuses trajectoires de vol pour faire émerger un signal au milieu de ce bruit.

Un homme allongé au sol, visible sur deux images affichées sur l’écran d’un ordinateur portable au premier plan.
Vêtu d’une combinaison en maille, Chris Zuo attend les moustiques, un peu perplexe.
David L. Hu, Georgia Tech

L’un de nos collaborateurs, le biologiste de l’université de Californie à Riverside Ring Cardé, nous a expliqué que dans les années 1980, les scientifiques menaient des « études de piqûres » en se mettant en sous-vêtements et en écrasant les moustiques qui se posaient sur leur peau nue. Selon lui, la nudité permettait d’éviter des variables parasites, comme la couleur du tissu d’une chemise.

Chris et moi nous sommes regardés. S’asseoir nu et attendre de servir de proie aux moustiques ? Non… Nous avons plutôt conçu la combinaison en mesh que Chris portait initialement dans la pièce infestée. Mais après avoir vu ses piqûres, il nous fallait une meilleure solution.

À la place, Chris a choisi des vêtements à manches longues, qu’il a lavés avec une lessive sans parfum, et a enfilé gants et masque. Entièrement protégé, il n’avait plus qu’à rester debout et attendre, tandis qu’un nuage de moustiques tourbillonnait autour de lui.

Les Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) des États-Unis nous ont fait découvrir le Photonic Sentry, une caméra capable de suivre simultanément des centaines d’insectes en vol dans une pièce. Elle enregistre 100 images par seconde avec une résolution de 5 mm, dans un espace de la taille d’un grand studio. En seulement quelques heures, Chris et un autre doctorant, Soohwan Kim, ont produit plus de données sur le vol des moustiques que tout ce qui avait été mesuré auparavant dans l’histoire humaine.

100 moustiques volant autour de Chris Zuo pendant 10 minutes. Seule une partie des trajectoires observées est restituée.

Pour les mathématiciens, comme nos collaborateurs Jörn Dunkel, Chenyi Fei et Alex Cohen du MIT, la géométrie du corps de Chris reste trop complexe pour étudier les réactions des moustiques. Les mathématiciens excellent dans l’art de ramener les problèmes complexes à leur essence. Chenyi a donc suggéré d’épargner Chris : pourquoi ne pas le remplacer par un simple mannequin, une boule noire en polystyrène fixée sur un support, associée à une source de dioxyde de carbone ?

Au cours des deux années suivantes, Chris a filmé sans relâche les moustiques tournoyant autour de ces mannequins en polystyrène. Puis il les aspirait à l’aide d’un aspirateur, en essayant de ne pas se faire piquer.

Décrypter les trajectoires

Un moustique vole comme on pilote un avion : il tourne à gauche ou à droite, accélère ou freine. Nous avons d’abord caractérisé son comportement de vol en fonction de sa vitesse, de sa position et de sa direction par rapport à la cible, première étape pour construire notre modèle.

Notre confiance dans ces règles de comportement s’est renforcée à mesure que nous analysions davantage de trajectoires, jusqu’à exploiter 20 millions de données concernant les positions et les vitesses des moustiques. Cette idée consistant à intégrer des observations pour étayer une hypothèse mathématique remonte à 200 ans et porte le nom d’inférence bayésienne. Nous avons ensuite illustré le comportement des moustiques observé à l’aide d’une application web.

Quatre panneaux montrant la trajectoire d’un moustique en l’absence de cible, en présence d’une cible visuelle, d’une source de CO₂, ou des deux combinées.
Le moustique adapte son vol à la cible qu’on lui présente.
David L. Hu

Grâce à notre modèle, nous avons montré que différents types de cibles modifient le vol des moustiques. Les cibles visuelles provoquent des survols, où les moustiques passent à proximité avant de continuer leur route. Le dioxyde de carbone entraîne des hésitations, les moustiques ralentissant à proximité de la cible. La combinaison d’un signal visuel et de dioxyde de carbone génère des trajectoires orbitales à grande vitesse.

Jusqu’à présent, nous avions uniquement utilisé des expériences avec des sphères en polystyrène pour entraîner notre modèle. Le véritable test consistait à voir s’il pouvait prédire le vol des moustiques autour d’un humain. Chris est retourné dans la chambre, cette fois vêtu de blanc et coiffé d’un chapeau noir, se transformant en véritable cible. Notre modèle a correctement prédit la répartition des moustiques autour de lui. Nous avons ainsi identifié des zones à risque, où la probabilité de voir des moustiques tournoyer autour de lui était élevée.

Prédire le comportement des moustiques constitue une première étape pour les déjouer. Dans les zones infestées, on conçoit par exemple des maisons dotées de dispositifs empêchant les moustiques de suivre les signaux humains et d’entrer. De même, les pièges à moustiques aspirent les insectes lorsqu’ils s’approchent trop près, mais laissent encore s’échapper entre 50 % et 90 % d’entre eux. Beaucoup de ces dispositifs reposent encore sur des essais empiriques. Nous espérons que notre étude fournira un outil plus précis pour concevoir des méthodes de capture ou de dissuasion.

Lorsque la mère de Chris a assisté à sa soutenance de master, je lui ai demandé ce qu’elle pensait du fait que son fils se soit proposé comme appât pour les moustiques. Elle m’a répondu qu’elle en était très fière. Moi aussi — et pas seulement parce que je suis soulagé que Chris ne m’ait jamais demandé de prendre sa place dans la chambre infestée de moustiques.

The Conversation

David Hu ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Des centaines d’insectes affamés, un étudiant et une combinaison en mesh… Comment une série d’expériences aide à comprendre le vol des moustiques – https://theconversation.com/des-centaines-dinsectes-affames-un-etudiant-et-une-combinaison-en-mesh-comment-une-serie-dexperiences-aide-a-comprendre-le-vol-des-moustiques-278902

How active have Iran’s proxy groups been since the start of the war?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vincent Durac, Associate Professor, School Of Politics & International Relations, University College Dublin

One of the most notable aspects of the war in Iran so far has been the extent of Tehran’s isolation in the region. This has been exemplified not only by the widening divide between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbours, but also by the highly variable responses to the conflict by Iran’s proxy groups.

Iran has relied on a network of proxies to protect and bolster its position in the region since the earliest days of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The most important elements in this network have been Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Syria under the rule of the Assad family, Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.

However, this network is in serious disarray as a result of various conflicts in the region since late 2023. Hamas has been devastated by the Israeli onslaught that followed the October 7 terrorist attacks in southern Israel, with a succession of its leadership killed during the conflict. This has left the group unable to play a part in the Iran war.

Hezbollah, on the other hand, entered the conflict early on. The group has launched rockets, missiles and drones at Israel since March 2 in response to the killing of the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in an Israeli airstrike days earlier. But Hezbollah finds itself damaged to the point it constitutes a far greater threat to Lebanese stability than it does to Israel.

Hezbollah was subjected to an Israeli military campaign after attacking Israel following the start of the war in Gaza. Its political and military leadership were targeted, culminating in the assassination of the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in 2024. Hezbollah’s capacity to launch missiles into Israel was also degraded.

The resumption of Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel now poses a very significant threat to Lebanon on political and humanitarian levels, while being largely ineffective in Israel to date. Lebanon’s health ministry says Israeli attacks have killed 968 people since March 2. No deaths have been reported in Israel, though two Israeli soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah ambush in southern Lebanon.

The Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, announced on March 2 that Hezbollah’s actions were unlawful. He also demanded that the group hand over its weapons, and spoke of Lebanon’s willingness to engage in formal negotiations with Israel to avoid the Israeli military imposing new security arrangements on the country.

But the current conflict has exposed the Lebanese state’s limited capacity to control events in its own territory. Meanwhile, Israel has announced plans for an expanded ground campaign in southern Lebanon, fuelling fears of an extended occupation and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.

Like Hezbollah, Iran-aligned militias in Iraq joined the conflict soon after the US and Israeli assault on Iran began. They have targeted Israel, as well as US military bases in Jordan and Iraq, with drones and missiles. Iranian Kurdish groups in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq have also been attacked following reports that the US might arm them to fight the regime in Tehran.

In response, Iraqi militias have been targeted by US and Israeli airstrikes. As in Lebanon, a weak central government in Iraq is struggling to maintain a balance between domestic and external forces. Elections in November 2025 saw a coalition of Shia parties emerge as the largest bloc in the Iraqi parliament.

However, their nominee for prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has been rejected by the US. This is due to the widely-held perception that he stoked sectarian tensions when he was last in office from 2006 to 2014 and is too close to the regime in Tehran.

In the meantime, the caretaker government is struggling to contain the influence of pro-Iran militias while the war devastates Iraq’s oil sector. The Iraqi economy is heavily dependent on the sale of hydrocarbons, with oil revenues accounting for roughly 90% of government revenue. Oil production has reduced sharply since the start of the conflict.

Houthis in Yemen

The final Iranian ally of substance in the region, the Houthis, have been conspicuous by their absence from the fray. When the war in Gaza broke out in October 2023, the Houthis mounted a series of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. The group also targeted Israel with long-range missile strikes, which were largely ineffective.

The outbreak of the current war with Iran has led to protests and declarations of condemnation in Yemen, with Houthi leadership warning on March 5 that their “fingers are on the trigger”. But, so far, this has not been followed with concrete action. There are a number of possible explanations for this apparent reluctance to offer support to the regime in Tehran.

Analysts such as Nadwa al-Dawsari of the US-based Middle East Institute have suggested that Iran may be holding any intervention by the Houthis in reserve. She argues that Tehran may be doing so on the basis that longer-range missile and drone attacks against the Gulf states and Israel will prove more effective later in the conflict.

But it is also possible that Houthi leadership are fearful of the impact of US and Israeli retaliation should they become directly involved in the conflict. Previously, in August 2025, Israeli attacks killed at least 12 senior members of the Houthi leadership ranks. This included Ahmed al-Rahawi, the prime minister of the Houthi-controlled government in the Yemeni capital of Sana’a.

However, whether the Houthi leadership has the capacity to withstand Iranian pressure to enter the conflict is doubtful. So they may ultimately be dragged in, if somewhat reluctantly.

The Conversation

Vincent Durac does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How active have Iran’s proxy groups been since the start of the war? – https://theconversation.com/how-active-have-irans-proxy-groups-been-since-the-start-of-the-war-278355

A man used AI to help make a cancer vaccine for his dog – an oncologist urges caution

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University

Corona Borealis Studio/Shutterstock.com

An Australian tech entrepreneur has helped create what appears to be a made-to-measure cancer vaccine for his dog, Rosie, using artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT as part of the process.

The science behind this sounds intimidating – DNA sequencing, mRNA vaccines, “neoantigens” – but at its core, it is about reading the instructions inside a tumour and then writing a new set of instructions to help the immune system see it.

Rosie is an eight-year-old rescue Staffordshire bull terrier cross that developed aggressive mast cell cancer, a common skin cancer in dogs. She had surgery and chemotherapy, but the disease kept coming back and she ended up with large, ugly tumours on her leg.

Vets told her owner, Paul Conyngham, that she probably had only months to live. Instead of accepting that, he decided to use the tools he knew from his day job in tech – data analysis, AI and coding – and apply them to his dog’s cancer.

Decoding the tumour

The first step was to understand what made Rosie’s tumour different from her healthy cells.

Every cell in the body carries DNA – a long, chemical molecule that acts like a biological instruction manual. You can think of DNA as a very long string of letters written in a four-letter alphabet. Cancer happens when enough of those letters change, by chance or through damage, so that some cells start to grow and divide out of control.

Sequencing a tumour’s or normal cell’s DNA is essentially reading through that long string of letters and comparing it to the “normal” version to see where it has gone wrong. A lot of my own research has focused on this. Conyngham paid a university lab to sequence the DNA from Rosie’s tumour. That produced a huge file listing the mutations – the spelling mistakes in the cancer’s instruction manual – that set her tumour apart from her healthy tissues.

On their own, those files are just data. The question is what to do with them. This is where he turned to an AI chatbot. He asked it how scientists design personalised cancer vaccines and how he might go from a list of mutations to specific targets for a vaccine for Rosie.

A cancer vaccine in this context is different from the childhood vaccines we are used to. Traditional vaccines prevent infections: you give someone a harmless version or fragment of a virus or bacterium so their immune system can “learn” to recognise it in advance. A cancer vaccine, by contrast, is usually therapeutic rather than preventive. It is given to someone who already has cancer, with the aim of training their immune system to spot markers on the cancer cells that it has previously ignored and then attack them.

This is where mRNA comes in. If DNA is the master instruction book, mRNA (messenger RNA) is more like a photocopied page that gets sent to the cell’s protein-making machinery – think of it as a short piece of code that carries a single command: “make this protein”.

Some of the COVID vaccines use mRNA: they deliver a strand of mRNA that tells our cells to make the spike protein from the coronavirus, so the immune system can practise on it. The body then breaks down the mRNA; it does not change your DNA.

For a personalised cancer vaccine, scientists choose small parts of proteins that are unique to a particular tumour – so-called neoantigens – and encode them in an mRNA sequence.

When this mRNA is injected, cells take it up and briefly make those tumour-linked protein fragments. The immune system can then see these fragments and, ideally, begins to treat any cell displaying them as abnormal and dangerous. In effect, it is using mRNA to give the immune system a “most wanted” poster for that individual cancer.

With help from AI tools, Conyngham sifted through Rosie’s tumour mutations to pick out candidates that might make good neoantigens. He also used protein structure prediction software to model how some of these mutated proteins would look, trying to guess which ones would be visible to her immune system.

Crucially, he did not manufacture a vaccine in his garage. Once he had a shortlist of targets, he approached researchers at the University of New South Wales, including experts in RNA technology, who reviewed the data and designed an mRNA construct based on it. Their team turned this digital design into a physical mRNA vaccine in the lab.

It was a one-off product, made just for Rosie, encoding several of the mutations in her tumour. She then received this experimental vaccine at a veterinary research centre, with booster doses over the following months.

Reports from her vets and owner suggest that several tumours shrank markedly, her overall tumour burden fell, and her energy and behaviour improved. One resistant tumour has prompted a second round of analysis and a follow-on vaccine targeting a different set of mutations.

Promising, but not a cure

It should be noted that this is a single dog, not a controlled study, and mast cell tumours can behave unpredictably. We cannot be sure how much of Rosie’s improvement is due to the vaccine, how long it will last, or whether the same approach would help other dogs, let alone humans.

The AI did not “cure cancer” by itself. It acted as an always-available guide and assistant, but qualified scientists still had to check its work and do the hard parts in the lab.

Even so, this case is a vivid example of several ideas coming together. DNA sequencing allows you to read the specific mutations in an individual cancer. mRNA technology lets you quickly write a custom set of instructions to show those mutations to the immune system.

AI systems make the complex biology more navigable for non-experts, suggesting possible targets and explaining concepts – though their outputs still require expert scrutiny. Put those together, and something that would once have required a major pharmaceutical programme – a bespoke cancer vaccine – can now be attempted, at least experimentally, for a single animal.

For the informed public, perhaps the most important point is not that AI has magically solved cancer, but that the basic ingredients of high-end personalised medicine are becoming more accessible. A motivated dog owner can now order tumour DNA sequencing, ask an AI to help interpret it, and partner with an academic lab to turn that interpretation into an mRNA vaccine.

A significant scientific and ethical challenge ahead is to develop methods for testing such approaches properly, protect patients and animals from false hope and unsafe experiments, and determine who should have access if they prove to be effective.

The Conversation

Justin Stebbing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A man used AI to help make a cancer vaccine for his dog – an oncologist urges caution – https://theconversation.com/a-man-used-ai-to-help-make-a-cancer-vaccine-for-his-dog-an-oncologist-urges-caution-278735

Why ‘decoupling’ energy emissions from economic growth underpins the green transition

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Farooq Sher, Senior Lecturer, Department of Engineering, School of Science and Technology, Nottingham Trent University

Drax power station in North Yorkshire, England. btimagery/Shutterstock

When people talk about tackling climate change, the images are often solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars. But the bigger question is whether economies can grow without releasing more carbon. This hinges on “decoupling” – the idea that economic growth can be separated from greenhouse gas emissions.

At first glance, that sounds almost magical. How can a country expand without using more energy or producing more emissions? Yet decoupling is already happening. According to analysis from a thinktank called the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, economies responsible for roughly 92% of global GDP now show some form of decoupling. This means that emissions either rise more slowly than output or fall while GDP grows. So the historical link between growth and emissions can be weakened.

This is not abstract theory. In the UK, greenhouse gas emissions were around 54% lower in 2024 than in 1990 while the economy expanded. Falling emissions alongside rising GDP show that growth no longer always equals more pollution and that net zero targets could be achieved without forcing economic stagnation.

However, there is a distinction to make. This distinction is between relative decoupling and absolute decoupling. Relative decoupling is when growth slows relative to economic growth. Absolute decoupling, which is required to achieve net zero, is a reduction in emissions while economic growth increases. This is the only decoupling that can help achieve climate targets.

Earth systems scientist Mark Maslin explain the concept of net zero.

One way decoupling can occur is through a transformation in the energy sector. This is necessary to move towards renewable electricity sources. This is because there has been an increase in the use of clean energy sources relative to fossil fuels in some countries. However, this is not enough, as there is a need to make better use of clean energy through an improved grid system to avoid energy waste.

Energy efficiency is another major component. Across transport, buildings and industry, measures such as better insulation, efficient equipment and smarter process control can cut energy use for the same output. According to the International Energy Agency, energy intensity (the energy needed per unit of economic output) needs sustained declines of about 4% per year this decade to meet net zero goals. This shows that significant efficiency gains remain achievable.

Another important factor is technological innovation. For example, clean hydrogen, carbon capture, smart grids, and the electrification of transport can help an economy grow while emissions fall. However, it is only possible if it is integrated into the entire system, rather than being seen as a separate technology. It is similar to traffic flow. For example, building more roads is not a solution if traffic is a problem. Similarly, deploying renewables is not a solution if the entire energy system is not seen as a single system.

Zooming out and focusing in

Decoupling is not automatic. For example, sectors such as aviation, cement, steel, chemicals, electricity and heat are among the most carbon-intensive parts of industrial manufacturing. These are widely considered “hard-to-abate” sectors, as their emissions remain closely tied to high-temperature processes and fossil fuel use.

Even in easier-to-abate sectors, such as electricity generation and road transport, there can be a rebound effect. This means that efficiency gains or lower energy costs lead to increased overall demand. To overcome these challenges, it is critical to focus on the performance of the entire system.

The good news is that decoupling is becoming increasingly visible. There is evidence of this across many economies, including the UK, US, Germany and France, where emissions have declined while GDP has continued to grow. In the UK, emissions have fallen while GDP has grown. This indicates that growth and climate protection need not be in conflict, and that good engineering and system design can support both.

energy plant, green trees
Decoupling economic growth from reliance on fossil fuels is a major undertaking but must become the norm.
Quality Stock Arts/Shutterstock

To deliver net zero by 2050, absolute decoupling must become the norm. This means going beyond renewable targets and considering system design, infrastructure, flexibility, efficiency and integration across energy, transport and industry.

Combined with policy and investment approaches that reward lower carbon intensity, these strategies could substantially cut cumulative emissions. For example, if global energy intensity improves by around 4% per year through 2035 (meaning economies use less energy to produce the same level of output, such as through better building insulation, more efficient industrial equipment and electrification of transport) billions of tonnes of CO₂ could be avoided while GDP continues to grow.

Similarly, if countries achieve reductions comparable to the UK’s 54% cut in emissions since 1990 – which was driven largely by phasing out coal in power generation, expanding renewables, improving energy efficiency and shifting towards lower-carbon fuels – net zero pathways could become far more feasible. This makes decoupling a practical roadmap for the green transition.

The Conversation

Farooq Sher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why ‘decoupling’ energy emissions from economic growth underpins the green transition – https://theconversation.com/why-decoupling-energy-emissions-from-economic-growth-underpins-the-green-transition-278568

À la base du bonheur finlandais, le sisu une philosophie du froid

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Xavier Pavie, Philosophe, Professeur à l’ESSEC, Directeur de programme au Collège International de Philosophie, ESSEC

Connaissez-vous le sisu ? Ce drôle de mot désigne une philosophie développée en Finlande qui se confond avec le caractère national. Cette forme de sagesse, en résonance avec les exercices spirituels venus d’autres traditions, pourrait expliquer pourquoi une fois encore la Finlande est classée comme un des pays les plus heureux au monde. Cette forme de sagesse proposant de se concentrer sur l’essentiel pour mieux en jouir, pourrait-elle inspirer nos manières de concevoir l’avenir ? En particulier, le rapport particulier que le sisu entretient avec la Nature pourrait-il nourrir nos attentes en matière de changement climatique ? Découvrez cette philosophie qui invite à « faire avec » plutôt que de s’épuiser à « s’indigner contre »…


Mes travaux ont consisté à repérer la présence d’exercices spirituels dans la société contemporaine. Cette expression désigne toute pratique destinée à transformer, en soi-même ou chez les autres, la manière de vivre et de voir les choses. Elle renvoie à la fois à un discours et à une mise en œuvre : une discipline visant à mieux vivre, à mieux être, sans être soumis à des désirs jamais assouvis. Cette notion s’élabore dans les écoles de l’Antiquité (stoïcisme, épicurisme, cynisme) qui développent des techniques (ascèse, méditation, écriture, examen de conscience, attention au corps) pour atteindre un mieux-être. Toutes placent au centre la recherche de sérénité, dans la conscience de la brièveté de la vie et des épreuves qui la traversent.

Si les exercices spirituels émergent dans la philosophie antique, ils se transforment avec le christianisme avant de réapparaître à la Renaissance, chez Érasme et Montaigne, puis chez Descartes, Rousseau, Kant ou Shaftesbury. À l’époque contemporaine, ils se prolongent chez Emerson, Thoreau, Wittgenstein, Cavell ou Foucault, sans toutefois s’inscrire dans des écoles structurées, laissant place à des formes plus diffuses.

J’ai ainsi étudié des mouvements contemporains et historiques reprenant certains traits de ces traditions : communautés comme Auroville ou Christiania, expériences comme Monte Verità, ou encore pratiques artistiques (dadaïsme, Fluxus) et corporelles (Alexander, Feldenkrais, naturisme). Si les exercices spirituels persistent aujourd’hui, ils demeurent discrets et ne constituent plus véritablement une philosophie comme mode de vie. C’est précisément l’inverse qui se produit dans le Nord européen, plus précisément en Finlande, où s’est établie depuis des temps anciens une philosophie comme art de vivre sous le nom de « sisu ».




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Sisu, une philosophie comme art de vivre

Si le « sisu » n’a pas de traduction littérale dans une langue autre que la sienne, il peut s’entendre comme une articulation entre le stoïcisme, l’épicurisme et le cynisme. C’est en effet, à la fois une philosophie de l’assentiment, de la recherche de plaisirs simples et de l’autosuffisance. Le sisu ne se définit pas comme un héroïsme spectaculaire, mais comme une disposition à continuer lorsque nos ressources perçues semblent épuisées. Selon la formule de la chercheuse Emilia Lahti, le sisu « commence là où notre force perçue s’arrête » : il n’est pas l’endurance ordinaire, mais l’énergie qui se manifeste dans les moments où l’abandon paraît rationnel.

Stoïcien, le sisu l’est d’abord par son rapport à l’adversité. Il ne prend ombrage ni de la dureté du climat, ni de l’histoire marquée par la guerre et la pénurie ; il assume que certaines circonstances excèdent notre contrôle et exige une discipline intérieure capable de tenir face à elles. Mais cette fermeté n’est pas une insensibilité.

Absence ou abstention d’émotions ?

L’un des malentendus les plus répandus en Finlande consiste précisément à confondre le sisu avec une absence d’émotion. Or, si la crise impose parfois de suspendre l’expression des affects, ceux-ci doivent être reconnus et élaborés. Le sisu n’est pas un état permanent : « ce n’est pas un lieu où l’on vit, mais un lieu que l’on visite ». En cela, il relève moins d’une dureté continue que d’une capacité à entrer, ponctuellement, dans une zone d’intensité morale.

Épicurien ensuite, le sisu s’enracine dans une forme de sobriété heureuse. Les enquêtes sur le bonheur placent régulièrement la Finlande parmi les premiers pays du monde, mais ce bonheur ne se comprend ni comme accumulation ni comme ostentation. Il se définit par la paix, le silence, l’ordre, l’indépendance, la fonctionnalité et, surtout, le temps passé dans la nature.

La nature comme ressource existentielle

Celle-ci n’est pas un décor, mais une ressource existentielle : elle centre, apaise, restaure. La nature agit comme une sorte d’« antidépresseur naturel » et comme un lieu de reconnexion à une source plus profonde de force. Le sisu se nourrit aussi d’une économie du désir et du langage : parler lorsque l’on a quelque chose à dire, se contenter de peu, privilégier l’authenticité à la performance.

Enfin, cynique au sens ancien du terme, le sisu valorise l’autosuffisance et la cohérence entre les paroles et les actes. Il rejette l’exhibition de la bravoure, l’autopromotion. « Let your actions do the talking » – que les actes parlent. La franchise finlandaise, souvent perçue comme brusquerie, s’inscrit dans cette éthique de la droiture. Être ferme, mais bienveillant ; défendre ses convictions sans écraser autrui ; préférer l’intégrité à la flatterie. Le sisu ne se mesure pas à l’intensité des déclarations, mais à la constance des gestes.

Autonomie et solidarité

Il serait pourtant réducteur d’en faire une vertu strictement individuelle. Si le sisu s’active dans l’épreuve personnelle, il est aussi une énergie collective. L’histoire finlandaise, notamment la guerre d’Hiver de 1939-40, a élevé le sisu au rang de principe national, mais ce mythe fondateur ne célèbre pas seulement le courage solitaire : il souligne la capacité d’un peuple à tenir ensemble. « Nous sommes plus forts ensemble que seuls » pourrait en être la maxime. L’importance accordée à l’égalité, à la négociation collective et à la coopération sociale, montre que le sisu circule, s’encourage et se renforce mutuellement.

Ainsi compris, le sisu n’est ni une simple résilience ni une austérité morale. Il est une éthique située : une manière d’habiter l’adversité sans se laisser définir par elle, de chercher des plaisirs simples sans renoncer à l’effort, et d’assumer une autonomie qui n’exclut pas la solidarité. Entre retenue et détermination, silence et action, il dessine une forme de force discrète, profondément moderne dans des sociétés saturées de bruit, d’excès et de mise en scène.

Le sisu peut-il exister loin de la Finlande ?

Cette philosophie finlandaise pourrait-elle être appropriée dans un contexte français ? La France traverse une période marquée par une tension : d’un côté, une intensité expressive forte (débats permanents, conflictualité médiatique, mise en scène politique continue) et, de l’autre, un sentiment diffus d’impuissance face aux crises écologiques, sociales et institutionnelles.

Là où le sisu valorise l’économie du langage et la primauté de l’acte sur la déclaration, notre culture accorde souvent une place centrale à la parole, à la posture et à la dramatisation. Il ne s’agit pas de dévaluer cette tradition rhétorique, constitutive de notre histoire intellectuelle, mais de se demander si elle ne gagnerait pas à être équilibrée par une éthique de la retenue et de la constance.

Arte 2025.

Dans le contexte des transitions écologiques notamment, le sisu offre une piste précieuse, puisqu’il propose une manière d’habiter la contrainte sans la vivre uniquement comme frustration. L’histoire finlandaise, marquée par le climat rude et la pénurie, a forgé une disposition à faire avec, plutôt qu’à s’indigner contre. Appliquée à nos propres défis – sobriété énergétique, transformation des modes de vie, réorganisation des systèmes productifs – une telle attitude pourrait nourrir une culture de l’ajustement lucide plutôt que de la résistance nostalgique. Le sisu ne consiste pas à nier la difficulté, mais à accepter qu’elle fasse partie du réel et à mobiliser une énergie orientée vers l’action.

La puissance des engagements ordinaires

La France pourrait également trouver dans le sisu un correctif à une conception parfois héroïque et individualisée de la réussite. La tradition française valorise la figure du grand homme, du leader charismatique, du moment spectaculaire. Or le sisu, tel qu’il se manifeste dans la culture finlandaise, privilégie une force moins visible : celle qui se déploie sans ego excessif, sans recherche de reconnaissance immédiate. Il rappelle que la solidité d’une société ne repose pas uniquement sur des figures exceptionnelles, mais sur une multitude d’engagements ordinaires, tenus dans la durée.

Ce que la France peut attendre d’une telle philosophie n’est donc pas une conversion culturelle, mais l’adoption d’un nouveau point de vue. Le sisu invite à penser la force autrement, comme une endurance silencieuse, comme une capacité à entrer, lorsque les circonstances l’exigent, dans un état d’effort lucide. C’est une manière de « tenir » sans se durcir, de persévérer sans se glorifier.

Dans un moment historique où les crises semblent s’enchaîner et où la tentation du découragement ou de la radicalisation est forte, cette philosophie comme mode de vie pourrait constituer une ressource. Elle suggère que la transformation ne passe pas uniquement par des ruptures spectaculaires, mais aussi par une multitude de gestes constants, sobres et cohérents. À ce titre, le sisu n’est pas tant un exotisme nordique qu’un miroir critique pour nos propres habitudes morales et politiques.

The Conversation

Xavier Pavie ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. À la base du bonheur finlandais, le sisu une philosophie du froid – https://theconversation.com/a-la-base-du-bonheur-finlandais-le-sisu-une-philosophie-du-froid-277312

Power outages in heat waves and storms can threaten the lives of medical device users – we looked at who is most at risk

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Matthew D. Dean, Assistant Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine

Many older adults rely on electric-powered medical equipment, such as portable oxygen and nebulizers that help them breathe. Westend61 via Getty Images

When the power goes out and stays off for hours, the result can be more than just a hassle – for millions of Americans who rely on medical equipment, losing electricity can become a medical emergency.

Your neighbor might rely on an oxygen concentrator to breathe – a machine the size of a carry-on bag that hums quietly through the night. Or they might need a CPAP – continuous positive airway pressure – machine to keep them breathing safely in their sleep, or a ventilator.

Most home medical devices run on backup batteries that last only 3 to 8 hours. Yet people in over half of U.S. counties experienced at least one outage lasting more than eight hours between 2018 and 2021. Power outages are becoming more common in the U.S., too. They grew 9% more frequent and lasted 56% longer between 2014 and 2023, driven by severe weather, winter storms, hurricanes and wildfires linked to climate change.

Studies following major blackouts show an increase in disease-related deaths, including a 25% rise during a three-day blackout in New York City in August 2003. Emergency rooms can become overwhelmed with device users seeking backup power and medical care.

But not everyone with a medical device faces the same risks during a power outage. In a new study published in the journal Environmental Research: Health, we show which groups need the most help and who is slipping through the cracks in life-threatening ways.

Four very different realities

We analyzed data from more than 2,600 households reporting the use of medical devices, drawn from a nationally representative federal survey of nearly 18,500 American homes. Using statistical modeling, we identified four distinct groups, each facing a very different situation when the power goes out.

About 60% of medically dependent households are financially stable homeowners. They face outages, but they are the most likely group to have backup generators.

A second group, roughly 20%, are homeowners who struggle to pay their energy bills and sometimes skip medicine or meals to keep the lights on, but who also tend to have backup power sources. This group had the highest likelihood of experiencing dayslong power outages in the past year, but was also more likely to have a generator or access to solar power than the average American.

A third group is apartment renters who can afford their electricity bills but are typically unable to make long-term upgrades for more resilient power supplies. For example, they can’t install solar panels or add permanent backup power because those decisions belong to their landlord, not them.

A backpack-size machine with a tube to a breathing mask.
Oxygen machines can be portable, but when the power goes out for hours, users need to be able to find a place to recharge the batteries.
Chingyunsong/istock/Getty Images Plus

The fourth class is the smallest, roughly 7% of medical device households, and by far the most at risk. These are mostly low-income urban renters, and they face two compounding problems: They struggle to pay their electricity bills every month, and they have almost no backup resources when the power goes out.

Nearly 58% of these at-risk renters said they had received a disconnection notice from their utility within the previous year. One in eight had needed medical attention because their home got too hot or too cold. This group is also disproportionately Black or Hispanic.

Our findings confirm what researchers have long suspected: Energy insecurity among medical device users is deeply tied to income, housing type and race. Our study also shows the importance of understanding where people are both energy insecure and less likely to have access to backup power sources during outages.

What communities are doing today

Some communities are finding ways to tackle pieces of this problem.

Most utility companies maintain lists of households with medical devices, and they are supposed to notify customers ahead of power shutoffs and prioritize restoring power to their homes. However, studies show that these registries capture only a fraction of the people who qualify.

If medical device users were instead automatically enrolled during a doctor’s visit, or if landlords were required to notify new tenants of these registries, those steps could help reach more people.

Portable battery programs, like those run by California’s largest utilities, provide free or low-cost rechargeable batteries and a solar panel kit to homeowners and renters with medical devices who are most at risk of power shutoffs. Contractors can work with households to choose an appropriate battery to ensure it isn’t too heavy or difficult to transport if evacuating because of a wildfire or other disaster.

As climate change makes blackouts longer and more frequent – and as federal low-income energy assistance programs face cuts – providing help to residents falls increasingly on states and cities. Knowing which households face the greatest risks can make it easier to target aid to those in need.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Power outages in heat waves and storms can threaten the lives of medical device users – we looked at who is most at risk – https://theconversation.com/power-outages-in-heat-waves-and-storms-can-threaten-the-lives-of-medical-device-users-we-looked-at-who-is-most-at-risk-276501

Overconfidence is how wars are lost − lessons from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine for the war in Iran were ignored

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Monica Duffy Toft, Professor of International Politics and Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

Plumes of smoke and fire rise after debris from an intercepted Iranian drone struck an oil facility, according to authorities, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, on March 14, 2026. AP Photo/Altaf Qadri

Wars are rarely lost first on the battlefield. They are lost in leaders’ minds − when leaders misread what they and their adversaries can do, when their confidence substitutes for comprehension, and when the last war is mistaken for the next one.

The Trump administration’s miscalculation of Iran is not an anomaly. It is the latest entry in one of the oldest and most lethal traditions in international politics: the catastrophic gap between what leaders believe going in and what war actually delivers.

I’m a scholar of international security, civil wars and U.S. foreign policy, and author of the book “Dying by the Sword,” which examines why the United States repeatedly reaches for military solutions and why such interventions rarely produce durable peace. The deeper problem with the U.S. war in Iran, as I see it, was overconfidence bred by recent success.

Dismissed concerns

Before the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. escalated, Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed concerns about oil market disruption, noting that prices had barely moved during the 12-day war in June 2025 between Israel and Iran. Other senior officials agreed.

What followed was significant: Iranian-aimed missile and drone barrages against U.S. bases, Arab capitals and Israeli population centers. Then Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes daily − not with a naval blockade, not with mines or massed anti-ship missiles, but with cheap drones.

A few strikes in the vicinity of the strait were enough. Insurers and shipping companies decided the transit was unsafe. Tanker traffic dropped to zero, although the occasional ship has made it through recently. Analysts are calling it the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s oil embargo.

President Donald Trump expressed anger on March 17, 2026, at allies who did not agree to help the U.S. force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has since vowed to keep the strait closed. U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, reported after a closed-door briefing that the administration had no plan for the strait and did not know how to get it safely back open.

With no embassy in Tehran since 1979, the U.S. relies heavily for intelligence on CIA networks of questionable quality and Israeli assets who have their own country’s interests in mind. So the U.S. did not anticipate that Iran had rebuilt and dispersed significant military capacity since June 2025, nor that it would strike neighbors across the region, including Azerbaijan, widening the conflict well beyond the Persian Gulf.

The war has since reached the Indian Ocean, where a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian frigate 2,000 miles from the theater of war, off the coast of Sri Lanka – just days after the ship had participated in Indian navy exercises alongside 74 nations, including the U.S.

The diplomatic damage to Washington’s relationships with India and Sri Lanka, two countries whose cooperation is increasingly important as the United States seeks partners to manage and mitigate Iran’s blockade, was entirely foreseeable. Washington has put them in a difficult position, with India choosing diplomacy with Iran to secure passage for its vessels and Sri Lanka opting to retain its neutrality, underscoring its vulnerable position.

But U.S. planners didn’t foresee any of this.

The wrong lesson from Venezuela

The swift military intervention by the U.S. in Venezuela in January 2026 produced rapid results with minimal blowback − appearing to validate the administration’s faith in coercive action.

But clean victories are dangerous teachers.

They inflate what I call in my teaching the “hubris/humility index” − the more a leadership overestimates its own abilities, underestimates the adversary’s and dismisses uncertainty, the higher the score and the more likely disaster will ensue. Clean victories inflate the index precisely when skepticism is most needed, because they suggest the next adversary will be as manageable as the last.

Political scientist Robert Jervis demonstrated decades ago that misperceptions in international relations are not random but follow patterns. Leaders tend to project their own cost-benefit logic onto opponents who do not share it. They also fall into “availability bias,” allowing the most recent operation to stand in for the next.

The higher the hubris/humility index, the less likely there is to be the kind of strategic empathy that might ask: How does Tehran see this? What does a regime that believes its survival is at stake actually do? History shows that such a regime escalates, improvises and takes risks that appear irrational from an outside perspective but are entirely rational from within.

Recent cases reveal this unmistakable pattern.

The United States in Vietnam, 1965–1968

American war planners believed material superiority would force the communists in Hanoi to surrender.

It didn’t.

American firepower alone didn’t lead to military defeat, much less political control. The Tet Offensive in 1968 – when North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces launched coordinated attacks across South Vietnam – shattered the official U.S. narrative that the war was nearly won and that there was “light at the end of the tunnel.”

Athough the U.S. and South Vietnamese forces ultimately repelled the attacks, their scale and surprise caused the public not to trust official statements, accelerating the erosion of public trust and decisively turning American opinion against the war.

The U.S. loss in Vietnam didn’t occur on a single battlefield, but through strategic and political unraveling. Despite overwhelming superiority, Washington was incapable of building a stable, legitimate South Vietnamese government or recognizing the grit and resilience of the North Vietnamese forces. Eventually, with mounting casualties and large-scale protests at home, U.S. forces withdrew, ceding control of Saigon to North Vietnamese forces in 1975.

A helicopter taking off from the roof of a building.
In this April 29, 1975, file photo, a helicopter lifts off from the U.S. Embassy in Saigon, South Vietnam, during a last-minute evacuation of authorized personnel and civilians.
AP Photo.

The U.S. failure was conceptual and cultural, not informational. American analysts simply couldn’t picture the war from their opponent’s perspective.

Afghanistan: Deadly assumptions

The Soviet Union in Afghanistan in 1979 and the United States in Afghanistan after 2001 conducted two different wars but held the same deadly assumption: that external military force can quickly impose political order in a fractured society strongly resistant to foreign control.

In both cases, great powers believed their abilities would outweigh local complexities. In both cases, the war evolved faster − and lasted far longer − than their strategies could adapt.

Russia, Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz

This is the case that should most haunt Washington.

Ukraine demonstrated that a materially weaker defender can impose huge costs on a stronger attacker through battlefield innovation: cheap drones, decentralized adaptation, real-time intelligence, and the creative use of terrain and chokepoints to find asymmetrical advantages. The U.S. watched it all unfold in real time for four years and helped pay for it.

Iran was also watching − and the Strait of Hormuz is the proof.

Iran didn’t need a navy to close the world’s most important energy chokepoint. It needed drones, the same cheap, asymmetric technology Ukraine has used to blunt Russia’s onslaught, deployed not on a land front but against the insurance calculus of the global shipping industry.

Washington, which had underwritten much of that playbook in Ukraine, apparently never asked the obvious question: What happens when the other side has been taking notes? That is not a failure of U.S. intelligence. It is a failure of strategic imagination − exactly what the hubris/humility index is designed to highlight.

Iran does not need to defeat the U.S. conventionally. It needs only to raise costs, exploit chokepoints and wait for a fracture among U.S. allies and domestic political opposition to force a fake U.S. declaration of victory or a genuine U.S. withdrawal.

Notably, Iran has kept the strait selectively open to Turkish, Indian and Saudi vessels, rewarding neutral countries and punishing U.S. allies, driving wedges through the coalition.

Historian Geoffrey Blainey famously argued that wars start when both sides hold incompatible beliefs about power and only end when reality forces those beliefs to align.

That alignment is now happening, at great cost, in the Persian Gulf and beyond. The Trump administration scored high on the hubris index at exactly the moment when it most needed humility.

The Conversation

Monica Duffy Toft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Overconfidence is how wars are lost − lessons from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine for the war in Iran were ignored – https://theconversation.com/overconfidence-is-how-wars-are-lost-lessons-from-vietnam-afghanistan-and-ukraine-for-the-war-in-iran-were-ignored-278604

Why Colorado River negotiations stalled, and how they could resume with the possibility of agreement

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Karen Schlatter, Director, Colorado Water Center, Colorado State University

The reservoir behind the Glen Canyon Dam is extremely low. Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The seven U.S. states that make up the Colorado River basin are struggling to agree on how best to manage the river’s water as its supply dwindles due to climate change and a period of prolonged drought. Their negotiations, which are not open to the public, missed a Feb. 14, 2026, deadline the federal government had established, after which federal officials said they would impose their own plan.

The federal government has not yet done so, but the prospect of such an action is not good news for the nearly 40 million people who depend on the Colorado River for water, energy, agriculture and recreation, nor for the estimated US$1.4 trillion in economic activity the river supports.

We have led or participated in complex water management discussions from the river’s headwaters in Colorado to its delta in Mexico and elsewhere in the arid Southwest and around the world. Even on less contentious issues, the keys to success involve learning together, understanding one another’s interests, working through conflict and developing inclusive solutions for diverse participants. And that works best with an outside facilitator.

The five most common sources of conflict between people are values, data, relationships, interests and structure. The current Colorado River negotiations include all five. We believe a process designed and facilitated by negotiation experts could help break the logjam.

We recognize it can be very hard to reach an agreement when what’s at stake are countless lives, massive amounts of money, enormous quantities of hydroelectric power and not nearly enough water.

But compromise on Colorado River management is possible and, in fact, was achieved to curb California’s water use in the 2000s, to negotiate an interim agreement to coordinate operations at the Lake Mead and Lake Powell reservoirs in 2007, and to enact contingency plans to manage drought in 2019. But this time around, circumstances are different.

Previous negotiations

The negotiations leading up to those agreements were often facilitated by officials from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation who focused on reaching broad agreements on general principles and concepts before delving into details. Federal staff also actively guided key agreements and provided the science and computer models to make well-informed decisions. And the states’ negotiators knew the Department of Interior would act unilaterally to make damaging cuts to water supply if states couldn’t come to their own agreement.

The negotiators for the states had long-standing relationships and built trust by frequently communicating outside formal meetings and seeking to listen to and understand other states’ perspectives, even if they didn’t agree.

The states also agreed to use the bureau’s computer model for analyzing scenarios of climate change and management decisions. That meant all the negotiators were looking at the same data when delving into possible options. And the political and social environment was less polarized than today.

The current situation

In this round of negotiations, federal leadership has been lagging. The Department of the Interior has not made clear what the consequences might be for the states if they fail to agree. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has been without a permanent commissioner since President Donald Trump retook office in January 2025.

And federal staff have only recently begun helping to facilitate the discussions.

The states are fractured into subgroups, according to whether they are in the river’s Upper Basin – Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico – or the Lower Basin, which includes Arizona, Nevada and California. Each basin group holds strong positions and has generally been unwilling to shift.

Each basin group is using a different set of assumptions for the bureau’s computer model to explore options. And the discussion often gets stuck on details, which prevents progress toward broader agreements.

In addition, the political context has shifted significantly, with increased polarization and politicization of the issues, creating barriers to effective dialogue and deliberation. Today, compromise can seem unattainable.

But those relatively new challenges to Colorado River compromise are not an excuse for failure.

A group of people sit around a table in a formal meeting room.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, center between flags, meets with governors and representatives of the seven Colorado River basin states in January 2026.
U.S. Department of the Interior via X

A way forward?

The current negotiations have all been done behind closed doors. From talking with people involved in the negotiations, we understand the negotiators have been left to set their own agendas and meeting plans and conduct their own communications and follow-up, with no formal facilitators.

It’s reasonable to expect the negotiators to be ready to represent their states’ interests, working through an incredibly complicated landscape of hydrology, climate and management scenario modeling, water law and administration, and politics. But we believe it’s unreasonable – and unrealistic and unfair – to expect them to also be experts at designing and facilitating an effective process for sorting out their differences.

Federal officials are not necessarily the best people to run the process either. And if the agency that ultimately needs to approve any deal is the one leading the process, real or perceived biases about the states or key issues in the agreement could further complicate the discussions.

We believe that agreement between the seven states is still possible. It may be less effective to bring in a third-party facilitator at this stage in the negotiation process, though, because of the degraded trust, hardened positions and shortage of time.

One possible outcome is that the Bureau of Reclamation will select and enforce one of the five management alternatives it outlined in January 2026. But that could lead to decades of litigation going up to the Supreme Court. No one wins in this scenario.

A more hopeful possibility is that the bureau adopts short-term rules that would give the states another chance to negotiate a longer-term deal – ideally with an unbiased third-party facilitator for support.

A collaborative and consensus-based planning process in the Yakima River Basin in Washington state in the early 2010s is evidence that while nobody gets everything they want in a negotiated agreement, “if they can (all) get something, that’s really the basis of the plan,” as a Washington state official told The New York Times.

The Conversation

Sharon B. Megdal is principal investigator on multiple grants and contracts, none of which funded or influenced the content of this essay. Megdal served as an elected member of the Central Arizona Project Board of Directors from 2009 through 2020.

Karen Schlatter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why Colorado River negotiations stalled, and how they could resume with the possibility of agreement – https://theconversation.com/why-colorado-river-negotiations-stalled-and-how-they-could-resume-with-the-possibility-of-agreement-278029

Federal judge temporarily blocks RFK Jr.’s vaccine agenda – an epidemiologist answers questions parents may have

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Katrine L. Wallace, Epidemiologist, University of Illinois Chicago

A lawsuit brought by six medical organizations seeks to block several changes that federal health officials made to vaccine policy. Jackyenjoyphotography/Moment via Getty Images

Public health advocates have largely applauded a Massachusetts judge’s ruling on March 16, 2026, to temporarily block major changes to vaccine policy made by the Department of Health and Human Services since 2025.

The ruling pauses two major actions ushered in by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. since he stepped into the role. First, it blocks Kennedy’s restructuring of a key vaccine panel called the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices in June 2025. Second, it suspends HHS’s overhaul of the childhood vaccine schedule in January 2026, which cut the number of routine vaccinations children are recommended to receive from 17 to 11.

As an epidemiologist who studies vaccine hesitancy and a public-facing science communicator, I view these HHS actions as extremely damaging to public health, and I am relieved they have been paused, at least while legal proceedings are ongoing.

However, I also worry that this back-and-forth is detrimental to trust in science, especially for families who are already uneasy about vaccinating their kids or feel hesitant to do so.

What exactly happened?

The March 16 decision follows a lawsuit originally brought in July 2025 by six medical organizations, including the American Academy of Pediatrics. The medical organizations argued that HHS’s changes were implemented without following established legal and scientific processes.

The ruling seems to align with that view, concluding that the government’s overhaul of the vaccine committee likely “fails to comport with governing law” and that its changes to the vaccine schedule were “arbitrary and capricious.”

The judge’s action suggests that the court believes the plaintiffs are likely to succeed in showing that the HHS changes violated federal law.

A temporary ruling reverses changes to the childhood vaccine schedule while the case against HHS proceeds.

The ruling returns recommendations on the childhood vaccine schedule – made by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one of HHS’s primary divisions – to their pre–June 2025 status while the case proceeds. It also blocks HHS’s replacement of members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which reviews evidence and develops recommendations that guide vaccine-related decisions by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The ruling effectively pauses the vaccine committee’s work. The members appointed by Kennedy cannot serve at the moment, and the previous members do not automatically return, leaving the committee inactive for now.

Officials from HHS have indicated that they are likely to appeal the ruling.

Does the ruling change people’s ability to access vaccines?

Not at the moment, because right now nothing has changed about what vaccines children should receive. Pediatricians should be following the long-standing vaccine schedule as it existed before the HHS’s change in June 2025. Most physicians already are, having followed the American Academy of Pediatrics’ decision not to back HHS’s revised schedule.

Additionally, private insurers as well as federal health programs such as Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program and Vaccines for Children had already agreed to continue covering all the vaccines through 2026, even before the judge intervened.

From a health economics perspective, data shows that the downstream costs of treating vaccine-preventable illnesses are much higher than the cost of reimbursing vaccines, so insurance companies may be motivated to continue covering them.

Moving forward, however, the ongoing court case could affect vaccine availability because many insurance companies and public programs rely on recommendations from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to determine which vaccines are covered or provided at no cost.

If your children are behind on any vaccines, it would be a good idea to get them now, given the uncertainty.

What effect might the ruling have longer term?

It’s important to remember that even though policy shifts in vaccine recommendations can be confusing, the data on the safety and efficacy of childhood vaccines has not changed. There were no safety alerts or new clinical trials that precipitated HHS’s change to the vaccine schedule.

Even with the prior recommendations back in place, however, all the back-and-forth in the headlines may create confusion for parents. Mistrust of vaccines and public health is at an all-time high, fueled by disinformation, poor communication on the part of public health agencies, and other factors that arose mostly during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Parents have long considered health agencies such as the CDC to be trustworthy but increasingly look upon them with skepticism. A survey in January 2026 showed public trust in federal health agencies has declined following HHS’s changes to the childhood vaccine schedule.

Immunization rates, meanwhile, are on the decline, particularly for measles. An analysis released by Reuters on March 18, 2026, of vaccination data from Michigan suggests the number of toddlers receiving routine vaccines fell sharply from January 2025 to January 2026, and that Kennedy’s attack on vaccines influenced parents’ decisions to forgo them.

Rebuilding trust in vaccines and public health will take time and will require consistent, transparent communication and strong engagement between clinicians and families. The court ruling potentially represents an initial step in that process.

For parents with questions about vaccines, the best source of information remains their child’s pediatrician. Parents can also look to evidence-based vaccine schedules maintained by health groups such as the American Academy of Pediatrics.

The Conversation

Katrine L. Wallace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Federal judge temporarily blocks RFK Jr.’s vaccine agenda – an epidemiologist answers questions parents may have – https://theconversation.com/federal-judge-temporarily-blocks-rfk-jr-s-vaccine-agenda-an-epidemiologist-answers-questions-parents-may-have-278709

‘Project Hail Mary’ explores unique forms of life in space – 5 essential reads on searching for aliens that look nothing like life on Earth

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mary Magnuson, Associate Science Editor, The Conversation

The universe is filled with countless galaxies, stars and planets. Humans may one day discover extraterrestrial life. ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA, image processing by J.-C. Cuillandre (CEA Paris-Saclay), G. Anselmi

Project Hail Mary,” the movie adaptation to Andy Weir’s 2021 novel about a science teacher attempting to save the Earth from sun-eating microbes, was released in March 2026 to stellar ratings from critics and audiences alike. The movie explores a few unique forms that extraterrestrial life could take, from space microorganisms that produce both infrared light and an unfathomable amount of energy, to rocklike aliens that live under crushing pressure and breathe ammonia.

Over the past decade, scientists have come up with a variety of frameworks to guide their search for life in the universe. While it’s most convenient to start looking for life using the knowledge that biologists have about life on Earth, scientists have also begun integrating broader conceptions of life, including life that perhaps evolved in different chemical environments.

To expand on the idea that life out in space might look nothing like life on Earth, here are five articles The Conversation U.S. rounded up from our archives, and written by astronomers and astrobiologists.

1. Why base the search on life on Earth?

Astronomers participating in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence typically start by identifying potentially habitable planets. And to do that, they look for what sustains life on Earth: water.

Planets that are close enough to their Sun that liquid water wouldn’t freeze, but far enough away that it wouldn’t evaporate, fall into what’s called the Goldilocks Zone. But why base the search on water, which complex life on Earth uses to survive, if an extraterrestrial life-form might use different chemistry?

Cole Mathis, a physicist and astrobiologist at Arizona State University who studies complex adaptive systems, explained that out of convenience, astronomers start by looking for signals similar to those produced by life on Earth.

Detecting chemical signatures using the instruments on telescopes is tricky – it’s like playing hide-and-seek, but you’re outside the house and can only peer in through the window. You might as well start by ruling out the easy and more obvious hiding spots.

A diagram showing a small planet passing in front of a star, and the brightness level dipping when it blocks the star's light
By measuring the depth of the dip in brightness and knowing the size of the star, scientists can determine the size or radius of the planet.
NASA Ames

Missions to Mars have looked for signs of photosynthesis – the process by which plants take in energy – and telescopes peering deep into space look for oxygen, which organisms on Earth release into the atmosphere.

“Most astronomers and astrobiologists know that if we only look for life that’s like Earth life, we might miss the signs of aliens that are really different,” Mathis wrote. “But honestly, we’ve never detected aliens before, so it’s hard to know where to start. When you don’t know what to do, starting somewhere is usually better than nowhere.”




Read more:
Why do astronomers look for signs of life on other planets based on what life is like on Earth?


2. Finding patterns of purpose

Sometimes, scientists find chemical ingredients that make up life on Earth out in space, but they can’t assume that these ingredients on their own indicate life. Geological and environmental processes on planets may produce these chemical signatures without any living organisms involved.

The key difference, to Amirali Aghazadeh, a computational scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology, is purpose. Life grows, adapts and changes over time to better fit its environment.

His research team came up with a framework that, instead of looking for a specific type of life-form, looks at patterns in collections of chemicals and evaluates whether they could have been produced by processes like metabolism and evolution.

“If we assume that alien life uses the same chemistry, we risk missing biology that is similar – but not identical – to our own, or misidentifying nonliving chemistry as a sign of life,” wrote Aghazadeh.




Read more:
Can scientists detect life without knowing what it looks like? Research using machine learning offers a new way


3. Lessons from complex, evolving systems

Like Aghazadeh, many astrobiologists are starting to look more broadly at how complexity emerges, rather than searching for a specific type of molecule that could indicate the presence of extraterrestrial life. Other forms of life may be made up of entirely different chemical ingredients to humans, but to be considered life, they would still have to adapt and evolve over time.

Evolution is the process of change in systems. It can describe how a group of something becomes more complex – or even just different – over time.

Chris Impey, an astronomer from the University of Arizona, attended a workshop where scientists across disciplines came together to try to understand how and why systems in the universe – from organisms to languages and information – change or grow more complex over time.

Figuring out these underlying drivers of complexity, or finding signals that indicate the presence of a complex system, could help scientists search for unique forms of life in the universe.

“As astrobiologists try to detect life off Earth, they’ll need to be creative,” Impey wrote. “One strategy is to measure mineral signatures on the rocky surfaces of exoplanets, since mineral diversity tracks terrestrial biological evolution. As life evolved on Earth, it used and created minerals for exoskeletons and habitats.”




Read more:
Extraterrestrial life may look nothing like life on Earth − so astrobiologists are coming up with a framework to study how complex systems evolve


4. Beyond biology: Looking for ‘technosignatures’

Another option for searching for life has nothing to do with biology. Some scientists, wrote astronomers Macy Huston and Jason Wright from Penn State University, look for “technosignatures:” signals that would come from technology originating beyond Earth.

Human technology – from TV towers to satellite and spacecraft communications – emits enough radio waves to create faint but detectable signals traveling through space. Scientists use this idea to search for artificial signals that could potentially come from an extraterrestrial civilization.

Other technosignatures could include chemical pollution, artificial heat or light from industry, or signals from a large number of satellites.

An artist's depiction of a planet covered in cities and with a chemically altered atmosphere.
Advanced civilizations may produce a lot of pollution in the form of chemicals, light and heat that can be detected across the vast distances of space.
NASA/Jay Freidlander

“While many astronomers have thought a lot about what might make for a good signal, ultimately, nobody knows what extraterrestrial technology might look like and what signals are out there in the universe,” wrote Huston and Wright.




Read more:
Signatures of alien technology could be how humanity first finds extraterrestrial life


5. Evaluating extraordinary claims

Detecting extraterrestrial life in any form would be a momentous occasion, so, as Impey wrote, making a declaration might not be cut-and-dried. In “Project Hail Mary,” the fictional scientists sample and study the “space dots” they find extensively before drawing a conclusion.

Scientists must first rule out any possible non-biological explanations for a discovery, meaning the discovery would have to be unexplained by any chemical or geological processes. If scientists ever found a potential life-form very different from all life on Earth, it might take extensive research before they could rule out all other possibilities and determine that it’s a living organism. But setting this bar so high protects scientists from making a claim they would later need to walk back.

“A detection of life would be a remarkable development,” Impey wrote. “On scales large and small, astronomers try to set a high bar of evidence before claiming a discovery.”




Read more:
‘Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence’ − an astronomer explains how much evidence scientists need to claim discoveries like extraterrestrial life


This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.

The Conversation

ref. ‘Project Hail Mary’ explores unique forms of life in space – 5 essential reads on searching for aliens that look nothing like life on Earth – https://theconversation.com/project-hail-mary-explores-unique-forms-of-life-in-space-5-essential-reads-on-searching-for-aliens-that-look-nothing-like-life-on-earth-278757