It’s challenging to predict extreme thunderstorms — improving this will help reduce their deadly and costly impacts

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By David Sills, Director, Northern Tornadoes Project, Western University

Our ability to predict extreme weather from thunderstorms, like the recent catastrophic flash floods in Texas, is unsettlingly poor, even in the hours leading up to the event. Improvements in understanding, detecting and predicting extreme thunderstorms — and increasing community resilience to them — are badly needed.




Read more:
The anatomy of a flash flood: Why the Texas flood was so deadly


Severe thunderstorms are a regular aspect of summer weather in Canada. A severe storm becomes extreme when the intensity of a thunderstorm hazard (tornado, downburst, damaging hail or flooding rains) escalates to a level rarely observed. Or, when the impacts of a storm are extreme due to enhanced exposure and vulnerability, resulting in significant casualties and economic losses. In some cases, both intensity and impacts are extreme.

Footage from The Weather Network of flooding in Calgary in July 2025.

At the new Canadian Severe Storms Laboratory at Western University, we’re exploring how to understand and reduce risks produced by extreme weather. Research projects include the Northern Tornadoes Project, the Northern Hail Project, the Northern Mesonet Project and an upcoming project focusing on thunderstorm flash flooding.

Extreme storms

We compiled a list of the top 10 worst natural disasters in Canada, ranked by insured losses over the last 20 years. While the 2016 fire that devastated Fort McMurray, Alta., tops the list, half of the events are associated with extreme thunderstorms.

This includes two Calgary-area hailstorms in 2020 and 2024, the Ontario-Québec derecho of 2022 and two Toronto-area flash floods (2024 and 2013). Each of these disasters cost close to $1 billion or more in insured losses.

One commonality among these events is that on the morning of the extreme event, there was little to no indication that an extreme thunderstorm would occur. In fact, in each case, it was not clear even during the storm that an extreme event was underway. Clearly, this affects the accuracy, timeliness and urgency of weather alerts meant to keep people safe.

Another commonality is that extreme thunderstorms can have a very short “fuse.” Unlike heat waves, droughts and other larger-scale phenomena, the threat due to thunderstorm-related extreme weather can increase suddenly.

Risk assessment and unreasonable data

A simple model of risk is “hazard” x “vulnerability”, which means that the risk to people and property can be determined based on both the type, intensity and coverage of a dangerous weather phenomenon and the ability of households and infrastructure to cope with and recover from the hazard’s harmful impacts.

Weather forecasters are trained to analyze and synthesize all available meteorological data to identify the most likely future state of the atmosphere and any related risks.

This often involves dismissing extreme outliers — if the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are even able to predict them — and focusing on more plausible forecasts. Weather observation networks are also not optimized for extreme weather; sometimes, critical data are lost in power outages or are suppressed because they go beyond what is deemed reasonable.

With the 2013 Toronto flood, for example, even cutting-edge NWP models using a variety of different approaches were unable to reproduce the focused rainfall that resulted in the flash flooding. Future NWP models need to be optimized for handling such extreme events.

Extreme impacts

On the vulnerability side of the equation, it is rarely clear where exactly a storm — be it severe or extreme — will hit, even just hours before. If it affects a vulnerable area, like a tornado hitting tightly packed homes in a subdivision or heavy rain affecting a campground surrounded by steep terrain, then impacts are likely to be extreme.

So what actions are required to optimize detecting, forecasting and alerting for extreme thunderstorms? First, a more sophisticated model of risk might be:

risk = (hazard x vulnerability x exposure) / resilience

This helps to further refine the risk.

To enhance our ability to detect, predict and alert for extreme thunderstorm hazards, we need to develop techniques and tools to better identify situations where the outlier solution may be plausible or even realistic, given the conditions.

This is required both for NWP models that are increasingly used for forecasting, and for observation networks such as weather stations and radars that can indicate to a forecaster that a warning is needed immediately.

To know where hazards occur most frequently, we need to know the hazard’s climatology — the locations where it is strongest or occurs most frequently. This requires collecting vast quantities of data, assessing the intensity of hazards and ensuring the quality of the data. Improved data will allow decision-makers to minimize costs, ensuring that the benefits of the measures outstrip the costs.

Improved knowledge about community vulnerability is also important. Up-to-date flood maps are critical for understanding how heavy rain may turn into disastrous flash flooding, for example. However, preparing a community for an event having an intensity it has never experienced before is an additional challenge.

Resilient communities

As urbanization continues and cities grow outward, exposure to hazards is increased. What were once fields or flatlands become vulnerable residential or industrial developments.

Communities can improve their resilience to extreme thunderstorms through short-term coping tactics and longer-term adaptive strategies — particuarly as weather extremes in general increase due to climate change.

Overall, improving our ability to detect, predict and alert for extreme thunderstorms — and increase community resilience to them — is a massive undertaking. It is essentially a community endeavour that requires the efforts of academia, governments, industry, emergency managers and the public. The ultimate goals are to prevent casualties, and to keep people in their homes and keep schools and businesses open, following extreme thunderstorm events.

The Conversation

David Sills receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and ImpactWX.

Gregory Kopp receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, ImpactWX, the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety and the National Research Council.

ref. It’s challenging to predict extreme thunderstorms — improving this will help reduce their deadly and costly impacts – https://theconversation.com/its-challenging-to-predict-extreme-thunderstorms-improving-this-will-help-reduce-their-deadly-and-costly-impacts-261071

‘Stop Killing Games’: Demands for game ownership must also include workers’ rights

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Louis-Etienne Dubois, Associate Professor, School of Creative Industries, The Creative School, Toronto Metropolitan University

With live service games, players are learning that what they’ve really bought is not a game but access to it. And, evidently, that access is something that can be revoked. (Unsplash/Samsung Memory)

When French video-game publisher Ubisoft announced it was shutting down servers for The Crew, a popular online racing game released in 2014, it wasn’t just the end of a title. It marked the beginning of a broader reckoning about the nature of digital ownership, led by players angry at the company’s decision to deny them something they had paid for.

The Stop Killing Games (SKG) movement was born from that moment. As of July 2025, it has gathered more than 1.4 million signatures through the European Citizens’ Initiative. The European Commission is now obliged to respond.

At the heart of the issue is a deceptively simple question: when we buy a video game, what are we actually purchasing? For many gamers, the answer used to be obvious. A game was a product, something you owned, kept and could return to at will.

However, live service games have changed that dynamic. These are games usually played online with others and that typically require subscriptions or in-game payments to access features or content. They include popular titles such as Fortnite, League of Legends and World of Warcraft.

With live service games, players are learning that what they’ve really bought is something more tenuous: access.

And, evidently, access is something that can be revoked.

Erasing gaming communities

The issue goes well beyond The Crew. In the last couple of years alone, several games have been shut down, including Anthem, Concord, Knockout City, Overwatch 1, RedFall and Rumbleverse.

There are valid reasons why companies might choose to end support for a title. The game industry is saturated and brutally competitive. Margins are tight, player expectations are high and teams often face impossible deadlines. When an online game underperforms, a publisher will likely be inclined to cut their losses and shut it down.

Games tend to accumulate bugs in their code that are complex to clean and create player dissatisfaction. In our research, we have shown that when a game underperforms or becomes too costly to maintain, shutting it down can be a rational, even reparative, decision on many levels.

Yet, when companies decide to shut down a live service game’s servers, it’s not just content that vanishes. So do the communities built around it, the digital assets (costumes, weapons and so on) players have earned or paid for and the sometimes hundreds of hours invested in mastering it. In the blink of an eye, the game is gone, often without recourse or compensation.

That’s not just a customer service issue; it’s a cultural one.

Games are not just another type of software. They are creative works that can foster shared experiences and vibrant communities.

Players don’t just consume games, they inhabit them. They trade stories, build friendships and express themselves through digital spaces. Turning those spaces off can feel, to many, like erasing a part of their lives.

This profound disconnect between business logic and player experience, which we theorized in the past, is what gave rise to the SKG movement. Video game publishers failed to anticipate the cultural backlash triggered by these shutdowns.

What regulators can do

A row of EU flags on poles fly in front of a large office building
The European Commission’s response to the Stop Killing Games petition could help define the future of digital ownership, cultural preservation and ethical labour in gaming.
(Unsplash/Guillaume Périgois)

Players of shut-down games may believe they were misled and should be compensated. Unfortunately, the current system offers little transparency and even less protection for them.

That’s where regulation can help. The European Commission now has a chance to provide much-needed clarity on what consumers in the European Union are actually buying when they purchase live service games.

A good starting point would be requiring companies to disclose whether a purchase grants the buyer ownership or limited access, akin to recent legislation passed in California.

Minimum support periods, clearer content road maps (the projected updates) and making companies create mandatory offline versions for discontinued online games might also help prevent misunderstandings.

There’s room for creativity here, too. Rather than killing a game outright, companies could allow player communities to take over its maintenance and allow for the continued creation of new content, especially for titles with active fan bases.

This is known as “modding,” and in some cases, community-led revivals have even inspired publishers to re-release enhanced editions years later.

Developers need protections too

People in an office sit at desks working on computers
Instead of periodically ‘crunching,’ live service game developers are now constantly ‘grinding.’
(Unsplash/Sigmund)

There’s another part of this story that’s unfortunately overlooked: the people who make these games. Video game developers are regularly subjected to long hours, poor conditions and toxic workplace cultures in order to meet the demands of continuous live service updates.

In our research, we’ve found that this new model of endless content creation and perpetual support is unsustainable, not just financially or technologically, but humanly.

Instead of periodically “crunching,” live service game developers are now constantly “grinding.” Somehow, in an industry notoriously demanding for workers, this model has managed to make things even worse.




Read more:
The video game industry is booming. Why are there so many layoffs?


Policymakers need to protect both players and the workers creating games. That means, among other things, rethinking release schedules, enforcing rest periods for development teams and holding companies accountable for the well-being of their staff. The overall health of the industry depends on it.

Whether you support the SKG movement or not, the issues it raises are urgent. While the ownership question is a very legitimate one, video game developers deserve more care and protection.

The European Commission’s response could help define the future of digital ownership, cultural preservation and ethical labour in gaming.

The Conversation

Louis-Etienne Dubois received funding from SSHRC in 2019 to investigate the rise of live service games.

Miikka J. Lehtonen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘Stop Killing Games’: Demands for game ownership must also include workers’ rights – https://theconversation.com/stop-killing-games-demands-for-game-ownership-must-also-include-workers-rights-262774

Why Sydney Sweeney’s American Eagle campaign is part of a wider cultural backlash

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Meaghan Furlano, PhD Student, Sociology, Western University

Actress Sydney Sweeney is once again embroiled in controversy. This time the debate isn’t centred around Sweeney selling soaps infused with her bathwater or posting pictures of MAGA-inspired red caps. Instead, the Euphoria star is making rounds for her role in a contentious ad campaign with American Eagle Outfitters.

While the entire campaign sparked debate online, one particular ad has drawn especially intense criticism.

In it, Sweeney lounges artfully on a chaise while fastening a pair of American Eagle jeans. In a breathy voiceover, she says, “Genes are passed down from parents to offspring, often determining traits like hair colour, personality and even eye colour.”

As the camera slowly pans upward and she turns her eyes toward the viewer, Sweeney concludes, “My jeans are blue.”

Commentators and social media users have argued the campaign serves as a conservative dog whistle, conveying thinly veiled support for white supremacy and eugenics.

Sydney Sweeney in the most controversial American Eagle ad.

American Eagle released a statement defending the ad on August 1, writing “‘Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans’ is and always was about the jeans,” on Instagram.

Innocent marketing or intentional dog whistle?

Eugenics is a discredited ideology rooted in white supremacy and scientific racism. It promotes the false belief that racial groupings are biologically determined, and that some groups are genetically superior to others and should selectively reproduce to preserve their “good genes.”

Historically, the end goal of eugenics has been to eliminate so-called “bad genes” — often associated with non-white, disabled, poor or otherwise marginalized communities — so social elites can maintain their dominance.

Fashion advertising playing on eugenic themes has a long history. Commentators have gestured to similarities between the Sweeney ad and the infamous 1980s campaign for Calvin Klein featuring a then-15-year-old Brooke Shields, who rolls around in her Calvins while talking about genetic codes, evolution and survival of the fittest — language evocative of eugenic thinking.

The American Eagle campaign appears to be a direct homage to the Calvin campaign, but is rhetoric reminiscent of eugenics really something we want to reference in marketing?

The return of ‘traditional’ femininity

The American Eagle campaign is pointedly titled “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans,” with “jeans” sometimes swapped out for “genes.” It’s clearly meant to be tongue-in-cheek.

But this is not just a harmless ad. If the campaign didn’t reflect broader cultural tensions, neither U.S. President Donald Trump nor Sen. Ted Cruz would have commented on it.

“The crazy Left has come out against beautiful women,” Cruz wrote in a tweet about the controversy. A right-wing media outlet went further, claiming body positivity was bringing “the giggling blonde with an amazing rack … to the brink of extinction.”

With its celebration of Sweeney’s conventionally attractive appearance, American Eagle has reintroduced the “traditional” feminine figure loudly and proudly. In this sense, the campaign symbolizes a changing of the cultural tides: out with body positivity, in with the “amazing rack” and all it signifies.

In our present cultural moment saturated with conservative messaging, Sweeney — a young, thin, white and sexualized Hollywood star — is hardly a surprising figure to hear extolling the quality of her “genes” (sorry, jeans).




Read more:
Trad wives hearken back to an imagined past of white Christian womanhood


From the rise of tradwife influencers and SkinnyTokers to the ritualized feminine performance of “morning shedders,” the campaign lands squarely within a broader revival of regressive feminine ideals wrapped in aspirational, white-washed beauty.

Exorcising self-love from the corporate agenda

As a feminist media scholar interested in the intersection of pop culture and the far right, my ongoing research explores the rise of anti-feminism and right-wing politics. We are no longer in the age of popular feminism, when corporations eagerly appropriated feminist rhetoric to sell their products and services.

In its place, brands are reverting to traditional imagery: thin, white women styled for the male gaze — a term referring to the objectification and sexualization of women in popular media, from film and television to fashion ads. It’s a strategy that has long worked for them, and it’s one they’re glad is back in vogue.

The aesthetic regression encapsulated in the Sweeney American Eagle campaign reveals what many critics suspected all along: the corporate embrace of feminism was never sincere.




Read more:
How neoliberalism colonised feminism – and what you can do about it


Campaigns touting “love your body,” “empowerment,” and “confidence” in the late 2010s and early 2020s were intentionally designed to court progressive consumers and profit from the popularity of feminism. The core business model of these corporations — sell insecurities and reap profits for shareholders — had not fundamentally changed.

If anything, as other scholars argue, self-love marketing encouraged women to not only upgrade their bodies but also their minds. It was no longer culturally acceptable that women look good; they had to also feel good about their bodies. That standard required more work and, of course, products, which brands happily supplied.

Spurred on by an increasingly conservative political climate, many brands are no longer shy about expressing their motives. Thin is back in and whiteness is re-associated with rightness.

Living through the cultural backlash

As I have argued elsewhere, we are currently living in backlash times. In her 1991 book, journalist Susan Faludi wrote that backlash is “a recurring phenomenon” that “returns every time women begin to make some headway toward equality.”

Although many news articles are describing a consumer “backlash” to the Sweeney American Eagle campaign, I’m referring to something different: the rise of a cultural backlash against progressive social movements and politics. This backlash is currently taking shape across political, legal and economic domains, and it goes beyond a single ad.

Today’s current backlash is a reaction to popular feminism, Black Lives Matter, DEI and incisive systemic analyses found in feminist, anti-racist and queer scholarship and activism. The Sweeney campaign is just one expression of this larger pattern.

Faludi shrewdly observed that “images of the restrained women line the walls of the popular culture’s gallery” during periods of backlash. That insight feels newly relevant.

Just days after American Eagle dropped its campaign, Kim Kardashian’s company SKIMS released their “sculpt face wraps” — a product designed to give users a more “sculpted” jawline. On the SKIMS website, product images show women ensnared in products that resemble Hannibal Lecter’s famous mask or a surgical brace. They are disconcerting, to say the least.

If Faludi has taught us anything, it’s that a trend of images showing women restrained — physically or to rigidly defined roles — are not only harbingers of a menacing future, but are indicative of a chilling present that we must recognize to resist.

The Conversation

Meaghan Furlano does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why Sydney Sweeney’s American Eagle campaign is part of a wider cultural backlash – https://theconversation.com/why-sydney-sweeneys-american-eagle-campaign-is-part-of-a-wider-cultural-backlash-262417

The world’s longest marine heat wave upended ocean life across the Pacific

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Samuel Starko, Forrest Research Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia

View of the Pacific Ocean from Botanical Beach on Vancouver Island, B.C., in August 2020. (Unsplash/Amanda Batchelor)

More than a decade since the start of the longest ocean warming event ever recorded, scientists are still working to understand the extent of its impacts. This unprecedented heat wave, nicknamed “The Blob,” stretched thousands of kilometres over North America’s western coastal waters, affecting everything from the smallest plankton to the largest marine mammals.

Between 2014 and 2016, when this heat wave occurred, water temperatures soared between two to six degrees C above average.

One would be forgiven for thinking this is no big deal. After all, temperatures fluctuate more than this on land most days. But not so in the ocean, where temperatures are normally much more stable because of the enormous amount of energy it takes to change them.

Although the duration of this multi-year warming event made it the first of its kind, it offers a glimpse into a future with climate change, where heat waves like this will be more frequent.

In our newly published systematic review, we synthesized the findings from 331 scientific studies documenting the ecological impacts of this marine heat wave across ecosystems, all the way from Alaska to Baja California.

Our results offer a stark warning for how profoundly ocean life can be upended by heat waves that are now a dominant signature of climate change.

six maps of the west coast of north america showing the intensity of the ocean heat wave using colours from yellow to red. The heat-wave areas grow larger before dissipating in the last map
Maps demonstrating the formation and progression of the 2014-16 marine heat wave. The colours indicates marine heat wave intensity, which measures how many degrees the water is above average conditions at any point in time.
(Jennifer McHenry)

Species on the move

One of the most common responses to this extreme event was that marine species moved into places where they are not normally found as they searched for cooler water. Most headed north.

In total, we identified 240 species that were found outside of their normal ranges. More than 100 of these were found further north than they had ever been recorded before, with some moving up to 1,000 kilometres.

These species on the move included everything from fish and invertebrates to seabirds and marine mammals. But species don’t all have the same discomfort level with warm water, and some species are more mobile than others. So, marine communities didn’t simply pick up and move together to avoid the heat.

Instead, marine heat waves like this one are causing a massive reorganization of ocean life, as new predators, prey and competitors intermingle for the first time. The newcomers have the potential to alter food webs and displace local species with far-reaching consequences.

crabs seen washed up on a beach
Pelagic red crabs washed up on a California beach in June 2015.
(Dirk Dallas), CC BY-NC

Heatwave effects on linked species and fisheries

One of the key lessons from this heat wave is that impacts on one species can have effects that ripple throughout entire ecosystems. For example, the shifting availability of key forage fish like anchovies and sardines contributed to mass die-offs of starving seabirds and whales.

Warm, nutrient-poor waters also triggered unprecedented blooms of toxic algae. This led to the closure of Dungeness crab fisheries on the West Coast that cost local economies tens of millions of dollars.

Widespread ecological disruption

The marine heat wave also transformed coastal habitats, including kelp forests and seagrass beds. Kelp forests, sometimes called rainforests of the sea, were impacted along several thousand kilometres of coastline.

In some cases, local extinctions of these habitats have persisted for years following the event, with sustained impacts on the critters that rely on them. We still don’t know whether these changes represent permanent losses or whether any of these ecosystems will be able to recover.

two images of the same beach area, one with kelp in the water, one without
Aerial imagery showing the disappearance of a kelp forest on Vancouver Island, B.C., following the 2014-16 marine heat wave.
(Shorezone/Samuel Starko)



Read more:
Why some of British Columbia’s kelp forests are in more danger than others


Diseases flourished in the warmer waters. The previously abundant sunflower sea star was hit particularly hard. Warmer waters likely increased the susceptibility of this species to an ongoing epidemic. This led to losses severe enough to have it listed as a critically endangered species.

Similarly, increases in seagrass disease contributed to declines in the health and abundance of the habitats these plants create.

the body of a large starfish on a rock underwater with some of its arms detached.
A sunflower sea star showing signs of sea star wasting disease, which is likely made more prevalent by warmer water.
(NOAA Fisheries West Coast/Janna Nicols), CC BY-NC-ND

Preparing for warmer water

Our review highlights how we are unprepared to respond to these challenges in real time.

With marine heat waves becoming more prevalent, we need to prepare for what is coming. Climate models indicate that these events will only get stronger as greenhouse gas emissions continue to warm our planet.

Global ocean temperatures have continued to rise over the decade since The Blob, with several years since being declared the hottest on record in the ocean, only to be surpassed the following year.

Actions such as restoring lost habitat or reducing additional stressors, like overfishing, may help ecosystems cope with some of these shocks. However, these benefits may be limited and offer only a temporary solution to a problem that is worsening.

Our review demonstrates how unpredictably these heat waves can unfold across marine ecosystems and how widespread their impacts can be. In the face of such drastic change, climate adaptation measures will only get us so far.

To stave off the worst impacts of heat waves driven by climate change, governments and industry must urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The 2014-16 marine heat wave was a warning. The question now is whether we will listen.

The Conversation

Samuel Starko receives funding from the Forrest Research Foundation, the Australian Research Council and Revive & Restore. During this research project, he also received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and Mitacs.

Julia K. Baum receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and Fisheries and Oceans Canada. A Professor at the University of Victoria, she is affiliated with the Bamfield Marine Sciences Centre’s Kelp Rescue Initiative.

ref. The world’s longest marine heat wave upended ocean life across the Pacific – https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-longest-marine-heat-wave-upended-ocean-life-across-the-pacific-260792

Why bolstering post-secondary education for former youth in care is a wise investment

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jacquie Gahagan, Full Professor and Associate Vice-President, Research, Mount Saint Vincent University

Providing access to post-secondary education costs an average of $85,000 to $100,000 over four years, while incarcerating a single youth can cost $300,000 to $500,000 per year.
(Joshua Hoehne/Unsplash)

As we move closer to the start of the fall term, returning to school is often a source of conversation and excitement.

Thinking about post-secondary education, and discussing what attending a new institution will be like or what program one will major in, is related to building a future that often hinges on educational attainment and income.

However, what is often missing from back-to-school conversations is the reality that approximately 50 per cent of youth who have experienced living in care in Canada do not complete high school, and even fewer attend post-secondary institutions.

The implications of a lower level of educational attainment can include a higher likelihood of poverty — including homelessness, food insecurity, worse health outcomes and fewer employment opportunities — and an increased interaction with criminal justice systems.

Barriers for youth aging out of care

In Canada, youth who age out of the child welfare system are among the most vulnerable members of society and require specialized, integrated government system planning.

Despite their resilience, many of these young people face overwhelming barriers and systemic discrimination. Without sustained support, many fall through the cracks. This is not a reflection of individual failure, but of a system that criminalizes vulnerability instead of fostering opportunity.

To address the needs of this population, Canada must shift from punitive responses toward meaningful investments in education and equity-focused policy change and supports for youth from care, prioritizing learning from those with lived experience.

Supports must be of a “wraparound” nature — meaning they are uniquely tailored and intensive, designed for people with complex needs and taking an approach that draws on and affirms young people’s identities, cultural contexts and strengths.

Systemic neglect has consequences

Research shows youth with care experience are drastically over-represented in Canada’s justice system and are 20 times more likely to be involved with it compared to their peers.

This is not coincidental — it is the result of systemic neglect, the school-to-prison pipeline and the absence of support at critical transition points.

When youth age out of care, often as young as 18, they are expected to navigate adulthood with no family network, limited life skills and inadequate financial supports. The result is a predictable cycle of poverty, homelessness and criminalization.

The cost of this approach is staggering. Incarcerating a single youth can cost $300,000 to $500,000 per year, with total public expenditures exceeding $1 million per youth over the course of a justice-involved life.

Seeking better outcomes

These resources are spent on reacting to crisis, not preventing it. In contrast, providing access to post-secondary education — including tuition waivers, housing supports and mentoring — costs an average of $85,000 to $100,000 over four years.
The difference is not just financial. Youth who access education are far more likely to achieve stable employment, experience better health outcomes and contribute positively to their communities.




Read more:
High school dropouts cost countries a staggering amount of money


Education is not a luxury, it is a fundamental right and a powerful tool for interrupting intergenerational cycles of trauma. Yet fewer than 10 per cent of former youth in care in Canada complete a post-secondary credential.

This low rate is not due to lack of ability or ambition, but rather reflects the lack of targeted, consistent supports. Provinces that have implemented tuition waiver programs are beginning to see the transformative potential of this approach. Despite this, access remains uneven and supports are still insufficient.

Just and fiscally responsible approach

The criminalization of youth from care is a policy failure and reflects a societal willingness to spend more on punishment than prevention. Canada, like many other OECD countries, has a practical incentive to reverse this trend. Making early and data-driven investments in education, mental health services and housing for youth aging out of care is not only more humane, it is also a fiscally responsible and socially just approach.

By shifting public investment from incarceration to education, Canada can reimagine the future for thousands of young people. These youth deserve the same chances we would want for any child: a fair start, a quality education and the opportunity to thrive. It is time to stop criminalizing care-experienced youth and start investing in their potential.




Read more:
Health of former youth in care could be bolstered by stronger tuition waiver programs


Strong economic returns

Investment in education, housing and mental health for youth leaving care has been shown to reduce justice involvement and lead to strong economic returns. A review by Ontario’s Advocate for Children and Youth found that extending support for youth aging out of care leads to long-term economic and social benefits.

In Ontario, every dollar invested in extended care from ages 21 to 25 could yield $1.36 million in savings or earnings over a lifetime through improved educational attainment, reduced reliance on social benefits, lower rates of criminal justice involvement and increased contributions through taxes.

Similarly, a more recent Québec study estimated that raising the age of care from 18 to 21 would cost $146 million but generate up to $254 million in benefits.

Investing in education for youth from care is a cost-effective, humane and socially responsible alternative to allowing justice involvement to become their default path.

How we can all benefit

The current punitive system invests heavily in the costliest outcomes — justice involvement — while underfunding pathways that foster resilience, success and societal connection and contribution.

A national commitment to educational equity for youth from care is a sound fiscal strategy and a transformational approach to ensure all youth in Canada can benefit from post-secondary education.

As a society, we all benefit from this approach.

Susan McWilliam, PhD, Outcomes & Evaluation Consultant, Mental Health & Addictions, IWK Health Centre, Halifax, co-authored this story.

The Conversation

Jacquie Gahagan receives funding from CIHR, SSHRC, RNS.

Dale Kirby receives funding from SSHRC.

El Jones receives funding from North Pine Foundation.

Kristyn Anderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why bolstering post-secondary education for former youth in care is a wise investment – https://theconversation.com/why-bolstering-post-secondary-education-for-former-youth-in-care-is-a-wise-investment-261926

How language classes for immigrant students can perpetuate inequity

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Roberta Soares, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Education, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

Different countries and regions use various models for integrating immigrant students who need to learn or improve the language of schooling.

In Québec, one model for young people is the classe d’accueil, which could be translated in English as welcoming class or reception class.

It is part of the linguistic, school and social integration program of the Ministry of Education of Québec. According to provincial documents, the welcoming class is for those “in need of support” to improve their language skills.

It can be used from preschool to high school in the province, but it is notably used in secondary schools and in regions where the number of students learning the language of schooling is high, such as Montréal.

Students who do not speak French well enough to be placed in the mainstream class are placed in the welcoming class for French learning. Students in high school study mainly French, but also math, arts and physical education. This happens separately from students attending the mainstream class.

Interviews with students, school workers

My doctoral research focused on the placement procedures of newly arrived immigrant high school students before and after their stay in the welcoming class in Montréal.

I collected and analysed different types of data: documents, school observations and interviews with 37 school workers and seven students to learn about their experiences and views on the subject.

My research suggests that, even though the welcoming class is considered a “transition” to the mainstream class, the reality is more complicated.

In fact, some students may never get to the mainstream class. My research results reveal long stays in the welcoming class, immigrant students being placed below the age level of the students in the mainstream class and placements in general adult education and special education.

Challenges for immigrant students

Some students may stay years in the welcoming class if they are not considered ready to be placed in the mainstream class.

For some older teenagers who arrive without language skills of the host society, there are great chances that they can, after secondary school, be sent to adult education. They can end up studying with adults much older than them, which can influence their motivation.

Placement in special education means that they can be considered as having learning disabilities or directed towards technical programs that prepare them directly for the labour market.

A ‘deficit’ approach to seeing students

According to school workers I interviewed in my study, only some of the students meet the requirements of the host environment in terms of performance and behaviour and can therefore achieve educational success.

The students who fail to adapt can be seen as having individual or cultural “deficits” – for example, learning difficulties or academic delays. Some school workers highlighted structural issues of the host environment. They notably mentioned viewing school systems as under-resourced to meet immigrant students needs.




Read more:
Language learning in Canada needs to change to reflect ‘superdiverse’ communities


My research suggests what is meant to be a temporary support becomes a sorting mechanism to stream immigrants into an educational track that can lead to limits on higher education and lower-paying employment.

Thus, there is a need to critically look at how the decisions are made to place and keep students in the welcoming class and who they serve.

Families not sufficiently informed

According to students in my study, they (and their parents) are not sufficiently informed about the education system in their host province.

Consequently, they tend to accept placement decisions – in the welcoming class, general adult education and special education – without fully understanding the implications.

Other research has also shown how immigrant parents might not be familiar with the local education system and thus might not question recommendations by school workers.

In fact, since their focus is on their children’s safety and learning, they tend to trust the educational system and its professionals to guide them.

Placement decisions shape futures

Long stays in the welcoming class, as well as special education and adult education placements, can have profound consequences in the lives of immigrant students, especially those who are racialized, come from low-income backgrounds or have experienced interrupted schooling.

Based on the accounts of students in my study, being placed in the welcoming class, special education or adult education can deepen dynamics of othering. As other researchers have noted, “specialized” or “separate” forms of education often add to how students are viewed through a lens of difference, especially racialized, linguistic and cultural difference.

The discourse of integration can mask processes of categorizing and managing students based on conformity to dominant norms.

However, this is not to suggest that people in school systems who facilitate placements to the welcoming class, special education or adult education lack good intentions for immigrant students.




Read more:
Navigating special education labels is complex, and it matters for education equity


Many school workers seem to be doing their best under difficult conditions. It is a systemic issue, rooted in the structure of the school system. Nevertheless, if the system itself reproduces inequalities, acknowledging good intentions is not enough.

Thus, to create equitable education for all students, it is essential to:

1) ensure immigrant families have clear and accessible information about their rights and options by providing adequate support such as translation services, and by ensuring full student and parent participation in decision-making.

2) offer training and support to educators that encourages asset-based, instead of deficit-based, thinking, to legitimize and embrace different ways of learning).

3) consider inclusive models inside the mainstream classroom by providing sufficient school resources to facilitate a broader range of placement options.

In these ways, by moving to more flexible, equitable and student-centred approaches, our school systems can practise different ways of supporting student academic success.

The Conversation

The research carried out during the doctoral program received financial support from the Fonds de recherche du Québec – Société et Culture (FRQSC) and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

ref. How language classes for immigrant students can perpetuate inequity – https://theconversation.com/how-language-classes-for-immigrant-students-can-perpetuate-inequity-259867

Back-to-school transitions can trigger stress and anxiety — these 5 books can help

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Joanna Pozzulo, Chancellor’s Professor, Psychology, Carleton University

Managing emotions in a healthy way matters for our well-being. (Unsplash/Taylor Flowe)

As the end of summer approaches, many will find themselves preparing to usher in a new school year.

This transition period can be difficult, leading to a significant increase in stress and anxiety.

Bibliotherapy — the use of books and literature to support mental health and well-being — may be helpful.

The term bibliotherapy was coined in 1916, but the notion of using books or reading to support health and well-being was around well before then.

In recent years, bibliotherapy has been experiencing a resurgence to support mental health in clinical and non-clinical settings.

Mental health practitioners and scholars who study literature or books, as well as the intersection of medicine and human experiences of illness and wellness, are taking an interest in bibliotherapy in varied ways.




Read more:
‘Iyashikei’ healing manga comforts readers with attention to small joys


As a professor of psychology and Director of the Mental Health and Well-Being Research and Training Hub at Carleton University, I have created the Reading for Well-being Community Book Club. Through this hub, I select evidence-based books on various dimensions of well-being and self-improvement.

Each month, members receive a newsletter with my selection and review, along with a link to an electronic discussion board to comment on the books. All are welcome to join and there are no fees.

a teen girl sitting against a book shelf in a library reading a book
Reading has been associated with improved personal well-being, since it can decrease stress and promote a sense of calmness.
(Unsplash/Eliott Reyna)

Bibliotherapy, practised as prescribed reading by a mental health professional, can help with anxiety and depression with positive effects being sustained over a longer period.

If you seek to be proactive with maintaining your mental health, or are mildly concerned about how well you are doing (the mental health continuum model of “green, amber and red” zones might help you consider this), self-help books are among the resources that can provide a supportive option until you have access to a professional, or in conjunction to working with a trained professional.

When choosing books for this purpose, choose evidence-based books.

Here are five books offering strategies on how to ease the stress and anxiety associated with back-to-school transitions.

Shift: Managing Your Emotions — So They Don’t Manage you by Ethan Kross

a white book cover with the word shift and smiling and sad emojis
‘Shift’ by Ethan Kross.
(Penguin Random House)

Kross, a professor and leading expert on emotion regulation, explores the science of emotion and provides several evidence-based strategies to help you manage it in a healthy way.

One of the most powerful statements in the book is the very last one Kross makes: “We have the power to shift our lives,” which illustrates our capacity to improve well-being.

This book is a must-read for anyone interested in emotion regulation.


Good Anxiety: Harnessing the Power of the Most Misunderstood Emotion by Wendy Suzuki with Billie Fitzpatrick

Neuroscience professor Suzuki takes you on a science-filled journey of how anxiety works in our brains and how you can change those pathways for a more positive experience.

Three themes that emerge centre around making time for meditation, exercise and sleep. These elements may help you move from bad to good anxiety.

The notion of good anxiety is about coping and changing our perceptions and reactions to anxiety so that it becomes a strength and motivator; “our superpower,” as Suzuki notes.

Suzuki provides numerous guided strategies to help make the shift to good anxiety.

The Resilient Teen: 10 Key Skills to Bounce Back from Setbacks & Turn Stress Into Success by Sheela Raja

a book cover for resilient teens with hands holding onto wrists forming a circle
‘The Resilient Teen’ by Sheela Raja.
(New Harbinger Publications)

Raja, a clinical psychologist and professor, provides evidence-based strategies to help teens build their resilience, which is the ability to maintain well-being when stressors arise.

Using the strategies described can help readers develop resiliency.

This is a book for teens, and those who interact with teens, who want techniques to help deal with stress and anxiety.


Breathing is My Superpower: Mindfulness Book for Kids to Feel Calm and Peaceful by Alicia Ortego

This book features the character Sophia, who describes several child-friendly breathing techniques to help regulate emotions.

Some basic yoga techniques also are described to help ease anxiety. The techniques in the book can be practised by a child alone or with an adult.


Ruby Finds a Worry by Tom Percival

‘Ruby Finds a Worry’ by Tom Percival.
(Bloomsbury Publishing)

This is a child-friendly picture book on how worry can grow and become more difficult to manage if ignored.

By helping another child who experiences worry, the character Ruby learns that talking about worry can help manage it.

This book can be used as an entry point to talk to children about their emotions.


Reading for Well-Being podcast

Podcasts provide several benefits for health and well-being. Listeners can gain access to leading experts around the world and content may be presented in a way that helps people gain a deeper understanding of the subject matter.

I created the Reading for Well-Being podcast to facilitate my book club’s knowledge mobilization (providing research findings in a manner that can be used by the general public).

I interview the authors of my selected book club picks to help listeners better understand the science and strategies for improved well-being. Book club members can submit questions to the authors in advance of an episode’s recording.

Reading books about wellness or self-help can be a useful tool in coping with stress and anxiety associated with going back to school. But, remember, choose books that are written by professionals with advanced training from reputable institutions. For severe anxiety, seek help from a doctor or trained mental health professional.

The Conversation

Joanna Pozzulo receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council.

ref. Back-to-school transitions can trigger stress and anxiety — these 5 books can help – https://theconversation.com/back-to-school-transitions-can-trigger-stress-and-anxiety-these-5-books-can-help-261042

An excellent source of protein: Health, hype and hard truths

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James McKendry, Assistant Professor in Nutrition and Healthy Aging, University of British Columbia

Protein is having its moment: From grocery store shelves to Instagram feeds, high-protein foods are everywhere. Food labels shout their protein content in bold, oversized fonts, while social media overflows with recipes promising to pack more protein into your favourite dishes.

And according to the International Food Information Council’s Food and Health Survey, “high protein” topped the list of popular eating patterns in 2024. But does the hype match the science?

Yes and no.

Protein is essential to good health and boosting protein intake can support healthy aging and fitness goals, but the rush to pile on grams — often driven by marketing more than medical need — raises questions. How much do you really need? Can you overdo it? What’s the best source of protein?

This article breaks down the facts, debunks common myths and answers the most pressing questions about protein today.

What is dietary protein and why do we need it?

Protein is one of the three essential macronutrients your body needs in large amounts, alongside carbohydrates and fats. While carbs and fats are primarily used for energy, protein plays a more structural and functional role. It helps build and repair tissues, supports immune health and produces enzymes, hormones and other vital molecules.

Proteins are made of amino acids. Your body can make some amino acids, but nine must come from food. These are called essential amino acids. That’s why protein is a daily dietary requirement, not just a delicious post-workout bonus.

Unlike fat and carbohydrates, which the body can store for later use, protein doesn’t have a dedicated storage system. That means you need to replenish it regularly. In extreme situations — like prolonged fasting or severe illness — your body will break down its own muscle to release amino acids for energy and repair. It’s a last-resort mechanism that underscores just how essential protein is for survival.

How much protein do people need?

The amount of protein an individual needs to consume each day may vary based on age, physical activity levels and the presence of health conditions. However, the recommended dietary allowance (RDA) for daily protein intake is the same for almost everyone: 0.8 grams of protein per kilogram of body weight per day (g/kg/d).

For example, a woman weighing 65 kilograms should aim to consume approximately 52 grams of protein daily.

An important caveat is that the RDA is set to prevent protein deficiency, not to promote optimal health. Older adults who have a reduced ability to utilize the nutrients they consume, athletes whose bodies need more substrate for tissue growth and repair, and pregnant or breastfeeding individuals whose protein intake is shared with another being, often need more protein. Sometimes as much as 1.2 to 2 grams per kilogram of body weight. Therefore, an older person of the same body mass (65 kilograms) might need between 78 g and 130 g of protein daily, far exceeding the RDA.

Is there such a thing as too much protein?

While several expert groups agree that consuming more protein can be beneficial in certain situations — particularly for older adults — there is probably little to no advantage in consuming protein amounts exceeding two grams per kilogram per day.

The good news is that if you are generally healthy, increasing your protein intake will not shorten your lifespan, cause your kidneys to fail, give you cancer or lead to bone loss.

When should I consume my protein?

A prominent social media influencer recently claimed that post-menopausal women must consume protein within a very short window (~45 minutes) after exercise, or any benefits from exercise will quickly dissipate and they will lose all their muscle. This is absolutely not the case.

The idea of an “anabolic window” — a brief period after exercise when recovering muscles make the best use of protein — has long been debunked. Perhaps more accurately described as a garage door rather than an anabolic window, there is a generous period of at least 24 hours to consume protein after exercise.

This means your muscles remain sensitive to the muscle-building effects of protein for a long time after exercise. So, focusing your efforts on consuming enough protein each day is much more important than stressing about guzzling your protein shake in the changing room immediately following your workout.

As long as you’re eating enough protein each day, feel free to consume it on a schedule that fits your daily routine.

But if increasing the amount of protein that you eat at each meal helps you feel fuller and curb your appetite, you may be a little less likely to overeat or indulge in sweet treats.

And with the increasing off-label use of Type 2 diabetes medications such as GLP-1 agonists, which significantly reduce appetite, putting protein on your plate first might — and it’s a considerable might — help slow muscle loss that accompanies this drastic weight loss. However, this is rather speculative, and resistance exercise will probably be your best option for slowing muscle loss while on these medications.




Read more:
Preserving muscle with GLP-1 weight loss drugs: Big deal or nothing to worry about?


Are all proteins created equal?

Protein is found in a wide variety of foods, from animal sources such as meat, fish, eggs and dairy to plant-based options like legumes, soy products, whole grains, nuts, seeds and even some vegetables. Protein is also widely available as a nutritional supplement, with whey, casein and collagen being among some of the most popular options.

Animal-based proteins are often touted by many online as superior, especially when it comes to supporting muscle growth, but the reality of protein quality is more nuanced.

Animal proteins often contain more of the essential amino acids and are more bioavailable, meaning they are easier for the body to absorb and use. However, a well-planned plant-based diet can also supply all the essential amino acids the body needs — it just takes a bit more variety and intention.

If that wasn’t enough, and you find yourself trying to wrap your head around food labelling, you’re not the only one. When it comes to high-protein products seen all over the grocery store, meat, dairy, shakes and bars are no longer the only options. Now, consumers are bombarded with high-protein popcorn, chips and even candy. Most of these, like diets promoted by influencers, are unnecessary “health halo” gimmicks.

My advice would be to follow a varied, whole-food, protein-forward diet — much like the dietary guidelines. And whatever your preferred protein source — animal- or plant-based — fill about a quarter of your plate or bowl at breakfast, lunch and dinner.

This approach will greatly support your overall health, especially when combined with a diverse diet rich in fruits, vegetables and whole grains, along with regular physical activity.




Read more:
Nutrition and healthy aging: The role of protein quality in combatting muscle loss


The bottom line is that protein is an essential nutrient, and consuming enough of it daily is crucial for maintaining good health. But meeting your body’s protein needs doesn’t need to be complicated.

The Conversation

James McKendry receives funding from The University of British Columbia and The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada

ref. An excellent source of protein: Health, hype and hard truths – https://theconversation.com/an-excellent-source-of-protein-health-hype-and-hard-truths-259984

Should back-to-school require parent fundraising? Ontario schools are woefully underfunded, and families pay the price

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Lana Parker, Associate Professor, Faculty of Education, University of Windsor

Back-to-school is around the corner, which means that many parents will soon receive requests from schools to pay fees, contribute supplies or support fundraising activities.

But many families are already shouldering significant financial concerns. This raises the question why Ontario schools have become so reliant on direct fundraising contributions from parents.

Though the Ontario government insists it has never spent more money on education, a closer look at the facts and figures reveals that the budget allocated to education is woefully short of covering necessities.

My research, “Infinite Demands, Finite Resources: A Window into the Effects of Ongoing Underfunding and Trends of Privatization in Ontario Schools,” draws on discussions with educators to share insiders’ perspectives on how underfunding looks and feels in schools.

Increased demands, shortfalls

The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) released a 2022 report showing that, even amid the increased complexity of teaching during the pandemic, the Ontario government increased class sizes, cut funding and teaching staff and continued to permit the backlog for school infrastructure repair to balloon to nearly $17 billion.

Using the current government’s budget projections, Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office has forecast the education system will see a $12.3 billion shortfall over the next decade.

While some people might ask whether these cuts are a marker of prudent financial stewardship, the numbers once again reveal a different story.

The CCPA report showed that while Ontario had robust GDP growth of nine per cent in 2021 and 6.6 per cent in 2022, Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office found that, in 2017, “overall program spending in Ontario averaged roughly $2,000 per person, per year less than the average of the other provinces.”

In other words, the province has adequate funding, but is choosing to under-serve certain portfolios. For example, Ontario announced in its latest budget it will invest $28 billion on highways over 10 years.

Public investment with future returns

The choice to underfund education is shortsighted because research shows education is a public investment that can generate a high level of future returns.

This under-investment in education has real consequences for the day-to-day quality of schools. Parents who have children with special education needs have long been raising the alarm that their children lack access to adequate testing and supports, which is a direct function of insufficient funding.

Ontario’s principals, teachers and other educators issued an urgent statement in February 2025 advising the public of chronic underfunding and subsequent system challenges that “threaten the very foundation of the education our children and young people deserve.”

How boards are managing shortfalls

My recent research shines a light on the need for more sustainable funding.

The 11 highly experienced educators and one education organizer in my study described how school boards are trying to manage budget shortfalls by asking schools to increase fundraising and by asking school principals to look for private sector contributions.

They discuss how fees are becoming commonplace for extracurricular activities, which places a burden on families.

They decry the loss of materials for school libraries, arts programs and performance spaces. And they warn that the system cannot take many more years of disinvestment.

Full scope may not be clear to parents

Because educators are employed by public school boards and are responsible to the Ministry of Education, they might not be empowered to express their concerns to parents directly. Even parents who participate in school council meetings or fundraising efforts may not understand how much of an issue education underfunding is in their child’s school.

However, with their decades of experience, the educators in my study are unambiguous about the current situation.

One educator shared, “The students who suffer the most are the ones who are in our ESL programs and who are in our special education programs.”

Another noted, “With the formulas that would have been used pre-pandemic, I would have had four and a half, maybe five special education resource teachers and last year I had fewer than two.”

Yet another revealed, “There’s hundreds of kids in our neighbourhood who have never had a music teacher.” Another spoke about playgrounds, noting their board was being encouraged to seek private donations:

“That was part of the message we got the other day: ‘Look over to this school. The
[foundation name] came and built their playground. Maybe y’all should try that.’ We’re being told that we should be seeking out these donations. That’s highly problematic.”




Read more:
Music also matters in the real world


These are losses of public education goods and services that not that long ago would have been available to all children.

As one of the participants noted:

“There are a number of opportunities that used to exist that no longer exist, and then parents get upset because they think, ‘Well, when I was in school, all of this was around. What happened?’ … Really, it’s about the underfunding.”

Province appointing supervisors

Recently, the Ontario government appointed supervisors to some boards, announcing that “investigations showed they each had accumulated deficits.”

In so doing, the government is asserting more control over public education and runs the risk of political partisanship (one of the appointed supervisors is a former Progressive Conservative MPP).

Journalist Wendy Leung with The Local, who has covered the significance of these appointments, reports the move also “hampers public scrutiny over what’s happening at the boards.”

Taking over boards can be seen as a distraction tactic as the government is asking them to meet growing needs with fewer resources.

Instead of increasing funding, which is necessary and long overdue, the government is likely to cut costs in the short term by privatizing services, a trajectory researchers have documented for some time. These shifts to the private sector are shortsighted attempts to balance a budget that only serve to raise the taxpayer burden over time.

People in Ontario — and across Canada — should be proud of our public education systems. They are held in high regard globally. But education requires ongoing financial investment in our children’s futures.

It took robust political will to compel governments to offer free public education to all children.

This history suggests it will take ongoing pressure from parents applied directly to the Ministry of Education, or via engagement with school councils and school boards, to demonstrate their desire for fair and sustainable public schooling and ensure governments do not shortchange education.

In this way, support for children today will be improved, and the proud inheritance of public education will be strengthened and viable for generations to come.

The Conversation

Lana Parker receives funding from the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. She is affiliated with the Public Education Exchange.

ref. Should back-to-school require parent fundraising? Ontario schools are woefully underfunded, and families pay the price – https://theconversation.com/should-back-to-school-require-parent-fundraising-ontario-schools-are-woefully-underfunded-and-families-pay-the-price-261036

Vaccine hesitancy: How social and technological issues converged to spawn mistrust

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Emanuele Blasioli, PhD Candidate in Management Science, DeGroote School of Business, McMaster University

The rise in vaccine-preventable diseases around the world is threatening decades of progress in public health and putting millions of people at risk.

The decline in vaccination coverage in the United States illustrates the global problem. Rates of most routine vaccinations recommended for children by age 24 months by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which focus on 15 potentially serious illnesses, have declined.

Canada has not been spared from this phenomenon. As of July 19, there have been 4,206 measles cases (3,878 confirmed, 328 probable) in 2025 reported by 10 jurisdictions (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Northwest Territories, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Québec and Saskatchewan).

This decline in vaccine coverage is often attributed to misinformation and disinformation. As data analytics researchers, we used operations research techniques to understand why people are vaccine-hesitant. In our study, we explore how anti-vaccination sentiments and attitudes can be better understood through an integrated approach that combines social network analysis with insights into psychological reactance and the influence of eHealth literacy on health-related behaviours.

So what fuels skepticism about vaccines? It’s a complex blend of personal, social and environmental factors.

How our brains decide (and often get it wrong)

People typically use mental shortcuts, known as heuristics, to simplify complex issues.

The purpose is to minimize analytical efforts and speed up decision-making, which can sacrifice accuracy for the sake of efficiency. This results in distortions known as cognitive biases, which influence judgment and decision-making.

Vaccination decisions are influenced by these processes in the same way as any other decision.




Read more:
How cognitive biases and adverse events influence vaccine decisions (maybe even your own)


Skepticism toward vaccines has often been associated with fears related to possible side-effects. These fears are fuelled by our broad tendency to overestimate negative consequences, a mechanism known as risk-perception bias.

A recent study published in Nature Scientific Reports confirmed that vaccine-hesitant individuals are more sensitive to risk, and give undue weight to potential side-effects.

Another study, from the journal Vaccine: X, looked at cognitive biases related to vaccine hesitancy and revealed four factors significantly associated with hesitancy. These are:

  • fear of vaccine side-effects (skepticism factor),
  • carelessness about the risks of not being vaccinated (denial factor),
  • optimistic attitude, believing they are less at risk of illness (optimistic bias factor) and
  • preference for natural products (naturalness bias factor).

Existing beliefs can also significantly interfere with evaluations and decisions, since people are inclined to seek information that reinforces and confirms their convictions. Confirmation bias interferes with the rational evaluation of evidence related to vaccine safety and efficacy.

The effect of this bias becomes particularly relevant when analyzing how susceptible individuals are to misinformation — a major barrier to vaccine uptake.

The myth of rationality

Assuming human beings can make fully rational decisions is helpful for developing simulations and models, like those in game theory. Game theory is a powerful analytical tool often used in operations research to understand phenomena arising from the interaction of multiple decision-makers, allowing us to predict the possible scenarios that may unfold.

Insights from behavioural economics and cognitive psychology suggest that any assumption of rationality is often wildly optimistic.

Bounded rationality” describes the constraints within which reason operates. Human judgments suffer from a scarcity of information, time limitations and our limited ability to analyze.

Still, even the most effective information would not be enough to convince all vaccine-hesitant individuals. In some cases, it can have the opposite effect.

Understanding psychological and attitudinal predictors of vaccine hesitancy allows us to compare their influence in different contexts. Contexts define the environmental background (or setting) in which individuals decide about the vaccine.

These comparisons show that thought patterns and attitudes that feed into vaccine hesitancy can be modified, unlike stable risk factors, including demographic factors, such as unemployment, lower education, younger age, rural residency, sex and migrant status.

Change in vaccination decision over time

Immunization behaviours evolve over time, influenced by social dynamics. Researchers have studied why voluntary vaccination programs for childhood disease sometimes fail, showing how self-interested decision-making leads to lower vaccination rates and prevents the complete eradication of the illnesses that vaccination could otherwise control.

Assuming parents can make perfectly rational decisions, the study outlined two scenarios:

  1. The benefit of vaccination for their child, accepting there might be some risk of side-effects;

  2. The benefit of not vaccinating, knowing they can avoid side-effects, and hoping their child won’t catch the disease.

Whenever these choices seem equally good to parents, the researchers found there is a critical drop in vaccination uptake, especially for highly contagious diseases.

Another study investigated why vaccination rates swing wildly up and down over time instead of remaining steady.

The authors focused on how people copy each other’s behaviour and looked at two actual vaccine scares that happened in England and Wales, one in the 1970s with whooping cough vaccine and another in the 1990s with the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine.

They found that parents oscillated between vaccinating and not as they followed the herd in whatever choice seemed safest, causing boom-and-bust cycles and unstable community protection from the targeted illnesses.

Such dynamics can also result in localized pockets of under-vaccination that benefit the unprotected through herd immunity, but also risk unvaccinated groups becoming high-risk clusters if that protection deteriorates.

Echo chambers in social media

The COVID-19 pandemic has proven how damaging misinformation, disinformation, information voids and information gaps can be to public health, including immunization coverage and vaccine hesitancy.

The relationship between social media misinformation and vaccine hesitancy can be understood by looking at two elements: how much individuals are exposed to it and how persuasive social media is.

At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine-skeptical content on social media had a significant negative effect and fuelled doubts about vaccine safety and effectiveness, particularly when not subjected to flagging by fact-checkers.

The impact of unflagged vaccine-skeptical content in driving vaccine hesitancy was estimated to be 46 times greater than flagged misinformation content.

Factually accurate but potentially misleading content — such as a rare instance where a young, healthy individual passed away shortly after being vaccinated — also plays a critical role in driving up vaccine hesitancy.

In our own research, we and our collaborators argue that investigating the role of social media networks can help us develop new strategies to promote and increase evidence-based vaccine literacy.

The Conversation

Elkafi Hassini received Discovery and Alliance grants funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada that supported this research.

Emanuele Blasioli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Vaccine hesitancy: How social and technological issues converged to spawn mistrust – https://theconversation.com/vaccine-hesitancy-how-social-and-technological-issues-converged-to-spawn-mistrust-261938