Category: The Conversation – UK

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robin Hankin, Senior Lecturer in Applied Statistics, Department of Mathematics, University of Stirling

The Eurovision Song Contest was founded 70 years ago as a way for Europe, divided after war, to come together by celebrating its music. Every year, several dozen countries across the continent – and, more recently, far beyond – compete in what is considered the world’s most viewed non-sporting event.

As a cultural institution that last year attracted around 166 million viewers, the results of Eurovision have a big impact – not least by deciding the venue of the following year’s event. Yet the issue of bloc voting, where countries tend to vote more favourably within regional or cultural blocs, has long been a controversial aspect of the contest.

In 2008, the BBC’s Eurovision commentator Terry Wogan spoke out against bloc voting by Eastern European countries, saying: “You have to say that this is no longer a music contest. I have to decide whether I want to do this again.” He didn’t – it was his final show in the commentary hotseat.

On occasion, suspiciously friendly voting has strayed into something even more troubling. The 1968 contest, held at the Royal Albert Hall in London, saw a major upset when home favourite Congratulations, sung by Cliff Richard, was pipped by the Spanish entry La, La, La.

Forty years later, Spanish Eurovision host Jose Maria Inigo claimed that the vote had been rigged at the behest of Spain’s military dictator, Franco. His claims were later supported by an Irish TV investigation.

The modern, expanded Eurovision features two semi-finals as well as the grand final, held this year in Vienna on May 16. Its scoring combines a jury panel with a public vote, reducing the impact of each jury. But that didn’t stop another major voting scandal emerging in 2022.

The 2022 scandal

During the 2022 grand final in Turin, Italy, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) announced that six juries’ scores from the second semi-final – Azerbaijan, Georgia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and San Marino – had been nullified after “certain irregular voting patterns were identified in the results of [these] countries”.

The countries’ votes were replaced with an aggregate score “based on the results of other countries with similar voting records” for both the semi-final and grand final. This process was acknowledged by Eurovision’s Independent Voting Monitor.

The countries’ broadcasters strongly denied any wrongdoing, with Georgia even suggesting their first-place vote in the final had been wrongly allocated as a result of the imposed system. Among online audiences, there was immediate speculation of a cover-up. After the final, the EBU issued a long explanation for their decision.

So had there really been collusion? Colleagues and I from the University of Stirling, including Riley Uttley, have re-assessed the 2022 voting scandal using applied statistical methods.

Each five-member Eurovision jury selected their ten favourite songs, with 12 points going to their favourite, ten points for second, then eight down to one for their tenth-best song. A similar points system was used to reflect each country’s public vote, doubling the total number of votes awarded by each country.

The jury results prior to the EBU’s intervention are shown below. The six juries whose scores were nullified – marked in red – awarded each other a total of 251 points. This is just seven points shy of the absolute maximum they could have given each other: 6 x (12+10+8+7+6) = 258 points.

Eurovision jury scores, 2022 second semi-final

If the scores were allocated randomly, the odds of the six countries awarding each other 251 points would be less than 1 in 10,000. Such a low probability provides strong objective evidence that the six juries were indeed colluding.

But applied statistics can precisely quantify the strength of this collusion – using a version of the Bradley-Terry (BT) method of paired comparisons, first published in December 1952.

Calculating the strength of collusion

Say we have two songs, a and b, and want to know the probability that a is judged better than b. Using the BT method, this probability is:

p(a) / p(a) + p(b)

where p(a) and p(b) are the respective strengths of the two songs.

This idea can be extended to the ranking of any number of songs. If we observe, say, that a ≻ b ≻ c ≻ d ≻ e (that is, song a is the best, then b, down to e), the probability of this voting decision is:

This is known as a Plackett-Luce likelihood function. While calculating each value is difficult, we can use standard optimisation techniques to maximise this probability, and thereby estimate the strengths of the songs.

When it comes to identifying the strength of collusion in the 2022 contest, my own technique known as reified Bradley-Terry can be applied to this likelihood function.

The unfair advantage of collusion is represented by adding an extra strength term to any competitor who benefitted from collusion. In the equation below, S represents the strength of the collusion effect, and is applied to song b. So, we replace every occurrence of p(b) with p(b)+S. Then, the probability of a ≻ b ≻ c ≻ d ≻ e is now:

The Eurovision 2022 semifinal had 18 songs and 21 juries, leading to a probability equation like the one above – but with a total of 220 terms. While this is a lot for a person to work with, it can be easily handled by the R programming language, an open-source statistical tool designed to handle masses of data and produce graphics and visualisations.

The removed juries all appeared to have very similar behaviour, so we represented the strength of the collusion of all six as a single number S, which we calculated to be 0.262. We then calculated the probability of S being as high, or higher, than this value on the assumption of no collusion.

We calculated this probability to be one in 58,000. Put another way, if you have 2.5km of matchsticks laid out end-to-end and burn one, it’s the probability of picking the burnt one. We can, therefore, confidently conclude that collusion did take place.

A final quirk

The 2022 Eurovision voting scandal had ramifications beyond the nullification of the six collusive scores. Jury voting for semi-finals was discontinued from 2023 until this year’s contest. Perhaps perversely, this made the juries carry more weight in each grand final.

With the semi-finals decided purely by public votes, which tend to be more dispersed and unpredictable, this meant the juries’ more concentrated voting patterns played a more significant role in deciding the ultimate winner.

Jury voting was reinstated for the semi-finals of this year’s contest. However, the juries are larger (seven members rather than five) and chosen from a more diverse background.

The clear favourites, Finland, will hope this is another step towards eradicating the controversial voting patterns that have haunted past contests – and made Eurovision a focus of keen interest for some applied statisticians.

Robin Hankin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Eurovision Song Contest: what the science of statistics reveals about an infamous voting scandal – https://theconversation.com/eurovision-song-contest-what-the-science-of-statistics-reveals-about-an-infamous-voting-scandal-282908

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Barbara Pierscionek, Professor and Deputy Dean, Research and Innovation, Anglia Ruskin University

Scientists in South Korea have developed experimental contact lenses designed to send electrical signals through the retina and into brain regions linked to mood. In mice, the technology appeared to improve depression-like behaviour.

The idea sounds futuristic: a contact lens that could one day help treat depression by stimulating the brain through the eye. The work is still at a very early stage, with findings so far limited to a single mouse study.

The eye is already one of the body’s most useful access points for medical technology. Light passes through the cornea and lens before reaching the retina, which converts it into electrical signals carried to the brain through the optic nerve. Because of this close connection, researchers have spent years developing technologies that use the eye to monitor disease.

Smart contact lenses have already been designed to monitor some eye conditions, such as glaucoma. Other smart contact lenses can track pupil size as an indicator of nervous system activity, since the iris reacts to light, emotion and some drugs. And scientists have also developed experimental lenses to monitor glucose levels in people with diabetes.

The latest research attempts something different: using the eye as a route into the brain itself.

The contact lenses contain tiny electrodes that send mild electrical signals through the retina, the layer of light-sensitive tissue at the back of the eye. The researchers used a technique known as temporal interference, in which two slightly different electrical frequencies are delivered at the same time. The signals are designed so that they only become fully active where they overlap, allowing researchers to target specific brain regions linked to mood regulation.

The researchers compared the process to two weak torch beams crossing to create a brighter point where they meet. In theory, the approach could stimulate brain circuits known to be linked to depression.

The experiments were carried out in mice that had been injected with a stress hormone to create depression-like behaviour. The researchers acknowledge that this does not fully reflect human depression. Scientists also continue to debate the relationship between stress hormones and depression, with studies producing mixed results and questions remain about cause and effect.

For the study, the researchers fitted miniature contact lenses to mice with damaged photoreceptors, meaning their vision was already impaired. This was necessary because normal visual activity would interfere with the electrical signals passing through the eye. The technique, as tested, would therefore not work in animals, or people, with healthy retinas.

Still a way to go

There are other reasons to be cautious. Human eyes constantly adjust focus by changing the shape of the lens, something mouse eyes do not do in the same way. That movement could disrupt signals delivered through a contact lens placed on the cornea.

The technology also faces practical challenges. Smart lenses need careful fitting to avoid damaging the cornea and must be kept clean to reduce the risk of infection. Any medical data they collect would also require strong safeguards.

Making the lenses is very expensive and the researchers note that the technology is not yet commercially viable on a large scale. A recent review highlighted the manufacturing difficulties involved in making smart contact lenses.

Depression itself is also difficult to model in laboratory animals. Symptoms, causes and severity vary widely between patients, making it hard to draw direct comparisons from experiments involving stressed mice raised in carefully controlled laboratory conditions.

Non-invasive brain stimulation is already an established area of medical research, and the work may help with future studies. But results from a small mouse experiment involving animals with impaired vision are still a long way from a treatment that could be used in humans.

Nonetheless, the idea of treating depression using smart contact lenses is intriguing, and this early work adds a creative new thread to the broader search for novel treatments for depression.

Barbara Pierscionek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Depressed mice successfully treated with smart contact lenses that zap their brains – new study – https://theconversation.com/depressed-mice-successfully-treated-with-smart-contact-lenses-that-zap-their-brains-new-study-282526

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Cushion, Professor, Cardiff School of Journalism, Media and Culture, Cardiff University

Even before votes were counted in this year’s Senedd (Welsh parliament) election, speculation among commentators was rife that one campaign narrative had firmly taken hold – that the contest had become a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

Both parties promoted that framing during the campaign, urging voters to see the election as a straight choice between them. In the aftermath of the result – and Labour’s losses – attention quickly turned to whether the media had amplified that message, including criticism by a Labour Senedd member who refused to talk to ITV News because of its coverage.

Clearly the media were not solely to blame for Labour’s decline. However, our analysis of election coverage found that more than one in four TV news items featured an opinion poll, often framing the contest as a battle between two parties. On UK-wide flagship bulletins, that figure rose to more than half. In the final week of the campaign, almost half of all TV news items referenced a poll.

A binary choice?

From the outset, Plaid Cymru and Reform used campaign slogans that presented the election as a direct battle between the two parties. The implication was that voters should back one of the frontrunners rather than waste their vote on other parties.

That framing carried particular significance because this election was held under a new proportional voting system. Unlike Westminster’s first-past-the-post model, proportional systems are designed to produce representation for multiple parties. Seats are allocated according to vote share. Because of this system, the election couldn’t have been further from a two-horse race.

Stronger performances by Labour, the Conservatives, Greens or the Liberal Democrats could have translated into representation in the Senedd.

But public understanding of the new system remained limited throughout the campaign. Surveys conducted before and during the election suggested widespread confusion about how votes would translate into seats, alongside misinformation about tactical voting.

Whether the two-horse race narrative actually changed voting behaviour remains difficult to determine. Post-election research will need to assess whether voters acted tactically, misunderstood the electoral system, or were influenced by campaign messaging and media coverage.

Research has long suggested that heavy reporting of opinion polls can contribute to a “bandwagon effect”. This is where voters gravitate towards parties perceived to be gaining momentum.

Horse race dominated campaign coverage

As part of our election media analysis project, we tracked all election news coverage across both UK-wide and Welsh broadcasters between April 8 and May 6. This included flagship TV news bulletins on the BBC, ITV and Channel 4. We also looked at online news articles from BBC Wales, ITV Wales, S4C and Sky News, and social media content produced by these outlets.

Our previous analysis
found that broadcasters produced many explainers during the campaign. These included videos outlining how the D’Hondt proportional voting system works.

But in day-to-day reporting, explanations of how votes translated into seats were far less common than stories about which parties were rising or falling in the polls. Instead, coverage increasingly focused on the electoral horse race, particularly in the final stretch of the campaign.

Seat projections also became more prominent as polling day approached. Although not always included alongside polls, they shaped reporting in the campaign’s final days across television, online coverage and social media. This included ten online items in the final week, four on social media and two on TV news.

Because Plaid Cymru and Reform were leading many of the polls, coverage often centred on those two parties. On May 5, for example, ITV News’ Wales at Six programme opened by reporting that Plaid Cymru was surging ahead of Reform in the broadcaster’s latest poll.

As polls increasingly drove coverage, the election itself came to be narrated as a contest between two parties competing for victory.

Did coverage squeeze out other parties?

The prominence of polling and seat projections inevitably reduced attention on other parties and on the broader dynamics of proportional representation.

It’s questionable whether broadcasters should have amplified campaign messaging that framed the election as a binary contest. After all, without understanding the proportional voting system, people may not have appreciated that it is designed to represent a range of parties rather than produce a winner‑takes‑all outcome.

At the same time, it is important to recognise the difficulty of isolating media influence. Broadcasters were largely reporting representative opinion polls that, in many cases, accurately reflected the final outcome. But our analysis suggests that, in the final week especially, the campaign was increasingly understood through the language of momentum, winners and losers.

That approach undoubtedly added drama and urgency to coverage. But it also risked diverting attention away from policy debates and from the realities of a proportional political system designed to produce a more representative mix of parties in the Senedd.

Stephen Cushion has received funding from the BBC Trust, Ofcom, AHRC, BA, ESRC and Welsh Government.

Keighley Perkins receives funding from AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.

Maxwell Modell receives funding from the AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.

– ref. A new voting system meant the Welsh election couldn’t have been further from a two-horse race – so why was it portrayed as one? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-voting-system-meant-the-welsh-election-couldnt-have-been-further-from-a-two-horse-race-so-why-was-it-portrayed-as-one-282745

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kenny Monrose, Researcher, Department of Sociology, University of Cambridge

I can only marvel when I consider that the footprint upon which the newly erected V&A East museum now stands was, for many decades, characterised by hard labour and heavy industry.

The area, once full of factories, warehouses and poverty, was described by novelists such as Charles Dickens in deeply unflattering terms. In 1857, he wrote: “Many select such a dwelling place because they are already based below the point of enmity to filth: poorer labourers live there, because they cannot afford to go further, and there become debased.”

Today, however, this once-defamed part of east London, has been transformed into a place of culture, leisure, artistry and creativity. The opening of V&A East exemplifies this shift. Its director, Gus Casely-Hayford, describes the institution as a platform for young Britons, regardless of background or origin, to craft their own destiny.

The inaugural display at the museum is the alluring exhibition The Music Is Black: A British Story, which celebrates 125 years of Black British music.

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Read more:
V&A East: the spirit of the 19th-century cultural campus of ‘Albertopolis’ lives on

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The exhibition covers the period from 1900 to 2025 and is divided into four significant historical moments: chattel enslavement, the Black Atlantic, New Commonwealth migration and the dynamic identity formation of so-called Black British culture. Entrenched within this historical timeline are the related themes of religion, class, location, power, gender and, of course, race.

Importantly, this is not a “kitchen sink” exhibition in which items are thrown together. Instead, it is carefully crafted, considered and curated. It is little wonder that the exhibition took over four years to complete. It comprises more than 200 artefacts, including outfits, sheet music, artwork, instruments and rare cinematic footage. These are underscored by a carefully designed soundscape delivered through headsets given to attendees, making navigation through the exhibition a fully immersive experience.

Inside the exhibition

Among my favourite pieces was Natty Bongo, a bronze sculpture created by Fowokan George Kelly of the British funk band Cymande. I was also drawn to the “other” piano owned by Winifred Atwell, the first Black British woman to top the charts with the ragtime hit Let’s Have Another Party in 1954.

Equally interesting were sound system operator and record producer, Sir Lloyd Coxsone’s record box and an extraordinary photograph by Charlie Phillips of activist Kwame Ture at the Cue Club in 1967.

I also thought the correspondence between Renaissance man Paul Robeson and British opera singer Amanda Aldridge was a worthy inclusion. Another significant moment is the official statement from Buckingham Palace confirming the appointment of composer Errollyn Wallen as Master of the King’s Music in 2024.

Some of the exhibition’s most striking artefacts include the “clit rock” outfit worn by Skunk Anansie as she became the first Black British woman to headline the Glastonbury Festival in 1999. Equally compelling is the juxtaposition between an ancient musical bow made from a calabash shell and modern instruments such as the Oberheim DMX sampling drum machine and the Roland JD-800 synthesizer.

Also on display is one of Shirley Bassey’s iconic outfits, celebrating her contribution to the sound of the James Bond franchise through Goldfinger in 1964.

The exhibition concludes by presenting the most recent and globally recognised form of Black British music: grime, which draws upon many of the musical traditions that preceded it. As my colleague and fellow sociologist Joy White recently pointed out to me, it is especially important that grime is included because it was born on the very periphery where V&A East now stands.

What the exhibition’s curator, Jacqueline Springer, does particularly well is foreground artefacts that demonstrate how Black British music has consistently functioned as a vehicle for communication. Throughout its history, it has fused spirituality and worship with resistance, rebellion and merriment. These themes, forged through the legacy of chattel enslavement, remain constant throughout the music’s development.

As a result, the exhibition becomes an emotional, multigenerational and multiracial journey that fully engages the senses of its audience. More importantly, it highlights Black British music as a vital component of British artistic and cultural life.

The Music Is Black does not claim to deliver the definitive story of Black British music. Rather, as the title itself suggests, it offers a story of Black British music – and it delivers that story with excellence, sophistication and rigour.

The Music Is Black: A British Story is at V&A East, London until January 3 2027.

Kenny Monrose does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Music Is Black: A British Story – it’s little wonder this emotional exhibition took over four years to complete – https://theconversation.com/the-music-is-black-a-british-story-its-little-wonder-this-emotional-exhibition-took-over-four-years-to-complete-282780

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Brian Thornton, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, University of Winchester

For years, victims of crime and those trying to challenge convictions have said that the UK’s system for accessing court records is prohibitively expensive and unnecessarily bureaucratic.

The government has taken steps to improve this transparency. In a recent investigation, I revealed that the government has abandoned its policy of destroying court records. But significant barriers remain for those trying to gain access to those records.

Now, the government has unveiled a plan to use artificial intelligence (AI) to make court transcriptions cheaper and more accessible.

The Ministry of Justice will run a trial using its in-house AI, called Justice Transcribe, to produce court transcriptions. The pilot study, overseen by the courts and tribunals service, will assess how accurate the AI transcriptions are before the system is potentially rolled out nationwide.

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Read more:
Government has halted controversial policy of destroying court records, investigation reveals

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A campaign led by survivors of rape and sexual assault has highlighted the difficulty of getting transcriptions of their trials. London’s Victims’ Commissioner Claire Waxman called it a “real block to recovery” for victims, and said one woman had been quoted £30,000 for a transcript of her full trial.

In 2012 the MoJ dispensed with stenographers and began recording court cases instead. But these audio recordings need to be transcribed by private companies. The fees charged by these companies have been described as “exploitative”. As Julie Price of Cardiff Law School put it:

The expense appears to be out of proportion to the work involved to produce these, and the private companies that hold these service contracts are businesses that exist to make a profit from what should surely be a public service.

The MoJ now recognises there is a problem, admitting that victims have had to pay thousands of pounds for transcriptions. Under the new Sentencing Act, victims in the Crown Court can receive judges’ sentencing remarks for free. But the AI pilot aims to make full court transcriptions more accessible.

Waxman, the victims’ commissioner, says that transcriptions are central to the healing process: “Access to transcripts is vital for victims and families, helping them understand what happened in court, process proceedings in their own time and support their recovery, while also strengthening transparency and accountability across the justice system.”

And miscarriage of justice campaigners have argued that lack of access to court records makes it difficult to challenge convictions.

Sarah Sackman KC, Minister for Courts and Legal Services, said: “Victims show immense courage in coming to court, delivering their testimonies and looking their perpetrators in the eye … that’s why it is only right they process what happened in their case in their own time and on their own terms.” She added that AI use in the courtroom could improve transparency and access to justice.

The introduction of audio recordings in 2012 spelled the end for court stenographers. This time, it could be the transcription companies that face extinction.

Changing technology

While faster and cheaper transcriptions will be welcomed, there are reasons to be sceptical that AI will be able to deliver in the way the MoJ hopes.

Accuracy will be an issue, from getting names and places right, to properly representing technical language used by experts. But the greater issue may be AI hallucination. This is when AI tools “generate information that seems plausible but is actually inaccurate or misleading”.

These hallucinations are something that regular users of AI have become used to. But they can pose a significant risk, particularly if the information is being relied upon for medical treatments or legal decisions.

A study by the Thomson Reuters Institute, the research arm of information company Thomson Reuters, concluded that judicial scepticism about using AI for court documents “is not simple technophobia – it’s professional responsibility”.

“Relied-upon hallucinated information isn’t merely bad output, it can lead to a potential distortion of justice.”

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Read more:
Why AI shouldn’t be used even to decide ‘simple’ court cases

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Research by the Law Commission, an independent statutory body charged with reviewing the law of England and Wales, also highlighted the issue. They found “examples from many jurisdictions” of lawyers citing hallucinated legal cases.

The commission argues there needs to be human oversight of AI legal systems and that an overreliance on AI by lawyers would “almost certainly be a breach of their regulatory obligations”. In some cases, it “may even risk the lawyer being liable for contempt of court”.

The scepticism from those working in the criminal justice system is understandable given that any snags when new technologies are introduced can have significant impacts on real people. For example, DNA technology was presented as flawless when it was introduced, but we now know it is not. And just ask someone like Shaun Thompson, who is bringing a legal challenge after the Met police’s live facial recognition technology wrongly identified him as a suspect, about the accuracy of this technology.

Given these concerns, it is unsurprising that the MoJ hasn’t put a time frame on how long the pilot study will take – much less when the new approach will be used across the criminal justice system.

Brian Thornton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Victims can’t access their court transcripts because they’re too expensive – the government says AI might be the answer – https://theconversation.com/victims-cant-access-their-court-transcripts-because-theyre-too-expensive-the-government-says-ai-might-be-the-answer-280876

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nicholas John Wheeler, Professor of International Relations Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham; BASIC

The summit between Chinese president, Xi Jinping, and US president, Donald Trump, reportedly covered a lot of ground. The two leaders are said to have discussed trade, technology and the war in Iran, agreeing that Strait of Hormuz should be kept open. But the most potentially hazardous issue they covered was the future of Taiwan, which Xi said if handled poorly, could lead to conflict and “an extremely dangerous situation”.

The danger is not simply that Xi and Trump disagree over Taiwan’s future. It is that actions one leader may see as defensive could easily be interpreted by the other as evidence of hostile intent. It’s a security dilemma that is well known in international diplomacy.

For Washington, arms sales to Taiwan, including a recent multibillion-dollar package, are intended to strengthen deterrence and reduce the likelihood of conflict by making coercion more costly for Beijing. But even ostensibly defensive arms sold to Taiwan appear immensely threatening to the Chinese government, given Beijing’s determination to restore Taiwan to Chinese sovereignty.

Chinese fears that Washington’s arms sales will embolden the Taiwanese leadership to seek independence are mirrored in US fears that China will seek to use force to reunify Taiwan. In the weeks and months before the summit, in a clear signal to Trump and the leaders in Taipei that China means business, Beijing ramped up the scale and frequency of its military exercises and drills.

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Read more:
Trump-Xi summit: US president says he will discuss arms sales to Taiwan – breaking decades of US policy

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The danger is not that either side necessarily wants war. It is that both sides may believe they are acting defensively while interpreting the other side’s defensive moves as preparation for aggression.

History suggests that the danger of a superpower clash can sometimes be reduced through direct leader-to-leader diplomacy. One important example came during the final decade of the cold war.

Following the 1983 Able Archer crisis (when Soviet leaders reportedly feared that a Nato nuclear exercise might conceal preparations for a real nuclear strike) the then US president, Ronald Reagan, began to reconsider how Moscow interpreted US actions. Reading intelligence reports on Soviet fears, Reagan reflected that “maybe they are scared of us and think we are a threat”.

He concluded that he wanted to go “face to face” with Soviet leaders to explore whether the US-Soviet conflict was being driven by mutual fear and misperceptions.

That instinct helped pave the way for Reagan’s later diplomacy with Mikhail Gorbachev. Their meetings in Geneva (1985), Reykjavik (1986), and Washington (1988) did not erase geopolitical rivalry, but they did help create a degree of interpersonal trust between the two leaders. That trust mattered. It reduced the risk that every military move or diplomatic signal would automatically be interpreted in the most threatening way.

The lesson is not that Trump is Reagan or Xi is Gorbachev. Nor is it that personal diplomacy can magically solve a conflict as deep as Taiwan. The lesson is more modest, but also more urgent. Potential adversaries need leaders who can recognise when fear and misperceptions of the other side’s hostile intent might be driving a conflict, rather than genuine malign intent.

Communication and trust

In our upcoming book on interpersonal diplomacy and trust in international relations, we describe this process through the concept of “security dilemma sensibility”. This is the willingness to recognise that an adversary’s actions may stem from insecurity and fear as well as aggressive intent. Such moments are rare, but they can become critically important in preventing rivalry from sliding into catastrophe.

Direct leader-to-leader communication matters. It allows rivals to bypass some of the bureaucratic, political, and military filters through which signals are often distorted. The Biden-Xi summit in San Francisco in 2023 produced an important agreement to restore high-level military-to-military communications after relations had deteriorated sharply following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Biden later remarked that both leaders had agreed they should be able to “pick up the phone and call directly and we’d be heard immediately”.

That kind of trusted communication channel matters enormously during crises, where silence, delay, or misinterpretation can rapidly intensify fears on both sides. But communication alone is not enough. Without at least some degree of mutual trust and security dilemma sensibility, even direct exchanges risk being dismissed as manipulative or deceptive.

That is the challenge now facing Trump and Xi over Taiwan. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy makes the problem especially acute. Beijing may wonder whether Taiwan is something Trump might bargain over. Taipei and US allies may worry that American commitments are less firm than Washington claims. And Trump himself may believe that personal rapport with Xi can substitute for the hard work of clarifying red lines, managing deterrence and reducing the risk of both inadvertent and deliberate escalation.

Exercising security dilemma sensibility would require both leaders to recognise that actions intended as defensive by one side are often experienced as threatening by the other. For Washington, this means appreciating why Beijing views growing US military and political support for Taiwan as a challenge to a core national objective. For Beijing, it means recognising that coercive military pressure around Taiwan deepens fears in Washington and Taipei that China is preparing to impose a solution by force.

If the summit produces only theatrical displays of toughness or transactional bargaining, the deeper dangers in the relationship will remain. But if Trump and Xi can strengthen channels of direct communication while demonstrating a greater awareness of each other’s fears and insecurities, they may reduce the risk that a future Taiwan crisis spirals through miscalculation into catastrophe.

The real test of the Trump-Xi summit is not whether either leader comes out as a winner in the eyes of their domestic constituencies and wider global opinion. They need to leave understanding that deterrence doesn’t just fail when leaders appear weak. It can also fail when they are so convinced of their own defensive intent that they can’t see how threatening they look to the other side.

Nicholas John Wheeler has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

Marcus Holmes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump-XI summit: in a high-stakes meeting the two leaders can’t afford to misread each other – https://theconversation.com/trump-xi-summit-in-a-high-stakes-meeting-the-two-leaders-cant-afford-to-misread-each-other-282977

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Aliyu Ibrahim Nagidi, PhD Candidate, Energy and Environment Institute, University of Hull

The Humber estuary in northern England is ideally suited to access abundant clean energy and massive carbon dioxide (CO₂) storage sites.

This region is home to the world’s largest offshore wind farm, which will generate enough electricity for up to 6 million homes when completed by 2027. Further from the coast in the southern North Sea, lies a giant vault on the seabed that can safely store CO₂.

Yet the Humber emits more CO₂ than any other region in the UK. Estimates put the figure at 12 million tonnes per year – equivalent to the CO₂ released from driving a petrol car around the earth 2 million times. Cities like Hull and the surrounding urban environment could provide opportunities for carbon removal.

Technologies such as direct air capture (DAC) can remove CO₂ directly from the air with high levels of purity. That captured CO₂ can then be used as a raw material for local industries – such as meat processing, drink production, construction and chemical manufacturing – while reducing overall carbon emissions.

In 2023, the UK company Mission Zero Technologies installed a DAC unit at the University of Sheffield. The captured CO₂ is used for making sustainable aviation fuel at a university research centre. Another DAC system was installed in Norfolk in 2025 and the CO₂ produced is used to make limestone for manufacturing bricks and concrete blocks for building constructions.

While DAC is no quick fix, it is a climate solution when working alongside other approaches and technologies to reduce carbon emissions.

DAC can be built to be compact and modular. Multiple units can be connected together to form a larger unit. One of the first DAC plants was built by Climeworks, a pioneer in carbon removal technology in Switzerland. The CO₂ from Climeworks’ DAC units was directly sent into nearby greenhouses for growing vegetables. The revenue from the sale of that CO₂ made this technology financially viable. The modularity of DAC systems makes it easier to install them into existing structures.

DAC units need both electricity and heat, ideally from renewable sources. An in-built heat source, such as a heat pump, can minimise the reliance on fossil-fuel-based energy sources while reducing costs. This makes it’s possible for DAC units to run entirely on renewable electricity.

Carbon capture in communities

In the effort to reduce CO₂ emissions in the Humber, the focus has been mainly on large decarbonisation projects. This is understandable, as integrated deployments in the form of regional hubs help achieve climate targets with the Humber aiming to acheive its net-zero target by the year 2040.

However, installing smaller DAC units in urban areas can help build more support for those larger-scale projects and bring the technology closer to the communities.

Smaller DAC units can easily be turned on and off depending on the availability of electricity. This makes them well suited to using clean energy from renewable sources which varies depending on the weather conditions. As such the technology can be implemented in the Humber where offshore wind farms generate clean energy in abundance.

Our research across the Humber region explores how best to pair offshore wind with DAC. While CO₂ storage suits large scale DAC, using CO₂ captured by smaller DAC units is an alternative way to monetise this. This reduces reliance of local industries on external sources of CO₂.

The Humber’s high output of clean energy could power the DAC units. When that captured CO₂ is sold to local businesses, this can provide economic benefits within the area.

People are more inclined towards something that they can see, which benefits them as a community. Individual DAC units can be installed in parks, on rooftops of public spaces and existing urban buildings such as libraries or high-rise residential buildings. Information boards located around the parks can help local people understand how the technology works and support similar, larger projects that could provide more jobs in the future.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Humber region and its cities are a hub for carbon removal – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/the-humber-region-and-its-cities-are-a-hub-for-carbon-removal-heres-why-278146

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anwen Elias, Reader in Politics, Aberystwyth University

After emerging as the largest party in the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election, Plaid Cymru is now establishing itself as the next Welsh government. It’s the first administration not led by Welsh Labour since devolution began 27 years ago.

For UK Labour, Plaid’s breakthrough could become one of the most significant constitutional and political challenges of the coming years.

The clearest guide to Plaid’s immediate priorities is its “first 100 days” programme for government. This was published during its February 2026 conference. It includes calls for a new devolution bill to be passed in the UK parliament giving Wales the same devolved powers as Scotland and new funding arrangements for Wales.

The party’s manifesto provides more detail on its package of constitutional demands. These include further powers over taxation, policing and justice, welfare, broadcasting, renewable energy, migration and the Crown Estate.

During the election campaign, Plaid deliberately played down its longer-term goal of Welsh independence in an effort to broaden its appeal beyond pro-independence voters. But now in government, the party will want to begin laying the groundwork for a longer-term constitutional change.

Its manifesto proposes a new national commission for Wales to prepare for a document exploring the challenges and opportunities that independence could bring for Wales. For Westminster, this may evoke comparisons with the SNP government’s Scotland’s Future which was published ahead of the 2014 independence referendum.

Another reset in UK-devolved relations

In the aftermath of the election, Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said he intended to “take the fight” to the UK government as first minister. It reflects the party’s campaign promise to “always stand up for Wales”.

Plaid has also pledged to “reset” relations with Westminster. The UK Labour 2024 manifesto also committed to a “reset” of the UK government’s relationship with the devolved governments.

Structures intended to improve co-ordination between the UK and devolved governments were introduced in 2022 under the then Conservative UK government. These included a council bringing together the prime minister and devolved leaders, alongside policy-focused inter-ministerial groups.

The outgoing Welsh Labour government argued that relations had improved since Labour entered power in Westminster in 2024. But it also pointed to examples of “limited or uneven engagement” across some policy areas.

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Read more:
After a complete collapse, where does Welsh Labour go from here?

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Our research has raised questions about the UK government’s willingness to make full use of the intergovernmental arrangements.

Plaid now wants those arrangements strengthened and placed on a firmer legal footing. In particular, it supports recommendations made by the Independent Constitutional Commission on the Future of Wales in 2024 to give intergovernmental structures a statutory basis, rather than relying largely on political convention.

The party also wants stronger protections for the Sewel convention. This is the principle that Westminster should seek consent before legislating in areas of policy that have been devolved.

A new alignment among devolved governments

Plaid’s victory could also reshape relationships between the three devolved governments. Co-operation between Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland has often been limited. This reflected their different political leaderships and constitutional settlements. But following the 2026 elections, parties supportive of greater national self-determination now lead all three governments.

That raises the prospect of more co-ordinated pressure on Westminster. Rhun ap Iorwerth has already signalled he wants to pursue greater cooperation.

One probable area of shared interest is the UK’s relationship with the EU. As debates over trade, regulation and economic alignment continue, devolved governments may seek a stronger voice in shaping UK-EU policy. Plaid’s manifesto argues Wales should have a “seat at the table” in discussions directly affecting Welsh interests.

Plaid was able to use Labour’s years of partnership with the previous Welsh government to argue that the UK government had become increasingly indifferent towards Wales.

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Read more:
The Welsh Conservatives survived the Senedd election – now they must decide what they stand for

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For Keir Starmer’s government, demands for deeper devolution and constitutional reform may struggle to compete with mounting political and economic pressures elsewhere. Some of Plaid’s proposals may remain low on the list of priorities. But there are risks in dismissing them entirely.

A perception that Wales is being ignored by Westminster could deepen political frustration. It could also simultaneously strengthen support for further constitutional change. In the longer term, that may create more fertile ground for Plaid Cymru’s case that a journey to independence is the only option for Wales to achieve its own interests.

Anwen Elias receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

Elin Royles received funding from the James Madison Charitable
Trust.

– ref. Why a new Plaid Cymru government in Cardiff may pose a fresh challenge for Westminster – https://theconversation.com/why-a-new-plaid-cymru-government-in-cardiff-may-pose-a-fresh-challenge-for-westminster-282436

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emilie Rutledge, Senior Lecturer in Economics, The Open University

The US and Israel’s war on Iran has cast a long shadow over the Gulf. It has placed many of the economies that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regional grouping – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia – under substantial strain.

Since the war began in February, the World Bank has downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for the region from 4.4% to just 1.3%. Some thinktanks, including Oxford Economics, even predict that some GCC economies will enter recession in the second half of the year.

However, the effects of the war have differed across the region. While the Gulf states are often viewed as a unified economic bloc bound by a shared dependence on hydrocarbons, the conflict has revealed significant differences in their economic vulnerability and resilience.

Countries like Qatar and Kuwait have seen their oil and gas exports seriously disrupted by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have access to bypass infrastructure, have been partly able to circumvent this limitation.

Saudi Arabia has diverted 7 million barrels of crude per day through its east-west pipeline, allowing it to export oil from Yanbu on the Red Sea. The UAE, meanwhile, has utilised a pipeline from Habshan to Fujairah to export up to 1.8 million barrels of oil each day from the Gulf of Oman.

This infrastructure has enabled both countries to capitalise on soaring global oil prices. Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, reported a 26% jump in profits in the first quarter of 2026.

Disruption to energy exports is one part of the story. The war has also caused substantial physical damage to energy infrastructure across the region. Around 80 energy facilities, ranging from production plants to refineries and pipelines, have been targeted by Iranian missile and drone attacks so far.

It will take months – and in some cases years – to repair the damage (which stands at an estimated US$58 billion) once the war ends. Qatar’s liquified natural gas industry, in particular, has suffered serious damage. QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy company, says it will take up to five years to repair its Ras Laffan industrial hub alone.

Gulf diversification

The GCC states have adopted strategies to diversify their economies away from a dependency on hydrocarbons. Tourism and aviation are two central pillars of this, with GCC countries investing heavily in these sectors. The Gulf is now home to some of the busiest international airport hubs in the world.

But these industries, too, have been damaged by the war. Financial analysis firm, Moody’s, suggested recently that hotel occupancy in Dubai is set to plummet to 10% in the second quarter of 2026 from 80% before the war. Some Iranian attacks have targeted civilian areas, including hotels and residential buildings, prompting tourists to stay away.

The Iran war has also placed Gulf airlines such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways under increasing financial pressure. More than 30,000 flights to the Middle East were cancelled in the first month of the war and jet fuel prices – the biggest variable cost to airlines – are up 90% on the annual average.

The logistics sector is another area of Gulf diversification. It has grown rapidly since the early 2000s thanks to the region’s strategic position between east-west trade routes. The UAE’s Jebel Ali Port, for instance, is now one of the world’s largest container ports and the base of Dubai’s multinational logistics firm, DP World.

However, Jebel Ali has seen a 40% drop in vessels due to the war, with container carriers rerouting to alternatives such as Salalah in Oman and Colombo in Sri Lanka. And while DP World has opened emergency land corridors to ports outside the Gulf to keep cargo moving, these routes are costly and have limited capacity.

The UAE and Qatar also both serve as major air freight hubs, acting as bridges for cargo travelling between Asia and Europe. But this has been affected by the war too. Freight rates have increased following attacks on both Dubai and Doha that led to grounded flights and air space closures.

In the long-term, the economic impact of the war on the Gulf economies will hinge on its duration and political outcome. But the risks are firmly tilted to the downside. The fiscal outlook for some GCC states is deteriorating, with several facing scenarios where government spending exceeds revenue. Public sector debt in some GCC states is rising too.

Moody’s has downgraded its outlook on Bahrain, which was already facing longstanding financial issues prior to the war, from “stable” to “negative”. This will make it harder for Bahrain to access much-needed capital and increase future borrowing costs.

GCC economies invest their surplus oil and gas revenues through sovereign wealth funds, which collectively manage between US$4 trillion and US$6 trillion in global assets. Governments are likely to draw on these funds to support domestic spending on reconstruction and bolstering their defences after the war.

This could undermine their future potential to fund large long-term diversification mega-projects such as Saudi Arabia’s Neom City. Plans for Neom, which was initially proposed as a linear city to home 9 million people, have already been scaled down in recent years due to issues including funding pressures.

The Gulf’s loss of “safe-haven” status due to the war, and the resulting reputational damage, cannot easily be reversed. Even after the conflict ends, higher risk premiums will persist for those doing business in the Gulf. Shipping disruptions could take months to unwind, and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be likely to trigger permanent rerouting.

If the conflict drags on, structural shifts in global supply chains may deepen, with lasting costs for the Gulf economies.

Emilie Rutledge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How severe has the economic impact of the Iran war been for the Gulf states? – https://theconversation.com/how-severe-has-the-economic-impact-of-the-iran-war-been-for-the-gulf-states-282629

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Pat Collins, Associate Professor in Geography, University of Galway

We were all flying without wings back in the heyday of Irish boy band Westlife. The group were formed in Dublin in 1998 and rose to international popularity during the early 2000s. The new release of their anniversary album, 25: The Ultimate Collection, affords an opportunity to reflect on the band’s story. They emerge as bold and brash, but also as airbrushed as an advertisement for a new housing development in Dublin.

Irish music manager Louis Walsh took five young men and handed them to British music mogul Simon Cowell. Some of the band members were from the west of Ireland, from a generation whose older brothers had left for London and Boston in the 1980s with a bag and a prayer.

The songs were almost aggressively un-Irish. Free from political statement or critical reflections on the place they came from. Instead, they put out American soft rock from the 1970s and 80s, which they delivered in close harmony and in matching knitwear, sitting on stools, off which one of them would occasionally rise for the key change.

It was, in the most literal sense, a performance of aspiration. And Ireland in 2001 understood aspiration.

The Irish comedian Tommy Tiernan once described a trad music (Irish traditional music) session as a frenetic spinning and spiralling whirl where kids fuelled on Fanta were thrown around and everyone felt like the spiral might get so strong as to free everyone from the pull of Earth’s gravity. Much of the way we were in Ireland in the 2000s was similar to that whirl.

The country had been experiencing rising economic statistics for long enough that we started believing that we were actually rich. It was dubbed the Celtic Tiger economic boom.

Ireland had emerged from the poor man of Europe moniker to become something shinier and less complicated. Westlife were simply doing the same thing, at volume, on Top of the Pops.

All this growth came under the guidance of that Taoiseach in the anorak, Bertie Ahern. He was a leader so confident in the fiscal strength of the country that he thought any economists who thought any different should do away with themselves – the same man who didn’t feel the need to have a bank account.

As Westlife was topping the music charts in 2001, Ireland was dubbed the “world’s most globalised country” – top of a list of the countries most integrated into the global network of trade, capital, information and people. More than the US, more than Singapore, little Ireland was considered the most open of them all.

Consider all of this growth for a country which five decades earlier was a place where nearly one in every two people made their living off the land, the grip of the Catholic church was strong and faith in local industry was unquestioned. It was an Ireland that considered itself an island on its own.

By the start of 2001, however, Ireland had gone so far down the road of liberalisation that it would be difficult to find its way back. What wealth had been accumulated from the start of the Celtic Tiger was finally starting to be spent. We were building major motorway networks to connect the country and we even went as far as building a light rail system in the capital city.

The nation turned to housing as the “spatial articulation of wealth”. For many, one home was not enough. For a country tied to the fiscal and monetary unions of much larger countries, which were faring much worse in terms of economic metrics, low interest rates and easy access to money acted as the propellant to fuel a bubble that would take a full seven years to burst.

The Flood Tribunal (established in 1997 and later called the Mahon Tribunal) exposed how corrupt the new developments could be. Land zoning, planning applications and suburban sprawl were leaving permanent scars on the countryside. The wealth the country had accumulated became manifest in hotels, shoddy apartments and three-bed semi-detached houses built too far away from where everyone wanted to be.

Amid all this, Westlife were gaining international popularity, which came to its apex in 2001 when the group set off on their first world tour and released their third album, World of Our Own.

There was something almost too neat about the whole arrangement of the band. Boys from the west of Ireland – historically the part of the country most associated with emigration and with the Famine in the mid-1800s – were now being exported not as labour, but as a product. They weren’t going to England to build roads, as boys like them traditionally had; they were going to conquer the charts. The geography was the same. The power dynamic had, apparently, reversed entirely.

Except, of course, it hadn’t really reversed at all. The money, the decisions, the creative control – all of that remained firmly in London, in the hands of Cowell, a man who had identified that pop music could be industrialised like any other product. Find the ingredients, test the recipe, remove anything interesting, repeat.

What Cowell understood, better than anyone, was that the audience didn’t want to be surprised or challenged or moved in any direction they hadn’t already been moved before. They wanted the familiar, delivered with a cheeky smile.

And Westlife, to their credit, delivered the familiar with lovely smiles. They were professionally polished and almost completely without edges. Every rough corner that might have connected them to an actual place or an actual feeling had been sanded back to a smooth, radio-friendly finish.

Ireland, with all its bounty of beautiful complexity – its landscape, its history, its complicated relationship with leaving and returning – was not something that fit in a Cowell product. So it was removed.

What remained were five young men who could hold a note, sing Billy Joel’s songs, and look sincere on cue. International financial capital fuelled by Fanta did the rest, flying as it does, without wings.

Pat Collins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Westlife at 25: how the boyband emerged during Ireland’s economic boom – https://theconversation.com/westlife-at-25-how-the-boyband-emerged-during-irelands-economic-boom-281656