Why a landmark Supreme Court ruling has failed to keep racial bias out of jury selection

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Austin Sarat, William Nelson Cromwell Professor of Jurisprudence and Political Science, Amherst College

In 1986, the Supreme Court barred prosecutors from striking jurors solely because of race. Bloomberg Creative/Getty Images

On April 30, 2026, Texas executed James Broadnax, a Black man who was sentenced to death for the robbery and murder of two men in 2008.

Before the jury was seated, the prosecutor moved to dismiss each of the seven Black people from the jury pool. Citing court documents, CNN noted that he “(utilized) a spreadsheet during jury selection that bolded only the names of every Black juror” and none of the white or Latino people. After defense objections, the judge reseated one Black juror, citing the otherwise all-white jury.

The trial proceeded with 11 white jurors and one Black juror.

Mugshot of James Broadnax
James Broadnax was executed in Texas on April 30, 2026.
Associated Press/Texas Department of Criminal Justice

A jury with that racial composition is likely to deliberate in a different way than one that is more racially diverse. According to Duke University law professor James Coleman, “Juries with two or more members of color deliberate longer, discuss a wider range of evidence, and collectively are more accurate in their statements about cases, regardless of the race of the defendant.”

A 2012 Duke University study of two Florida counties found that juries “formed from all-white jury pools convicted Black defendants 16% more often than white defendants, a gap that was nearly eliminated when at least one member of the jury pool was Black.”

Broadnax was executed on the 40th anniversary of Batson v. Kentucky, in which the Supreme Court ruled that prosecutors cannot exclude jurors solely on account of their race.

But Broadnax’s case is not an outlier. Similar efforts to “whiten” juries in capital cases regularly occur in states that authorize the death penalty. A 2025 analysis of Alabama’s death row by the Equal Justice Initiative found that across 122 capital cases – involving Black and white defendants in roughly equal numbers – more than one-third were decided by juries with no Black jurors or, like Broadnax’s case, only one.

As a death penalty scholar who has tracked the role of race in the death penalty system, I believed Batson was a step forward in the effort to address a long history of excluding Black people from jury service. But 40 years have shown that Batson merely scratched the surface of the problem.

A long history

The exclusion of Black people from jury service is as old as the republic itself.

Before the Civil War, one way this was done was by limiting eligibility for such service to those who could vote. Some states went further, saying only whites could serve on juries. A Tennessee law dating from 1858 is a good example: “Every white male citizen who is a freeholder, or householder, and twenty-one years of age, is legally qualified to act as a grand or petit juror.”

It was only after the Civil War and the passage of the 13th, 14th and 15th amendments to the Constitution that Black people were entitled to serve on juries nationwide – at least in theory.

Some states resisted. For example, West Virginia law specified that “all white male persons who are twenty-one years of age and who are citizens of this State shall be liable to serve as jurors.”

In 1880, 12 years after the ratification of the 14th Amendment – which guarantees equal protection of the law – the Supreme Court struck down that West Virginia law. It did so in the case of a former slave who was convicted in a capital case by an all-white jury and given a death sentence – a preview, I believe, of the kind of thing that happened to Broadnax.

The court held that the West Virginia law that “denies to colored citizens the right and privilege of participating in the administration of the law as jurors because of their color … is, practically, a brand upon them, and a discrimination against them which is forbidden by the [14th] amendment.”

Despite the court’s unequivocal ruling, the door to jury service remained closed to Black people. As legal scholar Sarah Claxton argued in 2022, “States across the country enacted vague and subjective standards for juror eligibility – requiring good moral character, honest and intelligent men, persons having educational qualifications – whose discriminatory application excluded Black citizens from juries.”

The modern story

The story of racial discrimination in jury selection is not simply a story of a now discredited past.

In 1965, the Supreme Court refused to remedy the exclusion of Black people from juries that its 1880 decision was supposed to have ended. It held, in Swain v. Alabama, that “a defendant in a criminal case is not constitutionally entitled to a proportionate number of his race on the trial jury or the jury panel.”

Two decades passed before the court again took up the glaring problem of racial discrimination by prosecutors seeking to keep Black people off juries.

In Batson v. Kentucky, the court considered a case in which the prosecuting attorney “used his peremptory challenges to strike all four black persons” in the jury pool and managed to seat an all-white jury. And on April 30, 1986, it reaffirmed that “a State denies a Black defendant equal protection when it puts him on trial before a jury from which members of his race have been purposefully excluded.”

The court then created a process for challenging jury selection. First, the defendant must point to evidence – based on how the prosecutor used their strikes – that suggests racial discrimination. If they can, the prosecutor must then come forward with “a neutral explanation for challenging Black jurors.” Finally, the trial judge weighs all the evidence to decide whether the prosecutor’s stated reason is genuine or a cover for bias. In practice, this means a Batson challenge will fail as long as the prosecutor can offer any nonracial reason for excluding Black jurors, however thin.

Thurgood Marshall standing outside the Supreme Court building
When Batson v. Kentucky was decided, Justice Thurgood Marshall warned that the decision would not end racial discrimination in jury selection.
Bettmann/Getty Images

When Batson v. Kentucky was decided, Justice Thurgood Marshall, drawing on his years of experience as an NAACP Legal Defense Fund lawyer, warned that the decision would not end racial discrimination in jury selection. “Merely allowing defendants the opportunity to challenge the racially discriminatory use of peremptory challenges in individual cases will not end the illegitimate use of the peremptory challenge,” he explained.

He predicted that “any prosecutor can easily assert facially neutral reasons for striking a juror, and trial courts are ill-equipped to second-guess those reasons.”

40 years of Batson

History has proved Marshall right.

In the Broadnax case, prosecutors claimed that their efforts to remove Black jurors had nothing to do with their race. They suggested that they were dismissed because they could not be impartial or they had reservations about the death penalty, disqualifying them from service on a jury in a capital murder trial.

The Batson test has not been much of an obstacle for prosecutors in other capital cases either. In fact, in 2025 the Death Penalty Information Center reported that in the years after Batson, “prosecutors soon learned how to successfully defend race-based challenges, and courts generally accepted even the flimsiest excuses.” That’s why defendants rarely win Batson challenges “despite powerful evidence of racial bias.”

In the 40 years since Batson was decided, the Death Penalty Information Center has identified only 68 cases across 16 states in which a capital defendant succeeded in getting a conviction or death sentence reversed because of racial discrimination in jury selection.

The picture is similar in California, where more comprehensive data exists. According to a 2020 Berkeley Law report, the California Supreme Court reviewed 142 cases involving Batson claims over 30 years and found a violation in only three. At the time the report was published, it had been more than three decades since that court found a Batson violation involving the strike of a Black prospective juror.

Looking at what has happened since Batson v. Kentucky, Elisabeth Semel, a UC Berkeley law professor and co-director of the school’s Death Penalty Clinic, said in an interview with the Death Penalty Information Center that she would give Batson a grade of “F.” As she explained, “It certainly has failed to achieve its promise.”

The Conversation

Austin Sarat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why a landmark Supreme Court ruling has failed to keep racial bias out of jury selection – https://theconversation.com/why-a-landmark-supreme-court-ruling-has-failed-to-keep-racial-bias-out-of-jury-selection-282132

Hantavirus y memoria pandémica: por qué el miedo llega antes que los datos

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Mónica Pachón-Basallo, Doctora en educación y psicología, Universidad de Navarra

eamesBot/Shutterstock

Hay un viejo dicho popular que dice: “Si me mientes una vez, es tu culpa. Si me mientes dos, es la mía”. A primera vista parece un proverbio sobre la confianza interpersonal, pero encierra algo mucho más profundo sobre cómo funciona nuestra mente cuando ha sido golpeada por una experiencia límite. Entender la reacción de mucha gente ante las noticias del hantavirus pasa, necesariamente, por entender ese mecanismo.

El cerebro que recuerda lo malo mejor que lo bueno

Empecemos por un hecho bien establecido en psicología cognitiva: nuestro cerebro no trata lo bueno y lo malo de forma simétrica. En un artículo que lleva más de 10 000 citas en la literatura científica, Roy Baumeister y sus colaboradores demostraron que los eventos negativos se procesan con más profundidad, se recuerdan con mayor detalle y durante más tiempo, y dejan huellas más resistentes al cambio que los eventos positivos. Lo llamaron, sin ambages, Bad is Stronger than Good, “lo malo es más fuerte que lo bueno”.

Esto no es un defecto, sino una solución evolutiva: un organismo que aprende más rápido de las amenazas sobrevive mejor. El problema es que ese mismo sistema, tan útil en la sabana, opera con exactamente la misma lógica en el siglo XXI cuando vemos en el móvil el titular “Brote de hantavirus en crucero procedente de Argentina”.

A nivel neurobiológico, la amígdala (estructura central del sistema límbico) actúa como un detector de amenazas que procesa la señal de peligro antes de que el córtex prefrontal pueda evaluarla de forma racional. El neurocientífico estadounidense Joseph LeDoux describió este mecanismo como la “vía corta”: un atajo neuronal que sacrifica precisión a cambio de velocidad. El resultado es que reaccionamos emocionalmente antes de pensar. Y cuando ese sistema ha sido entrenado por una experiencia tan intensa como el covid, la reactividad se dispara con mucha más facilidad.

El covid como experiencia condicionante de escala histórica

Para entender la intensidad de la respuesta actual, hay que ir un paso más atrás. Desde la psicología del aprendizaje, el covid funcionó como una experiencia de altísima intensidad emocional: muerte cercana, confinamiento, incertidumbre radical, pérdida de rutinas, de trabajo, de personas queridas. Toda esa carga quedó asociada a un conjunto de señales muy concretas: noticias de virus, curvas de contagio, palabras como “pandemia”, “transmisión”, “sin vacuna”…

Ahora esas señales están cargadas de significado emocional aprendido. Basta con que aparezca una de ellas (aunque sea un virus completamente diferente, aunque los datos sean tranquilizadores) para que el sistema emocional dispare la respuesta aprendida: ansiedad, alerta, necesidad de hacer algo o, en el polo opuesto, desconexión total.

Aquí volvemos al dicho del principio: la “segunda amenaza” ya no se evalúa desde cero. El sistema llega cargado, con los esquemas activados, listo para confirmar lo peor.

Por qué el covid dejó esa impronta y no otra

Pero hay algo que hace que esta asociación sea especialmente poderosa, y que va más allá de la psicología individual. Durante generaciones, los seres humanos hemos mantenido las pandemias, las guerras mundiales y las extinciones masivas en el terreno de lo que le pasó a otros, en otro tiempo. Los historiadores hablan de “distancia psicológica”: los eventos catastróficos del pasado forman parte de nuestro imaginario colectivo, pero no de nuestra experiencia vivida. Esto tiene una función protectora muy concreta: nos permite funcionar en el día a día sin conectar con la posibilidad de que algo así nos pueda pasar a nosotros, aquí, ahora.

Y, sin embargo, antes del covid, ese mismo sistema tenía un escudo cognitivo adicional: el sesgo de optimismo irreal, descrito por el psicólogo Neil Weinstein como la tendencia a creer que los eventos negativos son menos probables para uno mismo que para los demás en situaciones comparables. Aunque algunos autores lo han relacionado con efectos protectores sobre el bienestar psicológico, el propio fenómeno puede volverse maladaptativo cuando conduce a subestimar riesgos reales y reducir conductas preventivas. En cierto modo, podríamos decir que no es negación patológica, sino el precio de la salud mental cotidiana: no podemos permitirnos vivir en alerta permanente.

El covid lo rompió todo. Y no solo de forma individual, sino generacional y colectiva: por primera vez en la memoria viva de la mayoría de la población, una amenaza de escala civilizatoria fue real, cercana, concreta y transmitida en directo. Eso dejó una impronta que no funciona como un recuerdo más, sino como una reconfiguración del umbral de amenaza percibida. El escudo cognitivo se rompió, y ahora el sistema de detección de peligros opera en un terreno nuevo, más sensible.

Dos respuestas, un mismo origen

Cuando ese sistema condicionado se activa frente a noticias como las del hantavirus, las personas tendemos a responder de dos maneras que parecen opuestas pero comparten la misma raíz:

  • Hiperactivación: búsqueda compulsiva de información, compra preventiva de mascarillas, plantearse cancelar el viaje a Tenerife aunque los datos objetivos no lo justifiquen. Es la respuesta de quien no puede no hacer nada cuando el sistema emocional está en alerta.

  • Evitación y desconexión: ignorar las noticias, racionalizar que “esto no es lo mismo”, cambiar de tema. Lejos de ser indiferencia, es muchas veces una estrategia defensiva para no reconectar con el peso emocional de lo vivido.

Ambas respuestas son comprensibles y, en cierta medida, adaptativas. El problema surge cuando se vuelven rígidas: quien está en hipervigilancia acaba en un ciclo de ansiedad que se retroalimenta; quien desconecta pierde la capacidad de hacer una evaluación realista del riesgo.

La OMS ya ha señalado que el brote actual de hantavirus no es comparable ni en mecanismo ni en escala a la transmisión del SARS-CoV-2 (y esa información importa), pero llega a un sistema de procesamiento que, para una parte de la población, ya no opera desde la calma. Saber los datos no es suficiente si el sistema emocional no está en condiciones de recibirlos.

Quizás lo más llamativo de todo esto es que no habla de irracionalidad, sino de coherencia. Nuestro sistema psicológico hace exactamente lo que aprendió a hacer: recuerda lo malo con más precisión, se prepara antes de pensar, y aplica lo aprendido en cuanto detecta una señal parecida. El problema no es el cerebro; es que el mundo cambió de una forma para la que no teníamos precedente reciente, y todavía estamos recalibrando.

Volviendo al dicho: si la primera vez te pilló desprevenido, ahora tu sistema emocional prefiere equivocarse por exceso antes que volver a ser sorprendido. Es, en el fondo, una forma de aprendizaje. Incómoda, a veces desproporcionada, pero perfectamente humana.

The Conversation

Mónica Pachón-Basallo no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Hantavirus y memoria pandémica: por qué el miedo llega antes que los datos – https://theconversation.com/hantavirus-y-memoria-pandemica-por-que-el-miedo-llega-antes-que-los-datos-282517

Thoreau the scientist – how environmental research informed ‘Walden’ and later works

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Robert M. Thorson, Professor of Earth Science, University of Connecticut

Henry David Thoreau investigated the Sudbury River as America’s first river scientist. Robert M. Thorson

The steam locomotive chugged its way toward Cambridge, Massachusetts, on Aug. 15, 1859. On board was an impatient young scientist wanting to understand the math and science governing how river channels should behave. After disembarking at Harvard College and searching the stacks of its library, Henry David Thoreau checked out “Principes D’Hydraulique,” a three-volume tome of hydraulic engineering.

Once he translated and transcribed 17 pages from the original French, he finally discovered what he was looking for: an equation for the equilibrium velocity of a stream, given its shape, slope, volume of flow and bed roughness.

This theoretically minded, quantitative side of Thoreau is nearly invisible in the cultural zeitgeist. There, his other side dominates: the famous 19th-century transcendental nature writer, philosopher, social critic and abolitionist who lived for two years in a small house in the woods above Walden Pond in Concord, Massachusetts.

This literary-minded, qualitative Thoreau is canonized and mythologized for “Walden,” a foundational text for America’s environmental movement, and for “Civil Disobedience,” which describes a model of nonviolent political protest later adopted by Emma Goldman, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King Jr. and many others.

A small dam with water from a river spilling over it.
Removal of this low factory dam across the Concord River in Billerica, Mass., was the center of contention for what may have been America’s first major environmental assessment.
Robert M. Thorson

The nearly invisible Thoreau – the compulsively quantitative and analytically rigorous physical scientist – emerged from my research as a geologist interested in the history of 19th-century science. With two decades of scholarly books and articles behind me, I’m now featuring this less well-known Thoreau in my upcoming book, “The Walden Experiments: The Science of Henry David Thoreau.”

Footnote to fame

Thoreau rose to fame as an original American thinker. He’s now the star of an award-winning video game. The Thoreau Alliance, an organization dedicated to educating about his life and legacy, is international. A recently released and highly acclaimed Ken Burns-Ewers brothers biopic, “Henry David Thoreau,” focuses on the usual side of Thoreau as a writer and activist, emphasizing his focus on environmental justice, sustainable living and the power of nature to heal our increasingly technological and frenetic lives.

A black and white photo of Henry David Thoreau wearing a suit jacket and bow tie.
Henry David Thoreau was a prominent 19th-century naturalist, environmentalist and writer.
Benjamin D. Maxham/National Portrait Gallery

I served as an adviser for and appear in the film, which touches on Thoreau’s science. These touches are limited mainly to his work as a biological naturalist. Examples include his pioneering insights on the dispersal of seeds, his anticipation of Charles Darwin’s theory of natural selection and his study of the seasonal manifestations of natural phenomena, such as plants’ flowering times and bird migrations.

Physical science

“I keep out of doors for the sake of the mineral, vegetable, and animal in me.”

Thoreau wrote this entry in his journal on Nov. 4, 1852, when he was busy researching the lake at Walden Pond. His words remind readers that any search for meaning must ultimately begin with the bedrock roots of their lives on which all plants, animals and cultures depend. My way of saying the same thing is, “No rocks, no ecosystems, no cultures.”

During his research on the lake and nearby streams, Thoreau made an original discovery in fluid mechanics. On June 4, 1854, he wrote the first known technical description of a standing capillary wave: a small water wave that, instead of rippling outward, stays in a fixed position.

This phenomenon, which he later made a technical drawing of, is now known as the Thoreau-Reynolds Ridge. His co-discoverer, Osborne Reynolds, was a pioneering Irish-British hydraulic engineer.

Limnology and geology

Thoreau also pioneered limnology, the science of lakes. He studied how light passed through the water of Lake Walden in liquid, solid and vapor phases, how the lake stored heat in stable layers during the summer and winter, how the water chemistry affected its clarity, and how lakes eventually fill to become dry land.

His 1939 recognition as America’s first limnologist precedes by two years his 1941 canonization as an important American writer.

Thoreau correctly interpreted that his New England landscape had been shaped by a colossal ice sheet that had flowed southward from Canada. At the time, the state geologist of Massachusetts and the American science establishment were incorrectly attributing the same landscape to an iceberg-laden catastrophic flood. He also correctly reasoned that his beloved Walden Pond was born when a buried remnant of that ice sheet melted downward to create a groundwater-filled sinkhole called a kettle.

He kept a growing reference collection of rocks and minerals in his attic garret that was later exhibited for decades at the nearby Fruitlands Museum in Harvard, Massachusetts. His journal entries are peppered with geological insights related to these specimens. His final journal entry is a geological interpretation of rain splash erosion.

Thoreau’s river science

The most analytically rigorous science of Thoreau’s life culminated with his 1859 research trip to the library stacks of Harvard College. At the time, he was investigating how the Concord River watershed had changed in response to the construction of a downstream factory dam a century earlier.

Thoreau’s research was a clandestine part of a protracted legal case involving four acts of the state Legislature between 1859 and 1862. Potentially, this was America’s first major environmental assessment because it examined alternative actions to dam removal and weighed environmental protection against socioeconomic costs.

During a span of 18 months, Thoreau carried out nearly 50 discrete research tasks to create dozens of tables of numerical data and a detailed compilation map of the Concord River Valley that’s over 7 feet long. His river science predates that of the United States’ first recognized river scientist by 18 years.

The boldest claim of my latest book is that Thoreau’s sharp swerve toward science in 1851-52 led to the rescue of “Walden,” his most famous work. Specifically, his field research led to an understanding of its namesake place as a natural system of water, air, land, aquifer and life that included humanity. This more complex and inclusive vision transformed what had been an abandoned draft of social critique into the nature writing that became a foundational text for America’s environmental movement.

The Thoreau who built literary castles in the air put the solid foundations of physical science beneath them.

The Conversation

Robert M. Thorson was an unpaid scholarly advisor for the film project described here and appears in the film.

ref. Thoreau the scientist – how environmental research informed ‘Walden’ and later works – https://theconversation.com/thoreau-the-scientist-how-environmental-research-informed-walden-and-later-works-281097

Conspiracy theorists are building AI interfaces to the Epstein files – and presenting their views as data analysis

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Matthew N. Hannah, Associate Professor of Rhetoric, Politics and Culture, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Redacted documents from the Jeffrey Epstein files can fuel conspiracy thinking. Brendan Smialowski via Getty Images

Jeffrey Epstein’s death on Aug. 10, 2019, sparked a flurry of conspiracy theories, and the release of Epstein’s purported suicide note on May 6, 2026, is a good bet to be fodder for more.

But Epstein’s death is only one facet of the convicted sex offender’s story to spawn and sustain conspiracy theories.

The Department of Justice has released more than 3 million publicly available documents related to the shadowy sex-trafficking networks surrounding Epstein. Journalists and researchers are working to make sense of the massive trove of data, but it is going slowly, and the interface built by the Department of Justice to the documents is unwieldy.

In response, some Americans have taken it upon themselves to dive into the archive. They are using artificial intelligence to develop platforms to make navigating the Epstein files easier and to conjure up new assessments of all the information.

As a scholar of online conspiratorial activity, I’m seeing that these tools are also helping conspiracy theorists craft their narratives.

Do-it-yourself conspiracy platforms

Because the Epstein files are a massive, unstructured dataset made up of PDF files, videos, photographs and other materials, these platforms make it easier for people to see connections where none exist.

Some of the platforms are intentionally masquerading as neutral, data-driven AI research tools but are actually designed by conspiracy theorists to encourage and amplify conspiracy thinking, leading to what I call “platform conspiracism.”

Epstein conspiracy theories often follow a classic logical fallacy known as “post hoc ergo propter hoc” — assuming that because event A happened before event B, event A must have caused event B. For example, in 2017, QAnon participants claimed that there was a secret cabal of satanic pedophiles trafficking children, so by this faulty logic, the subsequent Epstein revelations must be evidence that QAnon was right.

Some Epstein platform operators are supplementing their thinking with ideas from QAnon and other online conspiracy movements about cannibalism, satanism or the CIA’s experiments with mind control in the 1950s known as MK Ultra.

The platform conspiracists have a ready audience because many Americans are concerned about the vast tentacles of Epstein affiliates reaching into government, entertainment, academia and the tech industry. And of course many people simply want to know who is in the files and why. The unintended, or in some cases intended, consequences are that the do-it-yourself conspiracy platforms encourage paranoia and conspiracism.

Each time the Department of Justice releases or tries to not release a new crop of documents, it sparks widespread interest. Social media influencers, for example, immediately share videos of their own interpretations of the files.

Conspiracy masquerading as data analysis

One platform, called the WEBB, promises to use AI for “document intelligence” that can purportedly help researchers explore the Epstein files, flight logs, court documents and depositions.

Using a slick interface with literal red threads animating the screen as a reader moves their mouse, WEBB automates the messy data cleaning tasks that are required when working with unstructured data. The site says WEBB converts, optically records and indexes the files’ contents automatically, making the documents “structured, searchable intelligence.”

Protesters carrying signs about conspiracies.
Some AI research tools designed by conspiracy theorists may widen conspiracist thinking.
Bryan Dozier/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Named for Gary Webb, an investigative journalist who reported on an alleged CIA drug trafficking operation, WEBB invites users to imagine themselves as scrappy open-source intelligence researchers. It presents the platform as an objective resource that will be transparent about its functions. But even in the necessary first step of cleaning data, researchers make decisions that can steer the results.

One of the creators of WEBB is purported antisemitic conspiracy influencer Ian Carroll, who has appeared on Alex Jones’ Infowars and other far-right shows espousing conspiracy theories about Jewish cabals, 9/11 Trutherism, Epstein and Pizzagate, the discredited conspiracy theory in which child sex trafficking was allegedly happening at the Comet Ping Pong Pizzeria in Washington.

Carroll, or someone on his team, engages with people who mine the Epstein files through the WEBB interface, sharing their interpretations with his 1.4 million followers. Carroll also posts explainer videos showcasing his own conspiracy theory research with WEBB.

Other platforms such as Epstein Exposed and Epstein File Search offer similar platforms for “doing your own research” in the Epstein files. While they are less overtly conspiratorial, lacking endorsements from conspiracy theorists such as Candace Owens, such platforms use social media posts to encourage conspiracy research on their platforms.

An expanding web

WEBB also promises to begin adding datasets to its AI-powered platform that are related to other conspiracy theories, such as those about the 9/11 attacks and UFOs. Added “files” even include books of the Bible that were removed.

The WEBB team stated that their AI tool won’t hallucinate – create false or nonsensical content – because it is only trained on the file data, even though large language models routinely hallucinate because they are driven by probabilities.

It remains unclear how WEBB won’t hallucinate when it jumbles the Epstein files, JFK reports, 9/11 documents and Book of Enoch together. Carroll is now promoting a product called WEBB Enterprise, which presumably will include more access and tools for a fee.

Conspiracy of data

Whenever Americans are hungry for answers, platforms such as these can more easily masquerade as objective data analysis tools. They feed into a “conspiracy of data,” in which false or misleading information is presented in charts and graphics that create the impression of accuracy and authority.

Legitimate data analysis is complicated, messy and challenging, and best practices call for data analysis tools to emphasize transparency and context. For example, journalists at The New York Times use AI to supplement their work while also acknowledging the potential sloppiness of such tools and need for experts and journalists to do the work.

And as platforms like WEBB add their own datasets, the fodder for the paranoid fantasy of online conspiracy theories grows.

The Conversation

Matthew N. Hannah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Conspiracy theorists are building AI interfaces to the Epstein files – and presenting their views as data analysis – https://theconversation.com/conspiracy-theorists-are-building-ai-interfaces-to-the-epstein-files-and-presenting-their-views-as-data-analysis-277949

Why Trump’s $2 billion buyoff to cancel offshore wind farms is a bad deal for American taxpayers and the US energy supply

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Christopher Niezrecki, Director of the Center for Energy Innovation, UMass Lowell

Wind farm construction means jobs and locally produced power. AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

The U.S. is in a bizarre situation in 2026: It’s facing a looming energy shortage, yet the Trump administration is making deals to pay offshore wind developers nearly US$2 billion in taxpayer money to walk away from energy projects.

These politically motivated moves are costing Americans far more than just the buyouts.

Communities have been laying the groundwork for offshore energy projects for years. Offshore wind development brings jobs and economic development that reshape regional economies, with the scale of public and private investment reaching into the hundreds of billions of dollars over years. East Coast communities have built up ports to support the industry and launched job-training programs to prepare workers. Construction, maintenance and shipping businesses have sprung up, along with secondary businesses that support the industry.

An aerial view of a port showing the towers of future wind turbines and blades in a rack on a ship nearby.
Offshore wind farms bring jobs and economic development. State Pier in New London, Conn., serves as a staging site for wind farm construction and supplies.
AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey

Losing the projects, and the threat of losing other planned wind farms, will also likely mean higher energy prices. And while some offshore wind farms are moving ahead, developers must account for both lost momentum and increased uncertainty from the Trump administration.

As a result, Americans will bear the economic brunt of these decisions for decades ahead.

How America got to this point

To understand how the U.S. arrived in this predicament, let’s take a step back.

In March 2023, leaders from three U.S. federal agencies under the Biden administration met with the CEOs from American technology and manufacturing giants Microsoft, Amazon, Ford, GM, Dow Chemical and GE at the annual ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit, under the banner of “Affordable, Reliable and Secure American-Made Energy”.

They agreed on a key point: The nation was staring down a severe shortage of electrons to drive American business forward.

Fortunately, solutions abounded. Enormous amounts of onshore wind and solar power had been deployed during the previous five years. More than 80% of all new power additions to the U.S. grid had come from these two sources.

Particularly exciting were plans to build large offshore wind farms up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Taken together, the wind farms would generate 30 gigawatts of new power by 2030, enough to power more than 10 million homes and reduce volatility in energy pricing thanks to long-term power purchase agreements.

The U.S. had one small wind farm at the time, off Rhode Island, and two wind turbines off Virginia, but Europe had been operating large offshore wind projects for over two decades and was building more.

In the months following the 2023 meeting, leasing and permitting for the U.S. mega projects continued, and in some areas construction got underway.

A map showing many U.S. wind farm lease areas along the East Coast.
A map of offshore wind lease areas shows how many companies have paid the U.S. to lease areas of ocean for offshore wind farms. A few wind farms off New England are already operating. The lease areas where the Trump administration used taxpayer money to persuade companies to drop their wind farm plans include two TotalEnergies leases – Attentive Energy, off New Jersey, and a lease area off South Carolina – and Bluepoint Wind, also off New Jersey.
U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

Then, the Trump administration arrived in 2025. As president, Donald Trump immediately issued an executive order to halt offshore wind lease sales and any approvals, permits or loans for wind farms. He had made his disdain for wind power clear ever since he lost a fight to stop construction of a small wind farm near his golf course in Scotland in the 2010s.

After a federal judge declared Trump’s executive order unconstitutional in December 2025, the administration shifted strategies.

In March 2026, news outlets began reporting on deals struck in which the federal government would pay three offshore wind project developers hundreds of millions of dollars to cease development of their permitted projects, agree not to build others and repurpose the funds toward fossil fuel projects.

According to reported discussions involving the French energy company TotalEnergies, the money would be paid out through the Department of Interior’s Judgment Fund, intended for payment of legal settlements, despite there not being any active litigation with TotalEnergies.

The other projects agreeing to Trump’s buyouts as of early May were Golden State Wind, in California, and Bluepoint Wind, off New Jersey and New York. Both are co-owned by Ocean Winds, a joint venture of the French energy company Engie and EDP Renewables, headquartered in Spain. The California Energy Commission and members of Congress are now investigating the moves.

Offshore wind means local investment

Regardless of whether these buyouts are even legal, the losing parties will be the American taxpayers and a U.S. economy that needs more electrons on the grid, not fewer.

One analysis projected that deploying 40 GW along the U.S. East Coast by 2035 would generate roughly $140 billion in investment, much of it concentrated in port infrastructure and supply chain development.

New York in early 2026 announced a $300 million state grant program to expand port infrastructure supporting offshore wind. And the New Jersey Wind Port represents an investment exceeding $600 million to enable manufacturing and assembly of turbines.

Two workers stand on a dock as wind turbine blades are loaded on a ship with a crane.
Workers in New London, Conn., prepare a generator and its blades for transport to South Fork Wind’s offshore wind farm in 2023. To build an offshore wind farm requires manufacturing jobs, parts suppliers, dockworkers, crane operators, ship crews, as well as the wind farm construction crews and maintenance teams and many more businesses and their employees.
AP Photo/Seth Wenig

In 2025, California state lawmakers authorized $225.7 million in spending for offshore wind ports and related facilities.

For these projects to pay off for local communities, however, the regions will need to see the development of wind farms.

Killing jobs

The cancellations of the planned projects also take jobs away from hard-working, blue-collar Americans.

The construction and installation of offshore wind turbines requires the expertise of skilled electrical workers, pipe fitters, welders, pile drivers, iron workers, machinists and carpenters.

Future offshore wind costs depend on investments today. As infrastructure is established and expertise grows, each subsequent project becomes easier to build, less risky and less expensive.

This pattern is already evident globally: The levelized cost of electricity from offshore wind globally fell by 62% between 2010 and 2024.

Canceling projects or buying back leases eliminates the electricity those projects would have generated. It also slows the accumulation of experience, scale and supply chain maturity that drive costs down over time.

The result is higher costs for future projects and for electricity ratepayers.

An energy crisis

Developing a robust offshore wind industry provides resilience in the face of an unstable global energy market.

Future U.S. and global energy demand is projected to grow significantly, largely driven by the rapid expansion of AI data centers and electrification of vehicles, homes and businesses.

Limiting the supply of homegrown energy will increase energy costs for Americans, especially in the regions where the wind farms were supposed to be located – New York, New Jersey, North Carolina and California.

With the federal buyouts, the U.S. is losing 8 GW of planned electricity generation, enough to power more than 3 million homes. That generation needs to be replaced by other energy sources and expanding power transmission lines that can take seven to 10 years to get permits for and build out. The leased projects were on their way to providing new clean power generation fairly quickly. Eliminating them restarts the project clock.

Reliance on dirtier, conventional forms of power generation will increase along with foreign energy imports, such as electricity delivered from Canada to New York, leading to higher and more volatile electricity prices.

Evidence from Europe shows that offshore wind can also reduce electricity costs for consumers by lowering wholesale prices and reducing dependence on fossil fuels and their volatile prices.

Vineyard Wind I, an offshore wind farm completed in 2026, with 806 MW of generation – enough to power about 400,000 homes – is projected to save Massachusetts customers about $1.4 billion on electricity bills over the next 20 years. With a fixed-price, 20-year contract, the project also lowered prices during cold snaps and peak demand for gas, reducing volatility and cost.

From jobs to local economic development to power costs, we believe canceling these offshore wind projects is a bad deal for American taxpayers.

The Conversation

Christopher Niezrecki receives funding from from the National Science Foundation, Office of Naval Research, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, ARROW Center, and several companies that support the WindSTAR Industry-University Cooperative Research Center.

Ben Link serves on the Maryland Clean Energy Center Board of Directors.

Zoe Getman-Pickering receives funding from The Massachusetts Clean Energy Center and Maryland Energy Administration. She is affiliated with ARROW based at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. ARROW is a member of NE4Wind and sits on the advisory board for The Pacific Offshore Wind Consortium.

ref. Why Trump’s $2 billion buyoff to cancel offshore wind farms is a bad deal for American taxpayers and the US energy supply – https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-2-billion-buyoff-to-cancel-offshore-wind-farms-is-a-bad-deal-for-american-taxpayers-and-the-us-energy-supply-282456

Black, Hispanic, female and low-income elementary students are less likely to be identified with autism

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Paul L. Morgan, Director, Institute for Social and Health Equity, University at Albany, State University of New York

Understanding whether different groups of kids are more likely to be identified as having autism can help ensure that all students have equal access to the appropriate services at school. Adrian Vidal/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Students who are Black, Hispanic, female, from low-income families or multilingual learners are less likely to be identified with autism in U.S. elementary schools than their white, male, higher-income or English-speaking peers. This finding comes from our new research, published in April 2026 in the academic journal Autism.

These disparities appear even among students who have similar levels of academic achievement and who are attending the same schools.

Our research shows there are big and recurring gaps in whether students are identified with having autism while they attend U.S. elementary schools. In both 2003 and 2019, for example, fourth grade female students were about 80% less likely to be identified with autism, as compared to similarly situated boys.

We found that for every 10 boys identified with autism, only about two girls in a comparable situation – including those displaying similar levels of reading achievement and attending the same schools – were identified.

We analyzed data repeatedly collected from 2003 to 2022, using large, nationally representative samples of about 160,000 fourth grade students participating in the National Assessment of Educational Progress.

We specifically looked at data that included student academic achievement. This approach let us consider potential bias in how a student’s disability is identified.

Why it matters

Understanding these disparities in U.S. elementary schools is important to help ensure that all students with disabilities have equal access to appropriate services and supports.

Schools are one of the most common places that provide disability services to children and adolescents. This includes students who have autism.

Some research finds that teachers are more understanding of a student’s classroom struggles when informed that the student has autism.

School-based special education services, such as speech therapy, often benefit students with disabilities, including those of color. Student will not receive these services without an identified disabilty.

For example, recent analyses of public data from Massachusetts, Indiana and Connecticut compared the achievement trajectories of the same students before and after they received special education services. The students did better in both reading and mathematics when they received special education services.

Students with disabilities are also more likely to graduate from high school and attend college if they receive special education services.

A graphic shows a montage of puzzle pieces and children playing, with the word 'autism' written near the children.
Children with autism who are identified and receive supportive services at school are more likely to do well academically.
DrAfter123/iStock Illustrations

What still isn’t known

We do not know whether these disparities in autism identification are occurring in other elementary grades, at least based on the National Assessment of Educational Progress data.

In another of our recent analyses, though, we did observed racial disparities in autism identification across elementary grades.

Some other research suggests that students of color and girls experience significant delays in receiving autism diagnoses.

Our analysis is based on students who completed the National Assessment of Educational Progress reading test. Students with severe autism and higher support needs who were unable to complete these assessments, even with accommodations, were not included in our analysis.

Future studies could examine whether sociodemographic disparities in autism identification are occurring in U.S. middle and high schools as well for students with significant impairments.

What’s next

Our additional preliminary analysis indicates there are other types of disparities at play. For example, we are finding that Black and Hispanic girls, low-income Black students and multilingual learners who are white or Hispanic are especially unlikely to be identified as having autism.

We are also exploring whether some of these disparities have grown, or otherwise changed, following recent increases in autism prevalence rates, including for students of color and girls.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

The Conversation

Paul L. Morgan received funding from the U.S. Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences to support these analyses. Opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the view of the U.S. Department of Education.

ref. Black, Hispanic, female and low-income elementary students are less likely to be identified with autism – https://theconversation.com/black-hispanic-female-and-low-income-elementary-students-are-less-likely-to-be-identified-with-autism-281469

Teens aren’t as disengaged as you may think: What adults get wrong about adolescents’ civic contributions

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Kimia Shirzad, Associate Researcher and Adjunct Instructor in Recreation, Park and Tourism Management, Penn State

Teens contribute in ways that go far beyond organized volunteering. Maskot/DigitalVision via Getty Images

A teenager scrolls through their phone at the dinner table, barely looks up and answers questions with one-word replies. For many adults, that image has come to stand for a larger fear: that today’s young people are disconnected from others and may be uninterested in the world around them. Concerns about declining civic participation often deepen that worry.

As researchers who study adolescent development, we believe this picture is incomplete. Adults help shape the environments in which young people learn to contribute, or learn not to. In worrying that young people are disengaged from participating in civic society, adults may overlook both their own role in fostering engagement and the many ways young people are already contributing.

Youth civic and community engagement matters because it helps build skills, relationships and habits of participation that carry into adulthood. How do teens actually express their care for the world around them, and what helps them to do so?

What does engagement really look like?

When adults talk about “engaged” teens, they often picture a narrow set of activities: volunteering, joining clubs, leading student government, maybe attending a rally or organizing a fundraiser. Those forms of contribution to society matter. But they are not the whole story.

In two recent studies, we surveyed 723 American adolescents, with an average age of 15, to understand what predicts whether teens will contribute to society and what their contribution looks like.

In the first study, we identified four distinct patterns: Some teens were generally less engaged; this group represented 21% of our sample. Another 19% we called “Digital Advocates,” highly active online but less involved in face-to-face settings. A third group, 33% of our sample, we termed “Local Helpers,” more engaged in interpersonal and community-based helping. “Contributors” were our fourth profile type, making up 26% of our sample; they reported high engagement across all domains.

Our finding pushes back against a common adult assumption that “real” engagement has to look a certain way. It doesn’t. A teen sharing information online about where local families can access food assistance and a teen quietly checking in on a struggling friend are both contributing – just differently. Digital participation is not automatically shallow; for many young people, online spaces are where they learn about issues, form opinions and connect with others who share their concerns.

Crucially, these profiles were shaped less by demographics – age, gender or race and ethnicity – and more by whether our teen respondents had the personal and contextual supports that helped them act on what they cared about.

What supports adolescent contribution?

In our second study, we found that more-engaged young people reported higher levels of hope, purpose and critical consciousness, which together help explain why some adolescents are more likely to act on what they care about. Hope is the sense that the future can be better and that you can help make it better. Purpose is a stable sense of direction. Critical consciousness is a teen’s ability to notice and think critically about the social dynamics around them.

We were especially interested to see that purpose mattered not only when it was self-focused – wanting to succeed, build a career and so on – but also when it extended beyond the self, such as wanting to help others or contribute to something larger than one’s own interests.

That may sound obvious, but it has real implications. Adults often tell teens to “get involved” without helping them connect that involvement to a meaningful why. Our findings suggest young people are more likely to contribute when they feel hopeful about the future and when they see their lives as connected to others.

What adults can do

To help young people make a difference, first broaden your definition of contribution. The teenager organizing a school drive, the one helping a neighbor and the one making informative videos about a community issue are all contributing in real ways. Notice these efforts and support them in their chosen contribution.

You can also support adolescents in building the traits that make it easier for them to get involved and make a difference:

  • Help young people develop a sense of purpose that goes beyond themselves. Ask questions like: What do you care about? What kind of difference do you want to make? Purpose-driven engagement tends to be more durable than participation that’s driven by obligation.

  • Nurture hope. Young people are less likely to act when they feel that nothing will change. Adults can support hope by helping teens see realistic pathways for success and giving them opportunities to speak up or solve real problems in their schools and communities.

  • Make space for critical consciousness. After-school programs, classrooms and youth groups can create environments where conversations about social issues are taken seriously and connected to real action. Young people need chances to talk about the world they see – and the world they want.

Teens often make a difference in ways that reflect both what they care about and how they are beginning to understand the world around them. Contributing is about more than just involvement in civic institutions; it can also look like helping a neighbor, speaking up for others or creating social media content that raises awareness about an issue. Instead of expecting teens to be checked out, caring adults can help them develop the skills and resources to contribute in any and all of these meaningful ways.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Teens aren’t as disengaged as you may think: What adults get wrong about adolescents’ civic contributions – https://theconversation.com/teens-arent-as-disengaged-as-you-may-think-what-adults-get-wrong-about-adolescents-civic-contributions-280786

People with premenstrual dysphoric disorder have higher rates of suicidal thinking, planning and attempts

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Eliza Zhitnik, PhD Student in Health Policy and Management, UMass Amherst

Premenstrual dysphoric disorder is a severe form of premenstrual syndrome. SimpleImages/Moment via Getty Images

People with premenstrual dysphoric disorder – a more serious form of premenstrual syndrome, commonly known as PMS – are more likely to experience suicidal thoughts and behaviors than people without it.

That is a key finding of our recent systematic review, published in the journal Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research.

We searched for information on suicidality – meaning the risk of suicide and encompassing a spectrum of thoughts, plans and behaviors intended to end one’s life – in people with this disorder. We found 18 studies, which spanned more than 2 million people who menstruate.

The likelihood of experiencing suicidal thoughts and behaviors in people with the disorder varied depending on the study and the way the participants were identified, but in general these thoughts and behaviors were relatively common.

In a study in adolescents with premenstrual dysphoric disorder, or PMDD, almost one-third of participants reported suicidal thoughts or behaviors. Similarly, in a study in adult women with the condition, a quarter of respondents reported thinking about, considering or planning suicide. Rates were high in women who lived with PMDD alongside other mood disorders, such as depression.

Why it matters

PMDD is a long-term condition, officially recognized in 2013, that may affect up to 6% of people who have periods. It has long been considered a severe form of PMS but differs because it causes serious mood and emotional problems and is a chronic, lifelong condition.

To be diagnosed, a person must meet strict criteria, which can make it harder for some people to get the right diagnosis. A formal diagnosis requires that people track their symptoms and rate them against specific criteria over at least two menstrual cycles. Our new finding – that people with the disorder may have a higher risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviors compared with those without it – shows how important it is to identify and treat this condition without delay.

Researchers do not yet understand the exact causes of PMDD.

In the studies we reviewed, we found that reported rates of suicidal thoughts and behaviors varied a lot – from as low as 0.011% in a large group of people with premenstrual disorders to as high as 86% in a worldwide group of patients with confirmed PMDD.

This wide range suggests that the results depend heavily on how the studies were done, who was included and how the disorder was defined and measured. When in the menstrual cycle people were evaluated might also affect this, as research shows that suicidal thoughts and behaviors are strongly linked to hormonal changes during the menstrual cycle.

What still isn’t known

A great deal more research is needed to understand how suicide risk can change during the menstrual cycle.

Though we didn’t find any studies that tested treatments to address suicidal thoughts and behaviors in people with PMDD, there are evidence-based treatments for PMDD that can improve well-being, including antidepressants, hormonal contraceptives, hormone-blocking agents, cognitive behavioral therapy and lifestyle changes, such as dietary changes and exercise.

For people living with PMDD and their caregivers, seeking support is essential. For clinicians, learning to recognize and treat PMDD is a priority.

If you or someone you know is in crisis and are based in the U.S., call the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline to speak with a trained listener, or text HELLO to 741741. Both services are free, available 24/7 and confidential. If you are a reader from outside the U.S., please use a helpline like the one above (for a list of resources in other countries, see here) or speak to a healthcare professional.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. People with premenstrual dysphoric disorder have higher rates of suicidal thinking, planning and attempts – https://theconversation.com/people-with-premenstrual-dysphoric-disorder-have-higher-rates-of-suicidal-thinking-planning-and-attempts-280895

Elections 2026: Experts react to the Reform surge and Labour losses

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Lockwood, PhD Researcher in Politics, York St John University

The 2026 elections are shaping up to be a seismic moment for politics in the UK. Across England’s local elections, Labour is facing up to a devastating result while Reform UK has picked up hundreds of seats from a standing start. Throughout the day as results come in from across England, Scotland and Wales, our panel is providing context, analysis and expert insights.

Big wins for Reform, but can it deliver?

Alia Middleton, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Surrey

Reform UK’s surge in areas such as Newcastle-under-Lyme indicates that the party has sustained the support it started to gather in the Midlands and the north of England at the 2024 general election.

The party has rather uniquely demonstrated an ability to steer voters away from both Conservatives and Labour. Gaining councillors and nibbling away at Labour support in the party’s heartlands in Hartlepool and Burnley shows that Labour’s reclaiming of its red wall at the 2024 general election may only be a temporary reinstatement.

Alongside the collapse and prolonged recovery of the Conservatives, Reform seems to be harvesting the party’s votes – take Essex County Council, which Reform now controls, for example. This has been either under Conservative control or no overall control since 1974. In 2021, Reform UK barely registered, but today it has 42 councillors. Several members of the shadow cabinet – including Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch – have seats in Essex. But now Reform seems to be consolidating its support in the county.

One upcoming issue for Reform, however, is that voters will soon expect delivery. Reform has shown it can win votes in local elections but the more councillors it has, the more it needs to show that it can function not just as a campaign machine, but as a professional party that can keep its promises and deliver real results.

From patchwork to pointillist painting

Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary, University of London

English local elections involve county, borough and district councils, as well as mayoralties. They take place in some parts of the country but not in others, and in some places all of the seats on a council are up for grabs, while in others it’s only a third.

No wonder, then, that one of the go-to clichés that politicians and pundits routinely reach for on a day like today is “patchwork”. Yet even that may not do justice to the complex reality now that we have entered the era of five- rather than two-party politics.

A better analogy now might be a pointillist painting – lots of coloured dots that resolve themselves into a complete scene as the picture gradually takes shape. Much of what we’ll see in the initial analysis – especially when it comes to those spinning party lines – will be a tale, to quote Shakespeare’s Macbeth, “told by an idiot, full of sound and fury. Signifying nothing.”

Once we hear from political scientists about projected national share and the national equivalent vote, we can start to understand.

What next for Starmer and Labour?

Karl Pike, Senior Lecturer in Public Policy, Queen Mary, University of London

Keir Starmer is in a kind of lame duck political position – very few people think the prime minister will lead Labour into the next general election. His authority is gradually reducing, and losing these elections around the UK will reduce it further. On that, most people within the Labour party can agree. But they cannot agree on how to respond, and the options Labour MPs have for changing their leader are complicated.

Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham could win enough support within the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) to challenge Starmer. Or he could succeed Starmer if he stepped aside, and win a majority of Labour members and affiliated supporters in the event of a contest. But the Burnham option requires some choreography that could be disrupted. Burnham is not an MP, and could still be blocked from standing by Labour’s national executive committee. Any Labour leadership contest would have to follow a successful byelection victory for Labour and for Burnham.

Angela Rayner continues to be popular in the party, but there are lingering doubts after her exit from government over her tax affairs. Wes Streeting could probably only become leader if the PLP opted to nominate just one politician, removing the need for a contest. If any candidate from the PLP’s “soft-left” stood against Streeting, I think Streeting would struggle to win.

So the who, when and how all remain up in the air. Meanwhile, the UK government has important jobs to do, all of which require people to focus on governing, rather than party management. It is not clear that the PLP has a majority view on what a different government direction should look like.

I cannot predict what will happen next. It seems unlikely that Starmer can continue to lead Labour into next year and beyond. But much of the discussion around a change of leadership seems to involve a political high-wire act. This is why, for some time now, Labour MPs have been unhappy – but unsure of what to do about it.

The death of two-party politics? Tactical voting means we can’t say that for certain

Thomas Lockwood, PhD Candidate in Politics, York St John University

Early results from England’s local elections might suggest increasing fragmentation in the party system, but “five-party politics” is better understood as an emerging pattern than a settled reality. What stands out most is not a clean realignment, but continued tactical voting and localised switching. Voters are choosing between multiple viable parties depending on context. This might be, for example, prioritising immigration and national discontent in red wall towns, or focusing on environmental concerns and housing in urban and university areas, rather than shifting permanently between fixed blocs.

For the first time in nearly 50 years, Labour has lost Tameside Council in Greater Manchester, which has fallen to no overall control. This is significant as it’s the council area for the constituency of Labour’s former deputy leader Angela Rayner.

On its own, it’s not a seat-threatening result for the next general election, but it is a serious long-term warning sign for Labour’s heartlands. Combined with the wider picture of Reform gaining hundreds of councillors, it shows that the “disrupter” dynamic is structural, not fleeting. But whether these localised surges harden into a durable five-party system, or remain heavily shaped by tactical voting and specific local contexts, will only become clearer in time.

So far, however, Reform will be feeling very encouraged by the state of play.

The Conversation’s coverage of elections in England, Scotland and Wales is being updated throughout the day.

The Conversation

Karl Pike has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. He is a member of the Labour Party and before becoming an academic was a political advisor for the Labour Party.

Alia Middleton, Thomas Lockwood, and Tim Bale do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Elections 2026: Experts react to the Reform surge and Labour losses – https://theconversation.com/elections-2026-experts-react-to-the-reform-surge-and-labour-losses-282502

A handpicked history of floral art, kabuki on screen and a poetry competition – what to see, do and create this week

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Walker, Senior Arts + Culture Editor, The Conversation

Caroline Walker is one of my favourite working artists. The observations in her work are so exquisitely rendered that they often feel almost uncanny. Such was the case when I encountered her 2025 painting Kitchen Table.

It shows a young girl, perhaps five or six, drawing with quiet concentration, a pink felt tip gripped firmly in her hand. In the foreground sits a bright yet somehow wild bouquet – a mix of polished pink blooms and smoky lilac thistles. The paper it was wrapped in, along with the scissors used to trim the stems, spills across the table.

The scene struck me because it could have been lifted straight from my own childhood. To me, these flowers tell a story: a mother once as unbridled in her creativity as her young daughter, now finding moments for it where she can – arranging a shop-bought bouquet into something both sculptural and joyful.

But that’s just my interpretation. Flowers have shifting meanings for different periods, places and people – which is why they make for a rich exhibition theme.

Walker’s painting is on show at Handpicked: Painting Flowers from 1900 to Today at Kettle’s Yard in Cambridge. Our reviewer, artist Judith Brocklehurst, likened the curation – featuring works by Walker alongside Henri Rousseau, Chris Ofili and Lubaina Himid – to a “handpicked” bouquet, each piece “selected for its colour, form or meaning”. The curators, she writes, “have certainly achieved a complex yet complementary arrangement”.

Handpicked: Painting Flowers from 1900 to Today is at Kettle’s Yard until September 6 2026.




Read more:
A new exhibition explores empire, love and loss through paintings of flowers from 1900


As an arts editor, I’m offered recommendations every day – TV shows I “have” to binge, books I “won’t be able to put down”, exhibitions accompanied by a “great café”. Sometimes I nod politely, knowing I’ll never find the time to watch all 28 seasons of a well-meaning recommender’s favourite series. More often, though, their enthusiasm is contagious.

Such was the case when our deputy editor, Laura Hood, told me about her visit to the Michaelina Wautier exhibition at the Royal Academy in London. Had there not been a laptop screen separating us on Zoom, I suspect she might have reached through and shaken my shoulders as she implored me to see it.

Art historian Gabriele Neher saw the show shortly after it opened and was equally galvanised. Painting in the 1600s, Wautier’s portraiture is marked by an “elegant palette” and “mastery of textures”. These masterpieces were designed to defy the challenge that a woman can not paint like a man.




Read more:
Michaelina Wautier review: an astoundingly skilled painter returned to her rightful place in the spotlight


Many times I’ve pressed Hettie Judah’s book Acts of Creation: On Art and Motherhood into the hands of friends and her new book, How to Enter the Art World, sounds just as sage.

A particular strength, according to our reviewer sculptor Benedict Carpenter van Barthold, is that “Judah does not imagine her reader to be a blank tablet”. She writes for someone who already has a life – a person “at a transitional point as an artist”: perhaps a parent, someone changing careers, or returning to a long-held passion after years of work or care. It’s a book that takes the complex needs of older artists seriously.




Read more:
How to Enter the Art World by Hettie Judah offers a smørgasbord of sage advice


The trailer for Kokuho.

Kokuho, Japan’s highest-grossing live-action film, is well worth seeking out at your local independent cinema this week.

A vivid, expansive epic spanning five decades and running close to three hours, the film is set in the world of kabuki – Japan’s most popular traditional performing art. Professional kabuki remains a tight-knit, all-male sphere built on family lineage: actors pass hereditary stage names down to their sons, and successful outsiders are exceedingly rare.

That makes Kokuho’s central question more culturally specific than the usual A Star Is Born-style narrative: what makes a great kabuki actor – relentless hard work, or the accident of birth?

Kokuho is in select cinemas now




Read more:
Kokuho is Japan’s highest ever grossing live-action film – a lavish kabuki epic about talent, lineage and sacrifice


This week The Conversation UK launched a new climate poetry award to bring science and creativity closer together, inviting UK-based researchers to write a poem inspired by climate change research.

The competition kicks off with a free introductory climate poetry workshop, led by poet Professor Sam Illingworth of Edinburgh Napier University, on May 13. Sign up here and find out more about how to enter here.




Read more:
Introducing The Conversation Climate Poetry Award – for UK and Ireland-based academics


This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something, The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

The Conversation

ref. A handpicked history of floral art, kabuki on screen and a poetry competition – what to see, do and create this week – https://theconversation.com/a-handpicked-history-of-floral-art-kabuki-on-screen-and-a-poetry-competition-what-to-see-do-and-create-this-week-282404