Category: The Conversation – UK

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natalia Levina, Professor, Department of Information Systems Management & Analytics, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick; New York University

Being able to instantly and accurately predict the trajectory of a person’s health in the years to come has long been seen as the pinnacle of medicine. This kind of information would have a profound effect on healthcare systems as a whole – shifting care from treatment to prevention.

According to the findings of a recently published paper, researchers are promising just that. Using cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the researchers built Delphi-2M. This tool is seeking to predict a person’s next health event and when it’s likely to happen in the next 20 years. The model does this for a thousand different diseases including cancer, diabetes and heart disease.

To develop Delphi-2M, the European research team used data from nearly 403,000 people from the UK Biobank as an input into the AI model.

In the final trained AI model, Delphi-2M predicted the next disease and when it would occur based on a person’s sex at birth, their body mass index, whether they smoked or drank alcohol, and their timeline of prior diseases.

It was able to make these predictions with a 0.7 AUC (area under the curve). AUC aggregates false positive and false negative rates, so can be used as a proxy for accuracy in a theoretical setting. This means the model’s predictions could be interpreted to have about 70% accuracy across all disease categories – although the accuracy of these predictions have not yet been tested in terms of real-world outcomes.

They then applied the model to Danish Biobank data to see whether it was still effective. It was able to predict health outcomes with similar theoretical accuracy rates.

AI tools

The purpose of the paper wasn’t to suggest the Delphi-2M is ready to be used by doctors or in the medical field. Rather, it was to illustrate the power of the team’s proposed AI architecture, and the benefit it could have in analysing medical data.

Delphi-2M uses a “transformer network” to make its predictions. This is the same technology architecture that powers ChatGPT. The researchers modified the GPT2 transformer architecture to use time and disease features to predict when and what will happen.

Although other health prediction models have used transformer networks in the past, these were only designed to make predictions about a person’s risk of developing a single disease. Plus, they were primarily used on smaller-scale hospital record data.

But transformer networks are particularly well-suited for predicting a person’s risk of multiple diseases. This is because they can adapt their focus easily and are able to work out complex interactions between many different diseases from multiple distinct data points.

Delphi-2M has also proven to be slightly more accurate than other multi-disease prediction models which use a different architecture.

For example, Milton uses a combination of standard machine learning techniques and applied them to the same UK Biobank data. This model showed somewhat lower predictive power for most diseases compared with Delphi-2M – and needed to use more data to do so.

Moreover, non-transformer models are hard for others to improve by adding more data layers. This means these models cannot be as easily adapted and improved upon as transformer models for use in different contexts and studies.

What’s special about the Delphi-2M model is that it can be released to the public as an open-source model without compromising patients’ privacy. The authors were able to create synthetic data that mimics the UK Biobank data while removing personally identifiable information – all without a significant drop in predictive power. Moreover, Delphi-2M requires less computing resources to train than typical AI transformer models.

This will allow other researchers to train the model from scratch and possibly tailor the model and information for their needs. This is important for the advancement of open science and is generally difficult to do in medical settings.

Still too early

Whether or not Delphi-2M becomes the foundation model for AI tools that are designed to predict a patient’s future health risks, it demonstrates that models such as this are on the way.

Due to its layered architecture and open-source nature, future models similar to Delphi-2M will continue to evolve by incorporating even richer data – such as electronic health records, medical images, wearable technologies and location data. This would improve its predictive powers and accuracy over time.

But while the ability to prevent diseases and provide early diagnosis holds great promise, there are a few key caveats when it comes to this predictive tool.

First, there are numerous data-related concerns associated with such tools. As we have written before, the quality of data and training that an AI tool receives makes or breaks its predictions.

The UK Biobank dataset used to create Delphi-2M didn’t have sufficient data on diverse races and ethnic groups to allow for in-depth training and performance analysis.

While some analysis was performed by the Delphi-2M researchers to show that adding ethnicity and race didn’t sway the results too much, there was still insufficient data in many categories to even conduct the assessment.

If ever used in the real world, personal healthcare data will probably be used and layered on top of foundation models such as Delphi-2M. While the inclusion of this personal data will improve prediction accuracy, it also comes with risks – for example, around personal data security and out-of-context use of the data.

It may also be difficult to scale the model to countries whose healthcare systems differ from those that are used to design the dataset. For instance, it may be harder to apply Delphi-2M to the US context, where healthcare data is spread around multiple hospital systems and private clinics.

At present, it’s too early for Delphi-2M to be used by patients or doctors. While Delphi-2M provided generalised predictions based on the data that was used to train it, it’s too early to use these predictions for personalised health recommendations for an individual patient.

But hopefully, with continued investment into researching and building Delphi-2M-style models, it will someday be possible to input a patient’s personal health data into the model and get a personalised prediction.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. An AI tool is trying to predict your risk of getting many diseases years in advance – here’s how it works – https://theconversation.com/an-ai-tool-is-trying-to-predict-your-risk-of-getting-many-diseases-years-in-advance-heres-how-it-works-265909

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Leonie Fleischmann, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, City St George’s, University of London

Since the White House released Donald Trump’s plan to end the Gaza conflict on September 29, the chances of an end to Israel’s war on Gaza is as high as they have ever been. If it succeeds, the idea of a Palestinian state being established alongside Israel will also be on the table for the first time in decades.

Palestinians were notably excluded from drafting the plan, and no measures exist to hold Israel accountable for the destruction it has caused. But the 20-point plan includes clauses that could eventually lead to Palestinian self-determination.

Under the terms of the plan, Palestinians will be allowed to remain in Gaza and there will be an amnesty for militants who commit to peaceful coexistence once the deal is agreed. Israel has committed not to occupy or annex Gaza. The plan also acknowledges the Palestinian people’s aspiration for self-determination and statehood and says a pathway to achieve that may be achievable under certain conditions.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he supports the plan. But on his return to Israel, he said Palestinian statehood was not written into the agreement and that Israel would “forcibly resist” the establishment of a Palestinian state. The US president’s deal will have to be approved in a vote of Netanyahu’s cabinet. It has already come in for severe criticism from at least one cabinet member: Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich described the deal as a “resounding diplomatic failure” that will “end in tears”.

---

Read more:
Where does the Arab and Muslim world stand on Trump’s Gaza peace plan? Expert Q&A

---

For Hamas, too, the plan crosses a number of red lines. Reports suggest that Hamas faces an existential dilemma. On one hand the plan explicitly removes any role for Hamas in the future governance of Gaza. On the other, the US president has said that a Hamas rejection would give Israel the green light to continue their military onslaught.

So, whether the next steps are a ceasefire or the continued destruction of Gaza, what has become clear is that time is running out for Hamas as rulers of the Palestinian people in Gaza. This raises the question of who could take over the reins of government for Palestinians.

The obvious answer is the Palestinian Authority (PA), which holds leadership of the Palestinians in the West Bank. The PA was formed by the Oslo Accords to administer the West Bank and Gaza. Since 2005 it has been led by Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah. In 2007, a brief civil war between Fatah and Hamas left Hamas in power in Gaza, creating a deep division between the two parties and the Palestinian people.

While the PA argues it should be the sole governing authority in Gaza, Fatah and Abbas are deeply unpopular among Palestinians. In a recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, just 6% of Palestinians said they would vote for Abbas in an election.

The waning legitimacy of the current PA leadership puts into question its ability to rule. Corruption, lack of democracy and Abbas’s age has led for calls for someone new to lead the Palestinians into the next chapter of their history. One name has resounding popularity: Marwan Barghouti.

‘Palestinian Mandela’

Barghouti has long been seen as the key to uniting the Palestinian factions and achieving Palestinian statehood. He was described in a 2009 article in Foreign Policy magazine as “Palestine’s best hope”. More recently, in July 2024, The Economist described him as “the world’s most important prisoner”.

Despite being imprisoned in Israel since 2002, Barghouti has consistently topped polls of potential future PA leaders. His supporters have named him the “Palestinian Nelson Mandela” in the hope that he can emulate the South Africa leader by transitioning from political prisoner to the man who can unify a divided people.

Born in the West Bank in 1959, Barghouti rose to prominence as a youth leader in the years leading up to the first intifada and was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council in 1996. But in 2002 he was arrested by the Israeli security services at the height of the second intifada and convicted in 2004 for involvement in the murder of five people. Barghouti refused to recognise the authority of the Israeli court and offered no defence at trial. He was subsequently handed five life sentences.

Barghouti’s appeal lies in his ability to garner broad support among different stakeholders – Palestinian, Israeli and international.

He gained respect from militant Palestinian factions for his armed resistance and his incarceration. Hamas reportedly placed him at the top of previous potential prisoner swap deals. Alongside this, his declared preference for unarmed resistance and his vision for democratic Palestinian governance garner him support from the Palestinians who have grown tired of PA corruption.

He is supported by Israeli peace activists as the Palestinian solution to ending the cycle of violence. Veteran activist, Gershon Baskin, explained in the Times of Israel, in April 2025, that Barghouti is “still committed to Palestinian Israeli peace based on the two-state solution”.

Voices in Israel’s security establishment also see the value of Barghouti as the Palestinian leader. Ami Ayalon, the former chief of Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence organisation, argued in January 2024 that it was time to release Barghouti and initiate negotiations with him as the popular leader of the Palestinians.

But it has been reported that PA leaders, mindful of the political threat Barghouti poses to them, have consistently opposed his release as part of potential Israel-Hamas prisoner swaps.

Unsurprisingly, for different reasons, Netanyahu is vehemently opposed to his release, stating in 2017 in response to an opinion piece by Barghouti published by the New York Times that “calling imprisoned Fatah leader, Marwan Barghouti, a Palestinian leader and parliamentarian is like calling Syrian president, Bashar Assad, a paediatrician”.

Barghouti could be an important missing piece in the unfolding puzzle towards Palestinian statehood. And it should be up to the Palestinian people who leads them. But it seems the keys to his cell are held by people who don’t want to see the Palestinian Mandela set free.

Leonie Fleischmann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As Hamas considers a peace deal, the man most Palestinians want to lead them sits in an Israeli jail – https://theconversation.com/as-hamas-considers-a-peace-deal-the-man-most-palestinians-want-to-lead-them-sits-in-an-israeli-jail-266492

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lucy Taylor, Lecturer in Education, University of Leeds

In a speech delivered at the Labour party conference, Chancellor Rachel Reeves committed to “providing a library in every single primary school in England by the end of this parliament”.

This new scheme should help to achieve the goal set by the Libraries for Primaries campaign, established in 2021, to ensure that every primary school in the UK has a library or dedicated library space.

This is a welcome development. Our research focuses on the value well-stocked libraries can provide to schools and pupils.

School libraries are a vital resource for enriching learning across the curriculum. They provide graduated texts to support learners from the very start of their reading journeys and give children access to a wealth of information, ideas, perspectives and stories.

This investment comes at a time when reading for pleasure is rapidly decreasing. According to a 2025 survey by the National Literacy Trust, only a third of children aged eight to 18 enjoy reading in their free time. Government data shows that 25% of pupils leave primary school unable to read at the level expected.

Some school libraries are very well stocked and are inviting spaces for children to read and share books. However, these spaces need constant investment to keep them up to date and relevant with high-quality texts. Doing so can be difficult for many schools whose budgets are tight.

School library services

To keep pace with developments in children’s book publishing is a substantial undertaking. Schools need to ensure that within their staff team there is sufficient knowledge and expertise to manage and maintain a vibrant library collection. It is also important that school libraries are aligned with the curriculum. Libraries should be an inclusive resource for communities of children with diverse cultural and linguistic backgrounds and learning needs.

Many people don’t know that school libraries can draw on the resources and expertise of local School Library Services to keep their stock up to date and changing on a regular basis. They are typically funded and run by local authorities and employ trained librarians who can help schools run their own libraries. However, our research has shown that they are not available in all areas of England, and they are not financially secure in the long term.

School libraries can be refreshed every term by new stock borrowed from the School Library Services, curated by expert librarians. For example, the Leeds School Library Service serves 180 primary schools. It delivered 9,514 boxes of resources throughout the academic year 2022–23.

School Library Services have a wider range of books and resources than a single school could hold. As items borrowed from School Library Services are returned after a set period and then shared with other schools, they offer a model of library resourcing that is more sustainable that a single investment in a school library stock update. One teacher we spoke to said: “You don’t want 30 books to store, you want to use them and send them back and get 30 different ones. I think that’s a huge benefit.”

Some School Library Services help schools to set up their libraries, reorganise them and select great quality texts so that their libraries are current, appealing and easy to manage. School Library Services typically employ specialist children’s librarians with an understanding of the local area, and in some instances can even provide artefacts such as objects and costumes to further stimulate learning. Investment is needed in these services to ensure that they can replenish stock and train new school library specialists.

The wide choice of reading material a library provides gives children more opportunity to find a book they connect with than, for instance, a classroom reading corner. Being able to find a book that they want to read is important to becoming an engaged reader.

Some children will want to read about their favourite video game, others may be more interested in sport, and some will relish the opportunity to delve into a fantasy world of imagination. Talking about the children in their class, a teacher we interviewed said that a good choice of books “spurred some of them on to actually start reading”. Another teacher reported that school libraries “helped promote reading in school because kids have had more access to books”.

The renewed focus on school libraries is long overdue and we look forward to seeing the benefits that schools will reap from this new funding. But in addition to investment directly in primary school libraries in the short term, financial commitment to strengthening School Library Services will also pay dividends for future generations of child readers.

Lucy Taylor has received funding from UK Literacy Association, and the Association of Senior Education Librarians (ASCEL) via Arts Council England (ACE) for projects related to this topic.

Paula Clarke has previously received funding from the UK Literacy Association, and the Association of Senior Education Librarians (ASCEL) via Arts Council England (ACE), for projects related to this topic.

– ref. The overlooked service that could make plans for a library in every primary school in England a reality – https://theconversation.com/the-overlooked-service-that-could-make-plans-for-a-library-in-every-primary-school-in-england-a-reality-266394

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rachel Woods, Senior Lecturer in Physiology, University of Lincoln

When María Branyas Morera died in 2024 at the age of 117, she left more than memories. She left science a gift: samples of her microbiome.

Researchers discovered her gut was as diverse as someone decades younger: rich in beneficial bacteria linked to resilience and longevity. Her daily yoghurt habit and Mediterranean diet may have helped. While we can’t all inherit “lucky genes”, nurturing our microbiome may be one way to support lifelong health.

In a recent paper in Cell Reports Medicine, researchers presented what may be the most detailed scientific investigation of a supercentenarian (a person aged 110 or older). Before her death, Branyas agreed to participate in research aimed at uncovering how she lived such a long and healthy life.

---

Read more:
Centenarian blood tests give hints of the secrets to longevity

---

When scientists compared her samples with those of people who had not reached such exceptional ages, the genetic results were unsurprising: Branyas carried protective variants that guard against common diseases. But they also looked at something over which we have more control – the gut microbiome.

This microbiome is the vast community of bacteria, fungi and other microorganisms that live in the intestines. They help digest food, produce vitamins, influence our immune system and even communicate with the brain. While our genes play only a small role in shaping our microbiome, diet and lifestyle are far more important.

Normally, as people age, gut microbiomes lose diversity – the variety of microbial species – and beneficial microbes such as Bifidobacterium decline. This reduction in diversity has been linked to frailty.

Branyas’s gut told a different story. Her microbiome was as diverse as that of a much younger adult and was especially rich in the bacterial family Bifidobacteriaceae, including the genus Bifidobacterium. In most older people these bacteria decline, but Branyas’s levels matched previous reports of elevated Bifidobacterium in other centenarians and supercentenarians. The researchers concluded that this unusually youthful microbiome may have supported her gut and immune health, contributing to her extraordinary longevity.

Bifidobacteria are among the first microbes to colonise an infant’s gut and are generally considered beneficial throughout life. Studies link them to supporting immune function, protecting against gastrointestinal disorders and helping regulate cholesterol.

Her diet offered a clue to why she maintained such high levels of Bifidobacterium. Branyas reported eating three yoghurts every day, each containing live bacteria that are known to support the growth of Bifidobacterium. She also followed a largely Mediterranean diet, a pattern of eating consistently linked to gut microbiome diversity and good health.

Other foods that encourage Bifidobacterium include kefir, kombucha and fermented vegetables such as kimchi and sauerkraut. These contain probiotics – live bacteria that can settle in the gut and confer health benefits. But probiotics need fuel. Prebiotics – dietary fibres we can’t digest but that our microbes thrive on – are found in foods like onions, garlic, leeks, asparagus, bananas, oats and legumes. Together, probiotics and prebiotics help maintain a balanced microbiome.

Of course, this was a study of a single individual, and the scientists are not claiming that her microbiome alone explains her long life. Her extraordinary longevity was almost certainly the result of many interwoven factors: protective genes, efficient metabolism, low inflammation – and, quite possibly, the support of a diverse gut microbiome.

Microbiome research is advancing rapidly, but no one yet knows what the “perfect” microbiome looks like. Greater diversity is generally associated with better health, but there is no single recipe for a long life. Even so, Branyas’s case reinforces a growing consensus: nurturing a diverse, beneficial microbiome is linked to better health and resilience.

While we cannot choose our genes, we can support our gut microbes. Simple steps include eating fermented foods, such as live yoghurts, kefir, kimchi and sauerkraut, as well as fruit, vegetables, legumes and whole grains, which supply the prebiotics that healthy microbes need.

Following a Mediterranean-style diet – built around vegetables, fruits and whole grains, with olive oil as the main fat, fish and legumes eaten regularly, and red meat, processed foods and added sugars kept to a minimum – has been repeatedly linked to both microbiome diversity and reduced disease risk.

These habits will not guarantee a lifespan beyond 110, but they are associated with lower risks of cancer, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

María Branyas Morera’s life is a reminder that longevity depends on a delicate balance of genetics, lifestyle and biology. We cannot control every factor, but tending to our gut microbiome is one meaningful step toward lasting health.

Rachel Woods does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What the gut microbiome of the world’s oldest person can tell us about ageing – https://theconversation.com/what-the-gut-microbiome-of-the-worlds-oldest-person-can-tell-us-about-ageing-266161

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Marie-Louise Crawley, Assistant Professor in Dance and Cultural Engagement, Coventry University

The image is stark and shocking. A decapitated head, her eyes open, her mouth agape in a silent scream, her hair a nest of still-hissing snakes. Blood pours out from her severed neck. She is not quite alive, but she is not yet dead either.

Michelangelo Merisi da Caravaggio’s Head of Medusa (1597) remains one of the most memorable images of Italian baroque art. Now in Florence’s Uffizi gallery, it tells the story of the “monster” Medusa, the snake-headed Gorgon whose stare turns whoever dares look at her to stone.

In classical mythology, it is the dashing young hero Perseus who manages to slay the monster, avoiding her deadly gaze by using his shield as a mirror and beheading her in one fell swoop. Caravaggio’s Head of Medusa portrays the moment just after the beheading, Medusa’s eyes wide in anguish, her brows furrowed, still seemingly in disbelief at her death.

What is clever about the painting is that Medusa’s gaze is cast slightly downwards, so that she does not look directly at the viewer and turn us to stone. Rather, we are the ones given the power to look at her.

Intriguingly, Caravaggio’s work is also reputed to be a self-portrait. In this way, Caravaggio – like the viewer – manages to escape the Gorgon’s fatal gaze, and the painting itself becomes a meditation not only on violence but also on the artist’s power of immortality – his features frozen in time forever.

---

This article is part of Rethinking the Classics. The stories in this series offer insightful new ways to think about and interpret classic books and artworks. This is the canon – with a twist.

---

In a feat of technical prowess, Caravaggio painted Medusa onto an actual shield, the very object of her own demise. Its convex surface means that, as you walk around it, you see different angles. Depending on your viewpoint, some elements are hidden while others are revealed.

This choice echoes the layers of the Medusa story. This fictional femicide tells more than the simple story of man kills monster and saves the day.

As the Roman poet Ovid tells it in book four of his epic poem Metamorphoses (where it is, in fact, Perseus who gets to tell her story, the man speaking for the woman as he brandishes her impotent head around for all to see), Medusa was transformed into a monster as a punishment. Her crime? That she was raped by the sea god Poseidon. The woman punished for her own rape, deemed monstrous, while the male perpetrator gets off scot-free. It’s the ancient equivalent of “she was asking for it”.

Unmasking Medusa

It was Medusa’s own story – the face of the woman behind the monster’s mask – that I aimed to re-collect and re-frame in my dance piece Likely Terpsichore? (Fragments), which I made for the Ashmolean Museum in Oxford in 2018.

This performance work forms part of my wider research investigating the radical power and potential of dance in the museum as an innovative way of reading, viewing and understanding ancient history and culture differently. It’s something I term “radical archaeology”.

Medusa has been appropriated by both psychoanalysis and feminism (see, for example, French second-wave feminist Helene Cixous’ powerful 1975 essay The Laugh of the Medusa). She is, as classics scholar Helen Lovatt puts it, “a pin-up for female objectification”. Medusa is monstrous and petrifying, but also raped and objectified.

Her story continues to resonate in our post-MeToo times. In her book Women and Power (2017), classicist Mary Beard points to Medusa’s decapitated head as a defining image of the radical separation – real, cultural and imaginary – between women and power in western history.

Beard brings the image up to date with an exploration of how it is still used today to separate women from political power. She cites, as one example, the nastier merchandise on offer to supporters of Donald Trump during the US election campaign of 2016. Mugs and T-shirts bore the image of Trump as Perseus brandishing the dripping head of Hillary Clinton as Medusa.

Beard also points to the occasion when Dilma Rousseff, a former president of Brazil, opened a major Caravaggio show in São Paolo. She was asked to stand in front of the Medusa at a photo opportunity the baying press could simply not resist.

Interestingly, Medusa’s head was itself popularly represented in antiquity on an object known as a gorgoneion – an amulet designed to avert evil. It was a powerful image, one of protection, able to ward off danger.

I believe it’s time to reclaim this symbolism – to see Medusa as a symbol of female empowerment, of legitimate rage and resistance. So take another look at Medusa – dare to look her in the eyes and perhaps even, like Caravaggio, let her face take on your own features.

Beyond the canon

As part of the Rethinking the Classics series, we’re asking our experts to recommend a book or artwork that tackles similar themes to the canonical work in question, but isn’t (yet) considered a classic itself. Here is Marie-Louise Crawley’s suggestion:

Readers wanting to know more about Medusa might enjoy Natalie Haynes’ novel Stone Blind (2022).

A classicist and comedian, Haynes can often be found “standing up” for the classics as part of her lively BBC Radio 4 series of the same name, here offers an energetic feminist retelling of the Medusa and Perseus story.

Pointing to the male violence at the centre of the story, Haynes’ novel bitingly flips the question of who is the hero and who is the real monster.

---

Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

---

This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

Marie-Louise Crawley receives funding from the British Council (‘Kinaesthetic Heritage’ Springboard Project 2025).

– ref. Caravaggio’s Medusa: why we need to look the Gorgon in the eye – https://theconversation.com/caravaggios-medusa-why-we-need-to-look-the-gorgon-in-the-eye-255800

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maria Ahmad, PhD Candidate, Cognitive Neuroscience, Psychology and Language Sciences, UCL

One of the biggest navigation challenges is knowing where you are in the open ocean without tools or devices. This remarkable skill is exemplified by the ancient techniques once used by expert navigators of the Marshall Islands, a chain of
low-lying coral islands and atolls situated between Hawaii and the Philippines.

Together with a cognitive neuroscientist, philosopher, Marshallese anthropologist and two Indigenous sailors, I was part of a sailing expedition that aimed to explore how Marshallese sailors use their environment to find their way at sea. Aboard Stravaig, a 42ft (12m) trimaran (a boat with three hulls), the winds and waves carried us 60 miles from Majuro atoll to Aur atoll.

In the six years I lived in the Marshall Islands, I had never travelled past Eneko, a small islet within the lagoon of Majuro. I was always drawn to the reef where the lagoon meets the ocean, watching the white surf appear as the waves broke against the barrier that protected the atoll.

It was the knowledge of those waves that the ri meto (the person of the sea, a title given to a navigator by the chief), would dedicate their lives to mastering. By sensing subtle changes in ocean swells, the ri meto could detect the direction and distance to islands that lay thousands of miles beyond the horizon.

With this ancient knowledge, the ri meto mastered one of the most extraordinary skills known to humans: navigating the Pacific. But the devastating history of the Marshall Islands has extinguished the practice and currently, there is no officially appointed ri meto.

Alson Kelen is the apprentice of the last-known ri meto. His parents were displaced from the northern Bikini atoll during the US lead nuclear programme that detonated 67 atomic and thermonuclear bombs in the Marshall Islands during the 1940s and 50s.

Beyond the catastrophic destruction and suffering, it disrupted the inter-generational transfer of traditional knowledge, including navigation. As part of revival efforts by professor of anthropology Joseph Genz, Kelen captained the jitdaam kapeel, a traditional Marshallese canoe, from Majuro to Aur in 2015, relying solely on the traditional navigational skills he had learned as an apprentice.

Inspired by this, I was curious about the role that neuroscience played in understanding wayfinding at sea. Research in spatial navigation has revealed how the brain’s neural and cognitive processes help us find our way. Most of this research focuses on land-based navigation, either in lab settings or controlled environments using video games or virtual reality headsets. But the cognitive demands at sea are considerably greater with constantly changing factors, such as swells, winds, clouds and stars.

Neuroscience of navigation

As the director of Waan Aelon in Majel, a local canoe building and sailing school, Kelen chose two highly skilled traditional sailors to join us on our research expedition.

As we approached the channel, the steady waves of the lagoon gave way to the heavier ocean swells hitting the hull. The crew tightened the ropes and the sails were hoisted. All of a sudden, I felt the dominant eastern swell lift the boat. We had left the calm of the lagoon and were bound for Aur Atoll.

For the next two days, Stravaig was our lab on the ocean. For more than 40 hours we were collecting cognitive and physiological data from nine crew members, along with constant environmental data from our ever-changing surroundings.

We asked everyone to keep track of their estimated location throughout the voyage. Only two crew members (the captain and first mate) had access to GPS at intervals; others relied solely on the environment and memory. At hourly intervals, each crew member would mark their estimated position on a map, along with their predictions of how much time and distance remained till the first signs of land and eventually landfall itself. They also noted any environmental stimuli, such as the waves, winds or the position of the sun they were using.

The crew also rated four key emotions throughout the journey: happiness, tiredness, worry and seasickness. Each crew member wore an Empatica smartwatch, which recorded changes in their heart rate.

An accelerometer was mounted onto the top deck to record the movement of the boat as the wave patterns changed. A separate mounted 360° GoPro camera captured changes in the sails, clouds, sun, moon and movement of crew on deck.

Just before the last piece of land dipped under the horizon, each crew member pointed to five atolls: Jabwot, Ebeye, Erikub, Aur Tabal, Arno and Majuro. A covered compass was used to record the bearings. This was repeated across the journey to test orientation skills without reference to land.

By the end of this voyage, we had a rich collection of data that mixes subjective experiences with objective measurements of the environment. Every estimation plotted on a map, every emotion, every changing heart rate was recorded in conjunction with changes in wave patterns, the wind, the sky and the GPS beneath it all. This new data forms the foundation for a model that could begin to explain the cognitive process of wayfinding at sea, whilst also offering a glimpse into this ancient human ability, one that the ri meto mastered long ago.

---

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

---

This research project is lead by Prof. Hugo Spiers Professor of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London. The research team includes: Alson Kelen Director of Waan Aelon in Majel, Prof. Joseph Genz Anthropologist at the University of Hawai’i at Hilo, Prof. John Huth Donner Professor of Science Harvard University Physics Department, Prof. Gad Marshall Professor of Neurology, Harvard Medical School, Prof. Shahar Arzy Professor of Neurology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Dr. Pablo Fernandez Velasco, British Academy postdoctoral fellow, University of Stirling, Jerolynn Neikeke Myazoe Graduate Student, University of Hawai’i at Hilo, Clansey Takia Indigenous Sailing and Canoe building instructor WAM, Binton Daniel Indigenous Sailing and Canoe building instructor WAM, Chewy C. Lin Documentary film-maker and Dishad Hussain Director at Imotion Films.

This project has been supported by the Royal Institute of Navigation, University College London and the Centre for the Sciences of Place and Memory at the University of Stirling (funded by the Leverhulme Trust), Royal Veterinary College, Glitchers, Neuroscience & Design, Empatica, Imotion and Brunton.

– ref. My voyage to explore how Marshallese sailors find their way at sea without technology – https://theconversation.com/my-voyage-to-explore-how-marshallese-sailors-find-their-way-at-sea-without-technology-261032

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jiao Wang, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Sussex Business School, University of Sussex

Donald Trump’s recent state visit to the UK ended without the removal of steel tariffs, which the host nation had been hoping for. For months, the US president’s array of “liberation day” tariffs have sparked controversy and caused chaos for America’s trading partners.

Ultimately, the US expects to collect more than US$50 billion (£37 billion) a month in revenues from these tariffs. This figure, from US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, might sound like a fiscal triumph – a rare instance of a government growing revenue without raising taxes. But behind the headline lies a far more complex, and troubling, economic reality.

Tariffs are not free money. They are taxes on trade, and their costs ripple through the economy in ways that disproportionately burden the people they claim to protect.

The US has increasingly treated tariffs as a first rather than last resort. Under Trump, they are deployed to punish adversaries (trading partners that run large trade surpluses, for example), reshore manufacturing and generate revenue. The message from the president is clear: economic interdependence will be weaponised. And this shift is being enabled by a growing bipartisan consensus that the old model of unfettered free trade has left the US economy exposed.

Many Democrats and Republicans now agree that decades of offshoring and integrating into global supply chains have made the US vulnerable. This was seen not only during crises such as the COVID pandemic, when shortages of medical supplies and semiconductors disrupted everything from healthcare to car production, but also in the face of geopolitical threats from rivals like China.

In response, there is rising support for industrial policies that promote economic nationalism, often under the banner of national security. This means tariffs are no longer seen as an exceptional measure, but a permanent fixture of American economic statecraft.

Even though this political logic is gaining traction, the economic consequences remain regressive. The burden of tariffs is not borne by foreign exporters or large corporations – it is passed directly to consumers in the form of higher prices.

---

Read more:
Tariffs are back in the spotlight, but skepticism of free trade has deep roots in American history

---

Research on tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term (in 2018-19) and more recently confirms this. It found that the full cost of US import tariffs was borne by domestic consumers and importing firms, with no change in the prices received by foreign exporters.

Similarly, another study demonstrated that the costs of US tariffs on Chinese goods were almost entirely passed through to American consumers and businesses.

The illusion of a win for the US through tariffs is based on the assumption that there will be no retaliation from other countries. But that is not the case.

Tariffs may indeed decrease the US trade deficit, and bring a modest boost to consumer welfare if tariff revenues reduce the income tax burden for Americans, as Trump has suggested. But it has been shown that reciprocal tariffs which increase the prices of many household goods would more than offset these welfare gains, making US households worse off in the end.

Raising tariffs unilaterally as Trump has done, combined with a global trade war, has been found to lead to a sharp contraction in US GDP, rising inflation, and a widening trade deficit. The same analysis confirmed that any US welfare gains from tariffs vanish when the rest of the world retaliates.

The cost for Americans

So why does Trump continue to champion tariffs? His persistence points to a deeper political economy puzzle, and suggests boosting the welfare of average Americans might not be part of his policy calculus.

Tariffs may be economically inefficient and socially regressive, but they are politically potent. They generate headlines, feed narratives of national strength, and allow leaders to cast themselves as defenders of American workers. All the while, the true costs are diffuse, delayed, and buried in monthly grocery and retail bills.

In this light, tariffs are less about economics and more about optics. It is a performance of power that sidesteps the realities of global supply chains and consumer vulnerability.

So, who wins and who loses? The evidence paints a nuanced picture. Losers are easy to identify: American consumers, especially low- and middle-income households who spend a larger share of their income on manufactured goods. While boasting about collecting billions in tariff revenues, Trump is yet to outline any specific plan to redistribute those revenues to low- and middle-income households.

Then there are the small businesses reliant on imported products, and the farmers and exporters caught in retaliatory crosshairs. US soybean exports to China, for example, plummeted in 2018 and again in 2025, with zero orders coming from China so far this year.

The winners are narrower and more concentrated. Large-scale domestic producers, such as those in sectors shielded by tariffs (for example, steel, aluminium and car parts) gain through reduced foreign competition and higher prices. Big agricultural businesses and politically connected firms also benefit, thanks to substantial bailout packages during tariff wars – as, of course, does the US Treasury, which pockets the tariff revenue.

But the global economy as a whole faces increased uncertainty, disrupted supply chains, and reduced trade volumes as a result of these tariffs. This dampens overall growth prospects.

Ever since the pandemic, foreign producers have been adapting, shifting supply chains from China to Vietnam, Mexico and India amid growing US-China tensions. This has left US tariffs increasingly ineffective at reshoring industry from across the globe, but highly effective at inflating prices.

The projected US$50 billion in monthly tariff revenue is not a victory lap. It signals a world where the costs of political symbolism are offloaded on to citizens. Tariffs don’t create wealth, they redistribute it – often from the vulnerable to the powerful through higher prices.

As the US continues its march into a new age of protectionism, one question should guide the debate. When the next tariff is announced to great fanfare, who will really be paying the bill?

Jiao Wang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tariffs may bring a US$50 billion monthly boost to the US government. But ordinary Americans won’t feel the benefit – https://theconversation.com/tariffs-may-bring-a-us-50-billion-monthly-boost-to-the-us-government-but-ordinary-americans-wont-feel-the-benefit-265542

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Will Shüler, Vice-Dean of Education and Senior Lecturer, School of Performing and Digital Arts, Royal Holloway University of London

Warning: this article contains spoilers.

Indhu Rubasingham has begun her tenure as the director of the National Theatre with her production of Bacchae, playwright Nima Taleghani’s new version of Euripides’ ancient Greek tragedy. A play about the Greek god of theatre, it’s a bold choice that makes a clear statement about Rubasingham’s thoughts on the power of the theatre and what audiences might expect under her leadership at the National.

Dionysus and his celebrants, the Bacchae, are travelling west from Asia to Thebes, where the god’s cousin Pentheus rules as king. When Pentheus refuses to acknowledge Dionysus’ divinity, the god exacts revenge by driving the women of Thebes – including Pentheus’ mother, Agave – into divine madness.

The women join the Bacchae on the mountains outside of Thebes to celebrate his rites by drinking wine, hunting and participating in orgies. In disguise as a human, Dionysus leads Pentheus – dressed as a woman to blend in with the Bacchae – to retrieve his mother. In the grip of this divine madness Agave mistakes her son for a lion, and tears off Pentheus’ head.

She triumphantly returns to Thebes to show off her prowess, only to discover in a moment of devastating clarity what she has done. Meanwhile, a rift within the Bacchae themselves has emerged from internal disagreements about the needs of their group and how far Dionysus is taking things.

Tragedy and contemporary concerns

The production employs a range of different performance styles. The opening scene of Bacchae is a powerful, rhythmically chanted choral ode performed as rap. The introduction of Dionysus is done as a showy musical theatre number, and for the first half of the play Pentheus is performed in the style and costume of a panto villain. Perhaps these different styles are intended to show the versatility of drama, as a nod to doing a play about the god of theatre. In practice, they jar with each other, falling a bit flat.

Starting an artistic directorship with a Greek tragedy could be criticised for contributing to the idea that theatre began in 6th-century BC Athens. While the performance traditions of ancient Greece have been very influential in the course of theatre history, there are several theatrical traditions which predate this, such as those in China and Africa.

That said, Taleghani’s adaptation takes the story in a direction that is clearly tapping into contemporary concerns such as decolonising culture, feminism, race and LGBTQ issues. At times, however, these interventions are overly didactic or treated superficially.

For example, towards the end of the play, some of the Bacchae decide that they would like to make a home in Thebes, rather than continue to travel and spread the word of Dionysus. Dionysus advocates for this to Pentheus and does not settle for the king’s offer of a sanctuary on the outskirts of Thebes – he wants the Bacchae to be integrated within the city.

But because this scene happens just five minutes before Pentheus’ beheading, this dialogue feels like an underdeveloped thread, shoe-horned into the plot to make an overt political statement about migration and asylum.

Had this been a nuanced and developed thread throughout, like the Young Vic production of Aeschylus’s Suppliants (2017) in which thoughtful connections between the suppliant women and contemporary asylum seekers are developed from the beginning, it might not have come across as virtue-signalling.

Greek tragedy was intended to educate its audience. But rather than specifically making a political point, it presented challenging scenes intended to provoke reflection on social and cultural issues of the time.

This happens in the National Theatre’s Bacchae when it is most subtle in its politics. Kera, leader of the zealous Bacchae breakaway faction, claims Thebes, Dionysus’ motherland, as a religious promised land. And she is willing to resort to extreme violence in order to take it.

Perhaps because of the sensitivity around the war in Gaza, the topic of religion and violence is folded into Bacchae in a subtle, more nuanced way. This choice entrusts the audience to draw their own connections between the world of the play and world we live in, rather than having a particular stance clearly outlined for us.

One overt critique that lands well comes at the end of the play, when the leader of the Bacchae, Vida (brilliantly performed by Clare Perkins), comments: “Perhaps there was always a flaw in our plan; the liberation of women … being led by a man”. This allows the audience to reflect on Dionysus as leader of the Bacchae’s drive for freedom since the start of the play. Indeed, it calls into question the flaw in the narrative dating back to Euripides’ original in BC405 and many other versions staged since.

In many ways Bacchae is meta-theatrical, meaning it draws attention to the fact that it is a piece of theatre. Several times Vida tells the audience what theatre can and should do. This rings clearest at the end of the play, when her words read as Rubasingham’s stance as new director: “After the god of drama steps in, ur Royal National Theatre shit’ll never be the same”.

But the play shines most when instead of telling us what theatre can do, it just actually does it.

Bacchae is at the National Theatre until November 1

---

Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

---

Will Shüler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Bacchae is bold first choice for National Theatre’s new director – https://theconversation.com/bacchae-is-bold-first-choice-for-national-theatres-new-director-266410

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helena Gillespie, Associate Pro Vice Chancellor for Student Inclusion and Professor of Learning and Teaching in Higher Education, University of East Anglia

Keir Starmer’s recent speech at the Labour conference placed the UK at a “fork in the road”, telling the audience that there is a choice between “renewal or decline”.

Schools, colleges and higher education providers might be pleased to hear that the prime minister sees that education has an important role to play in this renewal. However, the details of the plans contain some challenges – as well as opportunities – for universities, colleges and young people.

Starmer’s vision for a changed education sector in England attempts to use the same measures to tackle two separate problems. On the one hand, proposed reforms attempt to remedy gaps in skills in the workforce. On the other, they address the need to promote social mobility. This is a precarious path to walk.

A key announcement that preceded Starmer’s speech was the limited return of student maintenance grants. At present, students from disadvantaged backgrounds are able to access a maintenance loan to support their study.

This must be paid back once the recipient starts to earn above the threshold of £25,000 for students starting their degree since 2023. The threshold is higher for those who began their studies earlier. The proposed grants will not need to be repaid, lowering student debt for those who are eligible.

However, these grants will only be available to students from lower-income backgrounds studying “priority” courses. These include computing, engineering, the mathematical sciences and health and social care.

This announcement has received a cautious welcome from some quarters. A spokesperson for the Access Project, an organisation focused on improving access to higher education, said: “While we welcome the decision to reintroduce maintenance grants for priority subjects, we hope future funding extends grant eligibility to all higher education courses.”

But some responses have been distinctly negative. These grants seem to be based on taking funding directly from universities in the form of a levy on international student fees. This has resulted in much concern in the already cash-strapped higher education sector.

This is now accompanied by the scrapping of Labour’s long-standing target of half of all young people entering university – now a reality. This will perhaps not be unexpected for those in higher education, who have seen the sector and its students struggle with decreasing resources in the last decade.

Instead, Starmer announced that the aim is now for two-thirds of young people to enter either higher education or an apprenticeship by the age of 25. Starmer spoke directly about attempting to change perceptions about further education, which he described as “the Cinderella service, ignored because politicians’ kids don’t do it”.

This is a valuable and welcome initiative. A more integrated approach to funding and regulation for further and higher education also provides opportunities for the education sector to undergo meaningful renewal.

But again, there is a focus on skills: 14 new technical excellence colleges will concentrate on “high-growth sectors such as advanced manufacturing, clean energy, and digital”.

A social shift that would raise the status of further education to equal that of university will take significant time to achieve – especially when so many careers now require a degree. It is likely to be well into the next parliament and beyond before the target of two-thirds of young people in apprenticeships or higher education can be realised.

What’s more, widespread concerns about the value of university and especially of the worth of “rip-off” degrees can be misplaced. Higher education remains an incredibly powerful tool for social mobility for young people from poor backgrounds.

I believe that many parts of the higher education sector are ready to adapt to become part of the “renewal” the government seeks. Extra funding and opportunities for further education are also to be welcomed.

However, the funding problems colleges and universities face remain serious, despite the government’s investment. And a focus on specific skills means that education in the arts, for instance, remains far more accessible for wealthier young people.

While I appreciate the ambition of trying to address the thorny problem of a skills gap alongside social mobility, there is a risk that in trying to do both, the government achieves neither.

Helena Gillespie receives funding from TASO.

– ref. Labour to revive maintenance grants and further education – but can it improve skills and social mobility at the same time? – https://theconversation.com/labour-to-revive-maintenance-grants-and-further-education-but-can-it-improve-skills-and-social-mobility-at-the-same-time-266409

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tom Birkett, Professor of Old English and Old Norse, University College Cork

At a press conference announcing that the suspect in the shooting of Charlie Kirk had been detained, FBI director Kash Patel ended his speech with a personal message to his “brother”, saying: “We have the watch, and I’ll see you in Valhalla.”

Many people commenting on the press conference reacted to this confusing reference to Valhalla with a mixture of amusement and disdain, with some pointing out the contradiction of eulogising a Christian nationalist with reference to the pagan afterlife.

For scholars of the Vikings, Patel’s reference to Valhalla looked like something far more sinister. To understand why, we need to know both what Valhalla meant to the Vikings, and what it means in political discourse today.

---

Read more:
US Capitol riot: the myths behind the tattoos worn by ‘QAnon shaman’ Jake Angeli

---

The Norse peoples had a developed concept of the afterlife. The desirable destination for Norse warriors was Valhalla, the hall of the slain, where Odin watched over his band of chosen warriors as they prepared for Ragnarök, the world-destroying battle against the giants. Only those who died a heroic death in combat were brought to Valhalla by the Valkyries.

Those who died by sickness, old age or accident – or who had committed murder and other dishonourable crimes – seem to have been excluded from this martial afterlife. Some believed that you could cheat the Norse gods by arranging to be buried with deliberately worn and damaged weapons as if you had seen heavy combat. There’s a lot we don’t know.

What we do know is that in the 1930s the concept of Valhalla, along with the image of the heroic Viking and many of the symbols of Norse mythology, had a profound appeal to Nazi thought leaders. They looked to Norse mythology as a survival of a wider “Germanic” culture that had been erased by Judeo-Christian dominance.

The Nordic “race” was held up as the Aryan ideal. Norse cultural remnants were used to add legitimacy to the idea of a glorious German past. Heinrich Himmler in particular repurposed Norse symbols for use by the SS.

Today, many white supremacist and neo-Nazi groups continue to brand themselves using a widening range of symbols taken from Norse mythology. One aspect of Norse culture that has gained increasing prominence in the past few decades is the specific co-opting of Valhalla by those who are prepared to kill, and die, in the cause of “protecting” an endangered white supremacy.

Valhalla in terrorist manifestos

The most chilling example of the co-option of the phrase “see you in Valhalla” is found in the manifestos published by far-right terrorists in the wake of their atrocities.

In 2019, Brenton Tarrant carried out mass shootings at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, in which 51 people were killed. He published a rambling manifesto in which he attempted to justify his actions, and touted the “great replacement” conspiracy theory which holds that Jewish elites are deliberately engineering the replacement of white populations through immigration.

This has since become a far-right talking point and was pushed by Charlie Kirk on his show. Tarrant signed off his diatribe against multiculturalism and “white genocide” by saying “Goodbye, god bless you all and I will see you in Valhalla.”

Tarrant in turn influenced other far-right terrorists. One such terrorist, Peyton Gendron, was convicted of the Buffalo mass shooting in 2022 in which ten black Americans were murdered. Gendron plagiarised much of his 180-page manifesto, and similarly ends his screed with the statement: “I hope to see you in Valhalla.”

By invoking Valhalla, these terrorists are attempting to cast themselves as warriors in the Viking tradition. There is, of course, nothing remotely heroic about gunning down unarmed civilians.

But the point is that this reference doesn’t require any understanding of the Norse tradition. In this context it comes directly from the Nazi’s fetishisation of violent death to secure the racial purity of Germany.

From terrorists to the FBI

Rather than borrowing from extremist discourse, Patel may have been influenced by the use of “til Valhalla” by the US marines to honour fallen comrades – including those who died by suicide. This is a use which has been traced back to the influence of Norwegian Nato forces in Afghanistan, who may have used “til Valhalla” as a kind of battle cry. Of course, the optics of using a military honorific to commemorate the assassination of a civilian is problematic in itself.

Patel’s “see you in Valhalla” was much closer in its wording to the sign off used by far-right terrorists – but even this phrasing was unlikely to have been lifted directly from extremists. It is more likely an example of a phenomenon often observed in the study of the far-right online ecosystem, which is the seepage of extreme right discourse into more mainstream spaces.

Neo-Nazi groups use memes, shitposting and humour as a deliberate strategy to seed increasingly extreme ideas into groups amenable to their message.

It isn’t hard to find references to Valhalla commercialised, repackaged as inspirational Viking quotes for Maga consumption, referencing cancel culture, or even using Norse video games as a gateway to white supremacy. In this way, the more mainstream right often ends up sharing and amplifying extremist messaging.

Patel’s reference to Valhalla was at the very least a huge misstep by a government official trying to appeal to the Maga base and elevate Kirk’s tragic killing into a heroic warrior’s death.

While he may not have made his reference to Valhalla in knowledge of its association with far-right terrorism, it nevertheless served as a signal to white supremacists. As reported elsewhere, there was a lot of engagement from the extreme right on social media, but their posts tended to ridicule Patel.

His words prompted memes on social media playing on the apparent absurdity of someone of Patel’s ethnicity cosplaying as a Viking. And among this racially tinged mockery, there was also some revelling in the fact that a stock phrase of violent white supremacy had found its way into the mouth of the director of the FBI.

Tom Birkett receives funding from the European Union (ERC, NorseMap, Project Number 101169706). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.”

– ref. ‘See you in Valhalla’: how the FBI director waded into the far-right’s obsession with the Vikings – https://theconversation.com/see-you-in-valhalla-how-the-fbi-director-waded-into-the-far-rights-obsession-with-the-vikings-266281