Category: The Conversation – UK

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vladimir Bortun, Lecturer in Politics, University of Oxford

Reform UK is expected to expand its foothold in local government in England this week. More than 5,000 seats across 136 councils are being contested, making this one of the largest electoral tests in recent years. It builds on Reform’s breakthrough in 2025, when the party took control of ten local authorities – its first real experience of power.

For scholars of populism, this moment could be revealing. Years of research have focused heavily on the rhetoric of populism, its voter base, and the interaction between the two.

But far less attention has been paid to what populists actually do once in office. Where such research exists, it tends to focus on national governments, with only a small body examining local politics. Local government, however, is where political promises get a quick reality check.

The gap between Reform’s “pro-workers” rhetoric and its party elite’s relatively privileged and pro-business backgrounds has been noted. But the party’s first year in local government provides an opportunity to see whether the social groups it claims to represent also tend to benefit from its exercise of power.

While systematic data on the Reform-led councils is yet to be collected, their track record so far has revealed signs of where this party’s interests might lie – and of what a UK government led by Reform might look like.

Energy: big donors or local interests?

According to a recent report, climate commitments have been scaled back across Reform-run councils. Net-zero targets have been scrapped and climate language removed from policy documents. These decisions align with the party’s broader critique of climate policy as economically burdensome.

It also aligns with the party’s fossil fuel donors, who account for more than two-thirds of Reform’s financial backing. However, it does not necessarily align with the interests of the communities in the councils that it runs.

A good case in point is fracking. Despite its well-known risks to water and air quality, as well as concerns over earthquakes and warming effects, Reform’s leadership has endorsed fracking. The party has pledged to legalise it if it comes into government.

The country, however, is not as keen. According to the most recent polling, only 28% of people in Britain support fracking, compared to 46% opposing it. A survey last year found that nothing puts off Reform supporters more than the party’s ties to the fossil fuel industry. Farmers – 40% of whom now support Reform – have a longstanding scepticism about fracking due to its potential impact on their crops.

In fact, in two other Reform council areas – Lancashire and Scarborough, local representatives have broken from the national party line on fracking. This reflects a broader tension between the interests of its elite backers and those of its popular base.

Social care: when ‘populism’ meets the welfare state

Those contradictions also become visible in the field of social care. In Derbyshire, the Reform-led council’s plan to shut eight care homes was called a “betrayal of local people”. Similar plans in Lancashire entailed the closure of five public care homes as well as five day centres, with residents moved to the private sector.

What is striking is not just the direction of policy, but also the political reaction to it. The privatisation plans in Lancashire were eventually abandoned due to strong local opposition, which came not only from rival parties, but also from Reform grassroots members.

This underlines an insight often missing from populism research: the category of “ordinary people” is not a unified social group. It also indicates the unpopularity of an economic agenda that, with its emphasis on further deregulation, privatisation and tax cuts, might seem to be Thatcherism’s unfinished business.

Taxation: from promises to practice

Reform’s neoliberal outlook on the economy is reflected in the range of tax cuts pledged in its 2024 manifesto. Ahead of the local elections last year, several Reform candidates reiterated these pledges, vowing either to freeze or cut council tax.

The opposite has happened, though. As reported recently, nine Reform councils raised Band D council tax for 2026-27 by an average of 3.94%. And while that was lower than the overall average increase of 4.86%, it shows that – when confronted with budgetary constraints – Reform is willing to follow the same fiscal patterns as other mainstream parties. In other words, by increasing what is ultimately a regressive tax that disproportionately affects poorer households.

This dynamic echoes once again the discrepancy between the party’s “populist” image and its neoliberal, austerity-prone policy agenda.

Reform’s track record in these areas of policymaking points to a broader conclusion. Much of the existing literature treats populism primarily as a discursive phenomenon – a way of framing politics in terms of “the people” versus “the elite”.

But Reform’s experience in local government shows that its actual politics might in fact tilt towards the interest of the latter. This is precisely where current research remains scant.

On the eve of a new round of local elections, Reform is likely to extend its presence across councils in England. But its first year in power already suggests that “the people” it claims to represent are not necessarily the same people who benefit from its rise to power.

Vladimir Bortun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. After a year of Reform UK in local government, the cracks are starting to show – https://theconversation.com/after-a-year-of-reform-uk-in-local-government-the-cracks-are-starting-to-show-282035

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chee Meng Tan, Assistant Professor of Business Economics, University of Nottingham

Europe’s wind turbines have become part of a wider struggle over energy security, industrial power and the west’s dependence on China.

European wind power capacity has surged dramatically in recent years. Wind energy now supplies 17% of EU electricity up from 13% in 2019. Offshore wind has expanded particularly rapidly, with installed capacity growing strongly over the past decade.

But Brussels wants renewables to provide at least 42.5% of the EU’s total energy mix by 2030. Wind is “pivotal” to this strategy, according to the European Commission’s wind power action plan. The challenge for Europe is to meet its 2030 target, it needs to build 33 gigawatts (GW) of new wind turbines annually.

So far, data from 2022, 2023 and 2024 indicates that Europe has averaged only around 16-19 GW of new installations per year. This leaves a significant gap between Europe’s target and its implementation.

Across the Atlantic, the picture is just as uncertain. The US Inflation Reduction Act introduced during Joe Biden’s presidency promised a surge in renewable energy investment, including wind. But growing political opposition to turbines, especially from Donald Trump and his political allies, has cast doubt over how far that momentum can go.

Cheap turbines and fast delivery

Europe’s installation shortfall and the US’s retreat from wind energy create a strategic opening for China. Chinese manufacturers dominate the global wind industry, with six of the top ten turbine makers and producing over 70% of the world’s new wind turbines in 2024. Companies like Goldwind, Envision and Mingyang offer turbines that are 30-40% cheaper than western equivalents and promise faster delivery.

This puts the west in a bind: accept Chinese help to meet climate targets quickly and cheaply, or reject it and risk falling further behind.

Europe could certainly rely on Chinese wind power to close its gap in renewable energy. The same could be said about the US, although its desire to push forward with wind power is not clear. US wind deployment fell to 5.2 GW in 2024, the lowest level in a decade, and turbine orders dropped 50% in the first half of 2025.

However, allowing Chinese firms greater market access creates a real policy dilemma. While purchases of Chinese turbines would speed up Europe’s energy transition and is cost effective, the EU sees China as an economic rival and security risk that potentially undermines the union’s industrial and strategic autonomy.

The US appetite for Chinese wind tech is much lower than Europe’s. Aside from permit delays, grid connection bottlenecks and rising costs, Trump’s return to office in 2025 is an important factor in the US’s renewable slowdown. The US president has publicly labelled wind power “a joke”, and has frozen federal permits for offshore and onshore wind projects, in addition to eliminating renewable energy tax credits.

But that’s not all. Washington views China’s dominance in wind turbine technology as a security threat requiring protectionist barriers, and has effectively blocked Chinese wind technology through various measures. This includes
national security probes into wind turbine imports, 50% tariffs on wind turbines and parts, and tax credit restrictions that bar companies using Chinese-manufactured components from accessing federal clean energy incentives.

Western tariffs haven’t slowed China’s wind industry but have redirected it. Chinese wind turbine exports surged 50% in 2025. By the end of 2025, cumulative exports had exceeded 28 GW, a thirteenfold increase from 2015. Chinese manufacturers are now selling wind turbines to more than 60 countries, and have established production or research operations in more than 20.

Targeting new markets

The pattern is clear: China is targeting developing markets where western competition is weak and renewable energy demand is surging. The biggest purchasers of turbines from China in 2024 were Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Brazil, Egypt and Kazakhstan. All are participants in China’s economic development plan, the Belt and Road Initiative.

But China’s wind momentum shows no signs of slowing. Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia are expected to add 120 GW of wind and solar capacity over the next decade, requiring US$73 billion (£53.5 billion) in investment. Chinese firms already captured over 60% of renewable energy capacity in these markets since 2024, and is set to expand further.

While China’s wind turbine sales to the US and Europe may be uncertain, Beijing has secured a different prize. Since 2013, Chinese companies have installed 156 GW of power capacity across Belt and Road Initiative countries, 70% in Asia and 15% in Africa.

The west may be protecting its own energy independence, but may also be handing the control of Africa and Latin America’s energy future and security to China, if things don’t change.

Chee Meng Tan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Europe’s dilemma – to use China’s turbines to meet its renewable targets or not – https://theconversation.com/europes-dilemma-to-use-chinas-turbines-to-meet-its-renewable-targets-or-not-281475

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chris Perry, Professor in Tropical Coastal Geoscience, University of Exeter

For decades, coral reefs throughout the Caribbean have been suffering from disease, pollution, overfishing and rising sea temperatures, yet most have continued to grow – until now.

In 2023 and 2024, surface temperatures climbed to record highs in the world’s oceans, and a marine heatwave of unprecedented length and intensity spread across the tropics. Satellites from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration detected heat stress that could cause corals to bleach across more than 80% of the planet’s reef areas.

During these periods of extreme stress, corals expel the symbiotic algae that give them their colour and most of their food – turning them stark white and leaving them vulnerable to starvation, diseases and eventually death.

Across the North Atlantic, including the Caribbean, the heat stayed for months, with heat stress two-to-three times higher than reefs had ever experienced. Heat stress, the phenomena of high temperatures putting fragile ecosystems under pressure, can permanently alter their ability to function.

This triggered what is now recognised as the fourth global coral bleaching event, the most severe one that has been documented.

Coral reefs are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth, and their importance to people is fundamental. They feed hundreds of millions through small-scale fisheries, underpin tourism across the Caribbean, and serve as natural breakwaters that protect the coast from storms and reduce flooding events.

Caribbean reefs are eroding fast

In a new study, we found that across the Caribbean, the 2023 marine heatwave – combined with a deadly disease known as stony coral tissue loss disease – has pushed reefs over a threshold scientists thought was a decade or more away. They are now eroding faster than corals can rebuild them.

We studied reefs in the Mexican Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, comparing data collected before the heatwave (2018–2022) with surveys after it (2023–24). At each reef, we counted live corals and organisms that break down the reef, like parrotfish and sea urchins. From those counts, we estimated how much reef-building (carbonate production) and reef-breaking (bioerosion) was happening, then calculated the net result – whether the reef was gaining or losing material.

The results were stark: between 70% and 75% of our Caribbean sites had tipped from net growth into net erosion. They are now losing calcium carbonate faster than corals can add it. The threshold that earlier models had suggested might be crossed over during the next decade or so has already arrived.

This shift was driven by the loss of fast‑growing, branching and plate‑forming corals, especially the Acropora species, which have very high growth rates and disproportionately contribute to reef building.

One of our most unsettling findings is that the Caribbean reef sites that still had high coral cover and high carbonate production before the disease and heatwave were the ones that lost the most. Some lost up to 8 kilograms of calcium carbonate per square metre per year.

A tale of two seas

Our survey also revealed a striking contrast. While Caribbean reefs collapsed, reefs in the Gulf of Mexico largely held their ground. The great majority of Gulf sites remained net positive after the heatwave.

The difference comes down to which corals are pre-eminent in each region. In the Gulf of Mexico, reefs are dominated by slow-growing, mound-shaped corals. They grow more slowly, but they are tougher when the heat kicks in. They bleached during the heatwave but mostly survived, keeping the reef’s carbonate budget positive.

This is the balance between the constructing and eroding processes. When more is added than removed, the coral reef can grow. When that balance flips, the reef stops growing and may even erode.

Moreover, sites in the Gulf of Mexico have not yet been affected by stony coral tissue loss disease, which preferentially kills the same massive, long-lived species that are keeping Gulf reefs alive. By the time the heat arrived, large parts of the Caribbean had already lost their most resilient corals because of the disease outbreak. What it started, the heatwave finished.

Why reef erosion matters

All the benefits reefs provide rely on a delicate balance between reef construction and erosion.

Tropical reefs are essentially vast limestone structures, built slowly over centuries as corals deposit calcium carbonate skeletons. At the same time, waves and various reef organisms like parrotfish, sea urchins and boring sponges chip away at them.

An eroding, flattening reef begins to lose its capacity to provide benefits to other species, and people.

We did not expect to be documenting the moment at which a major region of the ocean crossed from growing to eroding. The fact that it happened this quickly, and at some of the most iconic and well-studied reefs in the Caribbean, suggests the timelines scientists have been using may be too optimistic.

Our findings may also force a rethink of how to approach coral restoration. Programmes across the Caribbean have invested heavily in replanting fast-growing branching species of coral, such as Acropora, because they rebuild structural complexity quickly. The 2023–24 heatwave wiped out many of these restored populations, along with wild ones.

Restoration will have to diversify. Exploring approaches such as moving heat-tolerant genes between populations (assisted gene flow) and breeding corals that survive heat better (selective breeding) might be a promising path.

But restoration alone will not be enough. Reversing the decline requires rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to slow the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves, alongside serious local action on pollution, nutrient runoff, sedimentation and disease – the stressors that weaken corals before the heat arrives.

Chris Perry receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council.

Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Massive marine heatwave caused Caribbean coral reefs to collapse much faster than predicted – new research – https://theconversation.com/massive-marine-heatwave-caused-caribbean-coral-reefs-to-collapse-much-faster-than-predicted-new-research-281478

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Heather Ellis, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, School of Education, University of Sheffield

The UK government has launched its first review of school food standards in over a decade, alongside plans to extend free school meals to an additional 500,000 children in families receiving universal credit.

Much of the coverage has focused on specific menu changes, including the possible removal of sugary desserts such as steamed sponge. The focus on such changes might be reflective of how school food has never been only about nutrition for those who have experienced it. It is also about welfare, discipline, pleasure, stigma and care.

The School Meals Service: Past, Present – and Future? is a project I worked on that brings together archival research, oral histories and ethnographic work in schools across the UK. We were also the principal academic partner for the Food Museum’s ongoing School Dinners exhibition near Ipswich, which explores the changing history of school meals through objects, menus, memories and tastes – from semolina and sponge pudding to Turkey Twizzlers.

Since school meals were first introduced in legislation in 1906, they have changed repeatedly. Early provision was patchy and often associated with charity. After the 1944 Education Act, school meals became part of the postwar welfare settlement, intended to provide children with a nutritious meal during the school day.

For decades, the classic image of the school dinner was “meat and two veg”, followed by puddings such as sponge, semolina, rice pudding, jam roly-poly or custard.

From the 1980s, the provision of school meals became more fragmented. Nutritional standards were removed, local authorities had more freedom, and commercial catering reshaped menus. Later debates around Turkey Twizzlers and processed food, driven by people like celebrity chef Jamie Oliver, were part of this longer story. Today’s government review of school food standards is another chapter in that history.

What children remember

When people recall school dinners, they rarely talk about calories or guidelines. They remember texture, smell and noise.

Joanne, who attended school in Surrey and East Yorkshire from the late 1960s to 1980, described being served vegetables she could not eat: “Mush. Cold … you can’t have that unless you eat your beans … it put me off for life.”

The dining hall mattered as much as the food. Ella, who went to school in Rotherham from 1996 to 2010, remembered the anxiety of a space where “someone would puke and I would freak out … I can’t be in here”. Lauren, who attended schools in Northumbria and Merseyside from 1998 to 2012, recalled mashed potato that “you could pick up with a fork and it would just stick”.

Stigma, inequality and school food

School meals could also expose inequality. Free school meals have long been a vital safety net, but they have also carried stigma.

Joyce, who went to school in Glasgow in the 1960s, remembered the teacher calling children forward with the phrase “come out the frees”. She described it as “the walk of shame”.

Naomi, who attended school in Birmingham in the 1980s, showed how this could intersect with racism. Her mother paid for school meals despite financial strain because she worried Naomi might be singled out: “there weren’t many Black kids in my school”.

Yet school dinners were also remembered with affection. For many people, puddings such as sponge and custard were the best part of the day. For others they evoke control, compulsion or, like for Joyce and Naomi, embarrassment. That is why the removal of steamed sponge resonates. It is not just dessert. It is part of a shared national memory.

Beyond the menu

The Food Museum exhibition captures this complexity. Visitors encounter the familiar foods, but also the people behind them: pupils, parents, cooks, dinner staff, teachers and policymakers.

The exhibition, which has been shortlisted for a 2026 Museums and Heritage Award, draws directly on our research into how school meals changed over time and why those changes mattered socially, economically and culturally.

Today’s reforms emphasise healthier ingredients, more fruit and vegetables, fewer fried foods and less sugar. These aims matter. History and our research suggests what is served matters. So do the dining hall, the queue, the noise, the payment system, the stigma, the pleasure and the memories children carry into adulthood.

School dinners are one of the most widely shared experiences of British childhood. As they continue to evolve it is worth considering not just what is on the plate, but how it feels to eat it.

The School Dinners Exhibition is on at the Food Museum in Suffolk until February 21 2027

Heather Ellis received ESRC funding for The School Meals Service: Past, Present – and Future? project

– ref. School dinners are changing: the strong emotions and memories around these meals reflect their social, economical and cultural importance – https://theconversation.com/school-dinners-are-changing-the-strong-emotions-and-memories-around-these-meals-reflect-their-social-economical-and-cultural-importance-281917

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Berenice Langdon, Senior Lecturer and Honorary Consultant, St George’s, University of London

Standing by the counter at the pharmacist waiting to pick up my prescription, I couldn’t help noticing the prominent display of probiotics on the counter. It was two years ago, and I was reading everything I could find on microbiomes and probiotics – whether in books, journals or in shops – in preparation for writing my book The Microbiome: What Everyone Needs to Know.

For days I had focused just on probiotics and here they were, temptingly in front of me, ready for me to buy. The packaging was so glossy and it’s claims so intriguing, I found myself picking up the box to see what they were saying.

“Supporting gut health.” “Friendly bacteria.”

I was about to get antibiotics for my tonsillitis. Should I get some probiotics? I’d heard they might help replace the “good” gut bacteria that antibiotics can wipe out.

The pharmacist knew me by sight, partly because he had just looked down my throat and prescribed them for me and partly because I’m a local GP. He nodded encouragingly and pointed at the display. “These are very popular,” he said.

I turned the box over. The packaging did best when describing what it contained. Thirty capsules to be taken every day, each containing 5 billion live cultures. I compared it with the others on the shelf. Some contained 2 billion, some 10 billion. One contained 25 billion bacteria per capsule. It was a huge number and a huge dosage range. Were these dosages safe?

It wasn’t so clear on what live cultures were exactly, describing them variously as “trusted” or “friendly”. Higher-dose brands described themselves as “diverse” or “powerful”, sounding more like the boardroom of a Fortune 500 company than a dietary supplement.

When it came to what they did, things became vague. Apparently, probiotics are there to “complement your natural gut bacteria” or alternatively to “complement your everyday life”.

It took a bit of time for the pharmacist to package up my medication and label it, so I carried on and read the small print. Each brand was very confident its ability to survive the stomach acid: they were also confident on the research. “Most researched live culture.” “Highly researched strains.” I had no difficulty in believing this, it was the lack of claims to efficacy that baffled me.

Finally, I found the actual ingredients. Each listed their various combinations of bacteria, some containing up to 15 different sorts, but always including several versions of lactobacilli and bifidobactera.

Lactobacillus acidophilus I knew as a bacteria needed to make yogurt. Bifidobacteria are also often used in the food industry. Both are typical residents of our guts, known to account for about 12% of our usual gut bacteria.

So why do probiotic products all seem to contain the same bacterial species? And why are their claims always so deliberately vague?

Almost one in 20 adults are taking probiotics: typically those of us with higher educational levels, higher incomes and better diets. If we just knew a bit more about microbes, would we still want to take them?

Stomach acid – the great destroyer

It is normal to consume a lot of bacteria on our food. Even with freshly washed or cooked food, on a typical day we consume 1.3 billion bacteria a day either on or in our food.

As soon as our food hits the stomach, our high levels of stomach acid kill or injure almost all the bacteria we consume. Only a few ever reach the colon and those few probiotic bacteria that survive usually only ever stay a few days.

But to swallow a probiotic capsule containing 25 billion, is 20 times the number of bacteria our body is used to handling: a huge microbial load. Even “friendly” probiotic bacteria can cause a serious infection if they get in the wrong place, such as the blood stream. It’s true that most people can manage this huge microbial load fine because of our innate gut defence systems. But probiotics should be avoided by those with weak immune systems, who may be less able to keep these bacteria contained and are at higher risk of them spreading and causing infection.

The reason that out of all the millions of bacteria available in the world, probiotic brands always home in on exactly the same microbes is because these are all bacteria that are known to be safe or used in the food industry since before 1958. If a microbe is officially designated “Generally Recognized As Safe”, then the producer need undertake no further research. And if the producer then sticks to general claims of efficacy – what’s known as a “qualified health claim”, they don’t even have to prove it works.

But even with no efficacy claims at all, the probiotic industry still seems to get its message across – and, as I handled the box of probiotics, I still had a strong feeling that this product was good for me, would make me healthier and that I should buy it.

I held the box uncertainly. “Do you want these as well?” the pharmacist asked.
I checked the price: £17.99 for 30 probiotic capsules (low dose) for something I already had inside me from eating ordinary food. I decided to stick to the antibiotic prescription only, for £9.90.

So, do probiotics work? I have learned to equivocate when asked this, because people who ask me – usually enthusiastically and with a smile – are invested in the concept of probiotics and have often already been taking them. To avoid upsetting people I now usually say: “Well, they probably haven’t done you any harm.” Apart from the cost.

Berenice Langdon is the author of: The microbiome: What Everyone Needs to Know, published by Oxford University Press.

– ref. Probiotics: what are we swallowing? – https://theconversation.com/probiotics-what-are-we-swallowing-280999

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anwen Elias, Reader in Politics, Aberystwyth University

Wales is going to the polls on May 7 to elect members to the Senedd (Welsh parliament). And the results could bring big change to the country. The polls are suggesting that this election will result in the biggest shake-up to the political landscape since the creation of the National Assembly for Wales in 1999.

Labour looks likely to lose significant electoral support, with Plaid Cymru and Reform vying to replace it as the largest party in the Senedd. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are hoping to retain a parliamentary presence, while other parties (such as the Greens) may well secure their first ever seats in the Senedd.

The outcome of the election is made even more uncertain by changes to how elections work for the Senedd. A proportional electoral system has been introduced, to elect a larger number of representatives (from 60 to 96 members), who will represent 16 new constituencies.

In this context of political uncertainty, the Welsh Election Study 2026 has been asking people what they think about the Senedd election, and democracy more broadly in Wales. My team surveyed more than 10,000 people across Wales, two-thirds of whom told us that they’re interested in the election.

Most felt that who wins the election will make a difference to how Wales is governed. Most voters understand that different political parties offer alternative agendas for running the country, and that they have an important choice to make on polling day.

And yet, while some are approaching this election with a sense of hope, the vast majority are much less positive. When we asked people to describe in a word how they feel about the election, sentiments such as disappointment, frustration and worry were among the main ones.

This reaction is striking in a campaign where many of the political parties are framing the election as a positive opportunity for change.

We also found that most people do not know what changes have been made to the workings of the election this time around. There is also a mixed picture in terms of the electorate’s understanding of what the role of the Senedd actually is.

Most people knew that the Welsh government is responsible for policies such as roads and housing, but almost two-thirds thought it was also in charge of policing, when this is actually the responsibility of the UK government.

There’s also a clear and consistent age dimension to this knowledge gap. Only 28% of respondents aged 16-24 knew that the Welsh government is responsible for the NHS in Wales, compared to 62.7% of those aged 65 and over.

Disillusionment with Welsh democracy

There are also signs of a broader disconnect between voters and political institutions in Wales. Most people told us that they don’t have much trust in government. While this sentiment was most strongly felt in relation to the UK government, it was also expressed in relation to Welsh and local government.

Most people do not feel that they have much influence over decisions at any level. Our data indicates that many Welsh voters feel disillusioned with democratic politics, and don’t feel that their lives are getting any better or easier as a result of the Welsh government’s policies.

We’ve seen evidence of this disconnect with politics in the number of people who have turned out to vote in previous devolved elections. This has never surpassed 50% of eligible voters, and has consistently been lower than turnout for UK general elections in Wales.

The lack of enthusiasm that our data has uncovered towards this Senedd election is one reason to expect turnout to remain low this time around. But what could help buck this trend is how close the contest appears to be and the uncertainty around the outcome. Some voters may be mobilised to cast their ballot because they feel that doing so could really make a difference to the result.

The challenge ahead

Once the next Welsh government has been formed, attention will shift to implementing the manifesto promises made during the campaign. Tackling the big policy challenges facing Wales – such as long NHS waiting lists and low educational outcomes – is critical to rebuilding people’s trust in the Senedd and the Welsh government.

There’s much more that needs be done to address the disconnect that many people in Wales feel with the democratic process. Better education and information around politics is critical – everyone in Wales must understand how the country is run, and how elections to the Senedd work.

There is plenty of international evidence that giving people a direct role in policy development and decision-making between elections – through initiatives such as participatory budgeting or citizens’ assemblies – can increase voters’ confidence in the democratic system.

Our research gives us a useful insight into how people are thinking about and experiencing electoral democracy in Wales right now. Strengthening Welsh democracy in the longer term also means thinking about how we talk about, and practise, democracy in between elections.

Anwen Elias receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

– ref. Wales is looking at a huge shake-up in the Senedd – so why are voters so disenchanted? – https://theconversation.com/wales-is-looking-at-a-huge-shake-up-in-the-senedd-so-why-are-voters-so-disenchanted-281763

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francisco Rowe, Professor of Population Data Science, University of Liverpool

Since US and Israeli strikes began on the last day of February, millions of Iranians have been living under attack, an internet blackout and tight restrictions on journalists and humanitarian agencies.

But many people are on the move, trying to get away from dangerous places or to be reunited with family at a time of conflict. In an information blackout, with internet access almost completely shut down across Iran, it’s hard to build a detailed picture of this population movement. But in the absence of conventional data on internal population displacement, we have been piecing together where people are moving by looking at faint but persistent signals of internet activity.

Our latest analysis and situation report covering the war since its outbreak, shows a clear geographic pattern and timeline of movement.

This is one of the first near real-time pictures of displacement within Iran. It complements cross-border figures from the UN’s International Organization for Migration, which recorded roughly 40,000 departures from Iran between March 3 and 10, mainly to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Our data offers a partial view of movement inside the country, where conventional methods of counting displaced people have largely broken down.

What the data show

In the first days of the war, our estimates indicate relative increases in population presence in provinces near the borders with Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan. As the conflict evolved, the pattern shifted eastward and towards the capital. By the third week, provinces bordering Afghanistan and Tehran showed the strongest signs of population concentration.

Tehran stands out. Despite being repeatedly struck by Israeli and US missiles, the Iranian capital shows what appears to be a modest rise in population compared with its pre-war baseline. That is consistent with research on other conflicts, where capital cities often absorb displaced people. This is because, even under bombardment, they usually offer better access to services and infrastructure.

Central and southwestern provinces, such as Qom, Isfahan, Fars and Zanjan/Qazvin – several of which host nuclear, military and defence production sites – show signs of sustained declines in estimated presence. These are also the areas with the highest concentration of recorded strikes on the Iran Strike Map, an open-source intelligence website which plots strikes on and by Iran in this conflict based on verified reports. The alignment between strikes and population declines is one of the strongest validation points in our analysis.

How we know

Weeks of active hostilities and Iran’s tight information controls have closed off most of the usual population statistics we might rely on to track population movements. Instead, we use what researchers call digital trace data – the everyday digital footprints people leave when they use connected devices.

GPS-based mobile data and Meta’s population maps have been useful in other crises, but for Iran, they are unavailable. So our main source is Cloudflare Radar, a US-based content delivery network which publishes aggregated, anonymised counts of encrypted web requests passing through its network, broken down by province.

Despite the widespread internet shutdowns, some weak internet signal remains and we were able use it, translate it to population numbers and compare these numbers with a baseline control set in December 2025 to assess increases and decreases in population. More requests than usual is a tentative signal that more people are present and online. Fewer requests may suggest fewer people or less activity.

We built a baseline model for December 2025 translating provincial internet traffic to population numbers, using WorldPop population estimates. We then applied that baseline to each day of the war, adjusting for network shocks and coverage, and cross-checked the patterns against Farsi Wikipedia pageviews for border regions and against recorded strike locations. Obviously at a time of internet restriction pageviews tend to be very few, so this information serves as validation only for our other evidence. A full account of the methods we used, with interactive maps, are on the project website.

Why it matters

The UN’s International Organization for Migration has already reported rapidly evolving displacement across more than 20 Iranian provinces. But with the internet cut, journalists barred and little official information available, even a rough picture of internal movement matters. Our findings point humanitarian agencies to three pressure points: the northwestern border corridor, the provinces adjoining Afghanistan and Tehran’s hinterland.

These patterns also matter politically. US and Israeli officials have framed the campaign as a targeted operation against Iran’s nuclear, missile and leadership infrastructure. Our data indicate whether strikes hit their intended targets. But they do show that the civilian response extends well beyond the struck sites. Estimated population is falling across several provinces and rising in others, including areas without major military infrastructure. However precise the targeting, the human footprint of this war is broad and spatially uneven.

What the data cannot show

These are proxy estimates, not head counts – they capture relative population change, not absolute numbers. There are three main caveats to consider.

First, Iran’s near-total internet blackout has kept national connectivity at 1–4% of normal levels for much of this period. A drop in requests from a province could reflect people leaving. It could also mean a cut cable or a shutdown order. We adjust for these effects, but uncertainty remains high.

Second, the data only capture people with internet-connected devices. Although we adjusted our estimates to mitigate biases, children, the elderly and poorer households may be underrepresented. Ethnic minorities who read primarily in Azerbaijani Turkish or Kurdish are less visible in our Farsi Wikipedia cross-check, which covers roughly half the population.

Third, we analyse movements that correlate with or follow attacks, not movements caused by them. People also flee ahead of strikes, return between them or move for reasons unrelated to the war. The alignment with strike data strengthens the case, but it does not prove it.

In past crises, from Ukraine to Sudan, researchers and humanitarian agencies have increasingly turned to digital trace data when the usual sources are unavailable. Iran is a hard case. Since the war began, the state has imposed a near-total internet blackout, keeping connectivity for officials and state media but cutting off most of the population, using control of the network as an instrument of wartime information control.

Even so, the digital traces still carry information about where life goes on, and where it has stopped. Used carefully – and with clear caveats – they can help the outside world maintain some visibility of a population that is otherwise hard to see.

Francisco Rowe receives funding from the Economic Social Research Council for supporting DEBIAS (ES/Y010787/1).

Carmen Cabrera receives funding from UK’s Economic and Social Research Council.

Elisabetta Pietrostefani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Where Iranians are going under fire – a real-time picture of displacement – https://theconversation.com/where-iranians-are-going-under-fire-a-real-time-picture-of-displacement-281353

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vikram Niranjan, Assistant Professor in Public Health, School of Medicine, Health Research Institute, University of Limerick

Cruises are sold as floating holidays, but they are also useful for understanding public health. Cruise ships are carefully designed places where many people live, eat, relax and move through the same shared spaces for days at a time. They show how easily illness can spread when people are packed into a single interconnected environment.

Think of a cruise ship as a temporary city at sea. It has restaurants, theatres, lifts, cabins, kitchens, water systems and indoor gathering spaces. That is great for convenience, but it also means that once an infection gets on board, it can move through the ship in ways that are hard to stop.

The Diamond Princess outbreak is perhaps the best-known example. During the 2020 COVID outbreak, 619 passengers and crew tested positive for the disease. Researchers found that the ship conditions made the novel coronavirus spread more easily. Their modelling suggested that public health measures, such as isolation and quarantine, prevented many more cases, but it also showed that an earlier response would have further limited the outbreak.

Norovirus (the so-called vomiting bug) is the infection most closely linked to cruise ships. In a review of previously published studies, researchers found 127 reports of norovirus outbreaks on cruise ships, with many linked to contaminated food, contaminated surfaces and person-to-person spread. A more recent report from the US also showed that norovirus can spread very rapidly from person to person on a cruise ship.

This helps explain why ships such as Celebrity Mercury, Explorer of the Seas and Carnival Triumph have become familiar names in outbreak reports. These were not unusual in some special way; they were simply settings where shared dining, close contact and frequent movement through common areas allowed infection to spread fast.

Food service plays a big part in this risk. Buffet-style dining, shared utensils and many people touching the same surfaces can make it easier for stomach bugs to spread. If someone is infected but does not yet feel sick, they may still contaminate food or surfaces before they realise they are unwell.

The ship’s design adds to the problem. People spend time together in dining rooms, bars, lifts, corridors, theatres and spa areas. Crew members also live and work in the same environment, often in shared accommodation, so illness can move through the ship from passenger to passenger or between passengers and crew.

Ventilation also plays a crucial role. Cruise ships are not closed boxes, but they do rely heavily on indoor spaces where people spend long periods together. Studies into cruise ship air quality have shown that illness can spread more easily in crowded, enclosed spaces, like cabins, restaurants and entertainment venues, if the ventilation system is not up to scratch. Things like adequate fresh air circulation, specialist filters and air-purifying technology all play a role in keeping passengers safe.

Legionnaires’ disease (a serious lung disease caused by bacteria) shows a different kind of risk. It is not usually spread directly from one person to another. Instead, people can get infected by breathing in tiny droplets from contaminated water systems, hot tubs or showers.

A well-known outbreak among cruise passengers was linked to a whirlpool spa, and recent reports from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have described other cruise-associated legionnaires’ disease outbreaks linked to ship water systems.

Age also matters. Cruise holidays are especially popular with older adults, and many passengers have long-term health conditions that make infections more serious. A stomach bug on a cruise can lead to dehydration, and a respiratory infection can lead to pneumonia or hospital care.

Cruise ships do have medical facilities, but they are limited compared with land-based hospitals. They are built to give first aid, basic treatment and short-term care, not to manage a fast-moving outbreak on a large scale. That is why cruise health depends so much on early reporting, quick isolation and strong cleaning practices.

Other infections such as respiratory viruses, including influenza, can spread in the same crowded indoor settings, and stomach bugs can spread through food, hands and shared surfaces. COVID and flu exploit enclosed air and crowds. Norovirus loves buffets and surfaces. Legionnaires’ targets water systems, which ships can’t easily sterilise. Hantavirus (a severe respiratory illness spread by rodents) outbreaks on ships are rare. However, as recent news of the deaths on the MV Hondius attests, germs in close quarters find it much easier to spread.

How to limit your risk

As an epidemiologist, I have seen many outbreaks in hospitals, schools and even flights. For travellers, the best protection starts before boarding. It is sensible to check whether the cruise line has clear illness reporting, cleaning and isolation policies. Make sure your routine vaccines are up to date. And for older adults, pregnant women and anyone with health problems, consult your GP before travelling. Also, ensure your travel insurance covers illness-related disruptions.

Once on board, washing your hands with soap and water is the most useful step for preventing stomach bugs like norovirus. Hand sanitiser can help, but it does not replace soap and water. If you start to feel unwell, the safest move is to avoid buffets and crowded shared spaces and report symptoms early rather than trying to carry on as normal.

Cruise lines have improved their hygiene and outbreak response systems over time, and many voyages pass without incident. But the basic structure of cruise travel still creates the same challenge: many people sharing the same meals, the same air, the same water systems and the same common spaces. That is why outbreaks keep returning, and why cruise ships remain a useful reminder that public health is shaped as much by design as by germs.

Vikram Niranjan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Hantavirus, COVID, norovirus, legionnaires’: why are cruise ships so prone to disease outbreaks? – https://theconversation.com/hantavirus-covid-norovirus-legionnaires-why-are-cruise-ships-so-prone-to-disease-outbreaks-282121

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Audrey Morley, Lecturer in Physical Geography, University of Galway

For generations, the mild and temperate climate of north-western Europe has been credited to one legendary force: the Gulf Stream. This idea is so deeply entrenched in our cultural identity that in James Joyce’s Ulysses, the protagonist Stephen Dedalus refuses to take a bath, arguing that “all Ireland is washed by the Gulf Stream”.

However, the Gulf Stream is just one part of a much more complex system called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC.

To explain this better, scientists often use the image of a giant ocean conveyor belt, where warm waters move northwards across the surface of the Atlantic from the tropics. As these waters reach the North Atlantic, they release their heat into the atmosphere, much like a radiator. The AMOC also carries the moisture that gives us our temperate landscape. After the waters have released their heat, they become colder and denser, which makes them sink into the deep ocean. These waters then return southward, at great depths.

When scientists talk about the AMOC “slowing down” or “changing,” they are essentially describing a reduction in the strength of our natural radiator. Specifically, they measure how much water is moving north and south at different depths across the Atlantic. This allows them to estimate how much heat is being carried from the tropics toward the North Atlantic and back again at depth.

More than a conveyor belt

Although this “conveyor belt” analogy is a helpful starting point, modern research suggests it is incomplete and potentially misleading. For example, the system is incredibly sensitive to how seawater changes its weight and density as it interacts with the atmosphere, freshwater, ice and incoming solar radiation. Because of these additional processes, the AMOC behaves less like a single, steady loop and more like a network of interconnected regional components.

Different parts of the system can change independently, sometimes with only regional effects and sometimes with consequences for the entire system.

The Subpolar Gyre (SPG), a system of wind-driven ocean currents occupying the region from the Labrador Sea to the west of Ireland, is a powerful example of why the network perspective matters. This regional AMOC component can show a significant degree of independence from the global AMOC. It is controlled by local winds and pulses of freshwater, linked to changes in sea-ice.

Crucially for those of us in Ireland and the UK, a sudden weakening of the SPG could trigger abnormally cold winter weather, similar to conditions seen during the “little ice age”. This period of intense regional cooling, which lasted roughly from the early 14th century to the mid-19th century, was characterised by winters so severe that the River Thames froze over.

Scientific research suggests that this cold period was likely sustained and amplified by a regional change in the SPG while the AMOC remained relatively stable. This means we could face local climate shifts, including increased storminess and colder winters, because of a “flicker” in our regional component of the AMOC network, long before the entire global circulation reaches a tipping point.

This is why scientists are now focused on identifying early warning signs of instability within the AMOC.

Are there signs that the AMOC has already begun to change? While climate models agree that it is likely that the AMOC will destabilise this century due to global warming, direct scientific observations of the AMOC are still too short to give us a definitive answer.

Networks of monitoring tools like Rapid or OSNAP that measure the transport of water both at depth and at the surface have only been in place for about 20 years. In the life of a massive ocean system, this is just a heartbeat. Scientists estimate we may need 30 to 40+ years of continuous observations to clearly detect a long-term AMOC decline against the ocean’s natural variability.

Why does it matter?

For generations, societies, economies and infrastructures in north-western Europe have been built around a stable, mild and wet climate. If this natural radiator fails or even significantly weakens the consequences will ripple across Ireland, the UK and the European continent.

We should care about this because the AMOC currently moves a massive amount of heat
from the tropics to the North Atlantic, where it is released into the atmosphere. A weakening of this system means that a portion of this tropical warmth is no longer delivered to our region as effectively, leading to cooling across northwestern Europe.

While Hollywood depicted a sudden ice age in the film The Day After Tomorrow (2004), the scientific reality of a slowdown is no less concerning. We could face significantly colder winters resulting in more frequent harsh freezes, snow and severe frosts. During the little ice age a weaker SPG led to agricultural failures and famines. We could also experience an increase in storminess shifting rainfall patterns, and drier summers, all of which could damage critical infrastructures like roads and crop harvests.

The AMOC is also essential for keeping carbon and heat stored in the deep ocean, effectively locking it away from the atmosphere. At the moment the world’s oceans absorb approximately 25-30% of all human-made carbon dioxide emissions each year.

However, should the AMOC slow down it is expected that the rate at which carbon is stored in the deep ocean also slows down. The AMOC also redistributes the nutrients that sustain marine ecosystems. A disruption here wouldn’t just change our weather; it would weaken the ocean’s ability to act as a carbon sink, potentially accelerating global warming in a dangerous feedback loop.

Keeping an eye on the AMOC is a matter of national and regional security.

Whether the decline is gradual or approaches a tipping point, the impact on our way of life will be profound. By listening to the signals coming from the deep ocean today, we can better prepare for the climate of tomorrow.

Audrey Morley receives funding from Research Ireland, The Marine Institute, The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Ireland) and the Geological Survey of Ireland

– ref. The ocean system that shapes Europe’s climate – https://theconversation.com/the-ocean-system-that-shapes-europes-climate-281056

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Trudy Meehan, Lecturer, Centre for Positive Psychology and Health, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences

The key to better wellbeing is acting like an Italian grandmother, according to social media’s “nonnamaxxing” trend.

Proponents of the trend say that adopting the lifestyle habits of an Italian nonna will help improve your health and mental wellbeing. The core principles of the trend are simple: make time for your friends and loved ones, eat foods grown from your own garden and cook hearty meals at home.

This latest trend borrows from lifestyle medicine research which shows the same practices being advocated by nonnamaxxing enthusiasts can not only add years to your life, but add life to your years.

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No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

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So instead of jumping on the nonnamaxxing bandwagon until the next trend rolls around, here are some examples of how you can adopt these habits for life.

Positive social connections

A core tenet of “nonnamaxxing” is making time for friends and loved ones.

Research shows maintaining positive social connections is one of the most helpful factors in supporting health across your lifespan. Social experiences help us regulate emotionally. Not only does this impact our happiness and wellbeing, it also has a whole host of other physiological benefits.

For instance, laughing with our loved ones or holding their hand reduces pain and dampens the stress response. Research also shows social connection can reduce inflammation and improve immune responses.

This doesn’t mean you need to rush out and get married – it’s not just about romantic relationships. Relationships come in many forms. Even micro-moments of positive social interaction – such as having a brief chat with a barista – have measurable health and wellbeing benefits. Research has also found that people who volunteer have a lower risk of catching the common cold.

Collective experiences such as concerts, rituals, dancing, singing or cheering together can also generate “collective effervescence” – a feeling of unity, aliveness and belonging.

When we interact in person, our brains and bodies synchronise with that person in a way that feels good, supports connection and supports health. We feel a greater sense of purpose, belonging and self-worth.

Try gardening

Physical activity and moving every day are among key factors that have been linked with longevity.

But this doesn’t mean you need to hit the gym or go running to see benefits. Even gardening, an activity we might typically associated with an Italian nonna’s lifestyle, has been associated with health benefits.

Gardening is a physically stimulating activity that translates into increased mobility and reduced sedentary behaviour. Reviews also show it’s good for mental health and quality of life.

Due to its multimodal nature, gardening stimulates the brain. We need to plan, coordinate, remember to remember and monitor changes in our garden over time. This type of stimulation supports the development of cognitive reserve – additional healthy brain tissue that helps offset the functional impairments of diseased brain matter as we age. This may explain why activities such as gardening are associated with lower likelihood of being diagnosed with dementia.

Home-cooked meals

Another core tenet of nonnamaxxing is cooking meals at home.

The more frequently you cook at home, the better. Those who cook their own meals tend to have a higher intake of fruit, vegetables and fiber. Cooking at home also means you tend to consume fewer calories, fats and added sugar, which may help regulate blood sugar, reduce body fat and prevent type 2 diabetes.

In the field of positive psychology, cooking is described as an activity that captures key parts of what makes us happy – such as positive emotions and a sense of meaning and accomplishment.

How to get started

If you’re keen to give nonnamaxxing a try, here are a few easy ways to be more like an Italian nonna in your everyday life.

We all know by now that socialising and meeting friends and family is good for us, but if you can’t get together in person make use of technology.

Although technology isn’t quite as good as real-life interactions, try making these interactions intentional when they do happen. Being emotionally responsive, engaged and letting your loved one know you’re there – even while texting – can increase connection and warmth.

And when contacting friends or family, try to call – or at least send a voice message. Social interactions using our voices create stronger social connection compared to text-based interactions.

To give gardening a try, start with something small that grows easily. Even if it’s just a small tomato or strawberry plant you can put on your windowsill. This will give you a sense of purpose, and you’ll be able to enjoy the fruits of your labour, too, which is good for your health.

If you don’t want the responsibility of a garden, getting outside and being in nature – especially in parks or near rivers – will boost both physical activity levels and improve health and wellbeing.

As for cooking your meals at home, don’t feel like you need to start with a complicated recipe. Start with making sandwiches or even snacks and build up to cooking a dinner. Remember, cooking is a skill; you can learn by following a recipe or cooking video.

If you don’t have the time to cook, try eating with someone. Eating together boosts social connection and provides a sense of safety and belonging. If you don’t have anyone to eat with, try picking a food or meal that reminds you of a loved one. This food nostalgia can reproduce feelings of warmth and connection.

While the nonnamaxxing trend may be forgotten in a week, it describes a way of living that’s generations old. Living like an Italian grandma hasn’t just passed the test of time, it’s been tested by health and wellbeing researchers too.

Trudy Meehan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. TikTok’s ‘nonnamaxxing’ trend explained: here’s how living like an Italian grandma can benefit health and wellbeing – https://theconversation.com/tiktoks-nonnamaxxing-trend-explained-heres-how-living-like-an-italian-grandma-can-benefit-health-and-wellbeing-281073