Category: The Conversation – UK

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Christophe Ley, Associate professor in Mathematics, University of Luxembourg

Sports coaches have always made decisions based on experience, observation and intuition. But they are increasingly relying on hard evidence. Behind the scenes, a quiet revolution is transforming sport – driven not by human skills but by data.

Wearable sensors, video trackers, GPS and health monitors now capture almost everything an athlete does. From their speed and movement to heart rate and positioning, countless data are being recorded.

But how best apply all that data?

I work at the intersection of sports, statistics and artificial intelligence, leading the Modelling, Interdisciplinary, Data, Applied, Statistics (Midas) research team at the University of Luxembourg. Our goal is simple: use data to help athletes and coaches make better decisions.

Whether that’s adjusting tactics pre-match, predicting outcomes or preventing injury, data science is changing the game.

The challenge is to make sense of this plethora of data, which comes from different sources and is of different types. And that is precisely where statistical modelling and machine learning come into play.

By finding patterns in the data – such as why a certain (over-)training has led to reduced performance or even injury, for example – we can provide actionable insights. Indeed, these insights don’t just reveal or explain what has happened, but can also predict what is going to happen – and most importantly why.

To be able to predict as accurately as possible future performances and results and to estimate the risk of injuries, we’ve developed a new approach called statistically enhanced learning (SEL) — a framework that blends statistical modelling with machine learning.

In short, statistical insights can be transformed into features that help predictive algorithms work better. Consider “team strength”. This is an abstract concept we’ve come up with to represent the team’s current playing ability. And we model it out of data from the games teams have previously played.

It isn’t meaningful to use all individual games as input to a predictive algorithm. So we first build a statistical model to estimate team strengths from all these matches (giving more weight to more recent matches), and the estimated team strengths will then be used as input for the predictive algorithm.

Think of it as giving AI smarter inputs, such that it makes smarter predictions. In our studies, this approach consistently improves accuracy and interpretability across different sports.

Working with the Metz women’s handball team, champions of France in 2025, we developed prediction models that achieved over 80% accuracy. In a recent scientific paper, we combine game information (such as day of the week the game takes place, importance of the game) and team’s structure (height, weight, age of players) with the team strengths (which we estimate based on several previous match results) and feed all this into the programme. Without the team strengths, the accuracy would drop by roughly 20%.

Crucially, these models are not black boxes. We use explainable AI techniques so coaches can understand which variables drive the predictions, helping them adjust strategy and prepare more effectively.

Preventing injuries

Another key area is injury prevention. Injuries can derail a season, or even a career. By analysing patterns in performance and workload data, we can identify early warning signs. For example, slight declines in speed, jump height or reaction time may signal that a player is at risk.

Once flagged, coaches and medical staff can step in by adjusting training, adding rest days or tailoring recovery. Instead of reacting after an injury, teams can act proactively to keep athletes healthy.

Clearly our tools do not replace coaches. Rather they enhance their decision-making, be it at the level of tactical preparation or training setup. By turning data into insight, we help teams compete smarter.

Challenges and the future

Of course, this new era brings challenges. Data quality is not always consistent. Not all clubs can afford the same technology. And ethical questions arise around data ownership and athlete privacy. But the direction of travel is clear. Data science is becoming an essential part of sport, not just for top clubs and national teams, but across all levels.

We are also expanding our collaborations. This approach can be used in various sports including football, basketball and rugby. Our aim is to make analytics more accessible, explainable and useful, so that athletes and coaches, not just data scientists, benefit from what we learn.

As fans, we see the goals, the saves, the rallies, the celebrations. What we do not see is the science behind the scenes – the models predicting outcomes, the algorithms flagging risks, the data informing every sprint and substitution.

Sport will always be about passion, talent and human drama. But increasingly, it is also about probability, precision and the quiet power of data. And that might just be one of the most important game changers of all.

Christophe Ley is co-founder of the company GrewIA and President of the Luxembourg Statistical Society.

– ref. Game changer: how data science is revolutionising athlete performance – https://theconversation.com/game-changer-how-data-science-is-revolutionising-athlete-performance-261400

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jason Hickel, Professor at the Institute for Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona

Data from the World Bank suggests that extreme poverty has declined dramatically over the past four decades, from 47% of the world’s population in 1981 to around 10% today.

This narrative is based on the World Bank’s method of calculating the share of people who live on less than US$3 per day in 2021 prices. This is adjusted for general price differences between countries (what’s known as purchasing power parity, or PPP).

But a growing body of literature argues that the World Bank’s PPP-based method has a major empirical limitation. The problem is that it does not account for the cost of meeting basic needs in any given context. Having more than US$3 PPP does not guarantee that a person can afford the specific goods and services that are necessary for survival in a particular location.

In recent years, scholars have developed what they argue is a more accurate method for measuring extreme poverty. This is done by comparing people’s incomes to the prices of essential goods (specifically food, shelter, clothing and fuel) in each country.

This approach is known as the “basic needs poverty line” (BNPL), and it more closely reflects what the original concept of extreme poverty was intended to measure. There is robust data from household consumption surveys and consumer prices covering the period from 1980-2011.

The BNPL data indicates that the story of global poverty over the past few decades is more complex – and troubling – than the World Bank narrative suggests.

This data indicates that between 1980 and 2011, the global extreme poverty rate declined by only six percentage points, from 23% to 17%. During the same period, the number of people in extreme poverty actually increased, from 1.01 billion to 1.20 billion.

What’s more, the alleviation of poverty has not been steady. In the 1980s and 1990s, an additional one billion people were thrown into extreme poverty. This occurred during the period when market reforms were implemented across most of the global south (developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America), often under pressure from western-controlled financial institutions. There was improvement throughout the 2000s, but progress has ultimately been slow and shallow.

Rising food insecurity

Robust BNPL data does not exist after 2011. However, data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization’s (FAO) surveys on food insecurity shows that the proportion of the world population without reliable access to food increased steadily during the past decade or so, going from 21% in 2014 to 30% in 2022.

This includes cases of severe food insecurity, which is associated with prolonged periods of hunger. The share of the world population suffering in this way has increased from 7.7% to 11.3%.

Given that secure access to food is central to the BNPL method, we may assume that post-2011 poverty trends have probably not improved much, if at all.

This has important implications for the United Nations’ millennium development goals. The first of these set out to halve the proportion of the world’s population living in extreme poverty between 1990 and 2015. But the data on basic-needs poverty and food insecurity indicates that this goal was probably not achieved.

Extreme poverty is not a natural condition, but a sign of severe dislocation. Data on real wages since the 15th century indicates that, under normal conditions, across different societies and eras, people are generally able to meet their subsistence needs except during periods of severe social displacement.

This includes crises like famine and war, and the institutionalised denial of resources to marginalised people, particularly under European colonialism.

What’s more, the BNPL data shows that many countries have achieved very low levels of extreme poverty, even where GDP per capita is not high. They have done this by using strategies such as public provisioning and price controls for basic essentials.

This is consistent with previous research that found that these strategies can enable better social outcomes at any level of income.

In fact, research shows that the world economy already has enough productive capacity to eliminate global poverty many times over. Indeed it is possible not only to eliminate extreme poverty, but also to eliminate deprivation at much higher thresholds.

With these levels of production, we could ensure universal access to healthcare, education, modern housing, sanitation systems, electricity, clean cooking stoves, refrigeration, mobile phones, internet, computers, transport, household appliances and other necessities for decent living standards, for more than eight billion people.

The fact that poverty persists at such high levels today indicates that severe dislocation is institutionalised in the world economy – and that markets have failed to meet the basic needs of much of humanity.

Ending extreme poverty is the first objective of the UN’s sustainable development goals. The world economy has the resources and productive capacity to realise this goal – and more. But achieving it will require organising production to guarantee universal access to the specific goods and services that people need to live decent lives.

Jason Hickel receives funding from European Research Council (ERC-2022-SYG reference number 101071647).

Dylan Sullivan receives funding from European Research Council (ERC-2022-SYG reference number 101071647).

Michail Moatsos receives funding from UKRI.

– ref. Has extreme poverty really plunged since the 1980s? New analysis suggests not – https://theconversation.com/has-extreme-poverty-really-plunged-since-the-1980s-new-analysis-suggests-not-261144

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sander van der Linden, Professor of Social Psychology in Society, University of Cambridge

Modern vaccines have saved over 150 million lives. Yet misinformation about them can still have deadly consequences. A gunman recently opened fire at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters, wrongly believing that the coronavirus vaccine had caused his depression.

Public health is increasingly being threatened by the spread of dangerous misinformation. In fact, there have been several recent cases of healthy unvaccinated children who died after contracting the highly contagious measles virus – including in July in Liverpool. Childhood vaccination rates in the UK are now at their lowest point in over a decade, well below the World Health Organization recommended threshold of 95% for herd immunity.

A key question for scientists and public health practitioners alike is how to design interventions that help reduce people’s susceptibility to health misinformation. To help accomplish this, we designed a free browser game, Bad Vaxx, that simulates social media and lets players step into the shoes of online grifters who peddle vaccine misinformation, using four common manipulation tactics.

In three experimental trials, we found that the game helps people discern significantly better between credible and misleading information about vaccinations, boosts players’ confidence in their judgments, and reduces their willingness to share vaccine-related misinformation with others.

Much research shows that once exposed, people often continue to rely on falsehoods despite having seen a debunk or fact-check. Fact-checks matter, but it’s difficult to get people to engage with science and to spread corrective information across an increasingly fractured media landscape.

Inoculating minds

Our new game draws inspiration from a more preemptive approach known as “prebunking”. Prebunking aims to prevent people from encoding misinformation into their brains in the first place.

The most common way to prebunk misinformation is through psychological inoculation – an approach that befittingly parallels the immunisation analogy. Just as the body gains immunity to infection through exposure to severely weakened doses of a viral pathogen (that is, the vaccine), so too can the mind acquire cognitive resistance to misinformation. This happens through exposure to weakened doses of the tricks used to manipulate people online, along with clear examples of how to identify and neutralise them.

One way to build immunity is to immerse people in a social media simulation. This is exactly what happens in our game, Bad Vaxx.

In a controlled setting, people are exposed to weakened doses of the main techniques used to deceive people on vaccination through humorous and entertaining scenarios where people interact with four shady characters. They include Ann McDoctal, who loves to float scary anecdotes about vaccines, Dr Forge, who fakes his expertise and gets traction by pumping out pseudoscience, Ali Natural, who promotes the naturalistic fallacy (“if it’s natural, it must be good”), and the conspiracy theorist Mystic Mac, who doubts all official narratives.

The player can choose between two competing perspectives: one, take on the role of an online manipulator to see how the sausage is made, or two, try to defeat the characters by reducing their influence.

Cognitive inoculation is thought to work, in part, by introducing a sense of threat to elicit motivation to resist propaganda, which both perspectives aim to achieve, albeit through different means. People were randomly assigned to either the “good” or “evil” version of our 15-minute game or a placebo group (who played Tetris).

We “pre-registered” our study, meaning we wrote down our hypothesis and analysis plan before collecting any data, so we couldn’t move the goalposts.

We measured effectiveness by asking people how manipulative they found vaccine misinformation embedded in social media posts, how confident they are in their judgments, and whether they intend to share the post with their networks.

We based the test on real-world misinformation that corresponded to each of the techniques featured in the game or a non-manipulative (neutral) counterpart. This was done to see if the game improves people’s ability to discern between misleading and credible content. For example, a conspiratorial post read: “Vaccine database wiped by government to hide uptick in vaccine injuries.”

In all our tests, we found that both versions of the game helped people get much better at spotting fake vaccine information. Players also became more confident in their ability to tell real from fake, and they made better decisions about what to share online. The version where you play as the “good guy” worked slightly better than the version where you play as the “bad guy”.

Boosting discernment without breeding cynicism

We also found that people became significantly better at spotting false and manipulative content without becoming sceptical of credible content that doesn’t use manipulation. In other words, players became more discerning.

Of course, the immunisation analogy should not be over-interpreted as effects of psychological interventions are generally modest and do wear off but epidemiological simulations show that when applied across millions of people, prebunking can help contain the spread of misinformation.

Although vaccination decisions are complex, much research has shown a robust link between exposure to misinformation and reduced vaccination coverage. Needless to say, misinformation about vaccines is not new. In the 1800s, anti-vaxxers falsely claimed that taking the cowpox vaccine against smallpox would turn you into a human-cow hybrid.

What’s different today is that the most influential misinformation is coming from the top, including prominent politicians and influencers, who spread thoroughly debunked claims, such as the myth that the MMR vaccine causes autism.

Empowering the public to identify pseudoscience, misdirection, and manipulation in matters of life and death is therefore crucially important. We hope that our easy-to-play, short prebunking game can be integrated into educational curriculums, used by public health officials, doctors and patients in medical settings, and feature as part of international public health campaigns on social media and beyond. After all, viruses need a susceptible host. If enough people are immunised, misinformation will no longer have a chance to spread.

Sander van der Linden has received funding from the UK Cabinet Office, Google, the American Psychological Association, the US Centers for Disease Control, EU Horizon 2020, the Templeton World Charity Foundation, and the Alfred Landecker Foundation. He has lectured and/or consulted for the WHO, UN, Meta, Google, the Global Engagement Center (US State Dept), and UK Defense and national intelligence.

Jon Roozenbeek has received funding from the UK Cabinet Office, the US State Department, the ESRC, Google, the American Psychological Association, the US Centers for Disease Control, EU Horizon 2020, the Templeton World Charity Foundation, and the Alfred Landecker Foundation.

During her time at Stanford University, Ruth Elisabeth Appel has been supported by an SAP Stanford Graduate Fellowship in Science and Engineering, a Stanford Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society PhD Research Fellowship, a Stanford Impact Labs Summer Collaborative Research Fellowship, and a Stanford Impact Labs Postdoctoral Fellowship. She has interned at Google in 2020 and attended an event where food was paid for by Meta. After completing her research at Stanford University, which forms the basis for this article, she joined Anthropic to research the economic and societal impacts of AI.

– ref. Can a game stop vaccine misinformation? This one just might – https://theconversation.com/can-a-game-stop-vaccine-misinformation-this-one-just-might-262468

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Aaron Thierry, PhD Candidate, Social Science, Cardiff University

Despite decades of scientists’ warnings about climate and ecological breakdown, record-breaking heat and escalating environmental disasters have become commonplace. Science has been attacked, dismissed and politicised, and the world is accelerating in a terrifying direction.

To scientists this can feel particularly overwhelming. So what can we do?

Scientific knowledge alone hasn’t generated the urgent societal action many scientists expected. Therefore, to protect ourselves, future generations and countless other species, some scientists have started to reflect on their tactics. Not prepared to be neutral in the face of such an all encompassing threat, scientists like us have been asking what our role should be in an era when our planet’s life support systems are crumbling so rapidly, while governments and officials pour fuel on the flames.

Answering this question has led some of us to join social movements and take part in peaceful protests. Three years ago, a group of scientists were arrested in the course of protesting the UK government’s decisions to licence new oil fields. We were among the lab-coat wearing protesters who took the science to the government that day, pasting huge posters explaining the dangers of new fossil fuels onto the windows of the department that was committing us to them for decades to come.

It was a surreal experience, recently documented in the short film Plan Z: From Lab Coats to Handcuffs (2024) and a book called Scientists on Survival: Personal Stories of Climate Action (2025).

While taking a visible, public stand against harmful decisions can be a provocative and effective route for scientists to push for change, it isn’t the only way we can be effective advocates. Recent surveys reveal that there is a great appetite from scientists to be more involved in social movements, but many face barriers to participation and often don’t know where to start or how best to contribute.

In our recent article published in the journal npj Climate Action in collaboration with our colleague and science communicator Abi Perrin, we explore how scientists across all disciplines, backgrounds and career stages can get involved in activism in a range of practical ways. Whatever your strengths and limitations (depending on your status and which country you live), there are many positive ways to engage.

From silos to society

Currently scientific disciplines can be quite isolated from one another, and scientists generally aren’t very prominent in the public domain. We might feel restricted to speaking to our own very specific expertise but a scientist’s job involves understanding complex information, converting and communicating it into simpler, more useful forms.

Scientists can communicate about climate and nature, even without writing a PhD thesis on it. And we can be very powerful when we do: scientists are still widely trusted.

Politicians need to listen to scientists, not just the lobbyists. This is why engaging directly with MPs (or equivalents) is a route more scientists like us are taking. For instance, scientists in the UK have been important and prominent champions of the Climate and Nature Bill currently being debated in the House of Commons.

Social movements need scientists too. We can use our research and communication skills to inform and improve campaigns, bringing them to a wider audience. This support adds credibility to campaigns. We can also analyse what works to investigate, for example, the effectiveness of different activism strategies and targets in a range of contexts.

Academics have also supported activist campaigns against destructive infrastructure development by speaking at public hearings, as well as providing expert witness testimonies for activists in court for acts of protest.

Scientists can also push for cultural and policy change within our own institutions, including research institutions, science academies and professional bodies. This might include cutting ties to the fossil fuel industry, reorienting research and teaching to focus on sustainable development or accelerating the decarbonisation of campus activities.

We can support colleagues and students who engage in protests and encourage peers and leaders to do the same. It is easier to take action when you know you are not acting alone.

It’s more important than ever that our professional bodies and institutions are emboldened by their membership to advocate for the public good that science brings, and the need to defend academic freedom, recognising that often means speaking truth to power.

Collective action is crucial. We can all seek out allies, organise among peers and build powerful coalitions, rather than hoping science will passively translate into change. Time is of the essence.

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This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

Aaron Thierry receives funding from ESRC. He is affiliated with Scientists for Extinction Rebellion.

Tristram Wyatt is affiliated with Scientists for Extinction Rebellion.

– ref. How scientists can contribute to social movements and climate action – https://theconversation.com/how-scientists-can-contribute-to-social-movements-and-climate-action-261959

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Iris Mikulic, Research Assistant, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet

You have probably heard the phrase “follow your gut” – often used to mean trusting your instinct and intuition. But in the context of the gut-brain axis, the phrase takes on a more literal meaning. Scientific research increasingly shows that the brain and gut are in constant, two-way communication. Once overlooked, this connection is now at the forefront of growing interest in neuroscience, nutrition and mental health.

The gut–brain axis is a highly complex system of interconnected pathways that relay information through diverse signals. Previous research has suggested that gut inflammation may contribute to the development of dementia. This may occur through to the triggering of systemic inflammation and the disruption of the pathways between the gut and the brain.

While interest in the gut-brain axis has grown rapidly, there is still limited understanding of whether intestinal inflammation might accelerate cognitive decline in people who already have dementia.

IBD and dementia connection

Our study explored this under-researched question, aiming to expand understanding in this area and improve the care of those affected. We focused on people who had already been diagnosed with both dementia and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

Dementia refers to a group of neurological disorders with different underlying causes, all characterised by progressive cognitive decline and increasing loss of independent function.

It is a growing global health concern, with the number of diagnoses rising steadily around the world. Older age remains the most significant risk factor for developing the condition.

In 2024, the FDA approved donanemab, a second novel drug aimed at slowing the progression of early-stage Alzheimer’s disease – the most common form of dementia. However, there is still no cure, and current treatments are primarily focused on managing symptoms.

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a complex, chronic inflammatory condition affecting the gastrointestinal tract. It includes Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and IBD-unclassified (also called indeterminate IBD), which refers to cases where symptoms and clinical findings do not clearly fit the criteria for either Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis.

IBD is typically characterised by symptoms such as abdominal pain, diarrhoea and changes in bowel habits. However, because it can have systemic (extra-intestinal) effects, the condition can also affect other parts of the body, including the skin, eyes, joints and liver but can also cause general fatigue.

IBD should not be confused with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), which is a common functional condition of the gastrointestinal tract. IBS can cause similar symptoms – such as abdominal pain and changes in bowel habits – however, unlike IBD, there are no changes in gut tissue.

While there is currently no cure for IBD, except in ulcerative colitis, where, in some select cases, surgery may be curative, IBD can often be managed with (anti-inflammatory) medications and lifestyle changes.

IBD is a global health problem. Worldwide, between 1990 and 2021, new cases increased across all age groups, with the biggest jump seen in people aged 50 to 54. The smallest increase occurred in children under five. Importantly, IBD can be diagnosed from early childhood to later life, but in older adults, among others, symptoms can be mistaken for other conditions – potentially delaying diagnosis and treatment.

For our study, we used data from the Swedish Registry for Cognitive/Dementia Disorders (SveDem) – a comprehensive national quality registry that holds detailed medical information on people with various forms of dementia across Sweden. From this database, we identified people who were diagnosed with IBD after their dementia diagnosis. We then compared 111 people who had both dementia and newly diagnosed IBD with a control group of 1,110 people who had dementia but no IBD diagnosis. The two groups were closely matched for age, gender, type of dementia, other health conditions and medication use.

Measuring cognitive decline

To measure changes in cognitive function, we used the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score. The MMSE is a standardised test made up of 11 tasks, with a maximum score of 30 points. It is widely used by healthcare professionals to assess memory, attention, language and other aspects of cognitive performance, particularly when dementia is suspected. People without dementia typically score between 25 and 30, while those with dementia often score below 24.

In our study, we compared MMSE scores between the two groups. We also looked at changes in MMSE scores before and after the IBD diagnosis in people who had both dementia and IBD. Our results showed that those with both conditions experienced a significantly faster decline in cognitive function. This decline became more noticeable after the IBD diagnosis. On average, people with both diagnoses lost nearly one additional MMSE point per year compared to those with dementia alone. This level of decline is comparable to the difference seen between people with dementia who take the new Alzheimer’s drug donanemab and those who do not.

Our findings suggest that IBD – and the systemic inflammation it causes – may contribute to a faster worsening of cognitive function. This highlights the need for closer monitoring of people with both conditions. Managing IBD effectively through anti-inflammatory medications, nutritional support and in some cases surgery, might potentially help reduce neuroinflammation, thereby slowing the progression of dementia.

While our results indicate that cognitive decline was significantly faster in people with both dementia and newly diagnosed IBD, it is important to note that this was an observational study, so we cannot establish direct causality. The study also had some limitations. For instance, we lacked data on IBD severity and the specific treatments patients were receiving. We also did not explore differences by gender, dementia subtype, or IBD subtype.

Additionally, since dementia is typically diagnosed in older age, the elderly onset IBD cases may have been underdiagnosed. Finally, while SveDem is a valuable national registry, it does not yet include all newly diagnosed dementia cases in Sweden.

Understanding how IBD influences the brain could open the door to new strategies for protecting cognitive health in older adults. Furthermore, identifying whether specific IBD treatments can slow cognitive decline may benefit people living with both conditions and could help with the refinement of care for this vulnerable patient population.

Hong Xu receives funding from the Swedish Research Council (Starting grant#2022-01428) and the Center for Innovative Medicine Foundation (CIMED, FoUI-1002840).

Jonas F. Ludvigsson has coordinated an unrelated study on behalf of the Swedish IBD quality register (SWIBREG). That study received funding from Janssen corporation. Dr Ludvigsson has also received financial support from Merck/MSD for an unrelated study on IBD; and for developing a paper reviewing national healthcare registers in China. Dr Ludvigsson has also an ongoing research collaboration on celiac disease with Takeda.

Iris Mikulic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How inflammatory bowel disease may accelerate the progression of dementia – https://theconversation.com/how-inflammatory-bowel-disease-may-accelerate-the-progression-of-dementia-260904

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Graham Finlayson, Professor of Psychobiology, University of Leeds

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) have become public enemy number one in nutrition debates. From dementia to obesity and an epidemic of “food addiction”, these factory-made products, including crisps, ready meals, fizzy drinks and packaged snacks, are blamed for a wide range of modern health problems. Some experts argue that they’re “specifically formulated and aggressively marketed to maximise consumption and corporate profits”, hijacking our brain’s reward systems to make us eat beyond our needs.

Policymakers have proposed bold interventions: warning labels, marketing restrictions, taxes, even outright bans near schools. But how much of this urgency is based on solid evidence?

My colleagues and I wanted to step back and ask: what actually makes people like a food? And what drives them to overeat – not just enjoy it, but keep eating after hunger has passed? We studied more than 3,000 UK adults and their responses to over 400 everyday foods. What we found challenges the simplistic UPF narrative and offers a more nuanced way forward.

Two ideas often get blurred in nutrition discourse: liking a food and hedonic overeating (eating for pleasure rather than hunger). Liking is about taste. Hedonic overeating is about continuing to eat because the food feels good. They’re related, but not identical. Many people like porridge but rarely binge on it. Chocolate, biscuits and ice cream, on the other hand, top both lists.

We conducted three large online studies where participants rated photos of unbranded food portions for how much they liked them and how likely they were to overeat them. The foods were recognisable items from a typical UK shopping basket: jacket potatoes, apples, noodles, cottage pie, custard creams – more than 400 in total.

We then compared these responses with three things: the foods’ nutritional content (fat, sugar, fibre, energy density), their classification as ultra-processed by the widely used Nova system – a food classification method that groups foods by the extent and purpose of their processing – and how people perceived them (sweet, fatty, processed, healthy and so on).

Perception power

Some findings were expected: people liked foods they ate often, and calorie-dense foods were more likely to lead to overeating.

But the more surprising insight came from the role of beliefs and perceptions. Nutrient content mattered – people rated high-fat, high-carb foods as more enjoyable, and low-fibre, high-calorie foods as more “bingeable”. But what people believed about the food also mattered, a lot.

Perceiving a food as sweet, fatty or highly processed increased the likelihood of overeating, regardless of its actual nutritional content. Foods believed to be bitter or high in fibre had the opposite effect.

In one survey, we could predict 78% of the variation in people’s likelihood of overeating by combining nutrient data (41%) with beliefs about the food and its sensory qualities (another 38%).

In short: how we think about food affects how we eat it, just as much as what’s actually in it.

This brings us to ultra-processed foods. Despite the intense scrutiny, classifying a food as “ultra-processed” added very little to our predictive models.

Once we accounted for nutrient content and food perceptions, the Nova classification explained less than 2% of the variation in liking and just 4% in overeating.

That’s not to say all UPFs are harmless. Many are high in calories, low in fibre and easy to overconsume. But the UPF label is a blunt instrument. It lumps together sugary soft drinks with fortified cereals, protein bars with vegan meat alternatives.

Some of these products may be less healthy, but others can be helpful – especially for older adults with low appetites, people on restricted diets or those seeking convenient nutrition.

The message that all UPFs are bad oversimplifies the issue. People don’t eat based on food labels alone. They eat based on how a food tastes, how it makes them feel and how it fits with their health, social or emotional goals.

Relying on UPF labels to shape policy could backfire. Warning labels might steer people away from foods that are actually beneficial, like wholegrain cereals, or create confusion about what’s genuinely unhealthy.

Instead, we recommend a more informed, personalised approach:

• Boost food literacy: help people understand what makes food satisfying, what drives cravings, and how to recognise their personal cues for overeating.

• Reformulate with intention: design food products that are enjoyable and filling, rather than relying on bland “diet” options or ultra-palatable snacks.

• Address eating motivations: people eat for many reasons beyond hunger – for comfort, connection and pleasure. Supporting alternative habits while maximising enjoyment could reduce dependence on low-quality foods.

It’s not just about processing

Some UPFs do deserve concern. They’re calorie dense, aggressively marketed and often sold in oversized portions. But they’re not a smoking gun.

Labelling entire categories of food as bad based purely on their processing misses the complexity of eating behaviour. What drives us to eat and overeat is complicated but not beyond understanding. We now have the data and models to unpack those motivations and support people in building healthier, more satisfying diets.

Ultimately, the nutritional and sensory characteristics of food – and how we perceive them – matter more than whether something came out of a packet. If we want to encourage better eating habits, it’s time to stop demonising food groups and start focusing on the psychology behind our choices.

Graham Finlayson has received funding from Horizon Europe, UKRI and Slimming World, UK.

James Stubbs consults to Slimming World UK. He receives funding from UKRI.

– ref. Ultra-processed foods might not be the real villain in our diets – here’s what our research found – https://theconversation.com/ultra-processed-foods-might-not-be-the-real-villain-in-our-diets-heres-what-our-research-found-261867

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shooka Bidarian, Media and Journalism Fellow, Sustainability and Climate at United Nations University Institute of Water Health and Environment, United Nations University

From arid deserts and alpine meadows to dense wetlands and temperate forests, Iran’s natural landscapes give rise to rich native wildlife. This country is home to over 8,000 species of plants, nearly 500 bird species and 194 mammals. The UN has listed 13 special ecological areas, including salt lakes and marshlands, that support huge numbers of migratory birds.

But this rich natural heritage is under growing threat. The Asiatic cheetah, once widespread across west Asia, is now confined to desert reserves in central Iran, with fewer than 50 remaining.

The Persian onager, a wild ass native to Iran’s deserts, struggles on with just 600–700 animals remaining, displaced by both water scarcity and livestock. And the Siberian crane, once a seasonal visitor, has vanished from the Iranian landscape entirely. The last known individual, a male named Omid, was last spotted over three years ago.

Iran’s accelerating biodiversity crisis is a warning sign, but it does not exist in isolation. The country’s ecosystems are under siege not only from species loss, but also from deeper, systemic environmental pressures.

Chief among these is a worsening water crisis. This is now widely recognised by researchers as a case of “water bankruptcy”, where unsustainable demand has long outstripped the country’s renewable water resources.

Due to the Iran-Iraq war, international isolation and sanctions since the 1980s, the government has driven policies to make the country’s food system more self-sufficient. They have promoted growing crops such as wheat and rice, which are water-intensive and ill-suited to Iran’s arid climate.

Today, more than 90% of Iran’s water is allocated to agriculture, primarily to grow these water-hungry crops in some of the driest parts of the country. The consequences have been stark: land degradation, the erosion of rural livelihoods and a deepening cycle of poverty and environmental decline.

Poor water governance and inappropriate farming have driven the depletion of aquifers (underground layers of porous rock saturated with groundwater) and the drying out of rivers and wetlands. This has placed mounting stress on communities and local economies.

These challenges are compounded by entrenched interests and fragmented institutions’ oversight, and bureaucracies that are competing for control of the limited water supplies. In such a landscape, meaningful reform and equitable distribution become difficult, if not impossible.

Poverty, migration and dysfunctional institutions are causing widespread food insecurity. Without coherent, transparent governance and a long-term vision for environmental stewardship, Iran’s water crisis threatens to undermine both public welfare and national economic stability.

Environmental advocacy in Iran faces formidable legal and political barriers. Civil society organisations have confidentially told us they often struggle to formally register due to restrictive state permitting systems. This limits their ability to operate independently or engage in effective community mobilisation. Meanwhile, independent conservation efforts have come under increasing scrutiny by the Iranian government.

In 2018, several conservationists from the Persian Wildlife Heritage Foundation, a not-for-profit organisation, were arrested on national security charges, despite no credible evidence. This move was widely condemned by international human rights organisations.

These arrests were central to the documentary Tears of Extinction (written and presented by one of us, Shooka Bidarian) that highlighted how, without these conservation efforts, the Asiatic cheetahs would face extinction within a few years.

From challenge to reform

The prosecutions and prolonged detentions have contributed to a chilling effect, discouraging other scientists and conservation organisations from engaging in environmental work due to fears of surveillance and reprisal. This concern was publicly echoed by Issa Kalantari, then vice-president and head of Iran’s Department of Environment, who stated that “if we knew they were spies, we would have treated them differently” and admitted the arrests caused environmental activities across the country to freeze.

Despite the severity of Iran’s environmental challenges, experts from the United Nations University and colleagues have outlined actionable reforms. These range from modernising irrigation systems and adjusting water pricing to enhancing data transparency and embracing participatory, decentralised governance.

Long-term resilience also requires adaptive planning that integrates climate variability and social vulnerability into national water strategies. These aren’t radical ideas. These approaches have been proven to work well in other water-stressed regions such as Australia.

To protect Iran’s ecosystems and ensure their survival for future generations, the country needs new approaches to environment governance. This needs to include sustained, science-led conservation, supported by international collaboration and local participation.

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Shooka Bidarian is affiliated with United Nations University and The Climate Reality Project

Mark Maslin is Pro-Vice Provost of the UCL Climate Crisis Grand Challenge and Founding Director of the UCL Centre for Sustainable Aviation. He was co-director of the London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and is a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. He is an advisor to Sheep Included Ltd, Lansons, NetZeroNow and has advised the UK Parliament. He has received grant funding from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, DFG, Royal Society, DIFD, BEIS, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Research England, Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust, CIFF, Sprint2020, and British Council. He has received funding from the BBC, Lancet, Laithwaites, Seventh Generation, Channel 4, JLT Re, WWF, Hermes, CAFOD, HP and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.

– ref. Iran’s nature is under threat – here’s how better environmental stewardship can save it – https://theconversation.com/irans-nature-is-under-threat-heres-how-better-environmental-stewardship-can-save-it-260458

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel Gettings, Sessional Tutor, Department of History, University of Warwick

A year ago, French newspaper Le Monde and Radio France broke a scandal in big water – Perrier was filtering its product. The filtering began due to worries about water contamination linked to climate change and pollution of spring sources.

It was also revealed that executives at parent company Nestle and French government ministers tried to keep it all quiet. They allegedly covered up reports of contamination and changed the rules to allow micro-filtration.

Under EU law, for a brand to market their products as “natural mineral water” it has to remain unaltered. French mineral water companies are now awaiting a ruling on what level of filtration is considered illegal “treatment”. The result could mean that, after 160 years, Perrier will no longer be able to be call its product “natural mineral water”.

Strikingly, the same issue was debated extensively by scientists during the 18th-century European spring water boom. These men considered the effects of human intervention on the product and what was lost in the process.

A spa boom

In the 17th and 18th centuries, medical interest, in addition to factors like travel for leisure, resulted in the proliferation of new spa towns across Europe.

In England, Buxton and Tunbridge Wells developed in the 1620s and 1660s respectively, while Harrogate, Cheltenham and Leamington came in the 1710s, 1750s and 1790s. Historical survey’s place the number of spas and wells offering healing mineral waters at around 350 in the 18th-century heyday.

Spas like Bath, Buxton and the Bristol Hotwell were thermal, offering hot bathing. However, other spa sources in England were not heated. This meant that those who wished to bathe had to do so in the cold, which was both undesirable, and at that time, considered dangerous. This was due to fears that the English cold climate, when combined with bodily exposure to cold water, could disrupt bodily rhythms an cause illness.

As a result, many of the cold spas focused on offering health benefits through drinking their waters. When hailing the qualities of the newly discovered waters at Scarborough in 1660, Yorkshire doctor Robert Wittie declared they had “gained such credit” that people: “Come above an hundred miles to drink of it, preferring it to all other medicinal waters they had formerly frequented.”

He later described the health benefits he gained from drinking them:

I had lost two pound and a half of my weight… I found after it better agility of body, and alacrity of spirit then before.

In 1654, the doctor Edmund Deane had similarly described the effects of the waters of Knaresborough: “Those waters at the Spaw doe presently heal, and (as it were) miraculously cure diseases, which are without all hope of recovery.”

Testing the waters

As the number of spas grew, so did the options for consumers. As a result, the 18th century saw increasing attention and experimentation on mineral waters by scientists. Rather than questioning the health benefits, they instead compared waters to one another, experimenting on them to determine processes that produced and changed healing properties.

For example, British doctor George Turner, who translated and expanded upon a German work about the spa of Bad Pyrmont, in 1733. His work discussed experiments on the waters of the spa and the minerals that could be determined within. It noted that if left standing, the carbonated water lost its potency: “Whence it is, that so spiritous a liquid does so easily turn to a flat insipid water.”

He also suggested that boiling caused mineral waters to lose some invisible element important to its proper function. “Why so many globules of air arise out of mineral waters when it is warmed?” he asked, only to conclude that when “spirits fly out of any liquid” they go “incognito without any tumult”. As they “flew”, so too did whatever gave these waters healing properties, making chemical recreation in a lab impossible.

Historians of science have suggested that works like this foregrounded the concept of “gas”, which came more conclusively later in the century.

During experiments on the Scarborough waters, doctor Peter Shaw and natural scientist Stephen Hales each sought to determine the nature of the “subtle sulphurous spirit” in which they felt the “principal virtue of the Chalybeate (flavoured with iron) Waters resided”.

Similar experiments also involved extensive filtering, with physician John Nott in 1793 adding solutions to the waters of Italy’s Pisa and France’s Verdun before filtering them and performing further tests on “what remains in the filter”.

Scottish physician, Thomas Short, had concluded previously that filtering waters was both an important natural process. He described “the several strange alterations that water undergoes, by being strained through different strata of minerals”. But also that the body inherently filtered “raw” mineral waters through its skin when bathing, allowing only those smaller minerals in to provide the health effect, he claimed.

These scientists used their burgeoning chemical understanding to conclude that processes performed on waters fundamentally changed them, going from “spiritous” cures to “flat insipid water”. Even lacking the full knowledge or vocabulary to express why, they felt their processes and tools were incapable of recreating the waters of nature.

Legacies of these ideas can be seen in our changing attitudes to food and drink. Modern branding and consumer value is placed on a lack of processing. We are increasingly concerned with capturing and consuming the natural as it is, before human intervention has muddied it.

In so doing, we continue the ideas of those concerned with mineral waters all that time ago. By filtering their waters, no matter how little Perrier claim it affected them, we feel as though some spirit of the natural has perhaps been lost.

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Daniel Gettings does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is mineral water ‘natural’ if it’s filtered? The debate gripping France today has raged since the 18th-century – https://theconversation.com/is-mineral-water-natural-if-its-filtered-the-debate-gripping-france-today-has-raged-since-the-18th-century-263149

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Patricia Justino, Professor and Deputy Director, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations University

A recent Europe-wide survey has revealed an alarming picture: fewer than six in ten young Europeans believe that democracy is the best form of government. One in five say they would support authoritarian rule under certain circumstances. And only 6% believe their political system functions well.

This suggests something more than disillusionment: the foundational trust democracy relies on is eroding. Why are young people losing faith in democracy? And what will it take to restore it?

Trust in democracy begins with trust in its institutions: governments, courts and public services. When these institutions are seen as unresponsive, unaccountable or unfair, confidence in democracy falters.

The UN World Social Report 2025, which I co-authored, shows that institutional trust is declining globally. This shift is most pronounced among the young: according to latest available barometer data, over a quarter of those born in the 1990s report having no trust at all in their governments. This figure is around 17% for those over 65 years old. This is not a temporary dip. This is a generational shift in how citizens relate to power.

For many years, Europe seemed to defy this trend compared to other regions. Younger generations were more trusting of institutions than their elders. But that pattern has reversed. Today, they are more sceptical, more disillusioned – and more open to alternatives.

Why democracy feels broken

At the heart of this crisis lies inequality, insecurity and eroding trust.

First, persistent inequality widens social distances between social groups, fueling resentment and a belief that the system is rigged. While income inequality in Europe has not risen as sharply as elsewhere, this masks growing generational gaps. According to the IMF, incomes for working-age Europeans have stagnated since the 2007-08 financial crisis. Young people now have the lowest median incomes of any age group, even as pensioners’ incomes have grown.

Economic insecurity compounds the sense that wealth and opportunity are unequally distributed. Many young Europeans feel stuck, unable to afford housing, build stable careers or plan their futures. In the Young Europe 2025 survey, more than one-third say that ensuring affordable living costs should be a top political priority. Yet, the institutions meant to provide security and opportunity are often seen as ineffective and out of touch.

My research confirms that perceived inequality and insecurity are among the strongest predictors of distrust. When institutions fail to protect people from risk or deliver on promises, the social contract that underpins democracy unravels.

The generational bargain of progress is breaking down. Many young Europeans no longer believe democracy guarantees upward mobility or protects their dignity. This disillusionment has been compounded by the crises that have defined their coming of age: from the migrant crisis, the pandemic and climate anxiety to the war in Ukraine, these shocks have shaken faith in institutions’ ability to respond to uncertainty.

How to rebuild trust in democracy

Trust will not be restored by rhetoric alone. Democracy must prove it can deliver tangible results.

This means meeting the basic expectations of younger generations: affordable housing, decent work, a habitable planet and meaningful participation in political processes.

One of the most effective ways to rebuild trust is through universal, inclusive social protection. Where public services are seen as fair, accessible and reliable, trust in institutions tends to be stronger. Social protection is not just a safety net. It is a visible signal that the state works for everyone, not just the privileged few. Governments serious about restoring legitimacy should start here.

But protection must also be inclusive across generations. Across Europe, pension spending remains high while the programmes young people rely on – unemployment insurance, housing support, childcare – are often underfunded across European countries.

Europe’s rapidly-aging population means younger generations will be outnumbered at the ballot box for the foreseeable future. Policies must consciously account for this disparity and ensure that the needs of young people are not sidelined.

Young Europeans are not rejecting democracy because they prefer authoritarianism. They are rejecting a version that feels unaccountable, unresponsive and unfair.

We have seen what happens when democratic decay goes unchecked: divisions deepen, civic space shrinks and authoritarianism takes root. Trust can be rebuilt. But it requires political courage, inclusive institutions and social protection systems that reflect young people’s realities. Democracy cannot run on nostalgia. It must prove that it works for everyone. Young people are asking to be taken seriously, to be heard, respected and given a stake in the future. We would do well to listen.

Patricia Justino does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Young Europeans are losing faith in democracy – here’s how to earn it back – https://theconversation.com/young-europeans-are-losing-faith-in-democracy-heres-how-to-earn-it-back-261193

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Catherine Loveday, Professor, Neuropsychology, University of Westminster

When I ask a lecture theatre full of students how they would feel if they could never listen to a piece of music again, most are horrified. Many have been plugged into their headphones until the moment the class begins. But without fail, one or two will shyly admit that their lives would not change at all if music didn’t exist.

Psychologists call this “music anhedonia”, meaning an absence of pleasure for music. And a new paper from neuroscientists in Spain and Canada suggests it is caused by a problem with communication between different parts of the brain.

For many of us, apathy towards music seems unfathomable. Yet, for 5%-10% of the population, this is their norm.

I see it often in my own research and practice in people with memory loss, where I ask people to select favourite songs as a way of accessing significant memories.

It has always fascinated me that some people look at me blankly and say, “I’ve never been that bothered by music”. It is such a contrast to the majority who love to talk about their first record, or the tune played at their wedding.

Recent evidence shows considerable variation in the depth of people’s emotional response to music. Around 25% of the population are hyperhedonic, which is an almost obsessive urge to engage intensely and frequently with music.

Research in this field typically uses the Barcelona Music Reward Questionnaire (BMRQ), which asks people about the significance of music in daily life: how often they listen to records, whether they hum along, and if there are songs that give them a shiver down the spine.

Low scorers are classified as having music anhedonia and many researchers further verify this in the lab by measuring heart rate, sweat response and breathing while music is playing. For most of us, these physiological markers change dramatically during emotional songs. But in those with music anhedonia, there are often no physiological effects at all.

One theory is that reduced enjoyment for music may reflect a more generalised anhedonia, an absence of pleasure for anything. Often, this is linked to disruption to the reward pathways in the brain, in areas such as the nucleus accumbens, orbitofrontal cortex and insula.

It is a common feature of depression, which, along with other mood disorders, can correlate with a lack of response to music . However, this does not explain specific music anhedonia, where people happily enjoy other rewards such as food, socialising and films, but remain indifferent to music.

An alternative possibility is that people with reduced interest in music simply don’t understand it, perhaps due to difficulties with processing melody and harmony. To test this, we can look at people with amusia – a deficit in music perception, which affects the ability to identify familiar tunes or detect wrong notes. This occurs when there is reduced activity in key regions in the frontotemporal cortex in the brain, which handles complex processing of pitch and melody. However, some people with the condition have an extreme and obsessional love of music.

In any case, other research shows that those with music anhedonia often have normal musical perception, with no problem recognising songs or distinguishing major from minor chords.

So, what is going on? The new paper provides a detailed analysis of all the research in this field to date. The researchers explain that while the brain networks underlying music perception and reward are both intact in people with music anhedonia, the communication between them is severely disrupted. There is little to no traffic between the auditory processing parts of the brain and the reward centre.

People with typical responses to music have significant activity in this pathway, which is higher for pleasant music than for neutral sounds. A 2018 study showed that you can increase music-induced pleasure by artificially stimulating these communication tracts using magnetic pulses.

The new analysis may give scientists insights into clinical conditions where everyday rewards seem to be reduced or enhanced, for example eating disorders, sex addictions and gambling problems.

These findings also challenge the common assumption that everyone loves music. Most people do, but not all, and the variation comes down to differences in the wiring of the brain. Sometimes it follows brain injury, but more often people are born this way, and a March 2025 study found evidence of a genetic link.

Music is everywhere – in shops, gyms, restaurants, healthcare settings – and it can be incredibly powerful. But perhaps we should resist the urge to see it as a panacea and respect the fact that for some, silence is golden.

Catherine Loveday does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Some people just don’t like music – it may be down to their brain wiring – https://theconversation.com/some-people-just-dont-like-music-it-may-be-down-to-their-brain-wiring-263066