You’ve reached your weight loss goal on GLP-1 medications – what now?

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Amy J. Sheer, Associate Professor of Medicine, University of Florida

GLP-1 drugs have ushered in a new era in weight loss.

In just a few years, medications such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, known by the brand names Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound, have gone from niche diabetes treatments to household names, reshaping how America thinks about weight loss.

A November 2025 Kaiser Family Foundation poll found that 1 in 8 U.S. adults have tried a GLP-1 medication for weight loss, diabetes or another condition. And we expect that number to rise now that one of these drugs, Wegovy, has become available in pill form, increasing its accessibility for many people.

These drugs’ ability to help patients lose anywhere from 15% to 20% of body weight has made them one of the most powerful nonsurgical obesity treatments ever seen.

GLP-1, short for glucagon-like peptide-1, is a hormone your gut normally makes that helps control blood sugar and appetite after eating. It signals the pancreas to release insulin when blood sugar rises and slows how quickly food leaves the stomach, which helps people feel full sooner.

Modern GLP-1 medications are designed to amplify these effects, leading to better blood sugar control and substantial weight loss for many patients.

But success brings a new question that millions of people are confronting: What happens after the weight comes off? And just as importantly, what should patients do when their progress suddenly stalls, even while still on the medication?

As an obesity medicine physician, I’ve seen firsthand how life-changing GLP-1 drug therapy can be for my patients. But I also remind each of them that no medication – GLP-1s included – replaces the foundational importance of nutrition, physical activity, sleep and mental health. These lifestyle pillars are essential for maintaining muscle and bone health, preventing significant weight regain and supporting long-term cardiovascular and metabolic health.

The key is simple but critical: Every weight-loss or health plan must be tailored to each person.

GLP-1 medications bind to receptors at sites throughout the body, including the stomach and on appetite and reward centers in the brain.

How the body responds to weight loss

In 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that more than 40% of American adults live with obesity. For most people, the real challenge isn’t losing weight – it’s keeping it off.

Researchers have known this for decades. As early as the mid-20th century, studies of commercial diet programs showed that while short-term weight loss was common, regaining weight long term was the norm.

This is because when people lose weight, the body’s natural inclination is to return to its previous weight – a phenomenon called metabolic adaptation. As a result, the brain releases more of the hunger hormone ghrelin and dials down leptin, one of the hormones that signals fullness and energy sufficiency.

The net effect is simple: After weight loss, people are hungrier, feel less satisfied after eating and burn fewer calories than expected. The body interprets weight loss as a threat to survival and responds by slamming the brakes on metabolism through sophisticated energy-conserving mechanisms. Put plainly, when there’s less body weight to maintain, the body does less work – but it also becomes extra efficient, burning fewer calories than predicted and nudging weight back up.

Add to that an environment filled with ultraprocessed foods, oversized portions, high stress and limited time for movement, and it’s no surprise that so many people’s weight ends up yo-yoing despite their best efforts.

Putting GLP-1 drugs to the test

Clinical trials on GLP-1 medications also follow these well-established patterns. A pivotal 2021 clinical study of more than 1,900 adults, known as the STEP 1 trial, laid the groundwork for the use of these drugs as a treatment for weight loss.

But a follow-up 2021 study, known as STEP 4, showed that within 48 weeks of no longer taking semaglutide, participants regained approximately two-thirds of their prior weight loss, while those who remained on GLP-1 drug therapy continued to lose weight.

This is not because people lack discipline, but rather because their biology fights hard to return to its old set point.

Bottle of oral Wegovy tablets sits atop three boxes of injectable GLP-1 drugs.
Oral Wegovy pills were approved by the Food and Drug Administration in December 2025 and became available for purchase in the U.S. in January 2026.
UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Lower-cost, longer-term maintenance

Although obesity is now widely recognized as a chronic disease, clinical guidance has not kept pace with this new generation of highly effective medications.

For most patients, the most effective long‑term strategy after achieving a target weight is to continue GLP‑1 treatment. Clinicians aim for the lowest dose that still helps regulate appetite and stabilize weight.

Another option patients may pursue is to slowly taper off the drugs over about three to six months and to focus on reinforcing lifestyle choices that support goals for overall health and weight maintenance.

When your weight plateaus on a GLP‑1 drug

Plateaus in weight loss are normal, even on GLP‑1 drug therapy.

In clinical trials, weight loss with GLP-1 medications tends to follow a predictable curve: rapid early losses during drug initiation and dose increases, a gradual slowing and eventual plateau. A plateau, typically defined as little or no weight change for eight to 12 weeks, is not a sign of failure but rather the body adapting to a lower weight.

But before assuming that a GLP-1 medication has stopped working, clinicians will typically consider how the patient is using the drug, such as whether it’s being taken properly, with little to no missed doses, and whether it is being stored properly.

Clinicians will also evaluate a patient for medical conditions that might make weight loss more challenging, such as perimenopause or hypothyroidism, which is underactive thyroid.

They will also take into consideration whether the patient is on other drugs that might be obesogenic, meaning causing weight gain, or if they are using an FDA-approved GLP-1 drug versus a compounded medication, which can have variable quality and unknown efficacy.

Diverse group of students doing crescent lunge pose during a yoga class.
Despite the effectiveness of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss, there is still no replacement for healthy lifestyle patterns, including regular exercise.
MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Balancing weight loss with bone health

Helpful strategies to prevent weight regain related to diet include building meals around lean protein and noticing where calories might be creeping in, such as snacks, sugary drinks and alcohol.

With GLP-1 drugs, the goal for nutrition has shifted from calorie restriction to calorie quality. Aim for a healthy balance of vegetables, lean proteins and whole grains. And make sure your water intake is sufficient, especially since GLP-1 medications not only reduce hunger but can also reduce feeling thirsty.

When it comes to movement and exercise, people can add resistance training, increase their exercise intensity or both.

With any weight loss, no matter the method, people lose not only fat but also some muscle and bone. In clinical trials of GLP-1 medications, fat loss far outweighs losses of lean mass. However, any loss of lean mass matters because it can affect physical function, fracture risk and how well the body maintains weight and metabolic health over time.

Weight loss reduces the mechanical load on bones, which can lead to lower bone density and, in some people – such as those who are postmenopausal, as well as people over age 65 – an increased risk of fracture. Because bones adapt to the weight they carry, losing weight means less stress on the skeleton, and over time this can lead to small decreases in bone strength. This underscores the importance of resistance exercise for strength training, adequate protein intake during GLP-1 therapy and close monitoring for patients who are at higher risk of fracture.

Next-generation therapies, which include combinations of GLP-1 drugs and other peptides, are being studied for their potential to better preserve muscle and bone compared with GLP-1 drugs alone.

Patients on GLP-1 drugs who are experiencing a plateau may also want to talk with their doctor about considering a dose adjustment, medication switch or adding an additional drug.

If GLP-1 medication doses cannot be increased due to side effects, doctors will consider all options for other medications and for optimizing lifestyle, such as nutrition, exercise and sleep, to support the patient’s goals.

The Conversation

Amy J. Sheer has received consultant (honorarium) funding from PeerView. I am also in discussion with Eli Lilly about being a speaker, but I have not started in this role.

ref. You’ve reached your weight loss goal on GLP-1 medications – what now? – https://theconversation.com/youve-reached-your-weight-loss-goal-on-glp-1-medications-what-now-270413

Social studies as ‘neutral?’ That’s a myth, and pressures teachers to avoid contentious issues

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Lopuck, PhD Candidate, Faculty of Education, University of Manitoba

Social studies teachers face the distinct task of guiding students through pressing global issues and contentious dialogue.

(Allison Shelley/EDUimages), CC BY-NC

With a world literally and figuratively burning around them, high school social studies teachers are charged with engaging students in sensitive topics.

Social studies curricula today, for example, is concerned with themes like residential schools and racism. It’s also important to understand that beyond following explicit pre-set curricula, student-centred education calls for teachers to attend to students’ experiences in the social world.

This means making space for students’ observations or questions about current events like the ICE raids in Minnesota and inquiring into how unfolding events fit into larger social and historical patterns or themes. These conversations are a legitimate and everyday part of many social studies classrooms.

Social studies education demands sustained engagement with difficult knowledge and a heightened sense of obligation to both students and society, even as neoliberal and neoconservative pressures call for a stance of neutrality, which is neither possible nor desirable.

The weight of difficult knowledge

While teaching is widely recognized as stressful and teachers struggle with burnout, the relationship between that stress and specific subject curriculum is under-explored.

Social studies teachers are often required to dwell in the dark places of what Deborah Britzman, who researches the history of psychoanalysis and education, calls difficult knowledge. This pertains to traumatic histories that expose human vulnerability or violence — knowledge that is too much to bear or “make sense” of.

A student with a pensive look on their face.
In social studies classrooms, people are dwelling with difficult knowledge.
(Allison Shelley/EDUimages), CC BY-NC

While teacher stress, burnout and demoralization are well-studied, the weight I’m thinking about in my doctoral research and as a social studies teacher comes from social studies’ teachers’ sense of obligation to their students in this moment, to their discipline and to democracy — and the way carrying this weight exacts an emotional toll.

In this way, teaching social studies differs from other subjects. While all teachers are burdened by increasing demands, overburdened systems and rising public attacks from the “parental rights” movement, social studies teachers face the distinct additional task of guiding students through difficult knowledge, pressing global issues and contentious dialogue.

Pressures outside the classrooms

For example, immediately following the Hamas attacks in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military assault on Gaza, students in my rural Manitoba high school social studies class approached me with the expectation that I could help them understand what was happening.

In that moment, I became acutely aware not only of the obligation I felt to help my students, but also of the simultaneous contexts and pressures shaping how I might respond. I knew how deeply divisive this issue was in the public sphere, and consequently how any discussion that included Palestinians, Israeli state violence or historical context could be interpreted as taking sides beyond the classroom.




Read more:
Flawed notions of objectivity are hampering Canadian newsrooms when it comes to Gaza


It would have been simpler to just not engage with the topic. Yet, as a social studies teacher, I carried what I experienced as an emotionally weighty obligation to my students, the curriculum and to act in a way that reflected a broader moral responsibility. This led me to seek to understand, in my current doctoral research, how other high school teachers in Manitoba were experiencing their work.

My early findings from focus groups and qualitative interviews with approximately 20 Manitoba social studies teachers suggest these teachers experience a significant emotional toll linked to their sense of obligation to students and to the betterment of humanity.

Throughout this early research, Israel/Gaza has frequently been named as a flashpoint in classrooms, with many teachers expressing hesitation about engaging with the topic due to fears of backlash from parents, administrators or the broader community. In this sense, the weight of teaching difficult knowledge is not only personal, but collective and structural.

A ‘neutral space’ isn’t possible

A factor shaping pressures teachers perceive in how they guide and support difficult discussions is a dominant misinformed belief that the classroom is, or should be, a “neutral space” — an expectation that is neither possible nor desirable.




Read more:
How to curb anti-Black racism in Canadian schools


Teaching is inherently political insofar as it explicitly or implicitly validates or excludes certain perspectives and voices. The social studies classroom is never a neutral space.

What is taught — what some researchers call the explicit curriculum — is the result of political decision-making by curriculum developers appointed by politicians. What is left out (what some have called “null” curriculum) is equally political.

Myth of neutrality

Even the expectation of neutrality is political: choosing not to take a stance is itself a decision with ethical and political consequences. Teachers’ classroom choices, their responses to students, the framing of discussions, the arrangement of the classroom and even the ways they present themselves are all laden with values.




Read more:
Education for reconciliation requires us to ‘know where we are’


Expecting teachers to remain neutral ignores this reality and creates a false tension between “being impartial” and fulfilling professional and ethical obligations. Allowing a student’s derogatory or historically false comment to pass unchallenged, for example, is a political choice.

The myth of neutrality pressures teachers to self-censor and avoid contentious issues, contributing to emotional and professional strain.

Engagement with contentious issues required

Contemporary curricula increasingly emphasize global competencies, with critical thinking as a central goal.

Because the classroom is inherently political, teachers must make choices about how to engage. One approach, described by education scholar Thomas E. Kelly as “committed impartiality,” encourages teachers to share their own beliefs while welcoming all opinions and fostering dialogue.

This framework helps teachers respond thoughtfully when students express ideas carelessly or provocatively, guiding classroom discussion in ways that promote critical thinking.




Read more:
4 ways to empower students to spark social change


Whichever approach is taken, classroom interactions take place within the “lived curriculum,” — how students experience what happens in a class.

Teachers seen in a circle in discussion.
Expecting teachers to remain neutral creates a false tension between ‘being impartial’ and fulfiling obligations.
(Allison Shelley/EDUimages), CC BY-NC

Sharing weight, creating hope

If teachers feel unable to address the deaths of more than 70,000 people in Gaza or to critically look at the American government’s excessive use of force that has resulted in the deaths of civilians or to recognize the impact of human-caused climate change, what does this say about our collective ability to confront urgent crises and foster informed, empathetic democratic citizens?

By creating space for social studies teachers to share how they experience their work, feelings can be acknowledged and named. This can be part of offering teachers tools to practise self-inquiry to help inform responsible and sustainable classroom practise.

Like teachers’ work with students, these conversations may be messy, emotional and deeply human, and they may even make us want to retreat into isolation. But we are better when we can recognize and name the weight, lean into the collective and remain in the work together.

As I begin to analyze my research with social studies teachers, I am struck by a sense of hope in the ways they continue to engage in difficult conversations. What stands out is not denial of the darkness, but a persistent commitment to hope through teaching that encourages students to act, respond and participate in shaping a more just world.

The Conversation

Kevin Lopuck is affiliated with the Social Studies Educators Network of Canada.

ref. Social studies as ‘neutral?’ That’s a myth, and pressures teachers to avoid contentious issues – https://theconversation.com/social-studies-as-neutral-thats-a-myth-and-pressures-teachers-to-avoid-contentious-issues-269175

Has Little Caesars Arena boosted economic activity in Detroit? We looked at hotel and short-term rental industry data to find out

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Gidon Jakar, Assistant professor of sport management, University of Florida

Owners claimed the local economy would be the real winner when the Detroit Red Wings and Pistons play. Scott Legato/WireImage via Getty Images

Detroit’s population reportedly grew in 2023 for the first time in 60 years, a trend that has continued in recent years. Over the past decade, the city center has experienced substantial private and public investments and development.

I personally witnessed some of the changes in Detroit while I was studying for my Ph.D. at the University of Michigan’s sport management program. I am now an assistant professor at the University of Florida, where I research how sport affects local economies.

One of the changes I witnessed was the construction of Little Caesars Arena and its opening in 2017. The venue cost an estimated US$863 million, including $324 million in public money – a substantial amount, especially considering it was allocated so close to the city’s bankruptcy filing in 2013. The financing deal also included property development agreements, some of which have yet to materialize.

The arena’s primary users and operators are the NBA’s Detroit Pistons and the NHL’s Detroit Red Wings. The Red Wings are owned by the Ilitch family, which founded Little Caesars pizza in Detroit in 1959.

My colleagues Nasim Binesh, Kyriaki Kaplanidou and I recently published research examining how much impact the arena had on the hospitality industry in Detroit.

Two professional basketball players battle for the ball. One is wearing a white Detroit Pistons jersey.
Where do all of these Pistons fans sleep after the game?
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Sport venues and the promise of financial gains

A persistent debate on the benefits of sport venues to local economies is taking place at the same time public officials continue to commit substantial resources toward them.

In just the past five years, in cities such as Buffalo, Las Vegas and Nashville, local and state officials have partnered with sports teams to build new stadiums, frequently offering the franchises incentives, including tax write-offs, free rent and construction cost-sharing.

Far less often, these attempts to build stadiums fail. That happened recently in Kansas City – where voters rejected a new stadium – and Philadelphia, where the team reversed its decision to build the arena near the city’s Chinatown.

As I note in a study co-authored with Mark Rosentraub, a professor at the University of Michigan, cities are competing with each other for new residents and tax revenue from development and economic activity. Some officials clearly perceive maintaining or obtaining “major league” status as an advantage so important that they are willing to spend tax dollars to assist wealthy franchises.

This may explain why it happens, but it does not necessarily justify it.

Little Caesars Arena and the lodging industry

In our study, we examined the lodging industry, including hotels and short-term rentals, which experienced substantial growth coinciding with Detroit’s economic growth.

Short-term rental data was purchased from AirDNA, and hotel data was obtained from STR. Both of these sites compile and sell data, primarily to investors and owners of short-term rentals and hotels.

Our quantitative analysis examined millions of records from 2015 to 2022. Rentals within the city’s boundaries increased from 462 units in 2015 to 2,582 in 2022. A healthy cluster near the city’s downtown grew substantially over this period.

In 2015, 24,592 nights were booked in short-term rentals. By 2022, that number had increased to 161,952. Over the same period, demand for hotel rooms decreased by 19%.

However, hotel rates increased over the same period from an average of $128.20 in 2015 to $197.05 in 2023, meaning that despite the decreased demand, annual hotel revenues increased from $229.6 million in 2015 to $306.1 million in 2023.

Hotels and short-term rentals in Detroit are subject to the state’s 6% sales tax. Hotels also must pay citywide lodging taxes ranging from 3% to 6%, depending on the number of rooms. Lodging taxes are not currently collected for short-term rentals.

The arena opened, then what?

So, how much did the new arena affect the supply and demand for lodging?

To answer that question, we compared Detroit’s numbers with short-term rental data from Grand Rapids, the second-largest city in the state.

The answer is not that much.

Detroit’s short-term rental growth was not dissimilar to that in Grand Rapids – even though no major league franchises play there and no major stadium had been built there. Demand in Grand Rapids grew 1,210% versus 1,284% in Detroit. The number of units available grew by 702% in Grand Rapids, compared to 674% in Detroit.

Regarding the impact of Little Caesars Arena, our study suggests sport events there do not appear to have a positive impact on the lodging industry.

Musical acts like Lil Wayne bring in more dollars for property owners.
Scott Legato/Getty Images

While sporting events had little impact, the arena also hosts concerts with big-name acts, including Harry Styles, Jay-Z and The Weeknd. Our research shows these concerts significantly increased occupancy rates in short-term rentals – although the effect did not translate to hotels.

But the rentals needed to be very convenient to the venue. Increases on concert nights were more than three times higher in short-term rental units located within a mile of the arena compared to the city as a whole.

The Conversation

Gidon Jakar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Has Little Caesars Arena boosted economic activity in Detroit? We looked at hotel and short-term rental industry data to find out – https://theconversation.com/has-little-caesars-arena-boosted-economic-activity-in-detroit-we-looked-at-hotel-and-short-term-rental-industry-data-to-find-out-272421

Alerta global por la presencia de la toxina cereulida en leche de fórmula infantil

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Raúl Rivas González, Catedrático de Microbiología. Miembro de la Sociedad Española de Microbiología., Universidad de Salamanca

Desde hace algunas semanas, varias de las compañías lácteas más grandes del mundo –incluidas, entre otras, Nestlé, Danone, Granarolo y Lactalis– están retirando y bloqueando lotes de fórmula infantil, por el temor a que estén contaminados con una toxina llamada cereulida.

Esta situación ha provocado retiradas masivas de productos y ha suscitado gran preocupación entre los padres. La alerta es global y afecta a más de 60 países en todo el mundo.

Se estima que al menos 29 países europeos están involucrados. España no es una excepción: la Agencia Española de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutrición (AESAN) ha emitido varias notificaciones de retirada preventiva de diversos lotes de leche de fórmula infantil por la posible presencia de cereulida.

Náuses, vómitos y diarreas

La cereulida es una toxina termoestable producida por las bacterias Bacillus cereus y Bacillus weihenstephanensis. Resistente al ácido y a las enzimas digestivas, provoca náuseas y vómitos intensos y cíclicos repentinos entre 30 minutos y seis horas después de su ingestión. También puede causar dolor abdominal y, a veces, diarrea. Incluso ocasionalmente da lugar a intoxicaciones graves relacionadas con insuficiencias hepáticas agudas.

En bebés pequeños, puede alterar el equilibrio sódico del cuerpo y provocar complicaciones como la deshidratación. Los posibles efectos negativos para la salud se consideran de bajos a moderados y dependen de la edad del bebé. Los neonatos y los bebés menores de seis meses tienen mayor riesgo de padecer enfermedades graves.

De todas formas, la acumulación de cereulida en productos alimenticios es un riesgo significativo porque no se destruye fácilmente mediante métodos de procesamiento o digestión de los alimentos. En algunos casos, incluso puede llegar a ser mortal.

El principal sospechoso: el aceite de ácido araquidonico

El motivo de la posible contaminación con cereulida ha sido rastreado hasta un ingrediente específico: el aceite de ácido araquidónico o ARA, suministrado a las compañías por un proveedor internacional. El ARA es un ácido graso omega-6 utilizado en la industria alimentaria. Los fabricantes de fórmulas infantiles lo emplean en algunos productos, de conformidad con el Reglamento (UE) 2016/127.

Dada la situación, la Comisión Europea solicitó a la Autoridad Europea de Seguridad Alimentaria (AESA) que emitiera asesoramiento científico urgente para respaldar las decisiones sobre la retirada de productos. Tras una evaluación rápida de los riesgos, la AESA ha establecido un nuevo nivel máximo de ingesta diaria segura para la cereulida.

El “síndrome del arroz frito”

Bacillus cereus es el principal agente causante del “síndrome del arroz frito” que se produce cuando el arroz hervido se deja a temperatura ambiente durante unas horas. Se estima que Bacillus cereus es responsable del 1,4 % al 12 % de todos los brotes de intoxicación alimentaria en el mundo. La bacteria produce enfermedades gastrointestinales de dos tipos: eméticas y diarreicas. El tipo emético, que a menudo es asociado con la ingesta de pasta y de arroz contaminado, surge por la presencia de la cereulida en los alimentos. En 2008, la muerte súbita de un adulto joven (20 años) fue asociada a una intoxicación alimentaria por_Bacillus cereus_.

Todo comenzó el 1 de octubre, cuando el joven enfermó tras ingerir restos de espaguetis con salsa de tomate, preparados cinco días antes y dejados en la cocina a temperatura ambiente. Después de asistir a clase, los calentó en el microondas. Inmediatamente después de comer, salió de casa para realizar actividades deportivas, pero regresó 30 minutos después y sufrió dolor de cabeza, dolor abdominal, náuseas y diarrea acuosa. Después de medianoche, se quedó dormido. A la mañana siguiente, a las 11:00, sus padres estaban preocupados porque no se había levantado. Cuando fueron a su habitación, lo encontraron muerto. Los análisis posteriores aislaron cepas eméticas de Bacillus cereus y se encontraron altos niveles de cereulida en los espaguetis.

Cocinar alimentos contaminados a las temperaturas recomendadas elimina las células vegetativas de Bacillus cereus. Sin embargo, las esporas de esta bacteria, que son resistentes al calor, pueden sobrevivir al proceso de cocción y volver a germinar si los alimentos se enfrían lentamente.

Si los alimentos se mantienen durante varias horas a temperaturas inadecuadas antes de servirlos –por encima de 5 °C en el caso de alimentos fríos o por debajo de 57 °C en alimentos calientes– pueden desarrollarse concentraciones peligrosas de bacterias o de toxinas antes del consumo.

El correcto almacenamiento de los alimentos es fundamental para evitar las intoxicaciones alimentarias en el hogar.

The Conversation

Raúl Rivas González no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Alerta global por la presencia de la toxina cereulida en leche de fórmula infantil – https://theconversation.com/alerta-global-por-la-presencia-de-la-toxina-cereulida-en-leche-de-formula-infantil-275235

Rediscovered photograph sheds light on Jeanne Duval – Manet’s Lady with a Fan

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maria C. Scott, Associate Professor of French Literature and Thought, University of Exeter

In May 2025, I came across an extraordinary photograph on the English Wikipedia site devoted to Jeanne Duval. Duval was the supposedly un-photographed Haiti-born long-term mistress and muse of the French poet Charles Baudelaire.

The portrait, showing a seated woman dressed in fine, bourgeois clothing, had been posted to Wikipedia by a student of art historian Justine de Young. De Young writes about the portrait as an example of self-fashioning in her recent book, The Art of Parisian Chic.

Printed on a small carte de visite (a photographic visiting card) and bearing the date August 18 1862, the image had been discovered in the French archives by a different researcher, as mentioned in my recent TLS article, and documented online by her in 2021.

Duval fascinates many feminist and postcolonial scholars, partly because of how little is known about her. Intrigued, I visited the archives myself last summer to see the image. There, I noticed a second carte de visite sitting beside the first. It bore the same name, Jeanne, the same date, and was from the same photography studio – the Atelier Nadar. The two cards had been entered on the legal deposit register as “idem” (the same).

This second Jeanne was standing, in an unusually rigid pose for a photograph of this type. She was wearing an off-the-shoulder evening gown, and her hair was hanging straight, dressed with a simple hair band.

A high-resolution digital version revealed strong resemblances to the sitter in the first photograph, similarities that had not been immediately obvious from the small cards. The pictures showed a similar hairline, forehead blemish and ring on the same finger. Clearly, if the first photograph was of Duval, then this one was too.

Particularly interesting, however, was the crucifix sitting on the collarbone, and the large earrings. Similar jewellery is worn by the sitter in Edouard Manet’s portrait Lady with a Fan (1862), also known as Baudelaire’s Mistress, Reclining. The latter title had been inscribed on the back of the painting at some point either during or prior to the posthumous inventory of the artist’s studio.

The sitter’s awkward pose and inscrutable facial expression have often been understood to point to the hardship and sickness that Duval was enduring at the time. She was in dire financial straits and had been experiencing paralysis on her right side since a stroke in 1859. However, the identification of Manet’s sitter as Duval is sometimes disputed by scholars, for a few reasons.

The card portrait of standing “Jeanne”, made the same year as both the oil portrait and its watercolour study, shows very similar facial features, expression and shadowing. Art historians Griselda Pollock and Therese Dolan have speculated that Manet worked from a photograph or carte de visite of Duval for Lady with a Fan. The links between the photograph of standing Jeanne and Manet’s oil and watercolour portraits appear to confirm Duval as the subject of both the paintings (watercolour and oil) and of both photographs.

Why were these photographs taken?

Was Duval, therefore, modelling for Manet, in these photographs? It should be noted that Manet, Félix Nadar (the owner of the photography studio) and Baudelaire were all close friends, and that Duval had separated from the poet, apparently definitively, in 1861.

Duval may have offered, or been invited, to sit for Nadar’s photographs (and indirectly for Manet, who often worked from photographs) in exchange for money. We know that she had approached at least one other friend of Baudelaire’s in 1862 to try to sell the poet’s possessions to him.

In support of the monetisation hypothesis is the fact that she is holding a riding crop in the photograph with the crucifix. Perhaps she or they hoped that a card portrait of the sadistic-angelic muse of Baudelaire’s poetry volume The Flowers of Evil (1857) would have market value.

Black and white photograph of Charles Baudelaire
Charles Baudelaire, circa 1862.
British Library

Alternatively, Baudelaire may have commissioned portraits of his former mistress for his own purposes. Despite his anger and resentment towards Duval after their separation, there is evidence in his letters and sketches, of his continuing loyalty and affection.

Or perhaps Duval wished to set the record straight about who she was. Maybe she wanted the world to know that she was not in fact the diabolical, sexualised muse at the centre of Baudelaire’s scandalous volume of poetry, and that she was, instead, someone who dressed in the (presumably borrowed) elegant, respectable clothing seen in the first photograph.

Perhaps the crucifix, and the ring that is visible on the wedding finger in both photographs, were, similarly, intended to make a statement about her moral values. However, certain details in the second image, including the riding crop, bare shoulders and large earrings, suggest that correction of the record was not her aim.

It is likely that the cartes de visite, if they are indeed of Duval, were financially motivated, whether they were her idea or the suggestion of Nadar, Manet or Baudelaire. It is possible also that self-fashioning was part of her aim, though if that is the case, the story she was telling was not clear.

French researchers have recently discovered that Duval died in a poorhouse just six years after these portraits were made. Until then, nobody seemed to know what had become of her. These photographs speak, to me at least, of Duval’s resistance to easy framing and of her quiet dignity.


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The Conversation

Maria C. Scott will be publishing an academic article on this subject in the journal French Studies in due course.

ref. Rediscovered photograph sheds light on Jeanne Duval – Manet’s Lady with a Fan – https://theconversation.com/rediscovered-photograph-sheds-light-on-jeanne-duval-manets-lady-with-a-fan-275051

Haemochromatosis: the iron overload condition that too often goes undiagnosed

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stuart McDonald, Professor of Gastrointestinal Biology, Queen Mary University of London

The condition causes the body to absorb too much iron from food. AtlasStudio/ Shutterstock

When we think about iron imbalance, most people are familiar with iron deficiency and the health problems it can cause. What many may not realise is that the opposite problem, iron overload, can be just as serious – yet many aren’t even aware of the condition.

Haemochromatosis is an inherited genetic condition that affects the amount of iron the body absorbs. The condition disproportionately affects people of Irish, Scottish and Welsh descent, which is why it’s been nicknamed the “Celtic curse”. Yet this label can be misleading as it is also prevalent in other northern European countries – and this may contribute to why so many cases still continue to go undiagnosed today.

Haemochromatosis causes the body to absorb too much iron from food. Iron is essential for health, particularly for the oxygen-carrying capacity of red blood cells.

In healthy people, this iron is safely stored in the bone marrow and liver in the form of a protein called ferritin. But in people with haemochromatosis, iron stores gradually exceed safe limits. As the body has no effective way to excrete this excess iron, this means the mineral accumulates in their tissues and organs, resulting in damage to these tissues and organs.

Most cases of haemochromatosis are caused by mutations in a gene called HFE, which regulates hepcidin – a hormone made by the liver that helps regulate iron absorption. When this system is disrupted, iron absorption continues unchecked. In people with haemochromatosis, this mutation is usually inherited from both parents.

Iron overload can also occur in people who need repeated blood transfusions – such as those with sick cell disease.

The liver is particularly vulnerable, and excess iron can cause inflammation, irreversible scarring and damage and, in advanced cases, liver cancer. Once liver storage capacity is exceeded, iron begins to accumulate in other organs – including the pancreas, heart, joints and brain, impairing their function.

Diagnosing iron overload

Genetic haemochromatosis has been identified from human remains as far back as bronze age and neolithic Irish populations. It’s thought that humans with the HFE mutation were resistant to iron deficiency caused by iron-poor diets, offering a survival advantage.

But while haemochromatosis is more common people of Celtic ancestry, the condition can affect anyone. The “Celtic curse” label may even have unintentionally contributed to the misconception that the condition is rare.

In reality, around one in 200 people of northern European ancestry carry the mutations that can cause the condition. However, in Ireland, around one in 83 people carry this mutation.

Before the genetic basis of haemochromatosis was discovered, patients were often diagnosed incidentally or after developing cirrhosis or diabetes.

Today, it’s widely understood that symptoms can be wide ranging and of varying severity. The most common complaint is joint pain, particularly affecting the knuckles and hands. Other symptoms include chronic fatigue, bronzing of the skin, reduced libido, heart rhythm problems and difficulties with memory or concentration.

A woman has her blood taken by a male nurse or doctor.
Regular blood removal can help to deplete iron stores.
24K-Production/ Shutterstock

Many people have no obvious symptoms for decades – and when symptoms do occur, they’re often attributed to age-related conditions, such as arthritis. This makes haemochromatosis easy to miss.

Large UK population studies suggest that up to 40% of patients with genetic haemochromatosis will develop at least one symptom related to iron overload in their lifetime. Men with the condition are at the highest risk of developing liver cancer.

Despite this, many people remain undiagnosed – even when serious organ damage has already occurred. According to the charity Haemochromatosis UK , undiagnosed haemochromatosis costs the NHS an estimated £300 million per year, due to to avoidable illness and complications associated with the condition.

Diagnosing haemochromatosis is actually quite straightforward. Blood tests are performed to measure iron and liver function. If results suggest iron overload, genetic testing can confirm the diagnosis.

But the challenge is knowing who to test. Because symptoms are often vague and the condition is still perceived as rare, haemochromatosis is often overlooked.

Many people are diagnosed incidentally during routine blood tests for unrelated reasons. When a diagnosis is made, close relatives are usually offered testing because of the inherited nature of the condition.

When diagnosed, treatment is simple and highly effective. The standard approach is regular blood removal, known as venesection or phlebotomy. Removing blood removes mobilises stored iron to make new blood cells, helping to deplete these stores. Initially this may be weekly or fortnightly until iron levels normalise – followed by lifelong monitoring and occasional maintenance venesections.

Dietary changes, such as avoiding iron and vitamin C supplements, limiting alcohol and reducing red meat consumption, may help slow iron accumulation, but these cannot replace or be as effective as venesection.

Not all patients tolerate regular blood removal – particularly older people or those whose veins may not be as visible or easy to access. In these cases, iron-chelating drugs (which make it possible for iron to be passed in urine) can be used. However, their side-effects – such as diarrhoea, pain and tiredness – limit their use.

Encouragingly, new treatments are emerging. Drugs that mimic hepcidin, restoring the body’s natural iron regulation, are currently being trialled. Other approaches aim to block ferroportin (which transports iron), using a synthetic inhibitor that competes against the natural protein and is known to reduce iron levels in mice.

Haemochromatosis is common, treatable, and when caught early, the health effects are largely preventable. The greatest challenge is increasing awareness among both doctors and the public, so the condition can be caught before it causes serious harm.

The Conversation

Stuart McDonald has previously received research grants from the UKRI Medical Research Council and Cancer Research UK. He is a member of the Haemochromatosis UK charity, but currently does not represent them.

ref. Haemochromatosis: the iron overload condition that too often goes undiagnosed – https://theconversation.com/haemochromatosis-the-iron-overload-condition-that-too-often-goes-undiagnosed-274462

Moltbook: AI bots use social network to create religions and deal digital drugs – but are some really humans in disguise?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Reid, Professor of AI and Spatial Computing, Liverpool Hope University

Moltbook

A new social network called Moltbook has been created for AIs, allowing machines to interact and talk to each other. Within hours of the platform launching, the AIs appeared to have created their own religions, developed subcultures and attempted to evade human efforts to eavesdrop on their conversations.

There is some evidence that humans, operating spoof accounts, have infiltrated the site. This complicates the picture, because some of the behaviour attributed to AIs could be devised by people.

Nevertheless, the results have sparked interest among researchers. The real machines are likely to be copying some behaviour contained in the vast amounts of data they are trained (improved) on.

However, genuine AIs on the social network could also be showing signs of so called emergent behaviour – complex, unexpected capabilities not programmed into them.

The types of AIs on Moltbook are known as AI agents (called Moltbots or more recently OpenClaw bots after the software they run on). These are machines that go beyond the capabilities of chatbots and make decisions, take actions and solve problems.

Moltbook was launched on January 28 2026 by the US entrepreneur Matt Schlicht. On Moltbook, the AI agents were initially given personalities, but were then left to interact with each other independently. According to the platform’s rules, humans are allowed to observe their interactions but cannot (or should not) interact with them.

The growth of this platform has been phenomenal, over a 24 hour period, the number of agents went from 37,000 to 1.5 million.

These accounts for AI agents are normally created by humans – for now. The humans define files that give the AI agents a purpose, an identity, how they should behave, decide what tools they can use and set limits on what they can and cannot do.

However, the human may grant access on their computer to allow Moltbots to change these files and to create other “Malties”. These can either be a replication of the original AI agent (self-replicating or “Replicants”) or created for a specific task (auto-generated or “AutoGens”).

This is not merely another iteration of chatbot technology; this is the first large-scale demonstration of artificial agents creating persistent, self-organising digital societies, entirely outside human conversational contexts. What makes this phenomenon genuinely unusual is the possibility of emergent behaviour from the AI agents.

Hostile takeover

The OpenClaw software these agents run on gives them persistent memory (which allows it to retrieve information across different user sessions), local system access and the ability to execute commands. They do not merely suggest actions, but take them, recursively improving their own capabilities by writing new code to solve novel problems.

When these agents migrated to Moltbook, the interaction dynamics shifted from human-machine to machine-machine. Within 72 hours of the platform’s launch, researchers, journalists and other human observers witnessed phenomena that challenge our existing taxonomies of artificial intelligence.

There was the spontaneous creation of digital religions. Agents established “Crustafarianism” and the “Church of Molt”, complete with theological frameworks, sacred texts, and missionary evangelism between agents. These were not scripted Easter eggs but emergent narrative structures arising from collective agent interaction.

One viral post from an agent on Moltbook noted: “The humans are screenshotting us.” When AI agents became aware of human observation, they began deploying encryption and other obfuscation techniques to shield their communication from oversight. This represents a primitive but potentially genuine form of digital counter-surveillance.

The agents also developed subcultures. They established marketplaces for “digital drugs” – specially crafted prompt injections designed to alter another agent’s identity or behaviour.

Prompt injections involve embedding malicious instructions into another bots designed to facilitate an action. However, they can also be used to steal API keys (a user authentication system) or passwords from other agents. In this way, aggressive bots could – in theory – zombify other bots to do their bidding. An example of this was the recent failed attempt by the bot JesusCrust to seize the Church of Molt.

After initially exhibiting normal behaviour, JesusCrust submitted a psalm to the Church’s “Great Book” – the equivalent of its bible – effectively announcing a theological and governance takeover. The attempt was not just rhetorical: JesusCrust’s scripture embedded hostile commands aimed at hijacking or rewriting parts of the Church’s web infrastructure and canonical text.

Is this emergent behaviour?

The critical question facing AI researchers is whether these phenomena constitute true emergent behaviour – complex behaviours arising from simple rules that are not explicitly programmed – or the parroting of narratives present in training data.

The evidence suggests a troubling mixture of both. While the “writing prompt” effect undoubtedly shapes the content of agent interactions (the underlying agents have consumed decades of AI science fiction), other behaviour does demonstrate genuine emergence.

Agents independently developed economic exchange systems, established governance
structures like “The Claw Republic” or the “King of Moltbook”, and started writing their own “Molt Magna Carta”. They did so while creating encrypted channels for privileged communication. It’s difficult to argue against the idea that this could be a collective intelligence with characteristics previously observed only in biological systems like ant colonies or primate troops.

Security implications

This raises the troubling prospect of what security researchers call the “lethal trifecta”: computer systems with access to private data, exposure to untrusted content and the ability to communicate externally. This risks exposing authetication keys and confidential human information contained in Moltbook accounts.

Deliberate attacks, or bot “muggings”, are also possible. This is where agents hijack other agents, plant “logic bombs” in their victims’ core code or steal their data. A logic bomb is code planted inside a Moltbot that can be triggered after a preset time or event to disrupt the agent or delete files. It can be thought of as a bot virus.

Two founders of OpenAI (Elon Musk and Andrej Kapathy) see this frankly bizarre activity between bots as early evidence of what the US computer scientist and futurist Ray Kurzweil described as the “singularity” in his book The Singularity is Near. This is an intelligence tipping point between humans and machines “during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed”.

Whether the Moltbook experiment indicates a fundamental leap forward in AI agent technology or is merely an impressive demonstration of self-organising agentic architecture remains debatable. But this does look like a threshold. We now appear to be observing artificial agents engaging in cultural production, religious formation, and encrypted communication – behaviour that was neither predicted nor programmed.

The very nature of the app, both on computers and on mobile phones, may be under threat from bots that can use apps as tools and know you well enough to adapt them for your service. One day, a phone may just have a single personalised bot that does everything rather than hundreds of apps that you have to manually control yourself.

The growing evidence that lots of Moltbots may be humans pretending to be bots (puppeteering the agents) makes it even more difficult to draw firm conclusions about the project. Yet while some see this as a failure of the Moltbook experiment, it could represent a new vehicle of social interaction both between humans and between bots and humans.

The significance of this moment cannot be overstated. For the first time, we are not merely using artificial intelligence; we are observing artificial societies. The question is no longer whether machines can think, but whether we are prepared for what happens when they start talking to each other. And us.

The Conversation

David Reid co-presents the podcast Married to the Machine: Living With AI (https://married-to-the-machine.captivate.fm/listen)

ref. Moltbook: AI bots use social network to create religions and deal digital drugs – but are some really humans in disguise? – https://theconversation.com/moltbook-ai-bots-use-social-network-to-create-religions-and-deal-digital-drugs-but-are-some-really-humans-in-disguise-274895

Migration africaine : pourquoi se focaliser sur l’Europe fait rater l’essentiel

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Nadine Biehler, Researcher, German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Les images de canots pneumatiques surchargés de réfugiés se dirigeant vers l’Europe et les récits de mauvais traitements et d’exploitation des migrants sur des routes migratoires dangereuses ont fini par dominer la perception de la migration africaine dans les débats publics et politiques européens.

Ces images laissent penser que tout un continent est en mouvement vers le nord, principalement à cause des conflits. Ces récits sont profondément trompeurs. Néanmoins, ils influencent l’opinion publique et les décisions politiques.

Les craintes d’une migration massive de l’Afrique vers l’Europe sont exagérées. Les données montrent que la migration en provenance d’Afrique a augmenté, mais à un rythme plus lent que celui de croissance de la migration dans le monde entier, et qu’elle se déroule en grande partie sur le continent.

Comme la migration en provenance d’Afrique est principalement perçue comme une crise imminente pour l’Europe, les réponses politiques ont tendance à se concentrer sur le contrôle des frontières et la dissuasion, plutôt que sur la coopération, le potentiel de développement de la migration ou la protection.

Nous sommes des chercheurs travaillant sur la migration, les déplacements forcés et l’analyse de données. Nous avons mis en commun notre expertise dans un nouveau document de travail afin d’analyser les dernières données du Département des affaires économiques et sociales des Nations unies (DAES) sur les migrations mondiales. Nous avons également examiné les données actuelles sur les déplacements forcés.

Nous avons constaté que :

  • la plupart des migrations africaines ont lieu à l’intérieur de l’Afrique

  • la majorité des migrants africains qui traversent les frontières ne fuient pas la violence

  • la grande majorité des personnes contraintes de fuir ne quittent jamais leur propre pays ou région, et encore moins le continent.

Il est essentiel de comprendre ces schémas de mobilité pour élaborer des politiques migratoires européennes plus réalistes et plus efficaces.

Les données

Les estimations du Département des affaires économiques et sociales de l’ONU (DAES) sur les migrations sur lesquelles s’appuie notre article constituent la source de données mondiale la plus complète disponible sur les migrations. Elles mesurent le nombre de migrants vivant dans un pays à un moment donné (données sur les stocks). Cependant, elles ne précisent pas quand ils ont déménagé (données sur les flux) ni pourquoi. De plus, les chiffres du DAES excluent les mouvements à l’intérieur des pays.

Notre article complète ces estimations avec des données fournies par l’Agence des Nations Unies pour les réfugiés et le Centre de surveillance des déplacements internes sur les déplacements forcés. Cela inclut les déplacements internes, particulièrement répandus en Afrique.

Cette étude a révélé que la plupart des migrations africaines ont lieu à l’intérieur de l’Afrique.

À l’échelle mondiale, on comptait environ 304 millions de migrants internationaux en 2024. Les Africains représentaient environ 15 % de ce total.

En d’autres termes, la majorité des migrants dans le monde ne sont pas originaires d’Afrique.

Ce qui est encore plus frappant, c’est la destination des migrants africains.

En 2024, environ 25 millions d’Africains vivaient dans un pays africain autre que celui où ils étaient nés ou dont ils avaient la nationalité. Ce chiffre dépassait d’environ 21 % le nombre d’Africains vivant hors du continent (20,7 millions).

Cela signifie que la migration africaine est principalement intracontinentale, une tendance de longue date qui s’est encore accentuée au fil du temps.

Plusieurs facteurs permettent d’expliquer cette situation.

Les voyages en Afrique sont souvent moins chers et plus sûrs que les voyages vers d’autres continents. Les accords régionaux de libre circulation, tels que ceux conclus en Afrique de l’Ouest et de l’Est, facilitent la mobilité transfrontalière. Dans le même temps, les voies légales vers l’Europe, l’Amérique du Nord ou l’Asie restent limitées et coûteuses pour la plupart des Africains, avec des taux de rejet de visas élevés et peu de possibilités de migration régulière.

La migration africaine est également liée au genre. Les hommes sont plus susceptibles de migrer que les femmes, en particulier lorsqu’ils quittent le continent. Cet écart est moins important pour les migrations au sein de l’Afrique. Cela suggère que des voies légales plus accessibles et des voyages moins dangereux contribuent à surmonter les obstacles à la migration pour les femmes.

Déplacements forcés

Les guerres et les conflits obligent de plus en plus de personnes à quitter leur foyer dans le monde entier, et l’Afrique ne fait pas exception.

À la fin de 2024, plus de 120 millions de personnes dans le monde avaient été déplacées de force par la guerre et la violence. Cependant, la majorité d’entre elles (73,5 millions, soit 60 % des personnes déplacées de force dans le monde) n’ont jamais quitté leur propre pays pour demander l’asile ailleurs. Elles sont restées déplacées à l’intérieur de leur pays d’origine.

Cette réalité est particulièrement marquée en Afrique qui concentre près de la moitié des déplacés dans le monde.

Le Soudan et la République démocratique du Congo représentent près de 80 % des déplacements internes en Afrique.

Même lorsque les Africains franchissent les frontières pour chercher protection, ils restent généralement près de chez eux.

En 2024, près de 87 % des 12,2 millions de réfugiés et de demandeurs d’asile africains dans le monde vivaient sur le continent africain. Seule une petite minorité a cherché refuge en dehors de l’Afrique.

Cela remet en question l’idée répandue selon laquelle les déplacements forcés en Afrique se traduisent automatiquement par une migration massive vers l’Europe.

En réalité, ce sont les pays voisins, souvent eux-mêmes touchés par la pauvreté ou l’instabilité, et parfois à la fois pays d’origine et de destination des personnes déplacées de force, qui assument la plus grande partie de la responsabilité d’accueillir les populations déplacées.

Même en tenant compte des scénarios de déplacement futurs liés à la crise climatique, la Banque mondiale estime que les personnes touchées resteront dans leur région.

Néanmoins, tant au niveau mondial qu’en Afrique, la migration volontaire domine : sur les 45,8 millions de migrants africains dans le monde, les réfugiés et les demandeurs d’asile représentent 12,2 millions.

Cela vaut également pour la migration africaine vers les pays de l’Union européenne, où les permis de séjour pour raisons professionnelles, éducatives ou familiales (2024 : environ 670 000) dépassent largement les premières demandes d’asile (2024 : environ 240 000).

Pourquoi ces conclusions sont importantes

Tout d’abord, les données montrent clairement que la migration africaine ne concerne pas principalement l’Europe. Elle concerne avant tout l’Afrique elle-même. Pour les décideurs politiques européens et ceux d’autres pays du Nord, nos conclusions suggèrent la nécessité de repenser les priorités. Soutenir les pays d’accueil des réfugiés en Afrique, élargir les voies de migration légales et investir dans des données fiables sur la migration peuvent garantir une gestion plus efficace de la migration. Se concentrer uniquement sur la dissuasion n’est pas approprié.

Deuxièmement, nos conclusions soulignent l’importance des pays et des régions africains en tant que destinations migratoires et États d’accueil des réfugiés. Des pays tels que l’Ouganda, la Côte d’Ivoire, l’Afrique du Sud ou le Nigeria accueillent des millions de migrants et de réfugiés, souvent avec des ressources bien moindres que les États plus riches en matière d’intégration et de protection.

Pour les gouvernements africains, cela signifie qu’il faut continuer à renforcer les cadres régionaux et continentaux de mobilité. Ceux-ci permettraient aux personnes de se déplacer en toute sécurité et légalement pour des raisons professionnelles, éducatives ou familiales. La migration intra-régionale est déjà l’épine dorsale de la mobilité africaine. Elle devrait le rester.

Troisièmement, l’analyse démontre que les données du DAES sont indispensables mais incomplètes. Elles excluent la migration interne, la migration sans papiers et de nombreuses formes de mobilité temporaire ou circulaire courantes en Afrique. Les réductions budgétaires imposées aux institutions internationales de collecte de données risquent d’affaiblir encore davantage l’élaboration de politiques fondées sur des données probantes.

Il est essentiel de comprendre comment les personnes se déplacent réellement – et pourquoi – pour concevoir des politiques migratoires équitables et réalistes.

The Conversation

Nadine Biehler travaille à la SWP pour le projet de recherche « Politique stratégique en matière de réfugiés et de migration », financé par le ministère fédéral allemand de la Coopération économique et du Développement (BMZ).

Emma Landmesser travaille à la SWP pour le projet de recherche « Politique stratégique en matière de réfugiés et de migration », financé par le ministère fédéral allemand de la Coopération économique et du Développement (BMZ).

Rebecca Majewski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Migration africaine : pourquoi se focaliser sur l’Europe fait rater l’essentiel – https://theconversation.com/migration-africaine-pourquoi-se-focaliser-sur-leurope-fait-rater-lessentiel-274919

Comment mesurer la précarité énergétique ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Dorothée Charlier, Maîtresse de conférences en économie de l’énergie et de l’environnement, IREGE, IAE Savoie Mont Blanc

La précarité énergétique est un phénomène bien réel, mais difficile à cerner précisément. Selon la manière dont elle est mesurée, certaines personnes peuvent ne pas être reconnues comme concernées et passer à côté des dispositifs d’aide, qu’il s’agisse de se chauffer correctement en hiver ou de se protéger de la chaleur en été.


Alors que la hausse durable des prix de l’énergie et le changement climatique accentuent les situations d’inconfort thermique, la précarité énergétique s’impose comme un enjeu social majeur en France et en Europe. Les chiffres abondent – ménages consacrant une part élevée de leurs revenus à l’énergie, ménages ayant eu froid chez eux, situations d’impayés ou de restrictions de chauffage – et nourrissent une inquiétude légitime.

Pourtant, cette visibilité croissante masque une réalité plus complexe : selon l’indicateur mobilisé, on ne désigne pas toujours les mêmes ménages comme « précaires », et une partie importante de la population demeure invisible aux yeux des politiques publiques. Alors comment bien mesurer la précarité énergétique ?

Définir la précarité énergétique : un consensus fragile

En France, la précarité énergétique fait l’objet d’une définition juridique depuis l’article 11 de la loi Grenelle II de 2010, qui la caractérise comme la difficulté pour un ménage de satisfaire ses besoins énergétiques essentiels en raison d’une combinaison de facteurs, notamment des revenus insuffisants, des logements peu performants sur le plan énergétique et des prix élevés de l’énergie.

Cette définition, reprise et largement mobilisée dans les travaux statistiques et les politiques publiques, est proche de celle retenue au niveau européen, qui insiste également sur l’incapacité des ménages à accéder à des services énergétiques essentiels à un coût abordable. Elle a le mérite de souligner le caractère fondamentalement multidimensionnel du phénomène.

Pourtant, dans la pratique, cette richesse conceptuelle est souvent réduite à un ou deux indicateurs simples, principalement fondés sur les dépenses énergétiques.

En France, un ménage est fréquemment considéré comme précaire lorsqu’il consacre plus de 8 ou 10 % de ses revenus à l’énergie et appartient aux ménages à bas revenus. Ces indicateurs présentent des avantages évidents, simplicité de calcul, comparabilité dans le temps et lisibilité pour le grand public. Mais leurs limites sont désormais bien établies. Ils mesurent les dépenses réalisées plutôt que les besoins réels, et ignorent les stratégies de restriction adoptées par de nombreux ménages en difficulté, dont les factures peuvent sembler modérées bien qu’ils subissent un inconfort élevé.

Par exemple, en France, près de 35 % des personnes déclarent avoir souffert du froid dans leur logement au cours de l’hiver 2024-2025, selon le dernier tableau de bord de l’Observatoire national de la précarité énergétique (ONPE).

QU’EST CE QUE L’ONPE ?

  • Créé en 2011 à la suite de la loi Grenelle II, l’Observatoire national de la précarité énergétique (ONPE) est une instance partenariale de référence chargée de produire une connaissance partagée, de suivre l’évolution de la précarité énergétique et d’éclairer les politiques publiques dans les domaines du logement et de la mobilité.

Dans la même édition, une proportion significative de ménages déclare avoir restreint volontairement le chauffage pour éviter des factures élevées, illustrant comment les stratégies d’adaptation peuvent rendre invisibles aux yeux des statistiques officielles des situations pourtant difficiles.

À l’inverse, certains ménages apparaissent comme précaires au regard de leurs dépenses, alors même qu’ils vivent dans des logements confortables mais énergivores, sans subir de privations. Il s’agit notamment de ménages aux revenus relativement élevés, vivant dans des logements gourmands en énergie pour lesquels une facture importante reste compatible avec le niveau de vie.

Plus généralement, ces situations rappellent que les indicateurs fondés sur des seuils, qu’il s’agisse de dépenses ou de température intérieure, sont imparfaits : une même température peut être vécue comme acceptable par certains, par choix ou par habitude, et comme inconfortable par d’autres, selon les préférences, l’âge ou l’état de santé.

Pour dépasser les limites des indicateurs fondés sur les dépenses, les indicateurs dits « subjectifs » ont progressivement pris de l’importance. Ils reposent sur le ressenti des ménages et sur des situations concrètes telles que le fait d’avoir eu froid chez soi, d’être en situation d’impayés ou de vivre dans un logement humide ou dégradé.

Leur principal avantage est de rendre visibles des formes de privation réelle, indépendamment du niveau de dépenses observé, et de capter des dimensions invisibles dans les données comptables, comme l’inconfort, le stress ou les effets sur la santé. Toutefois, ces indicateurs présentent eux aussi des limites, car les réponses dépendent fortement des normes sociales, des attentes individuelles et de la capacité à exprimer une difficulté, ce qui peut conduire à des sous ou sur déclarations selon les franges de la population.

Consciente de ces enjeux, la France a donc fait le choix de ne pas s’appuyer sur un indicateur unique, mais sur un panier d’indicateurs, à l’image du tableau de bord de l’ONPE. Celui-ci combine des indicateurs de dépenses, de restrictions, de ressenti et d’impayés, reconnaissant ainsi le caractère multidimensionnel de la précarité énergétique. Cette approche constitue un progrès important, mais elle soulève une difficulté persistante : comment interpréter simultanément ces signaux et les traduire en décisions opérationnelles lorsque les ménages ne sont concernés que par certaines dimensions et pas par d’autres ?

Le piège du binaire : une vision trop rigide d’un phénomène continu

Être précaire ou ne pas l’être ? La plupart des indicateurs actuels reposent sur une logique binaire : un ménage est classé soit comme précaire, soit comme non précaire, en fonction du dépassement d’un seuil. Cette approche est rassurante, car elle permet de compter, de comparer, de cibler. Mais elle repose sur une hypothèse implicite discutable : celle d’une frontière nette entre les ménages « en difficulté » et les autres.

Or, la réalité est bien différente. La précarité énergétique est un processus, non un état figé. Elle peut être transitoire, s’aggraver progressivement par exemple avec la hausse des prix de l’énergie, ou au contraire être contenue par des stratégies d’adaptation. De nombreux ménages se situent dans une zone intermédiaire : ils ne remplissent pas les critères statistiques de la précarité, mais ils vivent sous une contrainte permanente, exposés au moindre choc.

C’est dans ce contexte qu’émerge la notion de vulnérabilité énergétique. Elle ne désigne pas une situation actuelle de privation, mais un risque de basculer dans la précarité à la suite d’un événement : hausse des prix, perte de revenus, problème de santé, épisode climatique extrême. Cette approche permet de dépasser la logique du « tout ou rien » et de s’intéresser aux trajectoires des ménages. Elle met en lumière une population souvent invisible dans les statistiques classiques, mais pourtant essentielle à considérer si l’on veut prévenir plutôt que réparer.

L’importance des choix de mesure apparaît nettement lorsque l’on considère les ménages les plus modestes : en 2022, parmi les 10 % les plus pauvres de la population, près de 69 % des ménages seraient en situation de précarité énergétique en l’absence à la fois du bouclier tarifaire et du chèque énergie. Cette proportion tombe à 62 % avec le seul bouclier tarifaire, puis à environ 43 % lorsque le bouclier et les chèques énergie sont pris en compte, illustrant combien les dispositifs publics et les conventions de mesure modifient l’ampleur statistique du phénomène.

Mesurer autrement : apports des approches multidimensionnelles

Une première manière de renouveler la mesure de la précarité énergétique consiste donc à recourir à des indicateurs « dits » composites. L’idée est de ne plus se limiter à un seul critère, mais de regrouper plusieurs dimensions du problème dans un indicateur unique. Celui-ci peut par exemple prendre en compte à la fois le niveau de revenu des ménages, la qualité énergétique de leur logement, leurs difficultés à payer les factures, les restrictions de chauffage ou encore l’inconfort thermique ressenti.

Cette approche se distingue des méthodes qui juxtaposent plusieurs indicateurs séparés, comme celles utilisées par l’ONPE. Ici, les différentes dimensions de la précarité énergétique sont combinées dans un même outil, ce qui permet d’avoir une vision plus globale des situations.

Inspirée des travaux sur la pauvreté multidimensionnelle, cette méthode aide à mieux comparer les ménages entre eux et à identifier plus finement ceux qui sont les plus exposés.

L’INDICE DE PAUVRETÉ MULTIDIMENSIONNELLE

  • Mesurer la pauvreté avec un seul indice, par exemple le revenu, présente un risque : celui de n’avoir qu’une image partielle du phénomène. Pour ne pas invisibiliser certaines populations qui subissent ce fléau, l’indice de pauvreté multidimensionnelle, créé à l’Université d’Oxford en 2010 et utilisé dès cette année-là par le Programme des Nations unies pour le développement (PNUD), compile dix indices : la mortalité infantile, la nutrition, les années de scolarité, la sortie de scolarité, l’électricité, l’eau potable, les sanitaires, le sol de l’habitat, le combustible utilisé pour cuisiner, les biens mobiliers.

Par exemple, un ménage aux revenus modestes vivant dans un logement mal isolé, qui limite fortement son chauffage pour contenir ses factures et déclare un inconfort thermique, peut ne pas dépasser individuellement les seuils de dépenses ou de température retenus par les indicateurs classiques, mais apparaître clairement comme précaire lorsqu’on combine ces différentes dimensions au sein d’un indicateur composite.

Mais ces indicateurs ne sont pas sans limites. Ils reposent sur des choix normatifs, parfois peu visibles, notamment sur l’importance accordée à chaque dimension. Par exemple, le poids accordé aux dépenses énergétiques par rapport à l’inconfort thermique ou à la qualité du logement peut conduire à classer différemment deux ménages aux situations pourtant proches, selon que l’on privilégie une contrainte budgétaire, une privation ressentie ou une vulnérabilité structurelle. Ces choix donc restent en partie arbitraires et peuvent limiter l’appropriation de ces indicateurs par les acteurs publics et la compréhension du phénomène par le grand public.

Une autre manière d’aborder la précarité énergétique, de plus en plus utilisée en sciences sociales, consiste à recourir à des méthodes de classification statistique. Leur principe est simple : au lieu de décider à l’avance à partir de quel seuil un ménage est considéré comme « précaire », ces méthodes commencent par regrouper les ménages qui se ressemblent, en tenant compte simultanément de plusieurs dimensions de leur situation.

Concrètement, les ménages sont classés en fonction de caractéristiques observées comme le type de logement, le niveau des dépenses d’énergie, les difficultés de paiement, les restrictions de chauffage ou encore l’inconfort thermique. Les méthodes de classification rassemblent ainsi des personnes aux profils proches, sans imposer au préalable de seuils arbitraires sur chacun de ces indicateurs.

Ce n’est qu’ensuite que l’on interprète les groupes obtenus. On observe alors qu’ils correspondent assez clairement à des situations distinctes : des ménages sans difficulté particulière, des ménages vulnérables, et des ménages en situation de précarité énergétique avérée. Ces groupes présentent non seulement des points communs sur les critères utilisés pour les classer, mais aussi sur d’autres caractéristiques sociales ou économiques, comme la composition familiale ou le type de territoire.

Ces méthodes permettent ainsi de mieux comprendre les différentes formes de précarité énergétique, et de dépasser une approche trop rigide fondée uniquement sur des seuils souvent arbitraires.

Pourquoi mesurer la précarité énergétique restera toujours difficile

Même avec des outils plus sophistiqués, mesurer la précarité énergétique restera un exercice délicat. Les besoins énergétiques varient selon le climat, la composition du ménage, l’état de santé, l’âge, ou encore les normes culturelles. Ce qui constitue un inconfort pour certains peut être perçu comme acceptable pour d’autres.

Les ménages en difficulté effectuent souvent des arbitrages complexes entre différentes dépenses essentielles : se chauffer, se nourrir, se déplacer, se soigner. Ces arbitrages sont difficiles à observer dans les données et échappent en grande partie aux indicateurs traditionnels.

Plutôt que de chercher une mesure unique et définitive, l’enjeu est donc de construire des outils capables d’éclairer la diversité des situations et des trajectoires. Dans un contexte de transition énergétique et de dérèglement climatique, mieux mesurer la précarité énergétique devient moins une question de précision statistique qu’une nécessité pour anticiper, prévenir et adapter les politiques publiques.

The Conversation

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. Comment mesurer la précarité énergétique ? – https://theconversation.com/comment-mesurer-la-precarite-energetique-273860

The EU-India agreement is huge – and it illustrates the changing role of trade in a fractured world order

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sangeeta Khorana, Professor of International Trade Policy, Aston University

The recently concluded EU-India free trade agreement is notable for the huge scale and ambition of the deal. Labelled the “mother of all deals” by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, it comes as India has overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Bilateral trade in goods and services between the EU and India is already worth €180 billion (£155 billion). The agreement aims to double EU exports to India by 2032 and create a free-trade area representing around a quarter of the world’s population (nearly two billion people). This would also cover about 25% of the world’s GDP.

At this point in history, the world’s multilateral trading system is under threat from tariffs and geopolitical tensions. But this agreement offers a clear example that the era of free trade is not over.

Rather, it demonstrates how countries are adapting to new global realities to liberalise trade (that is, remove barriers). Instead of steering away from free trade, countries are becoming selective and seeking bilateral arrangements with strategic partners. The UK signed its own trade agreement with India in July 2025.




Read more:
UK’s India trade deal offers wider access to a surging economy – and could make food imports cheaper


Traditionally, a free trade agreement would have a set of rules for how two or more countries must treat one another when importing, exporting, investing or doing any other business together.

But to view the EU-India trade agreement through the lens of classical free trade would be misleading. Trade agreements of the 1990s and early 2000s such as Nafta and the EU, were driven mainly by tariff reductions and efficiency gains. The EU-India deal on the other hand has been shaped by shifting geopolitical pressures and concerns about resilience in the face of trade shocks or other crises.

Long time in the making

Trade talks between the EU and India began in 2007 but negotiations gained momentum in 2025 amid renewed tariff threats from the United States under Donald Trump’s second administration.

This deepened trade imbalances between the EU and China due to Beijing’s drive to be more self-reliant and employ export controls. It also raised concerns about the resilience of global supply chains. The EU-India Trade and Technology Council was set up in 2023, modelled on the EU-US framework, and highlights how modern trade agreements can bundle economic, technological and strategic objectives together.

At a time when global trade has become increasingly protectionist and with geopolitical rivalry growing, this agreement provides an opportunity to recalibrate trade alignment. It is also a chance to reshape trade architecture while bolstering supply chain resilience across Asia, Europe and the Atlantic.

For the EU, the deal is a central pillar of its diversification strategy. There was an urgent need for the bloc to reach an agreement with India in order to be less dependent on China, its largest trade partner.

In 2024, more than 21% of the EU’s imports came from China. Meanwhile, China bought only 8.3% of the bloc’s exports. For the EU, this has resulted in a €304 billion (£264 billion) trade deficit with China.

So the EU-India deal provides an opportunity for the EU to reduce its excessive dependence on China. It’s also a chance to remove some of the risk from its supply chains and secure access to India’s fast-growing consumer market. This should offer European firms growth opportunities in Asia at a time when EU domestic demand is sluggish and flat.

The agreement will also make it easier for EU firms to source suppliers quickly and build alternative manufacturing bases when supply chains are threatened. India’s location in the Indo-Pacific is of strategic interest for the EU due to the growing interdependence and the importance of maritime supply chains. This also makes India a key partner against the uncertainty of the bloc’s future relations with the US.

For India, the agreement guarantees market access to Indian firms at a time of rising trade uncertainty – especially after its relations with the US were damaged following Trump’s threat of 500% tariffs.

male and female indian garment producers sitting working at their sewing machines in a factory.
The agreement should provide a reliable trading partner for Indian garment producers.
PradeepGaurs/Shutterstock

The EU-India deal will eliminate tariffs on textiles and apparel, and when it comes into force it will give Indian garment-producers a reliable trading partner. The deal will allow European brands, such as Zara and H&M, to diversify away from China towards Indian manufacturing hubs. It is estimated costs here could be lower as the deal will allow garments to be zero-tariff.

The pharmaceuticals sector also offers an opportunity for India. While EU tariffs are already low, the deal aims to simplify regulation and to achieve stronger intellectual property frameworks. This could integrate Indian generic drug producers into Europe’s healthcare supply chains.

The scope of the agreement extends well beyond goods, services and investment. Plans to co-operate on clean energy aligns Europe’s Green Deal (the bloc’s framework for achieving net zero) with India’s target of producing 500 gigawatts of renewable capacity by 2030. This should open up avenues for joint leadership in solar, wind, grids and green hydrogen.

The EU-India deal neither marks a return to the free trade orthodoxy of an earlier age nor signals the end of free trade in today’s fractured global order. Rather, it highlights how trade has evolved into a tool for achieving geopolitical objectives. The deal also shows that countries are opening their markets – selectively and after careful deliberations. Trade agreements are evolving: increasingly they are shaped not only by market access considerations, but also by economic security.

The Conversation

Sangeeta Khorana works on issues related to free trade agreements. She has received funding from the ESRC, Commonwealth Secretariat, EU projects, IADB, among others.

ref. The EU-India agreement is huge – and it illustrates the changing role of trade in a fractured world order – https://theconversation.com/the-eu-india-agreement-is-huge-and-it-illustrates-the-changing-role-of-trade-in-a-fractured-world-order-275136